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Category Archive for ‘Nat-Pres’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'Nat-Pres' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

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McCain’s unaired Wright ad

For months, we waited for the McCain campaign to unveil an offensive on Barack Obama’s ties to Jeremiah Wright. Yet, the Arizona Senator stuck to his spring pledge to keep Wright off-limits (besides Sarah Palin’s seemingly improvised decision to bring up Wright in an interview with Bill Kristol). Only in the final days did independent groups launch a flurry of ads featuring Wright - too little and too late to stop Obama’s momentum.

After the election, as McCain staffers revealed their secrets to eager journalists, we learned that the campaign had actually produced a number of negative ads that never aired - one featuring Obama dancing with Ellen DeGeneres, another unleashing the Wright attack.

Today, ABC News obtained and aired that unaired Wright ad, offering us a remarkable look into what might have been had McCain given his green light (the ad itself starts at 1:14):

The ad is framed around the issue of character - a key theme of McCain’s campaign - and seeks to contrast decisions made by Obama and McCain “when no one was looking.” While “one chose to honor his fellow soldiers by refusing to walk out of a prisoner of war camp,” says the announcer, “the other chose not to even walk out of church where a pastor was spewing hatred.” We then see footage of Wright’s famous “God Damn America” sermon.

It is impossible to know whether such an offensive would have truly damaged Obama, but there is no doubt that it would have fundamentally altered the course of the campaign. Yes, Republicans focused their campaign on Bill Ayers in the first half of October and thus used the type of guilt-by-association attack that the Wright ad would have played into - and that did them little good.

But invoking Wright would have injected race in the general election in a way in which both campaigns ultimately managed to avoid. In fact, it was rather surprising how little race was discussed; an early August war over Obama’s use of the race card threatened to throw the entire election into the dangerous territory of racial polarization and the topic had proved such a vivid one during the Democratic primaries.

Both campaigns could have lost a lot had race become a more explicit campaign theme. On the one hand, McCain could have suffered a severe backlash; on the other, Obama’s success was partially due to his ability to neutralize racial conversations, and a sudden increase in racial polarization could have hurt his appeal to culturally conservative white Democrats and independents - groups that ended up massively voting for him but that were not sure to do so during the summer.

In other words, this ad would have been fairly unpredictable but sure to attract so much attention as to monopolize the conversation for a significant amount of time.


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The money factor

As we entered October, I asked a series of questions that I said would go a long way towards determining the winner of the presidential election. Now that results are in, it is time to take a look back at them. We have already discussed the Palin factor and the turnout factor. Today, we will broaden one of my October questions (”will McCain have to cut funding to some battleground states in order to defend Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina?”) to a discussion of the money factor.

From the very first financial reports of the presidential campaign - back in the spring of 2007 - Barack Obama stunned political observers by posting exorbitantly high fundraising totals, erasing what was until then seen as one of Hillary Clinton’s main advantages. By the time Super Tuesday rolled around, the New York Senator was left largely penniless, forced to scale back advertising in many states and budget her way through the late primaries day-to-day.

Obama brought the same fundraising prowess to the general election, and while his decision to opt out of public financing is pinpointed as a key factor explaining his financial dominance, that only affected the final two months of the race. McCain was massively outpaced by Obama even before he became constrained by the limits of public financing, especially in red states that Republicans thought they would win easily but where Obama invested millions - Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana, Indiana, Georgia.

As we got nearer to Election Day, these states became increasingly competitive, forcing the GOP to finally start paying attention. Florida in particular became a money pit for Republicans. Though they remained significantly outspent throughout the fall, they still ended up pouring in millions every week in a state that had McCain leading by double-digits in the spring. The same is true in Virginia, where the McCain campaign inexplicably invested very little until it was already too late and stayed away from the Washington DC market (which reaches Northern Virginia) for as long as it could.

In fact, McCain spent so much money in those states Obama did not need to win as to be unable to keep up adequate levels of spending elsewhere. Republicans tried to implement an offensive game throughout the summer - they did not invest in Indiana and North Carolina but they did spend millions in Michigan or Wisconsin. But that was simply no longer possible once a wave of new red states started demanding attention, leading to McCain’s truly earth-shattering decision to pull out of Michigan on October 2nd.

The Wolverine State was long considered to be the ultimate battleground of the 2008 election, the state that would test Obama’s strength among Reagan Democrats and blue-collar white voters. In retrospect, Obama’s 16% victory might make the Democrats’ fear of Michigan puzzling, but this state, like many other blue states, only anchored itself in the Obama column after the financial crisis solidified the Democrats’ party loyalty. (The Michigan exit poll shows that Obama got 93% of Democrats in the state, a number that was almost unthinkable in early September.)

As of October 2nd, McCain’s decision to withdraw all of its staff and investment from Michigan was truly shocking, and it was dictated as much by falling polling numbers as by the worrisome financial situation. And it was only the first sign of things to come as McCain ended up withdrawing from nearly all blue states by the last weeks of the campaign - including always-promising Wisconsin. The situation became so dire that the McCain campaign could no longer afford funding a full operation in Colorado, as they scaled back some of their advertising in their most desperate move of the campaign.

It is important to appreciate just how low McCain’s finances had gotten by the middle of October that his campaign scaled back spending in what was essentially a must-win state for them, the only way to offset the loss of Colorado was to get a win out of Pennsylvania - and from that point on they were locked in a quixotic (and costly) quest for the Keystone State’s 21 electoral votes.

As a possible counter to the GOP’s money woes, a lot was made throughout the summer of the discrepancy between the RNC and the DNC: Despite Obama’s financial advantage over his opponent, the Republican National Committee was collecting a lot of funds, putting the McCain plus RNC addition on the same level as the Obama plus DNC total.

I warned repeatedly that a dollar held in the RNC’s coffers did not equal a dollar held in Obama’s - and the past few months proved that to be right. While the Obama campaign controlled how to spend the entirety of the Democrats’ money - whether the message, the electoral map, the timing - the division of Republican funds only heightened the schizophrenia of the GOP’s efforts.

The RNC did indeed have millions to spend on the presidential race, but they could either do so through their independent expenditure arm (meaning that no coordination is allowed between the ad’s makers and the McCain campaign, preventing the latter from having any control over messaging, issues raised and themes emphasized) or through coordinated expenditures split equally between the two entities, but the latter option was in many ways more problematic: These coordinated ads cannot just be aimed at one candidate, so the GOP’s attack ads often wasted their time on meaninglessly broad (and often counter-productive) segments against “congressional liberals” like Byron Dorgan and Chuck Schumer.

In my opinion, this only served to make Obama look like a generic Democrat - which is exactly what voters were looking for this year - and distracted Republcans from the only task that could have destabilized Obama - paint him as a risky, unfamiliar figure. McCain’s need to rely on RNC funds forced his campaign to go down the former route more than it might have liked to.

The Obama campaign, meanwhile, was free to spend its money however it wanted - and they had a lot of it to use. That became obvious when Obama revealed that he had raised $150 million in September alone and spent more than $100 million in the first two weeks of October - a crucial period of the campaign during which Obama solidified his lead. His decision to buy a 30-minute infomercial on a number of channels (including Fox, NBC and CBS) was only the icing on the cake of what was an amazing shoping spree.

Of course, congressional Democrats enjoyed a similarly dominant financial position, as the millions the DCCC and DSCC’s started spending in the summer (months before their Republican counterparts were able to make a move) proved decisive. National money is sure to have proved decisive, for instance, in Jeff Merkley and Gordon Smith’s Senate victories in North Carolina and Oregon. At the House level, Democrats fell short of their ambitions but a number of their candidates would have had a far tougher time crossing the finish line without the DCCC’s help.

