Archive for the 'KS-Gov' Category

Weekly update: Besides the IN confusion, KS Dems hope they’ve finally found someone to field

Published
by
Taniel
on February 21, 2010
in CA-Sen, IA-Gov, KS-Gov, MN-Gov, NC-Sen and RI-Gov
. 16 Comments

The week started in unexpectedly dramatic fashion when Senator Evan Bayh drove a stake to the DSCC’s hopes of not having to also worry about Indiana; it should also lead to an additional open seat in the House - though we won’t know that for sure until the Democratic party committee taps a replacement for Bayh. Another state with important developments this week was Ohio, which became the 8th state to move past its filing deadline, as I wrote about yesterday.

But forget Evan Bayh: The biggest shocker of the cycle is that Democrats are landing statewide candidates in Kansas! State Senator Tom Holland announced this week that he would take on Senator Sam Brownback in the Governor’s race, giving Democrats hope of at least pulling off a decent showing at the head of the ticket  (that could have repercussions down-ballot). While Holland is the heavy underdog, Democrats are quick to note that he beat two Republican incumbents in 2002 and in 2008 to first be elected to the state House and the state Senate. The party will also milk the one advantage its candidate will have in these difficult circumstances: attack Brownback for practicing “Washington-style politics” while touting Holland’s local roots. “He hasn’t been in Washington for 16 years, he’s been here - building a business, raising his family and serving his community,” said Lieut. Gov. Troy Findley.

Democrats are also hopeful that Holland will inspire state Senator David Haley to jump in the open Senate race, where they currently have no candidate. Since the GOP nominee will be a U.S. House member, this could help the party use the same template in both statewide races, but more on this if Haley actually pulls the trigger.

In California, Senator Diane Feinstein finally put the speculation to rest for good as she closed the door to a gubernatorial run without allowing herself any hedges. This confirms what we have known since the fall: Attorney General Jerry Brown faces no real competition for the Democratic nomination, which few people could have expected as the cycle started given how many ambitious politicians California has. I do think the party could have positioned itself better for the general election; not only can Brown be attacked for being the consummate insider, but how credibly can he propose to fix the state’s terrible fiscal situation given his responsibility in the passage and implementation of Prop 13? In other statewide news, San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, last seen dropping out of the Governor’s race, prepared himself to run for Lieutenant Governor, a surprising move given that the job doesn’t have any real power as opposed to being mayor of a major city.

In Minnesota, the once very large GOP field has now been reduced to just three candidates as state Senator David Hann became the fifth candidate to drop out. That leaves state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Tom Emmer and former state Rep. Bill Haas as the only politicians seeking the Republican nod, with Seifert and Emmer looking like the clear front-runners ever since Norm Coleman passed on the race. Hann’s withdrawal could help Emmer, as both men represent Hennepin County while Seifert is from Southwestern Minnesota, though ultimately this could matter little since the nomination should be decided at a convention at which I believe a candidate needs 50% of delegates. (I wrote more about Minnesota last month.)

In North Carolina, there is now a fourth candidate seeking the Democratic nomination: Marcus Williams, an attorney from Lumberton. While he would not appear to be a threat to win the nomination, he could pull a significant share of the vote: In the 2008 Senate primary, he received an impressive 13% of the vote (more than 170,000 votes) and won more counties than Jim Neal despite the fact that the latter’s challenge to Kay Hagan won more attention nationwide. If Williams can once again draw a substantial share of the vote, it could help Elaine Marshall by making it difficult for one of her rivals to differentiate himself and get momentum - but it could also ensure that no candidate tops 50% in the May 4th first round. [Correction: In NC, a candidate needs to get only 40% to clinch the nomination in the first round. That diminishes the possibility Williams's entry to prevent Marshall from avoiding a runoff, while the point about his fracturing the field too much for one candidate to catch-up remains valid.]

In Iowa, one of the four Republican candidates dropped out of the Governor’s race: state Rep. Bob Rants, who served as the state’s Speaker between 2003 and 2006. This leaves former Governor Terry Branstad, Bob Vander Plaats and state Rep. Rod Roberts. Rants’ withdrawal improves Vander Plaats’s odds of pulling an upset against Branstad but potentially helping him coalesce the support of conservatives, over which the two men were competing (Rants for instance said that he would veto every single bill that comes out of the state legislature, including the budget, until both chambers vote on a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage). After all, while Branstad has had problem with his right flank throughout his decades in politics, he is too formidable a candidate to envision him losing in a crowded field with numerous conservative candidates.

