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Category Archive for ‘Uncategorized’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category


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What to look for in Election Night 2009

Nearly a year has passed since Election Night 2008, and here we are again for a less dramatic but still quite thrilling resolution to the 2009 cycle.

The big five: The races that will determine tomorrow’s headlines

Starting tonight, the results in Virginia’s gubernatorial race, New Jersey’s gubernatorial race and the special election in NY-23 will be over-analyzed for any clue as to what they might reveal about the 2010 midterms. Recent history and the chaotic nature of two of these contests suggest we shouldn’t read too much into the results, but there’s no no escaping it. A Republican sweep, and we’ll get an avalanche of stories about how the White House is in trouble; a good night for Democrats, and the media will go on about the GOP’s continued woes.

Since we know that Virginia is all but lost for Creigh Deeds, what does constitute a good night for Democrats? Given the latest polls, for Corzine and Owens to both prevail tonight would be considered an excellent night by most Democrats; even if they were to prevail in only one, it would come as a relief. Remember that Democrats weren’t even supposed to be competitive in these two contests: Incumbents with Corzine’s approval rating rarely win re-election, while the notoriety and experience gap between Owens and Scozzafava was so huge it was hard to see the former in contention.

It’s Virginia that was expected to host the fall’s all-out battle, and Democrats had a shot to prove the Old Dominion had swung blue for good. Instead, McDonnell opened a wide lead and barely ever looked back. If Deeds pulls off a comeback, it would register among the most stunning upsets in recent history - and one of the most incomprehensible, given how weak a campaign he ran. Whatever else happens tonight, then, Republicans should have a meaningful reason to celebrate: They’ve put a stop to Virginia rapid drift towards the Democratic column.

Complicating this analysis of the night’s partisan significance, of course, is the GOP’s rift in NY-23: If Hoffman pulls it off tonight, I wonder how many Republicans will be more nervous than happy and how many Democrats will be more excited than disappointed. Such a third-party victory could have huge repercussions on conservative activism in 2010. I’m not sure the GOP establishment is ready to face that, while Democrats would love nothing more than have Crist and Ayotte spend the next 9 months fighting the Club for Growth.

The night’s other major election - Maine’s referendum on gay marriage - does not enter in these partisan calculations, since national Democrats have done their best not to get involved. But the stakes are very high. A year after California’s Prop 8, it’s an opportunity for gay rights activists to finally show they can get public opinion on their side. Yet, this is an off-year race, which could mean an electorate with a higher share of old people.

It’s still early in the afternoon, but we are already getting a turnout indication in Maine - and it’s good news for progressives: The state’s Secretary of State told Ben Smith that turnout is far higher than he expected, and that it might top 50%. If that projection holds, it means that people over 65 will probably not make up a disproportionate share of voters (certainly not as disproportionate as in that recent PPP poll), which should help the marriage law.

Completing the list of the “Big 5″ races is New York’s mayoral contest. Mike Bloomberg is on track for an easy win based on every poll that’s been released: It pays to spend more than $120 million of your own money while your opponent is struggling to raise any money at all. That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on the results to see if there might be a repeat of September’s anti-term limit backlash.

Many under-the-radar races

One contest that has attracted very little attention is a special election in CA-10, a heavily Democratic district that gave Obama 65% of the vote. Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is considered such a heavy favorite that neither party has made any move. A SUSA poll last month did find Garamendi leading, but his margin was an underwhelming 10%.

In Virginia, the GOP will try to ride McDonnell’s momentum in order to expand its majority in the House of Delegates. In New Jersey, Democrats are in danger of losing seats in the Assembly, though they have a big enough majority that they should remain in control.

In Washington, a referendum to ratify a law creating domestic partnerships might comfort progressives if Maine rejects gay marriage. The other referendum is an anti-tax initiative that looks more likely than not to fail.

Finally, we have a number of mayoral races. First is Charlotte: The city might lean blue, but it’s had a GOP mayor for two decades. In an open race, Republican councilman John Lassiter and Democratic councilman Anthony Foxx are locked in a dead heat. One reason this race matters nationally is that the position is a springboard for statewide races: Harvey Gantt twice challenged Jesse Helms (which led to one of the ugliest Senate races in recent history) while Pat McCrory was considered as strong a gubernatorial candidate as the GOP could find last year.

NC is also hosting a competitive mayoral race in Chapel Hill, which might lead to the election of an openly gay mayor. In Atlanta, it could be as clear a sign of changes in the urban population as any if councilwoman Mary Norwood became the city’s first non African-American mayor in 40 years; the mayoral race could go to a runoff. In Boston, Thomas Menino is going for his fifth term; while he has typically coasted to re-election, he is locked in an usually competitive race. Republicans, finally, are looking to conquer Vancouver, WA and Stamford, CT.

In short: It might not be the excitement of Election Night 2008, but there’s plenty to look forward to. Here’s a cheat sheet of poll closing times:

7pm ET

  • Georgia: Atlanta’s mayoral race
  • Virginia: races for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and state legislature

7:30pm ET

  • North Carolina: Charlotte’s mayoral election

8pm ET

  • Maine: Question 1 (gay marriage)
  • New Jersey: races for Governor and state legislature

9pm ET

  • New York: NY-23 (special election), New York City’s mayoral election

11pm ET

  • California: CA-10 (special election)
  • Washington: R-71 (domestic partnerships) and I-1033 (anti-tax initiative)

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Poll watch: Corzine’s rise, gay rights’ strong support and Specter with dismal re-elect

6 days to go: Corzine grabs significant lead while Deeds sinks

If PPP and Rasmussen had brought some worrisome news to Jon Corzine’s camp yesterday, today’s Quinnipiac poll all but takes cares of their worries. The reputable pollster, which has been polling the contest monthly since August 2008, finds Corzine ahead for the first time since last November - and we’re not talking about a tiny edge: Corzine leads 43% to 38%, outside of the poll’s margin of error. Chris Daggett is at 13%.

If we forget about the recent Suffolk poll’s bizarre results, this is the largest lead Corzine has enjoyed since the first week of January. What is just as important as the margin of his advantage is the level of support he reaches: Corzine is finally able to rise above the 42% ceiling he’s been stuck under for months, with Rasmussen and Quinnipiac now both showing him at 43%. That doesn’t look like much but it should be enough for him to clinch victory as long as Daggett stays in the 12%-14% range.

One caveat: Quinnipiac’s poll was conducted from the 20th to the 26th, so it’s more dated than the two surveys released yesterday (Rasmussen’s was conducted on the 26th only, PPP’s from the 23rd to the 26th). That period corresponds to the intensification of Chris Christie’s attacks against Daggett, and both PPP and Rasmussen found that those attacks were succeeding in hurting the independent and by extension helping the Republican. Quinnipiac has Daggett still more popular than not (21-16), so we shall see what polls say in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Virginia polls are all finding the same result: Bill McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds by double-digits. The SUSA poll that had him up 19% two weeks ago looked like an outlier at first, but it doesn’t look far-fetched anymore. At this point, I’ll do little else than relay the latest numbers. First, Rasmussen has McDonnell up 54% to 41%; the Republican’s favorability rating is so high (62/30) you wouldn’t guess he just went through a heated campaign. Second, Virginia Commonwealth University has McDonnell crushing Deeds, 54% to 36%.

6 days to go, and good news for gay rights in Maine and Washington

Most surveys of Maine’ have found the slightest of edges for the “no” - certainly nothing large enough to reassure gay rights defenders that same-sex marriage will be upheld. (Many California polls had Prop 8 failing in the run-up to the 2008 vote.) But a poll released a few days ago by Pan Atlantic SMS found the largest lead yet for the pro-gay marriage vote: 53% to 42%. That’s a lot of undecided voters for gay marriage opponents to convince, especially given that those who make up their mind at the last minute tend to break towards the “no” in referendum votes.

But that rule of thumb is not that useful for high-profile issues like this one. While it is a cliche to say that an election comes down to turnout, this is one contest in which it is no overstatement: This referendum is the highest-profile vote on Maine’s ballot, so it’s the main issue that will drive voters to the polls. So which group is most motivated by gay marriage will have an outsized importance - and this is one metric on which social conservatives have tended to have an edge.

Another important gay rights vote is occurring in Washington State, which is set to vote on a referendum to establish expanded domestic partnerships (R-71). Two new surveys released this week find the “yes” in the lead: The University of Washington has it easily passing (57% to 38%) while SUSA finds a tighter margin (50% to 43%, with the 40% of respondents who’ve already voted approving partnerships 53% to 42%). Here again, the gay rights-position is favored going into next week’s vote, but referendums are hard enough to poll that this could go both ways.

Note that the White House has ignored gay rights activists’ pleas to take any stance on either states’ votes - let alone an active one.

2010: Worrisome numbers for Specter and Strickland

By now, we are used to seeing Arlen Specter suffering from ugly numbers but it’s hard to overstate how dismal it is for such a longtime incumbent’s re-elect to stand at 23%; 66% of respondents in a new Franklin & Marshall poll say it’s time for something new. His favorability rating (28/46) is barely better.

It’s only because his rival are so little-known (only 26% have an opinion of Toomey, 16% of Sestak) that he manages to still lead direct match-ups. And given the wide name recognition gap, his 33-31 edge over Toomey and his 30-18 lead over Sestak isn’t impressive, especially when you consider that Sestak has closed the gap by 14% since F&M’s prior poll. Sestak does trail Toomey 28% to 20%, but that survey has such a huge number of undecided respondents that it’s not worth discussing much. (Don’t forget that two mid-October polls had Sestak over-performing Specter in the general election.)

Another state, another endangered incumbent: A University of Cincinnati poll finds Ohio Governor Ted Strickland holding on to a 49% to 46% edge against former Rep. John Kasich; among all registered voters, the lead is smaller still (48-47). We haven’t heard that much about this contest, mostly because there hasn’t been much primary or recruitment drama on the side of the challenging party (Kasich signaled he’d get in the race early, and his hold on the nomination hasn’t been contested) but it’s sure to be one of the year’s highest-stake battles.


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Coming up today

Besides fascinating match-ups at the French Open, two important electoral events are set to take place in coming hours:

  1. At 10am ET, the Minnesota Supreme Court will hold its hearing on the Coleman-Franken race: Watch live here. While the Justices will not issue a decision today, we could get hint as to where they are leaning from their questioning.
  2. At 11am ET, Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn will announce his 2010 plans.

I’ll cover these events as they develop (well, not the tennis part). And I’ll also do my best to finish my next round of Senate rankings ASAP, hopefully by late this week.


