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Category Archive for ‘NV-Sen’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'NV-Sen' CategoryPage 2 of 3


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Nevada does not like its incumbents

Mason Dixon’s August poll was the first shot clear sign that Harry Reid was in huge trouble next year. Since then, other pollsters’ confirmed that the Senate Majority Leader is unable to stay in contact with low-profile opponents like former state party chair Sue Lowden and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian, which makes Mason Dixon’s new poll unsurprising - but no less worrisome for Democrats.

Plagued by a 38% to 51% favorability rating, Reid trails Tarkanian 48% to 43% and Lowden 49% to 39%. That’s an improvement against Tarkanian (he trailed by 11% in August) but a downward trend against Lowden (he trailed by 5% in August). In the GOP primary, Lowden and Tarkanian are in a statistical dead heat - 23% to 21% - with former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle coming in at 9%.

A 5% deficit can certainly be overcome but keep in mind the name recognition differentials at play here. as they bode ill for the Senate Majority Leader. However, one figure I think is somewhat reassuring for Reid is the 43% he receives against Tarkanian: While nothing to celebrate, that suggests a substantial share of Nevadans are willing to support him.

That’s more than we can say about other Governor Jim Gibbons.

Indeed, Reid can rejoice: He is not in as much trouble as Gibbons. The main question regarding the governor is whether he loses in the Republican primary or in the general election, but even that is hardly suspenseful at the moment: former Attorney General Brian Sandoval has already made it clear he is running, making it it more than likely GOP voters dump their incumbent.

These are the lessons of the Mason Dixon poll, which finds Gibbons’s approval rating at a catastrophic 14%. For those of you keeping track, that makes him the most unpopular governor in the country, hardly surprising giving his constant presence on the first page of tabloids, his financial scandals and Nevada’s fiscal problems. Gibbons handily loses all his match-ups:

  • He trails 41% to 20% against Sandoval in the GOP primary.
  • In the general election, Gibbons loses 47% to 37% against Rory Reid; if Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman runs as an independent, Gibbons comes in third, with Goodman at 36%, Reid at 27% and Gibbons at 24%.
  • If Sandoval is the Republican nominee, he crushes Reid 50% to 32%; in a 3-way race, he ties Goodman at 33% with Reid at 25%.

Given Gibbons’s approval rating, we might have expected him to face larger deficits in the general election, which gets us to what is the GOP’s best hope of retaining this governorship: Rory Reid is likely to emerge as the Democratic nominee ever since Speaker Barbara Buckley passed on a run. Whatever Reid’s assets, the unpopularity of his father dramatically lowers his electability; that is reflected in the drubbing he receives against Sandoval.

There is still a long time to go, but the ease with which Sandoval dispatches both Gibbons and Reid make him the early front-runner to win the governorship. Of course, the biggest wild card in the race is the possibility that Goodman jumps in the race, as he would have an excellent chance of reaching the Governor’s mansion - not to mention breath new life into everyone’s candidacy.

Note that Goodman is a registered Democrat. He has expressed clear preference for running as an independent (”I think it’s a wonderful thing when you don’t have to get involved in party politics”) but I don’t believe he has ruled out seeking the Democratic nomination. As such, I wish Mason Dixon had also polled match-ups with Goodman as the Democrats’ nominee. That would have given us useful information not only about just how formidable a candidate Goodman would be but also how much Reid underperforms compared to the state’s Democratic potential.

Another potential wild card in this race was taken care of last week: former state Senator Joe Heck, who was running for the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination since the spring, announced he was dropping out of the race to challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus in NV-03.

The GOP’s best chance at keeping the governorship is to dump Gibbons in the primary so Heck’s move is good news for the RGA: Gibbons’s main hope of clinching the GOP nomination would be to face such a crowded face that the anti-incumbent vote is divided. Sandoval could not have been sure of emerging as the undisputed Gibbons opponent had Heck stayed in the race because of areas of tension between Sandoval and the conservative base, most notably the former AG’s support for the state’s domestic partnership law.

Now, however, North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon is still in the race but Heck’s exit does leave Sandoval as Gibbons’s main alternative. The main obstacle in Sandoval’s route is Rep. Dean Heller, who ruled out running for Senate but has not done the same about the gubernatorial race. Yet, it does not look likely that Heller will leave his relatively safe House job for this chaotic a statewide run.

Heck’s entry in the gubernatorial race is also good news for the GOP at the House level - but I’ll keep that for a post to come up later. For now, let’s move to the last incumbent we have left in the Mason Dixon poll: John Ensign, who is contributing to weighing down the Republican brand: His favorability rating (23/43) is far worse than Reid’s - yet better than Gibbons’s, which tells us a lot about the governor’s vulnerability.

Gibbons and Ensign’s unpopularity will make it harder for the GOP to enjoy the dividends of a favorable national environment and a red wave will have a harder time submerging the Silver State. That makes Titus - more so than Reid, who is plagued by the hostility that voters are feeling towards their state’s most established politicians - harder for the GOP to defeat.


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New chapter of Ensign scandal is latest slap for Nevada GOP, but Reid lands yet another challenger

As had been anticipated ever since she resigned from her position as the chairwoman of Nevada’s Republican Party last month, Sue Lowden announced today that she would challenge Harry Reid in 2010. She joins an increasingly crowded GOP field: real estate developer Dennis Tarkanian and state Senator Mark Amodei are already in the race while former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has formed an exploratory committee. All have a path to the GOP nomination and, given Harry Reid’s numbers, to the U.S. Senate.

Let’s first and foremost state the obvious: Whenever a challenger has led a veteran incumbent in four different polls before even announcing her candidacy, she has to be treated as a major candidate and there can be no doubt that her entry is an important development.

Yet, we can wonder why the GOP looks so excited by this news in that there is little in Lowden’s resume that suggests she’s better suited to win the general election than are the other Republicans. She used to serve as a state Senator, a position Amodei now holds. The reason she looks like a more promising get is that she served as state GOP chairwoman: That position that might have introduced her to watchers of statewide politics but it remains too low-profile to give Lowden much name recognition or to prepare her for the rigors of campaigning against a Senate Majority Leader .

The bottom line is that Reid’s tremendous vulnerability rests on his own unpopularity rather than on the strength of his competitors. Former Rep. Porter and current Rep. Heller could have made the race competitive on the strength of their own name, but none of the Republicans who are now running would be in striking distance if it wasn’t for Reid’s self-implosion.

