Archive for the 'LA-04' Category

NRCC works to ensure vulnerable Blue Dogs are not once again left unchallenged

Published
by
Taniel
on May 8, 2009
in AR-01, ID-01, LA-04, ND-AL, OH-18 and TN-08
. 1 Comment

Two days ago, the NRCC celebrated two recruitment successes against traditionally safe Democrats. Puzzled by the GOP’s excitement in at least one of these districts, I warned that Republicans should be careful not to be distracted: Given all the red territory Democrats conquered in 2006 and in 2008, they are many seats they should be a higher priority to them and their limited funds than CA-47.

The NRCC has also been working to expand the map in other districts that have not been competitive in recent cycles - but this time, their strategy is more logical as they are not losing sight of Democrats who should be their primary targets.

A few days ago, the committee launched a new wave of ads; unlike earlier mass offensives that attacked dozens of Democrats, this one targets a far narrower group of only 5 Democrats:

  • Marion Berry (AR-01): He represents an increasingly Republican district that voted for Al Gore in 2000 but gave John McCain a 21% victory last fall.
  • Charlie Melancon (LA-04): Melancon has faced no trouble winning re-election over the past two cycles despite representing a district that gave McCain 61%.
  • Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL): First elected in 1992, he has faced no trouble winning re-election since he survived a tough race in 2004. Interestingly, the district swung leftward last year: Bush received 63%, McCain received 53%.
  • Zach Space (OH-18): This district is not overwhelmingly conservative but it nonetheless leans red (Bush received 57%, McCain 43%). Interestingly, Space is the only Democrat to have been targeted by a NRCC-sponsored TV ad so far this cycle. But something changed
  • John Tanner (TN-08): A conservative Democrat, Tanner has easily won re-election since 1988; yet, his district has become increasingly Republican. In 2000, Al Gore won by 3%; last year, McCain prevailed by 13%.

As you are no doubt noticing, this is not the list of the GOP’s top takeover opportunities. Except for Space, these incumbents are well entrenched and not obviously vulnerable, while districts like AL-02, ID-01, MD-01 are not on this list. Does this mean that the NRCC is wasting its money? Certainly not.

At this early point of the cycle, the NRCC is not interested in spending too much money softening up Walt Minnick or Bobby Bright because those incumbents will be endangered in 2010 no matter what happens in 2009; they barely won last year, they represent conservative strongholds and they are certain to draw top-tier opposition. (In Idaho, for instance, Treasurer Ron Crane has been traveling to Washington in preparation for a challenge to Rep. Minnick.)

Yet, the 5 incumbents on this list are not certain to receive a credible challenge - even though the demographics of their districts makes them obvious targets. Indeed, what do these 5 Democrats have in common? Two things:

  1. They all won their 2006 and their 2008 races with ease and faced minimal opposition.
  2. They all represents districts won by George W. Bush in 2004 and for John McCain in 2008. (Interestingly, two of them went for Al Gore in 2000.)
  3. They are all part of the Blue Dog Coalition.

In short: The GOP has an interest in softening them early because it is the only way to ensure that at least some of them end up on the list of endangered incumbents in the summer and fall of 2010.

Many Blue Dog Democrats are so entrenched that nothing Republicans can do will hurt their poll numbers; but how can the NRCC know whether any of them might not be immune to their district’s rightward drift without going after them to test their strength and to signal to potential Republican candidates that they will have the national party’s attention?

The question the GOP wants answered is: Which (if any) of these Blue Dog Democrats have not solidified their conservative credentials enough that the district’s conservative voters could be turned against them? Accordingly, the new radio ads attack them for supporting congressional Democrats’ economic agenda; they questioned their Blue Dog credentials. (Listen to the ad against Melancon here.)

It is possible all 5 of these Democrats will prove too solid for the GOP to spend much time on them; but the fact of the matter is that the NRCC needs to target such districts if it wants to climb back to a majority.

Consider this a preview of the full ratings of the 68 Dem-held vulnerable House seats, which I will (finally) post on Monday.

Assessing Louisiana’s results

Published
by
Taniel
on December 7, 2008
in LA-02 and LA-04
. 6 Comments

While all eyes were on Louisiana’s Northwestern corridor, New Orleans sent a Republican - Anh Joseph Cao - to the House.

