Archive for the 'OR-04' Category

Oregon’s post-Kitzhaber landscape

Published
by
Taniel
on September 3, 2009
in OR-02, OR-04 and OR-Gov
. 0 Comments

Former Governor John Kitzhaber might not be the most popular of politicians, but his entry in Oregon’s gubernatorial race is sure to shuffle the race in a way no other candidate could have. He now has to be considered the favorite to win a third term. This is due as much to the advantage he’ll hold over any GOP rival - a June poll found Kitzhaber posting healthy leads against the state’s highest-profile Republicans - as to the fact that he might not even face much of a contest at all.

In this open race (Ted Kulongoski is barred from seeking a third term), it was anyone’s guess as to who would even run, with Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio and GOP Rep. Greg Walden signaling their interest. Both of them looks popular statewide and either of them would have been formidable candidates; had they entered in the race, it would have led to major consequences at the House level as well. DeFazio’s district is closely divided so the GOP would have had a good chance at picking-it up; his departure would also have been a major blow to the left, as DeFazio is one of the chamber’s most progressive members - surprisingly so given how swing a district he represents.

We have not heard anything from either congressmen since Kitzhaber declared his candidacy but it looks to me highly unlikely that either will want to give up their powerful House positions for such a difficult race. DeFazio is a 22-year incumbent who is now the chairman of the Highways and Transit subcommittee. The last thing such a powerful politician wants is to find himself an underdog in any race - but that’s exactly what he would be by the very nature of the contrast between Kitzhaber’s statewide background and DeFazio’s more localized fame.

As such, Kitzhaber’s decision to run might be a blessing for the DCCC’s hopes of holding on to OR-04 (by the way: this is the district in which the GOP has been sabotaging itself in recent weeks) and more specifically for progressives hoping to keep DeFazio in the House.

As for Walden, he is far less senior than his Democratic colleague - and the fact that his party is in the minority does not make Washington as appealing a place for him. Yet, it too him much tribulations before he was finally able to make it to the House, so this is not a position he should easily want to give up; he is also the ranking member on a subcommittee of the Energy and Commerce Committee. Since he was already not looking committed to the race, I am doubtful he’ll be that interested in jumping in now that he has to face a former governor.

(Note that whatever he decides will be less consequential at the House level, since OR-02 is reliably Republican. On the other hand, there are here again ideological undertones: Walden is a member of the moderate Republican Main Street Partnership, and the right could hope to get a more reliably conservative congressman out of a district that gave McCain a double-digit victory.

So with DeFazio and Walden more likely than not out of the race (though both could certainly surprise us), where does that leave us? Well, besides Kitzhaber 3 candidates are also in the race: former Democratic Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, Republican high-tech entrepreneur Allen Alley and Republican state Senator Jason Atkinson.

Both Alley and Atkinson should make credible general election candidates. Alley in particular just ran for state Treasurer in 2008; while he lost, he did so by a relatively competitive 51% to 45%, substantially outperforming John McCain and running almost as well as incumbent Senator Gordon Smith. Atkinson also has run a statewide race, gathering 22% in the GOP’s gubernatorial primary in 2006; he might not have that much experience, but if 2010 ends up being a tough cycle for Democrats he could certainly keep Republicans competitive.

Yet, Oregon has taken a left-ward enough turn that the Democratic nominee should be heavily favored to win the general election, which means that Kitzhaber’s main worry will undoubtedly be winning the primary. Bradbury’s intentions are unknown at this point. While he said he was “90% in” just a day before Kitzhaber announced his candidacy, many speculate that he will not want to run face the former governor. On the other hand, Bradbury no longer holds public office (he was forced out by term limits in 2008) and as such does not have that much to lose in a run against Kitzhaber.

A primary between Bradbury and Kitzhaber would not be as obvious a race to call as you might think listening to the commentary on how formidable the former governor should be. Sure, he will start favored, but Bradbury would certainly have a shot to make the race competitive. Beyond the fact that he has extensive statewide experience - winning two statewide races for Secretary of State and running against Gordon Smith in the 2002 Senate race, which is bound to count for something - Bradbury could play the freshness card, urging voters not to go back to their old leadership. Of course, that strategy has not been working so well for Gavin Newsom in California’s gubernatorial primary, but Jerry Brown has reached yet another level of political stardom.

