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Poll watch, incumbents in trouble edition

Published
by
Taniel
on June 23, 2009
in NV-Sen, NY-Gov, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 1 Comment

Ohio: Strickland’s troubles do not extent to his party’s Senate candidates

Different pollsters are now on the record finding widely contrasting results in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. A few weeks after Quinnipiac showed Governor Ted Strickland crushing his Republican opponent, a new PPP survey has just found the incumbent in as vulnerable a position as can be. However, PPP agrees with Quinnipiac when it comes to the Senate race, giving the Democratic candidates a clear edge.

Let’s start with the Governor’s contest:

  • PPP finds Strickland’s approval rating at a problematic 43%, with 42% disapproving. In January, PPP pegged it at 48-35.
  • In a match-up with probable Republican nominee John Kasich, Strickland is only ahead within the margin of error, 44% to 42%. Interestingly, Kasich himself is not popular, with his favorability rating sitting at an ugly 31-30.

The race is currently rated ‘lean retention’ in my gubernatorial rankings, so it is certainly not unexpected to see this race competitive. If anything, I would be far more surprised if Strickland manages to coast to re-election as Quinnipiac suggested he might: Governors all over the country are seeing their popularity collapse as the crisis unfolds and their leadership on economic matters is contested. Ohio’s situation is certainly not rosy, and Strickland’s approval rating could still get worse.

One problem for Republicans is that Kasich does not look popular enough to win if the race is anything but a referendum on Strickland’s leadership. And yet, PPP’s results for the open Senate race suggest that Ohio voters seem to dislike all of their politicians at this point:

  • Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, both Democrats, have practically the same favorability rating as Kasich (32-31 and 32-32, respectively). Probable Republican nominee Rob Portman fares even worse, 22% to 34% - a shockingly dismal number for someone who is not particularly well known.
  • In general election match-ups, Fisher leads Portman 41% to 32% and Brunner leads 40% to 32%.

Strickland might have lost ground since January, but his fellow Democrats have improved their position.
Perhaps that indicates that Ohio remains a left-leaning state - the weight of incumbency notwithstanding; perhaps it is a reflection of Rob Portman’s dismal favorability numbers. All we can say is that PPP’s numbers are very similar to most other surveys we have seen of this race. (Quinnipiac’s May results were almost exactly identical.) In short: Both Brunner and Fisher look to be in a strong position, and it does not look (for now) that the DSCC has to worry about one candidate being less electable than the other.

Nevada: Ensign’s popularity collapses, but still remains above Reid

In mid-May, Mason Dixon released a poll finding Harry Reid posting dismal numbers. His favorability rating (38-50) was pathetic compared to fellow Nevada Senator John Ensign’s strong results (53-18). A month has passed, and with have come revelations of Ensign’s sex scandal. Mason Dixon thus revisited the state to see what had change - and the results are bad for both Senators.

On the one hand, John Ensign’s favorability rating now stands at 39-37. That might not look bad given the type of press he has gotten lately, but that’s quite a huge drop from his May numbers. Thankfully for Ensign, he does not have to face voters for another 3 years, which should give him plenty of time to improve his image. Furthermore, 62% of respondents say Ensign should not resign.

As such, the poll is far worse for Reid, who has to face voters in just a few months and posts lower numbers than Ensign: His favorability rating has also dropped (34-46). Interestingly, his approval rating stands at a more respectable 43% (against 55%), suggesting that voters have a better view of Reid’s political action than they like him as a person. And of course, the best news for Reid is that he still has no challenger, and it is looking increasingly possible that he will not face serious opposition.

No miracle for Governor David Paterson

In the latest Siena survey, Paterson’s favorability rating stands at 31% and his approval rating at 20% - the first time since February these measures have stood above 30% and 20%, respectively. I have spent enough time describing to Paterson’s collapse that it seems appropriate to point to a small sign of uptick. But the mere fact that such results could be considered good news tells you all you need to know about Paterson’s vulnerabilities.

The electoral match-ups still show no hope for recovery for the Governor, as the time at which he’ll have to decide whether he’s seeking re-election is approaching. Against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (whose favorability rating stands at 71%), Paterson is crushed 69% to 16% - a larger margin than in May. Against the also popular Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 57% to 27%. As for a Cuomo-Giuliani match-up, the Attorney General keeps a solid lead - but he has dipped below 50%: 49% to 40%.