Now that Democrats are firmly in command of both chambers of Congress and of the White House, money should continue to pour in their coffers - and there is no reason to think that the DCCC and DSCC will not have yet another significant financial advantage in the 2010 midterms.


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The turnout factor

As we entered October, I asked a series of questions that I said would go a long way towards determining the winner of the presidential election. Now that results are in, it is worth taking a look at these questions yet again to try and determine what happened over the past month. Yesterday’s question concerned the Palin factor. Today we will combine two questions (will African-American voters make up a greater share of the electorate? will first time voters show up?) into one: How did changes in turnout affect the race?

From the very first days of the general election, we knew the biggest challenge the GOP was facing was the electorate’s transformation. With Democrats making up an increasingly large portion of registered voters, McCain faced a very difficult task at hand in putting together a winning coalition: Sweep registered Republicans while gaining an edge among independents and capturing a substantial share of the Democratic vote.

Some Republicans protested that polls were getting it wrong: Democrats could not possibly outnumber Republicans by a significant margin after two cycles in which the country was equally divided. Pollsters like John Zogby agreed and decided to impose a tight weight on the partisan breakdown.

Unfortunately for the GOP, the exit polls ended up confirming that Republicans were facing an uphill climb: 39% of the electorate was made up of Democrats and 32% of Republicans. That’s a significant shift from 2004 (and it corresponds to the partisan weights used by Rasmussen).

I wrote in June that Obama could put the election out of reach by solidifying his support among registered Democrats - and that is exactly what happened. As the general election progressed, Obama increased his support from his party’s base and the election became practically unwinnable for the Arizona Senator: with the two candidates enjoying the same level of party loyalty, McCain needed to win independents by double-digits to erase the Democrats’ 7% advantage in partisan identification advantage! Instead, he lost that constituency by 8%.

We can pinpoint to two distinct factors to explain the Democrats’ partisan breakdown advantage. First, the last four years brought about a shift in voter identification. During Bush’s second term, a number of independent voters came to think of themselves as Democrats, while a number of Republicans shied away from their party label. This is a trend we also observed in 2006.

The second factor is the much-discussed enthusiasm gap. Despite predictions of a huge increase in the total number of voters, the turnout rate stayed at the level it was at four years ago, but that is not to say that some constituencies did not participate at an historic pace: Rather, Democratic-leaning voters were mobilized while Republican turnout was depressed. (Election expert Curtis Gans backs this up with a detailed look at turnout data in his analysis of Tuesday’s election.)

It might have been even more so without Sarah Palin’s pick, but after two terms of the widely unpopular Bush (whom many Republicans now also distrust), it was too much to ask of any Republican to energize the base. For a politician like McCain whom conservatives never trusted, it was almost an impossible mission, as he had to ensure that Republicans voted in high numbers while simultaneously appealing to independents.

On the other hand, Obama turned out Democratic-leaning constituencies and had success mobilizing sporadic voters in states in which he concentrated. The difference might not have been felt that dramatically in, say, Ohio and Florida where the Kerry campaign invested a lot of time as well, but it dramatically altered turnout patterns in places like Indiana, Virginia and North Carolina. Obama’s success first and foremost came from maximizing the Democratic vote.

In particular, Obama managed to increase the share of the black vote. He predicted a year ago that a boost in African-American turnout would put Southern states, and there is little doubt that this was a significant factor in Tuesday’s results. Early voting provided the first hints of such a dynamic, and the final exit polls confirm it: 23% of North Carolina voters and 30% of Georgia voters were African-American (compared to 19% and 26% in 2004).

While Obama’s prediction that states like Mississippi would be competitive did not come to pass, it is unlikely Obama could have edged out McCain in the Tar Heel state or that Saxby Chambliss would have been held under 50% without this boost in black turnout.


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The Palin factor

As we entered October, I asked a series of questions that I said would go a long way towards determining the winner of the presidential election. Now that results are in, it is worth taking a look at these questions yet again to try and determine what happened over the past month. Here is the first: Did Sarah Palin matter?

After the vice-presidential debate, Sarah Palin became much less of a factor in the race and we returned to the familiar situation in which the top of the ticket drives the conversation. But there is no question that Palin’s presence on the Republican ticket has had a much greater influence than that of most modern vice-presidential nominees.

On August 29th, John McCain chose to gamble - and he did so in a big way by picking Palin as his running-mate. His decision immediately revived his struggling campaign, and she energized the conservative base, something that was a necessary but not a sufficient condition for a McCain victory. At the same time she failed to attract independents and suburban women to the Republican ticket. As the novelty factor wore off, Palin’s public image deteriorated and the electorate became increasingly uncomfortable with her selection.

I firmly believe that the McCain campaign was right to take a gamble of this magnitude. The campaign was stuck playing catch-up since the first days of the general election. McCain advisers had very few cards left to play. One of the only ones they could control was the vice-presidential pick. The names that were circulating in the Republican veepstakes - Romney, Portman, Pawlenty - might have been strong picks in any other year, but they were not going to provide McCain with the shake-up he needed.

But the way in which they decided what gamble they should take and how they should implement was wildly incompetent.

A gamble by definition can go either way, and it is impossible to predict whether it will radically change the game or turn to an unspeakable nightmare. Yet, this is not to say that it should just be taken lightly without careful consideration: Risks should be calculated, potential drawbacks should be considered and back-up plans should be ready. That a plan is risky is all the more reason to weight it carefully; that its outcome is unpredictable is no excuse for rushing through the decision-making process.

In other words, a gamble should never be made impulsively.

Yet, the Palin choice was nothing if not impulsive. As we long suspected and Scott Draper’s behind-the-scenes account confirmed, it was made in a hurry with inadequate vetting. And from the very first days of September, it proved to be a distracting drip of daily revelations.

First came the flood of reports about her past, her record as Mayor and Governor. Here we learned how inadequate the vetting process was, and not because of the huge amount of revelations we were getting but because of the McCain campaign’s inability to counter those revelations. When the press started reporting that Palin had supporting Pat Buchanan or that she had belonged to the Alaska Independence Party, it took the GOP a long time to find the (arguable) holes in those stories; a simple Nexis search of her name might have alerted McCain aides to those minefields beforehand, allowing them to be prepared to fire back at any misleading reports within minutes rather than days.

Second came Palin’s disastrous interview with Katie Couric which undermined the seriousness of her candidacy for good; all the GOP had left to hope for was that she not sink the McCain campaign, and she performed well enough at the vice-presidential debate to avoid that fate. But then came P.R. disaster of her shopping spree - and The New York Times is now reporting that those were her own decisions that shocked the RNC, unlike what Palin said at first when Politico broke the story - which proceeded to damage her image as an average “hockey mom.”

What ended up truly hurting Republicans was the increasingly public civil war within the McCain campaign. Controversies surrounded Palin’s freelancing (what was up with her stunning protests about her own campaign’s decision to pull-out of Michigan), and The New York Times’s story about the relations between Palin and McCain has a wealth of stunning information (for instance Palin’s insistence at delivering a speech before McCain on Tuesday night, only to be shot down by Schmidt and Salter).

As the duo plummeted in the polls, the firing squad grew into a frenzy; McCain advisers had apparently decided to lay the blame on Palin and the governor’s allies are determined to save her national ambition. This dynamic is sure to lead to even more leaks to the press over the next few weeks, as the GOP’s internal dissensions will spill in the public arena.

