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Down-ballot: Alaska votes, Biden runs and Smith bashes Bush

Published
by
Taniel
on August 26, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Sen, DE-Sen and OR-Sen
. 6 Comments

It’s Election Day in Alaska! The results of the Republican primaries will be very important in determining the outcome of the November elections. I wrote a more detailed look at the state of the Alaska GOP two weeks ago, but here is a quick summary of what is essentially a generational clash between incumbents who have been around for decades and a younger group of Republicans who present themselves as fiscally disciplined and ethically clean:

In the high-profile House primary, ethically challenged incumbent Rep. Don Young is facing a Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, boosted by Club for Growth (which is running tough-hitting ad like this one) and endorsed by Governor Palin. In the Senate primary, Senator Ted Stevens remains heavily favored despite his indictment and has aired ads to palliate his vulnerabilities.

The polls close at midnight, and Democrats wait for the results just as anxiously as Republicans. If Don Young survives Parnell’s challenge, the seat will be a probable pick-up given Young’s ethical problems; if Parnell prevails, his showdown with Ethan Berkowitz is sure to be tight, but the Republican would start with a narrow edge. In the Senate race, the Democrats’ dream scenario is for Ted Stevens to lose: Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is a strong candidate who would crush either of the two low-profile Republicans who might win tonight (Dave Cuddy and Vic Vickers). If Stevens survives, it will at least give Republicans the opportunity to beg him to drop off the ballot to be replaced with a stronger candidate.

The most interesting scenario would be for Young and Stevens to both win their primaries, as the GOP would probably be very attracted to the idea of switching Stevens for Parnell in the Senate race. That would of course require Stevens to cooperate, and for now he is showing no intention to.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s selection as Obama’s running mate was a sigh of relief for Senate Democrats, who would most probably have lost a seat had he tapped Jack Reed or Evan Bayh. But questions remained: Would Biden run again (as he is up for re-election in November)? If not, would Democrats be forced to find a replacement? Biden’s spokesperson answered that yesterday: The incumbent Senator will stay on the ballot, and he is a sure bet to prevail given that his opponent is a political commentator with little hope of winning. If Biden also wins the vice-presidency, he will then proceed to resign and the outgoing (Democratic) Governor will appoint his successor.

That leaves the number of seats Democrats have to win to reach a filibuster-proof majority at 9 (10 if they kick Lieberman out of their caucus).

Finally, some news out of Oregon’s Senate race, where Republican Senator Gordon Smith has been working to shore up his numbers among Democrats and independents for months. First came an ad featuring the endorsement of Democratic state lawmakers; then came two ads in which Smith embraced Barack Obama and John Kerry. Now comes a fourth ad, and perhaps the most effective to date:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOep3hVuG5U"]

By relying on clips from nightly news that all repeat that Gordon Smith stood up to the President, called him out on the war and broke ranks with his party, this ad make the Senator look like he has acted, voted and behaved like a maverick - rather than simply air ads in the months leading to an election claiming to be close to Democratic Senators. And the DSCC’s ads that point out that Smith has been a reliable Bush vote will now be contrasted to what news anchors (voices that voters surely trust more than they would trust announcers of political ads) are saying rather than simply what Gordon Smith’s campaign is responding.

We have not seen much polling of this race as of late, but for Smith to be releasing this many ad over such an extended period of time dissociating himself from Bush and associating himself with Democrats means that (1) internal polls are telling him that he is increasing his cross-over appeals and should keep his strategy going or/and that (2) internal polls are telling him that he has a lot to worry about from his party label and his association with an unpopular President. After all, Smith’s main draw this election year is his party label and he is taking steps to address that.

Senate: SEIU, DSCC attack GOP incumbents, while Mark Udall struggles on energy

Published
by
Taniel
on August 15, 2008
in Ads, CO-Sen, NC-Sen, NH-Sen and OR-Sen
. 4 Comments

A number of Senate challengers are financially trailing their opponents, putting the pressure on others - whether the DSCC or independent groups - to weaken the incumbent.

This has become a particularly urgent task in Oregon, where Senator Gordon Smith has been releasing ad after ad. Some are positive, touting his bipartisan credentials, and some are harsh attacks. This week, Smith released its second ad (you can watch it here) hitting Merkley for his spending redecorating the state House. (Smith released an ad on the same topic just last week.)

Smith’s strategy is clear: His biggest vulnerability is his party label in a year in which the electorate is fed up with the GOP and wants turnover. By tagging Merkley with what voters are now associating with Republicans (overspending, hubris, questionable ethics), Smith is hoping to escape any blue tsunami.

Since Merkley does not have enough funds to mount a counter-offensive, the DSCC had to rush to his help last week, in a $850,000 ad buy hitting Smith for his association with President Bush. Today, it is SEIU’s turn to get involved and do what Merkley cannot (yet) do. The ad uses a recipe we are by now used to - tying a Republican incumbent to the unpopular president, especially based on his support Big Oil and “drug corporations” - to undermine Smith’s effort to portray himself as a maverick. SEIU is spending $500,000 on this ad buy - a significant sum:

SEIU is airing another ad in New Hampshire (you can view it here), focusing on drug prices and accusing Senator Sununu of having taken $200,000 worth of contributions from drug companies and has voted against the interests of struggling families. While Jeanne Shaheen is financially viable, Sununu is sitting on top of a massive war chest that he is reserving for a big post-Labor Day advertisement blitz, making outside investments key to blunting any impact Sununu’s late push might have. And SEIU is spending $600,000 on this ad!

In North Carolina (another race in which the GOP incumbent is better-funded than her rival), the DSCC continues its commitment to weakening Elizabeth Dole with a second ad that focuses on her ineffectiveness:

The ad features two older men in rocking chairs discussing Dole’s role in Washington: “I’m telling you, Liddy Dole is 93… She ranks 93rd in effectiveness.” To which the other man answers that she is 92 - as she votes with Bush 92% of the time. The ad is an explicit hit on Dole’s age (she is McCain’s age, 20 years younger than the “Dole is 93″ suggests but still a generation above Kay Hagan), no matter what Democrats answer, and it seems to me a silly effort - just as the DSCC’s previous ad. On the other hand, perhaps it is necessary for Democrats to convince voters that Dole does not have that much clout in Washington, as the perception that she has stature in DC (and can thus help the state) is surely one of her main advantages.

Finally, a note about the Colorado Senate race. We have long been wondering what is preventing Mark Udall from gaining the clear edge many were expecting him to have built by now - and one explanation is the big role energy issues have played in this contest. Udall has long been known as one of the leading congressional conservationists, casting him in a role that is looking less enviable today than it was just a few months ago. As many Democrats are starting to rally GOP rhetoric on offshore drilling in the face of public pressure, Udall has been in an increasingly difficult position, and the GOP has pounced on the issue.

