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Category Archive for ‘MD-Dem’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'MD-Dem' Category


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After Potomac, Obama is the clear mathematical frontrunner

Barack Obama had never been so close to the Democratic nomination. And this is not so because he won 7 states in a row. Those wins were entirely expected, after all, and while the Obama campaign was confident that it would help them, they were more concerned with holding their own serve, and trying to break Clinton’s on March 4th.

Even facing such high expectations, Obama managed to over-perform. As of last Wednesday morning, the upcoming calendar was clearly favoring Obama, but was unlikely to give him a big enough boost to give him an air of inevitability. Yet, he has managed to acquire one after the vote of a handful of states that expectations had already set-up for him.

The Democratic race became nothing more than a delegate chase on Super Tuesday, and the Illinois Senator opened up some big margins first over the week-end and then today: +9 in Washington, + 16 in Maryland and + 24/25 in Virginia. That’s a 50 delegates margin just out of the Potomac primary, and it gives Obama a 111 pledged delegate lead overall. More importantly, Obama keeps that lead when the superdelegates are thrown in.

Hillary Clinton was expecting to lose, but not by such margins. Virginia’s demographics were playing against her, but they do not justify the magnitude of yesterday’s loss, and one which was not necessarily predicted by polls. Most surveys had Obama hovering around 60%. The Clinton campaign had prepared its arguments for why Obama’s February sweep did not matter, for why anything was still possible and March 4th would reverse the trend; but it had not necessarily prepared its arguments for why a 111 pledged delegate lead does not matter. And this for a very simple reason, no one — including the campaign — really expected Obama’s margin to be this big at this point.

David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, argued today that, “I don’t think it’s so much about momentum as the reality of the math.” To come back in the pledged delegate count, Clinton has to keep things close in Wisconsin and then get significant victories in Ohio and Texas on March 4th — a simple victory is not enough. Complicating the problem is the fact that the Texas system is so designed that it will make it very hard for Clinton to get a meaningful delegate lead there unless she really crushes Obama, which she has not been able to do anywhere given Obama’s strong base of support among some constituencies.

Of course, pledged delegates aren’t everything, and even if she does not catch Obama in that count, Clinton could still pull out a victory thanks to superdelegates. But that scenario implies that the delegate count remains somewhat close which it is not for now. Superdelegates will not go for the trailing candidate if the pledged delegate margin is too large. But depending on how much space there is between the two, Clinton has two arguments she could use: (1) A lead in the popular vote, which she does not have right now but could vault into if she wins OH, TX and PA, and (2) Florida and Michigan. The NAACP has now gotten involve in the latter controversy, demanding that the delegates of both states be sited.

In their speeches last night, Obama and John McCain took shots at each other, in a preview of possible general election themes. Obama sought to link McCain to Bush (”George Bush won’t be on the ballot this November, but his war and his tax cuts for the wealthy will.”) and followed that up with what has become his standard McCain attack, “Somewhere along the road to the Republican nomination, the Straight Talk Express lost its wheels.” In response, McCain pointed Obama’s lack of experience and substantive positions in his own speech, directly attacking the message of hope:

To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude… I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need.

But both are pressing forward much too quicky. The Democratic primary is not over by any means. Yes, Obama is now the front-runner, but he has many significant hurdles left. The one Ohio poll we have seen has Clinton up 17%, and if she can hold herself to double-digits she could have a big enough night on March 4th to stay in the game.

Second, a new poll from Wisconsin has a very tight race. Strategic Vision shows Obama at 45% and Clinton at 41%, and while Clinton will not campaign that much in Wisconsin she is running ads and trying to get the state organized. A win here would obviously give her some relief and, while not closing the delegate count, it would allow her to stop Obama’s momentum going into March 4th.

