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Category Archive for ‘LA-02’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'LA-02' Category


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House: LA-02 firewall helps Dems respond to NRCC offense

Second-tier target could rise if conditions deteriorate for Dems

In its continued effort to target incumbents who have long looked safe, the NRCC is trying to add a new seat to their list: MO-04, a staunchly conservative seat that gave McCain 61% of the vote last fall but is represented by a 77-year old Democrat, Ike Skelton.

Skelton is now serving his 17th term and he has topped 60% in all but one of his reelection races. While that suggests the GOP will have a very tough time against him, entrenched congressmen who have forgotten how to run a competitive campaign often make appetizing targets. The NRCC ran radio ads targeting Skelton earlier this year; could they get more traction now that they have landed a credible candidate in the form of Vicky Hartzler?

A former state Rep., Hartzler left the state legislature in 2000, but she remained active in public life even after leaving the state legislature in 2000: She helped lead the state campaign to ban same-sex marriage in 2004 and she published a book called Running God’s Way in 2007. While this does not give her the most formidable of political profiles, it should prove enough for her to attract the support of social conservatives and test Skelton’s vulnerability.

After all, it’s been a while the district’s voters have not had to asked themselves whether they want to vote for a Republican at the congressional level, just as they do in presidential elections. What better time for the GOP to ask that than the midterm election of a Democratic president? In a neutral political environment, Skelton should have little to fear. But if Republicans benefit from favorable political winds, second-tier candidates like Hartzler could be all the NRCC needs to stun longtime Democratic incumbents.

In New Orleans, Cao calls himself a goner

Whatever the political winds in 2010, Democrats are virtually certain to avoid the GOP’s humiliation in 2006, when the party failed to pick-up a single seat: Not only did LA-02 recently become the cycle’s first “lean takeover” seat, but Rep. Cao himself is now acknowledging that he is unlikely to survive the 2010 cycle. “I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career,” Cao said last week after opposing the reform in the Energy and Commerce Committee. “But I have to live with myself,” he added.

This is not the first high-profile vote in which Cao has stayed with Republicans: He also opposed the stimulus and the cap-and-trade bills. In short, he has sided with Republicans on all the priorities of Obama’s presidency. For Cao to survive in such an overwhelmingly Democratic district, he needs voters to think of him as a quasi-Democrat whose party affiliation is only betrayed by his Speaker vote. Yet, he is absolutely not getting there and every single one of those votes is helping seal his fate.

Frankly, Cao might have decided that his re-election prospects are so low that it’s not even worth bothering to take politically prudent votes. Unless another extraordinary set of circumstances unexpectedly occur - for instance Democrats nominating another indicted politician, there’s really little Cao can do that could save his political career.

Bizarrely un-dueling internal polls in FL-08

We have known for months that FL-08 would host one of the hottest races of the cycle: Rep. Allen Grayson has proved to be an outspoken progressive - and Republicans have made dislodging him a top priority. The NRCC generally considers Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty as the top candidate it could field against Grayson, which is what makes the recent releases of springtime surveys particularly interesting.

First, the NRCC leaked an internal poll showing Grayson leading Crotty 37% to 34%, an uncomfortable margin for any incumbent. Yet, the survey also tested potential Crotty negatives, for instance a shady land deal he got from a developer in 2002; The Orlando Sentinel reports the results were not good. Then, the Grayson camp countered with an (April) poll of its own that shows the incumbent leading 46% to 40%.

What I am unclear about is why they would think of this as a response: Campaigns typically respond with an internal poll when it shows a substantially better result. Yet, there is no meaningful difference between a 3% lead and a 6% lead - especially since Grayson is under 50% threshold in both polls. In short, both parties have released polling showing that Grayson is vulnerable (though no more than is expected) and that FL-08 is likely to host a competitive race come 2010.


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House Democrats get some good news

I remain far from able to return to politics, but I do miss daily writing; some posting should help me pass time and relieve stress at this point - so expect some write-ups over the next few days but forgive me if posts remains infrequent and irregular. On an unrelated note, you can subscribe to my RSS feed if you have yet to do so.