It is of course debatable whether any vice-presidential nominee ever has an impact on voters. But it is hard to deny that Palin became a drag to her ticket. (Much of it is McCain’s fault for tapping her when she was so obviously not ready for the big stage, but those are questions that Republicans should settle between themselves.) At the very least, Palin cost McCain precious news cycles at a time he could not afford to waste a single day - all the way to the mid-October troopergate report that led to negative headlines across the country a mere three weeks before Election Day.

At worst, Palin so worried wavering Democrats and independent voters that it sent them to Obama’s side. In an election in which Republicans were hoping to win Clinton supporters, firing a shot in the culture war was sure to repel many of the lifelong Democrats who had been left demoralized by Hillary’s loss; and picking a nominee with little experience was bound to backfire given that one of the main reasons many independents were not sure about Obama was his own lack of preparedness. The national exit polls leave no doubt that all of Palin’s talk of mayoral experience did little to reassure voters: a full 60% of respondents said that Palin is not qualified to be president if necessary, and Obama won 82% of those voters.

McCain’s age, of course, magnified the importance of Palin’s pick, and while past vice-presidential nominees had limited impact (just look at 1988) there was tremendous public attention surrounding the Alaska Governor: Her one debate got more viewers than any of the presidential debates, and her convention speech drew almost as large an audience as Barack Obama’s address. All of this makes the latter scenario far more plausible.

Meanwhile, whether Republicans come to think that Palin was an overall boost or a hindrance, will be a crucial factor in whether she has a chance to capture the Republican nomination in 2012 or in 2016.


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The morning after

There was no Bradley effect, no epic polling error, no Republican miracle in Pennsylvania or Iowa. Exit polls suggest that late-decided voters split evenly between the candidates according to the exit polls and that partisan breakdown was just as favorable to Democrats as some were predicting, with Republicans outnumbered 40% to 32%.

In short, none of the long-shot scenarios McCain supporters were clinging to came to pass and Barack Hussein Obama was elected 44th President of the United States.

After eight years under George W. Bush, the Democratic Party recaptured the White House and will enjoy control of the presidency and of both chambers of Congress for the first time since 1994.

When I started my blog in August 2007, a Barack Obama presidency was certainly not a crazy-sounding idea, but it was difficult to see how he could shake off Hillary Clinton’s hold on the Democratic nomination. Even more outlandish was the thought of John McCain clinching his party’s nod, as the Arizona Senator was a non-factor in the Republican primaries. Yet, both men captured their parties’ nomination and waged a general election that was as entertaining as it was unsuspenseful.

Of course, there was the occasional tightening in the polls and the ten day period in early September where John McCain’s convention bounce propelled him in the lead. But Barack Obama started the general election period with a comfortable lead that he kept all the way to the Election despite all the tumult of an international trip, celebrity ads, debates and a financial crisis.

This was a year in which any Democrat would have been favored, and John McCain never managed to address his party’s vulnerabilities. The attribute that was supposed to help him overcome the year’s blue-lean (his maverick reputation) became a glaring weakness when independence started to look like erratic behavior. And McCain never fully tried to put distance between himself and President Bush, whose record unpopularity weight the GOP down just as it had in 2006.

Of course, McCain was not running against just any Democrat. He was running against an African-American named Barack Obama with prodigious inspirational, fundraising and strategic qualities. That was both a blessing for Republicans as it gave them an opening to transform the election into a referendum on their opponent - as well as a problem: Obama proved to be one of the best campaigners in modern history, channeling the overwhelming enthusiasm of his supporters into a stunningly impressive ground operation and using his appeal to dramatically change the electoral map.

Indiana will no doubt remain the symbol of the incredible transformation red America underwent over the past four years - with North Carolina close behind. George W Bush prevailed by 21% and 13% in those states, but both gave their electoral votes to the Democratic nominee last night. As was expected, Ohio and Florida were not decisive. They were only the icing on the cake - though they were certainly delicious icing for Democrats.

All Obama needed to do was hold on to all of the blue states, prevail in Iowa and New Mexico where a victory seemed likely and then pick-up one more red state. And Obama did so easily: He won every single blue state and New Mexico by double-digits (and yes, that includes Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and New Hampshire), prevailed in Iowa by 9% and crushed McCain in Nevada by 12%!

This means that Iowa was the tipping point of Obama’s electoral college majority and that McCain needed to close a 9% gap to keep himself alive. Needless to say, that is not an easy feat - especially when more than half-a-dozen other red states are threatening to give themselves to your opponent.

For the GOP, this was a crushing defeat but also a warning for future elections. Democrats are laying a claim to the Southwest: Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado swung blue up and down the ballot, giving Obama their 19 electoral votes by margins ranging from 7% to 15% (Bush had won all states), 2 Senate seats and 4 House seats. Unless Republicans find a way to respond they could face grave electoral consequences.

If those states become part of the Democratic base, the GOP would face an uphill fight in the electoral college - not to mention that Arizona and Texas look to migrate towards the competitive category in the future.

At the very least, the GOP saved itself at the congressional level. Republicans feared the worst, and Democrats hoped for a repeat of 2006. But there was no Democratic wave last night - at least not beyond a few select states.

Sure, Democrats expanded their majority in both chambers of Congress, but if you had told a Republican 24 hours ago that they might be able to hold their Senate and House losses to 6 and 20 seats respectively, they would have signed on without hesitation. (There are still a number of uncalled races, so Democratic gains could end up higher than those numbers, but they will certainly not reach the high points many were predicting a few days ago.)

The paradox of this result is that it is not so much that there were surprises but that there were none at all. Unlike in 2006, when Democrats swept all but one competitive Senate seat and unexpectedly beat a large number of Republican incumbents that were deemed relatively safe, both parties ran the races they were expected to and the GOP held his own in toss-up races - perhaps even sweeping them at the Senate level.

In fact, if Virginia Rep. Goode falls he will be the only Republican who will be said to be a casualty of a Democratic wave - a huge contrast to 2006. (Update: Goode has just taken a narrow lead 500 vote lead.) In fact, it long looked like the biggest surprise of the night would be a Republican pick-up, as Mike Arcuri barely survived in NY-24!

Republicans saved a number of seats that they would have lost in 06-like conditions (NJ-07, OH-15, IL-10, MN-03, MN-06) and the election wasn’t quite that brutal to GOP incumbents: Reps. Souder and Shadegg, for instance, won by double-digits despite the millions the DCCC poured in their districts. None of California’s, Nebraska’s or Miami’s Republican congressmen lost, despite predictions to the contrary. (It is worth noting that some of these long-shot races did end up unexpectedly close, particularly AL-03 and CA-50.)

The contrast between the Democrats’ good results in Virginia and the disappointing calls in Minnesota shows that the night played out very differently in different states. In some states, Republicans held their own surprisingly well; in others, there was the hint of a Democratic wave that appeared to submerge Republicans. In New Mexico, both open seats fell in Democratic hands by substantial margins.

In New York, Democrats picked-up the state Senate and three House seats, leaving only 3 districts out of 29 in Republican hands. In Pennsylvania, Democrats unexpectedly saved PA-11, saved three other endangered incumbents and picked-up PA-03. Finally, Chris Shays’ defeat in CT-04 means that there are no more Republicans representing New England in the House.

All of this goes to say that Democrats have plenty of congressional victories to celebrate, and that they made great progress in certain states even if they did not reach their full potential nationally. They also protected their class of freshmen fairly well: Who could have predicted in December 2006 that Republicans would only be able to recapture 3 of their seats (plus LA-06, which they had lost in May and where the Democratic vote split between two candidates)?

