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Category Archive for ‘IA-Dem’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'IA-Dem' Category


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Pledged delegate breakdown, April 27th edition

It had been quite a while since I last updated the pledged delegate breakdown on March 31st. After weeks of constant elections and states refining their allocation, the six-week lull struck and froze things on the delegate front for a while.

Three changes in our delegate count today. The first, obviously, comes form Pennsylvania’s primary — the only contest that took place in the entire month of April. Second, the numbers out of the Texas caucuses have been refined and Obama picked up a delegate since my last update, now leading 38-29 instead of 37-30.

Third, Iowa held its district conventions this week; you might remember that, at the county convention, Obama had picked up a stunning number number of delegates thanks to the desertion of Edwards delegates, transforming his 16-15 edge against Clinton the night of the caucuses to a 25-14 advantage. The district conventions, however, saw a small but surprising Edwards comeback, as the former candidate managed to get one more delegate elected out of the first district; it looks like Clinton delegates helped Edwards cross the viability threshold in order to cost Obama a delegate — and they succeeded, a very rare instance of the Clinton campaign out-maneuvering Obama at caucuses. A detailed explanation of how these district conventions function is available here.

Iowa, delegate breakdown after the district conventions:

  • Obama: 24 delegates (Previous total based on the county convention vote: 25)
  • Clinton: 14 (Previous total: 14)
  • Edwards: 7 (Previous total: 6)

Pennsylvania primary: Clinton 54,55%-Obama 44.45%

  • Clinton: 83 delegates
  • Obama: 73
  • Outstanding: 2

This brings us to the following total:

  • Obama: 1488.5 delegates
  • Clinton: 1335.5

That’s a differential of 153 pledged delegates — only a small improvement for Hillary since March 31st, when she was trailing by 162 delegates. The Pennsylvania results in particular were a disappointment for the Clinton campaign who had surely been hoping to dent into Obama’s margin in a more meaningful manner; the delegate allocation rules and the division between even and odd delegate districts ended up favoring Obama in this state.

It has become impossible for a while for Clinton to catch up Obama among pledged delegates, but that certainly does not mean that this count is not meaningful. Even if Obama suffers a meltdown of the sort Clinton has been waiting for, she still has to be close enough in the pledged delegate count to be in a position of clinching the nomination even if superdelegates move massively towards her — right now, she needs too massive a proportion of uncommitted superdelegates to endorse her (though the Clinton campaign would respond that, were Obama to suffer a meltdown, a number of superdelegates who have endorsed him might migrate away from him).

To get herself meaningfully closer, Clinton needs to get huge margins in West Virginia and Kentucky, win big in Puerto Rico, score a convincing victory in Indiana and — very importantly — keep the race close in North Carolina, the upcoming state that will allocate the most delegates. Naturally, there is also the question of the Florida and Michigan delegates and whether they should be seated; compromises to seat half of the delegations, and at least Florida’s, have long been in the works and the DNC is getting ready to hear such appeals.


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Caucus chaos: Obama gains in Iowa, Clinton contests Texas (Updated with new Iowa numbers)

So much for the pledged delegate count Campaign Diaries and most media groups have been keeping up. More than 13 thousand delegates elected on January 3rd convened today at Iowa’s county conventions and they threw the delegate allocation numbers we had all relied on out of the window. (I explained how this was possible, and the stakes of today’s convention, in this post yesterday). With all of the county conventions now completed, the Obama campaign can claim a big victory.

Based on the vote at the county conventions, the original delegate count out of Iowa (16 for Obama and 15 for Clinton) will change dramatically and reflect a significant gain on Obama’s part: He can now claim 25 delegates out of Iowa, while Clinton lost a delegate and is now at 14 with Edwards losing eight to end up with 6 (these delegates will be up for grabs once again in the next round). With almost all delegates for the state convention selected, Obama obtained 52%, Clinton 32% and Edwards 16%, which more or less means that almost all Edwards’s delegates who did not stay with their candidate switched to Obama.

This is obviously a huge gain for the Illinois Senator. His 10 delegate increase alone is superior to Clinton’s edge out of Ohio! And this from a much smaller state like Iowa in which Obama got 9% more than his rival: With 38% of the vote, Obama can now claim 55% of the state’s delegate, the biggest disparity we have yet seen in a system that looked so strictly proportional. Given that Clinton is already so far behind in the pledged delegate count and that we can hardly imagine her catching up in pledged delegates with all the remaining contests, this is obviously a blow to her chances.

But how is this different from superdelegates deciding to vote for whomever they want without respecting the will of voters? Iowa voted on January 3rd — but the delegate allocation will not follow the will of that day’s voters. And not only because Edwards delegates backed Obama, since Clinton appears to have lost a delegate! After all the vociferation about respecting the will of voters, this does not seem like the logical next step.

The caucus system is looking increasingly disastrous for Clinton. It means not one caucus but a whole series of caucuses, each further diluting Clinton’s votes. Fortunately for the New York Senator, she has much less to fear in most other caucuses, for she has already reached such depths in most of them that she can’t possibly go much further down (in Idaho, for example, she only has 3 out of 18 delegates). But there are two danger areas: Nevada, where she won the popular vote and has to defend 12 out of 25 delegates, and Texas.

The Texas caucuses are still reporting at 41%… which has prompted me to not include the delegate breakdown of that contest in my delegate count. The projection out of those 41% gives 38 delegates to Obama and 29 to Clinton, but both candidates are too close to the thresholds of one less/one more delegate in too many districts that have barely reported with a third of their precincts for a definite breakdown to make any sense (it is worth noting that some networks, like NBC, are also refusing to project final numbers).

Worried about facing the same problem in Texas that she did today in Iowa, Clinton is now openly contesting the March 4th caucuses as she had been threatening to do for a while. Her move today was to send a letter to the Texas Democratic Party, as reported by the Dallas Morning News, to ask that the March 29th county conventions (exactly what happened in Iowa today) be postponed. Why? Because she wants the identity of caucus-goers to be double-checked, and she cites a number of violations including votes being taken with head counts instead of written rolls.