The incumbent is marred in such level of unpopularity that it might not matter who Republicans nominate next year; and inversely, if Reid miraculously turns his reputation around and improves his approval rating, none of these four Republicans look strong enough to remain in contact.

And yet, I have the impression that the Republican establishment has already sent signals that it would prefer Lowden win the primary. (The NRSC is unlikely to get actively involved in this primary, but it does not need to do so explicitly to send a message to wealthy donors and local officials.) That contributes to establish a conventional wisdom that Lowden is the most electable of Republican contenders.

Perhaps is it just that her statewide role paints her as a different sort of candidate. Or perhaps is it that the 3 other major contenders in the race have clearer liabilities: Tarkanian has no experience in the public sector, Amodei has some ethical issues following him and Angle is the closest to the conservative movement. But I doubt those are serious enough issues for them to stand in the way of the race being a referendum on Reid.

As such, the GOP primary can prove the opportunity for Republicans to choose the candidates that looks strongest without too much angst about ruining their chances. As I said last month, I would argue that given the low-profile of all these challengers a hard-fought primary should be helpful to the GOP: It will introduce them to voters months before the general election and give the eventual victor a name recognition boost that should prove crucial in the fall.

All in all, the biggest threat the NRSC has to worry about is that scandals surrounding Governor Jim Gibbons and Senator Jon Ensign will weigh down the GOP brand even more than Reid damages the Democratic one, making it difficult for the Republican nominee to take advantage of Reid’s unpopularity. (Talk about a state with unpopular incumbents!) Republican voters can remedy the Gibbons problem by ousting him in the primary, but they’ll have to deal with Ensign for quite a bit longer.

New chapter in the Ensign scandal

This morning, The New York Times published a very lengthy article that delves into the ethical and legal questions raised by Ensign’s actions. For those who need a primer, I went through some of the case’s gray areas back in July: Did the terminate the employment of his mistress’s husband based on personal reason? Is his attempt to pay off the couple with $96,000 a severance package, in which case his failure to report it could be a federal crime? Today’s Times article still more questions, in particular over the relationship between Ensign and Doug Hampton after the latter became a lobbyist thanks to the senator’s efforts to find him a job:

The senator arranged for Mr. Hampton to join a political consulting firm and lined up several donors as his lobbying clients, according to interviews, e-mail messages and other records. Mr. Ensign and his staff then repeatedly intervened on the companies’ behalf with federal agencies, often after urging from Mr. Hampton.

While the affair made national news in June, the role that Mr. Ensign played in assisting Mr. Hampton and helping his clients has not been previously disclosed. Several experts say those activities may have violated an ethics law that bars senior aides from lobbying the Senate for a year after leaving their posts…

Mr. Hampton said he and Mr. Ensign were aware of the lobbying restriction but chose to ignore it. He recounted how the senator helped him find clients and ticked off several steps Mr. Ensign took to assist them with their agendas in Washington, activities confirmed by federal officials and executives with the businesses…

With NV Energy, for instance, Mr. Hampton spent the summer of 2008 strategizing with John Lopez, the senator’s chief of staff, about how Mr. Ensign could intervene with the Interior Department to get the coal-plant report completed, Mr. Hampton said.

This entire story is really a must read; it’s filled with many revelations to which I cannot do justice with short summaries. The bottom line here is that much of this is new information that raises all types of questions we were not previously asking, on top of the already existing question marks on unrelated issues - the termination, the disclosure of the severance package. And yet, Ensign has been able to get himself back on track and for now avoid any investigation into his conduct:

Several legal experts said, however, that the communications between Mr. Ensign’s office and Mr. Hampton might have been improper. If Mr. Ensign knew that Mr. Hampton was lobbying his office and facilitated the arrangement, he could face an inquiry, said Stan Brand, a former House general counsel who specializes in government ethics issues. “You can’t advise someone to do something against the law and not run into trouble on that,” Mr. Brand said…

While several citizens’ watchdog groups have called for an ethics investigation into Mr. Ensign’s conduct, there are no signs of any active inquiries.

We can only hope that The New York Times piece will force a more proactive investigation. What I find most shocking in this piece is the conviction of impunity that oozes through Ensign’s breaching ethics rules - a feeling that is probably all too common among politicians.


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Senate: Qpac has Ohio swinging Dem, Rasmussen shows GOP leading in CO, NH and NV

In the heels of yesterday’s Research 2000 polls that found Democrats Chris Dodd and Blanche Lincoln enjoying sunnier yet still worrisome numbers, a flurry of Senate polls gives both parties something to celebrate. Let’s get right to the numbers, as none of these contests needs any introduction:

  • In Ohio, Quinnipiac confirms what most pollsters have found: Democrats have a a clear early edge. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher leads former Rep. Rob Portman 42% to 31% while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is ahead 39% to 34%. (Against car dealer Tom Ganley, who is challenging Portman, Fisher is ahead 41% to 29% and Brunner leads 39% to 31%.)
  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen is the first pollster to find Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte with a substantial lead against Rep. Paul Hodes, 46% to 38%. The two candidates have a widely differing favorability rating: 58% to 21% for Ayotte, 46% to 38% for Hodes.
  • In Colorado, Rasmussen gives us the very first poll testing former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton - and the numbers are just as worrisome for Democrats as last week’s survey, which tested other Republican contenders. Norton leads Bennet 45% to 36%; she is also ahead of former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, 42% to 34%. Bennet’s favorability rating is a very worrisome 36-49, which leaves me skeptical as other surveys have not found the appointed senator’s name recognition anywhere near that level.
  • In what is quickly emerging as the Democrats’ biggest 2010 headache, Rasmussen finds Nevada’s Harry Reid trailing former party chairwoman Sue Lowden 50% to 40% and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian 50% to 43%. Here again, I find the favorability ratings bizarre, as I am highly skeptical that enough people already know who Lowden is to give her a 48-27 rating. The same goes for Tarkanian: His 57-30 rating makes him as well-known as incumbent senators of most states.

We are once again confronted with a polling situation that has led to many questions over the past few months: In many races, Rasmussen serves us surveys that are more favorable to Republicans than those of other pollsters - but certainly not in a way that allows us to dismiss these results. For one, this is now consistent enough that it is likely due to a difference in the likely voter screen, and there is simply not enough 2010 polling circulating to know which screen could lead to outlier. There is enough evidence out there that Republicans are more motivated that it would be foolish to blindly denounce Rasmussen’s LV model.

