Category Archive for ‘NJ-03’ at Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'NJ-03' Category

Yet another Dem drops out of a House race, but NRCC suffers two recruitment failures

Published

on November 30, 2009

. 7 Comments

A few days after the DCCC lost state Rep. Todd Book in the OH-02 race, another Democratic candidate has dropped out of a House race: former state Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers announced she was ending her campaign TN-03, left open by Republican Rep. Zach Wamp’s gubernatorial campaign.

Just like OH-02, TN-03 was a very tough district for Democrats to contest: John McCain got 62% of the vote last year, increasing George W. Bush’s margin of victory by 2%. And yet, the DCCC had enough success in comparatively conservative districts in the past cycle that it seemed possible an open race would become competitive; Flower’s entry was a good sign for Democrats since a former statewide official can be expected to have the campaign skills and the profile to succeed in conservative territory.

Her withdrawal, coupled with state Senator Andy Berke and Chattanooga Mayor Ron Littlefield’s springtime announcements that they wouldn’t run, leaves the GOP in firm command of the race.

At this point, the 2010 cycle is shaping to be favorable enough to Republicans that they probably won’t have to worry about keeping such red districts no matter who Democrats nominate; as such, Flower’s decision (just like Book’s last week) doesn’t really impact the House landscape. But it does speak to decreasing Democratic confidence: The party doesn’t have to buy into the GOP’s excessive optimism to admit that they won’t have as much success on offense as they did in 2006 and in 2008.

That said, the NRCC did suffer through two recruitment failures today.

In TX-17, the reddest district held by a Democrat (John McCain received 67% of the vote), it looks like the GOP will once again fail to field the strongest challenger possible against Rep. Chet Edwards. State Senator Steve Ogden just announced that he would not challenge the ten-term incumbent in what is a top Republican priority. (A reminder: Edwards is a rare Democrat who was targeted by Tom DeLay’s mid-decade redistricting who survived the 2004 elections, which is why he represents such an absurdly hostile district.)

That said, this is one district where it might not matter who the GOP nominates. In 2008, Rob Curnock ran a low-profile campaign but received 46% of the vote; he is now back for a rematch. Edwards has practically no Democratic base to rely on; if conservative voters are as angry as indicators suggest, it will be tough for the congressman to win cross-over support as he always does. After all, Edwards survived the 1990s but this is the first time he’ll have to run for re-election with a Democratic White House since his district was redrawn.

In GA-08, meanwhile, Rep. Jim Marshall has been dodging all the potentially most damaging bullets. This week-end, state Senator Ross Tolleson opened the door to a 2012 run but he announced he would not challenge Marshall next year. (Note that Marshall happens to be one of the most conservative House Democrats, so this is one case in which Blue Dogs are not vaulting to the top of the NRCC’s target list.)

The GOP has other candidates in the race (notably businesswoman Angela Hicks and a former county party chairman) but Marshall has proved an elusive enough target that he should be able to dispatch non top-tier opposition - unless the environment is very toxic for Democrats, but we aren’t there yet and in that case Republican recruitment could matter little anyway. It is true that Marshall had a very close call in 2006, but that race intervened just after Georgia Republicans (inspired by their Texas colleagues) had redrawn his district.

In both GA-08 and TX-17, redistricting could soonafter change the district’s make-up. At the moment, the GOP controls the process in both states, so even if they fail to pick-up either seat they could be in a position to make these districts even tougher to hold for a Democrat. (In this scenario, stakes are lowered for the 2010 House results since GOP takeovers would be likely in the years ahead.) Yet, Democrats could pick-up Georgia’s governorship or the Texas House next year; that would give them a voice in the redrawing process and force an incumbent-protection map; as such, if the GOP fails to pick-up the seats next year it could become harder for them to do so in the future.

And another potential headache is emerging for the NRCC in NJ-03: Just a few days after I wrote that it was up to football player Jon Runyan to show he has the political skills to be a serious candidate, he confirmed that rookie candidates are risks when he contradicted the statement he had issued shortly before, denied he was committed to challenging Rep. Adler and added he was only “exploring his options.” His spokesperson has since said that was meant in jest (?!), but this only confirms it might not be the best idea for Runyan to go back to the NFL until the season is over and thus launching his campaign.

Dem candidates drop out in OH-02 and VA-10, but another releases competitive poll in FL-12

Published

Taniel

on November 25, 2009

in FL-12, NJ-03, OH-02 and VA-10

. 4 Comments

When Rep. Adam Putnam abruptly announced his retirement early in 2009, FL-12 did not vault at the top of the Democrats’ priority list: While it had only gone for John McCain by 1%, George W. Bush had prevailed by double-digits in both 2000 and 2004. Yet, Democrats started paying attention when Polk County Supervisor of Elections Laure Edwards announced her candidacy: Not only has won re-election in red-leaning Polk County since 2000, but she also served as a state representative for much of the 1990s.

Last week, Edwards sought to prove that the worsening political climate shouldn’t cause Democrats to give up on FL-12 by releasing an internal poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner: It shows Edwards leading former state Rep. Dennis Ross 46% to 42%.

This is an internal poll, so it should be taken with a grain of salt; in particular, there doesn’t seem to be a clear explanation as to why Ross was the only opponent tested or whether match-ups pitting Edwards against other Republicans who’ve declared their candidacy (for instance Polk County Commissioner Randy Wilkinson) yielded worse results that were not released. Yet, the poll suggests that Edwards will at the very least be competitive; if nothing else, it should help her draw national Democrats’ attention, perhaps getting the DCCC to commission a poll of its own and generally get more involved.

That FL-12 would be competitive makes sense. The district is described as hostile to Democrats based on the 2000 and 2004 results, and the 2008 tie is dismissed as due to exceptional turnout patterns that won’t hold in 2010. But I explained in October that FL-12 has gone through big demographic changes over the past decade that suggest Obama’s gains will be long-lasting rather than ephemeral: In 2000, 72% of FL-12’s residents were white while in 2008, 63% were white (we are talking about residents here, not voters, so this isn’t about turnout).

Two Democratic recruits drop out in Ohio and in Virginia…

Despite OH-02’s red lean, Democrats have dreamed of taking it over ever since the controversial Jean Schmidt became the GOP’s flag-bearer. Yet, they’ve fallen short cycle after cycle - and it looks like Schmidt might not even face that tough a general election this time. State Rep. Todd Book, whose entry a few months ago was celebrated by Democrats, is now withdrawing from the race. Sure, the race always looked tough for the party to pull off: In a district that gave John McCain 59%, how could they succeed in 2010 if they failed in 2006 and 2008? But Book is term-limited out of the state House in 2010, so it’s not like he was giving up his legislative seat for a run against Schmidt.

The Democratic primary is now in the hands of David Krikorian, who received 18% in 2008 as an independent. Whether or not the campaign is tight (Krikorian’s impressive showing as an independent suggests he has an audience in the district), it should be explosive since Schmidt and Krikorian have a lot of history: The two have faced off in court last summer after Schmidt sued Krikorian after the latter charged that she had received “blood money” in exchange for denying the Armenian Genocide.

Lawyer Patrick Lewis, the candidate who dropped out of VA-10, was not as highly touted by national Democrats but his withdrawal is no less frustrating: When the cycle started, the party had hopes for a Northern Virginia district that voted for Obama by 7% after giving Bush double-digit victories. Yet, much of it was predicated on Wolf retiring (he is 70). That’s apparently not happening, and the GOP should hold on to VA-10 next year.

… while GOP lands one in NJ-03

Rep. John Adler represents a swing district (NJ-03 voted for Obama by 5% in 2008, for Bush by only 2% in 2004) but he at times behaves like it’s staunchly conservative territory; 2 weeks ago, he was one of only 8 Democrats representing Obama districts to vote against the health-care bill, and one of 6 to do so from the right. Starting this week, he will at least be able to point out he’s facing a credible opponent: Jon Runyan, who used to play for the Philadelphia Eagles, has informed local GOP leaders he’s running for Congress.

The twist: Runyan is first going back to football. Just this week, he signed on with the San Diego Chargers, which means that he will not be able to engage in political activities until the NFL season is over. Sure, the season will end early enough that he should have time to prepare for the GOP’s June primary but this is still a bizarre decision: Runyan has no political experience, has never ran for office and will presumably need to brush up his hold on issues and his campaign skills before launching himself in a race. Heath Shuler, who transitioned from NFL quarterback to Congress, did not do so in a matter of weeks.

While the burden is on Runyan to prove he can appeal to voters in a political sense, he is the sort of candidate - big name, rugged looks - that national parties are often attracted to. (In 2006, The Washington Post devoted an incomprehensibly long article to the good looks of top Democratic recruits, all of them male.) That should ensure that the NRCC pays a lot of attention to his campaign, which will help him avoid rookie mistakes, target the incumbent and access the party’s fundraising network. Adler-Runyan is a race we’ll hear about again.