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First Senate rankings: Republicans once again stuck in defense

Over the past two cycles, Republicans lost 13 Senate seats (14 if Al Franken emerges victorious in Minnesota). And the GOP’s Senate nightmare is set to continue for the third cycle in a row: 2004 was a great year for Senate Republicans, so they have many more vulnerable seats to defend in 2010.

No matter what the political environment will be in two years, Republicans are looking to spend yet another cycle playing defense and Democrats are more likely than not to gain the one or two seats they will need to finally achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

The ramifications of Barack Obama’s victory have given the GOP new life in Delaware, Colorado, Illinois and New York, but that cannot obscure this simple statistic: Of the cycle’s 10 most vulnerable Senate seats, only two are currently in Democratic hands. Those are tough numbers for Republicans to face given how few seats they have already been left with.

That said, a number of Dem-held seats could become competitive under the right circumstances, and a tremendous recruiting job on the part of the NRSC would allow Republicans play offense. They have no room for error: They will need Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, John Hoeven in North Dakota, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Mike Castle in Delaware, Mark Kirk in Illinois. Such a dream team of Republican candidates would shuffle up the deck and put Democrats in a difficult position.

Even with such a dream team, however, it is unimaginable that the GOP could conquer a Senate majority. The GOP’s objective will be to position itself well for 2012, a natural time for offense and a cycle in which Democrats will have a disproportionate number of seats to defend due to their successes in 2000 and 2006.

Needless to say, 22 months remain before the 2010 Election, and a lot will happen recruitment and retirement-wise in the coming months. In fact, I can identify only three seats (ID, UT and NY [Schumer]) with no conceivable scenario under which they would be competitive. Even VT and CT could become interesting if popular Republican Governors jump in! Underlying these rankings, then, are dozens of assumptions: It is for instance very unlikely that Govs. Douglas and Rell will challenge Sens. Leahy and Dodd and it is more plausible that Gov. Sebelius runs. We should expect many surprises to dramatically shuffle these rankings throughout 2009.

2010senate1

For now, we can proceed with the following breakdown, with some uncertainty due to the unresolved Coleman-Franken race:

  • Safe Democratic: 47-48
  • Safe/Likely Democratic: 55-56
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic: 58-59
  • Toss-ups: 3
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Republican: 38-39
  • Safe/Likely Republican: 33-34
  • Safe Republican: 31-32

Outlook: A 1-5 seat gain for Democrats.

Toss-ups (3 R, 0 D)

1. Kentucky (Jim Bunning)

A former baseball star, Bunning has never fully grown into his politician costume - so much that Republicans would most certainly be helped if Bunning decided to retire. His failure to raise much money combined with his age (he will be 79 by the next Election Day) has sparked speculation that he will do so - and the NRSC is certainly hoping to get such good news.

Bunning won his first two terms in extremely tough races, by 0.5% in 1998 and 1.4% in 2004. No one was paying attention to that latter race until the closing weeks of the campaign. But Bunning’s numbers collapsed in the closing stretch due to a number of bizarre incidents and senior moments. There is no reason for Bunning not to repeat such faux pas this year, and his lack of stature makes him an appealing target - even a state that has been trending Republican.

A number of Democrats are likely to jump in the race whether or not Bunning runs for re-election (in fact, some declined to run against McConnell in 2008 hoping to have a clearer shot at Bunning). Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (Bunning’s 2004 opponent) has acknowledged that he is looking at the race; other potential candidates include Rep. Chandler, who many consider as the strongest Democrat and state Auditor Crit Luallen.

2. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Arlen Specter is one of the Senate’s most powerful Republican members, but he is also highly endangered - if he even chooses to run for re-election. Unfortunately for Republicans, an open seat would improve nothing: Unlike in Kentucky, the seat’s vulnerability is not related to the incumbent’s unpopularity and Specter’s retirement would only increase Democratic prospects.

If Specter chooses to seek another term, he could face as competitive a primary as a general election. Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who Specter defeated by less than 2% in a nasty primary in 2004, is considering another run; Toomey now heads the conservative Club for Growth and considers Specter a “Republican in Name Only.” Indeed, the incumbent has a moderate profile and his vote over the next two years could make him even more vulnerable to a challenge from the right (Democrats have high hopes for Specter to join them on card-checks, for instance). In addition, a significant number of moderate Republicans have left the party since 2004 and will be unable to vote for Specter in the state’s closed primary.

Democrats would love nothing more than to face Toomey in the general election, as they are convinced that he is too conservative to be elected statewide. But they are also confident about challenging Specter, and the Democratic primaries could be as entertaining as the GOP’s. Hardball host Chris Matthews is considering a run and should announce his intentions in the coming weeks; at least two House members, Reps. Allison Schwarz and Patrick Murphy, could also jump in. All would make strong challengers, and a number of polls have already found Specter and Matthews in a toss-up.

3. Florida (Open)

Unpopular Senator Mel Martinez knew he was the Democrats’ number 1 target in the next cycle and chose not to even try holding on to his seat. His mid-November retirement announcement throws a lifeline to Republicans who have a far stronger bench in the state than Democrats.

The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Jeb Bush. Jeb left the office in 2006 with high approval ratings and national ambitions, but he will have to deal with his unpopular last name. Republicans insist that Jeb has never been handicapped by his brother’s troubles, but this is somewhat disingenuous: Jeb has not faced voters since 2002, a year in which Dubya was still highly popular. It is difficult to know how formidable Jeb would be now that the Bush name has become so toxic.

Meanwhile, Democrats hope to recruit Alex Sink, the state CFO. Sink announced she would not run but Martinez’s unexpected retirement caused her to reconsider her decision; Sink has already met with DSCC officials in Washington. The consensus appears to be that Sink is unlikely to run if the race appears too difficult, so a Jeb candidacy could be enough to scare her away.

Both parties have many other potential candidates, but none that has enough stature to clear the primary field. In other words, both parties could feature divisive battles if Bush and Sink do not run, and this could be an important factor in the general election: Florida holds September primaries, leaving a bruised nominee very little time to turn around and contest the general election.

Lean Retention (6 R, 3 D)

4. Missouri (Kit Bond)

Kit Bond has won four senatorial elections in Missouri, but the highest share he ever received was 56% in 2004. That statistic alone sums up Bond’s vulnerability, and the incumbent could face a top-tier challenger in 2010 if the DSCC manages to recruit Secretary of State Robin Carnahan - the latest prodigy of Missouri’s illustrious political dynasty; a recent Research 2000 poll found Bond leading Carnahan by 4%. Other potential candidates include Robin’s brother Russ and
state Auditor Susan Montee.

That said, Bond can count on the once-bellwether state’s increasingly reliable Republican nature. That John McCain prevailed in Missouri when he lost in all other competitive states (including Indiana) suggests that the state GOP still knows how to win elections.

5. Colorado (Unknown)

Senator Ken Salazar’s appointment to the Interior Department complicates Democratic efforts to hold on to the seat, but Salazar was already up for re-election in 2010 and he himself looked vulnerable. Going forward, it is difficult to handicap the race before we know who Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will appoint as Salazar’s successor. Interestingly, the different contenders are split along more substantive lines than in Illinois and New York, by which I mean that differences in policy preferences and ideology are part of the Colorado conversation.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Rep. John Salazar are conservative Democrats, and the former has antagonized unions; Rep. Ed Permlutter is closer to labor; former Senate candidate Ted Strickland is a top executive as a health insurance company; and state House Speaker Romanoff and Rep. Diana DeGette have a more liberal profile. Mark Udall demonstrated that CO can elect progressive Senator, but Ritter himself is conservative. That makes it difficult to imagine him choosing someone like DeGette and it might be enough to give the advantage to Hickenlooper.

Whichever Democrat Ritter chooses will have one major advantage in 2010: The GOP’s thin bench. The Republicans’ dream candidate is former Governor Bill Owen, yet Owens - who left office in 2006 - might no longer be formidable: A recent poll showed him handily defeated by Hickenlooper and Salazar. Not to mention that Owens passed on an open seat in 2008, so why would he now challenge an incumbent? Other potential Republican candidates include former Rep. McInnis, former football star John Elway and Rep. Tom Tancredo. (The latter faces clear electability issues in the general election, but Republicans are worried he would be hard to beat in the primary.)

6. New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)

Over the past three cycles, no state has shifted blue as dramatically as New Hampshire. In 2004, Democrats unexpectedly picked-up the governorship. In 2006, they shocked the political world by unseating the state’s two Republican House members and seizing both chambers of the state legislature. In 2008, Jeanne Shaheen toppled Senator Sununu, leaving Judd Gregg as the Democrats’ only target in what used to be a Republican stronghold.

A number of Democrats are looking at this race - perhaps too many. The DSCC’s dream candidate is popular Governor Lynch who just won re-election with 70% of the vote; however, Lynch has to seek re-election again in 2010 so he would have to give up the governor’s mansion to challenge Gregg. Two other candidates who are eying the race Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Hodes is often described as the strongest competitor, but Shea-Porter is regularly underestimated. She could prove a formidable candidate if she can repeat statewide her district-level exploits.

7. North Carolina (Richard Burr)

This is North Carolina’s cursed Senate seat: It has switched parties in the past five elections, and Democrats are hoping to prolong the streak by defeating freshman Senator Richard Burr. Democrats have a very deep bench in North Carolina. Most often mentioned are Attorney General Roy Cooper, former Attorney General Richard Moore, outgoing Governor Mike Easley, Rep. Heath Shuler. And the list goes on: Any number of contenders jumping in would make this a top-tier race. In fact, a recent PPP poll found Cooper leading Burr, a worrisome early sign of vulnerability for the incumbent.

Democratic hopes were surely boosted by the results of the 2008 election: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue and Kay Hagan’s victories suggest that Democrats have identified a roadmap for statewide victory. And that will certainly help the DSCC recruit a top-tier challenger.

8. Nevada (Harry Reid)

It is hard to believe how much Harry Reid’s fortunes have improved since early November. Once considered one of the cycles most endangered incumbents, Reid enjoyed two strokes of luck when his top two potential challengers were damaged. First, Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki was indicted on charges of misappropriation and falsification of accounts; this all but eliminates him from the Senate race. Second, Rep. Jon Porter lost his House seat, 48% to 42%; he is still considering a Senate run, but he will have a harder time mounting a solid and well-financed campaign.

