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Congress: The Feeney stunner, and some resolution in Mississippi

Published
by
Taniel
on September 22, 2008
in FL-24 and MS-Sen
. 1 Comment

Whenever an incumbent feels the need to release an ad saying “I’m very sorry” a few weeks from Election Day, you can be sure that his internal polls show him in big trouble.

In the 2006 midterms, Pennsylvania Rep. Sherwood (PA-10) was an entrenched incumbent in a very conservative district. But as he found himself plagued by an adultery scandal and by allegations that he tried to strangle his mistress, Sherwood found himself fighting for his political life and aired a soon-to-be-famous ad apologizing for his conduct. Sherwood lost that election to current Democratic Rep. Carney.

Now, it is Rep. Tom Feeney’s turn to attempt a similar maneuver in FL-24. Ever since lobbyist Jack Abramoff has been under the spotlight, Feeney has faced ethics questions over a 2003 golfing trip he took to Scotland and that was paid by Abramoff. Democrats have been looking to use that story to attack Feeney, who has been on their target list ever since they recruited top-tier challenger Suzanne Kosmas.

Feeney was apparently feeling the heat - and his internal polling was surely showing voters having questions about his ethics (the only poll we have seen of late was an internal Democratic poll showing a 1% race) - as he has taken the dramatic (and rather desperate) move of airing a 30-second ad directly addressing this story and apologizing for the “rookie mistake” and for having “embarrassed” himself and his constituents:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=na-xa_9yU1I"]

For obvious reasons, it is very dangerous for a politician to air an ad like this, and the fact that Feeney (and Sherwood before him) chose to take that step is a testament to how much danger his campaign thought he was in because of his Abramoff ties. For one, it forces an issue at the center of the political discussion. Feeney should now expect a whole round of stories on local news and on local newspapers devoted to this 2003 trip.

Second, Feeney is blowing a significant amount of his cash on hand for this ad. He was already being outraised by Kosmas, and FL-24 is in the costly Orlando market. Feeney has bought 10-days worth of rotation for this spot, which means that he will spend much of his money addressing his ties to Abramoff, leaving with little money to go after his opponent. Given that the NRCC has little money to come to Feeney’s rescue, this could create quite an unbalance in ad spending.

Of course, the ad could pay dividends if voters come to accept Feeney’s version of events and sympathize with his apology; if Feeney connects with his constituents thanks to these 30 seconds, future Democratic attack ads could seem petty to voters and backfire. That said, Feeney does not actually acknowledge that he had any idea that his behavior was wrong when he engaged in it. “I found out later,” he says, “that [the trip] was paid for by a corrupt lobbyist. It was a rookie mistake and I did everything I could to make it right.  I reported it to the ethics committee and I paid the money back.” That leaves quite an opening for the DCCC to go after Feeney.

This is ultimately why these ads are so problematic for those who air them. If a politician spends hundreds of thousands of dollars saying he is “very sorry” even though there are huge risks associated with such a maneuver, it means that he really felt like he had to in order to survive politically. It is the ultimate defensive ad, and it is never good for a politician to be on the defensive.

Meanwhile, in Mississippi’s Senate race, we got some resolution today as the Board of Elections released a new sample ballot that places the Musgrove-Wicker contest near the top, right after the presidential race and Sen. Ted Cochran’s re-election contest. And the sample also confirms that Musgrove and Wicker’s party affiliation will not appear, making for a very curious ballot that is worth taking a look at.

Keep in mind, however, that the exact layout and the order in which candidates will appear will differ from county to county, so there is no way of knowing whether some counties will choose to make party affiliation more explicit by aligning Wicker’s name with those of McCain and Cochran, for instance, or whether it will really be up to the voters’ to remember the candidates’ parties. (If party affiliation is in any way clearer in counties that are predominantly white or those that are predominantly black, it could obviously impact the results.)

Alaska primary is finally resolved, and so are (perhaps) Mississippi’s legal battles

Published
by
Taniel
on September 18, 2008
in AK-AL and MS-Sen
. 0 Comments

This was a day of resolutions in some of the congressional drama we have been following as of late. First came news that the disgracefully slow ballot counting in Alaska’s House primary is finally over. There were still about 350 ballots to be counted - more than the margin between incumbent Rep. Don Young and Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell - but they only increased Young’s winning margin. With all ballots counted, Young was certified the winner with a 304 vote lead, and Sean Parnell (who could have asked for a recount) chose against it and conceded the race.

And just like that, Alaska’s lone House seat becomes one of the most vulnerable seats Republicans are defending this year. The GOP’s main hope of retaining the seat seemed to rest in a primary defeat for Young, but the incumbent who is under investigation now enters the general election as the clear underdog. The latest poll has him trailing Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz by double-digits (Parnell led Berkowitz by double-digits), and while he has been in office for decades, Young lacks the stature of a Ted Stevens. That much of late September-early October will be devoted to coverage of Stevens’ trial will only complicate Young’s re-election bid.

Young’s path to salvation is clear: he has to ride whatever coattails Palin proves to have, and relentlessly insist that he has enough clout to bring money and attention back from Washington, explaining that Alaska cannot give up on his seniority.

Meanwhile, the Mississippi Supreme Court ruled today that the Senate race between Wicker and Musgrove had to be at the top of the ballot (background on the controversy here). The ruling said, “We find that the special election for United States Senator must be listed in the first category of the ballot, along with all other national elections, and the law assumes the Governor and Secretary of State will follow the law.” Even though a lower court had come to the same conclusion, this was a somewhat surprising decision as the state Supreme Court had invalidated a lower court ruling earlier this spring over whether the special election should be held in March or in November.

In fact, it appears that the Supreme Court was torn between its need to follow the law and its unwillingness to challenge Gov. Barbour, as the majority declared that the down-ballot placement was illegal without ordering Barbour to move the race. A dissenting judge wrote in response, “Given the governor’s recent success at convincing seven members of this Court that a year is sometimes not a year, see Barbour v. State ex. reL Hood, 974 So. 2d 232 (Miss. 2008), one cannot fault him for daring to return to our chamber and insisting that the top is sometimes not the top.” Anyone who followed the early 2008 controversy over the election’s timing will understand what this is referring to (some background here).

This could have further prolonged the confusion if Barbour had refused to comply, but his office announced today that the race would be moved to “near the top” of the ballot. If that is confirmed (and we still have to see what Barbour’s definition of “near the top” is), this seems to put an end to the debate and takes care of one question mark we had about this race. Most reports about the GOP’s scheme assumed that the down-ballot placement would hurt Democrat Ronnie Musgrove because it would lower the participation of low-income voters and African-Americans, but I had argued the other day that it could very well backfire on Republicans.

