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Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

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Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

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Category Archive for ‘RI-Dem’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'RI-Dem' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

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Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Increasing the confusion, Democrats refuse to settle

Democratic voters do not want this race to end. Given the opportunity to hand the nomination to Barack Obama, they rallied behind Hillary Clinton and made sure the race would go on until — at least — April 22nd. So however burned out you feel, prepare for more debates, more Election Nights, more primary polls and more delegate counts. We are in this for the long haul.

There were two separate questions to be answered last night: First, would Clinton be able to survive and stay in the race? Second, would she be able to change the fundamentals of the race and win comfortably enough to get herself back in the nomination battle? The answer I offered yesterday to the latter — more interesting — question was that she needed “to triumph in Ohio by double-digits and win Texas comfortably enough to get a delegate lead (and probably win Rhode Island as well). A tall order for the New York Senator.”

Incredibly enough, Hillary pulled that off: She won Ohio by 10%, posted an unlikely triumph in Rhode Island (by a margin bigger than in New York) and while she only won the Texas primary by 4%, she managed to pull out a delegate lead thanks to unexpectedly strong numbers in a handful of border districts where she managed to gain 3 out of 4 delegates. Boosted by those very strong results, the Clinton campaign powers on.

So this means that Clinton now has a stronger chance to become the Democratic nominee, right? Not so fast, things could never be that simple in this Democratic primary. Campaign Diaries’s count prior to March 4th gave Obama a 148 pledged delegate lead. The compilation of yesterday’s results shows that Clinton netted between 15 and 19 delegates — without counting the Texas caucuses since results are still unknown at this hour. That’s a much larger number than was expected, and credit goes to the Clinton campaign for having pulled that out. It is also the first Election Day in which Clinton nets a delegate gain (New Hampshire splits its delegates equally and Obama got one more in Nevada)! But those numbers also mean that Clinton was only able to cut into a very small fraction of Obama’s overall lead.

The math is overwhelmingly against the Clinton campaign: They have to count on huge margins in all upcoming states (starting with Pennsylvania) and prevent falling behind in states that Obama is heavily favored in (such as Mississippi). Clinton simply does not have a path that gives her a pledged delegate lead right now. Now, the campaign will push for revotes in Florida and Michigan. Adding those states to the mix would give Clinton a reservoir of delegates to still be awarded, increasing her chances of cutting into Obama’s lead.

This is what has made the Democratic contest into such a paradox: Mathematically speaking, Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination. But how can he convince superdelegates to join him and the party to coronate him without winning important occasions such as this? And on the other side we have Clinton, a candidate who is very unlikely to get the nomination but who can now press ahead with new-found momentum.

To make matters worse for Obama, yesterday’s vote uncovered a certain number of weaknesses that the Clinton campaign will point to in the coming days in an effort to freeze the superdelegate migration towards the Illinois Senator. The exit polls showed that Clinton held her demographic group very well. She won the Latino vote in Texas nearly 2:1. In Ohio, the groups that had abandoned her in Wisconsin were back in her corner: She won by 18% among those with no college degree, triumphed among the female vote and regained a significant edge among white males. And this time, she cut into Obama’s demographics groups: She won the male vote by 3% in Ohio, forced a tie among Republican and independent voters, as well as among the high-income electorate. Obama’s demographic coalition was the one that trembled, and his weakness among blue-collar voters and Latinos was once again on full display. This will be Argument A in Clinton’s case to superdelegates.

Finally, there is the question of how Clinton pulled this off. In New Hampshire, she had benefited from a last minute boost among the female vote. In Ohio and in Texas, her comeback was fueled by last-minute deciders as well, as she posted some massive leads among those who had decided in the past 3 days. The two stories that dominated the last few days of campaigning were first the questions about Obama’s national security credentials (fueled by the red phone ad) and second the controversy surrounding Obama’s stance on NAFTA.

Which of these factors was determinant in yesterday’s vote? The one hint we have is that Clinton’s victory was more overwhelming in Ohio than in Texas, pointing to the NAFTA story being more important. And the Obama campaign should use that as a lesson in crisis control, as they messed up their response to Canada’s allegations, not settling on a coherent defense for long enough to make the story even more damning than it was.

The Clinton campaign, however, will probably point to the red phone ad and the spot attacking Obama’s Senate record as factors as well. They will take comfort in the late decider breakdown and take that as encouragement to step up attacks on Obama’s credentials. Last night’s results could prompt Clinton to go much more negative than she has up to now. Given that the press is turning the spotlight increasingly on Obama, the Illinois Senator could be in for a rough 6 weeks.

And this is why Obama will regret yesterday’s results for a long time to come. He is still the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, and should only increase his delegate lead next Tuesday in Mississippi. But instead of turning his attention to John McCain, he will spent the next 6 weeks being questioned by the media and attacked by Clinton. And keep in mind that she is as trapped as her rival is: She must realize how unlikely her path to the nomination is, but she cannot possibly drop out with this kind of results.

Two months after Iowa, Democrats are continuing to go through the motions of a competitive race that could take the intra-party fight all the way to Denver in late August 2008. By all measures, it is difficult to identify a scenario in which Obama loses the nomination. But it is as difficult to see how he can put an end to this race any time soon.


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The morning after: Postcripts on results and delegate count

Sorry for the late posting today. It was a late night and I am just getting to settle on an understanding of what happened yesterday. A full analysis will come soon but here are some pointers on the results and the delegate count.

