Category Archive for ‘NE-02’ at Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'NE-02' Category

Recruitment also picking up in House races

Published

on July 9, 2009

in AL-03, FL-24, MI-09, NE-02, OH-15 and VA-02

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The past few days have brought an avalanche of high-profile decisions in Senate and Governor’s races, which has led me to neglect the latest developments at the House level. Yesterday, the DCCC got excellent news when IL-10 opened up because of Mark Kirk’s statewide run. This is exactly the type of district the party want to conquer: Since it clearly leans blue, a Democratic representative would likely be a reliable vote for the leadership’s priorities and would probably be safe as long as he/she wants to keep the seat.

As such, Kirk’s retirement more than compensates worrisome news Democrats might be getting in vulnerable districts of their own; the same will be true of Jim Gerlach’s PA-06 if he announces a gubernatorial run. Add to that the relief Democrats must be feeling not to have to defend an open seat in South Dakota, and we can say the week hasn’t been half as tough for the DCCC than for the DSCC. That said, Republicans have been scoring plenty of recruitment coups of their own, extending their recent Senate streak down-ballot.

In OH-15, Kilroy will have to up her game

In a district that voted for Obama by 9%, Mary Jo Kilroy underperformed not only in 2008 but also in 2006: Her unexpected defeat against incumbent Deborah Pryce was one of the few bad surprises Democrats received that night. Two years later, Kilroy was favored to win the open seat but only after a month of counting did she take the lead and win the race. Now, her 2008 opponent has announced he’ll seek a rematch: Steve Stivers might no longer be a state Senator, but he’ll make for a credible candidate who already proved himself on the trail and could use his past supporter lists to raise money and build a solid campaign infrastructure.

Yes, Kilroy will have the advantage of running as the incumbent. After two cycles in which she underperformed relatively to other Democrats, perhaps that will help her get the district’s Dem-leaning voters to finally rally by her side. But Kilroy will no longer be boosted by the national environment; she’ll have to reach 50% without relying on the GOP’s toxic brand and on Obama’s coattails. In particular, she could be at risk if turnout drops among the district’s substantial African-American population or if independents turn against the White House.

GOP field in FL-24 gets crowded

What does it say about GOP confidence that they can defeat freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas that at least 3 credible Republicans are vying for a shot at the nomination? In a district McCain won by 2%, the NRCC had been touting the candidacy of Winter Park City Councilor Karen Diebel but it now has two new contenders to put forward, both of whom would presumably be a tad stronger than Diebel: state Rep. Dorothy Hukill announced her candidacy earlier this week and state Rep. Sandy Adams has also made it clear she will jump in the race.

Sandy Adams has been in the legislature since 2002. Hukill is the former Mayor of Port Orange, a decently sized seat that should make for a good geographical base, and she occupies Kosmas’s former seat in the state legislature; she’ll surely tout the fact that she’s the first Republican to hold that district as evidence of her electability. One problem Republicans might face, however, is that Florida is one state in which divisive intra-party battles can be damaging: Primaries are held at a late August date, which leaves little time for a nominee to prepare for the general election. Meanwhile, Kosmas will be able to prepare herself for the challenge and stock up cash; she raised a strong $350,000 in the second-quarter.

MI-09, VA-02: Other new Republican candidates

Democrats might want to be careful about MI-09, based around blue-collar Oakland County. This is the type of district where Democrats could be hurting if Reagan Democrats, who returned to the party’s fold in 2008, now turned against the White House because of the recession. The district voted for Obama by 13%, but it also twice went for George Bush and Rep. Gary Peters is a freshman. Former congressman Knollenberg’s chief of staff Paul Welday and former state Rep. Andrew Raczkowski are already in the running. Neither is a top-tier contender, but both have enough connections to potentially mount a competitive race (Raczkowski ran for Senate in 2002, only to be crushed by Carl Levin).

In Virginia, we know that the 2nd district will be a top GOP target so it’s worth the Republican field. This week, automobile dealer Scott Rigell announced he would challenge freshman Rep. Glenn Nye; he also said he had the support of prominent Republicans like the congresswoman Nye defeated in 2008, Thelma Drake. So will Nye end up with Rigell as his opponent? The president of Freedom Automotive is the type of wealthy political novice who can get nowhere on the trail but who can also catch fire by convincing voters that business experience is what they need and by self-funding his way to a competitive position.

Some good news for the DCCC in Nebraska

In one of their biggest 2008 heart-breakers, Democrats failed to defeat Rep. Lee Terry by just 4%. Yet, Obama pulled off the unthinkable feat of winning the typically staunchly Republican district and that has given Democrats confidence that they might finally be able to overthrow Terry in 2010. Sure, the environment will not be as favorable and there will be no Obama coattails, but the DCCC believes it has found a top-tier candidate: state Senator Tom White, who represents parts of Omaha in the unicameral legislature, formed an exploratory committee earlier this week.

While White seems too conservative to excite Democrats nationwide (he is pro-life and he championed the elimination of the marriage penalty and of the estate tax), his exact profile remains to be determined. A former civil rights attorney, he attracted attention for embracing a more partisan positioning than is typical for Nebraska Democrats. (Note that it’s hard to know how to describe NE-02 since it went for Obama but also for Bush by 22%.)

Guilty of dismal fundraising, NRCC spent whatever money it had well

Published

Taniel

on November 21, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-03, AZ-08, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-02, CT-04, FL-08, FL-21, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, IN-09, KY-02, KY-03, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NRCC, NV-03, NY-24, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-16, OR-05, PA-03, PA-11, TX-22, VA-02, VA-05, WI-08 and WY-AL

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Oklahoma Rep. Tom Cole briefly flirted with another stint as NRCC Chairman but decided not to oppose the candidacy of Texas Rep. Pete Sessions. The GOP’s campaign committee will thus start the 2010 battle with new leadership, eager to recover after two disastrous cycles that saw Democrats pick up more than 50 seats.

To mark the end of Cole’s rule, it seems appropriate to take a look back at the past two years - recruitment, fundraising, expenditures - and pinpoint a few areas Sessions will have to improve.

—

What is particularly depressing for the GOP is that its recruitment was not that terrible. For one, the NRCC had managed to recruit a number of top challengers to freshmen incumbents: Jim Sullivan in CT-02, Dean Adler in CA-11 or Tom Bee in AZ-08 were all highly touted early in the cycle. Lou Barletta in PA-11, Melissa Hart in PA-04, Mike Sodrel in IN-09, Anne Northup in KY-03 and Jeb Bradley in NH-01 were also huge threats. The NRCC similarly fielded unexpectedly strong contenders in many GOP-held open seats (Darren White in NM-01, for instance).

Needless to say, all the candidates on this list lost on November 4th; some of them had even completely disappeared from our radar screen - quite a stunning development given their early high-profile. Given the pro-Democratic political environment, however, non-incumbent Republicans had practically no hope of victory - and we all treated them as such.

—

The NRCC’s huge problem, of course, was its dismal fundraising performance that left the committee in an extremely precarious financial position. This forced the NRCC to pull the plug on some of its top challengers and then make even more painful decisions as to which incumbents it should abandon. It will not be easy for Sessions to do a better job: It is extremely unlikely that Republicans will regain control of the House in 2010, which means that lobbyists and donors are likely to keep filling Democratic coffers. This should guarantee that the DCCC enjoys yet another cycle of financial dominance.

—

Within this context of budgetary restrictions, it is worth taking a look at the NRCC’s fall expenditures to test whether Cole’s team made the right set of choices with whatever little money they had in hand.

The snubbed districts: First of all, here is the list of high-profile districts in which the NRCC invested nothing: AZ-03, CT-04, CA-04, IL-10, IN-09, KY-03, MD-01, MI-09, NC-08, NM-01, NM-02, OH-16, OR-05, PA-04. It is worth adding CO-04 to the list, as the NRCC pulled the plug on Rep. Musgrave two weeks before the election.

Some of these reflect very good calls on the NRCC’s part, particularly in AZ-03. Democrats made a lot of noise about that race, and the DCCC poured in about $2 million; yet, the NRCC did not take the bait and Rep. Shadegg prevailed by double-digits. Similarly, the NRCC was right to estimate that Reps. Knollenberg, Hayes and Musgrave as well as open seat candidates in NM-01, NM-02 and OH-16 were in particularly bad shape. Democrats picked-up all of these seats, and none of them were close. Finally, good for the NRCC to not delude itself into thinking that it could defeat Democratic incumbents in KY-03, IN-09 and PA-04.

However, the GOP’s refusal to fund McClintock in CA-04 and Harris in MD-01 was most definitely a mistake. Harris lost by 1% and McClintock’s race is still undecided. Both districts are heavily conservative, so there was no possible blow back for national Republicans getting involved (unlike, say, in CT-04).