This week, Udall decided to do what he could to put energy issues behind him - and organized a press conference with Senator Salazar in which he reversed himself and endorsed offshore drilling! It is difficult to know, of course, how the electorate might perceive this - will Udall be able to escape Republican attacks on the issue? Or will this make him look like an opportunistic flip-flopper? This is very much a damn if you do, damn if you don’t situation, but we have known for a while now that energy had become dangerous ground for Democrats. And it might be different for politicians like Obama and McCain to reverse their position on drilling and for someone like Udall whose political identity is more closely associated with conservationism.

Monday polls: Obama ahead in CO, IA, OR; Smith, Warner and M. Udall lead Senate races

Published
by
Taniel
on August 11, 2008
in CO-Pres, CO-Sen, IA-Pres, IA-Sen, MI-Sen, MO-Gov, OR-Pres, OR-Sen, VA-Pres and VA-Sen
. 3 Comments

This has been a good polling day, as almost every survey that was been released (especially on the presidential side) came from a crucial battleground state:

  • In Virginia (polling history), SUSA has the two candidates locked in a toss-up, with McCain at 48% compared to Obama’s 47%. McCain leads among whites by 19% - which means Obama is improving on Kerry’s showing by 5%.
  • In Iowa, Obama is narrowly ahead in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 46% to 41% (49% to 44% with leaners). Last month, Obama was ahead by 9%.
  • In Oregon (polling history), Obama holds on to a solid lead in Rasmussen, 47% to 37% (52% to 42% with leaners). He led by 9% last month.
  • A national poll released by YouPoll/The Economist has Obama leading 42% to 39% - the same margin he led by in July.

All four of the state polls come from crucial battleground and confirm what we have known from some time (apart from Ohio and Florida polls, surveys have been quite consistent over the past few months!). Obama seems to be safer than past Democratic nominees in Oregon, but also in Iowa: The only poll in which McCain ever led Obama in this 2004 Bush state was a survey released in… January 2007, and even then the Republican was only ahead by 1%. While this latest poll has a slightly tightening margin, Obama’s superior ground game in Iowa (inherited from the caucuses) should boost his total by several points.

Until July 24th, Colorado shared Iowa’s distinction as a red state in which McCain had never led. But Obama’s narrow lead in this state has been consistent, with the Democrat holding an advantage hovering around the margin of error. PPP’s latest poll is just further confirmation of that trend. But consider how close Obama would get with just IA and CO - just one EV away from a tie, making every other state must-wins for the McCain campaign, especially large ones like Virginia which seems to have become the ultimate battleground of 2008. Consider that there hasn’t been a single Virginia poll with either candidate leading by more than 2% since Obama wrapped up the nomination.

Meanwhile, we got three important down-the-ballot polls:

  • In the Oregon Senate race (polling history), the July Rasmussen poll was the first (and so far only) poll to find Merkley ahead. This month, Rasmussen finds Smith with the lead, 47% to 39%. With leaners, the margin is 50% to 44%. Merkley’s weak point is the Democratic vote, as he only gets 69% of the vote.
  • In the Colorado Senate race (polling history), it is PPP’s turn to find a slightly tightening race, with Rep. Udall leading former Rep. Schaffer 47% to 41% - down from a 9% lead last month.
  • In Missouri, meanwhile, Rasmussen released its first poll since Kenny Hulshof won the Republican primary: There is no primary bounce for the GOP congressman, who trails Attorney General Jay Nixon 51% to 39% - up one point since the July poll.
  • In Virginia, no surprises in the Senate race as Mark Warner is marching towards a sure pick-up, leading 58% to 34% against Jim Gilmore in SUSA’s poll.
  • Rasmussen also released two less important Senate polls, finding Democratic Sens Harkin and Levin comfortably beating their Republican challengers in Iowa and Michigan.

PPP is the third institute in a row to find Udall losing ground in the Colorado Senate race (after Rasmussen and Quinnipiac) but the election leans towards the Democrat. In fact, the contest has been tight for much of the past year, with Udall opening a slight lead only late this spring. Given that this is an open seat in a swing state in a Democratic year, Udall was expected to have a more comfortable lead - but his advantage is at least consistent.

In Oregon, Gordon Smith has been running an aggressive ad campaign seeking to highlight his moderate credentials and win the support of Democrats and independents. This is the second poll in a row (after SUSA’s poll last week) to find Merkley’s numbers low among Democrats and suggesting Smith’s strategy is working. Merkley has been unable to respond as much as he should as his financial situation is weak (though the DSCC is getting involved). Note, however, that we should not take Rasmussen’s poll as a sign of a bounce in Merkley’s direction as that July poll was somewhat of an outlier.

Beyond the stakes of controlling Missouri’s gubernatorial mansion (which will also matter at the federal level, since Missouri is projected to lose a House seat in the 2010 census and the Governor will have a say in the redistricting process), I believe the state of the Nixon-Hulshof race will also tell us a lot about the presidential election. This is an open seat with two solid candidates. And while it is true that Nixon started campaigning years ago, that alone does not explain the large lead he has opened against Hulshof. That a Democratic non-incumbent is leading by double-digit in this red-leaning state confirms how dismal the environment is for the state GOP and that is sure to have an impact on the Obama-McCain contest.

Wednesday polls: Obama ahead in 3 national polls, Sens. Smith and Lautenberg open big leads

Published
by
Taniel
on August 6, 2008
in FL-Pres, IL-06, LA-04, NJ-Sen, Nat-Poll, OH-15, OR-Sen, WA-Gov and WA-Pres
. 9 Comments

The presidential campaigns were engaged in such a furious ad war yesterday that my day was taken up monitoring the newest ads they were releasing - and it’s been 2 days since my last polling roundup. So here we go. Not many polls were released in the interval, and here are the five six presidential polls of the past two days, including 3 national polls finding the same margin for Obama (5-6%):

  • [Update: CBS News just released its national poll, finding Obama leading 45% to 39% - the same margin as last month. Voters name the economy as their top issue, 2:1 over Iraq. Obama's supporters are "three times more likely to be enthusiastic" than McCain's - something that could have a key impact on the election. CBS also talked to the undecided voters from its July polls and found that they were still undecided and that they were now less interested in the campaign.]
  • The AP-Ipsos national poll, released yesterday, finds Obama ahead 47% to 41%.
  • The Time national poll, released today, has Obama ahead 46% to 41% - the same margin as late June. The problem for McCain: Bush’s approval rating is at 29%, and McCain only gets 20% among those who disapprove of the president. The problem for Obama: Voters trust his opponent more on the issues. Obama has a 4% advantage on the economy; McCain has a 15% advantage on Iraq and 27% on terrorism. Another key difference: Obama’s supporters are much more enthusiastic, just like in the CBS poll.
  • In Florida (polling history), PPP finds a 5% swing towards McCain, who is now narrowly ahead 47% to 44%.
  • In New Jersey (polling history), Rasmussen finds Obama expanding his lead from 5% to a 48% to 40% margin (52% to 42% when leaners are included).