In Rhode Island, it long looked like no one wanted the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination but there is now a second candidate in the race: former state Rep. Victor Moffitt while go after John Robitaille, the incumbent Governor’s communications director. Neither can be sure to be a competitive general election nominee, but the more state Republicans get invested in their nominee the harder it could be for the now-independent Lincoln Chaffee to pull out a victory in a 3-way race.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the retirement and race-by-race pages. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

New open seats Senator Evan Bayh (D, Indiana)
Will not retire Rep. Pat Tiberi (R, OH-12)
Rep. Bill Young (R, FL-10)
Added to retirement watch Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D, IN-08)

Next, the recruitment page:

AZ-Sen, GOP Chris Simcox dropped out
IN-Sen, Dem Rep. Joe Donnelly added to list
Rep. Brad Ellsworth wants the Dem nod
Rep. Baron Hill added to list
Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott wants the Dem nod
businesswoman Bren Simon added to list
state Senate Minority Leader Vi Simpson ruled out run
Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel ruled out run
IN-Sen, GOP Don Bates Jr is running
plumbing company owner Richard Behney is running
Governor Mitch Daniels will not run
KS-Sen, Dem state Senator David Haley added to list
NC-Sen, Dem attorney Marcus Williams announced run
OH-Sen, GOP Charlena Renee Bradley is running
Traci Johnson is running
OH-Sen, GOP car dealer Tom Ganley dropped out

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CA-Gov, Dem Senator Dianne Feinstein will not run
IA-Gov, GOP state Rep. Chris Rants dropped out
KS-Gov, Dem state Senator Tom Holland is running
MI-Gov, Dem former Treasurer Robert Bowman will not run
county Treasurer Dan Kildee formed exploratory committee
MN-Gov, Dem state Senator David Hann dropped out
NE-Gov, Dem agribusiness executive Mark Lakers added
PA-Gov, Dem Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty dropped out
RI-Gov, GOP former state Rep. Victor Moffitt announced run
SC-Gov, Dem Mullins McLeod dropped out

Weekly 2010 update: Brace yourself, for someone is willing to run as a Dem in Kansas

Published
by
Taniel
on November 23, 2009
in KS-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 16 Comments

Days after rumors erupted around Rudy Giuliani’s 2010 intentions, we have yet to receive any confirmation that the former New York City Mayor has indeed pulled the plug on the gubernatorial run and is preparing to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand; for all it’s worth, The Village Voice is now contradicting The Daily News and the AP to report that Giuliani will not run. Yet, that we are even talking about that possibility underscores the fact that the NRSC is still in a position to pull of formidable recruitment coups that would dramatically alter the Senate landscape: This past week also saw former Governor Tommy Thompson open the door to running in Wisconsin, as well as an increase in the buzz that North Dakota Governor John Hoeven might challenge Byron Dorgon.

In Kansas, Democrats finally have a candidate in the gubernatorial race: Tom Wiggans, a retired pharmaceutical executive. That the state party sounds very eager to embrace him speaks to how desperate they have gotten. Indeed, it looks unlikely that Wiggans (a political novice who spent his career in California before moving back to Kansas this January) can be much of a match for Senator Sam Brownback, the presumptive Republican nominee. While the fact that he has donated a lot of money to GOP candidates might not hurt him, what could is that he primarily looked interested in building connections with his donations: In 2008, he donated to the presidential campaigns of Obama, Giuliani, Romney and McCain.

On the other hand, Wiggans has two things going for him. First, he should be able to self-fund his campaign, which is all Democrats are looking for at this point. Second, Democrats are betting that, in the current anti-establishment context, the contrast between his business experience and Brownback’s service in the federal government will appeal to the state’s independent voters.

In Wyoming, Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal has yet to announce whether he will challenge the state’s term-limit law, but the GOP is already getting organized. Two have already announced - former state Rep. Ron Micheli and House Speaker Colin Simpson - and a third just walked into the race: Matt Mead, who served as U.S. Attorney from 2001 to 2007, formed an exploratory committee. By my count, this makes him the fourth Republican U.S. attorney to seek political office this cycle (Chris Christie, Tim Griffin, Pat Meehan are the others), so keep an eye on the people Barack Obama is currently appointing: We might hear about them in the 2014 or 2016 cycles.