All of these results are just what we have come to expect, so there is no need to delve on them any longer. As I have said already, I wish a polling instute tested Paterson and Giuliani against another Democrat than Cuomo to bring something new to the discussion. This Siena poll’s most interesting findings concern state politics, as the survey finds that all the protagonists in the Senate coup are understandably unpopular, starting with Pedro Espada (12-33), Malcolm Smith (12-32) and Hiram Monserrate (7-36).

Poll watch: Democrats in control in Ohio and Pennsylvania

Published
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Taniel
on May 7, 2009
in OH-Gov, OH-Sen and PA-Sen
. 0 Comments

Ohio: Strickland is popular, Democrats lead Senate race

The latest Senate polling has been encouraging for Republicans, but the DSCC can take comfort in a new Quinnipiac survey of the Ohio Senate race: Whoever the two parties nominate, Democrats would start with the upper-hand.

  • In the Democratic primary, there is no front-runner - and a huge number of undecided: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher receives 20%, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner gets 16% and state Rep. Tyrone Yates gets 4%.
  • In the Republican primary, former Rep. Rob Portman leads state Auditor Mark Taylor 29% to 8%; strangely, Taylor gets the same level of support as auto dealer Tom Ganley.
  • In the general election, Fisher crushes Portman 42% to 31% and Taylor 41% to 39%. Brunner leads Portman 40% to 32% and Taylor 38% to 29%.

The good news for Democrats: Both Brunner and Fisher look to be in a strong position to win the general election, and it does not look (for now) that the DSCC has to worry about one candidate being less electable than the other. Furthermore, these numbers are similar to those Quinnipiac found in February and March, which indicates that the Democrats’ advantage is not an outlier and that Republicans have made no success in changing the political environment.

But there is also some hope for the GOP, as far more Republicans are undecided than Democrats. That is partly explained by a differential in name recognition: Voters are more likely to be familiar with Brunner and Fisher (both of whom hold statewide office) than with Portman, who should shore up his support among Republican voters once he introduces himself.

Finally, a note about the Democratic primary numbers: While much of the establishment has lined up behind Fisher, ll polls have shown Brunner within the margin of error. A competitive race should not worry Democrats, as Ohio’s primary is early enough to leave the winner time to prepare the general election.

Quinnipiac also tests the gubernatorial race, finding strong numbers for Governor Ted Strickland:

  • 57% of voters approve of his performance, compared to 29%.
  • Against former Rep. Kasich, Strickland triumphs 51% to 32%. (Back in March, Strickland was ahead of Kasich 51% to 31%.) He also leads by double-digits against former Senator Mike DeWine, 48% to 36%.
  • In a hypothetical Republican primary, DeWine is narrowly ahead, 35% to 23%.

These are very solid numbers for the Ohio Governor. A recent poll found that voters are not enthusiastic about his handling of the economy, but the financial crisis has not made a dent in his numbers - unlike so many other Governors. Whether he can keep that up all the way to the fall of 2010 remains to be seen, but he can afford to lose a lot of supporters before looking endangered. The only sign of worry in this poll is that he dips below 50% against DeWine, but we are talking about a former Senator - hardly your typical challenger. (Also, DeWine looks somewhat unlikely to run.)

Pennsylvania: Specter controls Democratic primary

Research 2000 offered us a comprehensive look at the Pennsylvania Senate race. Unfortunately, their survey was conducted before Tom Ridge announced he would not run, and the pollster did not have time to replace the former Governor with another moderate Republican.

Let’s start with the Democratic primary, as the numbers are not encouraging for those who are hoping to see the Senator defeated:

  • Specter crushes both of his potential Democratic opponents: 56% to 11% against Joe Sestak, 60% to 5% against Joe Torsella.
  • 37% of Democrats say they will definitely vote for Specter, while 16% say they will definitely vote for someone else. (23% say they are open to someone else.) Those numbers are not as strong for Specter, but they certainly don’t suggest a wave of discontented Democrats angry at being represented by a center-right Senator.

One big qualifier: Most Democrats have no idea who Torsella or Sestak are. While only 10% have no opinion of Specter (those who do like him 54% to 36%), 56% have no opinion of Sestak and 85% have none of Torsella. On the other hand, the fact that few people know them does not explain away the fact that the Senator is well above 50%. For now, a majority Democrats are comfortable at the idea of voting for Specger

Between 24% and 28% of Democrats said they would be less likely to vote for Specter if he voted against against Obama’s budget, against EFCA or against health care reform, but between 45% and 47% say it would have “no effect” on their vote (6% to 7% say it would make them more likely). Is Specter so entrenched that nothing he does will anger his constituents?