Progressives will also be pleased that all losing Democrats are blue dogs and that the more liberal endangered incumbents (especially Carol Shea-Porter) survived. Their true source of heartbreak will be found in state propositions, where gay rights foes swept through Florida (with 62% of the vote), Arizona (despite a loss 2 years ago), Arkansas and seemingly California. Republicans will lament the failure of abortion proposals, however, whether South Dakota’s ban or California’s Prop 4. It was also a good night for transit proponents, while Massachusetts rejected an income tax repeal and Colorado rejected the “right to work” amendment opposed by labor.


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Final guidelines, and a call for predictions

This is it! After months of polls, controversies, superdelegates and primaries, veepstakes and conventions, ads, debates, we have finally reached Election Day, its presidential election, 35 Senate contests and 435 House races - as well as countless state-level battles over gubernatorial mansions, initiatives and state legislatures.

In fact, the first ballots have already been counted, as New Hampshire’s tiny Dixville Notch kept up its 60-year tradition of getting all its registered voters to cast a ballot shortly after midnight, allowing the locality to immediately count the votes. The results are in: Obama prevails with 15 votes versus 6 for John McCain- the first time in 40 years that a Democrat has prevailed in Dixville Notch! Hart’s Location quickly followed with the full results of its locality, with Obama besting Obama besting McCain 17 votes to 10, with 2 write-ins for Ron Paul. So with 2 precincts reporting, Obama has banked 32 votes to McCain’s 16 and Paul’s 2!

So now that I have updated my latest ratings (I will post a last wave of House updates tomorrow morning, though these changes have already been incorporated in my House page), feel free to log in some of your predictions:

  • What will be the presidential election’s popular vote and electoral college breakdown? What red states will Barack Obama win? Will McCain win any blue states?
  • How many seats will Democrats pick-up in the Senate - and which? Will Republicans win Louisiana? Will Georgia be decided tomorrow or will it go to a runoff (if the latter, which candidate will come out ahead tomorrow)?
  • How many seats will Democrats pick-up in the Senate? How about Republicans? I imagine not everyone will want to try to list all seats that will switch over - but that’s obviously the sign of a true political junkie? And what Republican incumbents that are barely on our radar screen risk being upset tomorrow?
  • North Carolina and Washington’s gubernatorial races are among the tightest elections in the country - certainly hard to predict.
  • Any other predictions are more than welcome!

As a guideline (with some of my predictions along the way), here are my latest presidential ratings:

  • Safe McCain: AL, AK, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE (AL and 3), OK, UT, TN, TX, WY (99)
  • Likely McCain: AR, LA, NE-01, SC, SD, WV (29)
  • Lean McCain: AZ, NE-02
  • Toss-up: FL, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND (85)
  • Lean Obama: OH (20)
  • Likely Obama: CO, IA, ME (all 4), MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, PA, VA, WI (96)
  • Safe Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (185)

If I absolutely had to allocate the toss-up races (with the understanding that they are extemely tight and that this is only for the fun of predictions), I would give Florida, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina to Obama and Georgia, Indiana and North Dakota to McCain - giving Obama 367 electoral votes. (If African-American turnout is as strong tomorrow as some Democrats are hoping, Georgia and Indiana would fall in Obama’s column).

In the Senate:

  • Safe/likely GOP (total of 38)
  • Lean GOP: KY, MS (40)
  • Toss-up: GA, MN
  • Lean Dem: NC, AK, LA (58)
  • Likely/Safe Dem: VA, NM, CO, NH, OR (total of 55)

If I had to allocate the toss-up races, I would give Minnesota to Al Franken and send Georgia into a runoff. All lean races remain highly competitive, and an opposite result remains very much possible in all of them. That is particularly the case in Alaska, where no one can really say what Ted Stevens’ true prospects are, and Mississippi, where a confusing ballot combined to a surge in black turnout make for an unpredictable race.

In the gubernatorial races:

  • Likely GOP: IN, VT
  • Toss-up: NC, WA
  • Likely Dem: MO

If I had to allocate the toss-up races, I would give both North Carolina and Washington to the Democrats. Christine Gregoire and Bev Perdue would be in a far weaker situation in any other year, but the anti-GOP mood could be enough for them to eke out a victory.

In the House:

  • Likely GOP: 24 R, 1 D
  • Lean GOP: 12 R, 2 D
  • Toss-up: 18 R, 7 D
  • Lean Dem: 12 R, 3 D
  • Likely Dem: 7 R, 13 D

As I have said before, House ratings are very different from those of other races as we can be almost sure that at least a couple of likely retention seats will switch parties. There is simply not enough data about some of these races to have a clear indication of where they are likely to go: We could see huge upsets in one or two GOP-held seats in California , in SC-01 or in IA-04. My outlook is be for Democrats to gain somewhere between 25 and 33 seats (with more pick-ups possible).

Anyone else?


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The Wright card: Too little, too late?

Last spring, John McCain told his campaign that the campaign would not invoke Jeremiah Wright and he has stuck to that promise ever since, frustrating many Republicans who saw Wright as their single best weapon to disqualify the Illinois Senator.

That using Wright would have indeed hurt Obama was never a sure thing, of course. The Democrat’s general election numbers noticeably dropped in March when the controversy first erupted, but he effectively put the issue behind him with his speech on race. But many Republicans were hoping that some outside group would take it upon itself to bring up Wright, allowing the GOP to hit Obama on the issue without McCain’s taking hit for breaking his promise.

Let’s be honest: We all thought this was bound to happen. The only question in most people’s minds were who and when.

Yet, the cavalry did not come, and no well-funded independent group emerged to do either campaign’s dirty work. Until the past week, that is, as two different Wright-related ads have gone up on air in the final stretch before the election. The first came courtesy the National Republican Trust PAC, and it labels Obama “too radical, too risky:”

It was not clear at first whether this group was intending to go up with a real ad buy or whether it was merely looking for free publicity, but news that the group has spent $6,5 million leaves no doubt that there was some serious money put behind this ad, ensuring that voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania are exposed to it in the campaign’s final week.

A few days ago, a second ad popped up - this one released by the Pennsylvania Republican Party, a fascinating development as it suggests that the GOP’s official structure does not think of itself as bound by McCain’s rules and is willing to take the risk of a more direct connection being drawn to the Arizona Senator:

It appears that this ad is not airing widely, as a Republican official admits that the primary goal was to get free publicity. But the PA GOP’s attempts to make news at least confirms what we have been observing for the past 10 days: Most of the action is concentrated on Pennsylvania, a state McCain chose as his last stand. In fact, TPM reports that the Republican Jewish Coalition is sending a Wright-mailer to Pennsylvania households, accusing Obama of associating with “friends and advisors” that hold “anti-Israel views.”

The mailer serves as a reminder of a story that we heard a lot about throughout the spring and summer but much less so over the past two months: Obama’s problem with Jewish Americans. As the general election unfolded, this constituency appears to have reconnected with its Democratic roots, particularly after McCain announced Sarah Palin’s pick (witness Ed Koch’s conversion into a committed Obama supporter).

For the Wright card to have been effective, Republican forces should have brought it weeks ago - not at the last minute. After all, this is not a new topic, so the media was not about to provide any Wright attacks as much free publicity as it did in March or as it did in 2004 with the Swift Boat ads. The Wright card could certainly have backfired against Republicans - especially at this time of economic crisis - but for it to have any chance to work it had to be applied with enough persistence to truly put Obama on the defensive and undermine his favorability ratings. (Is there any better proof that the Obama campaign is not worried about these ads than the fact that they are not bothering offering any response?)