Finally, Maine looks to be competing with Minnesota for the title of most crowded gubernatorial race: former Speaker John Richardson announced this week that he would run for the Democratic nomination, joining a long list of credible contenders (former AG Rowe, state Senate President Elizabeth Mitchell, businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli and still others all have a credible path to the nomination). On the Republican side, no one new jumped in the race this week but I had missed state Senator Peter Mills’ candidacy announcement from a while ago; Mills, who got 35% in the GOP’s 2006 primary, joins two wealthy businessmen and still other candidates.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire No one

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

KY-Sen, GOP former Ambassador Cathy Bailey added to list
NC-Sen, Dem former LG Dennis Wicker will not run
NH-Sen, GOP businessman Sean Mahoney will not run
WI-Sen, GOP former Governor Tommy Thompson added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

KS-Gov, Dem retired businessman Tom Wiggans is running
ME-Gov, Dem former Mayor Donna Dion is running
State Conservation Commissioner Patrick McGowan added
former Speaker John Richardson announced run
Rosa Scarcelli is running
ME-Gov, GOP Waterville Mayor Paul LePage is running
state Senator Peter Mills is running
MN-Gov, GOP state Sen. Paul Koering dropped out (in August)
NY-Gov, GOP Rudy Giuliani reportedly will not run
OR-Gov, Dem former Hewlett-Packard VP Steve Shields dropped out
PA-Gov, GOP National Guardsman Robert Mansfield announced run
WI-Gov, Dem Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett announced run
WY-Gov, GOP former US Attorney Matt Mead: exploratory committee
former state Rep. Ron Micheli is runnin

Klein, Thornburgh and Williams ruled out statewide runs

Published
by
Taniel
on June 16, 2009
in FL-22, FL-Sen, KS-Gov and KY-Sen
. 0 Comments

Thornburgh leaves Brownback in charge of Kansas

In somewhat of a surprise move, four-term Republican Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh dropped out of Kansas’s gubernatorial race, making Senator Sam Brownback not only the presumptive Republican nominee but also the overwhelming favorite to win the Governor’s Mansion.

Indeed, Brownback won’t have to face too serious an opponent in the general election either: Democrats have been more busy sabotaging themselves than recruiting a viable candidate. State Senator Chris Steineger is now running for the Democratic nomination, but the lawmaker with a strained relationship with his party should not provide much of a challenge for Brownback.

To the extent that Democrats had any hope of retaining this governorship, their only chance was for Republicans to devolve in ideological warfare and damage their general election prospects. (While Brownback is one of the conservative movement’s leading figures, Thornburgh has a more moderate reputation.) With the Senator now sure to coast to the GOP nomination, he should face no trouble uniting the vote of Republican-leaning voters - enough to win a statewide race in Kansas.

For those who have no interest in Kansas politics, don’t forget that Brownback ran for president in 2008. His attempt to emerge as the conservative champion fell flat when Huckabee rose, but he would be in a better position to try again in 2012 or 2016 having executive experience under his belt.

Klein is not interested in challenging Crist

Democratic Rep. Ron Klein has been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate ever since the seat opened up. But given the fact that he was not sounding too enthusiastic before Charlie Crist entered the race, it became very unlikely that he would be interested in running after the Governor’s entrance. Yesterday, Klein finally made it official that he would not be running by announcing that he was endorsing Kendrick Meek’s bid.

With Klein’s exit, the only obstacle to Meek’s nomination is Rep. Corrine Brown, who formed an exploratory committee a few weeks ago. Yet, Meek has been building an unexpectedly formidable campaign since the beginning of the year, collecting prominent endorsements and raising enough money to position himself as the clear front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Klein’s support only solidifies Meek’s standing and serves as a reminder that Brown should get in the race very quickly if she wants to mount a credible campaign.

Klein’s decision also has resonance at the House level. FL-22 is a swing district, so an open seat race would have been hotly contested. The DCCC now doesn’t have to worry about the district, though it is still possible that Klein faces a competitive re-election race. (The race is rated potentially competitive in my latest ratings.)

David Williams leaves Bunning alone

Finally, a Republican who isn’t looking to make Jim Bunning’s life miserable! State Senate President David Williams, whose name we first heard when the NRSC’s meeting with Williams prompted Bunning to get enraged, just announced that he would be running for re-election rather than mounting preparations for a Senate run.

Interestingly, Williams also gave the Senator the ultimate political gift: He expressed his belief that Bunning would not retire - something few if any Republicans are willing to do. “I think Jim Bunning is going to continue to run,” he said. I’m sure I don’t have to remind you the general election significance of whether he retires; so will he or won’t he? I’ve long believed the former; yet, the last time we checked in, Bunning looked so cornered by his Republican critics that I found it hard to see how he could survive.

