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Poll watch: Obama leads big in OH, PA, FL, IN and more; Franken narrowly ahead

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on October 23, 2008

in AL-02, AR-Pres, CA-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IA-Pres, IL-11, IL-Pres, IN-Pres, KS-Pres, KY-Pres, LA-Pres, LA-Sen, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, MI-09, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MT-Pres, OH-15, OH-Pres, PA-12, PA-Pres, Proposition 8, TX-Pres, WA-08, WA-Gov, WA-Pres, WI-Pres and WV-Pres

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The clock is running out, and the only good news for McCain today is a IBD/TIPP poll that has him only down 1%. But just like yesterday’s AP poll, that appears to be an outlier as seven other national polls show Obama firmly in command (not to mention that IBD/TIPP has McCain with more than 70% among 18-24 year-old respondents). In fact, Obama leads by double-digits in four of the day’s survey, and McCain remains stuck in the low 40s (39% to 45%) in all eight - including IBD/TIPP.

State polls are even more decisive, and they are breaking in favor of Obama rather than against him. Today’s line-up of surveys has Obama posting some big margins across the country, and what is significant is that these surveys come from different institutes, some of which have not been particularly friendly to the Democrat before (National Journal/All State or Big10, for instance). Obama leads by double-digits in five polls of Pennsylvania, three polls of Minnesota, two polls of Wisconsin, two polls of Ohio and one poll each of Michigan, Iowa and Indiana.

Obama also leads outside of the margin of error in two Florida surveys (something McCain has not done in a single Florida poll for four weeks) and captures a narrow advantage in Montana in the first poll that (finally) includes Ron Paul’s name. He is within striking distance in Georgia, where early voting turnout confirms that he has a shot at making the race very close.

Needless to say, Obama needs to capture very few of the states I just mentioned. If he wins just one of the Big Three (OH, PA and FL), he will be in a very good position to capture the presidency; two would ensure victory; and even an (at this point unlikely) defeat in all three would certainly not be the end of his ambitions: A sweep of Colorado, Virginia and Nevada (or any of these replaced by Indiana, Missouri or North Carolina) could replace the Keystone State. With all of this in mind, let’s go on to today’s full roundup:

Obama maintains a double-digit lead in the latest NYT/CBS poll. He is ahead 52% to 39% (he led by 14% last week). He leads by 6% among independents. 62% feel “personally connected” to Obama, 47% to McCain; more voters think Obama has the right temperament and personality to be president, and more voters think Obama would handle a crisis well. Palin’s favorability rating remains negative.

Obama keeps his dominant position in the tracking polls. He gains 2% in Zogby (52% to 40%) and 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 45%). The race stays stable in Hotline (48% to 43%), ABC/Washington Post (54% to 43%) and Research 2000 (51% to 41%). Obama slips 1% in Gallup (51% to 45%) and 3% in IBD/TIPP (where he is only up 1%, 45% to 44%). That puts Obama’s lead in the day’s trackings at: 1%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 10%, 11%, 12%.

Ohio: Obama leads by double-digits in two new polls, his biggest leads ever in the state. He leads 52% to 38% in a Quinnipiac survey (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in a Big 10 Battleground poll.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads by double-digits in four new polls. He leads 53% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll (he led by 15% three weeks ago). He leads 53% to 41% in SUSA. (He was ahead by 15% last week and the week before. The sample is more Republican this week.) He leads by 52% to 41% in a Big Ten Battleground poll. He leads 51% to 41% in a National Journal poll. He leads 52% to 42% in Morning Call’s tracking poll.

Florida: Obama leads outside of the MoE in two new surveys. He is ahead 49% to 44% in a new Quinnipiac poll (he led by 8% three weeks ago). He leads 49% to 42% in a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll. Obama seizes a big lead among independents in the latter, which was taken Monday through Wednesday.

Indiana: Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Big10 poll. The race was tied in mid-September.

Minnesota: Obama leads by double-digits in three polls. He leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll (he led by 7% two weeks ago). Obama leads 57% to 38% in a Big10 poll. Obama leads 50% to 40% in a National Journal poll.

Wisconsin: Obama leads by 13% in two new polls, one from Big10 and one from National Journal.

Montana: Obama leads 44% to 40% with 4% going to Ron Paul in a Montana University poll.

Michigan: Obama leads by a stunning 58% to 36% in a Big10 poll.

Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 39% in a Big10 poll.

West Virginia: McCain leads 49% to 44% in an Orion Strategies poll. McCain led by 10% a month ago.

Georgia: McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. McCain led by 9% two weeks ago.

Maine: Obama leads 56% to 35% in a Critical Insight poll.

Safe states: Obama leads 56% to 33% in a new PPIC poll of California. McCain leads 54% to 41% in a new Rasmussen poll of Louisiana. Obama leads 61% to 32% in a Big10 poll of Illinois. McCain leads 53% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. McCain leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. Obama leads 54% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Washington. McCain leads 51% to 36% in a University of Arkansas of Arkansas.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

Proposition 8 is losing 52% to 44% in a PPIC poll. However, the “no” was ahead 55% to 41% five weeks ago.

Minnesota’s Senate race: Democrat Al Franken narrowly leads in two polls. In Rasmussen, he is ahead 41% to 37% with 17% for Barkley. Two weeks ago, Franken led by 6%. In a University of Wisconsin poll, he is ahead 40% to 34% with 15% for Barkley.

In Kentucky’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll.

In Georgia’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss leads 47% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago.

In Louisiana’s Senate race, Democratic Sen. Landrieu leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll. She led by 14% last month.

In Maine’s Senate race, GOP Sen. Collins leads 54% to 42% in a Critical Insight poll.

In Washington’s gubernatorial race, Democratic Gov. Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll.

In IL-11, Democrat Debby Halvorson leads 50% to 37% in a new SUSA poll.

In PA-12, Democratic Rep. Murtha is only up 46% to 41% in a new Susquehanna poll.

In WA-08, Democrat Darcy Burner storms back to grab a 50% to 46% lead in a new SUSA poll. Reichert trailed by 10% three weeks ago.

In MI-09, Democrat Gary Peters leads 46% to 36% against Rep. Knollenberg in a DCCC internal.

In OH-15, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leads 44% to 36% in a DCCC poll. She led by the same margin three three weeks ago.

In AL-02, Democrat Bobby Bright leads 50% to 43% in a DCCC poll.

Senate: It is difficult to know what to make of the Minnesota Senate race. Barkley is holding stable just under 20%, but his support is not firm: It could end up at a far lower point, but it could also end up rising if voters come to think he has a chance of pulling it off. In either case, it is impossible to know how that would affect Coleman and Franken’s totals.

House: Democrats get great news from SUSA. Darcy Burner appeared to be fading in WA-08, but she has now led in three polls in a row. The first two were Democratic polls, now an independent pollster confirms her comeback. IL-11 was once going to be an easy pick-up before GOP candidate Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient. Now, the Democratic surge appears to have buried Republican prospects of a come-from-behind victory here.

Furthermore, a trio of DCCC poll completes the strong news for Democrats, especially when combined with the NRCC pulling out of MI-09. That said, Susquehanna’s poll from PA-12 confirms the Democrats’ worst fear that Rep. Murtha’s recent comments about his districts has endangered his re-election prospects.

Poll watch: As LV and RV models split, Obama leads VA, McCain stops bleeding in yet another FL poll

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2008

in AK-AL, AK-Pres, AK-Sen, FL-18, FL-Pres, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, LA-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NV-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, TN-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-Gov, WA-Pres, WI-Pres and WV-Pres

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We are starting to see polling taken after the week-end (and thus after the Powell endorsement and McCain’s socialism charge), and there is little sign that McCain is closing the gap. He does gain a bit in two of the tracking polls, but he loses ground in four others, as Zogby, Research 2000 and Washington Post/ABC now all show Obama leading by double-digits. In all 10 of the national polls released today (including the AP survey, about which I will talk in a minute), McCain is stuck in the low 40s, between 40% and 45%.

One possible worry for Obama is that the size of his national lead is due to his gains in states that will not influence the electoral college: We have been seeing Obama open dramatic leads in safe blue states like California and Washington and cut margins significantly in places like Texas and Kentucky. The trends in places like Ohio and Florida are at a much smaller scale (surely because the volume of campaigning and advertisement makes these states less susceptible to follow national trends). So could the size of Obama’s lead in non-battleground states be obscuring a tighter race in the electoral college?

There isn’t much evidence of that in polls from battleground states, where Obama continues to get strong numbers - though he hasn’t put it away the way the way he appears to have secured a popular vote lead. But he dominates in Virginia, where CNN/Time finds him leading by double-digits yet again. Mason-Dixon does find the Old Dominion within the margin of error, but its previous survey had been the only one with McCain ahead since September. Furthermore, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in three out of the five CNN/Time polls (VA, Nevada and Ohio) and is leading within the MoE in two polls of North Carolina.

The good news for McCain comes from Florida: his lead in Mason Dixon is well within the margin of error, but it is the fourth survey in a row to find McCain gaining in the Sunshine State, a significant break from Obama’s fifteen consecutive - many of which were outside of the margin of error.

The second good news for McCain comes from the much-discussed AP poll that has a 1% lead. But three remarks apply here. First, McCain is stuck in the same range as every other poll (the low 40s), and Obama is much lower than his national average. As long as McCain cannot break 45% (or 46% in his best Rasmussen days), he doesn’t have much hope of besting Obama nationally. Second, Marc Ambinder remarks that evangelicals make up about twice as much of the sample as they usually do. Third, this gets us to the important slip between registered voters and likely voters.

Obama leads by 5% among registered voters in AP’s poll, a differential that also exists in Gallup’s tracking (+9% among registered voters, +5% or +8% among likely voters). And it is most dramatic in CNN/Time’s state polls. In all five, Obama performs better among RVs than among LVs (especially in Nevada, where he is ahead by 13% among RVs). What this means is very simple: Obama will benefit from higher turnout, and the size of his lead is partly dependent on how tight a likely voter screen pollsters apply.

