Archive for the 'SD-AL' Category

House: Confusion reigns in Hawaii, Herseth-Sandlin’s shaky, WA Dems prepare primary

Published
by
Taniel
on December 16, 2009
in HI-01, SD-AL and WA-03
. 10 Comments

Before we go to the meat of this post (House races!), I want to update my afternoon post on North Carolina polling because I’ll never cease to be amazed by national Democrats’ utter disdain for Marshall. Despite the fact that the Secretary of State is electable and that she would be a more reliable vote for Democrats than Cunningham if she joined the Senate, we now learn that Barack Obama has taken the time to call Cunningham, ensuring he gets covered as having the White House’s implicit support. (This is only the third primary I can think of in which Obama is getting involved with another goal than supporting the incumbent, the other two being NY-Gov and WI-Gov. Am I missing any?)

Hawaii special might be conducted by mail

Rep. Neil Abercrombie was hoping that leaving the House would help him campaigning in Hawaii’s gubernatorial race, but his decision could still come back to haunt him. The state’s Chief Elections Officer Kevin Cronin is insisting that the state has no money to organize a special election: the estimated cost is $2 million, a sum the Office of Elections cannot cover since it already facing a deficit. Abercrombie has already been facing criticism from state Democrats for leaving the state without representation and for endangering the party’s hold on the district, but his resignation’s financial burden should give his opponents powerful ammunition.

It is still unclear what will happen when Abercrombie does finalize his resignation in the coming weeks. Cronin hasn’t ruled out trying to delay the special election until the regularly scheduled September primary; that would seem to go against state law, but what does occur when state officials refuse to organize an election? Alternatively, a mail-in vote could be organized, i.e. voters would only be able to mail in their ballots; this system exists in Oregon, but can Hawaii effectively implement it in just a few months?

These discussions are only making more chaotic an already confused situation: The two Democrats who were already planning to run in next year’s race are not backing down from their plans to both run in the special election, which could help the sole Republican candidate score a pick-up since there will be no primary. In fact, former Rep. Case is already out with the election’s first TV ad. (I already pointed out last week that liberals will want to ensure Case’s defeat because he is far more conservative than is called for in a blue district. But I failed to mention that if he wins Case would be well placed to move up to the Senate once one of the state’s aging senators retires, and it would be quite a blow to the left if Akaka or Inouye were replaced by a Lieberman ally.)

Herseth Sandlin retains a lead, but she is on shaky ground

Public Policy Polling tested South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s prospects of holding on to SD-AL. The good news for Herseth Sandlin: Unlike many other Democratic incumbents who represent tough territory, she doesn’t find herself trailing just any Republican she’s tested against. In fact, she leads a statewide official outside of the margin of error: Against Secretary of State Chris Nelson, she comes out ahead 46% to 39%. Also meaningful is the margin by which she crushes state Rep. Blake Curd 52% to 31%; Curd might be a low-profile opponent, but the bottom line is that voters aren’t rushing to support the GOP nominee and that more than half are willing to commit to supporting the incumbent.

On the other hand, those results also reveal that Herseth Sandlin’s standing is shaky. Not only is she under 50% in her match-up with Nelson, but the Secretary of State’s name recognition is a surprisingly low 41%, which means he has more room to grow than his title might suggest. Furthermore, Herseth Sandlin’s approval rating stands at 49-38, which is not particularly impressive for a state like South Dakota that tends to prize its incumbents. In short, Herseth Sandlin remains favored as she enters 2010 but she certainly has a competitive race on her hand; that’s quite a change of fortunes for someone who just a few months ago was considering seeking higher office.

In WA-03, both parties get their favored candidates

Of the four Dem-held seats that opened up in recent weeks, WA-03 is clearly the most competitive on paper (it swung from Bush to Obama in the past two elections) - and it looks like this will translate in a top-notch battle as both parties are getting some of the candidates they were hoping for. On the GOP side, the party’s standard-bearer could be 31-year old state Rep. Jaime Herrera; a protege of Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rogers, she served as an intern in the Bush White House. While she is certainly far younger than your average congressional candidate, she does appear to have enough political experience to be a strong candidate. It remains to be seen not only how easily she’ll coast to the nomination.

