Archive for the 'OK-Sen' Category

Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn will run for re-election

Published
by
Taniel
on June 1, 2009
in OK-Gov and OK-Sen
. 4 Comments

In good news to Republicans in general and conservatives in particular, Oklahoma Senator Tom Coburn just held a press conference to announce he would run for a second term, denying Democrats a shot at a tough but winnable open seat.

Coburn is heavily favored to win re-election. Not only is he popular in Oklahoma, but it also looks highly improbable that he will draw credible opposition. The few Democrats who could perhaps put him on notice are unlikely to get anywhere near the race: Governor Brad Henry has made it clear that he does not want to move to Washington while Rep. Boren has no reason to give up his House seat for such a quixotic run.

Arguably the Senate’s most conservative member, Coburn is a determined opponent of spending legislation and he is staunchly pro-life (”I favor the death penalty for abortionists and other people who take life,” he has said). He is known for his willingness to mount solitary crusades on bills he dislikes and his use of hold privileges to prevent legislation from coming to the Senate’s floor.

In a presidential debate held in April 2008, Barack Obama justified the fact that he knew William Ayers by invoking Coburn. ”The fact is that I’m also friendly with Tom Coburn, one of the most conservative Republicans in the United States Senate, who during his campaign once said that it might be appropriate to apply the death penalty to those who carried out abortions,” he said. “Do I need to apologize for Mr. Coburn’s statements? Because I certainly don’t agree with those, either.” Though Obama then apologized to Coburn, the analogy confirms the Senator’s deserved reputation as one of teh far-right’s most mainstreamed figures.

Given Coburn’s profile, Democrats would have celebrated his departure even if his replacement had been sure to be a Republican (none of his potential replacement is as far the right); add to that the prospect that Democrats would have had a shot at the seat had Coburn retired and his decision becomes all the more disappointing for the DSCC.

Coburn’s announcement also goes a long way in settling the field in Oklahoma’s open gubernatorial race. The Senator had opened the door to pulling a reverse Charlie Crist and running for Governor - a scenario that was ruled out today. Had Coburn announced his gubernatorial candidacy, he would have obviously shaken things up: He is popular enough that he would have been the overwhelming favorite to win the Republican primary and the general election.

Instead, Rep. Mary Fallin remains the undisputed front-runner to win the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination - a position she has occupied ever since former Rep. J.C. Watt ruled out a run in May. And while Fallin will also start the general election with the upper-hand, Democrats (who have credible nominees) definitely have a shot to beat her - something they would not have had against Coburn.

Poll watch: Oklahoma remains a red state, Reid’s weak numbers look great compared to Paterson’s

Published
by
Taniel
on May 19, 2009
in NV-Sen, NY-Gov and OK-Sen
. 2 Comments

Oklahoma: Tom Coburn is popular and Brad Henry is no miracle worker

While Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry has been insisting that he is not interested in serving in Congress, the DSCC is still trying to recruit him and Democrats believe that his entry would make the state’s Senate seat one of the Democrats’ top takeover opportunities - especially if Senator Tom Coburn retires, as he has said he might.

But a new PPP poll of this race suggests that, while Henry would be far stronger than Democrats typically are in Oklahoma, his popularity is simply not enough to overcome the depth of the state’s conservatism. The poll’s other finding is that Senator Tom Coburn, one of the Senate’s most conservative members, looks invulnerable and the race should not be contested as long as he runs for re-election:

  • Coburn’s approval rating is a very solid 59%. He is more appreciated than Henry, who is popular but not overwhelmingly so: 52% approve of his action, 36% disapprove.
  • If Coburn were to run for re-election, he would beat Henry 52% to 40%. Against Rep. Dan Boren, Coburn leads 53% to 36%.
  • If the race was open, Rep. Tom Cole and former Rep. J.C. Watts would have a slight advantage. Cole is ahead of Henry 44% to 43% and Boren 42% to 40%; Watts leads Henry 45% to 44% and Boren 46% to 41%.

Somewhat surprisingly, Henry does not look to be that much stronger than Boren. Sure, he is within the margin of error against Cole and against Watts, but the fact that this popular Governor is unable to muster any sort of lead before the NRSC even starts to attack him as too liberal for the state is just a testament to Oklahoma’s conservatism. (In what other state would someone like Coburn be so popular?)

In short, Henry is no miracle worker - and he is no Kathleen Sebelius, who led the GOP’s candidates by double-digit in a hypothetical poll of the Kansas Senate race conducted earlier this year.

What is most important about this poll is that it will be virtually impossible for the DSCC to recruit Henry if they cannot point to polls that show that he would be favored to win an open seat. Since the man already does not particularly want to serve in the Senate, why would he jump in the race if it looks like he will have to fight a tough and uphill battle?

Nevada: Where’s the challenger?

Mason Dixon’s poll of Nevada confirms what we have known for months: Harry Reid is very unpopular in his home state. But low approval ratings are not enough to defeat an incumbent - some sort of challenger needs to emerge. Let’s get to the numbers:

  • Only 35% of Nevadans say they will vote to re-elect Reid; 45% say they want to replace him. 17% say they will consider an alternative. Needless to say, 35% is a miserable re-elect number for an incumbent who is as famous as Reid.
  • 50% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Reid, compared to 38% who have a favorable view. These numbers look all the more pathetic when compared to those of the state’s junior Senator, John Ensign: 53% have a favorable impression of him, while only 18% have an unfavorable impression. (Obama’s numbers: 55-30).

This poll paints a pretty bleak landscape for Reid, and there is no question that the Senate Majority Leader would be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle if a credible challenger emerged. But there is still no evidence that the GOP will be able to recruit such a candidate: Joe Heck is running for Governor, Brian Krolicki is indicted, Dean Heller is believed to be eying the Governor’s race and Jon Porter recently took a job in a lobbying firm in DC. Republicans have been left touting John Chachas, a banker who is based in New York.

New York: No improvement in Paterson’s numbers

Rasmussen’s New York survey contains one piece of good news for David Paterson: The pollster did not test the Democratic primary, so there is no new set of results showing the Governor crushed by Andrew Cuomo. But he is soundly defeated by two Republicans in the general election:

  • Against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson trails by a staggering 58% to 30%! Against George Pataki, the margin is smaller but still decisive: 47% to 33%.
  • Andrew Cuomo is in the driver’s seat, however: He leads Giuliani 55% to 37% and crushes Pataki 57% to 29%.

Rarely have we seen such huge disparities between the general election performances of two members of the same party - especially when there is no name recognition differential. Against Giuliani, Cuomo performs 56% better than Paterson does! It would be interesting to see how Giuliani fares against other Democrats like Tom Suozzi so we can see how competitive Giuliani would be if he faces a Democrat who is electable (unlike Paterson) but also vulnerable (unlike Cuomo).

For national parties, it’s time to increase the pressure

Published
by
Taniel
on May 9, 2009
in IL-Sen, NH-Sen, NY-Sen and OK-Sen
. 2 Comments

As the landscape of the 2010 elections is starting to take shape, both parties are starting to increase the pressure on prominent politicians to conform to their wishes. The highest-profile examples of this dynamic are taking place in Kentucky, where the NRSC has just about finished cornering Jim Bunning, and in Pennsylvania, where the Democratic establishment is trying to ensure Arlen Specter a clean path to his new party’s nomination. But similar dynamics are occurring elsewhere.

