Archive for the 'PA-06' Category

Yet two more breaks for House Republicans

Published
by
Taniel
on February 22, 2010
in FL-10 and PA-06
. 12 Comments

The NRCC was spared two big headaches this week-end: Rep. Bill Young has decided to run for re-election and ex-retiree Rep. Jim Gerlach finally succeeded at clearing his primary field. Not that Democrats are particularly optimistic about their chances of playing offense this year, but these two developments significantly diminish the party’s chances of picking-up either of their districts, rare GOP-held seats the DCCC had been eying.

No open seat in Pinellas County

79-year Bill Young has been in the House for 40 years, which makes him the longest-serving Republican in either chamber of Congress. The former chair of the Appropriation Committee, he used to be one of Washington’s most powerful politicians but is now relegated to the ranks of a largely powerless minority; even if the GOP regains control in 2010, he’d be unlikely to have anywhere near as much influence as he did between 1999 and 2005. This combination of factor has made him a fixture of retirement watches for years now, and there were a lot of reasons to believe Democrats (who have never been able to lay so much as a glove on him) would finally get their shot at the open seat this year.

For one, he explicitly stated he was undecided about whether he’d run. Second, he faced his first credible Democratic challenger in decades, as he at the very least needs to seriously campaign against state Senator Charlie Justice; would he have it in him to do so after 19 re-election races that have nearly all been uncompetitive? Third were his fundraising reports, which were so low that he could only be discouraging contributions: How can the ranking Republican on the Appropriations Committee raise only $750 in the fourth quarter otherwise? The question remains all the more puzzling that he has hasn’t shown animosity to off-year fundraising in the past.

Yet, the open race won’t be for this year. At an event held on Saturday night as a tribute to the congressman, Young announced he would run for a 21st term.

In normal circumstances, an incumbent who represents a district won by the opposing party’s presidential candidate (Obama carried the district by 4%), who has banked only $750 in the latest quarter and who faces a 10-year state Senator would be considered highly vulnerable. But these are hardly normal circumstances and Young is clearly favored to win in November. The electorate is too hostile to Democrats for the party to have a shot at ousting any but the least entrenched Republican incumbents, especially Young whose stature would make it tough for Democrats to defeat him in a favorable environment, let alone in 2010. Furthermore, as a senior member of the Appropriations Committee he should have no trouble quickly filling his campaign coffers. Finally, Democrats have generally been down on Justice since last spring, and whatever confidence they once had Justice could defeat Young has largely evaporated.

While Young’s decision considerably diminishes Democrats’ takeover prospects in a rare district they are targeting, there is a convincing reason (articulated by James L. over at SSP) to think Young’s decision should come as a relief to Democrats: Given that the party has been waiting for his retirement for much of the decade, it could have been a waste to have it come in the one cycle in which open seats are bound to favor Republicans. (In 2006 and 2008, Democrats had no difficulty holding open seats in tough districts like OH-06 and OR-05.) Had Young retired now, the GOP would have been favored to defend the seat whereas in most future cycles an open seat should be no worse than a toss-up for Democrats. Can the DCCC be that unhappy they might have a shot at a Young-less district in 2012 rather than in 2010? (A major caveat: redistricting could alter the district’s boundaries.)

None of this means we should entirely take our eye off of this district this year. Justice remains an experienced politician with a strong foothold in the district while an aging congressman who has not had to seriously campaign for decades is prone to gaffes that can endanger his re-election. Look at IL-08 in 2004, when 36-year incumbent Phil Crane despite the year’s being a tough one for Democrats.

(An other Florida district became the subject of retirement rumors on Friday, when 66-year old Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite announced she’d make a major announcement, which turned out to be that she is getting married. Not that Democrats would have had much of a shot at an open seat here: FL-05 gave Bush and McCain double-digit victories.)

No primary for Gerlach

PA-06 was one of the cycle’s most vulnerable seats until Rep. Jim Gerlach dropped out of the Governor’s race and announced he would seek re-election after all. That was a major blow to Democrats, since they were well-positioned to pick-up an open seat in a district that went for Kerry by 4% and Obama by 17%, but they clung to the hope that Gerlach might not be able to survive the May primary: Gerlach found himself in early January with no campaign structure and next-to-money he could use, whereas two credible Republicans were in the race refusing to drop-out.

State Rep. Curt Schroder lasted less than a week, leaving businessman Steven Welch as Gerlach’s sole GOP opponent. While Welch was clearly an underdog, he had more than $650,000 in the bank at the end of 2009, he was apparently willing to pour in much more from his personal fortune and he was clearly a credible enough candidate that the NRCC was once busy touting his entry as a recruitment coup. At the very least, he would have forced Gerlach to use whatever campaign cash he could come with by May 18th, making him an easier target for Democrats.

But Welch has now ended his campaign, taking with him the millions the DCCC was hoping would indirectly help its cause. (One reason that might have contributed to his decision is that his moderate profile made it impossible for him to hope for the support of the Club for Growth or of Tea Party groups, which might have considered backing a challenge to Gerlach otherwise.) Gerlach is now certain to be the GOP nominee on the November ballot, which considerably increases the party’s chances.

That said, Democrats should not give up on PA-06: With two hotly contested statewide races on the ballot in November, the party will have a full-blown turnout machine working the Philadelphia suburbs, so they might as well work against Gerlach at the same time as they’re working against Toomey and Corbett. Also, Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike had already put together top-tier campaigns before Gerlach’s re-entry and while their chances would have been much higher come 2008, it would be a waste for the party to give up now. After all, the DCCC has to play offense somewhere.