Mixed news for NRCC: No special election in FL-10 but top recruit flaming out in OR-04

Published
by
Taniel
on August 26, 2009
in FL-10, IN-09 and OR-04
. 0 Comments

There will be no special election in FL-10

A few days after Charlie Crist’s signaled he was interested in appointing Rep. Bill Young to serve the reminder of Mel Martinez’s Senate term, Young said he was not interested. This comes at a disappointment for Democrats, who were hoping to get their first shot at this seat in decades; the district is very competitive, but Young has been too entrenched. For Crist to finally remove him from his seat would have given Democrats a golden opportunity.

Worst still for the DCCC: Young’s decision might also be a signal that he intends to seek re-election next year, once again beating back speculation that he’s about to quit. If he was even just leaning towards retirement, would he not want to his final 16 months in Congress to be spent in the Senate rather in the House? Or would he think that serving as a senior member of the Appropriations Committee gives him more power than he would have as a lame-duck excessively junior senator?

It’s tough to tell, and we might not know for many more months. Democrats are already running a strong candidate of their own: state Senator Charlie Justice. Perhaps Young is waiting for early signs of Justice’s strength to determine whether to retire.

What’s up with Oregon Republicans?

For the second cycle in a row, a highly-touted Oregon Republican is flaming out. In 2008, it was Mike Erickson in OR-05: A series of scandals and controversies made what was supposed to be a competitive open seat into an easy hold for Democrats. This cycle, the action is taking place in the neighboring 4th district, a Democratic seat the NRCC has been curiously sanguine about ever since Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken entered the race.

Leiken’s campaign started to look in trouble in June, when the Democratic Party filed a complaint about a $2,000 payment Leiken made to a company named P&G in exchange for a poll on implementing gas tax. The problem: No one knew much about this company, which was not registered with the state and whose address happened to also be that of his mother’s real estate business… This left Leiken’s own Treasurer casting doubt on whether this was a legitimate payment. “It better be a legitimate company, for crying out loud. I’ll have to believe Sid it is,” he said.

Leiken’s attempted to belie the charges for a few months, but he changed strategies last week: In a tearful press conference, held with his wife by his side (when’s the last time one of those was used to admit to corruption-related charges rather than to confess adultery?), he admitted he did not have the proper documentation to justify the expenditure, apologized to his constituents and to his family and announced he would repay the $2,000 with his own pocket.

This is as disastrous a campaign launch as I can imagine. A politician never apologizes unless he absolutely has to and it generally means it is too late to salvage his reputation - witness Rep. Don Sherwood and Rep. Tom Feeney’s apology ads in the 2006 and 2008 cycles. The press conference led local evening news, voters outside of Springfield were thus introduced to Leiken in a negative light and the controversy will give tons of fodder to the DCCC’s ad-makers next year.

It’s not even like Leiken has put the controversy behind him. He said that he’ll pay his mother directly, but why he was trying to pay her in the first place? His explanation that this was a legitimate transaction for which he cannot find the proper documentation is unconvincing. And before convincing voters, Leiken should worry about placating Oregon secretary of state’s office, which is still investigating the matter. Needless to say, for that investigation to go any further than it already has will sink Leiken’s chances further. Democrats are looking good to keep Oregon’s 4th, whether or not Peter DeFazio runs for re-election.

Could there really be a fifth consecutive Hill-Sodrel match-up?

Republican Mike Sodrel, who lost three of the four previous rounds, is reportedly considering trying yet again in 2010. Perhaps he thinks he’ll have more of a chance now that the environment will no longer be as toxic for his party, but it does seem that voters are through hesitating when presented with these two options: Hill won 58% to 38% in 2008. And let’s not forget that Hill’s one loss came in 2004, a tough cycle for Republicans in which Bush’s coattails boosted Sodrel - and even then the Democrat only lost by 2,000 votes.

On the other hand, it’s not like Republicans have many other options against Hill, who does not look very likely to face a competitive challenge next year. So why not yet again try Sodrel?