Instead, most recent polls now suggest that Obama is closing the campaign with a far higher favorability rating than when the general election began, which suggests that the McCain campaign’s efforts to connect Obama to terrorists, to Ayers or to sex education for kindergarteners failed to deteriorate Obama’s public image. This might be the single most important reason Obama is favored going into tomorrow’s vote.


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13th presidential ratings: One last attempt at finding McCain’s path to victory

We have been talking so much about Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina that it would also seem that Barack Obama’s electoral fortunes depend on these highly competitive states. If that were true, we would be in for quite an unpredictable Election Day indeed.

Unfortunately for McCain, a sweep of those states - even if we add Florida, Ohio, Georgia to his column - would get him no closer to the fundamental challenge he faces if he wants to reach 270 electoral votes: closing the gap in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia.

As it is looking increasingly unlikely that McCain can save Colorado given the huge share of the electorate that has already voted, all Obama needs is to hold on to Pennsylvania. The battle of Pennsylvania is sometimes portrayed as a sign McCain is still on the offensive, but this is the ultimate defensive move dictated by the need to survive.

Even if McCain can tap into the discontent of culturally conservative Democratic voters and somehow prove all Pennsylvania polls wrong, he would still face an uphill climb as he would also have to win one of Colorado, Nevada and Virginia - all states that are currently rated likely Obama. This is certainly not an easy proposal, especially in the two Southwestern states in which Obama has already locked in big majorities in early voting. And a McCain comeback in Pennsylvania would not necessarily mean that he has closed the gap in Virginia since the electoral coalitions Obama needs to assemble to win both states are different enough.

All of this suggests that Pennsylvania and Virginia are the states to watch tomorrow night, as it is difficult to imagine - though still technically possible - that Obama loses the election if he wins either of those states.

None of this is to underestimate the importance of Florida and Ohio: Both states lean ever so slightly towards the Democratic nominee, and a win in either state would surely guarantee him an electoral college majority. (The same is true in any of the other competitive red states, and the Obama organization is so dominant in some of them that for him to win there but not in other states would not surprise me.) But saying that the election’s fate is in the hands of Florida, Ohio or in states other than Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado and Nevada would be overstating McCain’s chances of survival.

Since the first presidential ratings I posted on June 4th, there has been an unmistakable shift towards Obama. Of the nine states that were then rated toss-ups (CO, MI, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, VA and WI), eight are now in the likely Obama column and one in the lean Obama column; all states that were rated lean McCain are now toss-ups, and all states that were rated lean Obama are now likely Obama. And the GOP base has significantly eroded: Of the eight states that were listed as likely McCain, four are now toss-ups - as would Alaska have been had McCain not picked Sarah Palin as his running-mate.

Without further delay, here are the thirteenth presidential ratings (states whose ratings have been changed towards Obama are colored blue, those whose ratings have been changed towards McCain are colored red):

  • Safe McCain: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, Utah, Tennessee, Texas, Wyoming (99 EVs)
  • Likely McCain: Arkansas, Louisiana, Nebraska’s 1st district, South Carolina, South Dakota, West Virginia (29 EVs)
  • Lean McCain: Arizona, Nebraska’s 2nd district (11 EVs)
  • Toss-up: Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota (85 EV)
  • Lean Obama: Ohio (20 EVs)
  • Likely Obama: Colorado, Iowa, Maine (at-large + 1st district + 2nd district), Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin (96 EVs)
  • Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington (185 EVs)

This gives us the following map and totals:

  • Safe + Likely Obama: 286 electoral votes
  • Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 311
  • Toss-up: 85
  • Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 142
  • Safe + Likely McCain: 128

I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past week:

Arizona, likely McCain to lean McCain: This seemingly last-minute development was a long time coming: Arizona polls have shown a surprisingly tight race for months, and McCain’s first signs of vulnerability came when he failed to break 50% in the state’s primary on Super Tuesday. But no one really believed that McCain’s home state could possibly be that competitive and, despite some occasional noise about an optimistic state Democratic Party, the Obama campaign did not make a move. Until this week, that is, when a big wave of polls showing McCain’s lead within the margin of error forced Obama into action; his campaign bought air time in Arizona and mobilized state volunteers.

It’s hard to think of a scenario in which Arizona is the decisive state, but at the very least, Arizona’s yearning to be a battleground state is a very good sign for Democrats in future presidential elections, and it will pay dividends at the House level, where Democrats are poised to pick up one to two seats after the two they won over in 2006.

Georgia, lean McCain to toss-up: It’s hard to believe that we are thinking of Georgia as a battleground state - let alone as a toss-up - but until Republicans prove that they are enthusiastic enough to actually vote, they are facing a catastrophe in the state: More than half of the electorate cast an early ballot, and African-Americans make up 35% of those voters - up from the 25% they represented in 2004. If strong Republican and white turnout on Tuesday does not push that number south to 30-31%, Barack Obama will be ideally placed for a (somewhat unexpected) pick-up. His campaign had invested in the state throughout the summer but went dark in mid-September, in the aftermath of the GOP convention; they are now back, airing at least one of ad tying McCain to President Bush.

Louisiana, safe McCain to likely McCain: Merely mentioning this state in the context of presidential politics would have been unthinkable just a month ago, but in the current climate an upset cannot be ruled out in any states that have a history of voting Democratic. Of course, Louisiana’s situation is complicated by the post-Katrina migrations, and no one truly knows whether the African-American population is large enough for a Democrat to pull off victory in a competitive race here. Mary Landrieu’s fate is, of course, far more dependent on this question than Obama’s.

Nevada, toss-up to likely Obama: Different forces have conspired to make Nevada look like a likely Obama pick-up. For one, he dominates among Hispanics by margins that Al Gore and John Kerry would be jealous of, as well as among the West’s independent voters, who have always been one of his strongest constituencies. Polls released over the past 10 days by CNN/Time, Suffolk, Research 2000 show Obama has jumped to a commanding lead that rivals his advantage in Colorado. As if this was not enough, early voting is looking very promising for Obama. In Clark County and Washoe County, which together account for 87% of registered voters, the gap between Democratic and Republican early voters is far larger than that of the electorate at large; if conservatives do not vote at a far higher pace, the GOP could not only lose the state at the presidential level but also one or both of its House seats.

New Hampshire, lean Obama to likely Obama: I am weary of underestimating McCain in this state, but all polls have shown a very clear trend towards the Democrat over the past few weeks, who now leads by double-digits in most polls. The UNH/WMUR, surely the most trusted poll in the state, just released its final survey showing Obama leading by 11% and holding a big lead among independents. Who knew New Hampshire independents would prove McCain’s undoing?

New Jersey, likely Obama to safe Obama: Once upon a time, Republicans believed that the September 11th effect would swing the Garden State their way, and Bush made a lot of progress in this state between 2000 and 2004. How times have changed, as Obama has now seized a dominant lead in nearly all of the state’s polling. New Jersey typically flirts with Republicans for a while before giving itself to a Democrat reluctantly, but even that pattern hasn’t really held true this year, as McCain only came close to making the state competitive in the immediate aftermath of the Republican convention.

South Carolina, safe McCain to likely McCain: Just as in Louisiana, an Obama victory in South Carolina would mean that the Democratic nominee is on his way to an electoral college landslide of well above 400 EVs. But if Obama clinches a 10% win in the popular vote, it’s not inconceivable that states like South Carolina would fall in his column. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed McCain leading by only 6% in a state Bush carried by 17%. The boost in African-American turnout that we have been seeing in other states’ early voting could help Obama close the gap by a few more points.