Guilty of dismal fundraising, NRCC spent whatever money it had well

Published

Taniel

on November 21, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-03, AZ-08, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-02, CT-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, IN-09, KY-02, KY-03, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NRCC, NV-03, NY-24, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-16, OR-05, PA-03, PA-11, TX-22, VA-02, VA-05, WI-08 and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole briefly flirted with another stint as NRCC Chairman but decided not to oppose the candidacy of Texas Rep. Pete Sessions. The GOP’s campaign committee will thus start the 2010 battle with new leadership, eager to recover after two disastrous cycles that saw Democrats pick up more than 50 seats.

To mark the end of Cole’s rule, it seems appropriate to take a look back at the past two years - recruitment, fundraising, expenditures - and pinpoint a few areas Sessions will have to improve.

—

What is particularly depressing for the GOP is that its recruitment was not that terrible. For one, the NRCC had managed to recruit a number of top challengers to freshmen incumbents: Jim Sullivan in CT-02, Dean Adler in CA-11 or Tom Bee in AZ-08 were all highly touted early in the cycle. Lou Barletta in PA-11, Melissa Hart in PA-04, Mike Sodrel in IN-09, Anne Northup in KY-03 and Jeb Bradley in NH-01 were also huge threats. The NRCC similarly fielded unexpectedly strong contenders in many GOP-held open seats (Darren White in NM-01, for instance).

Needless to say, all the candidates on this list lost on November 4th; some of them had even completely disappeared from our radar screen - quite a stunning development given their early high-profile. Given the pro-Democratic political environment, however, non-incumbent Republicans had practically no hope of victory - and we all treated them as such.

—

The NRCC’s huge problem, of course, was its dismal fundraising performance that left the committee in an extremely precarious financial position. This forced the NRCC to pull the plug on some of its top challengers and then make even more painful decisions as to which incumbents it should abandon. It will not be easy for Sessions to do a better job: It is extremely unlikely that Republicans will regain control of the House in 2010, which means that lobbyists and donors are likely to keep filling Democratic coffers. This should guarantee that the DCCC enjoys yet another cycle of financial dominance.

—

Within this context of budgetary restrictions, it is worth taking a look at the NRCC’s fall expenditures to test whether Cole’s team made the right set of choices with whatever little money they had in hand.

The snubbed districts: First of all, here is the list of high-profile districts in which the NRCC invested nothing: AZ-03, CT-04, CA-04, IL-10, IN-09, KY-03, MD-01, MI-09, NC-08, NM-01, NM-02, OH-16, OR-05, PA-04. It is worth adding CO-04 to the list, as the NRCC pulled the plug on Rep. Musgrave two weeks before the election.

Some of these reflect very good calls on the NRCC’s part, particularly in AZ-03. Democrats made a lot of noise about that race, and the DCCC poured in about $2 million; yet, the NRCC did not take the bait and Rep. Shadegg prevailed by double-digits. Similarly, the NRCC was right to estimate that Reps. Knollenberg, Hayes and Musgrave as well as open seat candidates in NM-01, NM-02 and OH-16 were in particularly bad shape. Democrats picked-up all of these seats, and none of them were close. Finally, good for the NRCC to not delude itself into thinking that it could defeat Democratic incumbents in KY-03, IN-09 and PA-04.

However, the GOP’s refusal to fund McClintock in CA-04 and Harris in MD-01 was most definitely a mistake. Harris lost by 1% and McClintock’s race is still undecided. Both districts are heavily conservative, so there was no possible blow back for national Republicans getting involved (unlike, say, in CT-04).

Defensible investments: As for the races they did fund, the NRCC’s decisions are a mix between golden investments and wasted money. While the GOP lost AL-02, AL-05, FL-08, FL-25, ID-01, MI-07, NH-01, NJ-03, NY-29, OH-01, PA-03, PA-11, VA-02 and WI-08, for instance, it seems hard to argue with the NRCC’s determination to defend these seats, all of which ended up being relatively close. The NRCC should however be faulted for not having invested more in some of them (ID-01 and VA-02, in particular). In some of these districts, the GOP invested significant sums (more than $1 million each in MI-07 and OH-01, for instance) but the DCCC simply had enough money to always outspend its counterpart.

Similarly, the NRCC’s decision to heavily defend KY-02, MN-03, MO-09, NE-02, NJ-07 and WY-AL were an important factor in huge Election Day saves - and the committee’s investments in KS-02, LA-06 and TX-22 (more than $1 million in the latter) helped Republican challengers scored pick-ups. (The NRCC should have been a bit more aggressive in Kansas, even though Lynn Jenkins did end up winning.)

Mistakes: All in all, there were few obvious mistakes in the GOP’s investments - except the largely unnecessary $600,000 spent in MO-06, the decision to go after Rep. Murtha with half-a-million dollars at the last minute and the committee’s determination to help Rep. Porter in NV-03. Another small mistake was CO-04: Even though they did end up abandoning Rep. Musgrave, they first spent nearly $900,000 on a seat that leaned towards a Democratic pick-up early in the fall - but perhaps not enough to justify an NRCC snub in a what is still a conservative district.

The NRCC is guilty of a number of other miscalls, but it is hard to blame them given that the DCCC also miscalculated in the same same districts. Perhaps the biggest such mistake occurred in NY-24, where Democratic incumbent Arcuri won an extremely tight race in a district absolutely no one was paying attention to.

The second biggest mistake was FL-21, a GOP-held district everyone thought was highly competitive and in which the NRCC spent more than $1.5 million. Rep. Diaz-Balart ended up winning by 16% - but the DCCC had invested considerable sums as well, as both parties believed that Diaz-Balart was endangered. Similarly, the GOP spent more than $300,000 defending IN-03 and more than $600,000 in NY-26. Neither race was tight on Election Night; yet, the DCCC wasted much more money on those two districts so the mistake here belongs to Democrats.

Finally, the NRCC rushed into VA-05 much too late, spending more $140,000 at the last minute to save Rep. Goode (the race has not been called yet, but it appears that Goode will go down by a few hundred votes); few people saw Perriello has a big threat to Goode - and the DCCC’s expenditures suggest they had not either. Provided he remains in the lead, that makes Perriello’s into this cycle’s Shea-Porter and Loebsack.

NRCC’s new expenditures boost defense, play some offense

Published

Taniel

on October 30, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-08, FL-24, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, KS-02, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MN-03, MN-06, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NV-03, NY-29, OH-02, OH-15, OR-05, PA-03, PA-10, PA-11, PA-12, TX-22, VA-02, VA-05, WA-08, WI-08, WV-02 and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

As expected, the NRCC posted most of their expenditures after the first round of spending I documented yesterday morning, and their decisions on where to spend money over the final week offers us a wealth of information on which districts Republicans thinks are still winnable, which they are resigned to losing, and which they are feeling some confidence in. Meanwhile, new expenditures posted by the DCCC confirm Democratic determination to expand the map.

First, Democrats are not giving up and Republicans are not feeling overconfident in two of the most endangered Dem-held seats: TX-22 and PA-11. Both are rated lean take-over in my latest ratings, but both parties are heavily investing. The NRCC poured more than $700,000 against Rep. Nick Lampson in Texas (bringing its total to more than $1 million) and more than $270,000 against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania. Both districts have appeared to be gone for months now, so it is somewhat puzzling that the DCCC has not abandoned these incumbents; it just spent $600,000 in Texas (for a total of $1 million) and more than $200,000 in Pennsylvania (for a total of $2.3 million).

The NRCC played offense in a few more districts, spending more than $300,000 in KS-02 and LA-06 and around $100,000 in AL-05 and WI-08. The rest was devoted to defense: $506,000 was just spent in WA-08 (bringing the total above $1 million), more than $400,000 in FL-25 and MI-07 (bringing the total in the latter to $1.5 million), more than $300,000 on in FL-08, NJ-07, OH-15, more than $200,000 in NY-29, MN-03 and OH-02, and more than $100,000 in AL-02, ID-01, NJ-03, PA-03 and VA-02. (Note that the NRCC had already reported six figure buys yesterday in WY-AL, NE-02, IN-03, MO-06 and MO-09).

A few notes about these districts: This is the NRCC’s first ad buy in FL-08, a seat that I recently moved to the lean take-over category - albeit the race remains highly competitive. The DCCC just released its first ad for the race yesterday, meaning that both committees are moving in Orlando for a last-minute push. Furthermore, it is fascinating to see which highly endangered open seats the NRCC is contesting and which it is not: OH-15, NJ-07 and NJ-03 at one point looked like they would be easily Democratic pick-ups, but the GOP candidates have proved resilient and the NRCC is providing some help; open seats candidates in OH-16 or NM-01 have been completely abandoned. As for Erik Paulsen, he can thank Michelle Bachmann for her anti-Americanism rant, as that led the NRCC to move resources out of MN-06 and into MN-03.

