Archive for the 'Pennsylvania' CategoryPage 2 of 20

Jim Gerlach unretires

Published
by
Taniel
on January 9, 2010
in PA-06 and PA-Gov
. 23 Comments

While the number of retiring House Democrats has increased in recent months, the GOP has managed to get rid of one of its only open seat headaches: A day after he dropped out of Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, Rep. Jim Gerlach clarified his plan by announcing he would run for re-election.

As a district that voted for John Kerry by 4% and for Barack Obama by 17%, Gerlach’s PA-06 was one of Democrats’ top opportunities - part of a firewall of potentially easy pick-ups that the DCCC was hoping would help them offset big losses elsewhere. But Gerlach’s move only leaves two obviously competitive GOP-held open seats (DE-AL and IL-10), a stark contrast to Democrats’ 8 vulnerable open seats.

What must be particularly frustrating to the DCCC is Republicans’ good luck. Indeed, while even Dodd, Dorgan and Ritter’s retirements told us something about how much the political environment has shifted over the past year, Gerlach’s reversal has nothing to do with the GOP’s upbeat outlook on 2010 or with Democrats’ declining fortunes; rather, he changed course because he was failing at gaining any traction in the Governor’s race: Facing Attorney General Tom Corbett, Gerlach was trailing in polls, he was unable to fundraising as much as he’d need to fund his campaign and he didn’t even look to have an electability edge. And yet, the NRCC managed to turn his dire situation into yet another positive development for their 2010 chances, which speaks to just how many things have gone perfectly for Republicans’ over the past 8 months.

Thankfully for Democrats, Gerlach’s unretirement does not solve the GOP’s problems. For one, Democrats have targeted this district from the moment the cycle started, and they have two candidates who’ll probably stay in the race. Newspaper publisher Doug Pike and veteran Manan Trvedi might not seem like the most formidable candidates Democrats could have found, but the DCCC seemed satisfied with them. Both have raised substantial sums of money, which should prove useful considering Gerlach has to start from scratch as I doubt he can transfer money from his gubernatorial campaign to his House committee.

And he’d sure need it, because Gerlach is known to be a weak incumbent. He narrowly survived top-tier opposition in 2004 and in 2006; in 2008, Democrats fielded a low-profile candidate with little money and little buzz, but even then Gerlach prevailed by an unexpectedly small margin. Sure, 2010 is no 2008, by which I mean that it should be hard for Democrats to beat any Republican incumbents, but PA-06 leans blue enough that Gerlach’s general election campaign is sure to be highly competitive.

If he even makes it that far: Gerlach announced his retirement mid-July, which means that for the past six months local Republicans have been preparing his succession. The congressman cannot just waltz back in the House race and expect candidates who’ve put in half-a-year’s worth of efforts to simply step aside. They might do so over time, but it will surely take a lot of persuasion from the Republican establishment, which has fully rallied behind Gerlach. For now, state Rep. Curt Schroder and businessman Steve Welch both say they will not get out of the race.

(Welch’s story is particularly amusing: He was first running in the open seat in PA-07, but Republicans officials wanted to push him out once former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan’s entered that race. They convinced him he should move to run in PA-06, where Schroder would be a less formidable primary opponent… but Welch now finds that the race he’s in is no longer an open seat, and he once again finds himself the target of NRCC pressure. Also: Welch had recently loaned his campaign $500,000.)

If Schroder and/or Welch stand firm, it could mean that Gerlach faces the very real threat of losing the Republican primary. The contest is in four months, which gives him plenty of time to prepare but also means his opponents’ head-start could be a factor. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see whether conservative groups intervene to prevent Gerlach’s renomination, since the congressman has somewhat of a moderate profile. Whatever their reputation prior to their run, both Schroder and Welch have been campaigning as conservatives, witness this ode to Doug Hoffman on Schroder’s Facebook page. And the state representative’s latest Facebook message reads:

People want bold new direction and leadership. We need a congressman who will actually FIGHT to reverse the slide into a European style social welfare state. The 6th District deserves a Congressman who actually wants to do the job, not one who sees it as a consolation prize for a failed attempt at becoming Governor.

All of this is only to say that PA-06 remains competitive, not that Gerlach’s move doesn’t improve Republican chances. The GOP would obviously much prefer having the chance to defend an incumbent rather than an open seat in a 17% Obama district. The NRCC cannot be certain that Gerlach’s unretirement will ensure his re-nomination, let alone his re-election, but his re-entry does move a toss-up that was tilting towards Democrats back on the Republican side.

You would think a sitting congressman’s withdrawal would have some impact on the Governor’s race as well, but it is hard to see how the gubernatorial outlook might have changed. As I pointed out above, Gerlach was the heavy underdog, and polls did not suggest he would perform better than Corbett in the general election; his move can’t even be said to help the Attorney General by allowing him to save money for the general election: Not only had Gerlach been raising too little to force Corbett to empty his bank account, but Pennsylvania’s primary is early enough that it leaves plenty of time for campaigns to prepare for November.

As three congressmen mull leaving House, a former member wants to return

Published
by
Taniel
on January 5, 2010
in CA-19, FL-10, FL-17, HI-01, NY-03 and PA-11
. 1 Comment

Two resignations

Neil Abercrombie and Robert Wexler both announced this winter that they would resign in the coming months, the former to run for Governor full-time and the latter to take a job at the Center for Middle East Peace and Economic Cooperation.

On Sunday, Wexler finally made his resignation effective so the House now has 434 members. Since the special election will not be held until April 13th, this means that Democrats will have one less seat in the upcoming health-care vote than they did back in November, when they pushed the bill through on a 219-212 roll call. While some Democrats who voted no are likely to support the final bill, many will not - and they could be joined by progressives angry at the compromises centrists Senators imposed. It’s very highly unlikely this will do anything to derail the bill, but it does mean Nancy Pelosi has slightly less room to maneuver; in particular, it means one less vulnerable Democrat can be allowed to vote ‘no.’

FL-17 is a heavily Democratic seat, so we were expecting a crowded primary. Yet, not only are state Senator Ted Deutch and former Broward County Commissioner Ben Graber the only candidates in the race but the former has snatched so many endorsements that he positioned himself as the clear front-runner with surprising ease. The primary is on February 2nd.

Also this week, Abercrombie tried to create some semblance of order in the bizarre chaos that is surrounding the organization of the HI-01 special election by announcing that he will resign effective February 28th. Hawaii law requires a vacancy to be filled within 70 days, which would mean that the chief election officer would have to call an election some time before May 11th. (A reminder: Hawaii has one-round special elections with no primary, which could give the GOP candidate an opening because there are two Democrats in the race.) But election officials have still not ruled out trying to circumvent the law because of financial problems; they’re also talking about proceeding with a mail-only voting system, but I have trouble believing that such a change in electoral procedures could be implemented over the course of just a few months.

Three potential retirements

While we might still get surprise retirement announcements, there are few congressmen left who have been signaling that they are looking into not running for re-election next year.

One congressman who remained conspicuously silent as the DCCC rounded up longtime Democrats to get them to announce they were running is Rep. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11). That obviously created some retirement buzz around him; after all, this 72-year old is facing tough rematch against Lou Barletta but will also have to get through a viable primary challenge. Yet, the fact that his spokesperson is publicizing the congressman’s new campaign-centric Twitter account suggests that Kanjorski is leaning towards seeking another term. (Note that Pennsylvania’s filing deadline is coming up in February, so Kanjorski would really have to make an announcement right around now if he was retiring.)

