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Category Archive for ‘KY-Sen’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'KY-Sen' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Grayson and Paul hammer each other for insufficient opposition to Obama’s “war on coal”

Primary season might be dawning upon us, but few campaigns have gotten heated on the airwaves as of now. For instance, I don’t believe that Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak have started using their huge war chests to go up on TV - and we are just ten weeks from Election Day.

One state in which local TV channels are starting to reap some benefits is Kentucky. While the GOP’s Senate primary was not expected to be particularly contested when the seat opened up, Trey Grayson and Rand Paul are now waging an all-out battle that spilled over to the airwaves this week. And while other candidates who’ve started airing ads have chosen to first go down the route of the positive introductory spot (see Sue Lowden in Nevada), Grayson and Paul are both gone negative at once.

The subject of their on-air dispute: coal. With both candidates having been caught on camera expressing some anti-coal sentiment, footage was bound to pop up on the campaign trail. (Coal is a major enough issue in Appalachia that West Virginia’s Democratic Governor Jon Manchin said this week that he is worried Allan Mollohan and Nick Rahall, longtime congressmen of his own party, could lose in November because “they have not articulated [their support for coal] as forceful as they should.” Talk about a vote of confidence for your party’s ticket.)

Grayson fired the first salvo with an ad that features comments Paul made in 2008 when on the stump supporting his father’s presidential candidacy. Before pledging to fight “Obama’s war on coal,” Grayson shows viewers footage of Paul declaring: “Coal’s very dirty form of energy. You may have coal around you that needs to be monitored. But I mean the thing is it’s probably one of the leat favorable forms of energy.”

That’s some damaging footage for Paul to deal with, so how can he possibly respond? What about an ad that features comments made by Grayson, not only about coal but also about a willingness to work with Barack Obama (gasp!). First, we see Grayson declare that, “As some of these coal power plants are being phased out, we need to bring nuclear on.” Then, the ad jumps to an unrelated video on which Grayson declares,”I look forward to doing my part as a Secretary of State and as a citizen of working with President Obama.” The ad concludes: “A friend of Obama? No friend of coal.”

From the perspective of coal defenders, Grayson’s comments are far less incriminating than Paul’s since he did not express any hostility towards that form of energy. Yet, his comment could very well be perceived as a fatalistic response to mining’s decline - certainly not the type of passionate defense of the coaling industry Kentuckians (and West Virginians like Manchin) are hoping to see.

Similarly, it is somewhat depressing that Grayson’s comments on Obama could be used against him in a campaign ad, as they are in no way remarkable - nor do they in any way seem like a warm embrace of the president or an endorsement of any of his policies (contra, say, Charlie Crist’s physically hugging Obama over the stimulus), but conservative voters have come to expect such frontal opposition that such footage could very well damage Grayson. After all, they fit well in Paul’s efforts to portray himself as the conservative who right-wing voters can trust because he is an outsider and an activist, while Grayson is part of the GOP establishment that Tea Partiers feel is too cozy with the Democratic elites.

Another remarkable aspect of this Grayson-Paul back-and-forth is the speed with which the latter’s campaign unveiled a response; who could have expected when he declared his candidacy that he would have the financial capacity to pull off such a solid campaign? In any case, If Grayson was hoping that Paul’s strength would dissipate as we got further away from the 2008 cycle, during which Ron Paul’s supporters were an organizational sensation, this past week-end must have forced him to realize it would not be the case: At the yearly CPAC conference, Ron Paul for the first time won the presidential straw poll, breaking Mitt Romney’s 3-year winning streak. This obviously does not mean much insofar as a 2012 bid is concerned, nor does it provide direct help for Rand Paul’s Senate campaign, but it simply serves as one more reminder that the libertarian groups that have allowed the family to become such formidable figures within the Republican universe should not be underestimated.

The scope of a high-turnout 50-state presidential primary might have been to large for this organizational muscle to translate well at the polls, but now that we are in a one-state campaign (in a medium-sized state no less) that should be decided by relatively low turnout, Rand Paul’s grassroots support could be more decisive - especially when we consider that the GOP electorate is in a different mood this year than it was in 2008 and that this activist base is being complemented by more institutional support than Ron Paul could have dreamed about: Sarah Palin endorsed Rand’s Senate candidacy last month. It is unclear whether the former Governor will actively campaign for Paul, though groups like Dick Armey’s Freedom Works should help him.

One key question that could go a long way towards deciding primary: Will the Club for Growth intervene? Speculation that the conservative PAC would endorse Paul dates back to November, when both candidates reportedly met with Club officials in Washington, but they have yet to do so despite already making decisions to intervene in Utah and Florida’s Senate primaries, both of which will be held much after Kentucky’s. Its reluctance to endorse Paul is perhaps due to the fact that Grayson himself is a Club member, and that he doesn’t seem as obviously offensive to conservatives than someone like Crist and arguably Bennett’s by Utah standards.


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Senate GOP leads in AR, NH, NV, CO, KY, IL but Reid enjoys uptick & Ayotte struggles in primary

The week’s most dramatic polls no doubt are those from Arkansas since they suggest that Blanche Lincoln’s fate is all but sealed. Rasmussen finds the senator’s favorability rating at a dismal 36-59; PPP shows her approval rating at an even more catastrophic 27-62. Her numbers against Republicans are a disaster. PPP has her down 56% to 33% against Rep. John Boozman and 50% to 35% against Gilbert Baker; Rasmussen shows her trailing by similar margins - 54% to 35% against Boozman, 52-33 against Baker, 50-34 against Curtis Coleman, 51-35 against Kim Hendren. Those are not numbers an incumbent recovers from.

The problem for Democrats is that they can hardly pull a Dodd or a Torricelli: PPP tested a variety of alternatives to Lincoln and found the GOP generally in control. The party’s only savior could be popular Governor Mike Beebe - and even then he is down 1% against Boozman and he leads Baker by an underwhelming 46% to 38%. Rep. Mike Ross trails Boozman 48-37 but ties Baker at 39%; Wesley Clark is down 51-36 and 45-39, respectively and Halter 53-30 and 45-34.

While none of these results are encouraging for Democrats, all four of her potential replacements perform better than the senator. Since Halter, Ross and Clark’s name recognition is lower and favorability ratings is incomparably stronger than Lincoln, they would also have more hope of improving their results while it is hard to envision the incumbent doing so. In short, the GOP is more likely than not to pick-up this seat but it does not mean Democrats should not at least try a switcheroo.

Senate: GOP also leads in NH, NV, CO, KY and IL…

New Hampshire: The first public poll of the GOP’s Senate primary finds that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has her work cut out for her: Research 2000 has her only leading Ovide Lamontagne 36% to 27%, with William Binnie at 4%. If conservatives decide they can add New Hampshire to an already long list of summer primaries they want to prioritize, Lamontagne could very well pull the upset and thus give Democrats a boost in the general election. While Rep. Paul Hodes trails Ayotte 46% to 39%, leads Lamontagne 46% to 36% - a 17% differential. The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that Ayotte remains the front-runner and her high favorability ratings and early poll lead presage good things for the NRSC.

Nevada: Harry Reid arguably just received the best poll he has seen in months - and it came from Rasmussen! While his numbers remain very rough, they are for once not insurmountable: His favorability rating stands at 44/55 and he trails all of his competitors “only” by single-digits: 45-39 against Lowden, 47-39 against Tarkanian and 44-40 against Angle. Of course, an incumbent has nothing to boast about when stuck around 40%, but last month Reid trailed by double-digits in all match-ups. We’ll have to see whether this trendline is an outlier or whether it is due to Reid’s well-financed attempts to improve his image. The poll’s most interesting part is the match-up between Reid and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been mulling the race ever since he was cleared of an indictement: Krolicki has the smallest lead among these four Republicans, 44% to 41%.

