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Category Archive for ‘Rankings’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'Rankings' Category


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Senate rankings: Democrats’ declining fortunes has the NRSC dreaming

senatejune09

The Senate landscape bears no resemblance with what it was in June. Retirement surprises, some stunning recruitment coups on the NRSC’s part, the shift in independent voters’ attitude and a growing motivation gap between the two parties’ bases have caused Democratic fortunes to suffer an epic collapse: Does anyone even remember that in the early summer of 2009, Democrats were still confident they would grow their Senate majority, so confident in fact that they talked about leaving legislation like EFCA to the next Congress, when they would assuredly be well above the 60-seat majority?

Eight months have passed, Republicans pulled off a jaw-dropping upset in Massachusetts and we are now discussing the possibility that the GOP might have a shot at picking-up the Senate, which is to say pick-up a net ten seats.

That scenario remains highly improbable: it would require Republicans to put more seats in play and pull off a sweep of the likes we did not witness in 1994, 2006 and 2008. But it goes without saying that the mere fact that this possibility is not laughed off as silly speaks to how likely it has become the GOP scores big gains come November. Republicans were already optimistic before winning Massachusetts, and they have gotten all the more confident since Scott Brown gave them a 41st seat out of one of the country’s bluest states.

In June, only one Democratic seat was rated worse than “lean retention.” Today, that number has reached seven seats, four of which have moved all the way to the GOP column (”likely takeover” or “lean takeover”): North Dakota, Delaware, Arkansas and Nevada. In each of these states but North Dakota, where Byron Dorgan’s retirement is the worst single blow the party got this cycle, Democrats still have a path to victory - Coons could prove a vigorous campaigner who outworks Castle, Democrats might be replace Blanche Lincoln with a more electable candidate, Harry Reid’s opponents might destroy each other in the GOP primary - but Republicans are now undeniably favored to pick-up each of these four states.

In addition, Colorado, Illinois and Pennsylvania have moved to the toss-up column. While it should be said that Democrats have been trailing in the latest polls of all these states, a variety of factors (the possibility Democrats get rid of vulnerable incumbents in primaries in PA and CO, Illinois’s staunchly blue status) mean the contests should remain tight to the end, though the DSCC has had to give up its hope it held last spring that it would easily hold these 3 seats.

Instead, Democrats are now trying to stop the Republican tide from extending further, as the NRSC is now working to put even more Democratic seats in play. Its best success to date has come in Indiana, where former Senator Dan Coats came out of nowhere to announce he would take on Evan Bayh; while Coats comes with a lot of baggage, he does move the state to the “lean retention” column. All eyes are now on the other politicians the GOP is hoping to recruit: Will George Pataki run in New York, Tommy Thompson or Mark Neumann in Wisconsin, Dino Rossi, Dave Reichert or Rob McKenna in Washington? Also, California is tinkering on the brink: Barbara Boxer’s underwhelming numbers should worry Democrats, though we’ll have to wait to see how the GOP primary shakes up before knowing more.

The one state that has moved in the right direction for Democrats is Connecticut, where embattled Senator Chris Dodd’s retirement has moved the race from “toss-up” to “likely retention.” That said, Attorney General Richard Blumental should not take his election for granted.

Democrats’ saving grace might come from a number of GOP-held seats that are still highly vulnerable. The retirement of Republican incumbents in Ohio, Missouri and New Hampshire early in 2009 gave the GOP headaches it’s unlikely to ever get rid of: Democrats have strong candidates in all three states, and given the electorate’s hostility towards Congress I’d certainly argue Lee Fisher, Jennifer Brunner, Robin Carnahan or Paul Hodes’s prospects are better than those of Senators Specter, Bennet, Lincoln or Reid.

While Democratic hopes of upsetting Chuck Grassley and David Vitter have faded, Democrats have kept a very credible shot at three GOP seats: In North Carolina, Senator Richard Burr has been unable to get himself out of trouble and the DSCC is likely to target the state to ensure the NRSC has to play some defense; in Kentucky, Democrats would have rather faced incumbent Jim Bunning but they have strong candidates who are sure to remain competitive in the general election; in Florida, the many millions Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio will spend demolishing each other through the summer could open the door to Kendrick Meek.