Oklahoma: The DSCC turns its attention to Brad Henry

The NRSC got Charlie Crist to consider running for Senate when no one was expecting him to entertain the thought, so why should the DSCC not try to convince a reluctant Governor of its own? Oklahoma’s Brad Henry has made it clear that he is not interested in serving for Congress, suggesting that he is more comfortable in an executive position. Yet, the popular Governor would be the Democrats’ best hope to pick-up this seat if Senator Tom Coburn retires, as he has himself suggested he might do.

Well, the DSCC has reportedly been talking to Henry to convince him that life in the Senate might be worth the move. It is hard to see Henry run if Coburn does not retire, but his entry in an open race would be a huge recruitment coup for the DSCC - so huge that Democratic officials are sure to keep pressing until Henry issues a Shermanesque statement.

New Hampshire: Does Judd Gregg ever stick to a decision?

It is no secret Republicans have been trying to convince New Hampshire Senator Judd Gregg to reconsider his decision to retire, but the stakes are getting higher and the NRSC must be getting more desperate by the day as no one looks willing to seek the party’s nomination.

While Gregg did not suggest that he is willing to consider seeking another term, a recent CQ article has raised some eyebrows. “It’s coming from different people, including some in the leadership. They’ve got nothing else to say. It’s like saying, ‘Good morning.’ They don’t want me to retire,” Gregg told to CQ. The article goes on to say that the Senator “will continue to listen to the entreaties” before getting Gregg to offer comments that sound less definite than his previous statements: “I’m settled in. I’m comfortable with where I am.”

A recent UNH survey found that Gregg would crush Paul Hodes by 16%, so his re-entry would be quite a relief for the NRSC. Yet, is there a point at which a politician changes his plans so often as to ridicule himself?

Illinois: Will the establishment abandon Giannoulias to rally around a Kennedy?

For a while, it looked like Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias would be the Democratic establishment’s candidate in the Illinois Senate race, creating tough circumstances for Rep. Jan Schakowsky and Senator Roland Burris. But the news that Chris Kennedy (son of Robert and head of Chicago’s Merchandise Mart Properties, Inc.) is considering running looks to have altered the race: Rahm Emanuel has reportedly been saying that Kennedy, who The Sun-Times reports is likely to run, would be the most electable Democratic candidate.

The Kennedy fetish has gotten out-of-hand over the past few months. I understand that Ted Kennedy has decided that there should be a Kennedy in the Senate to prepare his succession, but that is not reason enough for Democrats to fall on themselves to rally around any politically inexperienced Kennedy who wants to run.

While heading the Merchandise Mart Properties is no small position, it does not give one policy positions - let alone campaign skills - and I can’t help but notice that Kennedy was first hired when the Mart was owned by his family. Furthermore, there is absolutely no evidence for the contention that Chris Kennedy would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate. The same argument was made about Caroline Kennedy in New York, and she turned out to be an unmitigated disaster with few campaign skills, an entitlement complex and quickly collapsing poll numbers.

On the other hand, recruiting Chris Kennedy makes perfect sense: Roland Burris is the only African-American Senator, so the symbol of replacing him with a member of the disenfranchised Kennedy family would be a sure political winner.

New York: A one-man operation to save Kirsten Gillibrand

In the first few weeks of Kirsten Gillibrand’s senatorial tenure, Chuck Schumer chose not to get too close to the David Paterson’s controversial appointee even though she was long seen as a Schumer protegee. Yet, it looks like Schumer is now comfortable enough that Gillibrand will not drive him down that he is erecting himself as her mentor and mounting a one-man operation to get Gillibrand through the Democratic primary.

A much-discussed New York Times article on the Schumer-Gillibrand relationship revealed that the senior Senator is helping his new colleague collect the support of the Democratic establishment. And Schumer is powerful enough that New York’s Democratic donors will think it over it twice before contributing to a Gillibrand challenger. Schumer is going so far as to promise “There is not going to be a primary!”

Yet, it is looking doubtful that Schumer’s clout will be enough to keep prominent Democrats out of the race. For one, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy might be saying she is pleased at the Senator’s evolution on gun control issues but she still sounds determined to run if a “younger” Democrat does not. Second, it is looking increasingly probable that Rep. Carolyn Maloney (who would arguably be a stronger candidate) will jump in the race. As I wrote last month, her hiring moves suggest she is preparing for a statewide race; now, Crain’s reports that Maloney is telling labor leaders that she will run.

GOP meltdown continues: McCain collapses in state polls, down-ballot candidates weaken

Published
by
Taniel
on October 1, 2008
in CA-04, FL-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, NJ-Pres, NM-02, NV-Pres, OK-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-Sen, TN-Pres, TX-Pres, TX-Sen and VA-Pres
. 10 Comments

[Updated with two more Obama leads in Florida] In the heels of the stunningly large leads Obama posted in the latest Quinnipiac polls, new surveys confirm that the situation is rapidly deteriorating for Republicans up and down the ballot as a perfect storm is boosting Democratic prospects.

While it is still too early to move any red states other than Iowa and New Mexico to the Obama column, the Democrat appears to have solidified his position in the states he is defending. A number of Michigan and Pennsylvania surveys released over the past week (including two early this morning) have Obama leading by high single-digits, and a new CNN survey finds him comfortably ahead in Minnesota and Strategic Vision shows him gaining in Wisconsin. Even if McCain regains his footing in red states in which he is slipping, does he still have an opening in those blue states or can Obama now lock them away?

The answer to that question could very well determine the result of the election: if McCain cannot even force Obama to worry about Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he would have to pull out an impressive (and at the moment highly unlikely) sweep of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado! Right now, the question is McCain can even save half of those, let alone all of them.

New CNN/Time polls find him jumping to leads outside of the MoE in Florida and Virginia as well as taking an edge (within the MoE) in Nevada and… Missouri. The situation is particularly worrisome for McCain in Florida, where two other surveys this evening find Obama in the lead, making it five polls in a row, four of which were released today (PPP, Q-pac, CNN, Insider Advantage, Suffolk).

When combined with Q-pac, this roundup of the presidential polls is certainly the worst installment McCain has received in the general election. And what is remarkable is that Obama is breaking 50% in most polls that are being released - he was above that threshold in all three Q-pac polls today and here again in CNN’s polls of NV, VA, FL and MN. He is also at or above 50% in the Time, Rasmussen and Research 2000 national polls:

  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Florida (polling history). In a five-way race, Obama leads by 8% (just like the Quinnipiac survey), with 3% for Ralph Nader. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied in a two-way race and Obama led in a five-way race. All CNN/Time polls were taken Sunday through Tuesday.
  • Obama leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Florida. Obama trailed by 8% three weeks ago, so this is quite a swing in his direction.
  • Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia (polling history). McCain led by 4% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% in a five-way race!
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada (polling history). Obama led by 5% in a late August CNN/Time poll. The margin of error is 4%.
  • Obama leads 54% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of Minnesota (polling history). Obama already led by double-digits in the previous CNN poll taken before the GOP convention.
  • Obama leads 49% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll of Wisconsin. He led by 3% at the beginning of September.
  • News from safer states: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 64% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Oklahoma. McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. McCain leads by 9% for the fourth poll in a row in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. And some movement towards Obama in Mississippi, where McCain leads 52% to 44%.

Obama also maintains his advantage in national polls, with 3 non-tracking polls finding him ahead by 7%.

  • In the trackings, he leads by 10% in Research 2000, 6% in Rasmussen, 5% in Diego Hotline and 4% in Gallup (the Gallup poll has tightened by 4% in two days, rare good news for the Republican nominee).
  • Obama leads 49% to 43% in a Pew national poll. Obama led by 2% in mid-September.
  • Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Democracy Corps national poll. He led by 3% last week.
  • Obama leads 46% to 42% in an Ipsos/McClatchy national poll. The race was tied three weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP national poll. The most shocking internal here is Sarah Palin’s fall: 41% said she had the right experience last month, 25% say the same today.