Colorado: No miracle for Michael Bennet in Rasmussen’s new poll: the unelected senator leads trails Republican front-runner Jane Norton by a massive 51% to 37%. That said, Bennet’s favorability rating remains (barely) positive and he should have an easier time to improve his numbers than other incumbents since he is less well-known and thus has more room to grow. And yet, his primary challenger Andrew Romanoff performs far better against Norton since he only trails 45% to 38% - a sign Democrats would be better off dumping the incumbent to start fresh? Both Democrats trail by more narrowly against Republicans Tom Wiens and Ken Buck.

Kentucky: Rasmussen’s monthly Kentucky poll confirms not only that the GOP has gained edge in this open seat (a red state’s electorate naturally gravitates rightward in this environment), but also that Rand Paul would be a far more formidable candidate than had been expected: He leads LG Mongiardo 48% to 37% and AG Conway 47% to 39%. Tray Grayson’s leads are more uneven, as his 49-35 rout over Mongiardo contrasts with his 44-40 lead over Conway. Democrats look like they’d be better off with Conway, whose favorability rating stands at 47-32, than with Mongiardo, whose favorability rating is a mediocre 45-43.

Illinois: Conducted by Rasmussen, The first public poll to test the Illinois Senate race since voters chose their nominees finds Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 40%, a result that contradicts PPP’s recent finding that the Democrat has an 8% lead; note that PPP’s poll was conducted just before Giannoulias was hit by new questions over his family bank, so that might account for some of the difference. In any case, Illinois is one state the DSCC simply cannot afford to lose so Kirk’s early lead is an ugly one for Democrats to see.

Connecticut: Even Rasmussen agrees there is nothing to see in this race since Chris Dodd’s retirement. Thanks to a massive 70% to 26% favorability rating, Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 54% to 35% and Linda McMahon 56% to 36%.

New York: I already reported Marist’s Senate survey earlier this week, and Quinnipiac’s poll draws the same lessons: Gillibrand starts with an edge in the Democratic primary but Harold Ford certainly has an opening (Gillibrand is up 36-18 with Tasini at 4) and the incumbent would be favored in the general election against Bruce Blakeman; however, she does not pass 50% in this survey (she leads 44% to 27%), a potential sign Blakeman could still gain traction as he introduces himself.

Arizona: John McCain and John Hayworth both released internal polls of what is shaping up to be a rough primary. As you would expect, the two camps’ numbers tell a different story. Hayworth’s survey (conducted by McLaughlin) has the incumbent leading 49% to 33% while McCain’s survey (conducted by POS) has him up 59% to 30%. Given that there is still a long time to go, that McCain is after all the GOP’s former presidential nominee and that he is better known than Hayworth, the latter set of numbers is also quite underwhelming and signals that the challenger has an opening.

Governor: White within single-digits of Perry, Michigan’s Cox leads

Texas: Since Bill White’s entry in the race, Democrats have been paying more attention to this gubernatorial race but Rasmussen is the first pollster to find a real opening for the Houston Mayor: When matched-up with Governor Rick Perry, he trails 48% to 39% - a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent since he is only up single-digits and remains under 50%. Against Kay Bailey Hutchison, White trails by a larger 49% to 36%. As such, whether the general election will be competitive depends from the outcome of the March-April primary; there is no little doubt White would rather face an incumbent with a mediocre 50-48 approval rating.

New York: David Paterson still looks to be heading towards certain defeat in Marist and Quinnipiac’s new polls. His approval rating stands at 26% in the former and 37% in the latter; that might be an improvement over his low points of 2009, but it leaves him in no position to be competitive against the ultra-popular Andrew Cuomo. Marist shows the Attorney General would crush the Governor by a stunning 70% to 23% in the primary, while Quinnipiac shows the margin to be a comparatively modest 55% to 23%. Both surveys have Paterson struggling against Rick Lazio (he trails by 3% in Marist, leads by 1% in Quinnipiac), while Cuomo crushes the former congressman by 37% and 32%.

Michigan: While some cheered Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s early January withdrawal as an opportunity to field a stronger candidate, EPIC-MRA’s latest poll finds state Democrats are hardly saved: Attorney General Mike Cox crushes the three Democrats he is matched-up against by margins ranging from 17% to 22%. Yet, Cox is not certain of surviving the primary, since he leads 32% to 25% against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who does not fare quite as well in the general election: He leads by 17% against Virg Bernero but only by 8% against Andy Dillon and by 7% against Denise Ilitch. The other good news for Democrats is that former GOP Rep. Schwarz is now saying he is 75% certain of running as an independent, which could lead Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Connecticut: Democrats don’t have as clear an edge in this Governor’s race since Susan Bysiewicz dropped out, though they still lead all match-ups in Rasmussen’s new poll: Ned Lamont is up 41-33 against Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and 40-37 against Tom Foley while while Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy tops the two Republicans by just 1%.

New Hampshire: Governor Lynch is one incumbent Democrats will apparently not have to worry about. In Research 2000’s new poll, he crushes low-profile businessman Kimball 59% to 13%.


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Filing deadline passes in Kentucky, West Virginia

As the GOP is scrambling to put as many Democratic-held seats in play as possible, the filing deadline passed in the 3rd and 4th states of the cycle: Kentucky and West Virginia. The good news for Democrats is that all four of their incumbents are running for re-election, which was not necessarily a given when the month started.

(Interestingly, no Democrats retired in the two states whose filing deadline had already passed. That does suggest that the increasingly worsening environment explains the mounting number of Democratic retirements and that the party is lucky that their 23 Illinois and Texas representatives had to make up their mind earlier than their Arkansas or Tennessee colleagues.)

West Virginia

One of Democrats’ worst surprises in the 2000 presidential election, West Virginia has gotten even more comfortable voting Republican ever since but they have remained loyal to Democrats at the non-presidential level. The party still holds all of the statewide positions, including the 2 Senate seats, the Governor’s Mansion and 4 other state-level positions.

Thankfully for Democrats, none of these positions are up for grabs in 2010, so they will maintain full control all the way to 2012, where there should be an all-out battle for Robert Byrd’s Senate seat in what could be the state’s first open race in 28 years. (Does anyone think it’s even remotely possible Byrd seeks a 10th term?) Over in the state legislature, Democrats are in no danger of losing their majorities: 69-31 in the lower chamber, 26-8 in the upper chamber.

WV-1: Republicans were ardently hoping 67-year old Alan Mollohan would retire, but Mollohan will be on the November ballot as he not only is running for re-election but is facing no primary opponents. He will face a competitive general election: the NRCC recruited businessman, former state party chairman and potential self-funder David McKinley, who served in the House of Delegates from 1981 to 1994. McKinley was expected to face a tough primary against state Senator Clark Barnes, who was highly touted by the GOP when he jumped in back in September; yet, Barnes appears to have dropped out: his name is not listed on the Secretary of State’s website. McKinley will have to beat 5 Republicans, however: Cindy Hall, Patricia Levenson, Sarah Minear, Thomas Stark, Mac Warner.

[Update: Mollohan landed a primary challenge who entered the race so last-minute that the SoS's website had not included his name when I checked the list of candidates this morning! State Senator Mike Oliverio, who has served in the Senate since 1994, announced he would seek the Democratic nomination, a surprise candidacy given how rarely entrenched incumbents face primary challenges. There is a reason for that, of course: It is typically tough for primary candidates to get much traction, so until we see how Oliverio intends to gain traction Mollohan will remain heavily favored to move on to the general election. Yet, Mollohan has conducted very little fundraising as of late so this challenge could wear him thin. The primary will be held on May, which should leave both parties' nominees time to rebound.]