None of these polls find surprising results. At the national level, there have been two national polls (Gallup and Zogby) as well as two days of Rasmussen tracking to find McCain narrowly ahead, but most surveys still find a narrow Obama lead, somewhere in the low-to-mid single digits. The latest tracking polls (+1 Obama in Rasmussen, +2 Obama in Gallup) confirm that the race has been remarkably stable since the beginning of June.

One state in which numbers have moved, however, is Florida. This is the third straight poll to find a small trendline in favor of McCain (after Quinnipiac and SUSA) but McCain’s lead is within the margin of error and the only thing we should remember at this point of the campaign is that Florida is perhaps the only state in which the two candidates keep exchanging the lead with remarkable regularity. Since June 18th (when Obama was ahead in his first FL poll), Obama and McCain have each led in 6 state surveys. Compare that to other states where the margins are often within the MoE but where a candidate generally comes ahead, whether New Mexico and New Hampshire (all Obama leads, albeit narrow ones), Ohio (McCain has only been ahead in Rasmussen, twice), Missouri (Obama has only been ahead in Research 2000) and Colorado (McCain has only been ahead in Quinnipiac, once).

On to down-the-ballot surveys:

  • In Oregon’s Senate race, SUSA finds a big lead for Senator Gordon Smith - 49% to 37%. The big problem for Jeff Merkley is that 28% of Democrats are crossing-over to vote for the Republican incumbent.
  • In the Washington gubernatorial race, Elway shows Christine Gregoire with her first substantial lead: 52% to 36% - up 8%.
  • In the New Jersey Senate race, Rasmussen finds Lautenberg building on his lead, now ahead 51% to 33% against Frank Zimmer. Lautenberg’s favorability rating isn’t great (48% to 45%), but this is New Jersey and his opponent’s isn’t much better (37% to 41%).
  • In OH-15, the two candidates are locked in a toss-up in a SUSA poll. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy gets 47% to 44% for Steve Stivers.
  • In IL-06, an internal poll for Rep. Roskam shows the GOP incumbent crushing his opponent, Jill Morgenthaler, 59% to 29%. In a district Bush carried by 6% in 2004, Obama is ahead 49% to 41%.
  • In LA-04, an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche - the DA of the county in which the district is located - finds him ahead by double-digit against all 3 of his potential competitors.

The last Oregon poll to be released was a mid-July Rasmussen survey that gave Merkley his first lead of the campaign. The SUSA poll is worrisome for Democrats, however, because its internal polls correspond to their greatest fear that Gordon Smith’s last few ads touting his bipartisan credentials and his ties with John Kerry and Barack Obama might be working at offsetting the year’s Democratic lean. Smith has much more cash-on-hand than his Democratic opponent, and the DSCC might have to up its investment to help Merkley get more than 68% of his party’s vote.

A few notes on the House races, starting with IL-06 which was one of the most expensive races in 2006 (Roskam won by 2%) but which looks like it will be much less competitive this time around. This is an internal poll, and Roskam’s margin might be overstated, but the incumbent’s large lead is not a surprise. LA-04, however, is a conservative district (Bush got 59% of the vote), but Democrats have been upbeat about their chances to pick up this district following Cazayoux’s win in more Republican LA-06 and MS-01. Carmouche’s advantage in early polls may be amplified by his good name recognition, and we will need to see independent surveys. At the very least it seems clear that the GOP ought to worry about this seat.

Finally, OH-15 was supposed to be one of the Democrats’ strongest pick-up opportunities when the Republican incumbent announced she was retiring last year. Kilroy came close in 2006 and she seemed to be favored in her second attempt. But the GOP is as happy with state Senator Stivers as with any of its candidates this cycle and they point out that Kilroy isn’t the strongest candidate. She was favored to win in 2006 and her loss was a surprise, and Republicans are getting hopeful that they can snatch victory once again. SUSA’s poll suggest the race is closer than we would have expected it to be a few months ago.

Congressional ad watch: Smith and Landrieu attack opponents, candidates introduce themselves

Published
by
Taniel
on August 5, 2008
in Ads, ID-Sen, LA-Sen, ME-Sen, NC-08, OR-Sen, SD-Sen and WA-08
. 0 Comments

To an unusual degree, posts today have focused on new TV spots - from Obama, Franken and McCain - so let’s continue in that vein with this must-see response to McCain by Paris Hilton (yes, it’s real). “He’s the oldest celebrity in the world… but is he ready to lead?” asks the spot in an obvious parody of McCain’s “celeb” ad. Hilton goes on to call McCain the “very old” “wrinkly white-haired dude” and she proposes her unexpectedly articulate energy policy!

Meanwhile, and more seriously: In Oregon, the past few ads released by Gordon Smith have touted the Senator’s bipartisan credentials to appeal to independents, though Smith also released attack ads in July accusing Merkley of wanting to raise taxes. The DSCC replied with an ad hitting Smith over energy issues after an earlier ad tied the incumbent to President Bush. Now, Smith is out with a negative ad that accuses Merkley of wasting taxpayer money redecorating the offices in the legislature, even attaching price tags to different furniture items:

Merkley has little money to go on air (this is one race in which cash-on-hand disparity matters) and Smith is taking the opportunity to define the still-unknown Democrat as a tax-and-spend liberal. In July, he released ads arguing that Merkley likes taxes… and here is the complementary charge that he likes to spend. This ad looks like a caricature, and that’s because the “tax-and-spend liberal” figure has become such a staple of GOP ads. They seem (and are) silly, but viewers are used enough to the tax-and-spend attack that the overarching narrative becomes part of the political conversation. How well they succeed will depend on whether Merkley has the resources to respond before Smith succeeds in defining him. The DSCC is committed to the race, but can only do so much work.

In Louisiana, meanwhile, both candidates released ads this week. On the one side, Republican John Kennedy, trying to run as a reformer. His new and somewhat humorous ad (you can watch it here) says he will get Congress to spend less because… he is personally cheap. The ad shows him saving pennies and bringing his brown bag lunch to the office: “One leader is so tight, he squeaks,” says the ad, which also reviews Kennedy’s record. Senator Mary Landrieu has another idea on how to introduce Kennedy to voters: attack him for his flip-flops, party switch and for being a… liberal! Landrieu notes that Kennedy ran for AG as a Democrat, endorsed Kerry in 2004 and that Republicans called him a liberal during his Senate campaign:

Landrieu’s goal to (1) undermine any honest reformer approach Kennedy might try to portray and (2) take away any enthusiasm conservatives might have for Kennedy. Landrieu is the only truly endangered incumbent Democrat this year, and her main obstacle is the red-lean of the state she represents. If she convinces voters that her opponent isn’t a Republican, however, it might offset the unfavorable terrain she must fight on.

