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Weekly 2010 update: A surprisingly busy week

Published
by
Taniel
on November 8, 2009
in CT-Gov, FL-Gov, PA-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 3 Comments

In recent months, we had gotten used to a slower pace in statewide recruitment news but this past few saw a flurry of activity. In Arizona Governor Jan Brewer will seek re-election; Roxane Conlin will challenge Iowa’s Chuck Grassley; Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork to run for Governor in Minnesota; Carly Fiorina confirmed that she’ll challenge Barbara Boxer in the California Senate race; and Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff dropped his challenge to Bob Bennet, a big relief for the embattled senator.

In Connecticut, Ned Lamont formed an exploratory committee for the Governor’s race - a move that I for one did not see coming. Not only had Lamont opened the door to seeking a rematch against Joe Lieberman in 2012, but Democrats already have plenty of candidates in the race - starting with Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy. Could Lamont ride the good will he gained among liberal activists for taking on Lieberman in 2006 all the way to his party’s nod?

Another election in which the Democratic primary could unexpectedly get more crowded is Florida’s Governor’s race. CFO Alex Sink was considered the party’s presumptive nominee, but two new names surfaced this week. The first, McGillis Records CEO Darrin E. McGillis, doesn’t look like he has the profile to endanger Sink; but the second could attract contributions and media attention by virtue of his last name: Anthony Shriver, who had already considered running for governor in 2006, is the fourth member of the Kennedy dynasty to consider entering politics this year (after Caroline, Chris and Joe Kennedy).

In Maryland, a Republican candidate is starting to attract endorsements for his gubernatorial race: real estate broker Larry Hogan got the support of lawyer Mike Pappas, who dropped out of the race. This suggest the GOP establishment doesn’t think former Governor Bob Ehrlich will challenge Martin O’Malley, and Hogan could very well end up as the Republican nominee. In a blue state like Maryland, that could guarantee that O’Malley is a rare incumbent governor to coast to re-election.

In Oregon, the Republican field is still unsettled. Not only has Rep. Greg Walden still to make up his mind, but a new candidate could soon join businessman Allen Alley and former state Senator John Lim: Former NBA player Chris Dudley, who for a while played for the Portland Trail Blazers, formed an exploratory committee to seek the GOP nomination. At the very least, that could help Republicans compete with Democrats in terms of media coverage. Also in Oregon, a Republican entered the Senate race; but Dennis Hall will be no match for Senator Ron Wyden.

Finally, state Rep. Sam Rohrer formed an exploratory committee to consider joining Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race. Considered very conservative, Rohrer should have trouble winning a general election in this blue-leaning state. (On the other hand, a Republican ticket led by Toomey and Rohrer would cause massive turnout in the GOP base.) If Jim Gerlach and Tom Corbett go at each other too strong, it could leave an opening for Rohrer to clinch victory thanks to conservative mobilization; alternatively, it could help Gerlach win the nomination by dividing up the hard-right vote between Corbett and Rohrer.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Arizona Governor Jan Brewer
Rep. Denny Rehberg (MT-AL)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CA-Sen, GOP Carly Fiorina confirmed run
IA-Sen, Dem attorney Roxane Conlin will run
IL-Sen, Indie Eric Wallace drops out of GOP race, announces as indie
NH-Sen, GOP businessman Andrew Binnie announced run
attorney Ovide Lamontagne announced run
OR-Sen, GOP Dennis Hall is running
UT-Sen, GOP Attorney General Mark Shurtleff dropped out

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CT-Gov, Dem Ned Lamont formed exploratory committe
FL-Gov, Dem McGillis Records CEO Darrin E. McGillis is running
Anthony Shriver added to list
IL-Gov, GOP former Attorney General Jim Ryan is running
MD-Gov, GOP real estate broker Larry Hogan is running
lawyer Mike Pappas dropped out
MN-Gov, Dem Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork
NJ-Gov, GOP Chris Christie elected
OR-Sen, GOP former NBA player Chris Dudley formed exploratory cmtee
state Sen. Frank Morse ruled out run
PA-Sen, GOP state Rep. Sam Rohrer formed exploratory committee
VA-Gov, GOP Bob McDonnell elected
VT-Sen, Dem former state Senator Matt Dunne is running
state Senator Peter Shumlin added to list

Weekly 2010 update: Newsom, Wilson and Lawton shook up their state’s gubernatorial races

Published
by
Taniel
on November 2, 2009
in CO-Sen, recruitment and retirement
. 1 Comment

The chaos reigning in NY-23 bumped my weekly 2010 update from its Sunday slot, so here it comes on Monday morning. (The next 48 hours will obviously be devoted to New Jersey, New York, Maine and Virginia, as well as Washington and California, which are hosting important but lower-profile contests I have mostly stayed away from. Expect an election cheat sheet sometime tomorrow, followed by the usual Election Night coverage!)

Over the past 7 days, prominent politicians made news by announcing that they would not run for Governor: Gavin Newsom, Heather Wilson and Barbara Lawton were all facing tough odds, but their profile made them some of 2010’s major actors. Their decision to stay out of the cycle shakes up California, New Mexico and Wisconsin’s gubernatorial contests quite dramatically, as I detailed throughout the week.