WV-2: The district that gave John McCain his smallest margin of victory is the only one to be held by a Republican, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito. Democrats barely tried to oust her in 2006 and 2008, which they will probably come to regret in 2012, as Capito is the GOP’s most (only?) credible Senate candidate. But it is now too late to address that. Only one candidate filed to challenge Capito, so we already know that November will oppose the incumbent to Virginia Lynch Graf, a former nun.

WV-3: Democrats were far less worried about a potential retirement by Rep. Nick Rahall, but in recent months they still grew worried the 60-year old congressman might choose to call it quits. At the end of the day, he did no such thing, to Democrats’ relief. Three Republicans filed to run against him: Conrad G. Lucas, a former legislative aide to Rep. Capito; Marty Gearheart, whose website appears to contain no personal information; and nurse anesthetist Lee Bias. While Rahall is favored to win re-election, he should beware of a red wave; in particular, Lucas’s D.C. connections could help him fundraise and gain the NRCC’s attention.

Kentucky

The cycle’s stakes are higher in neighboring Kentucky because the state is hosting a highly competitive open Senate seat, the only statewide race that will be on the ballot this year. Indeed, all state-level positions - for Governor, Secretary of State, etc. - are filled in odd years.

Senate: LG Dan Mongiardo and AG Jack Conway head the Democratic field, though 3 other Democrats entered the race: doctor Jack Buckmaster, Darlene Price and businessman Maurice Sweeney will also be on the ballot. On the Republican side, SoS Trey Grayson’s dream of being the GOP front-runner has been shattered by Rand Paul’s momentum but at least he will not have to worry about competing with another candidate with establishment-backing: Former Ambassador Cathy Bailey floated her name a few months ago but she did not file for the race.

4 other Republicans joined Grayson and Paul, however. Bill Johnson, Gurley Martin, Jon Scribner and John Stephenson, who is the only one who might catch our attention since he did win the statewide office of Superintendent of Public Instruction. Yet, not only was his victory back in 1991, but voters abolished the office within a year! In 2000, Stephenson ran for a state Senate seat as a Democrat, which will obviously make it tough for him to gain any traction in the GOP primary.

KY-1, KS-4 and KS-5: In districts that gave McCain 62%, 60% and 67%, respectively, GOP incumbents should coast to re-election. Rep. Edward Whitfield and Rep. Geoff Davis are heavily favored to beat Charles Kendall Hatchett and John Waltz, their sole Democratic challengers. In KS-5, Kenneth Stepp, David Price and James Holbert are all seeking the Democratic nomination, though none should threaten Rep. Rogers.

KS-2: Rep. Brett Guthrie is no more vulnerable than the three Republicans listed above, but it is worth discussing him separately since he is a freshman who won a narrow first victory in 2008, when a Democratic state Senator put up a top-tier effort. But this year real estate agent Ed Marksberry should not be much of a match in a district that gave McCain 62%.

KS-3: The state’s only district that voted for Barack Obama did so by a decisive 13%, so Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth is not at the top of the GOP’s target list. Yet, he is only a two-term lawmaker in a seat long represented by Republican Anne Northup, and 5 Republicans filed to run against him: Jerry Durbin, financial adviser Larry Hausman, UPS pilot Todd Lally, Pizza Hut restaurant Jeff Reetz and Brooks Wicker. Yarmuth would be ill-advised to take the cycle for granted, but it would be a big surprise if KY-3 is on the map come the fall.

KY-6: Like KY-3, this is one district in which the filing deadline was too early for the NRCC to make the most of the newly improved landscape. 6 Republicans filed to challenge Rep. Ben Chandler, who has been one of the leaders of the state Democratic Party from his days as Attorney General and as the party’s gubernatorial nominee: Perry Barnes, attorney Andy Barr, John Kemper, Matt Lockett, George Pendergrass and retired coal company executive Mike Templeman. Barr is the front-runner: he reported raising more than $100,000 in the fourth quarter, which caught the NRCC’s attention enough that they added him to their “On the radar” list. KY-6 is arguably the state’s only district that has the potential to host a heated race this fall, but the GOP could have recruited a stronger challenger and Chandler remains clearly favored.

State legislature: The Courier Journal reports there was a flurry of GOP recruitment in local races following Scott Brown’s victory. This could help Republicans keep control of the state Senator, in which they have a 21-17 edge following a Democratic pick-up in a springtime special election; but Democrats have too large a majority in the state House to be in danger of losing control. In any case, Democrats are sure not be shut out of the redistricting process since Governor Beshear will be in power through 2011.


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Dems get still more ugly Senate numbers

The Boston Herald poll that was rumored to be coming today has not surfaced, which leaves us with no better idea of MA than this morning; while I did spend more time arguing that PPP should not be dismissed (this Blumenthal post is also worth reading), I agree with those who say the race is certainly Coakley’s to lose and that the poll’s release is one of the best thing that could have happened for her campaign. Unfortunately for Democrats, they have a lot more to worry about than Massachussetts since other polls released over the past few days find them in very tough spots in 3 key Senate races: AR, KY, NV. (These come on top of ARG’s NH poll, which I covered on Tuesday and which found Hodes trailing two Republicans outside of the MoE.) However, Democrats do get news from CT thanks to the combination of Dodd and Rell’s retirements and Lieberman’s unpopularity.

Nevada

Mason-Dixon paints quite an ugly picture for Harry Reid: He trails 50% to 40% against Sue Lowden, 49% to 41% against Danny Tarkanian and 45% to 40% against Sharron Angle. That latter result suggests Democrats can’t even root for Angle to win in the hope she’d be less electable, because there’s a good chance they would then find themselves with her as a senator. Here again, what’s striking is that none of the GOP nominees are particularly formidable or even high-profile, which makes their leads all the more telling of the huge trouble Reid is in. And as if those margins were not ugly enough, the Senate Majority Leader is plagued by a dismal 33% to 52% favorability rating. How can one envision winning re-election in such conditions?

This poll comes at a particularly troubled time for Reid, who is fielding a media firestorm since he admitted having told reporters during the 2008 campaign that Obama’s electability was helped by his light skin and his lack of a “Negro dialect.” The obvious parallel for Reid’s comments is Joe Biden’s 2007 remark on Obama, but the GOP is trying to tie them to the uproar that cost Trent Lott his leadership in 2002. I fail to see any similarity between Reid and Lott’s comments: The latter expressed regret that a segregationist candidate didn’t win the 1948 presidential election, i.e. he signaled support for racist policies, while the latter assessed the state of race relations. He used indefensible and insensitively anachronistic language, but that doesn’t change the fact that these two things have nothing in common. In any case, this episode will surely damage his standing in Nevada - and as the Mason-Dixon poll reveals he has no more room for any error.

Arkansas

Blanche Lincoln is sinking, according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Make of his methodology what you will, but dismissing his samples as too skewed towards Republicans do nothing to diminish trendlines, which are also very worrisome for the senator. She trails 51% to 39% against Gilbert Baker (compared to 7% in December), 48% to 38% against both Curtis Coleman and Tom Cox (she trailed both by 4% in December), 47% to 39% against Kim Hendren. I don’t need to tell you how atrocious it is for an incumbent to be stuck under 40%, let alone when a challenger manages to cross 50%, let alone when opponents she is trailing by double-digits are low-profile and little-known. Ugly, ugly, ugly.

Kentucky

At least, Democrats have nothing to lose in KY as it is currently by the GOP; but that doesn’t mean they didn’t have high hopes for contesting it. According to Rasmussen’s latest survey, however, the two Republican candidates have for the first time grabbed healthy lead. Trey Grayson leads Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo 45% to 35% and 44% to 37% respectively (in September, he was tied with the former and led the latter by the same margin); Rand Paul leads Conway 46% to 38% (he trailed by 4% in September) and crushes Mongiardo 49% to 35% (he led by 4% last month).