In other Senate advertising, two incumbents are airing positive ads. In Maine, Susan Collins ad on energy (you can watch it here) confirms that all ads on this topic could be aired by just about everyone, from either party, and that most candidates endorse the same lofty goals. This is what makes the energy issue appealing to so many candidates: it allows them to look centrist and pragmatist - two adjectives Collins needs as a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state.

Then, there is South Dakota: A year ago, we weren’t even sure if Tim Johnson would run for re-election. Now, he is facing minor opposition in what is looking like an easy re-election race. But Johnson’s ads are still interesting because they feature a candidate still struggling with health issues. In fact, Johnson’s opening ad - released last week (you can watch it here) - was entirely devoted to his health, with the Senator admitting that he was still working on his speech. Yesterday, he unveiled the second part of his advertising campaign (you can watch it here) by highlighting his accomplishments since he “came back to the Senate.” The ad claims Johnson has not missed a single vote.

Moving on, we have two ads with a very similar message by two Democrats running in red areas. In Idaho, Larry LaRocco’s ad (you can watch it here) reviews the problems the country is facing - jobs, inflation - and calls for “change.” In NC-08, repeat candidate Larry Kissell airs his first ad (view it here) against Rep. Hayes. “We cannot afford two more years of this,” argues the Democrat, speaking directly to the camera and citing rising oil prices and lost jobs. He calls for “a new voice.” The distrust in the GOP is the main reason Democrats have a chance in states and districts like these, making these calls for generic “change” the logical type of ad they should run.

In WA-08, finally, Darcy Burner is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. That allowed her to release a 60-second biographical ad (watch it here) highlighting, among other things, her life story, her brother serving in Iraq, her preparing a plan to get the US out of Iraq and her work on the Chinese toy issue. The 2006 race took some nasty terms, and Burner was attacked by her opponent for her inexperience. That she can afford a 60-second ad (with a much larger scope) is a good way for her to reintroduce herself to voters and start inoculating herself against those same attacks by highlighting substantive policy work she has done.

Down-ballot: DSCC attacks Dole and Smith, while Stevens sinks and MO-06 tightens

Published
by
Taniel
on August 1, 2008
in AK-Sen, MO-06, MO-Gov, NC-Sen, OR-Sen and TX-Sen
. 2 Comments

In mid-July, news emerged that the DSCC had reserved up to $6 million of air time in North Carolina from September onward, in an effort to make Senator Dole the Democrats’ 9th target. We soon learned that a similar investment was being made in Maine and that the DSCC had already started airing ads in Mississippi on behalf of Ronnie Musgrove. Now, it appears that the DSCC is not even waiting for the fall in North Carolina, as it bought $400,000 worth of advertising to be spent over 11 days (from today to August 11th):

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByDv0hTP4Jc"]

The ad notes that an “effectiveness ranking” had placed Dole in 93rd position. “Elizabeth Dole, after 40 years in Washington, not as effective as you might think,” is the ad’s tag line: “She can’t fix gas prices from 93rd place, or create jobs, and she sure hasn’t fixed immigration from 93rd place.” The ad is a bit misleading: Dole might have been in D.C for a long time, but she has only been in the Senate for 6 years - and seniority counts for a lot when we are talking about legislative power. And it is not necessarily a convincing argument that a new Senator with even less seniority would yield more power in the chamber.

On the other hand, NC remains a conservative-leaning state and Dole’s profile is not that of an extremist, so Democrats have to hit Dole on process issues rather than try to connect her to Bush or portray her as out-of-touch. Dole remains vulnerable, as was demonstrated by the long series of polls released throughout May finding a toss-up race between Dole and Kay Hagan. It took Dole’s running a wave of ads for her to get back on top. The Democrats’ gambit here is that an incumbent who needs a big media buy to reclaim the lead is weak and can just as easily lose it back. Live by ads, die by ads - that’s why the DSCC is spending so much money here.

The same is true in OR. The DSCC is answering Gordon Smith’s latest ad (which I described this morning) with an attack ad that is devoted to (what else) energy issues. Note that the situation is similar to that in Mississippi: the incumbent has a lot of cash and is already running ads, whereas Merkley has financial difficulties.

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SSdQKPnsls]

“The oil and gas industry has given Gordon Smith’s campaign nearly three hundred thousand dollars,” claims the ad, exhibiting these proofs of Smith’s ties “to big oil.” The ad’s visuals are used by countless other candidates from both parties right now, from the very top (McCain against Obama) to House races (an independent group against Musgrave), to suggest that the price of oil is rising because of a candidate’s actions or inaction. The goal is to prevent Smith for accumulating good will among Democrats and independents with his maverick-looking ads.

Meanwhile, the day’s down-the-ballot polls include Ivan Moore’s latest delivery from Alaska, which was in the field on Wednesday and Thursday - in the immediate aftermath of Stevens’ indictment:

  • Begich now leads by a staggering 56% to 35%. In Ivan Moore’s July 22nd poll, Begich was already ahead, 51% to 43%. Moore also polled the GOP primary, where Stevens still appears solid, leading against real estate developer Cuddy 59% to 19% (Stevens got 70% a week prior). Wealthy businessman Vickers does not (yet) get much support.
  • In North Carolina’s Senate race, Research 2000’s latest poll finds Elizabeth Dole leading 50% to 42%. The previous poll of the race was taken in late April, before the Hagan bounce of early May, so it is not a useful trendline point.
  • In the Texas Senate race, Senator Cornyn is now ahead 47% to 37% in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 50% to 39% when leaners are included. In early July, he was ahead by 13% and 17% in June - though the margin was only 4% in May (other polling institutes found a similarly tight margin at the time).
  • In MO-06, Rep. Sam Graves has lost his lead against Kay Barnes and is now only ahead 48% to 44% in SUSA’s latest poll. In May, Graves led by 10%.
  • Finally, SUSA also polled Missouri’s gubernatorial race and finds the race tightening as we approach the GOP primary. Jay Nixon leads Kenny Hulshof 48% to 42% and Sarah Steelman 50% to 41%. In May, he led by 24% and 25% respectively.

The Moore poll finds Stevens in even worse shape than yesterday’s Rasmussen poll; but it suggests that Stevens has a chance to win the primary… so the main hurdle for the GOP will be convincing him to drop out (as I explain in my morning analysis). With Alaska slowly joining the lean take-over column, it is that much more urgent for the GOP to defend their second-tier seats - starting with TX and NC. It might be too late for the NRSC to not have to invest in the latter, but it simply cannot afford to see the Texas race become competitive: it does not have the resources to help Cornyn while also defending seats like MS, OR and MN, NH and CO.

As for the MO-06 race, it promises to be one of the fall’s hot spots. Last time we checked in, Graves was airing gay-baiting ads hitting Barnes’s “San Fransisco values.” Barnes replied with a strongly-worded response. Two months later, the race has tightened in the Democrat’s favor and the DCCC included this race in the list of districts it will air ads this fall. MO-06 is making its way towards the toss-up column.

