Category Archive for ‘NC-Pres’ at Campaign Diaries

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Absentees, provisionals, recounts and runoffs: Update on the 10 remaining congressional seats

Published

on November 7, 2008

in AK-AL, AK-Sen, CA-04, CA-44, GA-Sen, MD-01, MN-Sen, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NE-Pres, OH-15, VA-05 and WA-08

. 14 Comments

Three days have passed since Election Day, but there are still a number of undecided races, pending recounts and uncounted provisional, early and absentee ballots. Here’s a rundown of these contests and where they stand, starting with the presidential election:

North Carolina: The Tar Heel state was called for Obama yesterday, completing a stunning Democratic sweep in a state that voted for George W. Bush by 13% in 2004. Democrats also picked up a Senate seat (Hagan defeated Dole by 9%), kept the governorship and the lieutenant governor. (Correction: Democrats did not expand their majority in the state legislature, as a reader points out.)

Missouri: McCain is holding on to a 6,000 vote lead, a large enough margin that several media outlets (including MSNBC) have called the state for the Arizona Senator. That would mean 2008 one of the only elections in the past century that the Show Me State has not sided with the winner.

Nebraska’s 2nd district: Obama did not win Montana or North Dakota, but it looks like he might still grab one of Nebraska’s electoral votes. McCain still leads by a few hundred votes in this Omaha-based district, but there are still more than 15,000 early and provisional votes to be counted. The Omaha World Herald thinks those should be enough for Obama to grab the lead.

Omaha’s totals are further further evidence that voters held back from voting Democratic all the way down the ballot even as they cast a ballot for Obama, as Omaha’s vulnerable Republican Rep. Terry survived with 52% of the vote. In other words, the Democrat’s presidential candidate outperformed a local Democrat in a conservative area!

At the Senate level, three races remain undecided now that Oregon has gone Democratic:

Georgia: Saxby Chambliss has barely missed the 50% threshold, and though there are still a few thousand ballots left to be counted it is difficult to see them going in the Republican’s direction by a big enough margin for him to cross the threshold. This would mean that the race is going to a runoff, about which we will surely have more to say in the weeks ahead. Both candidates have already started campaigning, as Jim Martin is already up with an ad appealing to Obama’s popularity (yes, this is Georgia) and as Chambliss is scheduling McCain (and perhaps Palin!) to stump with him. Both campaigns have the same preoccupation: Keep their supporters energized.

Minnesota: There are no provisional, early or absentee ballots left to be counted in this race, but the Coleman-Franken gap kept shrinking yesterday. Why? As counties go back to verify their totals and tabulations, they discover mistakes and typos and correct them. As a result, Franken’s deficit is now down to 239 vote. Whatever the margin by certification, there is no doubt that the race will head to a recount… which would not be held until December. The recount would be conducted by hand, and election officials would try to determine the intent of the voter on ballots that the machine has not recognized. That could mean as much as 6,000 voters being added to the total, making the outcome wildly unpredictable.

Alaska: This race could keep us occupied for weeks - months even. Ted Stevens’s advantage stands at 3,257 votes with tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted (estimates put the number of remaining votes between 50,000 and 74,000). However, these ballots will not be counted for about 10 days (taking us back to the absurd GOP House primary in late August which took weeks to be resolved). If Stevens wins, there are signs that he will be kicked out of the Senate - perhaps as early as in the late November/December session. That could mean that Alaska is forced to hold a special election sometime in the spring. Given that Begich couldn’t put Stevens away, could he win against another Republican - Palin or Parnell, for instance?

If Democrats somehow win all three of these races, they could still get to 60 Senate seats - but Republicans have a slight edge in each for now. As for the House:

AK-AL: The race is unlikely to be called until the tens of thousands of remaining ballots are counted, but Republican Rep. Don Young probably has too large a lead to lose his seat. His victory would be the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle - and a remarkable survival for an incumbent that was first expected to lose the primary, then the general election.

CA-04: In a conservative race Democrats were feeling increasingly optimistic about, Charlie Brown could be headed to his second heart-breakingly close race in a row. Republican McClintock has been increasing his lead since Wednesday morning and is now ahead by 709 votes. But there is still an estimated 48,000 uncounted votes that should be processed in the days and weeks ahead, so this is still anyone’s game.

CA-44: This is a race that was on no one’s radar screen, and I do mean no one. Yet, Republican Rep. Calvert is leading 51% to 49% (or 4,000 votes) with tens of thousands of absentee ballots left to be counted. Calvert has a clear edge heading into extra innings, but we should still keep an eye on the race.

MD-01: Things are looking good for Democratic candidate Frank Kratovil in this conservative open seat. He has more than doubled his lead since Wednesday morning and is now on top by 2,003 votes. There are a significant number of ballots left to be counted, but Andy Harris would have to win 59% of them to save the seat for Republicans.

OH-15: A massive counting glitch by the AP led them to overstate Republican candidate Stivers’s lead by 12,000 vote for much of Tuesday night and Wednesday, but that has now been fixed: Only 136 votes separate Stivers from Mary Jo Kilroy (who already lost a close race in 2006), with thousands of provisional ballots left to be counted, especially in Kilroy-friendly Franklin County. Two years ago, Kilroy cut her opponent’s advantage by half after provisional ballots were counted, gaining about 1,500 votes. That is giving Democrats hope she can replicate those gains this year and give her party a third Ohio pick-up.

VA-05: Tom Perriello’s lead jumped from 31 votes to more than 800 yesterday, and has now settled at 751. Perriello has a clear advantage and has declared victory, but some counties are still reviewing their results and an undetermined number of absentee ballots remain to be counted. So advantage to Democrats here, but this could be headed to a recount.

WA-08: Ballots have to postmarked by Tuesday, November 4th to be valid, and only about 70% of all estimated votes have been counted. We should not get a final result in this race until next week. But Rep. Dave Reichert looks to be relatively well positioned as he is slightly increasing his lead the more votes are being reported, especially in King County, the Democratic part of the district. Reichert now leads by a relatively comfortable 5,000 votes.

As of now, Democrats stand at 19 net pick-ups (255 seats), and are not at risk of losing any more seat of their own. That means that the possible range is from +19 to +26 - though the final number is likely to be far closer to lower number as a Democratic pick-up is looking improbable in AK-AL and CA-44. On the other hand, Democrats are looking very well positioned in MD-01 and VA-05.

With Jeff Merkley, Senate Dems get to 57 seats and prepare for IL, DE and MA free-for-alls

Published

Taniel

on November 6, 2008

in CA-44, DE-Sen, IL-Sen, MA-Sen, NC-Pres, OH-15, OR-Sen and VA-05

. 11 Comments

As expected, Jeff Merkley pulled ahead of Republican Senator Gordon Smith as Multnomah County reported its results, leading many media outlets - including The Oregonian and MSNBC - to call the election for Merkley. This morning, Smith conceded defeat, settling what was long considered as the cycle’s ultimate toss-up (though Merkley gained a clear advantage over the past month) and what was certainly one of the year’s most bitterly fought Senate races.

The incumbent Senator was unable to overcome the unpopularity of his party label in this blue-leaning state, and he was burdened by a schizophrenic campaign in which he supported McCain but touted his relationship with Obama, pledged to exercise soft-spoken non-partisanship before lambasting his opponent in one of the most brutal attack ads of the cycle.

This gives Senate Democrats their 6th pick-up, and the one that is arguably the most satisfying to the party’s left given Merkley’s progressive profile. They are now guaranteed 57 seats with 3 left undecided: Alaska, Georgia and Minnesota.

(There is nothing new to report in these other races. In Georgia, we are waiting for Fulton County to finish counting its absentee ballots. In Minnesota, the Coleman-Franken dogfight is sure to head to a December recount, and election officials say that there could certainly be enough uncounted ballots to reverse the result. In Alaska, Mark Begich has closed the gap by a few hundred votes and now trails by 3,000 with an estimated 50,000 absentee ballots left to be counted - which should not happen for a few weeks.)

There is no reason to fear that December 2nd - the date of Georgia’s runoff - will mark the end of Senate politicking. Not only is there a chance that Minnesota’s result remain in contention deep into December, but a number of other seats are in question, starting with Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s Illinois and Delaware seats!

Both Senators will resign sometime in the coming weeks, and their respective governors will have to appoint their successor. There is no clear favorite for either seat, though there is one important factor to keep in mind: Barack Obama is the Senate’s only African-American member. Unless Illinois Gov. Blagojevich appoints a black politician (and there are several high-profile names circulating, including Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. and Emil Jones, the president of the state Senate and one of Obama’s mentors), there will be no African-American in the 111th Senate!

Other names that are circulating in Illinois include Rep. Jan Schakowsky, favored by labor, and Tammy Duckworth, who lost a high profile House race in 2006 before being tapped in the Blagojevich Administration. Blagojevich - who is widely unpopular - could also appoint himself. In Delaware, Biden would like his son to follow his footsteps, but Beau is deployed to Iraq until October 2009. The governor could appoint a caretaker until then or choose someone with more permanent ambitions.

And we are likely to get even more new Senators as Barack Obama starts naming Cabinet positions - potentially drawing from the ranks of congressional Democrats. One politician that is looking to join an Obama Administration is Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, who endorsed Obama at a key moment of the Democratic primaries and is now mentioned as a possible Secretary of State.

A Kerry appointment would mean a 2009 special election (the Democatic state legislature stripped the Governor of its appointment rights in 2004 when they feared Mitt Romney would pick a Republican successor to a President Kerry) - and one that is likely to be extremely competitive, at least on the Democratic side. There has not been an open Senate seat in the state since 1984, and there are more than a dozen Democrats in the state whose ambitions have been frustrated for much of the past two decades.

(If a seat opened up in a normal election year, some of the ten representatives might not dare to run as they would have to give up their House seat, but there is no such problem in a special election - so this would very much be a brutal free-for-all.)

Final poll watch: No late movement

Published

Taniel

on November 4, 2008

in FL-Pres, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IN-Pres, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NV-Pres, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-Gov, WA-Pres and WV-Pres

. 1 Comment

Still to come today: An election night cheat sheet, anything else that events warrant and a liveblog, of course. (And the prediction thread is still alive!)

A final round of polling released over the past 12 hours includes interviews conducted on Monday, allowing us to check whether McCain benefited from any last minute movement.