I had said that Mississippi voting patterns at the federal level are almost entirely based on race (rather than on class) and that the GOP might be depriving itself of the white electorate’s reflex to vote Republican on federal races (at the top of the ballot). So since I did not think the down-ballot placement was a huge threat to Musgrove, I do not think the Supreme Court’s move is a huge victory for him either. But it certainly removes a major element of uncertainty that would have made any prediction about this race impossible (and any polling mostly unreliable).

Poll roundup: 4th tracking poll, 15 state surveys show highly competitive electoral college

Published
by
Taniel
on September 11, 2008
in AL-Pres, CO-Pres, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, ID-Sen, ME-Pres, ME-Sen, MI-Pres, MN-02, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres and WY-Pres
. 6 Comments

A few months ago, both candidates were talking about radically transforming the electoral map. Georgia, Mississippi, New Jersey and Connecticut were going to be put in play, rendering any comparisons to the 2004 numbers meaningless. But two months from Election Day, polling results are fairly in line with the red/blue state divide. Of the 11 states polled yesterday, Obama leads in every one won by Kerry and McCain leads in every one won by Bush ‘04.

The situation is not as dramatic today - Obama led by 5% in Ohio this morning’s Quinnipiac poll - but the GOP’s convention bounce looks to have helped McCain a great deal in red states that Democrats were eying, perhaps too optimistically. After Montana and North Dakota over the past two days, it is Georgia that now looks completely out of reach. But one exception is North Carolina: SUSA found McCain gaining two days ago, but since then four polls have found contrasting results. Today alone, one has found Obama gaining and one has found McCain opening a big lead.

In states that are more obvious battlegrounds, there hasn’t been much movement - suggesting most of McCain’s bounce is coming from red states. But polls from the most crucial swing states are starting to look all over the place - and that’s the surest sign that the race is a toss-up that either candidate could win. Democrats should not panic, nor should they dismiss this tightening. McCain has not taken a lead in the electoral college, but he now looks to be definitely in the race, to an extent few would have predicted a few months ago:

  • First, the trackings: In Rasmussen, the race is back to a tie (Obama led by 1% yesterday); in Gallup, McCain loses one point but stays ahead 48% to 44%; in Diego Hotline, McCain seizes a lead, 46% to 44%.
  • And there is now a fourth tracking poll. Conducted by Research 2000, it finds Obama ahead 47% to 45% with 2% each for Nader and Barr. The poll is sponsored by Daily Kos, but that does not mean it is biased: R2000 is an independent pollster. Just scroll down to the results it found in Kos-sponsored polls of ME-Sen and NC-Pres today: they are very favorable to the GOP.
  • McCain leads 48% to 46% in another national poll, conducted by Democracy Corps. That’s a 7% bounce for the Arizona Senator.
  • McCain leads 50% to 42% in an Insider Advantage poll from Florida (polling history). Obama is weak among registered Democrats. One relief for him: He can expect higher support among blacks than this poll finds.
  • McCain leads 48% to 47% in an Insider Advantage poll of Ohio, but Obama only has 48% of the black vote. I am not one to throw a poll out because of a problem with one internal, but given that African-Americans make up about 10% of the electorate and that Obama should get at the very least 80% of that vote, this survey has an obvious problem. McCain leads by 17% among independents.
  • McCain leads 45% to 44% in an Insider Advantage poll of Michigan. McCain leads by 18% among independents.
  • McCain leads 47% to 44% in a Civitas poll from North Carolina (polling history). Without leaners, McCain is only ahead by 1%. McCain was ahead by 6% in the August survey. 19% of the sample is black, about where it was in 2004 - that’s the number that could put Obama over the top if he can boost it to 22-23%.
  • McCain leads 55% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll of North Carolina. He led by 4% in late July.
  • Obama leads 47% to 46% in a PPP poll from Colorado (polling history). He led by 4% in August and his lead survives thanks to a large advantage among Hispanics.
  • Obama leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll from Colorado.
  • McCain leads 56% to 38% in an Insider Advantage poll from Georgia. That’s his largest lead ever from this state.
  • McCain leads 52% to 39% in another poll from Georgia, released by Strategic Vision.
  • McCain leads 55% to 35% in a Capital Survey Research Center poll from Alabama.
  • McCain leads 52% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll from Mississippi. Obama gets 14% of the black vote.
  • Obama leads 52% to 38% in a Research 2000 poll from Maine. There is no breakdown by district.
  • McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll from Wyoming. Bush won by 20% more, and what coattails McCain has could be important in the House race.

To recap the most important findings: Q-pac’s Ohio survey finding Obama gaining is contradicted by two afternoon polls (though one of which finds Obama at a ridiculously low 48% of the black vote, and he would have been in the lead otherwise). Insider Advantage released the first poll from Michigan that shows McCain leading by any margin for months now, but Rasmussen shows Obama gaining and leading outside of the margin of error - just like CNN found yesterday. And Obama leads in two Colorado surveys, though the margins are tight.

As a group, this round of poll looks slightly better for McCain, who is putting Georgia away, surviving in Florida, essentially tying in Colorado and even taking the lead in one Michigan survey. But this also underscores that Obama has many more combinations to reach 269. If he saves Michigan and Pennsylvania (and he looks better in those than McCain does in a number of red states), McCain will be forced to play defense and save a large number of vulnerable red states.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot races:

  • In Mississippi’s Senate race, Research 2000 finds Senator Wicker leading Ronnie Musgrove 48% to 43%. That’s a 4% improvement for Wicker since July. 18% of blacks are undecided, versus only 4% of whites, so there is more of a reserve for Musgrove - but if that is because these respondents are not sure who the Democrat is, they will not be helped by the ballot since it will not list any partisan identification.
  • In the North Carolina Senate race, Research 2000 finds the race tightening since late July but Dole remaining on top, 48% to 42%.
  • In the gubernatorial race, Research 2000 finds Pat McCrory leading Beverly Perdue 47% to 42%. That’s a similar result as SUSA’s poll.
  • In Maine’s Senate race, Tom Allen is making no inroads whatsoever according to Research 2000. He trails 57% to 36% against Senator Collins.
  • In the Idaho Senate race, Jim Risch has a large lead in Rasmussen’s first poll of the race, 58% to 30%. The poll does not include conservative independent candidate Rammell about whom the GOP is reportedly worried.
  • A poll of MN-02 conducted for the Alliance for a Better Minnesota finds GOP Rep. Kline leading challenger Steve Starvi 37% to 33%. But take the poll with a grain of salt, as it also finds Obama leading McCain by 11% in a district McCain carried by 9%. (The poll was taken at the end of August.)

