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SUSA complements primary polls with avalanche of general election surveys

Published
by
Taniel
on March 21, 2008
in AL-Pres, CA-Pres, KS-Pres, MA-Pres, MN-Pres, NM-Pres, OR-Pres, PA-Dem, VA-Pres, WA-Pres, WI-Pres and WV-Dem
. 6 Comments
  • Primary polls have Clinton up in two key states

Two primary surveys released today point to Hillary Clinton’s advantage in some upcoming states, including a surprisingly big lead in a state that is supposed to be closer:

  • In Pennsylvania, Franklin & Marshall released a survey showing Clinton leading 51% to 35%. This is an improvement for the New York Senator, who led 44% to 32% in the group’s previous poll.
  • The favorability ratings of both candidates are also very instructive. In the past month, Obama has gone from 57-16 to 47-25, a significant plunge (and this is among Democratic voters only), while Clinton is still viewed favorably by 65% and unfavorably by 18%.
  • In West Virginia, Rasmussen released a poll today showing Clinton up 2:1, 55% to 27%. West Virginia votes on May 13th.

Rasmussen’s survey is the first poll we have seen from West Virginia, so it is clearly a relief for Hillary to see that she is so favored in the state, which was not necessarily a given. As for Pennsylvania, Clinton’s has been steadily increasing her baseline double-digit lead since March 4th to the extent that a 16% lead almost looks disappointing for her right now.

  • General election: McCain picks up ground but Obama holds his own

Following the string of 9 catastrophic general election polls released yesterday (including three from SUSA in OH, KY and MO), today’s delivery of general election surveys is almost a relief for Democrats, as it can reassure them that they have yet to lose all the advantages they had amassed in the past few months. And SUSA followed up yesterday’s releases with an avalanche of polls today, many of which were less dramatic for Obama.

We’ll look more at the detail of the swing state surveys:

  • In New Mexico, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain 51% to 45%. That’s a six point improvement for Clinton in the past two weeks and a one point decline for Obama.
  • Obama gets much more cross-over Republicans, Clinton more independents. And Clinton does better among Hispanics, 65% to Obama’s 56%.
  • Great number for Democrats in the traditionally red state of Virginia, where Obama edges McCain 48% to 47% and where Clinton ties him at 47%. That’s a 10 point improvement for Clinton and a one point improvement for Obama over the past two weeks.
  • Obama is slightly stronger than Clinton among independents and Republicans, and weaker among Democrats. Clinton is also weak among black voters (63% only, versus 84% for Obama).
  • In Minnesota, Clinton leads McCain 49% to 46% but the Republican edges out Obama 47% to 46%. That’s an 8 point decline for Obama and a 1 point decline for Clinton.
  • In Iowa, it’s the inverse: Obama leads McCain 50% to 44% but McCain leads Clinton 48% to 44%. That’s a one point improvement for Clinton and a three point decline for Obama.
  • The difference is among Republicans (Obama gets 14% and Clinton 5%) and among independents (Obama leads by 12, Clinton trails by 2).
  • In Wisconsin, the race is also very tight: Clinton edges out McCain 45% to 44% and Obama beats him 48% to 44%. That’s a 3% decline for Clinton and a 7% decline for Obama.
  • There are here again noteworthy differences: Obama leads independents by 2% but Clinton trails by 19%. Clinton balances that by her strength among Democrats, 85% versus 74% for Obama.
  • In Washington, Clinton is ahead 50% to 45% and Obama 52% to 41%. That’s a significant improvement for Hillary who trailed in the state three weeks ago.
  • In Oregon, Clinton leads 5o% to 44% and Obama 5o% to 41%. That’s also a significant shift in Clinton’s favor as she was led by 5% three weeks ago. Generally Clinton has had trouble in WA and OR, so it is good for her to be ahead in both.
  • And then there is Massachusetts which is competitive even though it should not be: Clinton leads 55% to 42% and McCain manages the stunning feat of tying Obama at 47%. There have been many polls that have shown Obama in trouble in this blue state. Obama trails among independents and only gets 66% among Democrats in what represents a 7% decline for him in the past 2 weeks.
  • We also got a MA poll from Rasmussen, pointing to a more positive picture for Dems: Clinton leads 54% to 35% and Obama 49% to 42%. Even that is too close for comfort for Obama.

