Archive for the 'NJ-05' Category

Congress: Hillary’s impact, Dole’s second godless ad, Stevens’ plea and the NRCC’s hit on Murtha

Published
by
Taniel
on October 31, 2008
in AK-Sen, FL-18, KY-Sen, MS-Sen, NC-Sen, NJ-05 and PA-12
. 2 Comments

One of the most puzzling developments of the past few days has been Hillary Clinton’s transformation from a boogeywoman Republican use to scare conservative voters away from Democratic candidates into a working class heroin praised by the GOP’s presidential ticket!

Hillary’s new ambiguous position on the American political scene was confirmed by two new ads airing in red states. In Mississippi, Roger Wicker is using her as a stand-in for Washington Democrats in a spot that urges voters not to “send a failed ex-Governor to support Hillary’s liberal agenda:”

Meanwhile, in conservative Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford is touting Clinton’s support. Not only will the New York Senator visit the state a second time Sunday to boost Lunsford, but footage of her first visit a few weeks ago is now being highlighted in a new Lunsford ad:

That’s right, a Democratic Senate candidate in Kentucky is doing his best to tie his fate to Hillary Clinton’s popularity. Who could have predicted that a few months ago? Given that Mississippi and Kentucky are both red states that McCain is likely to win by wide margins, the discrepancy between Wicker and Lunsford’s ads is somewhat curious - though perhaps not dramatically so.

Democrats enjoy a large registration advantage in Kentucky, but conservative-minded blue-collar Democrats have become reliable Republican voters. It is precisely that constituency that Clinton championed in the latter half of the primary, and Kentucky’s Democratic voters rewarded her with a resounding 35% victory in the late May contest. Today, Lunsford is looking to mobilize the Democratic base by proving to Kentucky’s Democratic voters that he belongs to the Clinton wing of the party rather than to the Obama wing - whatever those distinctions came to mean in the last few months of the Obama-Clinton showdown.

—

In North Carolina, the entire Senate campaign has come to a scratching halt and has been replaced by the controversy over Elizabeth Dole’s “Godless” ad. Kay Hagan filed a defamation lawsuit, but that is not preventing Dole from firing another shot. This is not about “Hagan’s faith,” the new ad says, but about the “fact” that she attended a party thrown by Godless Americans. The concludes by asking, “If Godless Americans threw a party in your honor, would you go?”

Elizabeth Dole is putting all her re-election hopes on this one attack against Hagan - not that she has a choice. After Kay Hagan’s forceful response, Dole would be admitting that her initial ad was a disgrace if she backed down, so she is accepting the showdown. At the very least this new ad no longer juxtaposes Hagan’s image with a woman’s voice announcing that there is no God.

It is nearly impossible to predict what impact such attacks have, so we will have to wait until Tuesday night to see whether it allowed Dole to discredit Hagan and mount a comeback or whether it backfired. One factor to take into account, of course, is the jaw-dropping early voting turnout rate (already 60% of the total 2004 vote), which means it is probable than more than half of voters already cast their ballot as this controversy is heating up.

—

In Alaska, Ted Stevens is trying to convince voters to re-elect him despite his guilty verdict. In a new ad in which he talks directly to the camera, Stevens insists he is innocent and seeks to cast the trial and its conclusion as non-Alaskans trying to intrude in Alaska affairs:

As we discovered over the past few months, there is a powerful anti-lower 48 current in Alaska (even Todd Palin was a member of the Alaska Independence Party, after all), and Stevens is trying to channel that anger to get voters to not only forgive him for his conviction but to also rally around him. If anyone can pull this off, it’s probably Stevens, who is as towering a figure in his home state as any politician in the country, making it easier for him to appeal to voters’ Alaskan pride.

—

In House races, both parties are making last-minute expenditures - and the NRCC is by far making the biggest splash. It has bought $465,000 worth of air time against Democratic congressman Jack “Western Pennsylvanians are racist” Murtha. That’s a very substantial sum of money to spread over just 4 days, especially when it comes to the NRCC. The Republican committee has budgetary difficulties and it has pulled the plug on an number of highly endangered incumbents (Musgrave in CO-04, Bachmann in MN-06, Knollenberg in MI-09, …).