Washington, likely Obama to safe Obama: Just as he believed he could put the Northeast in play, John McCain once had ambitions in the Pacific Northwest. But Barack Obama’s uncommon strength among the region’s independents (evidenced by the fact that this was the one region in which Obama ran consistently ahead of Hillary Clinton in general election polls) undercut McCain’s potential; also helping Obama is the fact that blue-collar voters in the West are less resistant, making it easier for him to unify the Democratic base. The result is an impressive lead that would have made Al Gore jealous. The main question in this state is whether Obama’s margin of victory is big enough to guarantee that Gregoire survives.

West Virginia, lean McCain to likely McCain: The site of Hillary Clinton’s greatest triumph was the most unlikely of states for Barack Obama to score an upset; the state is filled with blue-collar white Democrats who have not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate for more than a decade. But a wave of polls in late September and early October showed a highly competitive contest, and Obama (presumably not sure of what to do with the millions he had in the bank) decided to invest in the state’s airwaves. However, Obama has been unable to make more progress over the past few weeks, and most polls that have been released over the past three weeks have McCain solidifying his position and holding a lead that hovers around the 10% mark. Obama was not even able to force McCain to spend time playing defense here. That said, that the state even got on the list of potential battleground states is a testament to how much the economic crisis transformed the presidential race.

History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:


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Nine factors that keep Democrats anxious and Republicans hopeful

Less than 48 hours from polls closing in most swing states, Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win the presidency. Renowned polling outlets (Pew, Gallup, CNN/Opinion Research, CBS News) are now releasing their final national surveys, and they, alongside nearly all polling firms, stand being discredited if McCain prevails. Obama is such a clear favorite, in fact, that it is hard to find McCain a path to victory. How could he close such a large national lead? Even if he were to somehow win Pennsylvania, could he also save the myriad of red states that are leaning towards his opponent?

It is worth looking at possible factors that could account for an unexpectedly strong McCain showing on Tuesday, so I have put together a list of items that keep some Democrats awake at night. Needless to say, for McCain to win nearly all polls must be consistently understating his support, perhaps because of some flaw in their turnout model or because of racial factors; McCain would also need to convince most if not all voters who remained undecided heading in the final week-end. Unlikely, yes, but there are still plausible scenarios.

(The same exact exercise could be done in reverse, as there is a long list of factors that might be leading to Obama’s support being understated by some pollsters, such as cell phone users not being taken into account or the continuation of the surge in African-American turnout we have been seeing in early voting. But given that Obama is already favored, there isn’t much of a point in finding him more paths to victory than he already has. I am also giving less air than I would typically to counter-arguments against these scenarios, as I am here trying to test the plausibility of scenarios that would allow McCain to win.)

1) Race: Will there be a Bradley effect? This is a question that has been keeping everyone occupied ever since Obama wrapped up his party’s nomination. There has been little to no instances of a gap between a black candidate’s polling performance and final results over the past decade (see Harold Ford’s strong closing, for instance), and I argued in late September that Obama should have little reason to worry about a drop in his performance on Election Day because it is important not to confuse voters who are supporting McCain because of racial factors and voters who are lying to pollsters about supporting Obama because of shame about their racial prejudice. The former factor certainly exists, but it has nothing to do with the Bradley effect; it is the latter we are concerned with.

However, it is unlikely that polls could as off as they would need to be for McCain to actually have a fighting chance if at least some racial factor was not in play. And there are scenarios under which a Bradley effect could matter: There has never been an African-American candidate running for this high an office; so do historical patterns really matter? Furthermore, those areas in which a Bradley effect would be most powerful (if it manifests itself) are precisely those areas McCain has to do very well in on Tuesday (starting with Western Pennsylvania, places like Scranton, Southeast Ohio, Southern Virginia) while the GOP has more or less conceded states with less racial polarization in which a Bradley effect is less likely to occur (Colorado).

2) Undecided voters are whites reluctant to vote for a black candidate: This is a variation of the previous scenario, but it does not concern Obama’s support being overstated as much as McCain’s support being understated. Instead of lying to pollsters, some voters who should be voting for Obama but realize that they are not doing so for racial reasons might be saying they are undecided. That some polls are now insisting that undecideds are disproportionately white (for instance Mason Dixon’s Virginia poll) opens the door to this possibility.

3) Undecided voters are disgruntled Republicans who will end up coming home: This is the more plausible scenario according to which undecided voters will heavily break towards the Republican. And it is a somewhat convincing one: Most of the focus groups that were being conducted after the debates featured a disproportionate number of Bush voters or of conservative-leaning voters who were disgruntled with the incumbent Administration and looking for a change but not quite sure they can go all the way and vote for Obama. Democrats say that if they haven’t gone home until now, they are unlikely to suddenly feel comfortable enough to vote for McCain and they will at worst stay home. Republicans hope that the recent focus on Obama’s character, his tax policies and alleged socialism will get those voters to stick with McCain (see #8). One problem with this scenario, however, is that some polls (for instance the latest CBS News survey) suggest that there as many undecided Democrats as they are undecided Republicans.

4) Persuadable voters are likely to be weary of unified government: Voters that remain truly persuadable in the final days of an election are unlikely to be partisans, and they are more likely to like divided government in Washington, DC. As reports of an Obama juggernaut and expanding congressional majorities for Democrats pile up, could these voters grow weary of giving Obama too much of a mandate and move towards McCain? (The Denver Post appears to find at least one such voter.) I have argued before that the reflex of a voter who wants to vote Democratic but is worried about unified government would be to vote Republican at the congressional level rather than in the presidential election, but predictions of an Obama triumph have reached such fever pitch that such an effect cannot be ruled out.

5) Complacency: The Obama campaign is worried enough that reports of an inevitable victory could deflate Democratic turnout that they are insisting that the race is tightening, going as far as to send an e-mail to Pennsylvania volunteers warning that the campaign is not meeting its phone-banking targets. The high level of early voting Democratic turnout suggests that Obama’s base is hyper-motivated, however, and that the burden is on Republican voters to meet the Democrats’ enthusiasm rather than rely on lower-than-expected Democratic turnout.

6) Electorate’s breakdown is not as favorable to Democrats as some predict: Not all pollsters agree on what turnout model should be used to predict the election. While some surveys contain a wide gap in their partisan breakdown (suggesting that the electorate will be more Democratic than it was in 2004), others weigh their results with a breakdown far more favorable to Republicans (this is the case of Zogby, for instance). While Mason-Dixon provides very little information about its internal numbers, it seems safe to say that this trustworthy pollster believes that the electorate will favor Democrats by the extent some are predicting - leading to the Republican lean of most of its state polls. Whose turnout model proves right is, of course, the $1,000,000 question.

7) First-time, sporadic or young voters do not show up: This is a complement to factor #5, as it also concerns differing turnout models. The more first-time and sporadic voters go to the polls, the more the electorate resembles a registered voter model rather than a likely voter model, the better it is for Obama. But these are voters who historically tend to not vote (which is why they are defined as sporadic…), making Obama’s electoral coalition somewhat more unstable. As for young voters, they have broken the hearts of candidates who have relied on them time and time again. Will 2008 be different? Democrats say it will be, but we have heard that tune before.

8) The spotlight has been on Obama: We always knew that McCain’s hope of winning rested in disqualifying Obama and focusing the spotlight on the Illinois Senator - and this is exactly what happened in October. As Obama took a commanding lead, the spotlight shifted exclusively on him, his tax policies, his socialist tendencies, William Ayers. There has been very little comparable probing of John McCain over the past few weeks; sure, Obama has been running attacking his opponent on health care on TV airwaves, but the constant Democratic offensive of August and September has died down. Combined with the sense that Obama is heavily favored, this means that voters will be thinking about Obama in the final days rather than about McCain, increasing the latter’s prospects of coming out as the lesser of two evils. This could especially be the case among Republicans who are tempted to vote Obama.