Obviously, a lot could change in the next year and it is worth remembering that primaries tend to be far much volatile than general elections as voters generally don’t think ill of incumbents of their own party. (Kos reminds us that Lieberman led Lamont 65% to 19% in a Quinnipiac poll of the primary just four months before the election.) Furthermore, Specter just switched over to the Democratic Party, so he was enjoying a wave of good will among his new party’s base when the poll was taken.

The rest of the poll also offers valuable information:

  • In a Republican primary match-up, Toomey leads Ridge 41% to 33%.
  • In the general election, Pat Toomey trails all match-ups: 55% to 31% against Arlen Specter (independents back the incumbent 61% to 23%), 37% to 32% against Sestak (34% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 24% of Republicans) and 35% to 33% against Joe Torsella (37% of Democrats are undecided, compared to 23% of Republicans).
  • Ridge is far stronger: He is behind Specter 45% to 44% (they are tied among independents), but he crushes Sestak 50% to 36% and Joe Torsella 52% to 32%.

Toomey enjoys strong name recognition: only 23% of respondents have no opinion of him. That is very important to keep in mind when looking at his general election numbers: 86% of respondents have no idea who Joe Torsella is, while 77% know of Pat Toomey. Yet, Torsella is ahead and handily wins the vote of independents. What better illustration of the fact that Toomey would face very tough odds in the general election?

Unfortunately for the NRSC, these numbers also suggest that Toomey would be very hard to beat in a primary: 66% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of him, versus 13% who have an unfavorable one! If Ridge is trailing Toomey, what chance does someone like Gerlach have? (Note that another poll released on Monday had Ridge crushing Toomey by 40%.)

But the poll’s most striking finding is how formidable a candidate Ridge would have been in the general election: Boosted by a strong favorabilty rating, he would have ensured that the race is a toss-up against whomever Democrats nominate. His decision not to run was arguably the biggest recruitment blow the NRSC has received so far this year.

GOP gets two credible recruits in Ohio, New Hampshire

Published
by
Taniel
on May 1, 2009
in NH-01, NH-Sen and OH-Gov
. 2 Comments

After scoring a triumphant victory in 2006, Ohio Governor Ted Strickland was not believed to be vulnerable in 2010. Unfortunately for Democrats, the dire economic conditions endanger any incumbent Governor - especially in the Midwest - and Strickland is no exception. While his poll numbers remain strong, a March survey found a majority of respondents disapproving of his handling of the economy.

Strickland now has a challenger: Former Rep. John Kasich, who was long believed to be planning a gubernatorial run, effectively jumped in the race today by filing paperwork to start raising money for a bid. The former Chairman of the House Budget Committee, Kasich served in the House for 18 years and he is well-known to conservatives nationwide as a guest host on Fox News’s O’Reilly Show.

An official announcement might not come for a few more months, but this move should be enough to dissuade other Republicans (including former Senator Mike DeWine) from getting near the race. That means that Ohio Republicans are close to finalizing their 2006 line-up: former Rep. Rob Portman for Senate and former Rep. John Kasish for Governor.

While Portman’s main vulnerability is his service under Bush, Kasich has been out of elected office since 2000. That does not mean that he should expect to escape from the GOP’s tainted reputation. Over the past decade, he remained active in Republican politics and his staunch fiscal conservatism puts him in line with the GOP’s current ideological line; combined with his role as a guest host on Fox News, that should help Democrats paint him as too far to the right.

Kasich’s biggest liability might very well be the fact that he spent six years as a managing director of Lehman Brothers’ investment banking division. That is not the type of role that Americans have come to appreciate, and it connects Kasich directly to the economic crisis in a way that Democrats will be delighted to exploit. How can Kasich expect to go after Strickland’s handling of the economy with Lehman Brothers on his resume?

The short take: Whether this race is competitive is largely beyond Kasich’s control. If the economic crisis damages Strickland’s approval rating and if the political environment significantly shifts against Democrats by the fall of 2010, Kasich would be a credible challenger. Otherwise, Strickland will be favored to win a second-term and the state GOP will focus most of its attention on the open Senate race.

—

After two painful losses against Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01, Republicans believe they can reclaim the district in 2010 by running Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who filed paperwork today to set up a run.