Defensible investments: As for the races they did fund, the NRCC’s decisions are a mix between golden investments and wasted money. While the GOP lost AL-02, AL-05, FL-08, FL-25, ID-01, MI-07, NH-01, NJ-03, NY-29, OH-01, PA-03, PA-11, VA-02 and WI-08, for instance, it seems hard to argue with the NRCC’s determination to defend these seats, all of which ended up being relatively close. The NRCC should however be faulted for not having invested more in some of them (ID-01 and VA-02, in particular). In some of these districts, the GOP invested significant sums (more than $1 million each in MI-07 and OH-01, for instance) but the DCCC simply had enough money to always outspend its counterpart.

Similarly, the NRCC’s decision to heavily defend KY-02, MN-03, MO-09, NE-02, NJ-07 and WY-AL were an important factor in huge Election Day saves - and the committee’s investments in KS-02, LA-06 and TX-22 (more than $1 million in the latter) helped Republican challengers scored pick-ups. (The NRCC should have been a bit more aggressive in Kansas, even though Lynn Jenkins did end up winning.)

Mistakes: All in all, there were few obvious mistakes in the GOP’s investments - except the largely unnecessary $600,000 spent in MO-06, the decision to go after Rep. Murtha with half-a-million dollars at the last minute and the committee’s determination to help Rep. Porter in NV-03. Another small mistake was CO-04: Even though they did end up abandoning Rep. Musgrave, they first spent nearly $900,000 on a seat that leaned towards a Democratic pick-up early in the fall - but perhaps not enough to justify an NRCC snub in a what is still a conservative district.

The NRCC is guilty of a number of other miscalls, but it is hard to blame them given that the DCCC also miscalculated in the same same districts. Perhaps the biggest such mistake occurred in NY-24, where Democratic incumbent Arcuri won an extremely tight race in a district absolutely no one was paying attention to.

The second biggest mistake was FL-21, a GOP-held district everyone thought was highly competitive and in which the NRCC spent more than $1.5 million. Rep. Diaz-Balart ended up winning by 16% - but the DCCC had invested considerable sums as well, as both parties believed that Diaz-Balart was endangered. Similarly, the GOP spent more than $300,000 defending IN-03 and more than $600,000 in NY-26. Neither race was tight on Election Night; yet, the DCCC wasted much more money on those two districts so the mistake here belongs to Democrats.

Finally, the NRCC rushed into VA-05 much too late, spending more $140,000 at the last minute to save Rep. Goode (the race has not been called yet, but it appears that Goode will go down by a few hundred votes); few people saw Perriello has a big threat to Goode - and the DCCC’s expenditures suggest they had not either. Provided he remains in the lead, that makes Perriello’s into this cycle’s Shea-Porter and Loebsack.

Rating changes, House edition: Final house cleaning

Published

Taniel

on November 4, 2008

in AZ-05, CA-50, ID-01, IN-08, MN-03, NE-02, NH-02, NM-02, OH-18 and PA-08

. 1 Comment

This is not the time for grand narratives about the state of the House battle: I offered one in my preceding rating updates on Saturday, but some final house-cleaning was in order: Too many once-competitive but now-safe Democratic seats had been left in the list, and I also moved two new GOP-held seats to the lean Democratic column (though another one moved back to the toss-up category).

We will soon know the breakdown of the 111th Congress. Surprises surely await us, but there is no question Democrats will be very disappointed if they net less than 20 seats. Who could have predicted just six weeks ago that only losing a net 20 seats would be a great moral victory for Republicans?

Safe Democratic: 211 (+4)
Likely/Safe Democratic: 231 (+1)
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 246 (+1)
Toss-ups: 26
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 163 (-1)
Likely/Safe Republican: 149 (-1)
Safe Republican: 124 (-2)

AZ-05, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: Democrat Harry Mitchell won a late-breaking race in 2006, and Republicans immediately put him on their target list. But the environment is simply too toxic for the GOP for Mitchell to be seriously endangered. Taking no risks, the DCCC has invested more than $1.3 million in the district, while Republican nominee David Schweikert has gotten no national help; the Club for Growth, which had endorsed him, has barely spent any money on his behalf.

CA-50, likely Republican to lean Republican: Republicans are increasingly nervous about some of the districts they hold in California, as they fear that Barack Obama’s coattails combined with weak Republican turnout could boost Democratic candidates in CA-03, CA-26, CA-46 and CA-50. The DCCC has invested in none of these districts, but an upset cannot be ruled out in any. CA-50 looks the most promising for Democrats; Rep. Bilbray barely prevailed in a high-profile special election back in 2006.

ID-01, toss-up to lean Democratic: That such a conservative district could find itself in the lean take-over column is entirely due to Rep. Bill Sali, who is despised but much of his state’s GOP establishment - as well as by many voters. Sali is a controversial provocateur who gained national headlines recently by heckling his opponent’s chief of staff while he was delivering a television interview. The latest polls show Democratic nominee Walt Minnick has a slight lead. But this is Idaho, so no Republican incumbent will ever be a clear underdog and the race remains highly competitive.

IN-08, likely Democratic to safe Democratic: The Bloody Eight is known for tight races, but freshman Rep. Ellsworth (who crushed an incumbent Republican by 22% in 2006) has little to fear against Republican nominee Greg Goode. Ellsworth was expected to at least have to swim counter-current in a presidential year, but Barack Obama’s stunning gains in the Hoosier State give Ellsworth cover.

MN-03, lean Democratic to toss-up: Barack Obama managed to avoid a racialization of the presidential campaign, but this House race has been marked by repeated controversies over the GOP’s treatment of Aswhin Madia’s ethnicity - first in statements by Republican officials about Erik Paulsen “fitting the demographics of the district” and then in a polemic over whether the GOP darkened Madia’s skin color in a campaign commercial. While such controversies can certainly hurt Republicans, minority candidates rarely benefit when racial cues are injected in a race. Both parties have invested huge resources in the district, and the SEIU has also been helping Madia. SUSA’s two latest polls have shown Paulsen erase a deficit and move into an edge, however, and the district has a slight Republican lean which Madia will have to overcome.

NE-02, lean Republican to toss-up: GOP Rep. Lee Terry did not take the threat represented by Jim Esch seriously enough for far too long, while Esch has been campaigning for years now (he lost to Terry by 10% in 2006). Both parties have invested more than $500,000 in the district, but Esch will be able to rely on Barack Obama’s organization in a district whose stand-alone electoral vote Obama is trying to win. Terry has been distributing mailers targeting “Terry-Obama” voters, a remarkable admission that Democrats are making gains in Omaha.

NH-02, likely Democratic to safe Democratic: Republican nominee Jennifer Horn has had little money to spend against Rep. Hodes, and state Republicans have focused whatever fire power they have at protecting Sen. Sununu and unseating Rep. Shea-Porter. Rep. Hodes will be a Republican target in cycles to come, but it looks like he will coast to re-election today.

NM-02, toss-up to lean Democratic: This is a conservative district, but Barack Obama’s gains in the state will hep Harry Teague (in this district) and Martin Heinrich (in NM-01). But a dominant dynamic in this district has been money: Both nominees are wealthy, but Teague has donated far more to his campaign and has benefited from a high $1,5 million the DCCC has poured in the race. By contrast, not only has the NRCC failed to invest a dime in the district, but Ed Tinsley himself has stopped airing advertisments, meaning that the GOP’s camp has gone dark in the district.

OH-18, likely Democratic to safe Democratic: Who would have thought two years ago that Republicans would barely attempt to contest one of the most Republican seats represented by a Democrat? Zach Space won this race in 2006 in bizarre conditions, as Rep. Ney was indicted and retired in the last stretch before the election. Republican nominee would already not have had the stature of a serious contender in a neutral environment - let alone in one that favors Democrats.

PA-08, likely Democratic to safe Democratic: Rep. Patrick Murphy won one of the tightest states in the country in 2008, and Republicans were vowing to contest the race. Retired Marines lieutenant Colonel Tom Manion might have made this a competitive race in another year, but with no help from the RNCC, he is unlikely to topple a Democrat incumbent in a district that voted for Al Gore and John Kerry.

And also, two new seats are added to the ratings: CA-45 and MI-08. Neither was talked about until this past week, and neither Rep. Bono Mack nor Rep. Rogers are likely to lose their seats. But given that Republicans are very worried about their prospects in California and in Michigan, a (truly stunning) upset cannot be ruled out. And while there are a lot of incumbents that are unlikely to lose in my ratings currently, we will see some highly unexpected results tomorrow (who thought IA-02 or NH-01 could fall in 2006).

Full ratings here.

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Published

Taniel

on October 29, 2008

in AK-AL, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-13, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IA-04, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KS-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-20, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, SC-01, Uncategorized and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

With a week remaining before Election Day, all campaigns and national committees are budgeting their final advertising push and buying media time to last them through November 4th. The DCCC has poured in nearly $15 million in almost 40 districts already this week. More investments are likely to come today and tomorrow, first because the DCCC has left out a number of districts in which it regularly invests and because it appears that the NRCC has yet to make its last round of expenditures. But the DCCC’s $14 million latest spending spree gives us a good idea of which seats Democrats are the most committed to. (Most of the following numbers come from SSP’s always very handy House expenditure tracker.)

