Archive for the 'TN-09' Category

In House races, plenty of movement on the Democratic side

Published
by
Taniel
on May 2, 2009
in CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, IL-10 and TN-09
. 4 Comments

The latest strong House recruit might have been a Republican, but there is arguably more action on the Democratic side.

That is particularly in California, where the DCCC will try to put in play 8 GOP-held district that were somewhat unexpectedly won by Obama last fall. Most of these districts have gone unnoticed over the past cycles, and the big question in each is whether Democrats can recruit a strong challenger. Over the past week, two Democrats who were expected to jump in the race run confirmed their candidacy in CA-44 and CA-45 and an interesting name is being floated in CA-03.

In CA-45, Rep. Mary Bono has drawn the strongest opponent of her 12-year career: Two months after filing a candidacy statement, Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet officially declared himself a candidate. While Palm Springs is a relatively small part of the district, it is certainly good base from which to proceed (Mary Bono’s husband, which held the seat before her, served as Palm Spring Mayors before being elected) and CA-45 is undoubtedly a district to follow in the next year.

In his candidacy statement, Pougnet downplayed his party affiliation when declaring his run. “I’m not a partisan politician. I won’t play political games,” he said, blasting Bono as “a partisan politician who is out of touch with her constituents.” Don’t forget that the reason we are even talking of CA-45 is that Obama won the district by 5% last fall, so Pougnet’s prospects depend on his riding the region’s blue drift rather than shunning his party label.

While such districts turned blue last year because independents massively turned to the Democratic party, that was not just a short-term evolution: The GOP’s registration numbers dropped, which means that the party has lost many voters in the long-term. On the other hand, Bono has a moderate reputation - especially on social issues - and Pougnet will have to put that into question if he wants to question

In CA-44, Democrat Bill Hedrick confirmed that he will seek a rematch against Rep. Ken Calvert in an e-mail to supporters. “The November 2010 election is only 16 months away – and while it seems like a long way off, I need to begin raising money now in order to wage an aggressive, focused, and targeted campaign against Mr. Calvert,” he wrote.

In 2008, no one paid much attention to the race, and the DCCC provided no help to Hedrick, the Corona-Norco school board president. Yet, the Democrat came out of nowhere to almost score the biggest upset of the night - but he ended up falling 2% short. In 2010, Hedrick can hope to receive more national help - especially CA-44 is now a blue district. On the other hand, the DCCC does not look committed to helping Hedrick just yet and Democrats will no longer enjoy the element of surprise.

A sign that Democrats are not committed to backing candidates who came unexpectedly close in 2008 is coming from CA-03: Physician Bill Durston came within 6% of Rep. Lungren last fall, and he has already announced that he will run again next year. But Democrats is looking for other contenders. Some California activists have urged Lieutenant Governor Garamendi to run in this district rather than in CA-10, and we now get news that former Treasurer Phil Angelides “is taking a serious look” at challenging Lungren. Angelides took a beating against Schwarzenegger in California’s recall election 2006 gubernatorial election - but he would undoubtedly be a top-tier contender and a recruiting coup for the DCCC.

IL-10: Bond puts pressure on Kirk

Mark Kirk still has to make up his mind, but he will now have to think about his 2010 plans knowing that he has already drawn a strong challenger: state Senator Michael Bond announced that he would run, which ensures that Democrats will contest this district whether or not Kirk seeks re-election. (State Senator Susan Garrett and the party’s nominee in 2006 and in 2008, Dan Seals also look interested in running, but both of them look more interested in running for an open seat than in the prospect of challenging Kirk.)

This is why I rated the district a toss-up in my recent House ratings: Kirk would start with a slight upper-hand if he runs for re-election, but  the district is so blue that he will never be safe. There is certainly an argument to be made that a more experienced Democrat would have fared better than Seals, and a new nominee would have a stronger shot at unseating Kirk - even if the environment isn’t as toxic in 2010 as it was over the past two cycles.

Bond’s move raises an important question: Will the prospect of a third straight competitive race weigh on Kirk’s mind as he decides whether he will run for Senate or for Governor? The DCCC sure hopes so, the DSCC not so much.

TN-09: Cohen looks safer than expected

Two weeks ago, I made a big deal out of five-term Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton challenging Rep. Steve Cohen in TN-09’s Democratic primary. The only white congressman to represent a black-majority district, Cohen looked to be obviously vulnerable. Yet, it looks like he is far more entrenched than we have come to believe.