The verdict: McCain does not gain as a result of Monday polling. In fact, Obama gains in Zogby and IBD/TIPP’s national poll and holds firm in a Marist poll entirely conducted on Monday. At the state level, SUSA’s Pennsylvania poll shows Obama improving his position over the past few days and seizing a 9% lead, while Zogby’s 8 polls from battleground states have trendlines going in both directions - but no significant movement.

This means that no pollster has detected any sort of McCain improvement over the past few days. Firms that have been trying to allocate undecided have suggested that they are not likely to break heavily towards the Republican nominee. (Not to mention that in many state the impact of a late-breaking surge would be limited: at least 64% of all active registered voters cast their ballot before Election Day in Colorado.)

If McCain somehow pulls a comeback, almost no pollster will be able to bask in the glory, as even outlets that have shown a tighter race fell in line (IBD/TIPP, Zogby). The only exception is the “Battleground poll” (whose result I never included in my polling watch because they arbitrarily imposed wide swings in their weighing), whose GOP half (Tarrance) is projecting the tightest margin among all pollsters (50% to 48%). Mason-Dixon could also be somewhat vindicated: though their last batch of state polls pointed to an Obama victory, McCain was not in as dismal a situation as we’ve seen elsewhere.

In other words: for McCain to prevail, all polls (even Mason-Dixon) would have to be dead wrong. That’s happened before, but the New Hampshire primary was a highly volatile 4-day campaign - and that means that there were a lot of reasons to explain the polling fiasco. We simply do not know what would possibly explain a similar debacle today (though I tried to outline some possible scenarios here). With all of this in mind, here are the last polls of the 2008 cycle:

Zogby’s final tracking poll result found Obama jumping to a 54% to 43% lead.

Marist’s final national poll, entirely conducted on Monday, has Obama leading 52% to 43%.

Obama leads 48% to 42% in the final IBD/TIPP tracking poll; IBD/TIPP allocates undecideds to reach a 52% to 44% Obama margin.

Obama leads 53% to 44% in ABC/Washington Post’s final tracking poll.

The Battleground tracking comes out with two different projections: Its Republican half (Tarrance) has Obama leading 50% to 48% while its Democratic half (Lake) has him ahead 52% to 47%. Note that this is not a trend towards McCain at all; Battleground has always shown a tighter race than other pollsters.

Obama leads 51% to 46% in Research 2000’s final tracking poll. That means that R2000 has the tightest final margin of all trackings - a fascinating result given that it is funded by Kos, RCP inexplicably refuses to include it in its averages and Obama had some of his largest leads through September and October in R2000.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 52% to 43% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday through Monday; that’s an increase from a 7% lead Obama enjoyed in a poll released on Sunday. Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 14% yesterday).

Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in an ARG poll conducted Friday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 6% yesterday).

Nevada: Obama leads 53% to 42% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 8% yesterday).

Ohio: Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 6% yesterday).

Florida: Obama leads 58% to 40% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday through Monday; he leads by 18% among those who have already voted (58% of the sample). McCain leads 49% to 48% in a Datamar poll conducted Saturday and Sunday; the candidates were tied at 47% a few days ago and Obama led by 5% earlier. Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 2% yesterday).

North Carolina: Obama leads 49% to 48% in an ARG poll conducted Friday through Monday; African-Americans make up a relatively large 24% of respondents. McCain leads 50% to 49% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; McCain led by 1% yesterday).

Missouri is tied at 49% a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; Obama led by 1% yesterday).

Georgia: McCain leads 49% to 48% in Insider Advantage’s final poll.

Indiana: McCain leads 50% to 45% in a Zogby tracking poll conducted Friday through Monday (Thursday’s sample has been left out, Monday’s has been included; McCain led by 5% yesterday).

Washington: Obama leads 56% to 40% in a SUSA poll.

West Virginia: McCain leads 53% to 42% in an ARG poll taken Friday through Monday.

Meanwhile, in our final down the ballot numbers:

Christine Gregoire pulls ahead 52% to 46% in SUSA poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race. This breaks a series of 8 SUSA polls that had the race within the MoE.

Saxby Chambliss leads 48% to 43% in Insider Advantage’s final poll of Georgia’s Senate race.

Presidential polling: Obama closes campaign in strong position

Published

Taniel

on November 3, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, IN-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NH-Pres, NJ-Pres, NV-Pres, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, VA-Pres and WA-Pres

. 6 Comments

As is fitting on the last day before an election, we were treated to a deluge of polling today, as at least 52 presidential surveys were released over the past 24 hours! (I for once devoted a separate post to congressional polls.)

Given the sheer volume of data, we could have expected to see wide discrepancies between different pollsters. Instead, there appears to be a large consensus between different outlets, both at the state level and in national polls (where most surveys gravitate towards the same mean). If the polls turn out to be wrong, absolutely all pollsters will be implicated, suggesting that there is something structural that was missed. (Mark Blumenthal takes a look at what that might be.)

Not only are polls convergent, they have also been consistent over time: Individuals polls have fluctuated a bit over the past few months, but both candidates have oscillated within the same margins since the beginning of October, with very little indication that either candidate has gained or lost ground in that time.

Today’s national polls look familiar: Obama is at or above 50% in 11 of 12 national polls (at 48% in the 12th) and he tops 51% in 10 out of 12. McCain, meanwhile, remains between 42% and 46% in all these polls. There is also no uniform trendline in these final days but the tendency of most polls to move towards high single-digit territory.

At the state level, there was a lot of polling out today, as many outlets (Rasmussen, PPP, Strategic Vision, Zogby, Quinnipiac) released their final waves of surveys. Overall, the results are strong for the Illinois Senator, who first and foremost retains his advantage in Pennsylvania: Five polls find him leading anywhere between 6% and 14%, a range we have been seeing in most surveys from the Keystone State this past week. More importantly, the trendline does not appear to be clearly heading in McCain’s direction. It will take an extraordinary amount of GOTV, big gains among undecided voters and a significant overstatement of Obama’s support for McCain to pull off these 21 electoral votes.

As for the red states, the same classification we have been using lately applies: Colorado, Virginia and Nevada are the most likely to fall in Obama’s hands, though his lead in the day’s one Colorado poll is smaller than he would like (the fact that Colorado has been so under-polled this cycle is a disgrace, as the state’s role in this year’s electoral college is in many ways more important than, say, Missouri or Ohio). Any one of these states combined to Pennsylvania would get Obama at 269; all three would offset a Pennsylvania loss.

Ohio and Florida lean Obama by the tightest of margins (Obama leads in four out of five FL poll, but all within the MoE and he leads in five out of seven OH polls, some by large margins, with one survey tied and one having McCain ahead by 2%). And that leaves as the ultimate toss-ups of the election states that should never have been competitive in the first place: North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Montana. The Missouri polling is especially fascinating, as three out of the day’s four polls have the contest tied.

One possible area of concern for Obama: There is evidence in some of these polls that undecided voters are closing in for McCain. That is especially the case in PPP’s polls: compared to the group’s previous polls from the same state’s, Obama’s support has remained stable while McCain has gained and the number of undecided has decreased. This could suggest some trouble for Obama (and it is one of the factors that I outlined yesterday in my post rehashing the scenarios in which McCain could surprise us). Other polls, however, other pollsters do not find similar results: Ipsos/McClatchy and Gallup both model their undecided to break evenly, and CBS News’s profile of undecided voters suggests that they are more Democratic than Republican.

One area of concern for McCain: SUSA’s polls of Georgia and North Carolina show that they predict that black turnout will be sensibly the same as it was in 2004. Given that African-Americans make up a disproportionate share of early voters, it would mean that they are significantly under-represented among tomorrow’s voters. This raises the possibility that Obama’s support remains under-represented in some of these polls.

—

Let’s go on to the full roundup of the day’s polls, which I have broken down for convenience given the volume of data released today. First, twelve national polls have Obama leading anywhere from 5% to 11% (5%, 5%, 6%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 9%, 9%, 11%):

Obama leads 51% to 43% in the final NBC/WSJ national poll conducted Saturday and Sunday.
Obama leads 53% to 44% in the final Marist national poll conducted entirely yesterday; Palin’s favorability rating has really dropped over the past few months.
Obama leads 50% to 42% in Ipsos/McClatchy’s final national poll. With all undecideds allocated, Obama leads 53% to 46%.
Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Fox News national poll, up form from a 3% lead late last week.
Trackings: Obama gains 3% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 43%), 2% in Zogby (51% to 44%), 2% in Gallup (53% to 42%, the same margin in both LV models) and 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 46%). The race was stable in Hotline (50% to 45%). He lost 1% in Research 2000 (51% to 45%), 2% in Washington Post/ABC (53% to 44%) and 4% in CBS News (51% to 42%).

Second, 5 polls from Pennsylvania:

Obama leads 53% to 45% in a PPP poll taken Friday through Sunday. Both candidates enjoy roughly the same party loyalty, with Obama winning big among independents.
Obama leads 52% to 46% in Morning Call’s tracking poll; Obama has been holding steady while McCain has been steadily gaining as independents break his way.
Obama leads 54% to 40% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday.
Obama leads 51% to 44% in Strategic Vision (up from a 5% lead).
Obama leads 50% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll taken through last week; he led by 12% the week before.
SUSA has a poll of the presidential race in PA-10 only, finding Obama leading 53% to 43% in a district Kerry won by 6%.

Third, (only) five polls from the three red states that are most likely to go for Obama:

Colorado: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; he led by 4% last week.

Virginia: Obama leads 52% to 46% in a PPP poll taken Friday through Sunday; the previous PPP poll conducted three weeks ago had Obama leading 51% to 43%. Obama leads 51% to 45% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday; he led by 7% last week. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; he led by the same margin last week.

Nevada: Obama leads 51% to 43% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday; he led by 4% last week. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a PPP poll, but the poll suggests that the die has been cast: 71% of respondents say they have already voted (a proportion that sounds right given the hard data we have) and they favor Obama by 14%.