It is true that the Texas caucuses were a stunningly chaotic affair, with officials having utterly failed at organizing them and preparing for the turnout. They were reports of caucuses starting hours late, voting taking place in parking lots in the dark and with flashlights because there was not enough room in the actual caucus location, etc. There was no evidence of fraud — both Obama and Clinton threw such allegations at each other — simply the incompetence of the caucus organizers and government officials. In this context, Clinton’s move to contest the county conventions could be interpreted as a delaying tactic and one born out of genuine worry as to what the March 29th conventions could have in store.

To make matters worse, it’s hard for us who cover the campaign to know what to expect and what is really going on in Texas when we have no access to the 59% of the results of a contest that is deciding a total of 67 delegates — and I am very much afraid that most of the precincts which are not reporting are those where media reports say voting took place on parking lots.


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Dems ready for contests in Michigan and… Iowa?!

In a sure sign that the Democratic primaries are caught in a time warp with no end in sight, the campaigns are now getting ready to fight a potentially decisive fight in… Iowa. More than two months after Obama’s game-changing victory, the state’s county conventions are convening tomorrow, and you can sense that the Des Moines Register can barely conceal its glee at having some kind of role to play once again.

The tricky thing with caucuses is that no candidate actually wins any DNC delegates on Election Night, and the totals released by the networks are only projections that will hold if everything goes as it’s supposed to. In fact, a caucus elects county delegates, and county conventions elect district delegates, and only then does the state convention choose its actual delegates.

In Iowa, 13,485 delegates were elected on January 3rd! And all of those are allowed to go and elect about a fourth as many tomorrow in the state conventions… That means that the Clinton and Obama campaign will have to make sure that all of their county delegates go participate tomorrow to make sure they get as many DNC delegates as they are entitled to. If Obama, for example, fails to get all his delegates to the caucuses tomorrow, he could easily lose a delegate here and there — and we would be forced to change our pledged delegate totals!

To prevent that from happening, both campaigns have paid staff in the state contacting their delegates, leaving messages and organizing a whole new turnout operation! Nothing can be simple in the Democratic primaries.

Especially targeted are the county delegates of John Edwards. The final projection out of Iowa was 16 delegates for Obama, 15 for Clinton and 14 for Edwards — so that’s 14 delegates that will be distributed between Obama and Clinton or be sent to the convention as uncommitted depending on what Edwards’s county delegates do tomorrow. So the fight for Edwards’s Iowa delegates is possibly more crucial than that of the Wyoming caucuses!

Meanwhile, Michigan seems to be inching towards a resolution… without Florida! As the Sunshine state’s mail-in scenario looks ruined, Michigan Democrats have been much more successful at finding consensus between themselves and with the two campaigns, and a plan on which all parties are already in agreement could be reached later today. It would be a state-run primary that would apparently not be paid by the state and not be conducted via mail, and it would take place on June 3rd.

Any such plan would have to be approved by the DNC, the state legislature and… the Department of Justice, which could delay things further but Michigan Democrats appear hopeful that they can at least start organizing for the contest. Unless Florida finds a way to follow very quickly it could be left out of the loop, and this could be a disastrous scenario for Clinton: Florida is much more favorable for her than Michigan is, and a June 3rd showdown in only the latter could be a major headache for her campaign, for a loss there (or even a tight race) would cost her most of the arguments she is relying on to court superdelegates and argue that she has momentum. And how would the dilemma of Florida delegates be resolved?


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The morning after, Democrats: We have a new favorite

The Democratic results might not have been a surprise considering the Obama campaign itself was predicting victory in the final days, but they upend the state of the race dramatically. Hillary Clinton was the inevitable front-runner all the way until the end of October; after the Philadelphia debate, she lost her inevitability but she was still favored to win it all. That is no more true; the roles have been reversed, and Barack Obama has to be anointed the new favorite to become the Democrat nominee.

The scenario that played out last night was Clinton’s nightmare: She came in third and Barack Obama came in first. The one comforting thought has to be that she managed to stay in a tie for second-place (only 7 delegates separate Edwards and her) but the press is loving the symbol of Clinton coming in third and is going to run with it for the next few days.

Yet, it is undeniable that something big happened last night. Turnout surpassed anyone’s expectations, even those of the most optimistic Obama aides. Nearly 240,000 Iowans went to caucus for Democrats which is nearly the double of what it was in 2004. Among the 57% who were first-time caucus goers, Obama demolished his adversaries: He got 41% to Clinton’s 29% and Edwards’s pale 18%. On the other hand, Edwards led among voters who had already caucused. Furthermore, and while Obama did win a huge share of independent voters (41%), they only comprised 20% of voters — much less than what some had predicted. Hillary Clinton cannot claim that Barack Obama won solely on the basis of his strength among non-Democrats, as the two were tied among registered Democrats. Obama appears to have won mostly because of a turnout surge among the youth who participated in much greater numbers. And a stunning 57% of the 17-29 year old crowd voted for Obama. This is what Howard Dean tried to pull off 4 years ago and failed miserably at.

As predicted, realignment played a huge role in the results — especially the Richardson-Obama deal. What is most puzzling is not that there was such a deal in the first place (there is ample documentation that Richardson voters did go massively for Obama last night and that precinct captains told them that those were the instruction), but why did Richardson and Obama keep it secret and the campaigns kept denying it? To avoid the press talking about it in what could undermine the purity of victory? Obama would have won without Richardson’s boost but his lead could have been smaller. And we’ve got to wonder about the ethics of not publicizing such a deal and repeatedly denying it.

A second observation about second-choice preferences is that they pushed Clinton into third-place. Entrance polls showed Edwards trailing Clinton by about 4-5% in raw votes, and he managed to narrowly pass her at the end. That conforms to a lot of anecdotal evidence across the state as observers reported that Clinton gained very few votes between the two rounds of counting and Edwards very often passed her in places where he was third in hte first round of counting.

