Category Archive for ‘NV-Sen’ at Campaign Diaries

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While the Reids are in rough shape, Nevada Dems should keep up hope

Published

on February 22, 2010

. 3 Comments

State Senator Mark Amodei has dropped out of the Nevada Senate race. Despite or because (depending on your take on the cycle) the fact that he is the only candidate who holds elected office, he failed to get much traction; he was unable to overcome his lack of name recognition due to his meager fundraising.

He was hoping he could have a geographical advantage as the only candidate from Northern Nevada, while David Tarkanian and Sue Lowden both come from the Las Vegas region; but Sharron Angle’s entry in the race blew to that prospect. He also had no obvious ideological niche to exploit: While Lowden is a fragile front-runner due to hostility among some conservatives, Amodei couldn’t expect much support from the party’s most motivated faction given that his name was closely associated with a push to raise or create twelve taxes at once - a tough record to defend in a GOP primary.

His withdrawal leaves a crowded field battling it out for the right to face Reid: former party chair Lowden, real estate developer Tarkanian, former Assemblywoman Angle and banker Joe Chachas, and at least 5 other lower-profile candidates.

Three weeks from the filing deadline, I have to admit that I am surprised the Republican field remains as underwhelming as it was in the fall: Sure, Reid is so unpopular that one of these individuals might very well beat him in November, but the NRSC could make this strong opportunity a near-lock if it convinced a politician like Rep. Dean Heller to jump in the Senate race after all - just as happened in Arkansas when Rep. Boozman announced he’d challenge Blanche Lincoln. Yet, it looks like Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki’s decision not to run a few weeks ago was the last recruitment shoe to drop.

In what looks like it could be at least a 9-way race, it should not take a large share of the vote for a Republican to advance to the general election, which means any of the candidates I mentioned above has a shot at the nomination.That includes New York banker John Chachas, who at the moment has no name recognition whatsoever but he is apparently willing to spend a lot of money: As of the end of 2009, he had donated $1,3 million of his own fortune to his campaign. Of course, many unknown businessmen who try to buy themselves Senate seats fail (the latest: Steve Pagliuca) but Lowden and Tarkanian are weak front-runners. In fact, Chachas drew favorable reviews for his latest debate performance, whereas Lowden has failed to impress.

The confusion that is still reigning in the GOP field (and the ensuing prospect that the party will produce a weaker nominee than it should) is not the only factor that should give Harry Reid hope he could still survive. I already mentioned a few weeks ago that a Tea Party had qualified as an official Nevada party and was planning on fielding a candidate in the Senate race. We now have our first look at the effect this would have on the general election, via a Public Opinion Strategies survey that tests a three-way race between Reid, Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian (who seems to have no public record I can find) and various Republicans - and while Reid’s standing is certainly nothing he should boast about, these have to be the most favorable match-ups he has seen since the summer.

While Reid has routinely trailed by double-digits in polls conducted since August (and this poll makes it clear why, since Reid’s favorability rating is a dismal 35-58) he trails Lowden by a less catastrophic 5% (42-37), with Ashjian at 9%. Against Tarkanian, Reid is only down 40-39, with Ashjian at 11%. Against Angle, Reid actually grabs a 37% to 32% lead, with Ashjian at 16%. The clearest sign that conservative-minded voters are just as willing to vote for a Tea Party than for a GOP nominee when they know about neither candidate comes in the Chachas match-ups, as Ashjian comes out ahead of the banker (22-21) with Reid at 39%.

Of course, it is very possible that Ashjian’s support recedes to the 5%-7% range once a Republican is chosen as the nominee and increases his or her notoriety; but his presence on the ballot certainly looks like it could have a non-marginal effect on the race. The GOP could be in particular trouble if Lowden is the nominee: While Ashjian receives his lowest share of the vote against her, she would probably give him the biggest opening since she inspire mistrust among the hard-right. With Jim DeMint opening the door to supporting third-party bids against the Republican nominees, it seems more likely that Ashjian could hope for such institutional backing if he faces Lowden than Tarkanian or Angle. (While I am more unsure about Chachas’s ideological profile, his background as a New York banker could allow the Tea Party to play a more populist card.)

Dems can also hope for positive developments in non-federal races

The POS poll I cited above also suggests that all is not lost for Democrats over in the Governor’s race: While no one is denying that Governor Jim Gibbons is the clear underdog in his primary fight against former Attorney General Brian Sandoval, the same survey finds him trailing only 38% to 32%, within the margin of error. Voters who have definitely made up their mind favor Sandoval by just 1%, suggesting the Governor is closer to surviving the primary than we might think.

However unpopular incumbents get, they more often than not keep the support of their own party’s base, which is what makes the position of politicians like David Paterson and pre-switch Arlen Specter so shocking. Gibbons is probably too damaged to have a shot at moving to the general election, but his dismal standing among the electorate-at-large (a 29-58 favorability rating) does not mean he is universally despised among Republican voters. Of course, for Gibbons to pull a June upset would be amazing news for Democrats: While Rory Reid trails Brian Sandoval 50% to 34%, he leads the governor 47% to 36%.

The last reason Nevada Democrats should not let Harry Reid’s unpopularity and Rory Reid’s probable presence at the top of their ticket lead them to despair is that they are in a good position to keep the state legislation, which they fully control for the first time in two decades. While Democrats have a 28-14 edge in the state Assembly, their majority in the state Senate is a far narrower 12-9. While you would expect this to mean the GOP would have a good opportunity to take over the upper chamber, only 5 Democratic seats are in play, which gives Republicans little room to maneuver to pick-up the two districts they’ll need.

While Democratic state Senator Joyce Woodhouse appears to be the cycle’s most endangered incumbent, because the district she represents (Henderson) is divided as closely as it gets between the two parties. If Election Night is rough for Democrats, Woodhouse could very well lose, but the GOP’s second best opportunity is an open seat in a district in which Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1. That the GOP’s rationale for why they think this race is vulnerable is that Democrats’ (June) primary is pitting two Assemblymen against other suggests Republicans can’t expect to regain any power in the legislature before at least 2012.

Weekly update: NM’s filing deadline passes, state Senator takes on Murray, Krolicki won’t run

Published

Taniel

on February 13, 2010

in CT-Gov, NM-Gov, NV-Sen and WA-Sen

. 2 Comments

The past week was dominated by an avalanche of open seats, most of which concern congressmen who were not expected to retire. Diane Watson, Patrick Kennedy, Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Vern Ehlers announced they would not seek re-election and Marco Diaz-Balart made a move for his brother’s district that opened up his own seat. Meanwhile, Jack Murtha’s death will lead to a special election that will probably be held in early May.

A fifth state saw its filing deadline pass this week: New Mexico. The main attraction is the open Governor’s race, in which there were no last minute surprises. On the Democratic side, actor Val Kilmer and state Senate Majority Michael Sanchez let the filing deadline pass without making a move, leaving Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish in control. On the Republican side, no one joined state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez and Pete Domenici Jr. Over on House races, all three Democratic representatives are seeking re-election, with Rep. Harry Teague (NM-02) the most endangered since Steve Pearce is seeking his old seat back. In NM-01, Rep. Martin Heinrich’s probable opponent is Jon Barela, a former vice chairman of the state GOP who will need the environment to be truly dismal for Democrats to pull off an upset.

In Washington, Republicans have yet to convince Rob McKenna, Rob Reichert or Dino Rossi to challenge Senator Patty Murray but they did get a credible candidate in the race this week: Don Benton, who has served in the state Senate since 1996. While Benton is only 52, he seems to have had a higher profile ten years ago: In 1998, he mounted a challenge to Rep. Brian Baird (who is retiring this year) and in 2000 he became chairman of the state Republican Party, though a rocky tenure led to his ouster within 8 months; also, he seems determined to emphasize conservative themes and embrace the Tea Party label, which should prove risky in a state that has trended increasingly Democratic over the entire decade (i.e. not just in 2008).

Yet, Benton’s entry is significant as it once again demonstrates the GOP’s rising confidence. In normal circumstances, Murray would likely crush Benton but if the electorate grows even more hostile to Democrats than it has for now, even a relatively low-profile state legislator can upset a seemingly solid incumbent. (While it seems hard to compare Elizabeth Dole and Patty Murray, Dole would have far tougher for Hagan to beat in most other cycles.) There is for now little reason for the DSCC to be alarmed, but the NRSC does have an eye on this state and Benton could still make life difficult for the incumbent.

In Nevada, we are getting a clearer picture of what the GOP’s Senate primary will look like. After seeing his prospects crushed by an indictment, Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki found himself back in contention when the charges were dropped; but he announced this week he would not jump in. On the one hand, the months of bad publicity due to his indictement surely damaged his standing (Rasmussen recently found him running weakest); on the other, he was a rare Republican with an imposing profile. The GOP field now contains at least 5 candidates with a credible shot at the nomination (Lowden, Tarkanian, Amodei, Angle, Chachas), which makes the primary wildly unpredictable; that’s always a dangerous place for a party to be, as we saw recently in Illinois’s gubernatorial primary.

A twist: A “Tea Party” group has qualified as a official party in Nevada, which will allow them to field a candidate on the November ballot; that candidate will likely be a man named Jon Ashjian. While Democrats will hope this takes some conservative votes away from the GOP, there is no evidence this will have any importance on the general election, but it still merits mentioning.