There are clear indications that turnout will be larger than usual, particularly among Democrats, meaning that Obama’s lead could range somewhere between the LV screen and the RV results. Early voting numbers are going through the roof among Democrats and African-Americans in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada; furthermore, Gallup’s tracking poll acknowledges that the traditional LV model might not apply - which is why they have an expanded model which closely mirrors the RV results.

That said, it is impossible to predict how large turnout will be and whether Obama’s organization will fully function. And that’s why we have elections. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

Obama remains in command of the tracking polls, though they are not moving as uniformly in his direction yesterday. Obama gains 2% in Zogby (up 52% to 42%), 2% in Research 2000 (up 51% to 41%), 2% in Rasmussen (up 51% to 45%) and 2% in Washington Post/ABC (54% to 43%). Hotline finds a stable margin (47% to 42%). McCain gains 2% in Gallup’s expanded likely voter model (52% to 44%, with a 9% lead for Obama among RVs and a 5% lead in the traditional LV model), 2% in IBD/TIPP (46% to 42%). To recap, Obama’s leads are: 4%, 5%, 6%, 8%, 10%, 10%, 11%.

Obama leads 49% to 40% in a national Fox News poll conducted Monday and Tuesday. He led by 7% two weeks ago. Who knew a few months ago that Obama would achieve the support of 88% of Democrats (versus 83% of Republicans for McCain)? Interestingly, 66% of Democrats and 47% of independents think that spreading the wealth is a good idea.

Obama leads 44% to 43% in a national AP/GfQ poll conducted Thursday through Monday. He led by 7% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% among all adults and by 5% among registered voters, however.

Obama leads 50% to 42% in a national poll conducted by Ipsos/McClatchy conducted Thursday through Monday.

Obama leads 54% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 42%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 44%.

Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Virginia. McCain led by 3% two weeks ago.

Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Ohio, just within the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 45%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 44%, with 2% for Barr (50% to 43% among registered voters).

Obama leads 48% to 46% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina.

Obama leads 50% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of North Carolina, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 46%. When other candidates are included, he leads 51% to 46%, with 2% for Barr.

Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada. Among registered voters, Obama leads 54% to 41%. When other candidates are included, he leads 49% to 43%, with 3% for Nader and 2% for Barr.

McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Florida. Obama led by 2% two weeks ago.

Obama leads 52% to 41% in the Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 10% yesterday.

Obama leads 52% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin, conducted Monday and Tuesday.

Obama leads 51% to 38% in a Wisconsin Public Radio poll of Wisconsin. However, the poll was was conducted form the 9th to the 17th, so it is not at all an indicator of what is going on currently on the ground.

Obama leads 51% to 39% in a Pan Atlantic SMS poll of Maine.

Obama leads 55% to 36% in an Elway poll of Washington.

McCain leads 53% to 42% in an Ivan Moore poll of Alaska. McCain led by 17% two weeks ago.

McCain leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of West Virginia, just outside of the margin of error. Among registered voters, Obama leads 51% to 44%.

McCain leads 42% to 41% in a one-week old poll of West Virginia conducted by Democratic-firm Rainmaker.

McCain leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky.

McCain leads 54% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. He led by 19% last month.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Mark Begich is ahead 47% to 46% in an Ivan Moore poll of the Alaska Senate race. Begich led by 4% two weeks ago.

Kay Hagan leads 44% to 43% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.

McConnell leads 50% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. He led by 9% three weeks ago.

Mary Landrieu leads 54% to 34% in an internal poll of the Louisiana Senate race.

Chris Gregoire leads 51% to 39% in an Elway poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race.

Perdue and McCrory are tied at 44% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.

In AK-AL, Ethan Berkowitz leads 51% to 43% against Don Young in an Ivan Moore poll. He led by 9% two weeks ago.

In FL-18, Rep. Ros-Lehtinen leads 48% to 41% in an internal poll for Democratic candidate Annette Taddeo.

No big surprises in this batch of congressional polls. If anything, the news is good for the GOP as Sens. Stevens and Dole stay within the margin of error in their respective cases (as we await the verdict of the Stevens trial) and as Mitch McConnell remains ahead outside of the margin of error in Rasmussen’s survey. But the Louisiana numbers are naturally excellent news for Democrats; while Landrieu’s own survey might be overstating her lead, it does confirm the conventional wisdom that the incumbent is ahead.

Facing precarious map, McCain bets on PA, invests in FL and IN… and worries about Palin’s clothes

Published

Taniel

on October 21, 2008

in CO-Pres, ME-Pres, MN-Pres, NH-Pres, Nat-Pres, PA-Pres and WI-Pres

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With 13 days left before Election Day, John McCain cannot afford a single misstep, but he just had a bad night that augurs badly for his campaign’s confidence, polling trend lines and financial viability.

It is not good for McCain that the coverage he is receiving is increasingly devoted to strategic questions: can he come-back, what will he do to soften up Obama, where does he have a chance, and where is he spending his money? This makes it that much more difficult for McCain to unleash a new attack without being labeled desperate or for him to travel to any red state without a wave of stories being written about why he feels the need to campaign in that state in the first place. In nowhere is this more true than in Pennsylvania - witness this devastating lead in a New York Times article: “People are scratching their heads: Why is Senator John McCain here?”

That said, the McCain campaign’s strategic and financial decisions are necessarily scrutinized more closely because he is playing catch-up in the electoral college and because he has so few resources compared to his opponent that he needs to make more tough (sometimes very tough) calls. And the latest round of expenditures decisions is bound to be very consequential.

The McCain campaign is not pulling out of any new state, but it is reassessing its priorities and it is shifting some money out of five states, where the advertisement money that was supposed to be spend over one week will now be spread out over two weeks - all the way to Election Day. The five states are New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota (all blue states) and… Colorado.

Yes, red Colorado, whose 9 electoral votes combined with Obama’s base of blue states, Iowa and New Mexico is enough to make Obama president. Now, it is important to not overstate this news: The McCain campaign is still spending in the state and the RNC’s independent expenditure division is up on air. But the McCain campaign’s decision is certainly a sign that Republicans are worried the state is too far gone for McCain to still have a shot.

The resources that McCain is pulling out of those five states will go instead to Indiana and to the Miami media market - one of the most expensive in the country. The RNC was already airing ads in Indiana - but not the McCain campaign, yet another sign that the Hoosier state is a highly competitive battleground state. Who would have thought a Republican candidate would have to spend its resources in Indiana instead of Wisconsin and New Hampshire in the final weeks of a presidential campaign? That fact alone summarizes how precarious McCain’s position.

Where does all of this leave McCain? How can he possibly win the White House if he does not capture Colorado (and we aren’t even speaking of other highly vulnerable red states)? He would then be betting everything on Pennsylvania, the one blue state McCain is still fully investing in, and its 21 electoral votes, with which McCain can even afford to lose Virginia.

Trouble is, Pennsylvania polls are atrocious for McCain - and not just over the past five weeks, in which Obama has led by double digits in almost every single public poll. Sure, McCain significantly closed the gap in mid-September, but the last time McCain has led in a poll from the state was in April, just two days after the state’s divisive Democratic primary.

So the McCain campaign appears to have largely come down to the improbable quest for a stunning Pennsylvania comeback. This is a testament to the high odds the campaign faces, but it is not a particularly dumb a move considering McCain’s current situation. The Arizona Senator has his back against the wall and too little money to defend all the red states he needs to win in a sweep that looks increasingly unlikely; he has to make some choices and take a stand in some places but not in others.

Choosing to keep up a large effort in Pennsylvania allows McCain to keep a focused effort in a large state in case he tightens the race nationally in the final 13 days. Furthermore, if there is one state that could see suggestions of racialized voting and perhaps some Bradley effect, it could be Pennsylvania. The state has a history of Democratic voting on the strength of culturally conservative Democrats - and it is that constituency that might be the most prone to pulling away from Obama because of race. Rep. Murtha alluded to this last week by calling his own district “racist,” and Governor Ed Rendell was just revealed to have written two memos to the Obama campaign expressing his “nervousness” about the state and pleading for the nominee to return to campaign in the state.

(I also suggested this morning that one factor behind McCain privileging Pennsylvania to Colorado could be that the former, unlike the latter, does not have early voting so Obama is not able to build on his current momentum and lock in any votes.)

Furthermore, as is typical of any struggling campaign, McCain is being hurt by a slow drip of blind quotes, tactical second-guessing and staff infighting spilling in the media. Mark Salter’s rant yesterday or the New York Times magazine cover story that is coming out on Sunday are the mark of angry aides that are increasingly unwilling to wait until November 5th to voice their frustration. As Hillary Clinton learned in the first few months of the primary, an undisciplined campaign quickly becomes a great distraction.

But perhaps no distraction will be as great in the coming days as Politico’s bombshell revelation that the RNC spent $150,000 “to clothe and accessorize” Sarah Palin and her family over the past seven weeks. This is obviously a huge amount, and one that could land the McCain campaign in legal trouble “under the Federal Election Commission’s long-standing advisory opinions on using campaign cash to purchase items for personal use.”

At the very least, this is a highly embarrassing revelation that surpasses in scope any parallel story that comes to mind (starting with John Edwards’s $400 haircut, which so many Republicans like Mike Huckabee mocked mercilessly). Not only does it come at a particularly inopportune time given the GOP’s effort to not look out-of-touch in times of economic crisis, it also seems like the kind of story that will spark yet another round of intra-GOP fighting - as if the Palin pick had not already caused enough divisions among conservatives.

Overall, then, this is not the type of coverage McCain wants to receive. At this point, every news cycle passed without his landing a major blow on Barack Obama is a news cycle wasted - and there aren’t many news cycles left.

As McCain pushes back on CO report, early voting looms large on strategic decisions

Published

Taniel

on October 21, 2008

in CO-Pres, GA-Pres, NC-Pres, NV-Pres and PA-Pres

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We are now two weeks from Election Day, with as much time remaining until all votes are cast as has elapsed since the second debate… and it’s not clear whether John McCain has made any progress in the intervening time.