In fact, even more interesting than the seats in which the NRCC is spending are the seats in which they are not: Given the NRCC’s budgetary constraints, they cannot afford to spend on seats in which there isn’t a very clear and accessible path to victory. As had already been reported but not yet confirmed, the NRCC is spending no new money in CO-04, all but abandoning Rep. Musgrave; there also appear to be no new ads in NV-03 and NH-01, which is more of a surprise. The NRCC’s new buy in KY-02 is two thirds smaller than it was the previous week, which is probably more of a sign of confidence than of despair. And the NRCC has still spent no money whatsoever in a number of highly competitive seats: AZ-03, IL-10, IL-11, FL-24, MD-01, NC-08 or NM-01, for instance. (The DCCC has spent more than $1 million in each of these districts.)

Meanwhile, the DCCC’s latest spree lavishes resources on two top contenders - Darcy Burner gets more than half-a-million in WA-08 and Kathy Dahlkemper gets almost $400,000 (for a total of more than $2 million) in PA-03. But as noticeable are the DCCC’s expenditures in long-shot districts in which they only started investing last week: $350,000 goes to VA-02, almost $300,000 to VA-05, to WV-02 and to WY-AL. Smaller sums go to playing defense in OR-05 and PA-10.

Not all publicity is good publicity, however. A day after Elizabeth Dole provoked the type of firestorm that is very likely to backfire with her ad “accusing” Kay Hagan of atheism, Minnesota’s GOP is facing similar bad press over allegations that they darkened the skin of Democratic candidate and Indian-American Ashwin Madia (MN-03). Such charges are unlikely to cause much movement if they remain topics of discussion on blogs, but at least one TV station devoted a segment to this in their local news (watch video here), getting independent experts to confirm that images of Madia were in fact darkened. Paulsen’s campaign got in trouble earlier this fall for insisting that Madia did not “fit the demographics” of the district, in what serves as a reminder that the presidential race could have gotten far uglier. [Update: Politico's Reid Wilson is far more skeptical of Democratic complaints than that TV station.]

In MN-06, finally, the DCCC’s second ad hitting Michelle Bachmann once again makes no mention of the anti-Americanism controversy - nor does it need to, since the comments have already gotten wide play in the district. What Democrats now need to do is convince voters that Bachmann is extremist on substantive issues as well, and for the second ad in a row the DCCC is focusing on one issue: regulation.

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q740nXMu0ZI"]

In the other district in which an incumbent’s recent words have gravely endangered his reelection prospects, the NRCC has released a very hard hitting ad against Rep. Jack Murtha (PA-12), playing footage of his declaring that Western Pennsylvania is “racist” and “redneck” to make the case that Murtha does not “respect us:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSmUQdZG2D4"]

Murtha and Bachmann’s races both appear to have turned into highly competitive seats over the past two weeks. Will they balance themselves out on Election Day? Given his seniority and the fact that he is a very entrenched incumbent, Murtha is far more likely to survive than his opponent - though he certainly is not helping himself.

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Published

Taniel

on October 29, 2008

in AK-AL, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-13, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IA-04, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KS-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-20, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, SC-01, Uncategorized and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

With a week remaining before Election Day, all campaigns and national committees are budgeting their final advertising push and buying media time to last them through November 4th. The DCCC has poured in nearly $15 million in almost 40 districts already this week. More investments are likely to come today and tomorrow, first because the DCCC has left out a number of districts in which it regularly invests and because it appears that the NRCC has yet to make its last round of expenditures. But the DCCC’s $14 million latest spending spree gives us a good idea of which seats Democrats are the most committed to. (Most of the following numbers come from SSP’s always very handy House expenditure tracker.)

In three districts did the DCCC go for broke; all are currently held by the GOP: In IL-10, the DCCC just poured in an impressive $929,279, bringing its total investment in the district to more than $2 million. (This is partly explained by the fact that IL-10 is in the expensive Chicago market). In NV-03, the DCCC bought more than $750,000 of air time against Rep. Porter, bringing its total to more than $2.3 million. And in IL-11, $600,000 worth of advertisement (and a total that surpasses $2 million) should help Debbie Halvorson win this open seat.

Another group of seats - here again predominantly GOP-held - saw massive investments of more than $500,000. Those include the once-safe AZ-03, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, OH-15 (the total surpasses $2 million in each of these five districts), MN-06 (the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million in two weeks on Bachmann’s seat) and the conservative NM-02 (for a total of $1.5 million). This makes New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter the most protected Democratic incumbent, and confirms the remarkable development by which the DCCC has poured more effort in AZ-03 than in many seats that were more obviously competitive.

Also notable are the DCCC’s expenditures that top $400,000. Here again the list is made up of Republican seats: MD-01, MN-03 and OH-01 (total spending in each now tops $2 million), MI-07 and MI-09 (total spending in each tops $1 million), CA-04 and NY-26. Between $200,000 and $400,000, we have AZ-01 (an open seat that is considered an easy Democratic pick-up but where the DCCC has now spent more than $2 million), CO-04, KY-02, MO-09, FL-24 (all now more than $1 million total), FL-21, FL-25, NE-02, OH-02, NY-29, FL-08, IN-03 and IN-09. Rounding up six-figure expenditures are AK-AL, CA-11, CT-04, LA-06, NJ-03 and NJ-07 (all more than $1 million total), AL-05, ID-01, KS-02.

A few observations about this spending spree. First, the DCCC did not expand the map this week. The only new seat they invested in yesterday is FL-08, a district that has looked highly competitive for weeks and that I just moved to the lean take-over category this past week-end. Also noteworthy is NE-02, where the DCCC’s media buy this week is eight times higher than it was last week. However, there are a number of districts we have been talking about lately in which the DCCC is not playing despite the massive loan it took last week; those include California’s seats, IA-04, FL-13, FL-18 or even SC-01 where the DCCC has not followed up on a small investment it made last week. Furthermore, the national committee appears to have given up on MO-06, which was once considered a top opportunity but in which the DCCC has not bought air time for two weeks now.

Second, Democrats seem to be very comfortable about playing defense. They have largely pulled out of AZ-05, AZ-08 or MS-01, all districts that the GOP had high hopes of contesting; they have not had to spend a dime in places like KS-03 or NY-20, seats Republicans had vowed to contest. And they do not seem to feel particular energy in many of the blue seats in which they are investing. However, we do know that the DCCC is starting to air this ad in PA-12 on behalf of Murtha, though they have yet to report that expenditure.

The NRCC, meanwhile, posted a few expenditures over the past two days though a lot more should come tonight. Noteworthy investments include $375,000 spent in WY-AL, more than $250,000 in NE-02 and MO-09, more than $100,000 in MO-06, IN-03. What do all these districts have in common? They are extremely heavily Republican (Bush won IN-03 with 68% of the vote, for instance, and let us not even talk about WY-AL) and Republican candidates are in such a bad state that the NRCC is forced to spend its money in such districts.

(There is something to be said against the NRCC’s decision making, and we might talk about this more in the coming week: Swing seats like NM-01 or OH-16 will likely be lost for a decade or more if Democrats pick them up, yet the NRCC is not spending a dime there. Conservative seats like WY-AL or IN-03 would be likely to fall back into GOP hands in the coming cycle or two, but the NRCC is spending all of its resources in such places.)

Let’s take a closer look at Southern Florida, where the battles in FL-21 and in FL-25 have become truly vicious. Both seats are in the same Miami media market, and they are represented by the (Republican) Diaz-Balart brothers. So Democrats have decided to save money - and just air an ad targeting both Diaz-Balarts:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMgxd3aiWo"]

The GOP’s response in FL-25 is also fascinating because it bears such a close resemblance to what is going on in the presidential race. Democratic candidate Joe Garcia is blasted for being in favor of “redistribution of the wealth,” underscoring how much Republicans are banking on Joe the Plumber at this point:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTm91xZQhl0"]

Spending, spending, spending (and some cutbacks)

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2008

in CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CO-Sen, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KY-02, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-09, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16, SC-01, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11, WV-02 and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

It might be very little compared to a $700 billion bailout, but it’s a lot of money but most other standards: Every presidential, congressional and gubernatorial campaign saved its ammunition for these final two weeks, and money is now flying left and right.

In this game of piling expenditures, woe to whoever is left behind! Or should some cutbacks perhaps be taken as good news by candidates? The Denver Post reveals tonight that the DSCC will pull-out of the Colorado Senate race because it feels that Mark Udall is now in a “commanding position” - a remarkable decision by a party committee that has a lot of cash, and a clear sign that Chuck Schumer wants to spend as much of it as possible in Georgia and Kentucky.

(While true that Schaffer has not in a single poll all year and that Udall has been ahead by double-digits in some of the latest surveys, Udall hasn’t exactly been able to put the race away either and a number of independent groups are in the state pummeling Udall, so the DSCC better be sure of what it’s doing. On the other hand, the NRSC appears to have pulled out of Colorado as well, and Udall had far more cash on hand than Schaffer at the end of the third quarter, guaranteeing that Udall has a substantial advantage in the final stretch.)