In Connecticut, week after week the gubernatorial field looks to be in as much flux. On the Republican side, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton had joined the race last week and this week, it was Newington Mayor Jeffrey Wright’s turn. I see that I had missed Chester First Selectman Tom Marsh’s entry in the race, so we now have at least five Republicans in the race. On the Democratic side, former Speaker James Amann’s decision to drop out appeared to open the way to a clearer opposition between Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont, but then we learned that Waterbury Mayor Michael Jarjura is preparing to jump in. The state’s fifth biggest city, Waterbury has about 110,000 inhabitants; Jarjura could certainly be a major player in the primary.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the retirement and race-by-race pages. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

New open seats	Debra Watson (D, CA-33) Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25): will run for FL-21, leave FL-25 open Vern Ehlers (R, MI-02) Patrick Kennedy (D, RI-01) Jack Murtha (D, PA-12)
Will not retire	No one
Added to retirement watch	No one

Next, the recruitment page:

NV-Sen, GOP	Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki will not run retired Navy commander Kirk Lippold will run
NY-Sen, GOP/indie	Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman added
OR-Sen, GOP	Kareem Hamdy is running
SC-Sen, Dem	attorney Chad McGowan dropped out
WA-Sen, GOP	state Sen. Don Benton announced run Chris Widener is running chiropractor Sean Salazar is running enery trader Craig Williams is running physician Arthur Coday Jr. is running Rod Rieger is running

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CT-Gov, Dem	former Speaker Jim Amann dropped out Waterbury Mayor Michael J. Jarjura announced run
CT-Gov, GOP	Chester First Selectman Tom Marsh is running Newington Mayor Jeffrey Wright announced run
MI-Gov, Dem	Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is running former Treasurer Bob Bowman is running UM regent Denise Ilitch will not run
NM-Gov, Dem	state Senator Michael S. Sanchez will not run
PA-Gov, Dem	state Senator Anthony Williams added

Senate GOP leads in AR, NH, NV, CO, KY, IL but Reid enjoys uptick & Ayotte struggles in primary

Published

Taniel

on February 5, 2010

in AR-Sen, AZ-Sen, CO-Sen, CT-Gov, IL-Sen, KY-Sen, MI-Gov, NH-Gov, NH-Sen, NV-Sen, NY-Gov and TX-Gov

. 1 Comment

The week’s most dramatic polls no doubt are those from Arkansas since they suggest that Blanche Lincoln’s fate is all but sealed. Rasmussen finds the senator’s favorability rating at a dismal 36-59; PPP shows her approval rating at an even more catastrophic 27-62. Her numbers against Republicans are a disaster. PPP has her down 56% to 33% against Rep. John Boozman and 50% to 35% against Gilbert Baker; Rasmussen shows her trailing by similar margins - 54% to 35% against Boozman, 52-33 against Baker, 50-34 against Curtis Coleman, 51-35 against Kim Hendren. Those are not numbers an incumbent recovers from.

The problem for Democrats is that they can hardly pull a Dodd or a Torricelli: PPP tested a variety of alternatives to Lincoln and found the GOP generally in control. The party’s only savior could be popular Governor Mike Beebe - and even then he is down 1% against Boozman and he leads Baker by an underwhelming 46% to 38%. Rep. Mike Ross trails Boozman 48-37 but ties Baker at 39%; Wesley Clark is down 51-36 and 45-39, respectively and Halter 53-30 and 45-34.

While none of these results are encouraging for Democrats, all four of her potential replacements perform better than the senator. Since Halter, Ross and Clark’s name recognition is lower and favorability ratings is incomparably stronger than Lincoln, they would also have more hope of improving their results while it is hard to envision the incumbent doing so. In short, the GOP is more likely than not to pick-up this seat but it does not mean Democrats should not at least try a switcheroo.

Senate: GOP also leads in NH, NV, CO, KY and IL…

New Hampshire: The first public poll of the GOP’s Senate primary finds that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has her work cut out for her: Research 2000 has her only leading Ovide Lamontagne 36% to 27%, with William Binnie at 4%. If conservatives decide they can add New Hampshire to an already long list of summer primaries they want to prioritize, Lamontagne could very well pull the upset and thus give Democrats a boost in the general election. While Rep. Paul Hodes trails Ayotte 46% to 39%, leads Lamontagne 46% to 36% - a 17% differential. The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that Ayotte remains the front-runner and her high favorability ratings and early poll lead presage good things for the NRSC.

Nevada: Harry Reid arguably just received the best poll he has seen in months - and it came from Rasmussen! While his numbers remain very rough, they are for once not insurmountable: His favorability rating stands at 44/55 and he trails all of his competitors “only” by single-digits: 45-39 against Lowden, 47-39 against Tarkanian and 44-40 against Angle. Of course, an incumbent has nothing to boast about when stuck around 40%, but last month Reid trailed by double-digits in all match-ups. We’ll have to see whether this trendline is an outlier or whether it is due to Reid’s well-financed attempts to improve his image. The poll’s most interesting part is the match-up between Reid and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been mulling the race ever since he was cleared of an indictement: Krolicki has the smallest lead among these four Republicans, 44% to 41%.

Colorado: No miracle for Michael Bennet in Rasmussen’s new poll: the unelected senator leads trails Republican front-runner Jane Norton by a massive 51% to 37%. That said, Bennet’s favorability rating remains (barely) positive and he should have an easier time to improve his numbers than other incumbents since he is less well-known and thus has more room to grow. And yet, his primary challenger Andrew Romanoff performs far better against Norton since he only trails 45% to 38% - a sign Democrats would be better off dumping the incumbent to start fresh? Both Democrats trail by more narrowly against Republicans Tom Wiens and Ken Buck.

Kentucky: Rasmussen’s monthly Kentucky poll confirms not only that the GOP has gained edge in this open seat (a red state’s electorate naturally gravitates rightward in this environment), but also that Rand Paul would be a far more formidable candidate than had been expected: He leads LG Mongiardo 48% to 37% and AG Conway 47% to 39%. Tray Grayson’s leads are more uneven, as his 49-35 rout over Mongiardo contrasts with his 44-40 lead over Conway. Democrats look like they’d be better off with Conway, whose favorability rating stands at 47-32, than with Mongiardo, whose favorability rating is a mediocre 45-43.

Illinois: Conducted by Rasmussen, The first public poll to test the Illinois Senate race since voters chose their nominees finds Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 40%, a result that contradicts PPP’s recent finding that the Democrat has an 8% lead; note that PPP’s poll was conducted just before Giannoulias was hit by new questions over his family bank, so that might account for some of the difference. In any case, Illinois is one state the DSCC simply cannot afford to lose so Kirk’s early lead is an ugly one for Democrats to see.

Connecticut: Even Rasmussen agrees there is nothing to see in this race since Chris Dodd’s retirement. Thanks to a massive 70% to 26% favorability rating, Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 54% to 35% and Linda McMahon 56% to 36%.

New York: I already reported Marist’s Senate survey earlier this week, and Quinnipiac’s poll draws the same lessons: Gillibrand starts with an edge in the Democratic primary but Harold Ford certainly has an opening (Gillibrand is up 36-18 with Tasini at 4) and the incumbent would be favored in the general election against Bruce Blakeman; however, she does not pass 50% in this survey (she leads 44% to 27%), a potential sign Blakeman could still gain traction as he introduces himself.

Arizona: John McCain and John Hayworth both released internal polls of what is shaping up to be a rough primary. As you would expect, the two camps’ numbers tell a different story. Hayworth’s survey (conducted by McLaughlin) has the incumbent leading 49% to 33% while McCain’s survey (conducted by POS) has him up 59% to 30%. Given that there is still a long time to go, that McCain is after all the GOP’s former presidential nominee and that he is better known than Hayworth, the latter set of numbers is also quite underwhelming and signals that the challenger has an opening.

Governor: White within single-digits of Perry, Michigan’s Cox leads

Texas: Since Bill White’s entry in the race, Democrats have been paying more attention to this gubernatorial race but Rasmussen is the first pollster to find a real opening for the Houston Mayor: When matched-up with Governor Rick Perry, he trails 48% to 39% - a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent since he is only up single-digits and remains under 50%. Against Kay Bailey Hutchison, White trails by a larger 49% to 36%. As such, whether the general election will be competitive depends from the outcome of the March-April primary; there is no little doubt White would rather face an incumbent with a mediocre 50-48 approval rating.

New York: David Paterson still looks to be heading towards certain defeat in Marist and Quinnipiac’s new polls. His approval rating stands at 26% in the former and 37% in the latter; that might be an improvement over his low points of 2009, but it leaves him in no position to be competitive against the ultra-popular Andrew Cuomo. Marist shows the Attorney General would crush the Governor by a stunning 70% to 23% in the primary, while Quinnipiac shows the margin to be a comparatively modest 55% to 23%. Both surveys have Paterson struggling against Rick Lazio (he trails by 3% in Marist, leads by 1% in Quinnipiac), while Cuomo crushes the former congressman by 37% and 32%.

Michigan: While some cheered Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s early January withdrawal as an opportunity to field a stronger candidate, EPIC-MRA’s latest poll finds state Democrats are hardly saved: Attorney General Mike Cox crushes the three Democrats he is matched-up against by margins ranging from 17% to 22%. Yet, Cox is not certain of surviving the primary, since he leads 32% to 25% against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who does not fare quite as well in the general election: He leads by 17% against Virg Bernero but only by 8% against Andy Dillon and by 7% against Denise Ilitch. The other good news for Democrats is that former GOP Rep. Schwarz is now saying he is 75% certain of running as an independent, which could lead Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Connecticut: Democrats don’t have as clear an edge in this Governor’s race since Susan Bysiewicz dropped out, though they still lead all match-ups in Rasmussen’s new poll: Ned Lamont is up 41-33 against Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and 40-37 against Tom Foley while while Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy tops the two Republicans by just 1%.