Clinton’s biggest problem might be the media now, and whether they bury her under a deluge of question about her campaign, the shake-ups that have been taking place (with Solis Doyle being accompanied last night by deputy campaign manager Mike Henry) and the challenges of the delegate count. If Hillary Clinton stays on message, she could have a good night on March 4th and keep herself in. And she will have two more debates until then to help her and don’t underestimate those. Twice already when she was in trouble (in NH and in the days following South Carolina), Clinton relied on a debate to stop the Obama buzz and survive.

Finally, the turnout discrepancy between the two parties is to big to not report. In Virginia, Hillary Clinton got 100,000 more votes than did John McCain, and Barack Obama got 100,000 more votes than all the Republicans combined. Virginia is no longer a strongly red state, but you would not expect this kind of gap there either. One of the reasons for this is surely that the GOP race is less contested now, but keep in mind that the Republican base clearly went out to vote yesterday — which is what got Huckabee so close. What was missing were the moderate Republicans and independents.


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The Potomac primary: Can Huckabee catch-up and can Clinton cut margins?

Polls are now open in the Potomac primary, in DC, Maryland and Virgina. On the Democratic side, there is very little suspense as to the winner, though Clinton is hoping to cut Obama’s margins a little. On the Republican side, Huckabee has been making a major play for Virginia, but it could be too little, too late.

ARG just released its final polls of Virginia and Maryland. Both surveys were in the field on Sunday-Monday:

  • On the Democratic side, there is very little movement from the Friday-Saturday poll. Clinton trails in Maryland 55% to 38% and in Virginia 57% to 40%.
  • The GOP numbers are more interesting. In Maryland, McCain is ahead 53% to 27%. But in Virginia, McCain has collapsed from a 22% lead to an 8% one, 47% to 39%.

The Virginia trendline is almost exactly the same we saw in SUSA, whose Sunday poll showed a sudden tightening of the race compared to the Thursday numbers. Huckabee is making a late charging in Virginia, and a victory here could mark a major shift in the Republican contest, as it would mean that McCain will have to fight much longer than he expected to get the nomination. Helping Huckabee is the fact that many moderate voters might be discouraged to vote since they think McCain has wrapped it up, and the conservatives of the party seem to be more motivated to make a stand right now than those who might be more comfortable with the Arizona Senator.

Unfortunately for Huckabee, the delegate allocation rules could play out at McCain’s advantage once again. Virginia is winner-take-all and awards a 60 delegates, so even a very narrow loss would shut Huckabee out entirely from the delegate count. Given that McCain is likely to take all of Maryland’s 37 delegates (winner-take all statewide and by district) and DC’s 15 delegates (also winner-take-all), that would give McCain a massive boost towards the finish line, likely marking the end of any McCain resistance.

On the Democratic side, it’s all about the delegate count. And RT strategies just released an impressive poll with 14,000 interviews in Maryland, DC and Virginia combined. The poll has district-by-district breakdown, with projections of delegate allocations! Scroll to it if you have time here. Overall, Obama is projected with a 32 net delegate lead out of tonight’s primaries.

  • In DC, Obama is leading 63% to 27%, which would give him a 6 or 7 delegate lead.
  • In Virginia, the race is pitted at 51% Obama and 34% Clinton, which would result in a 13 delegate difference. At the district-by-district level, most places Clinton is competitive in are even delegate districts, which means it will be difficult for her to invert this trend.
  • In Maryland, finally, Obama leads 53% to 36%, which would result in somewhere close to a 12 delegate lead. Here again, the most competitive districts are even-delegate, so we should not hold our breath as to what happens there.

The question out of tonight is whether Obama can take the lead in the delegate count which includes super delegates, as that could be a very important measure going into the all-important Wisconsin primary.


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Monday polls: Are tomorrow’s contests more suspensful on the GOP side than the Democratic?