In three districts did the DCCC go for broke; all are currently held by the GOP: In IL-10, the DCCC just poured in an impressive $929,279, bringing its total investment in the district to more than $2 million. (This is partly explained by the fact that IL-10 is in the expensive Chicago market). In NV-03, the DCCC bought more than $750,000 of air time against Rep. Porter, bringing its total to more than $2.3 million. And in IL-11, $600,000 worth of advertisement (and a total that surpasses $2 million) should help Debbie Halvorson win this open seat.

Another group of seats - here again predominantly GOP-held - saw massive investments of more than $500,000. Those include the once-safe AZ-03, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, OH-15 (the total surpasses $2 million in each of these five districts), MN-06 (the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million in two weeks on Bachmann’s seat) and the conservative NM-02 (for a total of $1.5 million). This makes New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter the most protected Democratic incumbent, and confirms the remarkable development by which the DCCC has poured more effort in AZ-03 than in many seats that were more obviously competitive.

Also notable are the DCCC’s expenditures that top $400,000. Here again the list is made up of Republican seats: MD-01, MN-03 and OH-01 (total spending in each now tops $2 million), MI-07 and MI-09 (total spending in each tops $1 million), CA-04 and NY-26. Between $200,000 and $400,000, we have AZ-01 (an open seat that is considered an easy Democratic pick-up but where the DCCC has now spent more than $2 million), CO-04, KY-02, MO-09, FL-24 (all now more than $1 million total), FL-21, FL-25, NE-02, OH-02, NY-29, FL-08, IN-03 and IN-09. Rounding up six-figure expenditures are AK-AL, CA-11, CT-04, LA-06, NJ-03 and NJ-07 (all more than $1 million total), AL-05, ID-01, KS-02.

A few observations about this spending spree. First, the DCCC did not expand the map this week. The only new seat they invested in yesterday is FL-08, a district that has looked highly competitive for weeks and that I just moved to the lean take-over category this past week-end. Also noteworthy is NE-02, where the DCCC’s media buy this week is eight times higher than it was last week. However, there are a number of districts we have been talking about lately in which the DCCC is not playing despite the massive loan it took last week; those include California’s seats, IA-04, FL-13, FL-18 or even SC-01 where the DCCC has not followed up on a small investment it made last week. Furthermore, the national committee appears to have given up on MO-06, which was once considered a top opportunity but in which the DCCC has not bought air time for two weeks now.

Second, Democrats seem to be very comfortable about playing defense. They have largely pulled out of AZ-05, AZ-08 or MS-01, all districts that the GOP had high hopes of contesting; they have not had to spend a dime in places like KS-03 or NY-20, seats Republicans had vowed to contest. And they do not seem to feel particular energy in many of the blue seats in which they are investing. However, we do know that the DCCC is starting to air this ad in PA-12 on behalf of Murtha, though they have yet to report that expenditure.

The NRCC, meanwhile, posted a few expenditures over the past two days though a lot more should come tonight. Noteworthy investments include $375,000 spent in WY-AL, more than $250,000 in NE-02 and MO-09, more than $100,000 in MO-06, IN-03. What do all these districts have in common? They are extremely heavily Republican (Bush won IN-03 with 68% of the vote, for instance, and let us not even talk about WY-AL) and Republican candidates are in such a bad state that the NRCC is forced to spend its money in such districts.

(There is something to be said against the NRCC’s decision making, and we might talk about this more in the coming week: Swing seats like NM-01 or OH-16 will likely be lost for a decade or more if Democrats pick them up, yet the NRCC is not spending a dime there. Conservative seats like WY-AL or IN-03 would be likely to fall back into GOP hands in the coming cycle or two, but the NRCC is spending all of its resources in such places.)

Let’s take a closer look at Southern Florida, where the battles in FL-21 and in FL-25 have become truly vicious. Both seats are in the same Miami media market, and they are represented by the (Republican) Diaz-Balart brothers. So Democrats have decided to save money - and just air an ad targeting both Diaz-Balarts:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMgxd3aiWo"]

The GOP’s response in FL-25 is also fascinating because it bears such a close resemblance to what is going on in the presidential race. Democratic candidate Joe Garcia is blasted for being in favor of “redistribution of the wealth,” underscoring how much Republicans are banking on Joe the Plumber at this point:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTm91xZQhl0"]

Spending, spending, spending (and some cutbacks)

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2008

in CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CO-Sen, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KY-02, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-09, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16, SC-01, TX-23, VA-02, VA-05, VA-11, WV-02 and WY-AL

. 0 Comments

It might be very little compared to a $700 billion bailout, but it’s a lot of money but most other standards: Every presidential, congressional and gubernatorial campaign saved its ammunition for these final two weeks, and money is now flying left and right.

In this game of piling expenditures, woe to whoever is left behind! Or should some cutbacks perhaps be taken as good news by candidates? The Denver Post reveals tonight that the DSCC will pull-out of the Colorado Senate race because it feels that Mark Udall is now in a “commanding position” - a remarkable decision by a party committee that has a lot of cash, and a clear sign that Chuck Schumer wants to spend as much of it as possible in Georgia and Kentucky.

(While true that Schaffer has not in a single poll all year and that Udall has been ahead by double-digits in some of the latest surveys, Udall hasn’t exactly been able to put the race away either and a number of independent groups are in the state pummeling Udall, so the DSCC better be sure of what it’s doing. On the other hand, the NRSC appears to have pulled out of Colorado as well, and Udall had far more cash on hand than Schaffer at the end of the third quarter, guaranteeing that Udall has a substantial advantage in the final stretch.)

Two Republican congressmen for whom a cutback could be disastrous news, however, are Reps. Musgrave and Bachmann of CO-04 and MN-06. In the former, the NRCC bought $375,000 of air time for this week yesterday, but it will not be spending anything in the final week of the campaign. (Could they not have decided that yesterday and saved themselves the $376,000?) In MN-06, the NRCC had not yet invested any money but had reserved ad time for the final two weeks; no longer.

(It is more difficult to know what to make of this Minnesota cutback: It is certainly not a sign of confidence on the part of the NRCC given that the race just became highly competitive 5 days ago, so could it be a concession? While Bachmann is viewed as more vulnerable today than she was before her rant on anti-Americanism, she doesn’t seem to be vulnerable enough at all for Republicans to despair of holding her seat. Perhaps the GOP saw how much money Democrats were preparing to pour in the district and realized there was no way it could even attempt to match that?)

While the NRCC is busy deciding which of its incumbents to abandon, the DCCC is deciding which safe-looking red districts it should spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in. The result of their deliberation resulted in a stunning new spending spree in 51 districts (SSP has the full list) - six of which are first time investments: KS-02, CA-04, MN-06, SC-01, WV-02 and WY-AL!

The most fascinating of these buys is no doubt KS-02, as Rep. Nancy Boyda had insisted that the DCCC pull out of the district because she wanted to run the campaign herself; the DCCC had canceled its reservations. But now that GOP challenger finished the third quarter in a strong position financially, national Democrats apparently decided they couldn’t afford to stay true to their word. But consider a minute the three latter districts I just listed: We knew that CA-04 and WY-AL were highly competitive, but it is still remarkable to see Democrats spend more than $200,000 in such conservative areas - and let’s not even talk of SC-01, which was on no one’s radar screen as of one week ago.

The rest of the DCCC’s investment covers districts they have already been spending in, but some of their expenditures remain nonetheless breathtaking in their attempt to expand the map onto red territory. And consider that this money comes on top of the $4 million the DCCC spent on Monday and Tuesday in other districts. (I reviewed those expenditures here.) That brings the DCCC’s total expenditures over the past three days to about $16 million; the NRCC, meanwhile, spent around $5 million.

In a number of districts, the DCCC is going all-out. They just spent more than $400,000 in 8 districts (to which we should add NC-08 and IL-10, in which they spent more than that amount yesterday). More than $643,000 is being spent on NV-03 for this week alone! The DCCC is spending nearly $600,000 in IL-11, more than $500,000 in NH-01, NJ-03 and OH-01, more than $400,000 in IN-09, MN-06 and VA-11.

The committee has now spent more than $1 million in all of these districts except MN-06, even though it is somewhat puzzling that they are choosing to pour so much money in IN-09 and VA-11, two districts in which the Democratic candidates are now heavily favored (particularly in VA-11). Might that money not have been better spent elsewhere? The same was true of the $300,000 the DCCC spent yesterday in AZ-01, bringing its total there to nearly $2 million.

That said, the rest of this money will go a long way towards boosting Democrats who are facing tough races (Shea-Porter, for instance) or who are on the brink of putting the race away (NV-03 and IL-11). An investment that could prove particularly important is NJ-03: GOP candidate Myers has been unexpectedly competitive in this open seat, but state Senator Adler has a huge financial advantage in what is an expensive district to advertise in. With this much money spent by the DCCC, Adler will swamp Myers, whose main hope now is that New Jersey voters are fed up with Democrats.