In fact, the electoral map is getting increasingly difficult for the Arizona Senator. The last thing a campaign wants to do in late October is waste time arguing over whether it still believes it can win the race, but that is exactly the position the McCain campaign found itself yesterday after John King reported on CNN that Republicans no longer believed they could win Colorado. Such an admission would have essentially been a concession, as McCain would have to win Pennsylvania to offset Colorado’s loss - and we aren’t even talking about the other endangered red states.

The McCain campaign immediately pushed back on King’s report, pointing out that the RNC was spending money in the state and denying that the McCain campaign had any plans to pull back of Colorado. But it is hard to read the GOP’s response as a particularly enthusiastic one, and Republican operatives undoubtedly realize that the Centennial State is a tough state for them to hold. And we should not be too harsh on McCain’s decision to concentrate on Pennsylvania: He is currently trailing in a number of states he absolutely must win, so he has no choice but to play heavily in states in which he looks weak.

The McCain campaign’s logic is the only one they can latch onto: They will not win the election unless the national margin tightens up in the first place, and if that happens states like Pennsylvania and Colorado that were close in mid-September could very well become competitive again. In one sense, saying that McCain should stop contesting Pennsylvania is almost like saying that he should stop contesting the election all-together, and just fully close down the show is the one thing a campaign cannot do.

That Pennsylvania does not have early voting helps those calculations since it means that Obama cannot take advantage of the current climate to turnout enthusiastic Democrats or lock the votes of unwavering supporters. Colorado, by contrast, does have early voting (which started yesterday, and the first signs point to a strong turnout) and an extensive mail-in program, which could make it more difficult for McCain to play catch-up.

Elsewhere, early voting continues at a strong pace - and one that remains favorable to Democrats. Here our now perhaps-daily update:

In North Carolina, we have now reached 480,000 early voters (that’s 140,000 more than yesterday). The partisan breakdown is overwhelmingly Democratic, 56,1% to 27,4%. That’s a slight improvement over yesterday for Democrats.

In Georgia, the latest total is 757,666 early voters, of which 35,7% are African-American.

In Nevada, 59% of early voters are Democrats, 25% are Republican, a stunning ratio that far outpaces the 2004 breakdown, where Democratic early voters outpaced Republicans by a few points, not 2:1.

Early indicators are that Florida’s early voting (which kicked off yesterday) is also going strongly, though there are no hard numbers (yet?).

As I said yesterday, none of this tells us what the partisan breakdown will be on November 4th, and we can be sure that 59% of Nevada voters will not be Democrats once all ballots are cast. However, we aren’t talking about small groups of voters here, but significant shares of the electorate. This is the most remarkable illustration of the enthusiasm gap we have seen since the early months of 2008 when turnout in Democratic primaries constantly outpaced that of Republican contests.

A scenario in which Democratic voters turn out in far greater numbers than Republicans has been worrying GOP operatives for a year now, and if those trends hold (albeit at a far less dramatic scale), it could prove a disaster for Republicans up and down the ballot. It also puts the burden on the GOP to replicate their 2004 turnout effort, for anything less than that is unlikely to overcome Obama’s machine.

And it is escaping no one’s attention that even some high-profile Republicans have been doing very little this year to motivate the base; Florida’s Charlie Crist, for instance, has been largely absent from the campaign trail, and he barely spent any time talking about the presidential race while stumping for state-level candidates yesterday: “Crist mentioned McCain at each of the three stops, but only fleetingly, devoting more time to candidates like Nancy Detert, running for an open state Senate seat in Sarasota.” This comes on the day after the Orlando Sentinel reported that the Florida Republican Party was considering withholding millions of dollars to use in subsequent cycles.

Poll watch: Obama remains strong in red states, holds large leads in Virginia

Published

Taniel

on October 20, 2008

in CO-Pres, CT-04, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IL-10, IL-11, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NH-Pres, NJ-03, PA-Pres, VA-Pres and VA-Sen

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We have reached the stage of a campaign where one day’s polling cannot but be confusing, as the growing volume of data that is released guarantees that results will appear to be discordant. That is the case today in the national polls (Obama’s lead ranges from 4% to 9%, with tracking polls going in both directions) and state polls, where Obama posts big gains and jumps to huge advantages in some polls while slipping in others.

So let’s take all of the polls together and try to break through the noise to find an overall picture. For one, it’s far too early to say that the race has tightened in a meaningful way. Yes, McCain appears to have cut his deficit to the single-digits whereas a large number of polls had him down double-digits last week; but there is little sign that McCain has made any more ground - and he remains in an extremely precarious position in the electoral college.

Yes, McCain does get some relatively good news today as he recaptures a narrow lead in Rasmussen’s Ohio and Florida polls - both are well within the MoE, but they represent meaningful shifts from last week’s polling. But many polls show Obama improving his position over the past week, suggesting that there is no clear trend towards McCain. In today’s polling, Obama is showing no sign of weakening among blue states and he remains strong in the two red states that are the most endangered, Colorado and Virginia, either of which would make him president.

In fact, in today’s polls alone, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in five red states where a win would put him above the top. McCain leads outside of the margin of error in zero such state, and he cannot even muster a significant advantage in Georgia. Obama, by contrast, leads outside of the MoE in Ohio, where a Suffolk poll gives him his biggest lead of the general election; in two polls of Virginia, one of which has him leading by 10%; in Colorado; in two polls of North Carolina, both of which have Obama gaining over the past week and one of which has him opening his largest lead ever of 7%; and even in Missouri.

(More on this later, no doubt, but John King is now suggesting on CNN is that the McCain camp is looking to give up on Colorado which would quite literally make no sense as that would concede enough electoral votes to Obama to get him president. That would mean that the McCain campaign is banking everything on winning Pennsylvania.)

That most trend lines are generally small and inconsistent suggest that most of the evolutions that have been recorded over the past five days are statistical noise, and that is good news for Barack Obama. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN national poll. He led by 8% two weeks ago, but he remains above 50%.

Obama leads 53% to 44% in an ABC/Washington Post national poll (the poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday). He led by 10% last week, so his lead is holding, though the internals show some progress for McCain. Less voters think that McCain would be a continuation of Bush’s policies. and 36% think McCain understands economic problems (up from 28%). But McCain’s main arguments appear to be washing away: asked who they would want to handle an unexpected crisis, 49% pick Obama versus 45% for McCain. The ABC/WaPo poll is a new daily tracking poll, so expect daily updates.

Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Democracy Corps national poll, with Nader at 3% and Barr 2 at 2%. Obama leads 50% to 46% in a two-way race.

[Update: Obama leads 54% to 41% in a CBS/New York Times national poll conducted over the week-end among people that were already interviewed right before the first debate. Obama led by 5% before the first debate. 98% of those who said they would vote for Obama are sticking him; 88% of McCain's supporters are sticking with him; among those who were undecideds, 52% are now backing Obama, 36% are now backing McCain.]

So much for the tracking polls converging. 4 have movement towards Obama, two have movement towards McCain. They show Obama ahead by: 4%, 5%, 6%, 6%, 8%, 9%.
The detail: Obama gains 1% in Research 2000 (50% to 42%), in IBD/TIPP (47% to 41%). He gains 3% in Zogby to lead 50% to 44%. Obama also gains in Gallup, now leading 11% among registered voters, 9% in the expanded model of likely voters and 5% in the traditional model (all three represent gains). But McCain gains 2% in Rasmussen and in Diego Hotline (respectively 50% to 46% and 47% to 42% for Obama).

Obama leads 51% to 42% in a Suffolk poll of Ohio. This is Obama’s largest lead in this state since the general election started. The poll was taken Friday through Sunday.

McCain leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Saturday. The state was tied in a poll taken late last week, Obama led in a poll taken last week. Rasmussen’s Ohio polls have generally been good for McCain.

Obama leads 51% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina, with Barr at 2%. Obama led by 2% last week. The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday.

Obama leads 51% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. The two were tied last week.

Obama leads 51% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. He led by 10% two weeks ago, by 6% a month ago. The main difference from the previous poll is that the partisan breakdown is a bit more favorable to Republicans; Obama gains a bit among independents. The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday.

Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. Obama led by only 3% last week. This poll was taken Thursday.

McCain leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. Obama led by 5% last week and by 7% two weeks ago.

Obama leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. He led by 7% last week. The poll was taken Saturday.

McCain leads 45% to 44% in a Suffolk poll of Missouri. The poll was taken Friday through Sunday.

Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri. The poll was taken Saturday. Obama led by 3% the previous two weeks.

Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire.

Obama leads 48% to 40% in a Susquehanna poll of Pennsylvania. This is the first survey taken since late September with Obama “only” up single-digits!

Obama maintains a 12% lead in Morning Call’s tracking from Pennsylvania.

Obama leads 50% to 44% in a SUSA poll of Minnesota. McCain led by 1% in the previous poll.

McCain leads 46% to 44% in a Democracy Corps poll of Georgia.

Down-the-ballot:

Kay Hagan leads 49% to 42% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. Chris Cole gets 4%. Hagan led by 2% last week.

Norm Coleman leads 41% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Minnesota’s Senate race, with Barkley at 18%. Two weeks ago, however, Coleman led by 20%.

Saxby Chambliss leads 48% to 44% in a Democracy Corps poll of Georgia’s Senate race.

Mark Warner leads 61% to 36% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia’s Senate race. He leads 60% to 36% in SUSA.

In CT-04, a University of Connecticut poll finds Shays and Himes tied at 44%.

In NJ-03, a DCCC poll finds Democratic candidate John Adler leading 43% to 35%. He led by 4% two weeks ago. Undecideds have decreased from 29% to 22%.

A pair of Illinois polls conducted by Democratic firm Bennetts, Petts and Bormington: In IL-11, Debbie Halvorson leads 50% to 29%; in IL-10, Rep. Kirk leads 47% to 41%.

