Archive for the 'VA-09' Category

Facing an ethics probe, GOP Rep. Buyer retires

Published
by
Taniel
on January 29, 2010
in IN-04, NY-01 and VA-09
. 7 Comments

In a surprise move, Indiana’s 51-year old Rep. Steve Buyer announced today that he would not seek re-election in November. Best known as one of the 13 House managers of Clinton’s impeachment trial, Buyer is the ranking Republican on the Veterans Affairs Committee. He was first elected in 1993, which explains why he has a lot of seniority at a relatively young age.

In an emotional press conference, Buyer explained that his wife, whom he has known since 3rd grade, had just been diagnosed with an incurable disease.

His retirement comes at a time Buyer is facing probes by the Office of Congressional Ethics and the IRS over The Frontier Foundation, a scholarship fund he founded in 2003. The Indianapolis Star reported this fall that the fund had yet to award a single scholarship but that it ha been used to finance the congressman’s golf outings with wealthy donors at places like the Bahamas and Disney World.

Further questions were raised about whether Buyer was using the Foundation to trade legislative assistance for personal favors when it was discovered that the drug lobby group PhRMA had not only donated hundreds of thousands to Buyer’s foundation but had also hired Ryan Buyer, the congressman’s son and a director of the foundation. As you would expect, Rep. Buyer sits on the House Energy Subcommittee on Health.

“No good deed goes unpunished, that’s how I feel at the moment,” Buyer answered at the time, but the fact that his committee had failed to give out a single scholarship in six years led the IRS to open a probe into whether The Frontier Foundation mischaracterizes itself to benefit from a favorable tax status. In investigators’ cross hair, Buyer cut a CBS interview short in November when he proved unable to answer journalists’ questions and he was recently profiled on CNN.

Best known as one of the 13 House managers of Clinton’s impeachment trial, Buyer is the ranking Republican on the Veterans Affairs Committee; he also attracted attention by calling for a nuclear attack on Afghanistan.

Buyer is the 15th Republican to announce he will not seek re-election, a number that is expected to grow perhaps within hours as Rep. John Boozman is preparing to announce a Senate run in Arkansas.

Yet, Buyer’s retirement gives Democrats little to no opening: IN-04 is Indiana’s second most Republican seat, which is saying a lot since the state is undeniably leans conservative. In 2004, George W. Bush got 69% of the vote; in 2008, Obama dramatically cut the margin but he still lost 56% to 43%. Furthermore, Indiana is not one of those GOP-voting states in which Democrats are dominant at the local level, so Republicans have a stronger bench to choose from.

Buyer was accompanied at his press conference by state Senator Brandt Hershman; while Hershman did not say anything, the significance of his presence was unmistakable. Former State Rep. Matt Whetstone has said he is interested in running. Another politician who could jump in is Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman. At the moment, I have seen no Democrat’s name mentioned. The filing deadline is coming up in less than three weeks, so the many Republicans have little time to make a decision and the DCCC has just as little time to find someone to field.

VA-09, NY-01: Strike two Democrats off the retirement list

One name we keep hearing as a potential Democratic retiree is Rep. Rick Boucher, a 63-year old who has represented VA-09 for 18 years. An open seat would be a catastrophe for Democrats: the district voted for John McCain by 19%. Yet, the Virginian released a statement yesterday saying he is “planning to seek reelection.” He continued: “I have given no consideration to retiring. While I never make political announcements this early in the year, due to the press inquires we are receiving, it is time to remove any doubt anyone has about my intentions.”

The statement appears worded in such a way that Boucher can later justify a retirement (he finally got around to considering it, his intentions changed); the filing deadline is not for another three months, which would leave him time to backtrack; and Dennis Moore and Marion Berry had also said they would run. Yet, we’re getting late enough in the cycle that we can start trusting such declarations can be trusted - especially since they come in a statement his office chose to release rather than in off-the-cuff remarks, as was the case with Berry.

Boucher might also be affirming his intentions loud and clear to ensure potential Republican challengers don’t get in the race thinking he is heading out. As I wrote about earlier this month, VA-9 is one district in which the NRCC has suffered recruitment failures. They’re now hoping to convince State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, but at the moment VA-9 is not vulnerable.

Another Democrat who confirmed he would run is 59-year old Rep. Tim Bishop (NY-01), who said he “sure as hell” isn’t retiring. While there’s been nowhere near as much speculation surrounding him as there has been around Boucher, but at this point any incumbent from a marginal district who clarifies his plans is worth pointing out.

NRCC rolls out favorable Pennsylvania news

Published
by
Taniel
on January 11, 2010
in IN-09, PA-06, PA-08, PA-17 and VA-09
. 25 Comments

Mike Sodrel must really have liked serving in the House in 2005 and 2006. This week, he announced that he would seek yet another rematch against Rep. Baron Hill. This will be the two men’s fifth consecutive match-up; Hill won in 2002, lost in 2004, reclaimed his seat back in 2006 and defended it in 2008. Sodrel’s entry certainly puts IN-09 on the map: he has the network and electoral experience to  benefit from a favorable environment just as he did in 2004.

