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RNCC works on firewall, DCCC invests in new districts and passes $1 million mark in many

Published
by
Taniel
on October 14, 2008
in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-16, FL-21, FL-26, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-10, TX-23, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08 and WI-08
. 0 Comments

As the time comes for the party committees to buy time for the upcoming week, the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle and will seats to become competitive once again makes itself felt. The DCCC spent more than $8 million on more than 40 districts, moved in four new races it had not yet spent any money on while seemingly withdrawing from two, and passed the $1 million mark in a number of these contests. The GOP, by contrast, appear to have largely given up on playing offense and are building a firewall around a few incumbents; the NRCC’s meager resources hardly allow it to dream of a better defense.

As always, the DCCC and NRCC decision to invest will not make a candidate, though a decision to pull out can certainly break an underfunded challenger or a swamped incumbent. But beyond illustrating the two parties’ financial disparities, a detailed look at where the two parties are spending money lays out the electoral map and tells us which seats people who are paid to track House races full-time (and who have inside information and polling we do not have access to) think will be competitive, or not.

With that said, let’s use our now familiar classification to break down the latest House expenditures:

  • Republican investments

The GOP is in such a difficult financial situation that its mere decision to spend money on a race says a lot about how they view (and how their private polling tells them to view) a race. If the GOP is spending money on a race that is supposed to be competitive, it means they think that this particular seat is more likely to be saved than others; if they spend money on a race that was not yet viewed as that competitive, it means we probably don’t have enough information and that district is indeed highly vulnerable.

In the latter category is FL-21, where the NRCC just spent more than $500,000. This district is in Miami’s media market, so advertising there is difficult. The DCCC has not spent any money on the district for now, however, so the GOP might be successful in building a firewall here. (More on the GOP’s FL-21 efforts below.) Also in the latter category is MO-06, where incumbent Sam Graves is not currently considered to be in as much trouble as other Republicans - but the NRCC is evidently worried about his prospects and intent on keeping him, as they spent more than $100,000 in one their only six-figure investments to date.

In the former category is NM-01, the open seat that I am currently rating lean take-over. The NRCC is not spending money here, but Freedom’s Watch and the Republican Campaign Committee of New Mexico are each spending more than $200,000. (Democrats are spending heavily in both NM-01 and MO-06.) The NRCC also threw in modest amounts in LA-06, PA-03 and WI-08. (Update: It looks like the RNCC is looking to spend a lot of money in NH-01 - as much as $400,000, confirming its strategy of putting a lot of money in a handful of races.)

  • New DCCC investments

Democrats are now spending for the first time in four districts, two of which are obvious choices (CO-04 and NY-29) and two of which are true shockers (IN-03 and NE-02). While it might be surprising that the DCCC has not opened its wallet to hit Musgrave yet, the congresswoman has been hit by more than half-a-million worth of advertisement by the Defenders of Wildlife PAC, and that might have convinced the DCCC that its involvement was not (yet) needed. But now that the DCCC is moving in, it is clearly determined to make a splash: its first buy is an impressive $345,000.

As for IN-03 and NE-02, they demonstrate the Democrats’ determination to expand the map: neither of these seats was supposed to be even close to competitive, and I confess IN-03 isn’t even on my House ratings for now. That will be corrected soon, as the DCCC’s decision to invest a serious amount of money (it has already bought more than $150,000 and has committed about half-a-million) means that the district is indeed competitive. Democrats aren’t bluffing in NE-02 either, as they have brought more than $130,000 worth of ads.

  • Districts where the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million

This is not a guarantee that the Democratic candidate will, but it certainly means that the DCCC has put a high priority in winning these races: AK-AL, AZ-01, AZ-03 (!), AZ-05, MN-03, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-07, OH-15, OH-16. In other districts, the total passes $1 million when the DCCC’s investment is added to that of NARPAC (National Association of Realtors). In PA-11, for instance, that total reaches $1.8 million; if Rep. Kanjorski loses reelection, it will just how incredibly vulnerable he had become.

  • Districts the DCCC is playing defense

The DCCC continued to invest in AL-05 (now almost half-a-million total), CA-11, AZ-05 (nearly $250,000 this week, bringing the total to $1.2 million), LA-06, MS-01, NH-01 (the total now reaches $1.2 million), PA-10, TX-23 and WI-08. More surprising is the DCCC’s decision to dump huge resources in IN-09 (almost $300,000 this week), a district that looks increasingly safe for Baron Hill. However, the DCCC looks to have stopped advertising in FL-16 (Mahoney’s district…) and AZ-08, where Rep. Giffords looks relatively secure. Both districts could be moved accordingly in my upcoming rating changes.

  • Districts that were not so long ago considered long shots

I already mentioned IN-03 and NE-02, but those are just the tip of the iceberg as the DCCC continues to pour in money in races that were not considered that competitive as of this summer! New spending in AL-02 raises the total to more than half-a-million, an impressive sum for this relatively cheap media market. The DCCC’s spending totals in AZ-03 are truly staggering, as this is a district no one thought of as that competitive until ten days ago - and the DCCC just dumped in about $369,000. In MD-01, a large new buy brings the Democratic total to almost $900,000. (The Club for Growth is helping the Republican here with more than $200,000). Other noteworthy buys in this category are KY-02, MO-09, NM-02, PA-03, VA-02. In all these districts, the DCCC is not bluffing and is putting serious money behind its hopes of riding a blue tsunami.

  • Districts Democrats were expecting to pick-up more easily

Most of the DCCC’s biggest overall expenditures belong in this category, in what is at the same time good news for Democrats (it allows them to solidify their prospects) but also disappointing ones (since they would have liked to spend some of money elsewhere). Perhaps the most surprising development is the DCCC’s decision to invest nearly $350,000 in AZ-01 (bringing the total to $1.3 million), a race Democrats are expected to win relatively easily. The DCCC also just spent more than $200,000 in NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16 (bringing the total in each to more than $1 million), three open seats that Democrats are one point were hoping to have an easier time with. Other districts in this category are IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-07 and VA-11.

  • Districts that are and were expected to be competitive

This category contains the least surprising ad buys since the races were expected to be competitive since the beginning. Particularly noteworthy buys include the DCCC’s buy of about $300,000 in NC-08 (total of more than $1.3 million), more than $200,000 in MI-07, NV-03, NY-26, OH-01 and WA-08. Combined with AFSCME’s spending, the Democratic buys in MI-07 have an impressive size. The DCCC also spent in CT-04, FL-26, IL-10, MI-09, MN-03 and MO-06.

—

While it would be too long to take a detailed look at the committees’ new ads, it is worth taking a quick look at the themes these new spots are emphasizing. On the Democratic side, the day’s biggest news undoubtedly comes from the DCCC’s decision to heavily invest in IN-03 and attack longtime Representative Souder for having been changed by Washington:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eijpzkDXfIM"]

On the Republican size, the biggest news by far is the RNCC’s massive investment in FL-21. The GOP might have chosen this district because of the scandals that have long surrounded Democratic candidate Raul Martinez, a controversial figure who has enough baggage for the GOP to seize easily. The ad’s closer says it all - “We know Martinez is corrupt enough for Washington, but that doesn’t mean we should send him there:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JroM8wR1sCQ"]

Congress: Dems could sweep House rematches, Stevens trial at critical point

Published
by
Taniel
on October 7, 2008
in AK-Sen, CO-Sen, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, IL-10, IN-09, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, NY-29, PA-04 and WI-08
. 0 Comments

House: It is typically a luxury to get three or four independent House polls a week, so who knew eleven would be released in the first few hours after I published my latest House ratings?