Republicans are also in trouble in down-the-ballot races:

  • In the Texas Senate race, Sen. Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega 50% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen poll.
  • In the Oklahoma Senate race, Sen. Inhofe leads Democratic challenger Andrew Rice 53% to 37%, a very slight tightening since SUSA’s previous poll.
  • In PA-03, a SUSA poll finds Rep. English trailing challenger Kathy Dahlkemper 49% to 45%.
  • In conservative district NM-02, an internal poll for the Teague campaign finds the Democrat leading Ed Tinsley 46% to 41%.
  • In CA-04, the GOP candidate McClintock released a poll finding him solidly in command, 47% to 39%. This comes a day after Democratic candidate Charlie Brown released a survey showing him in the lead.

The contrasting results in CA-04 remind us that internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt, though the mere fact that Democrats are this competitive in NM-02 and CA-04 (both very Republican district) is exciting news for the DCCC. But SUSA’s poll is an independent survey and it removes any doubt that PA-03 has become a somewhat unlikely battleground. While Rep. English was long viewed as vulnerable, few people would have expected him a few months ago to be this endangered a month from the election. Consider that this is the first district the NRCC has invested in as of last night (more about that later)!

As for Senate, Cornyn was already exhibiting signs of vulnerability months ago, but Democrats made little noise about this race. This is one race that the DSCC would really need to invest in for Noriega to have any chance, and the size of the Texas makes it too expensive a contest for Democrats to just drop in and just test Cornyn’s strength. If Democrats are looking to continue expanding the field of play, Georgia and Kentucky look like more promising options.

Poll watch: Obama can count on NM and IA, gains in MI; 4 VA polls split; Cazayoux, Hagan lead

Published
by
Taniel
on September 22, 2008
in CA-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, IA-Pres, LA-06, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-09, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NH-Pres, NJ-05, NJ-Pres, NM-Pres, NM-Sen, NV-Pres, OH-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-Pres, SD-Pres and VA-Pres
. 3 Comments

A deluge of state polls released over the past 24 hours test the presidential election in almost all states we might want to have results from. And, as will often be the case over the next 6 weeks, the overall picture is inconclusive, with different polls finding differing results from the same state. Today’s example of such confusion is Virginia, where both candidates lead in two polls (update: I should have noted that McCain’s two leads are within the margin of error and Obama’s two leads are outside.) The take-away lesson is clear: Results from the most competitive states are more often than not within the margin of error. That includes, in today’s polls alone, NV, NH, PA, OH, VA, MN and NC.

That said, a few results seem significant enough to merit more attention. First, Obama leads by double-digits in yet another New Mexico poll, and has a comfortable advantage in a new Iowa survey. Both of these states were won by Bush in 2004, and both appear to be solidly anchoring themselves in the Obama column. That’s not a surprise for Iowa, but New Mexico looked extremely competitive at the beginning of the summer, so while we might be getting used to Obama leads in both of these states, it is a crucial development in the presidential race as it means that Obama can count on 12 electoral votes from red states - not enough to win him the White House, but enough to put him in striking distance.

Another significant result is Rasmussen’s poll of Michigan, where Obama extends his lead to 7%. This is the second poll in a week (after Marist’s poll) to find the Democrat gaining a comfortable advantage in what is generally considered the most endangered blue state. While other surveys in the same period have shown Obama’s lead within the margin of error, this could mean that Obama is improving his position in one of the states that is hurting the most economically. It should also be noted that today’s polling roundup contains the first good news for Obama from Minnesota in quite a while (he leads by 8%) and a survey that finds him with some breathing room in Wisconsin (he leads by 5%). On to today’s full roundup:

  • Obama leads 51% to 47% among likely voters in a CNN national poll; among registered voters, he leads 51% to 46%. In the previous post-convention CNN poll, the candidates were tied at 48%. In a five-way-race, Obama leads 48% to 45% with 4% for Ralph Nader and 1% each for Barr and McKinney. Also: 47% of respondents blame Republicans for the financial crisis, while 24% blame Democrats; voters trust Obama more to deal with an economic crisis; and Obama leads by 14% when respondents are asked who represents change.
  • As for the trackings, Obama leads in all fours: He is suddenly boosted up in Diego Hotline (49% to 44%), maintains a 1% lead in Rasmussen and a 4% lead in Gallup (48% to 44%) and loses one point to lead 48% to 42% in Research 2000.
  • Obama leads 51% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. Obama led by 4% last month. He trails by 3% among independents and looks very solid among Democrats.
  • McCain leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. Both candidates have high party loyalty, independents favor McCain.
  • Obama leads 49% to 46% among likely voters in an ABC/Washington Post poll of Virginia; among registered voters, he leads 50% to 44%. Both candidates have very strong party loyalty, while independents split. [Update: I should have noted this, but Obama has a 5% lead among likely voters (outside of the MoE), when Barr and Nader are included. Among registered voters, Obama leads by a full 51% to 43% in a four-way race!)]
  • McCain leads 48% to 46% in an ARG poll of Virginia.
  • McCain leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. He led by 4% last month. Obama and McCain have a comparable favorability rating.
  • Obama leads 46% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll of Pennsylvania. The poll was taken last Tuesday to last Thursday.
  • Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania. Last week’s poll found a tie. The swing here is among independents - who have gone from McCain to Obama.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Michigan. He led by 5% two weeks ago. He gets an impressive 90% among Democrats.
  • McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 5% last week as well. Obama is still under 80% among independents Democrats.
  • McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Obama has managed to get himself above 80% of Democrats, but his party loyalty is still weaker than McCain’s and he trails among independents. The margin of error in this poll is a relatively high 4.5%, so McCain’s lead remains with the MoE.
  • Obama leads 53% to 42% in a PPP poll of New Mexico. Obama’s lead among Hispanics (59% to 35%) is a bit smaller than we have seen of late.
  • McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Suffolk poll of Nevada. The poll was taken over the past week.
  • McCain leads 47% to 45% in a University of New Hampshire poll of New Hampshire. That’s a 5% improvement for the Republican in what is a trusted poll in the Granite State.
  • Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota. He led by 4% last month.
  • Obama leads 48% to 47% in an ARG poll of Minnesota.
  • Obama leads 50% to 45% in an ARG poll of Wisconsin. Obama leads by 7% among independents.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in an ARG poll of Iowa.
  • Obama leads 51% to 42% in an ARG poll of New Jersey.
  • McCain leads 57% to 39% in an ARG poll of Georgia.
  • McCain leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of South Dakota.
  • Obama leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In Minnesota’s Senate race, Norm Coleman is up 48% to 47% against Al Franken in Rasmussen’s latest poll. Last month, his lead was 3%. Third-party candidate Dean Barkley only has 3% (other polls have found him much higher).
  • In North Carolina’s Senate race, Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole 51% to 45% according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Dole lead by 12% in Rasmussen’s July poll.
  • In NJ-05, GOP Rep. Scott Garrett leads 49% to 34% against Rabbi Shulman in a Research 2000 poll. McCain leads Obama 52% to 37% in the district (Bush won 57% to 43%).
  • In MO-09, Blaine Luetkemeyer leads 49% to 40% against Democrat Judy Baker in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In LA-06, an internal poll for the Cazayoux campaign has Rep. Don Cazayoux leading 48% to 32% for Bill Cassidy and 9% for Michael Jackson, a Democrat who is running as an independent. In July, Cazayoux only led by 5%. A key factor in Cazayoux’s improvement appears to be his exposure during Hurricane Gustav, as 64% approve of his Gustav-related work.