While there is room for debate as to which party would be help by a Kanjorski retirement, there is no doubt that it would be a major blow for the GOP if 79 year-old Rep. Bill Young were to not seek re-election in swing FL-10. While we haven’t heard much about Young in recent months, the buzz that he might be looking to call it quits is now picking-up: The St. Petersburg Times cites speculation that he will announce that he is retiring as early as at a luncheon on January 11th.

Finally, Rep. Peter King is aggressively promoting himself as a potential challenger to Kirsten Gillibrand. We’ll talk about the impact he could have on the Senate race if he gets in, but what’s clear is that the NRCC would rather not have to worry about an open seat in NY-03. While on paper the GOP should be slightly favored (Bush and McCain both won it by 5%), New York has been a disaster for Republicans over the past four years - and the streak continued with two 2009 special elections.

One attempt at a comeback

To the horror of environmental groups who targeted him like no other in 2006, former Rep. Richard Pombo’s name was floated in the hours that followed George Radanovich’s retirement announcement. (Pombo used to represent CA-11 rather than CA-19, but such district switches aren’t rare in California.) Less than a week later, the former congressman has officially entered the race, joining a state Senator and a former Club for Growth-protege to set up an explosive GOP primary that could still get more crowded.

While in the House, he rose to a position of power since he served as the chairman of the House Resources Committee from 2002 to 2006. His crusades to ease forest thinning and to rewrite the Endangered Species Act made him environmental groups’ main enemy in Congress, and his 2006 loss against Jerry McNerny was to a great extent due to the millions they poured against him. It looks like these same groups will do all they can to keep him out of the House, even if this time it means providing help to a Republican rather than to a Democrat. Said the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund spokesperson: “Anything to keep Pombo out of Congress. He is simply too much of a threat to meaningful, common sense conservation policy to do otherwise.”

Pombo has also been ensnared in extensive ethical issues, including connections to the Abramoff scandal and shady payments from his campaign PAC to family members, which contributed to his 2006 defeat. In short: If Pombo emerges as the GOP nominee, Democrats could very well have a stronger opening than they expected… provided, of course, they find a candidate of their own, which they haven’t done yet. Now that it looks Republicans might nominate Pombo, will the DCCC pay more attention to recruiting in this district?

Switching parties isn’t a joyful ride after all

Published
by
Taniel
on December 26, 2009
in AL-02, AL-05, ID-01 and PA-10
. 40 Comments

As French Immigration Minister Eric Besson and now-Republican Rep. Parker Griffith can attest to, it’s never fun playing the role of the traitor. Your former friends detest you, your new allies disdain what they see as crass opportunism and resent your jumping over them without putting in the time to display any commitment to their movement, and no one can trust someone who has displayed a complete lack of loyalty. That Griffith reportedly downloaded voter information from the state Democratic Party’s files on the eve of his secret switch only heightens the perfidious nature of his move.

Back in the spring, Arlen Specter discovered it would not be easy to pull off his own transition but he was protected by the White House, which reigned in much of the Democratic attacks that would otherwise have reigned in on the senator; Specter could not avoid a credible primary challenge from Joe Sestak, but in recent months he has been working overtime to portray himself as a zealous liberal, so we shall see what comes out of this race in the first four months of 2010.

Griffith, on the other hand, can hardly expect effective protection: The GOP has no national leader who can convince local Republicans to accept him in their midst. As such, Griffith has faced a deluge of attacks from all quarters ever since he announced he would join the Republican caucus - not just by Democrats and conservative activists, but also by mainstream GOP officials! - so much so that it’s doubtful he improved his re-election chances.

It all started with an all-out Democratic declaration of war, which Griffith must have been expecting. Yet, his finances will find themselves deflated once Griffith returns the DCCC and fellow Democratic lawmakers’ contributions, as he has already agreed to do; he will also have to find himself an entirely new campaign and legislative team, since his consultants and staff are quitting en masse; and his former allies will spare him nothing, whether unearthing old quotes in which he professes his allegiance to Democrats to pointing out that Griffith donated substantial amounts to Howard Dean’s presidential campaign in 2004.

Conservative attacks were also to be expected. “We will not fix the GOP’s problems if we keep allowing people who are not one of us to suddenly switch the letter next to their name and magically become one of us,” wrote Red State. Yet, Griffith is certainly not in Specter’s position - i.e. someone whose lifetime voting record is often diametrically antithetical to his new party. In fact, the speed with which the right signaled it was not willing to accept the Alabaman was surprising given how uniformly conservative his 2009 voting record has been. The Club for Growth, for instance, was reduced to pointing to the amendments to the budget bill as Griffith’s main offense; the only high-profile vote they highlighted was Griffith’s support for the cash-for-clunker bill, which 59 Republicans supported.

Griffith was surely hoping to at least receive a more positive reception from the Republican establishment and from independent outlets, but even that hasn’t been the case: state Treasurer Kay Ivey, who is certainly not known as a movement conservative, wasted no time before blasting Griffith’s move and The Huntsville Times published a brutal editorial denouncing Griffith’s move as sure to harm the district. (Speaking of establishment support: I wonder if Griffith managed to extract a commitment that the NRCC will help him survive the primary. While it would be logical for him to have done so, officials are probably not looking to antagonize conservative activists who are already angry at the national committees’ often heavy-handed involvement in local matters.)

Given these near-unanimously critical reactions, should we be surprised that Griffith’s re-election prospects look just as endangered as they were last week? For one, there is now no doubt that he will face a very tough GOP primary: Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, who had been preparing for months to run a top-tier campaign, has made it clear he will stick to the race. The party’s 2008 nominee Wayne Parker is also considering jumping in. (Note that Griffith cannot hope to clinch a plurality victory as his rivals divide the anti-incumbent vote because Alabama has a two-round primary system, which will force him to get 50% to move on to the general election.)

Second, Democrats might still have a shot at contesting the general election. District voters have never voted for a Republican congressman, so the Democratic nominee can certainly hope to appeal to the electorate’s loyalty to overcome the fact that McCain received 61% of the vote in 2008 (after all, Griffith managed to win an open seat that year, and he certainly was not helped by the top-of-the-ticket coattails considering Obama only got 38%). The most intriguing possibility is that Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, who is currently running for Governor, downgrade his ambitions to the House race; he pointedly refused to rule out the possibility. Another possibility is Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker, who also held the statewide office of Auditor, but local blog Political Parlor deems her entry unlikely because she would have to give up her current office.

Note that from the perspective of the GOP leadership it could not matter less whether Griffith survives the primary: Whoever moves on to the general election, the Republican nominee will not have to face a Democratic incumbent. While Sparks or Parker could make the general election competitive, there is no doubt that the GOP is now clearly favored to hold AL-05 in the 112th Congress.

But from Griffith’s perspective, it obviously matters a great deal. As such, his fate over the past few days will not help Republicans convince other Democrats to cross over. Within a day of the Alabaman’s announcement, the two freshmen representatives who represent the most hostile districts announced they were sticking with Democrats: Rep. Bobby Bright (AL-02) reportedly said as much to DCCC officials, while Rep. Walt Minnick (ID-01) released a statement. Of course, they might very well change their minds in the months ahead, but I would not hold my breath - especially for Minnick: Releasing a statement (as opposed to than privately informing party officials, as Bright did) is the type of incriminating commitment he would not want out there if he was secretly mulling a switch.

Yet, an unexpected Democrat emerged as the most open to becoming a Republican: Rep. Chris Carney, a sophomore who represents a district (PA-10) Bush won by 20% and McCain by 9%. When Politico reported that prominent Republicans were reaching out to Carney and that he had received a phone call from no other than John McCain, the congressman’s office responded: “No further comment at this time.” The next day, however, Carney put a statement announcing that, “I appreciate the Republican Party’s outreach, but I have no plans to change parties.”