Two Republican congressmen for whom a cutback could be disastrous news, however, are Reps. Musgrave and Bachmann of CO-04 and MN-06. In the former, the NRCC bought $375,000 of air time for this week yesterday, but it will not be spending anything in the final week of the campaign. (Could they not have decided that yesterday and saved themselves the $376,000?) In MN-06, the NRCC had not yet invested any money but had reserved ad time for the final two weeks; no longer.

(It is more difficult to know what to make of this Minnesota cutback: It is certainly not a sign of confidence on the part of the NRCC given that the race just became highly competitive 5 days ago, so could it be a concession? While Bachmann is viewed as more vulnerable today than she was before her rant on anti-Americanism, she doesn’t seem to be vulnerable enough at all for Republicans to despair of holding her seat. Perhaps the GOP saw how much money Democrats were preparing to pour in the district and realized there was no way it could even attempt to match that?)

While the NRCC is busy deciding which of its incumbents to abandon, the DCCC is deciding which safe-looking red districts it should spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in. The result of their deliberation resulted in a stunning new spending spree in 51 districts (SSP has the full list) - six of which are first time investments: KS-02, CA-04, MN-06, SC-01, WV-02 and WY-AL!

The most fascinating of these buys is no doubt KS-02, as Rep. Nancy Boyda had insisted that the DCCC pull out of the district because she wanted to run the campaign herself; the DCCC had canceled its reservations. But now that GOP challenger finished the third quarter in a strong position financially, national Democrats apparently decided they couldn’t afford to stay true to their word. But consider a minute the three latter districts I just listed: We knew that CA-04 and WY-AL were highly competitive, but it is still remarkable to see Democrats spend more than $200,000 in such conservative areas - and let’s not even talk of SC-01, which was on no one’s radar screen as of one week ago.

The rest of the DCCC’s investment covers districts they have already been spending in, but some of their expenditures remain nonetheless breathtaking in their attempt to expand the map onto red territory. And consider that this money comes on top of the $4 million the DCCC spent on Monday and Tuesday in other districts. (I reviewed those expenditures here.) That brings the DCCC’s total expenditures over the past three days to about $16 million; the NRCC, meanwhile, spent around $5 million.

In a number of districts, the DCCC is going all-out. They just spent more than $400,000 in 8 districts (to which we should add NC-08 and IL-10, in which they spent more than that amount yesterday). More than $643,000 is being spent on NV-03 for this week alone! The DCCC is spending nearly $600,000 in IL-11, more than $500,000 in NH-01, NJ-03 and OH-01, more than $400,000 in IN-09, MN-06 and VA-11.

The committee has now spent more than $1 million in all of these districts except MN-06, even though it is somewhat puzzling that they are choosing to pour so much money in IN-09 and VA-11, two districts in which the Democratic candidates are now heavily favored (particularly in VA-11). Might that money not have been better spent elsewhere? The same was true of the $300,000 the DCCC spent yesterday in AZ-01, bringing its total there to nearly $2 million.

That said, the rest of this money will go a long way towards boosting Democrats who are facing tough races (Shea-Porter, for instance) or who are on the brink of putting the race away (NV-03 and IL-11). An investment that could prove particularly important is NJ-03: GOP candidate Myers has been unexpectedly competitive in this open seat, but state Senator Adler has a huge financial advantage in what is an expensive district to advertise in. With this much money spent by the DCCC, Adler will swamp Myers, whose main hope now is that New Jersey voters are fed up with Democrats.

The DCCC also spent significant amounts (more than $300,000) against the Diaz-Balart brothers in FL-21 and FL-25, in the pair of contested Michigan districts (MI-07 and MI-09), in MO-09, NM-02, NY-26, NY-29, OH-16 and VA-02. More than $200,000 were poured into CA-04, CA-11, FL-24, MN-03, NM-01, OH-02, OH-15, TX-23, VA-05, WV-02, WY-AL and 8 more districts saw (including IN-03, KY-02 and NE-02) buys of more than $100,000. What is once again remarkable is the depth of the Democrats’ investment: they are leaving almost no stone unturned - extending their buys to places few Democrats were even dreaming of a week ago and pouring huge amounts of money in some of the second-tier races they are hoping to take-over.

It is hard to think of GOP-held districts that could potentially be vulnerable and that the DCCC has not invested in. Perhaps the California districts we have been hearing about over the past week? Meanwhile, the NRCC is struggling to keep up. Apart opening its wallets in 20 districts yesterday, it spent in a few more today, but only crossed the six figure mark in IN-03, KY-02 and NE-02, NV-03 - all GOP-held districts, two of which were not deemed vulnerable as of 14 days ago (IN-03 and NE-02). For the GOP, the bottom is falling out. How much can they now salvage?

Congress: NRCC spends money (!), Stevens trial enters final stage

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2008

in AK-Sen, AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-21, FL-24, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-11, VA-02, WA-08 and WI-08

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Spending: After weeks of holding back on TV advertisements because of its meager budget, the NRCC finally unloaded over the past two days, buying more than $4 million worth of ads in a total of 20 districts. And some of these buys are quite large - perhaps unexpectedly so.

Over the past two days, the NRCC spent more than $400,000 in two red district (MN-03 and WA-08), $300,000 or more in CO-04, MI-07, NH-01 and PA-11, more than $200,000 in MO-09, NY-26, NY-29, OH-02 and OH-15, more than $100,000 in LA-06, MO-06, NJ-03, NJ-07, OH-01, PA-03 and WI-08 and less than $100,000 in AL-02 and AL-05. (Alabama media markets are inexpensive, so the NRCC’s spending those two districts is substantial.)

To this list should also be added districts in which the NRCC bought ad time at the end of last week, so that they will not have to invest more money to stay on air for a few more days. Those include: FL-21, ID-01, VA-02. Furthermore, Politico reports that the NRCC has just made expenditures it has not yet reported (and will likely do so by tonight) in three more districts, KY-02, IN-03 and NE-02 - three very conservative districts, the latter two of which were not expected to be competitive as of a month ago.

This spending offers a fascinating window into the GOP’s view of which blue seats are competitive and which red states are salvageable or deserve defending. Some omissions of vulnerable red seats continue to be glaring, particularly FL-24, NM-01, NC-08, NV-03, OH-16. That the NRCC is spending so much money helping Rep. Walberg in MI-07 while investing nothing in Rep. Knollenberg’s MI-09 is telling of the latter’s vulnerabilities. However, there are some surprises in the list.

The first is MN-03, the heated open seat in which the GOP has just poured in a huge amount of money: a week ago, the NRCC was reported to be moving out of the district and allocating that budget to MN-06 (Bachmann’s seat) instead. Clearly, the NRCC has since then decided that the district is still winnable. Similarly, Reps. Musgrave and Kuhl in CO-04 and NY-29 look to be trailing, so it is curious that the NRCC has decided to invest some of its limited expenditures into saving them. The calculation is surely that it is always easier to pull incumbents through rather than salvage open seats or help challengers.

Meanwhile, the DCCC posted far less expenditures yesterday than it usually does on Tuesday, including a strange omission of a number of seats in which it has been on air for weeks (the New Mexico, Ohio and New Jersey open seats, for instance). That suggests that there are still DCCC expenditures to come today, which will up the Democrats’ total (they have, after all, a lot of money to spend), but a few investments are very noteworthy.

The ease with which the DCCC invests amounts which appear prodigious when spent by the NRCC tells us all we need to know about the parties’ financial disparity. The DCCC just poured in a stunning $566K in IL-10. This is an extensive district to spend in because of the Chicago media market, certainly, but it is certainly a large buy - especially considering that Rep. Kirk appears to be gaining in recent polls. The committee spend more than $400,000 in NC-08, bringing its total investment in that district to nearly $2 million (the NRCC has spent nothing). The new spending is more than $300,000 in AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, MD-01 and almost reaches $200,000 in AL-02 (as I said, that is a lot of money to spend in an Alabama media market).

Given that nearly everyone has long expected AZ-01 to be among the easiest pick-ups for Democrats, it is somewhat bizarre that the DCCC is pouring that much money in the district, but that is their only defensive-looking move (if that can be said about a red district). Apart from that, the overall picture is as remarkable as last week: The NRCC is building a firewall in second-to-third tier seats while the DCCC is spending heavily on seats it should not even be thinking about: more than $700,000 of Democratic money spent in one day in AZ-03 and MD-01?! Who would have thought that would be possible just four weeks ago?

—

Alaska: Ted Stevens’s trial enters its final stage today, as the case will be handed to the jury which will start its deliberations. The always-useful Anchorage Daily News provides an overview of yesterday’s closing arguments - and through them a recap of what has happened in the trial over the past month. While Stevens’s defense made some important gains over the past month - in particular getting the judge to throw out some evidence - the trial’s last few days were not kind to the Alaska Senator. The government’s chief attorney got Stevens to lose his temper at times during his cross-examination, and she ridiculed his claim that a chair that had been in his house for seven years was a “loan” rather than “a gift.”