More importantly, Rasmussen’s results in most states are really not significantly different from other surveys - certainly not enough for us to dismiss them. I have made this point about Rasmussen’s surveys in VA and NJ, but it also applies to Nevada and Colorado: PPP has found quite troubling numbers for Bennet in CO (if Beauprez leads by 4%, it is that far-fetched for Rasmussen to show a former LG ahead by 9%?) and Mason Dixon’s NV results are very similar to those of Rasmussen - namely Reid trailing outside of the margin of error against these two potential opponents. Research 2000’s survey was a bit better, but it still had both Tarkanian and Lowden ahead.

To recap: Rasmussen’s survey is the third pollster in the past month that has Reid trailing Tarkanian and Lowden - the second that has one of the Republicans ahead by 10%. If that’s not enough for Reid to push the panic button, I don’t know what is.

The one state in which Rasmussen differs substantially from other pollsters is CA since there is no other evidence for its finding that Barbara Boxer is only ahead of Carly Fiorina by 4%. We can’t add NH to this category. Though Ayotte’s lead might be bigger than we have seen, the Granite State is rarely polled and other surveys (UNH, R2000) have also shown the Attorney General in the lead, albeit within the MoE. So Rasmussen finds the Republican in the lead - but not by margin that is not explained by differences in the LV screen. That’s something we should be able to judge for ourselves by the time 2010 rolls around.

As such, we are here in a situation in which the DSCC can point to some polling to suggest its candidates are not in as big holes as Rasmussen suggests - but there are hardly any recent surveys that find what can genuinely be qualified as good for Bennet, Reid or Hodes.

That’s why Quinnipiac’s Ohio poll is so welcome. The state might be one of the Democrats’ golden pick-up opportunities, but the GOP has always believed Portman enough to guarantee a top-tier campaign. Yet, pollster after pollster have found Fisher and Brunner with a consistent lead. Sure, some of it this comes from a name recognition differential (47% have an opinion of Fisher, 41% of Brunner, 27% of Portman) but that alone cannot explain how the Lieutenant Governor can muster a double-digit lead.

The bottom line is that Ohio still looks like the blue-leaning state it became in the 2006 midterms, during which voters gave Democratic candidates two huge victories in the open Senate and gubernatorial seats. In a generic confrontation between relatively low-profile contenders, voters are choosing the Democratic candidate.

This good news extends to the state’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is strengthening his position. Quinnipiac finds his approval rating inching upwards - 48% to 42% - and his lead against former Rep. John Kasich solidifying, 46% to 36%. Sure, Strickland is still endangered - as is any incumbent under 50%. But in the current circumstances, a double-digit lead is nothing for any Midwestern governor to be ashamed of - not to mention that it’s Strickland biggest lead in any poll since April.


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A new opponent for Harry Reid

Remember the time Nevada Republicans were having trouble recruiting any candidate at all to challenge Senator Harry Reid? Well, me neither. Yesterday, state Senator Mark Amodei entered the race, sounding a confident note. “I’d rather run against Harry Reid than every other Democrat in the state,” he said, clearly alluding to the large number of polls showing the Senate Minority Leader with dreadfully low numbers.

Amodei thus becomes the second declared Republican candidate and the third to clearly signal his intention of running, after real estate developer Danny Tarkanian and (at this point former) party chairwoman Sue Lowden. As former state Rep. Sharron Angle remains a potential candidate, Nevada Republicans could go through an unexpectedly crowded primary next year, a reflection of just how vulnerable Reid has started to look.

A competitive primary will force these candidates to spend much of their resources before they can even start targeting Reid; that can be a problem against any incumbent, but it’s an even bigger one against someone with as large a bank account as Reid. But this does not mean that the primary is bad news for the NRSC. Quite the contrary, I would argue that given the low-profile of all these contenders a hard-fought primary should be helpful.

It will introduce them to voters months before the general election and give the eventual victor a name recognition boost that should prove crucial in the fall. (The primary will be held early June, which is not quite early enough for the GOP to feel it can turn around and prepare the general no matter what but also not late enough for a contested race to be that problematic.)

As a 12-year legislator and a 10-year state Senator, Amodei is experienced enough to be a credible candidate and he could be helped by geographical considerations: He could be the only Republican candidate from the Northern part of Nevada, which should help him if Tarkanian and Lowden split the Las Vegas region. If he wins the nomination, he could arguably be a stronger general election contender than the inexperienced Tarkanian, the electoral novice and Gibbons-connected Lowden and the staunchly conservative Angle

But Amodei comes to the race with problems of his own - some that will be issues in the Republican primary (taxes) and others that could come up in the general election. Here’s Las Vegas Sun columnist Jon Ralston’s take:

Amodei not only voted for the largest tax increase in history — before the 2009 session, that is — but he also proposed one of the most comprehensive tax packages ever seen (with Democrat Terry Care) in Carson City, one that higher estimates placed at a record $1.6 billion.

The Care-Amodei tax package would have raised or created a dozen taxes in all, including levies on gaming, alcohol and cigarettes as well as imposing a sales tax on services, increasing property and business taxes, creating an amusement tax (hello, golfers) and — hold your breath — putting a surcharge on the unemployment tax paid by businesses on each employee…

I haven’t even mentioned ethical questions about Amodei being a mining lobbyist while a lawmaker and being involved in an LLC with retailers boss Mary Lau while he has been a legislator.

The former two paragraphs should make for an interesting primary, especially if Angle does enter the race: The former state legislation is best known for trying to push Prop 13 on the ballot - a constitutional amendment that would limit the annual property tax to 2%. That has made Angle a former ally of Club for Growth, which supported her failed 2006 congressional bid. If the Club now gets involved in this Senate primary, it would spell trouble for Amodei and make matters even more chaotic - though it’s hard to predict anything once we’re dealing with such a  crowded race.

One additional consideration that should matter a great deal in deciding this Republican primary is the fact that the contest should be overshadowed by the Governor’s race. With Jim Gibbons one the most unpopular governor in the country, he is certainly to face a highly competitive race next June: Former State Sen. Joe Heck already running, former AG Brian Sandoval will probably join him and Rep. Dean Heller could do so as well.

As such, the GOP’s gubernatorial primary will be a very high-profile affair, which should result in much higher turnout on primary day than would be the case otherwise. How will that affect the Senate primary? My sense is that it could dilute the strength of the activist vote (hurting Angle?) and favor the candidate with the highest name recognition (perhaps helping Tarkanian?), but we will have to see in the coming months.