Senate: Stevens gets expedited trial and is unlikely to step aside, Smith touts Dem ties

Published
by
Taniel
on August 1, 2008
in AK-Sen, OR-Pres and OR-Sen
. 6 Comments

Rasmussen’s poll of the Alaska Senate race had the merit to bring some clarity to the race. Mark Begich led by double-digits against all three Republicans who have a chance at winning the August 26th primary, confirming that the GOP’s hopes of keeping this seat rest in getting Ted Stevens to win the primary and then convincing him to withdraw from the race to replace his name on the ballot (background here).

Trouble is that Stevens is showing no inclination to participate in any such plan. Appearing in front of a DC judge, Stevens pleaded not guilty and asked for an expedited trial that could render a decision before the election. Yesterday, a judge agreed to set a tentative start date to the trial on September 24th in order to come to a verdict before November 4th.

Thus, Stevens intends to fight on and clearly has no intention whatsoever of dropping out of the race - at least until the verdict is delivered. But by the time the court rules in October, it will be too late for the state party to replace Stevens’s name. In other words, the scenario under which Stevens wins the primary and then allows the GOP to replace him is becoming increasingly unlikely. (By the way, Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell ruled out jumping from the House to the Senate race yesterday and it’s not like the list of high-profile Republicans who could put a strong campaign in a matter of weeks is that long.)

What this means is that Mark Begich is likely to face one of the six Republicans whose name is currently on the ballot. He will be an overwhelming favorite against anyone not named Stevens by virtue of the difference of caliber, name recognition and political experience. As for Stevens, his bet is that he will be ruled innocent before the election and thus get a big enough boost to carry him to victory. Perhaps. But Stevens’s strategy has got to be worrisome to Republicans: starting on September 24th and for a significant portion of October, the incumbent will be busy defending himself in the courthouse rather than on the campaign trail. The Alaska press will cover the story daily for weeks this fall - all of it in a context of widespread Republican corruption in the state.

The verdict will be rendered in the homestretch of fall campaigning, potentially impacting not only the Senate race but the House and presidential race as well. Considering that Stevens’ ethical problems reflect that of his entire party in Alaska, coverage of his alleged misconduct and the potential of a guilty verdict could go a long way towards costing McCain the state’s three electoral votes. Even if the ruling is not guilty, could it really save Stevens’ when Begich is a strong candidate on his own right who was already ahead in most polls before Tuesday’s indictment?

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Gordon Smith continues his strategy of touting his ties with prominent Democrats. First, he featured the endorsement of two Democratic state lawmakers. Then came this stunning ads in which the Republican Senator hugged Barack Obama as tightly as possible. This week, he released an ad portraying his work not only with Obama but also with 2004 nominee John Kerry:

Not only does Smith portray himself as a bipartisan (”I choose to reach across the aisle with John Kerry to protect homeowners from foreclosure, with Barack Obama for better gas mileage”) but he also proceeds to hit his party’s leader (“And when President Bush tried to cut Medicaid, the Oregon health plan, I said no”). The ad could have been run by a Democrat seeking to distinguish himself in his party’s primary by highlighting his opposition to the president and his proximity with national figures.

Smith has a target on his back largely due to the dismal political environment for Republicans. To that extent, it is understandable that he would seek to portray himself as a maverick who is not beholden to his party label. Smith needs to be distance himself from his party, portray himself as a different type of Republican, in order to survive. At the same time, this will make Smith run on Merkley’s territory and voters often prefer the original to the copy. If even Smith is touting the importance of working with Obama, why wouldn’t voters just turn to the candidate who has actually been endorsed by Obama and who is likely to appear with him at campaign events if Obama travels to the state this fall?

Politico highlights another potential problem for Smith - the charge of opportunism. Here’s what Smith had to say about Kerry in 2004: “I’ve often said it’s not John Kerry’s fault that he looks French, but it is his fault that he wants to pursue policies that have us act like the French.” Smith also said: “John Kerry to me represents socialism.”

Gordon Smith’s ads are even more remarkable when we consider that Oregon is a swing state, and one the McCain camp has not entirely given up. Gore and Kerry had to fight to win this state, and while polls have shown Obama expending his lead the margins sometimes remain close. But Smith’s ads might as well be Obama spots, as the story of Smith and Obama cooperating on a bill highlights the former’s bipartisan creds just as much as it does Obama’s. Smith’s ads are doing just as much for his own re-election campaign than for Obama’s bid to keep the state’s electoral votes in the Democratic column.

Down-the-ballot: Coleman attacks Franken, Shea-Porter endangered

Published
by
Taniel
on July 23, 2008
in MD-01, MN-Sen, NH-01, NH-02 and OR-Sen
. 6 Comments

The ad wars are heating up in the Minnesota and Oregon Senate races. Both races feature a Republican incumbent running into a blue-leaning state in a year with a dismal environment for Republicans. Democrats want to tie Gordon Smith and Norm Coleman to their party label. Today, the DSCC unleashed a new ad to run in Oregon tying Smith to President Bush on a number of issues including taxes and support for Big Oil. [Update: Marc Ambinder points out that one of the votes the ad criticizes Smith for is the 2005 energy bill that Obama supported and McCain opposed...] The ad visually highlights the proximity between the two men, the sort of images we will see in a lot of ads in the coming months (including against McCain):

The responses of the Minnesota and Oregon incumbents’ have been different. In Oregon, Smith would not get anywhere if he were to try to make the relatively-bland Jeff Merkley into an unacceptable candidate; as a result he is trying to moderate his own image and attach himself to Barack Obama. Norm Coleman, on the other hand, is imitating Bush’s 2004 strategy: transform the election from a referendum on the GOP to one on Al Franken by making the latter into a controversial, polarizing figure.

Today, Norm Coleman unleashed one of the first memorable ads of the cycle, attacking his opponent Al Franken with the laundry list of controversies Franken has faced over the past few months. Speaking directly to the camera, three men presented as “ordinary” Minnesotans accuse Franken of not having paid his taxes, “foul-mouthed” attacks, “tasteless, sexist jokes,” and “writing all that juicy porn.” The ad concludes with the speaker announcing he will run for Senate because he is as qualified as the former comedian:

That the Coleman campaign does not even think it worthy to detail the allegations to which it is referring is bad news for Franken, as it suggests Republicans are confident that the stories over the 1995 rape joke and the 2000 Playboy story have become well-known by voters. The GOP is unearthing enough dirt on Franken to hit him with all they’ve got - and the Democrats have long feared that the Republican Party’s oppo research files contain even more incidents from Franken’s past.