For the NRCC invest this much money in this seat at the last minute means that they are very confident that Murtha’s comments have made him highly vulnerable. If Murtha loses Tuesday night (which is very possible), it will mark a stunning upset that just two weeks ago was unthinkable; if Murtha wins by a comfortable margin, this is one $465,000 that Republicans who’ll go down in tight races will be particularly bitter about.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is spending modest expenditures in at least two GOP-held seats in which they had yet to invest: FL-18 and NJ-05. Both districts are rated likely Republican in my recent House ratings, and polls in both have suggested that the once-comfortable GOP incumbents risk being upset on Tuesday. The DCCC’s last-minute push could help make the most of this - but it is certainly getting late.

House ratings, House edition: 17 GOP-held seats now rated lean Democratic

Published
by
Taniel
on October 26, 2008
in AZ-01, FL-08, IA-04, ID-01, IL-11, MI-09, MN-06, NC-08, NJ-05, PA-12 and WA-08
. 0 Comments

Another week, another round of Democratic gains. Of the 11 races whose ratings I am changing here, 10 are moving in the Democrats’ direction, and three new GOP-held seats are entering the lean takeover category for the first time (FL-08, MI-09 and NC-08). That brings the total of Republican districts in which Democrats are currently favored to seventeen, with 21 more GOP-held seats rated as toss-ups.

Needless to say, the GOP hasn’t flirted with such dismal lows for decades.

The one race in which Republican prospects have improved is Rep. Jack “Western Pennsylvania is racist” Murtha’s PA-12. That means that this is the second week in a row in which the one Republican gain is caused by self-inflicted Democratic wounds. Murtha’s statements aren’t as much of a game-changer as the Mahoney scandal, but they are in a sense more worrisome for Democrats since they have made what was previously a safe seat into a competitive contest.

Yet, the developments in PA-12 serve as a reminder of just how unlucky the GOP has been in most other Democratic-held seats. In December 2006, Republicans seemed assured that they would regain a number of the seats they had just lost, and their predictions sounded accurate: how could Democrats possibly TX-22, PA-10 or OH-18? They were also facing very difficult races in places like IN-09 and KY-03. Now, the GOP is on the run in most of these districts: We have gotten to the point at which a double digit lead for Reps. Hill and Yarmuth does not seem surprising, no one has talked about OH-18 for months, and even ultra-conservative TX-22 no longer looks like a slam dunk or Republicans.

One last thing to keep in mind is that there is a crucial difference between Senate and House ratings. Senate seats that are rated as “likely retention” will not switch over unless something huge happens; the rating is meant to indicate that a surprise is within the realm of the possible. We can predict, however, that there will be a few House seats that are rated as “likely retention” that will switch over. We simply do not have enough polling data and indications from the ground to figure out which GOP incumbents in that list are truly endangered: some will win by huge margins, others will fall.

  • Safe Democratic: 207
  • Likely/Safe Democratic: 226
  • Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 245
  • Toss-ups: 26
  • Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 164
  • Likely/Safe Republican: 153
  • Safe Republican: 127

Full ratings available here.

Arizona’s 1st district, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: No one gives Republican candidate Sydney Hay much of a chance to beat former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in this open seat, but the DCCC is taking no chances. It has already poured $1.7 million in the district, including a $338,000 buy this week. The DCCC’s continuous spending suggests that their internal numbers aren’t showing the easy pick-up that has come to be expected, but those $1.7 million spent labeling Hay a “corporate lobbyist” should close any door the Republican might have had.

Florida’s 8th district, toss-up to lean Democratic: It looks like Rep. Keller will be the victim of the Democrats’ gains in the Sunshine State, and Obama’s ground game risks overpowering the GOP machine in this Orlando-based district. In fact, Democrats just gained an edge in voter registration in the district, reversing the GOP’s 14,000 voter advantage just two years ago. Add that to Keller’s own weakness (he only received 55% of the vote against a weak opponent in the primary), and you get an explosive combination. The DCCC just released a poll showing its candidate Allen Grayson leading by 11%, even though they have curiously still not spent a dime in the district. Keller quickly replied with a survey of his own showing him leading 47% to 43%, but you know things are bad for an incumbent when he feels compelled to release such weak numbers.

Iowa’s 4th district, off-the-map to likely Republican: Rep. Latham is sitting in one of the least Republican districts held by his party, and that’s not a good district to hold in a heavily Democratic year. Becky Greenwald is now in a position to score one of the year’s biggest upsets, just as her party shockingly picked-up IA-02 out of nowhere two years ago. A just-released Research 2000 poll shows Latham leading by only 5%, and Barack Obama’s strength in Iowa could further boost down-the-ballot Democratic totals in the state.