In Rhode Island, it was unclear as of last night whether Clinton would get a 5 delegate lead or have to settle for a 12-9 split. Clinton got her 13th delegate after all, one of the only states (with Arkansas?) in which she really maximized the delegate potential. In Vermont, we already knew yesterday that Obama would have to settle for a 9-3 delegate split.

In Ohio, Clinton barely hang on to a double-digit victory when all of Cleveland was in (though there is still one outstanding county that has reporting no votes at all?!). Still unclear is how big a delegate lead Clinton will get here. My estimation of the delegate count — going district by district — gives her a 11 or 13 delegate lead, with a 5 delegate lead statewide and a 6 to 8 district-based delegate lead. The even-district rules hurt Clinton hurt, as a lot of the districts she did well in were 4 delegate districts. She got in the high 50s in a few of them, making those places a wash delegate wise. Other estimations have Clinton’s lead a bit higher, so we will know more soon.

In Texas, Clinton has won the primary delegate count, something many people were doubting she could do with such a narrow victory. The count is 65-61 in her favor. As I indicated last night, she did so by getting a 3-1 split in border districts (the 19th, 20th, 21st in particular), places we were expecting to see 2-2 splits. And she had to split many districts 2-2 despite winning them. One big question mark is TX-26 where Clinton just barely missed the 62.5% mark. But in the early voting numbers, the count has Obama at 17,000 votes and Clinton at only… 1 vote, less than Joe Biden (who got 181). There is obviously a counting mistake there that could give Clinton an extra delegate once it is corrected.
In the Texas caucuses, the count appears to have been stuck at 36% reporting for almost 11 hours now, with Obama up 52% to 48%. I am not sure what is going on.

Overall, that means that Clinton scored a net 17 to 21 delegates (depending on what happens in TX-26 and the final Ohio count) over Obama — prior to the Texas caucuses. The latter are unlikely to have such a big gap, so Clinton looks to have won the delegate count out of yesterday. Though not overwhelmingly, it’s more than most people expected, even those who thought Clinton could pull off 3 victories.

In important congressional races, Denis Kucinich survived a tough primary challenge in OH-10 (approximately an 18% lead). In TX-14, Ron Paul survived a primary challenge as well. But the very interesting result is in TX-22, where Republicans selected Shelley Sekula Gibbs as their candidate against Rep. Lampson (in Tom Delay’s former district). You might remember Sekula Gibbs was that infamous write-in candidate who then served in the House for 2 months, and attracted countless negative stories. She won this primary with only 29% of the vote, and it doesn’t seem that she is going into the general in the strongest shape. (Update: I stand corrected from a very knowledgeable commenter, who points out that Texas has a runoff system in its primaries, so that Sekula Gibbs and Pete Olson will fight it out in an April 8th election for the right to take on Lampson.)


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March 4th results thread: The race is shuffled… yet another time!

2am: Contrary to what most reports are indicating, it looks like Clinton could win the delegate count of the Texas primary, despite the fact that she is only winning the state by 4% right now (a margin that could still decrease). Burnt Orange Rerport has posted a very very important breakdown by state senate districts, and it projects Clinton ahead 64 delegates to 62 delegates. Now, we were expecting Clinton to lose the delegate count with such a small victory, but here is why that is not happening: the 19th, 20th, 21st districts — at the border — all look like they went for Clinton with more than 62.5% of the vote, which means she got a 3-1 delegate in all of them. She got more than her total delegate lead just in those districts, and we were expecting the two candidates to split most of these 2-2 (In the 26th as of now, Clinton is barely missing the mark and has to settle for a very disappointing 2-2 split, though this could still vary). By building up huge margins in these Latino districts, Clinton is unexpectedly strong in the delegate count and she offsets the fact that delegate are disproportionaletly attributed in Obama-heavy districts. To add insult to inury, it seems that Obama missed the 6-2 split in Austin and has to settle for a 5-3 split instead in the biggest prize of the night! All these districts are stil counting votes, so the delegate allocation can still change — and I will keep an eye on it.
With that, Clinton goes into the caucus part of Texas with a small cushion. Let’s see if that’s enough to get her a delegate lead out of March 4th. With 22% in, Obama is up 56% to 44% — clearly this could be a big result for him.

1:40am: The new updated OH exit polls show that Clinton won by improving her stance in some Obama demographics: She won the male vote by 3%, and only trailed by 4% among college graduates (whereas she won by 18% among those with no degree). She even tied him among families with an income of more than $100,000. Finally, the exit poll suggests that Clinton forced a tie among the 30% of independents and registered Republicans who participated in this primary. She made no inroads whatsoever, however, among black voters, a group she lost 87% to 13%, but her strength among the white vote (64% to 34%) is surprising given how much she had weakened there in the past few weeks — and especially among white men, a group she had serious trouble with as of late but among which she won 58% to 39%. Also determinant, Clinton has a 16% lead among those who decided over the past week (and even bigger among those who decided in the past 3 days.

1:20am: The official Vermont delegate count is 9-6. In Rhode Island, it is still unclear as to whether Clinton got a 3 or a 5 delegate lead. In Ohio, meanwhile, Cincinnati is now fully in (finally) but Cleveland is two thirds reporting. Obama is not creating any kind of big margin there (52% to 47%), so it now appears pretty much certain that Clinton will get a double-digit lead in Ohio (with 92% reporting, she is up 55% to 43%), which I had pointed at hours ago as the mark above which Clinton could hope to create a new narrative in this race ( I confess I did not expect her to meet the double-digit mark)!

