Campaign Diaries

Over the past two cycles, Republicans lost 13 Senate seats (14 if Al Franken emerges victorious in Minnesota). And the GOP’s Senate nightmare is set to continue for the third cycle in a row: 2004 was a great year for Senate Republicans, so they have many more vulnerable seats to defend in 2010.

No matter what the political environment will be in two years, Republicans are looking to spend yet another cycle playing defense and Democrats are more likely than not to gain the one or two seats they will need to finally achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

The ramifications of Barack Obama’s victory have given the GOP new life in Delaware, Colorado, Illinois and New York, but that cannot obscure this simple statistic: Of the cycle’s 10 most vulnerable Senate seats, only two are currently in Democratic hands. Those are tough numbers for Republicans to face given how few seats they have already been left with.

That said, a number of Dem-held seats could become competitive under the right circumstances, and a tremendous recruiting job on the part of the NRSC would allow Republicans play offense. They have no room for error: They will need Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, John Hoeven in North Dakota, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Mike Castle in Delaware, Mark Kirk in Illinois. Such a dream team of Republican candidates would shuffle up the deck and put Democrats in a difficult position.

Even with such a dream team, however, it is unimaginable that the GOP could conquer a Senate majority. The GOP’s objective will be to position itself well for 2012, a natural time for offense and a cycle in which Democrats will have a disproportionate number of seats to defend due to their successes in 2000 and 2006.

Needless to say, 22 months remain before the 2010 Election, and a lot will happen recruitment and retirement-wise in the coming months. In fact, I can identify only three seats (ID, UT and NY [Schumer]) with no conceivable scenario under which they would be competitive. Even VT and CT could become interesting if popular Republican Governors jump in! Underlying these rankings, then, are dozens of assumptions: It is for instance very unlikely that Govs. Douglas and Rell will challenge Sens. Leahy and Dodd and it is more plausible that Gov. Sebelius runs. We should expect many surprises to dramatically shuffle these rankings throughout 2009.

For now, we can proceed with the following breakdown, with some uncertainty due to the unresolved Coleman-Franken race:

• Safe Democratic: 47-48
• Safe/Likely Democratic: 55-56
• Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic: 58-59
• Toss-ups: 3
• Safe/Likely/Lean Republican: 38-39
• Safe/Likely Republican: 33-34
• Safe Republican: 31-32

Outlook: A 1-5 seat gain for Democrats.

Toss-ups (3 R, 0 D)

1. Kentucky (Jim Bunning)

A former baseball star, Bunning has never fully grown into his politician costume - so much that Republicans would most certainly be helped if Bunning decided to retire. His failure to raise much money combined with his age (he will be 79 by the next Election Day) has sparked speculation that he will do so - and the NRSC is certainly hoping to get such good news.

Bunning won his first two terms in extremely tough races, by 0.5% in 1998 and 1.4% in 2004. No one was paying attention to that latter race until the closing weeks of the campaign. But Bunning’s numbers collapsed in the closing stretch due to a number of bizarre incidents and senior moments. There is no reason for Bunning not to repeat such faux pas this year, and his lack of stature makes him an appealing target - even a state that has been trending Republican.

A number of Democrats are likely to jump in the race whether or not Bunning runs for re-election (in fact, some declined to run against McConnell in 2008 hoping to have a clearer shot at Bunning). Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo (Bunning’s 2004 opponent) has acknowledged that he is looking at the race; other potential candidates include Rep. Chandler, who many consider as the strongest Democrat and state Auditor Crit Luallen.

2. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter)

Arlen Specter is one of the Senate’s most powerful Republican members, but he is also highly endangered - if he even chooses to run for re-election. Unfortunately for Republicans, an open seat would improve nothing: Unlike in Kentucky, the seat’s vulnerability is not related to the incumbent’s unpopularity and Specter’s retirement would only increase Democratic prospects.

If Specter chooses to seek another term, he could face as competitive a primary as a general election. Former Rep. Pat Toomey, who Specter defeated by less than 2% in a nasty primary in 2004, is considering another run; Toomey now heads the conservative Club for Growth and considers Specter a “Republican in Name Only.” Indeed, the incumbent has a moderate profile and his vote over the next two years could make him even more vulnerable to a challenge from the right (Democrats have high hopes for Specter to join them on card-checks, for instance). In addition, a significant number of moderate Republicans have left the party since 2004 and will be unable to vote for Specter in the state’s closed primary.

Democrats would love nothing more than to face Toomey in the general election, as they are convinced that he is too conservative to be elected statewide. But they are also confident about challenging Specter, and the Democratic primaries could be as entertaining as the GOP’s. Hardball host Chris Matthews is considering a run and should announce his intentions in the coming weeks; at least two House members, Reps. Allison Schwarz and Patrick Murphy, could also jump in. All would make strong challengers, and a number of polls have already found Specter and Matthews in a toss-up.

3. Florida (Open)

Unpopular Senator Mel Martinez knew he was the Democrats’ number 1 target in the next cycle and chose not to even try holding on to his seat. His mid-November retirement announcement throws a lifeline to Republicans who have a far stronger bench in the state than Democrats.

The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Jeb Bush. Jeb left the office in 2006 with high approval ratings and national ambitions, but he will have to deal with his unpopular last name. Republicans insist that Jeb has never been handicapped by his brother’s troubles, but this is somewhat disingenuous: Jeb has not faced voters since 2002, a year in which Dubya was still highly popular. It is difficult to know how formidable Jeb would be now that the Bush name has become so toxic.

Meanwhile, Democrats hope to recruit Alex Sink, the state CFO. Sink announced she would not run but Martinez’s unexpected retirement caused her to reconsider her decision; Sink has already met with DSCC officials in Washington. The consensus appears to be that Sink is unlikely to run if the race appears too difficult, so a Jeb candidacy could be enough to scare her away.

Both parties have many other potential candidates, but none that has enough stature to clear the primary field. In other words, both parties could feature divisive battles if Bush and Sink do not run, and this could be an important factor in the general election: Florida holds September primaries, leaving a bruised nominee very little time to turn around and contest the general election.

Lean Retention (6 R, 3 D)

4. Missouri (Kit Bond)

Kit Bond has won four senatorial elections in Missouri, but the highest share he ever received was 56% in 2004. That statistic alone sums up Bond’s vulnerability, and the incumbent could face a top-tier challenger in 2010 if the DSCC manages to recruit Secretary of State Robin Carnahan - the latest prodigy of Missouri’s illustrious political dynasty; a recent Research 2000 poll found Bond leading Carnahan by 4%. Other potential candidates include Robin’s brother Russ and
state Auditor Susan Montee.

