Archive for the 'TN-Gov' Category

Weekly 2010 update: As TX Dems land their candidate, NY Republicans wish they were so lucky

Published
by
Taniel
on December 6, 2009
in TN-Gov, TX-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 7 Comments

On Friday, Houston Mayor Bill White pulled the trigger: He dropped out of Texas’s nonexistent Senate contest and jumped in the gubernatorial race, giving Democrats an unexpected shot at winning a rare statewide victory. I chose not to write about his announcement since I already explained why it made sense for White to make the switch last week, when we first learned such a development was likely. Furthermore, White’s prospects largely depend on just how bloody the Republican primary gets and whether Rick Perry can pull out a victory.

On a related note: For those interested in the coming Perry-Hutchison bloodbath, Robert Draper’s (long) investigation into the primary’s dynamics in today’s New York Times Magazine is a very interesting read.

In New York, with every passing week in which Rudy Giuliani is not announcing his decision, it’s looking increasingly unlikely that he’ll end up running for Senate. The Daily News is now reporting that Giuliani signed up as a long-term security consultant for the 2016 Olympics, which makes it hard to believe he is even considering challenging Gillibrand at this point. That’s making the GOP look elsewhere. Two weeks after Larchmont Mayor Lisa Feld floated her name, two new potential candidates emerged this week: Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman and former state Senator Mike Balboni, who could run as a moderate due to his participation in Eliot Spitzer and David Paterson’s administrations.

Another state whose political landscape was shook up this week is Tennessee. Not only did Rep. John Tanner announce his retirement, setting up a competitive open seat race, but the Democratic field in the Governor’s race narrow by two. First, state Senator Herron dropped out to seek Tanner’s House seat instead; second, businessman Ward Cammack pulled the plug on his campaign, citing his inability to raise enough funds. This leaves 3 candidates: state Senate Minority Leader Jim Kyle, former House Majority Leader Kim McMillan and Mike McWherter, the son of a former Governor. Whoever wins the August primary will have a shot in the general election, but it should be an uphill climb.

Finally, Tom Foley moved from Connecticut’s Senate race to the Governor’s race, which guarantees Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele will face a competitive primary. As the former Ambassador to Ireland and as one of the men who helped import the neo-liberal agenda to Iraq in the early years of the war (he was Director of Private Sector Development), Foley is clearly well-connected in the Republican establishment; that didn’t help him in the Senate race, but now he will not have to deal with Rob Simmons’s electability credentials and Linda McMahon’s vast fortune.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. John Tanner (TN-08)
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CT-Sen, GOP former Ambassador Tom Foley dropped out
CT-Sen, Green Ralph Nader added to list
IN-Sen, GOP former Rep. John Hostettler announced run
NC-Sen, Dem former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is reportedly running
NY-Sen, GOP Port Authority Commissioner Bruce Blakeman added
former state Senator Mike Balboni added
VT-Sen, GOP businessman Len Britton announced run

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CT-Gov, GOP former Ambassador Tom Foley announced run
IA-Gov, GOP Christian Fong dropped out
MI-Gov, Dem Lansing mayor Virg Bernero added to list
NY-Gov, GOP former assistant Treasury Secretary Emil Henry Jr. added to list
TN-Gov, Dem businessman Ward Cammack dropped out
state senator Roy Herron dropped out
TX-Gov, Dem Henry “Hank” Gilbert dropped out
Houston Mayor Bill White announced run

Lincoln Davis stays in House, Bill Sali wants to return

Published
by
Taniel
on January 30, 2009
in ID-01, TN-04 and TN-Gov
. 1 Comment

Two days ago, House Republicans got some encouraging recruitment news. Now, it’s the DCCC’s turn to get good news in two important races: ID-01 and TN-04.

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Democratic Rep. Lincoln Davis was expected to run for Tennessee’s gubernatorial race in 2010, but his recent appointment to the Appropriations Committee made him think over his decision. Yesterday, Davis (one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, and one of only 11 Democrats to vote against Obama’s stimulus bill) announced he would not run for Governor and would seek re-election to the House.

” As a new member of the House Appropriations Committee, I will have a significant opportunity to practice fiscal responsibility of our nation’s finances,” he wrote in a statement. “This recent appointment is an opportunity for the district I represent that I could not easily turn away from.”

Tennessee’s current Governor is a Democrat, but he is term-limited out of office. Davis was considered one of the front-runners for his party’s nomination, so his move shuffles the primary field. A number of state legislators are mentioned as potential candidates, but eyes are now on former Rep. Harold Ford Jr., who could become the front-runner if he chooses to run.