A poll conducted for WMC-TV shows the incumbent would crush Herenton 65% to 14% - a stunning demonstration of strength. Some of it is surely due to the fact that Herenton looks to have overtstayed his welcome (he only received 42% in his most recent re-election race), but it is time not to consider Cohen as so vulnerable that any African-American politician is in a position to beat him. After all, much was made of Cohen’s 2008 primary against Nikki Tinker, though he ended up winning 79% to 19%.

Primary threats: Maloney laying groundwork to challenge Gillibrand, Cohen draws top challenger

Published
by
Taniel
on April 22, 2009
in NY-Gov, NY-Sen and TN-09
. 1 Comment

In New York, Maloney and Cuomo drop hints

In March, I talked about Andrew Cuomo’s decision to hire one of Eliot Spitzer’s top fundraiser as a sign that he is preparing for bigger things than a re-election campaign. Now, PolitickerNY is reporting two similar hiring moves in the Empire State (PolitickerNY is doing a great job at reading the tea leaves of New York Democrats and monitoring their moves):

  • Rep. Carolyn Maloney has hired a statewide finance director. This is the first time that the longtime representative has hired someone with a “statewide” title, which obviously suggests that she is looking at a Senate run in 2010.
  • Cuomo has secured the help of one Jennifer Bayer Michaels, Chuck Schumer’s former chief fundraisers and a senior fundraiser for the DSCC.

Maloney, first: Why would she drop such a hint if she is not willing to declare a candidacy? It helps Maloney label herself as a serious Senate contender and get in contact with prospective donors. And her new statewide director is doing nothing to silence speculation. “Anything that might happen is only in the talking and planning stages,” he said. Rep. McCarthy might have been the first representative to criticize Gillibrand, but Maloney is doing the most to suggest she is serious about a run.

As for Cuomo, he might be insisting that he has no plans to run for Governor - but his actions suggest otherwise. The Attorney General is in no danger of losing re-election in 2010, so it would make little sense for him to hire/recruit high-profile, well-connected consultants and fundraisers on top of his already pre-existing (and already top-notch) team if he had no intention to seek a promotion next year.

The Memphis Mayor looks to jump in TN-09

Elected in Harold Ford Jr.’s former seat, Steve Cohen is currently the only white congressman to represent a black-majority district. After winning a crowded primary in 2006, Cohen last year faced a primary challenge from Nikki Tinker, a political novice. The contest grabbed national headlines for Tinker’s racially charged campaigning; her last-minute ads accusing Cohen of “praying in our churches” were denounced by Barack Obama and Ford Jr. On Election Day, Cohen won an unexpectedly decisive victory and received 79% of the vote.

He must have thought that would allow him a few years of political rest, but a top-tier challenger has unexpectedly emerged that could make Cohen’s past two campaigns look like cakewalks: Willie Herenton, who is currently serving his fifth term as the Mayor of Memphis, has formed an exploratory committee to run for Cohen’s House seat.

Mayors tend to have a well-oiled machine and are well-known by their constituents; Herenton’s long tenure makes it that much more of a formidable congressional candidate. That does mean he is unbeatable, however: He won his fifth term with only 42% of the vote - his lowest level of support - and his tenure has been rocky at times. But combined with the district’s racial make-up, Herenton’s credentials are enough to make Cohen one of the most endangered incumbents of the cycle.

Thankfully, we should not expect a Herenton-Cohen match-up to degenerate into the same nastiness as last year’s primary. Tinker had little political experience to run on; her primary hope was the district’s majority-black status, so it is thus not surprising that she resorted to running a racially divisive campaign. Herenton, on the other hand, is well-known figure to Memphis voters. We can debate whether he would have felt confident enough in his chances to challenge an African-American challenger, but race is certainly not the primary rationale of his candidacy. He can run on his accomplishments, his record, his familiarity with Memphis’s problems, his relationship with his constituents. The election will be as much a referendum on him as on Cohen.

Interviewed by the Memphis Commercial Appeal, Cohen sounded taken aback by Herenton’s move. “Mayor Herenton has always been very friendly toward me,” he said. And he immediately pointed out that he doubted Herenton would enjoy legislative life. “Being one of 435 is not like being No. 1,” he explained. “To be honest, I don’t think Mayor Herenton would like being a congressmen. It’s a lot of work and it’s not a lot of power.” Cohen’s comments were not just intended as friendly advice; he made it clear that they would be his basic argument during a campaign against Herenton. “The best qualifications to be a congressman is legislative experience,” he noted.