No surprises in Maine’s and Idaho’s Senate race, though it would be more interesting to see whether Rammell is gaining any traction in the latter. The MS race is of course the most interesting, and Democrats definitely still look to be in striking range. But it is undeniable that Wicker is in a better position than he was a few months ago. More analysis about this race in this post I wrote yesterday and in my upcoming Senate rankings.

As for North Carolina, there is a very interesting divide between pollsters at the moment. On the one side, there is Research 2000 and SUSA, on the other PPP and Bev. Perdue’s pollster (both Democratic firms) and Civitas (a Republican firm). They are finding diverging results in all three statewide races.

Confusion in Mississippi

Published
by
Taniel
on September 10, 2008
in MS-Sen
. 2 Comments

For Democrats to win a Senate seat in red Mississippi, absolutely everything has to break their way which is perhaps why this election is generating so much controversy. At the beginning of the year, Gov. Barbour succeeded in moving the special senatorial election from the March date state law appeared to mandate to November 4th; that was meant to give Wicker more time to develop an incumbency advantage and spare the GOP the risks of a low-turnout spring election.

Yesterday, the GOP-controlled state Election Commission took another controversial move by placing the Musgrove-Wicker Senate race at the very bottom of the ballot - after obscure races like local school boards. Just like the debate over the election’s date, this has now become a legal battle because of a state law that says federal elections have to be placed at the top of the ballot. A judge issued a restraining order, blocking the state from printing ballots until the issue is resolved.

Democrats and Republicans are very much convinced this down-ballot placement would be very harmful to Musgrove. The reasoning is that down-ballot placement might lead low-information voters as well as many first-time voters who Democrats hope will be black (due to the Obama factor) to overlook the Musgrove-Wicker race. Another reason this could truly hurt Musgrove is that voters tend to favor incumbents in down-the-ballot races, as they typically have paid less attention to those.

(All of this is complicated by the fact that that Musgrove’s and Wicker’s party affiliation will not appear on the ballot because this is a special election. That is in many ways good for Democrats, as Musgrove will not be automatically dragged down by his party affiliation, but it could also prevent him from benefiting from whatever boost of black turnout Obama generates - particularly if the race is buried at the bottom of the ballot.)

But there also convincing reasons why this could backfire and actually hurt Wicker as well. One of the main reasons the GOP wanted the race to be moved to November was so they could benefit from higher-turnout associated with the presidential race and so they could ride the coattails of white voters massively coming out to vote for the GOP and make sure that the electorate’s racial breakdown reflects historical trends. But if the Musgrove-Wicker race is buried under the ballot, wouldn’t many white voters who are only coming out to vote because of the presidential race also be moved to overlook it? In Mississippi, voting breaks down along racial lines rather than class lines, as a Democrat would be lucky to even get 20% of the white vote; so are low-information voters really more likely to be the Democrats’ constituency?

Another factor that might make this a misguided move for the GOP: Mississippi’s white voters still vote Democratic in local races, it is only in federal elections that they massively break towards Republicans. Democrats control both the state Senate and the state House, the latter by a large 73-46 margin! By pulling the Mississippi Senate race out of the federal category and into down-the-ballot placement, does the GOP not risk depriving itself of this dynamic (common to many Southern states)?

This might all be moot if courts overrule, but questions about how voters might perceive Musgrove and Wicker will be crucial to the November results, especially since voters will not be reminded of party affiliations. Wherever the race is located on the ballot, a white voter who is coming out to vote for McCain will have to remember that Wicker is a GOPer, just as a black voter will have to remember that Musgrove is a Democrat. And keep in mind that there is more to gain for Democrats to blur partisan lines than Republicans, as blacks are extremely unlikely to go for the GOP while some white voters might be moved to vote Democratic.

This is the logic that is driving the Democrats’ campaign. Musgrove is running as conservative a campaign as possible, though he has said he will vote for Obama. And the DSCC’s new ad in the state attacks Wicker for not being like… John McCain!

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLvXu8o8IDs"]

This is somewhat of a reversed echo of Gordon Smith’s ads embracing Barack Obama, though Mississippi’s dynamics are much more confused - the incumbent has been in office for a few months, voters know Musgrove well, party affiliations will not be on the ballot, the placement is disputed, we don’t know whether Obama will succeed in boosting black turnout…

Down-ballot: Alaska primary still unresolved, Dole portrays Hagan as a dog

Published
by
Taniel
on September 7, 2008
in AK-AL, MO-Gov, MS-Sen and NC-Sen
. 5 Comments

Ten days after Alaska’s primaries, the House race between Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell and Rep. Don Young is still unresolved. Last we heard, Young was ahead by 152 votes, with thousands left to be counted. The deadline for non-international absentee ballots to arrive was Friday, so election officials counted 25,000 absentee and questioned ballots yesterday. But the margin barely moved: Young is now ahead by 239 votes.

The only ballots left, as the (very useful over the past week Anchorage Daily News informs us, are an “unknown number of absentee votes cast and mailed by voters from overseas.” Since those ballots can come until Wednesday, final results will not be announced for a few more days - and we don’t even know how many such ballots there are and whether Parnell has a chance at overtaking Young.

And it is unlikely the confusion will even end on Wednesday, as the loser can ask for a state-funded recount if he trails by less than 0.5%. That could drag any finalization of the Republican nominee until September 18th - about six weeks from Election Day - though it appears that the general election will not be that suspenseful whoever wins the GOP nomination. As the latest poll confirmed, Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz would be the clear favorite if Young survives and the clear underdog if he doesn’t.

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, a poll released earlier this week by Elizabeth Dole is generating some noise. The spot portrays Democratic challenger Kay Hagan as a yapping dog while the announcer declares that “they call her fibber Kay Hagan.” Also, the ad touts Dole’s “clout,” a response to DSCC spots accusing her of being ineffective:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX4hY8bzijw"]

The News & Observer remarks that it has been unable to locate any prior instance of Hagan being referred to as “fibber Kay,” and adds that the Dole campaign was unable to point to a specific place or time they heard such a nickname. But the ad’s most inappropriate part, of course, is its visual portrayal of a candidate as a dog. Challenged to explain why such a representation was chosen by a New Republic blogger, a Dole staffer had a vague reply:

Gidley, Dole’s spokesperson, took a long pause when asked what the dog symbolizes, noting slowly that there isn’t “a particular image we are trying to portray.” Eventually, he explained that it alludes to Hagan’s stump persona. “She is out on the campaign trail barking fibs at the audience… It’s reminiscent of a dog barking, I guess,” Gidley said. “Everyone’s had to live next to a dog that just barks constantly, and you’ve heard the phrase ‘all bark and no bite,’ and Kay Hagan has been barking for a while.”