There is no doubt that Guinta would be a strong candidate. For one, he is the Mayor of New Hampshire’s biggest city - and mayors are often well-positioned to run for higher office. Second, he first won in 2005 by defeating a three-term Democratic incumbent, a victory that was viewed as a major upset and that suggests strong political skills and an ability to win over Democratic-leaning voters; after all, the political environment was already getting toxic for the GOP in 2005. Third, NH-01 is a swing district that voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and in 2004.

Earlier this week, a GOP-sponsored poll found Shea-Porter leading Guinta 43% to 34% - a good margin for the Democrat (especially in an internal Republican poll) but also a clear sign of vulnerability since she is under the 50% threshold.

On the other hand, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is regularly underestimated - and the GOP should be careful not to do so for the third cycle in a row. Sure, her past victories occurred in pro-Democratic cycles; but when combined with her unexpected win in the 2006 primary, they also suggest that Shea-Porter has strong campaign skills and that she can mobilize the Democratic grassroots. Now, she can take comfort in the fact that she represents a district that gave Barack Obama a clear majority.

Guinta’s move has consequences beyond the House race: While the Mayor was known to be eying a challenge to Shea-Porter, his name was also mentioned as a possible candidate in the state’s open Senate race. Today’s decision takes him off the list of potential statewide contenders, however, and leaves the GOP with an ever shrinking list.

It is interesting that Guinta is choosing to run against an incumbent representative rather than run for for an open Senate race. Is that more telling of the GOP’s low confidence that it can contest the Senate race, of its overconfidence that it can beat Shea-Porter or of Guinta’s insider knowledge that former Senator John Sununu is planning on running for Senate? Republicans better hope it is the latter. (Sununu is generally viewed as unlikely to run, but he now looks like he is trying to stay in the public eye, which somewhat contradicts the conventional wisdom.)

With 2010 around the corner, Governors are in precarious situation

Published
by
Taniel
on March 23, 2009
in CA-Gov, NJ-Gov, NV-Gov, NY-Gov, OH-Gov and Spitzer
. 0 Comments

A year has passed since Eliot Spitzer’s sudden downfall, and the former Governor’s rehabilitation efforts are getting more successful: The Nation editor Katrina vanden Heuvel just called for Spitzer’s appointment to the Treasury Department! Meanwhile, Spitzer is writing columns for Slate - and one of his recent pieces explains why the country’s Governors are facing a very difficult situation:

The numbers from the states are downright horrifying—and getting worse. The best estimate is that states, nearly all of which are constitutionally obligated to balance their budgets, collectively face deficits of about $350 billion over the next 30 months. That is about 20 percent of total state spending. … The three major revenue streams for states—personal income tax, corporate income tax, and sales tax—all had declines, and the trend line suggests worse declines to come.

With about 50 percent of all spending dedicated to these almost inviolate purposes, and another 20 percent or so allocated to debt service, corrections, transportation, and public assistance, it begins to become evident that finding cuts of 10 percent is easier to editorialize about than to effectuate… As the elected officials charged with paying for essential services using revenue sources that are directly correlated to economic cycles, governors have no easy remedies, and not even many hard ones.

Spitzer’s point might not be terribly original, but it is the opportunity to delve into an issue that has become increasingly apparent over the past few months. Poll after poll show that Governors across the country and from both parties are seeing their approval ratings decline. Budgetary discussions are proving arduous in most states, putting Governors in tough spots as they try to navigate often hostile state legislatures and requirements that budgets be balanced. In many states, Governors are cutting funds for critical programs, freezing wages, laying off workers; that many are reluctant to increase taxes on upper-incomes is further complicating the situation.

Heading into the 2010 cycle, this could spell disaster for incumbent Governors who are up for re-election; even those who are able to keep decent approval rating could see their numbers fall as the crisis deepens over the next year.

The one thing that could mitigate the consequences of this situation is that 17 Governors are barred from seeking re-election in 2010 due to term-limit laws, leaving their seat open and allowing their party to run encumbered by the weight of incumbency. On the other hand, non-incumbent candidates could very well be dragged down at the polls because they belong to the same party as the state’s Governor. In particular, this is a problem for Michigan Lieutenant Governor John Cherry, who could very well find himself blamed for the state’s severe economic crisis.

