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Category Archive for ‘NV-GOP’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'NV-GOP' Category


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Nevada results thread: Clinton wins, Romney triumphs

7:35pm: The Obama camp is going further than that delegate count to try and disturb Clinton’s win. Here is a statement put out by the campaign: “We currently have reports of over 200 separate incidents of trouble at caucus sites… These kinds of Clinton campaign tactics were part of an entire week’s worth of false, divisive, attacks designed to mislead caucus-goers and discredit the caucus itself.” (Read the full statement here).
Two other important news: (1) Clinton won 7 of the 9 at-large precincts. (2) Among Republicans, the big story out of Nevada: Ron Paul seems to have beaten McCain for second place.

7:10pm:
There is some confusion as to whether Clinton or Obama got the more DNC convention delegates out of Nevada. The delegate allocation is not firmly proportional and depends on the percentages in congressional districts. The AP calculates 13 delegates for Clinton and 12 for Obama, and the Obama campaign is calculating that the inverse is true and using that to claim victory. Not that it would seem to really matter, since Nevada matters for momentum-setting rather than delegate count consider that it is a smallish state. (NBC confirms that Obama has one more delegate, but once again this claim by Obama’s camp is unlikely to succeed given that all papers will title “Clinton wins” tomorrow and that no one believes that these small early-states matter because of delegate count. After all, actual delegates won’t be voted on until end of April — and the same is true in Iowa.)

5:30pm
: The second round of entrance polls have been released by CNN (the previous numbers I had blogged were based on early interviews) has Clinton up by 13% among women and trailing by 2% among men. The entrance numbers look to be 48% Clinton to 41% Obama, with Edwards at 8.5%. The rest of the numbers aren’t changed much: Obama still crushes Clinton among the black vote (he gets 83%). And one big factor in the results is the small number of young voters (13% of the electorate was under 29, 32% was under 44 — a smaller number than the 60+ voting group that massively voted for Clinton). And in actual results, it’s 50.77% Clinton to 45.13% with 90% of the precincts reporting.

5:20pm: We finally got some updates on the GOP side. With 78% reporting, Romney is holding above 50%, with 52.6%. Ron Paul is second with 13%, but that’s only 34 votes above John McCain so the battle for second is still being waged. Fourth is Thompson who is at 7.7% and 23 votes above Huckabee. And then comes Giuliani who with 4.5% is still closer to Duncan Hunter (1.7%) than to fifth-place.
Turnout is also a very interesting story. More than 100,000 Democrats are reported to have voted, which looks to be more than double the Republican turnout in a state that is tied up at the national level.

4:35pm: With 84% reporting, Clinton gets 50.47% to Obama’s 45.35%. This is a difference of about 500 delegates (if anyone knows why the GOP results have been stuck at 38% reporting for more than an hour, please let me know). The New York Times description of voting in a Las Vegas casino gives us many clues to what happened in Nevada. For one, voters were confused and apparently some of them asked to leave once an hour had passed (since they had taken an hour off their shift to come and participate). Second, the NYT points to the Clinton corner being dominated by women — one indication of how Clinton managed to overcome the disadvantage of not having the Culinary’s support (and Clinton won the caucus site at the casino the NYT was reporting from). Many female workers picked gender over union-affiliation, and as I already pointed out the entrance polls show Clinton led by 22% among women (and by 4% among men). Ben Smith adds that Clinton was particularly strong at these casinos among Hispanic women.

4:10pm: Nevada is being called for CLINTON
(by CBS among others). Hillary gets her second win in a row and the results are unlikely to tighten given that most of the votes will be coming in from Clark which is Clinton’s strongest area. And early reports indicate that Clinton won the at-large precincts, as the Culinary seems to have done a bad job at getting its voters to the polls, organizing them and not making the caucuses seem very confusing.

4:05pm: Results are coming in fast and furious now and with 65% of the precincts accounted for, Clinton is up 50.2% to 45% (a 350 delegate lead). Clinton will surely claim a huge victory if she stays above 50% and considering that there still are a lot of votes to be counted in Clark (60% in), it looks very good for Hillary.

3:50pm: With 45% of the vote in, Clinton has increased her lead to 50% to 44.5% (a delegate spread of 230, with Clark County only in 44%, so there still are a lot of votes to be counted). Edwards is at 5%, so he clearly bled a lot of support in the realignment phase.