The DCCC also spent significant amounts (more than $300,000) against the Diaz-Balart brothers in FL-21 and FL-25, in the pair of contested Michigan districts (MI-07 and MI-09), in MO-09, NM-02, NY-26, NY-29, OH-16 and VA-02. More than $200,000 were poured into CA-04, CA-11, FL-24, MN-03, NM-01, OH-02, OH-15, TX-23, VA-05, WV-02, WY-AL and 8 more districts saw (including IN-03, KY-02 and NE-02) buys of more than $100,000. What is once again remarkable is the depth of the Democrats’ investment: they are leaving almost no stone unturned - extending their buys to places few Democrats were even dreaming of a week ago and pouring huge amounts of money in some of the second-tier races they are hoping to take-over.

It is hard to think of GOP-held districts that could potentially be vulnerable and that the DCCC has not invested in. Perhaps the California districts we have been hearing about over the past week? Meanwhile, the NRCC is struggling to keep up. Apart opening its wallets in 20 districts yesterday, it spent in a few more today, but only crossed the six figure mark in IN-03, KY-02 and NE-02, NV-03 - all GOP-held districts, two of which were not deemed vulnerable as of 14 days ago (IN-03 and NE-02). For the GOP, the bottom is falling out. How much can they now salvage?

Congress: NRCC spends money (!), Stevens trial enters final stage

Published

Taniel

on October 22, 2008

in AK-Sen, AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, FL-21, FL-24, ID-01, IL-10, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-11, VA-02, WA-08 and WI-08

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Spending: After weeks of holding back on TV advertisements because of its meager budget, the NRCC finally unloaded over the past two days, buying more than $4 million worth of ads in a total of 20 districts. And some of these buys are quite large - perhaps unexpectedly so.

Over the past two days, the NRCC spent more than $400,000 in two red district (MN-03 and WA-08), $300,000 or more in CO-04, MI-07, NH-01 and PA-11, more than $200,000 in MO-09, NY-26, NY-29, OH-02 and OH-15, more than $100,000 in LA-06, MO-06, NJ-03, NJ-07, OH-01, PA-03 and WI-08 and less than $100,000 in AL-02 and AL-05. (Alabama media markets are inexpensive, so the NRCC’s spending those two districts is substantial.)

To this list should also be added districts in which the NRCC bought ad time at the end of last week, so that they will not have to invest more money to stay on air for a few more days. Those include: FL-21, ID-01, VA-02. Furthermore, Politico reports that the NRCC has just made expenditures it has not yet reported (and will likely do so by tonight) in three more districts, KY-02, IN-03 and NE-02 - three very conservative districts, the latter two of which were not expected to be competitive as of a month ago.

This spending offers a fascinating window into the GOP’s view of which blue seats are competitive and which red states are salvageable or deserve defending. Some omissions of vulnerable red seats continue to be glaring, particularly FL-24, NM-01, NC-08, NV-03, OH-16. That the NRCC is spending so much money helping Rep. Walberg in MI-07 while investing nothing in Rep. Knollenberg’s MI-09 is telling of the latter’s vulnerabilities. However, there are some surprises in the list.

The first is MN-03, the heated open seat in which the GOP has just poured in a huge amount of money: a week ago, the NRCC was reported to be moving out of the district and allocating that budget to MN-06 (Bachmann’s seat) instead. Clearly, the NRCC has since then decided that the district is still winnable. Similarly, Reps. Musgrave and Kuhl in CO-04 and NY-29 look to be trailing, so it is curious that the NRCC has decided to invest some of its limited expenditures into saving them. The calculation is surely that it is always easier to pull incumbents through rather than salvage open seats or help challengers.

Meanwhile, the DCCC posted far less expenditures yesterday than it usually does on Tuesday, including a strange omission of a number of seats in which it has been on air for weeks (the New Mexico, Ohio and New Jersey open seats, for instance). That suggests that there are still DCCC expenditures to come today, which will up the Democrats’ total (they have, after all, a lot of money to spend), but a few investments are very noteworthy.

The ease with which the DCCC invests amounts which appear prodigious when spent by the NRCC tells us all we need to know about the parties’ financial disparity. The DCCC just poured in a stunning $566K in IL-10. This is an extensive district to spend in because of the Chicago media market, certainly, but it is certainly a large buy - especially considering that Rep. Kirk appears to be gaining in recent polls. The committee spend more than $400,000 in NC-08, bringing its total investment in that district to nearly $2 million (the NRCC has spent nothing). The new spending is more than $300,000 in AZ-01, AZ-03, CO-04, MD-01 and almost reaches $200,000 in AL-02 (as I said, that is a lot of money to spend in an Alabama media market).

Given that nearly everyone has long expected AZ-01 to be among the easiest pick-ups for Democrats, it is somewhat bizarre that the DCCC is pouring that much money in the district, but that is their only defensive-looking move (if that can be said about a red district). Apart from that, the overall picture is as remarkable as last week: The NRCC is building a firewall in second-to-third tier seats while the DCCC is spending heavily on seats it should not even be thinking about: more than $700,000 of Democratic money spent in one day in AZ-03 and MD-01?! Who would have thought that would be possible just four weeks ago?

—

Alaska: Ted Stevens’s trial enters its final stage today, as the case will be handed to the jury which will start its deliberations. The always-useful Anchorage Daily News provides an overview of yesterday’s closing arguments - and through them a recap of what has happened in the trial over the past month. While Stevens’s defense made some important gains over the past month - in particular getting the judge to throw out some evidence - the trial’s last few days were not kind to the Alaska Senator. The government’s chief attorney got Stevens to lose his temper at times during his cross-examination, and she ridiculed his claim that a chair that had been in his house for seven years was a “loan” rather than “a gift.”

As soon as the jury returns, we shall have a much better idea of the dynamics of the race, as it is looking more likely every day that the trial’s verdict will also decide Stevens’ electoral fate. A new just-released Ivan Moore poll confirms that Stevens has closed the gap and that the race is now a dead heat; an acquittal would be likely to boost Stevens on top, while a guilty verdict would make it difficult for him to pull through. But what happens if the jury only partially acquits Stevens? He is, after all, being tried on seven different charges, so a guilty verdict might not be as damning as the prosecution would want it to be.

Poll watch: ND back in contention, OH resists Obama; Dems strong in CT-04, not in MO-06

Published

Taniel

on October 16, 2008

in CA-46, CT-04, CT-Pres, KY-03, MN-06, MO-06, ND-Pres, NE-02, NE-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Pres, OR-05, OR-Pres, OR-Sen and PA-Pres

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Today’s presidential polling is rather useless since these surveys were taken before a debate - and released after. None of these polls - including the five tracking polls - tell us what impact the debate might have had. That said, they provide a useful baseline with which we can compare polls released in the upcoming days.

John McCain gets some good news in this round-up - but only because any survey that has him within striking distance has now become great news for the GOP. Rasmussen’s new Ohio poll has the candidates tied just three days after Obama seized his first lead in Rasmussen polling; and both Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls have tightened a bit, with McCain rising to a level he had not experienced in two to three weeks. In fact, Gallup’s “traditional likely voter model” has Obama leading within the margin of error - a reminder that turnout will be key.

That said, Obama undoubtedly remains in command; the tracking polls have him ahead between 4% and 11%. Furthermore, Obama seizes the lead in a North Dakota poll - the second survey in a row (after a “Forum poll”) from the state to show that it might be highly competitive after all (Obama withdrew from the state in September). Obama also looks competitive in the race for Omaha’s district. Furthermore, he continues to consolidate his position in blue state - coming in with his biggest lead yet in Pennsylvania and expanding his advantage in Oregon. On to the full roundup of the day’s polls:

The tracking polls have Obama in command, but McCain has made some gains in the run-up to the debate (all the trackings were taken before yesterday’s proceedings). Obama leads 50% to 46% in Rasmussen, the first time since September 25th McCain is higher than 45%; he leads 51% to 40% in Research 2000, 49% to 41% in Hotline, 49% to 44% in Zogby. In Gallup, Obama’s lead among registered voters and the expended model of likely voters is 6% (his smallest in two weeks); among the traditional model of likely voters, Obama leads by 2%.

The candidates are tied at 49% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. The poll was taken Tuesday night, before the debate. A poll taken on Sunday night and released on Monday had Obama leading by 2%; that was the first time Obama had ever lead in a Rasmussen poll from this state.

Obama leads 53% to 37% in the Morning Call tracking poll of Pennsylvania, his largest lead yet in the survey! In fact, it is Obama’s largest lead ever in Pennsylvania.

Obama leads 44% to 41% in a DMF Research poll of North Dakota.

McCain leads 48% to 44% in NE-02, according to a poll released by Democratic-form Anzalone Lizst.

Obama leads 54% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of Oregon.

Obama leads 57% to 37% in a Rasmussen poll of New York.

Obama leads 56% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Connecticut. He led by 12% last month.

Obama leads 59% to 35% in a SUSA poll of Massachusetts.

I am only including this because I try to include every poll I find, but this is probably the least trustworthy institute we have seen lately… A CNU Virginia poll has Obama leading 53% to 47%. The previous CNU poll had McCain leading by 9% but it had sampled almost no 18-29 year old and black voters were dramatically under-represented. This time, 58% of respondents are female.