Another state that saw a candidate - albeit a lower-profile one - drop out of the gubernatorial race is Minnesota. Now, that’s an extraordinary development in and of itself since we’ve gotten to used  to every Minnesota politician with any ambition deciding to run for Governor. With Republican state Rep. Paul Kohls’s exit, we’re down to… 15 candidates. Kohls’s decision could mark the start of a winnowing process: Straw polls now being held will decide which low-profile candidates are in a position to continue campaigning until springtime conventions; Kohls’s exit is linked to a poor performance at such a straw poll.

In Senate races, the week’s highest profile news was Christie Vilsack confirming she would not challenge Chuck Grassley in Iowa. We are now awaiting confirmation that Roxane Conlin will jump in the race. In far lower-profile news, lawyer William Bryk has announced he’ll challenge Idaho Senator Mike Crapo; that wouldn’t be news if it wasn’t for the fact that this guarantees Crapo’s re-election race will be more disputed than it was in 2004, when he ran entirely unopposed.

In Colorado, the NRSC was hoping former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton’s entrance would settle the GOP field but it’s done anything but. Not only is Ken Buck staying in, but former state Senator Tom Wiens is entering the race. He is prepared to spend half-a-million of his own money, which is certainly more than pocket-change. Since Norton is provoking some grumbling among the conservative base, Colorado could very well join Florida and New Hampshire as a site of the GOP’s growing civil war; we’ll have to see whether one candidate can position himself as Norton’s main alternative.

Another race in which the GOP field keeps growing is Arkansas. The latest to jump in is Stanley Reed, formerly the head of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and formerly a member of the University of Arkansas Board. By my count, Reed is Blanche Lincoln’s 7th Republican challenger  - and it’s not like his profile makes him any less of a credible contender than most of the others. The good news for the GOP is that there’s a two-round system here, so a weak candidate can’t just move on to the general election with 15% of the vote (which would otherwise technically be possible in 7-way race…).

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Rep. Danny Davis no longer sure sure to run for Cook County Board President

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former Arkansas Farm Bureau head Stanley Reed announced run
CO-Sen former state Senator Tom Wiens launched campaign
IA-Sen, Dem Christie Vilsack will not run
ID-Sen, Dem lawyer William Bryk announced run
SD-Sen, Dem Mark McGovern added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment: state Sen. Jason Atkinson

CA-Gov, Dem San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out
MN-Gov, GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls dropped out
NM-Gov, GOP former Rep. Heather Wilson will not run
SC-Gov, GOP Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer files paperwork
VT-Gov, Dem former state Senator Matt Dunne added
state Senator Peter Shumlin added
WI-Gov, Dem Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton dropped out

Weekly 2010 update: In statewide races, recruitment season is winding down

Published
by
Taniel
on October 25, 2009
in OR-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 1 Comment

As has been the case since early this summer, the political focus remains the health-care debate. Reports on the Senate’s merger negotiations and on Harry Reid’s unlikely emergence as a progressive counter to Barack Obama’s cool take on the public option have dominated conversation. While that does not mean major midterm stories did not unfold - in particular Sharron Angle’s entrance in Nevada’s Senate race - it is also noticeable that recruitment season in statewide contests is slowly winding down.

One of the few races in which both parties’ fields is still unsettled is Oregon’s open Governor’s race. On the Republican side, Rep. Greg Walden is not looking likely to jump in, and it looks increasingly unlikely that the GOP will manage to mount a top campaign here. This week, state Senator Jason Atkinson announced he was withdrawing from the race for personal reasons. That could in some ways help the GOP, as he is a social conservative who would have had trouble winning statewide in a blue state. But as a former statewide candidate, he had advantages over other Republicans in the race, whether entrepreneur Allen Alley and former state Senator Lim, who is 73. Atkinson’s withdrawal could lead to another conservative contender’s emergence, so the GOP field could change quite a bit; on the Democratic side, of course, we wait for Rep. Peter DeFazio’s decision.

In Massachussetts, Canton Selectman Robert Burr dropped out of the special election to fill Teddy Kennedy’s seat. That leaves state Senator Scott Brown as the presumptive GOP nominee, so whoever emerges out of December’s Democratic primary should prepare to face Brown. I am somewhat surprised that other Republicans did not enter the race: Sure, the state GOP has a thin bench, but there were some people who could have ran without wasting too much of their time since the election’s schedule is so compressed.

In Wisconsin, businessman Terrence Wall’s decision to challenge Senator Russ Feingold is a reminder that this is one Senate seat in which the NRSC hasn’t had much recruitment success, with far more prominent candidates passing on the race. In Maine, another Republican businessman (Les Otten) announced he would run for Governor; the GOP has no top-tier candidate for this open seat race, so Otten could very well emerge as the party’s nominee. He would be an underdog in the general election, but a Research 2000 poll released in September did find Otten performing better than other Republicans.