Fourth, we were treated with a deluge of Ohio polls:

Obama leads 48% to 46% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday and Saturday; that’s down from a 4% lead last week, but Obama leads by a stunning 24% among the third of voters who have already cast their ballot.
Obama leads 52% to 46% in the final University of Cincinnati poll conducted Wednesday through Sunday.
Obama leads 50% to 48% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday; he led 51% to 44% in a poll taken two weeks ago. McCain is gaining among whites (he has increased his lead from 49-46 to 55-43) and independents (he trailed 48-36, now 49-46, suggesting that undecideds are breaking for the Republican).
Obama leads 50% to 44% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday; Obama led by 5% last week.
The candidates are tied at 49% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; Obama led by 4% last week.
Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Quinnipiac poll taken through last week; he led by 5% the week before.
McCain leads 48% to 46% in a Strategic Vision poll; McCain led by 3% two weeks ago.

Fifth, here are the day’s five new poll from Florida:

Obama leads 50% to 48% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday (the good news for Obama: half of likely voters have already cast their ballot and they favor Obama by 13%).
Obama leads 48% to 46% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday; he led by 4% last week.
McCain leads 50% to 49% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; Obama led by 4% last week.
Obama leads 47% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll taken through last week; the margin was the week before.
Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Strategic Vision poll; McCain led by 2% two weeks ago.

Sixth, we got a number of polls from red states that are rated toss-ups in my latest ratings:

Missouri: The candidates are tied at 49% in PPP’s poll conducted Friday through Sunday. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday. The candidates are tied at 48% in a SUSA poll; this is the same margin as last week. The candidates are tied at 49% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; Obama led by 1% last week.

North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 49% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday; there is no change since last week. Obama leads by 10% among those who have already voted and McCain leads by 14% among those planning to vote on Tuesday. McCain leads 49% to 48% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday. McCain leads leads 50% to 49% in a Rasmussen poll taken Sunday; he led by 1% last week as well. McCain leads 49% to 48% in a SUSA poll that puts the black vote at 20%; the candidates were tied two weeks ago.

Indiana: Obama leads 49% to 48% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday. McCain leads 49% to 44% in a Zogby poll conducted Thursday though Saturday.

Georgia: McCain leads 50% to 48% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday; Obama leads by 5% among early voters (57% of the sample). McCain leads 52% to 45% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday and Saturday; SUSA predicts that the black vote will compose 26% of the electorate, which seems a very low estimate (2004 was 25%, early voting is 35%). McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Strategic Vision poll.

Montana: Obama leads 48% to 47% in a PPP poll conducted Friday through Sunday; Ron Paul gets 4%.

Finally, a look at blue states that are rated likely or safe Obama and where the final polling suggests Obama has little to worry about:

Minnesota: Obama leads 49% to 46% in a SUSA poll conducted Friday and Saturday; Obama led by 6% two weeks ago.

Wisconsin: Obama leads 53% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll.

New Hampshire: Obama leads 53% to 42% in UNH’s final poll conducted Friday through Sunday.

Safe(r) states: Obama leads 55% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll of Washington. Obama leads 57% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of New Jersey.

Poll watch: McCain tightens national race and PA but remains far behind; McConnell pulls ahead

Published

Taniel

on November 2, 2008

in CO-Pres, CO-Sen, IA-Pres, IL-Pres, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, MI-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NM-01, NM-02, NM-Pres, NM-Sen, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, UT-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-Gov and WA-Pres

. 8 Comments

Update: Two new national polls should help Obama supporters sleep tonight. First, it appears that CBS News is now also conducting a tracking poll, as they just released their second national poll in two days. The margin remains the same, 54% to 41% for Obama among likely voters. Second, the final Gallup/USA Today poll just came out and finds Obama leading 53% to 42% among likely voters; this poll was conducted Friday through today, and carries a huge sample of more than 2400 respondents. Obama led by 7% three weeks ago in this poll, meaning that there is no consistent evidence that the race has tightened. [To make things clear: It appears that this latter poll is Gallup's tracking poll released half-a-day early.]

Original post: McCain has made gains nationally, and there are some signs undecided voters appear to be breaking towards the Republican more than towards his opponent (all polls do not agree on this). He has made gains in Pennsylvania. But 48 hours from polls closing, he is still in a deep hole at the national level and in a number of states that have become must-wins, starting with the Keystone State.

Three new Pennsylvania polls conducted over the past three days have Obama leading by 6% and 7%, certainly a smaller margin than Obama enjoyed just 10 days ago (he has lost 6% in Morning Call in four days and 5% in SUSA in a week) but still a substantial advantage. Unless something dramatic happens tomorrow, it is hard to imagine how McCain can reverse a deficit that all polls agree is at least in the mid-single digits. (Furthermore, Rasmussen’s poll conducted yesterday has him gaining 2% for a 6% lead; since we have to assume that polls are dramatically understating McCain’s support in Pennsylvania if we want to seriously look at the possibility of his comeback bid seriously, which makes trendlines very important.)

Pennsylvania is not a state in which Democrats are likely to be caught by surprise; it is a state in which they have a strong operation and a machine that allowed Al Gore and John Kerry to eke out narrow victories in the past two presidential elections. It is also a state in which they have made gains over the past four years (just read today’s “one year ago today” excerpt in the sidebar). On the other hand, it is a state in which racial factors could disrupt the results if there is indeed such a thing as a Bradley effect; it is also a state in which there is no early voting, meaning that Obama has not locked in any state. In other words, it is as good a state as any for McCain to make his last stand.

At the national level, the bottom line remains the same: Pew and CNN released their final polls, and, while the latter shows McCain gaining a massive 9% in one week as undecideds heavily break towards him, both show Obama retaining a comfortable lead. Similarly, the tracking polls are going in both directions, suggesting most of the movement is statistical noise, and all but IBD/TIPP find a solid lead for the Illinois Senator. Overall, Obama is at or above 50% in eight of the nine national polls released today; McCain’s support ranges from 43% to 46%.

Despite what we are hearing left and right, this suggests that there isn’t that much discrepancy between national polls. And even if a number of surveys suggests that undecided voters are moving towards the Republican nominee, he will have to grab the lion share of undecideds while also pulling away support from Obama. That’s a tall order three days from the election, especially because a fair amount of remaining undecideds are disgruntled Republicans unhappy with Bush. Getting them home is a necessary condition for McCain to mount a comeback, but it is not sufficient.

What is perhaps most worrisome for McCain is that Pennsylvania might not even matter if Obama loses the Keystone State but sweeps Colorado, Nevada and Virginia - which new polls suggests he very well might, despite some tightening in polls from the Old Dominion.

However, here is what gives Republicans some hope: For one, the movement among undecideds. Second, the belief that nearly all pollsters are using a false turnout model. Today’s seven Mason-Dixon polls force us to take that possibility seriously, as Mason-Dixon is a very serious polling outfit that has had great success in past cycles. Like seemingly every other poll they have released this cycle, Mason-Dixon’s polls are more favorable to McCain than other pollsters, suggesting that if Mason-Dixon had a national tracking poll they would find a somewhat tighter race than other firms. The early voting data suggests that turnout will be favorable to Democrats, but such disputes are of course why elections are not decided by polls but by voters… (Note, also, that Mason-Dixon’s polls were conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, making them somewhat outdated.)

Obama leads 53% to 46% in CNN’s final national poll conducted Friday and Saturday. Obama has a 8% lead in a four-way race. He led by 5% in a poll conducted two weeks ago.

Obama leads 52% to 46% among likely voters in Pew’s final national poll, conducted Thursday through Saturday. This is quite a drop from Pew’s poll conducted the previous week in which Obama led by 15% among likely voters (53% to 38%, implying that undecided voters have heavily broken towards the Republican). Obama leads by 11% among registered voters. 47% are sure they will not vote for McCain, while only 38% say the same about Obama.

Trackings: Obama gains 2% in Washington Post/ABC (54% to 43%), 1% in Zogby (50% to 44%). The margin is stable in Rasmussen (51% to 46%), in CBS News (54% to 41%) and Research 2000 (51% to 44%). Obama loses 1% in Gallup (52% to 43%, though he loses 2% in the LVT model for an 8% lead), 2% in Hotline (50% to 45%) and in IBD/TIPP (47% to 45%). Obama’s leads are thus: 2%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 9%, 11%, 13%.

Pennsylvania: Obama stops the bleeding in a Rasmussen poll taken Saturday, leading 52% to 46%; that’s up from the 4% he enjoyed in a Thursday poll but 1% down from a poll taken on Monday. Obama leads 52% to 45% in Morning Call’s tracking poll, his smallest lead since October 1st. Obama lead 51% to 44% in a SUSA poll conducted Thursday and Friday (he led by 12% two weeks ago).

Virginia: Obama leads 50% to 46% in a SUSA poll conducted Thursday and Friday, the tightest margin since mid-September. Obama led between 6% and 10% in the past four SUSA polls, though most of the change in this poll can be attributed to a much tighter partisan breakdown. Obama leads 47% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday. Of the 9% who are undecided, 75% live outside of Northern Virginia and more than 90% are white. Obama led by 2% ten days ago.

Colorado: Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. Obama leads among independents by an impressive 25%.

Nevada: Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. That margin is just within the MoE.

Ohio: McCain leads 47% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday. He led by 1% two weeks ago. Obama leads 52% to 46% in a Columbus Dispatch poll that was conducted by mail and that should thus be taken with a huge grain of salt; it widely overstated Democratic support in 2006 though it has also had successes

North Carolina: McCain leads 49% to 46% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday; the candidates were tied two weeks ago.

Missouri: McCain 47% to 46% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday; McCain also led by 1% two weeks ago

Iowa: Obama leads 54% to 37% in Selzer & Co’s very reliable Des Moines Register poll conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Minnesota: Obama leads 53% to 42% in a Star Tribune poll. He led by the same margin two weeks ago.

Michigan: Obama leads 53% to 37% in a Detroit Free Press poll conducted Tuesday through Friday.

New Mexico: Obama leads 52% to 45% in a SUSA poll; Obama leads by 19% among the 60% of voters who say they have already voted.

Safe(r) states: Obama leads 55% to 34% in a Monmouth University poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 57% to 32% in a Deseret poll of Utah. Obama leads 51% to 39% in a University of Washington poll of Washington. Obama leads 56% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Maine. In Kentucky, McCain leads 56% to 40% in a SUSA poll and 51% to 42% in a Mason Dixon poll. Obama leads 60% to 38% in a Rasmussen poll of Illinois.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

Kentucky, Senate race: The two pollsters that had found a dead heat in mid-October now find McConnell pulling ahead. SUSA, which had a tie at 48%, now shows McConnell leading 53% to 45%. Mason Dixon has McConnell gaining four points to grab a 5% lead, 47% to 42%.