1:00am: Texas called for Clinton! Incredible night for the New York Senator who won 3 out of 4 contests, two of them decisively.
With 77% reporting, she is up 51% to 47% — and Austin, Dallas and Houstin will not be enough to change that. The delegate count is still unclear, but as I said earlier there is some hope for Clinton in these Southern districts in which she is posting some huge margins. In Houston and Dallas, however, Obama appears to be just above the threshold for that extra delegate, which should help him in the final count.
The caucuses, meanwhile, are starting to report. With 5% in only, Obama is up 56% to 44%.

12:10am: This could end up being a huge factor in the Texas primary: Clinton is getting some huge margins in Southern Texas, above 70% (even 80%) in many of the counties there. And they aren’t small counties either: In Hidalgo County, for example, gives Clinton 50,000 votes to Obama’s 17,000… with only 49% reporting (which also implies Clinton still has some vote reserves here). Why is this especially important? This is an area with 4 delegate districts which the candidates were supposed to split 2-2. If Clinton is able to open up a 3-1 delegate district in a few districts here, it could allow her to get an unexpected delegate lead in places we were expected to see a tie.
She is leading 51% to 48% statewide right now, more than 60,000 votes ahead. But Houston is still barely reporting.

11:50pm:
Obama speaks in San Antonio, Texas, accuses McCain and Clinton of “echoing each other.” Expect him to pick up this theme in the coming days. In Ohio, Clinton is still up 56% to 42% and Cleveland has started reporting! And with 16% reporting… Clinton is actually very narrowly ahead. It looks like Clinton will maintain a double-digit lead in this state. In Texas, meanwhile, Clinton has passed the million votes mark and is 50,000 votes ahead.

11:30pm:
In an enthusiastic victory speech from Columbus, Ohio, Clinton repeated “Yes we will,” vowed to press on and give millions of Americans who still haven’t voted a chance to vote: “We’re going on, we’re going strong, and we’re going all the way!” She is showing no intention of withdrawing, and unless Obama really turns things around in Texas, it’s going to be hard to force her out of the race until… April 22nd.
In Texas, we have crossed the 50% precincts reporting mark — and Clinton is up 30,000 votes. Austin is now 64% reporting and Dallas is at 54%, so they are both above the statewide number, not a good sign for Obama. In Houston, however, we are still at 14% reporting, so there still are a lot of votes to come from there. Clinton can count on El Paso — 12% reporting — where she is leading by a huge margin for now (69-25). No word from the caucuses yet.

11:15pm:
Austin and Dallas suddenly reported a big chunk of their votes (they are up to 30% and 35% reporting respectively), but Clinton managed to cling to her lead, albeit a very small one (17,000 votes). In Ohio, it’s still 57% to 41% with almost two thirds of the vote reporting, and here again Obama’s strongholds are finally reporting: Cincinnati is now 20% in.

11pm: Ohio is called for Clinton!
The networks are not waiting for Cincinnati and Cleveland to start reporting to call Ohio. The margin is so big at this point that even big Obama margins in those cities could close the gap. For now she is only increasing her lead, back in front 58% to 40%.
In Texas, Clinton is pulling ahead quickly (though the big cities are still out); she is now up 20,000 votes.

10:50pm: Clinton has overtaken Obama in Texas (by 1,100 votes), with 24% of precincts in. She has been rising very steadily since the early votes put her down by about 100,000 votes about 90 minutes ago. There are two conflicting factors are at play here: (1) The Obama-favoring cities have yet to report, and while El Paso and San Antonio haven’t either Obama’s strongholds have more voters. (2) Clinton’s huge late momentum (61% among those who decided in the past 3 days) means that we have to expect that she gets a lead among those who voted today, which makes this steady catch-up game entirely logical.
In Texas, still no news from the caucuses but as much as the system is defensible in places like Iowa which know how to run a caucus, it makes no sense in a state that never seen anything like this and is finding itself entirely overwhelmed.

10:30pm:
The margin in Texas keeps getting smaller, a 9,000 votes margin for Obama now (49-49) with 19% reporting! It’s difficult to know exactly which districts are reporting faster he
re given the early voting numbers, but it does look that Austin, Dallas and Houston are reporting much slower — which is good news for Obama — but neither have El Paso and San Antonio. In Ohio, things look good for Clinton right now (56% to 42%) as Obama’s margin in a place like Columbus is a bit smaller than it should be, but it is obviously impossible to know what is going on until we get an idea of the kind of margin in Cincinnati and Cleveland.
A few clues about exit polls: 61% of those who chose in the last 3 days in Texas went for Hillary Clinton, providing her a crucial last minute boost. The big debate, of course, will be what cause this last-minute surge. Also crucial to Clinton’s win: (1) Latinos backed her heavily, 63% to 35% and (2) independents and Republicans (about 30% of the vote combined) gave a very small edge to Obama, within single digits, a much smaller margin than in some of the previous contests.