The two statewide races could also intersect on the Democratic side: The Las Vegas Sun is reporting that, with Reid’s son planning to run for Governor, the Senator’s advisers are worried that Rory Reid could hurt his father’s prospects if he makes it to the fall ballot (with voters already reluctant to vote for one Reid, will they stand to elect two?). Rory Reid’s camp is insisting that it’s the reverse - that “the senator’s unpopularity [is] as a potential drag on its candidate.”

This is one of the most bizarre stories of this campaign cycle yet. While the Sun insists that the two men are close, the father has reportedly pledged not to endorse a candidate in the race while the son will have to distance himself from the Majority Leader if he does not want to be weighed down by his low poll numbers. With the situation looking troublesome enough for Harry Reid as it is, the last thing Democrats need is for family drama to dominate the political conversation next year.


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In Nevada and Kentucky, Senate polls confirm August surprises

Second summer poll finds Reid in big trouble, whoever his opponent

Two weeks after Mason Dixon poll shockingly found Harry Reid sinking against a low-profile Republicans, Research 2000 confirms that the Majority Leader’s standing is weak enough that the GOP does not need a top-tier challenger to make him vulnerable: Weighed down by a brutal approval rating (36-52), Reid trails the two Republicans who have attracted the most buzz in recent weeks - 45% to 40% against Danny Tarkanian, 44% and 41% against party chairwoman Sue Lowden.

Those margins might be tighter than they were in Mason Dixon, but that’s hardly a comforting thought for Democrats. Not only is their Senate leader struggling to break the 40% mark - a dreadful sign for any incumbent - but this is the second poll in a row to find him trailing a real estate professional whose main political experience is his crushing defeat in the 2006 Secretary of State contest.

Worse still for Reid: Lowden, who is arguably more suited to wage a competitive race, now appears to be a probable contender - something that was not true two weeks ago. Lowden just resigned her position at the chair of the Nevada Republican Party, a move that is being taken as a clear sign that she is preparing to jump in the Senate race. (Given that she will face a competitive primary, it would be unseemly of her to run while remaining at the head of the state party.)

It might still be difficult to conceive of the well-financed Reid losing to either of these candidates, but the time has come to admit that the NRSC is succeeding at putting this Senate race in play and to do with Nevada what we did with Arkansas last month - put it on the map and leave it there.

A side note about Nevada: It is striking that the state’s two Republican officeholders are (unsurprisingly) far more unpopular than Reid. Ensign’s post-scandal numbers are in the gutter (28-53) while Jim Gibbons is holding on to the title of most unpopular governor in the country (17-61). Needless to say, Gibbons has have no credible hope of winning re-election next year, the main question being whether he loses in the primary or the general election.

Rand Paul’s strength is again the takeaway of a Kentucky poll

Research 2000 also tested Kentucky’s Senate race and found strikingly similar results as SUSA’s August survey. As expected, Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson is the slight favorite to replace Jim Bunning but the two Democratic candidates are definitely in contention. As expected, the Democratic primary is highly competitive. But what is not expected is that Rand Paul is looking so able to slow down the Grayson coronation.

Posting a better favorability rating than any of his three Senate rivals (39-16), Paul manages to get 25% of the Republican primary, versus 40% for Grayson. The Secretary of State does not have a daunting name recognition advantage, which reduces the significance of Paul’s strong showing, but it certainly makes him a contender. With early signs that he might be able to replicate some of his father’s fundraising prowess, he should be able to stay competitive. After all, McConnell’s numbers (44-51) are too weak for his support alone to guarantee Grayson the nomination, not to mention that the Senate Minority Leader is only expressing his preferences tacitly.

In the general election, Grayson holds a narrow 45% to 41% lead against Dan Mongiardo and a 46% to 40% lead against Jack Conway; both Democrats have slight edges against Paul, 42% to 37% for Mongiardo and 41% to 37% for Conway. With all three of the statewide officials posting decent favorability ratings, the poll at this point is coming down to voters’ partisan preference - and here Democrats will have to play a subtle balancing act: While their local party is popular (Governor Beshear is relatively popular and Democrats just picked up a state Senate seat), their national party is not (Obama’s favorability rating is down to only 34%). Of course, that’s nothing new in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, and it hasn’t prevented Democrats from winning before.

Why so many undecideds in Pennsylvania?

There is nothing more usual than having large numbers of undecideds in a race involving little-known contenders. But when a third of the electorate refrains from expressing an opinion on a five-term Senator, it’s hard to know what to make of the poll, which is why I am leaving Franklin & Marshall’s latest take on Pennsylvania at the bottom of this post. The pollster finds Arlen Specter posting leads against Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary (37% to 11%) and against Pat Toomey in the general election (37% to 29%). Toomey leads a match-up with Sestak, 26% to 22%.

When a race has such wide disparities in name recognition - 77% of respondents have an opinion of Specter, 28% of Toomey and 17% of Sestak - a pollster’s refusal to push undecideds will have big consequence. In this case, this explains Sestak’s general election underperformance. The good news for Specter critics is that the longtime senator is stuck at low levels of support, is widely unpopular (his approval rating is down to a dismal 35-54) and only 34% of respondents say he deserves to win re-election. Before helping Toomey in the general election, voters’ growing hostility towards Specter will help Sestak in the primary - but we will have to wait for him to increase his name recognition before we see numbers move.


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Scariest poll yet for Senate Democrats

Over the past few months, Democrats have seen plenty of worrisome Senate polls - from Mike Castle’s solid lead in Delaware and Chris Dodd’s trailing in Connecticut to Mark Kirk’s competitiveness in Illinois and Michael Bennet’s indubitable vulnerability in Colorado. But a new survey of Nevada’s Senate race is perhaps the scariest the DSCC has had to deal with yet this cycle.

The Senate Majority Leader is left trailing by double-digits a real estate professional who has twice before failed to win political office.

Now, it just so happens that his last name is Tarkanian, which is enough to give him name recognition many challengers can only dream of: His father is Jerry Tarkanian, who for 20 years was UNLV’s (in)famous basketball coach - even leading the team to a NCAA championship. Once a basketball star, his son lost a state Senate race in 2004 (54% to 46%) and the 2006 Secretary of State race (48% to 40%). Yet, here he is leading Harry Reid by a stunning 49% to 38%.

