Archive for the 'MO-04' Category

DCCC seeks to counter expectation of mounting Dem retirements

Published
by
Taniel
on December 15, 2009
in MN-07, MO-04, PA-17, SC-05, TN-04 and TX-17
. 7 Comments

Following the streak of four Democratic retirements in as many weeks, all eyes are on veteran lawmakers who represent marginal districts and who might be tempted to follow the likes of John Tanner and Brat Gordon out the door. Today, the DCCC pushed back by getting a number of such Democrats to go on the record as ruling out a retirement.

There are a number of reasons the DCCC would want to counter the growing expectations that it will face a mounting number of Democratic retirements. For one, this can slow down the narrative of an embattled party that risks losing its majority, which would only create a downward spiral, depress donors and embolden Republicans. Second, the NRCC has been circling around around any Democrats who are mentioned as a potential retirees in the hope of pressuring them into retirement; for a congressman to go on the record as committed to seeking another term can get them temporarily off the GOP’s priority list. Third, the expectation that a congressman will retire can give momentum to his declared opponents, who will raise money off of the rumors that they’ll be running in an open seat and thus be stronger candidates if the incumbent remains in the race after all.

The most definitive and trustworthy push back came from Rep. Chet Edwards, who occupies the most Republican district represented by a Democrat: It is fairly incredible that he managed to survive Tom DeLay’s redistricting, which put him in a district that gave Bush 70% of the vote in 2004 and gave John McCain 67% of the vote last year. Needless to say, an open seat in TX-17 would be a near-certain GOP pick-up. Thankfully for the DCCC, Edwards’s camp made it clear today he will be on the 2010 ballot.

Why do I say this development is the most definitive of the list? Texas’s filing period has already started, and the deadline is coming up in just 3 weeks! It is impossible Edwards (who is no Lieberman) would be bluffing this late in the process, so this is one announcement Democrats can trust.

Second is Rep. Collin Peterson, the powerful Minnesota Blue Dog who chairs the Agriculture Committee. Just a few days ago, Peterson hinted that he would not make a final decision until February but he released a statement today blasting those who would suggest that this waiting period is anything but a formality: “I’m running for re-election and anyone who knows me knows that what I’m doing now is what I’ve always done. My paperwork is on file and in February I’ll make an official announcement.”

Third, fourth and fifth are Rep. Ike Skelton, Rep. Tim Holden and Rep. Lincoln Davis whose spokespeople told the press that their bosses would seek another term next year. All three represent red district. Davis might be getting lonely, since two of his fellow Tennessee Democrats announced they would leave Congress in recent weeks; Holden is still relatively young (52), but he was on the NRCC’s list of potential retirees; Skelton, finally, is the 78-year old chair of the House Armed Services Committee. His retirement would have not only sent shock waves through the Democrats’ seniority ranks, but also given the GOP a golden shot at a district that gave McCain 61% of the vote.

We should continue to track of these incumbents (except Edwards, and arguably Peterson, who made it pretty clear he expects to run again). Spokespeople routinely insist that their boss will run for re-election, and it does not always play out that way. After all, incumbents like Holden and Skelton might be hoping to get the GOP off their back while they finish making up their mind. That said, none of them were forced to come out with such statements and they must be at the very least leaning against retiring if they did; it should also calm anxious DCCC officials and give pause to the growing narrative about panic in Blue Dog ranks.

On the other hand, we also learned today that Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt is not committing to running in 2010; this is I believe the first time we get confirmation that he is mulling a retirement. This would be a particularly big blow to Democrats: While seats like TN-6 and LA-3 would be tough holds in any environment, SC-5 (which gave John McCain 53%) is the type of red-leaning district in which the party could have a very good shot at playing defense in a neutral environment.