Over the past few months, the midterm picture has been rapidly deteriorating for Democrats. Yet, at the micro level, the House picture remains more than satisfying for the DCCC: Not only are they not giving the GOP unnecessary openings in vulnerable districts,  but they are also doing what they need to takeover the GOP’s most vulnerable seats. The past week brought more examples of this: Democrats are making the most of their opportunity in LA-02 and PA-15 and they avoided a tough open seat in NC-07.

In New Orleans, Cao lands first challenger

In my House ratings, the assessment most of you disagreed with concerned LA-02 - the heavily Democratic New Orleans-based district represented by Republican Rep. Joseph Cao. While many of you insisted the race should be “lean takeover,” I rated it as a toss-up, arguing it would be too bizarre to put it in any other category before a single Democratic challenger even emerges. Well, Cao now has a challenger: state Rep. Juan LaFonta just announced his candidacy.

Given that Obama won 74% of the district’s vote last fall, a generic (i.e. non-indicted) Democrat will be favored to pick-up the district. Even though LaFonta is unlikely to end up as the nominee (Democrats will probably select an African-American), his entrance guarantees that Cao will face a highly credible opponent - which leaves him as the clear underdog. LA-02 thus becomes the first “lean takeover” race of the 2010 cycle.

Another reason why LaFonta’s announcement is a clear setback for Cao is that the state legislator was considering running as an independent in order to bypass the Democratic nomination. Cao needs yet another perfect storm of extraordinary circumstances to survive until the 2010 redistricting and such 3-way general election could have been one of the needed ingredients.

PA-15: The 6th Kerry district will be contested

The DCCC has been talking to Bethleem Mayor John Callahan for years, but the Democrat has repeatedly refused to take on Rep. Charlie Dent - until this week, that is. After all but closing the door to a run earlier this year, Callahan changed his mind and announced his candidacy in Pennsylvania’s 15th District.

This is a huge victory for Democrats, as it ensures that they will contest all six districts that Kerry won in 2006 but that are still represented by a Republican: LA-02, DE-AL, IL-10, PA-06 and WA-08 were already sure to be host competitive races, leaving PA-15 as the only seat Democrats weren’t able to put on the map. Callahan’s candidacy changes that: Not only do Mayors usually make good candidates because they have a more direct connection to voters than other politicians, but Bethlehem is a sizable enough city (its population is above 70,000) that Callahan would have the benefit of a strong geographical base.

While Dent easily won re-election in tough climates in 2006 and 2008, he did not face much competition. We’ll have to see how he holds up under pressure before settling on an a new rating, but PA-15 is now far closer to a “toss-up” than to the “likely retention” it received in my latest House ratings.

McIntyre will not vacate his House seat

One of the most conservative House Democrats, Rep. Mike McIntyre represents a red-leaning district: McCain prevailed by 5% last fall, George W. Bush by 12% in 2004. An open seat would have been very difficult for his party to defend, which is why the DCCC is breathing a huge sigh of relief now that McIntyre announced he would not leave his House seat to run for Senate. With McIntyre in the race, Republicans are highly unlikely to bother fielding a credible nominee and NC-07 will probably not work its way on our 2010 radar screen.

As for the Senate race, I don’t think Democrats have much too lament. It is true that they have proven unable to find a top-tier challenger for Senator Richard Burr and that McIntyre had expressed his interest in the race. Yet, McIntyre’s politics would place him much closer to überconservatives Ben Nelson and Blanche Lincoln than to North Carolina’s Kay Hagan; in other words, Democrats certainly don’t need to go as far to the right as McIntyre to compete in this state.

Second, other high-profile Democrats remain to take on Burr - albeit their numbers are dwindling. In particular, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Rep. Bob Etheridge have yet to rule out the race. Both would make strong contenders. My sense is that Marshall would like to run but that she does not want to go through another grueling primary eight years after her disastrous 2002 bid (she came in third behind Erskine Bowles and Dan Blue). With Cooper, Shuler and McIntyre’s exit, might it not be easier for the DSCC to convince Marshall to run?