As soon as the jury returns, we shall have a much better idea of the dynamics of the race, as it is looking more likely every day that the trial’s verdict will also decide Stevens’ electoral fate. A new just-released Ivan Moore poll confirms that Stevens has closed the gap and that the race is now a dead heat; an acquittal would be likely to boost Stevens on top, while a guilty verdict would make it difficult for him to pull through. But what happens if the jury only partially acquits Stevens? He is, after all, being tried on seven different charges, so a guilty verdict might not be as damning as the prosecution would want it to be.

Poll watch: Obama remains strong in red states, holds large leads in Virginia

Published

Taniel

on October 20, 2008

in CO-Pres, CT-04, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, IL-10, IL-11, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, NH-Pres, NJ-03, PA-Pres, VA-Pres and VA-Sen

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We have reached the stage of a campaign where one day’s polling cannot but be confusing, as the growing volume of data that is released guarantees that results will appear to be discordant. That is the case today in the national polls (Obama’s lead ranges from 4% to 9%, with tracking polls going in both directions) and state polls, where Obama posts big gains and jumps to huge advantages in some polls while slipping in others.

So let’s take all of the polls together and try to break through the noise to find an overall picture. For one, it’s far too early to say that the race has tightened in a meaningful way. Yes, McCain appears to have cut his deficit to the single-digits whereas a large number of polls had him down double-digits last week; but there is little sign that McCain has made any more ground - and he remains in an extremely precarious position in the electoral college.

Yes, McCain does get some relatively good news today as he recaptures a narrow lead in Rasmussen’s Ohio and Florida polls - both are well within the MoE, but they represent meaningful shifts from last week’s polling. But many polls show Obama improving his position over the past week, suggesting that there is no clear trend towards McCain. In today’s polling, Obama is showing no sign of weakening among blue states and he remains strong in the two red states that are the most endangered, Colorado and Virginia, either of which would make him president.

In fact, in today’s polls alone, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in five red states where a win would put him above the top. McCain leads outside of the margin of error in zero such state, and he cannot even muster a significant advantage in Georgia. Obama, by contrast, leads outside of the MoE in Ohio, where a Suffolk poll gives him his biggest lead of the general election; in two polls of Virginia, one of which has him leading by 10%; in Colorado; in two polls of North Carolina, both of which have Obama gaining over the past week and one of which has him opening his largest lead ever of 7%; and even in Missouri.

(More on this later, no doubt, but John King is now suggesting on CNN is that the McCain camp is looking to give up on Colorado which would quite literally make no sense as that would concede enough electoral votes to Obama to get him president. That would mean that the McCain campaign is banking everything on winning Pennsylvania.)

That most trend lines are generally small and inconsistent suggest that most of the evolutions that have been recorded over the past five days are statistical noise, and that is good news for Barack Obama. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

Obama leads 51% to 46% in a CNN national poll. He led by 8% two weeks ago, but he remains above 50%.

Obama leads 53% to 44% in an ABC/Washington Post national poll (the poll was conducted Thursday through Sunday). He led by 10% last week, so his lead is holding, though the internals show some progress for McCain. Less voters think that McCain would be a continuation of Bush’s policies. and 36% think McCain understands economic problems (up from 28%). But McCain’s main arguments appear to be washing away: asked who they would want to handle an unexpected crisis, 49% pick Obama versus 45% for McCain. The ABC/WaPo poll is a new daily tracking poll, so expect daily updates.

Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Democracy Corps national poll, with Nader at 3% and Barr 2 at 2%. Obama leads 50% to 46% in a two-way race.

[Update: Obama leads 54% to 41% in a CBS/New York Times national poll conducted over the week-end among people that were already interviewed right before the first debate. Obama led by 5% before the first debate. 98% of those who said they would vote for Obama are sticking him; 88% of McCain's supporters are sticking with him; among those who were undecideds, 52% are now backing Obama, 36% are now backing McCain.]

So much for the tracking polls converging. 4 have movement towards Obama, two have movement towards McCain. They show Obama ahead by: 4%, 5%, 6%, 6%, 8%, 9%.
The detail: Obama gains 1% in Research 2000 (50% to 42%), in IBD/TIPP (47% to 41%). He gains 3% in Zogby to lead 50% to 44%. Obama also gains in Gallup, now leading 11% among registered voters, 9% in the expanded model of likely voters and 5% in the traditional model (all three represent gains). But McCain gains 2% in Rasmussen and in Diego Hotline (respectively 50% to 46% and 47% to 42% for Obama).

Obama leads 51% to 42% in a Suffolk poll of Ohio. This is Obama’s largest lead in this state since the general election started. The poll was taken Friday through Sunday.

McCain leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Saturday. The state was tied in a poll taken late last week, Obama led in a poll taken last week. Rasmussen’s Ohio polls have generally been good for McCain.

Obama leads 51% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina, with Barr at 2%. Obama led by 2% last week. The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday.

Obama leads 51% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. The two were tied last week.

Obama leads 51% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Virginia. He led by 10% two weeks ago, by 6% a month ago. The main difference from the previous poll is that the partisan breakdown is a bit more favorable to Republicans; Obama gains a bit among independents. The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday.

Obama leads 54% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. Obama led by only 3% last week. This poll was taken Thursday.

McCain leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. Obama led by 5% last week and by 7% two weeks ago.

Obama leads 51% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. He led by 7% last week. The poll was taken Saturday.

McCain leads 45% to 44% in a Suffolk poll of Missouri. The poll was taken Friday through Sunday.

Obama leads 49% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Missouri. The poll was taken Saturday. Obama led by 3% the previous two weeks.

Obama leads 50% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll of New Hampshire.

Obama leads 48% to 40% in a Susquehanna poll of Pennsylvania. This is the first survey taken since late September with Obama “only” up single-digits!

Obama maintains a 12% lead in Morning Call’s tracking from Pennsylvania.

Obama leads 50% to 44% in a SUSA poll of Minnesota. McCain led by 1% in the previous poll.

McCain leads 46% to 44% in a Democracy Corps poll of Georgia.

Down-the-ballot:

Kay Hagan leads 49% to 42% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. Chris Cole gets 4%. Hagan led by 2% last week.

Norm Coleman leads 41% to 39% in a SUSA poll of Minnesota’s Senate race, with Barkley at 18%. Two weeks ago, however, Coleman led by 20%.

Saxby Chambliss leads 48% to 44% in a Democracy Corps poll of Georgia’s Senate race.

Mark Warner leads 61% to 36% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia’s Senate race. He leads 60% to 36% in SUSA.

In CT-04, a University of Connecticut poll finds Shays and Himes tied at 44%.

In NJ-03, a DCCC poll finds Democratic candidate John Adler leading 43% to 35%. He led by 4% two weeks ago. Undecideds have decreased from 29% to 22%.

A pair of Illinois polls conducted by Democratic firm Bennetts, Petts and Bormington: In IL-11, Debbie Halvorson leads 50% to 29%; in IL-10, Rep. Kirk leads 47% to 41%.

Senate: Hagan remains on top in North Carolina, as we have now grown used to, though this is certainly a larger lead than in last week’s poll. Meanwhile, yet another poll confirms that Georgia is highly competitive but Democrats have to get going: 20% of registered voters have already cast their ballot, so the DSCC has to make a big push soon if it wants Martin’s surge to not come too late.

House: No surprise in the one independent poll of the day (CT-04), but Democrats lead in larger margins than we have seen of late in Dem polls of IL-11 and NJ-03. One thing that is not surprising is that undecideds are breaking towards the Democrat in NJ, however. That is the usual pattern in NJ politics.

RNCC works on firewall, DCCC invests in new districts and passes $1 million mark in many

Published

Taniel

on October 14, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-16, FL-21, FL-26, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-10, TX-23, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08 and WI-08

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As the time comes for the party committees to buy time for the upcoming week, the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle and will seats to become competitive once again makes itself felt. The DCCC spent more than $8 million on more than 40 districts, moved in four new races it had not yet spent any money on while seemingly withdrawing from two, and passed the $1 million mark in a number of these contests. The GOP, by contrast, appear to have largely given up on playing offense and are building a firewall around a few incumbents; the NRCC’s meager resources hardly allow it to dream of a better defense.

As always, the DCCC and NRCC decision to invest will not make a candidate, though a decision to pull out can certainly break an underfunded challenger or a swamped incumbent. But beyond illustrating the two parties’ financial disparities, a detailed look at where the two parties are spending money lays out the electoral map and tells us which seats people who are paid to track House races full-time (and who have inside information and polling we do not have access to) think will be competitive, or not.

With that said, let’s use our now familiar classification to break down the latest House expenditures:

Republican investments

The GOP is in such a difficult financial situation that its mere decision to spend money on a race says a lot about how they view (and how their private polling tells them to view) a race. If the GOP is spending money on a race that is supposed to be competitive, it means they think that this particular seat is more likely to be saved than others; if they spend money on a race that was not yet viewed as that competitive, it means we probably don’t have enough information and that district is indeed highly vulnerable.