What does this mean for the rest of the race? Clinton knows that early wins for Obama could make him invincible in the coming weeks, especially if the African-American vote in South Carolina flips in favor of Obama (it has been tied for most of the year). Clinton can hardly afford to wait until Florida where she cannot even campaign due to her pledge — though it will be interesting to see whether she is tempted to go back on her promise once Iowa and New Hampshire have voted — and has to get back on track in New Hampshire. Polls have Clinton up in New Hampshire by varying margins — anywhere between 4% and 15%, and we will see in the coming days just how much of a bounce Barack Obama gets.

And Clinton is working fast to move on from Iowa — and has started questioning the legitimacy of the caucus process. Her staff is murmuring that Iowa has never elected a woman in any gubernatorial and congressional election, which, to be fair, is a rather disturbing fact. And Hillary said today in New Hampshire: “You’re not disenfranchised if you work at night. You’re not disenfranchised if you’re not in the state.”

Don’t underestimate Clinton’s chances in New Hampshire. Given that Obama and Clinton were almost tied prior to Iowa, Obama has to be given a slight edge in the Granite State, but Clinton’s organization and network is much stronger here than it was in IA. Bill Clinton is very popular in the state and will be dispatched everywhere in the coming days — and she has many other surrogates. The big question now is how negative will Hillary Clinton go in NH; she had started to go down that route in December and then stopped. But she could have no other path at this point: Obama has got momentum, people are starting to see he is electable after all and a second loss could be near-fatal. And one mystery: What will happen in Michigan? With Dodd’s exit, Clinton is now the only candidate in the race. She’ll try to spin it as a “I stayed and was not afraid of the fight,” will anyone buy it?

The trouble for Clinton: Movement candidacies pick-up steam remarkably fast. Many high-profile Democrats such as Al Gore and Ted Kennedy might have been staying away from endorsing for fear of offending the likely nominee, but now that Hillary has been defeated once Obama could start seeing the tangible benefits of that. Money, of course, but such high-profile names could start lining up behind him. Obama’s victory in Iowa could make the rest of the campaign fundamentally different. And with Obama as the favorite, the spotlight is now turned on him — with everything good and bad that entails. More attention, people taking him more seriously… but also increased criticism and negative stories coming out.

And what this means for other candidates: John Edwards had a good showing. But let’s face it, he is toast. He put everything in the caucuses, and he would have won if turnout had been lower. But he is tied for second — and got less than he did in 2004. That said, it is undeniable that Edwards did great given that the press barely covered him for much of the year. That he remained competitive with Obama and Clinton despite the way the campaign was framed speaks to his resilience and his talent as a campaigner. But Edwards needed a win to remain viable. He has no real organization in later states and not that much money — and what next for him? Where does he go, and where does he win?

He is presenting himself as the underdog and the change agent who defeated the status quo, but he got a higher share of the vote among conservatives than among liberals; and as the white male of the race, he definitely attracted some of the status-quo vote. His speech last night meant that he is staying in the race — and he has been reframing it as an Obama-Edwards race now. Look at what he said today: “I am not the candidate of glitz; I am not the candidate of glamor. I am the candidate who will fight with every fiber of my being every step of the way.” But the more he stays in and is competitive, the better that is likely to be for Hillary Clinton as it gives her an opening to corner Obama.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd both dropped out. It is still unclear whether they are planning to endorse anyone but the results must have been disappointing for them. Biden apparently got about 5% at the entrance but less than 1% of the delegates. More than anything, this frees up a ton of endorsements: Chris Dodd especially had the backing of the prized firefighters union, and we’ll have to see where they go next. And Ted Kennedy was rumored to be reluctant to endorse anyone given his friendship with Dodd, so this could also liberate him. Keep in mind that Dodd grew into a whole new persona over the past few months and positioned himself to challenge Reid for Majority Leader at
some point in the future. And contrary to reports in the press, Mike Gravel is not pulling out.


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Iowa results thread: Huckabee and Obama win, Clinton likely to be third, Biden and Dodd drop out