What’s most striking is that Paul is performing so well; it’s still hard to believe a general election featuring him could be as smooth for the GOP as one featuring Grayson, but there’s certainly little evidence at this point that the Texas congressman’s son would perform poorly against Democrats. The second striking fact is the very pronounced trendline, as the Republicans improve by more than 10% in three of the four match-ups. (I have a hard time believing that Rasmussen didn’t misreport its Grayson-Mongiardo numbers, which make little sense: Not only is is the only match-up to show no GOP improvement whatsoever, but it also has Mongiardo and Grayson performing better than their party rivals, something the other match-ups contradict.)

Connecticut

Thankfully for Democrats’ spirits, Rasmussen also released a poll confirming that Chris Dodd’s retirement immediately transformed a lean-GOP seat into a safe-Democratic seat: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 56% to 33%, Linda McMahon 58% to 34% and Peter Schiff 60% to 24%. These margins are slightly smaller than the ones PPP found earlier this week, but they’re certainly very decisive and show no hint of vulnerability on Blumenthal’s part since he very solidly clears the 50% threshold.

In fact, Connecticut could cheer Democrats overall in November, since PPP also found the party is clearly favored to win a gubernatorial election for the first time since 1986. While all candidates have somewhat low name recognition, the bottom-line is that Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leads the two Republican candidates (Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and former Ambassador Tom Foley) by 25% and 22%; Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy leads’ are less decisive, but they do reach double-digits.

On top of polling the senatorial and gubernatorial numbers, PPP also tested Joe Lieberman’s approval rating, and the numbers are brutal: While Lieberman managed to keep somewhat decent numbers after his endorsement of McCain, it seems like the health care debate did cost him whatever support he had left among Democrats. His approval rating stands at 25% (14% among Democrats), with 67% disapproving, which has got to make him one of the most unpopular senators in the country. Only 19% approved of Lieberman’s health-care related actions (versus 68%). Sure, Blumenthal can no longer be of service to dislodge Lieberman in 2012, but with numbers like this there are many other Democrats who’d have a strong shot.


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Poll watch: David Paterson enjoys uptick, Rand Paul grabs a decisive lead

For the third time this month, a poll suggests David Paterson’s fortunes have taken a turn for the better. First were Quinnipiac and Siena’s surveys, now is SUSA’s monthly look at the governor’s approval rating, which has risen to its highest level since January. Sure, it still stands at a dismal 32%, but that’s certainly an improvement over June’s 18%, October’s 22% and November’s 24%.

While this improvement is certainly not enough for him to be competitive against Andrew Cuomo, Paterson’s hope is that the Democratic establishment eases the pressure he faces to retire: He can now point to Giuliani’s decision not to run and to the uptick in his poll numbers to argue that he is electable after all. Paterson’s strategy is also to give Cuomo second thoughts by ensuring the primary doesn’t just like a formality. As such, the fact that his approval rating among African-Americans has risen from 25% to 43% in two months is excellent news for the governor: In 2002, Cuomo ran in a racially charged primary that proved a significant setback to his career, and he’d be likely to hesitate before getting in if there are any signs 2010 might prove a replay.

Dodd trails in internal poll

Another state, another Democratic incumbent who is trying to fight charges that he’s unelectable: Chris Dodd released an internal poll (conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner) this week that is supposed to reassure his party - but I’m unsure how it’s meant to do that. While he ties Linda McMahon at 46%, Dodd trails Rob Simmons 51% to 46%. The margin is smaller than what other polls’ have shown, but an incumbent will never get positive coverage for releasing an internal poll showing him behind. The desperation underlying such an act is so transparent that it can only raise eyebrows: This is the best showing the campaign has to release?

Is this poll a sign that Dodd is planning to dig, contrary to speculation that he’s open to retiring? Or is it a last-ditch effort to see if he can rally support from party officials? While we’ll only know the answer to this question in the next few months, the fact is that there’s still little evidence that national Democrats are trying to push the senator out. Joe Biden just hosted a fundraiser for his re-election race. Compare that with the treatment Jim Bunning received earlier this year.

Rand Paul seizes commanding leads in Kentucky Senate race

Democratic candidates in other open Senate seats have been able to resist the worsening environment, but Kentucky is too conservative for the shifting political winds not to have had a major impact: While in April PPP found the general election to be a toss-up, the two Republican candidates have substantially improved their performances to grab decisive leads. SoS Tray Grayson leads 40% to 33% against AG Jack Conway (he trailed by 4% in April) and 44% to 35% against LG Dan Mongiardo; Rand Paul leads both Democrats 42% to 36%, a stronger showing than what earlier polls have found.

Picking-up this seat hasn’t looked easy for Democrats ever since Jim Bunning announced he’d retire, and it does look like the party’s nominee will have to swim against the national and state tide. (In the Democratic primary, Conway leads 37% to 33%, which makes this the first public poll to have the Attorney General ahead.)

But PPP’s most stunning finding is that Rand Paul has grabbed a big lead against establishment favorite Grayson in the GOP primary: 44% to 25%. Other surveys have found Paul to be unexpectedly strong, but never to this extent. It’s hard not to see this as good news for Democrats: While Paul has outside of the MoE leads, he’s a far riskier proposition for Republicans than Grayson. An untested candidate (it showed this week), Paul could give Democrats the openings they need to make the race about him whereas Grayson could run the type of quite campaign that allows him to win on the sole basis of the national environment. (Another arguable reason for Democrats to root for Paul: Even if he wins the general election, he’d give the GOP leadership far more headaches than the presumably reliable Grayson would.)

Dorgan at the mercy of Hoeven’s entry

Senator Byron Dorgan has reason to be nervous: Not only is there continuing buzz that Governor John Hoeven might challenge him come January, but polls showing Hoeven would start as the clear frontrunner are piling on. We’d had Zogby (+19% for Hoeven) and Public Opinion Strategies (+17% for Hoeven), we now get Rasmussen’s first foray in North Dakota, which is the best yet for the Republican: He leads by a stunning 22%, 58% to 36%. Dorgan’s vulnerability entirely stems from Hoeven’s strength: While it pales in comparison to Hoeven’s 82% favorability rating, Dorgan’s 62% rating is very strong. Also, he leads the GOP’s 2008 House nominee (Duane Sand) 52% to 37%. In short, Hoeven’s decision is up there with Beau Biden’s as the biggest shoe left drop in the 2010 cycle.

Michigan’s governorship still looks out of Cherry’s reach

Many polls this year have shown that Lieutenant Governor John Cherry is in no position to win Michigan’s governorship, and Rasmussen confirms how large a deficit he starts with: Posting a mediocre favorability rating (39-35) whereas all his Republican rivals enjoy far stronger numbers, Cherry trails Attorney General Mike Cox 39% to 34%, Rep. Pete Hoekstra 46% to 32% and Sheriff Mike Bouchard 42% to 32%. In particular weighed down by Jennifer Granholm’s dismal approval rating (32-66), Cherry can’t even point to a name recognition differential to explain his large deficits.


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Thompson, Bailey, Wicker and Mahoney: Movement in 4 key Senate races

Wisconsin: The Tommy Thompson threat

The number of Senate seats Democrats have to defend is rising by the month, but one the party has managed not to worry about is Wisconsin: With Rep. Paul Ryan ruling out a bid and Attorney General John Van Hollen showing no interest, Republican hopes had fallen on businessman Terrence Wall, who would be in no position to endanger Russ Feingold. And yet, the possibility of a competitive Senate race in Wisconsin surfaced today.

Former Governor Tommy Thompson made it clear he had yet to rule out challenging Feingold - or even jumping in the gubernatorial contest, about which Democrats have been feeling better since Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett joined the race last week. “I haven’t said no,” he said. “I’m looking at it. I’m looking at governor, I’m looking at senator and I’m looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.”