9) Voting problems, malfunctioning machines: Some type of election fraud is obviously the Democrats’ nightmare after the 2000 Florida debacle and the controversies surrounding Ohio and former Secretary of State Blackwell in 2004. Electronic machines are particularly high on the list of Democratic worries.

Beyond the question of fraud, however, there is a whole array of problems that could arise: machines could malfunction, polling places could run out of paper, and precincts could be so swamped by a surge in turnout as to be unable to accommodate everyone. What happens on Tuesday if there is a 10+ hour line in some precincts, as was the case in Georgia during early voting? I noted this morning that the Obama campaign was recruiting volunteer magicians or musicians to entertain voters while they stand in line and make sure that no one leaves the line.

Such problems would disproportionately affect Democrats, as the most deficient machines and the most under-prepared precincts tend to be those in urban, low-income and African-American neighborhoods - all constituents among which Obama needs to perform well.

One key difference from 2004, however, is that Democrats have gained the Secretary of State position in a number of crucial swing states - first and foremost in Ohio, where a number of Jennifer Brunner’s rulings drew criticism from Republicans. In particular, Brunner’s refusal to supply counties with a list of new registrants whose information did not match with state databases prevented thousands of names from being purged from the list and will make it more difficult for Republicans to challenge voters at the polls. (This went all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court, which ruled against the state GOP.) However, Democrats are angry at decisions taken by Colorado and Georgia’s Secretary of States.

What else is keeping Obama supporters up at night? What else is giving Republicans hope?


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Battleground watch: Race heats up in Arizona, McCain scales back turnout efforts

In the final stretch before Election Day, campaigns typically focus on an increasingly narrow list of swing states - but this year new battlegrounds are emerging left and right.

A few weeks ago, West Virginia suddenly looked like a very promising state, and though recent polling has not shown the race to be that competitive, the Obama campaign did buy air time. We also started hearing about a potential Obama investment in Kentucky - though that does not appear to have come to pass.

But the Obama campaign just announced that it would start or resume advertising in three red states: Georgia, North Dakota and McCain’s home state of Arizona. Obama advertised in the first two states throughout the summer, only to scale back his efforts in mid-September when it appeared that McCain was finally putting marginally competitive red states away. But both have now tightened, so much so that the Atlanta Journal Constitution is calling Georgia a nail-biter.

The real stunner, however, is Obama’s decision to make a play for Arizona. No one doubts that Arizona would have been a highly competitive race had the Republican nominee not been the state’s Senator, but it is very rare for a candidate to lose his home state (Al Gore’s failure to hold on to Tennessee cost him dearly, but Gore had not represented his state in years).

But Obama’s strength among Hispanics and among Western independent voters give him a shot at picking-up the state’s 10 electoral votes. A surprising deluge of Arizona polls have been released over the past few days, and nearly all have shown the race within the margin of error. (A new Research 2000 poll shows McCain’s lead down to 1%.)

Et tu, Arizona?

(It is interesting to see that Obama’s ads in the state will be a positive one, whereas he is airing attack ads in Georgia and North Dakota; similarly, Move On is also going up on air in Arizona on Obama’s behalf, also with a positive ad. Democrats apparently do not want to antagonize Arizona voters who have a long relationship with the Republican nominee.)

Whether or not the state will fall to the Obama column is not as important as the fact that the McCain campaign has been forced to schedule its final rally on Monday night in Arizona. That’s right, the very last public event held by McCain before Election Day will not take place in a giant Florida auditorium or against glorious Virginia backdrop - venues that could generate some much-needed momentum for the GOP - but in Arizona, whose 10 electoral votes where the last thing on anyone’s mind until this past week-end.

This development alone summarizes McCain’s predicament: He has been forced to scale back his efforts in all blue states except Pennsylvania (as the latest list of the campaigns’ state by state spending confirms) and has had to invest more and more time defending red states that Obama absolutely does not need but where a victory would seal an electoral college majority: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, even North Carolina - none of these are in the top tier of states that are expected to get Obama above 270, but McCain is so weak in all of them that he has to take time away from Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida - all states he also needs to win!

That the McCain campaign is now forced to implement a national strategy in the hope of narrowing the gap nationally and in the process gain in some of these red states is evident in the remarkable news (reported by the Washington Post) that McCain is scaling back the GOP’s famed 72-hour turnout operation to invest more money on TV ads.

At first, this decision can seem insane: McCain is already facing a huge organizational disadvantage, so why would he dig himself in a deeper hole? But his campaign has no other choice: The 72-hour program is meant to win close races, and it can certainly perform beautifully (and a large share of Bush’s victory can be attributed to his top-notch turnout effort). It is not meant to move the race by more than a couple of points - and that is McCain’s task now. He has to close a high single-digit gap in Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania and perhaps Nevada. Unless he shifts momentum, convinces undecided voters and some voters who have already settled on Obama, no amount of organizational muscle will allow him to mount a comeback.

In other important news from battleground states

  • The North Carolina Board of Elections has agreed to extend early voting by four hours on Saturday, meaning that voters can cast a ballot until 5pm on the first day of the week-end. Democrats were worried that thousands of voters would be left unable to cast a ballot had the polls closed at 1pm. This follows a decision by Florida Governor Charlie Crist to extend voting hours by four hours a day all week.
  • A federal judge ordered Pennsylvania’s Secretary of the Commonwealth to distribute paper ballots.
  • In Colorado, more than 35,000 new voters who requested mail-in-ballots are at risk of having their ballot disqualified because of voter identification rules.
  • In a blow to the GOP’s plans to challenge voters at the polls on Tuesday, a judge ruled that Ohio residents do not have to have an actual address to cast a ballot and that a homeless voter is eligible if his only “residence” is a park bench.

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Quite a day: Obama celebrates Americana, Bill offers testimony and GOP attacks on experience

We might be in the final stretch of the election, but it feels like we are right back in the middle of August - when Barack Obama was being called “Barack America” by his running mate and John McCain, unencumbered by Sarah Palin, based his entire campaign on blasting Obama’s lack of experience.

We won’t know whether Barack Obama’s 30-minute infomercial has any impact until we get a sense of how many people watched it. But at the very least it allowed Obama to suck all of the oxygen out of the room - a huge benefit given that McCain needs to exploit every single minute of the next five days to turn the tide and discredit Obama.

With this massive ad buy (followed by Obama’s first joint event with Bill Clinton), Obama controlled the entire news cycle - not to mention that tonight’s events will continue being discussed tomorrow, shutting down McCain for a while longer.

The infomercial was meant to reassure those who still harbor doubts about the Democratic nominee, make them see him as a familiar, comforting and typically American figure. “My mother, she told herself,” says Obama in the video, “my son is an American so he has to understand what that means.” American flags were on display throughout the 30 minutes, and the video was filled with the touching (and often tragic) stories of middle-class Americans.

The video was able to create a sense of connection between Obama and the average voters who were showcased by having Obama be the narrator of their life stories. Not only did that make Obama seem personally invested in helping the middle class, it also created a powerful connector between the ad’s personal segments and those devoted to substantive discussions. The infomercial made Obama’s policy proposals look like direct responses to the plight of the middle class.

It is no coincidence that bread and butter issues were at the center of this video. Sure, there was a segment devoted to national security, but the main themes were health care (a lot of health care), education, taxes, jobs - all issues that are the chief reason Obama is in such a commanding position, issues that have helped move Reagan Democrats to Obama’s side, issues that have greatly contributed in pushing a large number of disaffected Republicans in the undecided column.