3:35pm: CNN just posted its entrance polls and they indeed have Clinton up big with about 48% of the vote versus about 34% for Barack. Clinton crushes Obama among the female vote (52-33) but leads by only 4% among men. Edwards gets 12% in the entrance poll, which means that a lot of his supporters will have to realign. If Clinton does wins, Obama can blame the lack of turnout among the youth: Only 27% of the electorate are under 44%, says the entrance poll, and 39% are 60 and older. He can also blame poor indie participation: registered Democrats constitute 83% of voters (and have Clinton up big). Among minorities, Clinton gets the Latino vote (65-20) and Obama crushes her among blacks (76-18).
Meanwhile with 22% of the vote in, Clinton is up 49% to 44%. Her 751 to 684 delegate lead comes mostly from Clark County (Las Vegas), where she has a 140 delegate lead! Obama’s stronghold is Washoe, where he gets 53% to Clinton’s 34%. Both Washoe and Clark are coming in at the same rhythm, but Clark attributes a lot more precincts.
3:25pm: CNN’s exit polls claim that 25% of the GOP electorate was Mormon, and that 94% of them voted for Romney. We knew that Mormons are a strong force in Nevada, but this is beyond expectations and accounts for Romney’s fantastic lead. With 19% reporting, Romney is ahead with 55%. McCain and Paul are battling for second at 12%, separated by 45 votes. (For all it’s worth, the entrance polls have Paul coming in second).

3pm: It looks like Clinton is ahead in the entrance polls. From MSNBC’s First Read: “Based on early entrance polls, Clinton has a significant lead in the initial preference for the Democratic Nevada caucuses.” Of course, if Edwards fails to be unviable and his supporters go to Obama, that could offset the entrance numbers — but there is only so much ground Obama can make up with that.
With 3% in, Obama is ahead with 35 delegates to 33 delegates (remember that the raw votes totals will not be released). Edwards has only gotten two for now, confirming that he is having trouble meeting viability and that his results could be low. Reporting for now are the smaller precincts in which voting is quick.

2:50pm: With 10% reporting, we are starting to get a better idea of the (massive) size of Romney’s victory. He is ahead with 51,1% of the vote right now, with everyone else very far behind. Romney could get some big buzz if he manages to stay above 50%, as the media would have a hard time not covering that. In a battle for second are John McCain at 12.8%, Ron Paul at 11.9%, Mike Huckabee at 10.3%, and Fred Thompson at 8.4%. With 4.2%, Rudy Giuliani seems condemned to be sixth once again and is closer to Duncan Hunter than to Thompson.

Original post: The AP ha
s already called Nevada for Mitt Romney. This happened so quickly that I did not have time to put up a proper results thread. The caucuses closed at 10am PT, so 25 minutes ago and the results appear to have been reported strikingly fast. No word yet on the exact results, however, nor on the order of the other contenders.

While we wait for the (more significant) Democratic results as well the actual GOP results, you can check the guidelines of what to expect in today’s elections and what Romney’s win could win for his candidacy.


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Guidelines to Nevada and South Carolina, with the day’s program

Busy Election Day today, with 3 different contests being held at different times. And that certainly makes life confusing for those of us trying to follow the results. So here is the day’s program:

  • The polls close at 7pm in South Carolina, so results should start tricking in then.
  • The Nevada GOP caucuses start at 9am PT and will conclude by 10am PT. The results will then start being posted, though it could take a few hours for the final numbers to be released (at the latest by 12:30pm PT)
  • The Democratic caucuses start between 11:30am PT, and have to end by 1pm PT. The numbers will start coming in then and we should know who has prevailed in the next 90 minutes or so.

In other words, a near constant stream of politial news throughout the day. And to help you decipher the results, as always, here is a quick guideline of what to look for today:

Democrats: Nevada polls cannot be trusted given that pollsters have no history to base themselves on and that the contest is a middle-of-the-day caucus. It appears that the battle for first place is being waged between Obama and Clinton, with Edwards a distant third — and that could have major repercussions on the final results if Edwards finds himself unviable in many precincts and his supporters have to realign to Clinton and Obama (which should help Obama, at least if we base ourselves on the second-choice preferences expressed in Iowa).

The pressure is much higher on Clinton than on Obama here. It looks like Hillary will have a very tough time climbing back in South Carolina, so she has to be expecting another loss in a week. With Florida and February 5th looming in the horizon, a loss for Clinton today would mean losing two in a row and making Obama that much more powerful heading into the big state contests. For the same reason, Obama can afford losing today since he still looks to be in control in South Carolina and a win there would more than offset a loss in Nevada.