It’s at least worth paying attention to FL-16

Last, and probably least, Democrats might be able to put on the map a district we thought wouldn’t be a center of attention now that it’s back in Republican hands: The stage of sex scandals in both the 2006 and 2008 cycles, FL-16 leans red (McCain won a 5% victory). Touted as a formidable candidate as soon as he was recruited, Rooney only received a boost from the Mahoney scandal and he now looks favored to win a second term. Yet, it looks like Democrats will be able to test his vulnerability: St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft announced that he was “leaning towards” running. If he pulls the trigger, FL-16 could well be worth following.


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NRCC might not have shot at CA-32 but it is organizing elsewhere

Last night, Judy Chu won the Democratic nomination in the special election to replace Hilda Solis in California’s 32nd District. The vie-chairwoman of the state’s Board of Equalization edged out state senator Gil Cedillo by 9%. There were few ideological differences, with the contest largely focusing on the candidates’ experiences and racial background. (The race took a turn to the brutal last week when Cedillo launched an unjustifiably nasty attack against a third candidate, a 26-year old political novice who was threatening to cut into the state Senator’s hold on the Hispanic vote.)

Just as Mike Quigley in IL-05 earlier this year, Chu is now the overwhelming favorite to win the general election, which will take place on July 14th. CA-32 gave Barack Obama 68% of the vote and there will be no surprise in two months.

But many other House races are just starting to heat up and we haven’t been the only ones keeping track: Nearly a month after I published my analysis of 62 vulnerable GOP-held House seats, the NRCC finally unveiled the first 10 members of its Patriot Program, which regroups the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. (This is the equivalent of the DCCC’s Frontline Program, which Democrats created long ago and which worked very well in the 2008 cycle.)

In exchange with receiving special care and being helped with additional money and fundraisers, incumbents on the Patriot Program will be accountable to NRCC officials. They will have to meet fundraising guidelines, show that they are taking their re-election races seriously and demonstrate that they have a solid team in place. In short, the NRCC wants to avoid situations that arose in the final weeks of the 2006 and 2008 cycles, when the committee had to make tough choices because of some incumbents’ unpreparedness. This time, the NRCC is warning, raise funds early and show your serious or you won’t get any help down the line.

(Of course, the NRCC can always break its word in the fall of 2010, if it realizes that a few thousands spent helping an incumbent who has flunked out of the Patriot Program could save the GOP a seat. On the other hand, it’s not like the committee can afford to do that too often if it wants this program to be credible in future cycles.)

Given the circumstances of the program’s creation, incumbents who are added early are not necessarily those who are the most vulnerable. They can also be representatives who have not faced a competitive race for many cycles and whose campaign and fundraising skills might need some dusting off by the NRCC. A look at the list confirms this:

Incumbent Obama’s score Rating Notes
Judy Biggert (IL-13) 54% N/A Held to 10% win in ‘08
Brian Bilbray (CA-50) 51% Likely R Unexpectedly narrow ‘08 victory
Ken Calvert (CA-44) 50% Likely R Unexpectedly narrow ‘08 victory
Anh Cao (LA-02) 74% Toss-up Freshman
Thad McCotter (MI-11) 54% Lean R Hostile territory, no opponent
Dan Lungren (CA-03) 49% Lean R Unexpectedly narrow ‘08 victory
Leonard Lance (NJ-07) 51% Lean R Freshman
Chris Lee (NY-26) 46% Likely R Freshman
Erik Paulsen (MN-03) 52% Lean R Freshman
Dave Reichert (WA-08) 57% Toss-up Narrow victories in ‘06 and ‘08

While these do not represent the most vulnerable Republican seats, I am only (slightly) surprised by the inclusion of Chris Lee, who represents a red-leaning district and scored a solid victory in a very hostile environment last year. Even though Judy Biggert was not included in my House ratings, the GOP understandably wants to make sure she entrenches herself better after she was held to 54% by an underfunded and little-noticed challenger.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 6 races I identified as toss-ups are included on the list. This is not because the NRCC does not fear losing DE-AL, IL-10 and PA-06 but because the incumbents in each of these races are mulling leaving their seats for a Senate or gubernatorial run. Since the whole point of this program is to set strict fundraising goals and clear benchmarks, it makes no sense for Castle, Kirk and Gerlach to sign up before making up their minds. If they choose to stay in the House, there is virtually no doubt that they will be integrated in the program.