Some of these results are very encouraging for Democrats, particularly on the Senate side. There is no doubt remaining that Elizabeth Dole is in very serious trouble, as this is the second poll in a row (after PPP’s week-end survey) to find Kay Hagan leading outside of the margin of error. Those DSCC polls appear to have truly damaged Dole’s image. Democrats will also be comforted that Al Franken remains highly competitive despite the Republicans’ best attempts to discredit him.

As for House races, it would be very interesting to see independent polling out of LA-06. Don’t forget that Jackson is taking most of his votes from Cazayoux, so it is somewhat difficult to believe that Cazayoux could have that high a level of support with another Democrat hovering around the double-digit mark. But if Cazayoux enjoys any kind of advantage, that would already be a boost for Democrats, as he is one of the only Dem-held seats that are rated lean take-over in my latest House ratings. But Research 2000’s poll from MO-09 brings good news for Republicans and should damp Democratic hopes in an open seat that is deeply conservative; a SUSA poll released earlier in September found Luetkemeyer leading by 12%.

Poll watch: Obama leads in IA, PA, MI while IN remains very tight; Dems lead in AK-AL and CO-04

Published
by
Taniel
on September 19, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Pres, AK-Sen, AL-Pres, CO-04, IA-Pres, IN-Gov, IN-Pres, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, MD-01, ME-Sen, MI-Pres, ND-Pres, NJ-Sen, OH-Pres, OK-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-Pres, WA-Gov and WA-Pres
. 7 Comments

Another day of strong polling results for Obama - this time at the state level. SUSA confirms that the Illinois Senator can feel more confident about Iowa than about many Kerry states, Marist finds larger leads than we have seen lately for Obama in the crucial states of Michigan and Pennsylvania (two states that are quasi-must wins for Obama) and two surveys from Indiana find the race within the margin of error. Who knew the Hoosier State would be polled so much?

What is fascinating about the Marist polls is that the surveys were taken over the week-end (thus before the financial crisis exploded) in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and at the beginning of this week in Michigan. The share of voters who say that they are most concerned about the economy is far greater in the Michigan poll (51%), which explains why Obama has such a large lead and confirms that the dominance of economic issues this week is helping fuel Obama’s comeback. Here’s the full roundup of today’s polls:

  • First, the trackings, where the movement is less uniform than it was yesterday: Obama gains one in Research 2000 (leads 49% to 42%) and in Gallup (leads 49% to 44%). Rasmussen doesn’t move (tied at 48%) and McCain gains 3% in Diego Hotline (but still trails 45% to 44%).
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Marist poll of Ohio. The two are tied among registered voters. Those who say that the economy is the most important issue for them vote Obama by 14%. Obama gets 90% of Democrats. This poll was taken Thursday through Sunday.
  • Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Marist poll of Pennsylvania. The margin is 3% among registered voters. Obama gets 87% of Democrats and leads among independents. This poll was taken Thursday through Sunday.
  • Obama leads 52% to 43% in a Marist poll of Michigan. The margin is the same among registered voters. Obama gets 92% of Democrats, leads by 14% among those who say the economy is the most pressing issue. This poll was taken Tuesday and Wednesday, after the Wall Street collapse.
  • McCain leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Indiana. He led by 6% in August.
  • McCain leads 47% to 44% in an ARG poll of Indiana.
  • Obama leads 54% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Iowa. He gets 89% of Democrats and leads by 11% among independents. Among voters who are sure of their vote, he leads by 15%.
  • McCain leads 53% to 42% in an ARG poll of North Dakota.
  • Obama leads 50% to 44% in an ARG poll of Washington.
  • McCain leads Obama 64% to 31% in a SUSA poll of Alabama.
  • McCain leads 61% to 34% in an ARG poll of Oklahoma.

There is good news for McCain as well in this batch of surveys, most notably his strong margin in North Dakota (a state Obama has been contesting). A Rasmussen poll last week had found McCain jumping to a strong lead there after struggling through the summer. Republicans will also be satisfied to see that Obama is struggling in yet another poll from Washington - confirming that the Northwestern state is far less safe than people thought a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot:

  • Betsy Markey leads Rep. Marilyn Musgrave 47% to 38% in a Grove Insight poll for Emily’s List of CO-04.
  • Andy Harris and Frank Kratovil are tied at 36% in a DCCC poll of MD-01.
  • Mark Begich leads Ted Stevens 50% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll of Alaska’s Senate race.
  • Susan Collins leads 55% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Maine’s Senate race.
  • Mitch Daniels leads Long Thompson 56% to 40% in a Rasmussen poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race.
  • Daniels leads Long Thompson 46% to 42% in a Selzer poll of that same race.
  • Dino Rossi inches ahead 48% to 47% against Gregoire in a Strategic Vision poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race.
  • Lautenberg leads 49% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New Jersey’s Senate race.
  • Chambliss leads 52% to 33% in an internal poll conducted for his campaign in Georgia’s Senate race.
  • Inhofe leads 55% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Oklahoma’s Senate race.

The House races bring some excellent news for Democrats. Musgrave and Young are among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, and those are not isolated polls. The CO-04 survey, for instance, confirms what SUSA found a few weeks ago. Democrats have been trying to kick Musgrave out for a few cycles, and it looks like this could be their year. As for MD-01, it has a very high percentage of undecideds, and in a heavily conservative district they are more likely to vote Republican. But it remains remarkable that Democrats are competitive in a district the GOP should be safe in.

As for the Senate races, Democrats will be satisfied that Begich is holding on to a lead, though the race is undoutedly much tighter than they would like it to be. There isn’t much else for the DSCC to get excited about here. Tom Allen, Bruce Lunsford, Jim Inhofe and Jim Martin are making little to no inroads in their respective Senate races, making it increasingly unlikely that Democrats will be able to contest more than the 9 races they have already put in play.

Poll watch: Both parties have results to celebrate

Published
by
Taniel
on September 10, 2008
in AK-Sen, MI-Pres, MO-Pres, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, ND-Pres, NH-Pres, NM-Pres, NM-Sen, OK-Sen, PA-04, PA-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-Gov and WV-Pres
. 5 Comments

After two weeks of relatively few state polls, the pace has undoubtedly quickened and should continue to do so over the next two months. Given that the race is close, that means that both parties should have numbers to celebrate in each day’s polling wave, and today is a clear sign of that. With all eyes on NC after yesterday’s disastrous (but suspicious) SUSA poll, two new surveys from the state find the race remaining very tight; Obama can also be comforted by CNN surveys finding him ahead outside of the MoE in NH and MI, and by a curious poll finding a tighter-than-expected margin in WV. All these polls from crucial states were taken in the aftermath of the GOP convention but find little evidence of a McCain bounce.

But McCain has some good numbers as well, including a (narrow) lead in the crucial state of New Mexico, where most recent polls were finding Obama up by large margins, and surges in ND (where yesterday’s . He also posts leads outside of the MoE in MO and VA and gets dangerously close in Pennsylvania. Except for NM and ND (both polled by Rasmussen), the numbers are in line what we have been seeing through the summer and here again there is little post-convention shift at the level of the key battlegrounds.

Before going on to the full rundown, it is important to point out once again that McCain does seem to be enjoying a big bounce among independents. It’s now Fox News’s turn to find McCain jumping to a big lead in that group, and that happens because undecided independents made a choice rather than Obama bleeding support. In a sense, this should reassure Obama that the bounce certainly has the potential of fading - what group is more susceptible of changing its mind than independents who stopped being undecided in the immediate aftermath of a convention?