Senate: Hagan remains on top in North Carolina, as we have now grown used to, though this is certainly a larger lead than in last week’s poll. Meanwhile, yet another poll confirms that Georgia is highly competitive but Democrats have to get going: 20% of registered voters have already cast their ballot, so the DSCC has to make a big push soon if it wants Martin’s surge to not come too late.

House: No surprise in the one independent poll of the day (CT-04), but Democrats lead in larger margins than we have seen of late in Dem polls of IL-11 and NJ-03. One thing that is not surprising is that undecideds are breaking towards the Democrat in NJ, however. That is the usual pattern in NJ politics.

Poll watch: Trackings tighten but Obama remains in command; Hagan, Collins and M. Udall lead

Published

Taniel

on October 18, 2008

in AK-AL, AK-Pres, AK-Sen, CA-50, CO-Sen, MD-06, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, MN-06, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, Nat-Poll, PA-Pres and VA-02

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The latest tracking polls suggest the presidential race might be tightening. Though the trend lines are not uniform, Obama’s biggest lead is 7% whereas last Saturday three trackings had him at 9%, 10% and 12%. In fact, compared to last week four of five trackings have McCain in a significantly stronger position, while the margin is the same in the fifth. That said, it also looks like all the trackings are converging to a similar 6-7% range, with most of the six polls released today going in opposite directions but towards that margin:

Research 2000 had shown a double-digit lead for Obama (between 10% and 13%) since September 13th; today’s poll showed a lead of “only” 7%, 50% to 43%. Given the stability of the past three weeks, this was certainly a noticeable drop, especially because it is due to two consecutive nights of tighter polling (+6% on Wednesday night and +7% on Thursday night). On the other hand, IBD/TIPP had been showing a tighter race than the other trackings, but Obama has now opened up a 7% lead.

A third tracking poll (Diego Hotline) also shows a 7% lead, down from 10% yesterday but similar to the last pre-debate poll. Two other trackings have slightly smaller margins, but no uniform trends: Obama’s lead in Zogby goes from 5% to 4% while his edge in Rasmussen goes from 4% to 5%.

That leaves us with the silliness that has become Gallup’s tracking poll. Gallup’s reputation should make its tracking poll the most important of the bunch, but the firm’s decision to release three different daily measures is making this impossible to follow: Obama’s lead today is 2% (likely voters, traditional model), 4% (likely voters, expanded model and down from 6% yesterday) and 8% (registered voters, up from 7% yesterday). Gallup thus ensures it cannot be wrong by offering a variety of margins and a trend towards both men - but how are we to know just what model Gallup thinks reflects the situation on the ground, what model Gallup’s interviews are suggesting should be the closest to the truth?

Taken together, these polls should give the McCain campaign some reason to hope, as Obama’s lead appears to now be hovering in the mid-to-high single digits, a far more manageable gap than the double-digit advantage Obama was posting last week. It should also serve as a big relief for Republicans, as the post-debate snap polls favored Obama and suggested that the Democrat’s lead would grow rather than shrink.

That said, a 5% to 7% lead in the second half of October is far more significant than a similar lead in the summer. Bush only led by more than 5% in three polls in the entire month of October 2004. Furthermore, it will take a few more days to see whether the national tightening (if there is indeed a tightening) will be spread homogeneously across the country or if it will primarily affect certain regions or demographics. Yesterday, we saw a few post-debate state polls that had Obama in a commanding position (CO, NV and MO). Today’s state polls were taken before the debate, but they have good news for Obama:

Despite most recent polls showing Obama in the lead in Virginia, McCain leads in Real Virginia. It is unclear how many electoral votes the McCain campaign expects to gain from Real Virginia, nor by how much the GOP’s polls show McCain leading Real Virginia.

Obama leads 46% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of North Carolina. A month ago, McCain led by 17%, but that survey looked like an outlier. The poll was taken on the 14th and 15th, so right before the debate.

Obama leads 52% to 39% in Morning Call’s tracking poll of Pennsylvania. This is the same margin as yesterday.

Obama leads 53% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of Maine. He leads 58% to 35% in the first district and 52% to 41% in the second district, so there is little danger of McCain snatching away an electoral vote.

McCain leads 57% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of Alaska.

Obama leads 47% to 43% in a poll of Florida conducted by a Democratic firm, Hamilton Campaigns, before the debate. One big problem in the poll’s internals is that Obama leads by 18% among Hispanics. Republicans are very strong among Florida Hispanics because of the high number of Cubans, and most other polls show McCain with a narrow edge among that constituency. Obama leads in the crucial Tampa region.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Kay Hagan leads 49% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of the North Carolina Senate race.

Susan Collins leads 53% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of Maine Senate race. 32% of Democrats cross-over to vote for Collins. She led by 19% in mid-September.

Mark Udall leads 52% to 40% in an internal DSCC poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Mark Begich leads 48% to 46% in a Research 2000 poll of Alaska’s Senate race. A month ago, he led by 6%.

Ethan Berkowitz leads 50% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of AK-AL. A month ago, he led by 14%.

In MN-06, an internal poll for the Bachmann campaign has her leading 44% to 33%. The poll was taken on the 12th and 13th. A DCCC poll taken last week had Bachmann leading by 4%.

In VA-02, Rep. Drake leads 47% to 42% in an internal poll for her Democratic challenger.

In CA-50, an internal poll for the Bilbray campaign has him leading 48% to 35%; an internal poll for the Leibham campaign has Bilbray leading 44% to 42%.

A surprising Democratic poll of MD-06 has GOP Rep. Douherty only leading 45% to 39%.

Senate: No surprises whatsoever among these four surveys: The Alaska race is entirely dependent on the outcome of Stevens’ trial (the jury should start to deliberate on Tuesday) while Hagan retains a slight edge. As for Maine, it is not looking good for Allen - just as we have known for months. It might make sense for the DSCC to invest in the race given how cheap the state’s media markets are, but the money could be put to better use with a bigger DSCC investment in Kentucky or Georgia.

House: Bachmann’s race is one many people are now interested in, and it confirms what we already know: Bachmann is slightly favored, but she is vulnerable. Depending on how much the DCCC invests, this race could certainly emerge as a hotspot, though Tinklenberg’s newly-raised half-a-million will certainly come in handy. In AK-AL, Berkowitz retains a lead but Young remains within striking distance, something other polls have also found. It is very much possible that a not guilty verdict for Stevens could also prove a boost for Young.

Poll watch: ND back in contention, OH resists Obama; Dems strong in CT-04, not in MO-06

Published

Taniel

on October 16, 2008

in CA-46, CT-04, CT-Pres, KY-03, MN-06, MO-06, ND-Pres, NE-02, NE-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Pres, OR-05, OR-Pres, OR-Sen and PA-Pres

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Today’s presidential polling is rather useless since these surveys were taken before a debate - and released after. None of these polls - including the five tracking polls - tell us what impact the debate might have had. That said, they provide a useful baseline with which we can compare polls released in the upcoming days.

John McCain gets some good news in this round-up - but only because any survey that has him within striking distance has now become great news for the GOP. Rasmussen’s new Ohio poll has the candidates tied just three days after Obama seized his first lead in Rasmussen polling; and both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls have tightened a bit, with McCain rising to a level he had not experienced in two to three weeks. In fact, Gallup’s “traditional likely voter model” has Obama leading within the margin of error - a reminder that turnout will be key.

That said, Obama undoubtedly remains in command; the tracking polls have him ahead between 4% and 11%. Furthermore, Obama seizes the lead in a North Dakota poll - the second survey in a row (after a “Forum poll”) from the state to show that it might be highly competitive after all (Obama withdrew from the state in September). Obama also looks competitive in the race for Omaha’s district. Furthermore, he continues to consolidate his position in blue state - coming in with his biggest lead yet in Pennsylvania and expanding his advantage in Oregon. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

The tracking polls have Obama in command, but McCain has made some gains in the run-up to the debate (all the trackings were taken before yesterday’s proceedings). Obama leads 50% to 46% in Rasmussen, the first time since September 25th McCain is higher than 45%; he leads 51% to 40% in Research 2000, 49% to 41% in Hotline, 49% to 44% in Zogby. In Gallup, Obama’s lead among registered voters and the expended model of likely voters is 6% (his smallest in two weeks); among the traditional model of likely voters, Obama leads by 2%.

The candidates are tied at 49% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Tuesday night, before the debate. A poll taken on Sunday night and released on Monday had Obama leading by 2%; that was the first time Obama had ever lead in a Rasmussen poll from this state.

Obama leads 53% to 37% in the Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania, his largest lead yet in the survey! In fact, it is Obama’s largest lead ever in Pennsylvania.

Obama leads 44% to 41% in a DMF Research poll of North Dakota.

McCain leads 48% to 44% in NE-02, according to a poll released by Democratic-form Anzalone Lizst.

Obama leads 54% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Oregon.

Obama leads 57% to 37% in a Rasmussen poll of New York.

Obama leads 56% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Connecticut. He led by 12% last month.

Obama leads 59% to 35% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts.

I am only including this because I try to include every poll I find, but this is probably the least trustworthy institute we have seen lately… A CNU Virginia poll has Obama leading 53% to 47%. The previous CNU poll had McCain leading by 9% but it had sampled almost no 18-29 year old and black voters were dramatically under-represented. This time, 58% of respondents are female.

I also do not think much of Zogby’s self-selected interactive (online) polls, but here are there nonetheless. Zogby showed McCain leading in Pennsylvania by comfortable margins when no one else did, now Obama is ahead; Zogby had Obama ahead comfortably in North Carolina when all polls had McCain up within the MoE, now Obama is narrowly ahead. In other news: McCain is up in Ohio and Indiana, Obama leads in Florida, New Mexico, Virginia, narrowly in Colorado and Nevada.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

The candidates are tied at 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Oregon’s Senate race. Smith led by 1% in mid-September. Rasmussen does not seem to have included the Constitution Party candidate.

In CT-04, Democratic challenger Himes leads 48% to 45% against Rep. Shays in a new SUSA poll.