None contradict my ratings, especially when combined with other polling data we have from the district, but Democrats do get stunningly good news in SUSA’s collection of surveys from seven districts that are hosting rematches of the 2006 contest. Democrats lead in all seven (three of which are currently held by Republican), and all margins are outside of the MoE! This could be a sign that the bottom is falling out of the GOP’s prospects, for if Republicans can’t even make these seven districts remotely competitive, they are bracing for historic losses:

  • In IL-10, Dan Seals leads Rep. Kirk 52% to 44%. Obama leads 62% to 36%, 10% better than Kerry.
  • In IN-09, Rep. Hill leads Mike Sodrel 53% to 38%. He led by 11% in an early September poll. McCain leads by 2% after Bush won the district 59% to 40%.
  • In NC-08, Larry Kissell leads Rep. Hayes 49% to 41%, with 6% for libertarian Thomas Hill. Obama leads 53% to 44%, a huge swing from Bush’s 9% victory.
  • In NH-01, Rep. Shea-Porter leads Jeb Bradley 50% to 41%. Obama leads 52% to 45% (Bush won the district by 3%).
  • In NY-29, Eric Massa leads Rep. Kuhl 51% to 44%. Obama leads 49% to 47% (Bush won the district by 14%).
  • In PA-04, Rep. Altmire leads Melissa Hart 54% to 42%. McCain leads by 8% (Bush had won the district by 9%).
  • In WI-08, Rep. Kagen leads 54% to 43%. Obama leads 52% to 45%, a huge swing from Bush’s 9% victory.

All three of the GOP-held districts (IL-10, NC-08 and NY-29) are rated toss-ups in my ratings, and they correspond to other results we have seen as of late in internal Democratic polling. A survey released yesterday had Massa leading by 5% in NY-29 and another released last week had Kissell leading by 9% in NC-08. Meanwhile, PA-04 and IN-09 are rated lean Democratic, while NH-01 and WI-08 are rated toss-ups. Other polls have found Shea-Porter and Bradley locked in a dead heat.

That said, there is reason to be skeptical of some of these results based on the results of the presidential match-up. While it is not surprising to see a 17% swing in Indiana (Obama is now competitive in the Hoosier State after Kerry lost by 21%) or even a 10% swing in NH-01, since the last three statewide polls have shown Obama leading by double-digits, an 18% swing in NC-08 and especially a 16% swing in WI-08 are larger than we ought to believe.

Meanwhile, four other House polls were released over the past 12 hours. While they are less satisfying for Democrats, they still hint at big opportunities for the DCCC. The first three polls of Florida (all held by Republicans running for re-election) were conducted by Telemundo/Carlos McDonald, and they have a big margin of error (5.7%):

  • In FL-18, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen leads Annette Taddeo 48% to 35%.
  • In FL-21, Lincoln Diaz-Balart leads Raul Martinez 48% to 43%.
  • In FL-25, Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia 43% to 41%.
  • In NM-01, a GOP-held open seat, Democrat Martin Heinrich leads Darren White 43% to 41% in a poll by the Albuquerque Journal.

FL-21 and FL-25 are both rated toss-ups, and both the Diaz-Balart brothers lead within the margin of error and are under 50% - confirming their vulnerability but suggesting also that they have not fallen behind as some of their colleagues. NM-01 is one of the hottest races around, and Democrats were hoping to put it away months ago. Darren White has proved to be a strong contender for Republicans, but can he overcome the year’s Democratic lean in a Democratic district? Obama is expected to do well in this district, and he could carry Heinrich with him.

Senate: The Ted Stevens trial reached a critical point yesterday when the prosecution played a tape recording of a phone conversation between Ted Stevens and chief prosecution witness Bill Allen, one of Stevens’ best friend who agreed to cooperate with investigators and let them record his conversation with the Senator. I am not following the details of the trial, and would be unable to say how convincing the Department of Justice’s evidence has been (and there is little doubt that the prosecution has not respected the defense’s rights), but this tape is certainly a key element of the case, as Stevens acknowledges his awareness that he could go to jail for his dealings with Allen.

Meanwhile, in Colorado, Mark Udall attempts humor in his latest ad rebutting Republican attacks. The ad begins with the Democrat telling viewers to be scared and run because “it’s Mark Udall” - and given some of the NRSC’s recent ads zooming in frightening shots of Udall, his imitation isn’t that far off. He proceeds to explain that he is kidding and urges voters to know better:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ele7eUbq8oA"]

Republicans have not managed to hurt Udall enough that he feels compelled to answer specific charges being levelled at him (mostly, that he is a “Boulder liberal” with a leftist record), but it is a telling sign that he is now on the defensive. The Colorado Senate race has attracted a large number of independent groups, and the airwaves have become a hard-hitting free-for-all. But the polls have barely moved for over a year now: Udall is in a good position to win the race, and he hasn’t trailed in a single poll for months - but he hasn’t put it away either, and he has to be careful at not letting his negative ratings go up.

Poll watch: McCain ahead in VA, trails in NC; the Udalls, McConnell lead; Perdue, Hayes in trouble

Published
by
Taniel
on October 2, 2008
in CO-Pres, CO-Sen, GA-Pres, IA-Pres, ID-01, IN-Gov, IN-Pres, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, MI-Pres, MT-Pres, NC-08, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NE-Pres, NE-Sen, NM-Pres, NM-Sen, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, TX-10 and VA-Pres
. 3 Comments

The McCain campaign is predictably trying to spin its way out of the difficult position the Michigan pull out put it in, and it is worth examining their arguments for a moment. The first argument is that McCain’s Michigan investment was only meant to force Obama to spend money. CNN quotes a McCain aide talking about how there was “always a shred of hope” they would be able to win Michigan. Let us say it again: Michigan was at the very top of McCain’s priorities, and at the very top of Obama’s vulnerabilities. Michigan was not a “shred of hope” but a crucial battleground state in which McCain polled very strongly through the spring and summer.

Their second argument is Obama who is on the defensive: “If we win FL, MO, NC, VA, IN and OH — all states Republicans have won for decades — that puts us at 260 electoral votes.” I am unsure how this is meant to show that McCain is still in the game. Most polls released over the past 2 weeks show Obama is running at worst even in each of these states. McCain has not had a lead outside of the MoE in any of these six states for at least 10 days, and in some cases since mid-September, and even if he sweeps each of them he will still not be at 270 electoral votes?

That said, after the meltdown McCain endured in yesterday’s polling, he is showing signs of life in some of today’s polls that should reassure the GOP that the election is certainly not lost. And none of this is to deny that McCain remains within striking distance or that Obama has not been able to gain a consistent edge in red states other than Iowa and New Mexico - only that the past 10 days have been very rough on McCain.

A Mason Dixon poll finds McCain clinging to a lead in Virginia and remaining within the margin of error in Colorado, a state polls released last week suggested was quickly slipping away for the Republican. But today’s polls also show Obama confirming that he has a decisive edge in Michigan, Iowa and New Mexico, posting a comfortable lead in Ohio and coming only 1% behind McCain in Indiana. Perhaps most importantly, Obama leads in yet another North Carolina survey, confirming that PPP and Rasmussen’s surveys taken last week cannot be dismissed and that the state has indeed shifted in the Democrat’s direction.