On to the long list of the day’s presidential polls, where Obama leads in every state won by Kerry in 2004 and McCain leads in every state won by Bush in 2004:

  • First, the trackings: Rasmussen finds the bounce fading, with Obama recapturing a small advantage, 48% to 47%; similarly, Diego-Hotline has the race back to a tie at 45% (the gender gap is shrinking on both sides, independents still favor McCain). Gallup, however, shows McCain’s lead holding at 5% for the third straight day, 48% to 43% - albeit the number of undecideds has slightly risen.
  • McCain leads 45% to 42% in a Fox News national poll taken Monday-Tuesday. This is largely due to a 16% bounce among independents. In August, indies broke 31-30 for Obama, now 46-31 for McCain. Also, independents are split when asked which ticket will bring more change to Washington, but a lot of them refuse to answer.
  • McCain leads 49% to 47% in the crucial state of New Mexico (polling history). This is McCain’s first lead in a Rasmussen poll. Obama led by 4% in August, 5% in July and 8% in June.
  • McCain leads 48% to 45% in another poll from North Carolina, an internal survey for the Perdue campaign. The survey’s partisan breakdown is 46% Dem, 35% Rep (that mirrors the actual numbers).
  • Obama leads 51% to 45% in a CNN poll of New Hampshire (polling history). This poll (like the 3 other CNN surveys listed below) was taken Sunday through Tuesday, in the aftermath of the GOP convention.
  • Obama leads 49% to 45% in a CNN poll of Michigan (polling history). A very worrisome sign for Obama, however, is that McCain leads by 18% in the Detroit suburbs that were the home of Reagan Democrats. Bush won those counties by 1%.
  • McCain leads 50% to 46% in a CNN poll of Virginia (polling history). This is his biggest lead since May… though it’s a narrow one. Very interestingly, Obama does much better than Kerry in the Norfolk area, but not in Northern Virginia - that’s obviously the region Obama needs to build up margins, and given the elections in 05 and 06 he is likely to do so.
  • McCain leads 55% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of North Dakota. This is a big jump (they were tied in July), just as in Montana yesterday.
  • McCain leads 44% to 39% in a MBE poll of West Virginia. I have not heard of this group; the only other recent WV poll is a Rasmussen survey from early June that found McCain leading by 8%.
  • McCain leads 64% to 33% in Rasmussen’s first post-Palin poll from Alaska.

It is striking that the tightest numbers from a blue state come from Pennsylvania and not from Michigan and New Hampshire; it will be very interesting to see whether other surveys find a similar tightening in the Keystone State, and whether we are back to the familiar situation of PA looking more crucial than MI.

It will also be crucial to find out whether McCain can capitalize on his gains in North Dakota and New Mexico. The latter was moved in the lean Obama category in my latest ratings, and Democrats were hoping to feel relatively confident about that state and Iowa. While Virginia’s numbers are also troubling for Obama, they remain tight and two other polls released in the past two days find the race well within the MoE.

Finally, this leaves us with North Carolina. All polls have shown a 2-5% race for months now, and here two more polls find the same margin. The key difference with SUSA’s poll is the partisan breakdown. PPP and the Perdue poll have a large advantage for Democrats while SUSA had shown a massive shift towards the GOP for a 41-40 edge. But Democrats do actually dominate the state’s registration numbers: 45.3% of voters are registered Democrats, 32.7% are registered Republicans. If the GOP can over-perform, it would certainly be in a strong position but we will need to see more evidence of that.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Three polls from North Carolina’s gubernatorial race. In the suspicious SUSA survey, Pat McCrory leads Beverly Perdue 49% to 41% - his first lead. In PPP’s latest poll, Perdue gets 41% to McCrory’s 40%. And in Perdue’s internal poll, she leads 46% to 40%.
  • Three polls as well from North Carolina’s Senate race (polling history). In SUSA, Dole retains an advantage, 48% to 40%. In PPP, Hagan is up 43% to 42%. (PPP’s previous survey released two weeks ago found Hagan leading by 3%.) In Perdue’s internal poll, Dole is up 48% to 46%.
  • In Alaska, yet another poll finds Ted Stevens climbing back (polling history). Rasmussen shows that he is within 2% of Mark Begich (48% to 46%) after trailing by 9% right before his indictment and 13% right after.
  • In New Mexico, Rasmussen continues to show tightening results in the Senate race. Tom Udall now leads Steve Pearce 51% to 44%. The 10% lead Rasmussen had found in mid-August was already considered a disappointing result for Udall.
  • In the Oklahoma Senate race, Jim Inhofe crushes Andrew Rice, 56% to 34%.
  • In Washington’s gubernatorial race, Dino Rossi has his first lead in many months in SUSA’s latest polling, 48% to 47%.
  • In PA-04, an internal poll for the Hart campaign shows the former Republican congresswoman trailing 49% to 44% against current Rep. Jason Altmire.

Here again, it is hard to know what to make of the NC polls, though we can probably agree that both the gubernatorial and senatorial races are presently too close to call. In Alaska, this is now the third poll to find a significant Stevens bounce, and it does look like that race is once again too close to call. But the result of that match-up is almost entirely dependent on Stevens’ trial, which will be starting shortly.

Also, PA-04 is rated toss-up in my latest House ratings, and for an incumbent to be under 50% is always sign of trouble (though less so when the challenger is a well-known former representative). New Mexico’s Senate also is showing interesting trendlines, though Rasmussen is the only pollster to find that Udall might not be as favored as he used to be. Remember that the NRSC looked to be pulling the plug on Pearce two weeks ago.

Poll watch: In convention aftermath, McCain surges in NC and MT but national NBC finds dead heat

Published
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Taniel
on September 9, 2008
in FL-Pres, MD-Pres, MI-Pres, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NJ-Pres, Nat-Poll, OK-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-04, WA-Gov and WI-Pres
. 4 Comments

Update: SUSA’s poll also tested North Carolina’s gubernatorial match-up and finds Pat McCrory leading by 8%, which is out of line with every single poll we have seen of this race. This suggests that (1) there might be a problem with the sample/partisan breakdown or (2) that the past 10 days have so improved the GOP brand that they are posting gains up and down the ballot. But this much of a shift is not being picked up by any other polls, so the fact that McCrory is so far ahead makes me doubt that option 2 could manifest itself this clearly already. All of this only ups the stakes for polls to come in the coming days (and PPP has gone in the field in North Carolina to test SUSA’s survey).

Original post: This morning, Gallup released a breakdown of its tracking results by partisan affiliation, revealing that McCain’s boost had been powered by a massive surge among independents. McCain’s 15% lead was much higher than any margin either candidate had enjoyed since the beginning of Gallup’s trackings. Other national polls - CBS and ABC - showed McCain gaining an advantage among independents.

Now, a North Carolina poll is finding two significant shifts that are boosting McCain. First the Republican is surging among independents; second, the partisan breakdown has dramatically shifted to go back to what it was in 2004. Other polls have also found an increase in the proportion of self-identified Republicans. If this does not fade in upcoming polls, it would make a huge difference in our assumptions about the election.

However, and before Democrats panic, these are the kinds of changes that are directly related to the GOP convention, and thus the kinds of changes that might fade once the bounce phase is over. The GOP hopes that the Palin boost will keep partisan identification and independent allegiances where it is now; Democrats hope that Obama hammering McCain with “more of the same” ads and focusing on the economy will tamper GOP enthusiasm and shift numbers back. We will know more about this in the coming week.