Colorado, Senate race: Mark Udall leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll of Colorado’s Senate race, though independents vote for Udall by a large 19%.

Minnesota, Senate race: Al Franken leads 42% to 38% in a Star Tribune poll, with 15% going to Barkley. Two weeks ago, Franken led 39% to 36% with 18% for Barkley.

Washington, gubernatorial race: Christine Gregoire leads 50% to 48% in a University of Washington poll.

Safe(r) seats: Tom Udall leads 56% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Mexico. Frank Lautenberg leads 50% to 31% in a Monmouth University poll of New Jersey. Susan Collins leads 57% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Maine.

In NM-01, an Albuquerque Journal poll conducted this week has Democratic candidate Martin Heinrich leading 47% to 43%.

In NM-02, an Albuquerque Journal poll conducted this week has Democratic candidate Harry Teague leading 45% to 41%.

Mason-Dixon’s Colorado’s poll is further confirmation of the pollster’s GOP lean, as all other pollsters have found a wide Udall lead over the past two weeks; I am not saying that having a GOP lean disqualifies Mason-Dixon (we won’t know whose turnout model is most appropriate until Tuesday), but this one particular margin is not supported by any recent poll. Their poll from Kentucky, however, finds the same findings as SUSA and Rasmussen have this week: Senator McConnell appears to have pulled away. Lunsford is well within striking distance, but with 2 days to go the trendlines favor the incumbent.

In New Mexico, both open races remain highly competitive. (NM-01 is rated lean Democratic in my latest ratings while NM-02 is a toss-up.) The high number of undecided voters in NM-02 leaves hope to Republicans, as that is a conservative district where Republicans could come home.

As early voting ends, turnout remains high, disproportionately Democratic

Published

Taniel

on November 2, 2008

in CO-Pres, GA-Pres, IA-Pres, NC-Pres, NV-Pres and OR-Pres

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Early voting is now closed in a number of the states we have been talking about extensively over the past few weeks, starting with Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. That allows us to take a final look at just who has already cast in a ballot heading into Tuesday’s vote.

Georgia: Early voting closed on Friday, and 1,994,990 votes have cast a ballot, accounting for 35,6% of registered voters and more than 60% of the total 2004 vote. 35,1% of the electorate is African-American, which means that black voters are greatly outpacing whites: 43% of registered blacks voters have cast a ballot versus only 34% of white voters. The electorate is also disproportionately female (56%).

North Carolina: Early voting closed on Saturday, after some counties kept it open 4 extra hours because of heavy turnout. And an incredible 2,661,110 voters cast a ballot early, accounting for 42% of all registered voters and more than 70% of the total 2004 vote. The final partisan breakdown is favorable to Democrats, though it tightened since the first week of early voting: Democrats make up 50,8% of early voters and Republicans make up 30,6% (the breakdown in the 2004 general election was 49% Democratic and 37% Republican). African-Americans make up 26,1% (19% of the 2004 electorate was black).

3,55 million votes were cast in 2004. This year, North Carolina’s election director estimates that 4,5 million votes will be cast. If the latter estimate proves correct, it would mean that 59% of voters have already gone to the polls. That means GOP voters have a lot of catching up to do to bring the share of Democratic voters and African-American voters down to their usual share of the electorate.

Nevada: In Clark County, by far the state’s largest county, 52,3% of all registered voters have cast their ballot, accounting for a staggering 71% of the total 2004 vote! 52% of them are registered Democrats, 30% are registered Republicans - a wider gap than the population at large. Put it another way, 58% of Democrats have already voted versus 54% of Republicans.

The same is also true in Washoe County, where 44% of registered voters cast an early ballot (the number of absentees has not been reported here) accounting for 66% of the total 2004 vote. This is a county where Republicans outnumbered Democrats in 2004 and where today the Democrats’ registration edge is only about 1,000 voters; yet, 47% of early voters were Democratic versus 35% who were Republican. These two counties account for nearly 90% of all Nevada voters, so McCain will need Republicans to significantly outnumber Democrats in Tuesday’s voting if he wants to stay in contact with the Illinois Senator.

Based on these numbers, the Nevada Secretary of State is now predicting that 1,1 million will vote, revising a prior prediction of 1 million. About 800,000 voted in 2004, meaning that the electorate would be vastly expanded - the surest sign yet that Gallup’s expanded likely voter model is a better predictor than the traditional model.

Iowa: Not only do Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans, but a Des Moines Register analysis offers one of the first signs we’ve had that Obama is being successful at turning out sporadic voters. 30% of Democrats who had requested absentee ballots had voted in zero or one of the past three general elections; the same was true of 23% of Republicans.

Colorado and Oregon, where most of the early voting is due to mail-in votes that will continue to pile up until Tuesday: As of Friday night, nearly half of Colorado’s registered voters had cast a ballot, accounting for a jaw-dropping 68% of the total 2004 vote. In Oregon, 48% of Oregon’s registered voters had returned their ballot, but here again Democrats are voting at a far higher pace: 55% of all Democratic voters have already cast their ballot versus 48% of Republicans.

As I explained on Wednesday, the surge in turnout (indicating that many voters will be first-time voters) and the partisan breakdowns put McCain in a lose-lose situation: If Election Day turnout goes through the roof, it would mean even more first time voters; if Election Day turnout remains at a normal level, it could mean that not enough voters have cast a ballot to dilute the Democrats’ advantage in early voting.

—

While all of this is good news for Democrats, the 10 hour lines in some Georgia precincts in the last week of early voting testifies to the fact that election officials do not appear to be ready for the massive surge in turnout we should expect on Tuesday. There are still millions of voters who will go to the polls in states like Georgia, North Carolina and Florida, so think about how swamped poll workers will be in states that did not allow any form of early voting (Pennsylvania, for instance).

Democrats are obviously far more worried about voting problems popping up, long lines leading some to leave or malfunctioning machines leading to problems and controversies. Most problems tend to accumulate in low-income or African-American counties, thus affecting Democratic precincts more than Republican ones. Furthermore, GOP poll-watchers will challenge hundreds of thousands of voters throughout the country, forcing Obama organizers to immediately go into overdrive to help challenged voters prove their identity and get their provisional ballot counted.

At the very least, Democrats can rest assured that the Obama campaign is aware of these challenges. From a reader in Durham, North Carolina:

There are so many Obama volunteers in Durham that I think they have to come up with ideas as to what to do with all of them. I don’t know what all these people are going to do when they wake up (late I’m sure) Wednesday morning.

So the latest, that I’ve heard about- the organization is recruiting volunteer entertainers for Tuesday to entertain people in line waiting to vote at every precinct, to help insure that people stay long enough to vote.

I found this out from a woman who will be belly-dancing at some precinct on Tuesday afternoon. Also lined up are a lot of musicians and at least one magician!

A full spectacle indeed! And if voting lines hit 10 to 12 hours again as they did last week in Georgia, all of this would surely be necessary. It is also likely that judges will rule that polls should be kept open beyond the scheduled time in a number of counties throughout the country, potentially preventing results from being reported for longer than expected and lengthening our Tuesday night.

Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in AL-Pres, AZ-Pres, CA-Pres, CO-Pres, CO-Sen, FL-Pres, IA-Pres, ID-01, ID-Sen, IN-Pres, KS-Pres, KS-Sen, KY-02, KY-Pres, LA-Sen, MA-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-06, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NM-Sen, NV-02, NV-Pres, NY-26, OH-Pres, OR-05, PA-03, PA-Pres, SC-Pres, SD-Pres, Uncategorized, VA-Pres and WI-Pres

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The presidential race remained remarkably stable. If the tracking polls showed McCain gaining slightly yesterday, they have Obama regaining some breathing room today; he is at 50% or above in 6 of the 9 national polls. McCain is once again stuck in the low 40s, with a margin ranging from 41% to 46%. Sure, the New York Times and Fox News national polls came out with differing results, but at least there is no mystery behind the discrepancy: the partisan breakdown has narrowed in the Fox poll.

McCain got one of his most promising polling results in days today as Mason Dixon found him trailing by only 4% in Pennsylvania - the tightest the state has been since a mid-September poll. We should not dismiss this poll, even though surveys taken over the same period show a larger advantage for Obama. Mason Dixon has been consistently releasing results that are better than average for McCain. The Republican nominee led in Virginia when other surveys found him trailing, and trailed only narrowly when other surveys found a large gap; the same was true in Florida and now Pennsylvania. The consistency of these narrower results suggests that it is due to Mason Dixon’s methodology and turnout models, which means that we should not throw these out as outliers: There is a turnout model out there employed by a respected pollster like Mason Dixon that yields results that are better for Republicans, and we won’t know until Tuesday whose assumptions were flawed.

All of this said, there is no discussion to be had that Obama retains an extremely strong position in the electoral college. For one, he remains ahead in the Big Three sates: 3 polls of Pennsylvania show him in the lead (though Mason Dixon has a 4% race), and he is also ahead in Colorado and Virginia. While two polls of Virginia show him with narrower leads than we have seen of late, both surveys were taken over the same period as the CNN and SUSA polls that had him leading by 9% - so these new polls are not picking any new tightening.

To make matters worse for McCain, we might now be getting a third competitive red state where an Obama pick-up appears increasingly likely: Nevada. After posting two double-digit leads earlier this week, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in two new surveys (Suffolk and CNN/Time). This is a very important development: Even if McCain were to save Virginia and Colorado, Obama would become president by winning Nevada alone; if McCain can somehow snatch Pennsylvania, an (not at all improbable) Obama sweep of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would offset the loss of the Keystone State.

As if this was not enough, Ohio and North Carolina are slowly moving in Obama’s column as the Democrat is accumulating good results in both. Today, he leads in all five polls from these two states, and four of them have him ahead outside of the MoE. Given that a huge number of North Carolina voters have already voted, it is starting to get late for McCain to turn the tide. And while Obama is showing no sign of trembling in blue states (he has huge leads in Wisconsin and Minnesota), McCain is now locked in highly competitive races in a number of staunchly red states - including his home state of Arizona, South Dakota and Montana.

Obama leads 52% to 41% in a New York Times/CBS News poll, a very small tightening from Obama’s 13% lead last week. 51% say Obama is ready to be president, and McCain’s favorability has collapsed to 41% (!). So has voters’ estimate of whether Palin is able to deal the job (only 35% say so). Obama leads among men and women, and has a 17% advantage among independents.