House: One mayor mulls runs, another faces investigation

Published
by
Taniel
on June 25, 2009
in IL-07, OR-04 and PA-15
. 0 Comments

Are Democrats finally getting lucky in PA-15?

Of the 6 districts currently held by Republicans voted for John Kerry in 2004, 5 are currently rated toss-ups in my House ratings. PA-15 is the only to be rated in a less competitive category (”likely retention”) because the DCCC has been experiencing recruitment difficulties, just as it did in 2006 and 2008. In March, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, who had already declined a run in the past two cycles, announced that he was once again uninterested in pursuing a congressional campaign.

Yet, it looks like Callahan has had a change of heart over the past few months: Morning Call reported this week that he had approached Democratic leaders, who went on the record to acknowledge that the Mayor was “seriously contemplating a bid.”

There is no question that this is a very positive development for Democrats. Rep. Charlie Dent might be an elusive target, but a credible Democratic challenger is all it would take for the race to grow competitive. And Callahan is certainly a credible candidate: Not only do Mayors usually make good candidates because they have a more direct connection to voters than other politicians, but Bethlehem is a sizable enough city (its population is above 70,000) that Callahan would have the benefit of a strong geographical base.

Another mayor’s prospects are looking bleaker

Republicans have been touting the candidacy of Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken ever since he entered the race against longtime Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio, who has not faced a competitive re-election campaign in 22 years. As I wrote at the time, Leiken’s strength in that match-up should not be overstated: OR-04 is trending blue, the popular DeFazio occupies an influential House position and Leiken is inexperienced in large-scale campaigns. But I added that he could certainly give DeFazio a more competitive run than usual - not to mention make a strong candidate if the congressman chooses to run for Governor.

Well, new developments are now casting doubt of Leiken’s viability. Following a complaint by state Democrats, Oregon’s Secretary of State has opened an investigation into whether Leiken breached campaign finance rules by using his mayoral campaign funds to pay for a congressional survey. The Eugene Register-Guard soon revealed that the polling company, “for which there is no record with the Oregon Corporations Division,” has the same address as the real estate company of Leiken’s mother. The paper continues:

Dean Kortge, treasurer of Friends of Sid Leiken, said he has no receipt in his records of a payment to P&G, and has no knowledge of the company. Kortge, a local insurance agent, said the receipt to P&G is the only one missing from his campaign files. “I have receipts on every other thing,” he said. “I’m a pretty analytical and compulsive guy.”

Kortge said Leiken told him that he had the receipt to P&G “in his stuff” and asked him to enter the name of P&G into the state campaign finance database. Kortge said he trusts Leiken that the business exists. “It better be a legitimate company, for crying out loud. I’ll have to believe Sid it is,” Kortge said.

So Leiken’s candidate’s treasurer is implicitly but unmistakably raising the possibility that his boss has made a payment to a phantom company and lied about holding a receipt. That’s not a good sign, though a just-released response by the Leiken campaign is trying to clear up the controversy by claiming that was conducted a poll about the city’s opinion on the gas tax.

Davis considers leaving, and not even to run for Senate

Rep. Danny Davis was considered a potential replacement for Barack Obama’s Senate seat before Blagojevich’s arrest plunged Illinois into political chaos; he now is mentioned as a possible Senate candidate if Roland Burris chooses not to run. And now comes word that Davis is indeed considering leaving the House… but not for a Senate run! Instead, he has formed an exploratory committee to run for Cook County Board President.

This is not a huge surprise in that Davis served on the Board in the 1990s and he was also interested in serving as president three years ago. The Cook County Board is a powerful body (the county is the second largest in the country, so we are talking about jurisdiction over an area with 5,2 million inhabitants) but it is still somewhat rare for a sitting congressman to launch himself in local politics.

If Davis were to leave the House, Democrats would be certain to keep IL-07, a downtown Chicago district that gave Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama more than 80% of the vote. There would sure be intense competition in the Democratic primary, however.

NRCC lands two credible recruits against traditionally safe Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on May 6, 2009
in CA-47 and OR-04
. 8 Comments

OR-04: A swing district that has not been contested for 22 years

Peter DeFazio would have faced some trouble represents a swing district that voted for Bush by 5% in 2000. Yet, he has never dipped below 60% at the polls in his 11 re-election races! Republicans look determined to finally contest the district in 2010, and they have landed a strong recruit: Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken.