As you will see, the size of my write-ups varies quite a bit, which is due to a number of factors. First, the situation in some states is fairly straightforward (think Missouri and North Dakota) while the one in races like Colorado or Florida is fairly confusing. Second, some states’ races have the same basic configuration they did last spring (think Missouri, Ohio) or we have already talked about so much I did not see the need to go in great detail (think Arkansas, Nevada, New York), while others are low-profile or have popped on our radar fairly recently (think Indiana, Colorado, even Arizona).

Also: For those who want to talk about the bizarre news about the Diaz-Balart switcheroo, some conversation has started in the comment section of my previous post, devoted to House races. I learned about the news as I was about to publish this, and I didn’t have the energy to blog on this weird development after working to finish the Senate rankings this morning, not to mention that Jazz has been asking for these rankings for months! A full Diaz-Balart post will come later.

Safe GOP Likely GOP Lean GOP Toss-up Lean Dem Likely Dem Safe Dem
Dem-held DE (open)
ND (open)
AR
NV
CO
IL (open)
PA
IN
CA
CT (open)
NY-B
WA
WI
HI
MD

NY-A
OR
VT
GOP-held AL
AK
AZ
GA
IA
KS (open)
ID
OK
SC
SD
UT
LA
FL (open)
KY (open)
NC
MO (open)
NH (open)
OH (open)

This gets us to the following breakdown:

  • Safe Democratic: 46
  • Safe/Likely Democratic: 51
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Democratic: 52
  • Toss-ups: 6
  • Safe/Likely/Lean Republican: 42
  • Safe/Likely Republican: 37
  • Safe Republican: 34

Likely takeover (2 R, 0 D)

1. North Dakota (open) Last ranking: 18, 22

In arguably the worst news Democrats got this cycle, Senator Byron Dorgan announced he would not seek re-election in 2010. An open seat in a red state in a GOP-friendly cycle is as close to game over as we’ll get, especially since uber-popular Governor John Hoeven wasted no time before jumping in the race. With the best Democrats can hope for is to force him to actually campaign, state Senator Tracy Potter has entered the race and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp could join him; it is important for a Democrat to put up a decent campaign operation, as a Hoeven landslide could endanger Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s standing.

2. Delaware (Open) Last rankings: 14, 9

Attorney General Beau Biden’s decision not to seek the Senate seat that had been kept warm for him - a nepotistic move that backfired - is the biggest blow Democrats received this cycle since it makes longtime Rep. Mike Castle the overwhelming favorite to pick-up the seat. Democrats landed a solid back-up option in Chris Coons, but Coons will have his work cut out for him against the state’s former Governor who has been winning double-digit statewide victories since the 1980s and is more likely than not to do so again in 2010; he led Coons 56% to 27% in the most recent poll. Coons, who represents two-thirds of state voters, hopes his freshness will contrast favorably with the veteran Castle; it also has to be seen whether the aging congressman has what it takes to campaign full time for months or whether he will let himself be outworked.

Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

3. Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln) Last rankings: 22, 11

While Arkansas Democrats have only lost a single Senate race since Reconstruction, numerous polls have shown Blanche Lincoln trailing low-profile Republicans, the type of showing from which an incumbent rarely recovers. This dire assessment was already true before Rep. John Boozman unexpectedly decided to abandon his safe House seat to run for Senate, a move that all but seals Lincoln’s fate. At this point, Democrats have two paths to salvation, neither of which seems likely. The first is that Lincoln chooses to retire, which might give the party a better chance to hold the seat with a less tarnished candidate (Wesley Clark and Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter did not perform substantially better in a recent poll, but they might have more room to grow); the second is that the Republican primary grows divisive and produces a weak nominee, though the odds of such a scenario considerably diminished with Boozman’s candidacy.