Republicans in Nevada: This is the first result we will know today, and Mitt Romney better win it. It is not just that polls show him ahead so pundits are expecting him to triumph here, but he is the only candidate to have spend time here in the past few days and the only candidate to have invested significant resources in organizing. In the past few days, especially, when it became clear to Romney that South Carolina was a lost cause despite the millions he had poured there since September, the campaign invested even more energy in Nevada to get a win here and be part of the storyline today.

A win by Romney would make solidify his delegate lead and make him the first candidate to win three states (Wyoming, Michigan being the first two). He would certainly claim front-runner status and he would have no problem heading in Florida and February 5th with the necessary coverage.

If the winner is anyone but Romney, that would certainly be huge news and the victor would get a significant buzz out of it. But the second-place could also be good to get for the GOP candidates. If he wins South Carolina and gets second-place in NV, McCain especially will make the case that his candidacy is being received nationally and that he is the new front-runner.

Republicans in South Carolina: This is the big one, of course, the state that no GOP nominee has lost for quite a while and the primary that has broken so many past contenders — starting with McCain in 2000. This time, McCain is back and is battling Mike Huckabee for the win. Polls showed McCain ahead for a long time but a few surveys over the past few days have shown the race tightening considerably, making it anyone’s game.

Both Huckabee and McCain have a lot at stake today. First Huckabee: The SC demographics are as good as it gets for Huckabee, who won Iowa on the strength of the evangelical vote. If he cannot pull it off today, he is even less likely to pull it off in the Southern states on February 5th — and I’m not even speaking of the ability he needs to demonstrate at least to some degree to appeal beyond evangelicals. On the other hand, Huckabee would get a tremendous boost out of a win here. He would solidify his lead in other Southern states and be a major contender in Florida, where some polls have shown him leading.

McCain has just as much to lose tonight. However unfair that is, the press and media now expects him to win SC given his lead in polls and a loss would spark a series of stories about how not that much has changed since 2000, that McCain can only win by appealing to non-Republicans and that the base still distrusts him. After New Hampshire, McCain looked like he might coast to the nomination, starting with dual wins this week. But he lost Michigan, and a second defeat tonight would seriously damage to raise money (always a problem for McCain) as well as his strategy that is based on emerging as the national front-runner and winning big states like that.

Behind the two front-runners, Fred Thompson is the one that has the most at stake here. This is the one state he has poured all his effort in, and the one that his camp has always argued he is favored in. It does not look like he has much of a chance to pull a win tonight, but his choice to attack Huckabee could help him take votes from the former govenor and rise at his expense. Thompson could have a very strong showing tonight, but how much does that help him? Can he stay in the race with anything but a win?

Romney has less at stake here given that he left the state 48 hours ago and did not air ads in the week between NH and MI, but he could certainly get a lot of buzz by a strong showing (a strong third-place?). To be fair, Romney poured millions in the state and started running ads much before any of his rivals did, so I am not sure he should be held to such a lower standard. But of course that’s not how politics works.

And one last note on Rudy Giuliani. He will likely come in with a ridiculously low percentage yet again (will Ron Paul beat him for the third time?), but despite that he has had everything he might wish for now: Huck in IA to get Romney out, McCain in NH for the same reason, Romney in MI because McCain had become very threatening. He would love Huck to win tonight, because a McCain victory would make it extremely hard for Rudy to get anywhere in Florida in 10 days. Giuliani’s luck is truly extraordinary given how short-sighted his strategy is and how pathetic his results in the early states (even if Rudy wins the nomination I will not change my mind on his big-state strategy, whose success has been entirely out of his hands for a long time and that is still alive by a constant stream of miracles).


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Morning delivery of South Carolina and Nevada polls

Polls open in 24 hours in Nevada and South Carolina, and we are getting a new batch of polls, starting with the Mason-Dixon survey of Nevada that was leaked last night. I reported that Clinton and Romney were leading, but here are the actual numbers:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton leads 41% to 32% for Obama. Edwards is far behind at 14%. And while it is difficult to poll these caucuses, the trendlines ought to be very instructive: In last month’s poll, Clinton led by 8% so Obama has picked up no ground.
  • Some important internals: Clinton leads 50% to 29% among Hispanics, and Obama “only” leads by 7% among union households.
  • Among Republicans, Romney gets 34% to McCain’s 19%. Huckabee has 13%, Thompson 8%, Paul 7%. And Giuliani who led the previous Mason-Dixon poll of Nevada, is once again sixth, at 6%! Could Rudy get in behind Paul in both SC and NV tomorrow?