Might Williams’s decision alleviate the pressure? If he feels like he can easily coast to the Republican nomination despite the NRSC’s hostility, how likely would he be to quit? Secretary of State Trey Grayson is positioning himself to run if the Senator retires, but he probably has too many ties to Bunning for him to pull the trigger on a primary challenge - though he certainly has not been holding back from putting pressure on the Senate to retire.

It’s unclear whether Williams ruled out running for Senate if the seat opens up, though I take his comments to mean that he would not run even under such a scenario. That means that a Bunning retirement would make Grayson the clear favorite for the GOP nomination - not that this would mean that much in the grand scheme of things: Kentucky’s primary is early enough

Kansas Democrats still looking for a statewide candidate

Published
by
Taniel
on May 16, 2009
in AR-Sen, KS-Gov and KS-Sen
. 4 Comments

Ever since Barack Obama tapped Governor Kathleen Sebelius as HHS Secretary, Kansas Democrats have been at a loss: Who can they run in next year’s open gubernatorial and senatorial races? The obvious response would have been Sebelius’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson: Now Governor, he would be able to run as an incumbent, boosting Democrats’ chance to hold on to a vulnerable seat. But Parkinson has made it clear that he wants to join the private sector in 2011.

Democrats have no other clear candidates to run. While Treasurer Dennis McKinney and Attorney General Stephen Six are Democrats, they were recently appointed to their posts by Sebelius and both will have a hard enough time running for re-election; Sebelius can no longer run for Senate since she is in the Cabinet; Rep. Dennis Moore will not leave his House seat; and former Rep. Jim Slattery has ruled out a run.

The party had one hope left: Parkinson had to choose a new Lieutenant Governor, and Democrats hoped he would elevate an up-and-coming politician that would be able to use that prominent position to build name recognition, introduce himself to voters and look formidable enough to be a credible 2010 candidate. Frankly, that might have been the Democrats’ only shot at keeping the Governor’s mansion - not to mention any hope they still harbor to mount a competitive Senate run.

But Parkinson did no such thing. Yesterday, he picked Troy Findley, Sebelius’s former chief of staff. (The pick was described as a surprise by the local press.) Findley immediately declared that he would not run in 2010, making himself a lame-duck within minutes of his appointment and disappointing increasingly desperate Democrats.

To recap, then: Kansas had a popular Democratic Governor who could have been a formidable Senate candidate but a Democratic White House got her to join the Cabinet instead. Now, the state has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Lieutenant Governor, both of whom are not barred by term limits and could coast to the Democratic nomination of whichever race they choose. Yet, neither will run for anything next year. Talk about a party shooting itself in the foot!

The culprit here seems to be Sebelius rather than Parkinson. Until he was tapped as Sebelius’s running mate in 2006, Parkinson was a partisan Republican: Not only did he serve as a GOP state legislator from 1991 to 1997, he was also the Chairman of the Kansas Republican Party from 1999 to 2003. While he calls himself a Democrat ever since he became candidate for Lieutenant Governor, he is presumably not interested in helping rebuild the state’s Democratic Party. If Sebelius had been interested in that herself, it might have been a wise choice to elevate as Lieutenant Governor a politician from her own party.

Recruitment tidbits, from Mark Parkinson to J.C. Watts

Published
by
Taniel
on March 4, 2009
in CA-Sen, IL-Gov, KS-Gov and OK-Gov
. 0 Comments

Kansas’s Governor race will be open

Earlier this year, Kansas’s Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson had declared that he would not run for the gubernatorial race in 2010, preferring to return to the private sector. But some Democrats were hoping that Parkinson would change his mind now that he is set to replace Kathleen Sebelius as the state’s Governor. That promotion would allow Parkinson to run as an incumbent in 2010 rather than seek an open seat. Yet, Parkinson ruled out such a scenario yesterday. “I’m not running for office in 2010,” he said, reiterating his previous statements.

This leaves Kansas Democrats with no obvious candidate to field in this race, while two prominent Republicans are hoping to pick-up the seat for the GOP (Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh and Senator Sam Brownback). That does not look good for Democrats, whose last hope could come from Parkinson’s choice for his Lieutenant Governor. Parkinson could give a lower-tier Democrat with statewide ambitions a bigger platform from which to wage a 2010 run.

Quinn draws his first opponent

Illinois Governor Pat Quinn looks to be more worried about a primary challenge by Attorney General Lisa Madigan than about the general election. But his first declared opponent is state Senator Bill Brady, a Republican who has served in the legislature for 16 years. Brady already has ran for Governor in 2006, when he received a decent 18% in the GOP’s primary.