4. Nevada (Harry Reid) Last rankings: 8, 13

When a longtime senator trails a real estate developer and a low-profile party dignitary by double-digits, the time has come to cue in the political obituaries. Harry Reid’s poll numbers are disastrous and he can’t hope to benefit from another Democrat’s coattails since his party’s probable gubernatorial nominee is his own son. A Dodd-like switcheroo is unlikely to function since Democrats have no obvious savior: Numerous pollsters tested potential replacements to find they would do no better. Reid’s main hope for survival is the huge bank account he has amassed. Whoever wins the GOP’s underwhelming primary will probably find himself bruised and penniless, giving Reid an opportunity to attack him/her early.

Toss-ups (3 R, 3 D)

5. Colorado (Michael Bennet) Last ranking: 5, 7

While Democrats were hoping newly-appointed Michael Bennet would have the time to introduce himself, his poll numbers remain weak, raising obvious questions as to what might have been had Governor Ritter appointed a more experienced and popular Democrat, e.g. John Hickenlooper or Diane DeGette. Bennet hoped he would benefit from underwhelming GOP recruitment, but the NRSC convinced former Lieut. Gov. Jane Norton to run; while she is in no way a dream candidate (she was only elected by sharing her ticket with Bill Owens and her position as the head of Department of Public Health and Environment cannot have given her that much name recognition), she is a credible challenger voters unhappy with Democrats should have no problem pulling the lever for. Only two pollsters have tested the race since the summer, with Rasmussen repeatedly finding Norton crushing Bennet by double-digits while Research 2000 found the Democrat up within the MoE in early january.

One reason not to consider Bennet’s inability to break out of the 40% range fatal to his chances is that he should have more room to grow than the typical incumbent. Also, Norton and Bennet are both facing competitive primaries. Norton is battling DA Ken Buck and former state Sen. Tom Wiens, though I doubt Bennet could survive against either unless he improves his own standing. Bennet is facing former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who has not gained much traction for now but still has seven months. While the Democratic establishment claims Romanoff’s bid endangers the party, I would argue Democrats might be better off nominating him as he wouldn’t be weighed down by voters’ hostility towards incumbents (the latest poll has him trailing by 7% instead of Bennet’s 14%, a situation comparable to Hickenlooper’s polling far stronger than Ritter was in the Governor’s race); at the very least, the confrontation with Romanoff could help Bennet get used to campaigning and increase his notoriety.

6. Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter) Last rankings: 2, 10

Within days of Arlen Specter’s party switch, it had become clear Democratic leaders had endangered their prospects of holding Pennsylvania’s Senate seat come 2011. In an environment in which the electorate has been hostile to incumbents, Democrats took on the duty of defending an aging senator whose standing is eroding. In a cycle in which Democrats have been worried about low turnout among their base, they are willing to entrust the head of their ticket to a man who was a powerful Republican Senator for decades. And they opened the door to staunchly conservative Pat Toomey spending months positioning himself as a moderate instead of heading into the general election having spent a year campaigning to Specter’s right. Add all of these factors together, and Democrats have little reason to expect Specter can easily overcome the deficit he is facing against Toomey in polls taken in recent months.

While Rep. Joe Sestak typically trails Toomey by as much, he should have more room to grow and he could have an easier time getting Democratic voters to turn out, which makes the May primary between the two men all the more important. For now, Sestak has been unable to gain as much traction as he would have liked, partly because the Democratic establishment is solidly aligned behind the incumbent, but he is within striking distance; much could depend on whether unions follow Democratic leaders and choose to actively help Specter. Even if Sestak defeats Specter, Democrats should obviously expect a tough race. Remember that political junkies like us might know Toomey as the president of Club for Growth, but his name recognition is too low for most voters to have formed a clearly defined image. We are also getting many indications at the gubernatorial and House levels that Pennsylvania is a minefield for Democrats.

7. Missouri (Open) Last rankings: 4, 2

Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is as formidable a candidate as Democrats could dream of while Rep. Roy Blunt comes with one of the worst resume lines: member of the House Republican leadership, which polls show is still the government’s most unpopular group. Yet, Missouri is a red state; in such a tough environment, that more than blunts the advantage Carnahan should enjoy on paper. Democrats already start with a disadvantage so they need to be very competitive among independent voters, which could be tough for Carnahan to pull off. A parallel might be drawn to New Jersey’s 2006 Senate race: Republicans fielded a member of the state’s preeminent political dynasty against a congressman with plenty of baggage but the cycle was too toxic for the former to overcome.