Idaho’s 1st district, lean Republican to toss-up: That GOP Rep. Bill Sali is endangered in a district Bush won with 69% of the vote in 2004 is entirely due the incumbent’s personality and extremism. Sali is despised by much of Idaho’s Republican establishment, and he is best known for incidents such as these, in which he disturbed his opponent’s chief of staff’s interview with a local journalist with heckling and… bunny ears. Democratic internal polls have shown a competitive race for months, and a recent SUSA poll has Democratic candidate Walt Minnick leading by 6%. A sure sign that this race is highly competitive: The NRCC is pouring significant amount of money to defend Sali. Who would have thought the GOP’s meager fundraising would have to be spent defending a seat in Idaho?

Illinois’s 11th district, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: Debbie Halvorson was once one of the Democrats’ biggest recruits, while Republicans did not even have a candidate well into 2008. But eventual GOP nominee Martin Ozinga proved surprisingly resilient in a district Democrats were expected to pick up easily. Not anymore. The Democrats’ surge over the past month has erased the GOP’s hopes of pulling off come-back victories in districts like this, and the DCCC’s money (more than $1 million) is helping Halvorson close the deal. Independent polls and private Democratic surveys find Halvorson pulling ahead.

Michigan’s 9th district, toss-up to lean Democratic: Joe Knollenberg is a well-established incumbent who would be very difficult to beat in a neutral environment, but the Democratic wave is now threatening to submerge him. Not only did the incumbent receive a terrible blow when McCain abruptly pulled out of Michigan, undercutting Knollenberg’s hopes of relying on the GOP’s presidential ground game to turn out his own base, but the NRCC has canceled all of the $600,000 it had planned on spending on his behalf. By contrast, the DCCC has already spent $1,6 million on behalf of Democratic candidate Gary Peters and the Obama campaign is still organizing in the state. A just-released DCCC poll has Peters ahead by 10%; that might be overstating his lead, but the NRCC’s decision to pull out of the race confirms that even the GOP thinks the race is drifting away.

Minnesota’s 6th district, lean Republican to toss-up: It is too early to tell whether Michelle Bachmann’s anti-Americanism rant on MSNBC will prove to be her macaca moment, but it has seriously endangered her reelection chances. Two polls released over the past week showed Bachmann trailing within the margin of error, a remarkable turn of events in a race that until two weeks ago was considered to be relatively safe.And you can’t accuse Bachmann of backing down easily.  After standing her ground in the immediate aftermath of her comments, Bachmann is now airing an in which she asks voters to understand that “I may not always get my words right, but I know that my heart is right.” Far from apologizing, Bachmann repeats her argument that liberalism stands in opposition to American values. “We could embrace government as the answer to our problems,” she says. “Or we can choose freedom and liberty:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3_VRUHStOg"]

New Jersey’s 5th district, off the map to likely Republican: Not that Rep. Garrett is sitting in an overwhelmingly Republican district (Bush got 57% of the vote in 2004, but only 52% in 2000), but he was not expected to face that competitive a challenge this year. Yet, Democratic gains have been the strongest in the Northeast, and that has put this seat on the Democrats’ radar screen. Garrett’s opponent is progressive candidate and netroots favorite Rabbi Dennis Shulman, a credible enough contender to benefit if voters are looking to reject Garrett. A just-released Research 2000 poll has a 7% race, and Garrett is feeling nervous enough about his chances to have released one of the most vicious ads we have seen this year, juxtaposing his opponent to Ahmadinejad.

North Carolina’s 8th district, toss-up to lean Democratic: What a difference two years make. In 2006, Democrat Larry Kissell was pleading for the DCCC to invest some resources in his race against Rep. Robin Hayes. The DCCC left him in the cold, and Kissell lost by about 300 votes. This year, the DCCC is not committing the same mistake: they have already poured in $1.7 million, while the NRCC has invested nothing. Kissell is also benefiting from Democratic gains in North Carolina. And the expected boost in African-American turnout (as testified by the early voting numbers) should make a huge difference in this district, which has a substantial African-American population. As if this was not enough, both an internal DCCC poll and a SUSA survey showed Kissell with a large lead over Hayes over the past month.