Obama leads 47% to 44% in a Fox News national poll conducted over the past two days. Obama led by 9% last week, so the race has substantially tightened. The partisan ID has tightened from a 6% gap to a 2% gap (though this does not seem to be an arbitrary imposition like Zogby’s).

Tracking polls: Obama gains 2% in Zogby (50% to 43%) and in Rasmussen (51% to 46%). He gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48% to 44%). The race is stable in Washington Post/ABC (52% to 44%), Gallup (51% to 44%, though Obama gains 2% in the LVT model, 50% to 45%). Obama loses 1% in Hotline (48% to 42%) and in Research 2000 (50% to 45%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Mason Dixon poll conducted Sunday and Monday. Obama leads 54% to 41% in Morning Call’s tracking, the highest percentage Obama has ever received in this poll. Obama leads 55% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 15% among registered voters!).

Colorado: Obama leads 51% to 45% in a Marist poll (52% to 43% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; his lead comes entirely among the 44% of registered voters who say they have already voted. Obama leads by 23% among independents and has strongest party loyalty (leading me to question why he is only ahead by 6%). Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama leads by 22% among independents.

Virginia: Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Marist poll (by 6% among registered voters) conducted Sunday and Monday; McCain takes a 12% lead among independents. Obama leads 48% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Both polls were taken over the same period as SUSA, Rasmussen and CNN poll showing larger Obama leads.

Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a RGJ/Research 2000 poll (he led by 7% earlier in October); McCain leads by 3% in crucial Washoe County, though the RGJ points out that (unreleased) private polls for both parties have Obama leading that county. Obama leads 52% to 45% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday, an improvement over his 5% lead last week (he leads by 11% among registered voters!).

Ohio: Obama leads 48% to 41% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday; Obama’s lead is outside of the MoE. Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama leads by 10% among registered voters!).

Florida: Obama leads 45% to 44% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday.

North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (McCain led by 2% on Sunday). Obama leads 47% to 43% in a National Journal poll of registered voters with a small sample and a large MoE conducted Thursday through Monday. Obama leads 52% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll conducted Thursday through Tuesday (Obama led by 4% last week, he is ahead by 3% among registered voters).

Indiana: McCain leads 49% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll taken yesterday (he led by 7% three weeks ago). Obama leads 46% to 45% in a Selzer & Co poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday; he is ahead 2:1 among early voters and gets “only” 82% of African-Americans (remember Tuesday’s polling memo released by the McCain campaign?). The candidates are tied at 47% in a Research 2000 poll taken from Friday through Tuesday.

Minnesota: Obama leads 48% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll taken Sunday and Monday; he leads 56% to 37% in a MPR poll.

Wisconsin: Obama takes a giant 55% to 39% lead in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday, up from 8%. Obama leads by 28% among early voters.

Iowa: Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll taken Tuesday and Wednesday.

Arizona: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll; he leads 53% to 46% in a CNN/Time poll.

South Dakota: McCain only leads 45% to 40% in an internal poll for Democratic Senator Johnson’s campaign.

Montana: McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. He led by four weeks ago.

Safe(r) states: McCain leads 61% to 36% in a SUSA poll of Alabama. McCain leads 58% to 37% in a SUSA poll of Kansas. Obama leads 56% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts. Obama leads 55% to 33% in a Field poll of California. Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 53% to 42% in a NBC News poll and 52% to 44% in a SUSA poll of South Carolina (but only by 6% among registered voters). McCain leads 55% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls:

North Carolina’s Senate race: Kay Hagan leads 52% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll. She leads 43% to 37% in a National Journal poll that has a lot of undecided voters.

Louisiana: Two polls have differing results. An internal poll for the Kennedy campaign has Mary Landrieu up 45% to 44%, while a Loyola University poll has Landrieu ahead 49% to 34%; the latter poll does not seem very reliable, however, as it only shows McCain leading by 3% and implying an oversampling of Democrats.

Mark Udall leads 51% to 36% in a National Journal poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Mitch McConnell leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. (McConnell led by the same margin last month.) A Lunsford internal has McConnell leading 47% to 45%, however.

Norm Coleman leads 42% to 36% in a Mason Dixon poll of Minnesota. Barkley is now at 12%, and he is hurting Franken: He draws 17% of Democrats and only 4% of Republicans - a hugely consequential disparity.

Safer seats: Tom Udall leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. GOP Senator Pat Roberts leads 60% to 33% in a new SUSA poll of Kansas. Democratic Senator Lautenberg leads 56% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of New Jersey. Sen. Cornyn leads 45% to 36% in a University of Texas poll, with 5% going to Libertarian candidate Adams-Schick. GOP candidate Jim Risch leads 45% to 33% in a Harstad poll of Idaho.

In MO-06, perhaps the most disappointing House race for Democrats, GOP Rep. Graves leads 54% to 36% in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

In KY-02, GOP candidate Brett Guthrie leads 53% to 43% in a new SUSA poll. Guthrie led by 9% last month but trailed over the summer.

In NV-02, GOP Rep. Heller leads 47% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll.

In OR-05, Democratic candidate Kurt Schrader leads 55% to 33% in a SUSA poll.

In NY-26, Republican candidate Chris Lee has a large 48% to 34% lead against Alice Kryzan in a SUSA poll. He led by 11% last month.

In ID-01, Democratic challenger leads 48% to 41% in a Harstad poll, though the poll has a large MoE of 6%.

In PA-12, Rep. Murtha only leads 46% to 44% in a GOP poll conducted by Dane & Associates.

In PA-03, GOP Rep. English leads 47% to 45% in his own internal poll.

In Massachusetts’s question 1 to repeal the state income tax, the “no” is far ahead, 64% to 29% in a SUSA poll.

Democrats have their share of very good news in these wave of surveys - especially the two North Carolina polls showing a Hagan lead and the NV-02 survey confirming that Rep. Heller is in real danger - Republicans got uncommly positive numbers over the past 24 hours. In the Senate, Republicans appear to be solidifying their hold on the four Senate seats that are not yet leaning Democratic - KY, MN, MS and also GA because a runoff should help Chambliss. McConnell has not slipped further after his race fell into a competitive race in early October, and Coleman has improved his situation over the past three weeks.

Minnesota should be particularly worrisome to Democrats because Franken’s slippage is due to the fact that Barkley is starting to draw disproportionately from Franken’s base. If that is confirmed by other polls, it is hard to see Franken pull this off. This is a reminder that, however much progress Democrats have made over the past few weeks, the path to 60 still requires picking-up two out of these 4 seats - and that remains a tall order.

The latest House polls should also be a reminder that Democrats will certainly not win everything on Tuesday, and that a fair number of Republicans appear to be making progress in this hostile environment. The latest poll of MO-06 has to be crushing to Democrats as former Kansas City Mayor Barnes was once one of their top recruits. And while the DCCC is still investing in NY-26, the polls have not been very promising ever since Kryzan won the Democratic nomination.

Battleground watch: Early voting surges in CO and NC, campaigns focus on Florida

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, NC-Pres and NV-Pres

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In two battleground states - Colorado and North Carolina - the number of early voters just passed the mark of 50% of the total number of ballots cast in 2004. Nevada is set to join that group by the end of today, and other states also have monstrous early voting rates.

Since all the data suggests that early voters are significantly more Democratic and African-American than the electorate at large, this means that McCain will need very strong numbers among voters who will cast a ballot on Election Day to win those states - particularly since the early voting totals in those states will grow much more over the next few days.

This puts McCain in somewhat of a lose-lose situation in those states. If turnout on Election Day is low, it would mean that more than half of the Colorado, North Carolina and Nevada voters will have cast an early ballot, making it very difficult for McCain to close the gap. If so many people come out on Election Day that early voting does not represent that high a proportion of all voters, it would mean that 2008 turnout has shattered the 2004 totals and that there are a lot of first-time or sporadic voters - and that would be an amazing development for Obama.

(Democrats got more good news in Colorado today when voting right groups cut a deal with the Secretary a State to ensure that new voters whose names have been purged since May not only can cast a provisional ballot but have those provisional ballots presumed to be valid unless officials prove otherwise. This is a huge shift from the usual standard under which it is up to challenged voters to prove they are eligible.)

McCain’s hope then has to be that Republicans are simply waiting to vote until Election Day while Democrats have been pushed to vote early, so that not (comparatively) Democrats will be left by Tuesday. And there is some evidence to back that theory: In both Nevada and North Carolina, the electorate is turning more Republican by the day:

In Nevada’s huge Clark County, the share of Democratic vote has been declining for each of the part four days (from 53% to 47,5% ) and it was in the high 50s in the first three days of voting; the share of the GOP vote started off at 23% but comprised a high of 34% of yesterday’s vote. The same trend is true in Nevada’s swing Washoe County: Yesterday’s partisan breakdown was the tightest yet (43-38, versus 48-35 a week ago).

In North Carolina, more than 224,457 voters cast a ballot yesterday alone. 33% of them were Republicans; 48% were Democrats, and less than 23% were African-American. Those percentages are far more favorable to Republicans than they were a week ago, when more black voters were casting a ballot than Republicans.

This data might back up Republican hopes that the Democratic advantage is fading. However, was anyone expecting the electorate’s partisan and racial breakdown to stay what we have been seeing over the past week? These numbers might not be as jaw-droppingly good for Democrats as we have gotten used to, but Democrats and African-Americans continue to vote at far greater proportions than their share of the electorate well into the second week of early voting!

Yes, yesterday’s share of the black vote in North Carolina is smaller than it was a few days ago (23% instead of 28%), but it remains far superior to the 19% of black voters that made up the 2004 electorate. That black turnout keep out-pacing white turnout day in and day out is remarkable given how many black voters have already cast their ballot (meaning that there is a smaller pool of black voters who have yet to cast a ballot).

Given all of this data, it has become fairly inconceivable that black voters would not represent a greater share of the electorate than they did four years ago.

Since nearly all black voters will cast their ballot for Barack Obama (and other Democratic candidates), even a small increase would be hugely beneficial to Democrats: The share of the African-American vote does not have to rise from 19% to 26% (where it is now in early voting data) to impact results; even a boost to 21% or 22% could make a difference in tight races. (This is not something pollsters are taking that much into account: 20% of the sample of SUSA’s latest poll from North Carolina is African-American, which is approximately the 2004 level.)

