Archive for the 'TN-06' Category

Now it’s Gordon’s turn!

Published
by
Taniel
on December 14, 2009
in TN-06
. 18 Comments

House Democrats are starting to sweat: The latest representative to announce he will not seek re-election is Rep. Bart Gordon, a veteran lawmaker who has represented a now-heavily conservative Middle Tennessee district since 1984.

At this point, it is hard not to see a trend developing: Four weeks, four moderate-to-conservative Democrats from swing-to-hostile districts announce they will be retiring. Given that the historically low level of open seats was the party’s strongest firewall against a red wave, these developments have to be a major cause for celebration at NRCC headquarters. Gordon’s decision is all the more worrisome for the DCCC because he is a committee chairman: If the fact that he’s only gotten to spend four years in such an influential position did not prevent him from calling it quits, who else might be preparing to give Democrats similar headaches?

The DCCC will anxiously await what announcement next week might bring.

On the other hand, Gordon’s retirement will not be cause much of a cause of lamentation among progressives. A conservative Democrat, he was more likely than not to cross over to the GOP side on controversial votes: He opposed the health-care bill and was among the Stupak amendment’s lead champions; he supported DOMA (in 1996), last year’s FISA bill, the constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, the permanent repeal of the estate tax and House Republicans’ anti-immigration bills in 2005; he opposed Democratic resolutions to redeploy troops out of Iraq. Matters on which he sided with the majority of his party: Bills to authorize stem-cell research funding and last June’s cap-and-trade vote.

What is particularly striking is that Gordon is a senior member of the Blue Dog Coalition - just like Tanner and Moore (who announced their retirement in November). Blue Dogs are thus likely to lose three of their most powerful members, which could lessen the party’s ability to organize effectively in the upcoming Congress.

Like TN-08 and KS-03, TN-06 immediately vaults at the top of the GOP’s takeover opportunities. Not only did John McCain receive 62% of the vote last year, but district voters have been growing increasingly comfortable shedding their ancestral loyalties to the Democratic Party: McCain’s margin of victory was 5% bigger than Bush’s in 2004 and 25% bigger than Bush’s in 2000.

Al Gore’s seat in the early 1980s, TN-06 is the sort of district that Democrats have been able to hold on to because of the longevity of incumbents who started serving long before the Southern realignment fully played out. They might have had a shot at defending it in 2008-like conditions (they did prevail in the AL-05, after all), but it’s tough to see how they could do so in 2010: The GOP doesn’t even need a wave to pick-up this district, a neutral environment would be enough for voters’ normal preferences to assert themselves and send a Republican to the House.

In short: TN-06 might very well be the House seat Republicans are most likely to capture next year - and that’s saying a lot considering the opportunities they have elsewhere. (An argument could be made that LA-03 is as vulnerable, but that district does not matter as much considering it is likely to be eliminated in the next round of redistricting.)

Democrats do have enough of a bench in most Southern states that they could be able to mount a competitive race, but the party’s performance in Tennessee has seriously deteriorated over the past decade and it has to be seen whether national Democrats will seriously try to defend the seat. It’s probable the DCCC does not put up a strong defense, choosing to divert money that would have gone into defending Gordon in other districts.

Furthermore, Republicans look like they’ll be the first to get a candidate in the race: State Senator Jim Tracy is reportedly preparing to enter the race within hours, a speed he can pull off because he already intended to run before Gordon’s announcement. Tracy is expected to face competition in the GOP primary, but he is for now the only state legislator whose name is circulating. (One open seat in which Republicans will not be hosting a competitive primary is KS-03, as former state Senator Nick Jordan is solidifying his hold on the party’s nomination.)

After OH-18, NC-08: No longer sure it can contest another top target, NRCC turns to Tennessee

Published
by
Taniel
on August 21, 2009
in NC-08, TN-04 and TN-06
. 1 Comment

Over and over again, the GOP is signaling its commitment to targeting Democratic congressmen who represent conservative areas but have not faced a credible challenge in years - sometimes even decades. It started with the NRCC’s ads against entrenched Blue Dogs and continued with talk of challenges to the likes of Rep. Marion Berry and Rep. Ike Skelton.

The latest districts Republicans are eying are Tennessee’s 4th and 6th Districts, neither of which are featured on my list of 63 potentially vulnerable Dem-held House seats. While both districts have become very heavily conservative (TN-04 gave McCain 64% of the vote, TN-06 gave him 62%) neither has been competitive at the congressional level. Ever since he won the former seat in 2002, Lincoln Davis has not faced a threatening Republican opponent; the trend is even more pronounced for Bart Gordon, who has represented TN-06 since 1984 but has only faced any danger in 1994.