New Hampshire: Governor Lynch is one incumbent Democrats will apparently not have to worry about. In Research 2000’s new poll, he crushes low-profile businessman Kimball 59% to 13%.

Poll watch: Rubio edges ahead for the first time, Castle and McCollum grab decisive leads

Published

Taniel

on January 27, 2010

in AZ-Gov, DE-Sen, FL-Gov, FL-Sen, IL-Gov, NV-Sen, OH-Gov, PA-15 and UT-Gov

. 12 Comments

For the first time, Marco Rubio leads Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican primary - and it’s not even a Rasmussen poll! He has a 47% to 44% over the Governor in Quinnipiac’s latest poll of the race.

The surprise isn’t necessarily that Rubio has edged ahead (while Crist looked truly formidable when he jumped in the Senate race in May, the primary always looked like it could get very tricky) but that he has done so effortlessly. In June, Crist had a 54% to 23% lead, which he maintained in August; by October, his margin was cut by half (50-35) and Rubio gained another 20% since the fall. There are still 9 months to go before the election, Rubio has yet to air any ad or deploy the heavy artillery but Crist has already collapsed! What will it be once the former Speaker has spent his money introducing himself to all voters? After all, 42% of Republican respondents say they do not know him well, versus only 6% who say the same of Crist.

This is not simply due to conservatives turning against Crist, far from it. Like so many of his colleagues, the Governor has seen his approval rating melt during the economic crisis. Back in June, it stood at 62-28; now, at 50-38. What this means is that Democrats might be better off facing Charlie Crist in the general election - something I frankly never thought I would say.

For now, both Republicans have a commanding lead over Rep. Kendrick Meek: Crist is up 48% to 36%, Rubio is up 44% to 35%. But this does not mean Democrats should give up on this race. For one, 72% of respondents say they know little about Meek, which makes his name recognition far weaker than either of his opponents’. As importantly, what might these numbers look like after Crist and Rubio have spent their millions (both are very prolific fundraisers) blasting each other throughout the summer? (The primary won’t be held before August 24th.) Their favorability rating should be far lower, while Meek is also a well-financed candidate who might have been able to use that time to air unchallenged positive ads.

Meanwhile, in other Senate polls…

Delaware: No Beau Biden, no Ted Kaufmann, no Matt Denn, no John Carney - the highest-profile candidate Democrats can hope for at this point is Newcastle County Executive Chris Coons. Always eager to crush Democrats’ spirits, Rasmussen wasted no time before coming out with a poll pitting Coons to Rep. Mike Castle and the results are rather brutal for the defending party: Castle leads by a massive 56% to 27%! Research 2000’s October survey had Castle up 51% to 39% over Coons, which is 17% more optimistic for Democrats, so we’ll say what other surveys have to say, but there’s no question that Republicans have now become very likely to pick-up this seat. Most stunning is the 31% of Democrats who say they are voting for Castle; sure, that means Coons has some room to grow, but if these respondents are willing to support the Republican outright rather than say they are undecided, it says much more about the congressman’s popularity than Coons’s lack of name recognition.

Nevada: No surprises in Research 2000’s latest Nevada poll: Harry Reid is still in a terrible position. Weighed down by a 34-55 favorability rating, he trails his opponents by brutal margins: 52-41 against Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 against Sue Lowden. Research 2000 tested potential replacements and found that Nevada Democrats cannot hope to pull a Dodd: Rep. Berkley trails 46-40 and 45-40 and Secretary of State Rose Miller is down 44-36 and 43-37. That such well-known Democrats are polling this weakly against such low-profile Republicans suggests NV is very determined to vote Republican in November. One candidate who manages small leads is Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, but he just announced he wouldn’t seek statewide office - not that Democrats had much reason to rest their hopes on him, since he is over 70!

New York: The third poll to test Harold Ford Jr.’s primary prospects is also the one to found him closest: Research 2000 shows Kirsten Gillibrand leading 41% to 27%, with 3% for Jonathan Tasini. Ford is surprisingly well-known among New York Democrats (his favorability rating is 40-13), while Gillibrand has more than avoided David Paterson’s fate (her rating is 46-26). Whatever Ford’s baggage, there is no denying that he still has plenty of room to grow and this will be a real race if he jumps in but that has more to do with Gillibrand’s vulnerability than anything else - remember that she’s been in trouble in primary polls no matter who she’s been matched-up against, and she did trail repeatedly against Carolyn Maloney over the summer.

Meanwhile, in other gubernatorial polls…

Florida: If Alex Sink and Bill McCollum were within the margin of error throughout 2009, how long could that have lasted in the current environment? While the conventional wisdom has been that McCollum comes with electability issues, the bottom line is that we are talking about an open seat race between two credible candidates in a swing states, a situation which in 2010 is bound to favor the GOP. Indeed, the new Quinnipiac poll finds McCollum grabbing a decisive 51% to 41% lead, up from the 4% edge he held in October; at this point, it goes beyond name recognition, though Sink should at least be able to somewhat get closer once she reduces the notoriety gap. One good news for Sink in the poll: 22% of Democrats say they are undecided, but only 11% of Republicans.

Illinois: Attacked from all corners and seeing his primary fortunes sink, Governor Pat Quinn is also in a bad position in the general election according to a new PPP poll. He trails former AG Jim Ryan 42% to 35% and trails former state party chair Andy McKenna 42% to 36%; Dan Hynes, however, leads both Republicans (40-35 against Ryan, 38-36 against McKenna). This is quite a decisive

Arizona: This has been one of Democrats’ top opportunities of the cycle because of Governor Jan Brewer’s unpopularity, but a new Rasmussen poll shows that the GOP is in a position to nominate someone who can perform much better: Treasurer Dean Martin has a 31% to 29% edge over Brewer, with John Munger at 7% and Vernon Parker at 5% (Parker has dropped out). The swap would be helpful to Republicans: Not only does Brewer have a dismal approval rating (37-60) but she trails Democratic front-runner Goddard 43% to 41% whereas Martin leads 44% to 35%. That’s a turnaround from Rasmussen’s last 2009 poll, in which Goddard had a lead against Martin. The shifting landscape is affecting Democratic candidates everywhere.

Ohio: The University of Cincinnati found yet more confirmation that the once mighty Ted Strickland is facing a very tough re-election race: he trails former Rep. John Kasich 51% to 45%. Interestingly, his rating is positive - 50% to 45% - so voters looking for a change are not necessarily doing so because they disapprove of the governor’s performance. This is further supported by the survey asking who respondents blame for the economic crisis. 24% say Bush, 23% say Wall Street and 19% say Congress; only 13% say Obama and 3% say Strickland. Yet, it’s Democrats who are preparing to lose a lot of seats.

Utah: Last week, a Deseret News poll found Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon was holding Governor Herbert under 50%, but Mason Dixon shows Herbert in a stronger position, crushing Corroon 55% to 30%. While Coroon is popular (his approval rating is 47-17), Herbert is showing no sign of vulnerability, with 62% of respondents approving of his job.

New York: No miracle for David Paterson in Research 2000. His favorability rating stands at 34-54 (and yes, that’s just among Democrats) while Andrew Cuomo’s is a formidable 71-15. The trial heat results would be stunning if we hadn’t already seen it dozens of times: Cuomo crushes Paterson 63% to 19%. I’m still at a loss as to how the governor hopes to win the Democratic nod.

Republican Internal polls

NH-Sen: Conservatives have failed to derail Mark Kirk’s candidacy, but we have gotten no look at the primary situation in New Hampshire, where Kelly Ayotte’s situation has seemed a bit more precarious than Kirk’s. (Of course, Democrats would love nothing more than to see the A.G. crash out.) Ayotte sought to remedy the situation by releasing an internal poll that has her dominating the GOP field: Ayotte has 43%, Ovide Lamontagne 11%, Bill Binnie 5% and Jim Bender 3%. Last spring, Lamontagne’s allies claimed he remained well-known among state Republicans so a 32% margin is disappointing but there is a very long way to go until the September primary; given the name recognition gap, Lamontagne has room to grow - not to mention that this is an internal poll.

PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent is one of the few Republican incumbents who are considered vulnerable at this point, which must not be an enjoyable position. The congressman’s camp sought to counter that perception by releasing an internal poll showing him with a dominant lead over Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan. Conducted by The Tarrance Group, the survey has him leading by a massive 56% to 27%. Take the results with a big grain of salt (it’s an internal, and the polling memo doesn’t even include exact wording questions) but the numbers are obviously tough for Democrats; it would be nice to see a public survey from this district.

An epic polling roundup to get our minds off Massachussetts

Published

Taniel

on January 18, 2010

in CO-Sen, CT-Gov, CT-Sen, MA-Gov, NC-08, ND-AL, ND-Sen, NH-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-Sen, OH-01, OH-Gov, OH-Sen, OK-Gov and UT-Gov

. 2 Comments

Research 2000 and ARG just released two of Massachussetts’s final polls - if not the final polls. ARG found a 7% lead for Brown (52% to 45%), up 4% from where he was just last week. Research 2000, meanwhile, found… a tie: Scott Brown and Martha Coakley receive 48% apiece, a testament to how unpredictable the contest remains heading into Election Day. While at this point any poll that doesn’t have Brown ahead is a relief for Democrats, I don’t have to tell you that even that survey is rough for Coakley: Just last week, Research 2000 found her ahead by 8%, which makes this yet another poll to found stunning momentum for the Republican.