(The poll was not released by Rasmussen, whose models some of you have objected to, nor was it was not commissioned by a politician’s supporters, as the most recent Nevada poll had been. Rather, it was conducted by Mason Dixon. That said, let’s also specify that the poll’s margin of error is uncommonly large: Only 400 registered voters were tested, which resulted in a MoE of 6%.)

Most worrisome for Democrats is that Tarkanian has already declared his candidacy: We spent so long talking about the long list of Republicans who have declined to run - Porter, Krolicki, Heller, Heck - that we might have missed the significance of Tarkanian’s late July decision to jump in the race. Consider that Tarkanian performs slightly better than Rep. Dean Heller, a former three-term Secretary of State. Republicans considered their top prospect against Reid but he “only” leads 50% to 40%.

The poll also tested state party Chairman Sue Lowden, who leads Reid 45% to 40%. (That’s within the MoE.)

So has the NRSC finally succeeded at putting Nevada’s Senate race in play? Tarkanian and Lowden might not have been the NRSC’s dream candidate, and it might be difficult to imagine as experienced a politician as Reid losing to a candidate whose main qualifications appear to be his basketball-derived notoriety and the 40% he received in the 2006 Secretary of State contest. Yet, according to this poll either should be enough to ensure Reid faces a highly competitive race.

We have long known that Reid is highly unpopular - that’s why he was considered the most vulnerable Democratic Senator when the cycle started. The only reason we have been considering him less vulnerable is the series of NRSC recruitment failures. But the political inexperience or low-profile of his challengers should not be enough to protect Reid, who is posting a dismal 37% favorability rating.

When an incumbent’s favorability is that low, it can matter little who his opponent is. And it’s not like Tarkanian does not bring potentially decisive assets to the race: His name recognition should obviously a big help, and his prior campaign experienes, albeit unsuccessful, could ensure he does not go down the gaffe-prone route of Arkansas Republicans.


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Weekly 2010 update: Kennedy, Krolicki head out of Senate picture as Chaffetz opens door

The 2010 landscape was certainly not shook up by any major announcements this week, with Chris Kennedy’s ruling out a statewide race coming closest to a high-profile decision. An arguably more consequential decision came in Nevada, where Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki announced he would seek re-election next year rather than challenge Senator Harry Reid.

While this is not a surprise - his December indictement on felony charges made it hard to see him as a credible Senate candidate - it’s easy to forget that Krolicki looked like one of his party’s top prospects as the cycle started. There was also the possibility that Krolicki could succeed at getting the indictement tossed out and thus maybe jump back on the Senate track. As such, this week’s announcement adds to the long series of bullets Reid has dodged this year.

Over in Utah, Rep. Jason Chaffetz is looking surprisingly ambitious. Barely more than a year has passed since he unseated an incumbent congressman in a Republican primary, but he looks to already have his sights set higher. With reports that he had reserved the URL “ChaffetzforSenate.com,” he insisted he did this just to avoid “some smart aleck go out there and try to get it.” Yet, he also refused to rule out the possibility that he might challenge Republican Senator Bob Bennett next year; Bennett is already facing an intra-party challenge by Attorney General Mark Shurtleff.

Finally, Rhode Island: The Governor’s race has been heading towards a two-way race between an undetermined Democratic nominee and former Senator Lincoln Chaffee, who is all but certain to run as an independent. The best case scenario for Democrats would be for the GOP to nominate a credible candidate of its own for Chaffee not to also be the de facto GOP nominee. Yet, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian’s decision not to join the race thins the list of potential Republican contenders further.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire/resign Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL-21)
Added to list of potential retirees Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R, UT-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

CO-Sen, GOP former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton added to list
IL-Sen, Dem Chris Kennedy will not run
IL-Sen, GOP lawyer Pat Hughes announced run
NV-Sen, GOP Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki will not run
former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton added to list
UT-Sen, GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment:

AZ-Gov, GOP Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker added to list
IL-Gov, Dem Chris Kennedy will not run
PA-Gov, Dem Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Hoeffel added
RI-Gov, GOP Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian will not run
SC-Gov, Dem state House Minority Leader Harry Ott dropped out
UT-Gov, GOP Kirk Jowers will not run
state Senator Steve Urquhart added to list

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Reid catches most important break yet

Update: In a fascinating coda to the story, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Heller received a call last week from none other than George W. Bush, who urged him to challenge Reid! Apparently, Bush’s influence on his party isn’t as strong as it was in 2002 and 2004; perhaps Republicans who’ll have to do the running don’t think Bush can provide that big a boost for them during the campaign.

Original story: Rep. Dean Heller was the last prominent Nevada Republican who was considering taking on Senator Harry Reid. No more: In what is a huge relief for Democrats, Heller told NRSC officials that he was ruling out a Senate run. While no public poll has tested this match-up, Reid’s dismal approval rating leaves no doubt that he would have been be highly vulnerable to Heller’s challenge.

(An important side note: This does not mean that Heller’s NV-02 won’t host an open seat race next year since Heller is also considering the Governor’s race, which he doesn’t seem to have ruled out.)

Heller’s decision is one more step in the Nevada GOP’s fall from grace. Back in December, Republicans had high hopes for this Senate seat, which I had ranked as the 8th most vulnerable of the cycle. Since then, Reid’s prospects have shot up dramatically as his most credible rivals have one by one been eliminated: Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki was indicted in December and Jon Porter, Joe Heck and now Heller have ruled out a run. This leaves Republicans with a slate of second-to-third tier contenders.

Add to that the collapsing ratings of Governor Jim Gibbons and the fallout over Senator John Ensign’s still mysterious scandal, and Nevada Republicans are certainly not at their best.

Yes, the NRSC did land its first challenger to Reid this week, but certainly not the type of credible contender they were hoping for: Businessman Danny Tarkington, whose main claim to fame looks to be that he is the son of former UNLV coach Jerry Tarkanian, jumped in the race but he is unlikely to get very far. While the GOP has suffered numerous setbacks, it remains unlikely they’ll have to settle for Tarkanian.

In the wake of Heller’s decision, a new name has popped up in Republican circles: state party chair Sue Lowden. Now, I want to know more about whether Lowden is at all considering the race before taking the buzz that’s now surrounding her seriously. Indeed, this is all based on the results of a poll conducted by Nevada Republicans, led by strategist Robert Uithoven, who are looking to draw Lowden in the race. The poll shows Reid trailing 48% to 42%.