10:10pm:
CNN is describing scenes of chaos in the Texas caucuses, for example a voting location at which there were so many people in the room as to create a fire hazard, leaving to hundreds of people being left out of the room… with no one knowing what to do with them. You can be sure the Clinton campaign is taking notes of all of this to mount a strongest than ever charge against caucuses in coming days (if they are still alive, of course, which is still unclear at this late hour). In Austin, meanwhile, one of the caucuses has not started yet… as they aren’t able to get things organized. That means people have been waiting there for 2 hours.
In Rhode Island, Clinton is keeping her huge 61% to 38% lead (this is bigger than in New York right now), though this is one place where even-delegate districts could hurt her bid to get more delegates — the most likely scenario right now is a 3 delegate lead, though this will obviously evolve.
In Ohio, 35% reporting still put Clinton up 57% to 41% but 0% of Cleveland and Cincinnati’s counties are reporting, though we are at 45% of Columbus’s counties (with Obama up by 10% there). In Texas, with 15% reporting now we are at a 27,000 vote margin.

9:55pm:
McCain gives his victory speech, with a banner reading “1191″ in the audience. He devotes a significant part of his speech to Iraq, and on national security more general, a clear signal of where is going to take the race over the next few months. He goes on to discussing the economy to some length at well, mocking the Democratic refusal of trade and globalization. He ends with, “The contest begins tonight.”
Meanwhile, there is interesting movement in the Democratic side: In Ohio, we are now at 21% counted and Clinton is hanging on to a 20% lead. (Remember that she led by a huge margin Missouri for most of Super Tuesday until St. Louis reported. We will know more about Ohio as soon as the cities start reporting). In Texas, Obama is now suddenly up by only 51% to 48%, a 35,000 vote margin. But the surprise comes from Rhode Island, where Clinton is leading 62% to 36% with 28% reporting (with 70% in the Provide County!) — this could give her more delegate than most of us expected if she holds on to that margin.

9:30pm: Rhode Island called for Hillary Clinton
, her first win since February 5th, and breaking a 12 win-streak for Obama! Now let’s see whether she can get any delegate advantage out of this. In Texas, we are now at a 53-46 margin, with more than 1 million votes counted. In Ohio, we have reached the 11% precincts mark, with a 24% Clinton lead (as I explained 5 minute sago, however, the Obama-heavy parts of the state are not reporting at all, including Cincinnati and Cleveland, but still).

9:25pm:
Speaking to his supporters in Irving, Texas, Mike Huckabee drops out and announces his support for McCain and need to unite the party.
Meanwhile, 8% of precincts are reporting in Rhode Island and show Clinton up 53% to 46%. In Ohio, we’re at 6% reporting and Clinton is up 60% to 38% — but the parts of the state that are reporting are where she is expected to do well. And keep in mind that Cleveland, one of Obama’s strongholds, will report late since polls were opened much longer.

9pm: McCain becomes the GOP nominee
. Polls have closed everywhere now, and Rhode Island and Texas are called for McCain which CNN calculates with grant fanfare gets the Republican above the 1,195 delegate mark.
Among Democrats, RI and TX are both too close to call. Exit polls in RI show a very close race, with Clinton about 3% up once again. The Texas exit polls have Clinton up extremely narrowly as well (though early polls are not included here, I believe). The exit polls also show that there is a big educational gap (with Clinton winning ahead among those without a college degree, Obama among those who do) but there is almost no income gap here, with all income groups (except those earning less than $15,000 and more than $200,000) splitting their vote. There is, however, a clear gender gap in TX, +13% among men for Obama and +17% among women for Clinton.

8:55pm:
A new batch of early votes have been counted in Texas and the margin is now 85,000 votes between the two candidates so a slight improvement for Clinton which puts her down 54-45 with almost 1 million votes counted (which means we probably now have about a quarter of the votes reporting).
Another interesting point: Unless Obama crosses the 65% mark in Vermont (which he is far from with 37% of the votes in), the delegate split will be 9-6, so a 3 delegate advantage.

8:45pm:
The Texas caucuses are underway, and they look to be as chaotic as we expected. The Clinton campaign is charging that the caucuses are marked by irregularities and that Obama supporters have taken control of some caucuses locations. In Ohio, the polls in Cleveland were kept open for by a judge because of high turnout.
Ohio is still not reporting its numbers, while Obama is up 46% to 36% with more than 800,000 votes counted (almost all are early votes, but this will represents about 20% of the final turnout, so Clinton has digged herself in a hole).

8:20pm:
Ohio polls have been closed for 50 minutes now but almost no votes are being released. An interesting exit poll result is that Clinton got a much higher percentage of the white vote than usual — 61%.
The Texas primary is shaping up, though, with Obama blowing out Clinton among early voters. 1% of precincts only is reporting, but early voters could amount to between 30% and 50% of voters and those numbers are coming in fast: Obama is up 58% to 41% right now, 430,000 votes versus 300,000 votes! This could a huge result going forward, as it is going to be very difficult for Clinton to overcome this huge a margin in early voting. (Wolf Blitzer does not appear to understand that the 700,000 votes already reporting are not coming from that 1% of precincts but are early votes, since he announced after reading those numbers that we should get some numbers results from early voting soon.)

8pm:
Most polls have now closed in Texas as well (except in the El Paso region) and it looks like the networks are going to wait to release exit polls, but the first votes are already being reported (it’s still very early). The results in Ohio are also coming in very slowly. We are already at 13% in Vermont, and the numbers are 58-40 for Obama. (Can someone explain why Wolf Blitzer insists that “we don’t know where these votes are coming from” when CNN’s results page has a very clear map of which counties are reporting what?)