We also got a number of polls from less competitive states:

  • In California, Clinton is up 56% to 38% and Obama 54% to 40% — that’s a 3% improvement for Obama and 6% for Clinton, though she only gets 64% of black voters, while Obama is a bit weaker among both Democrats and Hispanics.
  • In Alabama, McCain crushes Clinton 56% to 38% and Obama 62% to 35%, a 13% decline for Barack in 2 weeks. Obama gets 62% of Democrats, Clinton 64% of blacks.
  • In Kansas, McCain leads Obama by only 51% to 39%. Clinton is trailing 55% to 36%.
  • In New York, Obama is only up single-digits, 52% to 44% (a 6% decline). Clinton leads 54% to 41%.

The last poll I will cite is CBS’s national poll that has Obama up 48% to 43% and Clinton up 46% to 44%. Worth noting that McCain was trailing by 12% against Obama last month, so this is actually a positive trendline for him — though he clearly trails.

All candidates have good news in those polls: McCain is generally strengthening his position, Clinton is as well and while Obama is on the decline in most states he remains in a very strong position in a number of key contests (Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, for example, all states won by Bush in 2004). Contrary to yesterday’s 9 polls, these general election surveys point to are balancing from the polling excesses of the end of February: At the height of Obamania, Clinton was constantly distanced in polls and Obama was riding high. Now, the latter is back down to more normal levels and Clinton is back up to where she likely
always truly was.

More polls, with a bunch of general election numbers

Published
by
Taniel
on February 21, 2008
in IA-Pres, KS-Pres, NJ-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Dem, PA-Pres, TX-Dem and VA-Pres
. 0 Comments

First, news came today that Obama has won his eleventh contest in a row, that of the Democrats Abroad, 66% to 33%. Obama narrowly won Mexico and Clinton narrowly won Israel; Western Europe went big for Obama. That gives Obama 2.5 delegates to Clinton’s 2 (there were 9 delegates at stake, and they split 5-4, but each only has half-a-vote at the convention, thereby complicating matters with half delegates).

Meanwhile, ABC/Washington Post just came out with two polls from Ohio and Texas, confirming that the trendlines are not favoring Clinton at all and that Obama has a good chance of taking one — if not both — of these states, likely putting an end then to the Democratic contest. The fact that Texas in particular is so close (as it is in three polls released earlier this afternoon that I blogged about here) makes tonight’s and next week’s debates that much more important:

  • In Texas, Clinton edges out Obama 48% to 47%. No internals are provided, but the WaPo does specify that Latinos are powering Clinton through here.
  • In Ohio, Clinton stays more comfortably ahead, 50% to 43%.

These numbers speak for themselves, and my last post already delves into the primary and the dynamics in the run-up to March 4th; so I am going to jump straight to the latest general election numbers, for we have a few from different pollsters:

  • Firs, a poll from New York. SUSA shows Clinton leading McCain by 11%, 52% to 41%; but it is Obama who fares best — 57% to 36%. Most Northeast polls have usually shown Obama weaker than Clinton, and it is obviously a surprise to see the New York Senator being outperformed in her home state.