On the Democratic side, we are heading towards a primary between state Senator Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Deb Wallace; the latter is already in the race while the former is reportedly getting there. A third candidate has also jumped in the race: Maria Rodriguez Salazar, an activist and the former vice president for the League of United Latin American Citizens. All 3 candidates appear divided by stark ideological contrasts: Pridemore looks like he would be a mainstream Democrat while Wallace appears like she’d stay true to Baird’s legacy. As for Rodriguez Salazar, she’s introducing herself as a “conservative” and a “Blue Dog.”

This would be important in any primary, but potentially all the more so in WA-03: Local Democrats will want to pay special attention to electing a more reliable congressman than Brian Baird had become (he was a member of the New Democratic Coalition and a rare Democrat from an Obama district to oppose the health-care bill) and thus seize on this opportunity to push the House a bit to the left. My sense is that Pridemore starts as the favorite: Not only does he have a bigger geographic base, but his district contains a larger share of Democrats than Wallace’s, who’ll have to compete with Rodriguez Salazar for the centrist vote. Yet, much of this wil depends on how national Democrats and unions behave and on whether Emily’s List gets involved.

In South Dakota, Secretary of State challenges Herseth Sandlin

Published
by
Taniel
on October 3, 2009
in SD-AL
. 13 Comments

The peculiarity of House races in the nation’s smallest states is that legislators are far less attractive candidates than they would be elsewhere while statewide officials can make particularly formidable contenders since they don’t have to adapt to a new constituency.

Unfortunately for Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who represents the entirety of South Dakota, she landed both varieties of opponents this week. And the one she’ll thus have to worry about the most is Secretary of State Chris Nelson, whose candidacy sets up what will probably be the Democrat’s toughest re-election campaign since she was first elected in a 2004 special election.

In November 2004, Herseth Sandlin faced the same man she had just defeated in a special election; while Larry Diedrich was a strong contender in that first race, it is very rare for a regularly scheduled election to reverse the results of a special. In 2006, she crushed an opponent whose biggest political experience was to serve as a county-level party chairman. In 2008, she received 68% of the vote against a candidate so low-profile that his campaign website’s URL contained “typepad.”

By contrast, Nelson should at the very least make the race worth watching. He has held his current position since 2002, which means that he has represented all of Herseth Sandlin’s constituents for nearly two more years than she has. The NRCC is sure to tout his candidacy, which should mean far stronger fundraising hauls than that of Herseth Sandlin’s previous opponents - not to mention the probable involvement of the national party.

Obviously, that does not make him the favorite - the congresswoman’s name recognition is surely superior to Nelson’s, for one - but South Dakota is conservative enough that a credible Republican nominee should be able not to fall under the 40% floor. That makes Nelson an obviously attractive candidate for the NRCC.

That this is happening in 2010 is of course no coincidence: Whether or not you or I think that the midterms will be a disaster for Democrats (and there are many reasons to think the party is not walking off the cliff), there is no doubt that Republicans think all they need to do is show up and Democratic incumbents will self-implode - which explains why the party is proving increasingly successful at scoring high-profile recruits.

Nelson declared his candidacy just two days after another Republican jumped in the race: state Rep. Blake Curd. While Curd already looked like a step-up from the GOP’s prior nominees, a SD legislator running in the House is less meaningful than it would be in other states, where a state representative often already represents a large share of the congressional district he’s running in. In South Dakota, however, a single House district fits 35 legislative ones.

As such, this is really a far larger stage Curd is stepping into. If he wins the GOP nomination, he might have a shot at defeating the incumbent but it would take quite a disastrous environment for Democrats.

Indeed, Herseth Sandlin is no obvious target. She might represent a hostile district, but she has a lot of factors going for her. For one, South Dakota has a history of electing Democrats to federal races. Second, she has a popular last name since her grandfather served as Governor; that could protect her even if voters turn against Democrats. Third, and perhaps most importantly, incumbency is a big advantage in small states like SD, which rely on their congressmen’s seniority-fueled clout to have a disproportionate share of influence in the federal government.