We also have another Nevada poll from Zogby, and it shows a tighter race — though it agrees that Edwards is far behind:

  • Clinton gets 42% to Obama’s 37%, with Edwards at 12%.
  • Clinton leads Obama in Las Vegas (48% to 36%) while Obama leads her in the race of the state (41% to 31%). Here again, Clinton leads among Hispanics 51% to 27%, and Obama crushes her among black voters (81% to 16%) — remember, this did not use to be the case.

As I have been reminding you for the past few days, these surveys cannot tell us that much since no one knows who will show up tomorrow. With no previous caucuses in Nevada to compare this contest to, it’s impossible for pollsters to really know what is going on. And we won’t have to wait for long, as we will get results in the middle of the day tomorrow. The Democratic caucuses start at 11am Nevada time and the GOP caucuses at 9am.

Finally, here is the Zogby tracking pollL from South Carolina:

  • McCain gets 29% to Huckabee’s 22%, just like yesterday. Romney rises 3 points to 15%, Thompson is at 13%, Paul at 4% and Giuliani collapses to 2%.
  • However, Zogby points out that there is a lot of day-to-day movement. This is a three-day poll, and the Tuesday (pre-Michigan numbers) have McCain up by double-digits. But, says Zogby, “In the single day of polling on Thursday alone, Romney hit 19%, while McCain’s lead over Huckabee stood at only 3.2%. If Romney continues to gain after Michigan it will hurt McCain.”

Naturally the one-day numbers are always tricky since they have a large margin of error, and they are a way for Zogby to protect himself if the results are different from what he showed in the poll. But insofar as the trendlines are very much what we would expect post-Michigan, the results are certainly instructive.


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New polls from Nevada and South Carolina show states ready to split

With one more full day of campaigning for Republicans in South Carolina and for Democrats and Romney in Nevada, we get a new batch of polling from both states with results that are inconclusive at best.

Nevada: Let’s start out west, because we only have one poll from NV and its results are not yet fully known. But the Las Vegas Sun has already leaked the major story: Romney and Clinton are both up by significant margins. Romney is leading the field by 15% and Clinton by 9%. The survey was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a reliable pollster. There is no question that such a decisive victory in Nevada would be a divine surprise for Clinton and, to a lesser extent, for Romney (whose victory here has become expected); and it would allow Clinton to ease the pressure of what looks like a probable defeat in South Carolina.

But keep in mind that the only two other polls released this week (Research 2000 and ARG) had a toss-up in the Democratic race and a tighter Republican race. The reason for this is evident, and the Sun admits it: “The problem is that no one — and I mean, no one — has any idea what the turnout will be.” The Nevada caucuses have never played such a role, turnout in 2004 was only 9,000 voters, and absolutely no pollster has any clue how to project turnout for Saturday. I will of course update with the actual numbers tomorrow morning — and we should also get Zogby’s take on Nevada then.

South Carolina: This is a primary, and is much easier to poll. And get ready, because there was a deluge of surveys in the past few hours, so much so that I am going to have to separate out Republicans and Democrats. Since the GOP primary is only in two days, let’s start with Republicans. And it is obvious that polls disagree very much on whether McCain has a significant lead, though they all put him at the top and agree on a basic order:

  • Two polls out this morning from Zogby and from PPP had McCain up 7% and 8%. And they are supported by the ARG survey that has McCain up 33% to Huckabee’s 23%. Romney is close behind at 20%, with Thompson at 13%.
  • But three other polls have much closer races. The most important is surely the Mason-Dixon survey in which McCain leads 27% to 25%, with 15% for Romney, 13% for Huckabee, 6% for Paul and 5% for Giuliani. Evangelicals favor Huckabee 33% to 20%, but McCain leads 2:1 among non-evangelicals.
  • Second, the SUSA poll (conducted on the 16th) has McCain at 29%, Huckabee at 26%, Romney and Thompson at 17%, Paul at 5% and Giuliani at 3%. The previous SUSA poll was done on the 7th, so post-Iowa but pre-New Hampshire, and it had Huckabee leading McCain 36% to 17%.
  • Finally, Rasmussen came out with the tightest poll of them all, showing McCain and Huckabee tied at 24%, with Romney at 18%, Thompson at 16%, 5% for Paul and 3% for Giuliani.