In MO-06, GOP Rep. Graves leads 51% to 40% in a new SUSA poll. He led by 9% a month ago.

In OR-05, Democrat Kurt Schrader leads 51% to 38% in a new SUSA poll.

In KY-03, Rep. Yarmuth opens a large 57% to 41% lead against former Rep. Ann Northup in the latest SUSA poll.

In MN-06, a DCCC internal finds GOP Rep. Bachmann holding on to a 42% to 38% lead.

In NE-02, Rep. Terry is up 48% to 47% only in an internal poll for his Democratic opponent.

In CA-46, a seat that was deemed safe as of two weeks ago but that the GOP has been increasingly worrying about, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error.

Senate: Like North Carolina, Oregon remains highly competitive in all recent polling, making it unclear why so many Republicans seem to be resigned to losing both. That said, an incumbent below 50% is rarely in a good position, and Smith’s often vicious attacks ads have not sufficed to disqualify Merkley.

House: SUSA’s survey from MO-06 is perhaps the best polling news Republicans have gotten in weeks. This is a district Democrats are heavily targeting, and that the NRCC has started to invest in. Yet, Kay Barnes has made no progress whatsoever and Graves remains in a strong position. However, the rest of the surveys bring good news to Democrats. For one, Himes is in a strong position in CT-04 while Democrats look like they have made districts that were not supposed to be vulnerable competitive (NE-02, MN-06 and CA-46).

Meanwhile, Democrats have little to worry about in many of the seats Republicans were excited about picking-up. Northup’s candidacy was supposed to be one of the NRCC’s great recruitments, but she is quickly falling in Kentucky; and OR-05 was one of only two competitive Dem-held open seats before the GOP candidate got involved in a series of scandals relating to abortion and suscipicous trips.

Battleground watch: Obama swamps McCain, strong early voting numbers

Published

Taniel

on October 15, 2008

in FL-Pres, GA-Pres, IA-Pres, IN-Pres, ME-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NH-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres and VA-Pres

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When McCain-Feingold changed the rules of campaign finance a couple of cycles ago, who would have thought that Democrats up and down the ballot would enjoy such a gigantic financial advantage by 2008? Not only is the DCCC pouring in millions in contested House races while the RNCC can barely build a tiny firewall, but the spending disparity at the presidential level keeps widening.

In the week that ended on October 7th, the Obama campaign spent $32 million, compared to $16 million for the RNC and the McCain campaign. The week before, Obama spent $20 million and the GOP spent $12.5 - so Democratic dominance is increasing. Worst still for Republicans is that the disparity is far worse than 2:1 in key battleground states, and the GOP is pouring in so much money to stay on par in some states that it is basically giving up on others.

The Fix provides the full numbers and has a a very useful chart, but here are a few observations:

Florida deserves a category all to itself, as the Obama campaign spent $5 million on advertising in the past week, compared to only $1.8 million for the GOP! Over the previous week, the disparity was $3 million to $600,000. The other state in which the Obama juggernaut is being felt the most is Virginia, where Obama has increased his spending to $4 million - swamping the GOP 4:1. (Note that Republicans barely increased their spending in the Old Dominion while Obama doubled it.)

Another state that deserves its own category is North Carolina: They went from $137,000 to $1,8 million in one week, almost tying Obama’s spending ($2.1 million)! That means the GOP is spending more in North Carolina than in any other state but Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida (it is tied with the latter).

Meanwhile, Obama is now truly invested in red states, spending $2 million in Indiana and $2 million in Missouri (the GOP is at $800,000 in both). In New Hampshire, Obama is outspending the GOP more than 3:1, in Nevada and New Mexico, it’s 2:1. And even in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the GOP has shifted to a superior gear ($2.6 million in PA and $3 million in OH), Obama continues to dominate ($3.8 million in PA and $4 million in OH).

McCain is no longer outspending Obama in Iowa and Minnesota. Obama has made a major push in both states (he was largely absent from both as of last week) and spent slightly more money in both - but the spending is roughly equal. However, McCain spent far more money in Maine, the state in which the campaign just started advertising.

Update: More on this in the coming days, surely, but it looks like the RNC might be pulling out of Wisconsin, leaving the McCain campaign in a precarious position in one of the last blue states they are hoping to contest.

Money alone cannot win an election, but they can seriously complicate the life of the candidate who is being swamped - particularly if he is the underdog. The Obama campaign is drowning McCain’s message in most of these states, and that makes it much more difficult for the GOP to get its attacks to stick.

Also, don’t forget that a lot of the GOP’s spending comes in the form of the strange RNC/McCain expenditures (forcing half of the ad to be devoted to hitting “congressional liberals” rather than Obama, as I explained here) and that yet more RNC money is spent by the independent expenditure arm so that the McCain campaign cannot control the message. $1 spent by Obama is not equal to $1 spent by the GOP, so the financial disparity is even wider than these numbers indicate.

—

Early voting: The latest numbers out of Georgia confirm that early voting is attracting a lot of voters. More than 540,000 voters had cast a ballot as of the end of Tuesday, 37% of which were black. 29% of the state population (and 25% of the 2004 electorate) are African-American, so it is remarkable to see that black voters are keeping up their increased participation rate. The Atlanta Journal Constitution confirms that black voters are highly motivated by spending two hours observing the procedures in Cobb County: it was a 90-minute line (yes, three weeks before Election Day), and everyone who entered the line before giving up was white!

The share of the white vote in Election Day voting is bound to be higher, but black voters do not need to sustain their 37% voting for Democrats to have a good day. Anything north of 30% would certainly be a huge boost for Barack Obama and Jim Martin’s prospects (Georgia polls usually model 26% black turnout). Meanwhile, early voting is going strong in Indiana. While the raw numbers might not seem that stunning (3,000 in Indianapolis’s Marion County for now), Indiana early voting started two weeks after it was launched in Georgia and election officials emphasize how remarkable the turnout rate has been up until now.

As for Florida, the state GOP continues to be remarkably disorganized - and the Miami Herald confirms that the prevailing feeling among Florida Republicans is panic and disorganization. It is not hard to see why: the McCain campaign long neglected the Sunshine State, and their organizational efforts are now lagging behind - not to mention their candidate’s presence on the airwaves. But the article also contains a piece of good news for Republicans, who outnumber Democrats by 200,000 among voters who have requested an absentee ballot. (Florida overall has more Democrats than Republicans.) This is not surprising, since the GOP always puts more emphasis on absentee voting and Democrats are focusing on early voting; but it is reassuring for Republicans to see that their ground game has not collapsed.

Poll watch: Obama surges in NYT/CBS, leads in OH, CO; Udall pulls away, Dole competitive

Published

Taniel

on October 14, 2008

in CO-Pres, CO-Sen, MD-01, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Gov, MO-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-03, NJ-07, Nat-Poll, PA-03, PA-04, PA-11, PA-Pres, WA-08 and WI-Pres

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It is a testament to Obama’s dominance that a 9% lead in a national poll or a 2% lead in a Missouri survey almost seem underwhelming. But there is no question that almost every single polling data over the past two weeks oscillates from very good to stunning for Obama. Democrats are left worrying that Gallup’s tracking has Obama up only 7%, that Hotline is only at 6% or that Obama’s advantage in Suffolk’s Colorado survey is only 4% - and the very same day brings surveys that have Obama up double digits nationally and by 9% in Colorado.

The New York Times/CBS national poll is particularly noteworthy, of course, as the match-up itself (53% to 39% for Obama) is perhaps the least exciting news for Obama in that survey: He has now tied McCain among whites, and has jumped to a very solid hold on registered Democrats and Clinton supporters. And there are signs that his multi-million advertisement efforts are paying off, as more voters now think of McCain as susceptible to raise their taxes!

While Obama’s lead in this poll is certainly on the high end of his national results, what should frighten Republicans is that it is in no way out of line with other surveys and other internals: Most polls now have Obama in the high 80s among registered Democrats (take a look at Quinnipiac’s latest wave of state surveys, where Obama gets 93% party loyalty in Michigan and Colorado).

Furthermore, Obama continues to improve his hold on blue states (as evidenced by Quinnipiac’s release and the fact that he posts his seventh straight double-digit Pennsylvania lead) and McCain is unable to even hold on a lead within the MoE in any of the competitive red states. Obama leads outside of the MoE in OH and CO today, within the MoE in CO, NC and MO. In fact, this is the third poll in two days that has Obama leading in Missouri. On to the day’s full roundup:

Obama crushes McCain 53% to 39% in a national CBS/NYT poll of likely voters! The internals are quite stunning for Obama. Asked which candidate will raise their taxes, respondents answer… McCain, 51% to 46%! Obama leads by 18% among independents, and he gets 63% among first time voters - that number alone should make Republicans panicked, as it is likely those voters are not fully picked up by pollsters.

Obama leads 50% to 41% in a national LA Times/Bloomberg poll of likely voters. Three weeks ago, Obama led by 4%. 49% of respondents now say he has the right experience to be president, versus 37% in the previous three weeks ago. Only 10% say the country is in the right direction - the lowest number since 1991.

Obama leads 50% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Ohio. McCain led by 1% two weeks ago. Democrats have a strong partisan advantage. 12% of voters say they have already voted, and Obama leads by 18% in that group.

Obama leads 52% to 43% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado. Obama led by 4% in late September. gets 93% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Suffolk poll of Colorado.

Obama leads 49% to 46% in a PPP poll of North Carolina. He led by 6% last week.

Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll of Missouri. The previous PPP poll of Missouri, taken mid-August, had McCain leading by 10%. A key shift: Obama has gone from 78% to 89% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of Pennsylvania. This is the same margin as last week.

Obama leads 54% to 37% in a Quinnipiac poll of Wisconsin. Obama led by 7% in late September. Today, he gets 92% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 51% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll of Minnesota. Obama led by 2% in late September. Obama gets 90% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Quinnipiac poll of Michigan. Obama led by 4% in late September. He gets 93% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Delaware.