While this is a partisan poll, I do not necessarily doubt its findings: Non-partisan surveys have shown that Reid’s approval rating is so low that we shouldn’t be surprised to see him trailing a generic Republican who could pass the credibility test. Nor does anyone doubt the fact that Nevada will host a competitive race if the GOP does manage to recruit a serious contender who can fundraise and display campaigning skills.

But since Lowen’s name was not mentioned until this week, what I would like to know is whether Lowden herself signaled that she wanted the poll taken and its results leaked as a trial balloon, or if she is just a spectator to Uithoven’s efforts to draft her in the race? In other words, should we think that there is still one prominent Republican looking at the race or was Heller’s exit the final step in the GOP’s fall?

Even if Lowden does jump in, it remains to be seen whether she would have the profile, the campaigning skills and the fundraising abilities to mount a credible challenge to one of the country’s most powerful Democrats. Look at the other contenders who are mentioned: former state Rep. Angle looks too focused on championing social conservatism to be that strong a candidate while banker John Chachas is based in New York.

The bottom line is that, while Reid is not out of the woods by any means, no candidate Republicans can still hope to recruit will be in the same league as Porter, Krolicki or Heller.


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Q2 fundraising reports, part 2: Some retirement hints and daunting hauls

This morning, I looked at the fundraising of U.S. representatives and House candidates this morning; now let’s take a look at statewide races. Once again, I think too much is read into most candidates’ financial situation and not every half-a-million difference will matter come 2010. As such, let’s concentrate on: 1. What fundraising hauls reveal about the 2010 plans of politicians whose final decision we are still awaiting. 2. The races in which a daunting money gap could put pressure on candidates to drop out or scare challengers away.

Retirement watch: Rell could opt out, Bunning’s figures could be lower

Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning will be the subject of insistent retirement rumors as long as the filing deadline has not passed; he himself has said that his decision will depend on his ability to raise funds, and Mitch McConnell has been trying to ensure that does not go well. The Q2 numbers are now in: Bunning raised $302,466 in the second quarter - a slight increase over the first.

Sure, that total is far from impressive since he was significantly outraised by Democrat Jack Conway (>$1 million) and Republican Trey Grayson (>$600,000). Yet, the appropriate question when it comes to Bunning is whether his fundraising haul is weak enough to convince him that seeking re-election is too difficult an endeavor, and I believe he is raising sufficient funds to pursue the race. In fact, what’s strange about Kentucky’s Senate race is not not so much Bunning’s weakness as the sustained pace with which Grayson has been raising money for a race he has yet to jump into.

Despite Grayson’s insistence that he has no intention of challenging Bunning in the GOP primary, it looks like either he is certain that the Senator will retire or he is considering running no matter what. Even if his promise not to run against Bunning are genuine, will Grayson be able to resist if he has millions of dollars piled up by the end of 2009 - especially if his bank account is far bigger than his potential opponent’s? The threat of such a well-funded primary challenger is sure to weigh on Bunning’s mind as he contemplates his next move.

Another incumbent to keep an eye on: Connecticut Governor Jodi Rell, who has not yet said whether she will seek re-election in 2010. She banked only $20,000 and is outpaced by her Democratic rivals. Is she looking to retire? That would obviously be a big blow to the GOP’s hopes of keeping the governorship.

Eye-popping Reid and Crist hauls make it tough for challengers

Harry Reid should have an easy time fundraising since many wealthy donors want favors from the Senate Majority Leader. And he delivered: He reported raising $3 million over the second quarter, pushing his CoH to over $7 million. Now, why this matters is that none of the Republican who are supposedly thinking about a run are showing signs of being interested.

Rep. Dean Heller raised $166,000 in the quarter and has a bit over $260,000 in CoH; he would have made sure to report more had he been seriously thinking about a Senate run. More importantly, former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle raised $35,000 throughout the second quarter; she had said that she would probably not run if she failed to gather $100,000 in contributions so it is possible that Republicans lose their most advanced candidate in this crucial race.

In Florida, meanwhile, Charlie Crist raised an absurd $4.3 million over the past 3 months. Not only is that enough to buy more primary ads than he could dream of but it’s also nearly 13 times more the $340,000 Marco Rubio amassed. Given that he was hoping to attract heavy conservative support, this is a big blow to the former state Speaker’s prospect. Crist are using this discrepancy to pressure Rubio into exiting the race and reports now indicate that the conservative is now indeed considering dropping out - a prime example of how fundraising strength can have more dramatic consequences than unequal spending.

In hard-to-read primaries, money could make bigger difference

There is little with which to easily distinguish Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo. Both are centrist Kentucky Democrats, both are statewide officials and both have the support of prominent establishment figures. In such hard-to-read primaries in which neither candidate can credibly portray himself as an insurgent and in which voters are unlikely to have that strong an opinion, money differentials can be important: Beyond the importance of reaching out to voters, they could push the establishment towards a certain candidate.

As such, Conway is certainly very happy since he finally found one area on which to create some distance with Mongiardo. Not only is the latter’s fundraising haul at the same level as Bunning’s (gasp!), but Conway has outraised him 4:1 to top the entire field with $1,3 million. That amount is roughly equal to Bunning, Mongiardo and Grayson’s funds combined.

An even greater unbalance is emerging in Ohio. Every two months, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner has had to release a statement insisting that she intends to stay in the Senate race, where her Democratic opponent Lee Fisher has been accumulating more establishment support. The second quarter figures are likely to increase pressure on Brunner to call it quits, since she has banked $207,000 compared to $900,000 for Fisher and $1,7 million for their Republican opponent, Rob Portman.

The trouble is not necessarily that Brunner’s haul is weak as much as the fact that it will be tough for her to wage an insurgent campaign. It’s very much possible to envision a lower-funded candidate win Ohio’s Democratic primary, but that probably requires substantial support from labor groups; yet, many unions are endorsing Fisher. On the other hand, I’m not sure why party leaders are so concerned about pushing Brunner out: Sure, Portman’s cash looks daunting but the primary is held relatively early and the Democratic nominee will have plenty of time to recoup before the general election.

Money is flowing in Texas

Both of the Lone Star State’s Republican gubernatorial candidates raised humongous amounts of money, guaranteeing they have what they need to wage all-out war. Kay Bailey Hutchison brought in $6.7 million; Rick Perry $4.2 million. That some wealthy donors are choosing to donate to both candidate naturally increases the amount of money in circulation; also, consider that donations for state races are not held to the same $2,300 limit as for a federal race. For instance, Perry’s biggest contributor donated $225,000!