Of course, the NRCC is not just thinking about defense and it just got some recruitment news out of a Dem-held seat, WI-08: This is a swing district that gave Bush 55% in 2004 and Obama 54% in 2008. Rep. Steve Kagen is undoubtedly vulnerable, but the GOP will not get far if it does not recruit a top challenger. Until this week, the only candidate was Mike Savard, a member of the Door County Board of Supervisors; he will now face primary competition from a Republican who has a similar profile: Brown County Supervisor Andy Williams who was only elected in 2007 and who identified taxes as the focus of his campaign.

At the very least, this will allow Republican voters to try to figure out whether one of these two candidates has what it takes to unseat Kagen - but at first glance the Democrat still looks like he is in a good position as neither Savard nor Williams have the same stature as his opponent in the 2006 and 2008 races, former Speaker of the Wisconsin Assembly John Gard.


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Assessing Louisiana’s results

While all eyes were on Louisiana’s Northwestern corridor, New Orleans sent a Republican - Anh Joseph Cao - to the House.

Let’s once again set the context of what is the biggest upset of the 2008 cycle. Yes, Rep. William Jefferson is indicted on corruption charges and has been stripped of his committee assignments - but LA-02 is a heavily African-American district that is more Democratic than any red district is Republican.

Simply put, such districts never ever elect a Republican and it is a sign of how damaged Jefferson had become that he lost his re-election race - even by only 3%. And even then, it took the special circumstances of an off-date election day (the general election had been postponed due to Hurricane Gustav) for Jefferson to actually go down: Turnout in white precincts was more than twice that of black precinct, sealing Jefferson’s doom.

Had the Jefferson-Cao match-up taken place on November 4th, there is little doubt that Jefferson would be heading to Washington. Nor, for that matter, would Cao have been able to defeat any other Democrat yesterday. What happened last night is entirely Democrats’ fault for not taking care of the Jefferson problem on their own - either by ostracizing him to such an extent as to render him unelectable or by organizing behind a single Democratic challenger to defeat him in the primary.

The good news for Democrats is that they are already heavily favored to reclaim the seat in 2010 - especially now that they are rid of Jefferson for good. It is almost inconceivable that Cao could win re-election.

This is why the Democrats’ apparent defeat in LA-04 is so much more painful. Paul Carmouche has not conceded the race yet (nor has the AP called it) and we could be heading to a recount, but John Fleming is hanging on to a 356 vote lead. If he emerges as the winner, he would be likely to keep the seat for as many years as he would like. This is the sort of heavily conservative seat (John McCain won LA-04 by 20%) that Democrats can only hope to pick-up as open seats, so this loss is a long-term one.

Coming just a few days after Saxby Chambliss’s triumph in Georgia’s Senate runoff, LA-04 allows the GOP to finish the year on a strong streak that will reassure Republicans that the worst is over and that voters no longer feel the need to punish them. If the Carmouche-Fleming match-up had occurred last spring (when Democrats picked-up LA-06, MS-01 and IL-14 in similar conditions), Carmouche might have been in a better position.

But yesterday’s results suggest that the Democratic base is no longer more enthused (since turnout for once favored Republicans) and that conservative-leaning independents that have been voting Democratic since 2006 might be returning to the GOP’s fold now that President Bush is on his way out.

This should serve as a warning sign to the Democratic incumbents elected in heavily Republican districts either this year or in 2008 - starting with ID-01, TX-17, KS-03, OH-18, … Unfortunately for Republicans, regaining those districts alone would not be enough to reclaim a majority in the House.