11:55pm: Giuliani gave a speech tonight from… Florida and did not mention Iowa once. He is only at 4% in the caucuses, 6% behind Ron Paul which says a lot. With 87% in, Huckabee is ahead 34-26 and the Thompson-McCain race is still tied. Meanwhile among Democrats, all but one precinct have reported with Obama at 37.57%, 29.76% for Edwards, 29.46% for Clinton, and 2.11% for Richardson. Biden gets only 0.96% of delegates. Just imagine the huge number of caucus-goers who had to realign given the final numbers Biden and Richardson had to settle for.
11:20pm: Joe Biden is dropping out as well, CNN is reporting, which is a big surprise. No news for now on whether he will endorse. Barack Obama just gave his victory speech and he was clearly in his element, as this kind of speech in front of a pumped-up crowd is where he shines best — and he emphasized the historic nature of the night. “This is the day we will remember” years from now, he said again and again.
10:50pm: Thompson is back slightly in front but it’s only 300 votes. Race for third is going down the wire. And Ron Paul is firmly in double-digits. Meanwhile, Huckabee’s speech is a classic mixture of Christian humility and populism. With Chuck Norris standing just behind him. And Clinton has not made up any ground at all, with only 70 precincts outstanding she’s 11 delegates behind (while both are about 190 behind Obama). And Clinton is now more than 8% behind Obama. That has got to hurt — and it’s even larger than the DMR poll predicted.
Meanwhile, here are the latest turnout projections: It’s only 90,000 among Republicans, and 221,000 among Democrats. That’s a gigantic number — beyond anyone’s projections. Beyond even Obama’s campaign hopes, as the consensus among Obamaites was about 150,000. And has clearly been a boost mainly among the youth and among independents, and it provided a gigantic boost for Obama. And consider that Democrats outnumbered Republicans 2.5:1… in a state Bush carried in 2004. How much does that speak of the GOP malaise?
10:40pm: Chris Dodd is dropping out, and it is still unclear if he will endorse anyone. This could also mean that Ted Kennedy could endorse soon, as what was holding him back might have been his friendship with Dodd. And it also frees up the endorsement of the prized firefighter’s union.
Meanwhile, Huckabee started speaking at the same time as Romney — and Mitt’s speech is not being covered by the networks. Kind of symbolic of the night for Romney.
10:30pm: It’s Hillary Clinton’s turn, and she is celebrating this as a great night for Democrats, and thanking all caucus-goers for “standing out and caucusing for a Democrat…” She could have said EXACTLY the same thing if she had won the race (which made for a pretty surreal speech) as she framed it all in a GOP v. Democrat frame as opposed to a speech on the eve of a primary election. Speculation: She mentions “Democrats… [pause] and like-minded independents” and there were laughs in the audience. Is that meant as a dig to Obama’s reliance on independents, or am I just imagining things at this point? And Clinton followed it up by taking digs at Iowa… in a brilliantly subtle way by promising to be a president for those who need it like all those who couldn’t caucus tonight like those who have to work night shift and those who are in Iraq. A way to shoot down the undemocratic nature of the caucuses without actually saying so.
The basic message: Clinton might have lost tonight, but she wants Democrats in later states to know she barely cares about it and that she is still the natural front-runner.
10:20pm: John Edwards, speaking right now, claimed second-place and celebrated the “defeat of the status-quo” and the victory of change — apparently lumping himself with Obama versus Clinton. And Edwards is following this up with a populist speech, and he has gone on to address poverty and the need for health care.
With 78% of the GOP in, McCain has now passed Thompson for third-place — though there is only 34 votes differentiating them.
10:05pm: The numbers are hardly changing at this point. With 92% in, it’s 37.18% Obama, 30% Edwards and 29.58% Clinton. CNN reports Obama has won the top 5 counties of Iowa. And among Republicans, numbers have hardly moved. Thompson is barely ahead of McCain.
9:50pm: Entrance poll shows surprising result that union members put Edwards in third, and those who decided late chose Obama and Edwards. With 89% precincts in, Clinton is under 30% and not very far from Edwards. The story will probably be a tie for second at this point. The press is emphasizing the boost Obama will get because of whites embracing his candidacy.
9:45pm: A huge proportion — 55% — of GOP voters were evangelicals. Don’t look further to explain Huckabee’s victory. Republicans numbers are finally coming in with 65% reporting: Huckabee 34%, Romney 25%, Thompson 14%, 13%, McCain. Paul is at 10% and Giuliani is only at 4%. It looks like my one projection that Paul will beat Giuliani is being proven true.
Meanwhile, KEY entrance poll: among independents, Obama got 41% and Clinton 17%. That clearly provided much of his margin of victory. Can Clinton and Edwards stay above 30%? The gap is increasing fast: It’s now 37% Obama.
9:35: Can Obama get to 40%? He is rising fast and he is now at 36%. And the storyline is clear: independents have carried the day for Obama (though I have not yet seen a projection of what the Democratic turnout proportions are). Meanwhile, Edwards and Clinton are basically tied — proving that Edwards is getting a big boost from second choice preferences. Can Clinton avoid her nightmare scenario? Right now it’s Obama-Edwards-Clinton. There’s still 400 precincts to go and there is only 3 delegates separating Edwards and Clinton.

9:25pm: Obama is being projected the winner among Democrats by the networks.

With 70% reporting among Democrats, Obama has crossed 35% and Clinton has gone south of 31%. And here is more evidence of the Obama-Richardson deal. From the results it looks like Obama would not be where he is now without that (it’s safe to assume at least a 3-4% boost). Republican numbers are not updating much.
9:20pm Evidence that second-choices are sinking Hillary: Richardson, Biden and Dodd are apparently viable nearly nowhere — which means that nearly everyone backing them is rellocating which is awful news for Hillary Clinton. The TNR reports that at a precinct Clinton ended up trailing Edwards by a vote while she was ahead in the raw votes of the first count — and Clinton gets one less delegate just because of that one raw vote (out of a total of more than 200). And this explains why Clinton is still trailing Edwards in the results despite coming in ahead of him in entrance polls. With 1200 precincts, it’s Obama 35% and 31% for Clinton and Edwards.
9:15pm More talk about the deal: TNR’s Crowley is now being told that Richardson’s 17 people decided at the site to go for Obama and had not been told anything. Not sure what to think here. The press’s take on Romney’s defeat is emphasizing just how much Romney outspent Huckabee, which is not a conversation Romney wants to have. Meanwhile with almost 1000 precincts in, Obama is still ahead and very very slowly rising. It’s still 34-32-31 with Clinton in third.
9:05pm: Entrance polls have been refined and now apparently show Obama narrowly ahead, which should ensure an Obama victory given that he is clearly benefiting from realignment. With almost 50% reporting in the Democratic race, Obama is starting to rise: 34% to 32% for Edwards and 31% for Clinton. Clearly big precincts are favoring Barack. Let’s see how close Clinton can keep it. Meanwhile among Republicans: With 25%
reporting Thompson is narrowly ahead of McCain.

9:00pm: Mike Huckabee is now being projected to win the Iowa caucuses by CNN and Fox. He is likely to win big.