Barack Obama and John McCain are expected to post some big victories tomorrow, according to most polls that have been released and to even a quick look of Virginia and Maryland’s demographics. A wave of polls today does very little to dispel the conventional wisdom, though it is interesting that the GOP primary is now emerging as a bit more suspensful. Let’s look at the polls, first from tomorrow’s largest prize of Virginia:

  • SUSA shows Mike Huckabee gaining on McCain, trailing 48% to 37%. That’s a 19% improvement for Huck since 3 days ago — the previous poll was taken immediately after Super Tuesday.
  • In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton appears ready to sink in yet another Southern state, trailing 40% to 38%.
  • ARG has similar numbers, showing Obama up 56% to 38%. Interestingly, the two are within a few points in the 70% of registered Democrats, and Obama is creating this margin solely among independents.
  • Among Republicans, ARG shows McCain up comfortably, 54% to 32%.
  • Finally, a Mason-Dixon poll has Obama leading 53% to 37%. Among Republicans, it’s 55-27 (though this poll was in the field at the same time as the first SUSA survey, the one that had McCain up 30%. So if Huckabee is indeed surging among Virginia conservatives, this poll would not pick it up).

The numbers in Maryland are very much in line with Virginia’s:

  • Among Democrats, Mason-Dixon has Obama leading 53% to 35%, ARG shows 55% to 37% and SUSA has it at 55% to 32%.
  • McCain is up 54% to 23% in Mason-Dixon, 50% to 25% in ARG and 52% to 26% in SUSA.

Clinton does get some good news in a poll from Rhode Island, which votes on the now all important March 4th. She is up 36% to 28% against Obama, and she obviously would love to counter Obama’s February sweep with a March 4th sweep of her own (we are very far from discussing that, obviously). The poll also throws in general election questions, and both Democrats beat John McCain by low double digits in this very blue state.

The reason the GOP primary tomorrow is so important is that it could very well mark the end of Huckabee’s resistance. McCain’s problem appears to be that he is unable to win over conservative voters, and Huckabee won most of the Southern states of Super Tuesday and Louisiana on Saturday. If McCain crushes Huckabee tomorrow night (say by 20% or so) it is hard to see how Huckabee can justify his going forward if he has been trounced so decisively on his own turf (there are many reasons why Virginia is not exaclty Huckabee’s home turf, as the demographics of the state allow McCain to win without relying on the staunchly conservative vote, but Huckabee does at some point have to enlarge his base a bit if he wants to extend this).

On the other hand, if this week-end’s contests have given renewed hope to McCain’s detractors that the front-runner is not necessarily a done deal, Huckabee could make this close by benefiting from a big conservative turnout. Without really threatening McCain’s dominant position, that would be one more embarassing loss for the Arizona Senator that would force him to court the Right even more zealously.

In the Democratic race, the situation is very simple: Hillary Clinton can afford to lose, but she cannot afford to lose by these margins nor give up that many delegates for the 3rd election day in a row. She is starting to fall back rapidly in the delegate count. Her victories have tended to be more limited in size, as even a 10% California victory is not helping her as much as Obama’s 30% wins in Minnesota or Washington (though it appears that Puerto Rico could very well make or break either candidate in June, as the tradition of that contest is to award all 63 delegates at once… That could get them into trouble with the DNC, by the way, so this is another story line to follow).

Meanwhile, USA Today Gallup and the AP have two general election polls out, both showing Obama running narrowly better than Clinton against McCain:

  • USA/Today has Obama leading McCain 50% to 46%, while McCain edges out Clinton 49% to 48%.
  • AP has Obama up McCain 48% to 42%, and Clinton edging him 46% to 45%.

My most recent discussion of electability is here. There are also national primary numbers, though these are really not very useful anymore; for all it’s worth the AP has Clinton up 46-41 (though most media outlets are reporting this wrong with Obama up, the AP is now correcting itself and has Clinton up) and Gallup has Obama leading 47% to 44%. The


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It’s Election Day, again: Can Clinton win a state this week-end?

Three states are voting today on the Democratic side, with one primary (Louisiana) and two caucuses (Washington and Nebraska). Tomorrow, another caucus will announce its results in Maine.