That said, Bond can count on the once-bellwether state’s increasingly reliable Republican nature. That John McCain prevailed in Missouri when he lost in all other competitive states (including Indiana) suggests that the state GOP still knows how to win elections.

5. Colorado (Unknown)

Senator Ken Salazar’s appointment to the Interior Department complicates Democratic efforts to hold on to the seat, but Salazar was already up for re-election in 2010 and he himself looked vulnerable. Going forward, it is difficult to handicap the race before we know who Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will appoint as Salazar’s successor. Interestingly, the different contenders are split along more substantive lines than in Illinois and New York, by which I mean that differences in policy preferences and ideology are part of the Colorado conversation.

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper and Rep. John Salazar are conservative Democrats, and the former has antagonized unions; Rep. Ed Permlutter is closer to labor; former Senate candidate Ted Strickland is a top executive as a health insurance company; and state House Speaker Romanoff and Rep. Diana DeGette have a more liberal profile. Mark Udall demonstrated that CO can elect progressive Senator, but Ritter himself is conservative. That makes it difficult to imagine him choosing someone like DeGette and it might be enough to give the advantage to Hickenlooper.

Whichever Democrat Ritter chooses will have one major advantage in 2010: The GOP’s thin bench. The Republicans’ dream candidate is former Governor Bill Owen, yet Owens - who left office in 2006 - might no longer be formidable: A recent poll showed him handily defeated by Hickenlooper and Salazar. Not to mention that Owens passed on an open seat in 2008, so why would he now challenge an incumbent? Other potential Republican candidates include former Rep. McInnis, former football star John Elway and Rep. Tom Tancredo. (The latter faces clear electability issues in the general election, but Republicans are worried he would be hard to beat in the primary.)

6. New Hampshire (Judd Gregg)

Over the past three cycles, no state has shifted blue as dramatically as New Hampshire. In 2004, Democrats unexpectedly picked-up the governorship. In 2006, they shocked the political world by unseating the state’s two Republican House members and seizing both chambers of the state legislature. In 2008, Jeanne Shaheen toppled Senator Sununu, leaving Judd Gregg as the Democrats’ only target in what used to be a Republican stronghold.

A number of Democrats are looking at this race - perhaps too many. The DSCC’s dream candidate is popular Governor Lynch who just won re-election with 70% of the vote; however, Lynch has to seek re-election again in 2010 so he would have to give up the governor’s mansion to challenge Gregg. Two other candidates who are eying the race Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Hodes is often described as the strongest competitor, but Shea-Porter is regularly underestimated. She could prove a formidable candidate if she can repeat statewide her district-level exploits.

7. North Carolina (Richard Burr)

This is North Carolina’s cursed Senate seat: It has switched parties in the past five elections, and Democrats are hoping to prolong the streak by defeating freshman Senator Richard Burr. Democrats have a very deep bench in North Carolina. Most often mentioned are Attorney General Roy Cooper, former Attorney General Richard Moore, outgoing Governor Mike Easley, Rep. Heath Shuler. And the list goes on: Any number of contenders jumping in would make this a top-tier race. In fact, a recent PPP poll found Cooper leading Burr, a worrisome early sign of vulnerability for the incumbent.

Democratic hopes were surely boosted by the results of the 2008 election: Barack Obama, Beverly Perdue and Kay Hagan’s victories suggest that Democrats have identified a roadmap for statewide victory. And that will certainly help the DSCC recruit a top-tier challenger.

8. Nevada (Harry Reid)

It is hard to believe how much Harry Reid’s fortunes have improved since early November. Once considered one of the cycles most endangered incumbents, Reid enjoyed two strokes of luck when his top two potential challengers were damaged. First, Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki was indicted on charges of misappropriation and falsification of accounts; this all but eliminates him from the Senate race. Second, Rep. Jon Porter lost his House seat, 48% to 42%; he is still considering a Senate run, but he will have a harder time mounting a solid and well-financed campaign.

That said, Reid remains highly vulnerable and for a very simple reason: He is deeply unpopular. A recent Research 2000 poll showed him with an approval rating of 38%; that’s deadly territory. The GOP might not have enough of a bench to guarantee a top-tier challenger, but Reid could be defeated by any credible Republicans. That same Research 2000 poll showed Reid leading Porter 46% to 40%; needless to say, it is not a good sign for the Senate Majority Leader to only manage such a narrow lead against someone who lost with barely 42% of the vote in his own re-election race.

9. Louisiana (David Vitter)

This is perhaps the most perplexing race of the cycle, and it is no surprise that it is occurring in the state that hosted the most perplexing contest of the past cycle (Landrieu-Kennedy). Once considered a rising Republican star, David Vitter would have had nothing to worry about if he had not gotten mixed up in the D.C Madam’s prostitution ring; last year, Vitter was forced to issue an apology and acknowledge a “very serious sin.”

In any other state, that might be enough to end a politician’s career. But once proudly Democratic Louisiana has given itself almost entirely to the Republican Party - so much so that there is only one Democrat left in the House delegation and Senator Mary Landrieu only prevailed by 5% in 2008 despite Democratic assurances that she was in no real danger.

Is there a Democrat who could rise to take advantage of Vitter’s scandal? Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu is a Democrat - but he is also Mary’s brother, and it is doubtful any state would elect two siblings as its Senators. The DSCC’s recruiters will surely start with Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and Rep. Charlie Melancon. But they will have to first answer this simple question: Can Democrats still win a truly contested election in post-Katrina Louisiana?

10. Ohio (George Voinovich)

The first question mark is whether Senator George Voinovich (a two-term Senator who served two gubernatorial terms in the 1990s) runs for re-election. Retirement rumors have been swirling, and an early exit would dramatically alter the field of play. Ohio is one of the country’s closest swing states, so we would surely be treated to a top-notch Senate battle.

For now, however, Voinovich has been preparing for another run: he already has more than $2.5 million in the bank! This does not mean that Democrats will be scared away. They have made big gains in the state over the past two cycles, conquering most of the statewide offices, defeating a Republican Senator in 2006 and picking-up four House seats. A number of Democrats could make this race a top-tier contest, starting with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Rep. Tim Ryan.