On to the full roundup of today’s polls:

  • The tracking polls continue to favor Obama, who moves to his biggest lead ever in Rasmussen (51% to 44%). He is ahead 48% to 43% in Gallup, 47% to 42% in Diego Hotline and 51% to 40% in Research 2000.
  • Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. Last week’s Rasmussen poll from North Carolina was the first in which Obama had the lead; he has expanded it by 1% since then.
  • McCain leads 48% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll of Virginia. The candidates are one point apart in the crucial Hamptons Road region, while Obama leads by 20% in Northern Virginia.
  • Obama leads 52% to 44% in a SUSA poll of New Mexico.
  • Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of New Mexico. He trailed by 2% last month.
  • Obama leads 51% to 41% in a PPP poll of Michigan. He led by 1% in a poll taken just after the GOP convention. Palin’s favorability has fallen since then.
  • Obama leads 49% to 43% in a Democracy Corps (a Dem firm) poll of Ohio.
  • McCain leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Montana. That is an improvement for Obama over the previous Rasmussen survey, but he remains far from his summer strength in the state (he led McCain in a July poll).
  • Obama leads 44% to 43% in a poll of Colorado released by little-known pollster Ciruli Associates.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot poll:

  • Pat McCrory pulls ahead in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, 50% to 46%. He trailed by 6% in August.
  • Mitch McConnell leads 51% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Kentucky’s Senate race. That’s an improvement for Lunsford over the previous Rasmussen survey, but a relief for McConnell given that SUSA and Mason Dixon found much tighter races recently.
  • Mitch Daniels only leads 47% to 46% against Jill Long Thompson in a Research 2000 poll of Indiana’s gubernatorial race.
  • Tom Udall leads 58% to 39% in a SUSA poll of New Mexico’s Senate race. In a Rasmussen poll, Udall leads 54% to 39%. In both polls, Udall widens the gap.
  • Mark Udall leads 47% to 40% in a poll of Colorado’s Senate race released by little-known pollster Ciruli Associates.
  • In NC-08, a DCCC poll finds Larry Kissell with a large 54% to 43% lead against Rep. Hayes. The poll also finds Obama leading by 12% in a district Bush carried by 9%, too large a swing to have full confidence in the survey.
  • The Hayes campaign quickly released a recent internal poll of their own. It shows the Republicans leading Kissell 46% to 43%. In an August poll, Hayes led by 10%, and these are not favorable numbers for an incumbent either.
  • In AL-03, Rep. Rogers leads Democrat Segall 45% to 36% in an independent poll taken by Capital Survey Research Center. In an August poll, Rogers led 55% to 32%, so this is quite a bump for the challenger.
  • In ID-01, an internal poll for the Minnick campaign finds him leading Rep. Sali 43% to 38%. The question here is whether a Democrat can go from the high 40s in a heavily Republican district.
  • In TX-10, an internal poll for the Doherty campaign finds GOP Rep. McCaul leading 43% to 38%, putting him in a very vulnerable position.
  • Johanns leads 52% to 38% in a Rasmussen poll of Nebraska’s Senate race.

House: A lot of internal polls to go through today - and as always take them with a grain of salt. That said, the same situation applies in NC-08 that we saw in NV-03 a few days ago. When an incumbent feels compelled to release a poll taken by his own campaign that shows him leading by only 3% with trend lines helping his opponent, there is no doubt that he is highly vulnerable. The DCCC has already spent more than half-a-million dollars in this district, and put together the two internal polls leave no doubt that the race is at best a toss-up and that Kissell might gain an advantage by relying on Obama’s organizational strength.

As for ID-01, TX-10 and AL-03, there are all heavily Republican districts, and while it is possible that Democrats have some success in a few such districts, the challenge for Democrats is to get undecided voters to break their way. In ID-01, Sali is disrespected enough by his party’s establishment that Democrats can take advantage of local conditions.

Governor: After PPP’s polling release a few days ago, this is the second poll in a row to find McCrory and Obama gaining in the same sample, a sure sign that Beverly Perdue is actually in trouble. The Lieutenant Governor was seen as a slight favorite to win this open seat, but McCrory’s strategy of hitting her on reform-related issues appears to be working. North Carolina has become truly fascinating to follow, as different races are going in opposite directions and ticket-splitting will be a crucial factor here.

Senate: Republicans will be relieved that McConnell’s numbers have not collapsed in yet another poll. Sure, Lunsford is within single-digits but McConnell remains above 50% and the numbers are not as terrible as those in SUSA, Mason Dixon and the unreleased private poll Stuart Rothenberg evoked. That said, the race is definitely on our radar screen now, and it will be interesting to see whether the DSCC moves in. Colorado and New Mexico’s races have been static for month: Tom Udall put it away a while ago in New Mexico, while most polls find Mark Udall ahead in Colorado, but not by enough for Democrats to feel confident.

Congress: Democrats continue aggressive expenditures, bring up Social Security

Published
by
Taniel
on September 25, 2008
in IL-10, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NY-13, NY-26, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, OR-Sen and PA-03
. 0 Comments

Last time we checked in the complete chaos of NY-13 and the field of ruins that Staten Island’s Republican Party has become, retiring Rep. Vito Fossella was plotting his comeback - though I noted that for him to work his way on the ballot would require either the Republican Party’s nominee Robert Straniere or the Conservative Party’s nominee to die, move out of New York State or offered nominations for judgeship.

I naively assumed that none of those requirements could be met, but that just goes to show that I have yet to understand that anything can happen in NY-13. First, the Conservative Party’s nominee was offered a judgeship nomination, accepted but he was replaced without Fossella giving any public signs that he was looking for the Conservative Party’s slot on the ballot. The reason to that soon became apparent as Manhattan’s Republican Party unexpectedly decided to offer Straniere a judicial nomination!

While there is no confirmation of this and Fossella has not admitted that he was looking to run for re-election, many Republicans were clearly hoping that this would be a way to get him on the ballot. But Straniere, who has a dismal relationship with much of the district’s GOP establishment, fired back that he has no interest in judgeship, had not even been informed that such a nomination was coming and he formally rejected it yesterday.

Six weeks from Election Day, the field thus appears set, and it’s improbable Fossella can now find a way to enter the race. And as the GOP candidate lacks the support of many in his own party, NY-13 remains this year’s most likely Democratic pick-up.

Meanwhile, the DCCC continues its aggressive expenditures. After investing in 15 districts on Tuesady, the DCCC poured in $1.6 million more yesterday - all of this while the NRCC is still unable to budget any ads in any House districts anywhere in the country. Just like yesterday, let’s break down the DCCC’s latest spending (the full list is available here):

  • Defense: The DCCC is investing for the first time in a pair of very vulnerable districts, LA-06 and WI-08. Also, the DCCC puts in more money behind ads in PA-10 (this round of expenditure is an impressive $130,000) and NH-01 (where the DCCC’s new total is a high $600,000).
  • Open seats Dems were hoping to have already secured by now: The DCCC continues to pour in huge amounts of money in districts that six months ago looked like fairly easy pick-ups but that have since considerably tightened. Those include NJ-07, NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16; the DCCC just invested between $100,000 and $150,000 in all four, bringing its total in each to more than half-a-million in each (except NM-01, where it’s getting close). Now, the DCCC has also taken its first and smaller buy in NJ-03 - a district that was also once leaning Democratic but where the DCCC is clearly no longer feeling confident.
  • Seats that are (and were expected to be) toss-ups: One of the day’s biggest buy is the DCCC’s first buy (of nearly $150,000) in NV-03, where Rep. Porter is highly vulnerable. The DCCC also adds to prior spending in IL-10, NY-26, NC-08 and OH-01 (the two latter in the six figures). It is particularly interesting to see the DCCC willing to spend nearly half-a-million at this point against Rep. Hayes in North Carolina, as the committee was criticized for not moving in at all in 2006, when Hayes’ challenger fell by about 300 votes.
  • Districts Democrats were not expected to contest: After KY-02 and MD-01 yesterday, the DCCC makes its first move in NM-02, a conservative open seat few people would have predicted would be competitive a year ago. The DCCC also continues to invest in PA-03 (nearly $100,000), confirming that Rep. English has become one of the Democrats’ top targets.