Two presidential match-up numbers from House districts: In PA-11, a district Kerry won by 6%, Obama leads by only 4% according to Research 2000. In PA-03, a district Bush won by 6%, Obama leads by 2% according to Research 2000.

Four presidential match-up numbers in key swing counties courtesy of Politico and Insider Advantage. All have Obama gaining over the 2004 results: In North Carolina’s Wake County, Obama leads by 6% - a 12% turnaround since 2004. In Nevada’s Washoe County, Obama leads by 1% - a 5% turnaround. In Florida’s Hillsborough County (Tampa), Obama leads by 6% - a 13% turnaround since 2004. And in Colorado’s Jefferson County, McCain leads by 1% - a 4% improvement for Obama.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Mark Udall leads 54% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado’s Senate race. Three weeks ago, Udall led by 8%.

Udall leads 45% to 34% in a Suffolk poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Al Franken leads 38% to 36% with 18% to Barkley in a Quinnipiac poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Three weeks ago, Coleman led by 7% though Barkley was not included.

Kay Hagan leads 46% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 9% last week, which was a high point for her - but this 2% lead is also a decline from the survey results two weeks ago.

Nixon leads 52% to 39% in a PPP poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.

In PA-11, Lou Barletta leads 43% to 39% against Democratic Rep. Kanjorski in a new Research 2000 poll.

In PA-03, Kathy Dahlkemper leads 48% to 41% against GOP Rep. English in a new Research 2000 poll.

In PA-04, an internal poll for the Altmire campaign finds the Democratic incumbent ahead 53% to 41%.

In MD-01, an internal poll for Frank Kratovil has the Democrat narrowly ahead 43% to 41%.

In NJ-03, a DCCC internal poll finds Democratic state Senator Adler leading 37% to 33%, within the MoE.

In NJ-07, a DCCC internal poll finds Democratic candidate Linda Stender 40% to 31%.

In WA-08, a DCCC internal poll has Darcy Burner ahead 49% to 44%.

Senate: Colorado’s Senate race has been remarkably brutal over the past few months - and yet it has been covered very little nationally, especially compared to the Minnesota or North Carolina Senate races. At the end of the day, this one will matter just as much as the others, and while Udall has been ahead for an entire year now, he has been unable to close the deal and Schaffer has stayed within striking distance. It looks like Udall is finally building a solid lead, as Quinnipiac and Suffolk make it three polls in a row to find the Democrat leading by double-digit. Colorado has not yet joined Virginia and New Mexico as sure Democratic pick-ups, but with 3 weeks until election day the situation is good for Udall.

The two other Senate races find some good news for both candidates. The Minnesota Senate race is certainly now a toss-up after Coleman appeared to pull away in September. Quinnipiac and SUSA, both of whom had big Republican leads here, now have the race within the MoE, and Barkley remains a huge factor. As for North Carolina, I have pointed out many times that the pessimism of Republican operatives isn’t matched by poll numbers, where Hagan has certainly inched ahead but Dole remains highly competitive.

House: First, the independent polls, as they confirm what we already know: Rep. English is not doing well at all, and the extent to which he is vulnerable is surprising given that the race was not in the top tier as of 6 weeks ago. In PA-11, Rep. Kanjorski is in huge trouble, as is any incumbent who is below 40, and he looks set to lose his seat. Not only that, but Barletta’s internal polls are in line with independent surveys whereas Kanjorski’s are way off. But it is the DCCC’s internal polling that continues to differ from independent surveys - with their numbers in NJ-07 and WA-08 being skewed to the Democrat compared to recent independent polling. Make of that what you will, of course, and one could very well argue that the Democrat’s turnout model is more accurate, but as always take internal surveys with a grain of salt unless they are confirmed by independent numbers.

Poll watch: Obama leads in MO, OH, FL and PA; Chambliss within MoE, Merkley gains

Published

Taniel

on October 13, 2008

in FL-13, FL-25, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, LA-06, MO-Gov, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, ND-Pres, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NV-03, NV-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Pres, OR-Sen and PA-Pres

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The window is closing for McCain to alter the state of play - something he needs to do to have a chance at saving his ticket in the multitude of red states in which he is now endangered. Yet, it is Obama who continues to post impressive gains day after day, for instance surging ahead to a dominant lead in a new poll of Missouri and taking the lead for the very first time in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio.

As always, the take-away lesson of these polls is the fact that Obama looks untouchable in blue states (he has two new double digit leads in Pennsylvania) and the high number of red states in which he has either tied McCain or looks to be ahead. Rasmussen’s weekly survey of 5 red states shows that McCain doesn’t have the lead in a single one, and Obama’s advantage is outside of the MoE in Florida - a state in which he has now led in the 9 most recent polls. Add to that new Obama leads in Nevada and in North Dakota (!), a second Obama lead in Ohio and it becomes obvious that McCain needs to dramatically change the dynamics at the national level.

Particularly noteworthy are the fact that Obama is leading in two MO surveys (including 8% in SUSA) and in ND. Even if the latter poll doesn’t come from a known pollster and should thus be taken with a grain of salt, it is telling that Obama’s surge has reached such proportions that states from which he pulled out (ND) or briefly decreased his ad spending (MO) in September now show him ahead. It will take a lot of effort for McCain to put these states back in the box, let alone cut Obama’s new-found edge in more obvious battlegrounds like Colorado, Virginia and Florida. On to the day’s full roundup:

Obama continues to dominate the tracking polls, though his lead slightly diminishes. He leads 52% to 40% in Research 2000 (-1%), 48% to 44% in Zogby (-1%), 48% to 42% in Hotline (-2%), 50% to 45% in Rasmussen (-1%). In Gallup, Obama leads 51% to 41% (+3%) but only by 7% in a tighter likely voter screen.

Obama leads 53% to 43% in an ABC/Washington Post national poll. His lead is 13% among registered voters. This is a clear improvement over ABC’s previous poll two weeks ago, where Obama was ahead by 4%. Obama’s position is very strong among Democrats.

Obama leads 52% to 45% in a USA Today/Gallup national poll, though here also his lead is tighter in a tighter likely voter screen (50% to 46%).

Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Marist poll of Ohio, including 89% of Democrats. Among registered voters, Obama leads 48% to 40%. Obama’s favorability rating has jumped up to 60%, while McCain is 54%.

Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the first Rasmussen poll to ever have Obama ahead in the state.

Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 3% in the previous Rasmussen poll.

Obama leads 53% to 41% in a Marist poll of Pennsylvania. He leads 49% to 40% among registered voters. His favorability rating has surged upwards to 65%, compared to 55% for John McCain.

Morning Call’s latest daily poll numbers from Pennsylvania have Obama leading 51% to 38%, his biggest margin yet in this tracking poll.

Obama leads by a remarkable 51% to 43% in a new SUSA poll of Missouri. He trailed by 2% in late September. The two are tied among white voters and Obama gets 89% of Democrats, up from 82% two weeks ago.

Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri.

Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. He led by 2% last week.

The candidates are tied in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. Obama led by 1% last week.

Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Nevada. In the previous poll, taken in August, McCain led by 7%.

Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.

McCain leads 51% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia. Obama leads among the 18% of respondents who say they have already voted.

Obama leads 45% to 43% in a “Forum poll” of North Dakota.

Obama leads 61% to 34% in a SUSA poll of New York.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Kay Hagan leads 44% to 39% according to her internal poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.

Jeff Merkley leads 46% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. He led by only 2% in a survey two weeks ago. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 7%.

Jay Nixon crushes Kenny Holshof 56% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.

Saxby Chambliss leads 46% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia’s Senate race. Chambliss led by only 2% two weeks ago.

Frank Lautenberg leads 51% to 38% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey’s Senate race.

In NV-03, Rep. Porter leads 43% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll. The margin of error is very large, especially for an independent poll - 6% - so this is well within that.

In FL-25, an internal poll for the Garcia campaign finds GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leading 45% to 42%.

In LA-06, a DCCC internal finds Rep. Cazayoux crushing Bill Cassidy 46% to 29%, with 9% going to Democrat Michael Jackson.

In FL-13, a Buchanan internal shows the GOP incumbent leading 50% to 32%.

Statewide: Strong numbers for Democrats, who confirm their good dispositions in Oregon and North Carolina’s Senate races (both essential to their hopes of having a good congressional Election Night). Neither Hagan nor Merkley have put the race away, certainly, but polling numbers have shifted towards both of them in recent weeks. As for Georgia, it is looking highly competitive - a late breaking race that might be remembered as the ultimate sleeper of the 2008 cycle. Whether Martin has a chance of pulling an upset likely depends on the size of the African-American turnout.

House: This is the second poll Democrats have released showing Cazayoux crushing Cassidy in LA-06. I am still as doubtful that the two Democrats combined could be 26% ahead of the Republican candidate in this conservative a district, but the GOP still has to produce any counter poll. The district is currently rated lean take-over, but that could soon change based on what the NRCC does. The Republican committee commissioned a poll from the district a few days ago. If they go out with an ad buy or release the results in the coming days, they must like their chances in the district. Otherwise, the race is indeed far less competitive than we thought.

It is as unclear what we should make of the numbers from NV-03, currently rated lean take-over. Porter is clearly vulnerable (at 43%), though he is clearly still in the game. The margin of error is large enough that it hard to draw any conclusions. As for the Florida internal polls, they confirm what we have known: FL-25 is highly competitive, while the GOP appears to have put up a solid firewall in FL-13.

10th presidential ratings: Obama surges past the 300 mark

Published

Taniel

on October 12, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, ME-Pres, MI-Pres, MO-Pres, NE-Pres, NH-Pres, PA-Pres, VA-Pres, WV-Pres and electoral map

. 0 Comments

There is no doubt that Barack Obama is currently in command of the presidential race, and the past two weeks have seen a dramatic shift in public sentiment. Obama has surged to a stunningly dominant position in all of the Gore and Kerry states (accounting for a total of 264 votes), as the financial crisis undercut months of Republican efforts in Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. At the same time, McCain’s position has been severely damaged in a large number of red states, most dramatically in states like Florida and Missouri that just a month ago seemed to be drifting out of Obama’s reach.