Note that this district was gerrymandered to favor Republicans in 2001. If Democrats have some control over the next redistricting process, they should be able to impose a more favorable redrawing of Philadelphia’s suburbs. Even if Republicans have full control, it’s tough to see how they could make it that much more protected, though depending on the November results they could try to draw PA-07 bluer to get PA-06 redder.

NRCC rolls out favorable Pennsylvania news

Published
by
Taniel
on January 11, 2010
in IN-09, PA-06, PA-08, PA-17 and VA-09
. 25 Comments

Mike Sodrel must really have liked serving in the House in 2005 and 2006. This week, he announced that he would seek yet another rematch against Rep. Baron Hill. This will be the two men’s fifth consecutive match-up; Hill won in 2002, lost in 2004, reclaimed his seat back in 2006 and defended it in 2008. Sodrel’s entry certainly puts IN-09 on the map: he has the network and electoral experience to  benefit from a favorable environment just as he did in 2004.

That said, Sodrel is one Republican recruit who isn’t make Democrats shake in their boots. While rematches are sometimes successful, voters are often reluctant to reconsider a decision they’ve already made once; that’s all the more the case when they’ve had to make it four times already! In 2008, Hill crushed 58% to 38%; his prior largest margin of victory had been 5%. While a lot of that is due to Barack Obama’s unexpected ability to transform Indiana politics, there’s no question that district voters no longer seem open to entertaining the thought of backing Sodrel; that would make it hard for him to take advantage of a potential red wave. In further proof of Sodrel’s diminished stock, he will face his first contested primary in eight years: attorney Todd Young has been running since early 2009, and he has mounted a credible enough campaign to wrestle the nomination from Sodrel.

Sodrel might not make IN-09 a GOP success story, but over the past few days the NRCC have managed to expand the map yet again, putting in play two PA districts (PA-08, PA-17) while solidifying their chances in a third (PA-06).

In PA-08, Rep. Patrick Murphy did not appear to have much to fear in 2010: His district voted for John Kerry (albeit only by 3%) and backed Obama by 9% in 2008. Certainly not unwinnable by the GOP, but the party certainly has more promising districts to go after next year. Yet, the congressman Murphy defeated back in 2006 - former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick - just announced he will be running for his old job; he lost by just 1,521 votes that year. The major caveat to Fitzpatrick’s candidacy is that he only represented the district for one term. In fact, Fitzpatrick won his only congressional race in bizarre circumstances: longtime Rep. Greenwood announced he was dropping out after the primary, so Democrats weren’t able to replace the sacrificial lamb they had already nominated which allowed Fitzpatrick to score an easier victory than he should have given the district’s demographics. Despite the fact that Fitzpatrick won’t be able to rely on a long relationship with district voters, he is a rare Republican who can at least put the district on the map.

In PA-17, the NRCC managed to recruit a top candidate who just two months ago had said he was “99% certain” not to run, yet another sign that Republicans are increasingly confident that they can score great gains in this fall: This sets up 9-term Blue Dog Rep. Tim Holden’s first competitive race since he unexpectedly survived a redistricting-induced fight against a fellow incumbent back in 2002. Holden was not supposed to win that race, by which I mean that PA-17 was drawn to ensure GOP Rep. George Gekas’s re-election; it’s a conservative district that gave Bush a 16% victory in 2004 and McCain a 3% victory in 2008. Can state Senator Dave Argall succeed in picking-up the district Gekas failed to hold? Holden’s stature leaves him as the clear favorite, but there is no question that the DCCC will have to seriously sweat it out for yet another longtime incumbent.

In PA-06, finally, the NRCC has successfully cleared one of the obstacles to Rep. Jim Gerlach’s road to the GOP nomination: After initially announcing that he would stick to the race and blasting Gerlach for treating the district as a “consolation prize,” Rep. Curt Schroder announced today that he was dropping out. The anguished statement he released to explain his decision cites as a main reason the financial difficulties he was sure to face; the statement also clears any ambiguity there might have been about Schroeder’s ideological profile: he cites former Reps. Bob Walker and Pat Toomey (both known as staunch conservatives) as people he “highly respects,” which would have made for an interesting general election campaign in a district Obama won by 17%.

With Schroder’s out, Gerlach’s only obstacle to the Republican nomination (and to Democratic hopes that they won’t have to face the incumbent in November) is businessman Steven Welch, who could continue relying on his personal fortune to overcome the financial challenge of facing an incumbent. Before settling on any plan, will Welch at least check in with the Club for Growth about their interest in opposing Gerlach?

For Democrats to receive some good news tonight, let’s end this post in southwestern Virginia, as the NRCC has suffered an important recruitment blow in VA-09: In their efforts to expand the map and to target Rep. Rick Boucher in a district that gave McCain a 19% victory, Republicans had been heavily courting state Delegate Terry Kilgore. (You’ll probably recognize his last name, as he is the brother of the GOP’s 2005 gubernatorial candidate, who led for most of the race before losing to Kaine.) Yet, Kilgore announced last week that he would not challenge Boucher, which is a relief for the 14-term incumbent. Republicans are now courting state Sen. William Wampler, though he doesn’t appear likely to get in. As we learned in PA-17, the NRCC won’t rest until the filing deadline has passed, but VA-9 is shaping to be one conservative district the GOP won’t be able to put on the map.

Jim Gerlach unretires

Published
by
Taniel
on January 9, 2010
in PA-06 and PA-Gov
. 23 Comments

While the number of retiring House Democrats has increased in recent months, the GOP has managed to get rid of one of its only open seat headaches: A day after he dropped out of Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race, Rep. Jim Gerlach clarified his plan by announcing he would run for re-election.