In this context, news that 2 GOP congressmen traveled to Tennessee to gauge potential recruits is a testament to the GOP’s current optimism. As I pointed out last week, both parties firmly believe that the coming cycle should favor them, and both are behaving accordingly. Republicans are particularly sanguine about the prospects of a red wave (that’s something about which I’ll have more to say in the day ahead.) There’s really no other way to explain their sudden belief that targeting Gordon is a worthy endeavor: For Gordon to as much as break a sweat would require 2010 to be as brutal as 1994.

Since Davis is far less senior a lawmaker and since he a slightly more conservative district, you might think that TN-04 would be the GOP’s priority - but the NRCC does not really seem to have a potentially top-tier candidate against Lincoln (physician Scott DesJarlais should not pose more of a challenge than his past competitors) while state Senator Jim Tracy and Rutherford County Republican Chairwoman Lou Ann Zelenik could spark more GOP enthusiasm than usual if they were to pull the trigger of a challenge to Gordon.

Meanwhile, in districts the NRCC should be focusing on…

Given the dozens of competitive districts the GOP lost in 2006 and 2008, you would think they have enough junior Democratic lawmakers to target that Skelton or Gordon would not be priorities. After all, Gordon would remain overwhelmingly favored to win re-election even if the NRCC landed a top-tier contender to run against him, whereas a credible Republican is all that’s needed to put many freshman Democrats in trouble.

Yet, the GOP suffered damaging blows this week when two Republicans made it clear they would not challenge Rep. Larry Kissell in NC-08. Kissell won a resounding victory last fall, defeating Rep. Robin Hayes by 10% - thus outperforming Obama’s 6% win. But in a district Bush won by 9% in 2004, Kissell should be vulnerable if the GOP finds a strong contender - if for no other reason than the fact that a drop in African-American turnout would be more consequential here than in most congressional districts.

The most disappointing decision has to be that Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who came within 3% of winning last fall’s gubernatorial elections. In a state Democrats have long dominated at the state level, that’s an impressive performance - especially when compared to Elizabeth Dole’s 9% defeat. Mayors often make good candidates, and McCrory would have had the stature, the base and the name recognition to be one of the GOP’s top 2010 candidates. (Note that only a small part of Charlotte is in the 8th district, so McCrory’s notoriety certainly extends to the city’s large metro area.) Yet, he will not run.

Neither will Hayes, who had previously indicated he was considering seeking a rematch. While Hayes’s 10% defeat suggests he could be too damaged to win in this district, he would still have immediately put the district on the radar screen. In some districts a weak former congressman’s retreat or primary defeat allows a party to end up with a stronger challenger (see KS-04 last year or perhaps VA-05 this year) but the GOP had no other top candidate than McCrory. While the NRCC has some names it can turn to - in particular District Attorney John Snyder, a former aide to Jesse Helms - none can be sure of endangering Kissell.

Coming a few days after the NRCC suffered the latest in a series of recruitment blows in OH-18, these North Carolina developments mean that Republicans can no longer be sure they’ll be able to contest two of their top House targets.

In aftermath of cap-and-trade vote, NRCC targets 14 other Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2009
in AR-02, CO-04, FL-08, IA-01, IL-11, IN-09, MO-04, NM-02, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, TN-06, VA-05 and VA-09
. 2 Comments

As the House took a high-profile and controversial vote last Friday, we knew what was coming: Attack ads! While many vulnerable Democrats voted against the Waxman-Markey, the NRCC wasted no time going after those who supported it: A new wave of ads and robo-calls targets 14 Democrats who voted for cap-and-trade despite representing red-leaning districts.

Only one Democrat earns the right to be targeted by a TV spot: Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05), an obvious Democratic target whose re-election bid is rated a toss-up in my ratings. The ad starts with footage of Obama saying that his cap-and-trade proposal will result in skyrocketing energy prices and concludes by hitting Perriello for his party loyalty. “Tom Perriello’s voting with Obama and with Pelosi over and over. Call Perriello. Tell him he was wrong to vote for the Pelosi energy tax,” says the narrator:

The 13 other Democrats are being targeted with a radio ad. Here’s the version running against Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02):

The NRCC has two obvious goals. First, drive down the popularity of these incumbents to endanger their 2010 re-election bid. At least eight of these Democrats are considered highly vulnerable; in 2008, they prevailed by winning the support of voters who also chose McCain and the GOP’s priority is to reconquer these ticket-splitter.

Second, scare these Democrats into switching their vote and opposing cap-and-trade if the legislation returns to the House in the form of a conference report. Last week, Waxman-Markey passed by a narrow 219 to 212 margin so all it would take is for 4 representatives to change their mind for the bill to be killed; pressuring those supportive Democrats who represent the most conservative districts is the surest way for the GOP to get there.