11. Kansas (Open)

The situation created by Sam Brownback’s retirement is strikingly simple. Either term-limited Democratic Governor Sebelius jumps in and this race skyrockets to the top of the rankings; or she stays away and Democrats have no hope of winning their first Kansas Senate race in since 1936.

For now, the DSCC has reason to hope: Sebelius looked certain to join Obama’s Administration and a Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running. But her decision to abruptly withdraw her name from consideration increased the speculation that she is looking to jump in the Senate race.

Republicans, meanwhile, are preparing for a heated primary between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran has already announced his candidacy while Tiahrt is only mulling a run. Both have a conservative profile, but their opposition could ignite the Kansas GOP’s famously nasty ideological split with Tiahrt in the role of the movement conservative. This would help Sebelius’s general election prospects.

12. Illinois (Unknown)

The Blagojevich scandal has injected complete chaos in this race. The only thing we know for sure is that there will be an election in November 2010. What we do not know is whether there will be an election before then.

Over the past week, Democrats have been backing away from calling a special election to fill Barack Obama’s seat, meaning that the most likely scenario is for the seat to remain vacant until Democrats manage to remove Blagojevich from office. It would then be up to currently-Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn to appoint a Senator - either a caretaker or a Democrat willing to run for re-election in 2010. It is impossible to handicap the race before knowing who Quinn might appoint.

But all bets are off if there is enough pressure for Democrats to be forced to call a special election in the spring of 2009, stripping the Governor of his appointment powers. A special election would be a wonderful opportunity for Republicans to pick-up a Senate seat: Democrats face a divisive primary, their nominee would be plagued by the taint of the Blagojevich scandal, and GOP Reps. Kirk and Roskam could jump in the race without having to fear losing their House seats.

Likely retention (8 D, 2 R)

13. California (Barbara Boxer)

California’s 2010 gubernatorial election is an open race since Arnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited. This is both good news and bad news for Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer. On the one hand, Schwarzenegger is free to challenge Boxer. On the other hand, ambitious California Republicans are far more likely to try their luck in the gubernatorial race - meaning that Arnold could be all Boxer has to worry about. Whether this race is competitive, then, is likely to depend on the Governator’s decision.

That said, the first obstacle to an Arnold candidacy could be the GOP primary, as a conservative Republican could try and derail him. Arnold has angered conservative during his gubernatorial tenure, and California’s Republican primaries have tended to be a minefield for moderates. Another factor could be Diane Feinstein’s possible gubernatorial candidacy. This could lead Arnold to wait for Feinstein’s Senate seat to open up rather than challenge Boxer.

14. Delaware (Open)

This race is a special election that is being held because of Joe Biden’s resignation. The state’s Governor appointed a caretaker (longtime Biden aide Edward Kaufman) in an obvious effort to save the seat for state Attorney General Beau Biden, who is currently serving in Iraq. This transparently nepotistic maneuver has angered the entourage of outgoing Lieutenant Governor Carney, who was hoping to get the appointment. Kaufman has already confirmed that he will not seek re-election in 2010, so Delaware Democrats could be treated to a contentious primary battle between Carney and Beau.

The GOP’s only shot at the seat is to recruit Rep. Mike Castle, a popular Republican who has represented the state’s at-large seat since 1992. If Castle passes on the race (he is old and with health issues), the Democratic primary will likely decide the final winner; if Castle jumps in, we could have a highly competitive and somewhat unpredictable race on our hands.

15. Hawaii (Daniel Inouye)

The most relevant question in this race is not whether Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye will run for re-election but whether Republican Governor Linda Lingle will attempt to move to Washington. Lingle is term-limited and cannot stay in the Governor’s mansion past 2010, so she has nothing to lose by attempting a senatorial run. The GOP has no bench in Hawaii and Lingle’s victory in 2002 was a breakthrough for state Republicans. Lingle is popular enough that she would be a very credible Senate candidate.

That said, Hawaii remains a staunchly Democratic state, and for a Republican to win a federal state is a difficult proposition. Lingle would face a particularly uphill climb if she faces Inouye, who has been serving in Congress since Hawaii achieved statehood in the 1950s. Inouye would be running for his ninth term in 2010, at age 86, and he recently announced that he would run again.

The GOP’s best case scenario is for Inouye to retire and Lingle to jump in the race - and even then Hawaii’s overwhelming blueness would make the race no better than a toss-up for the GOP. If Lingle faces Inouye, she would have a shot at an upset but Inouye would start as the very clear favorite. And if Lingle does not run, the seat will quickly fall down the rankings.

16. New York (Unknown)

This race is a special election to fill the reminder of Hillary’s Clinton term; the winner will face re-election again in 2012. It is difficult to handicap the race until Governor Paterson announces his pick sometime after Hillary Clinton is confirmed as Secretary of State in January - though I have repeatedly cautioned not to regard Caroline Kennedy as the most electable option. Her campaigning skills are so untested and her public record is so small that she could prove an electoral disaster just as easily as a political goldmine. There is also the possibility that Paterson appoint a caretaker who would not run for re-election in 2010.

Any Democratic candidate would be helped by the simple fact that New York’s Republican Party is moribund, and there are few Republicans who can hope to be competitive statewide. One is Rudy Giuliani, but after his catastrophic presidential campaign the former New York City Mayor no longer looks formidable; Giuliani is also said to be more interested in a gubernatorial run.

Another Republican who is openly considering the Senate race is Rep. Peter King, one of the state’s three remaining Republican House members. King would undoubtedly be a credible enough candidate to exploit any Democratic mistakes, particularly if Paterson appoints a political novice; but this is New York, and King is unlikely to get very far without Democratic help.

17. Iowa (Chuck Grassley)

Tom Vilsack’s nomination as Secretary of Agriculture clarified the situation in this race by removing from consideration the only Democrat who would have given five-term Senator Chuck Grassley a run for his money. If Grassley runs again, he is unlikely to face a difficult race; but Grassley is on everyone’s retirement watch - and an open seat in this increasingly blue state would become one of the Democrats’ top takeover opportunity.

18. North Dakota (Byron Dorgan)

Like Kansas and Hawaii, the competitiveness of this race is contingent on the candidacy of one man and one man only: Governor John Hoeven. If Hoeven declines to run, popular Democratic incumbent Byron Dorgan will cruise towards re-election. If Hoeven jumps in the race, this will become a battle of political titans.