Meanwhile, three polls were released from House races, pointing at some potential vulnerabilities:

  • The University of New Hampshire’s reputable Granite State poll matched up Rep. Shea-Porter against her competitors in NH-01 and finds her trailing 46% to 40% against former Rep. Jeb Bradley, whom she defeated in 2006. Against John Stephen, Shea-Porter is narrowly ahead 42% to 36%.
  • UNH also tested match-ups in NH-02 and found Rep. Hordes ahead 43% to 23% and 44% to 25% against his two Republican challengers.
  • In MD-01, finally, the campaign of Republican candidate Andy Harris released an internal poll that finds him leading Democrat Frank Kratovil 44% to 28%. Harris defeated Rep. Gilchrest in the GOP primary back in February in what is a very conservative district (Bush prevailed here with 62%).

While all three of these districts are listed in my latest House ratings, there is no doubt that NH-01 is the most competitive. Depending on the outcome of the September Republican primary, Carol Shea-Porter could find herself the underdog. Her victory against Bradley was possibly the biggest Election Night shocker in 2006, and the former representative has vowed to take his seat back.

MD-01 also presents an interesting situation: While Democrats are contesting the seat, it is somewhat surprising that Harris has taken the step of releasing a poll in which he is as low as 44% in a district that voted for Bush with 62% of the vote. Not to mention that there is reason to be skeptical of this internal poll, whose sample is only 300 voters. This is not to say that Kratovil (whose own internal poll showed him trailing by 9% back in May) has a strong shot at pulling an upset, but it says something about the GOP’s anxieties over its open seats that this survey is considered good news by the Republican candidate.

Wednesday polls: Merkley takes his first lead in Oregon’s Senate race, though Dole and Roberts increase their lead

Published
by
Taniel
on July 16, 2008
in CA-Pres, KS-Pres, KS-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, OR-Pres, OR-Sen, SD-Sen and WA-Pres
. 10 Comments

Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. Along with New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, Oregon was part of the original list of the DSCC was determined to go after. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here — just as they seem to be doing in Maine. Well, Democrats finally got some good news from the race with the first poll to find Merkley leading the Republican incumbent:

  • After two straight polls that found Smith leading by single-digits, Rasmussen released its July survey today with Merkley narrowly ahead of Smith, 43% to 41%. When leaners are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%.

Make no mistake, this will not be an easy race for Democrats. Smith has always known he has a target on his back and he has prepared himself — even airing ads linking himself to Barack Obama! Projecting as moderate an image as possible is essential for Smith given Oregon’s increasingly blue profile, but it seems that even might not be enough. Forget Susan Collins, Gordon Smith is the most at risk of being Chaffee-ed this year.

Beyond Oregon’s Senate poll, we can launch our usual poll roundup, starting with a national poll:

  • The latest Reuters/Zogby poll finds Obama slightly increasing his lead. He is now ahead 47% to 40%, though he only has a 3% lead among independents.

This is now the fourth national poll in two days showing Obama with a high single-digit lead, after Quinnipiac’s 9%, the NYT’s 6% and the Washington Post’s 8%. Just as in yesterday’s Quinnipiac survey, it is striking to see Obama leading comfortably overall but not among independents. In 2008, Democratic candidates can win based on their base and on voters who have come to identify with the party since 2004, as long as they can hold roughly even among independents. I stand by what I said yesterday: This confirms to me that it is a “strategic blunder” for Obama to emphasize his centrist positions. In Rasmussen’s Oregon poll, Smith and Merkley get the same percentage of the Republican and Democratic vote respectively and Smith leads among independents by a fairly large 10% — though he trails overall!

Next comes a wave of state presidential polls:

  • SUSA’s poll of North Carolina finds McCain’s lead narrowing to only five percent, 50% to 45%. Obama gets 94% of the black vote but only 31% of the white vote.
  • In Oregon, Rasmussen shows Obama up 46% to 37%, a lead comparable to what he posted last month.
  • In Washington, Moore Information — a Republican firm — finds Obama leading 47% to 37%.
  • And California’s most reputable survey, the Field, has Obama crushing McCain 54% to 30%.
  • No surprises in Kansas, finally, as McCain is up 20% in Rasmsussen’s latest poll, 52 to 32%. That’s up from a 10% lead last month.

No surprises on the Pacific Coast, with Obama holding strong in all three of these states — increasingly so in Oregon and Washington, places Democrats should always be careful in. North Carolina remains an interesting state, with poll after poll showing McCain holding on by the tightest of margins. Note that SUSA’s sample includes 19% of black voters, whereas the 2004 exit poll shows that 26% of voters were African-American (and some predict an increase in black turnout). That shift alone might allow Obama to make up the difference of the SUSA poll.

But Obama will have to improve his share of the white vote to be truly competitive in this Southern state - or in any Southern state except Virginia. Kerry got 27% of whites here four years ago, roughly what Obama got in this SUSA poll. But the good news for Democrats is that Obama does not need to come close to McCain among Southern white voters: combined with overwhelming support from black voters, a significant boost among white voters is all Obama needs to win North Carolina. If 25% of the electorate is black and Obama gets around 90% of that vote, 36% of the white vote would be enough to carry the state.

Finally, a number of down-the-ballot polls:

  • In North Carolina’s Senate race, SUSA finds Elizabeth Dole jumping up to a 12% lead, up from the 4% in May.
  • The state’s gubernatorial race remains a complete toss-up, with Beverly Perdue at 47% and Pat McCrory at 46%.
  • In South Dakota’s Senate race, Tim Johnson has no problem as he crushes his Republican opponent 60% to 35%.
  • Finally, in the Kansas Senate race, Rasmussen breaks the long series of polls finding Sen. Roberts surprisingly weak by now showing him leading Jim Slattery 57% to 30%.

The Dole-Hagan numbers continue to disappoint Democrats, though SUSA’s poll does nothing but confirm what other institutes have already shown: Hagan received a dramatic boost following her primary victory in early May, but Dole’s ad campaign since then have allowed her to create some gap again. She rebounded by 15% in one month in Rasmussen, jumped back up double-digits in Civitas and PPP.

And the Democrat’s quest to find new seats to put in play is also countered today by Rasmussen’s Kansas results; but keep in mind that Research 2000 and Cooper Associates had also found unexpectedly tight numbers. What might have changed in the past few weeks? Taking no chances, Roberts started airing his first ad two weeks ago.