It is interesting to see the DCCC’s investment decisions as they tell us where the House battle is being waged. It is one thing for party strategists to spin candidate X’s potential and incumbent Y’s vulnerability, but putting money behind those claims goes much beyond spin and demonstrates a sincere belief that those seats are real opportunities or are truly threatened. That is why it is so fascinating to see that the DCCC is willing to move in places like NM-02, KY-02 and MD-01 and to get confirmation that it has not at all closed the deal in the four Ohio and New Jersey open seats - districts that seemed all but lost for Republicans in the spring.

Meanwhile, what strategies Democrats employ in their ads is also an interesting measure of what themes will dominate the final stretch - and what we have seen over the past few days is the DCCC and DSCC seizing on the financial crisis to resurrect the Social Security theme. We had not heard about this much all year, but Wall Street’s instability allows Democrats to pounce on Republican candidate for their past support for Bush’s privatization plan. (This also goes to show that economic concerns dominating the news at this crucial time isn’t just a boost to Obama’s chances but also to Democratic prospects down-the-ballot.) For instance, the DCCC’s LA-06 ad uses this theme to discredit Bill Cassidy:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpIXnqDD0CQ"]

And the DSCC is up with two new attack ads against Gordon Smith on this subject. Here is the first, and here is the second:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAyPU8Jsti4"]

Congress: New round of DCCC expenditures, Lunsford invokes McCain

Published
by
Taniel
on September 17, 2008
in AK-Sen, AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-05, CT-04, IL-10, IL-11, KY-Sen, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-07, NM-01, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16 and PA-03
. 8 Comments

Two days ago, I detailed some of the DCCC’s recent expenditures to point out that Democrats were already investing heavily in House races while the NRCC was remaining silent. Such discrepancies are especially important in the House battle: While Barack Obama and John McCain saturate the airwaves with millions worth of ads ads and voters also hear about them in nightly news and in newspapers, House races don’t get anywhere near the same level of exposure - making any investment that much more valuable.

Last night, the gap continued to widen as the DCCC dumped $1.75 millions worth of advertisement in 15 districts (via Swing State Project), 12 of which are currently held by Republicans. Some of these buys are quite significant. A rundown:

  • Defense: $82,615 in AL-05, $101,893 in AZ-05 (total: $295,997), $493,422 in NH-01
  • Toss-ups: $70,800 in CT-04, $41,066 in IL-10, $114,848 in NC-08, $118,428 in OH-01
  • Districts Dems at some point hoped to win easily: $82,615 in AZ-01, $40,953 in IL-11 (total: $525,936), $116,541 in NJ-07, $144,011 in NM-01 (total: $291,726), $111,899 in OH-15 (total: $385,491), $152,748 in OH-16 (total: $424,936)
  • Less obvious: $32,645 in AL-02, $88,552 in PA-03

The NRCC has yet to spend anything in most of these districts, and if it has it’s been to conduct a poll (like in PA-03) rather than air ads. On the other hand, this is not the DCCC’s first investment in many of these districts, but it is in others. This represents, for instance, the DCCC’s first media buy in OH-01, CT-4, and IL-10, but also in Democratic-held NH-01.

The GOP primary was held recently and former Rep. Bradley won his party’s nomination; he doesn’t have that much money left yet and the feelings of much the Republican base are still bruised. The DCCC is trying to exploit this opening with a truly big ad buy. Among other interesting buys is the DCCC’s decision to pursue PA-03, a district that would not have been on most people’s minds a few weeks ago. Also, keep in mind that the cost of running ads varies widely depending on the media market, so $80,000 in Alabama actually buys you a lot of air time.

Most of these ads buys will be negative spots attacking Republican candidates - and most of them will probably contain grainy images of President Bush. As we have discussed before, the impact of this on the presidential race will be very interesting (though hard to track). Will it amplify Obama’s message against McCain and make sure that voters are thinking about Bush when casting their ballots? Or will it just make that argument banal when Obama uses it? Here is, for instance, the DCCC’s new spot against Bradley in NH-01. Since there is the most money behind this ad, it seems logical to choose this one to link to in this post:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI_gbrirgtk"]

Meanwhile, a new ad by Bruce Lunsford in the Kentucky Senate race is using an interesting strategy: Using footage of McCain’s convention speech to hit Mitch McConnell’s for fitting the description of the “me-first country-second” insider politicians McCain is crusading against. The ad points out that McConnell voted for the “infamous” Bridge to Nowhere twice:

This is an obvious echo to Gordon Smith’s ads in Oregon’s Senate race in which he tied himself to Barack Obama, the difference being that Smith was touting his own ties to someone from the opposite party while this one uses McCain (who has had famous clashes in McConnell) to hit a member of the same party. It’s also a more obvious move for Lunsford than it was for Smith, given that Oregon is much more competitive at the presidential level than Kentucky is. Now, it will be interesting to see (1) whether McCain issues a release defending McConnell (as Obama did in Oregon) and (2) whether other Democrats running in red states use a similar strategy.

Finally, the DSCC’s new ad in Alaska’s Senate race is worth noting, as it hits Stevens on ethics without focusing on his indictment, thus echoing an ad put out by an independent group last week (with a significant $500,000 buy). Stevens still looks very competitive despite the fact that he was indicted in mid-July and he is running ads touting his clout in Washington to make the point that, whatever his ethical missteps, he brings money to Alaska and helps the state’s residents. Democrats know that Stevens’ indictement will be in the news in the next few weeks: his trial is set to start in a few days. What they need to fight against is Stevens’ argument that he still does good for Alaska, and that’s what this ad is arguing. “It’s not about Alaska anymore,” says the announcer:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwlE8y-t8Jk"]

House: Outgoing GOP incumbent backs Democrat in MD-01, Love leads big in AL-02

Published
by
Taniel
on September 2, 2008
in AL-02, FL-21, IL-18, MD-01, MN-03 and NC-08
. 5 Comments

The Palin pick has distracted me from down-the-ballot races since Thursday morning, and it is time to correct that - starting with the latest news from MD-01, a staunchly Republican district that Bush carried with 62% of the vote in 2004. [Update: Jaxx provides a useful and detailed overview of the district and how it has been gerrymandered in the comments section.] If Democrats will ever have an opening, it’s this year.

Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest was defeated in the February 13th GOP primary by state Senator Andy Harris in what was an ideological battle between the moderate Gilchrest and his conservative challenger. Now, Gilchrest is endorsing Democrat Frank Kratovil, in a move that is likely to confirm to Republicans that they should have thrown Gilchrest out. Gilchrest’s move is sure to generate headlines and be touted by Democrats at a time independents are looking for encouragement to bolt from the Republican Party.

Harris remains heavily favored, but Democrats were already eying this seat before Gilchrest’s decision.  Kratovil was added to their Red-to-blue program, suggesting that the DCCC is closely monitoring the race and will invest in the district if there are signs that it can pull off an upset. However, MD-01 was not included in the long list of districts in which the DCCC reserved air time for the fall. The latest poll and only poll of the race is an internal poll released by the Harris campaign that showed him ahead 44% to 28% - a very comfortable margin but one that does give an opening to the Democrat.

Meanwhile, and while we have not gotten a single presidential state poll since Wednesday, we did get 4 House surveys since my latest ratings (don’t count on this ever happening again):

  • The biggest news is no doubt SUSA’s survey from AL-02. It shows Republican Jay Love leading Democratic candidate Bobby Bright 56% to 39%. McCain leads Obama 69% to 26% in the district, a bigger margin than Bush prevailed by (67% to 33%).

This is somewhat of a surprise as three polls had been released of the race, all pointing in a different direction. An independent poll and an internal poll for Bright had him leading by 10% while an internal poll for Love had him ahead by 2%. One possible question mark is the share of the black vote, which SUSA pegs at 16% even though African-Americans make up 30% of the district. I have not been able to find out estimates of the share of the black vote in past elections, nor what the other AL-02 surveys showed. The fact that Obama is running weaker than Kerry’s already dismal showing suggests that the black vote might have been under-sampled indeed, though I trust SUSA more than the other polling outlets.