Despite the state’s Republican lean, Dorgan is a popular incumbent with the advantage of seniority (not to mention that he is the chairman of the Appropriations subcommittee on energy and water issues). And North Dakota is not as reliably red as it once was: John McCain did end up winning the state, but Obama mounted a very solid effort. Will that be enough to scare Hoeven away?

19. Washington (Patty Murray)

In 2004, Republicans made a lot of noise about challenging Patty Murray and they extensively touted their candidate, Rep. Nethercutt. But in what was otherwise a good year for Senate Republicans, the often-underestimated Murray easily won re-election. Since then, Washington has grown even more reliably Democratic, giving Barack Obama a crushing margin over John McCain and handing Governor Gregoire an easier-than-expected victory in 2008. The GOP’s bench in the state is stretched thin, and there is little reason for the party’s few credible potential candidates - Rep. Reichert, for instance - to try their luck.

20. Wisconsin (Russ Feingold)

Senator Russ Feingold is a perennial Republican target, though he won a relatively easy re-election race in 2004. To make this race competitive, the GOP would need to find a very strong recruit and hope that the national environment pushes them. After all, Feingold is a longtime Democratic incumbent sitting in a blue state - and one in which Barack Obama crushed John McCain. Unfortunately for Republicans, they have a weak bench in Wisconsin. Potential candidates include state Attorney General John Van Hollen and Rep. Paul Ryan, a rising Republican star who is only 38 and might not want to endanger his career in such a difficult race.

21. Arizona (John McCain)

There is no question that Senator John McCain is vulnerable. He failed to get 50% in last spring’s Super Tuesday Republican primary and he ended up winning the state by single-digits against Barack Obama after being forced to schedule an emergency last-minute campaign stop. That said, McCain looks relatively secure. For one, McCain remains a force in Arizona politics and he now has two years to reestablish his popularity with independents.

Second, Governor Janet Napolitano’s nomination as Barack Obama’s Homeland Security Secretary removed McCain’s top potential challenger - and one that was already handily defeating him in early polls. Third, most ambitious Democrats are likely to jump in the gubernatorial race rather than launch an unlikely challenge to McCain. A retirement would naturally dramatically alter the playing field, but for now McCain has been positioning himself to run for re-election.

22. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln)

In 2008, Arkansas Republicans did not even field a candidate against Democratic Senator Mark Pryor. Can they do better against Blanche Lincoln, who will run for a third term in 2010? The state has been clearly drifting in the GOP column, and Republicans desperately want to contest this seat. That said, Arkansas remains a reliably Democratic state at the local level, and the Republican bench is very weak. That explains why the race is ranked so low.

Some Republican names have been circulating - most notably that of interim prosecutor Tom Griffin, who was involved in the US Attorney’s scandal two years ago. (The GOP’s dream candidate is former Governor Mike Huckabee, but he is too wrapped up in preparations for a 2012 presidential run to risk it all in a difficult Senate race.)

Safe

23. Georgia (Johnny Isakson)

Saxby Chambliss’s re-election race suggested that Democrats have a path to unseating Republican incumbents in the Peach State (Martin received 46% of the first round vote) but it also demonstrated how red a state Georgia remains (Chambliss crushed Martin by 15% in the runoff). In 2010, Democrats might not suffer from as abysmal a turnout of their share as they did on December 2nd, but the share of the African-American vote is unlikely to be as high as it was on November 4th - and Democrats still have no clear roadmap to winning statewide races in Georgia.

They have no obvious candidate either. A recent PPP poll found Isakson under 50% against two potential challengers, Rep. Jim Marshall and Attorney General Thurbert Baker. There is little pointing to either considering a run.

24. South Carolina (Jim DeMint)

A Senator’s first re-election campaign is always the trickiest one, which is the only reason to think Democrats have any hope of unseating Jim DeMint. South Carolina is a heavily Republican state in federal races and it has gone increasingly red at the state-level as well, meaning that Democrats have a thin bench and no obvious candidate.

25. Alaska (Lisa Murkowski)

In 2008, Alaska proved that it was one of the most reliably Republican states of the country. Embattled GOP Rep. Don Young scored one of the biggest upsets of the cycle by defeating top Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz, and convicted felon Ted Stevens came within a few points of winning re-election. Sure, Young and Stevens are both towering titans of Alaskan politics - a title Lisa Murkowski cannot claim. But it would take nothing short of a Murkowski indictment for Democrats to have a shot - and even then, they have a rather thin bench.

On the other hand, the Republican primary could be one of the most entertaining races of the cycle if Sarah Palin decides to challenge Murkowski. (The GOP’s former vice-presidential nominee defeated Lisa’s father Frank in the 2006 gubernatorial primary, and one of the reasons Frank Murkowski was so unpopular then was that he appointed his daughter Lisa to replace him in the Senate.)

26. Maryland (Mikulski)

If longtime Senator Barbara Mikulski runs for re-election, she will be unlikely to face a serious Republican opponent: She is an entrenched incumbent in a solidly Democratic state. But Mikulski is rumored to be eying retirement. An open seat could create a competitive race, though Democrats would start with the upper-hand.

27. Oregon (Ron Wyden)

Democratic Senator Ron Wyden is finishing his second full term, and it’s hard to see him in much danger in 2010. First, Wyden is a popular incumbent - so popular, in fact, that Republican Senator Gordon Smith touted his relationship with Wyden in his 2008 campaign ads. Second, Oregon reconnected with its reliably Democratic roots this year, giving Barack Obama a huge victory and making it that much more difficult to envision a GOP comeback.

It’s unlikely Wyden will attract top opposition; Gordon Smith might be the only credible Republican candidate, but how could he defeat an incumbent he himself praised when he couldn’t win his own re-election race?

28. Alabama (Richard Shelby)

First elected as a Democrat in 1986, Senator Shelby switched parties in 1994. Since then, the South has become the GOP’s only safe refuge and Democrats have had a tough time in Alabama. That said, they performed exceptionally well in 2008, picking-up AL-02 and holding on to conservative AL-05. Ambitious state Democrats - like Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, Rep. Arthur Davis and Rep. Bobby Bright - are more likely to jump in the gubernatorial race than to challenge Shelby.