That Herseth Sandlin finds herself facing a potentially competitive re-election race confirms that losing a substantial number of seats in 2010 will not necessarily damage Barack Obama’s agenda (at least as long as Democrats keep the majority). Indeed, many of the incumbents the NRCC is actively targeting are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, which have been reluctant to support the Democratic leadership on tight roll calls to start with; Herseth Sandlin herself is one of that group’s 3 co-chairs. She has recently taken a leading role in organizing opposition to a strong public option among House Democrats.

That said, Herseth Sandlin’s re-election race is important beyond the composition of the House: With South Dakota’s history of electing House members to the Senate, she is Democrats’ main hope of successfully defending Senator Tim Johnson’s Senate seat when he’ll choose to retire, presumably in 2014.

Don’t count on South Dakota to supply any competitive race in ‘10

Published
by
Taniel
on July 8, 2009
in SD-AL, SD-Gov and SD-Sen
. 0 Comments

Prominent politicians seem to have taken the 4th of July week-end to finalize their 2010 plans, as the past two days have brought an avalanche of electoral announcements. The latest to make up her mind is South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, who today announced she will seek re-election rather than run for higher office.

While her decision is a blow to her party’s prospects in the gubernatorial race, it’s hard not to portray this as good news for Democrats. Had she sought a new position, she would have been the clear underdog and she would have created a nightmare for the DCCC at the House level: The GOP would have been favored to pick-up an open seat, especially in a midterm election that could be fought in a tough environment for Democrats.

This scenario would also have been catastrophic for Senate Democrats. South Dakota’s sole representative is typically the front-runner to eventually move up to the higher chamber (Tom Dashle, Tim Johnson and John Thune all first served in the House). While Republicans have a deep enough bench that many of their politicians could win an open Senate seat, Democrats are in hostile territory so their nominee will need to already be a formidable contender. As such, Herseth Sandlin is the DSCC’s most (only?) credible hope to hold on to Tim Johnson’s seat once the longtime Democratic Senator retires (presumably in 2014).

And yet, Herseth Sandlin had been flirting with the prospect of seeking higher office for months. Earlier this year, press outlets even reported that she was “planning” a gubernatorial run, and the congresswoman also said she was also looking at challenging Senator Thune. Thus, today’s announcement was no preordained conclusion and it is a genuinely newsworthy development.

Herseth Sandlin’s decision takes care of most of the questions we had about South Dakota’s 2010 cycle: We can already say that it is is highly unlikely any of the state’s three major races will be competitive next year. Let’s look at them in order.

House: Herseth should coast but keep an eye on Nelson

Herseth Sandlin might not be representing the most hospitable district, but she has easily own her re-election races (she received 69% in 2006 and 68% in 2008). Small states like the Dakotas like to hold on to their congresspeople because their only hope for exercising political influence is to have senior legislators, so Herseth Sandlin’s entrenchment should allow her to serve many more terms in the House.

One potential obstacle: In signaling interest in a House bid, Secretary of State Chris Nelson has specified he might run even if Herseth Sandlin seeks re-election. The Democrat’s popularity and incumbency would make her the clear favorite, but South Dakota is conservative enough that Nelson would have a shot at an upset.

Governor: The GOP primary will determine the victor

Mike Rounds is term-limited, so this will be an open race. But Herseth Sandlin was the only Democrat in any position to contest the race. The GOP has controlled the Governor’s Mansion since 1979, and they’re likely to extend that streak for another four years though it remains to be seen who will emerge as the GOP nominee. A number of Republicans are already in the race, including state Senator Dave Knudson, Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman.

Senate: Thune is safe

However much Democrats would love to beat Dashle’s slayer, it doesn’t look like John Thune has anything to worry about. Just like in the gubernatorial contest, Herseth Sandlin was the only potential challenger to pose a potential threat and even she would have been unlikely to get very far: An April poll showed Thune up 12%. The conservative Senator, who has been rising in the GOP leadership, should thus be able to spend the 2010 cycle traveling the country, helping fellow Republicans and building good-will for a potential presidential run in 2012.