In the latter category is FL-21, where the NRCC just spent more than $500,000. This district is in Miami’s media market, so advertising there is difficult. The DCCC has not spent any money on the district for now, however, so the GOP might be successful in building a firewall here. (More on the GOP’s FL-21 efforts below.) Also in the latter category is MO-06, where incumbent Sam Graves is not currently considered to be in as much trouble as other Republicans - but the NRCC is evidently worried about his prospects and intent on keeping him, as they spent more than $100,000 in one their only six-figure investments to date.

In the former category is NM-01, the open seat that I am currently rating lean take-over. The NRCC is not spending money here, but Freedom’s Watch and the Republican Campaign Committee of New Mexico are each spending more than $200,000. (Democrats are spending heavily in both NM-01 and MO-06.) The NRCC also threw in modest amounts in LA-06, PA-03 and WI-08. (Update: It looks like the RNCC is looking to spend a lot of money in NH-01 - as much as $400,000, confirming its strategy of putting a lot of money in a handful of races.)

New DCCC investments

Democrats are now spending for the first time in four districts, two of which are obvious choices (CO-04 and NY-29) and two of which are true shockers (IN-03 and NE-02). While it might be surprising that the DCCC has not opened its wallet to hit Musgrave yet, the congresswoman has been hit by more than half-a-million worth of advertisement by the Defenders of Wildlife PAC, and that might have convinced the DCCC that its involvement was not (yet) needed. But now that the DCCC is moving in, it is clearly determined to make a splash: its first buy is an impressive $345,000.

As for IN-03 and NE-02, they demonstrate the Democrats’ determination to expand the map: neither of these seats was supposed to be even close to competitive, and I confess IN-03 isn’t even on my House ratings for now. That will be corrected soon, as the DCCC’s decision to invest a serious amount of money (it has already bought more than $150,000 and has committed about half-a-million) means that the district is indeed competitive. Democrats aren’t bluffing in NE-02 either, as they have brought more than $130,000 worth of ads.

Districts where the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million

This is not a guarantee that the Democratic candidate will, but it certainly means that the DCCC has put a high priority in winning these races: AK-AL, AZ-01, AZ-03 (!), AZ-05, MN-03, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-07, OH-15, OH-16. In other districts, the total passes $1 million when the DCCC’s investment is added to that of NARPAC (National Association of Realtors). In PA-11, for instance, that total reaches $1.8 million; if Rep. Kanjorski loses reelection, it will just how incredibly vulnerable he had become.

Districts the DCCC is playing defense

The DCCC continued to invest in AL-05 (now almost half-a-million total), CA-11, AZ-05 (nearly $250,000 this week, bringing the total to $1.2 million), LA-06, MS-01, NH-01 (the total now reaches $1.2 million), PA-10, TX-23 and WI-08. More surprising is the DCCC’s decision to dump huge resources in IN-09 (almost $300,000 this week), a district that looks increasingly safe for Baron Hill. However, the DCCC looks to have stopped advertising in FL-16 (Mahoney’s district…) and AZ-08, where Rep. Giffords looks relatively secure. Both districts could be moved accordingly in my upcoming rating changes.

Districts that were not so long ago considered long shots

I already mentioned IN-03 and NE-02, but those are just the tip of the iceberg as the DCCC continues to pour in money in races that were not considered that competitive as of this summer! New spending in AL-02 raises the total to more than half-a-million, an impressive sum for this relatively cheap media market. The DCCC’s spending totals in AZ-03 are truly staggering, as this is a district no one thought of as that competitive until ten days ago - and the DCCC just dumped in about $369,000. In MD-01, a large new buy brings the Democratic total to almost $900,000. (The Club for Growth is helping the Republican here with more than $200,000). Other noteworthy buys in this category are KY-02, MO-09, NM-02, PA-03, VA-02. In all these districts, the DCCC is not bluffing and is putting serious money behind its hopes of riding a blue tsunami.

Districts Democrats were expecting to pick-up more easily

Most of the DCCC’s biggest overall expenditures belong in this category, in what is at the same time good news for Democrats (it allows them to solidify their prospects) but also disappointing ones (since they would have liked to spend some of money elsewhere). Perhaps the most surprising development is the DCCC’s decision to invest nearly $350,000 in AZ-01 (bringing the total to $1.3 million), a race Democrats are expected to win relatively easily. The DCCC also just spent more than $200,000 in NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16 (bringing the total in each to more than $1 million), three open seats that Democrats are one point were hoping to have an easier time with. Other districts in this category are IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-07 and VA-11.

Districts that are and were expected to be competitive

This category contains the least surprising ad buys since the races were expected to be competitive since the beginning. Particularly noteworthy buys include the DCCC’s buy of about $300,000 in NC-08 (total of more than $1.3 million), more than $200,000 in MI-07, NV-03, NY-26, OH-01 and WA-08. Combined with AFSCME’s spending, the Democratic buys in MI-07 have an impressive size. The DCCC also spent in CT-04, FL-26, IL-10, MI-09, MN-03 and MO-06.

—

While it would be too long to take a detailed look at the committees’ new ads, it is worth taking a quick look at the themes these new spots are emphasizing. On the Democratic side, the day’s biggest news undoubtedly comes from the DCCC’s decision to heavily invest in IN-03 and attack longtime Representative Souder for having been changed by Washington:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eijpzkDXfIM"]

On the Republican size, the biggest news by far is the RNCC’s massive investment in FL-21. The GOP might have chosen this district because of the scandals that have long surrounded Democratic candidate Raul Martinez, a controversial figure who has enough baggage for the GOP to seize easily. The ad’s closer says it all - “We know Martinez is corrupt enough for Washington, but that doesn’t mean we should send him there:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JroM8wR1sCQ"]

Poll watch: Obama surges in NYT/CBS, leads in OH, CO; Udall pulls away, Dole competitive

Published

Taniel

on October 14, 2008

in CO-Pres, CO-Sen, MD-01, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, MO-Gov, MO-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-03, NJ-07, Nat-Poll, PA-03, PA-04, PA-11, PA-Pres, WA-08 and WI-Pres

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It is a testament to Obama’s dominance that a 9% lead in a national poll or a 2% lead in a Missouri survey almost seem underwhelming. But there is no question that almost every single polling data over the past two weeks oscillates from very good to stunning for Obama. Democrats are left worrying that Gallup’s tracking has Obama up only 7%, that Hotline is only at 6% or that Obama’s advantage in Suffolk’s Colorado survey is only 4% - and the very same day brings surveys that have Obama up double digits nationally and by 9% in Colorado.

The New York Times/CBS national poll is particularly noteworthy, of course, as the match-up itself (53% to 39% for Obama) is perhaps the least exciting news for Obama in that survey: He has now tied McCain among whites, and has jumped to a very solid hold on registered Democrats and Clinton supporters. And there are signs that his multi-million advertisement efforts are paying off, as more voters now think of McCain as susceptible to raise their taxes!

While Obama’s lead in this poll is certainly on the high end of his national results, what should frighten Republicans is that it is in no way out of line with other surveys and other internals: Most polls now have Obama in the high 80s among registered Democrats (take a look at Quinnipiac’s latest wave of state surveys, where Obama gets 93% party loyalty in Michigan and Colorado).

Furthermore, Obama continues to improve his hold on blue states (as evidenced by Quinnipiac’s release and the fact that he posts his seventh straight double-digit Pennsylvania lead) and McCain is unable to even hold on a lead within the MoE in any of the competitive red states. Obama leads outside of the MoE in OH and CO today, within the MoE in CO, NC and MO. In fact, this is the third poll in two days that has Obama leading in Missouri. On to the day’s full roundup:

Obama crushes McCain 53% to 39% in a national CBS/NYT poll of likely voters! The internals are quite stunning for Obama. Asked which candidate will raise their taxes, respondents answer… McCain, 51% to 46%! Obama leads by 18% among independents, and he gets 63% among first time voters - that number alone should make Republicans panicked, as it is likely those voters are not fully picked up by pollsters.

Obama leads 50% to 41% in a national LA Times/Bloomberg poll of likely voters. Three weeks ago, Obama led by 4%. 49% of respondents now say he has the right experience to be president, versus 37% in the previous three weeks ago. Only 10% say the country is in the right direction - the lowest number since 1991.

Obama leads 50% to 45% in a SUSA poll of Ohio. McCain led by 1% two weeks ago. Democrats have a strong partisan advantage. 12% of voters say they have already voted, and Obama leads by 18% in that group.

Obama leads 52% to 43% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado. Obama led by 4% in late September. gets 93% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 47% to 43% in a Suffolk poll of Colorado.

Obama leads 49% to 46% in a PPP poll of North Carolina. He led by 6% last week.

Obama leads 48% to 46% in a PPP poll of Missouri. The previous PPP poll of Missouri, taken mid-August, had McCain leading by 10%. A key shift: Obama has gone from 78% to 89% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of Pennsylvania. This is the same margin as last week.

Obama leads 54% to 37% in a Quinnipiac poll of Wisconsin. Obama led by 7% in late September. Today, he gets 92% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 51% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll of Minnesota. Obama led by 2% in late September. Obama gets 90% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 54% to 38% in a Quinnipiac poll of Michigan. Obama led by 4% in late September. He gets 93% of the Democratic vote.