One race in which neither party is in need of contenders is Minnesota’s Governor’s race: The candidacy announcements of two state legislators (one from each party) pushes the number of those in the running to 15 - 8 Democrats and 7 Republicans! And we are still waiting to hear from former Senator Norm Coleman and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AZ-Sen, Dem Tucson City councilman Rodney Glassman added
CO-Sen, GOP former state Sen. Tom Wiens added
MA-Sen, GOP Canton Selectman Robert Burr dropped out
NV-Sen, GOP former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle announced run
UT-Sen, GOP Tim Bridgewater announced run
WI-Sen, GOP developer Terrence Wall announced run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment: state Sen. Jason Atkinson

ME-Gov, GOP businessman Les Otten announced run
MN-Gov, Dem former state Senator Steve Kelley announced run
MN-Gov, GOP state Rep. Mary Seifert announced run
OR-Gov, GOP state Sen. Jason Atkinson dropped out
former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley added to list
state Senator Frank Morse added to list
RI-Gov, GOP businessman Rory Smith announced run

Weekly 2010 update: Despite Wexler resignation, a dwindling number of potentially open seats

Published
by
Taniel
on October 18, 2009
in FL-19, recruitment and retirement
. 3 Comments

Rep. Corrinne Brown’s announcement that she will not run for Senate in Florida and potential retirees’ heavy fundraising continues to reduce the number of congressmen who might not run for re-election next year. Only 4 representatives remain on my list of those who should be watched closely - and while we will probably still get a few surprises, it seems more than likely we will have less open seats in the 2010 than we have recently: There were 32 and 31 retirements in 2006 and in 2008, and there are for now only 19 in the current cycle.

Those numbers do not include special elections, however, and another one just popped up on our radar screen this week: Rep. Robert Wexler unexpectedly announced he would resign to become the president of the Center for Middle East Peace & Economic Cooperation. Democrats are sure to hold on to FL-19, but the primary will be ideologically important: Wexler is a vocal member of the Progressive Caucus and liberals will want to keep their strength intact. (An important note: Wexler will resign in January, so House liberals will not lose a vote in the health care debate.)

The week’s most important statewide developments were Brown’s decision not to challenge Kendrick Meek for Florida’s Democratic nomination; Ryan Frazier’s dropping out of the Colorado Senate race to run for the House, a move that makes the GOP primary a showdown between Ken Buck and the establishment-backed Jane Norton; and Christie Vilsack stating her interest in challenging Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley.

Kansas Democrats lost one of their last remaining hopes to make either of the state’s open races somewhat interesting when party chairman Larry Gates became the latest to rule out a gubernatorial or Senate bid. The party’s utter failure to have built any type of bench despite Kathleen Sebelius’s 7 years as governor is truly stunning.

In Texas, state Senator Eliot Shapleigh opened the door to a gubernatorial run. Many Democrats are unsatisfied with their current field, headlined by Kinky Friedman and former Ambassador Tom Schieffer, a prominent Bush supporter; yet, it remains for now difficult to envision the winner of the Hutchison-Perry primary not winning the general election.

Indiana’s Senate race is another contest in which the challenging party’s prospects are low (most probably lower than in Texas). Some Republicans thought former state Rep. Dan Dumezich could at least make Evan Bayh work for his re-election; Dumezich just ruled out a bid, but Bayh still has to deal with state Sen. Marlin Stutzman.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. Robert Wexler (FL-19)
Moved from those to watch closely to plausible retirees Rep. Pat Tiberi (OH-12)
Will not retire Rep. Corrine Brown (FL-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CO-Sen, GOP councilman Ryan Frazier dropped out
FL-Sen, Dem Rep. Corrine Brown ruled out run
IA-Sen, Dem attorney Roxanne Conlin added to list
Christie Vilsack added to list
IN-Sen, GOP attorney, former state Rep. Dan Dumezich ruled out run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

KS-Gov, Dem party chairman Larry Gates will not run
former Lt. Gov. John Moore added to list
Herbert West is running
TX-Gov, Dem state Senator Eliot Shapleigh added to list

Weekly 2010 update: The one that brought good recruitment news to the GOP

Published
by
Taniel
on October 11, 2009
in IL-Gov, MI-06, recruitment and retirement
. 4 Comments

What a week this was for the GOP on the recruitment front: Mike Castle’s announcement that he’ll run for Senate single-handedly catapults Delaware at the top of 2010’s vulnerable seats, especially as long as Beau Biden doesn’t commit to the race.

If that was not enough to make this week one of the best of the year for the party’s midterm planners, former Iowa Governor Terry Branstad’s decision to seek his old job back made Democratic incumbent Chet Culver one of the most cycle’s most vulnerable governors. And the NRCC scored a number of recruitment coups as well, not only in South Carolina (where John Spratt’s vulnerability is debatable) but also in Nevada and Virginia, as I’ll write about later.