Let’s once again set the context of what is the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle. Yes, Rep. William Jefferson is indicted on corruption charges and has been stripped of his committee assignments - but LA-02 is a heavily African-American district that is more Democratic than any red district is Republican.

Simply put, such districts never ever elect a Republican and it is a sign of how damaged Jefferson had become that he lost his re-election race - even by only 3%. And even then, it took the special circumstances of an off-date election day (the general election had been postponed due to Hurricane Gustav) for Jefferson to actually go down: Turnout in white precincts was more than twice that of black precinct, sealing Jefferson’s doom.

Had the Jefferson-Cao match-up taken place on November 4th, there is little doubt that Jefferson would be heading to Washington. Nor, for that matter, would Cao have been able to defeat any other Democrat yesterday. What happened last night is entirely Democrats’ fault for not taking care of the Jefferson problem on their own - either by ostracizing him to such an extent as to render him unelectable or by organizing behind a single Democratic challenger to defeat him in the primary.

The good news for Democrats is that they are already heavily favored to reclaim the seat in 2010 - especially now that they are rid of Jefferson for good. It is almost inconceivable that Cao could win re-election.

This is why the Democrats’ apparent defeat in LA-04 is so much more painful. Paul Carmouche has not conceded the race yet (nor has the AP called it) and we could be heading to a recount, but John Fleming is hanging on to a 356 vote lead. If he emerges as the winner, he would be likely to keep the seat for as many years as he would like. This is the sort of heavily conservative seat (John McCain won LA-04 by 20%) that Democrats can only hope to pick-up as open seats, so this loss is a long-term one.

Coming just a few days after Saxby Chambliss’s triumph in Georgia’s Senate runoff, LA-04 allows the GOP to finish the year on a strong streak that will reassure Republicans that the worst is over and that voters no longer feel the need to punish them. If the Carmouche-Fleming match-up had occurred last spring (when Democrats picked-up LA-06, MS-01 and IL-14 in similar conditions), Carmouche might have been in a better position.

But yesterday’s results suggest that the Democratic base is no longer more enthused (since turnout for once favored Republicans) and that conservative-leaning independents that have been voting Democratic since 2006 might be returning to the GOP’s fold now that President Bush is on his way out.

This should serve as a warning sign to the Democratic incumbents elected in heavily Republican districts either this year or in 2008 - starting with ID-01, TX-17, KS-03, OH-18, … Unfortunately for Republicans, regaining those districts alone would not be enough to reclaim a majority in the House.

Stunner: GOP saves LA-04, picks up LA-02

Published
by
Taniel
on December 6, 2008
in LA-02 and LA-04
. 7 Comments

midnight: The margin in LA-02 did narrow - but not enough for Jefferson to take the lead. With all precincts reporting, Cao prevailed by 3% (about 2,000 votes). For an explanation as to how a Republican can beat a Democrat (even an indicted one) in a 50% African-American district, take a look at the drop in turnout in Orleans Parish: On November 4th, about 150,000 voters went to the polls. Today, that number fell to about 45,000!

A fuller analysis will wait until tomorrow, but this is clearly a great night for Republicans who save a highly endangered seat and pick up another one almost out of nowhere - holding the overall number of Democratic pick-ups to a net of 19 (with OH-15 and VA-05 still outstanding). It might also be a good night for the House Democratic leadership: They are finally rid of the Jefferson problem that has been giving them huge headaches for the past three years!

11:15pm: The AP calls New Orleans-based LA-02 for Republican Joseph Cao! This is an extremely heavy Democratic seat that virtually no one was paying attention to despite Jefferson’s indictement for corruption (it was assumed that Jefferson could only be defeated in the Democratic primaries). In fact, it is more Democratic than any red district is Republican. Beyond Jefferson’s indictment, an upset of this nature was only made possible by low turnout. 

11pm: Republicans saved LA-04 in a tight finish - though the race could be thrown into a recount since the margin is inferior to 0.5%. Bossier County’s final precincts allowed Fleming to take a stunning last-minute lead of only 356 votes - making this one of the tightest House races of the 2008 cycle and yet another heart-warming save for the GOP. Note that the AP has not yet called the race, so perhaps there is a reservoir of votes left somewhere (provisionals?), and we should postpone a final call if there is indeed the potential for a recount.