Just like Iowa, it all hinges on evangelical turnout for Huckabee. Evangelicals came out in higher than expected numbers in the caucuses, and propelled Huck to a 9% lead despite the fact that he was under-organized. If Huckabee manages to make that happen once more, he could very well take the lead Saturday night. If he fails, however, his candidacy will be in serious peril, for he cannot succeed in an electorate of which about half is evangelical, can he win anywhere?

Notice also that all four polls agree with the basic order: McCain - Huckabee - Romney - Thompson - Paul - Giuliani, setting up an honorable result for Mitt and yet another shocker for Giuliani. For the candidate who had the national lead until a month ago, getting in under 4% in 3 of the first 4 contests has got to be humiliating. Naturally, this order could be completely shuffled up, as all the polls also agree that most of the margins are well within the margin of error.

And now on to the Democratic race, where four polls were released this afternoon. All give a healthy lead to Obama who has consolidated the black vote and looks unlikely to look back in the next 9 days. Which makes a Clinton victory in Nevada that much more important:

  • Rasmussen gives Obama a 44% to 31% lead, which is a significant improvement from the 5% lead he had a few days ago (that poll looks like an outlier as Obama was up double-digits in Rasmussen surveys for a few weeks now).
  • Mason-Dixon agrees with the storyline, giving Obama a 40% to 31% lead, with 9% for Edwards.
  • Insider Advantage has it outside the margin of error as well, 41% to 33%, with 13% undecideds. Among black voters, Obama leads by a crushing 61% to 17%. Remember when Clinton led the black vote just a few weeks ago?!
  • And ARG pits the race a bit more close, 44% to 38% with 9% for Edwards.

Clinton has entirely lost the black vote, but Obama trails widely among the white electorate. And to put it in frankly, Clinton’s problem is very simple: John Edwards is taking a part of the white vote that might go to her otherwise. The electorate here is divided along racial lines, and Obama’s disadvantage among the white vote is being offset by the fact that Clinton and Edwards are dividing up that vote. The most clear indication yet that race is playing an actual role in determining results — just as Clinton relied on the female vote in New Hampshire to press ahead.


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Morning polls: We’re already on to the Saturday contests

The primary process never stops and — merely 12 hours after the Michigan primary is called — it’s on to South Carolina’s GOP contest and the Nevada caucuses. Two polls this morning set the stage for what to expect. The first is Zogby’s new tracking poll from South Carolina. This is the first installment, done from the 13th to the 15th, which means we will know in the coming days whether Romney and McCain move at all because of Michigan’s results:

  • John McCain is ahead, as in most South Carolina polls, with 29%. Huckabee follows at 23%, and everyone else is far behind. Romney gets 13%, Fred Thompson 12%, followed by Paul at 6%. And Giuliani is once again behind Paul (can he survive losing to him three times in four contests?).
  • Zogby predicts 75% of the sample will be registered Republicans, and as often McCain does better among independents. But it’s important to note that he does lead among registered Republicans (29% to 24%), which he was not able to do in 2000.

South Carolina was McCain’s doom in 2000, but notice that he is much stronger among registered Republicans than he was back then. Also, the fact that there is only three days of exclusive SC campaigning reduces the likelihood of a concerted attack against him. Huckabee’s problem is that Thompson is holding firm and perhaps even rising in some polls, and most of those votes are coming from Huck.

Second is an American Research Group survey from Nevada:

  • Among Republicans, Mitt Romney has the lead 28% to McCain’s 21%. Then comes Thompson at 13%, Giuliani at 11%, Ron Paul at 9% and Huckabee at 8%.
  • In the Democratic race, Clinton is barely ahead 35% to 32% for Obama, with Edwards close behind at 25%. In confirmation of how much things have tightened, compare these numbers to early December’s when Clinton led 45% to 18%.

The Republican numbers here contradict the Research 2000 we saw the other day that had Romney fourth in a muddle for first, with McCain slightly ahead. The CW of Nevada is that Romney is the favorite, so we will see in the coming days. If he gets a win here, that would be three states in his column — and it would allow him to get some of the momentum out of Saturday that the winner of SC was supposed to get.

The big fight of Nevada, of course is the Democratic caucus, and things have been heating up lately between Obama and Clinton and even more so between the Nevada unions that have dragged their fight to the courts (more about that soon). The Research 2000 poll had similar results, and it’s striking that Edwards has a high number here — he could surely have done some damage had he gotten the culinary workers’ endorsement as he was hoping to.