8. New Hampshire (Open) Last rankings: 6, 1

With the NRSC now talking about contesting states like Wisconsin, it’s hard to believe there was a point at which we were wondering whether a credible candidate would emerge to defend NH’s seat. Kelly Ayotte’s decision to run took care of that question and crushed Paul Hodes’s hopes of an easy pick-up. While the deteriorating landscape is sure to have a big impact on all open races, Ayotte is one of the likeliest beneficiaries of a red wave because of the importance of non-affiliated voters in New Hampshire and because Hodes can hardly position himself as an outsider. One potential wild card is the Republican primary: Ovide Lamontagne has been receiving some help from some conservative figures while Bill Binnie has loaned himself more than $1 million. If either prevails or if they gain enough traction to bruise Ayotte, Hodes should head into the general on stronger footing.

9. Ohio (Open) Last rankings: 10, 3

An open race in the country’s most emblematic swing state: This might be the recipe for an explosively divided contest in normal circumstances, but when the electorate has decisively swung towards one party how can the other party buck the national trend? Democrats have no natural edge in Ohio they can hope will resist to the red wave and neither Democratic candidate is formidable enough to overperform her party’s generic performance. Yet, unlike in countless Senate races Republicans will not be able to make this a clear a referendum on Democratic rule since there is no incumbent, which could help Lee Fisher or Jennifer Brunner convince the party’s base to turn out and persuade independents not to desert the party. While both have fallen behind Rob Portman in the polls after leading for most of 2009, surveys show the margin remains very close, which is far more than we can say of some Democratic incumbents’ numbers. It is especially revealing that Fisher and Brunner are performing stronger than Governor Ted Strickland, who was once expected to boost them but is now shaping out to be a weight on the party’s ticket.

10. Illinois (Open) Last rankings: 12, 14

Illinois might be a staunchly blue state at the presidential level, but Republicans are confident a perfect storm of circumstances will allow them to pick-up Barack Obama’s former Senate seat. First, state Democrats are weighed down by the Rod Blagojevich scandal, which involved the former Governor’s attempts to sell this very Senate seat; that Blagojevich’s trial could take place this fall will make it tough for the party to turn the page. Second, Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias faces ethical questions of his own, with his ties to his embattled family bank sure to come up in the general election. Third, Republicans have as solid a candidate as they could have hoped for: Rep. Mark Kirk’s moderate reputation allowed him to survive in his blue-leaning district in the Chicago suburbs, and the GOP hopes his history of winning over left-leaning voters will translate statewide.

Combine these factors with the national environment, with an enthusiastic liberal base and GOP-trending independents, and Democrats have a major Illinois problem. Yet, this is one state in which national Democrats will pull out all the stops to ensure a win; unlike what happened in Massachusetts, neither Giannoulias nor the DSCC will not be taken by surprise, and Illinois remains structurally Democratic enough that the party might still have a slight advantage - unless yet another scandal breaks, of course.

The rest of the rankings - with descriptions of races from Kentucky to Idaho - are available here.


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2008 in review: The states that mattered

2008 is coming to a close, and it was such a crazy year that it is easy to forget some of the storylines that kept us entertained in the first part of the year. In an effort to review the major events of the year, here is a ranking of the 15 states that mattered the most in 2008.

1. North Carolina

The Tar Heel state was the epicenter of the 2008 election, and the state whose results were the most dramatic. First, it played a tremendous role in the Democratic primaries: Obama’s triumph in the May 6th primary effectively ended Hillary Clinton’s run. Later, North Carolina’s presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial races all unexpectedly became toss-ups, along with NC-08.

On the Senate side, the NRSC and DSCC invested millions on behalf of Kay Hagan and Elizabeth Dole. In the presidential race, the Obama campaign lavished attention on the state while McCain’s refused to take the Democratic threat seriously given that Bush had defeated Kerry by double-digits in 2004. By the time the GOP realized it needed to defend North Carolina, it was too late: the state’s 15 electoral votes might not have been decisive, but the millions McCain had to spend in the state and the time Palin wasted crisscrossing the state might have been.