NRCC goes after Kratovil and red-district Democrats, loses a challenger in North Carolina

Published
by
Taniel
on May 28, 2009
in AR-02, FL-24, NC-08, NM-02, SD-AL, VA-02, VA-05 and WI-03
. 1 Comment

Earlier this year, the NRCC launched a massive attack against 33 Democratic representatives; but only one incumbent found himself targeted by a TV ad: Zach Space (OH-18). A few months have passed and the Republican committee is using the same strategy.

In a new wave of attacks that targets 17 Democrats, TV ads will be aired in only one district: MD-01, held by Frank Kratovil. Additionally, radio ads will air against six Democrats: Vic Snyder (AR-02), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Harry Teague (NM-02), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Glenn Nye (VA-02) and Tom Perriello (VA-05).

What do all these Democrats have in common? They all represent conservative-leaning territory: John McCain won all but VA-02, a district in which Obama received 2% but where George W. Bush prevailed by 16% in 2004. In 2010, Republicans are hoping that these district’s conservative nature will reassert itself since the environment is unlikely to be as favorable to Democrats as it was over the past two cycles and they are thus looking to soften these incumbent’s image by blasting them as partisan Democrats and as liberals.

And the GOP has long decided how it will do that: Use Nancy Pelosi as a boogeywoman. The NRCC’s previous wave of ad attacked Blue Dog Democrats on spending matters. “Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit,” said the ad that aired in OH-18. “And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Now, the NRCC is focusing on Pelosi’s recent back-and-forth with the CIA. “Lying to Congress would be a crime, so why won’t Pelosi investigate the “crime”?,” asks the ad that will air in Maryland’s 1st District. “Frank Kratovil sided with Pelosi to block an investigation. Frank Kratovil, voting with Nancy Pelosi 89% of the time.”

Contrary to what the GOP seems to think, it has not gained the upper-hand on this issue: Polls suggest that the CIA’s reputation is damaged enough that the public did not automatically dismiss Pelosi’s claims. Yet, what might not be a winning argument for the NRCC in most parts of the country could very well be a successful one in red districts like MD-01: Pelosi is very unpopular among Republicans and conservative-leaning voters (a constituency among which these 7 Democrats need to do well) were likely appalled by the Speaker’s contention that the CIA lied.

Democrats who have represented very hostile districts for decades (think Rep. Taylor of Mississippi) have had the time to convince their Republican constituents that they are not automatic votes in favor of the leadership of their party. As such, they have become very difficult to dislodge. But Kratovil, Kosmas, Teague, Nye and Perriello are all freshman and sit in red-leaning districts: the NRCC thus believes it can turn conservative-leaning voters against them, which explains why they are all being targeted.

Herseth Sandlin has easily won her 3 re-election races so her situation is different, but there is some buzz about her facing her first serious challenger - not to mention that she is mulling a gubernatorial run so the NRCC might be looking to pressure into leaving the House. As for Vic Snyder, he is one of those entrenched Democrats I mentioned above but the NRCC has by now made it clear it will go after Snyder and AR-01’s Marion Berry.

To truly make thee Arkansas Democrats vulnerable, the GOP will have to land top challengers, but given how entrenched both Snyder and Berry are the NRCC can hope to convince anyone to run unless they demonstrate their willingness to spend hard money on these districts. Indeed, early advertising is one thing, recruiting credible challengers is quite another. While the GOP has met some success in blue-leaning districts like OR-04 and CA-47, it still has work to do against the more obviously vulnerable Democrats.

In NC-08, a swing district in which Larry Kissell won a tough battle in 2008, Republicans were talking up the potential candidacy of Mike Minter. A former football, Minter looked interested in the race but, in a clear blow to the NRCC, he recently announced that he would not run. (This might open the door to a comeback by former Rep. Hayes, though he would probably not be the GOP’s best option.)

As much as I would like to think that athletes cannot just waltz their way into the political arena and win, there is enough evidence to suggest that Minter would have been a formidable candidate - starting with Democrat Heath Shuler, another football star who successfuly ran against an incumbent in 2006. Minter spent his entire career playing for the Carolina Panthers, which gives him huge name recognition and popularity in this district. (The Panthers are based in Charlotte, part of which is contained in NC-08.)