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Stunner: GOP saves LA-04, picks up LA-02

midnight: The margin in LA-02 did narrow - but not enough for Jefferson to take the lead. With all precincts reporting, Cao prevailed by 3% (about 2,000 votes). For an explanation as to how a Republican can beat a Democrat (even an indicted one) in a 50% African-American district, take a look at the drop in turnout in Orleans Parish: On November 4th, about 150,000 voters went to the polls. Today, that number fell to about 45,000!

A fuller analysis will wait until tomorrow, but this is clearly a great night for Republicans who save a highly endangered seat and pick up another one almost out of nowhere - holding the overall number of Democratic pick-ups to a net of 19 (with OH-15 and VA-05 still outstanding). It might also be a good night for the House Democratic leadership: They are finally rid of the Jefferson problem that has been giving them huge headaches for the past three years!

11:15pm: The AP calls New Orleans-based LA-02 for Republican Joseph Cao! This is an extremely heavy Democratic seat that virtually no one was paying attention to despite Jefferson’s indictement for corruption (it was assumed that Jefferson could only be defeated in the Democratic primaries). In fact, it is more Democratic than any red district is Republican. Beyond Jefferson’s indictment, an upset of this nature was only made possible by low turnout. 

11pmRepublicans saved LA-04 in a tight finish - though the race could be thrown into a recount since the margin is inferior to 0.5%. Bossier County’s final precincts allowed Fleming to take a stunning last-minute lead of only 356 votes - making this one of the tightest House races of the 2008 cycle and yet another heart-warming save for the GOP. Note that the AP has not yet called the race, so perhaps there is a reservoir of votes left somewhere (provisionals?), and we should postpone a final call if there is indeed the potential for a recount.

10:50pm: All parishes but Bossier have now finished reporting, accounting for 94% of the total vote, and Carmouche is ahead by 1,850 votes. If the remaining 37 precincts of Bossier comes like the 38 precincts that have already reported, Fleming should pick up about 1,750. Needless to say, this race remains too close to call.

10:35pm: With 90% of precincts reporting, Carmouche is holding on to a 1,900 lead. However, more than half of Bossier Parish (an extremely conservative area in which Fleming is demolishing Carmouche by 1,600 votes already) has yet to report. Carmouche should be helped by 20 counties that are left in Caddo County but the margin is almost sure to narrow considerably. In LA-02, Jefferson has cut his deficit by half - but he still trails by 10% with more than half of the vote in! Keep in mind that we do not know which parts of New Orleans have reported and Jefferson could gain rapidly if the most heavily African-American precincts have yet to report.

10:20pm: Incredible numbers are pouring in from LA-02, a very Democratic district with a 50% African-American electorate: Rep. Jefferson is trailing by 20% with a fourth of the vote in! Even though the Republican parish is more than half-reporting (while the New Orleans parish is only at 20%), we might be in for a wild ride here.

In LA-04, meanwhile, things are looking better for Carmouche, who is now leading by 2% (1,100 votes) with 70% of the vote reporting. Half of the remaining precincts are located in heavily Democratic Caddo County.

10pm: With exactly 50% of the vote reporting in LA-04, Fleming leads by 400 votes - but the Republican parishes have been tallied more than Democratic parishes (there is a lot of Caddo County left). In LA-02, votes are starting to come in - and have the Republican nominee crushing Jefferson. It would be a huge upset for a GOPer to win New Orleans, but it is not entirely impossible.

9:40pm: Democrat Paul Carmouche has grabbed a 2% lead with 16% of precincts reporting. The good news for Carmouche is that Coddo County (the only county Obama won in the district) has barely started reporting. There are no results from LA-02 for now, where Rep. Jefferson is expected to survive despite his indictment.

Original post: Polls have now closed in LA-02 and LA-04, the last two elections of the 2008 cycle! The latter race attracted the most attention, of course, as Democrats are trying to add one more pick-up to their already impressive roster. With only 18 precincts reporting (out of 640), Republican nominee John Fleming has a  narrow 50% to 48% lead - but these are obviously very early results.



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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

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    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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