29. South Dakota (John Thune)

Democrats would love to defeat freshman Senator John Thune, but it’s difficult to see who could defeat Tom Dashle’s 2004 slayer. Often mentioned as a future presidential or vice-presidential candidate, Thune represents a staunchly Republican state and he already had $3,730,617 in the bank at the end of the third quarter of 2008. Furthermore, he no longer has to worry about Dashle seeking a rematch since the former Senate Majority Leader is now Obama’s HHS Secretary. One potential Democratic candidate is Rep. Stephanie Herseth, who is said to be eying a higher position. But Herseth would be much better served running for Governor or waiting for Tim Johnson’s retirement from the state’s other Senate seat.

30. Indiana (Evan Bayh)

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh is a popular - and very entrenched - incumbent who is unlikely to draw serious Republican opposition. He served two terms as Governor and then won two senatorial elections - in 1998 and in 2004. And if this was not enough to keep potential challengers at bay, he enters 2009 with a huge war chest: As of September 30th, Bayh had $11 million of cash on hand.

Furthermore, Indiana is no longer the staunchly conservative state of Bayh’s first election: Barack Obama stunningly prevailed in the state, a shift of 21% since the 2004 election. The hundreds of thousands of new registrants that have now been brought into the mix will help all Indiana Democrats in the years ahead.

31. Oklahoma (Tom Coburn)

In any other state, as conservative and controversial a Senator as Tom Coburn would be in grave danger. But Oklahoma became the country’s reddest state in 2008: John McCain won every single county and Senator Inhofe demolished promising Democratic state Senator Andrew Rice. The only threat to Coburn’s reelection is Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who will be term-limited out his job in 2010. Unfortunately for the DSCC, Henry has rather emphatically declared that he is unlikely to run for Senate, citing the stress it would put on his family life.

32. Connecticut (Chris Dodd)

Democratic Senator Chris Dodd’s approval ratings are not particularly high (48% in a recent Quinnipiac poll) and his position on the Senate’s Banking Committee could give Republicans an opening to link him to the financial mess. That said, Connecticut is a heavily Democratic state, Dodd is a five-term incumbent and Republicans have no obvious candidate other than Governor Jodi Rell. This is a similar situation as in Vermont: Rell is up for re-election in 2010, so she would have to give up her relatively safe job for a very difficult race.

33. Vermont (Pat Leahy)

Now that Democrats are durably in the majority, Democratic Senator Pat Leahy gets to chair the Senate’s Judiciary Committee - and for that reason alone he is likely to run for re-election in 2010. The only Republican who could potentially cause him some headaches is Governor Jim Douglas. But Douglas has to run for re-election in 2010, so why would he abandon his relatively safe job for a quixotic effort to topple Leahy?

34. New York (Chuck Schumer)

The Empire State’s Republican Party is moribund, Chuck Schumer is a popular Democratic incumbent with remarkable fundraising skills and, to the extent that any credible Republicans with statewide ambitions can be found, they are far more likely to jump in the two other New York races that will be on the ballot in 2010: the gubernatorial race and the special election for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat.

35. Idaho (Mike Crapo)

In 2004, Senator Mike Crapo won re-election with more than 99% of the vote as he was running opposed. Finding a candidate to run would already represent progress for Democrats.

36. Utah (Bob Bennett)

Three-term Senator Bob Bennett will remain Utah’s Senator for as long as he wants to be.

Here is guide to follow tonight’s results, with every race that will be worth calling tonight arranged by poll closing time. In addition to the 51 separate presidential match-ups, 35 Senates seats and 11 gubernatorial contests, this list includes a grand total of 109 House races! (A more detailed guideline of what to expect - and a call for prediction - here.)

Of course, not all congressional contests are born equal, so I have colored all Senate, House and Governor races that are rated in the most vulnerable categories (anywhere from lean retention to likely take-over) so you can get a better sense of where to focus your attention. Keep an eye especially on Florida, Ohio and New York as there are a lot of tight House races in those three states.

Most of the attention will likely be devoted to the presidential race, however. But I do not see the point in predicting what each candidate needs to accomplish at the different hours. These times indicate when polls close, not at what time we should expect to get results. Some states - some counties! - are extremely slow at reporting, others are much quicker. If Obama wins Indiana, for instance, it is unlikely he can pull ahead before Gary Lake County reports - and we learned on May 6th that Gary Lake County does not like to report any results before the rest of the country has been reduced to hysteria because of the excruciating wait. That said, we should know fairly quickly whether we are heading towards an Obama landslide or if results are much tighter than polls predicted.

6pm ET

• Kentucky (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Senate, KY-02, KY-03
• Indiana (parts of the state close at 7pm ET): President, Governor, IN-03, IN-08, IN-09

7pm ET

• Florida (panhandle closes at 8pm ET): President, FL-08, FL-13, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, Question 1 (marriage amendment)
• Georgia: President, Senate, GA-08, GA-12
• New Hampshire (in some localities, option to keep polls open until 8pm): President, Senate, Governor, NH-01, NH-02
• South Carolina: President, Senate, SC-01, SC-02
• Vermont: President, Governor
• Virginia: President, Senate, VA-02, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11

7:30pm ET

• North Carolina (county boards have right to keep polls open until 8:30): President, Senate, Governor, NC-05, NC-08, NC-10
• Ohio: President, OH-01, OH-02, OH-07, OH-14, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18
• West Virginia: President, Senate, Governor, WV-02

8pm ET

• Alabama: President, Senate, AL-02, AL-03, AL-05
• Connecticut: President, CT-04, CT-05
• Delaware: President, Senate, Governor
• DC: President
• Illinois: President, Senate, IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, IL-18
• Maine: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district), Senate, ME-02
• Maryland: President, MD-01
• Massachusetts: President, Senate, Question 1 (income tax)
• Michigan: President, Senate, MI-07, MI-08, MI-09
• Mississippi: President, Senate A, Senate B, MS-01
• Missouri: President, Governor, MO-06, MO-09
• New Jersey: President, Senate, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07
• Oklahoma: President, Senate
• Pennsylvania: President, PA-03, PA-04, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, PA-15, PA-18
• Tennessee: President, Governor
• Texas (El Paso area closes at 9pm ET): President, Senate, TX-07, TX-10, TX-22, TX-23

8:30pm ET

• Arkansas: President, Senate

9pm ET

• Arizona: President, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, marriage amendment
• Colorado: President, Senate, CO-04, Amendment 46 (affirmative action), Amendment 48 (definition of “person”)
• Kansas: President, Senate, KS-02, KS-03
• Louisiana: President, Senate, LA-04, LA-06, LA-07
• Minnesota: President, Senate, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MN-06
• Nebraska: President (at large, 1st district, 2nd district, 3rd district), Senate, NE-02
• New Mexico: President, Senate, NM-01, NM-02
• New York: President, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, state Senate
• Rhode Island: President, Senate
• South Dakota: President, Senate, Initiated Measure 11 (abortion)
• Wisconsin: President, WI-08
• Wyoming: President, Senate A, Senate B, WY-AL