  • In Pennsylvania, things are too close for comfort for both Democrats in a must-win state. That same Franklin & Marshall College survey that showed Clinton ahead of Obama in the primary this morning also released general election numbers: Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%, and McCain is edging out Obama 44% to 43%.
  • SUSA also released a poll from Kansas that shows the state semi-competitive if Obama is the candidate, as he trails McCain 50% to 44%. Clinton is trounced, 59% to 35%. In SUSA’s January Kansas poll, Clinton trailed by 13% and Obama by 14% — so the two are stuck in very divergent trendlines.
  • Next we have two polls from Rasmussen, the first of which comes from Virginia, where McCain holds off both Clinton (51% to 41%) and Obama (49% to 44%). SUSA’s Virginia poll the other day had Obama slightly ahead.
  • In Iowa, meanwhile, Obama is barely ahead, 44% to 41%, while Hillary is far behind, 47% to 37%.
  • Finally, the Quinnipiac poll from New Jersey has both Democrats leading McCain in single-digits, 47% to 41% for Hillary, 46% to 39% for Obama.

This New Jersey poll is a perfect summary of the strength of the two candidates and what they each bring to a match-up against McCain. Clinton does better among Democrats (80-10, versus 72-15 for Obama); Obama does better among independents (leading 47-38, while Clinton trails 44-43) and African-Americans (87-6 versus 75-13 for Clinton).

Both candidates would have to work really hard to complete this coalition and to win the race, and their weakest points have interestingly enough been groups among which they are also weak in the primary, so this is not just a small problem they can expect to get resolved in a few days.

Also worth noting is how clearly Obama has gone up in the past month and Clinton has gone down, for example in the Kansas poll that has Obama gaining 7% and Clinton went down 14%. The same trend is obvious in many surveys and in national trackings like Rasmussen’s daily numbers.

Catching up on some forgotten polls

Published
by
Taniel
on January 20, 2008
in AL-Pres, CA-GOP, KS-Pres, MA-Dem, MA-Gop and VA-Pres
. 5 Comments

With the January 19th craziness behind us, it’s time to catch up on a few polls that were forgotten because of the focus on South Carolina and Nevada. And the first of these is a Rasmussen poll of California’s GOP primary that was released mid-week (the Democratic numbers have already been blogged):

  • McCain is ahead with 24%, followed by Romney’s 17%, Huckabe’s 13%, Thompson’s 13% and Giuliani’s 11%.

This is obviously very significant given that California will be the biggest prize on February 5th. Giuliani was long crushing the field here, and his collapse to fifth-place is that much more significant. The trouble for McCain’s opponents is that numbers in states like California, Illinois and New York are likely to start reflecting national numbers given how huge those states are, and McCain has an unmistakable advantage there. And a win here would be particularly impressive for the Arizona Senator given that California is a closed primary (just like Florida), and McCain has not been doing that well among registered Republicans for now.

Second, we get a primary poll from Massachusetts by SUSA released on Thursday. MA is voting on February 5th and awards many delegates, particularly on the Democratic side, so these numbers are particularly important.

  • On the GOP side, it looks like Romney will manage to hold on to his home-state. He defeats McCain 48% to 34%, with Giuliani at 8%.
  • Among Democrats, Clinton crushes the field on the strength of a 42% lead among women (!). She gets 56% to Obama’s 23% and Edwards’s 14%.

Keep in mind that general election polls in MA have shown Romney much weaker than Giuliani and McCain, leading questions as to whether he would get any home-state effect in the GOP primary here. It would certainly be humiliating for him to lose the state. Second, MA is not generally considered to be in Clinton’s home-state region (as NY, NJ and CT are), so she would certainly be able to spin a big victory here as a success and she would get a big delegate advantage if she keeps up this lead. But odds are the numbers will tighten at least to some degree when campaigning picks up.

Second, we have a wave of general elections polls released by SUSA on Friday of three states that went bif for Bush in 2000 and 2004. This time, Virginia and Kansas show more than competitive Democrats, though Alabama is firmly anchored in the Republican camp. But in all three polls, McCain runs about 15% stronger than his Republican rivals, underscoring just how consistently better the new GOP front-runner is polling in general election polls:

  • Virginia looks like a very promising state for Democrats, and this poll has Clinton and Obama leading Giuliani (50-44 and 46-45 respectively), Romney (51-43 and 48-44) and Huckabee (50-43 and 49-44).
  • And now take a look at McCain’s numbers, who crushes Clinton 52% to 43% and Obama 52% to 40%.