Yet, Research 2000 also confirms the hypothesis I enunciated this morning, as an update to last night’s post: Coakley performs better in polls that include Libertarian nominee Joe Kennedy, who will be on the ballot tomorrow. Pajamas Media and PPP, which gave Brown large leads yesterday, did not include Kennedy at all; surveys that have the race within the margin of error do include Kennedy, who for instance receives 3% in Research 2000. There’s every reason to believe that Kennedy is drawing his voters from the conservative camp, so if the race is close his presence on the ballot could allow Coakley to shave off a few points off Brown compared to PPP’s survey. (ARG’s website appears to be down, so I cannot determine whether they included him.)

It’s hard to think of anything but Massachussetts, but let’s try to do just that: Over the past week, there was so much news to cover that I ignored an avalanche of polls, to which I’ll now get to. Now that we’ve entered 2010, there will be more and more surveys released weekly - even daily - so I will obviously not attempt to cover each one in as much detail as I did over the past year; I will however start with polls that are testing election we’ve seen little data on. Today, those consist in 3 House districts and 2 Western Governor’s races.

(Yes, this is a fairly long post… but I let polls accumulate without covering them for more than a week, so I wanted to get to them all at once to make sure I can focus on Massachussetts and other important news after this!)

Three House races find mixed results for Dems

NC-08: PPP managed to find a freshman Democrat from a swing district with solid standing! In NC-08, a district that swung from Bush to Obama, not only does Rep. Larry Kissell have a strong approval rating (45% to 30%), but he displays no sign of vulnerability in three match-ups against his challengers, leading Lou Huddleston 55% to 37%, Tom D’Annunzio 54% to 38%, Hal Jordan 55% to 39% and Harold Johnson 53% to 39%. Sure, none of these Republicans have much name recognition, but consider all the polls we have seen recently in which incumbent Democrats have struggled to mount any sort of lead against unknown opponents. Yet, not only is Kissell up big but he’s also topping 50%.

ND-AL: The DCCC is relieved Rep. Earl Pomeroy decided to seek re-election, but it doesn’t mean he is a shoo-in to win another term. A new poll by Research 2000 finds him solidly ahead of all of his competitors Kevin Cramer and Duane Sand, but he fails to clear 50% against either. (He’s ahead 46-24 and 47-22, respectively.) This is all the more problematic when you consider that Republicans are 5 times more likely to be undecided than Democrats, so the GOP candidates have a lot of room to grow once they introduce themselves, and the NRCC especially has hope in Cramer (North Dakota Public Service Commissioner). In short: Pomeroy has a good standing and he is clearly favored to win re-election, but he is not safe.

OH-01: If Kissell and Pomeroy look strong, Rep. Steve Driehaus is sinking according to a SUSA poll commissioned by FiredogLake. We already knew that this freshman Democrat was one of the most endangered of the cycle (he is facing a rematch against the Republican he ousted in 2008, and OH-01 is a district with a substantial African-American population, so a drop in black turnout compared to the past cycle would be particularly hurtful to his chances), but SUSA’s numbers are uglier than even optimistic Republicans surely expected: Driehaus trails 39% to 56% for former Rep. Steve Chabot. I don’t need to tell you the odds that an incumbent who trails by 17% might win re-election. (Coincidentally, this is the same exact margin SUSA found against Rep. Vic Snyder on Friday.)

An unexpected Dem opportunity in UT, door is closing in OK

Utah: Democrats were excited at Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Coroon’s decision to challenge Governor Herbert, and a Deseret News poll confirms that Coroon could make the race well-worth watching: Herbert leads 48% to 35%, down from his 56-32 lead back in November. There’s no question that Herbert is heavily favored, but Coroon does represent one third of the state’s population in a capacity that ensures he is a visible presence. At the very least, Coroon’s presence on the ballot could help Democrats ensure that Rep. Jim Matheson isn’t a victim of any potential red wave.

Oklahoma: Whatever Oklahoma’s staunchly conservative status, Democrats had enough of a bench they were expecting to mount a highly competitive bid to defend the state’s governorship. (Governor Henry is term-limited.) Yet, a Tulsa News poll finds that Lieut. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are no match for Rep. Mary Fallin; despite their strong favorability rating (Edmonson’s stands at 51-31), they trail the Republican 52% to 36% and 51% to 39%, respectively. A former Lieutenant Governor, Fallin is well-known and popular (54% to 29%). Democrats shouldn’t entirely give up, but the race most certainly leans Republican.

Connecticut and North Dakota won’t be competitive

From the moment Senators Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd retired two weeks ago, we have known that the races to replace them are unlikely to be competitive. Three new poll confirm that John Hoeven and Richard Blumenthal are very heavily favored to be sworn into the Senate come January 2011.

North Dakota: Richard 2000 finds Hoeven leading 56% to 32% against Ed Schulz, 55% to 34% against former AG Heidi Heitkamp and 56% to 32% against Jasper Schneider. Sure, Hoeven’s lead doesn’t quite reach “overwhelming” status, but looking at the internals it’s hard to see a path to victory for whoever Democrats nominate: There are few undecideds, including among Democratic voters; Hoeven enjoys near unanimous support among Republicans; and he has daunting leads among independents.

Connecticut: We’ve already seen a few surveys displaying Blumenthal’s dominance, but over the past 5 days Quinnipiac and Research 2000 both released surveys confirming it. In Research 2000, Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 54% to 35%, Linda McMahon 56% to 34% and Peter Schiff 56% to 33%. In Quinnipiac, whose brutal numbers for Dodd were as responsible for driving the narrative of his doom than those of any other pollster, his leads are gigantic: 62% to 27% against Simmons, 64% to 23% against McMahon, 66% to 19% against Schiff. Everything can happen if Democrats aren’t careful (see neighboring Massachussetts), but Blumenthal isn’t Martha Coakley.

CO, NH, NV, OH: 4 key Senate races, 7 rough polls for Senate Democrats.

Ohio: Democrats led this open race for much of 2009, but Rasmussen’s new poll is its second in a row to find Rob Portman has grabbed the edge. He leads Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 37% and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 43% to 40%. These numbers are very interesting because the Democratic establishment holds Fisher to be a stronger candidate; yet, Portman increased his lead against Fisher whilelosing ground against Brunner! Overall, then, the two parties are roughly where they were in early December.

Colorado: This week, we received three surveys testing Colorado, which until this week an underpolled state:

Rasmussen has by far the worst set of results for Democrats: Senator Michael Bennet trails former Lieut. Gov. 49% to 37%, and he’s also behind lower-profile Tom Wiens (44% to 38%) and Ken Buck (43% to 38%). Former Speaker Andrew Romanoff trails Norton and Wiens by the same margin but is only behind Buck by 1%.
In response to these ugly numbers, Bennet released an internal poll, which might have found better results but he is still behind Jane Norton, 43% to 40%.
Finally, just this afternoon Research 2000 released the best news Bennet has received in quite some time: Bennet leads Norton 40% to 39%, Buck 41% to 38% and Wiens 42% to 38%; Romanoff trails Norton by 2% but leads Buck and Wiens by 1% and 2%.

There is quite a lot of disparity between these three surveys, and Bennet’s camp will be delighted that he finally manages a lead in a poll - even if it’s well within the MoE. That said, it is clear from all of these surveys that Bennet is stuck at 40% - a dismal place for an incumbent to be, even an appointed one. Colorado remains a major problem for Democrats.

New Hampshire: Another tough Rasmussen poll, since it shows that what once looked like a Democratic-leaning open seat might now be leaning Republican: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes 49% to 40%. (This is roughly the same margin Rasmussen found in September.) Hodes does led lower-profile Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie 45% to 38% and 43% to 37%, respectively. This is

Nevada: With everyone now aware that Harry Reid is one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, there’s been speculation that the party might try to convince him to pull a Chris Dodd, as in retire for the good of the party. But a new poll released last week revealed that Democrats don’t have a Blumenthal-like savior:

PPP found Harry Reid trailing Sue Lowden 51% to 41% and Danny Tarkanian 50% to 42% - very ugly margins for a longtime senator against second-tier challengers. Yet, the Republicans enjoy similar margins against other Democrats! Rep. Shelly Berkley trails by 8% against both; Rose Miller trails by 10% and 11%, respectively. Only Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman manages to stay on an equal footing: he ties Tarkanian at 41%, leads Lowden 42% to 40%.
If PPP’s numbers were ugly, how can we describe Rasmussen’s? Here, Reid is crushed Lowden 48% to 36% and Tarkanian 50% to 36%! He manages to stay close to former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, but even here he’s stuck at 40%, trailing 44% to 40%.

If polls showing other Democrats doing better than Reid started piling up, the party could hope to convince him to retire; but PPP’s survey cuts that hope short (Research 2000 will also soon release a similar poll), which allows Republicans to feel increasingly confident about picking-up Nevada.

OH, NV and MA: 3 key Governor’s races, three tough polls for Dems

Ohio: If Ted Strickland started 2009 as the clear favorite, he starts 2010 trailing former Rep. John Kasich. Rasmussen finds him trailing 47% to 40%, which is actually a 2% improvement over December’s numbers. Other surveys have found a closer race, but there’s no question that Strickland is in for a very tough battle.