The GOP might have more success in WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind, who has easily held since his first victory in 1996, has not mentioned as a potentially vulnerable incumbent but he could soon draw a serious opponent: state Senator Dan Kapanke is signaling his interest in challenging Kind. WI-03 only narrowly went for Gore and Kerry (3% each time) but Obama received 58% of the vote. As such, it is not the most obvious place for an unexpected Republican offensive, but trying to expand the map to usually uncontested districts certainly did not hurt Democrats in 2006.

Crist, Herseth Sandlin hint at 2010 plans

Published
by
Taniel
on March 24, 2009
in FL-Sen, SD-AL and SD-Gov
. 2 Comments

The day’s biggest political news - from an electoral and a policy perspective - is undoubtedly Arlen Specter’s speech on the Senate floor announcing he would vote against EFCA. More on that later tonight, when I will have time to sit down and parse through the latest developments; for now; let’s take care of some recruitment news.

Charlie Crist gets closer to Senate race, but can he count on a cleared primary?

Florida Governor Charlie Crist was once considered highly unlikely to jump in Florida’s Senate race, but he has been flirting with the possibility increasingly explicitly since the beginning of the year. And while he has said that he will not announce a decision until the end of Florida’s legislation session, Crist is taking subtle steps towards a Senate run. Post on Politics reports that Crist is now alluding to plans to form an exploratory committee. “I haven’t really thought much about it,” he said. “Others have suggested that might be a smart thing to do, but no decision has yet been made.”

Getting Crist to even consider the Senate race is the NRSC’s biggest success of the cycle so far. Yet, can Crist remain as formidable a contender in the months ahead? As I explained on Monday, Governors across the country are seeing their fortune decline as they have to deal with budget woes, spending cuts and painful decisions on tax hikes and fees; even popular Governors like Ted Strickland and Bill Ritter are seeing their approval ratings decline. Crist has shown little sign of weakness for now, but he is confronted with the same fiscal problems as other Governors - as Fried Gator has been documenting. (And don’t forget that Florida has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country.)

How long can Crist sustain a strong political position in the face of the economic crisis? He might look unbeatable today, but Democrats would be foolish not to field a strong enough competitor to take advantage of a potential blow black to Crist’s gubernatorial policies. In fact, it looks like some Republicans are also getting embolden enough to risk getting on Crist’s bad side! Yesterday, former House Speaker Marco Rubio recently released a video in which he takes an unmistakable dig at Crist. “Our new leaders in Washington say the only solution is to implement the single largest permanent expansion of government in American history and they pay for it with money we don’t have,” he said. “Unfortunately, even some Republicans here in Florida have embraced this idea.”

Rubio, who has already formed an exploratory committee, has said that he would run for Governor if Crist jumps in the Senate race. With that in mind, Rubio’s comments should be interpreted as an attempt to carve himself a conservative positioning rather than an indication that he would consider running against Crist in the Senate primary - the exact same situation as Pennsylvania’s Jim Gerlach. Yet, Rubio’s comments certainly suggest that there is some discontent against Crist among Republicans. The Governor is not looking at as easy a race as he might have gotten a few months ago.

Herseth Sandlin leaning towards re-election race

There is little doubt that South Dakota’s sole representative, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, will one day seek higher office. And while I initially expressed my doubts that she would leave her relatively safe House seat in 2010, press reports suggested that Herseth Sandlin was “planning” a gubernatorial run (the Governor’s race will be open in 2010). That was good news for Democrats on the gubernatorial front (it’s unlikely anyone else could pick-up the seat), but worrisome news for the DCCC, since an open seat in SD-AL would be one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities.

It now looks like the conventional wisdom is shifting again based on Herseth Slandin’s interview to The Argus Leader. While she acknowledged that she was thinking not only about the gubernatorial race but also about a challenge to Senator John Thune, Herseth Sandlin sure sounded like she is leaning towards running for re-election. Not only did she detail the long odds that would face her in a senatorial or gubernatorial run, but she also talked up her job as a House member.

“I feel strongly that South Dakota’s at-large (House) seat becomes more influential the more seniority you have on your committees, and I think that the committees on which I serve are very beneficial to my constituents,” she said. “I don’t want to disregard what the five years I have under my belt could mean for South Dakota… A lot of the issues that we’re grappling with - health care reform and energy policy - are not going to all be resolved by 2010.” These comments do not close any doors, but they are clear enough to disappoint the DGA and the DSCC and to reassure the DCCC.