Pennsylvania’s 12th district, off-the-map to lean Democratic: Rep. Murtha’s comments describing Western Pennsylvania as a “racist” area transformed this race overnight from a safe Democratic district to a competitive race, and Murtha’s subsequent attempts to explain himself did not help the situation. In a neutral environment, that might be enough to allow Republican candidate Russell to upset an entrenched incumbent like Murtha, but the Democrat could be saved by the political environment. Another factor that will hinder Russell’s hopes is that the NRCC has no money to come to his aid (unlike, say, in MN-06 where the DCCC quickly committed $1 million to attacking Bachmann after her MSNBC comments).

Washington’s 8th district, lean Republican to toss-up: Rematches tend to be the most brutal races, and the second match-up between Rep. Reichert and Darcy Burner is no exception. The latest salvos include both camps questioning their opponent’s college degree, with the conservative Seattle Times taking care of the (now discredited) hit job on the Democrat. That said, Burner has significantly improved her poll numbers over the past two weeks; after two Democratic surveys found her ahead, SUSA and Research 2000 both confirmed that she had erased Reichert’s lead.

In a sure sign that both sides are taking this race very seriously, both national committees are pouring resources in the district, and this is one of the seats where the NRCC has spent the most for now (more than $500,000). That is both an indication that the NRCC thinks Reichert is highly endangered and that they think his seat is salvageable; in short, it is a toss-up.

Full ratings available here.

Poll watch: Obama dominates in Colorado, varying fortunes for GOP incumbents in long-shot districts

Published
by
Taniel
on October 25, 2008
in AL-02, AR-Pres, CO-Pres, IN-09, MO-09, NC-10, NH-Sen, NJ-05, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres, SC-01, SC-02, SD-Pres and TX-10
. 1 Comment

Another day, and another round of polls show no sign of tightening. In fact, there is nothing in today’s release for McCain supporters to grasp as a potential sign of hope. In the national polls, it is Newsweek’s turn to find Obama leading by double-digits. Taken together, the day’s eight national surveys paint a very similar picture: Obama is at or above 50% in seven of the eight polls, and McCain is in the low 40s in all eight, oscillating between 40% and 44%.

This is where the race has stood for weeks, with most of the movement occurring within those ranges. That both candidates’ numbers have been so static throughout October makes it difficult to see how McCain could benefit from some last-minute shifting.

At the state level, there wasn’t a lot of polling released today, but the Rocky Mountain News’s poll of Colorado is very important, as it suggests that Obama has opened a commanding lead in a crucial state. More than a quarter of registered voters (and more than 30% of the number of 2004 voters) have already cast a ballot in this state, so time is pressing for McCain to change voters’ minds. Keep in mind that McCain needs to win a blue state if he loses Colorado. And how likely is that to happen? Obama is closer to winning South Dakota than McCain is to winning Pennsylvania in today’s polls. Enough said.

  • Obama leads 52% to 40% in a Newsweek national poll. Among registered voters, he leads by 13%. (Obama led by 11% two weeks ago.) This survey confirms that Sarah Palin’s image has deteriorated, as it is the first Newsweek poll in which Palin’s favorability rating is a net negative.
  • Obama maintains his dominant position in the tracking polls. He extends his lead by 1% in Rasmussen (52% to 44%) and Gallup (51% to 43%). The margin remains stable in Research 2000 (52% to 40%), Hotline (50% to 43%), Washington Post/ABC (53% to 44%) and IBD/TIPP (46% to 42%). Obama loses 1% in Zogby, but remains largely ahead 51% to 42%. So his leads are: 4%, 7%, 8%, 8%, 9%, 9%, 12%.
  • Obama leads 52% to 40% in a Rocky Mountain News poll of Colorado. The poll was taken by GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies.
  • Ohio: Obama leads 49% to 46% in a University of Cincinnati “Newspaper poll.”(McCain led by 2% two weeks ago). Obama leads 51% to 44% in a PPP poll (he gets 86% of Democrats and leads independents by 12%).