That said, Sodrel is one Republican recruit who isn’t make Democrats shake in their boots. While rematches are sometimes successful, voters are often reluctant to reconsider a decision they’ve already made once; that’s all the more the case when they’ve had to make it four times already! In 2008, Hill crushed 58% to 38%; his prior largest margin of victory had been 5%. While a lot of that is due to Barack Obama’s unexpected ability to transform Indiana politics, there’s no question that district voters no longer seem open to entertaining the thought of backing Sodrel; that would make it hard for him to take advantage of a potential red wave. In further proof of Sodrel’s diminished stock, he will face his first contested primary in eight years: attorney Todd Young has been running since early 2009, and he has mounted a credible enough campaign to wrestle the nomination from Sodrel.

Sodrel might not make IN-09 a GOP success story, but over the past few days the NRCC have managed to expand the map yet again, putting in play two PA districts (PA-08, PA-17) while solidifying their chances in a third (PA-06).

In PA-08, Rep. Patrick Murphy did not appear to have much to fear in 2010: His district voted for John Kerry (albeit only by 3%) and backed Obama by 9% in 2008. Certainly not unwinnable by the GOP, but the party certainly has more promising districts to go after next year. Yet, the congressman Murphy defeated back in 2006 - former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick - just announced he will be running for his old job; he lost by just 1,521 votes that year. The major caveat to Fitzpatrick’s candidacy is that he only represented the district for one term. In fact, Fitzpatrick won his only congressional race in bizarre circumstances: longtime Rep. Greenwood announced he was dropping out after the primary, so Democrats weren’t able to replace the sacrificial lamb they had already nominated which allowed Fitzpatrick to score an easier victory than he should have given the district’s demographics. Despite the fact that Fitzpatrick won’t be able to rely on a long relationship with district voters, he is a rare Republican who can at least put the district on the map.

In PA-17, the NRCC managed to recruit a top candidate who just two months ago had said he was “99% certain” not to run, yet another sign that Republicans are increasingly confident that they can score great gains in this fall: This sets up 9-term Blue Dog Rep. Tim Holden’s first competitive race since he unexpectedly survived a redistricting-induced fight against a fellow incumbent back in 2002. Holden was not supposed to win that race, by which I mean that PA-17 was drawn to ensure GOP Rep. George Gekas’s re-election; it’s a conservative district that gave Bush a 16% victory in 2004 and McCain a 3% victory in 2008. Can state Senator Dave Argall succeed in picking-up the district Gekas failed to hold? Holden’s stature leaves him as the clear favorite, but there is no question that the DCCC will have to seriously sweat it out for yet another longtime incumbent.

In PA-06, finally, the NRCC has successfully cleared one of the obstacles to Rep. Jim Gerlach’s road to the GOP nomination: After initially announcing that he would stick to the race and blasting Gerlach for treating the district as a “consolation prize,” Rep. Curt Schroder announced today that he was dropping out. The anguished statement he released to explain his decision cites as a main reason the financial difficulties he was sure to face; the statement also clears any ambiguity there might have been about Schroeder’s ideological profile: he cites former Reps. Bob Walker and Pat Toomey (both known as staunch conservatives) as people he “highly respects,” which would have made for an interesting general election campaign in a district Obama won by 17%.

With Schroder’s out, Gerlach’s only obstacle to the Republican nomination (and to Democratic hopes that they won’t have to face the incumbent in November) is businessman Steven Welch, who could continue relying on his personal fortune to overcome the financial challenge of facing an incumbent. Before settling on any plan, will Welch at least check in with the Club for Growth about their interest in opposing Gerlach?

For Democrats to receive some good news tonight, let’s end this post in southwestern Virginia, as the NRCC has suffered an important recruitment blow in VA-09: In their efforts to expand the map and to target Rep. Rick Boucher in a district that gave McCain a 19% victory, Republicans had been heavily courting state Delegate Terry Kilgore. (You’ll probably recognize his last name, as he is the brother of the GOP’s 2005 gubernatorial candidate, who led for most of the race before losing to Kaine.) Yet, Kilgore announced last week that he would not challenge Boucher, which is a relief for the 14-term incumbent. Republicans are now courting state Sen. William Wampler, though he doesn’t appear likely to get in. As we learned in PA-17, the NRCC won’t rest until the filing deadline has passed, but VA-9 is shaping to be one conservative district the GOP won’t be able to put on the map.