As a district that voted for John Kerry by 4% and for Barack Obama by 17%, Gerlach’s PA-06 was one of Democrats’ top opportunities - part of a firewall of potentially easy pick-ups that the DCCC was hoping would help them offset big losses elsewhere. But Gerlach’s move only leaves two obviously competitive GOP-held open seats (DE-AL and IL-10), a stark contrast to Democrats’ 8 vulnerable open seats.

What must be particularly frustrating to the DCCC is Republicans’ good luck. Indeed, while even Dodd, Dorgan and Ritter’s retirements told us something about how much the political environment has shifted over the past year, Gerlach’s reversal has nothing to do with the GOP’s upbeat outlook on 2010 or with Democrats’ declining fortunes; rather, he changed course because he was failing at gaining any traction in the Governor’s race: Facing Attorney General Tom Corbett, Gerlach was trailing in polls, he was unable to fundraising as much as he’d need to fund his campaign and he didn’t even look to have an electability edge. And yet, the NRCC managed to turn his dire situation into yet another positive development for their 2010 chances, which speaks to just how many things have gone perfectly for Republicans’ over the past 8 months.

Thankfully for Democrats, Gerlach’s unretirement does not solve the GOP’s problems. For one, Democrats have targeted this district from the moment the cycle started, and they have two candidates who’ll probably stay in the race. Newspaper publisher Doug Pike and veteran Manan Trvedi might not seem like the most formidable candidates Democrats could have found, but the DCCC seemed satisfied with them. Both have raised substantial sums of money, which should prove useful considering Gerlach has to start from scratch as I doubt he can transfer money from his gubernatorial campaign to his House committee.

And he’d sure need it, because Gerlach is known to be a weak incumbent. He narrowly survived top-tier opposition in 2004 and in 2006; in 2008, Democrats fielded a low-profile candidate with little money and little buzz, but even then Gerlach prevailed by an unexpectedly small margin. Sure, 2010 is no 2008, by which I mean that it should be hard for Democrats to beat any Republican incumbents, but PA-06 leans blue enough that Gerlach’s general election campaign is sure to be highly competitive.

If he even makes it that far: Gerlach announced his retirement mid-July, which means that for the past six months local Republicans have been preparing his succession. The congressman cannot just waltz back in the House race and expect candidates who’ve put in half-a-year’s worth of efforts to simply step aside. They might do so over time, but it will surely take a lot of persuasion from the Republican establishment, which has fully rallied behind Gerlach. For now, state Rep. Curt Schroder and businessman Steve Welch both say they will not get out of the race.

(Welch’s story is particularly amusing: He was first running in the open seat in PA-07, but Republicans officials wanted to push him out once former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan’s entered that race. They convinced him he should move to run in PA-06, where Schroder would be a less formidable primary opponent… but Welch now finds that the race he’s in is no longer an open seat, and he once again finds himself the target of NRCC pressure. Also: Welch had recently loaned his campaign $500,000.)

If Schroder and/or Welch stand firm, it could mean that Gerlach faces the very real threat of losing the Republican primary. The contest is in four months, which gives him plenty of time to prepare but also means his opponents’ head-start could be a factor. Furthermore, it will be interesting to see whether conservative groups intervene to prevent Gerlach’s renomination, since the congressman has somewhat of a moderate profile. Whatever their reputation prior to their run, both Schroder and Welch have been campaigning as conservatives, witness this ode to Doug Hoffman on Schroder’s Facebook page. And the state representative’s latest Facebook message reads:

People want bold new direction and leadership. We need a congressman who will actually FIGHT to reverse the slide into a European style social welfare state. The 6th District deserves a Congressman who actually wants to do the job, not one who sees it as a consolation prize for a failed attempt at becoming Governor.

All of this is only to say that PA-06 remains competitive, not that Gerlach’s move doesn’t improve Republican chances. The GOP would obviously much prefer having the chance to defend an incumbent rather than an open seat in a 17% Obama district. The NRCC cannot be certain that Gerlach’s unretirement will ensure his re-nomination, let alone his re-election, but his re-entry does move a toss-up that was tilting towards Democrats back on the Republican side.

You would think a sitting congressman’s withdrawal would have some impact on the Governor’s race as well, but it is hard to see how the gubernatorial outlook might have changed. As I pointed out above, Gerlach was the heavy underdog, and polls did not suggest he would perform better than Corbett in the general election; his move can’t even be said to help the Attorney General by allowing him to save money for the general election: Not only had Gerlach been raising too little to force Corbett to empty his bank account, but Pennsylvania’s primary is early enough that it leaves plenty of time for campaigns to prepare for November.

Gerlach opens up competitive House seat for uncertain statewide run

Published
by
Taniel
on July 14, 2009
in PA-06 and PA-Gov
. 0 Comments

For the second time in one week, a Republican congressman is leaving his vulnerable House seat to seek statewide office. Rep. Jim Gerlach announced that he would run for Pennsylvania’s open gubernatorial race, a blow to the NRCC’s hopes of securing a net pick-up of seats in the 2010 cycle. Along with Anh Cao’s LA-02 and Mark Kirk’s now open IL-10, PA-06 becomes the third GOP-held seat Democrats are favored to pick-up in 2010. (No Dem-held seat is as vulnerable.)

Just like Kirk, Gerlach represents tough territory - IL-10 and PA-06 are two of only six districts that voted for John Kerry in 2004 but that are still represented by Republicans. Both men somehow survived the blue waves of the past two cycles but their situation was simply not tenable and it is not surprising seeing either of them flee their district.