Barack Obama is favored to win the February primaries, leading to March 4th’s Ohio and Texas. A poll yesterday had Clinton leading in Wisconsin, but a few more will be needed before expectations switch. These next four days are especially difficult for Clinton, as she is heading to a potentially disastrous Potomac primary on Tuesday. Two new polls from Maryland and Virginia were released this morning, and they show how dire the situation could be in Clinton come Wednesday morning:

  • Rasmussen shows Obama crushing Clinton in Maryland, 57% to 31%. Black voters split 82-12 in Obama’s favor, while whites split equally between the two.
  • The numbers are barely better in Virginia, where Rasmussen shows Obama up 55% to 37%, a result very much consistent with the SUSA and Insider Advantage polls we saw yesterday. Obama leads among white men in this Rasmussen poll, and Clinton manages a slightly higher proportion of the black vote, 22%.

These two surveys underscore just how important it is for Clinton to (1) keep the margins relatively closer come Tuesday and (2) get a win this week-end among the four voting states to prevent a seven-state sweep by Obama heading into Wisconsin.

But can Clinton deliver even one victory? Judging by the results on Tuesday, both Louisiana and Nebraska look good for Obama, who did very well both in the deep South and in a red-state caucus. Louisiana’s is attributing 56 delegates, and polls close at 9pm ET (and it is a closed primary). In Nebraska, there are 24 delegates at stake and caucuses will take place all throughout the day, the earliest starting at 11:00am ET and the last closing at 9:30pm ET. Clinton did make an effort in both of these states, for example running an ad in Nebraska touting Bob Kerrey’s endorsement.

Washington is a very confusing state: It holds both caucuses (today) and primaries (on the 19th). But the primary will determine no delegate at all and is only a beauty contest. First caucuses begin at 4pm ET, last ones end at 9pm ET. Now, Obama has been organizing in this state much earlier than Clinton, and he has 5 offices. A SUSA poll released this morning shows that only about a third of Democrats who are thinking of voting will participate in the caucuses, and those favor Obama 63% to 33%. Among all voters, they are pretty much tied.

This underscores the difficulty Clinton faces among these caucus states and such a large loss could create a disproportionate allocation of delegates, of which there are 78 at stake. And Clinton has been aggressively pushing the narrative of the undemocratic nature of the caucus process (a sentiment with which I agree, as I wrote at the end of 2007, 10 days before Iowa). From today’s New York Times preview:

Mrs. Clinton… suggested that she did not expect to win in Washington, as many of her supporters would be too busy working to break away from their schedules and spend the time to caucus for her.

“If this were a primary, where everybody could vote all day, I’d feel pretty good about it,” she said. “But it’s not. It’s a caucus.”

In the search for an explanation as to why Obama performs so much better in caucus states rather than primary states (the main explanation I gave for now was that Obama actually organized and ran ads in many of Super Tuesday’s caucus states whereas Clinton did not), Clinton might have a point here, as her electorate tends to be more working-class than Obama’s, so that it is natural to expect her to be more affected by the fact that the caucus system expects you to devote a few hours of your time at a determined hour. That was less of a problem in Iowa and Nevada because the publicity of these contests — particularly in Iowa — allowed all campaigns to prepare for caucus night, find people to baby-sit your children, etc.

Clinton’s best chance could be tomorrow in the Maine caucuses, a state with few students and with a large working-class electorate. 24 delegates are stake here, so whoever wins will not get a big delegate advantage at all, but it could symbolically prove as important than the other contests given that Obama could use Maine to make life very difficult for Clinton in the coming weeks.

It is also worth noting that the Virgin Islands will also vote today and 3 delegates are at stake. In the situation we are in now where every delegate counts, one candidate will emerge with a small advantage of one delegate (Clinton did in American Samoa).


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First assesment of post-Super Tuesday contests

We got a few days of rest after the deluge of polls that marked the run-up to Super Tuesday; but with 7 states voting in the next few days, polls were bound to start coming in again. At a time most of us were expecting to relax a little in preparation for a grueling general election, there is still a lot to cover in the Clinton-Obama race.