10:50pm: All parishes but Bossier have now finished reporting, accounting for 94% of the total vote, and Carmouche is ahead by 1,850 votes. If the remaining 37 precincts of Bossier comes like the 38 precincts that have already reported, Fleming should pick up about 1,750. Needless to say, this race remains too close to call.

10:35pm: With 90% of precincts reporting, Carmouche is holding on to a 1,900 lead. However, more than half of Bossier Parish (an extremely conservative area in which Fleming is demolishing Carmouche by 1,600 votes already) has yet to report. Carmouche should be helped by 20 counties that are left in Caddo County but the margin is almost sure to narrow considerably. In LA-02, Jefferson has cut his deficit by half - but he still trails by 10% with more than half of the vote in! Keep in mind that we do not know which parts of New Orleans have reported and Jefferson could gain rapidly if the most heavily African-American precincts have yet to report.

10:20pm: Incredible numbers are pouring in from LA-02, a very Democratic district with a 50% African-American electorate: Rep. Jefferson is trailing by 20% with a fourth of the vote in! Even though the Republican parish is more than half-reporting (while the New Orleans parish is only at 20%), we might be in for a wild ride here.

In LA-04, meanwhile, things are looking better for Carmouche, who is now leading by 2% (1,100 votes) with 70% of the vote reporting. Half of the remaining precincts are located in heavily Democratic Caddo County.

10pm: With exactly 50% of the vote reporting in LA-04, Fleming leads by 400 votes - but the Republican parishes have been tallied more than Democratic parishes (there is a lot of Caddo County left). In LA-02, votes are starting to come in - and have the Republican nominee crushing Jefferson. It would be a huge upset for a GOPer to win New Orleans, but it is not entirely impossible.

9:40pm: Democrat Paul Carmouche has grabbed a 2% lead with 16% of precincts reporting. The good news for Carmouche is that Coddo County (the only county Obama won in the district) has barely started reporting. There are no results from LA-02 for now, where Rep. Jefferson is expected to survive despite his indictment.

Original post: Polls have now closed in LA-02 and LA-04, the last two elections of the 2008 cycle! The latter race attracted the most attention, of course, as Democrats are trying to add one more pick-up to their already impressive roster. With only 18 precincts reporting (out of 640), Republican nominee John Fleming has a  narrow 50% to 48% lead - but these are obviously very early results.

High stakes in LA-04

Published
by
Taniel
on December 3, 2008
in LA-04
. 0 Comments

The GOP finally found reason to gloat last night, but Georgia’s runoff was not the final act of the 2008 campaign. On Saturday, voters in two Louisiana districts will go the polls to elect their next representatives and while Republicans have virtually no chance in heavily Democratic LA-02, LA-04 is looking highly competitive - and its results will hold great symbolic virtue.

Democrats have long held hope that Paul Carmouche is the ideal candidate to snatch the seat away from Republican hands. That Carmouche will face a relative lightweight (physician John Fleming) only increases Democratic optimism. Yet, LA-04 is a heavily conservative district, so Carmouche would have to replicate the spring exploits of Democratic special election candidates in OH-14, MS-01 and LA-06.

Democrats won those three contests because of a significant turnout gap that got turned upside down in yesterday’s Georgia runoff. If Saturday’s turnout patterns (especially among African-Americans) are anything like Georgia’s, it is difficult to see how Carmouche could prevail.

If Fleming prevails, the GOP will finish the year on a double victory that might reassure Republicans that the worst is over and that voters don’t feel the need to punish them further. A win in LA-04, indeed, will be much more meaningful than Chambliss’s triumph in suggesting that Obama’s victory has changed the political environment and that conservative-leaning voters are returning to the GOP’s fold now that the party has lost control of the White House. This could spell trouble for Democrats newly-elected in conservative districts.

If Carmouche prevails, it will serve as a warning to the GOP that their nightmare is not yet over and that Obama’s electoral coalition is looking to stick with Democrats. It would also dissipate Republican hopes that Chambliss’s victory indicates that the pendulum has already swung back and signal to marginal House Democrats that they have more than a fighting chance in 2010.