I also do not think much of Zogby’s self-selected interactive (online) polls, but here are there nonetheless. Zogby showed McCain leading in Pennsylvania by comfortable margins when no one else did, now Obama is ahead; Zogby had Obama ahead comfortably in North Carolina when all polls had McCain up within the MoE, now Obama is narrowly ahead. In other news: McCain is up in Ohio and Indiana, Obama leads in Florida, New Mexico, Virginia, narrowly in Colorado and Nevada.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

The candidates are tied at 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Oregon’s Senate race. Smith led by 1% in mid-September. Rasmussen does not seem to have included the Constitution Party candidate.

In CT-04, Democratic challenger Himes leads 48% to 45% against Rep. Shays in a new SUSA poll.

In MO-06, GOP Rep. Graves leads 51% to 40% in a new SUSA poll. He led by 9% a month ago.

In OR-05, Democrat Kurt Schrader leads 51% to 38% in a new SUSA poll.

In KY-03, Rep. Yarmuth opens a large 57% to 41% lead against former Rep. Ann Northup in the latest SUSA poll.

In MN-06, a DCCC internal finds GOP Rep. Bachmann holding on to a 42% to 38% lead.

In NE-02, Rep. Terry is up 48% to 47% only in an internal poll for his Democratic opponent.

In CA-46, a seat that was deemed safe as of two weeks ago but that the GOP has been increasingly worrying about, a Capitol Weekly article reveals that Republican internals have the race within the margin of error.

Senate: Like North Carolina, Oregon remains highly competitive in all recent polling, making it unclear why so many Republicans seem to be resigned to losing both. That said, an incumbent below 50% is rarely in a good position, and Smith’s often vicious attacks ads have not sufficed to disqualify Merkley.

House: SUSA’s survey from MO-06 is perhaps the best polling news Republicans have gotten in weeks. This is a district Democrats are heavily targeting, and that the NRCC has started to invest in. Yet, Kay Barnes has made no progress whatsoever and Graves remains in a strong position. However, the rest of the surveys bring good news to Democrats. For one, Himes is in a strong position in CT-04 while Democrats look like they have made districts that were not supposed to be vulnerable competitive (NE-02, MN-06 and CA-46).

Meanwhile, Democrats have little to worry about in many of the seats Republicans were excited about picking-up. Northup’s candidacy was supposed to be one of the NRCC’s great recruitments, but she is quickly falling in Kentucky; and OR-05 was one of only two competitive Dem-held open seats before the GOP candidate got involved in a series of scandals relating to abortion and suscipicous trips.

RNCC works on firewall, DCCC invests in new districts and passes $1 million mark in many

Published

Taniel

on October 14, 2008

in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, AZ-08, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-16, FL-21, FL-26, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, PA-10, TX-23, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08 and WI-08

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As the time comes for the party committees to buy time for the upcoming week, the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle and will seats to become competitive once again makes itself felt. The DCCC spent more than $8 million on more than 40 districts, moved in four new races it had not yet spent any money on while seemingly withdrawing from two, and passed the $1 million mark in a number of these contests. The GOP, by contrast, appear to have largely given up on playing offense and are building a firewall around a few incumbents; the NRCC’s meager resources hardly allow it to dream of a better defense.

As always, the DCCC and NRCC decision to invest will not make a candidate, though a decision to pull out can certainly break an underfunded challenger or a swamped incumbent. But beyond illustrating the two parties’ financial disparities, a detailed look at where the two parties are spending money lays out the electoral map and tells us which seats people who are paid to track House races full-time (and who have inside information and polling we do not have access to) think will be competitive, or not.

With that said, let’s use our now familiar classification to break down the latest House expenditures:

Republican investments

The GOP is in such a difficult financial situation that its mere decision to spend money on a race says a lot about how they view (and how their private polling tells them to view) a race. If the GOP is spending money on a race that is supposed to be competitive, it means they think that this particular seat is more likely to be saved than others; if they spend money on a race that was not yet viewed as that competitive, it means we probably don’t have enough information and that district is indeed highly vulnerable.

In the latter category is FL-21, where the NRCC just spent more than $500,000. This district is in Miami’s media market, so advertising there is difficult. The DCCC has not spent any money on the district for now, however, so the GOP might be successful in building a firewall here. (More on the GOP’s FL-21 efforts below.) Also in the latter category is MO-06, where incumbent Sam Graves is not currently considered to be in as much trouble as other Republicans - but the NRCC is evidently worried about his prospects and intent on keeping him, as they spent more than $100,000 in one their only six-figure investments to date.

In the former category is NM-01, the open seat that I am currently rating lean take-over. The NRCC is not spending money here, but Freedom’s Watch and the Republican Campaign Committee of New Mexico are each spending more than $200,000. (Democrats are spending heavily in both NM-01 and MO-06.) The NRCC also threw in modest amounts in LA-06, PA-03 and WI-08. (Update: It looks like the RNCC is looking to spend a lot of money in NH-01 - as much as $400,000, confirming its strategy of putting a lot of money in a handful of races.)

New DCCC investments

Democrats are now spending for the first time in four districts, two of which are obvious choices (CO-04 and NY-29) and two of which are true shockers (IN-03 and NE-02). While it might be surprising that the DCCC has not opened its wallet to hit Musgrave yet, the congresswoman has been hit by more than half-a-million worth of advertisement by the Defenders of Wildlife PAC, and that might have convinced the DCCC that its involvement was not (yet) needed. But now that the DCCC is moving in, it is clearly determined to make a splash: its first buy is an impressive $345,000.

As for IN-03 and NE-02, they demonstrate the Democrats’ determination to expand the map: neither of these seats was supposed to be even close to competitive, and I confess IN-03 isn’t even on my House ratings for now. That will be corrected soon, as the DCCC’s decision to invest a serious amount of money (it has already bought more than $150,000 and has committed about half-a-million) means that the district is indeed competitive. Democrats aren’t bluffing in NE-02 either, as they have brought more than $130,000 worth of ads.

Districts where the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million

This is not a guarantee that the Democratic candidate will, but it certainly means that the DCCC has put a high priority in winning these races: AK-AL, AZ-01, AZ-03 (!), AZ-05, MN-03, NC-08, NH-01, NJ-07, OH-15, OH-16. In other districts, the total passes $1 million when the DCCC’s investment is added to that of NARPAC (National Association of Realtors). In PA-11, for instance, that total reaches $1.8 million; if Rep. Kanjorski loses reelection, it will just how incredibly vulnerable he had become.

Districts the DCCC is playing defense

The DCCC continued to invest in AL-05 (now almost half-a-million total), CA-11, AZ-05 (nearly $250,000 this week, bringing the total to $1.2 million), LA-06, MS-01, NH-01 (the total now reaches $1.2 million), PA-10, TX-23 and WI-08. More surprising is the DCCC’s decision to dump huge resources in IN-09 (almost $300,000 this week), a district that looks increasingly safe for Baron Hill. However, the DCCC looks to have stopped advertising in FL-16 (Mahoney’s district…) and AZ-08, where Rep. Giffords looks relatively secure. Both districts could be moved accordingly in my upcoming rating changes.

Districts that were not so long ago considered long shots

I already mentioned IN-03 and NE-02, but those are just the tip of the iceberg as the DCCC continues to pour in money in races that were not considered that competitive as of this summer! New spending in AL-02 raises the total to more than half-a-million, an impressive sum for this relatively cheap media market. The DCCC’s spending totals in AZ-03 are truly staggering, as this is a district no one thought of as that competitive until ten days ago - and the DCCC just dumped in about $369,000. In MD-01, a large new buy brings the Democratic total to almost $900,000. (The Club for Growth is helping the Republican here with more than $200,000). Other noteworthy buys in this category are KY-02, MO-09, NM-02, PA-03, VA-02. In all these districts, the DCCC is not bluffing and is putting serious money behind its hopes of riding a blue tsunami.

Districts Democrats were expecting to pick-up more easily

Most of the DCCC’s biggest overall expenditures belong in this category, in what is at the same time good news for Democrats (it allows them to solidify their prospects) but also disappointing ones (since they would have liked to spend some of money elsewhere). Perhaps the most surprising development is the DCCC’s decision to invest nearly $350,000 in AZ-01 (bringing the total to $1.3 million), a race Democrats are expected to win relatively easily. The DCCC also just spent more than $200,000 in NM-01, OH-15 and OH-16 (bringing the total in each to more than $1 million), three open seats that Democrats are one point were hoping to have an easier time with. Other districts in this category are IL-11, NJ-03, NJ-07 and VA-11.

Districts that are and were expected to be competitive

This category contains the least surprising ad buys since the races were expected to be competitive since the beginning. Particularly noteworthy buys include the DCCC’s buy of about $300,000 in NC-08 (total of more than $1.3 million), more than $200,000 in MI-07, NV-03, NY-26, OH-01 and WA-08. Combined with AFSCME’s spending, the Democratic buys in MI-07 have an impressive size. The DCCC also spent in CT-04, FL-26, IL-10, MI-09, MN-03 and MO-06.