No open seat doesn’t mean safe seat

Of course, that one of these Democrats chooses not to retire does not mean their districts will remain Democratic. In particular, TX-17 looks like a tough hold. In late November, the NRCC suffered a rare recruitment blow when state Sen. Steve Ogden announced he would not run but businessman Bill Flores is now set to enter the race with his vast fortune: He has already promised half-a-million dollars. This is such a GOP district that any Republican starts with a large share of the vote while Edwards has practically no base to rely on. In 2008, Edwards’s opponent received 46% of the vote after running a low-profile campaign; Flores’s millions could help turn TX-17’s voters against the incumbent and channel conservative anger to ensure Edwards receives less cross-over support than he’s used to.

The NRCC has also been determined to include Skelton to its target list: While the Missouri Democrat has topped 60% in all but one of his reelection races, his district has been trending red - it gave McCain 61% after giving Bush 60% in 2000. Former state Rep. Hartzler, who has devoted herself to socially conservative caucuses, is challenging Skelton; she should not pause much of a challenge in normal conditions but if the environment is as toxic for Democrats as the GOP is hoping, she could motivate the Republican base enough to score an upset.

As for the other names on this list: Lincoln Davis does not seem like he should have that much to fear from physician Scott DesJarlais but his district did go for McCain by 29%, and Tim Holden and Collin Peterson should be out of the GOP’s reach if they indeed seek another term. Neither PA-17 nor MN-07 are conservative enough to be top Republican priorities, and the NRCC did suffer a recruitment failure against Holden.

House: LA-02 firewall helps Dems respond to NRCC offense

Published
by
Taniel
on August 4, 2009
in FL-08, LA-02 and MO-04
. 8 Comments

Second-tier target could rise if conditions deteriorate for Dems

In its continued effort to target incumbents who have long looked safe, the NRCC is trying to add a new seat to their list: MO-04, a staunchly conservative seat that gave McCain 61% of the vote last fall but is represented by a 77-year old Democrat, Ike Skelton.

Skelton is now serving his 17th term and he has topped 60% in all but one of his reelection races. While that suggests the GOP will have a very tough time against him, entrenched congressmen who have forgotten how to run a competitive campaign often make appetizing targets. The NRCC ran radio ads targeting Skelton earlier this year; could they get more traction now that they have landed a credible candidate in the form of Vicky Hartzler?

A former state Rep., Hartzler left the state legislature in 2000, but she remained active in public life even after leaving the state legislature in 2000: She helped lead the state campaign to ban same-sex marriage in 2004 and she published a book called Running God’s Way in 2007. While this does not give her the most formidable of political profiles, it should prove enough for her to attract the support of social conservatives and test Skelton’s vulnerability.

After all, it’s been a while the district’s voters have not had to asked themselves whether they want to vote for a Republican at the congressional level, just as they do in presidential elections. What better time for the GOP to ask that than the midterm election of a Democratic president? In a neutral political environment, Skelton should have little to fear. But if Republicans benefit from favorable political winds, second-tier candidates like Hartzler could be all the NRCC needs to stun longtime Democratic incumbents.

In New Orleans, Cao calls himself a goner

Whatever the political winds in 2010, Democrats are virtually certain to avoid the GOP’s humiliation in 2006, when the party failed to pick-up a single seat: Not only did LA-02 recently become the cycle’s first “lean takeover” seat, but Rep. Cao himself is now acknowledging that he is unlikely to survive the 2010 cycle. “I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career,” Cao said last week after opposing the reform in the Energy and Commerce Committee. “But I have to live with myself,” he added.

This is not the first high-profile vote in which Cao has stayed with Republicans: He also opposed the stimulus and the cap-and-trade bills. In short, he has sided with Republicans on all the priorities of Obama’s presidency. For Cao to survive in such an overwhelmingly Democratic district, he needs voters to think of him as a quasi-Democrat whose party affiliation is only betrayed by his Speaker vote. Yet, he is absolutely not getting there and every single one of those votes is helping seal his fate.

Frankly, Cao might have decided that his re-election prospects are so low that it’s not even worth bothering to take politically prudent votes. Unless another extraordinary set of circumstances unexpectedly occur - for instance Democrats nominating another indicted politician, there’s really little Cao can do that could save his political career.