If anything, this is a reminder of how huge an upset Bright’s victory would be in a district that is overwhelmingly Republican and where white voters back McCain with 83% of the vote. Despite the positive signs pointing at Bright’s direction, this district will never allow a Democratic blow-out. In other polls:

  • In MN-03, a SUSA poll of yet another open seat finds a toss-up, with Republican Erik Paulsen getting 44% to Ashwin Media’s 41%. In what is one of the ultimate swing districts, Obama leads McCain by 2% - a 5% improvement over Kerry’s showing.
  • In NC-08, PPP finds Robin Hayes’s lead over repeat challenger Larry Kissell shrinking over the past month. He is now ahead 44% to 39% (7% last month). In a district Bush won by 9% in 2004, Obama and McCain are tied and Hagan leads Dole by 4% - suggesting that statewide Democrats clearly have a shot at victory!
  • In FL-21, an internal poll by the Diaz-Balart campaign finds him leading Raul Martinez 48% to 36%. This is a response to last week’s SUSA poll that had the Democratic challenger up 50% to 48%.
  • In IL-18, an internal poll for the campaign of 27-year old Republican Aaron Schock finds him ahead 56% to 27% against Democratic nominee Colleen Callahan. This is an open seat Democrats had some hopes of winning.

All these districts are on my latest House ratings, and unless the DCCC or the Callahan campaign release a poll countering Schock’s internal survey the GOP can at least breath a bit easier there. This is a heavily Republican district (Bush won with 58% of the vote), but Democrats were hoping that Obama’s presence at the head of the ticket and the Democratic bent could help them pick up a seat.

The FL-21 numbers, however, should be taken with more skepticism as we know of an independent poll that contradicts them. But note that Diaz-Balart’s level of support is the same in the two surveys, but that the number of undecideds is widely different. As always with internal polls, wonder why this is the model that was used - did pushing undecideds result in Democratic gains?

As for NC-08 and MN-03, there are both toss-ups, as most things seem to be in North Carolina. As far as I can think of, voters in NC-08 are going to be the only voters in the country to cast ballots for four truly competitive races - for president, Senate, for the governor and for the House.

Friday polls: Stevens, Young lead primaries but trail in general; Collins expands lead

Published
by
Taniel
on August 15, 2008
in AK-AL, AK-Sen, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, NC-08, NC-Gov, NC-Pres and Nat-Poll
. 1 Comment

Yesterday, McCain inched ahead in Colorado for only the second time ever and posted big gains in Minnesota for the second straight survey (and it’s not like polls taken earlier this week). Today, Democrats can celebrate the latest numbers from the Alaska congressional races but Republicans have reason to be happy at some sign of minor movement in NC’s presidential race and bigger momentum for Maine’s Susan Collins:

  • Rasmussen’s latest poll from North Carolina (polling history) finds McCain slightly expanding his lead. He leads 46% to 42%, 50% to 44% with leaners (compared to 3% last month). As always, the true source of worry for Obama is his unfavorability rating - 48%, compared to 40% for McCain.
  • In Maine, Obama leads 49% to 36%, 53% to 39% with leaners. Rasmussen does not provide a breakdown by district, but 13% should guarantee that Obama wins both districts (and all electoral votes). Obama’s favorability rating is strong here, 61% compared to 53% for McCain.
  • In the Economist’s national poll, a 3% race is now a 1% race, with Obama ahead 41% to 40% - well within the margin of error.
  • And while I don’t report on tracking polls most days, do note that a 6% lead for Obama two days ago is now back to a tie, confirming that the race is hovering around an average of 3% and has been stuck there for weeks.

The movement in the Rasmussen poll is within the margin of error, making it difficult to draw any big conclusions but - as I have said often - it is important to remember that Barack Obama has been on air for two months now while McCain has not been at all, but that does not appear to be helping the Democrat. ButnNot only is he not gaining in the head-to-head with McCain (confirming that the mid-40s are a ceiling Obama will have trouble breaking) but his favorability ratings is not improving. In fact, it has gone down by a point in the past month while McCain’s has gained - this despite the fact that North Carolina voters have been treated to Obama’s advertising campaign. And keep in mind that unless Obama gets NC poll to find a race consistently within the margin of error, it is unlikely McCain will feel forced to invest in the state.

The upside for Obama is that the electorate is becoming more polarized as the election is getting closer but that his numbers are not falling, so he is at least succeeding in maintaining the positive impression many voters have of him - and that was certainly not a given.

On to the down-the-ballot polls:

  • In the Alaska Senate race, Ivan Moore Research shows Ted Stevens holding firm in the primary, leading with 63% against 20% for Cuddy and 7% for Vic Vickers.
  • In the general election, however, Stevens trails 56% to 39% (a 4% improvement for him, but still a wide margin).
  • In AK-AL, that same Ivan Moore poll shows Don Young surviving the primary 46% to 40% with 7% for LeDoux. That’s a 2% improvement for Parnell over the past 3 weeks.
  • In the general election, Ethan Berkowitz leads Young 51% to 41% but narrowly trails against Parnell, 46% to 42%.
  • In Maine’s Senate race, Senator Susan Collins expands her lead against Tom Allen in Rasmussen’s poll. After being ahead 49% to 42% in two straight months, she leads 53% to 38% - 55% to 40% with leaners. Collins has a great favorability rating: 65% versus 29% unfavorable.
  • In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, Rasmussen finds Beverly Perdue opening a lead, 49% to 43% (51% to 45% with leaners). She led by 1% in June.
  • In NC-08, an internal poll for the Hayes campaign finds the Republican incumbent leading 50% to 40% against Larry Kissell, a Democrat who lost by a few hundred votes in 2006. In this district that Bush won by 9% in 2004, McCain leads 47% to 42% - progress for Obama, but not enough.

I wrote a post centered on the Alaska primaries last night, so I will not repeat my analysis then as this poll confirms what we already know: Young is in a heated primary whose result could very well determine whether Democrats pick up the seat in November, though Berkowitz should be reassured to see that he would still have a shot against Parnell. As for the Senate race, it is fascinating that Stevens remains miles ahead of his GOP competitors despite some heavy spending.

Parnell has ruled out running for the Senate seat, but if Republicans can convince Stevens to step down and if Parnell loses the House primary (two huge ifs, of course), switching Stevens for Parnell could make the most sense! But even a Begich-Parnell race would be a toss-up at best for Republicans: if the Lieutenant Governor is managing only a 4% lead over Berkowitz, he will start at an even worse position against the Anchorage Mayor.

As for Maine’s Senate race, the Rasmussen polls from June and July were the only ones to find Susan Collins’s lead under 50%. Other polls of the race have found her at a stronger position, and now the only ray of hope for Maine Democrats is gone - with even Rasmussen showing Collins with a solid lead and above 50%. Note that both candidates have started their ad campaigns recently - with Allen launching a 1 minute biographical spot and Collins shorter ads. The DSCC has reserved $5 million worth of ad time in the fall, but how close does Allen have to be for the DSCC to follow through?

Congressional ad watch: Smith and Landrieu attack opponents, candidates introduce themselves

Published
by
Taniel
on August 5, 2008
in Ads, ID-Sen, LA-Sen, ME-Sen, NC-08, OR-Sen, SD-Sen and WA-08
. 0 Comments

To an unusual degree, posts today have focused on new TV spots - from Obama, Franken and McCain - so let’s continue in that vein with this must-see response to McCain by Paris Hilton (yes, it’s real). “He’s the oldest celebrity in the world… but is he ready to lead?” asks the spot in an obvious parody of McCain’s “celeb” ad. Hilton goes on to call McCain the “very old” “wrinkly white-haired dude” and she proposes her unexpectedly articulate energy policy!