—

While it would be too long to take a detailed look at the committees’ new ads, it is worth taking a quick look at the themes these new spots are emphasizing. On the Democratic side, the day’s biggest news undoubtedly comes from the DCCC’s decision to heavily invest in IN-03 and attack longtime Representative Souder for having been changed by Washington:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eijpzkDXfIM"]

On the Republican size, the biggest news by far is the RNCC’s massive investment in FL-21. The GOP might have chosen this district because of the scandals that have long surrounded Democratic candidate Raul Martinez, a controversial figure who has enough baggage for the GOP to seize easily. The ad’s closer says it all - “We know Martinez is corrupt enough for Washington, but that doesn’t mean we should send him there:”

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JroM8wR1sCQ"]

Rating changes, House edition: DCCC continues to expand map

Published

Taniel

on October 11, 2008

in IN-09, MI-09, MN-06, NE-02, NV-02, NY-29, OH-15, TX-10 and WA-08

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For the final stretch to Election Day, I am launching a new format for my Senate and House ratings. For the past 14 months, I have offered detailed descriptions of every Senate and House race, but that takes me too long for me to be able to update my ratings frequently enough now that the field of play is in constant flux. So I will only list those districts whose ratings is being changed with a brief explanation, and will thus hopefully be able to make this a regular feature over the next 23 days. (Senate and presidential rating changes should both come within 48 hours.)

As is to be expected, the environment continues to be toxic for the GOP and that is leading Democrats to continue making gains at the House level. Of these 9 rating changes, eight favor Democrats and two more GOP-held seats (NY-29 and OH-15) move to the lean take-over category. In some districts the GOP’s headaches are facing are exacerbated by local factors (that is the case for instance in Michigan, where McCain’s pull out means trouble for Reps. Walberg and Knollenberg), while in others Democrats are riding the national wave of voter discontent - how else to explain that the GOP is looking to invest in MN-06 or that the DCCC has poured in money in AZ-03 or NE-02?

Here is an overview of the new outlook:

Likely/Safe Democratic: 210 seats (+1)
Lean/Likely/Safe Democratic: 238 seats (+3)
Toss-ups: 29 seats (-3)
Lean/Likely/Safe Republican: 168 seats
Likely/Safe Republican: 157 seats (-2)

IN-09, lean Democratic to likely Democratic: Republicans have not been able to gain as much traction as in past years for what is the fourth straight match-up between Baron Hill and Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002 and 2006, Sodrel won in 2004. Barack Obama’s unexpected strength in the Hoosier State has undercut the GOP’s hope that presidential coattails would carry Sodrel through the finish line as they did in 2004, not to mention that Hill will benefit from Obama’s strong ground game while the McCain campaign has spent little time organizing Indiana. Recent independent polls have found Hill leading by double-digits.

MI-09, lean Republican to toss-up: Rep. Knollenberg’s prospects have collapsed over the past month. This is a swing district (Bush prevailed with 51% of the vote in 2004), and it is filled with Reagan Democrats - one of the constituencies that have been moving to the Democratic Party because of the financial crisis. And McCain’s decision to pull out of the state is devastating for Knollenberg, who was partly relying on the presidential campaign’s turnout effort to mobilize his own supporters. Democratic candidate Peters has been polling ahead or even; Peters leads by 11% in a DCCC poll, but the DCCC’s internal numbers in many districts have been far more favorable for Democrats than those of other firms; an independent poll and an internal poll for Peters find the race within single digits. That sounds more believable, but what also seems certain is that Knollenberg is way under 50% - in fact, he looks to be stuck in the low 40s, deadly territory for an incumbent, especially when he can’t count on a superior ground game to help him.

MN-06, likely Republican to lean Republican: Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is a solid contender but he had failed to get much traction up until now, and Rep. Bachmann was considered relatively safe this year, but the NRCC evidently does not feel this way as they are reportedly divesting resources out of highly competitive MN-03 and into MN-06. That will certainly help protect Bachmann (especially if the DCCC doesn’t move in) but it still signals that she is more endangered than expected.

NE-02, off the map to lean Republican: Democrats have been mentioning this race for a while, but this is conservative enough a district for a Republican incumbent to be given the benefit of the doubt. But the DCCC’s unexpected decision to invest significant resources in the race - they have already spent more than $200,000 - puts it on the list of competitive races, especially when you combine the DCCC’s investment to Obama’s efforts in the state (the presidential campaign has opened 2 field offices in Omaha, forcing Sarah Palin to come and campaign). Democrats are making a rare push to organize Omaha, and that puts NE-02 in play.

NV-02, likely Republican to lean Republican: Nevada Democrats are riding the momentum of big registration gains, while Republicans are being weighed down by the unpopularity of their governor, not to mention the GOP’s national difficulties. That gives an opening to Jill Derby, who is back for a rematch in this conservative district. An independent poll recently found Rep. Heller leading but under 50% and in single-digits, so the race is certainly competitive.

NY-29, toss-up to lean Democratic: Republicans currently hold six seats in the Empire State, and Democrats have been targeting four of them - including three in upstate New York. Of these four seats, NY-29 is the only one featuring an incumbent. Rep. Kuhl barely survived the 2006 cycle, and Democrat Eric Massa is back for a rematch. It is never easy to topple an incumbent, but New York’s Republican Party is in disarray and Kuhl looks highly vulnerable. Three polls released over the past week (one by SUSA, one by Research 2000 and one released by Democrats) show Massa leading outside of the margin of error, with Kuhl in the low 40s. That’s not a good place to be for an incumbent. Add to that the DCCC’s commitment to fund this race, and Democrats have a slight edge.

OH-15, toss-up to lean Democratic: If the political environment didn’t favor Democrats, Republicans would be very well positioned to defy the odds and retain this district. Mary Jo Kilroy hasn’t been a strong campaigner (she was favored to pick-up the seat in 2006 but fell short in one of the GOP’s most unexpected victories of the cycle) and Republican state Sen. Stivers is a strong recruit. But this is not a neutral year, and any Republican would face an uphill fight in an open seat in a swing district like OH-15. A recent SUSA poll and an internal DCCC poll find Kilroy leading by single-digits, and that is where the race should be on paper as well: Kilroy underperforming but able to hold on to a slight lead. Add to that the DCCC’s commitment to win this seat over (they have already spent more than $1 million dollar!), and the picture looks even bleaker for the GOP.

TX-07, off the map to likely Republican: An independent poll showing a single-digit race and an incumbent under 50% is enough to warrant a race a place in these ratings. This contest could still move up depending on how aggressive Democrats are at pursuing it, but this is certainly an unlikely district for them to score a pick-up.

WA-08, toss-up to lean Republican: This should be one of the Democrats’ top priorities this cycle. Rep. Reichert barely survived against Democratic challenger and netroots favorite Darcy Burner in 2006 (51% to 49%) and Burner is back for a rematch. She has proved a solid fundraiser, and Obama should help bring out the Democratic base. In the current pro-Democratic climate, races like this should be moving towards Democrats; yet, multiple independent polls (including a couple from SUSA and one from Research 2000 released this week) find Reichert with a comfortable lead and hovering around the 50% mark. One explanation is that the heavy fire Burner endured in 2006 left her with high negative ratings and too bruised to mount as strong a challenge this year. Second, the Chamber of Commerce is targeting the Democrat with a sizable $400,000 ad buy, while the DCCC has not inexplicably not spent any resources on Burner’s behalf.

Full ratings available here.

Poll watch: Obama leads in OH, FL; DCCC internals find good news for House Dems

Published

Taniel

on October 10, 2008

in AL-02, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, IN-09, KY-Sen, MI-07, MI-09, MO-09, NC-Sen, NE-02, NE-Pres, OH-15, OH-Pres, TX-10 and WA-08

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I’m not trying to sound like a broken record, but the basic dynamic of the presidential race is not changing: Obama is putting blue states away (he has yet another double-digit lead in Wisconsin in a new survey released today) and he is looking strong in a number of red states - any one of which would be enough to put him over the top. In today’s batch of surveys, Obama leads outside of the margin of error in a survey from Ohio and a survey from Florida.

Both states are of course absolutely crucial for McCain’s prospects - and both are at this point clearly inching away from him. Obama has led 9 of the last 11 Ohio polls, the only McCain edges being a 1% lead in the latest Rasmussen and a late September SUSA. That said, Obama’s margin remains generally tight, and he has not surged as much in this state as in others (like Virginia). In Florida, Obama has led in the past eight polls - and in all conducted in October! While McCain has been within the margin of error in some of these, but Obama has also pulled ahead by 7% or 8% in a few surveys.

Finally, new states continue to pop up as endangered. It was West Virginia yesterday, and Georgia today. The latest Insider Advantage poll from the Peach State finds Obama within the MoE - and closing the gap for the third IA poll in a row. Obama pulled out of the state in mid-September, when McCain’s prospects were at their highest; was that too hurried a decision? The early voting numbers are very encouraging for Democrats, as I have noted a few times, and at the very least Democratic competitiveness could help Jim Martin in the Senate race.