Nevada: Rory Reid is in as much trouble as his father, only the position they’re vying for is different. Sure, Reid manages to lead incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons 43% to 36% in Mason Dixon’s poll, but considering that Gibbons is even more unpopular (his favorability rating is 18% to 53%) than David Paterson that doesn’t mean much; the favorite to win the Republican nomination, Brian Sandoval, crushes Reid 53% to 31%! In a three-way race involving Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who is considering running as an independent, Sandoval and Goodman are close (35% to 33% for the former), with 20% for Reid. There’s no mystery as to why: Reid’s favorability rating is 25% to 35%, Goodman’s 43-15 and Sandoval’s 36-5. Hard to explain Reid’s numbers by anything but his last name.

Massachussetts: Two new polls confirm that Martha Coakley isn’t the only struggling Massachussetts Democrat:

PPP shows that Governor Deval Patrick has a dismal approval rating of just 22%. In three-way races involving Treasurer Tom Cahill (as an independent) and one of his 2 Republican opponents, Patrick is ahead but he receives less than 30% (!) and leads whoever is in second place by just 2% or 3%. In both match-ups, the 3 candidates are within 8%.
The Boston Globe poll is more favorable to Patrick: His favorability rating is a bad but not horrendous 39/50 and his leads over Cahill are a bit larger. If the GOP nominee is Charlie Baker, Patrick receives 30, Cahill 23% and Baker 19%; if the GOP nominee is Mihos, the numbers are 32, 23 and 19 for Mihos.

Much will depend on how Cahill positions his campaign. A former Democrat, he has been inching closer to the right since announcing he would run as an independent, for instance asking a conservative Republican state legislator to join his ticket.

Democrats’ silver lining is definitely Connecticut

Not only did Chris Dodd’s retirement all but guarantee Democrats will save Connecticut’s Senate seat, but Research 2000 shows they can look forward to in the Governor’s race - and also the 2012 Senate contest. Susan Bysiewicz, who just dropped out of the race last week, was in a very strong position: she led Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele 52% to 33%, Tom Foley 51% to 35% and Mark Boughton 52% to 32%. But the Democrats left in the race look solid as well: Ned Lamont leads 46-36, 46-37 and 46-34 while Dan Malloney is up 44-35, 43-37 and 44-34, respectively.

Research 2000 also tested the 2012 Senate race. In a two-way general election match-up between Joe Lieberman and Chris Murphy, the representative leads the independent senator 45% to 26% - it’s quite stunning to see such a longtime senator fail to receive more than a quarter of the vote. Not only does Murphy crush Lieberman among Democrats (71% to 20%), but also among independents (41% to 22%). Democrats might fear a lot of losses in 2010, but at least Lieberman looks to have too low support to have much hope to win re-election in 2012.

Dems get still more ugly Senate numbers

Published

Taniel

on January 10, 2010

in AR-Sen, CT-Gov, CT-Sen, KY-Sen and NV-Sen

. 7 Comments

The Boston Herald poll that was rumored to be coming today has not surfaced, which leaves us with no better idea of MA than this morning; while I did spend more time arguing that PPP should not be dismissed (this Blumenthal post is also worth reading), I agree with those who say the race is certainly Coakley’s to lose and that the poll’s release is one of the best thing that could have happened for her campaign. Unfortunately for Democrats, they have a lot more to worry about than Massachussetts since other polls released over the past few days find them in very tough spots in 3 key Senate races: AR, KY, NV. (These come on top of ARG’s NH poll, which I covered on Tuesday and which found Hodes trailing two Republicans outside of the MoE.) However, Democrats do get news from CT thanks to the combination of Dodd and Rell’s retirements and Lieberman’s unpopularity.

Nevada

Mason-Dixon paints quite an ugly picture for Harry Reid: He trails 50% to 40% against Sue Lowden, 49% to 41% against Danny Tarkanian and 45% to 40% against Sharron Angle. That latter result suggests Democrats can’t even root for Angle to win in the hope she’d be less electable, because there’s a good chance they would then find themselves with her as a senator. Here again, what’s striking is that none of the GOP nominees are particularly formidable or even high-profile, which makes their leads all the more telling of the huge trouble Reid is in. And as if those margins were not ugly enough, the Senate Majority Leader is plagued by a dismal 33% to 52% favorability rating. How can one envision winning re-election in such conditions?

This poll comes at a particularly troubled time for Reid, who is fielding a media firestorm since he admitted having told reporters during the 2008 campaign that Obama’s electability was helped by his light skin and his lack of a “Negro dialect.” The obvious parallel for Reid’s comments is Joe Biden’s 2007 remark on Obama, but the GOP is trying to tie them to the uproar that cost Trent Lott his leadership in 2002. I fail to see any similarity between Reid and Lott’s comments: The latter expressed regret that a segregationist candidate didn’t win the 1948 presidential election, i.e. he signaled support for racist policies, while the latter assessed the state of race relations. He used indefensible and insensitively anachronistic language, but that doesn’t change the fact that these two things have nothing in common. In any case, this episode will surely damage his standing in Nevada - and as the Mason-Dixon poll reveals he has no more room for any error.

Arkansas

Blanche Lincoln is sinking, according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Make of his methodology what you will, but dismissing his samples as too skewed towards Republicans do nothing to diminish trendlines, which are also very worrisome for the senator. She trails 51% to 39% against Gilbert Baker (compared to 7% in December), 48% to 38% against both Curtis Coleman and Tom Cox (she trailed both by 4% in December), 47% to 39% against Kim Hendren. I don’t need to tell you how atrocious it is for an incumbent to be stuck under 40%, let alone when a challenger manages to cross 50%, let alone when opponents she is trailing by double-digits are low-profile and little-known. Ugly, ugly, ugly.

Kentucky

At least, Democrats have nothing to lose in KY as it is currently by the GOP; but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have high hopes for contesting it. According to Rasmussen’s latest survey, however, the two Republican candidates have for the first time grabbed healthy lead. Trey Grayson leads Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo 45% to 35% and 44% to 37% respectively (in September, he was tied with the former and led the latter by the same margin); Rand Paul leads Conway 46% to 38% (he trailed by 4% in September) and crushes Mongiardo 49% to 35% (he led by 4% last month).

What’s most striking is that Paul is performing so well; it’s still hard to believe a general election featuring him could be as smooth for the GOP as one featuring Grayson, but there’s certainly little evidence at this point that the Texas congressman’s son would perform poorly against Democrats. The second striking fact is the very pronounced trendline, as the Republicans improve by more than 10% in three of the four match-ups. (I have a hard time believing that Rasmussen didn’t misreport its Grayson-Mongiardo numbers, which make little sense: Not only is is the only match-up to show no GOP improvement whatsoever, but it also has Mongiardo and Grayson performing better than their party rivals, something the other match-ups contradict.)

Connecticut

Thankfully for Democrats’ spirits, Rasmussen also released a poll confirming that Chris Dodd’s retirement immediately transformed a lean-GOP seat into a safe-Democratic seat: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 56% to 33%, Linda McMahon 58% to 34% and Peter Schiff 60% to 24%. These margins are slightly smaller than the ones PPP found earlier this week, but they’re certainly very decisive and show no hint of vulnerability on Blumenthal’s part since he very solidly clears the 50% threshold.

In fact, Connecticut could cheer Democrats overall in November, since PPP also found the party is clearly favored to win a gubernatorial election for the first time since 1986. While all candidates have somewhat low name recognition, the bottom-line is that Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leads the two Republican candidates (Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and former Ambassador Tom Foley) by 25% and 22%; Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy leads’ are less decisive, but they do reach double-digits.

On top of polling the senatorial and gubernatorial numbers, PPP also tested Joe Lieberman’s approval rating, and the numbers are brutal: While Lieberman managed to keep somewhat decent numbers after his endorsement of McCain, it seems like the health care debate did cost him whatever support he had left among Democrats. His approval rating stands at 25% (14% among Democrats), with 67% disapproving, which has got to make him one of the most unpopular senators in the country. Only 19% approved of Lieberman’s health-care related actions (versus 68%). Sure, Blumenthal can no longer be of service to dislodge Lieberman in 2012, but with numbers like this there are many other Democrats who’d have a strong shot.

Rasmussen showers Senate Dems with troubling polls: GOP leads in 5 Dem-held seats

Published

Taniel

on December 13, 2009

in CO-Sen, IL-Sen and NV-Sen

. 12 Comments

In the heels of his polls from Connecticut, Ohio and Pennsylvania’s Senate races, which he released earlier this week, Rasmussen conducted surveys from other states, finding worrisome signs for Democrats across the board. It speaks to this year’s reversal of fortunes that the best news the party can muster is that Lee Fisher (who was in the lead for much of the year) is staying afloat in Ohio while Alexi Giannoulias has pulled ahead to a lead within the MoE in staunchly blue Illinois.

Put all of this together, and we find that this week Rasmussen has released polls of 5 Senate races Dems are defending in which Republican candidates lead at least one match-up: Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania. (And that still leaves out Arkansas and Delaware, which get us to 7 highly endangered Democratic seats.) On the other hand, the trendline are positive for Democrats in some of these polls, suggesting that the party might have already hit rock-bottom in some of these states; in particular, Rasmussen’s poll is I believe the ever to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead over Mark Kirk!