Even if all of these forces had not been enough to earn North Carolina the top spot in this list, the November 4th results dramatically shook up the state’s politics as Democrats - Barack Obama, Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue and Larry Kissell - swept all of the state’s competitive races. This confirmed the changing demographics of North Carolina (and, more generally, of the mid-Atlantic states), and this certainly puts Republicans in a defensive position going forward.

2. Virginia

No state’s swing towards the Democratic Party was as important as Virginia’s. A historically red state, the Old Dominion had changed a lot since it gave George Bush two easy victories and Democrats had (poll-fueled) high hopes for the 2008 cycle after statewide successes in 2005 and 2006. The state’s relatively large size made it a must-win for the GOP: John McCain had virtually no path to an electoral college majority without Virginia’s 13 electoral votes.

This guaranteed a very heated general election campaign: We were treated to endless media coverage of Virginia’s race, countless polls, a heavy focus on the ground game, extensive analysis of the state’s geographical dynamics, lengthy exposes on the importance of Northern Virginia. McCain’s aides were perhaps the only people in the country not to take the Democratic threat seriously until the end of the summer: The GOP’s lateness in investing in the state sealed McCain’s fate.

Obama’s 6% victory confirms the Old Dominion’s metamorphosis, and it was accompanied by other Democratic triumphs: Former Governor Mark Warner easily won the open Senate seat previously held by a Republican, which means that both of the state’s Senate seats are now held by Democrats. And Democrats picked-up three House seats, taking control of the state’s House delegation. In fact, Perriello’s victory in VA-05 was the only true Democratic upset in the entire country - a fact that captures just how much Virginia swung in 2008.

3. Iowa

As 2008 started, all eyes were turned to Iowa, as both parties’ caucuses looked entirely unpredictable. The results set the tone for the rest of the year: Barack Obama’s triumph put him on track to winning the Democratic nomination while Mitt Romney’s stunning defeat left him crippled - opening the door to John McCain’s comeback.

Iowa also boosted Obama in the general election: It quickly emerged as the Bush state most likely to switch to Obama, allowing the Democrat to count on a sure gain of 7 electoral votes and accordingly focus on other red states. This didn’t prevent McCain from incomprehensibly contesting Iowa in the final weeks of 2008: The Republican nominee kept visiting the Hawkeye State and continued to spend on the state airwaves. Thus, not only was Iowa an easy pick-up for Obama, but it wasted the GOP’s time and money.

4. Alaska

Who could possibly have predicted a year ago how central a role Alaska would play in 2008? We had some inkling that Ted Stevens could face a difficult re-election race, but nothing had prepared us for what was to come. First came Barack Obama’s unexpected competitiveness in general election polls, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich’s Senate candidacy and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell’s Club of Growth-backed primary challenge against longtime Rep. Don Young.

Then came the summer, and with it a stunning sequence of events that transformed The Anchorage Daily News as the daily political bible throughout the second half of 2008. Ted Stevens’s indictment threw havoc in the Senate race; the Young-Parnell primary was so close as too be unresolved for weeks; McCain decided to tap Governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate, which led hundreds of journalists to swarm Alaska and every single one of the state’s quirks to be exposed to the rest of the country; Ted Stevens’s expedited trial opened in DC and was marred with repeated prosecutorial errors that threatened to dismiss the entire case; and Stevens was convicted on all seven counts just one week before Election Day!

As if all of that was not enough, November 4th brought its own share of drama: Rep. Young’s survival was undoubtedly the biggest upset of the night, and Sen. Stevens (now a convicted felon) hang on to a 3% lead for ten days after the election before the count of the remaining ballots allowed Begich to clinch a 1% victory. If anything, this entire sequence confirmed just how staunchly Republican a state Alaska remains.