In any case, these changes allow McCain to capture his first double-digit lead in NC since January - and a big one at that, twenty percent. Keep in mind that the poll was taken Saturday to Monday, in the immediate post-convention aftermath, so we will certainly have to wait for a poll to be taken at another time before drawing conclusions. But another poll from a red state - Montana - also finds McCain surging ahead for the first time of the campaign, suggesting that the convention and the Palin pick might have allowed him to boost his position in red state by solidifying and exciting his base.

Indeed, it is noteworthy that the numbers in battleground states are staying much more stable than in red states right now. If that means that most of McCain’s bounce is concentrated on places he should have won but was underperforming, that could be fine for Democrats: while they ought to feel frustrated if they lose their opening in MT and NC, those states are nowhere as important as CO, FL, OH, VA, and NV.

All of this is to say that there is much for McCain supporters to be excited about over the past two days, but Obama backers should certainly not panic until there are signs that McCain’s bounce is here to stay. I repeat: McCain should be very happy with his bounce but we should wait a few more days and a few more polls before writing states off and drawing big conclusions. After all, remember that there almost no state polls taken in the immediate aftermath of the Denver convention. Here’s today’s full rundown:

  • In the day’s most important national poll, NBC News/WSJ finds McCain closing the gap with Obama but not as much as other surveys have found. The survey was taken Saturday through Monday and has Obama up (well within the margin of error) 46% to 45%. In August, the margin was 3%.
  • Both candidates get about 90% of their base. Republicans are three times more enthusiastic than they were in July. Obama’s lead among women is down to 4%, but one strange statistic: McCain leads among women 18-49! 52% of respondents say Obama would bring real change, versus 35% for McCain. That is an improvement over the 21% he got in June, but it shows the challenge of McCain’s suddenly running on a platform of change.
  • Today’s tracking polls: Rasmussen is back to its Sunday result (a tie), Gallup does not move since yesterday (49% to 44% for McCain) and Diego Hotline has McCain leading by 1%.
  • ARG’s national poll has Obama at 47% and McCain at 46%. The poll was taken Saturday through Monday and shows a 5% gain for McCain. Almost all the change comes from registered Democrats, where Obama is back under 80%.
  • In what is the day’s biggest shocker, SUSA finds McCain jumping to a huge lead in North Carolina, 58% to 38%. This is primarily due to Obama’s collapse among independents - he now trails by 25% among those voters - as well as a shift in partisan identification. It was 46% Democratic, 33% Republican last month; now, it’s 41% Rep, 40% Dem - the same as 2004. If that shift is confirmed in the coming weeks, it would be a dramatic change whose impact cannot be overstated.
  • Another important poll comes from Montana, where Rasmussen finds McCain surging to his first double-digit lead, 53% to 42%. The state was tied last month. This poll was taken on Monday night.
  • In Florida (polling history), PPP finds a slight improvement for McCain, whose lead is now outside of the MoE, 50% to 45% (McCain led by 3% last month). The big shift has occurred among white voters, as undecideds are breaking McCain’s way and as he is now leading 61% to 34% among that group. The sample is more Republican than last month’s (+2 instead of -3) and in line with the 2004 exit poll.
  • In Michigan (polling history), Strategic Vision finds a 1% race, 45% to 44%. It’s SV’s first poll from the state.
  • In Wisconsin (polling history), Strategic Vision shows Obama’s lead tightening to 46% to 43%. Last month, Obama led by 5%. This is Obama’s smallest lead in the state since he got the nomination.
  • In New Jersey, Farleigh Dickinson finds Obama leading 47% to 41% - a bounce for McCain from the 49% to 33% margin in June.
  • No surprises in SUSA’s Oklahoma poll, as McCain crushes Obama 65% to 32%.
  • Finally, a new IBD/TIPP national poll finds Obama leading 45% to 40%. I am putting this one last because this survey was taken from last Tuesday through Saturday - so it is older than much of hte polls we have been seeing.

Just like yesterday, most polls from key battleground states show little movement, though McCain is posting small gains in a number of them - Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Montana North Carolina polls are of course the exception, and if McCain can keep up his gains in them it would be a huge relief for Republicans. Apart from that, the list of battlegrounds is looking to be the same as ever, and we will be keeping an eye on Wisconsin, where Strategic Vision typically posts narrower numbers than other polling outlets.

Monday polls: Single-digit races in NY and GA, Coleman and Chambliss lose ground

Published
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Taniel
on August 18, 2008
in GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IL-Pres, MN-Sen, NY-Pres, OK-Sen, TN-Pres and Uncategorized
. 1 Comment

The Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls are still, again, always stable and the presidential polls released today are not from the most exciting of battleground states:

  • In Georgia, Rasmussen finds McCain leading Barack Obama 50% to 43%, with Bob Barr at 3% (53% to 44% with leaners). Last month, McCain was leading by 9% (11% with leaners). As is often the case in Southern states, Obama’s favorability ratings (46%) is higher than McCain’s (39%), but the differential is perhaps not as stark as we are used to.
  • In New York, Obama’s lead is down to single-digits in a new Siena poll, 47% to 39% (down from a 13% margin in July). Barack Obama’s favorability rating is down to 54%, though that he still superior to McCain’s 49%.
  • No surprise in Illinois, where Obama leads 53% to 38% - the margin remains the same when leaners are included.
  • In Tennessee, a poll conducted by Ayres McHenry & Associates for Senator Lamar Alexander (and which I reported earlier) also tested the presidential match-up. McCain leads 51% to 36%.

The day’s finding, then: Georgia and New York are within single-digits. This is more expected in the former (no survey has found McCain leading by double-digits in Georgia since June - and that was Rasmussen) than in the latter (except for Siena’s previous delivery, the smallest margin recorded in summer polls from New York is 18%). Furthermore, the McCain campaign would not even dream of spending a dime in the Empire State, whereas Obama has invested in Georgia and devoted resources to a voter registration effort there.

But we did learn last week that Obama’s latest ad would not air in Georgia and Indiana. It is unclear whether Democrats are keeping up their investment in Georgia (we did soon find out that the Obama campaign was airing an Indiana-specific ad, after all), but if they are not McCain can certainly breath easier. Also note that Obama would probably need Bob Barr to be stronger than 3% in his home-state to clinch a victory here.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In the Minnesota Senate race (polling history), SUSA brings better news to Al Franken who cuts his losing margin by 6%. Trailing by 13% a month ago, he is now behind 46% to 39%. Of course, that still leaves Norm Coleman comfortably ahead. SUSA also tested Faris’s primary challenge against Franken and finds the match-up surprisingly close with many undecideds (45% to 27%).
  • In the Georgia Senate race, Rasmussen finds a narrower-than-expected margin, with Senator Chambliss leading 48% to 43% against Democrat Jim Martin (50% to 44% with leaners). Last month, Chambliss led by 11%.
  • In the Oklahoma Senate race, Sen. Inhofe leads 50% to 41% against state Senator Andrew Rice - but this is a poll commissioned (and released) by the DSCC and conducted by Benenson. In the past two months, Rice has reduced the margin by 11%, but note that a Sooner poll released in early August had Inhofe leading by 22%.

The numbers from Georgia are the same than those of the DSCC-commissioned poll released just last week. We have not yet reached the point at which we can include Georgia in the list of competitive Senate races, but Democrats are clearly more confident about their chances now that Jim Martin has won the nomination. And the key sign that we should at least keep an eye on Georgia is that Chuck Schumer appears very interested in contesting it - meaning Chambliss could soon be hit by negative ads funded by the DSCC. Georgia was the sleeper race in 2002, and Democrats would love nothing more than to avenge that painful loss.