7:35pm:
Ohio polls have now closed. McCain is called the winner, and the Democratic race is too close to call. The CNN exit polls right now are showing Clinton up by a 3-4% margin — way smaller than what she needs. If these numb
ers are confirmed, Clinton will not get the margin she needs in Ohio. The income and education gaps are back in full force here, with Clinton much stronger among lower-income and less-educated voters.

7:10pm:
The polls have closed in Vermont, and the state was quickly called for Barack Obama and John McCain. Exit polls show a big Obama victory (probably above 60%), but VT only awards 15 delegates so the split will likely be somewhere around 10-5 (which could end up being meaningful).

6:45pm:
More exit polls hint, still from the second wave of exit polls, i.e. these numbers could still shift dramatically, particularly the internals, so don’t rely on them. They have Clinton winning Texas women 54%to 46% (which is good for her, but definitely underwhelming). But some very good news for Clinton supporters is her huge lead among late-deciders, 66% to 34% (unclear whether late-decider means decided today or over the past 3 days, but it confirms that Clinton has had some momentum over the past few days, as the last polls were suggesting). In Ohio, Clinton is up for now among union voters (56-43) as well as among those who say that NAFTA has taken jobs away (51-48). Meanwhile, MyDD posts some overall numbers that have Obama up 2% in OH and TX (essentially an exit-poll tie, and it is unclear what those numbers rely on).
I will post updated and refined numbers as they become available through the night.

6pm
: As always, take all exit polls before polls close with a huge grain of salt. These hints come from second wave of exit polls, and they were wildly off in many states on February 5th. That said, the first leaked exit polls look to be showing close races in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, and a clear Obama lead in Vermont (I have not seen exact numbers, which is why I am going to leave it at “close races”). The AP is also reporting that about 1/5 Ohio voters are independents and 1/4 in Texas, two indications that are pretty much in line with what we expected (ARG modeled 23% and 27% respectively in its latest poll release).

Also, CNN is reporting that Texas Latinos are going for Clinton 64-35 and blacks going for Obama 84-16. This is roughly what we expected — though if confirmed this means that Clinton has made no inroads among blacks and Obama among Hispanics — which means that the determining factor will be the relative turnout of blacks and Hispanics. And the Washington Post offers us a hint of that: “In Texas, Hispanic turnout was up from 2004, when Latino voters made up about a quarter of all Democratic primary voters.” That would obviously be a significant boost to Clinton’s chances.

Original post: Yet another results thread — perhaps the last one of the 2008 primary season, perhaps the prelude to many more to come. And it could be a long night, since we will have to wait all the way to the end of the Texas caucuses to get an idea of the shape of the race. The first polls close at 7pm in Vermont, followed at 7:30pm by Ohio. Most of Texas will close at 8pm ET, though the El Paso region will be voting until 9pm. (If past election nights are any indication, votes should start coming in at 8pm and not wait until 9pm). Rhode Island closes late, at 9pm as well.

Since there are no exit polls for now, read these guidelines of what to watch for tonight.


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When a win isn’t necessarily a win

Today’s results could be the most difficult to handicap, and this in a context that has seen 11 Election Days already. Indeed, we are in the very difficult position of asking what it would mean for either candidate to get a “win” out of tonight.

There are two separate questions at play here: (1) What will it take for Clinton to fundamentally alter the state of the race and get herself back in the running? (2) What will it take for Clinton to survive today’s votes, i.e. have a rationale to go on with her campaign tomorrow morning? The second question would seem to be dependent on the first, but the Clinton campaign has been giving enough clues as of late that there is a pretty significant gap between the two.

The answer to the first question is rather simple: To have a chance at being the nominee, Clinton needs to triumph in an Ohio by double-digits and win Texas comfortably enough to get a delegate lead (and probably win Rhode Island as well). A tall order for the New York Senator — albeit one that the last batch of polls suggest she could pull off.

But if Clinton wins, say, Ohio by 6% and Texas by 4%, these victories will be insufficient to boost her in the delegate chase and would make Obama even more favored to win the nomination — but they would be good enough that Clinton would probably not drop out.

This would truly be a paradoxical situation: The very same results would both confirm that Clinton has very little chance of becoming the nominee and change the momentum in her favor. This would be an almost unprecedented situation in the history of modern primaries, as a candidate who is increasingly unlikely to get the nomination would press ahead with new-found determination.

This possibility would create a huge headache for Obama: The next opportunity to get Clinton out of the race won’t come until April 22nd, and that would mean that Obama would have to fight the primary fight — and face a lot of new scrutiny since the media appears to have decided to turn the spotlight on him — in a race that he would have essentially won.

Of course, we aren’t there yet. While the in-between scenario (Clinton survives but does not change the fundamentals of the race) is the most likely, I already pointed out that Clinton could potentially make herself relevant if she gets a huge night tonight. And then there is the very plausible scenario that Obama gets to eliminate Clinton tonight: He has a huge opportunity.

What would constitute a knock-out victory by Obama? If he wins Ohio or the popular vote in Texas, it would be very difficult for Clinton to stay in the race and even if she does Obama would have beaten her at her own games, in the states Clinton herself had pointed to as her firewall.

Can Obama hope that Clinton drops out if the decision is more muddled (small wins by the NY Senator in OH and TX)? The campaign knows that its now or… in 6 weeks, and they are pressuring Clinton very heavily to drop out in such a scenario. It looks like they have prepared a major offensive in the coming days: Tom Brokaw is now reporting that Obama has 50 superdelegates ready to endorse him and that have yet to come forward, and many observer are now pointing out that the Obama campaign has still not released its February fundraising figure that was supposed to be so overwhelming. TNR’s Mike Crowley is suggesting that they will release all this information in the coming days to force Clinton out of the race.