10pm ET

• Idaho (parts of the state close at 11pm ET): President, ID-01
• Iowa: President, Senate, IA-04
• Montana: President, Senate, Governor
• Nevada: President, NV-02, NV-03
• North Dakota: President, Governor
• Utah: President, Governor

11pm ET

• California: President, CA-03, CA-04, CA-11, CA-26, CA-45, CA-46, CA-50, Prop 1 (transit), Prop 4 (parental notification), Prop 8 (gay marriage)
• Hawaii: President
• Oregon: President, Senate, OR-05
• Washington: President, Governor, WA-05, WA-08

1am ET

• Alaska: President, Senate, AK-AL
  

Note on closing times: Polls in some states do not close at the same time, either because of differing time zones or because of longer hours in urban areas. I have here listed these state at the time we should expect to start seeing the first results, not the time at which all polls close. In Florida, for instance, networks might not want to make any calls before all polls close at 8pm ET, but if past patterns hold today some counties should start releasing totals after 7pm ET. I have tried to indicate in which states such problems can arise.

As is expected the Friday before an election, we were treated with a deluge of polls at the presidential and Senate level today, making this quite a large edition of poll watch.

It is hard to make sense of 44 presidential polls from 19 different states at once, though the fact that seven of them come from New Hampshire and find a similar result makes things far easier. These polls are also important to go over, as they were almost all conducted entirely this week (many of the state surveys that we had been considering over the past few days, whether CNN/Time, AP/GfK or Quinnipiac were taken over the week-end).

Taken together, these polls detect no sign of tightening, whether nationally (Obama is at or above 50% in five out of eight national polls and McCain is above 45% in only survey) or at the state level. In fact, it is McCain’s base that keeps eroding rather than Obama’s: We have now gotten used to seeing Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina dead-locked - if not slightly leaning in Obama’s direction - but it is stunning to see that McCain can no longer muster a lead outside of the margin of error in Arizona, Montana or North Dakota. That’s right, we have now bee treated to half-a-dozen polls this week alone that have shown McCain collapsing in his home state - with Research 2000 showing him leading by only 1%.

Obama continues to dominate in polls from the Big Three states. No new survey from Virginia was released today, but two polls from Colorado suggest that McCain might already have lost the state given that nearly half of all registered voters have already cast their ballot and Obama is leading by 7% and 10% overall in those two surveys. Obama’s huge lead among independents in almost all recent Colorado polls confirm that Western independents are likely to vote Obama; that should also help him in Nevada and in the Mountain West.

However, there might be some signs of Obama’s weakening in Pennsylvania. He remains in a dominant position, but not as clearly as he did just two weeks ago. After Mason Dixon’s 4% margin yesterday, Strategic Vision has Obama ahead by 5% today after showing him leading by 14% three weeks ago and 9% last week; and while Obama is ahead by 10% in Morning Call’s tracking, it is the first time in a more than a month that McCain has reached 43%. Because there is no early voting in Pennsylvania, it remains conceivable that McCain can pull it off - but it is obviously extremely difficult to close such a gap in the final three days.

The problem for McCain, of course, is that Obama would only have to sweep Nevada, Colorado and Virginia and Pennsylvania would not matter. Or, for that matter, could he ensure victory by picking up just one of the many other vulnerable red states: Out of six polls of Missouri, North Carolina and Indiana today, McCain leads only in one - and that’s within the margin of error and based on Obama’s low 65% among blacks. And there really is no other blue state McCain can hope to pick up. He trails widely in seven New Hampshire polls today, as well as by double digits in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan:

• Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Marist national poll conducted entirely on Tuesday. Marist had not conducted a national survey since the end of September, when Obama led by 5%.

• Trackings: Obama gains 2% in Gallup (52% to 43%; he gains 3% in the RV and LVT models to seize an 11% and 8% lead, respectively), 1% in Hotline (48% to 41%), Washington Post/ABC (53% to 44%) and Research 2000 (51% to 45%). The race is stable in IBD/TIPP (47% to 43%) and in Zogby (50% to 43%). Obama loses 1% in Rasmussen (51% to 47%). Obama’s leads thus are: 4%, 4%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 9%, 9%.

• Colorado: Obama leads 54% to 44% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. (Early voters make up 65% of respondents (!), and they go for Obama by 17% - meaning that all he needs is 35% of remaining voters. Obama leads 60% to 36% among independents.) Obama leads 52% to 45% in an ARG poll conducted over the same period; he leads by 13% among independents. (McCain had a 3% lead five weeks ago.)

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Monday through Wednesday (he led by 7% last week and by 14% three weeks ago). Obama leads 53% to 43% in the Morning Call tracking poll.

• North Carolina: Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The candidates are tied at 48% in an Insider Advantage poll conducted Tuesday. Obama leads 47% to 46% in the final Civitas poll taken Monday through Wednesday (down from a 3% lead).

• Missouri: McCain leads 50% to 47% in an Insider Advantage poll conducted yesterday. The candidates are tied at 47% in an ARG poll taken from Tuesday through Thursday.

• Indiana: The candidates are tied at 47% in a SUSA poll, though Obama leads by 32% among early voters. Obama led by 4% last week.

• New Hampshire: Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday. He leads 53% to 42% in a SUSA poll conducted over the past two days. Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll conducted Monday through Wednesday. Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll conducted over the past three days. Obama leads 56% to 41% in an ARG poll taken over the same period. He leads 53% to 40% in a Suffolk poll. Obama leads 53% to 39% in the UNH tracking poll.

• New Mexico: Obama leads 58% to 41% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

• Minnesota: Obama leads 57% to 41% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

• Wisconsin: Obama leads 53% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.

• Georgia: McCain leads 52% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday (the same margin as last week). He leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday; he led by 6% two weeks ago. He trails by 15% among early voters.

• Montana: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 4% also two weeks ago. Ron Paul was not included. McCain leads 49% to 46% in an ARG poll taken over the same period.

• North Dakota: McCain leads 47% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll. The candidates were tied two weeks ago.