Meanwhile, and more seriously: In Oregon, the past few ads released by Gordon Smith have touted the Senator’s bipartisan credentials to appeal to independents, though Smith also released attack ads in July accusing Merkley of wanting to raise taxes. The DSCC replied with an ad hitting Smith over energy issues after an earlier ad tied the incumbent to President Bush. Now, Smith is out with a negative ad that accuses Merkley of wasting taxpayer money redecorating the offices in the legislature, even attaching price tags to different furniture items:

Merkley has little money to go on air (this is one race in which cash-on-hand disparity matters) and Smith is taking the opportunity to define the still-unknown Democrat as a tax-and-spend liberal. In July, he released ads arguing that Merkley likes taxes… and here is the complementary charge that he likes to spend. This ad looks like a caricature, and that’s because the “tax-and-spend liberal” figure has become such a staple of GOP ads. They seem (and are) silly, but viewers are used enough to the tax-and-spend attack that the overarching narrative becomes part of the political conversation. How well they succeed will depend on whether Merkley has the resources to respond before Smith succeeds in defining him. The DSCC is committed to the race, but can only do so much work.

In Louisiana, meanwhile, both candidates released ads this week. On the one side, Republican John Kennedy, trying to run as a reformer. His new and somewhat humorous ad (you can watch it here) says he will get Congress to spend less because… he is personally cheap. The ad shows him saving pennies and bringing his brown bag lunch to the office: “One leader is so tight, he squeaks,” says the ad, which also reviews Kennedy’s record. Senator Mary Landrieu has another idea on how to introduce Kennedy to voters: attack him for his flip-flops, party switch and for being a… liberal! Landrieu notes that Kennedy ran for AG as a Democrat, endorsed Kerry in 2004 and that Republicans called him a liberal during his Senate campaign:

Landrieu’s goal to (1) undermine any honest reformer approach Kennedy might try to portray and (2) take away any enthusiasm conservatives might have for Kennedy. Landrieu is the only truly endangered incumbent Democrat this year, and her main obstacle is the red-lean of the state she represents. If she convinces voters that her opponent isn’t a Republican, however, it might offset the unfavorable terrain she must fight on.

In other Senate advertising, two incumbents are airing positive ads. In Maine, Susan Collins ad on energy (you can watch it here) confirms that all ads on this topic could be aired by just about everyone, from either party, and that most candidates endorse the same lofty goals. This is what makes the energy issue appealing to so many candidates: it allows them to look centrist and pragmatist - two adjectives Collins needs as a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state.

Then, there is South Dakota: A year ago, we weren’t even sure if Tim Johnson would run for re-election. Now, he is facing minor opposition in what is looking like an easy re-election race. But Johnson’s ads are still interesting because they feature a candidate still struggling with health issues. In fact, Johnson’s opening ad - released last week (you can watch it here) - was entirely devoted to his health, with the Senator admitting that he was still working on his speech. Yesterday, he unveiled the second part of his advertising campaign (you can watch it here) by highlighting his accomplishments since he “came back to the Senate.” The ad claims Johnson has not missed a single vote.

Moving on, we have two ads with a very similar message by two Democrats running in red areas. In Idaho, Larry LaRocco’s ad (you can watch it here) reviews the problems the country is facing - jobs, inflation - and calls for “change.” In NC-08, repeat candidate Larry Kissell airs his first ad (view it here) against Rep. Hayes. “We cannot afford two more years of this,” argues the Democrat, speaking directly to the camera and citing rising oil prices and lost jobs. He calls for “a new voice.” The distrust in the GOP is the main reason Democrats have a chance in states and districts like these, making these calls for generic “change” the logical type of ad they should run.

In WA-08, finally, Darcy Burner is one of the best-funded House challengers: she raised more in the second quarter and she has more cash-on-hand than her opponent, GOP incumbent Rep. Reichert. That allowed her to release a 60-second biographical ad (watch it here) highlighting, among other things, her life story, her brother serving in Iraq, her preparing a plan to get the US out of Iraq and her work on the Chinese toy issue. The 2006 race took some nasty terms, and Burner was attacked by her opponent for her inexperience. That she can afford a 60-second ad (with a much larger scope) is a good way for her to reintroduce herself to voters and start inoculating herself against those same attacks by highlighting substantive policy work she has done.

Tuesday polls: Zogby surveys all 50 states, Senate GOP strong in KS and ME

Published
by
Taniel
on July 8, 2008
in KS-Sen, ME-Sen, NC-08 and RI-Sen
. 0 Comments

Zogby’s latest installment of his online polls is now up with a state-by-state breakdown to complement the pollster’s latest national poll that found Obama leading by 6%. If SUSA, Quinnipiac, Gallup or Rasmussen were to release polls from all 50 states, it would be a tremendous thrill for political junkies. And I would reserve the same excitement for Zogby if the polls were conducted via phone.

But the methodology of these onlines polls remains very suspicious. Zogby conducted an online survey of more than 46,000 likely voters (which are, if I understand correctly, self-selected). The 2004 and 2006 editions of these polls found some wild results and wide swings though its final 2006 release was more or less on target. With that note of skepticism, here are the noteworthy numbers from Zogby’s 2008 release:

  • Obama leads McCain 273 EVs to 160 for the Republican and 105 toss-ups, though it is unclear why some states are colored purple (North Carolina where Obama has a large lead) and others aren’t (Florida, where McCain leads by 4% or Colorado and New Hampshire, where Obama is up by 2% and 3%).
  • The state-by-state picture looks great for Obama who leads 48% to 38% in Michigan, 43% to 38% in Ohio, 48% to 32% in Minnesota, 49% to 33% in Oregon, 48% to 38% in Wisconsin, 49% to 36% in New Jersey, 46% to 36% in Pennsylvania, 49% to 33% in New Mexico, 44% to 39% in Virginia and 47% to 38% in North Carolina.
  • Other major states are tied — some unexpectedly so: it’s a 42% to 40% Obama edge in Colorado, 42% to 41% for Obama in South Carolina, 40% to 37% for Obama in New Hampshire, 40% to 39% for Obama in Indiana, 42% to 39% for McCain in Texas, and 42% to 39% for Obama in Arizona… Nevada is tied at 38%.
  • McCain looks a tiny bit better in Florida (43% to 39%), Louisiana (47% to 40%), Georgia (44% to 38%). Even Oklahoma is tighter than it ought to be (5% for McCain).
  • As you can see, Obama is much stronger than he is believed to be in most states — and a bit too much to make these polls credible. And a big reason for that is the Bob Barr factor, as the libertarian candidate reaches high single-digits in many many states, drawing most votes from Republicans. He gets 9% in Arizona, 8% in Georgia in Minnesota, 7% in New Mexico, 6% in Michigan, etc… Given how active libertarians have been online all season, make of that what you will.

Obviously very strong numbers for Obama — but there are a lot of reasons to take these numbers with a lot of salt. The enthusiasm factor that could be helping Barr here is also likely to be boosting Obama… and there is very little evidence to suggest that online polls ought to be trusted.

Apart from Zogby’s polls, the day was dominated with down-the-ballot surveys. The first two polls come from second-tier yet important Senate races:

  • In Kansas, Pat Roberts released an internal poll taken last week showing him ahead of former Rep. Jim Slattery 54% to 34%.
  • The poll also finds John McCain leading Obama 49% to 36% in a state Bush won by 25% in 2004.
  • In Maine, the Pan Atlantic SMS group (I have never heard of it, but it is based in Maine) finds Senator Collins crushing Tom Allen 56% to 31%.
  • Note that we also have a Rasmussen poll from Rhose Island in which Sen. Reed gets 72% to his opponent Bob Tingle’s 20%…

Both these races could be essential to Democratic hopes of reaching 60 seats, though they are for now both considered second-to-third tier. Collins’s numbers are particularly strong given how much Democrats were excited by Allen’s candidacy, and besides a Rasmussen poll finding the race tightening there is little evidence for now that Allen will be able to make this a race.