Bizarrely un-dueling internal polls in FL-08

We have known for months that FL-08 would host one of the hottest races of the cycle: Rep. Allen Grayson has proved to be an outspoken progressive - and Republicans have made dislodging him a top priority. The NRCC generally considers Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty as the top candidate it could field against Grayson, which is what makes the recent releases of springtime surveys particularly interesting.

First, the NRCC leaked an internal poll showing Grayson leading Crotty 37% to 34%, an uncomfortable margin for any incumbent. Yet, the survey also tested potential Crotty negatives, for instance a shady land deal he got from a developer in 2002; The Orlando Sentinel reports the results were not good. Then, the Grayson camp countered with an (April) poll of its own that shows the incumbent leading 46% to 40%.

What I am unclear about is why they would think of this as a response: Campaigns typically respond with an internal poll when it shows a substantially better result. Yet, there is no meaningful difference between a 3% lead and a 6% lead - especially since Grayson is under 50% threshold in both polls. In short, both parties have released polling showing that Grayson is vulnerable (though no more than is expected) and that FL-08 is likely to host a competitive race come 2010.

In aftermath of cap-and-trade vote, NRCC targets 14 other Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2009
in AR-02, CO-04, FL-08, IA-01, IL-11, IN-09, MO-04, NM-02, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, TN-06, VA-05 and VA-09
. 2 Comments

As the House took a high-profile and controversial vote last Friday, we knew what was coming: Attack ads! While many vulnerable Democrats voted against the Waxman-Markey, the NRCC wasted no time going after those who supported it: A new wave of ads and robo-calls targets 14 Democrats who voted for cap-and-trade despite representing red-leaning districts.

Only one Democrat earns the right to be targeted by a TV spot: Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05), an obvious Democratic target whose re-election bid is rated a toss-up in my ratings. The ad starts with footage of Obama saying that his cap-and-trade proposal will result in skyrocketing energy prices and concludes by hitting Perriello for his party loyalty. “Tom Perriello’s voting with Obama and with Pelosi over and over. Call Perriello. Tell him he was wrong to vote for the Pelosi energy tax,” says the narrator:

The 13 other Democrats are being targeted with a radio ad. Here’s the version running against Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02):

The NRCC has two obvious goals. First, drive down the popularity of these incumbents to endanger their 2010 re-election bid. At least eight of these Democrats are considered highly vulnerable; in 2008, they prevailed by winning the support of voters who also chose McCain and the GOP’s priority is to reconquer these ticket-splitter.

Second, scare these Democrats into switching their vote and opposing cap-and-trade if the legislation returns to the House in the form of a conference report. Last week, Waxman-Markey passed by a narrow 219 to 212 margin so all it would take is for 4 representatives to change their mind for the bill to be killed; pressuring those supportive Democrats who represent the most conservative districts is the surest way for the GOP to get there.

Of course, any backlash these Democrats might endure will only be heightened by the party’s reluctance to fully stand behind Waxman-Markey. The narrow margin by which the bill passed and the dozens of Democrats who voted “no” have done as much to make the bill look controversial as anything the NRCC could say. By contrast, legislation that passes on a 245-186 vote will be covered differently by the press and won’t be as likely to become electorally explosive.

Furthermore, it would be silly for these 14 Democrats think that they would suddenly put the cap-and-trade issue behind them if they oppose an eventual conference report: The NRCC would certainly not hold back from pointing out that they voted in favor of initial passage, and such congressmen would only be weighed down by the need to explain their change of heart. Yet, while a flip-flop might be unlikely, there is no doubt that this is what the GOP is aiming at.

How else to explain the presence on this list of Rick Boucher (VA-09), Bart Gordon (TN-06) and Ike Skelton (MO-04)? (The NRCC is running radio against all three.) While all represent districts that gave McCain more than 59% of the vote, they are veteran congressmen elected in 1982, 1984 and 1976, respectively. They are never described as vulnerable and they very rarely show up on such lists. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Baron Hill (IN-09): He is not expected to face a competitive race in 2010 but his conservative voting record makes him a potential vote-switcher.