Brady is a credible enough candidate to guarantee that the GOP will have someone ready to benefit if Democrats continue to undermine themselves. But he is unlikely to do more than that; Illinois remains a blue state and Brady has a conservative profile. Overall, Republicans have too weak a bench to fully take advantage of the Democrats’ trouble, and their most promising candidate - Rep. Kirk - is looking at the Senate race. (Could that be a mistake? Illinois voters should be more open to voting for a Republican in a state-level race than a federal one.)

Fiorina undergoes surgery

Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard who became a political figure last year as one of John McCain’s top economic advisers, has been diagnosed with breast cancer and has undergone surgery. We wish her a speedy and full recovery. Unfortunately, even this news comes with electoral implications. Fiorina has been mentioned as a possible challenger to Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer, but her health condition makes it much less likely she will choose to launch herself in such a physically taxing statewide run.

However, Fiorina’s chief of staff insisted nothing has been ruled out. “She is keeping all her options open,” she said. Fiorina and Arnold Schwarzenegger are the only Republicans who could mount a credible enough campaign for this race to appear on our radar screen. A survey released last month found Boxer leading Schwarzenegger by 9%; she would presumably also start with a clear lead against Fiorina, though that match-up was not polled.

Watts hints at a comeback

A few days after Rep. Mary Fallin’s entry in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial race seemed to close the door to other ambitious Republicans, The Oklahoma News reports that former Rep. J.C. Watts is looking to jump in the contest. Watts told the Tulsa Chamber of Commerce that he will make up his mind within 45 days.

Even though he has been mostly outside of the spotlight for the past seven years, Watts would be a formidable candidate. He has won a statewide race before (for Oklahoma Corporation Commission) and later served four terms in the House, from 1994 to 2002. In that time, Watts became a nationally known GOP politician. He became the Chairman of the House’s Republican caucus in 1998, and he delivered the Republicans’ official answer to Bill Clinton’s 1997 State of the Union Address. Watts’ status as one of the GOP’s most prominent minority figures made him that much more of a media-friendly figure.

All of these qualifications could make a Watts-Fallin battle unpredictable, which is a risky scenario considering that Oklahoma’s primary date is relatively late (at the end of August). Yet, the GOP should not be too worried about the risk of a bruising battle because Democrats have a competitive primary of their own: Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are both running.

In welcoming Sebelius to Cabinet, Dems wave goodbye to Kansas Senate seat

Published
by
Taniel
on February 28, 2009
in Administration, KS-Gov, KS-Sen and health care
. 6 Comments

Barack Obama has offered the position of HHS Secretary to Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who has reportedly accepted the position. This was expected: Ten days ago, The New York Times had already reported that the Administration was all but certain to tap Sebelius.

(That the appointment is now being confirmed is obviously a major story that deserves to be addressed today, but I did I write an entire post about what the pick would mean when the Times story came out so I used parts of that entry here.)

Sebelius picks makes Senate seat safe GOP hold, perhaps boosts Tiahrt

Sebelius was the only Democrat with any hope of picking-up Kansas’s Senate seat, left open by Sam Brownback’s retirement (a recent poll had Sebelius beating Rep. Moran and Rep. Tiahrt by double-digits). her move to the HHS Department all but guarantees that the seat remain in the GOP’s hands - and that  most certainly offers indescribable relief to the NRSC.

The primary showdown between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt is now the de facto general election - and that could have major consequences on the primary’s dynamics. While they share a similar ideological profile, Tiahrt has the reputation of a movement conservative while Moran can be perceived as somewhat more mainstream. If Sebelius had been waiting in the general election, Moran could have benefited from looking more electable; but the Governor’s departure means that electability will not be a factor in the Moran-Tiahrt battle, allowing primary voters to choose whoever they feel closer to. That could prove a major boost for Tiahrt.

Finally: Many Democrats will surely be puzzled that Obama is willing to give up on his party’s shot at the seat; if anything, the past few weeks showed Obama the importance of enjoying a filibuster-proof majority. It is very possible that Sebelius had already decided not to run for Senate, and had informed Obama and the DSCC of her decision, allowing the President to pick her without having to worry about midterm repercussions.

A new Governor

Sebelius’s move to Washington also means that Kansas will have a new Governor: Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who ran as Sebelius’s running mate in 2006. But Parkinson was in the GOP until the spring of 2006, and he held many elected offices as a Republican from the early 90s onwards; he was also the chairman of the state Republican Party! So while Kansas will technically remain in Democratic hands, state governance could move to the right.