There has been a fair amount of skepticism that Carney might ever have seriously considering switching parties. While he is a Blue Dog, he has never tried to position himself as one of the more conservative House Democrats: He voted for the health-care bill, for the stimulus, for the financial regulation bill. In a district with a substantial conservative electorate, how could he possibly have survived a Republican primary with such a record?

Rather, Carney might have been signaling he was considering switching parties to draw attention to the fact that Republicans were courting him - something he is sure to bring up in his general election campaign next fall. In fact, Carney wasted no time touting his independence in light of these latest developments: “I am flattered by the overtures of Sen. McCain and other Republican Party officials and consider their outreach a sure sign that I have worked in a truly bipartisan manner,” he said in the same statement that announced he would stay a Democrat. “I always put my district above political party and have maintained an independent voice.” Given Carney’s voting record, how did the GOP leadership not see this was coming?

Dems maintain themselves in MO and PA’s Senate races, but Jerry Brown shows signs of vulnerability

Published
by
Taniel
on December 18, 2009
in CA-Gov, IL-Gov, MO-Sen, PA-Gov, PA-Sen and SD-Gov
. 0 Comments

After seeing their standing decline -and in many cases collapse - over the spring and over the summer, Democratic candidates have managed to stabilize in recent polls - and in some cases over make small progress (for instance, Alexi Giannoulias seized his very first lead over Mark Kirk in a Rasmussen survey released last week). In Connecticut, Arkansas, Nevada or Colorado, incumbents find themselves tailing so decisively that the mid-2009 slump might have already have sealed their doom; but in many other states, Democrats managed to maintain themselves in a highly competitive position.

We recently saw that one such state is Ohio, perhaps because Democrats are contesting an open seat rather than defending an incumbent. The same situation exists in Missouri: Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is one of the country’s only Democratic candidates to have experienced no dip in her numbers whatsoever. The latest Rasmussen poll finds her leading Rep. Roy Blunt 46% to 44%, a result that is pretty much identical to what all the year’s surveys have found. (Rasmussen’s previous poll had a tie at 46%.)

While this stability can be partly explained by the fact that both candidates are almost universally known, it is striking that Carnahan isn’t affected by Democrats’ deteriorating standing among independents and by predicted turnout disparities. This is a testament not only to the fact that Democratic candidates who are not incumbents are less sensible to the environment (see Lee Fisher’s competitiveness in Ohio), but also to the strength of Carnahan’s last name among the state’s Democrats and swing voters.

Another state in which a poll finds very stable results is Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac’s latest survey has results that are very similar to September’s. A match-up between Pat Toomey and Arlen Specter yields a tie at 44% while Toomey has a 40% to 35% lead over Rep. Joe Sestak; three months ago, Toomey led Specter 43% to 42%. The same can be said about the Democratic primary: If Specter led 44% to 25% in September, he is now ahead 53% to 30%.

Note that all 3 candidates can take some comfort out of these results. First, Toomey is clearly in contention; a decent share of Pennsylvania voters appear willing to back a Republican and the fact he doesn’t have to spend the year campaigning as a hardcore conservative allows him to appeal to independents (most of whom who do not know him from his days as the president of Club for Growth).

Second, Specter has not gone under like many of his Senate colleagues. Receiving 44% is nothing to boast about, especially given that his favorability rating is negative (43-45) but it’s also nothing that would signal he is unelectable next year. Third, Sestak might not be gaining traction for now, but his position is all the more competitive-looking when you consider that his name recognition is very low compared to those of his rivals: Only 29% of respondents have an opinion of him, versus 45% of Toomey and 88% of Specter.

That Sestak’s 5% deficit over Toomey should not worry Democrats is more obvious when we compare the Senate race’s results to those of the Governor’s contest: Quinnipiac finds a similar name recognition difference between Republican front-runner Tom Corbett (49% have an opinion of him) and the top Democratic candidates (27% have an opinion of Dan Ornato and of Jack Wagner). And yet, Corbett has far larger leads than Toomey: 45% to 30% over Ornato, 43% to 33% over Wagner and 46% to 30% over Joe Hoeffel.

In short: Pennsylvania leans blue enough that its voters remain reluctant to send a Republican to the Senate, but they seem to have no such qualms in non-federal contests. This is the second survey this week that suggests the GOP is clearly favored to reclaim the Keystone State’s Governor’s Mansion.

3 other gubernatorial polls: Dems ahead in CA and IL, the GOP in SD

While Pennsylvania is preparing to go against its usual preference in the Governor’s race, polls from three other states find that the partisan distribution respected - even though Jerry Brown has some reason to be concerned in California: PPIC finds that Jerry Brown’s favorability rating is negative - it stands at 35% to 36% - a sign of vulnerability for a man who has been at the highest level of state politics for more than 3 decades. Also worrisome for Democrats is that Brown has an underwhelming 43% to 37% lead against Meg Whitman. Though he does lead Tom Campbell and Steve Poizner by larger margins (46% to 34% and 47% to 31%, respectively), his lead against Whitman should be far bigger based on the state’s staunchly blue status and on his big name recognition advantage.

In Illinois, Rasmussen has both Democrats in the lead, though they remain far under 50%. In fact, Governor Pat Quinn polls at lower levels than his primary challenger, Treasurer Hynes. Quinn leads former party chairman McKenna 41% to 33%, state Senator Dillard 41% to 30% and state Senator Brady 45% to 30%; Hynes is up 43% to 30% against McKenna, 46% to 27% against Brady and 42% to 29% against Dillard. (Surprisingly, Rasmussen did not test former Attorney General Ryan, who is running and is arguably the GOP’s strongest potential nominee.) Quinn also has a weaker favorability rating (52-44) than Hynes (52-30). Consider these discrepancies still more evidence that the electorate is becoming anti-incumbent first, and anti-Democrat only second.

In South Dakota, finally, PPP tested the 5 candidates who are running for the open Governor’s race. All are largely unknown, so we cannot use these results as much else than generic partisan tests. In that regard, the sole Democratic nominee (Scott Heidepriem) does a bit better than I would have expected but the survey leaves no doubt that he faces a very uphill climb to making this race competitive: Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard leads 42% to 39%, state Senator Dave Knudson 39% to 29% and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman 35% to 30%. While Heidepriem only trails Ken Knuppe 32% to 30%, that alone shows how hard it will be for him to overcome his party affiliation since Knuppe is a low-profile rancher whereas he is the state Senate’s Minority Leader.

Poll watch: Rubio ties Crist, Marshall within 5% of Burr, GOP leads 3 key Governor’s races

Published
by
Taniel
on December 16, 2009
in CO-Gov, FL-Sen, NC-Sen and PA-Gov
. 9 Comments

With 9 months to go, Rubio has already tied Crist

As soon as Marco Rubio made it clear he would stick to the Senate race, it was clear that Florida’s Republican primary had the potential to be explosive. But who expected him to gain enough traction to make his race with Charlie Crist a toss-up before we even entered 2010? There is still 9 months to the primary, but the former state Speaker has for the first time tied in the Governor in a public poll: Rasmussen finds the two at 43%.

Until now Rasmussen’s poll numbers have not been excessively positive for Rubio. In August, Crist led by 29% in Quinnipiac and 23% in Rasmussen; in October, Crist led by 15% in Quinnipiac and by 14% in Rasmussen. We have yet to receive a Quinnipiac survey this month, but it shall be very interesting to see whether that pollster will continue finding the same trend as Rasmussen. For now, we can certainly say that there is a lot of evidence that the Governor’s fortunes have collapsed.