Senate polls: Democrats strong in CO, TX and MS but weakening in MN

Published
by
Taniel
on June 26, 2008
in CO-Sen, MN-Sen, MS-Sen, NJ-Sen, OR-Sen, TX-Sen and UT-Gov
. 0 Comments

An unusually high number of Senate polls were released today, prompting me to separate my poll roundup in two. Presidential polls will have to wait a bit longer, as the surveys of seven different senatorial races (six of which can be described as competitive) give us a good overview of the current playing field:

  • Quinnipiac polled Colorado’s senate race, where Mark Udall is ahead of Bob Schaffer 48% to 38%, including a 54% to 37% lead among independents.
  • In another Quinnipiac poll, Minnesota’s Norm Coleman leads Al Franken convincingly, 51% to 41%. He crushes him 55% to 35% among independents. There were no match-ups that included Jesse Ventura.
  • In Oregon, a poll conducted for the conservative Chamber of Commerce found Sen. Gordon Smith with a narrow lead over Jeff Merkley, 38% to 34%.
  • In New Jersey, Farleigh Dickinson confirms that Frank Lautenberg has a clear edge against former Rep. Zimmer, as he leads 45% to 28%.
  • A Lyceum poll of the Texas Senate race finds an unexpectedly tight race, with Sen. Cornyn and Rick Noriega within the margin of error, 38% to 36%.
  • In Mississippi, Rasmussen polled the two Senate races, confirming that Sen. Cochran faces no trouble against Erick Fleming, whom he leads 59% to 32%.
  • But in the other race from the state, Ronnie Musgrove comes in with 47% to the 46% of the newly-appointed Sen. Wicker. Musgrove’s favorability rating is lower, however, 47% compared to 56% for Wicker (the two candidates are as well-known).
  • (Update: Rasmussen’s website is being screwy and giving two sets of numbers, with another version showing 48% for Wicker and 47% for Musgrove. In either case, the difference is within the MoE and the race is a toss-up.)
  • Finally, a quick note from a non-senatorial race as Utah Gov. Huntsman should have no problem this fall according to a new Rasmussen poll. He leads jon Hunstman 66% to 19%…

It is difficult to know what to make of the Oregon and Texas polls given the very high number of undecided voters. Undecideds typically tend to break towards the challenger, and for Smith and Cornyn to come in under 40% is clearly an ominous sign. But take both polls with a grain of salt — perhaps particularly the Texas one, since it also shows McCain leading Obama by 5%, which seems to good for Democrats to be true. Note, however, that two polls taken in May (Rasmussen and Research 2000) found Cornyn leading by only 4%, leading to speculation that Texas could indeed be a battleground, so this survey does not come as a shock.

Quinnipiac’s surveys are the most interesting of this bunch, certainly, and they are also the most reliable. Both confirm the conventional wisdom: In Colorado, this is the third poll in a row to find Udall opening a comfortable lead against Schaffer, in what many Democrats expected would happen months ago. But the open seat race remained tight for long. Schaffer seems to have been hurt by the mounting bad press, particularly regarding his ties to Jack Abramoff and it is also likely that the dismal environment for the GOP has caught up with him. This race is unlikely to join Virginia and New Mexico as almost sure pick-ups, but we should expect Udall to have leads hovering around the high-single digits/low-double digits mark at least until the campaign heats up.

As for Minnesota, Quinnipiac follows the SUSA survey that had found Coleman ahead by 12%. Just as Schaffer, Franken has been suffering through months of bad press — a lot of which has concentrated on his past as comedian, but also on his tax disclosures. Speculation that he might have trouble winning the DFL’s endorsement never came to pass, but Franken is clearly taking a toll from the controversies. Once one of the Democrats’ best opportunities, MN seems to have migrated in the “lean retention” category.

Thankfully for Schumer’s dreams of reaching 60 seats, the Mississippi race is holding on as a toss-up and polls have repeatedly shown that the GOP would be deeply mistaken in regarding this seat as a sure retention (as they sometimes do). The fact that the two candidates’ party ID will not be on the ballot is a further boost to Musgrove in this deeply red state, though it is unclear whether Rasmussen mentioned the candidates’ party affiliation.

Let’s tally it up: Adding Colorado to the list of probable pick-ups (VA, NM, and NH) already gets us to four. While Minnesota is becoming more difficult for Dems, Oregon and Mississippi are still strong options — and so is Alaska, not polled here. And the poll from Texas confirms that the DSCC has a large pool of states that are perhaps not first-tier right now but that could become truly competive (add to this list NC, KY and perhaps KS with Maine somewhere between this group and Alaska). And with New Jersey clearly leaning Lautenberg, that leaves only Louisiana as a race they have to play defense in. That leaves an unlikely but plausible road to 60.

Down-ballot: NY’s GOP sinks further and Gordon Smith embraces Obama

Published
by
Taniel
on June 26, 2008
in LA-07, NC-10, NY-13, OR-Sen and Uncategorized
. 0 Comments

Just when you think New York’s GOP could not possibly sink further, prompting me to write a post titled “The last throes of New York’s Republican Party, ” the state’s Republicans manage to attract even more ridicule. Following the tragic death of their last-minute candidate Frank Powers, the Staten Island GOP has been brainstorming for possible replacements in NY-13. All high-profile candidates — District Attorney Donovan, state Senator Lanza and city councilman Odda — once again declared that they would not run, leaving a list of second-tier candidates who would already face long odds to defeat Democratic candidate Mike McMahon.

But over the past 24 hours, the two potential second-tier candidates have also ruled themselves out! The first is former Assemblyman Matthew Mirones, who declared “I’ve decided on a personal level not to get back into the political arena at this time.” Some Republicans were hopeful about Mirones because he could self-fund his candidacy. His decision seemingly ensured that NY1 reporter Lisa Giovinazzo would get the GOP’s endorsement. She already seemed to be the consensus choice in May before Republicans unexpectedly settled on Powers instead. But today, Giovinazzo stunned nearly everyone by telling the New York Times that she will not run for Congress!

Keep in mind that this is a GOP-held seat in a district that is not that inhospitable to the party. That Republicans are unable to find any candidate willing to run speaks to how dismal the situation of New York’s GOP has become. Forget finding a second or third tier candidate, the party is now hoping to find any candidate at all. The only decent contender the GOP could still turn to is state Supreme Court Justice Joseph Maltese, but he would have to resign his judicial seat before even starting a run and his name has not been mentioned for a few days. The New York Times reports that the only names the GOP is now circulating aren’t even Republicans, as the party could choose to cross-endorse the candidate of the Conservative Party or the Independent Party. And keep in mind that there were some suggestions earlier this week that the GOP might decide to cross-endorse McMahon!

Democrats are having much less recruitment trouble this cycle, as candidates are more eager to run in election years where everything seems possible. Now, the DCCC looks to have put in play LA-07, a conservative district. State Senator Don Cravins has announced he will run against Rep. Charles Boustany and he will be a very strong challenger to the Republican who won an open seat in 2004 following the retirement of a Democratic congressman — underscoring that this is not an impossible seat for Democrats to win despite the fact that Bush won the district with 60% of the vote in 2004 (55% in 2000). LA-07 has a sizable African-American population which could help Cravins this year. This race remains likely retention for the GOP, but it enters the list of contested seats.

It’s also worth pointing to a new poll of NC-10 released by the independent group PPP that implies that it might be worth looking at this seat:

  • In a seat Bush won with 67%, McCain only leads Obama 52% to 31% and heavily-favored GOP incumbent Patrick McHenry is ahead of Daniel Johnson 49% to 38%. The only bright spot for the GOP is that gubernatorial candidate Patrick McCrory is polling at the level he needs to win (55-30%).