This might have consequences in the 2010 gubernatorial race. Sebelius is term-limited out of office in 2010 anyway, so her departure to Washington does not deprive Democrats of her candidacy. Yet, Parkinson’s elevation means that the state now has an incumbent who is allowed to run for re-election, and that could help Democrats keep the governorship. Fortunately for the GOP, it looks like the race will still be an open: Parkinson declared in early January that he would not run for any office next year. Might he change his mind now that he will get used to serving as Governor and would be able to run as the incumbent? And could he win the Democratic primary given that he was the Kansas GOP’s chairman just a few years ago?

A centrist liberals can stand

Sebelius’s nomination would increase the ranks of Cabinet centrists, but it would also come as a relief to progressives, who had come to expect the worse. For starters, Sebelius is a Democrat (which is significant, given some of the Administration’s other appointments…), and she is far less conservative a pick than Phil Bredesen, the health care coverage-cutting Tennessee Governor with deep ties to the insurance industry who looked looked like one of the front-runners for the position.

Sebelius’s ability to awake little passion (for or against her) has always puzzled me, but that is probably what Obama is looking in an HHS Secretary: A wonky, reassuring-looking politician who will ignite as little partisan fire as possible from either side. Indeed, Sebelius has little partisan edge - something that generally frustrates liberals - but she has managed not to develop the reputation of a conservative Democrat. This remarkable equilibrium mirrors Obama’s own ideological positioning, especially when it comes to health care (as we saw in the primary as well as the general election): A centrist, but a non-militant one.

Health care will obviously be one of the biggest issues of Obama’s presidencies, which means that Sebelius could emerge as one of the Administration’s most important players. This could prove perilous, but it is also sure to immensely rewarding - both professionally and personally. (Getting credit for finally realizing some version of health care reform could position Sebelius for bigger things in the years ahead.) And as we learned this week that Obama plans to start pushing for health care reform this year, Sebelius will have to get to work immediately.

Update: The Kansas City Star asks a very good question:

Who will [Parkinson] pick as his lieutenant governor now that he’ll be vacating that position? Why is that significant? Because it’s the Democrats’ last chance to come up with a candidate for governor or the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Sebelius closing in on HHS

Published
by
Taniel
on February 18, 2009
in Administration, KS-Gov, KS-Sen and health care
. 7 Comments

If we are to trust The New York Times’s reporting, Senate Republicans are about to get their biggest break in years as Barack Obama has settled on Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius as the Health and Human Services Secretary. The position was left vacant by Tom Daschle’s withdrawal.

The Times suggests that the appointment is only held up because the Administration wants to conduct as thorough as possible a vetting process to avoid yet another Cabinet controversy. There are no other candidates to mention, writes Baker. So it looks like only a skeleton in Sebelius’s closet could derail her nomination.

Senate, Governor: Major consequences in 2010

Should Obama follow through, this appointment would have major consequences for the midterms. Senator Sam Brownback is retiring in 2010, and Sebelius is the only Democrat with any hope of picking-up the seat. (A recent poll had her beating Rep. Moran and Rep. Tiahrt by double-digits.) Yet, her move to the HHS Department would prevent her from running for Senate, and it would all but guarantee that the seat remain in the GOP’s hands.

Needless to say, that would provide indescribable relief to Republicans who are so anxious about the five open seats they already have to defend next year!

On the other hand, Sebelius’s departure could help Democrats keep the Governor’s mansion. Kansas’s governorship is one of the most endangered in the nation since Sebelius is term-limited out of office. Her resignation would elevate Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson, a Democrat who was until recently a Republican. Parkinson could then be in a stronger position than the Democratic nominee was expected to be since he could run in 2010 as an incumbent. [Correction: I initially wrote that Parkinson was already expected to run for the open seat in 2010. However, Parkinson declared in early January that he would not run for any office next year. Might he change his mind if he gets to serve as Governor for a year? And could he win the Democratic primary given that he was the Kansas GOP's chairman just a few years ago?]

If these plans to nominate Sebelius nomination fall through, other potential picks are Bredesen, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, Oregon Senator Ron Wyden and Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro. Democrats frustrated that Sebelius’s appointment will cost them the Kansas Senate seat can at least tell themselves that it means that they will not have to defend Wyden’s seat in a risky springtime special election; on the other hand, a Granholm pick would have help Democrats down-the-ballot since the Democratic Lieutenant Governor would be elevated and could run as an incumbent in 2010.