• Arizona: McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll conducted from Tuesday through Thursday. Obama leads by 12% among early voters. McCain leads 50% to 46% in an ARG poll conducted over the same period.

• Michigan: Obama leads 55% to 42% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday. Obama leads 50% to 38% in an EPIC-MRA poll conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (Obama led by 14% the week before). Obama leads 54% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll.

• West Virginia: McCain leads 55% to 42% in a PPP poll. That’s a 5% expansion over a poll released two weeks ago.

• Oregon: Obama leads 57% to 42% in a PPP poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

• New Jersey: Obama leads 53% to 35% in a Farleigh Dickinson poll. Obama leads 52% to 42% in SUSA.

• Alaska: McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll.

• Mississippi: McCain leads 53% to 40% in Research 2000. Obama receives 13% of the white vote.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot surveys, where we got a staggering number of surveys today:

• The Field poll of California has Proposition 8 losing 49% to 44% - that’s a slight narrowing from the September survey, and the vote certainly remains close.

• Georgia, Senate race: GOP Senator Chambliss leads 47% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll, with 5% going to Buckley. Among early voters, Jim Martin leads by 17%, however. (The poll has a problem, however: Only 12% of the sample is made up of early voters even though more than a third of registered voters have already cast their ballot.) Chambliss leads 48% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll, an improvement over his 2% lead last week; Allen Buckley gets 7%.
• An older CNN/Time poll, however, has Chambliss leading by 9% (53-44) among likely voters and by 1% (48-47) among registered voters. The CNN poll is worthless, as it is ridiculous not to include a third-party candidate when a candidate has to cross 50% to win.

• North Carolina, Senate race: Kay Hagan leads 50% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll; she led by 4% two weeks ago. 45% to 43% in the final Civitas poll. Hagan leads 53% to 44% in a CNN poll taken earlier (from the 23rd to the 28th).

• Mississippi, Senate race: GOP Senator Roger Wicker takes a 51% to 44% lead in a Research 2000 poll. He led by only 1% two weeks ago.

• Minnesota, Senate race: Al Franken leads 45% to 40%, with 14% for Barkley in a PPP poll. In this poll (contrary to those that were released yesterday), Barkley draws about equally from both parties. Al Franken also leads 41% to 37% in a new MPR poll.

• Oregon, Senate race: Jeff Merkley leads 51% to 43% in a PPP poll, with 4% going to Dave Brownlow. 59% of respondents say they have already voted, and Merkley leads by 22% among them… Merkley leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll.

• Alaska, Senate race: Mark Begich leads 58% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll conducted after Stevens’ conviction.

• New Hampshire, Senate race: Four new polls find Jeanne Shaheen poised to pick-up the seat. She leads 52% to 44% in a new Rasmussen poll. She leads 53% to 40% in a new SUSA poll (up from an 8% lead three weeks ago). She leads 48% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll. She leads 52% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. Shaheen leads 53% to 41% in an ARG poll conducted over the past three days. She leads 48% to 41% in the UNH tracking poll.

• Colorado, Senate race: Mark Udall leads 56% to 41% in a PPP poll; he leads 60% to 38% among those who have already voted. Udall leads 53% to 43% in a CNN poll.

• North Carolina, gubernatorial race: Bev Perdue leads 45% to 43% in the final Civitas poll. She leads 49% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll.

• Safe(r) seats: Tom Udall leads 58% to 39% in a PPP poll of New Mexico. Frank Lautenberg leads 52% to 37% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.

• In AK-AL, Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz leads 53% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.

• In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter extends her lead to a 49% to 42% advantage in a new Research 2000 poll. She leads 46% to 41% in the UNH tracking poll.

In this avalanche of Senate news from a number of competitive races, most of the good news goes to Democrats. The two Udalls confirm their domination, and Jeanne Shaheen is poised to pick up the New Hampshire Senate seat as she posts leads ranging from 7% to 13% in six separate surveys. Mark Begich could join them and put Alaska in the easy pick-up column according to this second post-conviction poll, though I would still warn against underestimating Stevens.

In Oregon, Jeff Merkley appears to be closing the deal. Oregon’s mail-in voting system means more than half of the state’s voters have already sent in their ballot and Gordon Smith might already have lost his seat. Elizabeth Dole’s situation might be a bit better, and she has a few more days to recapture momentum. But early voting turnout is huge in North Carolina, leaving her with a reduced pool of voters who could still change their vote. Today’s polls (as with most surveys that have been released over the past few weeks) leave little doubt that Hagan is favored - albeit only narrowly.

That leaves us with Mississippi, Georgia, and Minnesota, three highly competitive seats where the situation still looks very confusing. In Mississippi, Research 2000’s survey is the second poll this week to find Roger Wicker opening up a large lead, suggesting that this seat is slipping away from Democrats. Sure, Musgrove could benefit from increased black turnout, but this poll already pegs it at 37%; it’s hard to see it rise far above that. Furthermore, Musgrove’s problems come from his decline among white voters (he only gets 20%).

Democratic hopes of a 60-seat majority would then rest on KY, GA and MN. In Georgia, Buckley is getting a large enough share of the vote that it is becoming difficult to conceive either Chambliss or Martin crossing the 50% threshold. Whatever result comes out of this election will clearly depend on final turnout rates; in few states as much as this one are the LV and RV models finding such disparate results. In Minnesota, meanwhile, the situation is just as confused: Who are Barkley voters? Yesterday, two polls suggested that Barkley was disproportionately drawing from Democrats; today, two new surveys have him pulling equally from both sides. If the former happens, Coleman is in a great position; if the latter, Franken is still very much in the game.

The tracking polls have somewhat tightened over the past few days, and this is evident from the two candidate’s ranges: Obama was solidly above 50% in most trackings last week, but he has now slipped under that mark in three out of the seven polls. More noticeable is the uptick in McCain’s range: I have repeatedly pointed out that McCain is stuck in the low 40s, but he is slowly inching upward as five of the seven trackings show him at 44% - with Hotline finding him at 42% and Rasmussen at 47%.

That said, these are all slight changes that would need to be confirmed in the coming days. Collectively, they leave Obama firmly in command with six days to go. More importantly, Obama is as dominant as ever in the day’s state polls.

But here is where we have to pause for a minute and ask ourselves: are these state polls up to date with the latest national data ? In other words, are they taken over the same period? The national tracking polls suggest that there has been some tightening over the past three days only (Research 2000, for instance, has much tighter margins in Sunday, Monday and Tuesday’s samples than in those of the previous nights), so would state polls have already caught a tightening over these past three days?