That said, Reid remains highly vulnerable and for a very simple reason: He is deeply unpopular. A recent Research 2000 poll showed him with an approval rating of 38%; that’s deadly territory. The GOP might not have enough of a bench to guarantee a top-tier challenger, but Reid could be defeated by any credible Republicans. That same Research 2000 poll showed Reid leading Porter 46% to 40%; needless to say, it is not a good sign for the Senate Majority Leader to only manage such a narrow lead against someone who lost with barely 42% of the vote in his own re-election race.

9. Louisiana (David Vitter)

This is perhaps the most perplexing race of the cycle, and it is no surprise that it is occurring in the state that hosted the most perplexing contest of the past cycle (Landrieu-Kennedy). Once considered a rising Republican star, David Vitter would have had nothing to worry about if he had not gotten mixed up in the D.C Madam’s prostitution ring; last year, Vitter was forced to issue an apology and acknowledge a “very serious sin.”

In any other state, that might be enough to end a politician’s career. But once proudly Democratic Louisiana has given itself almost entirely to the Republican Party - so much so that there is only one Democrat left in the House delegation and Senator Mary Landrieu only prevailed by 5% in 2008 despite Democratic assurances that she was in no real danger.

Is there a Democrat who could rise to take advantage of Vitter’s scandal? Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu is a Democrat - but he is also Mary’s brother, and it is doubtful any state would elect two siblings as its Senators. The DSCC’s recruiters will surely start with Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and Rep. Charlie Melancon. But they will have to first answer this simple question: Can Democrats still win a truly contested election in post-Katrina Louisiana?

10. Ohio (George Voinovich)

The first question mark is whether Senator George Voinovich (a two-term Senator who served two gubernatorial terms in the 1990s) runs for re-election. Retirement rumors have been swirling, and an early exit would dramatically alter the field of play. Ohio is one of the country’s closest swing states, so we would surely be treated to a top-notch Senate battle.

For now, however, Voinovich has been preparing for another run: he already has more than $2.5 million in the bank! This does not mean that Democrats will be scared away. They have made big gains in the state over the past two cycles, conquering most of the statewide offices, defeating a Republican Senator in 2006 and picking-up four House seats. A number of Democrats could make this race a top-tier contest, starting with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan.

11. Kansas (Open)

The situation created by Sam Brownback’s retirement is strikingly simple. Either term-limited Democratic Governor Sebelius jumps in and this race skyrockets to the top of the rankings; or she stays away and Democrats have no hope of winning their first Kansas Senate race in since 1936.

For now, the DSCC has reason to hope: Sebelius looked certain to join Obama’s Administration and a Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running. But her decision to abruptly withdraw her name from consideration increased the speculation that she is looking to jump in the Senate race.

Republicans, meanwhile, are preparing for a heated primary between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran has already announced his candidacy while Tiahrt is only mulling a run. Both have a conservative profile, but their opposition could ignite the Kansas GOP’s famously nasty ideological split with Tiahrt in the role of the movement conservative. This would help Sebelius’s general election prospects.

12. Illinois (Unknown)

The Blagojevich scandal has injected complete chaos in this race. The only thing we know for sure is that there will be an election in November 2010. What we do not know is whether there will be an election before then.

Over the past week, Democrats have been backing away from calling a special election to fill Barack Obama’s seat, meaning that the most likely scenario is for the seat to remain vacant until Democrats manage to remove Blagojevich from office. It would then be up to currently-Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn to appoint a Senator - either a caretaker or a Democrat willing to run for re-election in 2010. It is impossible to handicap the race before knowing who Quinn might appoint.

But all bets are off if there is enough pressure for Democrats to be forced to call a special election in the spring of 2009, stripping the Governor of his appointment powers. A special election would be a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to pick-up a Senate seat: Democrats face a divisive primary, their nominee would be plagued by the taint of the Blagojevich scandal, and GOP Reps. Kirk and Roskam could jump in the race without having to fear losing their House seats.

Likely retention (8 D, 2 R)

13. California (Barbara Boxer)

California’s 2010 gubernatorial election is an open race since Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited. This is both good news and bad news for Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. On the one hand, Schwarzenegger is free to challenge Boxer. On the other hand, ambitious California Republicans are far more likely to try their luck in the gubernatorial race - meaning that Arnold could be all Boxer has to worry about. Whether this race is competitive, then, is likely to depend on the Governator’s decision.

That said, the first obstacle to an Arnold candidacy could be the GOP primary, as a conservative Republican could try and derail him. Arnold has angered conservative during his gubernatorial tenure, and California’s Republican primaries have tended to be a minefield for moderates. Another factor could be Diane Feinstein’s possible gubernatorial candidacy. This could lead Arnold to wait for Feinstein’s Senate seat to open up rather than challenge Boxer.

14. Delaware (Open)

This race is a special election that is being held because of Joe Biden’s resignation. The state’s Governor appointed a caretaker (longtime Biden aide Edward Kaufman) in an obvious effort to save the seat for state Attorney General Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq. This transparently nepotistic maneuver has angered the entourage of outgoing Lieutenant Governor Carney, who was hoping to get the appointment. Kaufman has already confirmed that he will not seek re-election in 2010, so Delaware Democrats could be treated to a contentious primary battle between Carney and Beau.

The GOP’s only shot at the seat is to recruit Rep. Mike Castle, a popular Republican who has represented the state’s at-large seat since 1992. If Castle passes on the race (he is old and with health issues), the Democratic primary will likely decide the final winner; if Castle jumps in, we could have a highly competitive and somewhat unpredictable race on our hands.

15. Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)

The most relevant question in this race is not whether Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye will run for re-election but whether Republican Governor Linda Lingle will attempt to move to Washington. Lingle is term-limited and cannot stay in the Governor’s mansion past 2010, so she has nothing to lose by attempting a senatorial run. The GOP has no bench in Hawaii and Lingle’s victory in 2002 was a breakthrough for state Republicans. Lingle is popular enough that she would be a very credible Senate candidate.

That said, Hawaii remains a staunchly Democratic state, and for a Republican to win a federal state is a difficult proposition. Lingle would face a particularly uphill climb if she faces Inouye, who has been serving in Congress since Hawaii achieved statehood in the 1950s. Inouye would be running for his ninth term in 2010, at age 86, and he recently announced that he would run again.

The GOP’s best case scenario is for Inouye to retire and Lingle to jump in the race - and even then Hawaii’s overwhelming blueness would make the race no better than a toss-up for the GOP. If Lingle faces Inouye, she would have a shot at an upset but Inouye would start as the very clear favorite. And if Lingle does not run, the seat will quickly fall down the rankings.

16. New York (Unknown)

This race is a special election to fill the reminder of Hillary’s Clinton term; the winner will face re-election again in 2012. It is difficult to handicap the race until Governor Paterson announces his pick sometime after Hillary Clinton is confirmed as Secretary of State in January - though I have repeatedly cautioned not to regard Caroline Kennedy as the most electable option. Her campaigning skills are so untested and her public record is so small that she could prove an electoral disaster just as easily as a political goldmine. There is also the possibility that Paterson appoint a caretaker who would not run for re-election in 2010.

Any Democratic candidate would be helped by the simple fact that New York’s Republican Party is moribund, and there are few Republicans who can hope to be competitive statewide. One is Rudy Giuliani, but after his catastrophic presidential campaign the former New York City Mayor no longer looks formidable; Giuliani is also said to be more interested in a gubernatorial run.

Another Republican who is openly considering the Senate race is Rep. Peter King, one of the state’s three remaining Republican House members. King would undoubtedly be a credible enough candidate to exploit any Democratic mistakes, particularly if Paterson appoints a political novice; but this is New York, and King is unlikely to get very far without Democratic help.

17. Iowa (Chuck Grassley)

Tom Vilsack’s nomination as Secretary of Agriculture clarified the situation in this race by removing from consideration the only Democrat who would have given five-term Senator Chuck Grassley a run for his money. If Grassley runs again, he is unlikely to face a difficult race; but Grassley is on everyone’s retirement watch - and an open seat in this increasingly blue state would become one of the Democrats’ top takeover opportunity.

18. North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Like Kansas and Hawaii, the competitiveness of this race is contingent on the candidacy of one man and one man only: Governor John Hoeven. If Hoeven declines to run, popular Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan will cruise towards re-election. If Hoeven jumps in the race, this will become a battle of political titans.

Despite the state’s Republican lean, Dorgan is a popular incumbent with the advantage of seniority (not to mention that he is the chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee on energy and water issues). And North Dakota is not as reliably red as it once was: John McCain did end up winning the state, but Obama mounted a very solid effort. Will that be enough to scare Hoeven away?

19. Washington (Patty Murray)

In 2004, Republicans made a lot of noise about challenging Patty Murray and they extensively touted their candidate, Rep. Nethercutt. But in what was otherwise a good year for Senate Republicans, the often-underestimated Murray easily won re-election. Since then, Washington has grown even more reliably Democratic, giving Barack Obama a crushing margin over John McCain and handing Governor Gregoire an easier-than-expected victory in 2008. The GOP’s bench in the state is stretched thin, and there is little reason for the party’s few credible potential candidates - Rep. Reichert, for instance - to try their luck.

20. Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)

Senator Russ Feingold is a perennial Republican target, though he won a relatively easy re-election race in 2004. To make this race competitive, the GOP would need to find a very strong recruit and hope that the national environment pushes them. After all, Feingold is a longtime Democratic incumbent sitting in a blue state - and one in which Barack Obama crushed John McCain. Unfortunately for Republicans, they have a weak bench in Wisconsin. Potential candidates include state Attorney General John Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan, a rising Republican star who is only 38 and might not want to endanger his career in such a difficult race.

21. Arizona (John McCain)

There is no question that Senator John McCain is vulnerable. He failed to get 50% in last spring’s Super Tuesday Republican primary and he ended up winning the state by single-digits against Barack Obama after being forced to schedule an emergency last-minute campaign stop. That said, McCain looks relatively secure. For one, McCain remains a force in Arizona politics and he now has two years to reestablish his popularity with independents.

Second, Governor Janet Napolitano’s nomination as Barack Obama’s Homeland Security Secretary removed McCain’s top potential challenger - and one that was already handily defeating him in early polls. Third, most ambitious Democrats are likely to jump in the gubernatorial race rather than launch an unlikely challenge to McCain. A retirement would naturally dramatically alter the playing field, but for now McCain has been positioning himself to run for re-election.

22. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)

In 2008, Arkansas Republicans did not even field a candidate against Democratic Senator Mark Pryor. Can they do better against Blanche Lincoln, who will run for a third term in 2010? The state has been clearly drifting in the GOP column, and Republicans desperately want to contest this seat. That said, Arkansas remains a reliably Democratic state at the local level, and the Republican bench is very weak. That explains why the race is ranked so low.

Some Republican names have been circulating - most notably that of interim prosecutor Tom Griffin, who was involved in the US Attorney’s scandal two years ago. (The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Mike Huckabee, but he is too wrapped up in preparations for a 2012 presidential run to risk it all in a difficult Senate race.)

Safe

23. Georgia (Johnny Isakson)

Saxby Chambliss’s re-election race suggested that Democrats have a path to unseating Republican incumbents in the Peach State (Martin received 46% of the first round vote) but it also demonstrated how red a state Georgia remains (Chambliss crushed Martin by 15% in the runoff). In 2010, Democrats might not suffer from as abysmal a turnout of their share as they did on December 2nd, but the share of the African-American vote is unlikely to be as high as it was on November 4th - and Democrats still have no clear roadmap to winning statewide races in Georgia.

They have no obvious candidate either. A recent PPP poll found Isakson under 50% against two potential challengers, Rep. Jim Marshall and Attorney General Thurbert Baker. There is little pointing to either considering a run.

24. South Carolina (Jim DeMint)

A Senator’s first re-election campaign is always the trickiest one, which is the only reason to think Democrats have any hope of unseating Jim DeMint. South Carolina is a heavily Republican state in federal races and it has gone increasingly red at the state-level as well, meaning that Democrats have a thin bench and no obvious candidate.

25. Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)

In 2008, Alaska proved that it was one of the most reliably Republican states of the country. Embattled GOP Rep. Don Young scored one of the biggest upsets of the cycle by defeating top Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, and convicted felon Ted Stevens came within a few points of winning re-election. Sure, Young and Stevens are both towering titans of Alaskan politics - a title Lisa Murkowski cannot claim. But it would take nothing short of a Murkowski indictment for Democrats to have a shot - and even then, they have a rather thin bench.

On the other hand, the Republican primary could be one of the most entertaining races of the cycle if Sarah Palin decides to challenge Murkowski. (The GOP’s former vice-presidential nominee defeated Lisa’s father Frank in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and one of the reasons Frank Murkowski was so unpopular then was that he appointed his daughter Lisa to replace him in the Senate.)

26. Maryland (Mikulski)

If longtime Senator Barbara Mikulski runs for re-election, she will be unlikely to face a serious Republican opponent: She is an entrenched incumbent in a solidly Democratic state. But Mikulski is rumored to be eying retirement. An open seat could create a competitive race, though Democrats would start with the upper-hand.

27. Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is finishing his second full term, and it’s hard to see him in much danger in 2010. First, Wyden is a popular incumbent - so popular, in fact, that Republican Senator Gordon Smith touted his relationship with Wyden in his 2008 campaign ads. Second, Oregon reconnected with its reliably Democratic roots this year, giving Barack Obama a huge victory and making it that much more difficult to envision a GOP comeback.

It’s unlikely Wyden will attract top opposition; Gordon Smith might be the only credible Republican candidate, but how could he defeat an incumbent he himself praised when he couldn’t win his own re-election race?

28. Alabama (Richard Shelby)

First elected as a Democrat in 1986, Senator Shelby switched parties in 1994. Since then, the South has become the GOP’s only safe refuge and Democrats have had a tough time in Alabama. That said, they performed exceptionally well in 2008, picking-up AL-02 and holding on to conservative AL-05. Ambitious state Democrats - like Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, Rep. Arthur Davis and Rep. Bobby Bright - are more likely to jump in the gubernatorial race than to challenge Shelby.

29. South Dakota (John Thune)

Democrats would love to defeat freshman Senator John Thune, but it’s difficult to see who could defeat Tom Dashle’s 2004 slayer. Often mentioned as a future presidential or vice-presidential candidate, Thune represents a staunchly Republican state and he already had $3,730,617 in the bank at the end of the third quarter of 2008. Furthermore, he no longer has to worry about Dashle seeking a rematch since the former Senate Majority Leader is now Obama’s HHS Secretary. One potential Democratic candidate is Rep. Stephanie Herseth, who is said to be eying a higher position. But Herseth would be much better served running for Governor or waiting for Tim Johnson’s retirement from the state’s other Senate seat.

30. Indiana (Evan Bayh)

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is a popular - and very entrenched - incumbent who is unlikely to draw serious Republican opposition. He served two terms as Governor and then won two senatorial elections - in 1998 and in 2004. And if this was not enough to keep potential challengers at bay, he enters 2009 with a huge war chest: As of September 30th, Bayh had $11 million of cash on hand.

Furthermore, Indiana is no longer the staunchly conservative state of Bayh’s first election: Barack Obama stunningly prevailed in the state, a shift of 21% since the 2004 election. The hundreds of thousands of new registrants that have now been brought into the mix will help all Indiana Democrats in the years ahead.

31. Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

In any other state, as conservative and controversial a Senator as Tom Coburn would be in grave danger. But Oklahoma became the country’s reddest state in 2008: John McCain won every single county and Senator Inhofe demolished promising Democratic state Senator Andrew Rice. The only threat to Coburn’s reelection is Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who will be term-limited out his job in 2010. Unfortunately for the DSCC, Henry has rather emphatically declared that he is unlikely to run for Senate, citing the stress it would put on his family life.

32. Connecticut (Chris Dodd)

Democratic Senator Chris Dodd’s approval ratings are not particularly high (48% in a recent Quinnipiac poll) and his position on the Senate’s Banking Committee could give Republicans an opening to link him to the financial mess. That said, Connecticut is a heavily Democratic state, Dodd is a five-term incumbent and Republicans have no obvious candidate other than Governor Jodi Rell. This is a similar situation as in Vermont: Rell is up for re-election in 2010, so she would have to give up her relatively safe job for a very difficult race.

33. Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Now that Democrats are durably in the majority, Democratic Senator Pat Leahy gets to chair the Senate’s Judiciary Committee - and for that reason alone he is likely to run for re-election in 2010. The only Republican who could potentially cause him some headaches is Governor Jim Douglas. But Douglas has to run for re-election in 2010, so why would he abandon his relatively safe job for a quixotic effort to topple Leahy?

34. New York (Chuck Schumer)

The Empire State’s Republican Party is moribund, Chuck Schumer is a popular Democratic incumbent with remarkable fundraising skills and, to the extent that any credible Republicans with statewide ambitions can be found, they are far more likely to jump in the two other New York races that will be on the ballot in 2010: the gubernatorial race and the special election for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

35. Idaho (Mike Crapo)

In 2004, Senator Mike Crapo won re-election with more than 99% of the vote as he was running opposed. Finding a candidate to run would already represent progress for Democrats.

36. Utah (Bob Bennett)

Three-term Senator Bob Bennett will remain Utah’s Senator for as long as he wants to be.


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And we go on

Call it post-Election withdrawal. There is something unsettling about the first few days after an election, when political junkies realize that the simplest acts of their daily routine have become meaningless. There is no tracking poll by Research 2000 to wake up to, nor any reason to refresh Gallup.com at 1pm. Wednesday afternoons will not bring us the latest CNN/Time delivery, nor will Monday evenings be the occasion of a Rasmussen extravaganza. We will have no new campaign ad to dissect for months, nor will we excitedly react to the DCCC’s latest Tuesday night expenditures. And looming on the horizon are no debates, infomercials, town halls and Election Nights.

Thankfully, there still are a dozen uncalled congressional races - including some looming recounts and a few runoffs. This will certainly not provide the same level of excitement as we lived over the past month, but hopefully enough to satisfy some of our thirst for electoral drama.

Here is a run-through of the 4 remaining Senate races (Democrats have picked-up 5 already, while incumbents have survived in KY, LA and MS):

  • Alaska: This is simply incredible. Just 8 days after being convicted on 7 felony charges, Ted Stevens is not only alive - but he is ahead! With nearly all precincts reporting, he leads 48% to 46,5%, a difference of about 3,500 votes. However, 40,000 absentee ballots have to be counted, which is obviously a significant number that could change a lot in the race. In typical Alaska fashion (remember the Young-Parnell primary?), counting those absentee ballots is not likely to start for a few days and could take a few weeks.
  • Georgia: Chambliss looked set to pass 50% throughout the night, but as African-American neighborhoods reported less his percentage dwindled down and as thousands of previously unreported early votes were accounted for. The totals now have Chambliss ahead at 49.8%, with Jim Martin at 47%. The Atlanta Journal Constitution and the AP have called a runoff, which would take place on December 2nd and surely become a heated multi-million battle.
  • Minnesota: As many had predicted, the Coleman-Franken dogfight has turned into the tightest Senate race in the country - perhaps even the tightest congressional contest. Coleman and Franken traded leads throughout the night - every few minutes, even, around 4am as the last precincts were reporting. Now, Coleman - who has declared victory - is holding on by the tiniest of margins (less than 500 votes) with some provisional ballots evidently still being counted and some counties adjusting their totals. The race appears set to go to a recount, which might not be resolved until December! For now, the advantage goes to Coleman.
  • Oregon: Republican Senator Gordon Smith is holding on to a 9,000 vote lead with 77% of estimated votes counted. However, only about half of Multnomah County (Portland)’s estimates votes have been counted, and Merkley is likely to gain tens of thousands more votes there than his opponent. Given where the outstanding votes are slated to come from, Merkley is still favored to come out ahead (Blue Oregon is following the results with great detail).