—

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is paying a huge amount of attention to Florida - a remarkable development given that the state was the one place Obama appeared to be weaker than a generic Democratic when he wrapped up the nomination. We got our first hint of this in September when David Plouffe announced his campaign’s huge budgetary commitment to Florida; then, Obama camped in the state for a fewy days while preparing for the first debate; and he held a number of rallies last week to coincidence with the start of early voting, including one with Hillary Clinton.

Yesterday was further proof of Obama’s dedication to winning the state’s 27 electoral votes. This is the state in which he held his first joint appearance with Bill Clinton, and his 30-minute infomercial ended with a live address from… Florida. Now, Obama is sending in Al Gore to campaign on his behalf in the Sunshine State, confirming the impressive network of surrogates he is deploying.

While the amount of attention lavished on Florida might be surprising given that Obama’s chances appear far better in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada (any one of which would suffice if Obama all blue states), one reason for these efforts might be that Florida’s demographics are different than those of other states, so that even if McCain somehow manages a comeback in a state like Pennsylvania, that does not mean he can pull off a similar reversal in Florida. And given how many electoral votes the state has, a victory here would leave McCain with no path to victory - not to mention what Democratic gains in the state could mean for upcoming election cycles.

Furthermore, Obama’s dedication to Florida has forced the McCain campaign to invest a large amount of resources to a state they were hoping to win easily; given that this state is a money pit with a high number of expensive media markets, Florida’s competitiveness has ruined the McCain campaign and prevented them from investing in other crucial swing states. Now, McCain appears to have convinced Charlie Crist to take a more active role on his behalf, as the Florida Governor (who played such a crucial role in McCain’s primary victory at the end of January and who was on the Republican VP list) has cut an ad touting the Republican nominee:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6bch821eRc"]

The McCain campaign’s stunning decision to accuse Obama of anti-Semitism (with their offensive on Khalidi, their charge that Obama is paling around with anti-Semites and their transparent allusion to Reverend Wright) is another tactic aimed at Florida via its substantial Jewish vote.

As Obama outspends him in battlegrounds, McCain faces electoral map dilemmas

Published

Taniel

on October 28, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-Pres and VA-Pres

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Nielsen’s handy tracker of the number of ads Obama and McCain have been airing every day over the past month gives us a better idea of where the candidates are investing. There are two noticeable trends across these states. First, McCain continues to be significantly outspent in most of these battleground states (especially in Florida).

Second, Obama has slightly decreased the volume of ads compared to the first two weeks of October. This suggests that the Illinois Senator saturated the airwaves over that period (which is confirmed by his campaign filings that indicated that he spent more than $100 million in that period), which helps explain that he inched ahead in many of these battleground states.

In Missouri, not much has changed throughout October, though Obama looks like he has had to decrease the number of his ads a bit. In Georgia, it looked like Obama was back in the state as of mid-October but neither candidate is now investing significant amounts. In Virginia, Obama continues to dominate McCain on the airwaves - but he is airing less spots than he once was.

In Pennsylvania, both campaigns are investing less than they were the first two weeks of October - remarkably so given how crucial Pennsylvania has become to McCain’s electoral hopes. The same is true in Ohio: the spending disparity is remarkable, but so is the drop in number of aired ads (especially on the part of the Obama campaign):

Even more dramatic than Ohio’s financial disparity is Florida’s. McCain is running more ads than he used to while Obama is airing slightly less than earlier in October, but just a glance at this graph illustrates how much Obama has dominated the state’s airwaves and how he has manged to take a lead in most recent Florida polls:

In Colorado, meanwhile, Nielsen’s tracking confirms last week’s reports that the McCain campaign has dramatically scaled back its expenditures in a state that is a must-win for the Republican unless he can somehow pick-up Pennsylvania. McCain has been largely absent from the state’s airwaves for days:

So with the campaign now entering its last days, the electoral map is getting clearer: The McCain campaign is truly scaling back its efforts in Colorado… while the RNC is being forced to pay attention attention to staunchly red states like West Virginia and Montana.

Take this as further evidence that the GOP is in such a precarious position that they can no longer finda coherent strategy to reach 270 electoral votes and are left praying for an electoral college miracle.

Last week, Republicans realized that they could no longer afford playing in all the competitive states - nor in all the states they need to win to get McCain an electoral college majority. The GOP concluded that it needed to pick a few states in which to make a stand, and then hope that a shift of momentum put McCain in a position to capture states like Pennsylvania that right now appear out of reach.

This makes it somewhat puzzling that the GOP has chosen to make such an effort this late in the game in states like North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri - states Obama does not need to win the presidency.

McCain needs to prevail in at least one state in which Obama now enjoys a sizable lead (PA, CO and VA), and he will not be in a position to score such an upset unless he can first change the national mood (increased spending in Colorado could help him rise one or two points, not close a high single-digit gap). In other words, a necessary but not sufficient condition for a McCain victory in states he needs to wins is a tightening in national polls.

But if a meaningful change in the national environment were to occur, McCain has to assume that he would regain his footing in conservative-leaning states like North Carolina, Indiana and Missouri - meaning that the same phenomenon he desperately needs to achieve victory in Pennsylvania, Virginia or Colorado should help him protect his endangered base states.

In those conditions, was it a good decision for the McCain campaign to scale back expenditures in Colorado and use that money to shore up defenses elsewhere? Given that Colorado’s 9 electoral votes are so crucial to McCain’s survivals it seems incredible for Republicans to bank that a comeback would allow them to suddenly put Pennsylvania into play without similarly tightening Colorado, Wisconsin or Minnesota and without allowing McCain to gain an edge in staunchly red states.

Of course, that McCain is facing such painful dilemmas at all is a reflection of the Obama campaign’s brilliant map expansion strategy. Reading current campaign coverage, one might get the impression that all these states just suddenly appeared on our radar screen after the economic crisis struck; in fact, we had been talking about Indiana and North Carolina for months, as the Obama campaign has aired ads in them throughout the summer - so much so that we had been discussing Obama’s strategy at length ever since the wrapped up the Democratic nomination. Here is why I wrote, for instance, on July 21st:

It is probable, then, that Obama’s red state strategy will turn into a win-win scenario: Either they organize and advertise without a response and have a chance at pulling upsets or they force the GOP to defend states that should be on no one’s radar screen.

In fact, Obama’s red state strategy worked even better than that, and Democrats got the better of both worlds: They forced the GOP to play defense and Obama still has an excellent shot to pull off these upsets. And the reason for this is that Republicans woke up too late: Had they invested significant amounts in Indiana and North Carolina over the summer, they might have appealed to the electorate’s conservative instincts and crushed Obama’s growth before it was too late. This will no doubt be remembered as one of the main strategic mistakes of the McCain campaign.

Poll watch: Trackings tighten (a bit), but Obama dominates in VA, CO, PA, OH, FL and NV; Wicker opens wide lead

Published

Taniel

on October 28, 2008

in AR-Pres, AZ-Pres, CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-08, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IN-03, IN-Pres, KS-03, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, MT-Pres, NC-08, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NH-Pres, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NV-Pres, Nat-Poll, OH-15, OH-Pres, OR-Sen, PA-Pres, Uncategorized, VA-Pres and WI-Pres

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We start, as will now be customary, with the three states that we should be watching over this closing week: Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. New polls were released today in each and they find Obama in command: He extends his lead by 3% in the latest Insider Advantage poll of Colorado, leads by 9% in Virginia and has a sizable edge in three Pennsylvania surveys (7% to 12%). That said, both Insider Advantage and Rasmussen suggest that there might be some tightening in the Keystone State, and Obama is no longer enjoying consistent double-digit leads.

It is a testament to just how huge a lead he had seized that he remains so firmly in command of Pennsylvania despite shedding nearly half of his lead in Rasmussen’s survey. And it is also a testament to Obama’s remarkably strong electoral map that he has so many other options even if McCain somehow manages to pull off one of the three states listed above.

If Obama were to lose Pennsylvania, for instance, Nevada would suffice to compensate - and two new polls out today show Obama leading outside of the margin of error and by as much as 10%. Keep in mind that the demographics of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada are very similar, so a comeback in the former wouldn’t mean that McCain is coming back in the three latter ones. McCain trails outside of the MoE in two new polls of Ohio (4% and 9%) and two new polls of Florida (5% and 7%). McCain still has a lot of work to do in all of these states.

As has been the case over the past few days, the tightest contests are taking place in states that Obama does not need: Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, Georgia and… Arizona are all within the margin of error in new polls. Losing any of these would be a catastrophe for the GOP.

McCain supporters can at least take comfort in the composite of the tracking polls, as McCain continues to close the gap after already tightening the race somewhat yesterday. But he continues to trail, and a Pew national poll taken over the same period finds disastrous numbers for McCain (I don’t believe McCain had ever trailed by 16% in a poll before). On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

Obama leads 53% to 38% in a national Pew poll conducted Thursday through Monday; the margin is 16% with registered voters. 74% of Obama’s supporters describe themselves as “strong” supporters, versus 56% of McCain’s. Obama leads among men, women, every age group, independents and by 19% among early voters.

Obama leads 50% to 45% in an ARG national poll thanks to 83% of Democrats and a 12% lead among independents.

McCain makes some progress in the latest tracking polls: He gains 3% in Gallup (51-44, and only 49-47 in the LVT model), 1% in Research 2000 (50-43), 1% in Zogby (49-45). The race is stable in Hotline (50-42), Washington Post/ABC (52-45) and Rasmussen (51-46). Obama gains 1% in IBD/TIPP (48-44). That means that Obama’s leads are: 4%, 4%, 5%, 7%, 7%, 7%, 8%.

Colorado: Obama leads 53% to 45% in a new Insider Advantage poll, based on his staggering 81% among Hispanics. Obama led by 5% last week. The poll was conducted on Sunday.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 51% to 42% in an Insider Advantage poll of Pennsylvania; a separate IA poll of suburban Bucks County finds Obama leading by 3% (the same as Kerry), a 3% decline since a poll two weeks ago. This poll was conducted on Sunday. Obama leads 53% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll; that’s a drop from Obama’s 13% margin three weeks ago. No movement in the Morning Call tracking poll, however, where Obama leads 53% to 41%.