Let’s start by stating what needs to be said from the get go: Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable to Republicans than any other pollster’s all year, so these surveys represent the worse of the spectrum of possibilities for Democrats. Yet, it would be a mistake for Democrats to dismiss these results as outliers. First, the consistency with which Rasmussen’s results are skewed to the right means that the discrepancy is due to differing turnout models (and there is for now little evidence with which to say that theirs is wrong). Second, Rasmussen’s results are increasingly less divergent with those of other pollsters; PPP, Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon have all recently found similar results in states like NV, PA and OH.

Colorado

Colorado is one state that has been so underpolled that we haven’t had a good idea of the incumbent’s vulnerability. This week, Rasmussen gave us a rare look into Michael Bennet’s prospects - and things look very ugly for the senator, who trails three Republicans challengers: 46% to 37% against former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, 42% to 41% against former state Senator Tom Wiens and 42% to 38% against District Attorney Ken Buck. In September, Rasmussen had Bennett leading Buck by 4% - and that was a more favorable result to the Democrat than PPP’s August survey.

Weighed down by a negative favorability rating (39-46), Bennet looks very vulnerable: I don’t have to tell for any incumbent to be stuck at 40% or to trail against opponents who are as low-profile statewide as Wiens and Buck is a dismal showing. Complicating matters is that state Speaker Andrew Romanoff is performing at similar levels: He faces a slightly larger deficit against Norton (45% to 34%), a slightly smaller one against Buck (41% to 39%) and the same one against Wiens (41% to 40%). Given that Romanoff is not an incumbent, that he can appeal to undecided voters as an outsider and that he has a positive name recognition, he is certainly in a position to make the case that he is more electable than Bennet. (A reminder: Bennet has never before faced voters in any election.)

Nevada

Harry Reid might face smaller deficits, but his position is arguably far shakier than Bennet because he has far less room to grow as en entrenched incumbent and because his favorability rating is truly atrocious (40% to 57%). Furthermore, he trails former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle 47% to 43% in the very first survey testing her candidacy; a staunch conservative, Angle is reputed the weakest of Reid’s potential opponents so that the senator cannot even muster a lead against her is an ugly sign. Furthermore, Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian 49% to 43%.

The good news for Reid is that he has improved his numbers from Rasmussen’s prior poll of the race: In September, he trailed Lowden by 10% and Tarkanian by 7%, so perhaps his early efforts to improve his image have yielded results. Furthermore, the fact that the results are the same whoever Reid’s opponent confirms that voters aren’t voting Republican because they are enamored with any of the choices but only because of how much they have grown to dislike their senator; unfortunately for Reid, it won’t be easy for him to take advantage of that fact since he is too well-known to easily escape having this race be a referendum on his tenure.

Illinois

Democrats face far less of an uphill climb here, but Illinois is so blue that the party has nothing to boast about consideirng Rep. Mark Kirk’s competitive results: The Republican congressman, who has a stronger favorability rating than any of the 3 Democratic candidates, is within the margin of error in all match-ups. He trails Alexi Giannoulias 42% to 39%, leads Cheryle Jackson 42% to 39% and leads Dave Hoffman 42% to 38%. Just as in Nevada, Democrats can take some comfort in the trendline: Rasmussen’s summer poll had Kirk leading by 3%, while the October survey had a tie.

In fact, I believe this might be the first survey to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead because PPP’s only survey also had a tie while an internal GOP poll had the Republican leading by 7% earlier in October. This could due to the fact that Democrats are occupying airwaves right now: Their primary, which is coming up in February, is more obviously competitive, and Giannoulias and Hoffman are already up on air. (I don’t believe the same is true for Kirk.) Another reassuring nugget for Democrats is that Barack Obama’s approval rating remains strong in his home state (58% to 42%), so Republicans still have to show they can convince state voters to go against their usual party loyalty.

Weekly 2010 update: House Dems get themselves 2 unexpected headaches

Published

Taniel

on December 13, 2009

in AK-Gov, ID-Gov, NV-Sen, SD-Sen, recruitment and retirement

. 5 Comments

Last night, city comptroller Annise Parker was elected Mayor of Houston on a 53% to 47% vote, making Houston the largest city to elect a gay mayor after a runoff election that was marked by explicitly homophobic campaigning. This vote added to gay rights activists’ ballot-box successes this year: Washington State passing RI-71, Chapel Hill’s mayoral race, a local referendum in Kalamazoo, Georgia electing its first gay African-American legislator. That track record has been understandably overshadowed by Maine’s vote on gay marriage, but Parker’s victory (combined with California preparing to elect its first gay Speaker) caps the year favorably.

In national politics, this week’s dominant story is that House Democrats got themselves two unexpected headaches. First is Brian Baird’s out-of-nowhere retirement announcement, which makes the swing WA-03 district a prime pick-up opportunity for the GOP; second, Neil Abercrombie’s resignation creates a tricky special election that gives a Republican a chance to capture HI-01 with a plurality of the vote. The other high-profile development came from MA, where Martha Coakley and Scott Brown won their party’s nominations to face off in the January Senate special election. In other news:

In Nevada, Harry Reid’s prospects might still take a turn for the worse. Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who was at the top of the NRSC’s list when the cycle started, was eliminated from contention when he was indicted on charges of misappropriation and falsification of accounts. This week, a court dismissed the charges as overly vague, potentially enabling Krolicki to mount a challenge to the Senate Majority Leader. While his spokesperson initially said he would not be running but reports now say he is considering jumping in. We would have to see how much lasting damage Krolicki’s image endured because of his indictment, but his entry should still be a step-up for the GOP.

In Rhode Island, Linc Chaffee’s prospects of winning the Governor’s Mansion improved this week as the sole Republican in the race (businessman Rory Smith) announced he was dropping out. If the GOP fails to file a credible contender, Chaffee would become the contest’s right-most option despite the fact that he will be running as an independent. Rhode Island is a staunchly blue state in Democrats have a strong bench, but a Lieberman-Lamont type scenario would help the former Senator’s political comeback.

In Alaska, Governor Sean Parnell (who was elevated to that position after Sarah Palin’s resignation) got himself a primary challenger: former Speaker Ralph Samuels, who left the legislature in 2008 to work as a vice-president for Holland America Line. Samuels made it clear that the catalyst that pushed him towards a run was Parnell’s support for taxes on oil companies Palin pushed during her tenure. As such, it will be interesting to see how fiscal conservatives react considering Parnell has been a protege of the Club for Growth.

In South Dakota, Matt McGovern dropped out of the Senate race, depriving Democrats of the one challenger they had found to John Thune. The party would be well-advised to field a credible contender: While Thune will be the overwhelming favorite no matter who Democrats nominate, if he does not have to work for his re-election at all he would be free to travel around the country, building a network that would be useful for a future presidential campaign.

In Idaho, it’s still highly unlikely that Governor Butch Otter will have to sweat to win re-election; but from the sound of this article, the state’s political establishment was shocked to learn that former professor Keith Allred would challenge him as a Democrat. Allred had formed a citizens group that had acquired clout in Boise, and he had a nonpartisan profile that had won him many allies in both parties. Democrats now seem delighted at his unexpected gubernatorial candidacy, which could make the race worth watching - but the bottom line is that Idaho is ranked the 35th most vulnerable race (out of 37) in my latest gubernatorial ratings.

Finally, we are still waiting to find out whether to Southern senators will face primary challenges. This week, the buzz surrounding Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne and Arkansas Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter increased, as the former stated again that he was considering challenging David Vitter and the latter traveled to D.C. to meet with some union leaders and progressives about the possibility he might run against Blanche Lincoln.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire	Rep. Brian Baird (WA-04)
Will resign	Rep. Brian Abercrombie (HI-01)
Will not resign	Rep. Mike Capuano (MA-08)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

KY-Sen, Dem	doctor James Buckmaster is running retired customs officer Darlene Price is running businessman Maurice Sweeney is running
KY-Sen, GOP	businessman Bill Johnson is running Gurley Martin is running consultant Roger Thoney is running
MA-Sen, Dem	Attorney General Martha Coakley won nomination
MA-Sen, GOP	state Senator Scott Brown won nomination
NC-Sen, Dem	former state Sen. Cal Cunningham announced run Chapel Hill Mayor Kevin Foy wlll not run
NV-Sen, GOP	Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki added
SD-Sen, Dem	Matt McGovern dropped out

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

AK-Gov, GOP	former state Rep. Ralph Samuels announced run
ID-Gov, Dem	Keith Allred announced run
NH-Gov, GOP	Karen Testerman announced run
OR-Gov, Dem	Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson is running
RI-Gov, GOP	businessman Rory Smith dropped out
TX-Gov, Dem	teacher Felix Alvarado is running Bill Dear is running hair products magnate Farouk Shami is running

Harry and Rory transform Nevada into land mine for Democrats

Published

Taniel

on December 5, 2009

in NV-Gov and NV-Sen

. 10 Comments

For Democrats, Nevada is threatening to be as much of a nightmare in 2010 as it was close to perfection in 2008 - and month by month, it is looking increasingly likely that Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer will have a shot at becoming Senate Majority Leader come January 2011.

The latest Mason Dixon poll of the Senate race finds that Harry Reid’s numbers are as low as ever. A favorability rating of 38/49 (his approval rating is probably lower) is bound to put any senator in trouble; and in case there are any doubts left that Nevadans are committed to getting rid of their senator, they should be dissipated by the fact that he is trailing 51% to 41% against Sue Lowden and 48% to 42% against Danny Tarkanian.

If it’s a sign of weakness for an incumbent to be under 50%, we reach a whole other level of vulnerability when the challenger clears that threshold - especially when we’re talking about a little-known candidate. (Note that a surprisingly large share of the electorate says they recognize Tarkanian and Lowden’s names, which suggests they are not that low-profile. Yet, many of these respondents also say they do not have a clear opinion of these candidates, which does mean they have room to grow.)