9:00pm: More evidence of a Richardson-Obama deal via Ben Smith who reports the Richardson captain at his precinct told his group the campaign strategy is to go for Obama and told Smith he had been told this “informally.” Meanwhile, Obama looks to have cleaned out in the precinct shown on C-Span, where his group is more than the double of Clinton’s. This kind of large precinct will now start reporting, so numbers could change quickly.
8:55pm: With 15% of the GOP vote, Huckabee is up 36% to 23% on Romney with Thompson at 14% and McCain at 12%. On the Democratic side, it’s 33% Edwards, 32% Obama and 32% Clinton… could hardly be tighter. Meanwhile, entrance polls of CNN: 57% of 17-29 year olds went for Obama and 11% for Obama, and among 65+ voters it’s 45% Clinton and 17% for Obama.
8:45pm: Richardson seems to have indeed struck some sort of deal! The TNR’s Crowley reports that in the precinct in which he is standing all 17 of Richardson’s supporters collectively moved to Obama’s group after Richardson was unviable. That’s 17 out of 161 voters — nearly 10%. That is some huge boost for Obama if it holds across precincts and a blow to Edwards who was hoping to pick-up these second choices.
8:38pm: The Obama campaign is now predicting 200,000 — which could be a huge boost to his chances to win this out. We have now passed 10% precincts reporting and it’s now 33% E, 32% C, 31% O. Couldn’t be tighter — but Obama’s strongest counties are probably still to come. And as I already noted, turnout could be a huge boost for Obama and should also help Clinton distance Edwards at the end.
8:30pm: CNN’s entrance poll says that “Hillary Clinton is holding a narrow edge over Barack Obama and John Edwards on the Democratic side.” This is the first time an order has been given in the Obama-Clinton showdown; don’t forget it in no way means Clinton will win — though it could mean she is saved the disgrace of third-place. Out of 118 precincts reporting (which is something close to 8%), it’s 36% for Edwards, 32% for Clinton and 28% for Obama. Once again, this does not include the big precincts so a lot is going to change.
8:20pm: An Obama adviser is talking about a Richardson-Obama deal on Fox… and suggesting that while there is no top-down order people might have seen these rumors online and been pushed thus to go for Obama. Meanwhile, entrance polls suggest 50% of caucus-goers on the Democratic side are first-time voters — that’s close to the DMR’s model.
8:11pm: This is in no way meaningful but six precincts are already reporting on the Democratic side! Edwards has 39% of delegates, 34% for Obama and 25% for Obama. Keep in mind the first precincts to report are smaller rural precincts in which Edwards is stronger. Also, reports are that turnout is huge — which means that it will take a lot of time to count hands.
8:05pm: First entrance polls are out from MSNBC and from CBS: Obama and Clinton on one side, Huckabee and Romney on the other are tied at the entrance (which is not good news for Clinton), but Edwards is trailing.
7:47pm: C-Span just interviewed a young first-time caucus-goer who’s already arrived on site and who has not yet decided who she is voting for; she said she was waiting to talk to others during the deliberation phase. That tells you just about all you need to know about why it’s impossible to know what’s going to happen tonight. Meanwhile, Ambinder reports that “Richardson supporters said to be moving in lockstep to Obama” though he offers no details so it is unclear what he means by that — has there been a deal after all? One more piece of news: It looks like Dodd could be dropping out if he does not get fourth place tonight (which seems rather unlikely).
7:30pm (all times Eastern):
The doors of the caucuses are opening. The Democratic meetings could start in a matter of minutes, while the GOP is going to get going in half-an-hour. C-Span is airing a Democratic caucus, and C-Span 2 is going with a GOP one (though there is definitely much less to see in a Republican caucus). Ambinder is reporting some anecdotal evidence from Cedar Rapids where Democratic turnout was 120 in 04 and that number appears to be shattered today. If that holds across the state, it will bode well for Obama (and, perhaps, for Clinton depending on who these extra-people are).

Original post: Welcome to the first results thread of 2008! Numbers should start trickling in from small precincts as early as 7pm CT (8PM ET) and most precincts should be on their way to reporting by 9:30pm CT. It’s also unclear when the media will be reporting their entrance polls — and don’t forget that there is no reason to think the leader in the entrance poll will still be ahead after realignment and delegate allocation. However, I do believe that the entrance numbers are any many ways much more valuable than the results that will be reported at the end of the night, so I will definitely try to report those as well.

Meanwhile, check my guidelines of what to expect tonight.


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Setting expectations: A few guidelines

I will not make any definite predictions, because I sincerely believe that Obama, Clinton, Edwards, Romney and Huckabee all could emerge victorious tonight. I do have my sense of what is more probable and what would be more surprising, so I will offer a few small guidelines of what I am expecting.

Democrats, first place: All three candidates have very plausible scenarios to win this out: Hillary Clinton will win if she turns out first time voters who are registered Democrats, Barack Obama if he turns out independents, and John Edwards if he rides the second-choice preferences ti victory. My hunch is that a Clinton victory at this point is the least probable scenario, mainly because realignment will play at her disfavor. To put it simply: Clinton has to be leading by at least a few points prior at the entrance of the caucuses to win a plurality of delegates which gives her an extra hurdle that her two rivals don’t have. That said, the benefits of a victory for Clinton would be huge, as she would then be in an ideal position to sweep the rest of the early states. A campaign that now looks so fragile could end up being much easier than predicted (just look at the trajectory of the Gore-Bradley match-up once Gore won New Hampshire).

Meanwhile, I would venture to say that an Edwards victory seems a bit more likely to me than an Obama victory because (1) I do believe independents will make up a larger proportion of voters than ever, but I doubt it will be as much as some are predicting; and (2) realignment should boost Edwards a bit more than it should boost Obama (except if the rumors of deals between Obama and Biden/Richardson are true, which we apparently won’t know for now).

If Obama wins tonight, it will be a huge story that would reverbate massively in later states and would put Clinton’s campaign in shambles. Obama will not have won the nomination yet at all, but he would have defeated the mighty Clinton machine and that will probably lead many in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to take a whole new look at him. The Obama camp did take a risk, however, in letting expectations get slightly out of control in the past few days as one of the state chairs predicting a 200,000 people turnout and Obama repeatedly predicting victory. Compare that to the Clintonites are saying that they “already won just by being competitive” — which is obviously a ridiculous argument considering that they were slightly ahead in polls until two months ago, but it at least sets up their spin in case they lose.

Democrats, third place: I would be more surprised if John Edwards comes in third than if Obama or Clinton do. He is the least dependent on turning out new voters, and he should be boosted up to at least second place as many backers of unviable candidates are likely to line up behind him. However, if turnout really shoots up tremendously and new-comers flood the caucuses, Edwards has the most to lose and could easily fall to third place. The race to avoid third is just as predicated on turnout than the race to be first. And obviously, both Obama and Clinton would face lots of problems going forward if they come in third — especially if the other is the victor.