  • The scenario is the same in Kansas, a state Bush won by a massive 26%! Clinton manages to lead Giuliani 48% to 42% though Obama narrowly trails him 45% to 43%. The same is true against Huckabee (47-46 Clinton and 44-46 Obama), and both Democrats leadagainst Romney.
  • But McCain handily defeats both Democrats 53% to 40% against Clinton and 53% to 39% against Obama. Notice that McCain’s margins are still half of what Bush won by in 2004, but they have got to be disappointing for Democrats after seeing how weakly the other GOPers run.

  • Alabama, another state Bush won by 26%, looks better for Republicans. Giuliani beats both Clinton and Obama (50-42 against Clinton and 55-34 against Obama), so does Romney (52-42 and 56-34) and Huckabee (55-40 and 59-32) But here again McCain manages to run even better: He defeats Clinton 58% to 37% and Obama63% to 29%. Notice also how much better than Obama Clinton is faring in this poll.

Two thoughts here. First, Democrats obviously need none of these states to win the 2008 elections. But if McCain becomes the GOP nominee, the polls that are going to come out from states like VA and KY are suddenly going to look much worse for Democrats than they have grown used to in the past few months, and Republicans will be able to be much less worried about losing red states like this. And while there is no telling whether McCain will prove to be the most electable of candidates down the line, the fact that he runs so much better so consistently says something.

Second, Hillary does run better in all three states than Barack. Keep in mind that this is a dynamic we are very much used to: Clinton almost always polls much better in red states like these and in the South, where she rallies much more of the Democratic base; Obama, on the other hand, tends to do better in other areas, especially out West.

SUSA comes out with 7 general election polls: Dems strong in VA and KY, and McCain as solid as always

Published
by
Taniel
on December 21, 2007
in AL-Pres, CA-Pres, KS-Pres, KY-Pres, MA-Pres, NY-Pres and VA-Pres
. 4 Comments

Everyone obsessively tries to compare the electability of the different Democratic candidates, which I’ve tried to argue over and over again is an absurd exercise because there is no coherent data. There are dozens of polls showing Hillary more competitive than Obama and vice-versa. The one thing that holds consistently is Clinton running better in the South/deep red states. Why is no one talking about electability in the GOP race? The data here is very consistent: McCain is the best Republican to save the GOP from an electoral disaster. That may not be true down the line, but since we’re basing ourselves on current perception and current polls, most of them remarkably show McCain running stronger than the other GOPers.

Today’s massive SUSA poll release is an ideal example. Apparently looking to release as many polls as is humanly possible before Christmas, SUSA came out with seven general election polls last night and this morning. The main lessons: Democrats (almost) sweep Virginia, remain competitive in Kentucky, but Obama would have trouble holding New York or Massachusetts against McCain or Giuliani, and McCain is (by far) the most competitive general election candidate.

First up then, Virginia — which is probably the most interesting poll:

  • Hillary Clinton demolishes all GOPers: 52% to 42%, Romney 53% to 40%, Huckabee 54% to 40%. McCain keeps it a toss-up, 48-46.
  • It’s closer with Obama, who beats Rudy 48-45, Romney 50-43 and Huckabee 51-42. But McCain comes out on top 50-44.

This confirms previous polls that have had Democrats leading in Virginia, and it is a marked improvement from SUSA’s last poll from the state. Remember: No Democrat has won Virginia since 1964 — though Kerry held Bush to 9% in 2004. And the state has 13 EVs. If Democrats get it and a state like Iowa, they wouldn’t even need to win Florida or Ohio.