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More polls: Clinton and McCain rise nationally, but Nevada has tight races (plus g-e surveys with more good news for McCain)

Let’s start by recognizing John McCain’s incredibly strong poll numbers today. Combine this morning’s poll diary with this one, and he leads in every single primary poll that has been released — and there are six of them: He has big leads in two South Carolina polls, and is ahead in Michigan, in Nevada and in Florida (two polls there) — and though some of these are by small margins he has barely campaigned at all in NV and FL for now. He is also surging in the national polls and looks very strong in the blue states of WA and OR in the general election (see below). It could all go very quickly if McCain wins Michigan tomorrow (and that’s a big if; if Romney gets Michigan the GOP race could sink into further chaos).

And now let’s see the details of those polls. First up, Nevada, which is the un-polled contest, the state that no pollster is delving into given that Nevada is holding caucuses, notoriously hard to survey (the only reason anyone tries Iowa is that there is a lot of previous experience in the state). But Research 2000 delved into it today and released the following survey:

  • In the Democratic race, it’s a three way tie: Barack Obama gets 32%, followed by Hillary Clinton at 30% and John Edwards at 27%.
  • Among Republicans, it’s 22% for McCain and 18% for Giuliani, followed by Huckabee at 16% and Romney at 15%.

There are two striking results in this poll. First, John Edwards is very much still in the race here, and you be sure that has much to do with the fact that this is a caucus. Though the big problem that Edwards is facing is that he has even less support from labor than he did in Iowa: The SEIU here is supporting Obama and so is the biggest labor group (the culinary workers’ union).

The second striking result is Romney’s coming in fourth. He is without a doubt the candidate who has spent the most resources and time in Nevada — and he is likely to do so even more in the coming days now that he seems to have conceded South Carolina. The press seems to be treating Romney as the favorite in Nevada for that reason, but this poll suggests Romney does not have an advantage in these caucuses after all.

But as we said, look at the poll with a skeptical eye. The way pollsters can figure out who is a “likely voter” is by looking at whether they have caucuses before; but this is the first time Nevada has played a role like this in the nominating process, so most indicators that are available are muddied.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released a primary poll from South Carolina in both parties:

  • In the Republican primary, McCain is pulling ahead, now leading 28% to 19% for Huckabee and 17% for Romney. Thompson is at 16%, a 4% rise in a few days — almost all of it at Huckabee’s expense (remember that Fox debate last Thursday?). Rudy is only at 5%.
  • In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton has cut the margin by more than half, trailing 38% to 33% “only” while she was down 12% last week. Obama is ahead by 23% among black voters and Clinton is up by 19% among white voters, with Edwards taking 31% of that group’s vote, ahead of Obama as well — which is further proof of how racialized the vote in this state is becoming. Note that this morning’s PPP poll of SC showed no such tightening.

Clinton and McCain’s rise in South Carolina are parallel to their surges in the latest national Gallup poll, that has McCain going up from 19% to 33% in a week, with Huckabee and Giuliani to 19% and 13% respectively. In the Democratic race, it was a 33-33 tie last week, with Edwards at 20%. Now, Clinton is ahead at 45% with Obama at 33% and Edwards at 13%. And before we dismiss national polls, don’t forget that February 5th is pretty much a national primary day so these polls are going to become relevant very soon — possibly for the first time in primary history.

Finally, SUSA released three general election polls today — and they confirm that John McCain is the most electable of the Republicans, by far (just as in Saturday’s CNN national poll that has McCain running about 15% better than his rivals):

  • In Missouri, first, John McCain defeats Clinton 50% to 44% and crushes Obama 51% to 40%. Huckabee also does very well, edging out Clinton 47% to 45% and Obama 51% to 41%.
  • Clinton and Obama both beat Giuliani (47-43 and 47-44) and Romney (49-42 and 48-43).
  • Oregon is even more striking. Compare the domination of Clinton and Obama against Giuliani (52-39 and 56-35), Romney (54-38 and 57-34) and Huckabee (54-40 and 55-38) and the stunning strength McCain displays, beating Clinton 49-45 and tying Obama 47-47.
  • Results in Washington are similar but less dramatic, though Clinton runs weaker than Obama. She loses 49-46 to McCain but Obama beats him 52-43. Neither trembles against Giuliani (51-38 and 57-35), Romney (54-38 and 63-32), and Huckabee (54-40 and 60-35).

Two observations on electability. First, among Democrats. As we have often noticed over the months, Clinton runs slightly better than her rival among traditionally red states and especially in the South, and while Missouri is not in the South it has trended Republican lately. On the other other, Obama is often found to poll better out West.