Democrats got quite significant a consolation: Castle retirement from the House gives them a huge opportunity, and the DCCC now has two near-sure pick-ups (LA-02 and DE-AL). But Republicans look to have avoided another tough open seat in Michigan: Based on speculation that Rep. Fred Upton might be considering leaving office, I had included him in my retirement watch but I got an email from his office confirming that he’ll be seeking re-election. MI-06, which voted for Obama by 7%, would have been a tough district for the NRCC to defend.

In Illinois, former Attorney General Jim Ryan took the first step towards joining a crowded GOP gubernatorial field by forming an an exploratory committee. Ryan has an electoral history bookmarked by defeats to Democrats who have recently been in the news: In 1990, he lost an AG race to Roland Burris. After winning that same position in 1994 and 1998, he lost the 2002 Governor’s race by 7% to Blagojevich.

While Ryan could be a stronger contender than other Republicans already running, he lost an open seat race in 2002 (a favorable year for the GOP) as a sitting Attorney General; can he hope to do better now that he’s been out of the public spotlight for 7 years? Since Ryan is still presenting himself as undecided about pulling the trigger on a run, I’ll wait for him to make up his mind before commenting further.

In Arizona, former Governor Fife Symington made it clear he would not challenge incumbent Jan Brewer in the GOP primary when he endorsed former party chair John Munger’s bid. As was obvious from his history and confirmed by recent polls, Symington would have been a disastrous general election candidate for Republicans so this is a relief for the RGA. It’s also a relief for Brewer critics, as too crowded a field of challengers would help her survive by dividing up the anti-incumbent vote.

In Minnesota, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman became a rare state politician to decline running for the open Governor’s race. His exit leaves the Democratic field at an already large 7, including the Speaker, a former Senator and numerous state legislators. The biggest shoe left to drop is Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, with recent rumors suggesting he will jump in the race in the coming weeks.

No surprise in Pennsylvania, where Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato finally announced he will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He joins Auditor General Jack Wagner and former Rep. Joe Hoeffel, with other Democrats (starting with Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty) still considering a run. Recent polls have shown Republican Attorney General Tom Corbett leading all of these Democrats, so the party has a lot of work to do to defend the governorship.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. Mike Castle (R, DE-AL)
Will not retire Rep. Fred Upton (R, MI-06)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

DE-Sen, GOP Rep. Mike Castle is running
FL-Sen, Dem former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre is running
VT-Sen, Dem Daniel Frielich is running

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AZ-Gov, GOP former party chair John Munger announced run
former Gov. Fife Symington will not run
IA-Gov, GOP former Gov. Terry Branstad formed committee
IL-Gov, GOP former AG Jim Ryan formed exploratory committee
MN-Gov, Dem St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman will not run
MN-Gov, Dem Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato announced run
WY-Gov, Dem state Senator Mike Massie added to list
WY-Gov, GOP state Speaker Colin Simpson exploratory committee

Weekly 2010 update: Dubie and Hanabusa decisions help shape gubernatorial fields in VT, HI

Published
by
Taniel
on October 4, 2009
in VT-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 1 Comment

As we enter the final months of 2009, the recruitment phase of the 2010 cycle is slowly drawing to a close - at least in statewide races, which is what occupies us in these weekly updates. It’s not surprising, then, that we have gotten relatively few major announcements recently.

The week’s highest-profile midterm development occurred in Nevada, where former party chairwoman Sue Lowden announced she’ll take on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Lowden might be transparently favored by the party establishment, but she’ll have to take on a crowded GOP field; I doubt it will make much of a difference who Republicans nominate since the race will largely hinge on whether Reid can improve his disastrous approval rating.

One important decision I did not cover was Vermont Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie jumping in the open Governor’s race. Ever since Governor Jim Douglas somewhat unexpectedly announced his retirement, Dubie had been looking like the GOP’s main hope of defending this governorship. Despite doubts among some state Republicans, many of the other potential contenders had said they would defer to Dubie’s decision so we can consider the matter of the GOP nomination closed.

Dubie’s chances in the general election largely rest on whether the Democratic Party and the Progressive Party can come to an governance agreement; as I explained a few weeks ago, progressives are certainly entitled to favorable terms considering they beat Democrats in the last gubernatorial election election’s and that one of the state’s senators is an independent. The Progressive Party has signaled it’ll need the Democratic nominee to support a certain number of positions, which could heighten the ideological stakes of Democratic primary; 3 candidates are already running, with 3 others considering the race.

In Hawaii, Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa announced this week she would run for HI-01 rather than for Governor. I will hopefully get a chance to discuss the consequences at the House level soon, but in the statewide race this essentially results in leaving Rep. Neil Abercrombie the sole major Democratic candidate committed to the race. Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann has formed an exploratory committee, and it looks like he’s the only Democrat who might still pose a problem for Abercrombie.