Tonight’s segment was not meant to get out of the vote or energize the base, it was Obama’s final¬† attempt to make his case to undecided voters - most of which at this point lean conservative. The Obama we saw tonight was the pragmatist problem-server of the 2004 convention speech and of the beginning of the primary campaign, not the more partisan Obama of the past few months. From now on, both campaigns are likely to switch to GOTV and focus on motivating the base; the last few days before Election Day are not the time in which campaigns go after undecided voters.

All of this said, I don’t think the infomercial was a home-run for Obama either. For one, we will have to see whether there is some backlash among the electorate - after all, the McCain campaign has been accusing the Democrat of being too excessive for months now. Obama’s attempts to make himself look presidential might vindicate in the minds of some voters the GOP’s argument that the Democratic nominee think he has already won the election: It almost looked like Obama was addressing the nation from the Oval Office! And while the video’s production quality was undoubtedly top notch, some parts seemed a bit disjointed.

But Obama had another opportunity tonight to reassure the voters who are looking to vote for him but are worried about this or that attribute: his first joint appearance with Bill Clinton. The former President off delivered a great performance, and all of his political skills were focused on offering the most sincere sounding testimony on behalf of the man who beat his wife. Clinton was half-turned towards Obama and half-turned towards the audience, creating a bond between the two that only a politician as talented as Clinton could portray on demand.

Clinton looked fully committed to convincing viewers that Obama was ready to take on his legacy - and the fact that such a direct testimony did not come for months made it all the more powerful. (Of course, Clinton has a personal stake in this as well, as he wants to regain his position as a popular elder within the Democratic Party. Obama returned the favor by repeatedly emphasizing how strong the country was during Clinton’s presidency, something he was not so willing to say a year ago.)

Meanwhile, the RNC and the McCain campaign are making a last ditch effort at disqualifying Obama - and they are pushing hard on an argument they abandoned in late August and picked up again two weeks with the RNC’s empty chair spot: experience. The first ad, released by the McCain campaign, makes its argument as clearly as possible - Obama “lacks the experience” and he is “not ready” - and closes with a curious word - “yet:”

The ad is very similar to one the McCain campaign released last week, the main difference being the use of the word “yet.” I agree with Chuck Todd that “yet” is directed at those voters who want the change Obama represents but are afraid that he is too much of a risk today: He will still get his chance, the ad is saying.

The RNC’s ad, meanwhile, is more brutal because it intends to raise voters’ adrenaline by getting them afraid about the future:

The problem for the GOP is that voters feel more comfortable with Obama than they did a month ago and that these ads might be coming too late.  As I explained last week, the McCain campaign is solely responsible for having abandoned an argument that was working - but abandon it they did. In fact, the financial crisis helped Obama close the gap on the experience question.

Obama and McCain were tested in the middle of September, and most October polls have shown that voters gave McCain very low marks on his handling of the situation and that they came away with the impression that Obama was more apt at handling a crisis than his opponent! Given that startling change in public opinion, these new ads are as likely to backfire on McCain as they are to hurt Obama.


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From quasi-terrorist to 1970s-style liberal

The McCain campaign has improved its offensive game over the past week. Whether or not their current attacks are effective, at least they are consistent - which is much more than we can say of the GOP’s strategy over the past 8 weeks. Unfortunately for Republicans, this change probably comes too late.

Over the summer, McCain was making progress by questioning Obama’s readiness to lead, but his campaign got distracted by petty controversies like “lipstick on a pig.” In any other year, the GOP might have pulled off a victory by keeping Obama on the defensive with such shiny objects, but the year’s environment is too toxic for Republicans to win with such minor attacks. The task Republicans were facing this year was simple: disqualify Barack Obama to such an extent that voters who were looking to vote Democratic would not dare vote for this Democrat.

As the experience argument was thrown out of the window at the end of August, the McCain campaign pivoted to attacking Obama’s character, and William Ayers became the focal point of the Republican offensive. But we can now say that those attacks largely backfired. For one, they were poorly executed: The McCain campaign launched vicious one-liners while attempting to stay clean and not quite going all the way, thus suffering the drawbacks of going negative without enjoying the benefits.

Second, the timing was atrocious. They might have been more effective had the financial crisis not forced an unusually issue-driven campaign starting in mid-September, but in the aftermath of the financial crisis, voters did not care about character attacks. Third, there were simply not enough data points for Republicans to exploit in their attempts to make Obama into a dangerous radical: McCain had put Wright off limits, so all the GOP had left was Ayers and a whole array of Internet-fueled conspiracy theories. No wonder the McCain-Palin suddenly became parades of hatred.

Ever since the third debate, Republicans have switched gears to more policy-centered attacks. Rather than alluding to Obama the quasi-terrorist, they are now aiming to paint the Illinois Senator into a classical 1970s liberal. In fact, they are taking their criticism of Obama’s economic priorities so far that even that is becoming a charge on his character and his Americanism.

At the very least, the GOP has more data points to make Obama look ultra-liberal; say, Obama’s votes in the Illinois State Senate, statements he made while around Hyde Park or those National Journal voting ratings. Furthermore, attacking Obama on taxes feels more relevant in these times of economic crisis than the Ayers craze that had seized the GOP last week.

Finally, the Right has spent decades accusing liberals of being economy-killing tax-raisers, and they are now drawing on that repertoire to discredit Obama. Taxes, spreading the wealth and redistribution: McCain’s Joe the Plumber routine has become quite the caricature, but it has the merit of simplicity and of familiarity - two things Republicans attacks on Obama had lacked ever since they stopped the celebrity ads.

All of this has to be maddening for Republicans to watch: Why did the McCain campaign wait so long before articulating this offensive? Why did their waste their time since Labor Day, particularly if they were not willing to push their attacks to fruition, particularly if McCain was not willing to push Ayers more than he did in that third debate?

Attacking Obama on taxes might not work (I have repeatedly argued that it could make Obama look like just another typical Democrat, which might be exactly what voters are looking for this year and what some voters have been worried he is not), but at least it is something - and the McCain campaign has certainly been willing to take this attack all the way to its illogical conclusion: Marxism.

Now, not only does it feel too late for Republicans to force a whole new narrative to take hold around Obama, but the Illinois Senator has had the time - and the resources - to turn the tables on his opponent and accuse him of wanting to raise taxes by taxing health care benefits. Obama’s offensive has been largely under the radar in the sense that he is primarily propagating it through a multi-million ad campaign without necessarily releasing all those ads to the press. But most polls show this has led Obama to cut into the traditional GOP advantage on taxes. Under those circumstances, can McCain really put Obama on the defensive by calling him a socialist?

Another interesting question is how all of this will affect an Obama Administration. Some like David Sirota are saying that Obama will have a mandate for truly progressive governance if he wins while being attacked as a tax-raising socialist; if voters heard him talk about “spreading the wealth” and gave him a resounding victory, what does that say about their alleged antipathy towards social democracy?

Another possibility is that the way in which Obama has framed some of these issues will make it more difficult for progressive reform to be implemented and will strengthen right-wing economics, for instance his accepting the premise that tax cuts should be a priority. That is also the case on health care, where Obama has been spending millions telling voters that government-run health care is a bad idea or insisting that “choice” is an important value in the health care debate. Those have long been conservative talking points against health care reform, and Obama’s attempts at appropriating them had become an issue in the Democratic primaries (particularly in Paul Krugman’s columns).

Unless something dramatic happens over the next week, we will soon move on from discussing how the Right views Obama to debating which of the Left’s two views of Obama corresponds to his true persona.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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