In Gerlach’s case, the 2008 cycle was all the more of a warning sign because of the narrowness of his loss was not unexpected. After two very narrow re-election victories, he thought he was safe since Democrats did not field a top-tier contender; yet, he only ended up surviving by 4%. He must have realized that it was only be a matter of time until a stronger challenger channeled the district’s liberal tilt and ended his political career, so why not jump in a statewide race that looks more winnable than his House district?

Democrats have edge in open seat race

So Kirk and Gerlach’s decisions might make sense, but that’s not going to make the NRCC feel any better. House Republicans now have to defend two districts that voted for Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama - and both did the latter by decisive margins: Obama received 58% in PA-06 and 62% in IL-10. Whatever the national environment, the GOP faces tough odds holding on to either seat.

And yet, we shouldn’t dismiss the GOP’s chances. The party already has a candidate lined up: State Rep. Curt Schroder formed an exploratory committee in expectation of Gerlach’s jump in the gubernatorial race. A member of the state House since 1995, Schroder represents the district Gerlach held in the early 1990s and he is as credible a candidate as Republicans could hope for in such a Dem-trending district.

On the Democratic side, former newspaper columnist Doug Pike looks like the front-runner to win the nomination. He did not seem like he’d have an easy ride when he entered the race but he has proved a strong fundraiser, he’s said he might spend as much as $1 million of his own money and the establishment has rallied around him (I offered a detailed analysis of his candidacy here).

More candidates could get in, but for now we are heading towards a Schroder-Pike general election. Schroder should be competitive, but the district’s fundamentals make Pike the early favorite.

Gerlach is not even guaranteed the Republican nomination

When they learned that Kirk will run for Senate, Republicans could at least celebrate the fact that they suddenly had a shot at Illinois’s Senate race and Kirk made sure that the Republican field was open so he wouldn’t waste his House seat and potentially lose in a primary. But neither of these are consolations applicable to Pennsylvania.

Republicans already have two politicians who are expected to run for Governor: Attorney General Tom Corbett and former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan. Sure, Gerlach’s moderate credentials and his longtime political experience would help him appeal to independent voters and even right-leaning Democrats, but they will also hurt him in the GOP primary - not to mention that Corbett and Meehan both look like electable general election contenders.

So not only does Gerlach’s entry not dramatically improve the GOP’s prospect in the gubernatorial race, but Gerlach isn’t even sure of winning the Republican nomination!

Needless to say, Republicans would be very frustrated if Gerlach left them with such a vulnerable open seat and could not even make it to the gubernatorial general election. (That’s what happened to New Mexico’s Heather Wilson in 2008.)

Speaking of the gubernatorial race, there was some movement late last week that I did not notice until this morning: Auditor General Jack Wagner became the first Democrat to announce that he will run for Governor. Wagner, who is described as a social and fiscal conservative by The Patriot News, is the only statewide official considering a run for the Democratic nomination; he’s likely to face competition from the likes of Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and businessman Tom Knox. In short, it doesn’t look like the Democratic field is the most inspiring the party could dream up; compared to the certainty that he’ll face a tough House race, that probably makes a gubernatorial run more appealing for Gerlach.

Doug Pike challenges Gerlach: Can past writings doom a campaign?

Published
by
Taniel
on April 11, 2009
in PA-06
. 3 Comments

PA-06 was one of the DCCC’s biggest recruitment failures in the last cycle. In one of the most Democratic districts represented by a Republican, Rep. Jim Gerlach had barely survived the 2002, 2004 and 2006 cycles. Yet, no prominent Democrat emerged to take on the incumbent in 2008. Given Obama’s coattails, low-profile businessman Bob Roggio managed to come within 4% of Gerlach - imagine what a stronger contender could have done.

For now, Democrats have not been much more successful recruiting a strong candidate to run in 2010. But they finally got a contender this week: Douglas Pike, who served as an aide to Senator Tsongas in the 1980s before writing editorials for The Orlando Sentinel and serving on the editorial board of The Philadelphia Inquirer for 14 years. Examples based on a quick Nexis search: “We’ll lose if court rejects finance law,” a defense of campaign finance reform published in 03; or “Gephardt’s plan is irresponsible,” a 2002 piece in which Pike blasts the then-Democratic leader for proposing to combine increased spending with tax cuts:

Sure, some zealots insist that depriving government of tax revenue forces those rascals to cut their spending. That may work in Harrisburg, Pa., or Sacramento, Calif., but in the nation’s capital, where the debt is $6 trillion and rising, it’s a lie.

Pike’s background has surely made him familiar with a variety of issues that he will have to address on the campaign trail - and as such it can be an effective replacement for an elected official’s campaign experience. Yet, his years as a writing will also provide Republicans plenty of ammunition. There have to be at least a few controversial-seeming statements the GOP could unearth in all of articles that bear Pike’s byline. After all, all that is needed is a quote that can be taken out of context in a 30-second attack ad with ominous music.

On the other hand, it is debatable how successful Pike’s opponents would be if they were to use his past writings against him. In 2006, Republicans were ecstatic when Democrats nominated John Yarmuth to run against Kentucky’s Rep. Ann Northup, a perennial target. As a columnist, Yarmuth had a long trail of writings that the GOP sought to use against him. But Yarmuth ended up defeating Northup, who had survived against many top-tier Democrats in cycles past.

Sure, Yarmuth’s victory was primarily due to the blue wave that submerged the country. But other vulnerable Republican incumbents did survive that cycle and the point remains that Yarmuth’s columns did not end up damaging his credibility. That same year, Virginia’s Jim Webb found himself under attack for his novels’ graphic descriptions; the charges soon backfired and were ridiculed.