Somewhat surprisingly, Crist’s favorability rating among Republicans remains overwhelmingly positive (61% to 38%) but that also means he is far from having hit rock bottom: As conservative groups start pouring in millions to portray him as unprincipled, liberal and/or too friendly to Obama, Crist should see his numbers continue to drop and he’ll have to ensure his campaign isn’t as hapless over the next 9 months as it’s been since the summer. Crist has spent little time engaging Rubio, which has allowed the conservative to build strong popularity among Republicans (64% to 15%); the Governor has plenty of money and institutional support to ensure Rubio’s numbers take a dive.

Two polls find Burr under 50%, vulnerable against Marshall

Richard Burr’s poll numbers have been low ever since the cycle began and two new polls confirm he has a lot of work to do to ensure his re-election. PPP finds his approval rating is plagued by two worrisome signs: For one, it is in negative territory (35/37); second, an unusually large share of voters don’t know him well enough to have an opinion. That also translates to Burr polling at weak levels in match-ups. Against a generic Democrat, he leads 41% to 40% while he is up 42% to 37% against Elaine Marshall. In the Civitas poll, Burr is ahead by a larger margin but he is even further away from the 50% threshold, since he leads 40% to 32%.

While Burr’s numbers are stronger than those many Democratic incumbents are facing, they still point to his being vulnerable - as is any incumbent who is stuck in the low 40s. In fact, given the name recognition differential between Burr and Marshall (69% of respondents don’t have an opinion of her), she has room to grow and her 5% deficit could be smaller still: While only 13% of Republicans undecided, 24% of Democrats and 25% of African-Americans say the same.

Despite the lack of evidence Marshall faces any electability problem, the DSCC is committed to defeating her so let’s look at her rivals’ numbers: PPP finds that Kenneth Lewis trails Burr 43% to 37% while Cunningham is behind 45% to 36%. That’s right, the candidate the DSCC is reportedly mulling spending millions on is polling at a weaker level than two other contenders - and it’s not like this can be explained by a difference in name recognition: 81% of respondents have no opinion of Cunningham, 80% of Lewis and 69% of Marshall.

Sure, the difference between the candidates’ performances is too small to draw overarching conclusions, but let me repeat that the DSCC is considering mulling spending millions helping Cunningham in the Democratic primary. I remain on the lookout for a coherent argument as to why he would be the most formidable general election candidate when he has neither name recognition, nor an obvious fundraising network, nor statewide experience - not to mention that Marshall is in a good position herself and that Cunningham’s policy positions are less of a fit with the Democratic base’s preferences.

GOP leads 3 key gubernatorial races

A week after releasing an avalanche of surveys finding Democrats in trouble in Senate races, Rasmussen finds Republicans ahead in 3 key Governor’s contests; here again, Rasmussen’s numbers might be friendlier to the GOP than the polling average but they do not substantially differ from other numbers we have seen from pollsters like Quinnipiac and PPP:

  • In Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis ensured his hold on the GOP nomination by pushing out John Penry and Tom Tancredo, and he starts with a solid 48% to 40% edge over Governor Bill Ritter. Rasmussen also tested Penry, who trails Ritter 41% to 40%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Attorney General Tom Corbett is by far the best-known candidate, but his name recognition advantage cannot by itself account for his huge leads over the entirety of the crowded Democratic field: He crushes Auditor Jack Wagner 43% to 30%, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48% to 26%, Dan Ornato 44% to 28% and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty 46% to 23%.
  • In Florida, Attorney General Bill McCollum leads CFO Alex Sink 44% to 39%. That’s actually an improvement for the Democrat, who trailed by 11% in Rasmussen’s October survey. That poll now seems like an outlier, since Research 2000 and Quinnipiac recently found McCollum leading by 2% and 4%, respectively. As always, the Republican enjoys higher name recognition which suggests that the race should be a complete toss-up once Sink introduces herself to Democratic voters.

For all of the Democrats’ woes in the first two states, where they are also struggling in the Senate races, the party also received some good news: They have gained an edge in party registration in Colorado for the first time in years, so the gains they posted in the 2006-2008 period not only haven’t reversed themselves but they’ve somewhat surprisingly continued. The challenge for Democrats is now to ensure these voters turn out.

As Dem incumbents tank, open seat candidate Lee Fisher stays afloat

Published
by
Taniel
on December 10, 2009
in OH-Gov, OH-Sen and PA-Sen
. 4 Comments

In search for any polling news they can hang on to, Democrats can take solace in Rasmussen’s poll of the Ohio Senate race. Rob Portman does lead Lee Fisher 38% to 36%, but at a time so many incumbents (Chris Dodd, Blanche Lincoln, Harry Reid) are trailing by widening margins, Ohio’s Lieutenant Governor is at least staying competitive.

Of course, that’s nothing for the DSCC to boast about. Portman trailed by wide margins for much of the year, grabbing his first very lead in late September; as such, these numbers find that shifting national environment is impacting Democrats’ Ohio prospects as much as those of any other state. That’s all the more clear when we consider Portman’s standing against Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner: His 40% to 33% lead is the largest he has posted in any survey this year.

But the point remains that Democratic candidates  are managing to stay afloat in the GOP-held open seats they’re hoping to contest (this also goes for Robin Carnahan in Missouri and for Jack Conway in Kentucky). This certainly suggests that evidence that the electorate’s mood is first and foremost anti-incumbent, and that in some cases Democrats might be better off dealing with open seats than in protecting their senators - this is obviously aimed at Chris Dodd, but also perhaps at Blanche Lincoln as I’m certainly open to the argument that Brian Halter would have an easier time winning the general election.

Rasmussen’s poll of Pennsylvania’s Senate race would seem to dispute that hypothesis: Republican Pat Toomey leads Senator Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by comparable margins, respectively 46-42 and 44-38. That’s all the more a blow to Sestak’s arguments that he’d have an easier time winning the general election given that Rasmussen’s October poll had Sestak in a substantially stronger position than the incumbent (he led by 1%, whereas Specter trailed by 5%). Yet, it goes without saying that such an analysis is deeply flawed.

For a 5-term senator to be stuck at 42% - not to mention to be trailing a lesser-known opponent - if far more problematic than Sestak’s deficit. Specter is universally known, and it will be very tough for him to convince voters who are unwilling to back him that he should have another term. (Corzine’s decisive is the most recent example of the fact that an incumbent rarely climbs out of such low levels of support.) Sestak has more room to grow as few voters have a firm impression of him. That said, there’s no question that PA continues to look like a far better takeover opportunity for the GOP than was anticipated last spring - though I claim some credit in pointing out early that Democrats could come to regret accepting the senator with open arms.

In the Democratic primary, Specter leads Sestak 48% to 35%. While the poll is being covered as great news for the senator because Rasmussen’s October poll had a 46% to 42% margin (reading The Hill’s analysis of Sestak’s “staggering” drop, you would think the bottom has fallen out for the challenger), that remains a very respectable showing for the House member given the name recognition difference and the fact that the campaign has many more months to heat up. That said, Specter has to be reassured that anti-incumbent sentiment is not extending to the Democratic electorate; his favorability rating is very strong among his new party’s base, which renders it difficult for Sestak to get traction.

Yet, the week’s most stunning evidence of Democratic incumbents’ fall from grace is not Specter’s trailing or the 13% deficit Dodd face in a poll released earlier this week (we have gotten used to seeing such results) but rather the collapse of Ted Strickland’s numbers in the gubernatorial half of Rasmussen’s Ohio poll: Despite an approval rating that isn’t dismal (48-50), Strickland trails Republican challenger John Kasich 48% to 39% - a massive margin that confirms sitting Governors will be in a very tough spot next year.