The second state which has had Democrats strong throughout the fall — and surprisingly so, is Kentucky:

  • McCain is the only candidate to beat Clinton, 50% to 44%.
  • Clinton comes out on top against Giuliani 47-45, Romney 48-44 and Huckabee 47-46.
  • Obama, however, is demolished by all Republicans: 50-40 against Rudy, 46-40 against Romney, 51-38 against Huck, and 53-35 against McCain.

Kentucky has been one of the states that has the most consistently shown a blue drift in presidential polls over the past few months — in a state Bush won by 20 points in 2004. The previous poll from SUSA had Democrats a tiny bit stronger, but this survey can in no way be consider an outlier: Obama might be weak here, but Clinton’s competitiveness shows Democrats have a huge opening here.

A lot of this is due to the local situation in Kentucky, which is more toxic for the GOP than in other places due to the ethical trouble the state party was in that led to the ouster last month of Governor Fletcher. However stunning it might be, Republicans will have to prepare for Kentucky and its eight electoral votes emerging as a very unlikely battleground state in 2008. (In case you’re wondering, Kentucky and Virginia together would give Democrats a victory,if combined with all the Kerry states).

SUSA then has polls from three of the most reliable blue states in the country — NY, CA and MA:

  • In California, Democrats never tremble and have some massive leads. Clinton demolishes Rudy 58-36 and even McCain 57 to 38. Obamais a bit weaker but he stays within double-digits: McCain holds him 52-39, but Obama gets 56-36 against Giuliani.

  • New York is a bit more interesting: Rudy Giuliani gets Clinton down to… 55% (to 40%) and locks Obama in a toss-up in his home state (48% to 46%). McCain is also very competitive against Obama: 47% to 43%, but stands no chance against Clinton: 57% to 37%.
  • The Democrats demolish the two other GOPers: Clinton hits 60% and 59% against Romney and Huckabee, while Obama beats them both 54-36.

  • Finally Massachusetts, where Clinton crushes Rudy 57-37, Romney 60-34, and Huck 63-30, but beats McCain only 53-43.
  • Obama stays on top but sometimes with difficulty: He crushes Romney 55-36, Huck 60-28, but it’s only 50-41 against Giuliani… and a 47-45 toss-up with McCain.

Don’t forget that Massachusetts is the state of which Romney was governor — so he has no excuse for his stunning weakness there. Clearly, McCain has the potential to put very blue states in play, which is supposed to be Rudy’s central campaign argument. Why is no one pointing out how BS Rudy’s electability appeal is when McCain does as well as him in New York — Rudy’s home state — and up stages him in Massachusetts? It goes without saying, naturally, that no Democrat will be elected in 2008 without carrying New York (and certainly also Massachusetts). So however much Democrats stay in a great position now, they should be afraid of McCain.

And SUSA closes it off with two polls from red states: Alabama and Kansas. The previous polls from these states by SUSA had Clinton very very competitive in states that Bush won more than overwhelmingly. Democrats today stay competitive: the GOP has the upper-hand, but remember how less than red than normal these states are performing (Bush won Kansas with 62%

  • First up, Alabama, where Clinton holds all GOPers to single-digits: 49% to 42% against Rudy, 49-44 versus Huck and 50-43 versus McCain. She forces Romney into a toss-up 46-45.
  • Republicans perform better against Obama, who holds Romney in single digits 48-39 but is then crushed by the the three others — 54-36 by McCain and 52-36 by Giuliani.

  • In Kansas, Giuliani leads Clinton 51-39 and Obama 52-38. McCain does better, 58-35 against Clinton and 56-36 against Obama. Huckabee leads a bit more weakly, but it is Romney who has trouble: ahead of Clinton 49-43 and of Obama 44-43.

Democrats did better in last month’s SUSA poll where they led four out of eight match-ups, but the bottom line is that McCain is the only candidate not massively under=performing on his party’s strength.