Republicans, first place: It will be Huckabee or Romney, of course, but I have very little to add to the fact that most polls show a tight race. A few days ago I would have said that Romney has caught up Huckabee and is likely to win, but Huckabee has proved remarkably resilient in the final days, the local media has barely covered Monday’s infamous press conference, and Huckabee will be victorious if evangelicals turn out. But remember that Romney’s campaign is much better organized and looks to be better equipped to get its supporters to caucus, whereas Huckabee has had much less time and money to get his team and lists together. Just because of the few points boost this could give Romney, I would say he is slightly more likely to win it tonight and keep his candidacy alive. (Update: MSNBC is now reporting that both the Romney and Huckabee internal polls have Huckabee narrowly ahead, so Huck’s lead appears very much real with a few more hours to go).

Republicans, lower-tier: The one prediction I will risk: Rudy Giuliani comes in behind Ron Paul, which probably puts him in sixth position. And however much the Giuliani campaign is dismissing results from IA and NH as irrelevant to their big-state strategy, they’re going to have a hard time spinning a sixth place showing. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Ron Paul were to jump to fourth place. As to the McCain surge, I do think Thompson’s numbers are a bit understated in polls compared to McCain’s given that the former’s campaign is much better organized to make the most of Iowa.


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Confusion reigns in Iowa (Updated)

Confusion reigns in Iowa today as to whether the Obama and Biden campaigns are trying to strike a voter-exchange deal. The Washington Post, not known for engaging in unsubstantiated gossip, reported that the two camps were talking earlier today: Obama would get Biden supporters in districts where Biden is unviable, and the Delaware Senator would get some extra Obama voters in places where Obama has “spare voters” (the concept of which, by the way, looks strikingly undemocratic). The Washington Post sourced this from both people in both the Biden and Obama campaigns.

But TPM has gotten both a Biden spokesperson and an Obama spokesperson to say on the record that there is no such talk going on. From Biden’s comes a strong statement: “No discussions have taken place. We have not made any deals or arrangements. We are strong enough on our own.” Hard to know what’s going on at this point, but the stakes are very high: it is a deal like this that could ensure that Obama wins tonight — or at least guarantee that he does not come in third.

Don’t forget that there is no reason for the campaigns to have to publicize such a deal. Its enforcement will rest on precinct captains knowing what’s going on and pushing their supporters towards a candidate. The order can come top-down at the last minute without it being really relayed to the media. Though such behind-the-scenes moves could also muddy anyone’s showing if it looks to be too obscure and hidden from the public. So I for one doubt that Obama and Biden would be close to striking a deal if their spokesperson are denying it that intensely. It is for now impossible to know what is going on — and the situation is looking increasingly confused.

Meanwhile, poor Fred Thompson is stuck having to argue he is not going to drop out in the coming days no matter what happens in Iowa. “This is absolutely made up out of whole cloth,” said Thompson. This has got to be the nightmare of any campaign: Be stuck answering questions on Iowa television about whether you are 24 hours of withdrawing the morning of the first votes being cast. It’s obviously impossible to know what Thompson is thinking. He has suggested he wants to get in second in Iowa — and it is equally absurd for him to withdraw if he does not get that than it is for him to not withdraw if he can’t even get double-digits in the state he has spent so much time in during the past few weeks.

And in New Hampshire, Suffolk released the third installment of its daily tracking poll:

  • Among Republicans, Romney has climbed a bit since yesterday: Down 32% to 23% then, he is now trailing 29% to 25% against McCain. Huckabee is at 12% and Giuliani at 9%.
  • Choice quote from the release: “Giuliani‚Äôs numbers have declined in seven consecutive polls, from a high of 37 percent in March 2007 to 9 percent as of Jan. 3, 2008.”
  • Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton is maintaining a double-digit lead up 39% to 23% for Obama and 17% for Edwards, who is still very much in the running — at least for second place.

Keep these numbers in mind, as they will be very useful to see what the impact of Iowa will be in the coming days. The numbers that will be released tomorrow will still be pre-Iowa (taken on the 2nd and 3rd) but the evolution on Saturday and Sunday will tell us a lot about what kind of bounce the tonight’s winners are getting.

Update: And the confusion continues. Now it is the New York Times which is reporting that Obama has a deal with Richardson to do pretty much what the Washington Post said he was going to do with Biden. The WaPo now is saying that the Biden-Obama deal has fallen through.

The NYT however is saying that the Obama-Richardson arrangement has already been made. In other words: Obama offered to help Biden be fourth and the deal didn’t work out, so he is now going to help Richardson be fourth? Both Richardson and Obama spokesperson are once again denying there is a deal, though the explanation of Richardson’s spokesperson is that “Richardson will be viable in nearly every precinct so the point is moot.” If that’s their reason as to why there is no deal…


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A few more tea-leaves: Watch the proportion of independents

In what is very symbolic of just how confused the race is, a new ARG poll was just released with Clinton looking stronger than ever just as I was ready to launch this post that acknowledges the CW that Obama is favored. The reason is clear: 83% of the ARG sample are registered Democrats, and Clinton gets 38% among those. The controversial DMR poll had a controversial sample of 50% of Democrats only. Turnout will likely end up being between those two numbers — and how much the portion of independents matters is obvious: Obama gets 45% among the 17% non-registered voters. Here are the numbers:

  • Clinton leads 34% to Obama’s 25% and 21% Edwards. Biden has risen to 8%.
  • But it is also obvious that second-choices could sink Clinton: 31% of Biden supporters say they will choose Obama on the second ballot, 25% Edwards and 12% Clinton. Among Richardson voters, it’s 31% Edwards and 19% Obama.
  • Among Republicans, Huckabee has taken the lead back — he was down by 9% a few days ago, underscoring the craziness of the GOP race as well: He is now ahead 29% to 24%. Thompson is third with 13%, with McCain at 11%. Giuliani gets 85 and Ron Paul 6%.

