A credible primary challenge and a general election poll showing a low-profile opponent holding a lead - that’s a lot for a senator to go through in a single day. And if that senator is a political novice who has never before faced voters and has to run for a full term within 2 years of being appointed to his seat, this amounts to an electoral disaster. Yet, that’s what awaits Michael Bennet, the former superintendent of Denver public schools who Governor Bill Ritter unexpectedly chose as Ken Salazar’s replacement.
Romanoff’s primary challenge
Yesterday, former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff took the first step in challenging Bennet in the Democratic primary, announcing that he was forming an exploratory committee. While this had been rumored all year, we can hardly be faulted for not taking the threat entirely seriously: Based on what occurred in New York over the past few months, it’s obvious that it takes a lot for someone to pull the trigger on taking on an incumbent Democratic Senator in his party’s primary.
Romanoff served in the state House from 2000 to 2008, when he was forced out by term limits. He became the state’s first Democratic Speaker in decades when the party took control of the state House in 2004. That year, many thought Romanoff would run for Governor but he ended up passing on the race. His exit from the legislature then left him no obvious path to continue his political career as Rep. Mark Udall was the establishment’s clear choice to run in the 2008 open Senate seat.
Taking on Bennet should prove an easier path than defeating Udall would have been: The former is mostly unknown among state voters, his campaign skills remain a mystery since he has never before ran in an election. Having spent 4 years as Speaker, Romanoff has the credibility to be taken seriously, the political network to raise money and deploy surrogates. He is thus undoubtedly in a position to threaten Bennet’s hold on the Democratic nomination.
He could also capitalize on unions’ discontent towards Bennet, who was one of the most noncommittal senators on EFCA last spring and who distanced himself from the public option. (He spoke about it more warmly last week, when reports first emerged that Romanoff was on the verge of entering the race.) Back when Ritter announced his choice, there was also talk that Democratic leaders from Western and rural counties were unhappy with his pick, so we shall see whether Romanoff can benefit from any remains of that.
And yet, it’s difficult to predict how this primary will unfold. While Bennet has positioned himself as a centrist (besides EFCA and the public option, let’s cite his repeated votes in favor of the GOP’s gun rights amendments, including July’s Thune amendment), Romanoff himself does not have a staunchly progressive reputation. He was reputed to be more liberal than some of Ritter’s other Senate choices, but his record, profile and policy positions do not make it obvious that Romanoff will try to attack Bennet from the left.
As such, unlike what we are seeing in Pennsylvania and what almost occurred in New York, this primary does not look to be motivated by ideological factors and we will have to see whether labor - let alone other liberal groups - will get involved in the race. Interestingly, one of the defining issues of Romanoff’s legislative tenure looks to be his quest to reform the state’s education funding; education has of course been the focus of Bennet’s political career, so could this be a rare federal race in which education is debated?
One final note: Colorado holds an August primary, which is relatively late and could potentially hurt the Democratic nominee heading into the general election. However, Republicans are set to go through a competitive primary of their own, so both parties will be in the same boat; furthermore, the Bennet-Romanoff showdown could allow Democrats to stay in the news at a time the GOP might have been hoping to dominate news coverage thanks to its own nomination contest, so this could blunt whatever primary bounce Republicans might otherwise receive.
Trouble in November
If Bennet does survive the primary, he can’t look forward to an easy general election. A new Rasmussen survey paints quite a worrisome picture for the incumbent Senator: Weighed down by a weak favorability rating, he leads District Attorney Ken Buck 43% to 37% and he trails Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier 40% to 39%. Do I even need to tell you how dismal a sign it is for an incumbent Senator to poll below 40% - let alone to fall behind as little-known an opponent as Frazier?
(I might understand why Rasmussen did not test a match-up between Bennet and Romanoff: polling a Democratic-only race would require a bigger sample, thus more money. But I find it incomprehensible they did not include former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, who formed a campaign committee this week. I assume Norton would have enjoyed a bigger lead against Bennet, but we have never seen her tested in any public poll so we can only rely on speculation and some data would be nice.)
Democrats should not dismiss this poll as other surveys have found similar results. The most recent Colorado poll was published by PPP last month; it found Bennet trailing Bob Beauprez (who has since decided not to run) and narrowly leading Buck and Frazier, with less than 40% against both. There is no denying that Colorado is one of the NRSC’s top 2010 opportunities.