While Springfield represents a small portion of the district, Leiken has served as the city’s mayor since 2000 Republicans also point to his business experience and his ties to the timber industry, which is significant in the area. On the other hand, Leiken’s strength should not be overstated. Sure, DeFazio  has not have been tested for decades, but neither has Leiken, whose past two races were uncontested. And while Springfield is a non-negligeable part of the district, its real population center is liberal Eugene.

Furthermore, DeFazio is a very strong incumbent, and he occupies a powerful position in the House as the chairman of the Transportation Subcommittee on Highways and Transit. He can point to the additional funding his seniority has allowed him to win for the district. And OR-04 has been getting increasingly Democratic: While the rest of the country moved to the GOP from 2000 to 2004, John Kerry improved Al Gore’s performance by 5% and Barack Obama swung the district by an additional 11%.

In short: DeFazio might have to spend a bit more time worrying about his re-election than usual, but he remains overwhelmingly favored to win a 13th term!

So why are Republicans so excited by Leiken’s candidacy? DeFazio is considering running in Oregon’s open gubernatorial race, and an open seat race would be competitive. Democrats would start with an advantage, but OR-04 is clearly a swing district both parties can hope to contest. In fact, the NRCC is surely hoping that Leiken’s candidacy will pressure DeFazio into exiting the race - though I doubt that the Mayor looks threatening enough for DeFazio to make the jump based on his entrance.

Interestingly, DeFazio welcomed Leiken to the race by blasting his support for last fall’s bailout plan. “Last fall, Leiken marched lock-step with George Bush, John McCain and leaders in Congress in supporting the massive $700 billion Wall Street bailout,” he wrote in a statement. While it seems unfair to blast Leiken as a Republican robot for a position shared by Barack Obama and the majority of Democratic House members, DeFazio was one of the bailout’s staunchest congressional opponents and he introduced an alternative plan. The Oregonian called him the “leader of the left’s anti-bailout forces in Congress.”

CA-47: GOP taking aim at another traditionally safe Democrat

Over the past decade, CA-47 has taken some wild swings in the presidential voting. After voting for Al Gore by 14%, it gave George W. Bush a 1% victory in 2004 and then swung by a massive 23%! Rep. Loretta Sanchez’s numbers have been more stable: Ever since unseating a Republican incumbent by 1% in 1996, she has easily won re-election.

Yet, the NRCC is convinced that the district is open to voting for a Republican and that Assemblyman Van Tran is the man who can unseat her. After weeks of being courted by GOP officials, the Vietnamese-American politician announced today that he would form an exploratory committee. Republicans are already celebrating the news, with one NRCC official saying Tran is “one of the top people” he has worked to recruit.

(A note of caution: The formation of an exploratory committee is obviously not equivalent to declaring your candidacy - and that warning might be especially appropriate for Van Tran: He formed an exploratory committee to run for a state Senate seat in 2006, but he did not pursue the race.)

I am somewhat puzzled by the GOP’s excitement about this contest: This is too blue a district for a Democratic incumbent who has shown no prior sign of vulnerability to be that endangered. George W. Bush’s 2004 victory in the district was surely appetizing for Republicans, but California has moved to the left since then and Gore and Obama’s big victories suggest that the GOP can only contest the race in the best of conditions.

A seven-term incumbent running for re-election is not the best of conditions, and it’s not like Sanchez has unexpectedly underperformed in recent cycles, which is usually what we look at to determine whether incumbents who are believed to be safe could be endangered: In 2006, she crushed a well-funded challenger; last fall, she received 70% of the vote.

Tran might be a credible candidate to run, and he could have a shot if the economic situation pushes the number of incumbents down and creates a toxic political environment for Democrats. At the very least, the GOP is clearly hoping to expand the map far beyond what they managed to do over the past two cycles, forcing Democrats. But Sanchez remains clearly favored to win and the GOP should be careful not to let itself be distracted: Given all the red territory Democrats conquered in 2006 and in 2008, the GOP already has a lot of obviously vulnerable seats to focus on without spending funds on blue districts like CA-47.