At the House level, Democrats have already picked-up a net 19 seats and all of their seats have been called, so the 8 remaining races are all on Republican turf:

  • AK-AL: Truly stunning. Republican Rep. Don Young is leading 52% to 44% though with 40,000 absentee left to count the AP is holding off a call. Young seemed to be the most vulnerable of all Republican incumbents, but Alaska once again proved to be a tough state for Democrats to win in. If Young pulls it off - and it looks like he will - this will go down as the biggest upsets of the 2008 cycle.
  • CA-04: Two years after losing a close race to Rep. Doolittle, Democrat Charlie Brown is trailing by just 400 votes against Republican candidate McClintock. There are many absentee ballots left to be counted, however, and we will probably not know the result for a while.
  • LA-04 and LA-07: In these two districts, the election yesterday was only a primary. The general election will be held in early December. The former is a toss-up, the latter leans Republican.
  • MD-01: With all precincts reporting, Democratic candidate Kratovil has a 915 vote lead in this conservative open seat. There are about 32,000 absentee ballots to be counted, so this could go either way.
  • OH-15: Mary Joe Kilroy is in the same situation she was in two years ago. She was expected to beat GOP Rep. Pryce, trailed by 3,000 on Election Night and cut that led by half after provisional ballots were counted. Now, Kilroy was expected to beat GOP candidate Stivers but she fell so far behind on Election Night that the AP and CNN called the race for her opponent. The race was later uncalled. It’s unclear what is going on at the moment. CNN has Stivers leading by 12,000 while other outlets have a 321 vote margin… If the race is tight, it will likely not be decided for more than a week as there are many provisional and absentee ballots that will have to be counted.
  • VA-05: Tom Perriello led through the night against Republican Rep. Goode in what would have been the biggest Democratic upset of the night but the margin tightened today - Goode even took a 400 vote lead for a few hours. In the latest reporting, Perriello is back on top by 81 votes (!). There are still provisional ballots to be counted, and this is sure to go to a recount.
  • WA-08: Only 41% of the district is reporting, making it difficult to know what is going on between Rep. Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner. Reichert has a 1,500 lead now, but this has a long way to go.

All gubernatorial races have been called - yes, even the Greoire-Rossi match-up! Neither Prop 8 nor Prop 4 have officially been called by the AP or by CNN as millions of absentee votes might still remain, but there is no question that the road looks tough for gay rights advocates.

At the presidential level, Missouri has been called for McCain by some outlets but not others, while Obama maintains a narrow lead in North Carolina which has also not been called. Also up in the air is NE-02’s electoral votes, as we await further counting.


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Election night cheat sheet

Here is guide to follow tonight’s results, with every race that will be worth calling tonight arranged by poll closing time. In addition to the 51 separate presidential match-ups, 35 Senates seats and 11 gubernatorial contests, this list includes a grand total of 109 House races! (A more detailed guideline of what to expect - and a call for prediction - here.)

Of course, not all congressional contests are born equal, so I have colored all Senate, House and Governor races that are rated in the most vulnerable categories (anywhere from lean retention to likely take-over) so you can get a better sense of where to focus your attention. Keep an eye especially on Florida, Ohio and New York as there are a lot of tight House races in those three states.

Most of the attention will likely be devoted to the presidential race, however. But I do not see the point in predicting what each candidate needs to accomplish at the different hours. These times indicate when polls close, not at what time we should expect to get results. Some states - some counties! - are extremely slow at reporting, others are much quicker. If Obama wins Indiana, for instance, it is unlikely he can pull ahead before Gary Lake County reports - and we learned on May 6th that Gary Lake County does not like to report any results before the rest of the country has been reduced to hysteria because of the excruciating wait. That said, we should know fairly quickly whether we are heading towards an Obama landslide or if results are much tighter than polls predicted.

6pm ET

  • Kentucky (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Senate, KY-02, KY-03
  • Indiana (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Governor, IN-03, IN-08, IN-09

7pm ET

  • Florida (panhandle closes at 8pm ET): President, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, Question 1 (marriage amendment)
  • Georgia: President, Senate, GA-08, GA-12
  • New Hampshire (in some localities, option to keep polls open until 8pm): President, Senate, Governor, NH-01, NH-02
  • South Carolina: President, Senate, SC-01, SC-02
  • Vermont: President, Governor
  • Virginia: President, Senate, VA-02, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11

7:30pm ET

  • North Carolina (county boards have right to keep polls open until 8:30): President, Senate, Governor, NC-05, NC-08, NC-10
  • Ohio: President, OH-01, OH-02, OH-07, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18
  • West Virginia: President, Senate, Governor, WV-02

8pm ET

  • Alabama: President, Senate, AL-02, AL-03, AL-05
  • Connecticut: President, CT-04, CT-05
  • Delaware: President, Senate, Governor
  • DC: President
  • Illinois: President, Senate, IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, IL-18
  • Maine: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district), Senate, ME-02
  • Maryland: President, MD-01
  • Massachusetts: President, Senate, Question 1 (income tax)
  • Michigan: President, Senate, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09
  • Mississippi: President, Senate A, Senate B, MS-01
  • Missouri: President, Governor, MO-06, MO-09
  • New Jersey: President, Senate, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07
  • Oklahoma: President, Senate
  • Pennsylvania: President, PA-03, PA-04, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15, PA-18
  • Tennessee: President, Governor
  • Texas (El Paso area closes at 9pm ET): President, Senate, TX-07, TX-10, TX-22, TX-23

8:30pm ET

  • Arkansas: President, Senate

9pm ET

  • Arizona: President, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, marriage amendment
  • Colorado: President, Senate, CO-04, Amendment 46 (affirmative action), Amendment 48 (definition of “person”)
  • Kansas: President, Senate, KS-02, KS-03
  • Louisiana: President, Senate, LA-04, LA-06, LA-07
  • Minnesota: President, Senate, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MN-06
  • Nebraska: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district), Senate, NE-02
  • New Mexico: President, Senate, NM-01, NM-02
  • New York: President, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, state Senate
  • Rhode Island: President, Senate
  • South Dakota: President, Senate, Initiated Measure 11 (abortion)
  • Wisconsin: President, WI-08
  • Wyoming: President, Senate A, Senate B, WY-AL

10pm ET

  • Idaho (parts of the state close at 11pm ET): President, ID-01
  • Iowa: President, Senate, IA-04
  • Montana: President, Senate, Governor
  • Nevada: President, NV-02, NV-03
  • North Dakota: President, Governor
  • Utah: President, Governor

11pm ET

  • California: President, CA-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-26, CA-45, CA-46, CA-50, Prop 1 (transit), Prop 4 (parental notification), Prop 8 (gay marriage)
  • Hawaii: President
  • Oregon: President, Senate, OR-05
  • Washington: President, Governor, WA-05, WA-08

1am ET

  • Alaska: President, Senate, AK-AL

Note on closing times: Polls in some states do not close at the same time, either because of differing time zones or because of longer hours in urban areas. I have here listed these state at the time we should expect to start seeing the first results, not the time at which all polls close. In Florida, for instance, networks might not want to make any calls before all polls close at 8pm ET, but if past patterns hold today some counties should start releasing totals after 7pm ET. I have tried to indicate in which states such problems can arise.


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Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

The presidential race remained remarkably stable. If the tracking polls showed McCain gaining slightly yesterday, they have Obama regaining some breathing room today; he is at 50% or above in 6 of the 9 national polls. McCain is once again stuck in the low 40s, with a margin ranging from 41% to 46%. Sure, the New York Times and Fox News national polls came out with differing results, but at least there is no mystery behind the discrepancy: the partisan breakdown has narrowed in the Fox poll.

McCain got one of his most promising polling results in days today as Mason Dixon found him trailing by only 4% in Pennsylvania - the tightest the state has been since a mid-September poll. We should not dismiss this poll, even though surveys taken over the same period show a larger advantage for Obama. Mason Dixon has been consistently releasing results that are better than average for McCain. The Republican nominee led in Virginia when other surveys found him trailing, and trailed only narrowly when other surveys found a large gap; the same was true in Florida and now Pennsylvania. The consistency of these narrower results suggests that it is due to Mason Dixon’s methodology and turnout models, which means that we should not throw these out as outliers: There is a turnout model out there employed by a respected pollster like Mason Dixon that yields results that are better for Republicans, and we won’t know until Tuesday whose assumptions were flawed.

All of this said, there is no discussion to be had that Obama retains an extremely strong position in the electoral college. For one, he remains ahead in the Big Three sates: 3 polls of Pennsylvania show him in the lead (though Mason Dixon has a 4% race), and he is also ahead in Colorado and Virginia. While two polls of Virginia show him with narrower leads than we have seen of late, both surveys were taken over the same period as the CNN and SUSA polls that had him leading by 9% - so these new polls are not picking any new tightening.

To make matters worse for McCain, we might now be getting a third competitive red state where an Obama pick-up appears increasingly likely: Nevada. After posting two double-digit leads earlier this week, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in two new surveys (Suffolk and CNN/Time). This is a very important development: Even if McCain were to save Virginia and Colorado, Obama would become president by winning Nevada alone; if McCain can somehow snatch Pennsylvania, an (not at all improbable) Obama sweep of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would offset the loss of the Keystone State.

As if this was not enough, Ohio and North Carolina are slowly moving in Obama’s column as the Democrat is accumulating good results in both. Today, he leads in all five polls from these two states, and four of them have him ahead outside of the MoE. Given that a huge number of North Carolina voters have already voted, it is starting to get late for McCain to turn the tide. And while Obama is showing no sign of trembling in blue states (he has huge leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota), McCain is now locked in highly competitive races in a number of staunchly red states - including his home state of Arizona, South Dakota and Montana.

  • Obama leads 52% to 41% in a New York Times/CBS News poll, a very small tightening from Obama’s 13% lead last week. 51% say Obama is ready to be president, and McCain’s favorability has collapsed to 41% (!). So has voters’ estimate of whether Palin is able to deal the job (only 35% say so). Obama leads among men and women, and has a 17% advantage among independents.
  • Obama leads 47% to 44% in a Fox News national poll conducted over the past two days. Obama led by 9% last week, so the race has substantially tightened. The partisan ID has tightened from a 6% gap to a 2% gap (though this does not seem to be an arbitrary imposition like Zogby’s).
  • Tracking polls: Obama gains 2% in Zogby (50% to 43%) and in Rasmussen (51% to 46%). He gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 44%). The race is stable in Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%), Gallup (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 2% in the LVT model, 50% to 45%). Obama loses 1% in Hotline (48% to 42%) and in Research 2000 (50% to 45%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Sunday and Monday. Obama leads 54% to 41% in Morning Call’s tracking, the highest percentage Obama has ever received in this poll. Obama leads 55% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 15% among registered voters!).
  • Colorado: Obama leads 51% to 45% in a Marist poll (52% to 43% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; his lead comes entirely among the 44% of registered voters who say they have already voted. Obama leads by 23% among independents and has strongest party loyalty (leading me to question why he is only ahead by 6%). Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama leads by 22% among independents.
  • Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Marist poll (by 6% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; McCain takes a 12% lead among independents. Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Both polls were taken over the same period as SUSA, Rasmussen and CNN poll showing larger Obama leads.
  • Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a RGJ/Research 2000 poll (he led by 7% earlier in October); McCain leads by 3% in crucial Washoe County, though the RGJ points out that (unreleased) private polls for both parties have Obama leading that county. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday, an improvement over his 5% lead last week (he leads by 11% among registered voters!).
  • Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 41% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama’s lead is outside of the MoE. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 10% among registered voters!).
  • Florida: Obama leads 45% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday.
  • North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (McCain led by 2% on Sunday). Obama leads 47% to 43% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama led by 4% last week, he is ahead by 3% among registered voters).
  • Indiana: McCain leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (he led by 7% three weeks ago). Obama leads 46% to 45% in a Selzer & Co poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday; he is ahead 2:1 among early voters and gets “only” 82% of African-Americans (remember Tuesday’s polling memo released by the McCain campaign?). The candidates are tied at 47% in a Research 2000 poll taken from Friday through Tuesday.
  • Wisconsin: Obama takes a giant 55% to 39% lead in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday, up from 8%. Obama leads by 28% among early voters.
  • Iowa: Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • South Dakota: McCain only leads 45% to 40% in an internal poll for Democratic Senator Johnson’s campaign.
  • Montana: McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by four weeks ago.
  • Safe(r) states: McCain leads 61% to 36% in a SUSA poll of Alabama. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts. Obama leads 55% to 33% in a Field poll of California. Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 53% to 42% in a NBC News poll and 52% to 44% in a SUSA poll of South Carolina (but only by 6% among registered voters). McCain leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