That the poll was released by Rasmussen might lead many to dismiss the results, but there is no denying that Strickland’s situation is worsening. Not only is the trendline negative (in September, Rasmussen released the very first poll finding Kasich ahead - and that was only by 1%), but Quinnipiac confirms that Kasich gaining: Their latest poll, released in early November, had a tie at 40%. Given that Republicans are already slightly favored to pick-up Iowa and Michigan’s governorships, Democrats will have to fight to keep a foothold in the Midwest.

Yet another Democrat unexpectedly retires

Published
by
Taniel
on December 9, 2009
in PA-11 and WA-03
. 11 Comments

For the third time in three weeks, a Democratic congressman who represents a competitive district announced he would retire: Rep. Brian Baird will not seek re-election in 2010, striking yet another blow to the DCCC’s hopes of not giving the GOP any easy pick-up opportunities.

Baird, who is only 53, was on no retirement watch lists. Just last week, the NRCC leaked a memo that listed 17 representatives it sought could be pushed towards retirement if their tranquility was sufficiently perturbed by; Baird was not included among those 17 Democrats. As such, his decision comes as an unexpected gift to Republicans who now have yet another vulnerable seat contest: WA-03 becomes the Democrats’ 6th open seat headache of the cycle, following NH-02, PA-07, LA-03, KS-03 and TN-08.

While that number remains low by historical standards, there is no question that Democrats are starting to play with fire: Not only are open seats are the first to fall in tough environments, but most of the districts I listed above would have been unlikely to be competitive next year had the incumbent ran for re-election. The NRCC is expanding the map without even having to lift a finger - and the more such opportunities it receives the easiest it will be for the party to score big gains next year.

Furthermore, Baird’s decision is arguably the first sign we have gotten that these recent developments might be more than isolated incidents. As of three weeks ago, not a single member of Congress had announced an outright retirement; now, three have - and all of them happen to be Democrats who represents marginal districts. How many more are seriously mulling following suit? Why is the DCCC not succeeding at convincing those members who wouldn’t have to worry about a competitive re-election race to wait it out two more years so that Democrats don’t have to defend their seat in such inhospitable conditions?

The list of Democrats to watch going forward can mostly be found on the NRCC memo I mentioned above: Reps. Ike Skelton, Bart Gordon, Rick Boucher, Alan Mollohan, Marion Berry, Nick Rahall, Mike Ross, John Spratt, Allen Boyd, Vic Snyder, Baron Hill, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Holden, Collin Peterson, Sanford Bishop, Loretta Sanchez and Leonard Boswell. Another to keep an eye on are Rep. Peter DeFazio, who has yet to decide whether he’ll run for Governor.

WA-03 is sure to be competitive: Bush won by 2% in 2000 and in 2004 while Obama prevailed 52% to 46% last year, the district’s PVI is even and Republicans already have a candidate in the race: A mere hour after Baird’s announcement, state Rep. Jaime Herrera jumped in the race to succeed him. She’s likely to face a competitive primary, but that goes to show that Republicans believe in their chances. As for Democrats, Hotline floats the names of two state legislators, perhaps most importantly state Senator Craig Pridemore.

At least, defending WA-03 will not be a nightmare like LA-03. Sure, the DCCC would have rather dealt with this open seat in 2008 or in 2012 (higher turnout would have benefited their party and the environment would have been better) but it’s not like the district is hostile to Democrats. Even in 2000, during which Bush actually contested Washington, he didn’t score more than a 2% victory - nor in 2004, which was a more pro-GOP year; in fact, that Kerry maintained Gore’s level of support despite weakening nationally suggests WA-03 has been trending more Democratic. Furthermore, Baird easily picked-up the seat in a 1998 open race - and he has never won by less than 15% since then.

We’ll also keep an eye on who Democrats nominate, since this might be an opportunity for liberals to move the caucus slightly to the left: Baird was known as a centrist on economic matters. A member of the New Democratic Coalition, he was one of just 8 Democrats from an Obama district to vote against the health-care bill last month -  a move that was particularly frustrating to the leadership given that Baird wasn’t vulnerable. This predates the current Congress: Baird voted for the permanent repeal of the estate tax in 2005, for instance.

House Democrats receive still more bad news

Baird’s retirement is not the only reason for the NRCC to celebrate tonight: Hazleton Mayor (and hardline immigration foe) Lou Barletta announced he would seek a rematch against Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who narrowly defeated him last year after trailing for much of the campaign. Barletta’s decision guarantees that PA-11 will host a highly competitive race next fall, as he is sure to receive heavy support from the NRCC - not to mention enthusiastic support from already motivated conservatives.

Sure, this will be the third confrontation between the two men (Barletta also lost in 2002), which is usually reason to say that the challenger doesn’t have much of a chance. Indeed, it remains to be seen whether Barletta can position himself as a viable contender after the millions the DCCC poured into negative ads attacking him in the past cycles - the type of attack that leaves durable traces and often dooms repeat candidates.

Yet, no one denies Kanjorski is highly vulnerable; last year, he was only saved by Obama’s unexpectedly strong coattails - and even that barely proved sufficient since the congressman significantly underperformed the president. Not only will he not benefit from similar turnout patterns in 2010, but the electorate’s anti-incumbent mood has presumably only weakened his standing. Add to that the credible primary challenge he is facing from Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien, and Kanjorski undoubtedly becomes one of the cycle’s most vulnerable incumbents - so much so that he could very well drop out at this point. That would be one retirement Democrats would most likely welcome.

NRCC receives good news in PA-11, in CO-03 and perhaps in NY-24

Published
by
Taniel
on November 11, 2009
in CO-04, ID-01, NY-24, PA-11 and PA-17
. 1 Comment

You sure can’t accuse Republicans of not being confident heading into 2010. As has been obvious for months, the GOP’s optimist outlook about the likelihood of a red wave is helping the NRCC score recruitment coups - and the past few days have brought the party a number of new candidates.

The most important development is undoubtedly Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta’s reported decision to seek a rematch against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania’s 11th district.

Well-known as a hardline conservative on immigration issues, Barletta challenged Kanjorski last year in what was one of the GOP’s top-pick opportunities of the cycle. As a longtime incumbent representing a blue-leaning district, Kanjorski should never have been in trouble in the first place. But his hold on the district weakened, partly because of ethical controversies and Barletta led in polls throughout the campaign. On Election Night, Pennsylvania was submerged by Barack Obama’s coattails and Kanjorski narrowly survived, winning 52% to 48% in a district that gave Obama 57%.

In 2010, Kanjorski will not benefit from that high a turnout level among his base and there is no reason to think his already low standing with voters will have improved. Barletta’s candidacy thus makes him one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents yet again. Complicating matters is that Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien is running against him in the Democratic primary, which could either push Kanjorski towards retirement or force him to work hard enough to reach out to his base that it could help him in the general election.

On the other hand, Barletta will face major problems of his own, mostly that his reputation is undoubtedly far worse today than it was in early 2008: The DCCC spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative ads last year, hitting Barletta hard on issues like Social Security. That’s the kind of attack that leaves a durable trace, which explains why candidates who’ve lost a highly competitive often fail if they try again, no matter how favorable the political environment (Diane Farrell in 2006, Darcy Burner and Linda Stender in 2008).

Might this be Salazar’s first competitive race since 2004?

Despite winning a red-leaning open seat in 2004, Salazar did not face much trouble winning re-election over the past two cycles. That might change next year, as the GOP has recruited a candidate and is rumored to be working on another.

State Rep. Scott Tipton announced that he would take on the incumbent. The twist: Tipton challenged Salazar in 2006, and lost by a decisive 25%. But that loss came before Tipton won a seat in the state House, which should give him more campaign experience, more institutional support and more credibility with donors and voters. Furthermore, the 2006 environment was about as bad as it could get for Republicans in Colorado. Governor Bill Ritter’s re-election race next year will bear no resemblance to his 16% triumph the open Governor’s race four years ago.