That seems like somewhat of a bizarre choice to me, since Elroy looks have less than 2,000 inhabitants and the mayorship is hardly the type of position you’d expect a former Cabinet Secretary to fall back on. So if Thompson is indeed leaning towards seeking one of those three offices, that would be worrisome to Democratic prospects of defending both their Senate seat or the governorship. A Research 2000 poll released in June found Thompson with a strong favorability rating (54% to 36%) and leading in two gubernatorial match-ups; a University of Wisconsin poll released last month had Thompson leading Feingold, 43% to 39%.

Kentucky: Road keeps getting tougher for Trey Grayson

The man who was presented as im Bunning’s heir apparent is finding an increasingly tricky path to the Republican nomination. As if Rand Paul was not proving a big enough threat, Secretary of State Tray Grayson might now have to deal with former Ambassador to Latvia Cathy Bailey, who is now expressing interest in the race in order to keep it “in true conservative hands.” She described Grayson as the “moderate choice” while criticizing Paul’s “extreme positions,” which suggests she is hoping to position herself as a consensus candidate - conservative enough for the base and electable enough for the general election.

I have seen little to suggest that Grayson is a moderate in any meaningful sense of the term; he is simply the GOP establishment’s candidate. The twist is that Cathy Bailey would also be an establishment candidate. She is well-connected in GOP circles (as we can expect from those Bush appointed ambassador) and she chaired Mitch McConnell’s 2008 campaign. As such, her entry in the race would delight Paul: While his rivals would be left fighting for the mainstream mantra, he would ride the anti-establishment sentiment among movement conservatives - and he’d have a better shot at scoring a plurality win (in a 3-way race) than reaching 50% against Grayson.

North Carolina: One more Democrat bows out

Strike one more name off of the list of North Carolina’s potential Democratic candidates: After spending a few months expressing interest in the race, former Lieutenant Governor Dennis Wicker announced today that he would not challenge Senator Richard Burr. While he was getting a lot of press over his indecision, Wicker has been out of office since 2001 so it’s doubtful he would have been the party’s top candidates; in polls, he typically came in very slightly weaker than Elaine Marshall and Bob Etheridge.

You might think this would mean that national Democrats would finally recognize that Secretary of State Elaine Marshall is their candidate, but the DSCC looks as inexplicably committed as ever to displaying total lack of confidence in the one prominent candidate they have in the race. I detailed this last week, so for this post suffice it to say that The News & Observer is reporting that DSCC officials have not given up on recruiting Cal Cunningham, even though the former state Senator ruled out a run last week. This is preventing Marshall from getting the media to acknowledge her as a worthwhile candidate. Writes The Hill in its post on Wicker’s withdrawal: “All eyes remain on Cal Cunningham.”

New Hampshire: Lamontagne could solidify conservative support

One of the big question marks surrounding Ovide Lamontagne’s Senate bid in New Hampshire is whether he can impose himself as the go-to candidate for conservatives looking to block Kelly Ayotte; indeed, the possibility that a multitude of Republicans go after Ayotte simultaneously would have all but certainly handed the nomination to the Attorney General. But Lamontagne’s most serious competitor (businessman Sean Mahoney) announced today that he would not run.

The publisher of BusinessNH magazine, Mahoney has significant financial resources he could have used. His candidacy could have split the conservative vote, prevented the emergence of a clear alternative to Ayotte and made it less likely that national organizations thought it worthwhile to get involved. As such, today’s development is good news for Lamontagne - and by extension to Democrats, who would much rather face him in the general election. (Note that Ayotte hasn’t yet fully antagonized the conservative intelligentsia, whether the Club for Growth or the New Hampshire Union-Leader, so Lamontagne still has a long way to go to make this primary look anything like Florida’s or Utah’s.)


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Polls confirm Crist’s decline, find Rand Paul has momentum, show Burr’s stuck in low 40s

Florida poll confirms Crist’s decline

The narrative of Charlie Crist’s declining fortune isn’t just driven by idle speculation: Numerous polls have confirmed that the governor is now in a far worse position than he was in the spring. The latest Florida survey to cause heartburn in the Crist camp was released last week by a group of media outlets, including The St. Petersburg Times, Miami Herald and Bay News 9.  It finds only 42% of respondents giving favorable marks to Crist’s performance, while 55% say he is doing a fair or a poor job. It wasn’t so long ago Crist’s approval rating topped 60%.

In somewhat better news for the governor, he remains on top of Marco Rubio by a decisive margin - 50% to 28%, a larger lead than what mid-October polls found. That said, there is nothing here for Crist to celebrate: Given the wide name recognition gap between the two contenders, that Crist is not clearing the 50% mark is highly problematic.

In a fascinating nugget that confirms conservative anger at Crist, 71% of Republican respondents say they’d prefer to have Jeb Bush lead Florida while 23% say Crist; among the electorate at large, 46% pick the former governor and 41% the current. Remember that Rubio is an ally of Bush; even if he doesn’t manage to win his endorsement, he clearly has a lot of frustration to tap into here.

While the poll did not test general election match-ups in the Senate race, it did pit Alex Sink and Bill McCollum, finding the former ahead well within the margin of error (38% to 37%). This is only the second poll to find the Democrat with any type of lead; most recent polls (including Quinnipiac, Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen) had found McCollum ahead outside of MoE.

Rand Paul seizes the lead in Kentucky’s GOP primary

Trey Grayson has nothing in common with Dede Scozzafava, but he represents the Republican establishment versus Rand Paul’s insurgent campaign. That should be enough to make Kentucky’s Senate primary one of the many fronts of the GOP’s internal war.

A new SUSA poll confirms that this will be a real race, contrary to early expectations that Grayson would lock the GOP nomination away. That Rand Paul was within 11% of Grayson in August was already considered a strong showing, but this latest survey has him ahead - 35% to 32%. Self-identified conservatives go for Paul 39% to 31%, while moderates prefer Grayson by 8%. (Interestingly, Paul’s libertarianism also helps him with Republican voters who never go to church, among whom he leads handily.)

While Paul is competitive in the general election, he would start in a far weaker position than Grayson. While the Secretary of State leads Jack Conway 43% to 39% and crushes Dan Mongiardo 48% to 38%, Paul trails Conway 44% to 39% and ties Mongiardo at 43%.

The same discrepancy exists among Democrats: Conway might be the clearly stronger general election nominee in SUSA’s survey - independents seem to be particularly hostile to Mongiardo - but he trails in the Democratic primary 38% to 29%. While I had the impression that Mongiardo has been positioning himself to Conway’s right, he is far stronger among liberals while Conway is more competitive among moderate-to-conservative Democrats. (Note that Conway’s campaign released an internal poll showing a tighter primary, but also finding Mongiardo in the lead: 40% to 37%).

Burr still is stuck in the low 40s

Poll after poll have shown Richard Burr well under 50% and leading by lackluster margins. Most surveys have found that this is due to surprisingly low name recognition (which gives Democrats an opening) rather than to his popularity level. Yet, a new Research 2000 poll, conducted for Democratic group Change Congress, finds downright ugly numbers for the freshman senator. Only 21% of respondents say that he should win a second term; 45% say they would rather be represented by someone new. Burr’s favorability rating is no better: 39% to 46%.

Burr does lead against two Democrats: 42% to 35% against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who is running), 43% to 35% against Rep. Bob Etheridge (who hasn’t made up his mind). It might be good news for Burr that he’s ahead with such favorability numbers, but there is no question that it’s a sign of great vulnerability for an incumbent to be stuck in the low 40s in poll after poll. Corzine’s spent all of 2009 hovering in that range, making his defeat ultimately unsurprising.

Another interesting lesson of this survey is the lap of an electability gap between Marshall and Etheridge, which has been confirmed by other pollsters.This might not directly rebut those national Democrats who transparently believe they’d be better off with Etheridge (their concerns appear to have more to do with fundraising and ability on the trail than with popularity), but it does solidify Marshall’s hold on the nomination: It dramatically reduces the sense that Democrats are falling short recruitment-wise, which makes Etheridge less urgently desired and thus less likely to get in.