California’s Republican nominee could face a similar situation. Earlier this year, the Golden State was on the verge of bankruptcy, and the state has taken dramatic measures like forcing 200,000 employees to take one day of unpaid leave every month. The gridlock over the state’s budget revealed Arnold Schwarzenegger’s weakness, as he didn’t even any authority on members of his own party. A recent Field poll showed that 52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Schwarzenegger and that Democrats and Republicans have turned against him. Not only do such numbers hurt whoever the GOP nominates to replace him, but they are also a fatal blow to Schwarzenegger’s hopes of challenging Senator Barbara Boxer.

As for those Governors who are expected to run for re-election in 2009 and 2010, those most affected by the situation are most obviously New York’s David Paterson and New Jersey’s Jon Corzine, both of whom have had to deal with difficult budgetary discussions.

In New York, Paterson’s poll numbers are catastrophic. A recent survey found his approval rating down to 29%, with most dissatisfied respondents citing reasons related to the state’s fiscal woes. He is angering Democrats by refusing to raise taxes on the rich; he has reversed himself on a slate of hikes he had proposed as a replacement; and he is attracting criticism for conducting budget negotiations in complete secrecy. Perhaps most damaging, Paterson has come to be viewed as ineffective and disorganized - a reputation tabloid covers promote and that a new report on his days in the state legislature will only worsen. Meanwhile, potential primary rival Andrew Cuomo has managed to get a political boost from the financial mess by putting himself on the front lines of the fight against the AIG bonuses.

In New Jersey, Corzine’s situation is arguably in an even deeper hole than Paterson as he has to face voters this November, leaving him little time to recover. (Two recent polls found him with an approval rating of 33% and 40% and trailing Republican candidate Chris Christie by 15% and 9%.) Perhaps more damaging than his decision to raise the income tax (however much newspapers complain, how much of a backlash could Corzine suffer for increasing the rate of those who make more than $500,000?) are the wage freeze on state workers, the 9% cut from last year’s budget and the fact that Corzine is reversing himself. That makes him look like he has no firm idea of how to resolve the crisis; while that might very well be true, it’s never good to show it.

As for Nevada’s Jim Gibbons, his approval ratings were already disastrous before the economic crisis worsened, but whatever hopes he had to recover in time for the 2010 midterms are now vanishing in thin air. Nevada’s political discussion over the fiscal crisis has been particularly chaotic, and Gibbons has displayed little political leadership. State workers have seen their pay cut, though Gibbons’s political advisers are benefiting from pay raises; and retired workers will see their premiums increased by 100%. In 2010, Gibbons could be the most endangered incumbent and is expected to face a highly competitive Republican primary.

Other Governors might not have as dreadful approval ratings, but they are certainly starting to feel the heat. In Ohio, a recent poll shows that respondents now disapprove of Ted Strickland’s handling of the economy. The Governor is up for re-election in 2010. How long can he sustain high overall approval ratings in the face of declining confidence in his economic leadership? (Colorado’s Bill Ritter faces the same question.) Like other Governors, Strickland is ordering job cuts; he is also putting himself at risk by refusing to play with progressive taxation - he refused to halt the 21% decline in income tax signed by his Republican predecessors - while supporting increasing regressive taxation like fees for basic services.

Also, it will be interesting to see how Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Texas Governor Rick Perry and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford will be affected by their decision not to take some of the stimulus funds. Palin and Perry are up for re-election next year. The former is not expected to face a competitive race, while the latter will be faced by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary, Hutchison’s vote against the stimulus makes it hard for her to make it an issue. As for Sanford, he is the executive of one of the poorest state’s in the country: Will Democrats be able to regain their footing in the Palmetto State by blasting the GOP for endangering the state’s economic situation further?

Poll watch: Strickland in command, Hutchison with slight lead over Perry

Published
by
Taniel
on March 17, 2009
in OH-Gov, TX-Gov and TX-Sen
. 3 Comments

Earlier this year, a PPP survey found Ohio Governor Ted Strickland in a vulnerable position, leading potential Republican challenger John Kasich by only 6%. Since then, two Quinnipiac surveys have given Democrats some comfort. The first was released in February, and the second has been published today:

  • Strickland leads Kasich 56% to 31%; against former Senator Mike DeWine, Strickland is ahead 54% to 32%. (The Governor had wider leads in February: He was ahead 56% to 26% and 54% to 32%, respectively.)
  • Strickland’s approval rating remains strong: 56% approve of his performance, while 30% disapprove. Yet, that is lower than Strickland’s February approval rating. The reason is clear: respondents disapprove of Strickland’s handling of the economy, 46% to 43%.