Obama leads 56% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Delaware.

Two presidential match-up numbers from House districts: In PA-11, a district Kerry won by 6%, Obama leads by only 4% according to Research 2000. In PA-03, a district Bush won by 6%, Obama leads by 2% according to Research 2000.

Four presidential match-up numbers in key swing counties courtesy of Politico and Insider Advantage. All have Obama gaining over the 2004 results: In North Carolina’s Wake County, Obama leads by 6% - a 12% turnaround since 2004. In Nevada’s Washoe County, Obama leads by 1% - a 5% turnaround. In Florida’s Hillsborough County (Tampa), Obama leads by 6% - a 13% turnaround since 2004. And in Colorado’s Jefferson County, McCain leads by 1% - a 4% improvement for Obama.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Mark Udall leads 54% to 40% in a Quinnipiac poll of Colorado’s Senate race. Three weeks ago, Udall led by 8%.

Udall leads 45% to 34% in a Suffolk poll of Colorado’s Senate race.

Al Franken leads 38% to 36% with 18% to Barkley in a Quinnipiac poll of Minnesota’s Senate race. Three weeks ago, Coleman led by 7% though Barkley was not included.

Kay Hagan leads 46% to 44% in a PPP poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 9% last week, which was a high point for her - but this 2% lead is also a decline from the survey results two weeks ago.

Nixon leads 52% to 39% in a PPP poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.

In PA-11, Lou Barletta leads 43% to 39% against Democratic Rep. Kanjorski in a new Research 2000 poll.

In PA-03, Kathy Dahlkemper leads 48% to 41% against GOP Rep. English in a new Research 2000 poll.

In PA-04, an internal poll for the Altmire campaign finds the Democratic incumbent ahead 53% to 41%.

In MD-01, an internal poll for Frank Kratovil has the Democrat narrowly ahead 43% to 41%.

In NJ-03, a DCCC internal poll finds Democratic state Senator Adler leading 37% to 33%, within the MoE.

In NJ-07, a DCCC internal poll finds Democratic candidate Linda Stender 40% to 31%.

In WA-08, a DCCC internal poll has Darcy Burner ahead 49% to 44%.

Senate: Colorado’s Senate race has been remarkably brutal over the past few months - and yet it has been covered very little nationally, especially compared to the Minnesota or North Carolina Senate races. At the end of the day, this one will matter just as much as the others, and while Udall has been ahead for an entire year now, he has been unable to close the deal and Schaffer has stayed within striking distance. It looks like Udall is finally building a solid lead, as Quinnipiac and Suffolk make it three polls in a row to find the Democrat leading by double-digit. Colorado has not yet joined Virginia and New Mexico as sure Democratic pick-ups, but with 3 weeks until election day the situation is good for Udall.

The two other Senate races find some good news for both candidates. The Minnesota Senate race is certainly now a toss-up after Coleman appeared to pull away in September. Quinnipiac and SUSA, both of whom had big Republican leads here, now have the race within the MoE, and Barkley remains a huge factor. As for North Carolina, I have pointed out many times that the pessimism of Republican operatives isn’t matched by poll numbers, where Hagan has certainly inched ahead but Dole remains highly competitive.

House: First, the independent polls, as they confirm what we already know: Rep. English is not doing well at all, and the extent to which he is vulnerable is surprising given that the race was not in the top tier as of 6 weeks ago. In PA-11, Rep. Kanjorski is in huge trouble, as is any incumbent who is below 40, and he looks set to lose his seat. Not only that, but Barletta’s internal polls are in line with independent surveys whereas Kanjorski’s are way off. But it is the DCCC’s internal polling that continues to differ from independent surveys - with their numbers in NJ-07 and WA-08 being skewed to the Democrat compared to recent independent polling. Make of that what you will, of course, and one could very well argue that the Democrat’s turnout model is more accurate, but as always take internal surveys with a grain of salt unless they are confirmed by independent numbers.

House: NRCC finally opens wallet, still no match for DCCC

Published

Taniel

on October 8, 2008

in AK-AL, AL-02, AZ-03, AZ-05, House, MI-07, MI-09, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, OH-01, PA-03 and WI-08

. 0 Comments

While Democrats have been pouring in millions in House races, the RNCC has been unable to follow suit. Armed with only $14 million as of the end of August (about $40 million less than its Democratic counterpart), the Republican committee had to save its resources for the final stretch. Last week marked the NRCC’s first fall advertising in two hotly contested districts (PA-03 and WI-08) and the committee once again opened its wallet yesterday, spending about $800,000 to buy in five districts.

Four of these districts are held by Republicans, and only in WI-08 is the NRCC on the offensive. The NRCC is also spending in AL-02, PA-03, MI-07 (more than $200,000) and OH-01 (more than $300,000). The two latter buys are very significant - perhaps surprisingly so given the NRCC’s low budget overall. Politico reports that the NRCC has budgeted more than $2 million for these two districts alone.

The committee thus appears to be focused on building a strong defense in its second-tier seats and concentrating its resources in a few districts rather than diluting them in many races and having an effect in none. Indeed, it is remarkable that the NRCC’s expenditures are not going to the party’s most endangered districts, even in the Ohio and New Jersey open seats where the GOP looks unexpectedly competitive. Instead, the NRCC is choosing to invest in districts that a few months ago looked relatively safe for the GOP: Who would have thought that AL-02 (a district Bush won 2:1) would be one of the NRCC’s first five media buys?

And even on the day in which the NRCC started to step up its expenditures, the DCCC’s expenditures served as a reminder of how significant a financial discrepancy there is between the two committees: the DCCC spent more than $7 million yesterday in 41 districts. That’s right, Democrats spent in 36 more districts than Republicans and outspent them more than 8:1! And some of these buys are very significant. A quick overview using our familiar classification (Swing State Project offers the full list):

AK-AL should be a category of its own, as the DCCC poured in a stunning $777,254 in the district. This is a relatively cheap market, so this probably (and hopefully for the DCCC’s budget) is intended to buy ad time throughout October all the way to Election Day.

Defense: The DCCC is taking nothing for granted, and continues to spend money in Dem-held seats, even those in which the incumbent is looking relatively comfortable. The DCCC spent almost $350,000 in NH-01 (bringing its total to more than a million), more than $230,000 in AZ-05, around $180,000 in FL-16 and IN-09, about $150,000 in LA-06, PA-10 and PA-11. The DCCC also bought time in: AL-05, AZ-08 and TX-23. The New Hampshire ad buy is especially significant, as two recent polls have shown Shea-Porter in a slightly better position than before and Democrats are looking to bury Jeb Bradley before he has a chance to financially recover from a truly bruising primary.

Surprising offense: The DCCC’s decision to continue pouring in money in AZ-03 (almost $300,000 yesterday) is surprising, given that this seat was in few people’s radar as of last week. And it might not be as surprising anymore to see the DCCC invest in AL-02, KY-02 and MO-09 (more than $100,000), MD-01 and NM-02 (more than $200,000), but don’t forget how conservative all of these seats are, and how unlikely it was as of two months that the DCCC would make such a prolonged play in them. The DCCC also took a substantial buy in VA-02, a district many thought would not be as competitive this year.

Expected offense: The DCCC might be pushing the GOP’s third tier, but it is still as committed to the first and second. Two new big buys in OH-15 and OH-16 put the DCCC’s total above $1 million! And the DCCC continues investing in other open seats that Democrats were once hoping to win more easily - NM-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, IL-11, VA-11. The DCCC is sparing no expenses in seats that are and were expected to be highly competitive, including MN-03 and NC-08 (almost $300,000), OH-01, FL-24, NV-03, NY-26 and MI-09 (more than $200,000), as well as MO-06, CT-04, IL-10, MI-07 and PA-03.

This might seem repetitive to say, and I certainly do not want to sound like a broken record, but the importance of this funding cannot be understated. House candidates do not get as much free media as presidential contenders, and not that many voters watch debates between House candidates… The ground game, direct mailers and a presence on TV airwaves are crucial to the fate of many of these districts, and committee spending can be very important in tipping the balance. While candidates themselves have substantial amounts of money, some of them cannot pull out a win by themselves and the DCCC can ensure that Democrats running in third-tier contests have a shot - while also blooding little-known Republican candidates in open seats.

In fact (via Swing State Project), the RNCC looks to have just secured an $8 million loan - a significant sum that should ensure that the Republican committee can invest in enough districts to avoid disaster, but certainly not enough to offset the Democrats’ advantage (which was $40 million as of the end of August). But Republicans might as well pull all the stops this year: it is unlikely they will face such a potential of a blue tsunami in 2010, making it worth getting indebted now.

Two other notes on House races through a state-level lens. In Michigan, the local GOP seems to be in a state of panic after McCain’s pull-out. I already noted this a few days ago, but Politico has a new story documenting Republican anxieties that Reps. Walberg and Knollenberg are now in graver danger as they cannot rely on McCain’s ground game. Keep in mind that Michigan was truly expected to be one of the ultimate battlegrounds of this presidential election, so these incumbents can hardly be blamed for assuming that McCain’s turnout operation would be in place on November 4th to rally the conservative base.