In Indiana, 33-year old state Senator Marlin Stutzman confirmed that he’ll challenge Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, who is as safe as can be. As we discussed before, Stutzman’s move is surely an attempt to build name recognition for future statewide contests - perhaps even the 2012 gubernatorial race. For Bayh to fall to Stutzman would require a red wave that would make 1994 look like child’s play. Democrats got a long shot contender of their own to take a step towards a run this week: In South Carolina, attorney Chad McGowan signaled he’s preparing to take on Jim DeMint, who is showing no obvious signs of vulnerability.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

IN-Sen, GOP Grant County Commissioner Mark Bardsley added to list
businessman Richard Behney is running
former state Rep. Dan Dumezich added to list
state Sen. Marlin Stutzman announced run
businessmen Will Weaver added to list
NH-Sen, GOP businessman Jim Bender formed exploratory
NV-Sen, GOP former party chairwoman Sue Lowden announced run
Mike Wiley is running
SC-Sen, Dem attorney Chad McGowan added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

HI-Gov, Dem Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa won’t run
IL-Gov, Dem state Rep. Jack Franks ruled out run
VT-Gov, Dems state Senator Susan Bartlett is running
former Sen. Matt Dunne added to list
Secretary of State Deb Markowitz is running
 Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Shumlin added
VT-Gov, GOP Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie announced run
Mark Snelling will run for Lieutenant Governor

Weekly 2010 update: Ron Kind’s decision and Jon Porter’s rumors dominate midterm news

Published
by
Taniel
on September 27, 2009
in WI-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 7 Comments

This past week was relatively quiet on the midterm front, and there certainly were no game-changing announcements. The highest-profile 2010 news was arguably Rep. Ron Kind’s decision to run for re-election. That led me to reflect on House Democrats’ ability to hold the number of open seats they need to defend to a minimum, but Kind’s move also has obvious consequences in Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race by solidifying Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton’s hold on the Democratic nomination; Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is the only politician who could make that race competitive, and he has yet to signal what he is thinking.

The contest that came closest to a radical makeover this week was Nevada’s Senate race as rumors suddenly erupted early this week that former Rep. Jon Porter was reconsidering his decision not to challenge Harry Reid. The GOP has been left with a B-list roster whose competitiveness entirely depends on Reid’s unpopularity. The senator’s numbers are dismal enough that it might very well not matter who Republican nominate, but there’s no question that recruiting Porter would have been a major get for the NRSC: It would ensure a strong nominee and potentially clear the primary field. Yet, the week ended as it had began: Porter reiterated that he would not run.

In other states, new GOP candidates jumped in already crowded races. In Arkansas, a bizarrely large list of low-profile Republicans are seeking to take advantage of Blanche Lincoln’s vulnerability and of the absence of a formidable GOP challenger: financial adviser Buddy Roggers became the sixth Republican to announce a run. In New Hampshire, it could become tough for conservatives to rally opposition to Kelly Ayotte if the field keeps getting more crowded; businessman William Bennie is the latest name to circulate as a potential candidate.

In Arizona, Governor Jan Brewer landed her first official primary opponent - an unsurprising development given that Brewer did was elevated to her position and is burdened by a low approval rating: Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker officially announced his candidacy. He should be a credible contender, though it seems fairly certain that other Republicans will still jump in. More surprisingly, there is now buzz that Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley could face a primary challenge from Prince George’s County Executive Wayne Curry; with few people betting on former Governor Bob Ehrlich attempting a comeback, Curry could be a more threatening challenger than anyone O’Malley might face in the general election.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Rep. Ron Kind (D, WI-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP financial adviser Buddy Rogers announced run
MA-Sen, Dem City Year head Alan Khazei announced run
MA-Sen, GOP/Indie Curt Schelling will not run
NH-Sen, GOP businessman William Binnie added to list
NV-Sen, GOP former Rep. Jon Porter reconsiders run, rules it out again

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AZ-Gov, GOP Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker announced run
MD-Gov, Dem Prince George’s Co. Exec. Wayne Curry added to list
PA-Gov, Dem ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel plans to run
OR-Gov, Dem County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson ruled out run
WI-Gov, Dem Rep. Ron Kind ruled out run

Weekly 2010 update: Shuffle in MA, confirmation of long-suspected news elsewhere

Published
by
Taniel
on September 20, 2009
in recruitment and retirement
. 2 Comments

First things first: I have succumbed to Twitter. After resisting for months, knowing that I could not afford to set up yet another all-consuming activity, I ended up activating my account. I waited to have a few tweets under my belt before publicizing it, and here we go: @taniel. Read, subscribe, forward and tweet away.

This week might have been politically full - the health care debate reached a pivotal point, NYC held its primaries, the right’s assault on ACORN reached fever pitch - but we have seen more intense days in terms of the 2010 midterms. The most important announcements were confirmation of news we already suspected: Sarah Steelman will not run for Senate while Peter Schiff will, Brian Sandoval and Jim Rex will run for Governor. More surprising were Linda McMahon’s jump in CT Senate race and the shuffling in MA’s special election, with Stephen Lynch’s exit and Steve Pagliuca and Alan Khazei’s entries.

One state that is not making any electoral news is Delaware. With Beau Biden set to return to civilian life on September 30th, he might soon face many questions about his 2010 plans though I would not expect any speedy announcement: Since Biden nor Mike Castle need no introduction to state voters, neither is finding it urgent to make their intentions known and we are all stuck waiting. There was a report over the summer that he might be unwilling to run if he needs to do so against Castle, but he certainly would not want to rule out a run in case the Republican is leaning against jumping in himself.