That last number is undoubtedly the most intriguing: Like other executives across the country, the economic crisis puts Strickland in a vulnerable position. We have already been witnessing the collapsing fortunes of Governors David Paterson, Jon Corzine and Arnold Schwarzenegger as their state face budgetary woes. And while Ohio voters still retain a favorable assessment of their Governor, he is clearly starting to feel the heat of the financial crisis since more voters now disapprove of his economic performance.

How long can Strickland (and other Governors in a similar position) sustain high overall approval ratings in the face of declining confidence in their economic leadership and in the face of worsening economic conditions?

Note that neither Kasich nor DeWine have committed to the race. While many expect Kasish to jump in the race, DeWine is also considering the open Senate race and the contest for Attorney General; he is said to be leaning towards the latter. If both were to challenge Strickland, the GOP would undoubtedly find itself in an unpredictable primary. Quinnipiac tested the Republican primary, finding DeWine narrowly ahead of Kasish, 32% to 27%.

—

Meanwhile, a University of Texas survey tested Texas’s potential Republican primary between Senator Kay Baily Hutchison and Governor Rick Perry. A poll released last month found the Senator leading 56% to 31%, but this new survey finds a closer race: Hutchison is ahead 37% to 29% 36% to 30%. (As a commenter points out, most sources point to the margin being 36-30 rather than 37-29, though the Statesman provides the latter margin. The overall point remains the same.)

That suggests that there is a larger number of undecided than we would expect given that this would be a blockbuster battle between the state’s two top GOP politicians. Yet, it might not be that surprising: While Hutchison and Perry have different profiles, there are both popular, and the state’s Republican voters have been accustomed to voting for them over the past decade or two. How are they supposed to suddenly arbitrate a showdown between them?

Interestingly, new reports suggest that Hutchison is in the process of changing her plans. The Senator was widely expected to resign from her Senate seat in the upcoming months to fully devote herself to the gubernatorial race. Texas has no procedure for a permanent gubernatorial appointment, so a Hutchison resignation would trigger a special election - and Democrats were obviously looking forward to getting a shot at picking-up the seat.

Roll Call is now reporting that, while Hutchison is still as likely to run for Governor, she is now leaning against resigning before she wins the Governor’s mansion. That would mean no special eletion before the spring of 2011. The story adds that Hutchison might still end up stepping down, but even then she will do so later than what was rumored -  probably not before the end of this year. That would mean that we should not expect a special election before May 2010. (Interestingly, Democrats already have two candidates who have committed themselves to the Senate run should Hutchison step down: Houston Mayor Bill White and former Controller John Sharp. That’s more than in many Senate races that are actually sure to take place in 2010.)

Poll watch: Kentucky remains red state, Strickland enjoys wide leads

Published
by
Taniel
on February 5, 2009
in KY-Sen and OH-Gov
. 0 Comments

Given how much pressure GOP leaders are putting on Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning to push him into retirement, we have come to think that Bunning would be a nightmarish candidate who could never muster a competitive race - let alone a victory. In fact, our expectations for Bunning are so low that a new Research 2000 poll showing him under 50% and leading his Democratic rivals by 4% looks like good news for the Senator!

The poll tests eight match-ups, four testing Senator Jim Bunning and four testing Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the probable Republican nominee if Bunning retires. All eight match-ups are within the 4% margin of error:

  • Bunning leads 45% to 42% against Rep. Ben Chandler, 46% to 42% against Attorney General Jack Conway and Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, and 45% to 41% against Treasurer Crit Luallen.
  • Grayson is tied at 42% with Chandler and Luallen; he leads 42% to 41% against Conway and 43% to 42% against Mongiardo.

This poll is a testament to Kentucky’s clear conservative leanings. Bunning is wildly disliked (41% have a favorable opinion of their Senator, while 47% have an unfavorable opinion), and the four Democrats are not only well-known, but they also enjoy far high favorability ratings: Chandler stands at 52-28, Luallen at 53-25 and Conway at 48-28. Mongiardo’s ratings is less stellar, but it remains positive (50-40).That the very same poll shows Bunning holding on to narrow leads certainly suggests that Kentucky voters will need to be convinced to back a Democrat - even if their other choice is Jim Bunning.