NC-10 is on few people’s radar screen and it remains to be seen whether the DCCC can expand the map that much, even with their massive amount of cash-on-hand. If they find that they have money left, they will have a vast array of seats to choose from to test the Republican incumbent, and it looks like NC-10 will be one of them. (There were also a number of Senate polls released today but I will include those in the poll roundup).

Meanwhile, Oregon’s Republican Senator Gordon Smith followed up his ad featuring the endorsemeng of two Democratic state legislators with a new spot touting his relationship with… Barack Obama! Sure, Oregon is not Mississippi’s first district, where the NRCC tried to hurt the Democratic candidate by running ads about his being endorsed by the Illinois Senator, but for a GOP Senator to feel that Obama is a shoo-in enough in Oregon to justify airing this ad is nothing short of remarkable:

Of course, this says as much about Obama’s chances in Oregon (where polls show him with a lead, albeit not an overwhelming one) as they do about Gordon Smith’s electoral strategy: Appeal to the independents by promoting his bipartisan image and his ability to work across the aisle. Smith has been doing his best to demonstrate his moderate credentials since the beginning of this cycle, when it became evident that the Senator had a target on his back and that his state’s blue leaning would threaten to make him into a new Chaffee.

Smith’s ad comes with risks: If the Republican senatorial candidate is praising Obama, it will make McCain’s hope to contest the state that much more difficult. Furthermore, it might confuse voters as to where Smith stands. After all, the Senator is a McCain supporter. And it will make Smith that much more vulnerable to Obama supporting his opponent Merkley, as it will be justifiably interpreted as a sharp rebuke. Obama wasted no time issuing a statement to remind voters/journalists that he was supporting Merkley.

Finally, to follow up on my discussion of the FISA bill last week, it is worth pointing out to a report that finds that the 94 Democratic House members who once opposed similar FISA bills but voted yes last week received an average of $3000 more from telecommunication companies than Democratic house members who remained opposed to the bill. Nothing surprising here — the power of lobbyists in Washington has been well documented — but still a depressing. The report lists the contributions to all those members, some of which have received a lot of money (and those include many beyond the leadership, including a number of blue dog conservative Democrats who were no doubt going to be the first ones to switch). Note that the Senate vote on the measure was delayed to July, by the way.

OR-heavy down-ballot thread: Sen. Smith touts Dem endorsements and GOP House candidate hit by abortion scandal

Published
by
Taniel
on June 23, 2008
in GA-12, NY-13, OR-05, OR-Sen and SC-Sen
. 10 Comments

Running for re-election in liberal-leaning Oregon, Gordon Smith has long known that he will have to fight hard to win re-election. Though Democrats threw him a lifeline by failing to recruit one of their strongest candidates, their nominee Jeff Merkley is solid enough to keep the race competitive. Smith has been preparing for more than a year by moving towards the center on enough issues to coherently argue that he is no Bush lackey, particularly on the Iraq War: Smith was one of the first Republicans to break with the Administration and start critiquing the war effort — though his new ad is disingenuously forcing that trait by describing him as “one of the first to stand up to George Bush and other Republicans to end this war.”

This latest ad features a Democratic state representative and a Democratic state Senator endorsing the Republican Senator, praising him for his bipartisanship:

Keep in mind that while Bush is certainly very unpopular in Oregon, this is not the bluest state in the country we are talking about. The extent to which Smith is trying to shake off the GOP label and claim the bipartisan mantle is remarkable and revealing of how much trouble Republican incumbents are in this year solely because of their party’s dismal ratings. And the fact that elected Democratic officials are willing to participate in his advertisement efforts speaks to the fact that the Oregon Democratic Party has not really gotten its act together. Smith has led in all polls of the race, though his advantage is within single-digits and he comes in under 50% — a sure sign of vulnerability. Given Al Franken’s troubles in MN, the DSCC is sure to devote as much resources to this race as necessary.

Meanwhile, Oregon Republicans are letting the open seat of OR-05 slip out of their hands despite it being one of only two competitive Democratic-held open seats. You might remember that, back in May, Mike Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend’s abortion years ago. Right to Life blasted Erickson immediately, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary, leading Democrats to rejoice that the GOP had nominated a candidate too damaged to be competitive in the general and some Republicans are refusing to support Erickson.

Now, the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid for has been contacted by the Oregonian and she confirms Mannix’s story. She reveals being particularly angered by Erickson’s denying the story and his attempts at campaigning as a pro-lifer: “Tawnya, a registered Republican, said she received a campaign flier with a photo of Erickson next to a baby, touting his endorsement by the anti-abortion group Oregon Right to Life. The mailer made him out to be “some sort of safe haven for babies, and honestly, it made me sick,” she said.” Erickson denies the story entirely — but this isn’t going to help his already rocky relationship with local conservative activists.

In other — tragic — House news, the candidate endorsed by the Staten Island GOP to run for Vito Fossella’s House seat in NY-13 passed away yesterday. The Republican Party turned to Powers on May 29th after a slate of potential GOP candidates declined to run for this Republican-held seat, in a reflection of the long odds the party faces in keeping its last New York City seat. The GOP will now presumably reconvene to endorse another candidate, and the names of some candidates who had previously declined to run (starting with state Sen. Lanza) are being mentioned again. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon was already favored to win this seat that has now gone through months of unexpected and at times tragic news.

Moving on to the Senate, South Carolina was never on anyone’s list of vulnerable Senate seats, but a party always likes to have some sort of credible challenger in case the incumbent has a meltdown, commits a huge blunder or has some senior moment (see Kentucky in 2004 and Virginia in 2006). Well, it turns out that SC Democrats might have nominated… a Republican to take on Senator Lindsay Graham. Bob Conley has had a long relationship with the GOP and, while he claims to have left the party back in 2000 or 2001, he won a spot on the Republican Party’s Horry County executive committee in February 2007. While he pledged to be a Democrat when filing his candidacy papers and thus resigned from the GOP, this shouldn’t push the DSCC to attempt anything in SC even if Graham suffers the worst scandals over the next few months.

Finally, the roll call of the House vote on the FISA bill is now up, and 128 Democrats voted nay versus 105 who voted yea, including many of their prized pick-ups of 2006 (Altmire, Gillibrand, Arcuri, Boyda, Sestak, Pennsylvania’s Murphy), many of whom represent more or less conservative districts. Of the two Udalls who are looking to upgrade to the Senate, New Mexico’s voted Nay and Colorado’s voted yea. The former is more of a shoo-in than the latter. As Glenn Greenwald reports, there is some massive fundraising going on to punish Democrats supporting the bill and the sight of activists is set on Rep. Barrow of GA-12 (one of the most conservative Dems in the House, even though he represents a district won by Kerry). Remember that a heated primary is being held in that district, but Obama chose to cut an ad for Barrow last week.

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