  • Louisiana: Two polls have differing results. An internal poll for the Kennedy campaign has Mary Landrieu up 45% to 44%, while a Loyola University poll has Landrieu ahead 49% to 34%; the latter poll does not seem very reliable, however, as it only shows McCain leading by 3% and implying an oversampling of Democrats.
  • Mitch McConnell leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. (McConnell led by the same margin last month.) A Lunsford internal has McConnell leading 47% to 45%, however.
  • Norm Coleman leads 42% to 36% in a Mason Dixon poll of Minnesota. Barkley is now at 12%, and he is hurting Franken: He draws 17% of Democrats and only 4% of Republicans - a hugely consequential disparity.
  • Safer seats: Tom Udall leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. GOP Senator Pat Roberts leads 60% to 33% in a new SUSA poll of Kansas. Democratic Senator Lautenberg leads 56% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. Sen. Cornyn leads 45% to 36% in a University of Texas poll, with 5% going to Libertarian candidate Adams-Schick. GOP candidate Jim Risch leads 45% to 33% in a Harstad poll of Idaho.
  • In MO-06, perhaps the most disappointing House race for Democrats, GOP Rep. Graves leads 54% to 36% in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.
  • In KY-02, GOP candidate Brett Guthrie leads 53% to 43% in a new SUSA poll. Guthrie led by 9% last month but trailed over the summer.
  • In OR-05, Democratic candidate Kurt Schrader leads 55% to 33% in a SUSA poll.
  • In NY-26, Republican candidate Chris Lee has a large 48% to 34% lead against Alice Kryzan in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.
  • In ID-01, Democratic challenger leads 48% to 41% in a Harstad poll, though the poll has a large MoE of 6%.
  • In PA-12, Rep. Murtha only leads 46% to 44% in a GOP poll conducted by Dane & Associates.
  • In Massachusetts’s question 1 to repeal the state income tax, the “no” is far ahead, 64% to 29% in a SUSA poll.

Democrats have their share of very good news in these wave of surveys - especially the two North Carolina polls showing a Hagan lead and the NV-02 survey confirming that Rep. Heller is in real danger - Republicans got uncommly positive numbers over the past 24 hours. In the Senate, Republicans appear to be solidifying their hold on the four Senate seats that are not yet leaning Democratic - KY, MN, MS and also GA because a runoff should help Chambliss. McConnell has not slipped further after his race fell into a competitive race in early October, and Coleman has improved his situation over the past three weeks.

Minnesota should be particularly worrisome to Democrats because Franken’s slippage is due to the fact that Barkley is starting to draw disproportionately from Franken’s base. If that is confirmed by other polls, it is hard to see Franken pull this off. This is a reminder that, however much progress Democrats have made over the past few weeks, the path to 60 still requires picking-up two out of these 4 seats - and that remains a tall order.

The latest House polls should also be a reminder that Democrats will certainly not win everything on Tuesday, and that a fair number of Republicans appear to be making progress in this hostile environment. The latest poll of MO-06 has to be crushing to Democrats as former Kansas City Mayor Barnes was once one of their top recruits. And while the DCCC is still investing in NY-26, the polls have not been very promising ever since Kryzan won the Democratic nomination.


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Poll watch: There is a state-national lag, Obama dominates the Big 3, Stevens falls behind

The tracking polls have somewhat tightened over the past few days, and this is evident from the two candidate’s ranges: Obama was solidly above 50% in most trackings last week, but he has now slipped under that mark in three out of the seven polls. More noticeable is the uptick in McCain’s range: I have repeatedly pointed out that McCain is stuck in the low 40s, but he is slowly inching upward as five of the seven trackings show him at 44% - with Hotline finding him at 42% and Rasmussen at 47%.

That said, these are all slight changes that would need to be confirmed in the coming days. Collectively, they leave Obama firmly in command with six days to go. More importantly, Obama is as dominant as ever in the day’s state polls.

But here is where we have to pause for a minute and ask ourselves: are these state polls up to date with the latest national data ? In other words, are they taken over the same period? The national tracking polls suggest that there has been some tightening over the past three days only (Research 2000, for instance, has much tighter margins in Sunday, Monday and Tuesday’s samples than in those of the previous nights), so would state polls have already caught a tightening over these past three days?

Despite Nate Silver’s argument this afternoon that there is no lag between national and state polling, the day’s polling suggests that there is such a lag. Most of the state surveys released today were conducted before the tracking polls: The AP/GfK and the Quinnipiac polls ended on Sunday and were conducted over a four to five day period in which national polls found a big Obama lead; the CNN/Time polls were conducted through yesterday, but they went in the field on Thursday, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the last three days; the situation is the same for the Franklin & Marshall poll or Marist’s Ohio poll. The only state polls that have been entirely conducted since Sunday are Marist’s Pennsylvania poll (which has a big Obama lead) and Rasmussen’s three polls from MI, MN and NM, all of which show McCain gaining between 3% and 6%.

This is not to say that the race has tightened, only that we have very few data points at the state level with which to compare the national polls. So for Obama supporters who are worried that the race might have tightened since Sunday because of what they see in the latest Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and Research 2000 surveys, most of today’s state polling cannot offer much comfort.

What should comfort Obama supporters, however, is that the gap is still huge in the states McCain needs to win, and that a 2-3% tightening nationally would barely make a dent in Obama’s lead in the Big Three states: Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. Obama leads by double digits in four Pennsylvania polls - one of which was conducted over the past two days. And he posts commanding leads in Virginia and in Colorado in four new polls released today.

The second tier of Obama pick-up opportunities still look good for Obama: The second Nevada poll in two days finds him leading by double-digits, a huge gap for McCain to close. (Remember that winning Nevada in conjunction with Colorado and Virginia would mean that Pennsylvania no longer matters.) Obama also posts healthy leads in Ohio - though none of the three polls was in the field after Sunday.

And the tightest states that look like true toss-ups continue to be states Obama does not need and that McCain is stuck defending: Missouri and North Carolina are both dead heats in today’s surveys. On the other hand, Obama posts huge leads in blue states that looked competitive just a month ago, including NH, MN and MI. On to the full roundup:

  • National tracking polls: Obama loses 2% in Rasmussen (50% to 47%), 1% in Research 2000 (50% to 44%), 1% in Hotline (49% to 42%), 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). The race is stable in Zogby (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 1% in the RV and LVT model). He gains 1% in Zogby (49% to 44%) and Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%). Obama’s leads thus are: 3%, 3%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads 52% to 41% in the latest Morning Call tracking poll, a 1% drop since yesterday. Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Marist poll conducted Sunday and Monday. He leads 53% to 41% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, a 1% drop since the week before. Obama leads 53% to 40% in a Franklin & Marshall poll that started running Tuesday the 21st (8 days ago) through Sunday. Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Virginia: Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 10% two weeks ago. Obama leads 49% to 42% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Colorado: Obama leads 53% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 4% two weeks ago. Obama leads 50% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Nevada: Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Marist poll conducted over the week-end (he led by 4% two weeks ago). Obama leads 51% to 42% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 14% the week before. Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Florida: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 5% two weeks ago. Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 5% the week before and by 8% in the preceding poll. Obama leads 45% to 43% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Missouri: McCain leads 50% to 48% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 1% two weeks ago.
  • North Carolina: Obama leads 48% to 46% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Michigan: Obama leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 16% two weeks ago.
  • New Hampshire: Obama leads 58% to 34% in the UNH tracking poll. Obama leads 55% to 37% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
  • Minnesota: Obama leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 15% two weeks ago.
  • Georgia: McCain leads 52% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 8% two weeks ago.
  • Safe states: Obama leads 63% to 33% in a SUSA poll of Delaware. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 62% to 33% in a SUSA poll of New York. McCain leads 57% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Alaska.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

  • Mark Begich leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of the Alaska Senate race. Stevens led by 1% three weeks ago.
  • Norm Coleman leads 43% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota’s Senate race, with 14% for Barkley (who loses 3%). For the first time, it appears that Barkley is taking more votes from Franken than from Coleman in what (if it is confirmed) could be Franken’s undoing. Franken led by 4% two weeks ago.
  • Kay Hagan leads 47% to 43% in an AP/GfK poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.
  • Mark Udall leads 48% to 36% in an AP/GfQ poll of Colorado’s Senate race.
  • Mark Warner leads 58% to 32% in an AP/GfQ poll of the Virginia Senate race.
  • Two new polls in Washington’s gubernatorial race have a 2% margin: Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in SUSA and 49% to 47% in Strategic Vision.
  • Incumbent Governor Jim Douglas leads with 47% to 24% to independent candidate Anthony Pollina and 23% to Democratic nominee Gay Symington in a Research 2000 poll of Vermont. If no candidate crosses 50%, the legislature will have to vote on the winner; even though the legislature is controlled by Democrats, they would be likely to pick Douglas if he comes ahead (as they did in 2002).
  • In MN-03, GOP nominee Erik Paulsen leads 45% to 44% in a new SUSA poll. Democrat Aswhin Madia had a 3% lead three weeks ago. A third party candidate gets 9%, drawing far more votes from Democrats than Republicans.
  • In PA-10, Democratic Rep. Carney leads 50% to 35% in a Lycoming College poll. He led by 10% last month.
  • In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter leads 44% to 42% in the UNH tracking poll, a suspicious 11% drop in one day. No surprise in NH-02, where Rep. Hodes leads.