In Maryland, we still await former Governor Bob Ehrlich to decide whether he’ll challenge incumbent Martin O’Malley, but such a rematch is looking increasingly unlikely. Not only is there very little buzz around an Ehrlich comeback, but two Maryland Republicans who are close to Ehrlich are now positioning themselves for a run: businessman Lawrence Hogan and state Delegate Patrick McDonough. Both have said they would drop out if Ehrlich jumps in, but the fact that they are now making news themselves at the very least suggests that Ehrlich has given them no reason to think he will run.

In Oregon, former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury did not back down in the face of former Governor John Kitzhaber’s entrance. He pressed ahead this week, officially announcing his run and setting up a competitive Democratic primary. We still wait for Rep. Peter DeFazio to make up his mind, which he had said he would do after Labor Day.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CO-Sen, GOP attorney Luke Korkowski is running
CT-Sen, GOP WWE CEO Linda McMahon announced run
Peter Schiff announced run
MA-Sen, Dem Rep. Mike Capuano announced run
co-founder of City Year Alan Khazei is running
Rep. Stephen Lynch will not run
Bain managing director Steve Pagliuca announced run
MO-Sen, GOP former Treasurer Sarah Steelman will not run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

MD-Gov, GOP businessman Lawrence Hogan announced run
state Delegate Patrick McDonough added to list
ME-Gov, GOP businessman Les Otten added to list
ME-Gov, Dem state Senate President Elizabeth Mitchell is running
NV-Gov, GOP former AG and former judge Brian Sandoval announced run
OR-Gov, Dem former SoS Bill Bradbury confirmed run
SC-Gov, Dem Superintendent of Education Jim Rex announced run

Weekly 2010 update: Plenty of politicians announce long-awaited decisions

Published
by
Taniel
on September 13, 2009
in recruitment and retirement
. 10 Comments

Plenty of politicians whose decisions we were eagerly awaiting announced their 2010 decisions this week, shaking up a number of races in the process. Colorado Senator Michael Bennet got himself two high-profile opponents, one Democrat (Andrew Romanoff) and one Republican (Jane Norton). Massachusetts’s gubernatorial race heated up with the confirmation that Treasurer Tim Cahill will run as an independent.

In North Carolina, Democrats landed their first prominent challenger as SoS Elaine Marshall formed a campaign committee while Nevada Republicans landed yet another Senate contender - state Sen. Mark Amodei. Also in Nevada, state Speaker Barbara Buckley ruled out running for Governor, a boost to Rory Reid’s primary prospects. And there were yet more important news I failed to cover.

In Alaska, former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz announced he would challenge Governor Sean Parnell. Most of you are probably well aware of who Berkowitz since he was the Democratic nominee against Rep. Don Young in 2008. He spent the year leading in polls, only to fall short in one of Election Night’s few surprises. That loss is a testament to just how red Alaska is, and Berkowitz has even less of an opening next year since Parnell is not hampered by ethical problems. Yet, he is as credible a candidate as Democrats could have hoped for: He ran a competitive statewide race just last year, and we shall now see whether Alaska voters are as attached to the new Republican guard as to the old one (Young, Stevens).

In Vermont, Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie has yet to announce his intentions. If he runs, he will likely clear his party’s field but Republicans are already looking towards other options in case he does not. This week, two new names surfaced. One is House Minority Leader Patti Komline, the other is Auditor Tom Salmon. An interesting note about Salmon is that he just switched parties this week to become a Republican - an unusual move for a Northeastern politician.

In Oregon, finally, former Governor John Kitzhaber’s entry has changed much less than I expected among Democrats: Rep. Peter DeFazio is still saying that he is actively considering a race and former SoS Bill Bradbury is continuing to prepare his candidacy. Among Republicans, meanwhile, we keep getting new candidates: state Senators Jason Atkinson and John Lim have both announced they will run. Interestingly, both Republicans have ran statewide races before: Atkinson lost the nomination for the 2006 gubernatorial contest while Lim was the party’s nominee against Ron Wyden in the 1998 Senate race. He lost 64% to 31%.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, Green John Gray announced run
CO-Sen, Dem former Speaker Andrew Romanoff formed committee
CO-Sen, GOP former LG Jane Norton formed committee
MA-Sen, Dem Rep. Michael Capuano picked up paperwork
former Rep. Joe Kennedy ruled out run
Rep. Ed Markey ruled out run
former Rep. Marty Meehan ruled out run
MA-Sen, GOP state Senator Scott Brown announced run
Canton Selectman Bob Burr announced run
former Bush Chief of Staff Andy Card ruled out run
former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey ruled out run
NC-Sen, Dem SoS Elaine Marshall formed committee
NV-Sen, GOP state Senator Mark Amodei announced run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment: Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley

AK-Gov, Dem former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz announced run
AZ-Gov, GOP former Governor J. Fife Symington III added to list
MA-Gov, Indie Treasurer Timothy Cahill announced run
NE-Gov, Dem state Senator Tom White will not run
NH-Gov, GOP businessman Jack Kimball is running
state Senator Chuck Morse added to list
activist Karen Testerman added to list
NV-Gov, Dem Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley ruled out run
OR-Gov, GOP state Senator John Lim announced run
VT-Gov, GOP House Minority Leader Patti Komline added to list
Auditor Tom Salmon added to list (just switched parties)

Weekly 2010 update: Democrats eye OR, MA while GOP fields grow in AR, GA

Published
by
Taniel
on September 6, 2009
in recruitment and retirement
. 2 Comments

John Kitzhaber’s decision to seek his old job back is the most obviously consequential of the week’s midterm news, as it immediately shuffled the deck in Oregon’s gubernatorial race. Rep. Peter DeFazio has indicated he will make his plans known in the days ahead, so we should hear more from the Beaver State in the week ahead. In New York, meanwhile, Rep. Peter King pulled the plug on a Senate run, confirming the attrition of Kirsten Gillibrand’s potential opponents and depriving Democrats of a shot at his House seat.

In Massachusetts, Democrats started positioning themselves for the January 19th special election. Attorney General Martha Coakley and Rep. Stephen Lynch picked up paperwork while Rep. Jeff Tierney added his name to the list of potential contenders. I will have more on Massachusetts’s Democratic candidates in the days ahead, so let’s leave it at this for now.

The biggest electoral news I did not cover this was is state Senator Gilbert Baker’s decision to jump in the Arkansas Senate race. I spent enough time covering the GOP field in recent weeks that I did not see the need to reiterate my analysis, but there is no question this is an important development: Baker might very well be Blanche Lincoln’s strongest challenger yet, he narrowly led in a recent poll and his entry should guarantee that Arkansas hosts a competitive race. It will be interesting to see how the state’s Republican establishment deals with the primary between Baker and Curtis Coleman; Mike Huckabee, for instance, is close to both.

In Texas, Kinky Friedman announced he would run for Governor as a Democrat four years after reaching double-digits as an independent candidate. This would surely be a more consequential development if the winner of the Hutchison-Perry Republican primary were not heavily favored to win the general election, whatever Democrats do but Friedman would surely make the general election entertaining if he won the Democratic nomination against former Ambassador and former Bush supporter Tom Schieffer.

Finally, Vermont Republicans are continuing to look for a gubernatorial candidate - former Auditor Randy Brock and Mark Snelling are the latest to be added to the list - while Georgia Republicans have a plethora to choose from: state Senator Jeff Chapman’s candidacy announcement raises the number of declared contenders to a remarkable 7, including one U.S. representative, two statewide officials and three state legislators!

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Rep. Peter King (R, NY-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP state Senator Gilbert Baker will run
IA-Sen, GOP Bill Salier will not run
IL-Sen, Dem Chicago treasurer Stephanie Neely will not run
IN-Sen, GOP businessman Richard Behney announced run
MA-Sen, Dem AG Martha Coakley picked-up candidacy papers
Rep. Stephen Lynch picked-up candidacy papers
NY-Sen, GOP Rep. Peter King will not run
SC-Sen, Dem attorney Ashley Cooper added to list
state Senator Brad Hutto will not run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

GA-Sen, GOP state Senator Jeff Chapman announced run
activist Ray McBerry is running
OR-Gov, Dem former Governor John Kitzhaber announced run
OR-Gov, GOP state Senator Jason Atkinson will run
PA-Gov, Dem Scranton mayor Chris Doherty added to list
TX-Gov, Dem Kinky Friedman announced run
VT-Gov, GOP former Auditor Randy Brock added to list
Mark Snelling added to list

Weekly 2010 update: MA, VT, LA and CO find themselves in flux

Published
by
Taniel
on August 30, 2009
in IL-Sen, recruitment and retirement
. 2 Comments

A busy week on the midterm front leaves a number of races shuffled up. Massachusetts suddenly has a special election on the horizon; Vermont unexpectedly ended up with an open Governor’s race that is sparking the interest of three different parties; two Iowa congressmen announced they would not seek statewide office; Louisiana’s Senate race got interesting with Charlie Melancon’s entrance in the race; and Colorado’s took several turns with Bob Beauprez’s exit and still-to-be-confirmed Denver Post reports that Ken Buck will pull the plug on his campaign while Andrew Romanoff will challenge Senator Bennet in the Democratic primary.

More on Colorado’s latest developments, which would seriously alter the state’s political landscape if they came to pass, once we know a bit more about Romanoff and Buck’s plans; if the latter does exit the race, it would seem to confirm other reports that indicate former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is preparing to run for the Republican nomination.