That said, the poll remains positive news for Democrats. Bunning is unpopular, he is clearly under the vulnerability threshold of 50% and this poll confirms that he is the most endangered incumbent of the 2010 cycle. Furthermore, polls showing that Bunning is electable will make it much harder for Republican leaders to convince him to leave. How can they make him understand that his presence on the ballot endangers their hold on the seat when Bunning can point to polls in which he is in a stronger position?

—

Last time we checked in Ohio’s gubernatorial race, Ted Strickland held a 45% to 39% lead against former Rep. John Kasich in a PPP match-up with a lot of undecided voters. Quinnipiac’s new survey finds better news for Ohio’s Democratic Governor:

  • Strickland’s approval rating is very strong (63% approve, versus 25%), as is his favorability rating (60% to 19%).
  • Logically, Strickland dominates his two tested match-ups: He demolishes Kasich 56% to 26% and former Senator Mike DeWine 54% to 32%. The margins are even greater among independents; for instance, Strickland crushes DeWine 55% to 26% among that group.

These margins are more in line with what we have come to expect from Strickland. He did, after all, triumph in the 2006 open seat, beating his Republican opponent 60% to 39%. That type of margin indicates a level of popularity that would not suggest a rocky road to re-election.

Interestingly, we got two tidbits of news about Ohio politicians today. First, Strickland’s name is being mentioned as a possible HHS Secretary by the AP. That would obviously shuffle things up in Ohio politics - not only for the gubernatorial race but also in the senatorial election: Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, a possible Senate candidate, would then become Governor and presumably run for a full term in 2010.

Second, former Senator Mike DeWine, who lost by double-digits to now-Senator Sherrod Brown in 2006, announced today that he will run for statewide office in 2010 - though he has not decided which race he will choose (Senate, Governor, Attorney General). That in itself is interesting information, as most people assumed that he would rule out a senatorial run after Rob Portman announced his candidacy. Whatever DeWine decides, this announcement makes it less likely the GOP will succeed to clear the primary fields for Portman and Kasisch.

Poll watch: Ted Strickland and Richard Burr under 50%

Published
by
Taniel
on January 22, 2009
in FL-Sen, NC-Sen and OH-Gov
. 8 Comments

After two disastrous cycles that has left them locked out of most statewide offices, Ohio Republicans believe that they could rebound in 2010 by running former Rep. Rob Portman in the Senate race and former Rep. John Kasish in the gubernatorial race.

The first poll of the Senate race was released earlier this week, and it found Portman in a promising position. Now, Public Policy Polling has released the cycle’s first poll of Ohio’s gubernatorial race, pitting incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland against Kasish.

The results are somewhat worrisome for Democrats:

  • Strickland leads 45% to 39% in a head-to-head match-up.
  • Strickland has a good approval rating (48% versus 35%), but so does Kasish (34% to 24%).

It is always worrisome for an incumbent to come in under 50% or to post a single-digit lead; here, Strickland does both. This rule is especially important when an incumbent faces a challenger that is far less known, since what is essentially being tested is the incumbent’s vulnerability. As the poll indicates, Kasish is not known to more than 40% of voters.

These results are rather surprising, as Strickland did not seem to be an easy target for Republicans. He did, after all, triumph in the 2006 open seat, beating his Republican opponent 60% to 39%. That type of margin indicates a level of popularity that would not suggest a rocky road to re-election.

As long as Kasish can mount a competitive run (and this poll indicates that he should be able to), this will likely be one of those races in which the economic conjecture and Obama’s popularity will be very important. If the national environment is tough for Democrats in 2010, this poll suggests that Strickland should expect a tough race.

—

Public Policy Polling also released a poll from the North Carolina Senate race, testing Senator Richard Burr against Rep. Heath Shuler:

  • Burr leads Shuler 39% to 28% - with a huge number of undecideds.
  • Burr’s approval rating is very mediocre, 33% to 30%. Shuler’s stands at 21% versus 21% - with 58% of voters having no opinion of the representative.

What is most remarkable about this poll is how large a proportion of respondents have no opinion of Burr. That is not good news for the Senator since it means that he will have little incumbency advantage to protect himself behind; and do not forget that Democrats were successful against Dole by portraying her as a do-little Senator. Could Burr fall victim to the same problem?

The poll is not very useful when it comes to testing Shuler’s potential; his name recognition appears too low for such an early poll to be valuable in that aspect (Hagan trailed Dole by 16% in PPP’s first poll of that match-up, in the fall of 2007). If anything, the survey merely shows that there is no reason for Democrats to fear that a Shuler candidacy would be a disaster.