Given the election’s high stakes, it is not surprising that the NRCC is dialing up the volume of its attacks. For weeks, Republicans have attacked District Attorney Carmouche for being soft on crime by using stories of a few cases he has dealt with against him. The NRCC’s latest ad features graphic images of a drunk-driving accident to suggest that Carmouche is responsible for a hit-and-run accident:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pTheQo_-YA"]

The DCCC, meanwhile, is engaged in a brutal campaign of its own, attacking Fleming as a millionaire who is seeking personal profit in office:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7LcpfPhs5w"]

In an echo of Norm Coleman’s attacks against Al Franken, the DCCC is also attacking Fleming for tax delinquency - a charge they link to his support for a 23% sales tax:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyCgxdvA7JM"]

Just as in Georgia, Barack Obama has jumped in the fray by recording radio ads for Carmouche, calling on LA-04 voters to send the Democrat to Washington to help him “change America and bring Louisiana’s economy back on track.”

December elections: LA-04 polls find contrasting results, Af-Am turnout declines in GA

Published
by
Taniel
on November 20, 2008
in GA-Sen and LA-04
. 0 Comments

Georgia’s runoff might be attracting most of the attention, but the vote in LA-04 will come just a few days after and will be decided by similar factors: Do voters think that the GOP has been punished enough? Which party’s base will turnout the most? The uncertainty about who will show up to the polls in these December elections might be responsible for polling divergences in Louisiana, as three surveys of the December 6th vote were released today:

  • SUSA finds Republican candidate John Fleming leading 47% to 45% after pegging African-American turnout at 27%. SUSA estimates that the margin could range from a Fleming lead of 5% to a Carmouche advantage of 1% depending on the size of African-American turnout.
  • An internal Democratic poll conducted by the Kitchens Group finds Paul Carmouche leading 48% to 47%, a 1% improvement from a poll released two weeks ago.

Somewhat puzzlingly, the GOP’s internal poll estimates that 30% of voters will be African-American, while Carmouche’s poll pegs that number at only 22%. While it is understandable that both candidates want to show that they could win under conditions optimal for their opponent, it makes these numbers largely nonsensical. It is hard to conceive of Carmouche leading by 11% if African-Americans only make up 22% of the electorate, for instance.

Meanwhile, with three days of early voting now completed in Georgia, the first concrete turnout numbers we have continue to be worrisome for Democrats. Less than 23% of the nearly 64,000 early voters are African-American, far less than the 29% they represent in the electorate at large and the 35% they made up in the general election’s early voting. To make matters worse, the share of the black vote has gone down over the past day (it stood at 24% yesterday), suggesting that this is not caused by a one day aberration. Jim Martin will have to find a way to motivate his base in the coming weeks.

Yesterday’s rally with Bill Clinton could help achieve that, as the former President called on (Democratic) voters to stand by Barack Obama and send Martin to help him. “We don’t need a firewall, we need a bridge. Martin’s the bridge, Chambliss is the firewall,” he said. “Two weeks ago, you voted for the bridge. Don’t let Georgia put a firewall in front of the bridge.” Another potential boost to Democratic turnout will be supplied by the AFL-CIO, which is sending organizers and investing money. The union is preparing to unleash 10,000 volunteers to canvass for Martin; it is also sending out mailers and distributing fliers.

Hoping to prevent further losses, NRSC and NRCC attack Martin and Carmouche

Published
by
Taniel
on November 12, 2008
in GA-Sen and LA-04
. 1 Comment

Where have all the Democrats gone? Georgia Senate runoff was launched more than a week ago, and Republicans are proving to be surprisingly more committed - quite a reversal from this cycle’s usual pattern of Democratic aggression.