Meanwhile, in down the ballot polls, where we get a lot of news from House races:

  • Jeanne Shaheen leads 52% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of the New Hampshire Senate race. She led by 5% three weeks ago.
  • In MO-09, GOP candidate Bruce Luetkemeyer leads 47% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 9% a month ago.
  • In AL-02, GOP candidate Jay Love leads 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll. However, the share of the African-American vote is about half of where it ought to be.
  • In IN-09, Democratic Rep. Baron Hill leads 53% to 38% in a SUSA poll. He led by the same margin last month. Hill leads by 32% among the 12% of the sample that has already voted.
  • In NJ-05, Rep. Garrett leads 47% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 15% a month ago.
  • In SC-01, GOP Rep. Brown leads 48% to 37% in a Research 2000 poll. 32% of African-Americans are undecided, versus only 10% of white voters, so Democratic challenger Linda Ketner has room to grow.
  • In SC-02, GOP Rep. Wilson leads 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll. Here again, most undecided voters are African-American, which could boost Democratic challenger Miller’s numbers.

Beyond the obviously competitive races of AL-02 and MO-09 (both of which look competitive though the Missouri numbers must be a relief for Republicans), Daily Kos commissioned Research 2000 to conduct surveys in a number of long-shot races. NJ-05, SC-01, SC-02, TX-10 and NC-10: These are all races that were on no one’s radar screen as of two weeks ago.

Keep in mind that Democrats are unlikely to win more than a few of these late breaking races, but any pick-up in this list would be considered a huge upset and icing on the cake for Democrats. In all of these districts but TX-10, the Republican incumbent leads outside of the margin of error, though only Rep. McHenry crosses the 50% threshold. That justifies our keeping a watch on NJ-05, TX-10, SC-01 and SC-02.

Congress: The violent Stevens juror, Boulder liberals, and connecting rabbis to terrorists

Published
by
Taniel
on October 23, 2008
in AK-Sen, CO-Sen, KY-Sen, NC-08 and NJ-05
. 0 Comments

In yet another twist in the Ted Stevens trial, the jury sent the judge a note… asking for the removal of one of its members. The note, written by the foreman, explained that, “she is being rude, disrespectful and unreasonable. She has had violent outbursts with other jurors and that’s not helping anyone. The jurors are getting off-course. She’s not following the laws and rules that are being stipulated to in the main instructions.” Judge Sullivan convoked the jury and asked to be courteous towards one another, so no juror has been removed for now, and the jury is back to deliberating over Stevens’ legal - and electoral - fate.

If this juror’s hostility is based on disagreement over the facts of the case, it could mean that the jury is having trouble reaching a decision - a good sign for the defense. If it is due to the juror’s natural propensity to be “rude, disrespectful and unreasonable,” well, it might not mean anything at all. For now, the consequence of all of this is to delay a verdict and with it any sense of resolution in what is the biggest outstanding question that will be answered before Election Day. (That said, it is highly unlikely that the jury is unable to reach a decision by November 3th, so it’s unlikely that voters will go to the polls before knowing the verdict.)

Meanwhile, the volume of ads in some of the most heated congressional races is being dialed up. In Colorado, Republicans are getting desperate in their attempts to destabilize Mark Udall, who has led in ever single poll taken this year. While third party groups have poured millions in the race and the GOP has invested a lot of efforts in painting Udall as too far to the left, numbers have barely moved for months now, so the NRSC’s latest ad literally goes all-out on the font size department, proclaiming to all viewers that Udall is a “Boulder liberal” who marches in lockstep with his party:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-bgF-aiDTM"]

You decide whether such an ad has a chance of being effective. It doesn’t introduce a new argument, simply recycles attacks that have been running (unsuccessfuly) for months and illustrates them more directly. In Kentucky, it is Democrats who are upping their attacks, though they are doing so on a topic that has proved effective over the past few weeks. Mitch McConnell’s decline in the polls can be directly related to the economic crisis, and the DSCC’s new ad accuses the incumbent Senator of being responsible for the state’s losing jobs. The spot details the number of jobs particular counties lost to different countries:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PRLaEYxR1vM"]

Mitch McConnell is also being targeted by a 527, Campaign Money Watch. The group is spending $380,000 on an ad accusing the incumbent of using his clout to help pharmaceutical and insurance interests. All of these expenditures are taking place in the midst of heightening tensions between the two campaigns. Republicans are charging that Lunsford stole and erased recordings out of a McConnell digital recorder during a debate, and they are considering filing a lawsuit against the Democratic candidate himself.