In New Jersey, Republicans are looking surprisingly competitive in two open seats that many thought Democrats would be favored to win. Recent polls have shown the GOP candidates in NJ-03 and NJ-07 leading within the margin of error. That might be due to New Jersey’s independent voters’ reluctance to vote Democratic in September before undecideds break for the blue team in October, but there will be one year in which voters’ distrust for Trenton will backfire on Democrats, and this could very well be it. The trial of a New Jersey Democrat is giving Republicans an opening to blast state Senator Adler for his connection with controversies surrounding earmarks. Adler recently had to say “I’m not corrupt” - and it’s never a good sign when a politician feels forced to utter such words. Adler has a substantial financial advantage (especially when combined with the DCCC), so Myers can use any free media he can get - and this could help.

Poll watch: FL is dead heat, Obama leads in second NC poll, widens gap in PA

Published

Taniel

on September 29, 2008

in CA-Pres, CO-Pres, FL-13, FL-18, FL-25, FL-Pres, GA-Sen, KY-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-03, NJ-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-10, PA-Pres, Proposition 8, TN-Pres, VA-Pres and WY-Pres

. 4 Comments

There have been relatively few polls released over the past few days, as it makes little sense to conduct surveys that are in the field both before and after the presidential debate. But the few surveys that were released today confirm that Obama continues to gain - though perhaps at a less dramatic pace than some polls last week suggested.

Obama’s strongest showing today comes in Pennsylvania, a state that is still rated a toss-up in my ratings but where two polls today find Obama widening the gap to 7% and 8%. Both pollsters (Morning Call and Rasmussen) had Obama leading by 3% and 4% last week in the Keystone State, implying that Obama is solidifying his claim on blue-leaning states (he opened a wide lead in a number of Michigan surveys last week).

But the basic situation remains the same: Obama is unable to put red states other than IA and NM away. The good news for Obama, however: He only needs one of those states (VA, OH, CO, NC, FL, IN…) as long as he holds on to the blue states, as he seems increasingly likely to do as PA and MI seem to be rapidly shifting towards him. And that is an awful lot of toss-up states to choose from… In today’s polls only, he leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado - all within the margin of error, sure, but he also trails within the MoE in Ohio and Florida. As long as Obama stays ahead nationally, is it really conceivable that McCain sweeps all these toss-up red states?

In particular, Obama’s gains are dramatic in North Carolina, where Obama leads for the second time ever and for the second time in a row. There is little question left that North Carolina has become a toss-up that will consume the GOP’s attention over the next few weeks. Obama also gains significant ground in Florida (5% in SUSA and 5% in Rasmussen compared to a poll taken last week-end).

On to the day’s full roundup, and note that I have fully updated my polling page (I had fallen behind), and added some color coding to make it easier to follow:

Obama keeps up his lead in all four tracking polls. He leads by 5% in Diego Hotline (47% to 42%) and Rasmussen (50% to 45%). He maintains an 8% lead in Gallup (50% to 42%) and a 9% lead in Research 2000 (51% to 42%), whose Saturday sample had Obama leading by 11%. Interestingly, McCain is at 42% in three out of the four tracking polls.

Obama leads 47% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina (polling history), with 3% for Bob Barr. This is Obama’s second lead ever in the state, and it comes only a few days after the first (in a Rasmussen survey that found the same margin). PPP found a tie last week, which was already considered a strong result for Obama. 20% of the sample is back - about where it was in 2004, so PPP’s surveys don’t even posit an increase in the share of black voters. Sarah Palin’s popularity is falling.

McCain leads 48% to 47% in SUSA’s latest poll from Florida (polling history). McCain led by 6% in SUSA’s past two surveys. Obama’s biggest gain occurs among Democrats, where he finally surges above the 80% line… The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday, after Friday’s debate.

The candidates are tied at 47% in Rasmussen’s latest poll from Florida. This is a 5% improvement for Obama since last week.

Obama leads 50% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania (polling history). He led by only 3% last week.

Obama leads 49% to 42% in Morning Call’s 5-day tracking poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 6% yesterday, 4% on Friday.

Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia, within the margin of error. Obama led by 5% in a Rasmussen poll taken mid-last week, but trailed by 2% a week ago.

Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. Obama led by 3% last week.

McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the same margin as a poll taken last Thursday, but a 3% improvement for Obama since a week ago.

Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.

Safe states: McCain leads 53% to 41% according to Mason Dixon in Kentucky. McCain leads 55% to 39% in a Mason Dixon poll of Tennessee. McCain leads 57% to 36% in a Research 2000 poll of Wyoming. Obama leads 50% to 40% in a new PPIC poll of California.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

Kay Hagan takes her biggest lead yet in any poll, 46% to 38% in the latest PPP survey of North Carolina’s Senate race (polling history). Libertarian Chris Cole gets 6%, which allows Hagan to hold Dole under 50% of the white vote.

GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan leads 43% to 31% in a Research 2000 poll of FL-13 (polling history).

GOP Rep. Ros-Lehtinen has a large lead, 53% to 36%, against Annette Taddeo in a Research 2000 poll of FL-18.

GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia 45% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of FL-25. The poll does find Obama trailing by 15%, though Kerry lost the district by 12%.

In NJ-03, a Zogby poll finds GOP candidate Chris Myers narrowly ahead of John Adler, 39% to 37%. 22% are undecided.

In PA-10, Rep. Chris Carney leads Republican challenger Paul Hackett according to a Lycoming College poll.

A DSCC-sponsored poll finds Saxby Chambliss leading only 37% to 34% (down from a 6% lead in August) in Georgia’s Senate race (polling history), but the pollster’s decision to not push undecideds at all doesn’t strike that much confidence in Jim Martin’s chances.

California’s Proposition 8 would be defeated 55% to 41% according to the latest PPIC poll.

Instead of releasing poll numbers, the DSCC would be investing some money into running an ad campaign in Georgia’s Senate race if they were that confident that this is a 3% race. To choose to not push undecideds at all in this red a state can be a way to lower an incumbent Republican’s numbers. Until we get more proof that Chambliss is this vulnerable, Georgia cannot be considered part of the top tier Senate races.

That said, Democrats can certainly celebrate Elizabeth Dole’s continuing collapse. What is truly worrisome for the incumbent Senator is that many pollsters are showing a similar trendline. Before this PPP poll, it was Rasmussen that had found Dole sinking to a new low at the end of last week. And Dole will also have to struggle against Obama’s ground game.

As for the House races, Democrats have their eyes on many Florida seats - and not all look as promising as they would hope. Of the three Southern Florida districts, however, two seem ripe for pick-up (FL-21 and FL-25), but this is not the first poll to find that Ros-Lehtinen looks safe in FL-18. The situation in FL-13 seems more debatable, but it does look like Democrats missed an opportunity in 2006 (or did they? in no district was the result as controversial as here).

House results: +63 GOP

GOP pick-ups: AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, IN-9, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MN-8, MO-4, MS-1, MS-4, NJ-3, NC-2, ND-AL, NH-1, NH-2, NM-2, NV-3, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, SD-AL, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1, IL-8, NY-25, TX-27

Major Dem saves:: CT-5, MA-10, NC-7, NM-1, NY-23, OR-5, CA-18, CA-47, CO-7, CT-4, GA-2, IN-2, IA-2, ME-1, MI-9, MN-1, NC-8, NC-11, NY-22, PA-12, RI-1, WI-3, AR-4, GA-12, IA-1, IA-3, IL-12, KY-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, ME-2, MI-15, MN-7, NM-3, NJ-6, NY-2, NY-4, PA-4, PA-17, O-13, OR-4, TN-5, UT-2, WV-3, WA-9, AZ-7, AZ-8, VA-11, WA-2, CA-11, CA-20, KY-6

Dem pick-ups: DE-AL, HI-1, LA-2

Major GOP saves: AZ-3, CA-3, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, WA-8

Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'NJ-03' Category

Yet another Dem drops out of a House race, but NRCC suffers two recruitment failures

Dem candidates drop out in OH-02 and VA-10, but another releases competitive poll in FL-12

Guilty of dismal fundraising, NRCC spent whatever money it had well

NRCC’s new expenditures boost defense, play some offense

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Spending, spending, spending (and some cutbacks)

Congress: NRCC spends money (!), Stevens trial enters final stage

Poll watch: Obama remains strong in red states, holds large leads in Virginia

RNCC works on firewall, DCCC invests in new districts and passes $1 million mark in many

Poll watch: Obama surges in NYT/CBS, leads in OH, CO; Udall pulls away, Dole competitive

House: NRCC finally opens wallet, still no match for DCCC

Poll watch: FL is dead heat, Obama leads in second NC poll, widens gap in PA

House results: +63 GOP

Senate results: +6 GOP (final)

Gubernatorial Results: +5 GOP

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