5. Michigan

The Wolverine State long looked like it would be the most important battleground of the 2008 election, and its culturally conservative electorate was supposed to represent Obama’s struggles with blue-collar voters. Instead, Michigan will be remembered as one of the most decisive states of 2008 because of how uncompetitive it became in the fall. (It is easy to forget how vulnerable Michigan looked last spring given Obama’s 16% victory.)

McCain’s truly stunning decision in early October to withdraw from the state was the first clear sign that his campaign was running out of options, and Michigan became a symbol of how quickly blue-collar voters swung to the Democratic column once the financial meltdown replaced cultural concerns with economic ones. The GOP’s complete collapse had dire repercussions in down-the-ballot races, starting with the defeat of two Republican incumbents in MI-07 and MI-09.

And Michigan also played an important role in both parties’ primaries in the first half of 2008. On the GOP side, the state became Mitt Romney’s last stand, and Romney’s victory against runner-up McCain allowed him to go on to die another day. On the Democratic side, primary day itself was insignificant given that only Clinton and Dodd’s names were on the ballot; but the situation became a complete quagmire as the primary season progressed and Clinton demanded Michigan (and Florida)’s delegates. A revote seemed likely for a while and the issue reached a climax at the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting in May.

6. Nevada

If Republicans might afford no longer being competitive in New Mexico (see below), they cannot also let go of Nevada. But the 2008 results suggest that might have already have happened. At the time of George Bush’s 3% victory in 2004, the state had as many registered Republicans as registered Democrats. This year, Democrats have a decisive edge of 100,000 voters, and that was enough to propel Obama to a 12% triumph, an impressive 15% swing from the 2004 results.

In fact, most people forget that picking-up nothing but New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa (the three red states he won the most decisively) would have been enough for Obama to win the White House. Forget Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, then: The Silver State was more decisive than all of them.

Making Nevada even more entertaining in 2008 was the very competitive Democratic caucuses that resulted in a confusing lawsuit about at-large caucus locations, complete chaos during the proceedings, a narrow Clinton victory and Obama’s accusations of fraud. The state also hosted a competitive House race won by Democrats.

7. New Mexico

New Mexico is too small and too Western a state to attract that much media attention, but those who follow politics closely know that the state’s transformation is as dramatic as any. After seeing dramatically tight finishes in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico decisively swung blue this year. Perhaps most importantly, it did so early in the year, providing Obama with a second sure pick-up (after Iowa) and leaving him only five electoral votes away the White House.

In fact, Obama’s victory looked so certain that no one was surprised at his 15% triumph on November 4th - but that’s a stunning 16% swing from the 2004 results. And the state also colored itself blue on other levels: Tom Udall easily picked-up the Senate seat occupied by Republican Pete Domenici and Democrats comfortably conquered GOP-held NM-01 and NM-02, leaving them with full control of the state’s entire congressional delegation!

8. Pennsylvania

To this day, it is difficult to explain why McCain chose the Keystone State as his last stand. All polls showed Obama leading by double-digits, Democrats had posted dramatic registration gains in the four years since John Kerry’s victory in 2004, and Obama had a massive ground game in place throughout the state. Perhaps McCain thought that if one state displayed the Bradley effect, it would be Pennsylvania and its culturally conservative Democrats; perhaps it was just that McCain had to make a last stand somewhere. Whatever the reason, Pennsylvania became the state to follow in the final weeks of the general election, and an avalanche of polls gave us plenty to talk about daily.

And it’s not like we had been ignoring the state before October. The relentless - and somewhat excessive - focus on Pennsylvania was launched in the Democratic primaries: Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama devoted themselves to the state’s April 22nd primary for six long weeks that saw no other contest. These six weeks were marked by bittergate and Jeremiah Wrigth, making the PA primary into a case study of Obama’s appeal among blue-collar voters.

The primary result was not favorable to Obama, and it sparked months of articles in all media outlets analyzing Obama’s chances in the Keystone State. Could he hold on to Clinton voters? Could he capture the blue-collar electorate? Was race losing him votes? How about Biden’s suburbs in Scranton? How about the ever-shifting Philly suburbs? How about Ed Rendell’s big mouth?