As always, I am not saying that a red wave will submerge safe-seeming incumbents like Salazar (quite the contrary, I’ve argued that predictions of Democratic doom are way overblown), only that Republicans are positioning themselves in such a way that they’ll be able to take advantage if the environment is toxic for Democrats. And they’ll be all the better positioned if they manage to convince state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry to challenge Salazar: Penry just dropped his gubernatorial race, and his district falls in Salazar’s, which has driven up speculation that he could delight the NRCC and get in.

In NY-24, another Republican who looks set on a rematch

If PA-11 was expected to be a close race last year, absolutely no one was paying attention to NY-24: Yet, Election Night brought a stunning nail-bitter that ended in Rep. Michael Arcuri holding on to his seat by a small 4%. His 2008 rival Richard Hanna is now signaling that he’s preparing for a rematch: While he hadn’t made it clear that he was looking at 2010, he issued a press release denouncing Arcuri’s vote in favor of the health care bill.

The reason Republicans would be delighted to have Hanna get back in: He can self-fund his campaign, as he did last year. Since it’s unlikely the NRCC would commit money to this race from the get-go, the GOP needs a wealthy recruit again in 2010. Yet, Hanna shouldn’t expect a repeat of 2008: Arcuri will not be taken by surprise, nor will the DCCC. They will be sure to poll the race this time, and pour in money if they notice the incumbent is in trouble.

ID-01: One Republican in, one Republican out

As long as the GOP manages to get its act together, it should be favored to pick-up ID-01, a heavily conservative district that gave Bush 69% of the vote and McCain 62%. For now, much of the attention has concentrated on Vaughn Ward, a veteran who has never before sought public office but who has attracted the support of figures like Sarah Palin.

Democrats ran many Iraq veterans in the 2006-2008 cycle, and it did not prove a particularly successful experiment - for instance in IL-06. It is always a risk to nominate a political novice, as one can never be sure how he’ll hold up on the trail. Yet, Ward caught a break yesterday when state House Majority Leader Ken Roberts announced that he would drop out of the race. Within 24 hours, another party contender emerged: state Rep. Raul Labrador announced his candidacy.

But none of this matters as much as the man everyone is watching: former Rep. Bill Sali, whose extreme politics and personal antics so antagonized Republican leaders and voters that he lost re-election last year. Numerous reports this week indicate that Sali is actively considering running again in 2010. He would probably need a crowded GOP field to prevail, as I have trouble seeing him reach 50% of the primary vote; his candidacy would also lead to an interesting split within conservative groups, since Palin has already sided with Ward while Sali is a Club for Growth protegee.

One recruitment failure in PA-17

Rep. Tim Holden might represent a red-leaning district but he hasn’t had much trouble winning re-election in recent cycles. This week, speculation started risingthat state Senator David Argall would give local Republicans their first reason to cheer in years, but it did not take long for Argall to deny those rumors, saying he was 99% certain that he would not challenge Holden (not that he would not risk losing his legislative seat if he did). That leaves PA-17 out of reach for the NRCC’s ambitions.

Weekly 2010 update: A surprisingly busy week

Published
by
Taniel
on November 8, 2009
in CT-Gov, FL-Gov, PA-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 2 Comments

In recent months, we had gotten used to a slower pace in statewide recruitment news but this past few saw a flurry of activity. In Arizona Governor Jan Brewer will seek re-election; Roxane Conlin will challenge Iowa’s Chuck Grassley; Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork to run for Governor in Minnesota; Carly Fiorina confirmed that she’ll challenge Barbara Boxer in the California Senate race; and Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff dropped his challenge to Bob Bennet, a big relief for the embattled senator.

In Connecticut, Ned Lamont formed an exploratory committee for the Governor’s race - a move that I for one did not see coming. Not only had Lamont opened the door to seeking a rematch against Joe Lieberman in 2012, but Democrats already have plenty of candidates in the race - starting with Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy. Could Lamont ride the good will he gained among liberal activists for taking on Lieberman in 2006 all the way to his party’s nod?

Another election in which the Democratic primary could unexpectedly get more crowded is Florida’s Governor’s race. CFO Alex Sink was considered the party’s presumptive nominee, but two new names surfaced this week. The first, McGillis Records CEO Darrin E. McGillis, doesn’t look like he has the profile to endanger Sink; but the second could attract contributions and media attention by virtue of his last name: Anthony Shriver, who had already considered running for governor in 2006, is the fourth member of the Kennedy dynasty to consider entering politics this year (after Caroline, Chris and Joe Kennedy).

In Maryland, a Republican candidate is starting to attract endorsements for his gubernatorial race: real estate broker Larry Hogan got the support of lawyer Mike Pappas, who dropped out of the race. This suggest the GOP establishment doesn’t think former Governor Bob Ehrlich will challenge Martin O’Malley, and Hogan could very well end up as the Republican nominee. In a blue state like Maryland, that could guarantee that O’Malley is a rare incumbent governor to coast to re-election.

In Oregon, the Republican field is still unsettled. Not only has Rep. Greg Walden still to make up his mind, but a new candidate could soon join businessman Allen Alley and former state Senator John Lim: Former NBA player Chris Dudley, who for a while played for the Portland Trail Blazers, formed an exploratory committee to seek the GOP nomination. At the very least, that could help Republicans compete with Democrats in terms of media coverage. Also in Oregon, a Republican entered the Senate race; but Dennis Hall will be no match for Senator Ron Wyden.

Finally, state Rep. Sam Rohrer formed an exploratory committee to consider joining Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race. Considered very conservative, Rohrer should have trouble winning a general election in this blue-leaning state. (On the other hand, a Republican ticket led by Toomey and Rohrer would cause massive turnout in the GOP base.) If Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett go at each other too strong, it could leave an opening for Rohrer to clinch victory thanks to conservative mobilization; alternatively, it could help Gerlach win the nomination by dividing up the hard-right vote between Corbett and Rohrer.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Arizona Governor Jan Brewer
Rep. Denny Rehberg (MT-AL)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CA-Sen, GOP Carly Fiorina confirmed run
IA-Sen, Dem attorney Roxane Conlin will run
IL-Sen, Indie Eric Wallace drops out of GOP race, announces as indie
NH-Sen, GOP businessman Andrew Binnie announced run
attorney Ovide Lamontagne announced run
OR-Sen, GOP Dennis Hall is running
UT-Sen, GOP Attorney General Mark Shurtleff dropped out

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CT-Gov, Dem Ned Lamont formed exploratory committe
FL-Gov, Dem McGillis Records CEO Darrin E. McGillis is running
Anthony Shriver added to list
IL-Gov, GOP former Attorney General Jim Ryan is running
MD-Gov, GOP real estate broker Larry Hogan is running
lawyer Mike Pappas dropped out
MN-Gov, Dem Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork
NJ-Gov, GOP Chris Christie elected
OR-Sen, GOP former NBA player Chris Dudley formed exploratory cmtee
state Sen. Frank Morse ruled out run
PA-Sen, GOP state Rep. Sam Rohrer formed exploratory committee
VA-Gov, GOP Bob McDonnell elected
VT-Sen, Dem former state Senator Matt Dunne is running
state Senator Peter Shumlin added to list

Poll watch: Corzine’s rise, gay rights’ strong support and Specter with dismal re-elect

Published
by
Taniel
on October 28, 2009
in Gay marriage, NJ-Gov, OH-Gov, PA-Sen and Uncategorized
. 1 Comment

6 days to go: Corzine grabs significant lead while Deeds sinks

If PPP and Rasmussen had brought some worrisome news to Jon Corzine’s camp yesterday, today’s Quinnipiac poll all but takes cares of their worries. The reputable pollster, which has been polling the contest monthly since August 2008, finds Corzine ahead for the first time since last November - and we’re not talking about a tiny edge: Corzine leads 43% to 38%, outside of the poll’s margin of error. Chris Daggett is at 13%.