Not only is John McCain set to campaign for Saxby Chambliss John McCain prepares to stump for Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss, but the NRSC is first out of the gates with an ad blasting former state Senator Jim Martin. There is nothing surprising about the ad’s message, which recycles an argument the GOP turned to at the end of October - warning against undivided Democratic control:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPOK02wnkfs']

“With unchecked power hanging in the balance,” the announcer says, “Georgia cannot afford another liberal.” This warning is sure to be more powerful than it was in the run-up to November 4th, since voters now know that Barack Obama has won the White House and that Democrats expanded their majority in both chambers of Congress. Republicans are betting that voters will feel that the GOP has been punished enough and that they will move on from their anger towards President Bush now that Obama is attracting so much attention.

What is interesting about the NRSC’s ad, however, is that they do not use Obama’s image when referring to “unchecked power.” Instead, the spot only features congressional Democrats - Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi. On the one hand, this is rather puzzling since Obama’s election is what makes the GOP’s warning relevant; on the other hand, Chambliss’s best hope of survival is for a significant drop in African-American turnout, and nationalizing the election could ensure that black voters show up at the polls on December 2nd.

Just as fascinating are Jim Martin’s efforts to tie himself to Obama, as he has made his promise to work with the president-elect rather than fight him a centerpiece of his runoff campaign. Remember that this is Georgia we are talking about, a state whose 2004 open seat Democrats made no effort to contest and a state in which a Democrat would normally be expected to run away from his national party. Martin’s strategy is thus further evidence that the runoff will be determined by whichever party turns out its base - and what better way for Martin to motivate Democratic voters than to remind them of their November 4th victory?

In Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, meanwhile, the December 6th general election is heating up. Democratic nominee Paul Carmouche released an internal poll two days ago showing him in the lead 45% to 35%, a sure sign that Democrats have a chance to score yet another pick-up in this conservative district. But the NRCC has now jumped in the race, following the DCCC’s lead (I already blogged about the DCCC’s ad against John Fleming here).

The NRCC’s spot seeks to turn Carmouche’s background as a district attorney against him by using the case of John Pillinsky, a detainee that was released early before committing more crimes as evidence that Carmouche is “soft on crime” because he “failed to prosecute” Pillinsky:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxFWaaHRJHU"]

This is the sort of ad that has the potential to be brutally effective (as it was against Michael Dukakis) or of backfiring (Gordon Smith’s rape ads did him no good). The fact that Carmouche does have some direct connection to the Pillinsky case (unlike, say, Jeff Merkley and the convicted rapist of Smith’s ads) certainly increases the ad’s effectiveness, and we will see whether Carmouche or the DCCC feel that the ad is threatening enough to be worth responding to.

December runoffs are right around the corner

Published
by
Taniel
on November 10, 2008
in GA-Sen and LA-04
. 0 Comments

There’s no rest for the weary when it comes to American elections. Not even a week has passed since Barack Obama’s election and stories are already piling up about 2012 - and not all of it should be dismissed as the empty speculation of bored journalists. Prominent Republicans like Bobby Jindal will have traveled to Iowa before this year is over, and the current battle over Sarah Palin’s image will have important repercussions three years from now.

But a lot of elections will have to be taken care first, starting with two coming up in December: the runoff in Georgia’s Senate race, which will be held on December 2nd, and the general election in Louisiana’s fourth congressional district, which will be held on December 6th.

In Georgia, Senator Saxby Chambliss and Democratic nominee Jim Martin started campaigning as soon as it became clear that the race would go in overtime, as did national parties. Coming a few weeks after the presidential election, this runoff is a high-stakes battle with national implications, as Democrats want to expand their congressional majority while Republicans are hoping to get some immediate revenge.

In 1992, a Republican challenger defeated a Democratic incumbent in a Georgia runoff a month after Bill Clinton’s election, allowing the GOP to crow that Clinton’s honeymoon was already over. The situation is different this year, of course, since the incumbent is a Republican and a Democratic loss would not carry the same shock value. Yet, the potential for the Chambliss-Martin race to become a rematch of the Obama-McCain battle might lead the President Elect to keep his distance, not wanting to be waste his political capital before even being inaugurated.

This is not preventing Jim Martin from using Obama’s appeal in his first runoff ad, in which he asks Georgia to send him to the Senate to help the new President - even using footage from his victory speech:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h8TGFLVOiIE"]

Who would have thought a year ago that a local Democratic candidate in Georgia would tout his ties to his party’s presidential candidates rather than hide from them? This could be an even riskier strategy now that Obama has been elected, as the GOP’s main argument will surely be that voters should reelect Chambliss to guarantee some checks on the Democrats’ powers.