While I am skeptical that such an argument would resonate much with voters, it is certainly an interesting point. North Carolina’s former Governor Mike Easley declined running for Senate in 2008 after explicitly stating that he did not think legislative life was cut for him; Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry has said just as much this year. And many question how well a politician like Charlie Crist would take to the Senate’s slow pace and deliberative procedures.

Down-ballot: Cohen survives nasty primary, Franken hit by Dem opponent

Published
by
Taniel
on August 8, 2008
in KS-02, MN-Sen and TN-09
. 3 Comments

If you thought Norm Coleman’s bowling alley ad was tough, think again. That spot accused Al Franken of “foul-mouthed” attacks, “tasteless, sexist jokes,” and “writing all that juicy porn.” Just as Franken had found a way to hit back yesterday and put the spotlight back on Coleman in the toughest ad exchange we have seen in any Senate race for now, here is a new ad - this one released by a Democrat - that hits Franken even more harshly:

Priscilla Lord Faris, an attorney who announced she was challenging Franken for the Democratic nomination just three weeks ago, released an attack ad centered on electability. The ad features nothing but Faris speaking directly to the camera. She says she used to believe Franken could defeat Coleman, but “his record of pornography and degradation of women and minorities and questionable financial transactions will be the source of blistering ads for the Republican attack machine.” That’s why Faris took it upon herself to inform the electorate of Franken’s baggage, in much harsher terms than Coleman probably ever would have - there is a huge leap between “tasteless, sexist jokes” and a “record of degradation of women and minorities.”

The Star Tribune reports that the ad doesn’t have that much money behind it, even less than the biographical spot her campaign released earlier this week - an ad that also features nothing but Faris talking to the camera for 30 seconds, without even any pictures of the events of her past she is describes. The camera doesn’t seem to be very stable - underscoring that this is not the best-funded campaign. But the attack ad on Franken is designed to get attention, and Minnesota media is talking about this. Faris is not a credible threat to Franken’s primary chances, but she might force him to spend even more time defending his past actions, jokes and writings.

While Minnesota is still three months away from winning the title of most brutal Senate race of the 2008 cycle, the House award might already have been wrapped up thanks to the nasty campaign Nikki Tinker ran in TN-09. This is the only Southern majority-minority district represented by a white congressman, Steve Cohen, who won with a plurality of the vote in a crowded primary 2 years ago. Tinker released two widely condemned ads this week comparing Cohen to a hooded Klansman and blaming him for entering “our churches” (there has been some argument about whether that implied “our Christian churches” or “our black churches,” but either way that line was as nasty as you can get and there is no reason that it couldn’t have gone for both attacks at once.)

Barack Obama and Harold Ford Jr. intervened today to blast Tinker’s tactics, which Obama called “incendiary.” The vote was held today and Cohen won in a triumphal rout, 79% to 19% - a huge progression since the roughly 30% he received two years ago. Cohen declared, “It says Memphis has come a long, long way and that people who were counting on racial voting to prevail are thinking of a Memphis that doesn’t exist anymore.” Cohen is safe for the general election.

Finally, some news out of KS-02. A few days ago, state Treasurer Jenkins defeated former Rep. Ryun for the GOP primary. There is disagreement over whether Jenkins’s nomination is a good or bad thing for Democratic incumbent Nancy Boyda - some say she is more moderate and will have an easier time uniting the feuding Kansas GOP, others say Ryun was better known and would have made the race more competitive. Either way, Jenkins is sure to give Boyda a run for her money - and the incumbent is now all on her own.

Boyda convinced the DCCC to not help in the general election. Boyda thinks that national Democrats being implicated in her re-election efforts in such a conservative district would give an opening to Jenkins, but it would also have given her the means to hit Jenkins without producing the negative ads herself. If the race is close in late October, Boyda may come to regret that she did not rely on her party’s committee and chose to unilaterally disarm. It is true that being too closely associated with the national party might hurt Boyda in such a red district, but voters rarely cast their ballot based on which group is supporting whom - after all, the DCCC aired plenty of ads on behalf of Cazayoux in LA-06 and Childers in MS-01. At least, Boyda’s refusal will make another Democrat very happy, as she just freed up the $1,2 million the DCCC had already budgeted for her race.

Update: Jaxx Raxor points out that a Republican (first-term) incumbent lost his primary yesterday in TN-01. Indeed, Rep. Davis is the fourth incumbent to fall this year and the first in four decades from Tennessee. I did not have much to say about the race but you can check out The Hill for more information!