If we forget about the recent Suffolk poll’s bizarre results, this is the largest lead Corzine has enjoyed since the first week of January. What is just as important as the margin of his advantage is the level of support he reaches: Corzine is finally able to rise above the 42% ceiling he’s been stuck under for months, with Rasmussen and Quinnipiac now both showing him at 43%. That doesn’t look like much but it should be enough for him to clinch victory as long as Daggett stays in the 12%-14% range.

One caveat: Quinnipiac’s poll was conducted from the 20th to the 26th, so it’s more dated than the two surveys released yesterday (Rasmussen’s was conducted on the 26th only, PPP’s from the 23rd to the 26th). That period corresponds to the intensification of Chris Christie’s attacks against Daggett, and both PPP and Rasmussen found that those attacks were succeeding in hurting the independent and by extension helping the Republican. Quinnipiac has Daggett still more popular than not (21-16), so we shall see what polls say in the coming days.

Meanwhile, Virginia polls are all finding the same result: Bill McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds by double-digits. The SUSA poll that had him up 19% two weeks ago looked like an outlier at first, but it doesn’t look far-fetched anymore. At this point, I’ll do little else than relay the latest numbers. First, Rasmussen has McDonnell up 54% to 41%; the Republican’s favorability rating is so high (62/30) you wouldn’t guess he just went through a heated campaign. Second, Virginia Commonwealth University has McDonnell crushing Deeds, 54% to 36%.

6 days to go, and good news for gay rights in Maine and Washington

Most surveys of Maine’ have found the slightest of edges for the “no” - certainly nothing large enough to reassure gay rights defenders that same-sex marriage will be upheld. (Many California polls had Prop 8 failing in the run-up to the 2008 vote.) But a poll released a few days ago by Pan Atlantic SMS found the largest lead yet for the pro-gay marriage vote: 53% to 42%. That’s a lot of undecided voters for gay marriage opponents to convince, especially given that those who make up their mind at the last minute tend to break towards the “no” in referendum votes.

But that rule of thumb is not that useful for high-profile issues like this one. While it is a cliche to say that an election comes down to turnout, this is one contest in which it is no overstatement: This referendum is the highest-profile vote on Maine’s ballot, so it’s the main issue that will drive voters to the polls. So which group is most motivated by gay marriage will have an outsized importance - and this is one metric on which social conservatives have tended to have an edge.

Another important gay rights vote is occurring in Washington State, which is set to vote on a referendum to establish expanded domestic partnerships (R-71). Two new surveys released this week find the “yes” in the lead: The University of Washington has it easily passing (57% to 38%) while SUSA finds a tighter margin (50% to 43%, with the 40% of respondents who’ve already voted approving partnerships 53% to 42%). Here again, the gay rights-position is favored going into next week’s vote, but referendums are hard enough to poll that this could go both ways.

Note that the White House has ignored gay rights activists’ pleas to take any stance on either states’ votes - let alone an active one.

2010: Worrisome numbers for Specter and Strickland

By now, we are used to seeing Arlen Specter suffering from ugly numbers but it’s hard to overstate how dismal it is for such a longtime incumbent’s re-elect to stand at 23%; 66% of respondents in a new Franklin & Marshall poll say it’s time for something new. His favorability rating (28/46) is barely better.

It’s only because his rival are so little-known (only 26% have an opinion of Toomey, 16% of Sestak) that he manages to still lead direct match-ups. And given the wide name recognition gap, his 33-31 edge over Toomey and his 30-18 lead over Sestak isn’t impressive, especially when you consider that Sestak has closed the gap by 14% since F&M’s prior poll. Sestak does trail Toomey 28% to 20%, but that survey has such a huge number of undecided respondents that it’s not worth discussing much. (Don’t forget that two mid-October polls had Sestak over-performing Specter in the general election.)

Another state, another endangered incumbent: A University of Cincinnati poll finds Ohio Governor Ted Strickland holding on to a 49% to 46% edge against former Rep. John Kasich; among all registered voters, the lead is smaller still (48-47). We haven’t heard that much about this contest, mostly because there hasn’t been much primary or recruitment drama on the side of the challenging party (Kasich signaled he’d get in the race early, and his hold on the nomination hasn’t been contested) but it’s sure to be one of the year’s highest-stake battles.

Senate polls show Specter struggling to stay afloat, find a rare sign of Crist’s vulnerability

Published
by
Taniel
on October 15, 2009
in FL-Sen, IL-Sen and PA-Sen
. 0 Comments

3 polls, and little good news for Arlen Specter

In one of the ugliest polls for Arlen Specter since the longtime senator switched parties, Rasmussen’s latest poll of the Democratic primary finds the Senator’s lead down to just four points over Joe Sestak, 46% to 42%. That’s not quite as catastrophic a situation as Specter faced in the Republican primary against Pat Toomey, but it is a brutal deterioration of Specter’s standing: He led by 19% in June.

Specter’s lead is evaporating before Sestak even starts hammering the incumbent and reminding voters of all the reasons that made Specter a Republican for decades. Once ads start airing showing Specter praising George W. Bush, what will remain of his remaining 4%? Specter will need all the help he can get from Barack Obama - and the $8.7 million he now has in the banks will obviously come handy.

A major caveat: A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey released a few days ago finds Specter with a far larger lead (44% to 16%). Obviously, this is nothing for Sestak to celebrate - but neither does it qualify as good news for Specter: As long as he is well under 50%, the huge name recognition differential that separates him from Sestak doesn’t entitle him to get much comfort out of this 28% lead.

Another reason Specter will not want to draw much attention to that Susquehanna poll is that his numbers among the general electorate are atrocious - just as they are atrocious in two other surveys released over the past few days:

  • In Susquehanna, his re-elect is down to a dismal 31%, and he is locked in a dead heat with Pat Toomey (42% to 41%).
  • A poll by GrassrootsPA, a Republican firm, has Specter leading 46% to 43% - which is less good than Sestak’s 43% to 38% lead.
  • Rasmussen, finally, has Toomey leading 45% to 40% against Specter but trailing 38% to 37% against Sestak.

Rasmussen’s general election poll is actually a slight improvement for Specter over the June poll, which found him trailing Toomey by a bizarre 12%. Even holding that as a clear outlier, the picture that emerges out of these three polls is still one of an unpopular incumbent struggling to make it to the general election and in an undoubtedly vulnerable position if he does make it.

And it is quite remarkable that both GrassrootsPA and Rasmussen find Sestak running better in the general election than Specter. I have long said that Democrats would face a huge enthusiasm deficit if they let Specter move on to the general, and that problem has only been aggravated in recent months: Democrats already face a motivational gap, and they really can’t afford to give their base any more reason to be indifferent.

A rare sign that Crist might be growing vulnerable

Most U.S. congressmen who run for Senate are considered to have a good shot at winning, but Rep. Kendrick Meek finds himself the heavy underdog against Charlie Crist. Meek’s solution: Release an internal poll that finds some promising results. While we might not think of a survey that has Crist leading 47% to 31% as particularly good news for Meek, the Democrat is trying to attract our attention to the finding that Meek leads 45% to 43% among voters who know both candidates.

I don’t have room in this post to list all the ways in which this is a meaningless figure. 1. It’s an internal survey. 2. We are talking about a small subsample (just 25% of respondents know Meek) with a big MoE. 3. This subsample is skewed to the left: Voters who know Meek are most likely to be living in Southern Florida (starting with those who live around his district) and thus be far more Democratic than the electorate at large.