The prize for the day’s most outrageous ad goes to GOP Rep. Scott Garrett of NJ-05, who occupies what is still considered as a relatively safe seat. But his opponent, Dennis Shulman, is credible enough that the race merits attention. Shulman is a blind rabbi but that is not preventing Garrett of running a jaw-dropping ad that accuses Shulman of wanting to “negotiate with terrorists” while Shulman’s face is juxtaposed with Ahmadinejad’s:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a1GsGv5Dlo"]

The DCCC has not spent any money on this district; given how many seats they are spending in, that suggests that Rep. Garrett is not that vulnerable, which makes his decision to go so negative rather surprising. This gives an opening for Shulman to get some media attention, after all. But Republican congressional candidates are not being particularly careful about what they are saying these days, which is surely giving NRCC officials huge headaches.

While it has not reached the level of Bachmann’s anti-Americanism rant, a recent statement by Rep. Hayes of NC-08 (”Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God”) has attracted significant attention in the local media and has forced Hayes on the defensive. (NC-08 is rated a toss-up in my most recent ratings.) Hayes made the problem worse when his campaign denied it made the comments, then acknowledged them after an audio recording surfaced, and then Hayes denied that the comments had been denied! Of course, Democrats have their own problem with incumbents shooting themselves in the foot, as Rep. Murtha (PA-12)’s comments about his district’s racism and his later correction that they were rednecks has suddenly put that race on our radar screen.

Poll watch: Obama can count on NM and IA, gains in MI; 4 VA polls split; Cazayoux, Hagan lead

Published
by
Taniel
on September 22, 2008
in CA-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, IA-Pres, LA-06, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-09, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NH-Pres, NJ-05, NJ-Pres, NM-Pres, NM-Sen, NV-Pres, OH-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-Pres, SD-Pres and VA-Pres
. 3 Comments

A deluge of state polls released over the past 24 hours test the presidential election in almost all states we might want to have results from. And, as will often be the case over the next 6 weeks, the overall picture is inconclusive, with different polls finding differing results from the same state. Today’s example of such confusion is Virginia, where both candidates lead in two polls (update: I should have noted that McCain’s two leads are within the margin of error and Obama’s two leads are outside.) The take-away lesson is clear: Results from the most competitive states are more often than not within the margin of error. That includes, in today’s polls alone, NV, NH, PA, OH, VA, MN and NC.

That said, a few results seem significant enough to merit more attention. First, Obama leads by double-digits in yet another New Mexico poll, and has a comfortable advantage in a new Iowa survey. Both of these states were won by Bush in 2004, and both appear to be solidly anchoring themselves in the Obama column. That’s not a surprise for Iowa, but New Mexico looked extremely competitive at the beginning of the summer, so while we might be getting used to Obama leads in both of these states, it is a crucial development in the presidential race as it means that Obama can count on 12 electoral votes from red states - not enough to win him the White House, but enough to put him in striking distance.

Another significant result is Rasmussen’s poll of Michigan, where Obama extends his lead to 7%. This is the second poll in a week (after Marist’s poll) to find the Democrat gaining a comfortable advantage in what is generally considered the most endangered blue state. While other surveys in the same period have shown Obama’s lead within the margin of error, this could mean that Obama is improving his position in one of the states that is hurting the most economically. It should also be noted that today’s polling roundup contains the first good news for Obama from Minnesota in quite a while (he leads by 8%) and a survey that finds him with some breathing room in Wisconsin (he leads by 5%). On to today’s full roundup:

  • Obama leads 51% to 47% among likely voters in a CNN national poll; among registered voters, he leads 51% to 46%. In the previous post-convention CNN poll, the candidates were tied at 48%. In a five-way-race, Obama leads 48% to 45% with 4% for Ralph Nader and 1% each for Barr and McKinney. Also: 47% of respondents blame Republicans for the financial crisis, while 24% blame Democrats; voters trust Obama more to deal with an economic crisis; and Obama leads by 14% when respondents are asked who represents change.
  • As for the trackings, Obama leads in all fours: He is suddenly boosted up in Diego Hotline (49% to 44%), maintains a 1% lead in Rasmussen and a 4% lead in Gallup (48% to 44%) and loses one point to lead 48% to 42% in Research 2000.
  • Obama leads 51% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. Obama led by 4% last month. He trails by 3% among independents and looks very solid among Democrats.
  • McCain leads 50% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. Both candidates have high party loyalty, independents favor McCain.
  • Obama leads 49% to 46% among likely voters in an ABC/Washington Post poll of Virginia; among registered voters, he leads 50% to 44%. Both candidates have very strong party loyalty, while independents split. [Update: I should have noted this, but Obama has a 5% lead among likely voters (outside of the MoE), when Barr and Nader are included. Among registered voters, Obama leads by a full 51% to 43% in a four-way race!)]
  • McCain leads 48% to 46% in an ARG poll of Virginia.
  • McCain leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. He led by 4% last month. Obama and McCain have a comparable favorability rating.
  • Obama leads 46% to 44% in a Mason Dixon poll of Pennsylvania. The poll was taken last Tuesday to last Thursday.
  • Obama leads 48% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania. Last week’s poll found a tie. The swing here is among independents - who have gone from McCain to Obama.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Michigan. He led by 5% two weeks ago. He gets an impressive 90% among Democrats.
  • McCain leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 5% last week as well. Obama is still under 80% among independents Democrats.
  • McCain leads 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. Obama has managed to get himself above 80% of Democrats, but his party loyalty is still weaker than McCain’s and he trails among independents. The margin of error in this poll is a relatively high 4.5%, so McCain’s lead remains with the MoE.
  • Obama leads 53% to 42% in a PPP poll of New Mexico. Obama’s lead among Hispanics (59% to 35%) is a bit smaller than we have seen of late.
  • McCain leads 46% to 45% in a Suffolk poll of Nevada. The poll was taken over the past week.
  • McCain leads 47% to 45% in a University of New Hampshire poll of New Hampshire. That’s a 5% improvement for the Republican in what is a trusted poll in the Granite State.
  • Obama leads 52% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Minnesota. He led by 4% last month.
  • Obama leads 48% to 47% in an ARG poll of Minnesota.
  • Obama leads 50% to 45% in an ARG poll of Wisconsin. Obama leads by 7% among independents.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in an ARG poll of Iowa.
  • Obama leads 51% to 42% in an ARG poll of New Jersey.
  • McCain leads 57% to 39% in an ARG poll of Georgia.
  • McCain leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of South Dakota.
  • Obama leads 55% to 39% in an ARG poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In Minnesota’s Senate race, Norm Coleman is up 48% to 47% against Al Franken in Rasmussen’s latest poll. Last month, his lead was 3%. Third-party candidate Dean Barkley only has 3% (other polls have found him much higher).
  • In North Carolina’s Senate race, Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole 51% to 45% according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Dole lead by 12% in Rasmussen’s July poll.
  • In NJ-05, GOP Rep. Scott Garrett leads 49% to 34% against Rabbi Shulman in a Research 2000 poll. McCain leads Obama 52% to 37% in the district (Bush won 57% to 43%).
  • In MO-09, Blaine Luetkemeyer leads 49% to 40% against Democrat Judy Baker in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In LA-06, an internal poll for the Cazayoux campaign has Rep. Don Cazayoux leading 48% to 32% for Bill Cassidy and 9% for Michael Jackson, a Democrat who is running as an independent. In July, Cazayoux only led by 5%. A key factor in Cazayoux’s improvement appears to be his exposure during Hurricane Gustav, as 64% approve of his Gustav-related work.

Some of these results are very encouraging for Democrats, particularly on the Senate side. There is no doubt remaining that Elizabeth Dole is in very serious trouble, as this is the second poll in a row (after PPP’s week-end survey) to find Kay Hagan leading outside of the margin of error. Those DSCC polls appear to have truly damaged Dole’s image. Democrats will also be comforted that Al Franken remains highly competitive despite the Republicans’ best attempts to discredit him.

As for House races, it would be very interesting to see independent polling out of LA-06. Don’t forget that Jackson is taking most of his votes from Cazayoux, so it is somewhat difficult to believe that Cazayoux could have that high a level of support with another Democrat hovering around the double-digit mark. But if Cazayoux enjoys any kind of advantage, that would already be a boost for Democrats, as he is one of the only Dem-held seats that are rated lean take-over in my latest House ratings. But Research 2000’s poll from MO-09 brings good news for Republicans and should damp Democratic hopes in an open seat that is deeply conservative; a SUSA poll released earlier in September found Luetkemeyer leading by 12%.

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