A lot of Senate polls were released today, and they bring some good news for both parties. Democrats confirm that they are in command of Colorado and New Hampshire’s Senate races, and the first post-verdict survey of Alaska suggests that Stevens is now the clear underdog. However, the poll also underscores that Stevens is not out of the game - and if he trails by 8% in the immediate aftermath of his conviction, he could still make up some ground. Furthermore, Rasmussen finds Coleman gaining a day after he showed Wicker pulling away. The Minnesota Senate race is still wholly unpredictable (and will remain so because of the Barkley factor), but Democrats aren’t at 60 yet.


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DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

With a week remaining before Election Day, all campaigns and national committees are budgeting their final advertising push and buying media time to last them through November 4th. The DCCC has poured in nearly $15 million in almost 40 districts already this week. More investments are likely to come today and tomorrow, first because the DCCC has left out a number of districts in which it regularly invests and because it appears that the NRCC has yet to make its last round of expenditures. But the DCCC’s $14 million latest spending spree gives us a good idea of which seats Democrats are the most committed to. (Most of the following numbers come from SSP’s always very handy House expenditure tracker.)

In three districts did the DCCC go for broke; all are currently held by the GOP: In IL-10, the DCCC just poured in an impressive $929,279, bringing its total investment in the district to more than $2 million. (This is partly explained by the fact that IL-10 is in the expensive Chicago market). In NV-03, the DCCC bought more than $750,000 of air time against Rep. Porter, bringing its total to more than $2.3 million. And in IL-11, $600,000 worth of advertisement (and a total that surpasses $2 million) should help Debbie Halvorson win this open seat.

Another group of seats - here again predominantly GOP-held - saw massive investments of more than $500,000. Those include the once-safe AZ-03, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, OH-15 (the total surpasses $2 million in each of these five districts), MN-06 (the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million in two weeks on Bachmann’s seat) and the conservative NM-02 (for a total of $1.5 million). This makes New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter the most protected Democratic incumbent, and confirms the remarkable development by which the DCCC has poured more effort in AZ-03 than in many seats that were more obviously competitive.

Also notable are the DCCC’s expenditures that top $400,000. Here again the list is made up of Republican seats: MD-01, MN-03 and OH-01 (total spending in each now tops $2 million), MI-07 and MI-09 (total spending in each tops $1 million), CA-04 and NY-26. Between $200,000 and $400,000, we have AZ-01 (an open seat that is considered an easy Democratic pick-up but where the DCCC has now spent more than $2 million), CO-04, KY-02, MO-09, FL-24 (all now more than $1 million total), FL-21, FL-25, NE-02, OH-02, NY-29, FL-08, IN-03 and IN-09. Rounding up six-figure expenditures are AK-AL, CA-11, CT-04, LA-06, NJ-03 and NJ-07 (all more than $1 million total), AL-05, ID-01, KS-02.

A few observations about this spending spree. First, the DCCC did not expand the map this week. The only new seat they invested in yesterday is FL-08, a district that has looked highly competitive for weeks and that I just moved to the lean take-over category this past week-end. Also noteworthy is NE-02, where the DCCC’s media buy this week is eight times higher than it was last week. However, there are a number of districts we have been talking about lately in which the DCCC is not playing despite the massive loan it took last week; those include California’s seats, IA-04, FL-13, FL-18 or even SC-01 where the DCCC has not followed up on a small investment it made last week. Furthermore, the national committee appears to have given up on MO-06, which was once considered a top opportunity but in which the DCCC has not bought air time for two weeks now.

Second, Democrats seem to be very comfortable about playing defense. They have largely pulled out of AZ-05, AZ-08 or MS-01, all districts that the GOP had high hopes of contesting; they have not had to spend a dime in places like KS-03 or NY-20, seats Republicans had vowed to contest. And they do not seem to feel particular energy in many of the blue seats in which they are investing. However, we do know that the DCCC is starting to air this ad in PA-12 on behalf of Murtha, though they have yet to report that expenditure.

The NRCC, meanwhile, posted a few expenditures over the past two days though a lot more should come tonight. Noteworthy investments include $375,000 spent in WY-AL, more than $250,000 in NE-02 and MO-09, more than $100,000 in MO-06, IN-03. What do all these districts have in common? They are extremely heavily Republican (Bush won IN-03 with 68% of the vote, for instance, and let us not even talk about WY-AL) and Republican candidates are in such a bad state that the NRCC is forced to spend its money in such districts.

(There is something to be said against the NRCC’s decision making, and we might talk about this more in the coming week: Swing seats like NM-01 or OH-16 will likely be lost for a decade or more if Democrats pick them up, yet the NRCC is not spending a dime there. Conservative seats like WY-AL or IN-03 would be likely to fall back into GOP hands in the coming cycle or two, but the NRCC is spending all of its resources in such places.)

Let’s take a closer look at Southern Florida, where the battles in FL-21 and in FL-25 have become truly vicious. Both seats are in the same Miami media market, and they are represented by the (Republican) Diaz-Balart brothers. So Democrats have decided to save money - and just air an ad targeting both Diaz-Balarts:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMgxd3aiWo"]

The GOP’s response in FL-25 is also fascinating because it bears such a close resemblance to what is going on in the presidential race. Democratic candidate Joe Garcia is blasted for being in favor of “redistribution of the wealth,” underscoring how much Republicans are banking on Joe the Plumber at this point:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTm91xZQhl0"]


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Poll watch: Trackings tighten (a bit), but Obama dominates in VA, CO, PA, OH, FL and NV; Wicker opens wide lead

We start, as will now be customary, with the three states that we should be watching over this closing week: Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. New polls were released today in each and they find Obama in command: He extends his lead by 3% in the latest Insider Advantage poll of Colorado, leads by 9% in Virginia and has a sizable edge in three Pennsylvania surveys (7% to 12%). That said, both Insider Advantage and Rasmussen suggest that there might be some tightening in the Keystone State, and Obama is no longer enjoying consistent double-digit leads.

It is a testament to just how huge a lead he had seized that he remains so firmly in command of Pennsylvania despite shedding nearly half of his lead in Rasmussen’s survey. And it is also a testament to Obama’s remarkably strong electoral map that he has so many other options even if McCain somehow manages to pull off one of the three states listed above.

If Obama were to lose Pennsylvania, for instance, Nevada would suffice to compensate - and two new polls out today show Obama leading outside of the margin of error and by as much as 10%. Keep in mind that the demographics of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are very similar, so a comeback in the former wouldn’t mean that McCain is coming back in the three latter ones. McCain trails outside of the MoE in two new polls of Ohio (4% and 9%) and two new polls of Florida (5% and 7%). McCain still has a lot of work to do in all of these states.

As has been the case over the past few days, the tightest contests are taking place in states that Obama does not need: Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia and… Arizona are all within the margin of error in new polls. Losing any of these would be a catastrophe for the GOP.

McCain supporters can at least take comfort in the composite of the tracking polls, as McCain continues to close the gap after already tightening the race somewhat yesterday. But he continues to trail, and a Pew national poll taken over the same period finds disastrous numbers for McCain (I don’t believe McCain had ever trailed by 16% in a poll before). On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Obama leads 53% to 38% in a national Pew poll conducted Thursday through Monday; the margin is 16% with registered voters. 74% of Obama’s supporters describe themselves as “strong” supporters, versus 56% of McCain’s. Obama leads among men, women, every age group, independents and by 19% among early voters.
  • Obama leads 50% to 45% in an ARG national poll thanks to 83% of Democrats and a 12% lead among independents.
  • McCain makes some progress in the latest tracking polls: He gains 3% in Gallup (51-44, and only 49-47 in the LVT model), 1% in Research 2000 (50-43), 1% in Zogby (49-45). The race is stable in Hotline (50-42), Washington Post/ABC (52-45) and Rasmussen (51-46). Obama gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48-44). That means that Obama’s leads are: 4%, 4%, 5%, 7%, 7%, 7%, 8%.
  • Colorado: Obama leads 53% to 45% in a new Insider Advantage poll, based on his staggering 81% among Hispanics. Obama led by 5% last week. The poll was conducted on Sunday.
  • Pennsylvania: Obama leads 51% to 42% in an Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania; a separate IA poll of suburban Bucks County finds Obama leading by 3% (the same as Kerry), a 3% decline since a poll two weeks ago. This poll was conducted on Sunday. Obama leads 53% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll; that’s a drop from Obama’s 13% margin three weeks ago. No movement in the Morning Call tracking poll, however, where Obama leads 53% to 41%.
  • Virginia: Obama leads 48% to 39% in a Roanoke College poll. The poll was conducted over eight days, however, from the 19th through yesterday.
  • Ohio: Obama leads 49% to 40% in a new LAT/Bloomberg poll conducted Saturday through yesterday. (A fascinating internal: Obama wins white, working class voters 52% to 38%). Obama leads 49% to 45% in a SUSA poll conducted on Sunday and Monday. Obama led by 5% two weeks ago. He leads by 17% among the 22% of respondents who say they have already voted.
  • Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 40% in a Suffolk poll conducted from the 23rd through the 27th, with 2% for Barr and 1% each for McKinney and Nader. Obama leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll in which he led by 5% two weeks ago.
  • North Carolina: The candidates are tied at 47% in a week-end Mason Dixon/NBC poll. In a PPP poll of the 8th district, Obama leads by 6% which is a 14% swing since 2004, about what Obama needs statewide to win the state.
  • Indiana: Three polls in Indiana show a highly competitive race. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll (the candidates were tied three weeks ago.) McCain leads 47% to 45% in a Howey/Gauge poll. In a separate Research 2000 poll of IN-03, McCain leads 53% to 38% - which is great news for Obama since Bush won the district 68% to 31% (that’s a 22% swing towards Obama, essentially what he needs statewide to carry the state).
  • Montana: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a week-end Mason Dixon/NBC poll (I am not sure whether Ron Paul’s name was included).