And this is where things get really complicated: It’s going to be very difficult to figure out just how muddied the results are because of… the Texas delegate allocation rules which make it a huge possibility that Obama would get more delegate out of the state than Clinton even he loses by less than 5-6%. So if Clinton gets a 5% popular vote win but Obama gets the delegate lead, both campaigns will claim to have won Texas… Clinton would have a more logical claim to victory (as she did in Nevada), but considering that her challenge today is to cut Obama’s delegate lead it will be difficult to cover that as anything than a loss.

And I am not even accounting here for the Texas caucuses that will start immediately after primary polls close. 67 delegate are at stake here… That’s almost as much as the entire state of Minnesota, where Obama had triumphed in the caucuses and gotten a 24 delegate lead. Even if Clinton wins the primary vote by a few points, Obama could very well crush her in the caucuses and get a delegate lead big enough to undermine whatever Clinton gets in the Texas primary and in Ohio. Sounds unlikely? There was a 30% gap in Washington between the primary results and the caucus results… If even a third of that happens in Texas, it could become Exhibit A of the Clinton campaign’s charge against caucuses, and it’s stuff like that they need to provide cover to superdelegates.

Complicated? Certainly. What is most terrifying that the most confusing scenarios outlined here (Clinton gets a narrow TX primary win, loses caucuses, loses delegates) are not the most far-fetched at all, but are more likely than simpler routs


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Assessing Clinton’s chances, with delegate calculations and the latest polls

Zogby is back to releasing tracking polls — something they had not done since the run-up to Super Tuesday. And they bring mixed news for Hillary Clinton who now leads in neither Ohio nor Texas:

  • In Ohio, Clinton and Obama are now tied at 45%. Among the GOP, despite an 8% in Huckabee’s favor, McCain is still ahead by… 33%!
  • In Texas, Clinton has cut Obama’s lead by 4% and now “only” trails by 2%, 45% to 43%. Zogby adds that Clinton led Obama by double-digits in the Friday numbers alone, and we will know in the coming days if that is an outlier or the beginning of a trend.
  • The BELO tracking poll out this morning confirms that there might be the slightest of trends in Clinton’ s favor who takes back the lead, albeit by a small 46% to 45%.
  • Finally, we got a rare poll from Rhode Island showing Clinton up 49% to 40%, thanks to a massive 32% lead among women — for a 50% gender gap!

I have been reminding you for a few days now that the important metric has never been whether Clinton can win Ohio and Texas but whether she can win them big and get the kind of delegate lead she need to cut into Obama’s advantage. When the question becomes whether she is going to win Ohio and Texas at all, it becomes hard to imagine how she will storm back to significant victories.

To illustrate this point and how crucial big wins are for Clinton, let’s turn to some delegate calculations. Forbes has a very useful delegate calculator online that allows you to project the delegate attributions of the upcoming states by predicting the percentages of both candidates. Marc Ambinder conducted the same exercise yesterday and discovered just how dire Clinton’s situation is, definitely take a look at his calculations as well, but here is my take on this:

The Campaign Diaries pledged delegate count right now stands at 1195.5 versus 1048, approximately a 150 delegate gap. Now, let’s leave out all the upcoming states that Obama is very strongly favored to win: Vermont, Wyoming, South Dakota, Oregon, Montana and Mississippi. I am not even including North Carolina, Kentucky (which holds caucuses) and Indiana (where a recent poll had Obama way ahead) for the sake of making an argument (I grant that there is an argument to be made for Oregon staying competitive, since Obama only won the Washington primaries by 3%).

That leaves us with Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, North Carolina, Indiana and Kentucky. It would take Clinton winning every single one of these contests with 58% to get a 150 pledged delegate lead out of them and barely catch up with Obama. If we take don’t count North Carolina and Kentucky, that percentage rises to 62%.

And then we would still have to throw in Obama’s victories in places like Mississippi and Vermont in the calculation and the fact that Texas also holds caucuses. Clinton’s one hope is Puerto Rico, where there is a possibility of delegates being attributed winner take all which would give her a huge 55 delegate lead out of that contest, which could definitely help her make up some of the difference.

Now if Clinton managed to gather enough momentum to start winning these states with 55%, she would not close the delegate gap entirely but she would get very close and she would suddenly have momentum and all the buzz, which could push some superdelegates in her corner. Also, if Clinton managed to get fairly close she would then make a renewed argument for sitting Florida and Michigan. And while she would not necessarily succeed (after all, if she doesn’t have the votes to become the nominee it is unlikely she can control the committee that will decide on sitting FL and MI), it could provide cover to superdelegates who want to vote for Hillary.

But these numbers point to how difficult it will be for her to either get a pledged delegate back or even get that close to Obama, whose February sweep really did wonders.


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Clinton stays afloat in March 4th polls

Four new polls this morning from three states voting on March 4th show Clinton can still entertain hope of surviving March 4th:

  • Quinnipiac polled Ohio and found Clinton ahead 51% to 40%, on the strength of a 17% lead among women. Quinnipiac’s previous poll had Clinton up 21%, so her lead has been cut in half in a week — but it is still looking solid.
  • The University of Cincinnati poll has Clinton up as well in Ohio, 47% to 39%.
  • In Rhode Island, Rasmussen shows Clinton ahead 53% to 38%. In what looks like an outlier internal, she leads by more among men than women.
  • Meanwhile, Obama crushes her among in Vermont, 57% to 33%.