The most difficult decision in this update of my presidential ratings was not whether to lift Obama above the threshold of 270 electoral college, but which red states should be moved to the lean Obama column for him to achieve that feat. The reason the Democrat is in such a dominant position is not simply that he now looks to be slightly ahead in a number of red states (Colorado, Florida and Virginia are here being moved from the toss-up to the lean Obama column) but that he has a high single-digit lead in national surveys.

This situation is one we have not encountered in the past two presidential elections: national surveys matter just as much (if not more) than those at the state level. McCain might still be competitive in all the red states but New Mexico and Iowa, but, unless he substantially improves his position in national polls, it is highly improbable that he can pull off a sweep of all the states he needs to defend - Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia. All of these states are now at best a toss-up for the McCain campaign. The loss of a single one would likely lead to an Obama presidency.

As a result of these shifts, 313 electoral votes are now rated safe, likely or lean Obama - far more than the 270 (or 269) he needs to win the presidency. There are an additional 62 electoral votes that are rated as toss-ups.

However, remember that states that are in the “lean” category are considered to be very competitive and certain to be hotly contested. That means that Obama might be favored to win in November, but his election is no lock. A shift towards the GOP over the next two weeks - perhaps because of Wednesday’s debate - could easily lead Florida, Virginia and Colorado to move back to the toss-up column and Indiana and Missouri to move back to the lean McCain category, leading to a more competitive electoral college.

Without further delay, here are the tenth electoral college ratings (states whose ratings have been changed towards Obama are colored blue, those whose ratings have been changed towards McCain are colored red):

Safe McCain: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (122 EVs)

Likely McCain: Alaska, Arizona, Nebraska’s 1st district, North Dakota (17 EVs)

Lean McCain: Georgia, Montana, Nebraska’s 2nd district, West Virginia (24 EVs)

Toss-up: Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio (62 EV)

Lean Obama: Colorado, Florida, Maine’s 2nd district, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Wisconsin (79 EVs)

Likely Obama: Iowa, Oregon, Maine (at-large + 1st district), Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington (81 EVs)

Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont (153 EVs)

This gives us the following map and totals:

Safe + Likely Obama: 234 electoral votes
Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 313
Toss-up: 62
Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 163
Safe + Likely McCain: 139

I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past two weeks:

Colorado, toss-up to lean Obama: Colorado’s move into the Obama column was a long time coming. McCain proved remarkably resilient in the state throughout the summer, and by August Colorado looked like the ultimate toss-up. But Democrats gathered in Denver in late August, giving their party added exposure and shifting public opinion in Obama’s favor. Since the convention, at least twenty polls have been released from Colorado, and McCain has only led in two of them (both were taken before the financial crisis erupted, and McCain’s lead in both was within the margin of error). By contrast, Obama has surged to leads outside of the MoE in Rasmussen, CNN/Time, Insider Advantage, Quinnipiac - and even a double digit lead in the latest PPP survey.

One thing that McCain has going for him is that his campaign never neglected Colorado (unlike other endangered red states) and thus has enough of a ground game to stay in the game. Furthermore, Obama is only outspending McCain by 50% in the state (as of the last week of September), which is far less impressive than in other states. Thus, Colorado remains competitive - but with 23 days to go, the edge goes to Obama.

Florida, toss-up to lean Obama: Everything predisposed Florida to be tilting away from Obama: the high number of senior citizens, the importance of the Jewish vote, the fact that Florida had been far more solidly Republican in 2004 than it had in 2000. Yet, a combination of factors have led the dynamics to shift in the state: the Palin pick hurt McCain among Jewish voters, the economic crisis led Obama to surge among registered Democrats and (perhaps most importantly) Obama’s massive spending throughout the summer helped him slowly chip away at McCain’s advantage since the GOP didn’t spend anything in the state’s airwaves throughout the summer.

Even now, Obama is pouring stunning amounts of money in the state (Plouffe said the campaign had budgeted a jaw-dropping $39 million for its Florida efforts) and he outspent the GOP nearly 5:1 in the last week of September! Put all of this together, and it looks like Democrats could avenge the 2000 recount: Obama has led in the 9 most recent Florida polls, a streak that is all the more impressive because a good number of these surveys have Obama ahead outside of the MoE.

Georgia, likely McCain to lean McCain: Poll numbers are tightening after a McCain surge in early September, and early voting numbers hint at very strong turnout among African-American voters. Yet, the Obama campaign pulled out of Georgia a month ago, meaning that a Democratic win in this state would coincidence with an electoral landslide nationally and it would signify that Obama is strong enough in the southern white vote to carry North Carolina and Virginia as well.

Maine’s 2nd district, likely Obama to lean Obama: This is the day’s only rating change that favors McCain. The Arizona Senator moved some resources in Maine as he pulled out of Michigan. And recent polls that show Obama leading by mid-single digits in the state explain why: the second district’s vote is typically a few points more Republican than the statewide total, and that could allow McCain to take away this electoral vote.

Michigan, lean Obama to likely Obama: McCain’s October 2nd pull-out might have come as a complete shock, but the Wolverine State now looks to be a relatively safe Obama hold. Obama has surged to a 16% lead in the latest Rasmussen poll, and the Democrat’s lead will be further protected by the fact that the Obama campaign is not letting down its guard in the state and will continue to organize a strong ground game. But not only have the McCain campaign and the RNC left the state, but the state’s Republican leaders are now badmouthing the McCain campaign.

Missouri, lean McCain to toss-up: Republicans were hoping to have put Missouri away by mid-September as they did in 2004 to be able to concentrate their resources in other vulnerable states, and for a while it looked like the Show Me State was anchoring itself in the GOP column. Not only has Obama closed the gap in SUSA and Research 2000, but he has even taken a narrow lead in the latest CNN/Time and Rasmussen numbers (see polling history). Furthermore, Obama is keeping up a heavy investment in Missouri, outspending the GOP nearly 3:1 the last week of September. This is certainly not where Republicans were expecting to be in mid-October.

Nebraska’s 2nd district, likely McCain to lean McCain: The Obama campaign is making an active push here at the moment. Omaha residents have been seeing Obama’s advertisements for months, since they share a media market with Western Iowa, and Obama just opened a second staffed office in the district. Still a long shot for Democrats, but the McCain campaign is worried enough to have dispatch Sarah Palin to the state.

New Hampshire, toss-up to lean Obama: In 2006, in no state did the Republican Party drown as much as in New Hampshire, whose independents massively turned towards Democratic candidates. Yet, McCain had high hopes for the Granite State, whose independent voters carried him to victory in 2000 against Bush and in 2008 against Romney - and McCain looked highly competitive in New Hampshire polls… until three weeks ago. As the GOP brand has once again collapsed in the wake of the economic crisis, Democrats are more looking confident that they can repeat their 2006 sweep and polls are now showing Obama leading by substantial margins - often in double-digits.

Pennsylvania, toss-up to likely Obama: Many readers of this website criticized me for leaving Pennsylvania in the toss-up column for so long. But as long as Obama regularly polled under 80% of registered Democrats, there was no reason to move Pennsylvania in his column. After all, in few states could culturally conservative Democrats and blue-collar voters hurt the Illinois Senator as much as Pennsylvania. But the economic crisis dramatically transformed the field of play: Obama has jumped to solid levels of party loyalty, and his numbers in Pennsylvania have surged. The past five surveys all have him leading by double digits, between 12% and 15%! That said, the GOP is keeping up its efforts in Pennsylvania, McCain is still visiting the state, and his campaign is still pouring in millions of dollars, so Obama will still have to work to lock the state.

Virginia, toss-up to lean Obama: The polls have significantly shifted towards the Illinois Senator over the past two weeks. McCain did post a lead within the MoE in a Mason Dixon survey, but Obama has jumped to impressive leads in CNN/Time (9%), SUSA (10%), Suffolk (12%), PPP (8%), Insider Advantage (6%). But Virginia is Republican enough a state that I might have left it in the toss-up column if it weren’t for another factor: the McCain campaign has inexplicably neglected the Old Dominion. It was one thing to not believe that North Carolina or Indiana were actually competitive, but it was evident from the early days of the 2008 cycle that Virginia was highly competitive. Yet, Obama has basically had the state’s airwaves for himself for much of the spring and summer, as McCain invested a small fraction of Obama’s spending - and only in Northern Virginia. The RNC recently moved in the state, but Obama is still significantly outspending the GOP’s efforts. The different levels of commitment will also have crucial consequences on the ground game, and it is unlikely McCain can come anywhere near the organizational power Obama has developed in the state.

West Virginia, likely McCain to lean McCain: This is a historically Democratic state that was not supposed to be competitive this year. Nowhere was Obama as crushed by Hillary Clinton in the primaries as in West Virginia, and the Illinois Senator was hurt by his weakness among blue collar voters in Appalachia. Yet, the economic crisis has led registered Democrat to do something they don’t always want to do - vote Democratic in federal races, and nowhere has that changed the game as much as in Appalachia. ARG’s recent poll showing Obama leading by 8% might have been an outlier, but McCain can certainly not count on an easy victory in this state, and Sarah Palin has been dispatched here to fire up conservatives.