As I said, Clinton’s 9% lead is hardly surprising if ARG is projecting an 83% registered Democrat turnout model — and that seems highly unlikely given Obama’s outreach to independents. The question is just how low that number will get. The higher it stays, the better for Clinton and Edwards.

One more note: The blogosphere and progressives like Krugman are turning against Obama with an increasingly intense passion. Two weeks ago Kos was pretty much endorsing Obama and he has since then retracted his quasi-support and he blasted him again yesterday. Not that Kos is representative of the Left in general, but this switch is still emblematic enough to deserve to be highlighted because this sentiment is being echoed by many commentators at this point. And it is likely to be a Clinton and Edwards talking point in 24 hours if Obama wins tonight (that he won on the strength of non-Democrats):

Obama has made a cottage industry out of attacking the dirty fucking hippies on the left, from labor unions, to Paul Krugman, to Gore and Kerry, to social security, and so on. People think I was being ticky tack with the Gore thing, and in isolation it would’ve been but a minor non-event. But it was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back for me, yet another in a pattern of attacks against Democrats and their constituencies. He is the return of Bill Clinton-style triangulating personified… I’d rather have our candidate elected promising progressive reform, especially in a year where the American people seem to crave such solutions.

It’s useless at this point to speculate on different scenarios and what they might mean. It’s pretty much obvious that Edwards needs a win, that an Obama victory would make him a huge favorite in New Hampshire, that Clinton coming in third could very well sink her faster than is conceivable, that Romney losing would be devastating, that McCain coming in third would give him a boost in NH, and that Giuliani in sixth place could have bad consequences, even with Rudy dismissing the caucuses.

And now add one more consequence: Fred Thompson will likely drop out if he does not get a good showing in Iowa, which most sources are placing at 15%. He would likely endorse McCain soon after he dropped out — and that could be one more boost for the AZ Senator (though not in NH where Thompson is stuck at 3%).


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It’s caucus day: Richardson and Biden going for Obama?

Hard to believe that primary voting is starting, pretty much a year after it all started. And what a time John McCain and Barack Obama have chosen to pick. Look at the last installment of the Zogby tracking poll out this morning:

  • Among Democrats, Hillary Clinton has crashed to 24%, down from 28% yesterday and 30% two days ago. Barack Obama is now at 31%, up from 28% yesterday. And John Edwards is second at 27%. There is very little movement in the second-tier, with Richardson at 7% and Biden at 5%.
  • The Zogby numbers are now very similar to the DMR poll — just as in 2004 when Zogby’s tracking took a few more days to pick-up the Edwards and Kerry surge.
  • Among Republicans, Zogby has Huckabee rising at 31%, Romney staying mostly stable at 25%, while Thompson takes third place alone for the first time at 11%. McCain is at 10%, tied with… Ron Paul who has some momentum. Giuliani is at his lowest ever, at 6%.

And Obama might get a huge boost if this is confirmed, but there are now reports that Joe Biden and Bill Richardson’s precincts captains might encourage their backers to go for Obama if their candidates are unviable. This would truly be huge and such a coordinated move would add many points to Obama and pretty much guarantee a win — it could also spell huge trouble for Edwards whose hopes are pinned on winning second-choice preferences.

Is is true? Biden’s move is being kind of confirmed by a Biden staffer to the HuffPost as he said that Biden backers are likely to migrate to Obama. But Biden’s spokesman said there is “no deal with any other candidate” — though that doesn’t really answer the question, since that is not what the rumor is about. Kucinich, after all, asked his backers to realign for Obama without any deal being struck.

On the other hands, reports about Richardson’s move are being confirmed by the Iowa Independent. And this is huge, huge, huge. Richardson is polling 5-8% in polls, and even half of that moving to Obama would be a tremendous boost that would get him so many more delegates. And it would also be a huge surprise, symbolic of Clinton’s fall: Until a month ago, Bill Richardson constantly rushed to her defense, obviously gunning for being the veep. (Update: Ben Smith is skeptical of any such vote transfer deals).

More than ever, the expectation at this point is that Clinton will get third place — and that Obama is succeeding in turning out in independents and securing a lead — at least in the entrance poll (whether Edwards can overtake him post-caucus politicking is still debated). This does not mean that Clinton will lose at all, obviously, but much of the coverage of the past 3 days has been set by the storyline of Obama’s momentum again — and notice how this is almost entirely due to the DMR’s poll on Monday. Until then, it was all about Edwards’s move and Obama’s troubles. Talk about a poll setting the storyline.


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Democrats: It’s all about turnout

The outcome of the Democratic race is entirely resting on turnout at this point, much more than on the GOP side. Since the Des Moines Register poll was released on Monday, all campaigns and observers are speculating about who will show up to caucus tomorrow night: How many new caucus-goers will there be, and what will be the proportion of independents and Republicans who will go attend the Democratic caucuses?

These have always been questions in the background of coverage of the race, but they picked-up with particular intensity when the DMR poll highlighted just how much increased turnout and independent voter participation could boost Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has actively reached out to non-Democrats in Iowa to get them to come caucus tomorrow and while Hillary Clinton is also heavily depending on first-time caucus goers, a huge boost in turnout would no doubt be due to Obama’s outreach.

But is the Obama campaign disillusional? Gordon Fisher, the Iowa co-chair of the Obama campaign, told Marc Ambinder today that he was projecting a turnout of 200,000. That would be huge: 125,000 Iowans voted in the Democratic caucuses in 2004, and while it appears certain that tomorrow’s turnout will beat that given the unprecedented ground game of the top candidates, 200,000 seems like too much. Possible, sure, and if it happens Obama is in awesome shape — the DMR poll basically models a similar boost.

But rival campaigns are (nervously) mocking the possibility of such a gigantic turnout increase. And Obama staffers have acknowledged that their own internal polls do not project similar proportion of independent. Yet, their internal polls apparently have Obama leading as well — so keep that in mind because it probably means they are also betting on many a significant proportion of independents.