The ARG polls of Rhode Island and Vermont posted almost exactly the same numbers: A healthy Clinton lead in the former and an Obama rout in the latter. In fact, it is remarkable how consistent March 4th polls have been, especially compared to the Super Tuesday surveys which were all over the place.

The big prize among these three states, of course, is Ohio, where Clinton absolutely has to win. In fact, the early conventional wisdom that Ohio would be the true swing March 4th swing state has been reversed with Clinton looking to be in much more trouble down in Texas. (If Clinton keeps her lead in those two states, you can credit SNL’s Tina Fey and her Saturday call for Ohio and Texas to “come on board.”) But in Ohio at least, she still looks strong. Obama’s catching up by 10% in the Quinnipiac poll mostly comes from college-educated voters (a 30% swing) with Clinton staying strong in other constituencies — and unless Obama makes major inroads there as well (as he did in Wisconsin and Virginia), Clinton will stay on top in the Buckeye state. Another internal numbers that is holding consistently in Ohio polls: Clinton is typically viewed more favorably than Obama is among primary voters (76% to 64% in the Quinnipiac survey), and that is not something we have seen in many other states.

There is no new poll from Texas, which is emerging as the key state to watch for and that could determine Clinton’s post March 4th state. Rasmussen advertises a new Texas poll they will release later today, however, so we should get some new numbers from the Lone Star State soon.


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The Dem race could drag on, and why that is not necessarily bad for the party

With most factors now indicating that Obama should be his party’s nominee, the conventional wisdom (including my debate analysis from last night) seems to be hinting that the race will be quickly resolved. After all, even March 4th victories by Hillary Clinton are unlikely to get her enough delegates to make the primary that competitive again (especially given the Texas allocation rules).

But this does not mean that the race is about to be over, so let this be a warning to those who are expecting a quick resolution. If Hillary loses Texas and/or Ohio, it would make little sense for her to stay in the race and the primary contest could very well come to an end. But if she wins both — as the polls still suggest she will — she would be very unlikely to drop out and will instead press forward.

Now, the following race is Mississippi (on the 11th), certainly Obama’s to lose. We then have a 6 weeks long break to April 22nd and Pennsylvania. In other words, if Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas in 10 days (in no way a certainty, but definitely possible), the Obama-Clinton showdown is unlikely to find any resolution before… April 22nd and a long grueling Pennsylvania campaign, with many more debates to prepare for.

Would this a good or bad thing for the eventual Democratic nominee? On the one hand, it would delay by a few weeks the Democratic nominee’s setting his sight on McCain. And with the GOP having time to prepare for the general election, this could quickly become a problem for Dems. This could become explosive if the two Democrats open fire on each other, providing sound bites McCain would be happy to exploit in the fall.

But none of this is very convincing at this point. The Feb. 6th nightmare scenario — that Clinton and Obama stay neck-and-neck through February and all the way to June, setting up a confrontational convention — now looks very unlikely. Obama swept the February contests, as expected, but he did much more than hold serve. He trounced Hillary repeatedly opening a big pledged delegate lead that Clinton will have a very hard time closing (NBC’s estimates that she would have to win more than 60% of delegates in the states that look good for her once we account for Obama wins in places like MS and NC, and Clinton barely even got that kind of margin in New York).

Even if the campaign drags on, there will be a clear front-runner. Clinton can hope to somewhat stabilize things down the line, but that cannot happen until PA at the earliest (unless she suddenly makes a stunning comeback and trounces Obama in TX and OH… but how likely does that look at this point?). And more importantly, this makes a brokered chaotic convention highly unlikely. The superdelegates are now quickly rallying behind Obama, and a scenario under which he keeps a pledged delegate lead of the sort he has now and then has to worry about losing the nomination should be entirely excluded. As I explained last week, the superdelegate paranoia is an entirely irrational reaction to a situation that does not look at all out of control.

Another factor to keep in mind is that the campaign does not appear to be going negative at all, which is perhaps the most stunning development of the 2008 primaries. Sure, Clinton accused Obama of plagiarism; and sure, Obama used Harry and Louise imagery in his mailers. But those hardly count as hardball by the standards of modern campaigns, and Clinton’s choice to disarm at yesterday’s debate, coupled with her obvious discomfort when delivering attack lines, is the clear indication that she does not intend to follow the advice of those in her campaign (like Mark Penn) who want her to go after Obama with everything she has. Now, this might chance if things look closer after March 4th, if Clinton, for instance, gets victories that are more comfortable than expected. But the most likely scenario at this point is that she keeps herself alive and presses on, with a dynamic that resembles where we are now.

In this case, how is it bad for the campaign to go on? (1) The Democrats will continue monopolizing attention and since they are staying mostly positive that can only benefit them and make it increasingly harder for McCain to stay in the news (after all, the media will soon want to cover something else than the campaign).

(2) This is Ohio and Pennsylvania we are talking about, two of the three most important swing states of the general election. This is where Dems will be monopolizing the most attention. How is it bad for Hillary and Obama to monopolize local news and organize in the state for weeks on end (particularly in PA)? This organization would be very useful for the fall, as would be the coverage the two candidates would get. Barack Obama certainly needs to raise his profile and be introduced to voters.