The electoral consequences of Obama’s Cabinet picks

Published
by
Taniel
on December 21, 2008
in AL-07, AZ-Gov, CA-32, CO-03, IL-05, KS-Gov, KS-Sen, MA-Sen, ME-Sen, MI-Gov, MN-07, NJ-Gov, NM-Sen, NY-Sen, RI-Sen, SD-AL, SD-Sen and TX-17
. 6 Comments

Ever since Barack Obama’s election, there has been intense speculation surrounding his Cabinet positions. A lot of it has concerned the electoral consequences of tapping Governors, Senators and House members: Would the seat switch parties, who would take over, and what would it mean for the 2010 landscape?

Now that Obama has filled his Cabinet, it is time to offer is a rundown of elected officials who were nominated, those who were rumored but did not make the cut - and what all of this means to the political landscape.

—

Those who were tapped

  • Hillary Clinton, New York

The unexpected news that Hillary Clinton was being considered for a Secretary of State position captivated the political class throughout November. The deed was finally consummated, capping a remarkable year for Hillary and Barack. Clinton’s nomination also opened a vacancy in one of the country’s largest and most Democratic state, focused everyone’s attention on Governor David Paterson and subsequently on Caroline Kennedy, added a Senate race to the 2010 line-up and provided the GOP a glimmer of hope of picking-up a seat.

  • Tom Dashle, South Dakota

Some Democrats dreamed of Dashle challenging John Thune to a Senate rematch in 2010 - a scenario that is now foreclosed by Dashle’s appointment as HHS Secretary. However, it was always very unlikely that Dashle would jump in the race, so Obama’s pick changed very little electorally.

  • Rahm Emanuel, IL-05

IL-05 is a Chicago-based district that is heavily Democratic. Such an open seat can only mean one thing: A chaotic intra-party battle between dozens of city-level Democrats who have been waiting for years to move up the ladder, with no possibility that a Republican even dream about winning the seat.

  • Janet Napolitano, Arizona

Janet Napolitano’s appointment to the Homeland Security Department is Obama’s one nomination that has already cost Democrats a seat. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer will take over as the state’s Governor. Given that Brewer was already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat in 2010 (Napolitano would not have been able to run due to term limit laws), it seems a safe bet to say that she will run now that she can do so as an incumbent. This gives Republicans the clear upper hand in what was expected to be one of the most competitive open seats of 2010.

  • Bill Richardson, New Mexico

Richardson’s Cabinet prospects seemed to end with Hillary Clinton’s nomination to Foggy Bottom, but the New Mexico Governor will be reborn as Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. A Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, will take over and will thus have the upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Due to term-limits, Richardson was not allowed to run for re-election which means that the seat would have been open. But Denish, who was already considered a likely candidate before Richardon’s nomination, can now run as an incumbent.

  • Ken Salazar, Colorado

Ken Salazar’s nomination to the Interior Department created the fourth Senate vacancy due to Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will choose Salazar’s successor, and Democrats have a deep enough bench in Colorado that Ritter has plenty of contenders to choose from. (I summarized the politics of this appointment two days ago.) Salazar’s departure from the Senate gives an opening to Republicans, but two factors minimize its impact. First, Salazar was up for re-election in 2010, so this will not add an additional seat for Democrats to defend. Second, Salazar was not safe to start with.

  • Hilda Solis, CA-32

Rep. Solis’s appointment as Secretary of Labor was unexpected, but the special election that will be triggered after Solis’s confirmation won’t give the DCCC many headaches: CA-32 is a very Democratic district that gave John Kerry 62% of the vote in 2004.

  • Tom Vilsack, Iowa

Vilsack’s unexpected nomination as Secretary of Agriculture has one immediate electoral consequence: we are now sure that Vilsack will not run for Senate in 2010. Vilsack might have been the only Democrat strong enough to credibly challenge Senator Chuck Grassley. Vilsack’s nomination might also make it more likely that Grassley run for re-election since he no longer has to worry about spending two grueling years on the campaign trail. All of this said, a Vilsack candidacy was only a possibility, and many considered it unlikely.