One other important storyline I did not get to cover this week is Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman’s entry in the Illinois Senate race. This unexpected development makes the primary a 3-way race - just as it was expected to be before Schakowsky, Kennedy and Daley all pulled out. While Giannoulias remains the front-runner, Hoffman’s corruption-fighting and anti-machine credentials could play well in the state’s post-Blagojevich context - and we might hear much more about Blago in 2010 depending on whether a trial takes place. Also, Hoffman’s entry improves Cheryle Jackson’s prospects: As the contest’s only female and non-white candidate, she can hope for an opening - especially if Hoffman concentrates his attacks on Giannoulias.

In South Carolina, meanwhile, Attorney General Henry McMaster became the fourth Republican to announce he will run for Governor. With Lieutenant Governor André Bauer all but certain to enter the race, the primary could be a 5-way affair with 2 statewide officials (McMaster and Bauer), one congressman (Greshman Barrett) and two state legislators (Larry Grooms and Sanford ally Nikki Haley). In the backdrop, of course, are the various Sanford scandals that are unfolding. How will candidates manage that? in a crowded race, can Haley power herself to victory on the basis of Sanford loyalists? will Bauer’s attempts to take a harsher stance against Sanford hurt him or help him in the primary?

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Governor Jim Douglas (VT)
Rep. Charlie Melancon (LA-03)
Will not retire Rep. Bruce Braley (IA-01)
Rep. Steve King (IA-05)
Will not resign Rep. Bill Young (FL-10)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page: General Russell Honore

AR-Sen, Dem state Senator Bob Johnson added to list
CO-Sen, GOP former Rep. Bob Beauprez will not run
IL-Sen, Dem Rep. Bruce Braley will not run
IL-Sen, Dem Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman announced run
IL-Sen, GOP retired judge Don Lowery is running
LA-Sen, Dem GOP
 General Russell Honore added to list
LA-Sen, Dem state Sen. Erik LaFleur will not run
Rep. Charlie Melancon announced run
MA-Sen, Dem Rep. Michael Capuano added
Attorney General Martha Coakley added
Rep. William Delahunt added
Rep. Barney Frank added
Vicky Kennedy added
former Rep. Joseph P. Kennedy II
Rep. Stephen Lynch added
Rep. Edward Markey added
Rep. James McGovern added
University Chancellor and former Rep. Martin Meehan added
MA-Sen, GOP businessman Jeff Beatty added
former Ambassador Chris Egan
former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey
former Governor Mitt Romney will not run
former U.S. Attorney Mark Sullivan added
VA-Sen, GOP Governor Jim Douglas will not run

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

IA-Gov, GOP Rep. Steve King will not run
SC-Sen, GOP Attorney General Henry McMaster confirmed run
professor Brent Nelsen dropped out (back in July)
TX-Gov, GOP rancher Hank Gilbert announced run
VT-Gov, GOP Governor Jim Douglas announces retirement
Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie added to list

Weekly 2010 update: Kennedy, Krolicki head out of Senate picture as Chaffetz opens door

Published
by
Taniel
on August 22, 2009
in NV-Sen, recruitment and retirement
. 0 Comments

The 2010 landscape was certainly not shook up by any major announcements this week, with Chris Kennedy’s ruling out a statewide race coming closest to a high-profile decision. An arguably more consequential decision came in Nevada, where Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki announced he would seek re-election next year rather than challenge Senator Harry Reid.

While this is not a surprise - his December indictement on felony charges made it hard to see him as a credible Senate candidate - it’s easy to forget that Krolicki looked like one of his party’s top prospects as the cycle started. There was also the possibility that Krolicki could succeed at getting the indictement tossed out and thus maybe jump back on the Senate track. As such, this week’s announcement adds to the long series of bullets Reid has dodged this year.

Over in Utah, Rep. Jason Chaffetz is looking surprisingly ambitious. Barely more than a year has passed since he unseated an incumbent congressman in a Republican primary, but he looks to already have his sights set higher. With reports that he had reserved the URL “ChaffetzforSenate.com,” he insisted he did this just to avoid “some smart aleck go out there and try to get it.” Yet, he also refused to rule out the possibility that he might challenge Republican Senator Bob Bennett next year; Bennett is already facing an intra-party challenge by Attorney General Mark Shurtleff.

Finally, Rhode Island: The Governor’s race has been heading towards a two-way race between an undetermined Democratic nominee and former Senator Lincoln Chaffee, who is all but certain to run as an independent. The best case scenario for Democrats would be for the GOP to nominate a credible candidate of its own for Chaffee not to also be the de facto GOP nominee. Yet, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian’s decision not to join the race thins the list of potential Republican contenders further.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire/resign Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL-21)
Added to list of potential retirees Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R, UT-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CO-Sen, GOP former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton added to list
IL-Sen, Dem Chris Kennedy will not run
IL-Sen, GOP lawyer Pat Hughes announced run
NV-Sen, GOP Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki will not run
former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton added to list
UT-Sen, GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AZ-Gov, GOP Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker added to list
IL-Gov, Dem Chris Kennedy will not run
PA-Gov, Dem Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel added
RI-Gov, GOP Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian will not run
SC-Gov, Dem state House Minority Leader Harry Ott dropped out
UT-Gov, GOP Kirk Jowers will not run
state Senator Steve Urquhart added to list

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