While the ad makes no mention of any specific lies Hagan has told, it seeks to discredit any future attack she might launch by portraying her as so desperate that she would say anything to get to Dole - just like a yapping dog. The ad is meant to prevent voters from changing their opinion of Dole by appealing to their solidarity and rallying them in defense in her defense.

There have been other interesting Senate ads lately, for instance the DSCC’s attack ad against Gordon Smith, Bruce Lunsford’s spot attacking Mitch McConnell for breaking his promises and calling on voters to not longer be “McConned” and the DSCC’s attack ad against Roger Wicker. None are particularly ground breaking, but it is worth taking notice of the fact that the DSCC is investing in many more races than the NRSC is at this moment. (The GOP’s committee is only airing ads in North Carolina and in New Hampshire.) It is also noteworthy that the DSCC is on the air in Mississippi, a deeply red state where the latest polls have shown Wicker climbing into a lead.

Finally, take a look at this ad from Missouri’s gubernatorial race, for Jay Nixon’s spot bears a striking resemblance to Barack Obama’s message at the presidential level:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vil1Sv0rKeQ"]

Nixon exploits GOP candidate Kenny Hulshof’s statement that the economy is strong, just as Obama has been doing against McCain. Nixon goes on to describe himself as “the change we need,” once again an echo of themes we are hearing in the presidential race. This opens the interesting question - about which I will hopefully write more soon - of what effect (if any) down-the-ballot ads might have on Obama-McCain contest.

My sense is that Obama is boosted by ads like Nixon’s and by the fact that congressional and gubernatorial Democrats are running ads tying their Republican opponents to Bush or that Jeanne Shaheen and Al Franken are using footage of Sens. Sununu and Coleman embracing the president. There will be many Democrats pounding the same message over the next 2 months - that Republicans are the heirs of Bush and that they would not represent change, and this could guarantee that Bush remains on people’s minds over the next two months. And if voters are thinking about Bush or the GOP when voting in the Senate race - and that is the centerpiece of the Democratic strategy in countless states - they will also take similar concerns into account when voting in the presidential contest.

Poll roundup: Obama has a shot in Indiana, GOP holding strong in MS-Sen and AL-03

Published
by
Taniel
on August 23, 2008
in AL-03, CA-Pres, IN-Pres, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, NV-02 and TN-Pres
. 11 Comments

It seems somewhat sacrilegious to return to polls after the excitement of the past 24 hours, but here is a roundup of the last two days of polling news. Before going on to state polls, let’s take a look to the state of the tracking polls, as today’s delivery of Rasmussen and Gallup will be the last taken entirely before Biden’s pick and the two week extravaganza that will be the conventions. Obama’s 2% lead in both Rasmussen and Gallup will be used as a marker for whatever bounce they receive - especially because both trackings have been hovering around those numbers for weeks now, with incredible stability.

Meanwhile, in state numbers:

  • In Indiana, the first Rasmussen poll finds McCain leading but by a narrow margin, 46% to 42% (49% to 43% with leaners). That’s the same margin as the recent SUSA poll. McCain’s favorability rating is much stronger - 65% to 52%.
  • In California, Obama is ahead in the Rasmussen poll, 51% to 37%, 54% to 41% with leaners.
  • In Tennessee, McCain leads 56% to 32% in a Rasmussen poll, a 9% improvement since June. Obama’s favorability rating is disastrous: 39%, with 60% unfavorable!
  • In Mississippi, the numbers are stable since July, with McCain leading 54% to 41% (56% to 43% with leaners). Take a look at this racial polarization: Obama only gets 13% of the white vote,  97% of the black vote! The racial gap is a stunning 166%…

The two interesting states of the list, of course, are Indiana and Mississippi. The former is one of the red states that the Obama campaign has been advertising in, and over the past 3 months we had only gotten two SUSA polls from it. One (in June) showed Obama leading by 1%; the other, released this week, had McCain leading by 6%. That SUSA now confirms that this race is in the mid single-digits means that we have enough confirmation to start taking the possibility of Indiana having become a truly competitive state more seriously. As of the beginning of this year, that would have seem like an insane proposition (Bush did win the state by more than 20%) and the extended primary season clearly made Democrats more enthused in this state.

Mississippi, on the other hand, seems to be anchoring itself in the safe McCain column. Remember that some Democrats did talk about this state at the beginning of the summer, lumping it with Southern states like North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. They argued that Obama would boost black turnout enough to put them in the competitive column. That argument never fully made sense in Mississippi (the state is rated safe McCain in my ratings), where Democrats start with a huge deficit and where the vote is so racially polarized that Obama would need to make significant inroads among white voters to overcome Bush’s 20% margin.

Kerry got 14% of the white vote there (!), as much as Bush did nationally among the black vote, and are we really to believe that a black candidate could do much better than that? There no evidence that Obama will succeed in appealing to Southern whites, but consider that his favorability rating among Mississippi whites in this poll is a shocking 18%!

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In the Mississippi Senate race (polling history), Rocker Wicker maintains his large lead over Musgrove in Rasmussen’s poll. He leads 47% to 42%, 52% to 43%. Both have a favorable rating above 50% - though Wicker’s is a bit higher. The racial gap is smaller than in the presidential race: Musgrove only gets 83% of the black vote, manages to get 22% of whites.
  • In AL-03, a Capital Survey Research Center poll shows Rep. Rogers handily beating his Democratic challenger Joshua Segall, 54% to 33%.

Rasmussen’s numbers from MS-Sen are undoubtedly worrisome news for Democrats and a boost to GOP morale. Republicans were hoping that Wicker would get a boost as the electorate becomes more polarized (especially due to the conjunction with the presidential race). Musgrove will not have a “D” next to his name, which could help him escape Obama’s drag and perform better among white voters (though it could also reduce his total among black voters). This is the same margin as last month’s Rasmussen numbers, but previous Rasmussen polls (and all other surveys from this state) had found a toss-up. It will be interesting to see what other surveys have to say, but we had always known that Musgrove would be better off if this special election had been held in March as it should have been.

The two House races are interesting as well, as they both come from the list of third-tier races that my latest House ratings pointed out will be particularly fun to follow over the next few weeks: AL-03 is actually not that dominant a Republican district, much less, in any case than AL-02. Democrats have been touting Joshua Segall, but this poll clearly suggests he will have a lot of work to do over the next few months. NV-02 looks like it will be a better option for Democrats to contest: This is also a district Bush won convincingly; but Heller won the election with a much narrower margin than he ought to have in 2006, and that was already against Jill Derby. Since then, Democrats have had registration gains in the state and in this district, and while the seat still clearly leans retention, Derby has a clear shot.