Also consider that this is the first non-Rasmussen poll in months to find Al Franken within single digits! We have often discussed how all pollsters were showing Franken in a hole - all except Rasmussen - and SUSA was consistently finding Norm Coleman with a comfortable lead. If this survey is confirmed by other polls (perhaps that of Quinnipiac which I am guessing should be released soon), it could mean that Al Franken is finally starting to put the spring scandals behind him and that Norm Coleman is starting to get caught up in his own ethical problems (surrounding the rent of his Washington apartment). At the same time, Franken better be careful to not waste to much capital on the September 9th primary. Faris is hitting him with very tough TV ads, and an 18% primary margin is much narrower than expected.

McCain crushes Obama in AZ, leads in FL and gains in MA (Update with new Zogby national)

Published
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Taniel
on August 4, 2008
in AL-Sen, AZ-Pres, CT-Pres, FL-Pres, MA-Pres, Nat-Poll and OK-Sen
. 5 Comments

Update: The plot thickens and polls continue to show whatever national advantage Obama had to be fading. After nearly three months without a single national poll showing him ahead, McCain led in last week’s USA Today/Gallup poll, Rasmussen’s tracking this morning and he now gains 11% in Zogby’s national poll, 42% to Obama’s 41% with 2% each for Bob Barr and Ralph Nader. (Last month, Obama led by 10%; 5% in June and 10% in May). Zogby finds Obama slipping among all demographic groups, including independents, Democrats (Obama is at a weak 74%) and women.

Zogby’s previous poll was released at a time many polls showed a mid-to-high single digit lead for Obama - leading to talk that Obama could build a solid advantage by the end of the summer. Now, the race looks to be as tight as it’s been since June 3rd. Is the Obama camp not letting its opponents’ attacks dictate the conversation, and is this not the point at which the Obama camp finally starts using footage like McCain’s “bomb Iran?” Of course, the campaign might be preparing to unveil its vice-presidential pick (perhaps Wednesday morning in Indiana…) and does not want to muddy its message.

Original post: After a first polling delivery this morning - which included McCain’s first (albeit statistically insignificant) lead in a tracking poll since Obama clinched his party’s nomination - here is a second daily update. It contains strong numbers for John McCain, and it is difficult to not have the impression that polls over the past week or two have found consistently improving state results for the Arizona Senator - look at the 7 Quinnipiac polls from swing states released in two different installments, all finding McCain improving from his June results.

None of the results listed here qualifies as bad news for Obama. The two candidates are exchanging leads in Florida, Obama certainly does not need Arizona and the Rasmussen tracking from this morning was just one national poll in dozens that have shown Obama ahead. But to Democrats who have gotten used to good presidential polling over the past few months and certainly over the past few weeks, the psychological pressure can certainly mount. Overall, these polls certainly do not suggest that Obama has lost his edge, but they do point to the fact that the presidential race is a close one and there is enough polling data to back those who say that it is quickly tightening.

August will not be decisive, and any post-Labor Day news and poll is hugely more important than anything that will happen now; but the summer often sets the tone for the fall, and with the Olympic-period lull starting in four days, it does look like we will be going into the conventions without either candidate having opened a significant lead.

On to the afternoon’s state polls:

[I am not one to look for sample problems in every poll that is released, but do note that the partisan breakdown is 43% Republican and 38% Democratic. That's an improvement for the GOP over 2004, despite the fact that most polls find a significant swing leftward and the fact that Florida Democrats have made significant registration gains. In the previous SUSA poll from Florida, Democrats had a 9% edge in the sample; the latest PPP poll had as many Democrats and Republicans and the latest ARG poll had a 5% Democratic advantage. This is not to say that SUSA's poll is wrong - I don't like cherry-picking polls, and a lot of problems have problems like this. But I am just pointing out something we should take into account when interpreting the results.]

  • In Arizona, the second poll of the day confirms that McCain has less to fear than some Republicans feared. He is leading 52% to 36% (up from 9% last month) in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 57% to 38% with leaners. Obama’s favorability rating is dismal: 43% to 55%.
  • In Massachusetts, Obama’s margin of victory plunges from 23% to 9% in the latest Suffolk poll as Obama is now ahead 47% to 38%.
  • In Connecticut, Obama leads 51% to 36%. His favorability rating is 61%, comparing to 41% for McCain.
  • In Alabama, finally, McCain crushes Obama 55% to 37%, 58% to 38% with leaners.

With two polls in one day finding McCain with very solid leads in his home state, talk of Arizona emerging as a potential battleground state should be tabled. Unless other evidence emerges to challenge these surveys, it is simply too unlikely that any candidate will lose his home state - particularly a Republican in red-leaning Arizona. Gore lost Tennessee, sure, but he also lost the rest of the South.

As for Massachusetts, longtime readers of this blog know that I have long expressed amazement at how poor Obama’s numbers have been in the Bay State. Obama struggled to open any lead at all against McCain for a while in the spring, and McCain tied him repeatedly in SUSA polls. Other polling groups found Obama significantly under-performing compared to Clinton. Polls released since Obama clinched the nomination - including Suffolk’s previous survey - found Obama rising in one of the bluest states of the country, and they better hope McCain’s gains in this poll are only statistical noise. As for Connecticut, this is a Northeastern state McCain was interested in contesting but polls have shown little opening for him, leading me to move the state to the safe Obama column in early July.

Meanwhile, two Senate polls were released from races that are at best third-tier:

  • In Oklahoma, GOP Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Andrew Rice 52% to 30% in the latest Sooner poll. In the institute’s previous poll, Inhofe led 60% to 19%.
  • In Alabama, Senator Jeff Sessions crushes Vivian Davis Figures 58% to 31%, a 3% improvement since last month.

There is nothing to see in the Alabama Senate race, which has always been ranked as safe Republican in my Senate rankings. Some Democrats believe there is some potential for Andrew Rice in Oklahoma, and the DSCC did send a few paid staffers to the state a few years ago, hinting that it took such talk seriously. Yet, and though he is no beloved incumbent, Inhofe presents no obvious vulnerability and Oklahoma looks to be as red a state as any. The latest presidential poll found McCain leading by 32%, and that’s not the kind of margin a Democratic Senate challenger can easily overcome. The race is ranked 18th in my latest ratings, and it is clearly closer to the safe column than to the competitive one.

Senate: Ad wars heat up, Bloomberg helps Landrieu

Published
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Taniel
on July 28, 2008
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Senate races are getting increasingly heated and that is spilling over on the airwaves, as we saw last week with Norm Coleman’s attack on Al Franken and Franken’s quick response. Today, Colorado’s Mark Udall started airing an ad of his own, a response to an attack ad released by an independent group that informed voters that they did not “know Udall.”

Udall rejects the accusation that he has raised taxes, pointing out he has lowered them 65 times and hitting Bob Schaffer for his ties to loosely-defined “special interests.” With the electorate very discontent and with the job ratings of the White House and of Congress at abysmal lows, many candidates in either party will try to run as Washington outsiders, no matter who they are running against and how many years they themselves spent in Washington. It is true that Mark Udall is better positioned than most given the scandals that have hit Schaffer over the past few months, associating him with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

But it is on the energy issue that these two candidates have hit each other on their ties to “special interests.” Schaffer is now running on his support for oil drilling and ANWR (as are many Republicans), while Udall has long been an advocate of environmental causes and devoted one of first ads to environmental issues. Udall and Schaffer have sought to portray each other as beholden to the environmental and Big Oil lobbies - the kind of campaign that is bound to heat up considerably and also the kind of campaign in which any further public opinion shift towards drilling could help the GOP candidate.