It is much easier to draw conclusions in the GOP race. McCain’s strength is so consistent it is really difficult to doubt that he would be the strongest general election contender. What is striking is how well Huckabee runs in Missouri and how poorly he does in Washington and Oregon; not that it is very surprising given the difference in the reception Huckabee received in Iowa and New Hampshire. For now at least, Huckabee’s base is the evangelical vote — and that base is much stronger in the Midwest than in coastal states.


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GOP update: Nevada, Michigan and South Carolina — all next week

Forgive me my focus on the GOP race these past 2-3 days, and keep in mind that Republicans have three major contests in the next seven days compared to only one for Democrats. The week to come could be decisive for Republicans and Michigan has become the key battleground for now.

South Carolina was supposed to be the defining state for any GOP nomination fight, the primary that no nominee has lost and that has broken so many presidential aspirations (starting with John McCain’s in 2000). But South Carolina’s influence has decreased this year because of Michigan’s intrusion in the lead-up to the first Southern primary. The move to push Michigan forward was instigated by the state’s Democrats, but it is the GOP fight that their decision has transformed.

With McCain and Romney spending most of their time in Michigan since New Hampshire’s showdown, Huckabee and Thompson are traveling across South Carolina by themselves for now. But the national press is first and foremost covering Michigan, sensing that the state could either pretty much kill off Romney’s hope and boost McCain’s momentum — perhaps to a point of no-return — or suddenly revive a Romney campaign and throw the GOP contest in complete chaos.

I have already blogged about four polls today and they all showed varying results (two toss-ups, one Romney and one McCain lead, the latter coming from the least reliable poll). And now we get a fifth Michigan poll for the day that confirms that Romney could be saved come Tuesday (and the three polls that are the most reliable have him at -1, +5, +8) — though the high number of undecideds means that anything could happen in the state:

  • MSNBC has Romney at 30%, followed by McCain at 22% and Huckabee at 17%. Thompson comes in at 7%, Giuliani at 6% and Ron Paul at 5%. Most of Romney’s lead comes from registered Republicans, while he is led 38% to 18% among independents.

The Michigan campaign is being run, predictably, on the economy — and all evidence points to that being Romney’s strength. Since Thursday’s debate, Romney has been pouncing on McCain’s suggestion that Michigan will not recover the same jobs it lost and McCain responding that Romney’s promises are opportunistic and that he himself would be “ashamed” to say such things. The immigration debate is also playing a big role on the trail and coming up in town hall events, and keep in mind that his push for immigration reform is one of the main reasons McCain is distrusted by conservative activists .

Huckabee’s failure to rise higher in Michigan is a surprising development. The one thing the polls agree on is that Huckabee has lagged behind Romney and McCain and is not crossing 20%. Given that Michigan has a sizable evangelical population and that the state’s economic crisis makes it ideally suited for Huckabee’s everyday man populist message, one would expect to see him run stronger. One big factor explaining his third-place for now is simply that Huckabee is not devoting as much time and effort to the state right now, putting most of his eggs in South Carolina.

But it is McCain who is getting good news for now in the Palmetto State. Today, McCain was endorsed by The State, South Carolina’s biggest newspaper (you can read the endorsement here). The State narrowed down the field to Huckabee and McCain but picked against the former due to his foreign policy inexperience. One of the most striking stories of this year’s race is the quasi-unanimity of editorial boards in favor of McCain, even in Iowa where McCain barely set foot. He got most papers in New Hampshire and in the Boston area (Concord Monitor, Union Leader, Boston Globe and Boston Herald) and he is now also picking-up support from publications in Michigan and in South Carolina. Newspaper endorsements are never that important, but McCain has been moving to exploit them as he pretty much as a standard template ad now running in all primary states touting the support he has received from that state’s papers.

Finally, the Nevada caucuses are next week as well — and they are no doubt the forgotten story of the Republican contest. With Clinton and Obama now campaigning all out in the state (whose outcome is more in doubt that South Carolina’s is at this point), the GOP candidates have not really visited the state. And this should allow Romney to get a much-need win here, as he is the only candidate (via the Washington Post) to have build an organization here.

Just as he prevailed in Wyoming, Romney could win Nevada — under-the-radar and by default. But a win is a win, and Nevada could prove much more of a boost. First of all, Nevada Democrats are voting on the same day which puts the spotlight on the Republican results as well. Second, the election is the same day as South Carolina’s primaries so the press will cover all results at once the next day. If he manages to pull off Michigan on Tuesday and stay in the race, Romney can thus use Nevada to offset a (probable) South Carolina loss and remain relevant heading to Florida.