Q-Pac polls from the “Big Three:” Obama ahead, losing ground

Published
by
Taniel
on July 31, 2008
in FL-Pres, MI-Pres, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, NC-Gov, NE-Pres, NE-Sen, NV-03, Nat-Poll, OH-Pres and PA-Pres
. 6 Comments

Last night, I moved Florida out of the McCain column for the first time in my latest presidential ratings - with a slight apprehension at doing so just hours before I could see the results of the latest Quinnipiac polls. Well, there were no surprises in Quinnipiac’s latest release from the “Big Three” battleground states:

  • In Ohio, Obama gets 46% to McCain’s 44%. In June, Obama led 48% to 42%. Obama improves his share of Democratic voters yet again (69% in May to 80% in June to 84% today) but McCain leads by 8% more among Republicans.
  • In Florida, the margin is also 46% to 44% in Obama’s favor, down from a 47% to 43% lead last month. Obama gets 86% of the Democratic vote but now trails among independents. He leads 56% to 36% among Hispanics (a very good margin for Florida) and 65% to 29% among Jewish voters. A problematic constituency here are white voters with no college degree, that opt for McCain by 15%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead more comfortably, 49% to 42%. Last month, he led 52% to 40%. McCain only gets 1% of the black vote! Obama’s support among Democrats is stable from last month.
  • In all three states, slightly more voters say that Obama’s energy plan is better than McCain’s. That’s within the margin of error, but this is an issue the GOP has been focusing with particular intensity lately.

Overall, then, these polls confirm the conventional wisdom - which also happens to be the wisdom of my most recent ratings - that Florida and Ohio are toss-ups and Pennsylvania leans Democratic. That Obama is ahead in all three states is obviously good news for the Democrat, especially given that he has many other routes to get to 270 electoral votes than winning Ohio and Florida. Either one of these two states could be enough to put Obama over the top considering that other states are even more likely to fall into his column (say, Iowa) and McCain would then have to win Michigan to survive.

Yet, the trendlines in each polls favors McCain (with modest gains from 2% to 5%) - just as last week when McCain gained ground in each of Quinnipiac’s July 24th releases from MN, WI, CO and MI. In other words, Obama might be narrowly ahead by most indicators, but the race is still in flux and we can expect a lot more movement in the coming months.

Other presidential polls were released yesterday afternoon:

  • CNN’s national poll found Obama increasing his lead, 51% to 44%. The previous poll had Obama leading by 5%. In a series of bizarre questions, CNN tested the efficiency of some of McCain’s attacks on Obama and found that the electorate is not sharing them: Only 37% say Obama is arrogant, 72% say he cares about veterans and troops in Iraq. Asked whether Obma is acting as if he has already won the election, 44% say yes. McCain has an edge on who would best handle terrorism (+15%), Afghanistan and Iraq (+7%), but Obama has an edge on the economy and gas prices (+11%) and even on the topic the GOP likes to attack Democrats on the most: taxes!
  • In Michigan, PPP has Obama losing his advantage from the previous poll, with his lead down from 8% to 3% (46-43). This confirms the tightening we have been observing in other polls (Quinnipiac, for instance) and Michigan moved back to the toss-up column last night.
  • In Mississippi, Rasmussen finds McCain opening his first double-digit lead, 52% to 41%. He led by 6% in both the June and May poll. McCain’s favorability rating is at 64%. Obama’s at 47%.
  • In Nebraska, Rasmussen shows McCain leading 50% to 32%. Obama’s favorability rating is low: 45% against 51%.

In 2004, Nebraska’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts performed 11% more Democratic than the state at large. Rasmussen does not provide any breakdown that I can see in this poll, but that would put Obama in single-digit territory in his hopes of wrestling away at least one of these electoral votes. Some of the advertisment he is airing in Iowa is spilling over in the Omaha market, so voters in the 1st district are seeing ads. Overall, however, there is no question that McCain has little to worry about in either of these states. There has been some noise about Mississippi turning blue, but given the extent of the racial polarization of the state (getting 20% of the white vote would be an impressive achievement for Obama), it will take a substantial boost in black turnout for him to even get close.

Finally, some down-the-ballot polls to close this polling roundup:

  • In Mississippi’s Senate race, Sen. Wicker opens his first significant lead in the Rasmussen poll: 48% to 42%, 52% to 41% with leaners. Musgrove’s favorability, at 51%, is inferior to Wicker’s at 61%. In the past two months, the margin was 1%.
  • In another poll of the MS Senate race that was released late last week by Research 2000 but that I completly forgot to report, Wicker gets 45% to Musgrove’s 44%. 17% of black voters were undecided compared to 7% of white voters, so Musgrove had much more room to grow.
  • In the Nebraska Senate race, no surprises in Rasmussen’s latest poll: Johanns is up 56% to 31%.
  • In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Beverly Perdue opens her first significant lead since the primary and leads 46% to 37% in PPP’s latest poll - up from 1% last month.
  • Finally, in NV-03, an internal poll for former gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus finds her ahead of GOP Rep. Porter 43% to 39%.

It’s important not to jump to conclusions in Mississippi’s Senate race based on only one survey - especially when the parallel movement upwards of McCain and Wicker suggests it might be due a change in the sample’s breakdown. At the same time, there is no doubt that the race was always going to be a long shot for Democrats. Once Wicker would have a chance to introduce himself, run ads and benefit from the increasing partisan polarization of a presidential campaign season, he was bound to improve his numbers somewhat, which is exactly why Democrats were so hopeful this special election might be held in March. Wicker’s bounce might be due to his running extensive ads in the state; the DSCC has now jumped in to help Musgrove.

NV-03 is also an important House race, albeit one that has been developing only recently as Titus came to replace a Democrat who dropped out this spring. She is undoubtedly a strong candidate, and even though an internal poll has to be taken with a grain of salt, any incumbent at 39% has to be considered in huge trouble.

Down-the-ballot: Alaska’s House race gets crowded, NC-11 gets empty

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Taniel
on July 15, 2008
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The Minnesota Senate race continues to be one of the most entertaining of the cycle. Just last night, Jesse Ventura announced he would not run for Senate. Now, Franken has to worry about something else: a primary challenge from Priscilla Lord Faris, an attorney the AP describes as coming from “a well-known family in Minnesota legal circles.” A lot of Democrats are expressing discontent at Franken’s candidacy and some are openly suggesting that Franken cannot win. That’s the rationale Faris embraced in her candidacy announcement: “I feel like we need a change in Minnesota in our senator, and I’m not sure that our endorsed candidate is going to be able to do it.”