Virginia: Obama leads 48% to 39% in a Roanoke College poll. The poll was conducted over eight days, however, from the 19th through yesterday.

Ohio: Obama leads 49% to 40% in a new LAT/Bloomberg poll conducted Saturday through yesterday. (A fascinating internal: Obama wins white, working class voters 52% to 38%). Obama leads 49% to 45% in a SUSA poll conducted on Sunday and Monday. Obama led by 5% two weeks ago. He leads by 17% among the 22% of respondents who say they have already voted.

Florida: Obama leads 50% to 43% in a new LAT/Bloomberg poll conducted Saturday through yesterday. Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Datamar poll.

Nevada: Obama leads 50% to 40% in a Suffolk poll conducted from the 23rd through the 27th, with 2% for Barr and 1% each for McKinney and Nader. Obama leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll in which he led by 5% two weeks ago.

North Carolina: The candidates are tied at 47% in a week-end Mason Dixon/NBC poll. In a PPP poll of the 8th district, Obama leads by 6% which is a 14% swing since 2004, about what Obama needs statewide to win the state.

Indiana: Three polls in Indiana show a highly competitive race. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll (the candidates were tied three weeks ago.) McCain leads 47% to 45% in a Howey/Gauge poll. In a separate Research 2000 poll of IN-03, McCain leads 53% to 38% - which is great news for Obama since Bush won the district 68% to 31% (that’s a 22% swing towards Obama, essentially what he needs statewide to carry the state).

New Hampshire: Obama leads 50% to 39% in a week-end Mason Dixon/NBC poll.

Wisconsin: Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll. He led by the same margin last month.

Arizona: A new Cronkite/Eight poll has McCain leading only 46% to 44%.

Montana: McCain leads 48% to 44% in a week-end Mason Dixon/NBC poll (I am not sure whether Ron Paul’s name was included).

Georgia: McCain leads 48% to 47% in an Insider Advantage poll of Georgia.

Safer states: McCain leads 53% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Mississippi. McCain leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Arkansas. Obama leads 53% to 38% in a Strategic Vision poll of New Jersey.

Meanwhile, in down the ballot surveys:

Roger Wicker jumps to a big 54% to 43% lead in a Rasmussen poll of Mississippi’s Senate race. He only led by 2% in September.

Saxby Chambliss leads 46% to 44,5% in an Insider Advantage poll of Georgia’s Senate race, with 2% going to other (it looks like Buckley’s name was not included).

Jeff Merkley leads 45% to 40% in a Hibbits poll of Oregon’s Senate race conducted from the 22nd to the 25th. No mention of early voting, unfortunately.

Bev Perdue leads McCrory 47% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race.

Frank Lautenberg leads 49% to 41% in a Strategic Vision poll of the New Jersey Senate race.

In IN-03, GOP Rep. Souder leads 45% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll, with 4% going to Libertarian candidate Bill Larsen. In a Howey Gauge poll of the district, however, it is Democratic challenger Montagano who leads 44% to 41% (this latter poll has a large 6% MoE).

In NC-08, Larry Kissell leads GOP Rep. Hayes 51% to 46% in a PPP poll.

In OH-15, Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy leads 47% to 41% in a SUSA poll, with 6% going to conservative independent candidate Don Eckart. 37% of respondents say they have already voted, and Kilroy leads by 16%.

In GA-08, Democratic Rep. Marshall leads 49% to 45% in a SUSA poll. Marshall immediately released an internal poll showing him leading 48% to 31%.

In KS-03, Democratic Rep. Moore leads 53% to 42% in a SUSA poll.

The most important of the day’s congressional poll undoubtedly comes from Mississippi, where Republican Senator Roger Wicker jumps to a commanding lead - suggesting that Democrats might not be as close to a Senate sweep after all (Mississippi’s Senate race is currently ranked 9th in my Senate rankings). The Insider Advantage poll from Georgia, meanwhile, is further evidence that we might not get a resolution on November 4th, as both candidate are far from the 50% mark - especially since the Libertarian candidate was not even included as an option in this survey.

At the House level, Democratic taek-over opportunities in NC-08 and OH-15 (both rated lean Democratic in my latest ratings) continue to look good for Democratic, and the IN-03 numbers are outstanding: this is a massively Republican district that voted for Bush by 37% in 2004! It was on no one’s radar screen as of the end of September, and has now become a highly vulnerable district. If Rep. Souder falls, IN-03 will be remembered as one of the great upsets of the 2008 cycle.

SUSA’s GA-08 poll, however, is a reminder that there are a number of Democratic seats at risk as well. Marshall barely survived the 2006 cycle (in fact, he looked gone for much of the cycle), and it looks like this race might keep us late yet again.

Ground wars: RNC spending in MT, Dems dominate early voting (Updated with Crist’s FL surprise)

Published

Taniel

on October 28, 2008

in CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, LA-Pres, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NV-Pres, OR-Pres and WV-Pres

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If Barack Obama wins the national vote in a landslide, the election will most probably not be decided in a state-by-state warfare or on the basis of organizational muscle, but if McCain’s tightens the race in the coming days the election will of course be decided by the candidate’s ground game and investments in the most crucial swing states. So let’s take a look at the latest developments in early voting and presidential expenditures.

RNC in Montana and West Virginia: Barack Obama has had Montana’s airwaves all to himself for months; in West Virginia, he only started airing ads in the entire state a few weeks ago. The RNC’s independent expenditure division (i.e. this is not a decision made by the McCain campaign) is now going to air ads in both states. Both of their decision are somewhat surprising to me.

In Montana, the GOP could have afford to spend money months ago: this is a relatively cheap state to air ads in, and it will not cost the RNC that much to air these ads. But given how the electoral map is shaping now, it is very doubtful that Montana’s 3 electoral votes would make a difference. Under no obvious scenario would Obama be within 3 EVs of an electoral college majority. If he keeps blue states, IA and NM, he needs 5 more electoral votes; If Obama wins Colorado and Virginia but somehow loses Pennsylvania, he needs 4 more electoral votes. There is no one state with which Montana could be combined that wouldn’t also get Obama to 269 all by itself.

West Virginia, meanwhile, looks far less secure than it did a few weeks ago - but it is far less vulnerable than red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. With a few days of campaigning to go, it looks unlikely that West Virginia will go Democratic unless Obama wins a gigantic landslide that leaves him with more than 350 electoral votes. That is not the case in either of the three states I mentioned above, all of which look as competitive as they could possibly be. Given McCain’s relatively weak organization in IN or NC, for instance, it is conceivable that he loses either before losing Ohio or Florida.

Early voting: What is most remarkable about the latest early voting data is that turnout among Democratic voters continues to significantly outpace Republican turnout, and that the disparities we started witnessed two weeks ago is holding day after day. Yes, yesterday Nevada and North Carolina Republicans voted in greater numbers than they had over the past week, but they remained far under their share of the electorate - and the already-high share of Georgia’s African-American vote increased even more. Here is a quick overview of the most interesting developments:

In Georgia, more than 1,2 million voters have already voted, accounting for 22% of registered voters and 36% of the 2004 electorate. Amazingly, African-Americans increased their share of the electorate over the past day and now make up 35,3% of early voters.
In a heavily African-American suburb of Georgia, the waiting line yesterday was 12 hours - and people actually waited. I repeat: 12 hours. Would many of you wait for 12 hours before voting? It seems like the fear of disenfranchisement among African-Americans is pushing for massive early turnout.

In North Carolina, more than 200,000 voters cast a ballot yesterday alone, bringing the total above 1,4 million. That accounts for 22% of registered voters and 40% of the 2004 electorate. African-Americans make up 28,1% of early voters (they made up 19% of the 2004 electorate), and the partisan breakdown is: 54,1% Democratic, 28,1% Republican. That is actually a significant improvement for Republicans over the breakdown through yesterday.
Further confirmation of North Carolina’s statewide trends comes from county-specific data: Early voting turnout in heavily Democratic and heavily African-American Durham County, for instance, is remarkably high.

Louisiana might not be suspenseful at the presidential level, but the Senate race is competitive and early voting data offers us another look at black turnout: 34,3% of early voters are African-American for now (that is a smaller uptick than in other states, as African-Americans make up nearly 32% of the population according to the 2006 census estimates). Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1.

In Florida, more than 2 million voters have already cast a ballot, accounting for 18% of registered voters and 27% of the 2004 electorate. The partisan breakdown is narrower than in other states (45-40 for Democrats) because of Republican success in implementing their absentee voter program, but far more Democrats are voting early in person, so the gap could widen.

In Colorado, a 25% of registered voters have already cast their ballot, accounting for 37,9% of the 2004 electorate. The partisan breakdown is outdated, however.

In Oregon, 18% of registered voters had returned their ballot by mail as of Monday (that means that all ballots mailed over the week-end are not yet included in the totals).

In Nevada, we can take a detailed look at the state’s 2 biggest counties (Clark and Washoe), which account for 87% of the state’s registered voters. In both states, the first week of early voting had Democrats turning out in incredible numbers - but Republicans have been voting in greater numbers over the past 3 days. That said, Democrats retain a commanding advantage.
In Clark County (which Kerry won by 5% in 2004) 34% of all registered voters have already cast a ballot. 54% of early voters are Democrats while 29% are Republicans; put it another way, 38% of registered Democrats have already voted, while 33% of registered Republicans have voted.
In swing Washoe County, which Bush won by 4%, 26% of all registered voters have already cast a ballot. 51% of early voters are Democratic and 33% are Republican - a far bigger advantage than the registration breakdown.

Now, this is not to say that the final voter breakdown will be anything like it is now, and polls indicate that far more Republican-leaning voters will vote on November 4th (PPP provides some detail in its new North Carolina survey: 49% of African-American likely voters have already cast a ballot versus 29% of white likely voters).

This does mean, however, that the Democratic base is enthusiastic, is heavily turning out this week - and will probably heavily turn out next week. In particular, it now looks guaranteed that there will be a significant boost in African-American turnout, boosting Democratic prospects. Obama’s turnout machine is functioning, and the burden is now on Republicans to demonstrate that they can match it. Given that this turnout gap is something we witnessed throughout the primary season, it will not necessarily be easy for Republicans to do. Can they really bring a 2:1 gap in Nevada and North Carolina all the way down to where it should be?