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Three-way GOP tie in Michigan, as Huckabee, McCain and Romney will battle for the next ten days

After a break of a few hours, time to refocus on the campaign and on the next contests, as candidates are starting to plan their strategies for the weeks ahead. The Republican race, of course, is the one where the campaigns are facing the most urgency as they have to organize for Michigan, Nevada and South Carolina all in the next ten days (Democrats only have a contest in Nevada in that same time).

The GOP race is for now a battle between three men: Huckabee, Romney, and McCain. There is no reason to think Giuliani or Thompson will manage to get themselves in the storyline over the next ten days. Giuliani is a blip in polling in South Carolina and Michigan and he will hardly campaign there; and it seems unlikely Thompson will right his sinking ship by January 19th.

To start off this exciting week, we get a Michigan poll from the Rossman group which gives us a good indicator of where things stood pre-New Hampshire (poll taken January 6th-7th)

  • Mike Huckabee gets 23%, Mitt Romney 21% and John McCain 18%. Giuliani is behind at 8% with Fred Thompson at 4%.

This conforms to the conventional wisdom of who the big three candidates in Michigan, though the race is being portrayed as a Romney-McCain contest right now. Before Huckabee supporters get too excited, indications for now are that Huckabee is not looking to make a major push in the state.

Indeed, that is the major question: how much money every candidate has right now, and where they are willing to invest it. Huckabee appears to be going for South Carolina, though if the campaign realizes they have a chance to pull Michigan off and follow it up with South Carolina within 4 days, don’t be surprised if they commit their candidate to Michigan.

The surprise is coming from the Romney campaign, which appears to be running no more ads in both Florida and South Carolina; at this point it is likely that Romney is relying heavily on his own money and how much more of that is he willing to spend without tangible results? A third loss in Michigan combined with Huckabee’s current strength in South Carolina would make a come-back very unlikely.

As for John McCain, he faces another kind of challenge: To get an organization, staffers and money, and fast. Romney has already started absentee-ballot programs in Florida and February 5th states and Huckabee has been making his presence known in South Carolina for a while. McCain, meanwhile, has campaigned almost exclusively in New Hampshire and all evidence is that he has very little money left. His victory yesterday will bring him some big fund-raising totals, but he needs to get that going soon, hire staffers and hit the big states that are looming. Contrary to New Hampshire, he cannot win California, Florida, Texas or Illinois on the strength of his campaign style. He has to run ads and get out the vote.

So until Florida comes in focus and the press evaluates whether it’s worth covering Giuliani again, it’s Romney-Huckabee-McCain for the next 10 days.


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Saturday polls: Huckabee ahead in Michigan, not quite in Nevada

  • Nevada: Clinton and Romney

Clinton and Romney lead in Nevada according to a new ARG poll, though things are much closer than they were in October:

  • Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is first with 29%, followed by… Huckabee at 23% and Giuliani at 17%. In October, Giuliani was at 31%, Romney at 30% and Huckabee at… 2%. That’s right, a 1000% increase for Mike Huckabee, mostly at Giuliani’s expense.
  • Among Democrats, Clinton comes in at 45%, followed by Obama at 18% and Edwards at 14%. This is a relative tightening since October where Clinton got to 51% — but she has still improved since the beginning of the campaign, where she did not even reach 40%.

Nevada has been forgotten by most everyone, but don’t forget that the voting is on January 19th. For Democrats, it will be the only state between New Hampshire on the 8th and South Carolina on the 26th, so it could have a major impact. For Republicans, it will come after Michigan so its importance will certainly be muddied — but given that Huckabee’s surge is as shocking here than anywhere else, it looks unlikely that the caucuses here will stop any momentum he might get in Iowa.

  • Michigan: More of the Huckabee surge

Huckabee has also taken the lead in Michigan in the latest Rasmussen poll, with 21% followed by Romney’s 20% and Giuliani’s 19%. All others are in single-digits.

Michigan was supposed to be a Romney state, since his father has been Governor here. It was going to be the state in which Romney would capitalize on early state wins and catapult his chances to the nomination. Well, is there anywhere without Huckabee ruining anyone’s plans at this point?

  • Here is a poll with Huckabee trailing!

Rasmussen’s general election poll pitting Edwards against some Republicans today has Huckabee polling not as strongly as Rudy Giuliani: Giuliani and Edwards tie at 44%, with Edwards leading Huckabee 44% to 40%.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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