Also strange is the fact that Houston Mayor Bill White managed to raise $2 million (almost half-of which are a contribution to himself) for a Senate race that does not exist yet. (White will run for Hutchison’s Senate seat when she resigns.)


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Poll watch, incumbents in trouble edition

Ohio: Strickland’s troubles do not extent to his party’s Senate candidates

Different pollsters are now on the record finding widely contrasting results in Ohio’s gubernatorial race. A few weeks after Quinnipiac showed Governor Ted Strickland crushing his Republican opponent, a new PPP survey has just found the incumbent in as vulnerable a position as can be. However, PPP agrees with Quinnipiac when it comes to the Senate race, giving the Democratic candidates a clear edge.

Let’s start with the Governor’s contest:

  • PPP finds Strickland’s approval rating at a problematic 43%, with 42% disapproving. In January, PPP pegged it at 48-35.
  • In a match-up with probable Republican nominee John Kasich, Strickland is only ahead within the margin of error, 44% to 42%. Interestingly, Kasich himself is not popular, with his favorability rating sitting at an ugly 31-30.

The race is currently rated ‘lean retention’ in my gubernatorial rankings, so it is certainly not unexpected to see this race competitive. If anything, I would be far more surprised if Strickland manages to coast to re-election as Quinnipiac suggested he might: Governors all over the country are seeing their popularity collapse as the crisis unfolds and their leadership on economic matters is contested. Ohio’s situation is certainly not rosy, and Strickland’s approval rating could still get worse.

One problem for Republicans is that Kasich does not look popular enough to win if the race is anything but a referendum on Strickland’s leadership. And yet, PPP’s results for the open Senate race suggest that Ohio voters seem to dislike all of their politicians at this point:

  • Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, both Democrats, have practically the same favorability rating as Kasich (32-31 and 32-32, respectively). Probable Republican nominee Rob Portman fares even worse, 22% to 34% - a shockingly dismal number for someone who is not particularly well known.
  • In general election match-ups, Fisher leads Portman 41% to 32% and Brunner leads 40% to 32%.

Strickland might have lost ground since January, but his fellow Democrats have improved their position.
Perhaps that indicates that Ohio remains a left-leaning state - the weight of incumbency notwithstanding; perhaps it is a reflection of Rob Portman’s dismal favorability numbers. All we can say is that PPP’s numbers are very similar to most other surveys we have seen of this race. (Quinnipiac’s May results were almost exactly identical.) In short: Both Brunner and Fisher look to be in a strong position, and it does not look (for now) that the DSCC has to worry about one candidate being less electable than the other.

Nevada: Ensign’s popularity collapses, but still remains above Reid

In mid-May, Mason Dixon released a poll finding Harry Reid posting dismal numbers. His favorability rating (38-50) was pathetic compared to fellow Nevada Senator John Ensign’s strong results (53-18). A month has passed, and with have come revelations of Ensign’s sex scandal. Mason Dixon thus revisited the state to see what had change - and the results are bad for both Senators.

On the one hand, John Ensign’s favorability rating now stands at 39-37. That might not look bad given the type of press he has gotten lately, but that’s quite a huge drop from his May numbers. Thankfully for Ensign, he does not have to face voters for another 3 years, which should give him plenty of time to improve his image. Furthermore, 62% of respondents say Ensign should not resign.

As such, the poll is far worse for Reid, who has to face voters in just a few months and posts lower numbers than Ensign: His favorability rating has also dropped (34-46). Interestingly, his approval rating stands at a more respectable 43% (against 55%), suggesting that voters have a better view of Reid’s political action than they like him as a person. And of course, the best news for Reid is that he still has no challenger, and it is looking increasingly possible that he will not face serious opposition.

No miracle for Governor David Paterson

In the latest Siena survey, Paterson’s favorability rating stands at 31% and his approval rating at 20% - the first time since February these measures have stood above 30% and 20%, respectively. I have spent enough time describing to Paterson’s collapse that it seems appropriate to point to a small sign of uptick. But the mere fact that such results could be considered good news tells you all you need to know about Paterson’s vulnerabilities.

The electoral match-ups still show no hope for recovery for the Governor, as the time at which he’ll have to decide whether he’s seeking re-election is approaching. Against Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (whose favorability rating stands at 71%), Paterson is crushed 69% to 16% - a larger margin than in May. Against the also popular Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 57% to 27%. As for a Cuomo-Giuliani match-up, the Attorney General keeps a solid lead - but he has dipped below 50%: 49% to 40%.

All of these results are just what we have come to expect, so there is no need to delve on them any longer. As I have said already, I wish a polling instute tested Paterson and Giuliani against another Democrat than Cuomo to bring something new to the discussion. This Siena poll’s most interesting findings concern state politics, as the survey finds that all the protagonists in the Senate coup are understandably unpopular, starting with Pedro Espada (12-33), Malcolm Smith (12-32) and Hiram Monserrate (7-36).


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Porter is out and Ensign is down: No Republican miracle in Nevada

The GOP once had high hopes for Harry Reid’s Nevada Senate seat, but all of its potential candidates have been dropping out one by one. Ever since we learned that former Rep. Ron Porter had taken a job in a DC lobbying firm, we got a nagging suspicion that he would also pass on the race. Yet, many Republicans still held out hope that Porter would come through. Porter had obvious liabilities - he did lose his re-election race last fall - but as a relatively moderate Republican who trailed Reid by only 6% in a poll taken at the end of 2008, he might have been the strongest challenger the GOP had to offer.

There is now no more room for doubt: Porter unambiguously told Congressional Quarterly that he would not challenge Reid, who can take a big sigh of relief as he has dodged yet another bullet.

In fact, it looks increasingly probable that the senator won’t face serious opposition. With Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki still under indictment (he is currently trying to get a judge to dismiss the misappropriation charges, so we will follow how that storyline evolves as it remains to be seen whether it will not be too late for Krolicki to mount a Senate run even if he does escape trial), the GOP is left with just one potential candidate with enough stature to defy the Senate’s Majority Leader: Rep. Dean Heller, who has long been said to be far more interested in the gubernatorial race.

As if the GOP’s recruitment woes were not enough, Nevada Republicans took a serious hit this week when Senator Ensign admitted to an affair with a staffer. (It remains to be seen whether this story will extend beyond a sex scandal - there are questions, for instance, as to whether Ensign increased the staffer’s salary during their relationship.)