A centrist liberals can stand

Finally, Sebelius’s nomination would increase the ranks of Cabinet centrists, but it would also come as a relief to progressives, who had come to expect the worse. For starters, Sebelius is a Democrat (which is significant, given some of the Administration’s other appointments…), and she is far less conservative a pick than Phil Bredesen, the health care coverage-cutting Tennessee Governor with deep ties to the insurance industry. For a while, Bredesen looked like one of the front-runners for the position, which led liberal activists and bloggers mobilizing against him.

If Sebelius is confirmed as Obama’s choice, the President will have made a pick who has little partisan edge, but one that has managed not to develop the reputation of a conservative Democrat and thus remain somewhat acceptable to the liberal wing. This remarkable equilibrium mirrors Obama’s own ideological positioning: A centrist, but a non-militant one.

Obama’s positioned himself to the center on health care in the primary as well as the general election, and this is one reform Obama is clearly committed to selling as a “post-partisan,” “pragmatist” compromise - whatever those terms mean. Sebelius’s ability to awake little passion (for or against her) has always puzzled me, but that is probably what Obama is looking in an HHS Secretary: A wonky, reassuring-looking politician who can navigate a centrist version of health care reform through Congress while igniting as little partisan fire as possible from either side.

The electoral consequences of Obama’s Cabinet picks

Published
by
Taniel
on December 21, 2008
in AL-07, AZ-Gov, CA-32, CO-03, IL-05, KS-Gov, KS-Sen, MA-Sen, ME-Sen, MI-Gov, MN-07, NJ-Gov, NM-Sen, NY-Sen, RI-Sen, SD-AL, SD-Sen and TX-17
. 6 Comments

Ever since Barack Obama’s election, there has been intense speculation surrounding his Cabinet positions. A lot of it has concerned the electoral consequences of tapping Governors, Senators and House members: Would the seat switch parties, who would take over, and what would it mean for the 2010 landscape?

Now that Obama has filled his Cabinet, it is time to offer is a rundown of elected officials who were nominated, those who were rumored but did not make the cut - and what all of this means to the political landscape.

—

Those who were tapped

  • Hillary Clinton, New York

The unexpected news that Hillary Clinton was being considered for a Secretary of State position captivated the political class throughout November. The deed was finally consummated, capping a remarkable year for Hillary and Barack. Clinton’s nomination also opened a vacancy in one of the country’s largest and most Democratic state, focused everyone’s attention on Governor David Paterson and subsequently on Caroline Kennedy, added a Senate race to the 2010 line-up and provided the GOP a glimmer of hope of picking-up a seat.

  • Tom Dashle, South Dakota

Some Democrats dreamed of Dashle challenging John Thune to a Senate rematch in 2010 - a scenario that is now foreclosed by Dashle’s appointment as HHS Secretary. However, it was always very unlikely that Dashle would jump in the race, so Obama’s pick changed very little electorally.

  • Rahm Emanuel, IL-05

IL-05 is a Chicago-based district that is heavily Democratic. Such an open seat can only mean one thing: A chaotic intra-party battle between dozens of city-level Democrats who have been waiting for years to move up the ladder, with no possibility that a Republican even dream about winning the seat.

  • Janet Napolitano, Arizona

Janet Napolitano’s appointment to the Homeland Security Department is Obama’s one nomination that has already cost Democrats a seat. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer will take over as the state’s Governor. Given that Brewer was already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat in 2010 (Napolitano would not have been able to run due to term limit laws), it seems a safe bet to say that she will run now that she can do so as an incumbent. This gives Republicans the clear upper hand in what was expected to be one of the most competitive open seats of 2010.

  • Bill Richardson, New Mexico

Richardson’s Cabinet prospects seemed to end with Hillary Clinton’s nomination to Foggy Bottom, but the New Mexico Governor will be reborn as Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. A Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, will take over and will thus have the upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Due to term-limits, Richardson was not allowed to run for re-election which means that the seat would have been open. But Denish, who was already considered a likely candidate before Richardon’s nomination, can now run as an incumbent.

  • Ken Salazar, Colorado

Ken Salazar’s nomination to the Interior Department created the fourth Senate vacancy due to Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will choose Salazar’s successor, and Democrats have a deep enough bench in Colorado that Ritter has plenty of contenders to choose from. (I summarized the politics of this appointment two days ago.) Salazar’s departure from the Senate gives an opening to Republicans, but two factors minimize its impact. First, Salazar was up for re-election in 2010, so this will not add an additional seat for Democrats to defend. Second, Salazar was not safe to start with.

  • Hilda Solis, CA-32

Rep. Solis’s appointment as Secretary of Labor was unexpected, but the special election that will be triggered after Solis’s confirmation won’t give the DCCC many headaches: CA-32 is a very Democratic district that gave John Kerry 62% of the vote in 2004.