In fact, Obama should perhaps prefer Clinton winning tight races in OH and TX (keeping her alive without giving her that much momentum) to winning himself! A 6 week long campaign in Pennsylvania could go a long way towards locking that state in the Democratic column come November. Of course, that will not be the case if Clinton goes negative but she is showing no inclinations to do that, as I already noted. In fact, both candidates are getting very high approval ratings among Democrats, indicating that voters are satisfied with both of them, even after a campaign (remember the Feb. 5th exit polls that most Dems would be happy with either of the candidates emerging as the nominee?).

Of course, we are not there yet, and it is far from certain that Clinton survives March 4th. We got three primary polls today from March 4th states:

  • In Ohio, Rasmussen shows a 48% to 40% Clinton lead, down from 54% to 38% the week before. The high single-digits is where Clinton’s lead seems to be here, confirmed by yesterday’s WaPo/ABC poll. In fact, Texas looks much tighter than Ohio in almost all surveys.
  • ARG provides us with surveys from two little polled contests. In Rhode Island, Clinton is ahead 52% to 40% (their last poll, in Feb. 06, did not even include Obama though it did include Mark Warner, who for a time was heralded as the main alternative to Hillary).
  • In Vermont, Obama crushes Clinton 60% to 34%, including a 72-25 lead among independents.

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Monday polls: Are tomorrow’s contests more suspensful on the GOP side than the Democratic?

Barack Obama and John McCain are expected to post some big victories tomorrow, according to most polls that have been released and to even a quick look of Virginia and Maryland’s demographics. A wave of polls today does very little to dispel the conventional wisdom, though it is interesting that the GOP primary is now emerging as a bit more suspensful. Let’s look at the polls, first from tomorrow’s largest prize of Virginia:

  • SUSA shows Mike Huckabee gaining on McCain, trailing 48% to 37%. That’s a 19% improvement for Huck since 3 days ago — the previous poll was taken immediately after Super Tuesday.
  • In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton appears ready to sink in yet another Southern state, trailing 40% to 38%.
  • ARG has similar numbers, showing Obama up 56% to 38%. Interestingly, the two are within a few points in the 70% of registered Democrats, and Obama is creating this margin solely among independents.
  • Among Republicans, ARG shows McCain up comfortably, 54% to 32%.
  • Finally, a Mason-Dixon poll has Obama leading 53% to 37%. Among Republicans, it’s 55-27 (though this poll was in the field at the same time as the first SUSA survey, the one that had McCain up 30%. So if Huckabee is indeed surging among Virginia conservatives, this poll would not pick it up).

The numbers in Maryland are very much in line with Virginia’s:

  • Among Democrats, Mason-Dixon has Obama leading 53% to 35%, ARG shows 55% to 37% and SUSA has it at 55% to 32%.
  • McCain is up 54% to 23% in Mason-Dixon, 50% to 25% in ARG and 52% to 26% in SUSA.

Clinton does get some good news in a poll from Rhode Island, which votes on the now all important March 4th. She is up 36% to 28% against Obama, and she obviously would love to counter Obama’s February sweep with a March 4th sweep of her own (we are very far from discussing that, obviously). The poll also throws in general election questions, and both Democrats beat John McCain by low double digits in this very blue state.

The reason the GOP primary tomorrow is so important is that it could very well mark the end of Huckabee’s resistance. McCain’s problem appears to be that he is unable to win over conservative voters, and Huckabee won most of the Southern states of Super Tuesday and Louisiana on Saturday. If McCain crushes Huckabee tomorrow night (say by 20% or so) it is hard to see how Huckabee can justify his going forward if he has been trounced so decisively on his own turf (there are many reasons why Virginia is not exaclty Huckabee’s home turf, as the demographics of the state allow McCain to win without relying on the staunchly conservative vote, but Huckabee does at some point have to enlarge his base a bit if he wants to extend this).

On the other hand, if this week-end’s contests have given renewed hope to McCain’s detractors that the front-runner is not necessarily a done deal, Huckabee could make this close by benefiting from a big conservative turnout. Without really threatening McCain’s dominant position, that would be one more embarassing loss for the Arizona Senator that would force him to court the Right even more zealously.

In the Democratic race, the situation is very simple: Hillary Clinton can afford to lose, but she cannot afford to lose by these margins nor give up that many delegates for the 3rd election day in a row. She is starting to fall back rapidly in the delegate count. Her victories have tended to be more limited in size, as even a 10% California victory is not helping her as much as Obama’s 30% wins in Minnesota or Washington (though it appears that Puerto Rico could very well make or break either candidate in June, as the tradition of that contest is to award all 63 delegates at once… That could get them into trouble with the DNC, by the way, so this is another story line to follow).

Meanwhile, USA Today Gallup and the AP have two general election polls out, both showing Obama running narrowly better than Clinton against McCain:

  • USA/Today has Obama leading McCain 50% to 46%, while McCain edges out Clinton 49% to 48%.
  • AP has Obama up McCain 48% to 42%, and Clinton edging him 46% to 45%.

My most recent discussion of electability is here. There are also national primary numbers, though these are really not very useful anymore; for all it’s worth the AP has Clinton up 46-41 (though most media outlets are reporting this wrong with Obama up, the AP is now correcting itself and has Clinton up) and Gallup has Obama leading 47% to 44%. The



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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