Morning polls, and lots of them: Colorado is a toss-up

Published
by
Taniel
on December 4, 2007
in AZ-Pres, CO-Pres, CO-Sen and KS-Pres
. 5 Comments
  • Colorado’s Senate seat: Definitely a toss-up

We had seen some polls starting in September showing Mark Udall and Bob Shaffer in a toss-up in the open Colorado Senate seat; but most of them were internal polls, so I had left the race ranked “lean take-over” in my Senate rankings. But the latest poll from Rasmussen makes it more difficult to do so: Shaffer gets 42% and Udall 41%.

The SUSA poll from November 5th had Udall up 48% to 41% but there is now too much evidence that Bob Shaffer is keeping things much more competitive than expected in Colorado. Given what happened in 2006, where relatively unknown Democrat Ritter broke ahead of GOP star Beauprez early and never looked back, most people were expecting the same thing to happen here — but it looks like the GOP is getting a break in the state and has a real chance of holding it. The question is: will they put choose to fight here when they might have so many other endangered seats to protect?

  • Rasmussen polls Arizona, Colorado and Kansas’s general election

Rasmussen also came out with some presidential polls from three states that Bush won comfortably in 2004. Republicans look to be ahead in all three — though Clinton gets decent showings:

  • In Colorado, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani beat Hillary Clinton 44% to 40%.
  • Hillary is behind Mike Huckabee 42% to 41% but she leads Mitt Romney 43% to 40%.
  • In Arizona, McCain’s home state, he crushes all three Democrats: 57% to 34% against Clinton, 55% to 33% against Obama, and 56% to 30% against Edwards.
  • Clinton is a bit stronger against other GOPers, though she still laggs behind: 47% to 38% against Giuliani, 45% to 41% against Romney.
  • Finally, Kansas, a state Bush won with 62% in 2004. Clinton is distanced, but she keeps all Republicans but McCain who leads her 55% to 32%.
  • Giuliani is ahead 49% to 36%, Romney 47% to 35%, and Huckabee 47% to 38%.

Another poll from Kansas released a week ago showed Democrats a bit more competitive, but the bottom line was the same: McCain crushed both Obama and Clinton, but Giuliani barely mustered a 5% lead against both — and Clinton and Obama both led against Romney.

Clearly these 3 polls have no particular good news for Clinton, but they at least reinforce the fact that she would in no way be destroyed in those red states the NYT claims she would drown in.

  • California’s initiative could pass

SUSA asked voters in California whether all of CA’s 55 votes should go to the winner, or whether they should be divided between different candidates in a new poll released yesterday. 35% said winner-take-all, and 47% answered divided. This certainly suggests that there is the potential that the electoral vote initiative prepared by GOP activists could pass.

But, the poll is also certainly not bad news for Democrats. SUSA did not ask this in the form of electoral intentions on an initiative; it was asked as a policy question. The “yes” has to be strongly above 50% from the start in polling of referendums for the initiative to be able to pass; that is even more true when the poll only asks it as a principle. When voters have to look at a specific proposal, the “no” goes up significantly. In 2005, California voters had to decide whether to give the redistricting process to independent judges rather than to the legislature. While most agreed with the principle, the measure was likely perceived to have the potential to hurt Democrats — and it failed.

Presidential diary: Kansas swinging, and primaries becoming increasingly heated

Published
by
Taniel
on November 26, 2007
in KS-Pres
. 14 Comments
  • Even Kansas?

Add Kansas to the list of states that are unexpectedly close heading in 2008. Bush won the state 62% to 37% for Kerry in 2004, but things appear very different today in a new SUSA poll:

  • McCain is the only Republican to convincingly crush both Clinton (55% to 38%) and Obama (53% to 37%). Giuliani leads both Democrats, but he struggles and his lead is in the low single-digits: 49% to 43% against Clinton, 47% to 42% against Obama.
  • The Democrats lead the four other match-ups tested by SUSA. Clinton is up 48% to 44% against Romney, and 49% to 43% against Huckabee; Obama leads Romney 46% to 43% and Huckabee 47% to 41%.