Keep in mind that Franken won the DFL’s endorsement in early June; that endorsement is usually enough to guarantee a candidate an easy primary and it is unlikely that Faris will be able to mount a strong challenge. But there are still rumors that Mike Ciresi could jump back in, and depending on how much doubts people have about Franken he might at least have to spend resources and time to ensure all goes smoothly in the Democratic primary. All in all, it’s hard to really follow what’s going on in the MN Senate race at this point.

Back in early June, I asked: Who will beat Don Young first in AK-AL? The question still stands. Plagued by corruption scandals, mocked by fellow Republicans (starting with McCain) for his attachment to earnmarks and trailing in polls against his Democratic challenger, Young looks certain to not be back in the next Congress. The question is whether he will lose in the Republican primary or make it to the general election. The answer could determine whether Democrats pick up this conservative district: If Young loses in the primary, the GOP nominee would be in a good position to beat Ethan Berkowitz in November and it is in the Democrats’ interest that Young win the primary.

That had started to look increasingly improbable. Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell is mounting a strong challenge to Young, and he is helped by the Club for Growth who has vowed to defeat the Alaska congressman. But now has emerged another challenger, state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux. She has been running for a while, but she just announced that she was launching a $100,000 advertisment campaign (based on her self-funding abilities). That is a significant investment that puts LeDoux on the radar screen and will allow her to be a force in the high-profile Young-Parnell match-up.

This is good news for Don Young as multiple primary challengers to an incumbent tend to contest over the same voters and divide the anti-incumbent vote, allowing the sitting congressman to squeak by. There are only so many voters who would reject an incumbent and a three-way race lowers the percentage of the vote Young needs to win. Note, however, that even this might not be enough: In their gubernatorial primary in 2006, Alaska Republicans left the incumbent governor third.

Another House campaign that is making news is NC-11. This is a conservative district picked-up in 2006 by Heath Shuler. Republicans vowed to take back this seat and make it one of their top priorities, but never managed to recruit a top-tier contender. Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower became the Republican nominee, leaving the GOP some hope it could pull an upset if the winds blew its way. But now, Mumpower has suspended his campaign to protest the Republican Party’s abandoning its conservative principles!

He will not campaign again, he says, “until at least half of the Republican leaders in the 15 counties in the 11th Congressional District commit to core party principles.” Since Mumpower is not withdrawing and the primary has passed, NC Republicans are stuck with him and cannot even replace him, as they normally could if a candidate dropped out. However unlikely this would have seemed in December 2006, NC-11 has become one of the safest seats in the country!

Finally, some news from the Mississippi Senate race. Despite the results in MS-01 last month and the polls numbers showing a toss-up, this race is regularly ignored by pundits and by Sens. Ensign and Schumer. The latter, whose job it is to be upbeat about Democratic chances, rated MS as a third-tier race last month. Well, it looks like Democrats have finally decided to pay attention to the Musgrove-Wicker race: the DSCC is now set to start running ads on Musgrove’s behalf. Wicker has already gone up but Musgrove has not, and national Democrats will help keep him afloat.

Down-ballot: DCCC moves to expand map and to block Jack Davis, the AMA turns against Senate Republicans

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Taniel
on July 2, 2008
in IL-06, MS-Sen, NC-08, NC-10, NH-Sen, NY-26, OH-01, OH-02, PA-06, TX-Sen, Uncategorized and VA-02
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With more than $40 million in the bank, the DCCC is not ruining itself by airing radio ads in 13 Republican-held districts to tie the GOP incumbents to big oil. But the list of districts Democrats have chosen to target is instructive of the depth of their offensive:

  • Expected seats: IL-06 (Rep. Roskam), NC-08 (Rep. Hayes), OH-01 (Rep. Chabot), OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt), VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
  • Third-tier at best: NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett), PA-03 (Rep. English), PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach), PA-15 (Rep. Dent), WV-02 (Rep. Capito)
  • Even less expected: CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray), NC-10 (Rep. McHenry), VA-05 (Rep. Goode)

This is not the list of 13 races you would expect Democrats to target. The inclusion of CA-50, for instance, is surprising as no one has been talking much about that race over the past few years. The purpose of this buy, then, is obvious: the DCCC wants to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents, look at their reaction and prepare to poll their weakness in the coming weeks. The fact that it is a cheaper radio buy confirms that it does not commit Democrats to spend a lot of funds, but it reflects their determination to expand the map and put as many GOP incumbents as possible in danger. Note that however cheap this buy is, the NRCC does not have the luxury to spend money on non-essential expenses like these.

The ad uses a President Bush impersenator that pretends to be calling the office of these congressmen to thank them for their support for Big Oil. The full script is available here. Here is just the part read by the Bush impersenator, excerpted from the ad running against Patrick McHenry:

“Pattie…“W” here.

“Wanted to thank you for continuing to support the Big Oil Energy Agenda.

“‘Preciate you voting to keep giving billions in tax breaks to the big oil companies.

“Sure, gasoline is over four bucks a gallon and the oil companies are making record profits, but what’s good for Big Oil is good for America, right?

“I guess that’s why they call us the Grand OIL Party. Heh, heh, heh.

“Seriously, Patrick, I know I can always count on you.

“Gotta go. Bye now.

The fact that the ad is so directly targeted at incumbents with voting records explains why the most obvious seats that Democrats are contesting are not on this list. After all, the most vulnerable GOP-held districts are open seats. Another race in which Democrats are trying to tie the incumbent to the unpopular president is Mississippi’s Senate race — hardly a state in which you would expect Democrats to feel confident making the election national! Bush will fundraise for endangered Sen. Wicker, and Democrats are using the opportunity to tie Wicker and McCain to the GOP brand. The party’s statement read:

A high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.

Remember that in March Republicans attempted to nationalize the special election in MS-01 by tying Travis Childers to Barack Obama. Two months later, Democrats are comfortable giving the GOP a taste of their own medecine in one of the reddest states in the country.

Meanwhile, in NY-26, the DCCC is taking sides in the contested primary between Jon Powers and Jack Davis, the party’s 2006 candidate. As you might remember, Davis grabbed headlines last week when he won his Supreme Court case to ban the millionaire’s amendment in an effort to spend millions of his own money without being “discriminated against” and without any impediment to his attempts to suffocate Powers under massive amounts of his personal wealth. I am not one to advocate for the national parties to get too involved in primaries, but the DCCC thankfully decided to jump in on Powers’s behalf by adding him to their Red to Blue program before the primary. Powers will thus benefit from some of the DCCC’s funds and will be able to match Davis — almost as important as his beating the Republican.