Maryland voters might consider replacing O’Malley, but Gov looks safe

A rare incumbent governor who hasn’t had too many reasons to be worried is Marty O’Malley. Not only is he running in a heavily blue state, but he looks fairly unlikely to face top-tier opposition. And yet, a new Clarus Research Group poll finds that 48% of Maryland voters say they’d like a new governor elected; 37% say O’Malley should win re-election.

Thankfully for the governor, re-elect numbers are not the end of the history. His approval rating is decent enough - 48% to 40% - that it is hard to see how him stumble: For a Republican to have a chance to win in Maryland would require that O’Malley be just as unpopular as Corzine was in New Jersey, and he is nowhere near that. Furthermore, O’Malley is leading former Governor Bob Ehrlich 47% to 40%. While any incumbent under 50% is vulnerable, that rule is less telling when the challenger is as well known as Ehrlich - not to mention that the former governor is the only prominent politician Republicans have, and he doesn’t look likely to run.

For those wondering whether Senator Barbara Mikulski has anything to worry about, well, she doesn’t: 53% of respondents want to see her re-elected, versus 36% who said they’d rather see someone new. Combine that with her 57% and 28% approval rating, and a fifth term is all but in the bag.


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Senate polls find GOP in stronger position in NH than KY

As we enter October, the Senate landscape looks different than what it was early in 2009. Some of Democrats’ top pick-up opportunities (for instance New Hampshire) now look like trickier operations while Kentucky and Pennsylvania have become big question marks for the defending parties, with two now polls finding closer contests than what conventional wisdom dictates.

NH: Two polls have Ayotte ahead in fluid race

Once upon a time, the Granite State looked like the most vulnerable Senate seat in the country - and it is still listed as such in my four-months old Senate rankings. But there is no doubt that the GOP at the very least got itself in the running when it convinced Attorney General Kelly Ayotte to enter the race. According to two new polls, Ayotte even holds a 7% lead against presumptive Democratic nominee Paul Hodes - a far cry from the race’s outlook back in the spring.

First comes the WMUR/Granite State poll, which has Ayotte ahead of Hodes 40% to 33%; the Democrat does lead Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney 37% to 38%. Second, an American Research Group survey has Ayotte leading by a comparable 41% to 34%.

Both surveys suggest that the state’s political situation is very fluid. ARG finds 49% of independents are undecided; WMUR says that only 6% say they have definitely decide who they will support - a figure that is unrealistically low (many voters are firm partisans) but still illustrates that voters don’t have a firm opinion about either candidate.

That said, the bottom line is that more voters are now choosing the Republican when asked to choose between two candidates they are not entirely familiar with. There is plenty of time for Democrats to turn that around, but it does suggest the environment is more propicitious for the GOP than it was from 2006 onwards. After all, Sununu led in barely any survey in 2008; just this past June, he trailed Hodes by 6% in an ARG survey. As such, Ayotte’s leads are a reassuring sight for the NRSC, which was not so long ago worried it would have to give up this seat.

KY: Conway outperforms Mongiardo, ties Grayson

In what I believe is the first poll to find a clear electability difference between Kentucky’s two Democratic candidates, Rasmussen shows Attorney General Jack Conway in a highly competitive position while Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo struggles. Conway ties GOP frontrunner Tray Greyson at 40% and he leads Rand Paul 42% to 38%; Mongiardo, on the other hand, trails both Republicans outside of the margin of error: 44% to 37% against Grayson, 43% to 38% against Paul.

While Mongiardo has suffered through a rough patch of news lately - audio surfaced of his insulting Governor Steve Beshear, who is paradoxically his Senate campaign’s main endorser - but I doubt that alone can explain the fact that the Lieutenant Governor is the only one of those four candidates with a clearly negative favorability rating: 41/43, as opposed to 49/27 for Conway, 53/20 for Grayson and 51/23 for Paul. We also cannot explain Mongiardo’s unpopularity with his belonging to the executive since Beshear is quite popular (59% to 41%).

Add to Beshear’s strong approval rating the fact that Obama is more popular than we could expect from a state McCain won decisively (47/53) and Conway’s ability to keep the race tied, and Kentucky looks like a very credible opportunity for the DSCC in 2010. It will obviously not be easy, but given that the landscape is getting tougher for Democrats in many states, this is a welcome break.

One other major theme of this poll is Rand Paul’s electability: It will be easy for Paul’s (vocal) supporters to argue that nominating their champion is not a kamikaze operation on the GOP’s part if polls continue to find Paul leading the sitting Lieutenant Governor. Other pollsters have found the Republican primary more competitive than the NRSC would like, so if on top of that polls find no wide electability gap between Grayson and Paul the latter’s prospects could still improve.

PA: Specter’s primary lead shrinks, fall behind in general election

Ever since he switched parties, polls have not been kind to Senator Arlen Specter. The latest survey to find him in trouble in both the April primary and the November general election is Quinnipiac, which has the incumbent’s favorability rating in negative territory: 42/46 - not terrible numbers, but nothing to boast of either, especially considering that those who know Pat Toomey and Joe Sestak overwhelmingly like them.

In the Democratic primary, Specter leads Sestak 44% to 25%. That might seem like a huge lead, but it represents a significant 11% tightening since Quinnipiac’s July survey. Furthermore, the name recognition differential between the two - 88% of respondents have an opinion of Specter, only 29% for Sestak - makes the situation highly worrisome for the incumbent: If he is well below 50% before Sestak even starts introducing himself while reminding voters of his ties to Bush, McCain and conservatism, what will his numbers look like in April?

In the general election, presumptive Republican nominee Pat Toomey has a slight lead over both Democrats: 43% to 42% against Specter, 38% to 35% against Sestak. Here again, the numbers conceal part of the story: That Sestak polls roughly as well as the far better known incumbent is as clear a sign as we have gotten that Specter should not be considered the stronger general election contender - quite the contrary. With Barack Obama’s approval rating at a decent 49% to 42%, Democrats remain favored to win a generic partisan battle in this state, which suggests they’d be better off running Sestak than an unpopular incumbent.

DE: Why Caste’s decision is so eagerly awaited

When the year started, we were looking forward to a half-dozen truly major midterm decisions. Rep. Mike Castle is now one of the only politicians left who have yet to make up their mind but whose decision alone will determine whether a race is competitive. A new Rasmussen poll confirms why that is: While Beau Biden is so popular that it’s hard to see him running in much trouble against anyone but the state’s congressman, Castle leads Biden 47% to 42%.

And thus we go on waiting for this waiting game to end so we can determine whether Delaware will be one of the GOP’s top takeover opportunities or an uneventful Democratic hold.

As for gubernatorial polls, it looks like tomorrow morning could bring earth-shattering news in New Jersey’s contest. Stay tuned!


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In Nevada and Kentucky, Senate polls confirm August surprises

Second summer poll finds Reid in big trouble, whoever his opponent

Two weeks after Mason Dixon poll shockingly found Harry Reid sinking against a low-profile Republicans, Research 2000 confirms that the Majority Leader’s standing is weak enough that the GOP does not need a top-tier challenger to make him vulnerable: Weighed down by a brutal approval rating (36-52), Reid trails the two Republicans who have attracted the most buzz in recent weeks - 45% to 40% against Danny Tarkanian, 44% and 41% against party chairwoman Sue Lowden.

Those margins might be tighter than they were in Mason Dixon, but that’s hardly a comforting thought for Democrats. Not only is their Senate leader struggling to break the 40% mark - a dreadful sign for any incumbent - but this is the second poll in a row to find him trailing a real estate professional whose main political experience is his crushing defeat in the 2006 Secretary of State contest.