To the extent that the poll finds a comforting thought for Meek, it’s nothing new: The name recognition differential between the two contenders is so large that it obviously impacts the results and Meek can close some of the margin just by introducing himself to voters. But we have long known this would not be enough: Meek is running against a quasi-incumbent who is so popular (an approval rating hovering above 60%) that Democrats have had no opening.

This is why the far more interesting Florida survey released this week is an Insider Advantage poll that finds Crist’s approval rating falling all the way down to 47%, with 41% disapproving.

We’ll have to wait to see whether this survey is an outlier. For now, let’s just say it’s a rare - a first? - sign that the economic crisis that has plunged so many of the country’s governors in a dismal political situation might be catching up with Crist. If this trend is confirmed, we might suddenly have a race on our hands: Just as the Culver, Strickland and Ritter are facing far more competitive contests than expected, Crist might find it hard to stay afloat if voters start blaming him for the state’s economic and fiscal woes.

Let’s not forget that, before even moving on to the general election, Crist will have to survive another grueling legislative session and the no doubt brutal attacks of Marco Rubio and his allies.

Another internal poll, this one in Illinois

Mark Kirk has less to prove than Kendrick Meek to the extent that he is already considered one of the NRSC’s best gets, but we have nonetheless seen very little polling from the Illinois Senate race. Kirk’s campaign sought to remedy that by releasing an internal poll that shows him leading Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias 42% to 35%. The poll also tests the primary, finding it to be uncompetitive with no evidence that GOP voters are rejecting the relatively moderate Kirk.

Sure, this is an internal poll but the few public surveys that have been conducted have also found worrisome results for Democrats (a springtime PPP survey had Giannoulias and Kirk tied). A public poll conducted today might not find Giannoulias trailing outside of the MoE, but the fact that Democrats are in real danger of losing Illinois comes as no surprise. This is one of seven seats the GOP has already made highly competitive, and Democrats are in no position to be complacent about any of them.

Senate polls find GOP in stronger position in NH than KY

Published
by
Taniel
on October 5, 2009
in DE-Sen, KY-Sen, NH-Sen and PA-Sen
. 8 Comments

As we enter October, the Senate landscape looks different than what it was early in 2009. Some of Democrats’ top pick-up opportunities (for instance New Hampshire) now look like trickier operations while Kentucky and Pennsylvania have become big question marks for the defending parties, with two now polls finding closer contests than what conventional wisdom dictates.

NH: Two polls have Ayotte ahead in fluid race

Once upon a time, the Granite State looked like the most vulnerable Senate seat in the country - and it is still listed as such in my four-months old Senate rankings. But there is no doubt that the GOP at the very least got itself in the running when it convinced Attorney General Kelly Ayotte to enter the race. According to two new polls, Ayotte even holds a 7% lead against presumptive Democratic nominee Paul Hodes - a far cry from the race’s outlook back in the spring.

First comes the WMUR/Granite State poll, which has Ayotte ahead of Hodes 40% to 33%; the Democrat does lead Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney 37% to 38%. Second, an American Research Group survey has Ayotte leading by a comparable 41% to 34%.

Both surveys suggest that the state’s political situation is very fluid. ARG finds 49% of independents are undecided; WMUR says that only 6% say they have definitely decide who they will support - a figure that is unrealistically low (many voters are firm partisans) but still illustrates that voters don’t have a firm opinion about either candidate.

That said, the bottom line is that more voters are now choosing the Republican when asked to choose between two candidates they are not entirely familiar with. There is plenty of time for Democrats to turn that around, but it does suggest the environment is more propicitious for the GOP than it was from 2006 onwards. After all, Sununu led in barely any survey in 2008; just this past June, he trailed Hodes by 6% in an ARG survey. As such, Ayotte’s leads are a reassuring sight for the NRSC, which was not so long ago worried it would have to give up this seat.

KY: Conway outperforms Mongiardo, ties Grayson

In what I believe is the first poll to find a clear electability difference between Kentucky’s two Democratic candidates, Rasmussen shows Attorney General Jack Conway in a highly competitive position while Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo struggles. Conway ties GOP frontrunner Tray Greyson at 40% and he leads Rand Paul 42% to 38%; Mongiardo, on the other hand, trails both Republicans outside of the margin of error: 44% to 37% against Grayson, 43% to 38% against Paul.

While Mongiardo has suffered through a rough patch of news lately - audio surfaced of his insulting Governor Steve Beshear, who is paradoxically his Senate campaign’s main endorser - but I doubt that alone can explain the fact that the Lieutenant Governor is the only one of those four candidates with a clearly negative favorability rating: 41/43, as opposed to 49/27 for Conway, 53/20 for Grayson and 51/23 for Paul. We also cannot explain Mongiardo’s unpopularity with his belonging to the executive since Beshear is quite popular (59% to 41%).

Add to Beshear’s strong approval rating the fact that Obama is more popular than we could expect from a state McCain won decisively (47/53) and Conway’s ability to keep the race tied, and Kentucky looks like a very credible opportunity for the DSCC in 2010. It will obviously not be easy, but given that the landscape is getting tougher for Democrats in many states, this is a welcome break.

One other major theme of this poll is Rand Paul’s electability: It will be easy for Paul’s (vocal) supporters to argue that nominating their champion is not a kamikaze operation on the GOP’s part if polls continue to find Paul leading the sitting Lieutenant Governor. Other pollsters have found the Republican primary more competitive than the NRSC would like, so if on top of that polls find no wide electability gap between Grayson and Paul the latter’s prospects could still improve.

PA: Specter’s primary lead shrinks, fall behind in general election

Ever since he switched parties, polls have not been kind to Senator Arlen Specter. The latest survey to find him in trouble in both the April primary and the November general election is Quinnipiac, which has the incumbent’s favorability rating in negative territory: 42/46 - not terrible numbers, but nothing to boast of either, especially considering that those who know Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak overwhelmingly like them.

In the Democratic primary, Specter leads Sestak 44% to 25%. That might seem like a huge lead, but it represents a significant 11% tightening since Quinnipiac’s July survey. Furthermore, the name recognition differential between the two - 88% of respondents have an opinion of Specter, only 29% for Sestak - makes the situation highly worrisome for the incumbent: If he is well below 50% before Sestak even starts introducing himself while reminding voters of his ties to Bush, McCain and conservatism, what will his numbers look like in April?

In the general election, presumptive Republican nominee Pat Toomey has a slight lead over both Democrats: 43% to 42% against Specter, 38% to 35% against Sestak. Here again, the numbers conceal part of the story: That Sestak polls roughly as well as the far better known incumbent is as clear a sign as we have gotten that Specter should not be considered the stronger general election contender - quite the contrary. With Barack Obama’s approval rating at a decent 49% to 42%, Democrats remain favored to win a generic partisan battle in this state, which suggests they’d be better off running Sestak than an unpopular incumbent.

DE: Why Caste’s decision is so eagerly awaited

When the year started, we were looking forward to a half-dozen truly major midterm decisions. Rep. Mike Castle is now one of the only politicians left who have yet to make up their mind but whose decision alone will determine whether a race is competitive. A new Rasmussen poll confirms why that is: While Beau Biden is so popular that it’s hard to see him running in much trouble against anyone but the state’s congressman, Castle leads Biden 47% to 42%.

And thus we go on waiting for this waiting game to end so we can determine whether Delaware will be one of the GOP’s top takeover opportunities or an uneventful Democratic hold.

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As for gubernatorial polls, it looks like tomorrow morning could bring earth-shattering news in New Jersey’s contest. Stay tuned!