History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:

October 12th: + 150 Obama (313 for Obama [153 safe, 81 likely, 79 lean] and 163 for McCain [122 safe, 17 likely, 24 lean])
September 27th: + 55 Obama (239 for Obama [154 safe, 43 likely, 42 lean] and 174 for McCain [122 safe, 38 likely, 14 lean])
September 20th: +6 Obama (222 for Obama [154 safe, 19 likely, 49 lean] and 216 for McCain [119 safe, 41 likely, 56 lean])
August 31st: + 16 Obama (243 for Obama [154 safe, 29 likely, 60 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
August 20th: + 14 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 32 likely, 55 lean] and 224 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 59 lean])
July 30th: + 38 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 42 likely, 45 lean] and 200 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 35 lean])
July 16th: +28 Obama (255 for Obama [150 safe, 43 likely, 62 lean] and 227 for McCain [90 safe, 78 likely, 59 lean])
July 2rd: +11 Obama (238 for Obama [143 safe, 50 likely, 45 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 78 likely, 56 lean])
June 18th: +22 Obama (238 for Obama [86 safe, 97 likely, 55 lean] and 216 for McCain [87 safe, 87 likely, 42 lean])
June 4th: +20 McCain (207 for Obama [76 base, 107 likely, 24 lean] and 227 for McCain [97 safe, 77 likely, 53 lean])

Poll watch: McCain stops bleeding in some polls and in IN but trails big in VA, NC, PA and MI

Published

Taniel

on October 9, 2008

in AK-AL, AK-Sen, FL-Pres, GA-Sen, IN-Pres, KY-Sen, MI-09, MI-Pres, MN-03, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Pres, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NH-Pres, NH-Sen, NY-25, NY-29, OH-Pres, PA-10, PA-11, PA-Pres, VA-Pres and WV-Pres

. 0 Comments

Today’s state poll roundup makes it clear why we can say that Obama is in such a strong position in the electoral college race. First, he looks to have locked away the blue states: Three weeks ago, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania were all in dead heats. Today, most surveys from these states are finding Obama leading in double-digits, or at least high single-digits. Today’s Strategic Vision survey is, incredibly enough, the fifth consecutive poll to have Obama leading by at least 12%! And Rasmussen finds Obama leading by 16% in the Wolverine State, once an incredibly vulnerable state for the Illinois Senator.

Yes, an ARG poll finds Obama’s lead within the MoE in Minnesota, and as I have said before this is the one state in which Obama is not gaining (and the one state McCain is outspending him) - but he does appear to be keeping the lead, as Rasmussen and MPR’s polls suggested yesterday.

It is not surprising to see Obama surge by more in those states than in others: Michigan and Pennsylvania are both blue-leaning states, and the Illinois Senator was weak in them because he was significantly underperforming among registered Democrats. The financial crisis has first and foremost gotten Democrats to vote Democratic, and the effect of that is most felt in blue states.

With blue states quickly getting out of reach, it becomes that much more important for McCain to hold on to every single red state but IA and NM. And this is where his position today is interesting, as some polls show McCain has stopped the bleeding: And perhaps most importantly, he climbs back within the MoE (though still trails) in the new Rasmussen surveys of NC and FL and he jumps to a 7% lead in a Rasmussen poll of Indiana, the best polling news he has gotten in a while (perhaps the product of the RNC finally getting involved and convincing cross-over Republicans to stick with the GOP).

But threats are popping up everywhere for McCain. The Democrat surges to an 8% lead in Virginia today; the state looks to be increasingly leaning Obama at this point, as two polls released earlier this week had him up by double digits. He also grabs a 5% advantage in a Civitas poll of NC, while ARG shows Ohio OH his way. Obama even leads by 8% in West Virginia, and while that poll could very well be an outlier (it is, after all, released by ARG), the other surveys released by ARG today have trendlines that are very similar to those of other polls.

Let’s recap: Obama has some sort of lead today - within or outside of the MoE - in Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida and West Virginia. McCain needs to win every single one of these states, and Colorado, and Nevada, and Missouri… It is no surprise, then, that McCain is trying to change the national dynamics. To pull off a sweep of all these states, he cannot rely on his ground game or on luck. He will need to tighten the national numbers. On to the day’s full roundup:

Obama maintains his dominant position in the tracking polls, especially now that Hotline (which yesterday was mysteriously showing a 1% race) today has Obama leading 47% to 41%. This confirms that Hotline is the most bouncy of the five trackings. Obama leads 52% to 41% in Gallup, 51% to 41% in Research 2000, 50% to 45% in Rasmussen (-1%), 48% to 44% in Zogby (+2%).

Obama leads 51% to 43% in a PPP poll of Virginia. He led by 3% three weeks ago.

Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll of Pennsylvania. He led by only one in mid-September, but this trend corresponds to that found by most other pollsters.

Obama leads 56% to 40% in a Rasmussen poll of Michigan. Obama led by 7% three weeks ago.

Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 7% in a Rasmussen poll released on Monday - but he trailed by 5% ten days ago.

Obama leads 48% to 43% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina. The race was tied three weeks ago.

Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. He led by 3% last week.

McCain leads 50% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Indiana. He led by 2% last month. This is one of the best polling results McCain has gotten for a while.

Obama leads 48% to 45% in an ARG poll of Ohio. He trailed by 6% in mid-September. This survey, like the other ARG polls, was taken both before and after the second presidential debate.

Obama leads 47% to 46% in an ARG poll of Minnesota. A mid-September survey found the same margin.

Obama leads 52% to 43% in an ARG poll of New Hampshire. McCain led by 3% in mid-September.

McCain leads 49% to 46% in an ARG poll of Missouri. He led by 5% in mid-September.

Obama leads 50% to 42% in an ARG poll of West Virginia. He trailed by 4% in mid-September.

McCain leads 50% to 45% in an ARG poll of Montana. He led by 2% in mid-September.

Obama leads 50% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New Jersey. He led by 13% last month.

McCain leads 50% to 43% in a Strategic Vision poll of Georgia.

McCain leads 57% to 38% in an ARG poll of Texas.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot:

Al Franken leads 43% to 37% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Barkley gets 17%.

Mark Begich leads 49% to 45% in an Ivan Moore poll of Alaska’s Senate race. He led by 2% three weeks ago.

Saxby Chambliss leads 47% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll of Georgia’s Senate race.

Jeanne Shaheen leads 51% to 42% in an ARG poll of New Hampshire’s Senate race.

Mitch McConnell leads 47% to 38% in an internal poll released by his campaign in Kentucky’s Senate race. The previous McConnell poll had him leading by 17%, so even his pollster finds the race tightening.

Pat McCrory leads 43% to 41% in a Civitas poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.

In NY-29, Eric Massa leads GOP Rep. Kuhl 49% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. This is the third poll in a row (including an independent poll by SUSA) to find the Democrat with a significant lead in this rematch of the 2006 race.

In MN-03, Democrat Ashwin Madia leads 46% to 43% in a SUSA poll. Last month, Paulsen led by 3%.

In AK-AL, Ethan Berkowitz leads leads 51% to 42% in an Ivan Moore poll. He led by 5% three weeks ago.

In PA-10, Rep. Carney leads 48% to 33% in a Franklin & Marshall independent poll, confirming the finding of other recent surveys.

In PA-11, Rep. Kanjorski leads 47% to 39% in a DCCC poll of PA-11. Public polls and Republicans polls have Kanjorski trailing by substantial margins.

In MI-09, Gary Peters leads GOP Rep. Knollenberg 43% to 40% in an internal poll for the Peters campaign.

In NY-25, Dan Maffei leads 49% to 31% against Republican Sweetland in an internal Democratic poll.

Senate: The best news of the day surely comes for Democrats, who keep their edge in New Hampshire, gain one in Minnesota while yet another survey confirms that Chambliss is vulnerable (the DSCC has still not invested in the state). But Republicans should take comfort in Ivan Moore’s poll from Alaska: Ted Stevens might be trailing, but Mark Begich has not been able to build any sort of comfortable lead over the past few months. That makes it likely that an acquittal would save this seat for Republicans, and given how openly the prosecution is disrespecting the defense’s rights in this trial, Stevens could very well survive the trial - and the election.

House: Democrats get a lot of good news in this wave of surveys. Some of it comes from internal numbers to be taken with a grain of salt (as long as DCCC numbers in PA-11 are at odds with any other poll we are seeing, it is hard to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt), others come from independent pollsters. AK-AL, in particular, appears to be anchoring itself in the blue column - and Young will be hard-pressed to benefit from any bounce from a Stevens acquittal. And NY-29 does seem to be drifitng towards Massa, as three polls in a row have found the Democratic challenger ahead outside of the margin of error. The DCCC hasn’t spent any money on this race yet, but this race might soon be added to the lean takeover category.

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Shifts are within the MoE, but this is the first time Rasmussen has Sen. Murray up on Rossi by any margin: http://bit.ly/ag82kp

In FL-Gov, Quinnipiac confirms other pollsters' findings that GOP primary has allowed Dem Alex Sink to rebound in the g-e. Now a toss-up.

Mason Dixon: Reid leads by 1%, down from 7% lead 2 wks ago. While prior poll was too good to be true this halts Angle collapsing narrative

And in morning's most depressing 2010 news, Florida's 2 self-funders have bought their way into leads in Quinnipiac. http://bit.ly/aySxrS

Lots of Senate polls out this morning: Blunt leads Carnahan by 6% (Ras), Brown leads Fiorina by 5% (PPIC), Ayotte is up 8% on Hodes (UNH).

Kaiser's tracking poll shows 50% now support HCR, 35% oppose it. http://bit.ly/bVknIx Can GOP really use issue?

Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'PA-Pres' CategoryPage 2 of 7

Poll watch: Obama leads big in OH, PA, FL, IN and more; Franken narrowly ahead

Poll watch: As LV and RV models split, Obama leads VA, McCain stops bleeding in yet another FL poll

Facing precarious map, McCain bets on PA, invests in FL and IN… and worries about Palin’s clothes

As McCain pushes back on CO report, early voting looms large on strategic decisions

Poll watch: Obama remains strong in red states, holds large leads in Virginia

Poll watch: Trackings tighten but Obama remains in command; Hagan, Collins and M. Udall lead

Poll watch: ND back in contention, OH resists Obama; Dems strong in CT-04, not in MO-06

Battleground watch: Obama swamps McCain, strong early voting numbers

Poll watch: Obama surges in NYT/CBS, leads in OH, CO; Udall pulls away, Dole competitive

Poll watch: Obama leads in MO, OH, FL and PA; Chambliss within MoE, Merkley gains

10th presidential ratings: Obama surges past the 300 mark

Poll watch: McCain stops bleeding in some polls and in IN but trails big in VA, NC, PA and MI

2010: Governor Rankings

2010: Senate Rankings

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