Worse still for Reid: Lowden, who is arguably more suited to wage a competitive race, now appears to be a probable contender - something that was not true two weeks ago. Lowden just resigned her position at the chair of the Nevada Republican Party, a move that is being taken as a clear sign that she is preparing to jump in the Senate race. (Given that she will face a competitive primary, it would be unseemly of her to run while remaining at the head of the state party.)

It might still be difficult to conceive of the well-financed Reid losing to either of these candidates, but the time has come to admit that the NRSC is succeeding at putting this Senate race in play and to do with Nevada what we did with Arkansas last month - put it on the map and leave it there.

A side note about Nevada: It is striking that the state’s two Republican officeholders are (unsurprisingly) far more unpopular than Reid. Ensign’s post-scandal numbers are in the gutter (28-53) while Jim Gibbons is holding on to the title of most unpopular governor in the country (17-61). Needless to say, Gibbons has have no credible hope of winning re-election next year, the main question being whether he loses in the primary or the general election.

Rand Paul’s strength is again the takeaway of a Kentucky poll

Research 2000 also tested Kentucky’s Senate race and found strikingly similar results as SUSA’s August survey. As expected, Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson is the slight favorite to replace Jim Bunning but the two Democratic candidates are definitely in contention. As expected, the Democratic primary is highly competitive. But what is not expected is that Rand Paul is looking so able to slow down the Grayson coronation.

Posting a better favorability rating than any of his three Senate rivals (39-16), Paul manages to get 25% of the Republican primary, versus 40% for Grayson. The Secretary of State does not have a daunting name recognition advantage, which reduces the significance of Paul’s strong showing, but it certainly makes him a contender. With early signs that he might be able to replicate some of his father’s fundraising prowess, he should be able to stay competitive. After all, McConnell’s numbers (44-51) are too weak for his support alone to guarantee Grayson the nomination, not to mention that the Senate Minority Leader is only expressing his preferences tacitly.

In the general election, Grayson holds a narrow 45% to 41% lead against Dan Mongiardo and a 46% to 40% lead against Jack Conway; both Democrats have slight edges against Paul, 42% to 37% for Mongiardo and 41% to 37% for Conway. With all three of the statewide officials posting decent favorability ratings, the poll at this point is coming down to voters’ partisan preference - and here Democrats will have to play a subtle balancing act: While their local party is popular (Governor Beshear is relatively popular and Democrats just picked up a state Senate seat), their national party is not (Obama’s favorability rating is down to only 34%). Of course, that’s nothing new in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, and it hasn’t prevented Democrats from winning before.

Why so many undecideds in Pennsylvania?

There is nothing more usual than having large numbers of undecideds in a race involving little-known contenders. But when a third of the electorate refrains from expressing an opinion on a five-term Senator, it’s hard to know what to make of the poll, which is why I am leaving Franklin & Marshall’s latest take on Pennsylvania at the bottom of this post. The pollster finds Arlen Specter posting leads against Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary (37% to 11%) and against Pat Toomey in the general election (37% to 29%). Toomey leads a match-up with Sestak, 26% to 22%.

When a race has such wide disparities in name recognition - 77% of respondents have an opinion of Specter, 28% of Toomey and 17% of Sestak - a pollster’s refusal to push undecideds will have big consequence. In this case, this explains Sestak’s general election underperformance. The good news for Specter critics is that the longtime senator is stuck at low levels of support, is widely unpopular (his approval rating is down to a dismal 35-54) and only 34% of respondents say he deserves to win re-election. Before helping Toomey in the general election, voters’ growing hostility towards Specter will help Sestak in the primary - but we will have to wait for him to increase his name recognition before we see numbers move.


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Poll watch: Republicans Grayson, McCollum and McInnis grab leads

Grayson holds slight edge in first post-Bunning poll

My surprise over Rand Paul’s strong showing led me to ignore the rest of that survey, though all of it was newsworthy: Kentucky remains a dramatically underpolled state and SUSA’s poll is one of the first released this entire year. This dearth of information is quite a shame since Kentucky’s race is more important than North Carolina or Florida’s often-polled contests since and Democrats have a stronger takeover chance here - or so we thought before Jim Bunning announced his retirement.

What is the situation now that the Senate race is open? The poll confirms what we had guessed: Bunning’s retirement improved the GOP’s prospects. Had he ran for re-election, Democrats would have enjoyed a slight edge because of his unpopularity; but as things stand now, the race is essentially a contest between credible statewide officials from both parties - and in such a generic partisan battle, Republicans are bound to have a slight advantage in what is a red-leaning state.

The poll finds Secretary of State Grayson leading Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo 46% to 40%; against Attorney General Jack Conway, the margin is 44% to 37%.

Unfortunately, SUSA did not test favorability ratings so we cannot know whether any of Grayson’s lead comes from an advantage in name recognition. Comparatively low-profile Rand Paul’s competitiveness does suggest that the state’s electorate is in a GOP-friendly mood, however: If he were to win the GOP nomination, he would start trailing but not by much: Conway is ahead 43% to 38% and Mongiardo 43% to 41%.

There isn’t a meaningful electability difference between the two Democrats; to the extent that there are more Democrats who are undecided in match-ups involving Conway, the AG might have a bit more room to grow but that is negligeable. We’ll see whether a gap will open up once voters see both men in action over the next few months. And there isn’t much space between the two in the Democratic primary either: SUSA shows Mongiardo ahead 39% to 31% thanks to his lead in rural areas; Conway leads big in the Louisville region.

McCollum takes narrow edge in Quinnipiac survey

Ever since Florida’s gubernatorial race became competitive in May, Quinnipiac had been the only pollster to find any sort of lead for Democratic candidate Alex Sink - a 4% lead in an early June poll. Yet, Quinnipiac’s latest survey has them joining other pollsters in finding that Republican Bill McCollum enjoys a slight advantage: 38% to 34%, with a high 25% of voters undecided. The difference between the two polls comes from a 20% rightward shift among independent - we shall maybe know in the future whether that’s statistical noise or whether it’s due to a change in the national environment.

The good news for Sink is that she has a lot of room to grow since she has only a fraction of McCollum’s name recognition: While 55% of respondents have an opinion of McCollum, only 32% have one of Sink. That kind of differential is bound to impact general election trial heats, and it’s a testament to Florida’s competitiveness that Sink is already within 4% before introducing herself to voters.

On the other hand, McCollum is looking far more popular than is typical for a two-time failed Senate candidate: His favorability rating is a very solid 42-13 while 53% of respondents approve his job as Attorney General. So it’s not like voters are just waiting to be introduced to a strong alternative to suddenly desert McCollum, who looks popular among respondents who are now calling themselves independent.

Ritter trails McInnis in Colorado

It’s been a few months that Bill Ritter has gone from seemingly safe to highly endangered incumbents, and the curse that is plaguing governors nationwide is showing no sign that it will leave its approval ratings intact. But is that awareness enough to prepare us for ugly numbers like those of PPP’s latest poll?

PPP, which can hardly be accused of trying to boost Republicans, had already found Ritter in trouble in an April poll but its latest release finds the governor with his lowest approval rating of the cycle: This 40% to 45% is a stark drop from the 49% to 36% Ritter posted in PPP’s December survey.

The head-to-head match-ups are no prettier: Ritter trails former Rep. Scott McInnis 46% to 38%. He also fails to lead state Senator John Penry; Republicans might say isa rising star, but he still has a low enough profile that his tying Ritter at 40% is a very worrisome sign. For an incumbent to be under 50% is a clear sign of vulnerability, but to struggle to break the 40% mark against a little-known opponent is enough to put you on the list of most endangered governors.