On Tuesday, I argued that not too much should be read into the scandal, whether it be for national politics or for Ensign’s 2012 prospects. But it’s hard to see how it might not weigh down Nevada Republicans next year.

Ensign, who has not returned to the Senate since his Monday press conference, will have time to rebuild his image until he has to face re-election in three years. But that will mean spending a few months in isolation, unable to participate in state politics and having lost influence among Republicans. Given that Governor Jim Gibbons is embroiled in even more damning and wide-reaching scandals (including sexual assault allegations and a federal bribery investigation) this means that Nevada’s top two GOPers will be sidelined over the next year.

Not only does leave the state GOP essentially be leaderless, but it also means that Republican candidates will have to deal with the fact that their party’s highest-profile politicians are unpopular pariahs.

If Heller runs for Senate, he has enough of a profile to impose himself as his own man and make the race competitive without Gibbons and Ensign’s help. But if Republicans are left fielding one of their lower-profile options - former state Rep. Sharron Angle, state Sen. Mark Amodei, banker John Chachas - who will be able to help them improve their profile, raise money and introduce them to the state’s Republican network? After all, a number of prominent GOPers - including prominent fundraiser Sid Rogich and Gibbons’s former wife Dawn - have already endorsed Reid!

Interestingly, CQ’s article specifies in no ambiguous terms that Porter closed the door only to a Senate run, leaving it open to a gubernatorial or House campaign. Not only does this contradict the widely held assumption that Porter’s new job automatically means that he will not run in 2010, it also signals that a Senate run is just not that appealing to ambitious Republicans.

Simply put, challenging an incumbent Governor in a primary looks to be a better option than going after Reid - and Porter would certainly have a great shot at clinching his party’s nomination, helping his party’s prospect of winning the general election in the process. If Porter does run for his old seat back, it will not be enough to make Rep. Titus tremble with fear (the district leans Democratic, Titus beat Porter once and she looks certain to face some opposition no matter what) though it could certainly create a race worth watching.

In other Senate news, some amusing video has surfaced of Ohio Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher.


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Poll watch: Oklahoma remains a red state, Reid’s weak numbers look great compared to Paterson’s

Oklahoma: Tom Coburn is popular and Brad Henry is no miracle worker

While Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry has been insisting that he is not interested in serving in Congress, the DSCC is still trying to recruit him and Democrats believe that his entry would make the state’s Senate seat one of the Democrats’ top takeover opportunities - especially if Senator Tom Coburn retires, as he has said he might.

But a new PPP poll of this race suggests that, while Henry would be far stronger than Democrats typically are in Oklahoma, his popularity is simply not enough to overcome the depth of the state’s conservatism. The poll’s other finding is that Senator Tom Coburn, one of the Senate’s most conservative members, looks invulnerable and the race should not be contested as long as he runs for re-election:

  • Coburn’s approval rating is a very solid 59%. He is more appreciated than Henry, who is popular but not overwhelmingly so: 52% approve of his action, 36% disapprove.
  • If Coburn were to run for re-election, he would beat Henry 52% to 40%. Against Rep. Dan Boren, Coburn leads 53% to 36%.
  • If the race was open, Rep. Tom Cole and former Rep. J.C. Watts would have a slight advantage. Cole is ahead of Henry 44% to 43% and Boren 42% to 40%; Watts leads Henry 45% to 44% and Boren 46% to 41%.

Somewhat surprisingly, Henry does not look to be that much stronger than Boren. Sure, he is within the margin of error against Cole and against Watts, but the fact that this popular Governor is unable to muster any sort of lead before the NRSC even starts to attack him as too liberal for the state is just a testament to Oklahoma’s conservatism. (In what other state would someone like Coburn be so popular?)

In short, Henry is no miracle worker - and he is no Kathleen Sebelius, who led the GOP’s candidates by double-digit in a hypothetical poll of the Kansas Senate race conducted earlier this year.

What is most important about this poll is that it will be virtually impossible for the DSCC to recruit Henry if they cannot point to polls that show that he would be favored to win an open seat. Since the man already does not particularly want to serve in the Senate, why would he jump in the race if it looks like he will have to fight a tough and uphill battle?

Nevada: Where’s the challenger?

Mason Dixon’s poll of Nevada confirms what we have known for months: Harry Reid is very unpopular in his home state. But low approval ratings are not enough to defeat an incumbent - some sort of challenger needs to emerge. Let’s get to the numbers:

  • Only 35% of Nevadans say they will vote to re-elect Reid; 45% say they want to replace him. 17% say they will consider an alternative. Needless to say, 35% is a miserable re-elect number for an incumbent who is as famous as Reid.
  • 50% of respondents have an unfavorable view of Reid, compared to 38% who have a favorable view. These numbers look all the more pathetic when compared to those of the state’s junior Senator, John Ensign: 53% have a favorable impression of him, while only 18% have an unfavorable impression. (Obama’s numbers: 55-30).

This poll paints a pretty bleak landscape for Reid, and there is no question that the Senate Majority Leader would be one of the most vulnerable incumbents of the cycle if a credible challenger emerged. But there is still no evidence that the GOP will be able to recruit such a candidate: Joe Heck is running for Governor, Brian Krolicki is indicted, Dean Heller is believed to be eying the Governor’s race and Jon Porter recently took a job in a lobbying firm in DC. Republicans have been left touting John Chachas, a banker who is based in New York.

New York: No improvement in Paterson’s numbers

Rasmussen’s New York survey contains one piece of good news for David Paterson: The pollster did not test the Democratic primary, so there is no new set of results showing the Governor crushed by Andrew Cuomo. But he is soundly defeated by two Republicans in the general election:

  • Against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson trails by a staggering 58% to 30%! Against George Pataki, the margin is smaller but still decisive: 47% to 33%.
  • Andrew Cuomo is in the driver’s seat, however: He leads Giuliani 55% to 37% and crushes Pataki 57% to 29%.

Rarely have we seen such huge disparities between the general election performances of two members of the same party - especially when there is no name recognition differential. Against Giuliani, Cuomo performs 56% better than Paterson does! It would be interesting to see how Giuliani fares against other Democrats like Tom Suozzi so we can see how competitive Giuliani would be if he faces a Democrat who is electable (unlike Paterson) but also vulnerable (unlike Cuomo).



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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