Finally, more bad news for the GOP comes from news that the American Medical Association, a longtime Republican ally, is now turning against Republican Senators for voting against a bill to halt cuts in Medicare reimbursements. The bill failed by only one vote (after the House approved it 355-59), and a number of GOP Senators who voted against it are now being targeted by Democrats and by the AMA. Among those who are up for re-election, we find Sens. Cornyn (TX), Sununu (NH), Wicker (MS), Cochran, Enzi and Barrasso. The first three are vulnerable this fall, and the fact that the AMA has gone up with what it is calling a “significant” buy should worry these incumbent Senators. CQ notes that Mississippi’s Ronnie Musgrove has been heavily campaigning on this issue, and New Hampshire is also a small enough state that third-party ad buys can impact the election.

Senate polls: Democrats strong in CO, TX and MS but weakening in MN

Published
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Taniel
on June 26, 2008
in CO-Sen, MN-Sen, MS-Sen, NJ-Sen, OR-Sen, TX-Sen and UT-Gov
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An unusually high number of Senate polls were released today, prompting me to separate my poll roundup in two. Presidential polls will have to wait a bit longer, as the surveys of seven different senatorial races (six of which can be described as competitive) give us a good overview of the current playing field:

  • Quinnipiac polled Colorado’s senate race, where Mark Udall is ahead of Bob Schaffer 48% to 38%, including a 54% to 37% lead among independents.
  • In another Quinnipiac poll, Minnesota’s Norm Coleman leads Al Franken convincingly, 51% to 41%. He crushes him 55% to 35% among independents. There were no match-ups that included Jesse Ventura.
  • In Oregon, a poll conducted for the conservative Chamber of Commerce found Sen. Gordon Smith with a narrow lead over Jeff Merkley, 38% to 34%.
  • In New Jersey, Farleigh Dickinson confirms that Frank Lautenberg has a clear edge against former Rep. Zimmer, as he leads 45% to 28%.
  • A Lyceum poll of the Texas Senate race finds an unexpectedly tight race, with Sen. Cornyn and Rick Noriega within the margin of error, 38% to 36%.
  • In Mississippi, Rasmussen polled the two Senate races, confirming that Sen. Cochran faces no trouble against Erick Fleming, whom he leads 59% to 32%.
  • But in the other race from the state, Ronnie Musgrove comes in with 47% to the 46% of the newly-appointed Sen. Wicker. Musgrove’s favorability rating is lower, however, 47% compared to 56% for Wicker (the two candidates are as well-known).
  • (Update: Rasmussen’s website is being screwy and giving two sets of numbers, with another version showing 48% for Wicker and 47% for Musgrove. In either case, the difference is within the MoE and the race is a toss-up.)
  • Finally, a quick note from a non-senatorial race as Utah Gov. Huntsman should have no problem this fall according to a new Rasmussen poll. He leads jon Hunstman 66% to 19%…

It is difficult to know what to make of the Oregon and Texas polls given the very high number of undecided voters. Undecideds typically tend to break towards the challenger, and for Smith and Cornyn to come in under 40% is clearly an ominous sign. But take both polls with a grain of salt — perhaps particularly the Texas one, since it also shows McCain leading Obama by 5%, which seems to good for Democrats to be true. Note, however, that two polls taken in May (Rasmussen and Research 2000) found Cornyn leading by only 4%, leading to speculation that Texas could indeed be a battleground, so this survey does not come as a shock.

Quinnipiac’s surveys are the most interesting of this bunch, certainly, and they are also the most reliable. Both confirm the conventional wisdom: In Colorado, this is the third poll in a row to find Udall opening a comfortable lead against Schaffer, in what many Democrats expected would happen months ago. But the open seat race remained tight for long. Schaffer seems to have been hurt by the mounting bad press, particularly regarding his ties to Jack Abramoff and it is also likely that the dismal environment for the GOP has caught up with him. This race is unlikely to join Virginia and New Mexico as almost sure pick-ups, but we should expect Udall to have leads hovering around the high-single digits/low-double digits mark at least until the campaign heats up.

As for Minnesota, Quinnipiac follows the SUSA survey that had found Coleman ahead by 12%. Just as Schaffer, Franken has been suffering through months of bad press — a lot of which has concentrated on his past as comedian, but also on his tax disclosures. Speculation that he might have trouble winning the DFL’s endorsement never came to pass, but Franken is clearly taking a toll from the controversies. Once one of the Democrats’ best opportunities, MN seems to have migrated in the “lean retention” category.

Thankfully for Schumer’s dreams of reaching 60 seats, the Mississippi race is holding on as a toss-up and polls have repeatedly shown that the GOP would be deeply mistaken in regarding this seat as a sure retention (as they sometimes do). The fact that the two candidates’ party ID will not be on the ballot is a further boost to Musgrove in this deeply red state, though it is unclear whether Rasmussen mentioned the candidates’ party affiliation.

Let’s tally it up: Adding Colorado to the list of probable pick-ups (VA, NM, and NH) already gets us to four. While Minnesota is becoming more difficult for Dems, Oregon and Mississippi are still strong options — and so is Alaska, not polled here. And the poll from Texas confirms that the DSCC has a large pool of states that are perhaps not first-tier right now but that could become truly competive (add to this list NC, KY and perhaps KS with Maine somewhere between this group and Alaska). And with New Jersey clearly leaning Lautenberg, that leaves only Louisiana as a race they have to play defense in. That leaves an unlikely but plausible road to 60.

Senate: NRSC’s move towards giving up VA and NM, plus a variety of polls

Published
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Taniel
on June 14, 2008
in IA-Sen, KS-Sen, MI-Sen, MN-Sen, MS-Sen, NM-Sen, OR-Sen and VA-Sen
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Senator Ensign, the chairman of the NRSC, has been setting a lot of expectations lately. After declaring that his goal for the year was to prevent the Democrats from gaining a filibuster-proof majority (and thus limit the loss to eight seats), Ensign has now shifted to a wiser refrain: It will be good news, he explained, if the GOP only loses three seats in November. But at this same lunch with reporters, Ensign made some news by taking the first step towards giving up on Virginia and New Mexico. “You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win,” he said.

An NRSC decision that a race should no longer merits investments would go a long way towards sealing a seat’s fate, for both Steve Pearce and Jim Gilmore will need the help of the national party to keep up with the momentum that is carrying their Democratic opponents. In 2006, the NRSC’s decision to pull out of Ohio effectively handed the election to Sharrod Brown who coasted to an unexpectedly easy victory over the incumbent Republican.