(In February, the NRCC ran radio ads attacking Gordon and Skelton for supporting the stimulus but the ads were released before the House voted on the conference report; neither flip-flopped on that second vote.)

Another surprise appearance on this list is Bruce Braley (IA-01), a relatively liberal Democrat who represents the only clearly Democratic district of the list: IA-01 went for Gore and Kerry and gave Obama 58% of the vote, so I’m not sure what the NRCC is trying to do here. (He was also included among the targets of those February stimulus ads.)

Besides these five Democrats, the other targeted congressmen are all to some extent vulnerable: John Boccieri (OH-16), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Vic Snyder (AR-02), Zack Space (OH-18) and Harry Teague (NM-02). (I’ve talked enough about these races not to launch in a detailed analysis now, but you can check here for more race-specific information.)

There are some notable absences, like Frank Kratovil (MD-01) and Steve Driehaus (OH-01), but the NRCC is going after at least one other Democrat - Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - by launching robocalls on another topic altogether: NASA. Their attack is rather disingenuous since Kosmas voted against the appropriations bill that cut millions from NASA funding; the GOP circumvents that little problem and attacks her nonetheless for not prevent[ing] that cut.”

(For those more interested in the legislative battle behind Friday’s vote, Politico published an interesting story on Nancy Pelosi’s whip efforts.)

In other House news, the GOP landed a top contender in NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed announced he would take on Rep. Eric Massa, who defeated a Republican incumbent last fall. While Corning is too small a city to make Reed that threatening a candidate (its population hovers around 10,000), his political experience and the NRCC’s enthusiasm for his candidacy make him a very credible challenger. As most of the GOP’s 2010 candidates are likely to do, Reed emphasized fiscal issues and his concern for “irresponsible deficit spending.” Note that the NRCC’s preferred candidate was Assemblyman Brian Kolb, but Kolb decided not to run when he became the state Assembly’s Minority Leader; other Republicans could still jump in, including a pair of state Senators.

The who’s who of vulnerable House Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on February 13, 2009
in CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, IA-01, KS-03, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-25, NY-29, OH-15, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06 and TX-17
. 0 Comments

Ten days ago, the DCCC launched radio ads in 28 congressional districts held by the GOP. The spot attacked vulnerable Republican incumbents for voting against the stimulus bill, in a legislative effort to scare the lawmakers into supporting the bill’s final version and an electoral effort to soften up their support.

Now, it is the NRCC’s turn to go after 30 vulnerable Democratic incumbents for supporting the stimulus. The radio ads accuse the representatives of being fiscally irresponsible and supporting pork spending - Republican talking points that can be effective against these Democratic congressmen since most of them represent red-leaning districts (see list below).

The NRCC’s first order of business in this new cycle has to be rallying the Republican base against Democrats who represent them, particularly in areas in which conservatives dominate. While there is little money behind these ads, they are necessary to lay the groundwork for 2010 challenges.

Part of the NRCC’s objective, of course, is to scare some of these Democrats into adopting conservative voting habits over the next few months. 11 House Democrats voted against the stimulus bill, but there are enough Blue Dogs that the GOP can hope for more Democrats to cross over to their side on key votes. And they are more likely to vote with Republicans  if they are made to think it is dangerous for them not to do so .

Here is the version that is running in KS-03 against Rep. Dennis Moore (audio here):

Last year, Dennis Moore promised us he would promote fiscally responsible legislation in congress. His website bragged about how he worked with either party to, quote, get our country back on track so we don’t pass on massive debt to our children and grand-children. But now, just a year later, he voted for a wasteful, pork-barreled program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars. And he’s borrowing the money!

Dennis Moore’s spending plan is parked with pork. $75 million for smoking cessation, $50 million for the National Endowment of the Arts, $335 million to treat sexually transmitted diseases, and $600 million for government employees vehicles, including 32 entirely new government programs. Yup. You heard me. Call Dennis Moore at 202-225-3121. Tell him he made a mistake by supporting wasteful spending. Tell him to guard the taxpayers instead.