Of course, any backlash these Democrats might endure will only be heightened by the party’s reluctance to fully stand behind Waxman-Markey. The narrow margin by which the bill passed and the dozens of Democrats who voted “no” have done as much to make the bill look controversial as anything the NRCC could say. By contrast, legislation that passes on a 245-186 vote will be covered differently by the press and won’t be as likely to become electorally explosive.

Furthermore, it would be silly for these 14 Democrats think that they would suddenly put the cap-and-trade issue behind them if they oppose an eventual conference report: The NRCC would certainly not hold back from pointing out that they voted in favor of initial passage, and such congressmen would only be weighed down by the need to explain their change of heart. Yet, while a flip-flop might be unlikely, there is no doubt that this is what the GOP is aiming at.

How else to explain the presence on this list of Rick Boucher (VA-09), Bart Gordon (TN-06) and Ike Skelton (MO-04)? (The NRCC is running radio against all three.) While all represent districts that gave McCain more than 59% of the vote, they are veteran congressmen elected in 1982, 1984 and 1976, respectively. They are never described as vulnerable and they very rarely show up on such lists. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Baron Hill (IN-09): He is not expected to face a competitive race in 2010 but his conservative voting record makes him a potential vote-switcher.

(In February, the NRCC ran radio ads attacking Gordon and Skelton for supporting the stimulus but the ads were released before the House voted on the conference report; neither flip-flopped on that second vote.)

Another surprise appearance on this list is Bruce Braley (IA-01), a relatively liberal Democrat who represents the only clearly Democratic district of the list: IA-01 went for Gore and Kerry and gave Obama 58% of the vote, so I’m not sure what the NRCC is trying to do here. (He was also included among the targets of those February stimulus ads.)

Besides these five Democrats, the other targeted congressmen are all to some extent vulnerable: John Boccieri (OH-16), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Vic Snyder (AR-02), Zack Space (OH-18) and Harry Teague (NM-02). (I’ve talked enough about these races not to launch in a detailed analysis now, but you can check here for more race-specific information.)

There are some notable absences, like Frank Kratovil (MD-01) and Steve Driehaus (OH-01), but the NRCC is going after at least one other Democrat - Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - by launching robocalls on another topic altogether: NASA. Their attack is rather disingenuous since Kosmas voted against the appropriations bill that cut millions from NASA funding; the GOP circumvents that little problem and attacks her nonetheless for not prevent[ing] that cut.”

(For those more interested in the legislative battle behind Friday’s vote, Politico published an interesting story on Nancy Pelosi’s whip efforts.)

In other House news, the GOP landed a top contender in NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed announced he would take on Rep. Eric Massa, who defeated a Republican incumbent last fall. While Corning is too small a city to make Reed that threatening a candidate (its population hovers around 10,000), his political experience and the NRCC’s enthusiasm for his candidacy make him a very credible challenger. As most of the GOP’s 2010 candidates are likely to do, Reed emphasized fiscal issues and his concern for “irresponsible deficit spending.” Note that the NRCC’s preferred candidate was Assemblyman Brian Kolb, but Kolb decided not to run when he became the state Assembly’s Minority Leader; other Republicans could still jump in, including a pair of state Senators.

The who’s who of vulnerable House Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on February 13, 2009
in CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, IA-01, KS-03, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-25, NY-29, OH-15, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06 and TX-17
. 0 Comments

Ten days ago, the DCCC launched radio ads in 28 congressional districts held by the GOP. The spot attacked vulnerable Republican incumbents for voting against the stimulus bill, in a legislative effort to scare the lawmakers into supporting the bill’s final version and an electoral effort to soften up their support.

Now, it is the NRCC’s turn to go after 30 vulnerable Democratic incumbents for supporting the stimulus. The radio ads accuse the representatives of being fiscally irresponsible and supporting pork spending - Republican talking points that can be effective against these Democratic congressmen since most of them represent red-leaning districts (see list below).

The NRCC’s first order of business in this new cycle has to be rallying the Republican base against Democrats who represent them, particularly in areas in which conservatives dominate. While there is little money behind these ads, they are necessary to lay the groundwork for 2010 challenges.

Part of the NRCC’s objective, of course, is to scare some of these Democrats into adopting conservative voting habits over the next few months. 11 House Democrats voted against the stimulus bill, but there are enough Blue Dogs that the GOP can hope for more Democrats to cross over to their side on key votes. And they are more likely to vote with Republicans  if they are made to think it is dangerous for them not to do so .