Perhaps most worrisome for Reid is that this poll was conducted after he launched ad campaigns meant to improve his image: That certainly doesn’t look like it has helped, which only confirms how hard it is for well-known incumbents to change voters’ perception. Sure, Reid’s large cash-on-hand will help him attack his challengers, thus blunting their ability to introduce themselves to voters in a positive light. Yet, he is tied up by the fact that he won’t know who is opponent will be until early June: The GOP nomination could be won by any number of candidates, and it wouldn’t be a good idea for Reid to launch preemptive attacks against even just two or three of them.

Reid will have to wait for the primary to be resolved, and hope not only that the candidates have emptied each other’s bank account but also that Republicans have chosen a nominee who’s weak enough to have trouble in the general election. Facing former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is probably Reid’s best bet. (This is a case where Democrats should be careful what they wish for, though. There isn’t in the conservative Angle’s profile to make her unelectable against as unpopular a senator as Reid.) In testing the GOP primary, Mason Dixon found Angle receiving 13%, not far behind Lowden (25%) and Tarkanian (24%); unfortunately, she was not tested in the general election.

The Reid family’s prospects are looking just as damaged in the Governor’s race: Not that Rory Reid stands at depths of unpopularity, but given that he is an elected official at the county level the fact that he has a favorability rating of 23-28 can only be due to the trickle-down effect of his father’s vulnerability.

Rory is taking the time to insist that Harry’s standing won’t impact his campaign, but it’s hard to see how the fact that the state’s Democratic ticket could be led by two members of the same family might possibly not have major consequences on the results.

Rory’s numbers are all the more worrisome for Democratic chances compared to those of Republican frontrunner Brian Sandoval, whose favorability rating stands at 39-6. In that context, Sandoval unsurprisingly vaults to a 49% to 34% lead over Reid. He not only leads by 17% among independents, but he also receives 21% of the Democratic vote; he even leads in Clark County.

Sure, Reid does manage a 48% to 34% lead over Governor Jim Gibbons, who stands no chance of winning in the general election (no incumbent with a 19% favorability rating and a 50% unfavorability rating can hope to even be competitive); the problem for Democrats is that Gibbons will not make it that far. In the GOP primary, he trails Sandoval 39% to 18%; sure, that’s far smaller than the deficit David Paterson faces against Andrew Cuomo but it’s truly an atrocious level of support for an incumbent to receive from his base.

Interestingly, Mason Dixon chose to once again not test what would happen if Oscar Goodman ran as a Democrat (a possibility he has not ruled out), but they do test three-way races that include the Las Vegas Mayor as an independent. Whoever his opponents, Goodman leads - easily if his GOP opponent is Gibbons (Goodman receives 38%, with 25% for Reid and Gibbons), narrowly if his GOP opponent if Reid (he receives 35%, with 32% for Sandoval and 24% for Reid). It’s telling of Reid’s weak standing that he gets as much support as Gibbons in the first configuration; in the second, he only receives 16% among independents.

The GOP is lucky that Harry Reid’s unpopularity and Sandoval’s popularity are so pronounced, because the scandals surrounding their own incumbents could have otherwise dominated the state’s political environment and sank the party’s chances otherwise. I already mentioned just how unpopular Gibbons is, and the interview the governor’s former wife just gave to the Reno Gazette certainly won’t help him turn the page.

As significantly, Senator John Ensign’s troubles over his affair and the financial transactions that surrounded it continue to mount since the Senate Ethics Committee is now stepping up its investigations and issuing subpoenas. With Doug Hampton continually upping the stakes in his statements to the press, it will be interesting to see what he tells the committee if he testifies under oath. Yet, Ensign has found an effective counter-argument that should dissuade Republicans from ever calling for his resignation: point out that a special election to fill his seat could distract from the party’s efforts to unseat the Senate Majority Leader. “For the people who want to beat Harry Reid if you have a second Senate race in this state, that takes the attention off of Senator Reid,” he said this week.

Gubernatorial polls confirm many questions left to answer in WI, AZ and NV

Published

Taniel

on November 28, 2009

in AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen, NC-Sen, NV-Sen and WI-Gov

. 10 Comments

NC: Marshall might be ignored, but she starts with wide primary lead

The post’s title might allude to gubernatorial contests, but let’s start with a Senate poll. In recent weeks, I have repeatedly marveled at the way in which national Democrats and the national media have treated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as a minor-league candidate. Few journalists have been as determined to ignore her as the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who did it again this week by writing that managing to answer an entire question about Burr’s re-election prospects without once mentioning Marshall. “My guess is that Democrats wind up with Cal Cunningham as their candidate,” he wrote.

That would be an acceptable statement if he at least acknowledged that it would require Cunningham to succeed at beating Marshall, which a new PPP poll (conducted for the Marshall campaign) finds would require quite a come-from-behind effort: The Secretary of State leads the primary with 42% of the vote, with attorney Kenneth Lewis getting 7% (14% among African-American voters) and Cunningham receiving 5%.

As with any internal survey, this should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, these numbers do not show that Marshall has the race locked-up: Given her prominent position, her failure to get to 50% against two low-profile opponents suggests she could be vulnerable. Yet, it’s hard not to portray her as the clear frontrunner to get the nod whether or not Cunningham runs (especially since he would have to fight with Lewis for undecided voters’ attention). This gets to what I fail to understand about the DSCC’s attitude: Even if we grant that others would be stronger general election candidates, the odds that Democrats will have to target Burr with Marshall are significant enough that telegraphing distrust is a bizarre strategy.

Wisconsin: Might Thompson’s entry hurt the GOP?

So much for Tommy Thompson as the GOP’s dream candidate! A few days after it showed Russ Feingold leading the former Governor 50% to 41%, PPP released the gubernatorial part of its Wisconsin poll, finding that Thompson with meaningfully weaker numbers than two other Republicans when matched-up with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democrats’ presumptive nominee: Barrett is tied with Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, 40% to 40%; against former Rep. Mark Neumann, Barrett edges ahead 41% to 39%; but against Thompson, Barrett grabs a lead outside of the margin of error: 41% to 36%.

That’s nothing dramatic, of course, but keeping in mind that Thompson is the highest-profile of these 4 candidates, the fact that he receives the lowest level of support is very significant - and it makes Feingold’s hold on his Senate seat look all the more solid: While the GOP is running strong candidates in the Governor’s race, Thompson is at this point the only prominent Republican who’s considering challenging Feingold.

The poll’s bottom line is that the race will be a toss-up whether the GOP nominates Walker or Neumann, and we should expect it to stay that way all the way through November 2010. While the results don’t allow us to test Barrett’s strength relatively to other Democrats (especially to Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton), they do confirm that Doyle’s decision not to seek re-election is one retirement Democrats have no reason to lament because Doyle had grown too unpopular to have much of a chance to win next year. This latest poll finds his approval rating at 29% - that’s approaching Gibbons-Paterson level.

Arizona: What if Joe Arpaio jumps in?

Arizona’s gubernatorial race looks confusing enough given how vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer looks in the Republican primary, but Rasmussen decided to test a scenario that has been the source of some rumors lately: What if Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, hero of the anti-immigration hard-right, jumps in the Governor’s race? The poll’s answer: He would be overwhelmingly favorite to win not only the GOP nomination but also the entire prize!

In a primary, Arpaio crushes his well-known rivals with 47% of the vote; Treasurer Dean Martin gets 22% and Governor Jan Brewer only 10%, with 6% going to John Munger and Vernon Parker. That’s right, the incumbent is barely registering in double-digits in her party’s primary, leaving no doubt that she is under huge threat of losing the nomination even if Arpaio doesn’t run. In the general election, Arpaio leads Attorney General Terry Goddard 51% to 39%, a margin that’s all the more decisive when compared to Goddard’s 40% to 38% edge against Martin and his 44% to 35% lead against Brewer.

An Arizona State University poll also released this week confirmed that the GOP could very well be doomed if Brewer somehow makes it to general election: Goddard crushes her 47% to 28%. The survey also tested the Senate race, finding that McCain would start with a 50% to 41% lead over Napolitano - a surprisingly decisive margin that we can’t just explain by the sample’s GOP bias since the same respondents give Goddard a 21% lead in the gubernatorial race. Given that Democrats have no one nearly as prominent as Napolitano to field, this suggests McCain might not be as vulnerable as thought.

Nevada: Waiting for Goodman

In testing Nevada’s gubernatorial race, The Nevada News Bureau chose to only run one scenario: A 3-way race between Republican Brian Sandoval, Las Vegas Oscar Goodman (as an independent) and Democrat Rory Reid. The result is a disaster for the latter, as he trails both his rivals: Sandoval gets 35%, Goodman 28% and Reid closes the march with 21%. Reid’s results can certainly not be attributed to a deficit in name recognition, so there’s little conclusion to draw other than it’s going to be though for Reid to win the general election no matter who he faces since he has to share the spotlight with his unpopular and embattled father.

But the poll leaves a big question unanswered: What happens if Goodman runs as a Democrat rather than as an independent? I don’t believe any poll has tested that possibility for now, though it would be interesting to see the results. This poll gives an indication as to why the mayor might be looking to run as an independent - 49% of his supporters are Democrats and 36% are Republicans - but it’s hard to draw conclusions when other match-ups were not tested. Of course, Goodman hasn’t even decided to run at all.