That said, Martin might have no other choice: Runoffs or special elections are generally low-turnout affairs. Whichever camp stays the most mobilized will come out on top, and this could cut both ways: Republicans are likely to be demoralized, and the turnout gap that we observed in the spring general elections would be fatal to Chambliss if it holds on December 2nd. On the other hand, African-American turnout is likely to decrease, costing Martin crucial votes. Touting Obama’s victory is a way for Martin to keep Democrats in general and black voters in particular energized.

Even if Barack Obama stays away from Georgia, this race is already drawing national attention - particularly on the GOP side. Not only will both John McCain and Sarah Palin stump for Chambliss, but outside groups are now rushing in. Here is, for instance, an attack produced by Freedom’s Watch:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRi_HNMqAxI"]

In Louisiana, meanwhile, all eyes are on the fourth district, where Hurricane Gustav forced a delay of the primary until November 4th and a delay of the general election until December 6th. This is a conservative open seat that gave bush 59% of the vote in 2004 (the district breakdown for 2008 is not yet available), but Democratic nominee Paul Carmouche has long been celebrated by the DCCC as one of its top recruits. The longtime district attorney of one of the district’s 12 parishes, Carmouche will face physician John Fleming, a political novice who won a heated primary.

Here again, the most important factor in determining the result will be turnout, as it is impossible to predict which party’s base will remain the most energized over the next few weeks. Just as in Georgia, Freedom’s Watch will help the Republican nominee while the DCCC has already gone on air blasting Fleming for supporting social security privatization and a 23% sales tax:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhgvY7_eNmE"]

Both races will be held on conservative territory and are tough seats for Democrats to pick-up. But for them to win either contest would give them bragging rights heading into the holiday season - just as in 2006, when Democrat Ciro Rodriguez unexpectedly prevailed in TX-23 in a December election.

Wednesday polls: Obama ahead in 3 national polls, Sens. Smith and Lautenberg open big leads

Published
by
Taniel
on August 6, 2008
in FL-Pres, IL-06, LA-04, NJ-Sen, Nat-Poll, OH-15, OR-Sen, WA-Gov and WA-Pres
. 9 Comments

The presidential campaigns were engaged in such a furious ad war yesterday that my day was taken up monitoring the newest ads they were releasing - and it’s been 2 days since my last polling roundup. So here we go. Not many polls were released in the interval, and here are the five six presidential polls of the past two days, including 3 national polls finding the same margin for Obama (5-6%):

  • [Update: CBS News just released its national poll, finding Obama leading 45% to 39% - the same margin as last month. Voters name the economy as their top issue, 2:1 over Iraq. Obama's supporters are "three times more likely to be enthusiastic" than McCain's - something that could have a key impact on the election. CBS also talked to the undecided voters from its July polls and found that they were still undecided and that they were now less interested in the campaign.]
  • The AP-Ipsos national poll, released yesterday, finds Obama ahead 47% to 41%.
  • The Time national poll, released today, has Obama ahead 46% to 41% - the same margin as late June. The problem for McCain: Bush’s approval rating is at 29%, and McCain only gets 20% among those who disapprove of the president. The problem for Obama: Voters trust his opponent more on the issues. Obama has a 4% advantage on the economy; McCain has a 15% advantage on Iraq and 27% on terrorism. Another key difference: Obama’s supporters are much more enthusiastic, just like in the CBS poll.
  • In Florida (polling history), PPP finds a 5% swing towards McCain, who is now narrowly ahead 47% to 44%.
  • In New Jersey (polling history), Rasmussen finds Obama expanding his lead from 5% to a 48% to 40% margin (52% to 42% when leaners are included).

None of these polls find surprising results. At the national level, there have been two national polls (Gallup and Zogby) as well as two days of Rasmussen tracking to find McCain narrowly ahead, but most surveys still find a narrow Obama lead, somewhere in the low-to-mid single digits. The latest tracking polls (+1 Obama in Rasmussen, +2 Obama in Gallup) confirm that the race has been remarkably stable since the beginning of June.