Some might say that Al Franken is a counter-example, as Minnesota Democrats’ Senate nominee found himself on the defensive last spring for an essay he wrote in Playboy years ago. Yet, his troubles partly stemmed from his own party’s failure to rally around him: As Republicans artfully launched the controversy before Franken had secured his party’s nomination, a number of prominent Democrats distanced themselves from the Senator and thus further fed the story - allowing Coleman to use clips of Democrats pounding in ads he released later.

Pike is also the son of a former nine-term U.S. representative; while that might explain why he is interested in politics, it is unlikely to provide him much ties to the current Democratic establishment since his father, who represented New York’s eastern Long Island rather than Pennsylvania, retired from Congress in 1978. More of an asset will be Pike’s wealth.

Pike has indicated that he plans to spend $1 million of his own money on the campaign - an obviously very consequential sum that guarantees that he remains a force to be reckoned with no matter which other Democrats jump in the race. Pike’s fortune, more than any other attribute, is likely to get the DCCC to take him seriously. After all, the national party and local committees are always looking for candidates who are rich enough to buy themselves a congressional seat (see Scott Murphy) - quite an unfortunate reality, especially considering that many politicians who come in office in such conditions, like Jon Corzine, are far from the most successful, qualified or popular of politicians.

One last note about PA-06: Gerlach might run for Governor in 2010. That would make PA-06 an open seat - and one of the Democrats’ top take-over opportunities in the country. If that happens, expect a large number of Democrats to consider running; otherwise, many might think it a better idea to wait until 2012, when redistricting could make the district even more inhospitable for Republicans.

Meet the “Undaunted Dozen”

Published
by
Taniel
on February 23, 2009
in CA-03, CA-44, DE-AL, FL-12, GOP-12, IL-10, IL-13, MI-11, MO-09, PA-06, PA-15, TX-32 and WA-08
. 9 Comments

Earlier this month, the DCCC launched radio ads targeting 28 House Republicans who had opposed the stimulus bill. Now, Democrats are ready to mount the next round of their offensive: Having come up with a list of just 12 representatives, they are blanketing their constituents with robocalls.

Here is the version that is airing in Thad McCotter’s MI-11:

Did you know Congressman Thad McCotter voted against President Obama’s economic recovery plan, endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce?  McCotter’s empty rhetoric can’t hide that he voted to raise the AMT tax on 22 million middle class Americans and against the largest tax cut in history.

Interestingly, the messages reverse the traditional political attacks and highlight Republicans’ failure to match conservative orthodoxy. How often do Democrats get to blast the GOP for voting against the Chamber of Commerce’s recommendations? And how often do Republicans find themselves criticized for voting “against the largest tax cut in history?”

The DCCC’s goal is to persuade voters that their Republican representatives are so determined to obstruct economy recovery that they are willing to oppose a plan that is supported by their traditional ally and that matches their traditional demands.

The 12 Republicans who are targeted make a very interesting list, as their political circumstances are vastly different. (Five of these names were not on the DCCC’s original list of 28 targets: Judy Biggert, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Michael Castle, Adam Putnam).

District Status 2008 pres. 2004 pres.
Biggert (IL-13) 54% Obama 55% Bush
Calvert (CA-44) narrow 08 victory 50% Obama 59% Bush
Castle (DE-AL) possibly retiring 62% Obama 53% Kerry
Dent (PA-15) 56% Obama 50-50
Gerlach (PA-06) narrow 08 victory, possibly retiring 58% Obama 52% Kerry
Kirk (IL-10) competitive ‘08 victory 61% Obama 53% Kerry
Luetkemeyer (MO-09) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory N/A 59% Bush
Lungren (CA-03) narrow ‘08 victory 49-49 58% Bush
McCotter (MI-11) 53% Obama 53% Bush
Putnam (FL-12) retiring 50% McCain 58% Bush
Reichert (WA-08) narrow ‘08 victory 57% Obama 51% Kerry
Sessions (TX-32) 53% McCain 60% Bush

The most interesting of the DCCC’s inclusions is undoubtedly FL-12’s Adam Putnam. The Republican lawmaker has already announced that he will not seek re-election to the House in 2010; he will run instead for Agriculture Commissioner, a statewide position. So why is the DCCC going after him?

The first reason is that FL-12 will be an open seat, and the DCCC is hoping to be able to contest it even if the district tilts Republican. Democrats are hoping that going after Putnam’s vote can, by extension, weaken the GOP brand and thus make their nominee’s job easier in 2010.

The second reason is that Putnam is an ambitious lawmaker who is transparently eying the 2014 gubernatorial race - and many think he might try to aim even higher. Democrats would thus love to take Putnam out now, when he is still running for down-the-ballot races. The race for Agriculture Commissioner might be very low-profile, but it is worth keeping an eye on it.

Three other fascinating choices are IL-13’s Judy Biggert, CA-44’s Ken Calvert and CA-03’s Dan Lungren. All three represent districts that George W. Bush won easily in 2004; yet, all three are now finding themselves sitting in swing districts that have shown their willingness to vote Democratic. And the reason that these three Republicans were chosen is that they all received unexpectedly low results last November in races that no one was paying attention to: Biggert got 53%, Calvert 52% and Lungren 50%. To DCCC strategists, that means that these incumbents lack the type of personal appeal that could protect them from their district’s blue drift.