Another interesting tidbit in Ensign’s comments is his list of the 10 most competitive races. Ensign includes North Carolina and Maine and does not even make a stab at spin by putting in New Jersey (though Collins is polling better than Lautenberg at this point). Yet, there is no sign of Mississippi! Despite the fact that (1) Ronnie Musgrove has been leading Senator Wicker in a number of polls, (2) despite predictions of increased black turnout, (3) despite the fact that party affiliations will not be printed on the ballot and (4) despite Travis Childers’s victory in MS-01 last month, Mississippi continues to be treated as a long shot by most analysts. This attitude is indeed not exclusive to Ensign. Even Chuck Schumer rated MS a third-tier race in a recent interview. What more does Musgrove need to do to prove that this Southern special election is among the hottest races of the country?

Meanwhile, 5 new Senate polls were released in the past two days, only two of which concern competitive races. Here are these polls, in the order in which the contests are ordered in my latest Senate rankings:

  • In Minnesota, Norm Coleman edges out Al Franken 48% to 45%, a similar margin than his 2% lead last month.
  • Rasmussen also polled a three way match-up including former Governor Jesse Ventura. Coleman leads 39% to 32% to Franken and 24% to Ventura, who (as is expected) takes votes from the challenger.
  • In Oregon, Jeff Merkley got no bounce from his primary victory as he now trails incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith 47% to 38% in the latest Rasmussen poll. Last month, Smith was ahead by 3% — though Democrats ought to be satisfied that they are keeping Smith under 50%.
  • In Kansas, Cooper & Secrest Associates released a poll of the Senate race that is the third consecutive survey showing Pat Roberts leading his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Slattery, by 12% and the first one in which he dips under the 50% mark, leading 48% to 36%.
  • In Iowa, Senator Harkin is leading challenger Christopher Reed 53% to 37% and posting a favorability rating of 59% in a new Rasmussen survey.
  • In Michigan, finally, no surprises in the latest Rasmussen poll that has Senator Carl Levin leading challenger Jack Hoogendyk 55% to 30%. Hoogendyk is largely unknown but Levin has a strong favorability rating, making him an unlikely target.

Of these 5 races, Minnesota and Oregon are the two interesting ones. Despite the repeated polls showing some potential for Slattery and despite the GOP’s (thwarted) determination early this cycle to field a credible challenger to Harkin, these two races have a long way to go before joining the list of competitive races, though the DSCC might hope that Kansas Democrats will be more enthused than usual if Governor Sebelius is tapped on Obama’s ticket.

In Minnesota, despite the media firestorm that has recently been surrounding Al Franken years as a comedian and the unexpected difficulties that popped up on his way to the DFL’s endorsement, the Democratic challenger is holding strong, suggesting that the race remains a referendum on the incumbent and on the Republican Party. With Minnesota showing signs of moving back to its solidly Democratic roots, Coleman will remain endangered and he should worry if he could not open up a bigger margin after such a favorable month of press coverage. As for the Jesse Ventura question, the former Governor has declared that he will make up his mind at the last minute. The filing deadline is mid-July so we will have to wait a few more weeks to see whether Ventura will wreak havoc in this senatorial race.

Senate: Mississippi battleground and Franken troubles

Published
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Taniel
on May 30, 2008
in AL-Sen, MN-Sen, MS-Sen and TX-Sen
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If Democrats end up losing the Senate race in Mississippi, they can blame the Mississippi Supreme Court’s unfair decision to allow Governor Barbour to not call a March special election to replace Trent Lott. Indeed, while the state remains staunchly Republican, last month’s special election in MS-01 confirmed that the GOP will need the increased turnout of a presidential election to resolve the enthusiasm gap. Furthermore, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove is almost polling like an incumbent right now. He is better-known than newly-appointed Senator Wicker, a rare situation for a challenger to be in.

Rasmussen’s new Senate polls from the two Mississippi races confirms that the Musgrove-Wicker showdown will be one of the top contests this cycle, and one that could actually get Democrats close to a 60 seat majority:

  • Musgrove edges out Wicker 47% to 46%. Both men have a 49% favorability rating, while 18% are not sure of their impression of Wicker (versus only 9% for Musgrove).
  • In the state’s other Senate race, Senator Cochran is crushing challenger Erik Fleming 58% to 35%, as expected.
  • Note that in Rasmussen’s poll of the Alabama Senate race, there are also no surprises as GOP Senator Sessions crushes Vivian Figures 62% to 29%.

Cochran seat was long watched as there were mounting rumors that the longtime Senator might retire, but it is Trent Lott that unexpectedly jumped out, making the special election for his seat the more interesting ones and essentially giving Cochran a free pass.

Meanwhile, Al Franken continues to be in trouble in the Minnesota Senate race continues. After the controversy over Franken’s tax return that the GOP is already looking to exploit mercilessly in the months ahead, it is now Franken’s past writings that are coming back to haunt him as an essay Franken wrote in Playboy in 2000 has now been unearthed. Democratic congressmen are now openly worrying that Franken could drag them down because of past writings from his satirical/comical days. Rep. Betty McCollum is now criticizing the essay as “indefensible” and “pornographic,” worried that it will hurt the state’s entire Democratic slate. Explaining that her phone is ringing “off the hook,” McCollum revealed that she was not sure whether she would support Franken in the general election!

The Politico quotes a Democratic operative as saying that, “We’re looking at having these pornographic writings tagged onto Democrats. That doesn’t seem to be a good strategy to expand our majorities in the House.” Ouch. This is certainly not enough to sink Franken’s candidacy — after all, Minnesota did elect Jesse Ventura in the 1990s and Jim Webb survived revelations about graphic writings in Virginia in 2006 — but given that his main challenge is to demonstrate that he is a “serious” candidate, Porn-O-Rama is strengthening doubts that were already lingering about the Democrat.

After a year of admiring articles praising him for a successful transition from comic to politician, the tide appears to have turned. Yet, the DFL’s convention is in a month, and it is difficult to see how Franken could not be chosen ever since rival Mike Ciresi abruptly dropped out of the race. Also, it is important to keep things in perspective: Despite the increasing criticism Franken is facing, he is holding his own in polls. The latest survey found him trailing by only 2%.

Update: Late-night Senate news from Texas in the form of a poll.

  • GOP firm Baselice & Associates finds Senator Cornyn leading Rick Noriega 49% to 34%.

While the incumbent is under 50%, that is a much more reassuring margin than the back-to-back 47% to 43% leads he posted in Rasmussen and Research 2000 earlier in May. Despite those numbers, I had left the race in 12th position in my latest Senate rankings to reflect the enormity of the task that lies ahead of Noriega. He must not only rely on an environment that is toxic to Republicans but soften up Cornyn much more than he is now to score what would be a big upset.