Note that CA-47 could be open (just as OR-04), as Sanchez has opened the door to running for Governor or even for Senate if Barbara Boxer chooses not to seek a fourth term. That possibility helps explain why Van Tran’s candidacy is appealing to Republicans, but this scenario looks fairly unlikely: Boxer has shown no sign that she is considering retiring and there does not look to be much of an opening in the gubernatorial run for Sanchez to jump in.

Update

I remain unconvinced that Sanchez should fear Tran, so I have changed the title of my post from “strong recruits” to “credible recruits.” The district has an important number of Asian-American voters - particularly of Vietnamese-Americans, with Orange County’s important Little Saigon - which helps explain why the GOP is attracted to Tran’s candidacy. But two other problems another problem for Tran: First, Ron says in a comment that Tran lives outside of Sanchez’s district. Second, his legislative district (California’s 68th) is far more Republican than the district-at-large as Bush received 60% there in 2004 - which is just about the number Tran has received in his own races; thus, he cannot argue that he has demonstrated great appeal to Democratic voters.

NRCC hoping to go where it hasn’t gone lately

Published
by
Taniel
on April 13, 2009
in AR-01, AR-02, FL-02, FL-18, IL-11, LA-03, MI-01, NH-01, NV-03, NY-01, NY-24, OH-15, OH-18, OR-04, PA-03 and TX-17
. 2 Comments

Early in a cycle, national parties launch large waves of attack that target dozens of U.S. representatives, many of whom will not end up facing a competitive race. Yet, the list of chosen districts tells us a lot about the party’s offensive strategy - and the NRCC is letting us know that it intends to mount a real offensive for seats that are not commonly thought of as top-tier opportunities.

The NRCC’s first mass offensive, which occurred in early February, targeted 30 House Democrats with radio ads devoted to the stimulus bill. Now, the committee is targeting 43 Democrats for supporting Barack Obama’s budget - or rather, for supporting Nancy Pelosi’s budget, since the GOP is doing its best to separate congressional Democrats (who are generally unpopular) from the President (who enjoys high approval ratings).

33 of these incumbents are only being stung by robocalls; radio ads are running in 9 districts; and only 1 Democrat - Ohio’s Zach Space -  is finding himself targeted by a TV ad.

“Just how fast is Congressman Zack Space spending your money?” asks the announcer. “Newspapers say Space and Nancy Pelosi authorized 1.2 trillion dollars in spending in less than two months. Now they’re spending even faster. Nancy Pelosi pushed a budget with a trillion dollar deficit. And Space voted to let Nancy Pelosi get her way.”

Space picked-up an open seat in 2006, boosted by the scandals that engulfed Rep. Ney; in 2008, he easily won re-election, 60% to 40%. He is certainly vulnerable in 2010 because he represents a conservative district that voted for McCain 52% to 45%; yet, he looks to be a good fit for the district and he is less obviously endangered than many Democrats who won their first election last fall.

That the NRCC is choosing to make this the one district in which they are airing a TV ad is a recognition on the GOP’s party that OH-18 is the type of district they will need to contest if they want any hope of meaningfully cutting the Democrats’ majority next year: Just as winning back TX-22 and KS-02 was not enough in 2008, winning back heavily conservative seats like AL-02 and ID-01 will not do much for the GOP in 2010. What they need is to reconquer conservative districts with relatively entrenched incumbents.

Just like OH-18, many of the 43 districts that are now being targeted by the NRCC meet that description. First, the 9 districts that are being targeted by radio ads:

Allan Grayson (FL-18), Debbie Halvorson (IL-11), Charlie Melancon (LA-03), Dina Titus (NV-03), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Michael Arcuri (NY-24), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Chet Edwards (TX-17)

5 of these Democrats were first elected in 2008, and 2 others are sophomore lawmakers. While there are no surprises on this list, it is noteworthy that a number of these districts are not what we would consider the early top-tier of 2010 contests. While Dahlkemper, Shea-Porter and Grayson are sure to be on the GOP’s target list, others should be harder to defeat.