Speaking of Big Oil… energy issues are also heating up the Kentucky Senate race, in which Mitch McConnell already went up with an attack ad against opponent Bruce Lunsford. The ad blames Lunsford for being responsible for a raise in the gas tax, with “ordinary” Kentuckyians repeating “Thanks, Bruce” at the pump:

Lunsford just released its own response ad, quoting Kentucky newspapers to blast McConnell’s ad as dishonest and hitting the incumbent Senator right back for his own responsibility in the rising price of oil. It is hard to know what to make of this early back-and-forth. For McConnell to air a negative ad against his lesser-known opponent this early is a sure sign that McConnell is taking Lunsford’s as a threat, which is encouraging news for the DSCC. On the other hand, this serves as a reminder of the huge war chest McConnell has accumulated (more than $9 million), allowing him to spend freely and attempt to drown Lunsford because he can introduce himself to voters. The Democratic candidate can self-fund his race, but he will have trouble resisting McConnell’s spending pace.

Another race in which a candidate is trying to claim the outsider mantle is Oklahoma. State Senator Andrew Rice started airing his first ad last week (you can view it here). It is a biographical spot in which Rice (a Democrat running in a very Republican state in a presidential year) is trying to introduce himself in a way that will satisfy the state’s conservative electorate. Rice mentions his faith, his years as a Christian missionary and the fact that his brother died in the World Trade Center on 9/11 (Republicans are apparently not the only ones who refer to 9/11 in non sequiturs). Rice concludes by saying he wants to change the ways of Washington.

In other words, an ad that a candidate from either party could have run, with no mention of party affiliation or who Rice is running against. The theme is change, outsider status, and independence. None of this is surprising, of course (after all, it is Oklahoma), but Rice will have to attack Senator Inhofe more frontally in the coming weeks. Running as an nonthreatening young outsider could work in an open seat, but Inhofe is a fairly entrenched (though not entirely popular) incumbent. Whether or not Rice can go that extra step will depend on money and whether Chuck Schumer is interested in spending any resources on Oklahoma airwaves.

In non-ad related Senate news, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg continues his quest to build a national centrist movement. He is now planning to hold a fund-raiser for endangered Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. Said Bloomberg’s spokesperson: “He doesn’t agree with her on every issue, but she is a moderating voice in the Senate, and he appreciates the way she works across party lines.” John Kennedy, Landrieu’s Republican opponent, fired back with a press release entitled “Latest Landrieu Endorsement: Gun-Grabbing Liberal Mike Bloomberg:” “Now Mary Landrieu is raising money at the Manhattan townhouse of anti-gun, pro-gay marriage liberal Mayor Mike Bloomberg.”

Bloomberg thus continues playing both sides of the aisle, as he has met both Obama and McCain in recent months and is helping down-the-ballot candidates of both parties. There is a fine line between being non-partisan and appearing opportunistic, as Bloomberg’s flirtations with both presidential candidates often look. From Landrieu’s perspective, meanwhile, there is a lot to gain from portraying a moderate image as she is running in one of the only states in the country that is still trending Republican. Bloomberg is too culturally liberal to help Landrieu burnish her moderate credentials, though he is certainly not well known enough for Kennedy’s attempt to make him into a liability to hurt her.

Polls: Dems get good presidential day, GOP enjoys good Senate news

Published
by
Taniel
on June 13, 2008
in IA-Pres, MA-Pres, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-Pres, OK-Pres, OK-Sen and WI-Pres
. 0 Comments

One of the most surprising fixtures of this early campaign season has been the number of Massachusetts polls finding a surprisingly tight race between Barack Obama and John McCain. SUSA’s latest poll had the Democrat leading by 5% — and that was an improvement over previous dismal SUSA findings. Other polls Obama up by 12-13%, certainly a stronger showing, but these surveys also pointed to a surprising Obama weakness in the state by finding him performing much more weakly than Hillary Clinton. Now, however, we finally get a Massachusetts poll in which Obama performs as strongly (even stronger) than he needs to:

  • Suffolk released its general election survey of the state, finding Obama leading 53% to 30%.

One or two more of those and we will be ready to move MA from “Likely Obama” to “Safe Obama.” Of course, Massachusetts isn’t the most interesting general election state but it has long been a puzzling one which is why I chose to lead with it. Other important state polls that are making news today are:

  • In Wisconsin, the renowned Badger poll released a poll finding Obama leading 50% to 37% — a very impressive margin in one of the tightest races of the past 2 elections.
  • A key finding: The partisan breakdown has shifted 12% towards Democrats since 2004.
  • In New Jersey, Quinnipiac found Obama leading but struggling to open a substantial margin. He is ahead 45% to 39%.
  • In Iowa, the 2004 red state that looks the most susceptible of falling in the Democratic column, Rasmussen finds Obama increasing his lead to a 7% margin, up from 2% last month.
  • He now enjoys the support of 77% of registered Democrats, versus 71% last month, though McCain has also increased his support among his base.
  • In the important state of North Carolina, finally, Rasmussen shows a tight race with John McCain barely ahead 45% to 43%. This is actually only a 1% tightening, and the two were tied at 47% two polls ago, but North Carolina is rarely included in the list of top tier states and every poll that shows this tight a race is treated as surprising news.
  • In Oklahoma, finally, Research 2000 released a poll showing McCain leading by only 14% in a state that Bush won by 32%.

Any sign of North Carolina being a true toss-up this November is indeed a nail in the coffin of John McCain, as it is difficult to imagine the Arizona Senator losing such a traditionally red state and somehow get an electoral college majority. An Obama upset in North Carolina would signal major difficulties for McCain in a number of other (former) Republican strongholds, starting with Virginia. Even ruby red Oklahoma is showing signs of tightening!

As for the other state, it is important to realize that as long as Obama keeps all of the Kerry states he can win a majority by simply pulling in three states that are already tinkering on the brink — Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado. Substitute the latter by Nevada and you have an electoral tie. That’s why the recent surveys showing Obama posting huge leads in traditionally tight blue states like Wisconsin and Washington are very important, as they reduce the number of places in which the Illinois Senator will have to play defense.

Fortunately for Republicans, they got great Senate news today — and unexpectedly so given the streak of terrible news that has fallen on the congressional GOP:

  • In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds Elizabeth Dole leading Kay Hagan by fourteen points following Hagan’s 1% lead last month.
  • In Oklahoma, a third-tier race that Dems have made some noise about, Sen. Inhofe leads state Senator Rice 53% to 31% in a Research 2000 poll.

The previous Rasmussen poll was taken right after Hagan’s primary victory, and it seemed that the Democratic candidate then enjoyed a short-lived bounce. In fact, there were a number of polls showing a very tight contest between the two North Carolina women mid-May, so Rasmussen’s toss-up poll should not be read as a stand-alone outlier. While the evolution is a bit more brutal than expected, the trend lines make sense as it will take more work for Democrats to get Dole truly in trouble. In any case, pulling this race out of the first-tier is essential for Republicans if they want to have a chance of limiting their losses in November. Note that the NC Senate poll is accompanied by a gubernatorial survey that finds the opposite trend:

  • Democratic Lieutenant Governor Perdue now edges out Charlotte Mayor McCrory 47% to 46%. The Republican posted a 45% to 39% lead last month.

It was clear as soon as McCrory announced his candidacy that this race woud go down to the wire, and nothing that has happened ever since has disproved that.