Interestingly, these numbers are similar to the Senate results PPP released a few days ago: Ritter and Senator Michael Bennet both havor in the high 30s-low 40s range with their Republican opponents osclliating between a slight deficit and a lead depending on their notoriety. That suggests that these incumbents’ weak numbers have as much to do with the national environment as with anything particular pertaining to their tenures. What’s unfortunate for Democrats is that neither of their incumbents will be able to pull the other upward.


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The Rand Paul factor

It’s a testament to Ron Paul’s popularity among the conservative base that his son, an eye surgeon who has never before run for office, is within 11% of Secretary of State Trey Grayson in SUSA’s poll of Kentucky’s Senate race.

Ever since Jim Bunning announced his retirement, it has looked like a forgone conclusion that Grayson would easily win the Republican nomination. This poll is the first sign yet that he might have a fight on his hand and that the insider/outsider war that has been splitting the GOP in other states could make its way over to Kentucky.

Sure, Paul should be a different type of candidate than Steelman, Lamontagne and Toomey since his anti-establishment message should follow a libertarian strand rather than an all-conservative one. But he could emerge to be just the same - one big headache for the NRSC’s favorite candidate.

In 2008, Ron Paul failed to translate his huge financial haul and the fervor of his supporters into that many raw votes in primaries, he had to divide up his attention in many states, fight for attention against 5 serious Republican candidates and generally not look threatening enough to be taken seriously. But his son will be able to concentrate on a single state, develop a network of supporters and - most importantly - take on the establishment’s candidate in a one-on-one race. That should make him look like a legitimate threat since he’d be Grayson’s only competition.

(To have any hope of making this race even worth watching Paul will have to fundraise as successfully as his father did last year. He has a “money bomb” planned for August 20th, so we shall see whether he can revive at least some of his father’s network.)

One reason that Kentucky might be an ideal place for libertarians to stage an insurgent campaign is that the GOP electorate tilts far to the right. With the Democratic party competitive at the local level, registered Democrats vastly outnumber registered Republicans (in the 2008 exit poll, 47% of Kentucky voters described themselves as Democrats); yet, the state is clearly red. This means that many voters who typically vote GOP but consider Democrats in local races have stuck around with their habitual party, leaving Republican primaries to be decided by more conservative voters.

At least, the NRSC can tell itself that, as long as Grayson wins the nomination, having done so by facing surviving a competitive primary should not damage his general election prospects. I can think of three reasons for this:

1. Democrats are going through a competitive primary of their own, and the battle between Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway is showing every sign that it will be a nasty affair. In early August, Mongiardo questioned Conway’s blue-collar credentials, accusing him of “choosing to fight for the silver-spoon issues preferred by the champagne-and-caviar crowd.” Conway issued a fiery response at a church picnic- but he then drew criticism for having described himself as a “son of a bitch.” Mongiardo’s spokesperson made sure to dramatize the incident: “He shouted profanities on a church lawn with church leaders and young children present.”

2. Coverage of Grayson’s race against Paul should allow the Secretary of State to get some easy media coverage at a time Mongiardo and Conway would otherwise be expected to dominate the airwaves.

3. Kentucky’s primary will be held in May, which is early enough that both nominees should have plenty of time to prepare for the general election, no matter how brutal the contests. (Compare this May date to Missouri, New York or Florida’s late August-early September contests.)

4. Kentucky is conservative enough that Grayson should not be meaningfully hurt if he has to move far to the right in running against Paul.

That last reason is arguably the most important, and it’s one that does not apply to the other major Senate race in which a libertarian candidate is threatening to make life difficult for the NRSC’s preferred candidate: Connecticut. Peter Schiff has been attracting buzz in Ron Paul’s network - the congressman himself has been helping him raise money - and the need to fend off this challenge could force former Rep. Rob Simmons to move far further to the right on economic issues that is a good idea for a Northeastern Republican.

Worst still for Connecticut Republicans: That primary will be held in August. By November, the wounds of an ideologically divisive battle might not be fully healed, nor can Simmons be sure he’ll have had time to move back to the center.


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McConnell and Cornyn got what they wanted

Thank you for all your good wishes and thank you for being patient while I step back from blogging to take care of family matters. Things are on the right track but it remains too early for me to come back. Yet, I simply could not stay away from covering a truly major development in the Senate battle: Bunning is retiring.

July continues to bring good news for the NRSC: After Kelly Ayotte and Mark Kirk’s candidacy statements, Jim Bunning’s announcement that he will not seek re-election is music to the GOP’s ears.

With his unpopularity, gaffes and past close calls, the aging Republican was generally considered certain to lose if he ran for re-election - and that alone hardened the conventional wisdom that Bunning was sure to head out. Yet, the Senator repeated over and over that he was certain to run: he threatened to sue the NRSC when its chairman suggested otherwise and ripped into any prominent Republican who suggested that the Senator might retire.

Terrified at the prospect of Bunning’s candidacy, the Republican leadership openly signaled that they were looking to get rid of him. John Cornyn met with a potential primary challenger, Mitch McConnell put up obstacles to Bunning’s fundraising and heir apparent Secretary of State Trey Grayson formed an exploratory committee. Bunning was having an increasingly tough time fighting the Republican sharks who were circling him.

“When they recruit someone to run against you in a primary, it puts doubt in people’s minds that you are going to finish the race,” said Bunning in April. “Therefore, they’re waiting and waiting and waiting. It’s almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Well, they only had to wait three more months for Bunning to give up. “Over the past year, some of the leaders of the Republican Party in the Senate have done everything in their power to dry up my fundraising,” he said in a statement. “The simple fact is that I have not raised the funds necessary to run an effective campaign for the U.S. Senate. For this reason, I will not be a candidate for re-election in 2010.”

Based on the determination with which McConnell and Cornyn sabotaged Bunning’s campaign, you can be sure that they are now ecstatic. His retirement dramatically improves their odds of defending Kentucky’s Senate seat.

Sure, an open seat race is far from a sure victory for the GOP. Kentucky’s conservative drift gives the party a slight advantage but Grayson is sure to face a top-tier opponent. (Attorney General Jack Conway and Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo are already seeking the Democratic nomination, and both are sure to be highly competitive in the general election.) As such, Kentucky should host one of the most suspenseful of the cycle.

But that alone is a huge relief for the NRSC. As of this morning, Democrats were more likely than not to pick-up the seat; now, the race looks like a pure toss-up. This is yet another in a series of developments that should give the NRSC hope it might finally reverse its fortunes and hold down its midterm losses - perhaps even pick-up a few seats!

Indeed, the NRSC is smiling about other races as well. Last week, we saw that Specter was locked in a tie with Pat Toomey. Since then, 2 new Senate surveys find Democratic incumbents in trouble:

  • In CA, Rasmussen has Senator Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina by an unimpressive 4% - 45% to 41%. At 50%, her approval rating is not that concerning but it is nothing to boast about either.
  • In CT, Quinnipiac finds that Dodd is unable to improve his numbers: 55% of respondents say that he is not honest and trustworthy, versus only 35% who say the contrary. He trails former Rep. Simmons 48% to 39% (he trailed 45-39 in May). He does lead state Senator Sam Caligirui 42% to 40% and he ties former Ambassador Tom Foley at 42%

Ever since we saw the first polls showing Dodd in trouble, there has been a tendency to assume that his numbers would improve in time - but that plainly does not appear to be the case. Connecticut voters mistrust Dodd’s ethics, and such a blow to one’s reputation is very tough for any well-known incumbent to overcome. With the Senator increasingly looking like the Democrats’ version of Bunning, will the Democratic leadership start pressuring him into retirement?

Overall, it is unlikely the GOP will be able to be highly competitive in all the races that hold some promise - PA, CA, IL, CT, CO, NV and AR. But with polls showing Democratic incumbents slipping in all of these states, it is looking increasingly certain that at least some of these races will be hotly contested.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • All good things must come to an end

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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