One good news for McCain is that he has a solid lead in NE-02 in the first poll of the district alone since the summer. Obama has just opened a second field office in Omaha in hope of taking that electoral vote - but for now he has a big gap to close. On to the day’s full presidential roundup:

Obama retains his dominant position in the day’s tracking polls. He leads 52% to 40% in Research 2000 (+2%), 51% to 41% in Gallup (-1%), 50% to 45% in Rasmussen, 48% to 41% in Diego Hotline (+1%) and 48% to 43% in Zogby (+1%). Interestingly, Zogby specified that the Thursday night sample was the best Obama has had yet and he is above 50% for the first time; also note that Zogby’s partisan weighing is much tighter than other surveys, which explains why it is finding smaller margins.

In the first national poll taken entirely after Tuesday’s presidential debate: Obama leads 46% to 39% in a new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics national poll. He led by 6% two weeks ago. Obama’s favorability is now at a high of 60%, while McCain is at 53%. Another interesting internal: 51% say McCain is waging the more negative campaign (versus 27%). And 32% say they are less likely to vote for Obama because of Ayers; 61% say it makes no difference.

Obama led 52% to 44% in a Strategic Vision poll of Florida. He trailed by 3% three weeks ago.

Obama leads 49% to 44% in an Insider Advantage poll of Ohio. Obama led by 2% last week. This poll was conducted after the presidential debate.

Obama leads 48% to 46% in a Strategic Vision poll of Ohio. He trailed by 4% a month ago.

McCain leads 48% to 46% in a WSOC-TV poll of North Carolina.

McCain leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Georgia. He led by 6% last week, 8% the week before and 18% before that! Did the Obama campaign pull out too soon?

McCain leads 53% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of Nebraska’s second district. An electoral vote is at stake here.

Obama leads 51% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

Kay Hagan leads 49% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 3% two weeks ago.

Hagan leads 44% to 43% in a WSOC-TV poll of the same race.

Mitch McConnell leads 48% to 45% in an internal poll for the Lunsford campaign in Kentucky’s Senate race.

In WA-08, a Research 2000 poll finds Rep. Reichert leading 49% to 41% while an internal poll for the Burner campaign find her trailing 48% to 45%.

In IN-09, Rep. Baron Hill leads 49% to 37% in a Research 2000 poll.

In NE-02, Rep. Terry leads 49% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll. The DCCC surprisingly invested money in this district.

In TX-10, GOP Rep. Culberson leads 48% to 40% against Michael Skelly in a Research 2000 poll.

In AL-02, Bobby Bright leads Jay Love 46% to 45% in an internal poll, but he led by 10% in his previous internal!

In MI-09, a Mitchell Research poll with a 6% MoE has a tie at 43%, while a DCCC poll finds Gary Peters crushing Rep. Knollenberg 46% to 37%. Peters led by 4% in an August DCCC poll.

In MI-07, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Mark Schauer leading 43% to 35%.

In MO-09, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Judy Baker leading 40% to 36%.

In OH-15, a DCCC poll finds Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy leading 44% to 36%, with 7% going to independent candidate Don Eckart.

Senate: Lunsford’s poll comes in the heels of a McConnell internal showing the incumbent up 9%. There is thus a consensus from all pollsters (SUSA, Rasmussen, Mason Dixon and the two campaigns) that this has become a single-digit race, and the race has undoubtedly become competitive, with a slight lean towards McConnell. In North Carolina, Kay Hagan continues to inch ahead and a third institute (Civitas) has a headline on their website proclaiming that Hagan has taken a lead in their poll but they have yet to release the numbers.

House: As always, take internal polls with a grain of salt, but they do paint a very rosy picture for House Democrats and it is noticeable how few internal polls GOP candidates or the NRCC are releasing. The numbers might not be as bad as those of the DCCC polls, but there is no question that House Republicans are facing a disaster while once vulnerable Democratic incumbents (Hill in IN-09) are looking strong. Particularly noteworthy in this batch of surveys is the DCCC’s numbers from Michigan - both Republican incumbents are in big trouble now that the McCain campaign left the state, and any incumbent who polls under 40% is in big trouble, no matter what survey that number is coming from.

That said, two pieces of good news for Republicans: (1) WA-08 remains a disappointment for Democrats, as Research 2000 follows SUSA in finding a comfortable lead for Reichert. Things are not going well for Darcy Burner, who lost by 2% in 2006, as she has high enough name recognition at this point that she cannot benefit from a last minute challenger surge as voters learn about her. It looks like the GOP raised the negatives high enough in 2006 that she is having trouble recovering. (2) There was a point at which AL-02 seemed to be trending for Bobby Bright, but the GOP seems to have closed the gap - and credit to Bright for releasing an internal poll with a very bad trendline for him (-9%).

Congress: Franken’s unusual ad, Stevens’s trial and House expenditures

Published

Taniel

on October 10, 2008

in AK-Sen, MN-Sen and NE-02

. 3 Comments

In the world of negative advertisement, campaigns often take words out of context but rarely do their targets bother trying to correct the record. Sure, they’ll put out a statement criticizing the attack, but that explanation rarely makes it on TV, for it would surely take too long to explain in a quick 30-second spot what the full context of a damaging soundbite was and why its use represents a distortion. And even when it could be possible to provide full context in that short a time, the explanation would surely take the whole ad and leave no time to make a wider point and go on the offensive.

Yet, Al Franken’s campaign has decided that it could tackle all these problems and that it had something to gain by devoting an entire one-minute ad to establishing context:

I have already talked about Republican ads attacking Al Franken for his temper and using footage of the Democrat using foul language and yelling in anger. This new ad consists of a long video of Al Franken telling the story of late Sen. Paul Wellstone jogging with his sun; towards the end of the story, Franken imitates Wellstone enthusiastically talking to his son - and that’s one of the moments the GOP selected in its attack ad. “That’s right,” the announcer says. “Ads for Norm Coleman use this footage of Al Franken telling this story about Paul Wellstone and his son and try to make is seem like he was angry. Minnesota deserves better.”

The Franken campaign needed an entire minute to make its case - a 30 second spot would not have sufficed - which pretty much explains why such spots are rare; not to mention that a one-minute ad naturally costs more money. But what makes the ad a strong one is that Franken needs to provide no further explanation beyond airing a longer version of the same clip; the ad does not parse words, nor does it feature explanations and rationales of what Franken meant or what he was trying to say. No ornaments, no clever music, just unedited footage: that usually makes for the most effective advertisement - just remember this one.

This ad is meant to not only disqualify Coleman’s attacks and the GOP’s temper argument but also tarnish Coleman with the taint of misleading ads. The Minnesota Senate race has been particularly nasty, and Republicans have run a campaign that is pretty much devoted to destroying Franken’s reputation through highly personal attacks. This has led some voters in the arms of third party candidate Dan Barkley, so there clearly is some discontent in the electorate about the level of negativity of the Senate campaign. Franken is trying to channel that discontent in this ad, which is as much about offense as it is about defense.

Whether it will work, of course, is unpredictable, and it also depends on how often it runs. But it is certainly an interesting strategy for the Franken campaign to adopt.

Alaska: Politico’s The Crypt and The Anchorage Daily News are providing some top notch coverage of the Ted Stevens’ trial, and the prosecution’s disdain for defense rights continues to be the dominant story so far: the prosecution has repeatedly failed to provide the defense team all the evidence the prosecution is using to make its case, and the judge blasted them yesterday for presenting evidence they knew was false. Some are suggesting that the Department of Justice is trying to sabotage the case, but that doesn’t make much sense. The DOJ brought the case to light, after all, and these prosecutors’ reputation is on the line. What is unfortunately not surprising, however, is for prosecutors to be looking to get a win at any cost and - whether or not you think Stevens is guilty - that is what looks to be happening here.

The judge did throw out some key evidence today because of the prosecution’s failure to provide it to the defense; and the judge actively contemplated dismissing the trial earlier this week. But the prosecution got away with too dire consequences for its mistakes again today: the judge was going to instruct the jury to take into account everything that was going on behind the scenes, but he quickly reversed course and did not deliver strong-worded instructions. Democrats’ electoral hopes in this race depend on a guilty verdict here, but the prosecutors’ mishandling of the case should at least make us somewhat uncomfortable with that prospect.

House: The two party’s campaign committees are continuing to map out the electoral map of the House battle by buying ad time in new districts - or by scaling buy their reservations in places they no longer think they have to or can afford to contest. And the day’s shocker comes from NE-02, the heavily Republican Omaha-based district that the Obama campaign is somewhat contesting and where the DCCC just took a $200,000 buy on behalf Jim Esch. Incumbent Lee Terry won 55% to 45% against Esch in 2006, and Democrats evidently feel they have a shot in this rematch. This is certainly an unexpected buy, and it is a testament to the depth of the DCCC”s pockets and to their determination to remake the electoral map.