One state in which numbers have moved, however, is Florida. This is the third straight poll to find a small trendline in favor of McCain (after Quinnipiac and SUSA) but McCain’s lead is within the margin of error and the only thing we should remember at this point of the campaign is that Florida is perhaps the only state in which the two candidates keep exchanging the lead with remarkable regularity. Since June 18th (when Obama was ahead in his first FL poll), Obama and McCain have each led in 6 state surveys. Compare that to other states where the margins are often within the MoE but where a candidate generally comes ahead, whether New Mexico and New Hampshire (all Obama leads, albeit narrow ones), Ohio (McCain has only been ahead in Rasmussen, twice), Missouri (Obama has only been ahead in Research 2000) and Colorado (McCain has only been ahead in Quinnipiac, once).

On to down-the-ballot surveys:

  • In Oregon’s Senate race, SUSA finds a big lead for Senator Gordon Smith - 49% to 37%. The big problem for Jeff Merkley is that 28% of Democrats are crossing-over to vote for the Republican incumbent.
  • In the Washington gubernatorial race, Elway shows Christine Gregoire with her first substantial lead: 52% to 36% - up 8%.
  • In the New Jersey Senate race, Rasmussen finds Lautenberg building on his lead, now ahead 51% to 33% against Frank Zimmer. Lautenberg’s favorability rating isn’t great (48% to 45%), but this is New Jersey and his opponent’s isn’t much better (37% to 41%).
  • In OH-15, the two candidates are locked in a toss-up in a SUSA poll. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy gets 47% to 44% for Steve Stivers.
  • In IL-06, an internal poll for Rep. Roskam shows the GOP incumbent crushing his opponent, Jill Morgenthaler, 59% to 29%. In a district Bush carried by 6% in 2004, Obama is ahead 49% to 41%.
  • In LA-04, an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche - the DA of the county in which the district is located - finds him ahead by double-digit against all 3 of his potential competitors.

The last Oregon poll to be released was a mid-July Rasmussen survey that gave Merkley his first lead of the campaign. The SUSA poll is worrisome for Democrats, however, because its internal polls correspond to their greatest fear that Gordon Smith’s last few ads touting his bipartisan credentials and his ties with John Kerry and Barack Obama might be working at offsetting the year’s Democratic lean. Smith has much more cash-on-hand than his Democratic opponent, and the DSCC might have to up its investment to help Merkley get more than 68% of his party’s vote.

A few notes on the House races, starting with IL-06 which was one of the most expensive races in 2006 (Roskam won by 2%) but which looks like it will be much less competitive this time around. This is an internal poll, and Roskam’s margin might be overstated, but the incumbent’s large lead is not a surprise. LA-04, however, is a conservative district (Bush got 59% of the vote), but Democrats have been upbeat about their chances to pick up this district following Cazayoux’s win in more Republican LA-06 and MS-01. Carmouche’s advantage in early polls may be amplified by his good name recognition, and we will need to see independent surveys. At the very least it seems clear that the GOP ought to worry about this seat.

Finally, OH-15 was supposed to be one of the Democrats’ strongest pick-up opportunities when the Republican incumbent announced she was retiring last year. Kilroy came close in 2006 and she seemed to be favored in her second attempt. But the GOP is as happy with state Senator Stivers as with any of its candidates this cycle and they point out that Kilroy isn’t the strongest candidate. She was favored to win in 2006 and her loss was a surprise, and Republicans are getting hopeful that they can snatch victory once again. SUSA’s poll suggest the race is closer than we would have expected it to be a few months ago.

DCCC reserves time in 20 new districts, drawing an increasingly clear House map

Published
by
Taniel
on July 22, 2008
in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-08, CA-04, CA-11, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, KY-03, LA-04, MO-06, MS-01, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26 and WA-08
. 2 Comments

Two weeks ago, I marveled at the DCCC’s announcement that it was reserving more than $30 million of air time in more than 30 House races. Yesterday, I described the DSCC’s investments in the Maine Senate race and noted the Democrats’ huge fundraising advantage. Within hours came the news that the DCCC had reserved an additional $18 million in 20 new districts, for a total of $53 million of air time reserved in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP.