In Kansas, meanwhile, few people expected to see numbers tighten but a few polls showing Roberts unexpectedly low put the race on the radar. Even the local press is now trumpeting the possibility of a competitive race, which should help Slattery tremendously to fundraise and get covered. While Roberts is posting a big lead in this poll, it is an internal and the incumbent is dangerously close to 50%.

Meanwhile, PPP polled NC-08, where Rep. Hayes beat Larry Kissel by about 300 votes in 2006:

  • Hayes is ahead 43% to 36%, though PPP points out that more Democrats are undecideds and Kissel only has 55% of the black vote.
  • PPP also finds McCain leading Obama 43% to 39% in a district Bush won by 9%.

An internal poll for Kissel found the Democrat slightly ahead two weeks ago and while the PPP survey has good news for Kissel (as the inucmbent is well under 50%), it is important to note that the challenger has at least some name recognition from 2006 which changes the equation a bit. But something has changed over the past 2 years: In 2006, the DCCC did not help the Democrat in what was one of Emanuel’s biggest mistakes of the cycle. This time, they are already running ads hitting Hayes.

Down-ballot: DCCC moves to expand map and to block Jack Davis, the AMA turns against Senate Republicans

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2008
in IL-06, MS-Sen, NC-08, NC-10, NH-Sen, NY-26, OH-01, OH-02, PA-06, TX-Sen, Uncategorized and VA-02
. 0 Comments

With more than $40 million in the bank, the DCCC is not ruining itself by airing radio ads in 13 Republican-held districts to tie the GOP incumbents to big oil. But the list of districts Democrats have chosen to target is instructive of the depth of their offensive:

  • Expected seats: IL-06 (Rep. Roskam), NC-08 (Rep. Hayes), OH-01 (Rep. Chabot), OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt), VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
  • Third-tier at best: NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett), PA-03 (Rep. English), PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach), PA-15 (Rep. Dent), WV-02 (Rep. Capito)
  • Even less expected: CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray), NC-10 (Rep. McHenry), VA-05 (Rep. Goode)

This is not the list of 13 races you would expect Democrats to target. The inclusion of CA-50, for instance, is surprising as no one has been talking much about that race over the past few years. The purpose of this buy, then, is obvious: the DCCC wants to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents, look at their reaction and prepare to poll their weakness in the coming weeks. The fact that it is a cheaper radio buy confirms that it does not commit Democrats to spend a lot of funds, but it reflects their determination to expand the map and put as many GOP incumbents as possible in danger. Note that however cheap this buy is, the NRCC does not have the luxury to spend money on non-essential expenses like these.

The ad uses a President Bush impersenator that pretends to be calling the office of these congressmen to thank them for their support for Big Oil. The full script is available here. Here is just the part read by the Bush impersenator, excerpted from the ad running against Patrick McHenry:

“Pattie…“W” here.

“Wanted to thank you for continuing to support the Big Oil Energy Agenda.

“‘Preciate you voting to keep giving billions in tax breaks to the big oil companies.

“Sure, gasoline is over four bucks a gallon and the oil companies are making record profits, but what’s good for Big Oil is good for America, right?

“I guess that’s why they call us the Grand OIL Party. Heh, heh, heh.

“Seriously, Patrick, I know I can always count on you.

“Gotta go. Bye now.

The fact that the ad is so directly targeted at incumbents with voting records explains why the most obvious seats that Democrats are contesting are not on this list. After all, the most vulnerable GOP-held districts are open seats. Another race in which Democrats are trying to tie the incumbent to the unpopular president is Mississippi’s Senate race — hardly a state in which you would expect Democrats to feel confident making the election national! Bush will fundraise for endangered Sen. Wicker, and Democrats are using the opportunity to tie Wicker and McCain to the GOP brand. The party’s statement read:

A high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.

Remember that in March Republicans attempted to nationalize the special election in MS-01 by tying Travis Childers to Barack Obama. Two months later, Democrats are comfortable giving the GOP a taste of their own medecine in one of the reddest states in the country.

Meanwhile, in NY-26, the DCCC is taking sides in the contested primary between Jon Powers and Jack Davis, the party’s 2006 candidate. As you might remember, Davis grabbed headlines last week when he won his Supreme Court case to ban the millionaire’s amendment in an effort to spend millions of his own money without being “discriminated against” and without any impediment to his attempts to suffocate Powers under massive amounts of his personal wealth. I am not one to advocate for the national parties to get too involved in primaries, but the DCCC thankfully decided to jump in on Powers’s behalf by adding him to their Red to Blue program before the primary. Powers will thus benefit from some of the DCCC’s funds and will be able to match Davis — almost as important as his beating the Republican.

Finally, more bad news for the GOP comes from news that the American Medical Association, a longtime Republican ally, is now turning against Republican Senators for voting against a bill to halt cuts in Medicare reimbursements. The bill failed by only one vote (after the House approved it 355-59), and a number of GOP Senators who voted against it are now being targeted by Democrats and by the AMA. Among those who are up for re-election, we find Sens. Cornyn (TX), Sununu (NH), Wicker (MS), Cochran, Enzi and Barrasso. The first three are vulnerable this fall, and the fact that the AMA has gone up with what it is calling a “significant” buy should worry these incumbent Senators. CQ notes that Mississippi’s Ronnie Musgrove has been heavily campaigning on this issue, and New Hampshire is also a small enough state that third-party ad buys can impact the election.

Wednesday polls: Strong day for Obama who leads big in PA, OH, WI and ME and within the margin of error in VA and FL

Published
by
Taniel
on June 18, 2008
in AK-Pres, FL-Pres, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, NC-08, NC-Sen, OH-Pres, PA-Pres, VA-Pres, VA-Sen and WI-Pres
. 6 Comments

Quinnipiac released its eagerly anticipated set of swing state polls, and after two weak showing by Obama in the waves of early April and mid-May, he has improved significantly over the past month by solidifying the support of registered Democrats. Though his lead in all three of these states is inferior to where Clinton stood last month, it still represents a significant shift towards the Illinois Senator:

  • In Florida, Obama is ahead 47% to 43%. He trailed by 4% in May.
  • A month ago, he trailed among independents and got 71% of the Democratic vote. In June, he leads indies by 10% and has the support of 82% of Democrats. 19% of those who voted Clinton in the primary would choose McCain, however.
  • In Ohio, Obama leads 48% to 42% — no doubt boosted by Bush’s dismal approval rating of 22%! He trailed by 4% in May.
  • He has improved his share of the registered Dem vote from 69% to 80% and trails by 3% among independents. Among Clinton voters, however, he only leads 63% to 25%.
  • In Pennsylvania, finally, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 40%. He led by 6% in May.
  • Obama gets 78% of registered Democrats compared to 71% in May. He leads by 11% among independents, though his support among Clinton voters remains tepid (66% versus 24% for McCain).

This seems to be the first Florida poll to ever find Obama ahead of McCain, too early, then, to know whether something is actually changing (this is also the first Florida poll released by any institute since Quinnipiac’s last poll a month ago!). But note the uniformity of the bounce in Obama’s favor: He has improved by 6%, 6% and 8% in these three states, suggesting about the same size bounce that we witnessed in Rasmussen and Gallup’s tracking. The margin has narrowed again in those trackings and that we will have to wait for confirmation that Obama has jumped up in those states from other surveys (PPP yesterday showed Obama up 11% in Ohio). Also, black support in favor of Obama is particularly strong and is what is helping the Democrat create some space: He gets between 90% and 95% of the African-American vote, much stronger than what Kerry got in 2004.