—

Those who were not:

  • Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, Maine

Some Democrats were pushing the idea of tapping one of Maine’s two moderate Senators as one of the Republican Cabinet members Obama had promised in order to allow Maine’s Democratic Governor to appoint their (Democratic) successor.

  • John Corzine, New Jersey

After Larry Summer’s name faded in mid-November, John Corzine was mentioned as a possible Secretary of the Treasury. This would have elevated State Senate President Richard Codey as acting Governor, a position he already occupied after Jim McGreevey’s resignation in 2004. It would also have meant a far more entertaining gubernatorial race in 2009.

  • Arthur Davis, AL-07

Rep. Davis is said to have statewide ambitions - perhaps as early as 2010 - so this seat could soon be open, but Democrats have little to worry about: This is a heavily Democratic and African-American district that gave Kerry 64% of the vote in 2004.

  • Chet Edwards, TX-17

First mentioned as a vice-presidential contender over the summer, Edwards saw his name back in the mix during Obama’s transition efforts. Edwards represents a heavily Republican district, and it would have been very difficult to envision Democrats holding on to his seat in a special election had Edwards joined Obama’s Cabinet.

  • Jennifer Granholm, Michigan

Michigan’s Governor was mentioned as a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Labor. Her appointment would have elevated Democrat John Cherry in the Governor’s position and given the Democratic Party the early upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. As it stands now, Granholm is term-limited and the race will be one of the country’s most competitive open seats.

  • Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota

Rep. Stephanie Herseth was mentioned as one of the finalists for the Secretary of Agriculture positions, and her appointment would have been a nightmare for House Democrats. South Dakota remains a Republican enough state that the GOP would have had a great shot at reclaiming the seat in a spring special election. This could have consequences down the line for Tim Johnson’s Senate succession.

  • John Kerry, Massachusetts

The former presidential candidate was rumored to be the most likely to be picked as Secretary of State and Massachusetts Democrats were already preparing for a 2009 special election (there is no gubernatorial appointment in the state). But Hillary Clinton’s unexpected emergence thwarted Kerry’s hopes - and those of the hundreds of Massachusetts Democrats who have been waiting for decades for Senate and/or House seats to open up.

  • Colin Peterson, MN-07

Rumored to have been on the short list for Secretary of Agriculture alongside Rep. Herseth, Peterson’s appointment would have triggered a difficult special election for Democrats. Now Chairman of the House’s Agriculture Committee, Peterson is entrenched and senior enough that he can keep his seat blue, but MN-07 is a Republican-leaning district that gave George Bush big winning margins and that narrowly went for John McCain this year.

  • Jack Reed, Rhode Island

Just like Chet Edwards, Jack Reed made a strong apparition in the summer’s veepstakes, and his name was mentioned as a possible Secretary of State. One reason his prospects might have been thwarted is that Rhode Island’s Governor is a Republican, so a Reed appointment would have resulted in an additional GOP Senator.

  • John Salazar, CO-03

Salazar’s name was often mentioned as Secretary of Interior but his brother - Senator Ken Salazar - ended up getting the nod. This is a relief for House Democrats, as CO-03 is a Republican-leaning district that would have been tough to defend in a special election. (That said, we might still have a vacancy in CO-03 since John is on the list of Democrats who could be appointed to Ken’s Senate seat.)

  • Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas

The Kansas Governor seemed certain to land in Obama’s Cabinet. She had been on his vice-presidential short list and was considered a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Labor. Her statement withdrawing her name from Cabinet considerations was thus one of the biggest surprises of this transition period. (It is of course unclear whether Sebelius issued the statement because she genuinely wanted to help Kansas through the economic crisis or because she had already been told she was unlikely to get an appointment.)

In any case, her withdrawal preserves the governorship in Democratic hands (the next-in-line is a Republican); it could have a huge impact on the upcoming open Senate race. Democrats have not won a Senate race in this state since 1936, and Sebelius is probably the only Democrat who stands a chance. A Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running and would have guaranteed that the Senate race remain in Republican hands.