  • Tom Vilsack, Iowa

Vilsack’s unexpected nomination as Secretary of Agriculture has one immediate electoral consequence: we are now sure that Vilsack will not run for Senate in 2010. Vilsack might have been the only Democrat strong enough to credibly challenge Senator Chuck Grassley. Vilsack’s nomination might also make it more likely that Grassley run for re-election since he no longer has to worry about spending two grueling years on the campaign trail. All of this said, a Vilsack candidacy was only a possibility, and many considered it unlikely.

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Those who were not:

  • Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, Maine

Some Democrats were pushing the idea of tapping one of Maine’s two moderate Senators as one of the Republican Cabinet members Obama had promised in order to allow Maine’s Democratic Governor to appoint their (Democratic) successor.

  • John Corzine, New Jersey

After Larry Summer’s name faded in mid-November, John Corzine was mentioned as a possible Secretary of the Treasury. This would have elevated State Senate President Richard Codey as acting Governor, a position he already occupied after Jim McGreevey’s resignation in 2004. It would also have meant a far more entertaining gubernatorial race in 2009.

  • Arthur Davis, AL-07

Rep. Davis is said to have statewide ambitions - perhaps as early as 2010 - so this seat could soon be open, but Democrats have little to worry about: This is a heavily Democratic and African-American district that gave Kerry 64% of the vote in 2004.

  • Chet Edwards, TX-17

First mentioned as a vice-presidential contender over the summer, Edwards saw his name back in the mix during Obama’s transition efforts. Edwards represents a heavily Republican district, and it would have been very difficult to envision Democrats holding on to his seat in a special election had Edwards joined Obama’s Cabinet.

  • Jennifer Granholm, Michigan

Michigan’s Governor was mentioned as a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Labor. Her appointment would have elevated Democrat John Cherry in the Governor’s position and given the Democratic Party the early upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. As it stands now, Granholm is term-limited and the race will be one of the country’s most competitive open seats.

  • Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota

Rep. Stephanie Herseth was mentioned as one of the finalists for the Secretary of Agriculture positions, and her appointment would have been a nightmare for House Democrats. South Dakota remains a Republican enough state that the GOP would have had a great shot at reclaiming the seat in a spring special election. This could have consequences down the line for Tim Johnson’s Senate succession.

  • John Kerry, Massachusetts

The former presidential candidate was rumored to be the most likely to be picked as Secretary of State and Massachusetts Democrats were already preparing for a 2009 special election (there is no gubernatorial appointment in the state). But Hillary Clinton’s unexpected emergence thwarted Kerry’s hopes - and those of the hundreds of Massachusetts Democrats who have been waiting for decades for Senate and/or House seats to open up.

  • Colin Peterson, MN-07

Rumored to have been on the short list for Secretary of Agriculture alongside Rep. Herseth, Peterson’s appointment would have triggered a difficult special election for Democrats. Now Chairman of the House’s Agriculture Committee, Peterson is entrenched and senior enough that he can keep his seat blue, but MN-07 is a Republican-leaning district that gave George Bush big winning margins and that narrowly went for John McCain this year.

  • Jack Reed, Rhode Island

Just like Chet Edwards, Jack Reed made a strong apparition in the summer’s veepstakes, and his name was mentioned as a possible Secretary of State. One reason his prospects might have been thwarted is that Rhode Island’s Governor is a Republican, so a Reed appointment would have resulted in an additional GOP Senator.

  • John Salazar, CO-03

Salazar’s name was often mentioned as Secretary of Interior but his brother - Senator Ken Salazar - ended up getting the nod. This is a relief for House Democrats, as CO-03 is a Republican-leaning district that would have been tough to defend in a special election. (That said, we might still have a vacancy in CO-03 since John is on the list of Democrats who could be appointed to Ken’s Senate seat.)

  • Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas

The Kansas Governor seemed certain to land in Obama’s Cabinet. She had been on his vice-presidential short list and was considered a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Labor. Her statement withdrawing her name from Cabinet considerations was thus one of the biggest surprises of this transition period. (It is of course unclear whether Sebelius issued the statement because she genuinely wanted to help Kansas through the economic crisis or because she had already been told she was unlikely to get an appointment.)

In any case, her withdrawal preserves the governorship in Democratic hands (the next-in-line is a Republican); it could have a huge impact on the upcoming open Senate race. Democrats have not won a Senate race in this state since 1936, and Sebelius is probably the only Democrat who stands a chance. A Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running and would have guaranteed that the Senate race remain in Republican hands.