Archive for the 'MD-Pres' Category

Poll watch: Dead heats in Michigan, Florida as NC poll finds second tie ever; Hagan leads

Published
by
Taniel
on September 21, 2008
in AL-Pres, CT-04, CT-Pres, FL-Pres, IA-Pres, ID-01, ID-Sen, IL-Pres, MD-Pres, ME-Pres, MI-Pres, MO-06, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, ND-Pres, OH-Pres, SC-Pres, SC-Sen and TN-Pres
. 2 Comments

There are now enough polls released every day that it becomes difficult to find a consistent trend out of all the noise. Or perhaps there is no trend to be observed other than the race’s continuing tightness. Of the four Florida and Michigan polls that were released over the past 36 hours, all are well within the margin of error.

That said, both candidates have good news in today’s poll delivery. For McCain, staying so close in Michigan in polls taken during the financial crisis is a testament to how big an opportunity this state continues to be for him. And McCain has leads outside of the MoE in Ohio and Missouri today, though the latter is not such an unqualified blessing: the GOP was hoping to be close to closing the deal by late September, but a 4% margin is not going to dissuade Obama from competing in the Show Me State. And yet another poll finds that McCain can breath easier in North Dakota.

For Obama, staying so close in Florida is a relief given that numerous polls have found McCain gaining since early August. We saw last week that McCain is now spending more than a million dollars a week in the Sunshine State, something the GOP once thought it could avoid. And Obama’s double-digit lead in Iowa confirms that the state’s 7 electoral votes are increasingly solid in his column: This is the third poll in the past two weeks to find Obama leading by double-digit (after SUSA and Selzer & Co). Finally, North Carolina’s PPP poll is only the second ever (after Rasmussen’s April poll) to find a tie. At the very least, this forces the GOP to continue pouring money in the state - something they have been doing this month.

On to the day’s full roundup:

  • The tracking polls are showing a stabilizing race: Obama took a 48% to 47% advantage in Rasmussen yesterday (his first lead in 10 days) and maintained it today; Research 2000 found Obama up 8% yesterday, and up 7% (49-42) today. Diego Hotline has Obama leading 45% to 44% for the third straight day, and Gallup showed Obama increasing his lead to 6% yesterday (hitting 50 for only the second time ever) but back down to a 49% to 45% advantage today.
  • Obama leads 43% to 42% in an EPIC-MRA poll of Michigan. Obama led by 2% in July and August. When respondents are presented with a full-ticket match-up, Obama leads 45% to 42%. The poll was conducted Sunday through Wednesday.
  • Obama leads 48% to 46% in an ARG poll of Michigan. He leads among independents but is relatively weak among Democrats.
  • McCain leads 47% to 45% in a Miami Herald poll of Florida. It was conducted Sunday through Wednesday. Obama has a 9% edge on the economy. McCain gets 17% of former Clinton supporters.
  • McCain leads 48% to 42% in a Ohio News Organization of Ohio. The poll is somewhat dated - it was taken the 12th to the 16th. 19% of independents are undecided.
  • The candidates are tied at 46% in PPPs poll from North Carolina. Bob Barr gets 5%. Only once before had there been a tie in North Carolina (Rasmussen’s April survey). 58% of respondents rate the economy as their biggest concern. The poll was conducted from the 17th to the 19th.
  • Obama leads 53% to 39% in a Research 2000 poll of Iowa. Obama leads by 18% among independents.
  • McCain leads 49% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll of Missouri. In the July poll, Obama led by 5% - but that was somewhat of an outlier.
  • McCain leads 53% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll of North Dakota. He led by only 3% in July.
  • Obama leads only 50% to 46% in a Rasmussen poll of Maine. There is no breakdown by district, but if Obama cannot win statewide by a larger margin he would be in danger of losing the first district’s EV.
  • McCain leads 51% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of South Carolina, a surprisingly close result.
  • Obama leads 54% to 43% in an ARG poll of Connecticut.
  • Obama leads 54% to 39% in an ARG poll of Maryland.
  • McCain leads 59% to 36% in an ARG poll of Tennessee. Obama gets 27% of the white vote.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole 46% to 41% in PPPs poll of North Carolina’s Senate race. She led by 1% last week.
  • Chris Shays and Jim Himes are tied at 45% in an internal poll for the Himes campaign in CT-04.
  • Sam Graves leads Kay Barnes 51% to 42% in a SUSA poll of MO-06.
  • Jim Risch leads Larry LaRocco 56% to 33% in a Research 2000 poll of Idaho’s Senate race, a clear improvement over his 10% lead in July.
  • Lindsay Graham leads 50% to 41% in a Rasmussen poll of South Carolina’s Senate race. This was accompanied by an improbably tight presidential survey, so take the tightness here with a grain of salt as well.