In aftermath of cap-and-trade vote, NRCC targets 14 other Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2009
in AR-02, CO-04, FL-08, IA-01, IL-11, IN-09, MO-04, NM-02, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, TN-06, VA-05 and VA-09
. 2 Comments

As the House took a high-profile and controversial vote last Friday, we knew what was coming: Attack ads! While many vulnerable Democrats voted against the Waxman-Markey, the NRCC wasted no time going after those who supported it: A new wave of ads and robo-calls targets 14 Democrats who voted for cap-and-trade despite representing red-leaning districts.

Only one Democrat earns the right to be targeted by a TV spot: Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05), an obvious Democratic target whose re-election bid is rated a toss-up in my ratings. The ad starts with footage of Obama saying that his cap-and-trade proposal will result in skyrocketing energy prices and concludes by hitting Perriello for his party loyalty. “Tom Perriello’s voting with Obama and with Pelosi over and over. Call Perriello. Tell him he was wrong to vote for the Pelosi energy tax,” says the narrator:

The 13 other Democrats are being targeted with a radio ad. Here’s the version running against Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02):

The NRCC has two obvious goals. First, drive down the popularity of these incumbents to endanger their 2010 re-election bid. At least eight of these Democrats are considered highly vulnerable; in 2008, they prevailed by winning the support of voters who also chose McCain and the GOP’s priority is to reconquer these ticket-splitter.

Second, scare these Democrats into switching their vote and opposing cap-and-trade if the legislation returns to the House in the form of a conference report. Last week, Waxman-Markey passed by a narrow 219 to 212 margin so all it would take is for 4 representatives to change their mind for the bill to be killed; pressuring those supportive Democrats who represent the most conservative districts is the surest way for the GOP to get there.

Of course, any backlash these Democrats might endure will only be heightened by the party’s reluctance to fully stand behind Waxman-Markey. The narrow margin by which the bill passed and the dozens of Democrats who voted “no” have done as much to make the bill look controversial as anything the NRCC could say. By contrast, legislation that passes on a 245-186 vote will be covered differently by the press and won’t be as likely to become electorally explosive.

Furthermore, it would be silly for these 14 Democrats think that they would suddenly put the cap-and-trade issue behind them if they oppose an eventual conference report: The NRCC would certainly not hold back from pointing out that they voted in favor of initial passage, and such congressmen would only be weighed down by the need to explain their change of heart. Yet, while a flip-flop might be unlikely, there is no doubt that this is what the GOP is aiming at.

How else to explain the presence on this list of Rick Boucher (VA-09), Bart Gordon (TN-06) and Ike Skelton (MO-04)? (The NRCC is running radio against all three.) While all represent districts that gave McCain more than 59% of the vote, they are veteran congressmen elected in 1982, 1984 and 1976, respectively. They are never described as vulnerable and they very rarely show up on such lists. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Baron Hill (IN-09): He is not expected to face a competitive race in 2010 but his conservative voting record makes him a potential vote-switcher.

(In February, the NRCC ran radio ads attacking Gordon and Skelton for supporting the stimulus but the ads were released before the House voted on the conference report; neither flip-flopped on that second vote.)

Another surprise appearance on this list is Bruce Braley (IA-01), a relatively liberal Democrat who represents the only clearly Democratic district of the list: IA-01 went for Gore and Kerry and gave Obama 58% of the vote, so I’m not sure what the NRCC is trying to do here. (He was also included among the targets of those February stimulus ads.)

Besides these five Democrats, the other targeted congressmen are all to some extent vulnerable: John Boccieri (OH-16), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Vic Snyder (AR-02), Zack Space (OH-18) and Harry Teague (NM-02). (I’ve talked enough about these races not to launch in a detailed analysis now, but you can check here for more race-specific information.)

There are some notable absences, like Frank Kratovil (MD-01) and Steve Driehaus (OH-01), but the NRCC is going after at least one other Democrat - Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - by launching robocalls on another topic altogether: NASA. Their attack is rather disingenuous since Kosmas voted against the appropriations bill that cut millions from NASA funding; the GOP circumvents that little problem and attacks her nonetheless for not prevent[ing] that cut.”

(For those more interested in the legislative battle behind Friday’s vote, Politico published an interesting story on Nancy Pelosi’s whip efforts.)

In other House news, the GOP landed a top contender in NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed announced he would take on Rep. Eric Massa, who defeated a Republican incumbent last fall. While Corning is too small a city to make Reed that threatening a candidate (its population hovers around 10,000), his political experience and the NRCC’s enthusiasm for his candidacy make him a very credible challenger. As most of the GOP’s 2010 candidates are likely to do, Reed emphasized fiscal issues and his concern for “irresponsible deficit spending.” Note that the NRCC’s preferred candidate was Assemblyman Brian Kolb, but Kolb decided not to run when he became the state Assembly’s Minority Leader; other Republicans could still jump in, including a pair of state Senators.