The field of Reid’s challengers keeps growing

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2009

in NV-Sen

. 3 Comments

It’s a testament to the collapse of Harry Reid’s political fortunes that the Senate Majority Leader just got himself a 5th challenger: former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle just announced she would seek the GOP nomination, 6 months after she created an exploratory committee.

Angle joins former party chair Sue Lowden, real estate developer Danny Tarkanian, state Sen. Mark Amodei and banker John Chachas. (While Chachas says he will not take a final decision as to whether he’ll run until early 2010, he recently donated more than $1 million of his own money to his campaign.) Needless to say, such a crowded primary is highly unpredictable and it’s very likely we won’t have a clear idea of who’s likely to be Reid’s opponent until June 2010.

Since the Republican nominee could very well start the general election favored to be Nevada’ next senator, the stakes are high. It’s not that any of the candidates are top-tier contenders - none is as obviously formidable as Dean Heller, Jon Porter or Brian Sandoval would have been - but Reid is so unpopular that he’ll be vulnerable whoever Republicans nominate to face him.

That does not mean that the GOP primary will not be one of the year’s most intriguing - and Angle’s entry certainly spices things up.

After compiling a conservative record in the legislature, Angle ran for the House in 2006: She narrowly lost a brutal three-way primary for NV-2, which was then open: Dean Heller prevailed 35,9% to 35,29% - a difference of just 321 votes. The Club for Growth poured in $1 million on her behalf in that race, and she confirmed after the defeat that they had not misplaced their trust in her: She took a leading role championing last year’s Prop 13, a Property Tax Reform Initiative that would limit the annual property tax increase to 2%.

As such, Angle is best positioned to receive the support of the conservative base in the Senate race. And given how crowded the race will be, Tea Party activists should be a powerful force: In a 5-way contest, getting 30% of the vote could be enough to clinch the nomination and she could definitely reach that if she can impose herself as the contest’s undisputed conservative champion. After all, some of her rivals are facing problems with the base: Lowden is a former Reid supporter (from the 1980s) while Amodei’s record on taxes should make him an easy target for Angle.

The huge question now is whether Angle can expect to receive similar support from the Club for Growth; the financial boost and infrastructure help that would represent would put her in an excellent position. If the Club passes on the race, it should be harder for her not only to have the funds she’ll need to compete with Tarkanian and Chachas but also to emerge as the Tea Partiers’ go-to candidate: If the conservative vote splits between many contenders, a more moderate candidate could split through.

How does any of this affect the general election? That the primary will be more crowded shouldn’t make much of a difference: Whether the eventual nominee’s victor is won over 3 or 4 candidates shouldn’t make much of a difference. But the fact that Angle could emerge as the GOP nominee does.

Democrats will look forward to the possibility that she’ll be their opponent, as the former Assemblywoman looks like she’d be an easier target for Reid. Her conservative profile should give Reid plenty of ammunition to work with in a state that is quickly shifting leftward: In the first part of 2009, Republicans registered less voters not only than Democrats but also than the Independent American Party!

Furthermore, Angle could help Reid mobilize the Democratic base. The Majority Leader is in the position of having seriously antagonized liberals. Unions might not lift a finger to help him and at least one other progressive blogger has pledged to work against him if he contributes to sinking the public option. As has been shown in the comments section of this blog, some Democrats profess not caring about whether Reid wins re-election - a sentiment I haven’t heard expressed nearly as much for others, even for someone like Blanche Lincoln.

Who Reid faces could help determine whether those who are angry at him remain in a position of relative indifference. A confrontation with a Club for Growth-backed contender would raise the election’s stakes, which would be of invaluable help for the Majority Leader.

And yet, Democrats should be careful what they wish for. When we are talking about this well-known and this unpopular an incumbent, it often doesn’t matter who the challenger is as long as he or she is somewhat credible. And Reid is nothing if not well-known and unpopular.

As such, his survival depends first and foremost on finding a way to improve his approval rating, not on turning the spotlight on his opponent. (I am aware that New Jersey is a counter-example, but Corzine would not be in a position to win with such a dismal approval rating if Chris Daggett was not on the ballot.) If Reid improves his image enough to lead against Angle, he should also be able take an edge against Lowden or Tarkanian - neither of whom are formidable enough that their current leads should be attributed to their strength as candidates.

Why the public option is not dead just because it’s in Reid’s hands

Published

Taniel

on October 19, 2009

in NV-Sen and health care

. 7 Comments

The Senate’s health care bill is now in the hands of a couple of powerful actors charged with merging the Finance Committee and the HELP Committee’s bills: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, committee chairmen Chris Dodd and Max Baucus and, less formally, the White House.

Whatever the merger committee decides on the public option will be of utmost importance since it will be virtually impossible to add or remove it once the bill is on the floor because passing an amendment requires 60 votes. If Reid sends down a bill with a public option, it couldn’t be removed because 51 Democrats are on record supporting it; if he sends down a bill without a public option, there will not be 60 senators to support its inclusion.

Everyone knows this, so keep it in mind when you hear talk of a “compromise” that would have the leadership not include the public option in the bill it sends down to the floor but allow its supporters a chance to pass it on the floor.

So what might impact the merger committee? The most obvious answer is the wishes of the senators’ whose vote on the final bill is still up-for-grabs. Olympia Snowe’s opposition to anything beyond a trigger and 3 Democrats’ committee vote against the inclusion of a public option will weigh on the leadership’s mind, as will Roland Burris repeating his pledge to vote against a public option-less bill.

Yet, talk of the need to insure passage is at least partly for show: no senator has linked his decision on the one vote that will matter - cloture - to the inclusion of the public option. No centrist Democrat have said they’d oppose cloture on the whole bill if it included a government plan: Lieberman (one of a few outspokenly opposed to a public option) just minimized the chance he’d join a filibuster while Pryor went as far as saying he does not think “you’ll see me or any other Democrats” oppose cloture. Similarly, Burris did not specify whether his pledge extended to cloture.

My point: Whatever bill the leadership chooses to send to the floor is more likely than not to pass the chamber without any major modifications. Thus, the public option’s fate is largely dependent on the merger committee’s ideological & political preferences. With Dodd and Baucus on opposing ends and with the White House signaling it won’t help those who want to include a public option (for Valerie Jarrett to state this late in the game that the president is “not demanding” a public option is very meaningful), Reid will play an outsized role in shaping this decision.

That is undoubtedly a scary prospect for liberals, who have largely come to distrust the Majority Leader. Despite Reid’s repeated statements that he supports a public option, his reluctance to limit moderate Democrats’ influence on the chamber would make it a surprise if he did not bow to the desires of his caucus’s centrist wing.

And yet, Reid could find it difficult not to include a public option. One of the most vulnerable senators up for re-election next year, Reid faces a dismal approval rating and the prospect of an unmotivated Democratic base: To secure another term, he will need all the help he can get - including the heavy involvement of unions, without which it should be hard for Reid to ensure high enough turnout in Clark County (Las Vegas) to win statewide.

Yet, progressive groups (not to speak of bloggers like Jane Hamsher) are signaling Reid should not only forget their help, but also count on their hostility if he plays any role in burying the public option. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee just bought $50,000-worth of ad time in Nevada to air a 1-minute ad with the tagline “Is Harry Reid Strong Enough?” The spot features a woman who claims that her vote in 2010 will depend on only one issue - whether Reid can muscle the public option through the Senate:

Reid would be in trouble if Nevada’s Democratic base is any more demobilized than it is nationally. But this ad is especially clever because it is framed to address as independents as much as progressives: It makes the public option a test of Reid’s effectiveness rather than a test of his liberal credentials. One of Reid’s major arguments next year will be that he holds power and influence so he can help Nevada; it certainly doesn’t help his already troubled re-election prospects for an outside group to undermine that claim 13 months from Election Day.

On the other hand, there is no obvious electoral downside to Reid pushing through a public option: A clear majority of Nevadans in general and independents in particular support the creation of a government-administered plan in a September Research 2000 poll.

In short: The political price Reid would pay if he is held responsible for killing the public option is superior to that faced by most Democratic senators. And that’s the best hope liberals have of salvaging a non-triggered public option.

Twitter

Obviously major HCR development. RT @senatus Parliamentarian rules Senate can't use reconciliation on bill not law yet http://bit.ly/bQyvWq

Good post on how Kendrick Meek doesn't trail b/c of massive shift towards GOP but b/c of apathy among Dem voters: http://bit.ly/btUyh1

How little pressure/coverage John Ensign has faced is a sad sight compared to the constant resignation demands Paterson is dealing with.

Richard Hanna, NY-24 candidate touted by NRCC, says: “I never really thought of myself as a Republican. I still don’t” http://bit.ly/9My2ji

RT @jonathanhsinger RT @BreakingNews Israel’s Labour Party may quit ruling coalition over settlement decision: http://bit.ly/9I7Jo0

Dems catch big break with Hafer's withdrawal in PA-12. GOP will likely struggle with a primary simultaneous to special election - Dems won't

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Archive for the 'NV-Sen' Category

While the Reids are in rough shape, Nevada Dems should keep up hope

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Weekly 2010 update: House Dems get themselves 2 unexpected headaches

Harry and Rory transform Nevada into land mine for Democrats

Gubernatorial polls confirm many questions left to answer in WI, AZ and NV

The field of Reid’s challengers keeps growing

Why the public option is not dead just because it’s in Reid’s hands

2010: Governor Rankings

2010: Senate Rankings

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