Meanwhile, in down the ballot surveys:

  • Roger Wicker jumps to a big 54% to 43% lead in a Rasmussen poll of Mississippi’s Senate race. He only led by 2% in September.
  • Saxby Chambliss leads 46% to 44,5% in an Insider Advantage poll of Georgia’s Senate race, with 2% going to other (it looks like Buckley’s name was not included).
  • Jeff Merkley leads 45% to 40% in a Hibbits poll of Oregon’s Senate race conducted from the 22nd to the 25th. No mention of early voting, unfortunately.
  • Bev Perdue leads McCrory 47% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
  • In IN-03, GOP Rep. Souder leads 45% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll, with 4% going to Libertarian candidate Bill Larsen. In a Howey Gauge poll of the district, however, it is Democratic challenger Montagano who leads 44% to 41% (this latter poll has a large 6% MoE).
  • In NC-08, Larry Kissell leads GOP Rep. Hayes 51% to 46% in a PPP poll.
  • In OH-15, Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy leads 47% to 41% in a SUSA poll, with 6% going to conservative independent candidate Don Eckart. 37% of respondents say they have already voted, and Kilroy leads by 16%.
  • In GA-08, Democratic Rep. Marshall leads 49% to 45% in a SUSA poll. Marshall immediately released an internal poll showing him leading 48% to 31%.
  • In KS-03, Democratic Rep. Moore leads 53% to 42% in a SUSA poll.

The most important of the day’s congressional poll undoubtedly comes from Mississippi, where Republican Senator Roger Wicker jumps to a commanding lead - suggesting that Democrats might not be as close to a Senate sweep after all (Mississippi’s Senate race is currently ranked 9th in my Senate rankings). The Insider Advantage poll from Georgia, meanwhile, is further evidence that we might not get a resolution on November 4th, as both candidate are far from the 50% mark - especially since the Libertarian candidate was not even included as an option in this survey.

At the House level, Democratic taek-over opportunities in NC-08 and OH-15 (both rated lean Democratic in my latest ratings) continue to look good for Democratic, and the IN-03 numbers are outstanding: this is a massively Republican district that voted for Bush by 37% in 2004! It was on no one’s radar screen as of the end of September, and has now become a highly vulnerable district. If Rep. Souder falls, IN-03 will be remembered as one of the great upsets of the 2008 cycle.

SUSA’s GA-08 poll, however, is a reminder that there are a number of Democratic seats at risk as well. Marshall barely survived the 2006 cycle (in fact, he looked gone for much of the cycle), and it looks like this race might keep us late yet again.


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Poll watch: Obama needs one of Florida, Virginia and Colorado, leads in all three

The stage heading into the third and last presidential debate could not be more clear: polling results have been stable for much of the past two weeks, as Obama has seized a commanding position at the national level and at the state level. While McCain does get the occasional good news (if leads within the MoE in Missouri and West Virginia or only trailing within the MoE in Nevada and North Carolina) can be considered good news, but the path to an electoral college majority has never looked more daunting for the Arizona Senator.

At a time the GOP is scaling back its operations in its last remaining blue states, it has become more important than ever for McCain to hold on to every single red state but Iowa and New Mexico (where two new polls confirm Obama’s commanding position). And forget for a moment Missouri, West Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada (all states in which Obama looks to at worst be tied) as the bad news keeps accumulating for McCain in the three red states that are currently rated lean Obama in my presidential ratings.

First is Virginia, where CNN now finds Obama up double-digits (confirming SUSA and Suffolk findings from last week). Second is Colorado, where CNN finds Obama leading outside of the margin of error. The third is Florida, where three new surveys find Obama leading today, two of which have him ahead outside of the margin of error. This means that the past 13 polls of Florida all have shown Obama leading. The loss of any one of these three states would likely spell the end of McCain’s presidential ambitions, but it’s not like the GOP can pour resources here since it has so many other red states to defend.

  • Obama leads 49% to 42% in a Pew national poll. He led by 6% at the end of September. Among registered voters, he leads by 10% (up from 7%). Only 29% of respondents think McCain has done a good job explaining how he would respond to the financial crisis; 48% say Obama has done a good job.
  • The tracking polls, however, show Obama’s lead is a bit smaller than what it was a few days ago. He leads 50% to 45% in Rasmussen, 48% to 40% in Diego Hotline, 48% to 44% in Zogby, 51% to 40% in Research 2000. In Gallup, he leads by 7% among registered voters, 8% among the “expanded” likely voter model and only 3% among the traditional likely voter model.
  • Obama leads 53% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia. He led by 9% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Colorado. He led by the same margin two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Florida. He led by 4% last week.
  • Obama leads 48% to 44% in an Insider Advantage poll of Florida. He led by 3% last week. This is still within the poll’s large 5% MoE.
  • McCain leads 48% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Missouri. Obama was up by 1% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 52% to 45% in a SUSA poll of New Mexico. Obama gets more than 70% among Hispanics.
  • Obama leads 55% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. He led by 5% last month.
  • Safe states: McCain leads 55% to 41% in a SUSA poll of South Carolina. Obama leads 64% to 28% in a Rasmussen poll of Massachusetts. He leads 56% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Illinois.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot surveys:

  • Christine Gregoire is up 48% to 47% in a SUSA poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race, the 8th straight SUSA poll to find this race within the MoE.
  • Tom Udall leads 58% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Mexico’s Senate race; he leads 57% to 37% in Rasmussen.
  • Perdue leads 45% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
  • In PA-11, yet another independent poll finds Rep. Kanjorski trailing, 40% to 35% according to Franklin & Marshall. That’s actually a slight improvement for Kanjorski, but an incumbent at 35% rarely wins.
  • In AL-05, Parker Griffith’s internal poll shows him ahead of his Republican opponent 46% to 38%.

No big surprises in the day’s down-the-ballot polling. Gregoire and Rossi have been locked in a dead heat in Washington for the past four years, while Udall is cruising in New Mexico. At the House level, independent surveys are finding Reichert leading against Burner but this is the second Democratic poll in a row to have her leading. As for PA-11, this poll That is actually a slight improvement for Kanjorski, but an incumbent at 35% rarely wins. Barletta is very well positioned to pick-up the seat for Republicans.


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Poll watch: Tracking polls diverge, Obama protects MN and WI, Chambliss leads by 6

As expected, few polls were released today, as it makes little sense for pollsters to release surveys conducted before the debate after it happened. The state-level numbers confirm what we have already been observing over the past two weeks: Obama’s surge is particularly strong in blue states. McCain was within striking distance in Minnesota, Wisconsin or New Jersey in mid-September, but Obama posts healthy leads in all three states in polls released today.

But today’s most important numbers are perhaps the tracking polls. For one, they will be used as base numbers to track the post-debate movement (all of the trackings released today were in the field before the debate). Second, after days of moving uniformly and finding very similar results, the tracking polls are showing surprisingly diverging trend lines today. On the one hand, Obama leads by double-digits in two of them: 51% to 41% in Research 2000 and most importantly 52% to 41% in Gallup (this is his biggest lead ever in Gallup’s tracking poll, which started tracking the race back in March). Obama is above above 50% in Rasmussen (51% to 45%). On the other hand, McCain closes the gap in Diego Hotline (45% to 44%, down from a 6% lead two days ago) and Zogby (47% to 45%).

There has been speculation that Hotline’s numbers are due to an unusually tight partisan breakdown of 2%, but their blog indicates that 41% of the sample was Democratic, 36% was Republican - that I believe is the breakdown they have been using for weeks. This could simply be due to an outlier sample on one of Hotline’s nights, or it could be due to some tightening in the race. As of now, the other trackings and state polls are not picking up signs of a McCain rise, but we will obviously be keeping close track of all of this in the coming days. On to the roundup of the day’s presidential polls:

  • Obama leads 47% to 40% in an Ipsos/McClatchy national poll. Obama leads by 15% when voters are asked who would do the best job on the economy.
  • McCain leads 49% to 46% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina. McCain led by 20% in an early September poll that looks to have been an outlier.
  • Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota. He led by 8% in the mid-September Rasmussen poll.
  • Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin. He led by 2% in mid-September.
  • McCain leads 53% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Georgia. He led by the same margin last month.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Elizabeth Dole manages a 44% to 43% lead in SUSA’s poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. Even though that is well within the MoE, this is her first lead in any poll since September 23rd.
  • Pat McCrory leads 46% to 45% in a SUSA poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.
  • Saxby Chambliss leads 50% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Georgia’s Senate race. He led by 7% last month.
  • Mitch Daniels leads 49% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race. He only led by 1% last week.
  • Jim Inhofe leads 53% to 40% in a TVPoll survey Oklahoma’s Senate race. The trendline favors Rice, but Inhofe is in command.
  • Minnesota Public Radio released a bizarre poll of the Minnesota Senate race to complement the presidential numbers it releases yesterday. From the 29th to the 1st (just before the VP debate), Coleman leads by 9%; in the 3 days after the VP debate, Franken leads by 41% to 37%. MPR attributes this to the financial crisis and the congressional response - but the only intervening event is the Senate’s approving the bailout, which is unlikely to have swung the election by 11%. Furthermore, the margin of error is a large 5% for both sets of results.
  • In NJ-03, Monmouth University shows GOP candidate Myers narrowly leading 44% to 41%. Monmouth had Republicans in the lead in NJ-07 yesterday.
  • In NH-01, Carol Shea Porter leads 42% to 35% against Jeb Bradley in a St. Anselm poll.
  • In CT-04, an old poll (taken from September 22nd to September 26th) has Chris Shays leading 41% to 31% - that’s a lot of undecided voters, an incumbent at 41% is not in good shape and this was only the beginning of the Democrats’ surge in polls.
  • In NV-02, a Research 2000 poll finds GOP Rep. Heller leading Jill Derby 48% to 41%. He led 47% to 42% in August.
  • In VA-05, GOP Rep. Goode leads Tom Perriello 55% to 42% in a SUSA poll. Goode led by 34% in August, so he lost a lot of ground but he remains firmly in command.

Senate: It’s difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota poll except that the race is volatile and too close to call - but we didn’t need another survey to tell us that. I am unsure why MPR felt the need to divide its sample in two with no apparent reason and small sample sizes. As we already knew, North Carolina’s Senate race is also highly competitive - though this poll certainly finds better news for Dole than the recent PPP survey that had her leading by 9%. As for the Georgia Senate race, it is undoubtedly more competitive than anyone thought it would be but Chambliss retains the advantage. Martin needs very strong African-American turnout and the DSCC’s involvement. He would have had a better shot had Obama stayed in the state.

House: The New Jersey open seats continue to defy expectations and see Republicans doing very well. Is that a product of New Jersey voters’ usual early reluctance to vote Democratic and can Adler and Stender close the deal among (the unusually high number of) undecided voters? As I explained this morning, Adler is now finding himself on the defensive. NH-01 is another interesting poll, as this is the second poll in a row after SUSA’s numbers to find Shea-Porter with a lead outside of the Moe, but she remains well under 50%.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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