This is the second time Hagan is posting a 5% lead, testifying to how unpredictable that Senate race has become given that other surveys are still showing Dole ahead. This is a race in which the presidential coattails will play a crucial factor. It’s unlikely Hagan can win if McCain wins in a blowout, but she would look very strong if Obama is within 2-3% of McCain.

Today’s polls also find more worrisome news for down-the-ballot Democrats, starting with Graves’ expanding his lead in MO-06, in what is one of the Democrats’ most coveted seats. We have seen this trend for a few weeks now: Democrats are not improving their position in the second-and-third tier races, the ones that would transform a strong congressional night into an amazing one.

Poll watch: In convention aftermath, McCain surges in NC and MT but national NBC finds dead heat

Published
by
Taniel
on September 9, 2008
in FL-Pres, MD-Pres, MI-Pres, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NJ-Pres, Nat-Poll, OK-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-04, WA-Gov and WI-Pres
. 4 Comments

Update: SUSA’s poll also tested North Carolina’s gubernatorial match-up and finds Pat McCrory leading by 8%, which is out of line with every single poll we have seen of this race. This suggests that (1) there might be a problem with the sample/partisan breakdown or (2) that the past 10 days have so improved the GOP brand that they are posting gains up and down the ballot. But this much of a shift is not being picked up by any other polls, so the fact that McCrory is so far ahead makes me doubt that option 2 could manifest itself this clearly already. All of this only ups the stakes for polls to come in the coming days (and PPP has gone in the field in North Carolina to test SUSA’s survey).

Original post: This morning, Gallup released a breakdown of its tracking results by partisan affiliation, revealing that McCain’s boost had been powered by a massive surge among independents. McCain’s 15% lead was much higher than any margin either candidate had enjoyed since the beginning of Gallup’s trackings. Other national polls - CBS and ABC - showed McCain gaining an advantage among independents.

Now, a North Carolina poll is finding two significant shifts that are boosting McCain. First the Republican is surging among independents; second, the partisan breakdown has dramatically shifted to go back to what it was in 2004. Other polls have also found an increase in the proportion of self-identified Republicans. If this does not fade in upcoming polls, it would make a huge difference in our assumptions about the election.

However, and before Democrats panic, these are the kinds of changes that are directly related to the GOP convention, and thus the kinds of changes that might fade once the bounce phase is over. The GOP hopes that the Palin boost will keep partisan identification and independent allegiances where it is now; Democrats hope that Obama hammering McCain with “more of the same” ads and focusing on the economy will tamper GOP enthusiasm and shift numbers back. We will know more about this in the coming week.

In any case, these changes allow McCain to capture his first double-digit lead in NC since January - and a big one at that, twenty percent. Keep in mind that the poll was taken Saturday to Monday, in the immediate post-convention aftermath, so we will certainly have to wait for a poll to be taken at another time before drawing conclusions. But another poll from a red state - Montana - also finds McCain surging ahead for the first time of the campaign, suggesting that the convention and the Palin pick might have allowed him to boost his position in red state by solidifying and exciting his base.

Indeed, it is noteworthy that the numbers in battleground states are staying much more stable than in red states right now. If that means that most of McCain’s bounce is concentrated on places he should have won but was underperforming, that could be fine for Democrats: while they ought to feel frustrated if they lose their opening in MT and NC, those states are nowhere as important as CO, FL, OH, VA, and NV.

All of this is to say that there is much for McCain supporters to be excited about over the past two days, but Obama backers should certainly not panic until there are signs that McCain’s bounce is here to stay. I repeat: McCain should be very happy with his bounce but we should wait a few more days and a few more polls before writing states off and drawing big conclusions. After all, remember that there almost no state polls taken in the immediate aftermath of the Denver convention. Here’s today’s full rundown:

  • In the day’s most important national poll, NBC News/WSJ finds McCain closing the gap with Obama but not as much as other surveys have found. The survey was taken Saturday through Monday and has Obama up (well within the margin of error) 46% to 45%. In August, the margin was 3%.
  • Both candidates get about 90% of their base. Republicans are three times more enthusiastic than they were in July. Obama’s lead among women is down to 4%, but one strange statistic: McCain leads among women 18-49! 52% of respondents say Obama would bring real change, versus 35% for McCain. That is an improvement over the 21% he got in June, but it shows the challenge of McCain’s suddenly running on a platform of change.
  • Today’s tracking polls: Rasmussen is back to its Sunday result (a tie), Gallup does not move since yesterday (49% to 44% for McCain) and Diego Hotline has McCain leading by 1%.
  • ARG’s national poll has Obama at 47% and McCain at 46%. The poll was taken Saturday through Monday and shows a 5% gain for McCain. Almost all the change comes from registered Democrats, where Obama is back under 80%.
  • In what is the day’s biggest shocker, SUSA finds McCain jumping to a huge lead in North Carolina, 58% to 38%. This is primarily due to Obama’s collapse among independents - he now trails by 25% among those voters - as well as a shift in partisan identification. It was 46% Democratic, 33% Republican last month; now, it’s 41% Rep, 40% Dem - the same as 2004. If that shift is confirmed in the coming weeks, it would be a dramatic change whose impact cannot be overstated.
  • Another important poll comes from Montana, where Rasmussen finds McCain surging to his first double-digit lead, 53% to 42%. The state was tied last month. This poll was taken on Monday night.
  • In Florida (polling history), PPP finds a slight improvement for McCain, whose lead is now outside of the MoE, 50% to 45% (McCain led by 3% last month). The big shift has occurred among white voters, as undecideds are breaking McCain’s way and as he is now leading 61% to 34% among that group. The sample is more Republican than last month’s (+2 instead of -3) and in line with the 2004 exit poll.
  • In Michigan (polling history), Strategic Vision finds a 1% race, 45% to 44%. It’s SV’s first poll from the state.
  • In Wisconsin (polling history), Strategic Vision shows Obama’s lead tightening to 46% to 43%. Last month, Obama led by 5%. This is Obama’s smallest lead in the state since he got the nomination.
  • In New Jersey, Farleigh Dickinson finds Obama leading 47% to 41% - a bounce for McCain from the 49% to 33% margin in June.
  • No surprises in SUSA’s Oklahoma poll, as McCain crushes Obama 65% to 32%.
  • Finally, a new IBD/TIPP national poll finds Obama leading 45% to 40%. I am putting this one last because this survey was taken from last Tuesday through Saturday - so it is older than much of hte polls we have been seeing.

Just like yesterday, most polls from key battleground states show little movement, though McCain is posting small gains in a number of them - Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Montana North Carolina polls are of course the exception, and if McCain can keep up his gains in them it would be a huge relief for Republicans. Apart from that, the list of battlegrounds is looking to be the same as ever, and we will be keeping an eye on Wisconsin, where Strategic Vision typically posts narrower numbers than other polling outlets.

Poll roundup: Obama leads in MI, MN; race is within 2 points in FL, NV, NH, NC

Published
by
Taniel
on August 22, 2008
in FL-Pres, KS-Pres, KS-Sen, MD-Pres, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-09, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NH-Gov, NH-Pres, NH-Sen, NM-Pres, NM-Sen and PA-Pres
. 8 Comments

What a polling day! Over the past 24 hours, we got 8 surveys from states that are rated toss-ups or lean, including polls from three of the big four (MI, FL, and PA). After a week of worrisome polls for Democrats, today’s survey should reassure them. While Obama has not inched back ahead here, he does take a solid lead in Minnesota for the first time in four polls, leads outside of the margin of error in Michigan and Pennsylvania as well as in Bush-state New Mexico and he is within 2% in red Florida, North Carolina, Nevada.

McCain receives good news as well, however, as he looks to be in the running in Pennsylvania, fully closes the gap in New Hampshire in two separate polls and jumps 13% in Minnesota if Tim Pawlenty is included as his VP. Here is the full roundup:

  • In Florida (polling history) it’s a one point race as McCain stays stable at 47% and Obama rises by 1% at 46% in ARG’s latest poll. Obama’s share of the Democratic vote is slightly lower than McCain’s share of the GOP vote, but Democrats make up a bigger proportion of the sample. And take a look at this: “45% of likely voters say they would never vote for John McCain in the general election, up from 32% in July, and 33% of likely voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the general election, down from 39% in July.”
  • In Pennsylvania (polling history), Obama leads 45% to 40% in a new Rasmussen poll (48% to 45% with leaners). That’s a slight tightening over the past month.
  • In Michigan (polling history), a new Detroit Free Press poll conducted by Ann Selzer brings good news to the Illinois Senator, who leads 46% to 39%. Obama leads 2-1 among first time voters.
  • Insider Advantage’s first poll of North Carolina (polling history) has a tight race well within the margin of error, with McCain leading 45% to 43%.
  • In the race for New Mexico’s five electoral votes, Obama maintains his lead in Rasmussen’s latest poll, 47% to 41%. The margin is 48% to 44% when leaners are factored in. Obama
  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen finds that Obama has lost the large lead he once enjoyed. Up 11% in June and 6% in July, Obama now gets 43% to McCain’s 42%. The margin stays the same with leaners, 47% to 46%. McCain has solidified the Republican base.
  • Another poll from the state, released by ARG, finds Obama ahead 46% to 45%. He led by 2% last month.
  • In Minnesota (polling history), a Minnesota Public Radio has Obama’s first double-digit lead in the state in a while, up 48% to 38%. Nader gets 3%. But when Pawlenty is included as McCain’s running-mate, the GOP ticket jumps 13%!
  • In Nevada, a Research 2000 poll shows a one point race, with Obama getting 44% and McCain 43%.
  • In Maryland, finally, Obama is up 53% to 41% (53% to 43% with leaners) in a Rasmussen poll.
  • In Kansas, it’s McCain on top by a large margin in SUSA, 58% to 35%. No surprises here.

None of these results are surprising, though it is so rare to see numbers from New Mexico or Nevada that any poll release from those states is an event. Obama looks to be building a consistent lead in NM in particular, but it is difficult to draw any conclusions given that there have only been 4 polls released in more than two months - three of which have come from Rasmussen. (Needless to say, Obama would be very close to the prize if he were to start with New Mexico and Iowa leaning in his direction.)

Obama supporters will be happy to see that these polls do not find McCain gaining in states like Florida, North Carolina and Minnesota - states in which other August surveys found McCain improving his position. And the Michigan survey has to be particularly heartwarming for Democrats, as Ann Selzer is a very reputable pollster (albeit one that is based in Iowa) and Michigan looks to be one of the most dangerous states for Obama. As I said above, however, the NH surveys are great news for McCain, as they mostly erase the notion that Obama has an advantage in the Granite State (though David Broder has concluded that the state leans Obama). McCain could gain some valuable breathing room if he were to capture those 4 electoral votes.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In New Hampshire’s Senate race, Jeanne Shaheen maintains a double-digit lead in ARG, 52% to 41%. That includes a 61% to 33% lead among independents. In July, Shaheen led by 22% - but that had always been somewhat of an outlier.
  • In the New Mexico Senate race, today’s Rasmussen poll is the first sign that Tom Udall might not be as safe a bet as we thought, as he loses significant amount of ground. He still leads 51% to 41%, however (52% to 44% with leaners).
  • In the North Carolina gubernatorial race, the Civitas institute finds a close race, with Perdue leading 43% to 41%. She was up by 3% last month.
  • In the NH’s gubernatorial race, no surprises as Gov. Lynch crushes his minor Republican opposition.
  • In MO-09, an internal poll for the campaign of Judy Baker finds the Democrat narrowly ahead of Blaine Luetkemeyer, 41% to 39%. However, Republicans are much more undecideds than Democrats.
  • And in the Kansas Senate race, Senator Roberts crushes his opponent Jim Slattery despite talk by some Democrats that this is a winnable race. Roberts leads 58% to 31%.

Some interesting numbers here as well, and ARG’s poll is the second in as many days to find Shaheen with a double-digit lead. For an incumbent to enter the fall trailing is always a bad sign, but to have been stuck in the low 40s since the first polls of the cycle is devastating. At least, Sununu has a big enough warchest that he will be able to deal some harsh blows and perhaps tighten the race, but Shaheen retains a clear advantage. As for the New Mexico race, Pearce and Udall have exchanged ads lately, and the Club for Growth has gotten involved on the Republican’s behalf. Yet, no other poll has shown any sign that the race is anything but a blowout for Udall, so we will have to wait and see what other surveys have to say about this.

As for MO-09, this is the first poll to be released from this race. It is great news for Judy Baker that she is this competitive in a conservative district, as her primary opponent’s supporters said that she was too liberal to fit the district. There are two ways to read the results, however. On the one hand, Luetkemeyer has much more of a reserve and could progress as the primary wounds heal; on the other, this reveals a deep malaise with the GOP in Missouri (one that cost Jim Talent his Senate seat in 2006 and that is putting Jay Nixon ahead of his gubernatorial race right now) and that will boost Baker.