Also: while early voters are more likely to be partisans who would never change their mind rather than wavering voters who are locking in their votes while still being persuadable, early voting turnout is huge enough in some states (especially Colorado and North Carolina) that a number of voters who might have still moved back towards McCain might have already cast their ballot for Obama.

Update: Florida’s Republican Governor Charlie Crist just signed an executive order extending early voting hours in the Sunshine state, meaning that polls will now be open twelve hours a day rather than eight hours. Given how much effort Obama has put into boosting early voting in Florida, this is a major boost to his campaign and it should help Democrats get as many sporadic voters to the polls as they can while reducing lines and smoothing the process. Republicans are clearly not happy about this, though it will be difficult for them to complain too much given that Crist is a McCain surrogate - albeit an atypical one.

Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, gains edge in OH, Merkley in strong position, Lampson drowns

Published

Taniel

on October 27, 2008

in AZ-Pres, CA-04, CA-Pres, CO-Pres, CO-Sen, CT-Pres, FL-25, FL-Pres, IN-Pres, MO-Gov, MO-Pres, MS-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NH-Pres, NV-Pres, OH-15, OH-Pres, OR-Pres, OR-Sen, PA-Pres, SC-01, TX-07, TX-22, VA-Pres, WA-Gov, WA-Pres and WV-Pres

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In my latest presidential ratings this morning, I identified the three states to watch in the election’s final stretch: Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. Eight days from the election, Obama holds strong in those crucial states: A grand total of five new Virginia polls were released today, finding a consistent Obama advantage. Only Rasmussen found Obama holding a lead smaller than 7%, the four others having Obama’s lead go as high as 11%. Only one poll each from Colorado and Pennsylvania were released: Obama was leading comfortably in Pennsylvania, though his margin in Colorado is smaller than Democrats are hoping to see (4%).

That said, there is some movement in McCain’s favor in the tracking polls, and I feel compelled to point that out because of what I said in yesterday’s poll watch, when remarking on McCain’s inability to break out of the low 40s: “The day McCain manages to inch above 45%, we can think about whether the race is tightening.” Today, McCain gets to 46% in one national poll and is at 45% in three more. But Obama remains in a dominant position, as he is at 50% or above in six of the seven tracking polls; only IBD/TIPP has him at a weaker position, and that tracking’s internals are rather strange (Obama enjoys stronger party loyalty and leads among independents but only leads by 3%).

In other states, Obama’s strong position is confirmed: New polls in Ohio and Florida find Obama holding an advantage, especially in the former state. In fact, Rasmussen’s polls from these two states should put to rest talk of a tightening since Obama gains 5% and 6% in the two surveys over those released last Monday.

McCain’s two best trendlines today come from PPP’s North Carolina survey (that had Obama up 7% last week, up 1% today) and SUSA and Rasmussen’s Missouri polls (Obama led by 8% and 5%, he now ties and is ahead by 1%), but the size of Obama’s lead in all three of these surveys was not confirmed by other polls, making this week’s surveys expected regressions to the mean. In fact, it is great for Obama is that the true toss-ups are not the states he needs to win but rather places like North Carolina or Missouri: six new polls in those two states find tight races. Even Arizona polls are now showing a competitive race!

Obama remains ahead in the day’s tracking polls, though there is some movement: Obama loses a significant three points in Research 2000 (50% to 42%, with a 5% lead in the Sunday sample) and Rasmussen (51% to 46%); he also loses 1% in IBD/TIPP (47% to 44%). Three trackings are stable: Washington Post/ABC (52% to 45%), Hotline (50% to 42%) and Zogby (50% to 45%). Obama inches up one point in Gallup (53% to 43%, the same margin as RVs and double his lead in the LVT model). That means that Obama’s leads are: 3%, 5%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 8% and 10%.

Virginia: Five new polls have Obama in the lead by margins ranging from 4% to 11%. The two most recent are Rasmussen and SUSA: Obama leads 52% to 43% in a SUSA poll, including a huge lead among early voters. His lead in Rasmussen is smaller: 51% to 47%, down from a 10% lead last week.
Obama leads 52% to 45% in a Zogby poll conducted over the week-end. Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Washington Post poll. (He led by 3% last month. This time, 50% of respondents say they have been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. The enthusiasm gap is huge, with 70% of Obama supporters describing themselves as enthusiastic.) Obama leads 51% to 40% in a VCU poll.

Ohio: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Zogby poll, in which he has a 16% edge among independents. Obama leads 49% to 45% in Rasmussen, a 6% swing from last week.

Colorado: Obama leads 50% to 46% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for McCain over last week.

Missouri: The candidates are tied at 48% in a SUSA poll. Obama leads 48% to 46% in a Zogby poll. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll.

Florida: The candidates are tied at 47% in a Zogby poll, though Obama has a strangely large 62-25 lead among independents. Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Suffolk poll of the state (up from 4%). Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll, a 5% swing in his favor since last week.

Pennsylvania: Obama leads 50% to 41% in a Temple University poll. The survey was conducted over an entire week (from the 20th to the 26th), however.

Nevada: Obama leads 48% to 44% in a Zogby poll, barely outside of the margin of error.

North Carolina: Obama leads 50% to 46% in a Zogby poll. Obama leads 49% to 48% in a PPP poll, though he led by 7% last week. There are far less undecided voters this week. However, among early voters (about a third of the sample), Obama leads 63% to 36% (”looking at it another way, 49% of blacks in our survey said they had already voted. Only 29% of white voters said the same”). McCain leads 49% to 48% in Rasmussen, a 1% gain for Obama since late last week.

Iowa: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a Marist poll, the same margin he enjoyed last month.

New Hampshire: Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Marist poll, a one point decline since September.

Indiana: McCain leads 50% to 44% in a Zogby poll.

West Virginia: McCain leads 50% to 40% in a Zogby poll, thanks in part to 28% of Democratic voters.

Oregon: Obama leads 57% to 38% in a SUSA poll. Half of the electorate has already voted (remember that all of Oregon votes by mail), and Obama leads by 28% among those voters.

Arizona: The third poll in two days finds McCain in trouble in his home state. He leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll.

Washington: Obama leads 55% to 34% in a University of Washington poll.

Safe states: Obama leads 56% to 31% in a Hartford Courant poll of Connecticut. McCain leads 46% to 33% in a Press Register poll of Mississippi. Obama leads 61% to 34% in a Rasmussen poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Jeff Merkley leads 49% to 42% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. Half of the electorate has already voted, and Merkley leads by 10% among those voters.

Mark Udall leads 51% to 38% in a Rocky Mountain News poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Kay Hagan leads 48% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 8% last week.

Jay Nixon leads 55% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.

Christine Gregoire leads 51% to 45% in a University of Washington poll of the Washington gubernatorial race.

In TX-22, Republican challenger Pete Olson leads Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson 53% to 36% in a new Zogby poll.

In FL-25, GOP Rep. Diaz-Balart leads 45% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. Among early voters, Garcia leads 52% to 46%.

In CA-04, Democratic candidate Charlie Brown leads 48% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.

In SC-01, GOP Rep. Harry Brown leads 50% to 45% in a new SUSA poll.

In TX-07, GOP Rep. Culberson leads 47% to 40% in a Zogby poll.

In OH-15, Marie Joe Kilroy leads 46% to 37% in a Kilroy internal.

Jeff Merkley’s numbers are the most important of this group, as this is the Oregon Democrat’s largest lead yet against Gordon Smith, who continues to be stuck in the low 40s. More importantly, SUSA’s polls confirms what was one of the main reasons I changed the ratings of the race to lean Democratic two days ago: Because of Oregon’s mail-in voting system, Election Day is happening right now in Oregon, giving Smith no time to catch up. While remaining ahead, Kay Hagan does not look to be as favored as her Oregon colleague.

A number of fascinating indepenent House polls were released as well, the most noteworthy of which is Zogby’s survey from TX-22: This was long seen as an extremely highly endangered Democatic seat, but the DCCC’s decision to dump hundreds of thousands of dollars suggested they saw Lampson with a chance at surviving. Zogby’s poll indicates that the conventional wisdom was right and that Lampson is an underdog in what is one of the most Republican seats represented by a Democrat. That said, the DCCC has just debuted a very hard-hitting ad on Pete Olsen, accusing him of voter fraud. We will see whether that moves any numbers.

As for CA-04, SC-01 and TX-07, all three are heavily Republican districts and for independent polls to find the Republican under 50% in each and the Democrat leading in one is obviously major news, and confirms that Democrats can expect to prevail in a few heavily conservative seats on November 4th.

Twitter

Obviously major HCR development. RT @senatus Parliamentarian rules Senate can't use reconciliation on bill not law yet http://bit.ly/bQyvWq

Good post on how Kendrick Meek doesn't trail b/c of massive shift towards GOP but b/c of apathy among Dem voters: http://bit.ly/btUyh1

How little pressure/coverage John Ensign has faced is a sad sight compared to the constant resignation demands Paterson is dealing with.

Richard Hanna, NY-24 candidate touted by NRCC, says: “I never really thought of myself as a Republican. I still don’t” http://bit.ly/9My2ji

RT @jonathanhsinger RT @BreakingNews Israel’s Labour Party may quit ruling coalition over settlement decision: http://bit.ly/9I7Jo0

Dems catch big break with Hafer's withdrawal in PA-12. GOP will likely struggle with a primary simultaneous to special election - Dems won't

Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'NC-Pres' Category

Absentees, provisionals, recounts and runoffs: Update on the 10 remaining congressional seats

With Jeff Merkley, Senate Dems get to 57 seats and prepare for IL, DE and MA free-for-alls

Final poll watch: No late movement

Presidential polling: Obama closes campaign in strong position

Poll watch: McCain tightens national race and PA but remains far behind; McConnell pulls ahead

As early voting ends, turnout remains high, disproportionately Democratic

Poll watch: Dems still far from 60, and is NV in the same tier as CO and VA?

Battleground watch: Early voting surges in CO and NC, campaigns focus on Florida

As Obama outspends him in battlegrounds, McCain faces electoral map dilemmas

Poll watch: Trackings tighten (a bit), but Obama dominates in VA, CO, PA, OH, FL and NV; Wicker opens wide lead

Ground wars: RNC spending in MT, Dems dominate early voting (Updated with Crist’s FL surprise)

Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, gains edge in OH, Merkley in strong position, Lampson drowns

2010: Governor Rankings

2010: Senate Rankings

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