Dina Titus and Mary Jo Kilroy represent blue-trending districts, and the GOP’s confidence is certainly noteworthy - especially in NV-03, which dramatically swung to Democrats last year. While IL-11 remains a swing district, Debbie Halvorson did easily win her open seat and Obama prevailed by a decisive margin. Michael Arcuri was supposed to be ultra-safe last year but he received a shockingly low 52% - a clear indication that he has a weak base of support in NY-24 - but he will not let himself be dulled by a false sense of security in 2010. As for Charlie Melancon, he represents a conservative district but looks to be well entrenched - at least until the next round of redistricting disrupts the state’s congressional lines.

In other words, districts like NV-03, OH-15 and IL-11 are places Democrats are favored to keep but in which the GOP needs to do well if it wants to regain its status as a party that should be taken seriously and could conceivably regain a majority. The same principle applies to the 33 Democrats who are only the target of robocalls:

John Adler (NJ-03); Jason Altmire (PA-04); Tim Bishop (NY-01); John Boccieri (OH-16); Leonard Boswell (IA-03); Allen Boyd (FL-02); Chris Carney (PA-10); Gerry Connolly (VA-11); Peter DeFazio (OR-04); Steve Driehaus (OH-01); Brad Ellsworth (IN-08); Gabby Giffords (AZ-08); John Hall (NY-19); Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL); Baron Hill (IN-09); Jim Himes (CT-04); Steve Kagen (WI-08); Paul Kanjorski (PA-11); Larry Kissell (NC-08); Ron Klein (FL-22); Dan Maffei (NY-25); Eric Massa (NY-29); Jerry McNerney (CA-11); Dennis Moore (KS-03); Gary Peters (MI-09); Loretta Sanchez (CA-47); Mark Schauer (MI-07); Kurt Schrader (OR-05); Joe Sestak (PA-07); Heath Shuler (NC-11); Vic Snyder (AR-02); John Spratt (SC-05); Bart Stupak (MI-01).

The inclusion of some of these districts is expected: Adler, Altmire, Carney, Driehaus, Kagen, Kanjorski, Kissell, Klein, Massa, McNerney, Moore, Peters and Schauer have all picked-up their seat over the past two cycle, and the GOP has to test their vulnerability as soon as possible to prevent them from having the time to entrench themselves. Other districts could conceivably be vulnerable, but it’s difficult to consider Ellsworth, Herseth Sandlin, Hill or Maffei as even being part of the second-tier of competitive races - especially as the GOP has no credible candidate in sight in some of these states.

Finally, there are some truly surprising inclusions on this list, at least considering the playing field we have gotten used to over the past two cycles: Tim Bishop (NY-01), Allen Boyd (FL-02), Peter DeFazio (OR-04),  Vic Snyder (AR-02) and Bart Stupak (MI-01) are certainly not names we have gotten to used to hearing in the context of competitive races as they regularly coast to comfortable re-elections. Yet, all of these Democrats represent swing districts that are very competitive at the presidential level - all but OR-04 were won by George W. Bush in 2004, and Bush prevailed in that district four years earlier (making OR-04 one of only two district to switch from Bush to Kerry).

Bishop, Boyd, DeFazio, Snyder and Stupak remain undoubtedly favored to win another term, and for the GOP to even make one of them worry about re-election would already be a significant achievement. So the fact that these Democrats are being targeted should once again be taken as a sign that the GOP needs that it needs to seriously think about expanding the field to places it did not seriously contest over the past few cycles - places (like OR-04) it has not seriously contested for decades!

And it looks like the GOP is already having some success in its simple goal of being competitive in districts that should be competitive on paper. In AR-01 Rep. Marion Berry has had little reason to be concerned about keeping his job since he first won his seat in 1996; yet, the district has taken a dramatic swing rightward over the past decade. While AR-01 voted for Al Gore by 1% in 2000, it chose George W. Bush by 5% in 2004 and John McCain by 16% in 2008 - a dramatic collapse of Democratic performance that could open the door to a credible Republican congressional challenge.

For the NRCC to successfully put AR-01 on the radar screen will require a top-notch candidate, and the GOP is already touting buisnessman Rick Crawford, known in the district for his agricultural broadcasting. Crawford, who just formed an exploratory committee, could be all the GOP needs to test how loyal Arkansas remains to its Democratic history.