Pennsylvania’s importance was magnified by the abnormally large number of vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including Jack Murtha who was added at the last minute after he called his district’s residents “racist.” Democrats triumphed on Election Night, holding on to all their endangered seats (somewhat unexpectedly saving PA-11) while picking-up PA-03.

9. Colorado

The Centennial State proved to be one of the most important in the general election. A traditionally Republican state, Colorado looked like a toss-up from the beginning of the year and both parties (and the press) treated it accordingly. Both campaigns invested significant sums to run ads, articles were written about the state’s demographics, dozens of polls were conducted throughout the summer and fall. Furthermore, Democrats organized their party’s convention in Denver, allowing the media to review the state’s competitiveness for an entire week.

Unlike Ohio and Florida, Colorado had not usurped its status as a battleground state. Barack Obama, who trailed in very few of the state’s polls, looked very well positioned to capture the state’s 9 electoral votes; this means that Colorado looked like the red state most likely to fall to Obama’s column along Iowa and New Mexico - and that would have been enough to give him the presidency! This is why McCain’s stunning late-October decision (reported by CNN’s John King) to scale back his Colorado campaign was tantamount to his conceding the entire election.

Colorado thus sealed the GOP’s defeat in the presidential election, but the importance of the state’s blue turn is magnified by the results of the congressional elections. Colorado hosted a competitive Senate race in which a large number of independent groups spent significant amounts; Mark Udall picked-up the seat for Democrats. And socially conservative Rep. Marylin Musgrave’s double-digit defeat in CO-04 was one of the most emblematic House results of November 4th.

10. Ohio

Ohio’s influence on the presidential election has been overrated. In 2004, John Kerry did tie his presidential prospects to Ohio, but that was certainly not the case with the Obama campaign. Indeed, it was hard to see a scenario under which Obama lost Nevada, Virginia and Colorado (all states that would have been enough to clinch the White House) but somehow prevailed in Ohio. Yet, the Buckeye State was regularly portrayed as Ground Zero of the election, and received a corresponding amount of media attention.

That said, Obama’s 4% victory was highly symbolic of his progress among the very same voters that massively rejected him during the Democratic primaries. Ohio’s March 4th contest had become Hillary Clinton’s last stand, and it looked like Obama might manage to pull an upset; but Ohio voters rallied behind Hillary, ushered in the narrative of Obama’s troubles among blue-collar voters and prolonged the Democratic primaries by three months!

Ohio was also a very important state at the congressional level. Democrats picked-up three of the four House races they were contesting, an impressive result that left them in control of the state’s House delegation. In particular, Democrats defeated Rep. Chabot, a perennial target whose defeat can be attributed to the rise in African-American turnout.

11. New Hampshire

The Granite State played an decisive role in both parties’ primaries. McCain’s comeback victory in the January 8th primary was not enough for him to clinch the Republican nomination, but it transformed him overnight from an unlikely contender into the man to beat. Whether this represented a good development for the GOP can be debated for the years to come. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton’s victory was not unexpected given the polls of the preceding six months, but it proved to be the biggest shocker of 2008 by the standards of Obama’s post-Iowa boom - enough of a shocker to throw the Democratic primaries into a five month-long overtime.

New Hampshire continued to be a topic of conversation as the year progressed, as it hosted competitive presidential, senatorial and House elections. In fact, New Hampshire long looked like a Kerry state that could fall in McCain’s column, and polls found a toss-up until the end of September, when Obama put the state away.  In the Senate race, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen and incumbent Senator John Sununu waged a heated rematch of their 2002 battle; while Shaheen led from the first through the last day, the GOP was convinced Sununu could pull a comeback. And in NH-01, Rep. Shea-Porter long looked like one of the most endangered Democratic incumbents; she narrowly survived on November 4th.

12. California

As usual, no one paid attention to California’s presidential election, but the Golden State got two sizable consolation prizes. On February 5th, it hosted the most important Super Tuesday primary battles for both parties: John McCain’s easy victory was the last straw that pushed Mitt Romney out of the race; and Hillary Clinton’s sizable win allowed her to survive an otherwise-disappointing day. Later , Proposition 8 was placed on California’s ballot, guaranteeing that voters witness a heated political battle. The state’s airwaves were inundated by vicious ads attacking gay rights, and liberal groups were too slow at taking the threat seriously. On November 4th, many were following Prop 8 just as closely as the presidential election - and its passage put a dent in an otherwise great night for Democratic activists.