Davis’s decision also has a major impact at the House level. TN-04 is a conservative district that is becoming increasingly Republican: Bush won 50% of the vote in 2000, 58% in 2004, and McCain performed even better, receiving 64%! In other words, TN-04 has changed considerably in the six years since Davis’s first election, in 2002. Thus, an open seat in TN-04 would have been a huge Democratic headache and a major pick-up opportunity for Republicans. Davis’s decision to run for re-election is thus great news for the DCCC, which will not have to worry about the seat over the next two years.

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Idaho’s Walt Minnick is arguably the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. He seats on a heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68% in 2004 and McCain 62% in 2008, and he was able to pick-up the seat thanks to his Republican opponent, then-Rep. Bill Sali.

To the consternation of Idaho’s GOP establishment, Sali won the crowded Republican primary in 2006 with only 26% of the vote. He survived the general election that year, but the disdain many Republican officials felt for him combined with Sali’s extreme conservatism put him in a tough spot in 2008; the last straw was Sali’s heckling his opponent’s chief of staff while the latter was delivering a television interview. Even then, Walt Minnick only won by 2% - a testament to just how conservative ID-01 is.

In 2010, Republicans will be favored to defeat Minnick with a less controversial candidate… unless they get stuck with Sali for yet another cycle!

Democrats were surely not daring hope that they could be that lucky, but the former representative filed a statement of candidacy with the FEC this week. In other words: he is considering seeking a rematch in 2010. If Sali gets his party’s nomination, Minnick will surely breath a huge sigh of relief.

This is not to say that a Sali candidacy would guarantee that he will move on to the general election: A number of prominent Republicans (for instance Attorney General Lawrence Wasden or former state Controller Keith Johnson) are mulling a run, and any of them would represent a huge threat to Minnick. But Sali could hope that the primary is crowded and that his name recognition guarantees him enough of a base to win the primary with a small plurality - just as in 2006.

2010: Frist’s exit from Gov race leads to open TN-03; new rumors surround Sebelius

Published
by
Taniel
on January 5, 2009
in KS-Sen, TN-03 and TN-Gov
. 3 Comments

Tennessee’s governorship is one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities in 2010, as the Democratic Governor cannot run for re-election due to term limit laws. The Republican nomination was Bill Frist’s for the taking; the former Senator has enough of a stature to clear the primary field, and everyone was waiting for him to announce his intentions.

Yesterday, Frist issued a statement announcing he will not run. “After significant reflection and conversation with loved ones, I have decided to remain a private citizen for the foreseeable future,” he wrote. (In the previous cycle, Frist had also passed on a presidential run many people expected him to launch.)

The GOP certainly has a strong bench in a state that has dramatically swung red over the past decade - so much so that it will be very difficult for Democrats to retain the governorship. That makes the Republican nomination that much more attractive, and Frist’s move leaves it wide open.

Within 24 hours of Frist’s statement, GOP Rep. Zach Wamp came out to announce that he was a candidate. He is expected to face a competitive primary, with Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam as a possible opponent.

Wamp is a powerful player in the House since he has a seat on the coveted Appropriations Committee, so his quick decision leaves little doubt that he is confident he can move in the Governor’s mansion; it also suggests that prolonged life in the minority is not looking attractive to Republican congressmen.

Wamp’s move also means that TN-03 becomes one of the first open seats of the 2010 cycle. Unfortunately for Democrats, it is very difficult to envision them mounting a competitive run. The district is very conservative, and it gave George Bush 61% of the vote in 2004. (The 2008 results aren’t available yet, but we know that McCain crushed Obama in each of the eight counties that make up the district.)

Of course, an open seat always gives the challenging party a glimmer of hope of pulling an AL-02-like upset, so a competitive race cannot be ruled out. But the GOP has little to worry about for now.

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Kansas’s open Senate seat is currently ranked eleventh in my Senate rankings, but we already know that this race will not end up in that second-tier range. If Governor Kathleen Sebelius jumps in, the race will move near the top of the rankings; if she passes on the race, Democrats will have little to no hope of picking up the seat.

Sebelius’s decision to withdraw her name from Cabinet considerations boosted the DSCC’s hopes of recruiting her, but her name has now popped up in an entirely different arena: The Topeka Capital Journal reports that Sebelius is being considered as a possible chancellor for the University of Kansas.

Current Chancellor Robert Hemenway announced that he would retire at the end for the current academic year on December 8th, just two days after Sebelius said she was no longer looking for a Cabinet appointment. It goes without saying that Sebelius leaving the governorship to work at KU would also bar a Senate run.

The search committee was just formed last week, so Hemenway’s successor will not be announced any time soon. If Sebelius is actually interested in this position, she will likely put off deciding on a Senate run until later this year.