—

Adding to this story’s many layers is Mitt Romney’s decision to donate $1000 to every single one of these Republicans’ re-election campaign (except Putnam’s, since he is not running for the House in ‘10). Calling these incumbents the “Undaunted Dozen,” Romney praised them for standing “for fiscal responsibility” and saying “no to spending abuse.” “We are committed to helping these courageous Republicans defend their position and fend off political attacks,” added Romney’s statement.

Romney’s move is obviously far more relevant to the GOP’s 2012 race than to the 2010 midterms. (Sorry Jaxx, but many Republicans are acting like the presidential race is already on!) I explained last week that Charlie Crist’s decision to support the stimulus could be an issue for him down the road, as an important test in the 2012 primary will which candidate stood up the most to Obama.

Romney no longer holds an elected office, so he cannot make a great show of rejecting some of the stimulus funds like Bobby Jindal or Mark Sanford. This is his way of ensuring that his name stays in the news and that people remember him as an opponent of Obama’s policies. After all, Romney was criticized by many in 2007-2008 for being a phony conservative; he now wants to avoid a similar fate in 2012.

House: Gerlach looks for way out, Chabot looks for way in

Published
by
Taniel
on February 6, 2009
in OH-01, PA-06 and PA-Gov
. 0 Comments

Yesterday, Rep. Jim Gerlach created an explanatory committee for a possible gubernatorial run in 2010. While he did insist that he had not made up his mind about which office to pursue, he has been sending signals that he intends to run statewide for months.

Gerlach’s retirement is one of the worst possible news for House Republicans. Philadelphia’s suburbs have been trending increasingly Democratic over the past decade, and Gerlach has been sitting on increasingly precarious territory. His district (PA-06) voted for John Kerry 52% to 48% in 2004; four years later, it swung to Obama by 13% as the Democrat crushed McCain 58% to 41%.

Needless to say, Democrats would be favored to pick-up the district if Gerlach were to leave his House seat for a statewide run, and the GOP cannot afford giving up seats this easily if it wants to get back on the offense in 2010. On the other hand, PA-06 is sure to be hotly contested even if Gerlach does run for re-election - and that is probably why the Republican is looking for a way out.

Gerlach won his first three elections (in 2002, 2004 and 2006) by a tight 51% to 49%. In 2008, he was expected to cruise to victory since Democrats had nominated the little-noticed Bob Roggio; but when all the votes got counted, Gerlach prevailed by a narrow 52% to 48% margin. That result must have shown Gerlach that it is only a matter of time until a stronger Democratic challenger channels the district’s lean to unseat him. And making matters worse is the prospect of the upcoming redistricting: Pennsylvania is slated to lose a seat, and Democrats would undoubtedly make sure that Gerlach’s district is redrawn to make his 2012 re-election impossible.

In other words: We should not be surprised that Gerlach is eying the gubernatorial mansion even if his odds of surviving the Republican primary are not that high. Pennsylvania has a closed primary so nominees tend to be decided by the GOP’s base - and that does not match with Gerlach’s moderate profile.

The fact that former Rep. and arch-conservative Pat Toomey is also looking to jump in the gubernatorial race makes it that much more difficult to imagine Gerlach prevail in a contest that Toomey would ensure is fought on ideological lines. Gerlach would need a few conservative candidates to divide up the conservative vote to allow Gerlach to prevail with a plurality.

—

The NRCC got better news from Ohio, where former Rep. Steve Chabot announced that he would run to regain his seat, OH-01,  in 2010. He was defeated last year by then-state Senator Steve Driehaus, 52.5% to 47.5%.

In his seven terms in Congress, Chabot faced (and beat back) a number of tough challenges, a sign that he knows the district and that he will be a top-tier candidate in 2010. But he will have to face the district’s changing political allegiance: OH-01 swung to the blue column by a dramatic 13% between 2004 and 2008, which is a larger change than the state at large. Bush won the district 51% to 49% five years ago, while Obama prevailed 55% to 44%.

This is partly explained by the district’s significant African-American population, which voted in greater numbers than usual. That 2008 was a presidential year was clearly a huge boost to Driehaus’s campaign, and Chabot is right to point out that Driehaus could face a difficult re-election race once he is deprived of Barack Obama’s coattails. OH-01 is one of the districts that will test the resilience of Obama’s coalition, especially if Chabot is running.

On the other hand, Republicans should not make the same error as they did in 2008, when they treated the victory of many freshmen Democrats as flukes that would quickly be undone once the environment changed. Sure, some of them were (TX-22, for instance), but Democrats elected in districts that were clearly becoming blue (like Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01) proved less vulnerable than the GOP anticipated.

Furthermore, running defeated politicians is very helpful in terms of name recognition, campaigning skills and fundraising abilities, but it is not necessarily the best path. A few attempted a similar comeback in the 2008 cycle, but none succeeded.

2010: Inouye plans re-election, Gerlach mulls statewide run

Published
by
Taniel
on December 11, 2008
in HI-Sen, PA-06 and PA-Gov
. 2 Comments

Tomorrow, the Minnesota canvassing board will convene to settle some of the outstanding issues in the Senate recount - what should be done with the “fifth pile” of wrongly rejected absentee ballots? what standards should the board use when considering the challenged ballots (a process that will be launched next week)? shall unanimity be required to decide a ballot’s face, or will a simple majority of the five-person board suffice?

Until then, we can concentrate on the 2010 races - and the latest retirement and recruitment news that is coming our way.

—

A few days after Kentucky’s Jim Bunning announced that he would run for re-election, another Senator who is rumored as a possible retiree - Hawaii’s Daniel Inouye - attempted to squash retirement rumors. Inouye, who will be 86 in 2010, is finishing his eight term - 48 years - so this would be an attempt to secure a ninth term. It is no wonder, then, that people are closely monitoring Inouye’s intentions.