13. Minnesota

Minnesota played an important role in the general election alone, but not a particularly crucial one. Along with states like Washington, Oregon and Wisconsin, Minnesota was one of those blue states that Republicans were hoping to contest but that got out of reach after Obama’s September surge. That said, Republicans were always surprisingly hopeful about Minnesota. Their decision to organize the GOP convention in the Twin Cities and Governor Pawlenty’s presence at the top of McCain’s veepstakes ensured that the state remained in presidential new.

And there were plenty of other storylines that made Minnesota an ultra-political state this year. It all started with the state’s February 5th caucus: No one paid attention to it before the results were announced, but it is through his huge victories in caucus states like MN, CO and WA that Obama opened an insurmountable delegate lead. Later, the state hosted two competitive House seats, including Michelle Bachmann’s re-election race in MN-06 that became one of the most high-profiles in the country after the incumbent’s rant against Obama’s “anti-American” activities.

And do I even need to mention the Senate race between Al Franken and Norm Coleman? The contest was one of the year’s most entertaining even before a virtual Election Night tie launched a still-unresolved recount process. Coleman and Franken aired what were arguably the most vicious attack ads of the cycle - not to mention the lawsuits that the two camps hurled at each other in the last week of October or the presence of a colorful third-party candidate and Jesse Ventura’s flirtations with a run!

14. New York

The Empire State might be an unconventional choice for a spot in the list of states that mattered given that it was competitive in neither of the primaries nor in the general election. In fact, New York arguably lost influence in 2008 since the dream of an all-New York general election came crashing down with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani’s prospects.

That said, two major storylines kept us entertained. First was the scandal that engulfed Governor Eliot Spitzer last spring. In a matter of days, Spitzer went from potential presidential candidate in 2016 to looking like a political pariah forced to resign because of his foolish hypocrisy and potentially criminal actions. With Spitzer’s departure, David Paterson became the state’s first African-American and the nation’s first legally blind Governor.

The second storyline is the continued agony of the Empire State’s once-dominant Republican Party. In November, the GOP lost the majority in the state Senate for the first time in decades - and with it its last seat of power in state politics; Republicans also lost three House seats. Democrats now control a remarkable 26 of the state’s 29 districts. And no race symbolized the state GOP’s collapse as much as the NY-13, where rising Republican star Vito Fossella was forced to retire after a DUI scandal uncovered his marital infidelities and where a bizarre sequence of events revealed the extent of the GOP’s disarray.

15. Georgia

At the start of the year, few people would have predicted that this Republican-trending state would be a central battleground. But the closer we got to the election, the more eyes turned towards the Peach State. Barack Obama’s fairly stunning early-summer decision to invest resources in Georgia gave him a strong ground game and the state became the case study in the increase in black turnout (especially since the state’s election board updated its early voting statistics daily). This gave Democrats hope that they would do well across the South, and my last presidential ratings moved Georgia to the toss-up column.

The GOP’s under-performance extended to the Senate race. No one rated Senator Saxby Chambliss as endangered for much of the cycle (I ranked his race 17th in July), but the Democratic enthusiasm combined with the economic crisis plunged Chambliss in an unexpectedly difficult re-election race against Democratic nominee Jim Martin. The November 4th saw Chambliss falling just short of the 50% necessary for an immediate victory, throwing the race in a runoff campaign during which Georgia had the country’s undivided attention!

Honorable mentions go to Florida, which all but guaranteed that McCain would be the GOP nominee before crushing his presidential hopes in the fall; Wisconsin, which arguably gave Obama his most important primary victory; Indiana, which hosted one of the most competitive Democratic primaries before emerging as the most stunning of general election battlegrounds; Missouri, which gave Obama a crucial Super Tuesday victory before damaging its reputation as a presidential bellwether in the general election; and Louisiana, which treated us to a last-minute stunner on December 6th.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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