As Quinnipiac points out, no candidate has won the election without at least two of these three states in 48 years, so for Obama to get even two would make the road to the White House very difficult for McCain. However, Michigan now appears to be just as competitive as these 3 states and muddies the equation a bit, as picking up Michigan could help McCain offset the loss of Ohio. Meanwhile, a number of other polls were released today from other crucial states that Obama seems intent on contesting:

  • First, Zogby’s latest national poll shows the Democrat leading 47% to 42%. Other good news for Obama: he leads by 22% among independents. The bad news: He is only ahead 54% to 44% among Hispanics and 54% of respondents say he does not have the experience to be president.
  • In Virginia, PPP finds Obama edging out McCain 47% to 45%. He gets 78% of Democrats — a strong showing in a Southern state.
  • In Wisconsin, SUSA finds Obama ahead 52% to 43% — up from a 6% lead in May. This includes the support of 91% of registered Democrats (!) and a 23% lead among women.
  • SUSA also continues to provide completely useless VP pairings: Which poll respondents has ever heard of Carly Fiorina?
  • In Maine, Obama crushes McCain 55% to 33%, up from a 13% lead last month in a new Rasmussen poll. There’s no breakdown by congressional district but with this sort of lead there is no doubt Obama is ahead in both.
  • In Alaska, finally, Rasmussen continues to find competitive races, with McCain ahead 45% to 41%, down from a 9% lead last month.
  • McCain and Obama have comparable favorability ratings (58% to 53% rspectively) but the enthusiasm level really varies, both among very favorable opinions (29% Obama and 18% McCain) and very unfavorable (31% Obama). This is a pattern we are seeing in many red states.

Wisconsin’s lead confirms other polls we have been seeing and my hypothesis that the “Dukakis 5″ states are coming home, slowly removing 5 blue states from the list McCain can contest. The Alaska poll is stunning, of course, though it is unclear how much the campaigns will look in that direction (it is rather far, after all).

And I have resolved to no longer express wonder and amazement when a Virginia poll shows a tie or Obama narrowly ahead, as every poll recently released from the Commonwealth shows that result — including one released early this week. That the state’s 13 electoral votes are in play are a nightmare for McCain as they expand the map in a region the GOP has long not had to defend. With Mark Warner set to destroy Jim Gilmore, there could even be reverse coattails — as the PPP poll confirms:

  • This Senate race is no doubt polled so much because Virginia is competitive at the presidential level, but we are still waiting for Colorado to be polled this much. PPP finds Warner crushing 59% to 28% and the worst news for Gilmore is that no one is surprised…
  • In more interesting Senate news, Susan Collins continues to slip in Maine. The latest Rasmussen poll finds her ahead 49% to 42% — under 50% and within single-digits for the first time. Last month’s poll, finding her ahead by 10%, was already the tightest the race has ever been.
  • Proving that Collins is in a Chaffee-esque situation of being driven down by her party rather than by her own liabilities, she has a shockingly high 70% favorability rating.
  • In North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole rebounds in a new Civitas poll: Barely ahead 45% to 43% last month, she is now leading 48% to 38%.
  • In another congressional poll from that state, this one from NC-08, Larry Kissell is narrowly ahead of Rep. Hayes 45% to 43% in an internal poll conducted by Anzalone Liszt.
  • This is a district that voted Bush twice (including by 9% in 2004) but Obama leads McCain 50% to 37% (should we take that as a sign that the poll oversamples dems? A 23% swing from where we were 4 years ago is perhaps a bit much).

Maine has long been a disappointment to Dems,
as Collins has been ahead by more than 20% in many polls taken since the fall of 2007. But as partisan passions heat up in the coming months it looks like Collins could get dangerously close to being this cycle’s Linc Chaffee and suffer from her party’s dismal ratings. As Al Franken’s situation is worsening in MN, the DSCC would be delighted to get Maine back in the picture. As for NC, Dole is still under 50% in the Civitas poll but this is the second pollster (after Rasmussen) among those that had shown a tied race in May (after Hagan’s primary victory) to find that Dole has rebounded. There are clear reasons for that, too: (1) Hagan’s primary bounce faded and (2) Dole has been running TV ads over the past few weeks. Still within striking distance for Democrats but no reason to be as euphoric as the DSCC was last month.

House update: 2 more special elections, new polls, and the latest recruitment news

Published
by
Taniel
on January 17, 2008
in IN-07, KY-03, LA-06 and NC-08
. 1 Comment
  • Special elections: IN-07 and LA-06

We have been facing a seemingly never-ending series of special election over the past few months. And here are two more coming up. First, Indiana’s 7th district, that opened up last month after Rep. Carson passed away. Last week-end, both parties selected their candidates for the March special election but only the party’s leadership participate in the choice, as the selection was not opened to a primary process. The GOP is fielding its strongest competitor, state Rep. Jon Elrod who was already eying a run before the seat opened up. Democrats chose the grandson of the former representative, Andre Carson. Many are criticizing that choice as the weakest choice the Democrats could have made.

And indeed it looks like Democrats will have a fight in their hands in a blue district that Bush lost decisively. But Dems unexpectedly lost Indianapolis in November, suggesting that the GOP has an opening in this region. And a poll that was released a few days ago has Carson barely edging Elrod 41% to 38%. Caveat: The poll was conducted for one of Carson’s rivals in the Democratic selection process. But considering that the GOP has been excited about Elrod for a long time now, expect a big fight in this district come March.

Second we have LA-06, where Rep. Richard Baker is resigning from his House seat 22 years after entering Congress in order to… join the private sector. In other words, he is following in Trent Lott’s footsteps. This is a district that is clearly Republican and that Bush won with 59%, but Democrats believe they have a chance. This is the opposite scenario as IN-07, as Dems already had a candidate eying the seat before it opened up: state Rep. Don Cazayoux, a conservative Democrat who is being touted as a very strong recruit who could take the district from Republican hands. And however competitive Cazayoux actually manages to make the seat, expect the DCCC to dump a big sum of money in a replay of OH-06.

  • NC-08: Hayes in trouble in North Carolina

Rep. Hayes barely survived his 2006 re-election bid in a shocking shocking by democrat Larry Kissell who only lost by 329 votes. The DCCC had not committed to the seat at all, believing it had better chances elsewhere and it got criticized for failing to push Kissell through the finish line. This time, the DCCC is looking closely at the race and will likely help Kissell but Rep. Hayes has a big advantage over 2006: he knows what is coming and is preparing himself (and raising money) accordingly.

Yet, a new poll has Hayes trailing 49% to 47%, which is obviously a very week showing for an incumbent. The poll was conducted by Greenberg Research, one of the most reputable Democratic firms, for the CAP Action Fund and the SEIU union. So it is an internal poll of sorts but it still paints a dire picture for Hayes.

  • KY-03: Is Northup coming back?

Good news for Republicans in KY-03, one of their (slightly) surprising losses in 2006. Rep. Anne Northup, who had survived a countless number of challenges over the years, is now nearing a decision on whether to run again, something she was not planning to do a few months ago. Freshman Democrat Rep. Yarmuth was hoping to face an easy road to re-election, especially given that the district leans Democratic at the presidential level. But there is no doubt that (relatively moderate) Northup could give him the most dangerous re-election fights he would likely face for a while.

Take two factors into account however: Northup lost a very hard-fought GOP primary for governor last year against incumbent Ernie Fletcher, so that has got to do something to her appeal here in the district, and second, a poll commissioned by the NRSC has Yarmuth ahead 49% to 47%. That means that this race will be very hard-fought, but Northup probably has as good if not better name ID than Yarmuth so that factor that usually bodes well for challengers will not play to her favor.