While the second part of that ad is used against all 30 Democrats, the first part is twitched a little on an individual basis. Here is the beginning of the spot that is running against Rep. Eric Massa in NY-29:

Last month, Eric Massa bragged about his fiscal discipline in Congress. ‘I’m a fiscal hawk; I don’t like deficit spending.’ Those were Eric Massa’s own words. He said them in a press conference. But now he’s voted for a wasteful pork barrel program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars, putting us deeper in debt.

Here is a table listing the full list of targeted Democrats. I added the districts’ presidential vote in 2004 and 2008 so we get an idea of how vulnerable these representatives are. (The district-level results for 2008 are available on Swing State Project’s excellent database.)

District Status 2008 pres. 2004 pres.
McNerney (CA-11) sophomore 54% Obama 54% Bush
Salazar (CO-03) red-leaning district 50% McCain 55% Bush
Markey (CO-04) freshman 51% McCain 58% Bush
Grayson (FL-08) freshman 52% Obama 55% Bush
Kosmas (FL-24) freshman, red district 52% McCain 55% Bush
Barrow (GA-12) (very) narrow ‘06 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Braley (IA-01) sophomore 58% Obama 53% Kerry
Moore (KS-03) red-leaning district 51% Obama 55% Bush
Melancon (LA-03) red district 61% McCain 58% Bush
Schauer (MI-07) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 52% Obama 54% Bush
Walz (MN-01) sophomore 51% Obama 51% Bush
Skelton (MO-04) red district 61% McCain 64% Bush
Childers (MS-01) red district 62% McCain 62% Bush
Kissell (NC-08) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 54% Bush
Shea-Porter (NH-01) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 51% Bush
Teague (NM-02) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 50% McCain 58% Bush
Titus (NV-03) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 55% Obama 50% Bush
Hall (NY-19) sophomore 51% Obama 54% Bush
Maffei (NY-25) freshman 56% Obama 50% Kerry
Massa (NY-29) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 51% McCain 56% Bush
Driehaus (OH-01) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 55% Obama 51% Bush
Kilroy (OH-15) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Space (OH-18) sophomore, red district 52% McCain 57% Bush
Schrader (OR-05) freshman 54% Obama 50% Bush
Dahlkemper (PA-03) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 49% Obama 53% Bush
Carney (PA-10) sophomore, red district 54% McCain 60% Bush
Gordon (TN-06) red district 62% McCain 60% Bush
Edwards (TX-17) red district 67% McCain 70% Bush
Nye (VA-02) freshman 51% Obama 58% Bush
Kagen (WI-08) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 55% Bush

It is striking that 28 of these districts were won by George W. Bush in 2004, but only 11 were carried by John McCain in November: CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-29, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06, TX-17.

Given that most of the country swung blue in 2008, districts that stayed in the red column can be considered the GOP’s most solid base - and the NRCC is understandably frustrated at the large number of Democrats representing such districts. These districts are at the very top of their list, and their congressmen are among the most vulnerable incumbents of 2010. Particularly endangered are those on this list that won in 2006 and in 2008 because of their opponent’s unpopularity or ethics problems; that includes Markey (CO-04), Kosmas (FL-24), Space (OH-18), Carney (PA-10).

On the other hand, many of these red districts are still held by Democrats because they have deeply entrenched Democratic incumbents who are popular enough to hold the district no matter how conservative their constituents. Those include CO-03, MO-04 and TN-06, three red districts targeted by this wave of advertisement - and surprisingly so given how little we have heard about them over the past few cycles!

Equally interesting are the two districts won by John Kerry that the DCCC is targeting, a list to which we can almost add OH-15, which Bush barely won in 2004. But while I can understand why the NRCC is targeting Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy, who showed that she was not the strongest of candidates in 2006 and then again in 2006, I am more skeptical as to the inclusion of NY-25 and IA-01. The former is a blue-trending district in which Obama won a decisive victory and in a state where Republicans have been sinking. The latter is even more confusing: Both Kerry and Obama won IA-01 decisively, and Bruce Braley is not even a freshman!