Despite Nate Silver’s argument this afternoon that there is no lag between national and state polling, the day’s polling suggests that there is such a lag. Most of the state surveys released today were conducted before the tracking polls: The AP/GfK and the Quinnipiac polls ended on Sunday and were conducted over a four to five day period in which national polls found a big Obama lead; the CNN/Time polls were conducted through yesterday, but they went in the field on Thursday, making it difficult to draw conclusions about the last three days; the situation is the same for the Franklin & Marshall poll or Marist’s Ohio poll. The only state polls that have been entirely conducted since Sunday are Marist’s Pennsylvania poll (which has a big Obama lead) and Rasmussen’s three polls from MI, MN and NM, all of which show McCain gaining between 3% and 6%.

This is not to say that the race has tightened, only that we have very few data points at the state level with which to compare the national polls. So for Obama supporters who are worried that the race might have tightened since Sunday because of what they see in the latest Rasmussen, IBD/TIPP and Research 2000 surveys, most of today’s state polling cannot offer much comfort.

What should comfort Obama supporters, however, is that the gap is still huge in the states McCain needs to win, and that a 2-3% tightening nationally would barely make a dent in Obama’s lead in the Big Three states: Pennsylvania, Virginia and Colorado. Obama leads by double digits in four Pennsylvania polls - one of which was conducted over the past two days. And he posts commanding leads in Virginia and in Colorado in four new polls released today.

The second tier of Obama pick-up opportunities still look good for Obama: The second Nevada poll in two days finds him leading by double-digits, a huge gap for McCain to close. (Remember that winning Nevada in conjunction with Colorado and Virginia would mean that Pennsylvania no longer matters.) Obama also posts healthy leads in Ohio - though none of the three polls was in the field after Sunday.

And the tightest states that look like true toss-ups continue to be states Obama does not need and that McCain is stuck defending: Missouri and North Carolina are both dead heats in today’s surveys. On the other hand, Obama posts huge leads in blue states that looked competitive just a month ago, including NH, MN and MI. On to the full roundup:

• National tracking polls: Obama loses 2% in Rasmussen (50% to 47%), 1% in Research 2000 (50% to 44%), 1% in Hotline (49% to 42%), 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). The race is stable in Zogby (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 1% in the RV and LVT model). He gains 1% in Zogby (49% to 44%) and Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%). Obama’s leads thus are: 3%, 3%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

• Pennsylvania: Obama leads 52% to 41% in the latest Morning Call tracking poll, a 1% drop since yesterday. Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Marist poll conducted Sunday and Monday. He leads 53% to 41% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday, a 1% drop since the week before. Obama leads 53% to 40% in a Franklin & Marshall poll that started running Tuesday the 21st (8 days ago) through Sunday. Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Virginia: Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 10% two weeks ago. Obama leads 49% to 42% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Colorado: Obama leads 53% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 4% two weeks ago. Obama leads 50% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Nevada: Obama leads 52% to 40% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Marist poll conducted over the week-end (he led by 4% two weeks ago). Obama leads 51% to 42% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 14% the week before. Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Florida: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 5% two weeks ago. Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll conducted last Wednesday through Sunday; he led by 5% the week before and by 8% in the preceding poll. Obama leads 45% to 43% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Missouri: McCain leads 50% to 48% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 1% two weeks ago.

• North Carolina: Obama leads 48% to 46% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• New Mexico: Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll.

• Michigan: Obama leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 16% two weeks ago.

• New Hampshire: Obama leads 58% to 34% in the UNH tracking poll. Obama leads 55% to 37% in an AP/GfQ poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.

• Minnesota: Obama leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll conducted yesterday; he led by 15% two weeks ago.

• Georgia: McCain leads 52% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday; he led by 8% two weeks ago.

• Washington: Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll.  Obama leads 49% to 37% in a Strategic Vision poll.

• Safe states: Obama leads 63% to 33% in a SUSA poll of Delaware. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 62% to 33% in a SUSA poll of New York. McCain leads 57% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Alaska.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

• Mark Begich leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of the Alaska Senate race. Stevens led by 1% three weeks ago.

• Norm Coleman leads 43% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota’s Senate race, with 14% for Barkley (who loses 3%). For the first time, it appears that Barkley is taking more votes from Franken than from Coleman in what (if it is confirmed) could be Franken’s undoing. Franken led by 4% two weeks ago.

• Kay Hagan leads 47% to 43% in an AP/GfK poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.

• New Hampshire Senate race: Jeanne Shaheen leads 48% to 40% in the UNH tracking poll; she leads 47% to 41% in an AP/GfK poll.

• Mark Udall leads 48% to 36% in an AP/GfQ poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

• Mark Warner leads 58% to 32% in an AP/GfQ poll of the Virginia Senate race.

• Two new polls in Washington’s gubernatorial race have a 2% margin: Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in SUSA and 49% to 47% in Strategic Vision.

• Incumbent Governor Jim Douglas leads with 47% to 24% to independent candidate Anthony Pollina and 23% to Democratic nominee Gay Symington in a Research 2000 poll of Vermont. If no candidate crosses 50%, the legislature will have to vote on the winner; even though the legislature is controlled by Democrats, they would be likely to pick Douglas if he comes ahead (as they did in 2002).

• In MN-03, GOP nominee Erik Paulsen leads 45% to 44% in a new SUSA poll. Democrat Aswhin Madia had a 3% lead three weeks ago. A third party candidate gets 9%, drawing far more votes from Democrats than Republicans.

• In PA-10, Democratic Rep. Carney leads 50% to 35% in a Lycoming College poll. He led by 10% last month.

• In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter leads 44% to 42% in the UNH tracking poll, a suspicious 11% drop in one day. No surprise in NH-02, where Rep. Hodes leads.

A lot of Senate polls were released today, and they bring some good news for both parties. Democrats confirm that they are in command of Colorado and New Hampshire’s Senate races, and the first post-verdict survey of Alaska suggests that Stevens is now the clear underdog. However, the poll also underscores that Stevens is not out of the game - and if he trails by 8% in the immediate aftermath of his conviction, he could still make up some ground. Furthermore, Rasmussen finds Coleman gaining a day after he showed Wicker pulling away. The Minnesota Senate race is still wholly unpredictable (and will remain so because of the Barkley factor), but Democrats aren’t at 60 yet.