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Finally, Quinnipiac released a poll testing the Republican and Democratic primaries of Florida’s Senate race. The poll’s only finding is that there is no favorite whatsoever and both nominations (and thus the general election) are wide open.

On the Democratic side, the poll was conducted before Alex Sink announced she would not run; even so, 54% of respondents say they do not know who they would vote for. No candidate gets more than 15% (Sink), and Reps. Meek, Boyd and Klein are within 4% of each other.

On the Republican side, the numbers reflect little more than name recognition: 39% have no opinion, 22% choose Attorney General McCollum, 21% go for Rep. Mack, 10% for Rep. Buchanan and only 6% choose former House Speaker Marco Rubio. Rubio is little known outside of his home base of Southern Florida, but he is expected to get extensive establishment support if he jumps in the race (he is a close ally of former Governor Jeb Bush) and the primary numbers will be very different once all candidates introduce themselves to voters.

Poll watch: Sens. Bond, Burr and Voinovich are vulnerable

Published
by
Taniel
on December 10, 2008
in MO-Sen, NC-Sen, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 4 Comments

Early Senate polling for the upcoming cycle is starting to come in and they have brought with them few surprises, merely confirming our suspicions of which incumbents are endangered (Reid, Specter, Martinez before his retirement) and which are in a slightly more secure position (Salazar).

Three new polls released over the past two days serve as further evidence that Republicans have more obvious vulnerabilities in 2010, with Sens. Bond, Burr and Voinovich all looking vulnerable to Democratic challenges.

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In Missouri, a Research 2000 poll finds Senator Kit Bond with a mediocre approval rating (49-43) and a narrow 47% to 43% lead just within the margin of error over Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.

The bad news for the GOP is that there is little doubt that Bond is vulnerable. Not only does he fail to top 50% in either his approval rating or his match-up against Carnahan, but also because he has always been fairly weak electorally - especially for a politician who won his first statewide race in 1980. Bond’s s 56% in 2004 was the highest level of support he has gotten in his five statewide races (one gubernatorial and four senatorial).

The good news for the GOP is that Robin Carnahan is undoubtedly the strongest candidate Democrats could field against Bond - if for no other reason than her golden last name. The poll did not test other match-ups, but chances are that Bond has far larger leads against other opponents if he already manages to stay on top of Carnahan.

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In North Carolina, Public Policy Polling found Democratic Attorney Genearl Roy Cooper with a 39% to 34% lead against Senator Richard Burr - a dismal showing for an incumbent even if PPP clearly did not push undecideds very hard.

Democrats have a deep bench in North Carolina, and many politicians are likely to consider a challenge to Burr, who always looked a more appealing target than Elizabeth Dole (some Democrats might have passed a 2008 race thinking they would have a better shot in 2010 - and thus allowing relatively unknown Kay Hagan to jump over them).

In other words, Cooper’s strong early position does not guarantee him the Democratic nomination - nor would it ruin the party’s prospects if Cooper declined to run. (I’m sure this blog’s always surprisingly numerous North Carolina readers have much to say about Cooper’s profile and electability?)

It’s worth noting that PPP conducted similar early tests of potential challenges to Elizabeth Dole last year and the Dole-Hagan match-up showed the still-undeclared Democrat trailing by 16%.

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Finally, Quinnipiac conducted a poll in Ohio that tested Senator George Voinovich against a generic Democrat - a less useful measure down-the-line but one that can help test an incumbent’s vulnerability early on. It shows 36% of respondents saying they would vote to re-elect Voinovich while 35% would opt for a Democrat.

On the other hand, Voinovich has a good approval rating (51-31) and his re-elect numbers are mediocre but passable: 44% say he deserves re-election and 34% say he should be replaced - an incumbent coming under 50% is considered at the very least vulnerable.

Voinovich is rumored to be considering retirement, and such a decision would obviously change the thinking about this seat. A lot also depends on Democratic recruitment, as Voinovich has been Senator for long enough to perhaps scare some prominent Democrats.

In the gubernatorial race, meanwhile, Democrat Ted Strickland looks to be in a slightly better position as 45% say he deserves re-election (versus 34%), a number comparable to Voinovich, but as he has a 20% lead over a generic Republican (46% to 26%). Here again, whether Strickland faces a difficult re-election race will largely depend on the quality of GOP recruitment.