This is also a stunning improvement from last month’s numbers in which Clinton even trailed Ron Paul, and it suggests Clinton’s competitiveness in Kansas should be confirmed by other polls. But given the consistency of her leads in places like Kentucky (see this recent poll), there is ample evidence to suggest this Kansas poll should be believed.

Of course, Kansas is a small state with 6 electoral votes… but if the GOP candidate has to spend time campaigning in states like Kansas and run ads here, you can be sure the situation must be much worse in states like Missouri or Ohio.

  • Primary rhetoric heating up

The two Democratic front-runners are starting to go at it much more directly than we have seen them yet. The two campaigns have been fighting on the experience mantra recently, with Clinton questioning whether Obama’s attending elementary school in a foreign country counted as foreign policy experience. And in a new Nightline interview on ABC, Obama went after what Clinton presents as her main claim to experience, her years in the White House:

There is no doubt that Bill Clinton had faith in her and consulted with her on issues, in the same way that I would consult with Michelle, if there were issues. On the other hand, I don’t think Michelle would claim that she is the best qualified person to be a U.S. senator by virtue of me talking to her on occasion about the work I’ve done.

I do believe we had not heard Clinton’s experience challenged so directly before. We have clearly entered a new phase of the campaign in which both campaigns know everything is at stake on January 3rd and Clinton’s opponents are not going to give her a second to breath. We have to question, however, why Obama is choosing the experience angle to attack. Even if he undermines Clinton’s argument, his own pitch is not at all based on experience, but on the need to change the partisan Washington establishment. For Obama to charge on what is supposed to be his weak subject suggests he is confident Clinton is vulnerable on this one. His criticism is also a bit misleading, for Hillary had a policy position in the Clinton White House, something Michelle Obama does not have (as far as we know!) in Obama’s Senate office.

Meanwhile, a similar heating up is occurring in the GOP primary. Yesterday, Mike Huckabee upped his attacks on Mitt Romney, pointing out that he is a much more consistent conservative than the former Massachusetts governor:

Mitt has changed his position. He’s been all over the board. But my conservatism has been consistent. When he was pro-abortion, I was still pro-life and always have been. When he was for gun control, I was against it. When he was against the Bush tax cuts, I was for them. When he was against Ronald Reagan’s legacy and said he wasn’t part of that Bush-Reagan thing, I was a part of that Bush-Reagan thing.

With the Iowa caucuses fast approaching, Huckabee is looking to overtake Romney’s lead — but that will require Huckabee to cement his position as the leading conservative to hold on to his social conservative base and take some of Romney’s voters. And other candidates are also looking to bring Romney down, which could certainly help Huckabee’s cause.

Rudy Giuliani seems especially intent to switch his focus from Clinton to Romney as the two campaigns fought all week-end. Giuliani also talked to the Politico in an interview that is all about the need to “take the mask off and take a look at what kind of governor was he.” Giuliani said, “He throws stones at people. And then on that issue he usually has a worse record than whoever he’s throwing stones at.” He went on to emphasize Romney’s poor record and poor ideas on health care, environment and taxes. Romney naturally fought back, hitting on Giuliani’s own record: “When he came in there was a budget gap, but when he left, he left a budget gap twice as big as the one he inherited: over three billion dollars.”

These are all arguments we have been hearing for months now, but usually voiced by surrogates and never so directly. With 40 more days before Iowa, the campaigns have little time to topple Romney in the early states… and it will become increasingly difficult for Mitt Romney to sustain all this criticism that is concentrating on him. Romney is in a position Howard Dean was in 4 years ago, though with a few key differences that could save him (such as his ability to spend his own money, the fact that his Iowa lead was prior and stronger to his New Hampshire lead).