Meanwhile, the NRCC is doing the contrary: it is canceling air time it had reserved for the upcoming weeks. The committee is now assessing its financial situation (which now includes an $8 million loan) to decide where they can afford to invest, and the result is not pretty: with less than four weeks to go and the NRCC having invested in none of these highly contested seats for now, the committee has pulled the plug on at least one week of planned advertising in FL-16, ID-01, KS-02, LA-06, MN-03, NM-01, NV-03 and TX-22. These seats are highly competitive, and all of them are rated in the lean or toss-up categories of my latest House ratings.

It is important not to overstate the importance of DCCC and RNCC expenditures, and perhaps I have been guilty of this lately myself. The RNCC pulling out of a district isn’t necessarily as dramatic news as, say, the McCain campaign’s pulling out of Michigan. McCain’s move left no funding for the GOP’s presidential efforts in the Wolverine state, whereas the House candidates themselves have money to use even when the RNCC drops out. But national funding is especially important for challengers and for candidates who are running for open seats, in other words those contenders who are likely to not have enough funds. And all but two of the districts listed above (ID-01 and NV-03) fall in that category.

These Republican challengers do not have the money that comes with incumbency, and they might now have to fend for themselves against the DCCC’s onslaught, which is advertising heavily in all of these seats but KS-02. Can Jenkins, who recently survived a bruising Republican primary, recoup enough financially to beat Nancy Boyda without the NRCC’s help? Can Darren White of NM-01 survive the hundreds of thousands dollars worth of attack ads airing against him by the DCCC now that the RNCC has decided it cannot afford to the same against Democrat Martin Heinrich? And while Bill Sali of ID-01 is an incumbent, he has never been a strong fundraising, making it that much more dependent on the RNCC’s help as well.

Down-ballot: Stevens stuck in DC; Landrieu, Shaheen open leads; Hagan ties Dole

Published

Taniel

on August 20, 2008

in AK-AL, AK-Sen, LA-Sen, MO-Gov, NE-02, NH-Sen, NJ-Sen and WY-AL

. 3 Comments

Whatever chances Ted Stevens has of winning re-election involve him being acquitted this fall - but considering that he already faced a tough re-election battle before his indictment, even that would hardly be enough to allow him to come back in the 111th Congress. Assuming Stevens wins the primary on August 26th (and the latest polling suggests that he will), he will face a tough two months joggling his court dates and his campaigning duties.

The road ahead just got much tougher for Stevens, as a D.C. judge refused today to move his trial from Washington to Alaska, as Stevens had requested. This means that Stevens is now stuck in D.C. from mid-September onward, and while the trial is scheduled to be completed by Election Day, this leaves little time for Stevens to engage in any campaigning activities. His plan was to move the trial to Alaska to be able to hold events in evenings and on week-ends. Now, Mark Begich will essentially have the state for himself in the weeks leading up to the election, and the only headlines Stevens is likely to earn in the local press will be those devoted to his trial.

The GOP has already sank so low in Alaska that it might as well take this as good news: Anything that might convince Stevens that he is waging a losing battle and that would be better off dropping off the ballot (thus allowing state Republicans to replace him) is welcome news to a desperate Republican Party. Of course, it is unclear which GOPer could serve as a savior and replace Stevens on the ballot, but any mid-level Republican could be a better option than an indicted Stevens stuck in DC because of a corruption trial.

Meanwhile, it was primary day yesterday in Wyoming and Washington, and voters in both states set the general election field. The only contested primary was held in WY-AL, where Republican voters chose former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis over a self-funding rancher, Mike Gordon. Lummis will now face off against Democrat Gary Trauner, a Democrat who came close to defeating Rep. Cubin two years ago. In late May, an independent poll had Trauner narrowly ahead of Lummis, 44% to 41%. It would of course be a huge upset if Trauner were to prevail in one of the most Republican seats in the country, but the 2006 results combined with this May poll show that it is very much a possibility. It is unclear how Lummis will fare compared to Gordon; that she is more conservative should not necessarily hurt her chances in Wyoming, and this is not an expensive enough state for Gordon’s self-funding to be that much of a boost.

Meanwhile, Senate polling finds great news for a trio of Democratic women:

In the North Carolina Senate race (polling history), Insider Advantage finds a tie between Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan, both at 40%! The poll pits the black vote as 21% of the sample - slightly higher than 2004 - but Hagan only gets 61% of those voters.

In the Louisiana Senate race, Rasmussen has Mary Landrieu jumping to her biggest lead yet: 53% to 37% - compared to a 5% margin last month.

In the New Hampshire Senate race, Rasmussen finds Jeanne Shaheen expanding her lead against Republican Senator John Sununu, back to where it was in June. She is now up 51% to 40% (52% to 43% with leaners) compared to her 5% lead in July.

In SUSA’s poll from the Indiana gubernatorial race, Mitch Daniels has opened a large lead against Jill Long Thompson, 52% to 38%.

In New Jersey’s Senate race, a new Zogby poll has Frank Lautenberg leading 50% to 32%.

In the South Dakota Senate race, a Democratic poll has Tim Johnson crushing his Republican challenger, 61% to 34%.

In the Missouri gubernatorial race, it’s 48% for Nixon and 42% for Hulshof in PPP’s poll, compared to a 10% race last month, before the GOP primary.

In NE-02, a race that is on few people’s radar, an internal poll conducted for the Democratic challenger has him trailing Republican incumbent Lee Terry 47% to 38%.

And still a tight race in the AK-AL primary, as a Club for Growth poll shows Steve Parnell at 44% to 42% for Rep. Don Young.

Remember that if Obama picks Evan Bayh, the winner of the Indiana gubernatorial race will appoint Bayh’s successor - at this point that would mean the GOP would be looking at gaining a seat. In other words, the Daniels-Long Thompson match-up could soon become a de facto Senate race, and one that does not look too good for Democrats at the moment. A race that looks better, certainly, is Louisiana’s, where Kennedy has not yet been able to justify the hopes Republicans have put in him. LA is rated a toss-up in my latest Senate rankings, but Landrieu’s harsh attack ads appear to be working.

The numbers from the New Hampshire race, meanwhile, are very important as the last two polls (from UNH and Rasmussen) had found an unexpectedly tightening race. Sununu has a large war-chest that he is reserving for a post-Labor Day ad blitz, though that could be blunted by Shaheen’s own financial success and the DSCC’s commitment to putting this race away as soon as possible. The bigger Shaheen’s cushion heading into the fall, the less she will have to fear from Sununu’s ads.

As for the North Carolina Senate race, this is the second poll that finds Dole losing ground, and an incumbent at 40% is sure to be in trouble - whatever the circumstances, whatever the state. The last time Hagan got this close to Dole was in May, before the incumbent unleashed a wave of advertisments that gave her a solid lead once again. Since then, Kay Hagan has gone up on air, the DSCC has aired two advertisments, reserved $6 million of ad time for the fall and even MoveOn has gotten involved with a substantial ad buy that starts airing this week. North Carolina is looking increasingly certain to feature one of the year’s hottest Senate races.

House results: +63 GOP

GOP pick-ups: AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-22, FL-24, GA-8, ID-1, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, IN-9, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MN-8, MO-4, MS-1, MS-4, NJ-3, NC-2, ND-AL, NH-1, NH-2, NM-2, NV-3, NY-13, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-6, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, SD-AL, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-9, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1, IL-8, NY-25, TX-27

Major Dem saves:: CT-5, MA-10, NC-7, NM-1, NY-23, OR-5, CA-18, CA-47, CO-7, CT-4, GA-2, IN-2, IA-2, ME-1, MI-9, MN-1, NC-8, NC-11, NY-22, PA-12, RI-1, WI-3, AR-4, GA-12, IA-1, IA-3, IL-12, KY-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, ME-2, MI-15, MN-7, NM-3, NJ-6, NY-2, NY-4, PA-4, PA-17, O-13, OR-4, TN-5, UT-2, WV-3, WA-9, AZ-7, AZ-8, VA-11, WA-2, CA-11, CA-20, KY-6

Dem pick-ups: DE-AL, HI-1, LA-2

Major GOP saves: AZ-3, CA-3, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, WA-8

Campaign Diaries

Archive for the 'NE-02' Category

Recruitment also picking up in House races

Guilty of dismal fundraising, NRCC spent whatever money it had well

Rating changes, House edition: Final house cleaning

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Spending, spending, spending (and some cutbacks)

Congress: NRCC spends money (!), Stevens trial enters final stage

Poll watch: ND back in contention, OH resists Obama; Dems strong in CT-04, not in MO-06

RNCC works on firewall, DCCC invests in new districts and passes $1 million mark in many

Rating changes, House edition: DCCC continues to expand map

Poll watch: Obama leads in OH, FL; DCCC internals find good news for House Dems

Congress: Franken’s unusual ad, Stevens’s trial and House expenditures

Down-ballot: Stevens stuck in DC; Landrieu, Shaheen open leads; Hagan ties Dole

House results: +63 GOP

Senate results: +6 GOP (final)

Gubernatorial Results: +5 GOP

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