Here is the version that is running in KS-03 against Rep. Dennis Moore (audio here):

Last year, Dennis Moore promised us he would promote fiscally responsible legislation in congress. His website bragged about how he worked with either party to, quote, get our country back on track so we don’t pass on massive debt to our children and grand-children. But now, just a year later, he voted for a wasteful, pork-barreled program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars. And he’s borrowing the money!

Dennis Moore’s spending plan is parked with pork. $75 million for smoking cessation, $50 million for the National Endowment of the Arts, $335 million to treat sexually transmitted diseases, and $600 million for government employees vehicles, including 32 entirely new government programs. Yup. You heard me. Call Dennis Moore at 202-225-3121. Tell him he made a mistake by supporting wasteful spending. Tell him to guard the taxpayers instead.

While the second part of that ad is used against all 30 Democrats, the first part is twitched a little on an individual basis. Here is the beginning of the spot that is running against Rep. Eric Massa in NY-29:

Last month, Eric Massa bragged about his fiscal discipline in Congress. ‘I’m a fiscal hawk; I don’t like deficit spending.’ Those were Eric Massa’s own words. He said them in a press conference. But now he’s voted for a wasteful pork barrel program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars, putting us deeper in debt.

Here is a table listing the full list of targeted Democrats. I added the districts’ presidential vote in 2004 and 2008 so we get an idea of how vulnerable these representatives are. (The district-level results for 2008 are available on Swing State Project’s excellent database.)

District Status 2008 pres. 2004 pres.
McNerney (CA-11) sophomore 54% Obama 54% Bush
Salazar (CO-03) red-leaning district 50% McCain 55% Bush
Markey (CO-04) freshman 51% McCain 58% Bush
Grayson (FL-08) freshman 52% Obama 55% Bush
Kosmas (FL-24) freshman, red district 52% McCain 55% Bush
Barrow (GA-12) (very) narrow ‘06 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Braley (IA-01) sophomore 58% Obama 53% Kerry
Moore (KS-03) red-leaning district 51% Obama 55% Bush
Melancon (LA-03) red district 61% McCain 58% Bush
Schauer (MI-07) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 52% Obama 54% Bush
Walz (MN-01) sophomore 51% Obama 51% Bush
Skelton (MO-04) red district 61% McCain 64% Bush
Childers (MS-01) red district 62% McCain 62% Bush
Kissell (NC-08) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 54% Bush
Shea-Porter (NH-01) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 51% Bush
Teague (NM-02) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 50% McCain 58% Bush
Titus (NV-03) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 55% Obama 50% Bush
Hall (NY-19) sophomore 51% Obama 54% Bush
Maffei (NY-25) freshman 56% Obama 50% Kerry
Massa (NY-29) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 51% McCain 56% Bush
Driehaus (OH-01) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 55% Obama 51% Bush
Kilroy (OH-15) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Space (OH-18) sophomore, red district 52% McCain 57% Bush
Schrader (OR-05) freshman 54% Obama 50% Bush
Dahlkemper (PA-03) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 49% Obama 53% Bush
Carney (PA-10) sophomore, red district 54% McCain 60% Bush
Gordon (TN-06) red district 62% McCain 60% Bush
Edwards (TX-17) red district 67% McCain 70% Bush
Nye (VA-02) freshman 51% Obama 58% Bush
Kagen (WI-08) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 55% Bush

It is striking that 28 of these districts were won by George W. Bush in 2004, but only 11 were carried by John McCain in November: CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-29, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06, TX-17.

Given that most of the country swung blue in 2008, districts that stayed in the red column can be considered the GOP’s most solid base - and the NRCC is understandably frustrated at the large number of Democrats representing such districts. These districts are at the very top of their list, and their congressmen are among the most vulnerable incumbents of 2010. Particularly endangered are those on this list that won in 2006 and in 2008 because of their opponent’s unpopularity or ethics problems; that includes Markey (CO-04), Kosmas (FL-24), Space (OH-18), Carney (PA-10).

On the other hand, many of these red districts are still held by Democrats because they have deeply entrenched Democratic incumbents who are popular enough to hold the district no matter how conservative their constituents. Those include CO-03, MO-04 and TN-06, three red districts targeted by this wave of advertisement - and surprisingly so given how little we have heard about them over the past few cycles!

Equally interesting are the two districts won by John Kerry that the DCCC is targeting, a list to which we can almost add OH-15, which Bush barely won in 2004. But while I can understand why the NRCC is targeting Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy, who showed that she was not the strongest of candidates in 2006 and then again in 2006, I am more skeptical as to the inclusion of NY-25 and IA-01. The former is a blue-trending district in which Obama won a decisive victory and in a state where Republicans have been sinking. The latter is even more confusing: Both Kerry and Obama won IA-01 decisively, and Bruce Braley is not even a freshman!