Meanwhile, both Obama and Clinton aired a two-minute ad this evening around the evening news as their closing argument. There really isn’t any big surprise in their ads, so I will not comment on them at length but do watch them if you are interested: the Clinton ad is here, and Obama’s is available here.

And one more interesting story tonight: Hillary Clinton has chosen to spend the last night before the Iowa caucuses on David Letterman — his first show back after Letterman reached an agreement with the writer’s union which is on strike. I guess that there isn’t much more a candidate can do at this point, but how much a boost can Letterman possibly provide in the caucuses? We’ll have to stay tuned to see whether Clinton is going to use this for some kind of announcement.

Meanwhile, Clinton can at least take some comfort in her leads — albeit sometimes small — in today’s New Hampshire polls:

  • Suffolk’s new daily numbers hae Clinton up massively, 37% to 20% with 16% for Edwards.
  • The poll of Franklin Pierce have somewhat tighter numbers: 32% to 28%, with Edwards at 19%.

Notice that Edwards is moving up in New Hampshire and while he is still far from the two front-runners he has set himself in a good position to surge in case he gets a win tomorrow and we could very well have a three-way New Hampshire race in our hands.


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Morning poll delivery: Iowa and New Hampshire all tied up

The daily installment of the Zogby tracking poll is out and it has some minor movement in Barack Obama, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney’s favor:

  • Among Democrats, Obama gains two points and Clinton loses two: They are now tied at 28% for the first time. Edwards gets 26% — putting the three in a complete tie, but that’s before realignment.
  • Among Republicans, the race at the top gets closer and is now separated by only 2 points: 28% to 26% in Huckabee’s favor (it was 29-25 yesterday). Behind, John McCain holds at 12% and Thompson rises at 12%.

Zogby points out that Obama is gaining among independents and, though he warns that the gains are small, how much Obama can rely on independents has become the dominant story in these finals days because of the DMR poll. In 2004, Zogby’s tracking caught the Edwards rise but a few days late — is something similar happening here?

Meanwhile, CNN/WMUR has a new poll from New Hampshire:

  • In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton leads 34% to 30% for Obama, with Edwards at 17%.
  • This is a slight improvement from the last CNN poll of two weeks ago in which Obama was up 30% to 28%.
  • In the GOP race, Romney and McCain are tied at 29%, with Giuliani at 12% and Huckabee at 10%. Don’t forget that McCain led in his first poll from the state yesterday, and we have seen a few polls with the two candidates tied — which in itself is a huge surge for McCain. The trendlines are clearly in his favor but at this point any movement will be dictated by the results of Iowa on Thursday.

One other key statistic: 63% of independents who are planning on voting in NH say they will do so in the Democratic primary. That number was 54% a month ago. McCain and Obama are the two candidates who want to benefit from independents, so if that number goes down again it would hurt Obama and benefit McCain, and vice-versa. This competition is one of the most fascinating dynamics of the campaign since it atypically cuts across party lines.

And one another news item this morning: The Politico is now reporting that the total amount of money the Huckabee campaign spent on the negative anti-Romney material over the week-end (the material which the candidate then scraped though he showed some of it to the press) was $150,000. For a campaign with scarce resources, that’s a pretty large sum. Could Huckabee not have made up his mind before shooting the ads? It’s not as if he was not told of the decision prior to the preparations starting.


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Iowa Update: Fourth poll of the day, and the tone of the Huckabee campaign

Strategic Vision has been faithfully releasing a poll of the Iowa caucuses every week and here is their latest delivery:

  • In the Democratic race, Barack Obama is ahead with 32% with John Edwards at 29% and Hillary Clinton at 27%. Last week, Strategic Vision had Obama at 30%, Clinton at 29% and Edwards at 28%. And that was a decline for Obama, who was up 3% the week before and had an 8 point lead the prior week.
  • Note, however, that this is the only one of the day’s four polls that has Obama ahead. As we saw with yesterday’s DMR poll, there is a very clear factor explaining the variations: Every pollster is using a different turnout model, and it appears impossible today to predict who will turn out on Thursday night; and what will be the proportion of first-time caucus goers?
  • Among Republicans, Mitt Romney is rising and has erased much of Huckabee’s surge: He is ahead today by a tiny 30% to 28%. Last week, Huckabee was up 29% to 27%, and two weeks ago it was 31% to 25%. The trendline in Romney’s favor is clear, and confirms other Iowa polls released today
  • But it is the numbers behind that are truly stunning: John McCain now reaches 16%, with Fred Thompson at 13%. That is a shocking number for McCain, a candidate who has barely campaigned in Iowa for the past few months (though it’s not like the other lower-tier candidates but Thompson have). Last week, McCain got 13% and 8% two weeks ago. Here too, this trend is confirmed by all other polls.

Interestingly, GOP Senator Grassley of Iowa retracted his earlier prediction that Romney would win the caucuses, saying that it had become too close to call. What is strange is that Grassley issued that bold prediction at the height of Huckabee’s surge when the former Arkansas Governor looked unstoppable. And now that Romney is looking to have a chance to pull off a victory again, Grassley suddenly senses the depth of movement in Huckabee’s favor?!

More seriously, the big story since yesterday’s now infamous Huckabee press conference is the tone of his campaign. He pledged to stay positive in the last 3 days of the campaign — and he made a big show out of it, assembling reporters and accusing them of cynicism. So the press cannot be blamed for scrutinizing Huckabee very closely to see if he is just showing off or if he is serious. And that gets us a deluge of stories about Huckabee’s subtle digs at Romney (today on CNN) or this report of how Huckabee surrogate Chuck Norris (one of the first big Huckabee endorsers) blasted Romney today in Huckabee’s presence without the candidate intervening.

As has been already noted, the local media looks to be giving Huckabee somewhat of a pass, but the national press is having a field day with Huckabee’s hypocritically positive tone since his decision to air that attack ad during the press conference. Some of that coverage is bound to trickle down to caucus-goers (who, after all, must be committed politicos to go and caucus for hours). And many of the questions aimed at Huckabee are now reflecting this skepticism, not a good thing to have going for you 48 hours before an election.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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