If Inouye retires, Republicans are hoping to entice Governor Linda Lingle into the race (they have very few other credible contenders); if Inouye runs for re-election, it is far less likely that Lingle would run (though she might have little to lose, since she is term-limited out of the governor’s mansion in 2010).

Today, Inouye issued a forceful statement about his intentions. “Make no mistake, I am a candidate for re-election in 2010,” he wrote. “I am calling upon my friends and supporters to once again stand with me.” This does not settle anything, however, and we should certainly not speculating about a possible Inouye retirement.

As I explained two days ago, as long as an incumbent has not made definite plans, it is foolish to even hint at the possibility of retirement as that would only dry up fundraising and encourage challengers to jump in. Inouy’e

—

In Pennsylvania, meanwhile, the gubernatorial race made some news - briefly eclipsing the for now more high-profile senatorial contest. Incumbent Govenror Ed Rendell is term-limited, so the Keystone State will host one of the most important open seats of 2010.

Today, Republican Rep. Gerlach announced that he was mulling a run for the Republican nomination, predicting that the primary would see a crowded field of five or six contenders. Among other potential candidates is Attorney General Tom Corbett. Both parties have enough of a bench in Pennsylvania to guarantee a contested race.

A potential Gerlach candidacy would also be very important in the House battle: Gerlach represents a Democratic-trending district in Philadelphia’s suburbs (PA-06) that he narrowly won in 2002 before barely surviving in 2004 and 2006.

In 2008, Gerlach was supposedly facing a weak Democrat but he nonetheless drew an unexpectedly weak result, a testament to how difficult it is for any Republican to prevail in this district. At the same time, Gerlach survived while the rest of his state party collapsed (Democrats picked-up 5 House seats over the past two cycles while saving endangered incumbents in PA-11 and PA-12), a testament to Gerlach’s personal appeal.

To make matters worse, PA-06 has grown more Democratic over the past few years, along with the rest of Pennsylvania. All of this would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep PA-06 if Gerlach were to seek statewide office. (Update: A commentor has a thorough list of potential Democratic candidates in the district.)

More polls: Rasmussen finds competitive landscape, Kirk and Gerlach post big leads

Published
by
Taniel
on September 15, 2008
in CO-Pres, FL-08, FL-Pres, IL-10, MN-Sen, OH-Pres, PA-06, PA-Pres, VA-Pres, VA-Sen and WA-Gov
. 2 Comments

The day’s tracking polls are once again splitting - with Rasmussen and Gallup showing McCain leading by 2%, Research 2000 finding Obama leading by 3% and Diego Hotline finding a 1% lead for the Democrat. That, combined with this morning’s SUSA’s poll from Virginia showing Obama gaining 6% in one week, opened possibility that we would soon find more hints that McCain’s bounce was fading.

Rasmussen’s weekly release of 5 polls from the most crucial battleground states, however, do not point towards an Obama counter-bounce. In fact, Obama leads in none - though two are tied. But that doesn’t mean that his position has worsened. In fact, the lesson of these polls is that the race has gotten more competitive in four out of five states (VA, PA, OH and CO) with Obama gaining in VA and OH and McCain gaining in PA and CO.

Overall, Obama’s weakness among Democrats continues to haunt him. He has to get at least 80% of the Democratic vote - something he once again fails to do in Florida and Ohio. The independent vote varies from state to state. All Rasmussen’s polls were conducted on Sunday alone and all have a fairly large margin of error of 4,5%. That means that all these surveys except Florida’s are within the margin of error:

    • The race is tied at 48% in Virginia according to Rasmussen. McCain had a 2% lead last week. Here, both candidates have good party loyalty (90% and more) and are roughly tied among independents.
    • The race is tied at 47% in Pennsylvania in Rasmussen’s poll. Obama had a 2% lead last week. Both candidates have equivalent party loyalty, Obama trails widely among independents.
    • McCain leads 48% to 45% in Ohio in Rasmussen’s poll, an improvement for Obama who trailed by 7% last week. Obama leads by 21% among independents but only gets 78% of the Democratic vote (McCain gets 90% of the GOP vote). Last week, Obama had the same party loyalty but trailed widely among independents. A full 30% of respondents say they could still change their mind.
    • McCain is ahead 48% to 46% in Colorado in Rasmussen’s poll, a 5% gain over Obama’s 3% lead last week. Some of this change can be attributed to Ralph Nader shooting up to 3% (0% last week).
    • McCain leads 49% to 44% in Florida in Rasmussen’s poll, a 5% gain over last week’s tie. Obama leads by 14% among independents but only gets 70% of the Democratic vote.
    • McCain leads 49% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Ohio. The two are tied among independents. Obama’s weakness (surprise, surprise!) is among Democrats, as he only gets 77% in his party. Obama will also need to increase his margin among women (he only leads by 4%). SUSA’s June poll from Ohio had Obama leading by 2%; since then, McCain has increased his party loyalty but Obama has not.

    Four of these 5 states were won by Bush in 2004, so Obama certainly doesn’t need to win all of them - but it is difficult to imagine him getting to the White House without Pennsylvania. This is the first poll from PA since April to not find Obama leading, and it follows numerous other polls (starting with Quinnipiac) that have found a tightening race. Democrats were looking to have an easier time defending this state, and for a while it looked like that would be the case. No longer.

    Only Florida breaks towards McCain - confirming the GOP’s advantage in the Sunshine State (Rasmussen was the only recent FL poll to not find McCain leading by a sizable margin).

    Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

    • Coleman leads Franken 41% to 37% in a Star Tribune poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Independent candidate Dean Barkley gets 13%.
    • Warner leads Gilmore 57% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Virginia’s Senate race.
    • Gregoire leads Rossi 48% to 44% in an Elway poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race.
    • In FL-08, an internal poll for the Greyson campaign finds the Democrat leading Rep. Keller 44% to 40%. In this district Bush won by 12% in 2004, Obama and McCain are tied at 44%.
    • In PA-06, a district that was highly competitive over the past three cycles but which the GOP is now favored to retain, an internal poll for the Gerlach campaign finds the Republican incumbent crushing Bob Roggio 57% to 28%.
    • In IL-10, an internal poll for the Kirk campaign finds the Republican incumbent leading by an improbably large 51% to 29% against challenger Dan Seals. The poll has a large margin of error (5.6%) and a small sample (300 respondents).

    It’s difficult to know what to make of all these internal polls, many of which have improbable enough results (FL-08 and IL-10) that we would really like to see confirmation from an independent source. The Minnesota Senate race, meanwhile, continues to tighten, as most recent polls have shown that whatever advantage Coleman had built has melted. We will now have to monitor the Barkley factor, as the independent candidate is gaining strength.

    Down-ballot: DCCC moves to expand map and to block Jack Davis, the AMA turns against Senate Republicans

    Published
    by
    Taniel
    on July 2, 2008
    in IL-06, MS-Sen, NC-08, NC-10, NH-Sen, NY-26, OH-01, OH-02, PA-06, TX-Sen, Uncategorized and VA-02
    . 0 Comments

    With more than $40 million in the bank, the DCCC is not ruining itself by airing radio ads in 13 Republican-held districts to tie the GOP incumbents to big oil. But the list of districts Democrats have chosen to target is instructive of the depth of their offensive:

    • Expected seats: IL-06 (Rep. Roskam), NC-08 (Rep. Hayes), OH-01 (Rep. Chabot), OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt), VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
    • Third-tier at best: NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett), PA-03 (Rep. English), PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach), PA-15 (Rep. Dent), WV-02 (Rep. Capito)
    • Even less expected: CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray), NC-10 (Rep. McHenry), VA-05 (Rep. Goode)

    This is not the list of 13 races you would expect Democrats to target. The inclusion of CA-50, for instance, is surprising as no one has been talking much about that race over the past few years. The purpose of this buy, then, is obvious: the DCCC wants to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents, look at their reaction and prepare to poll their weakness in the coming weeks. The fact that it is a cheaper radio buy confirms that it does not commit Democrats to spend a lot of funds, but it reflects their determination to expand the map and put as many GOP incumbents as possible in danger. Note that however cheap this buy is, the NRCC does not have the luxury to spend money on non-essential expenses like these.

    The ad uses a President Bush impersenator that pretends to be calling the office of these congressmen to thank them for their support for Big Oil. The full script is available here. Here is just the part read by the Bush impersenator, excerpted from the ad running against Patrick McHenry:

    “Pattie…“W” here.

    “Wanted to thank you for continuing to support the Big Oil Energy Agenda.

    “‘Preciate you voting to keep giving billions in tax breaks to the big oil companies.

    “Sure, gasoline is over four bucks a gallon and the oil companies are making record profits, but what’s good for Big Oil is good for America, right?

    “I guess that’s why they call us the Grand OIL Party. Heh, heh, heh.

    “Seriously, Patrick, I know I can always count on you.

    “Gotta go. Bye now.

    The fact that the ad is so directly targeted at incumbents with voting records explains why the most obvious seats that Democrats are contesting are not on this list. After all, the most vulnerable GOP-held districts are open seats. Another race in which Democrats are trying to tie the incumbent to the unpopular president is Mississippi’s Senate race — hardly a state in which you would expect Democrats to feel confident making the election national! Bush will fundraise for endangered Sen. Wicker, and Democrats are using the opportunity to tie Wicker and McCain to the GOP brand. The party’s statement read:

    A high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.

    Remember that in March Republicans attempted to nationalize the special election in MS-01 by tying Travis Childers to Barack Obama. Two months later, Democrats are comfortable giving the GOP a taste of their own medecine in one of the reddest states in the country.

    Meanwhile, in NY-26, the DCCC is taking sides in the contested primary between Jon Powers and Jack Davis, the party’s 2006 candidate. As you might remember, Davis grabbed headlines last week when he won his Supreme Court case to ban the millionaire’s amendment in an effort to spend millions of his own money without being “discriminated against” and without any impediment to his attempts to suffocate Powers under massive amounts of his personal wealth. I am not one to advocate for the national parties to get too involved in primaries, but the DCCC thankfully decided to jump in on Powers’s behalf by adding him to their Red to Blue program before the primary. Powers will thus benefit from some of the DCCC’s funds and will be able to match Davis — almost as important as his beating the Republican.

    Finally, more bad news for the GOP comes from news that the American Medical Association, a longtime Republican ally, is now turning against Republican Senators for voting against a bill to halt cuts in Medicare reimbursements. The bill failed by only one vote (after the House approved it 355-59), and a number of GOP Senators who voted against it are now being targeted by Democrats and by the AMA. Among those who are up for re-election, we find Sens. Cornyn (TX), Sununu (NH), Wicker (MS), Cochran, Enzi and Barrasso. The first three are vulnerable this fall, and the fact that the AMA has gone up with what it is calling a “significant” buy should worry these incumbent Senators. CQ notes that Mississippi’s Ronnie Musgrove has been heavily campaigning on this issue, and New Hampshire is also a small enough state that third-party ad buys can impact the election.