Remember, this is not actually a buy on the DCCC’s buy - only a reservation - and the committee can very well renounce airing any ads, but the depth of this list is a testament to the depth of the House playing field. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved is within the committee’s $58 million of cash on hand at the end of June. In other words, if they give up spending plans in some of these districts (as they probably will in NY-13, for instance, since Democrats seem much safer in that GOP-held district than many of the party’s incumbents), it will not be because of financial constraints but because the race no longer seems competitive.

What is interesting about this round of buys (the full list is available here) is that it contains both districts that remain long shots for Democrats and where the DCCC is interested in expanding the map, and districts that are relatively safe for the Democratic candidate:

  • In the first category are $1.4 million in FL-18, FL-21 and FL-25, all part of the same Miami market. The three districts are held by well-established Republican incumbents, but Democrats are mounting a strong offensive, particularly in the 21st and 25th districts.
  • Also in the first category are a combined $1 million in AL-02 and ID-01, two extremely conservative districts that Democrats are hoping to wrestle away. The former is an open seat, the latter is competitive because of the incumbent’s controversial nature. Both districts have relatively cheap media markets, meaning that the ads will be seen often for the amount of money that is being spent. And while CA-04 are LA-04 less dramatically conservative, they are still clearly Republican districts and they would not be competitive in a neutral year.
  • Next, the DCCC is eyeing a number of districts that are considered to be leaning Democratic, including Dem-held seats in AZ-08 and more than $1 million in IL-14, and even some GOP-held open seats like IL-11 (a reservation of $1.6 million) and NY-25. It’s a safe bet that some if not all of these reservations will be canceled in the coming months as there is little chance that the GOP will force a seat like IL-14 (or even NY-13 and VA-11, which were in the previous target list) to be competitive.
  • Finally, there are the obvious targets, those that everyone expects to be very competitive and that were just overlooked in the previous DCCC reservations. Those include the GOP held MO-06, NJ-03, NY-26, NY-29, IL-10 and WA-08 and, AL-05, MS-01 and CA-11, where Democratic seats are endangered (the DCCC has reserved a lot of time for a modest amount of money in Alabama’s seat).
  • The 3 upstate New York seats deserve a particular attention because of how much money the DCCC has reserved ($2.7M for all three in the same media market) and the amount of advertising that allows in this relatively less expensive market. If the DCCC no longer wants to spend that money on NY-25, which is among the top 2-3 likely pick-ups for Democrats, the party’s candidates in NY-26 and NY-29 will be very lucky. Another interesting reservation in NJ-03, an expensive district to run ads in and where the DCCC seems willing to spend $1.7 million (which buys a third as many ads with three times as much money than in, say, AL-02)!

Of course, the buys in some of these districts are relatively small and unlikely to cost Republicans the race by themselves. But most of these districts host races that the NRCC and its meager $8 million of cash on hand will be completely unable to defend. Republican incumbents in these red-leaning districts are completely on their own and they might find themselves swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, whatever the DCCC spends of these $53 million of reserved buys can be consider experimental expenses to test the grounds and see how vulnerable incumbents like Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18 are.

If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it will still have more than $30 million to spend on some of these races - and much more in the likely scenario that it cancels its reservation on some of the safer seats of the list (NY-13, IL-14).

Given how positive the environment is for Democrats and how much of a money advantage they have, it would be political malpractice for them to not expand the map as much as possible. But for them to signal their willingness - and financial capability - to contest in 34 GOP-held districts while defending 17 vulnerable seats is a remarkable feat. And you can be sure that there are seats beyond these 34 GOP-held districts that Republicans should worry about.

In related House news, SUSA’s latest survey from KY-03 gives the advantage to the incumbent Democrat:

  • Rep. Yarmuth leads former Rep. Anne Northup 53% to 43%. He led by 17% in the previous SUSA poll, so this is an improvement for Northup.

Northup is a strong contender who served in this district for a long time until her surprise defeat in 2006. She is the best challenger the GOP could hope for in this district, but she is unable to push Yarmuth under the 50% threshold. An internal poll her campaign released last month also had the incumbent above 50%, so the race remains competitive but the advantage belongs to the Democrat.