Two polls from Virginia were released this afternoon and confirmed the conventional wisdom that the Potomac primary is ideally suited for Obama:

  • First, a SUSA poll shows Barack Obama up a significant 59% to 39%. He is leading 87% to 12% among blacks — which make 29% of the electorate — and manages to tie Clinton among whites, at 49%.
  • Obama’s showing among both groups is particularly strong. He seems to be continually rising among African-Americans, and it is particularly important for Clinton to stay above 15% (which she did on Tuesday) to make sure she is viable in all districts.
  • An Insider Advantage poll confirms SUSA’s finding, showing Obama ahead 52% to 37%.
  • SUSA also released a poll of the GOP race taken yesterday night — after Romney’s withdrawal — and it shows McCain picking up most of Romney’s votes and crushing Huckabee, 57% to 25%.

SUSA also released a poll from Maryland, which holds its primary the same day as Virginia:

  • Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 52% to 33%. They are tied among women, but Obama leads among men by 37%! Furthermore, they are tied among whites (Clinton is up 42-40) but Obama leads 71% to 18% among black voters. 39% of the sample is African-American, underscoring the challenge Clinton faces on Tuesday.
  • Among Republicans, there is more suspense for second-place than for first, as McCain is ahead of Huckabee 56% to 17%, with Paul in double-digits, at 10%.

Obama’s victories in Virginia and Maryland are expected at this point, but that does not mean Clinton has nothing to lose here. She cannot afford a 20% loss yet again: Virginia allocates 101 delegates, and Clinton could wake up on Wednesday to find herself trailing widely in the pledged delegates count.

Virginia is particularly suited to Obama, and the margins he has opened up in these two polls is not surprising. A third of the state’s Democratic electorate is African-American, and Obama has most of those voters in his camp. He does need a share of the white vote to prevail, but this is where Virginia is so good for Obama: Northern Virginia consists in the DC suburbs, and the electorate will not be as racially divided there as in other Southern states, ensuring that Obama gets a higher proportion of the white vote than he did in Georgia and Alabama. In other words, Virginia combines the high proportion of black voters of other Southern states without the extreme racial polarization that made Clinton run way ahead of Obama among white voters in places like Georgia.

In the GOP race, Virginia could very well be Huckabee’s last stand. The former Governor prevailed in a number of Southern states on Super Tuesday, and he who lives by a Southern strategy dies by a Southern strategy. If Huckabee cannot win Virginia — which is a very hard state for him to win given the growing prominence of moderate regions such as Fairfax — it is unclear where he can win down the line.

Hillary Clinton did get some good — and unexpected — poll news today, from Wisconsin (which votes on February 19th). Keep in mind that this is the first poll from Wisconsin we have seen since December:

  • An ARG poll of the race shows her ahead 50% to 41%. Clinton leads by 20% among registered Democrats, testifying to how much she is hurting in open primaries.

Fairly or unfairly, Wisonsin has been painted as a state Obama is expected to win. Obama’s campaign itself did nothing to squash that conventional wisdom, admitting it was expecting to do well throughout the February primaries. The next few weeks will be all about “holding serve” — Obama has to win the February states, with Clinton facing a do-or-die situation in Ohio and Texas on March 4th.

This ARG poll suggests the story is not that simple. If Clinton wins here, she would diminish the pressure of getting both Ohio and Texas and get at least a few good news cycle in the next few weeks. But the question she now faces is how much the coming Obama victories over the week-end and on Tuesday will affect the results of Wisconsin? Will the Potomac Primary give Obama a boost, or are wins there now so expected that they will leave the fundamental dynamics as is? The answer to these questions will mostly depend on the margins that open up on the 12th.

Finally, it’s worth noting that itis not just Americans who are unable to decide between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. A poll conducted in France finds that the French are torn between the two as well… 38% say they would prefer that American Democrats choose Obama, 36% Clinton, with 26% undecideds (that’s a lower rate of undecideds than in some polls we see over here).



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    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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