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May 6th polls suggest split decision, with Clinton gaining some ground in NC

Published
by
Taniel
on April 28, 2008
in IN-Dem and NC-Dem
. 9 Comments

May 6th now appears to be Barack Obama’s last hope to force Hillary Clinton out of the race before the end of primary season. The latest polls from Indiana and North Carolina suggest a split decision, a result that would be most damaging to Clinton’s campaign though not enough to force her out of the race:

  • Survey USA released a poll from Indiana showing Clinton in the lead, 52% to 43%. This is the same winning margin Clinton enjoyed at the beginning of April; two weeks ago, she led by 16%.
  • The partisan gap is less dramatic than in some other Indiana polls we have seen, but Clinton polls much better among registered Democrats (+12%) while Obama narrowly leads among registered Republicans and independents. As expected, Obama’s strongest regions are Indianapolis (where he leads by 9%) and Northern Indiana (bordering Illinois), but he only has a statistically insignificant 1% edge in the latter.
  • In North Carolina, meanwhile, ARG finds Obama leading by 52% to 42%. This is essentially the same margin as last week, when Obama lead by 11%.
  • Clinton keeps the race within single-digits among registered Democrats, 51% to 43%, while Obama trounces her 58% to 35% among independents.
  • Update: Well, well, well: PPP just released its latest poll from North Carolina and, while Obama is still way ahead, there is some major movement in Clinton’s direction. Obama leads 51% to 39%; last week, he was ahead by 25% so his lead has been cut by half since the Pennsylvania primary.
  • PPP had been showing 20%+ Obama leads in North Carolina for a few weeks now, so last week’s survey wasn’t isolated. Note that PPP’s turnout model appears to be favorable to Obama; PPP predicted a 4% victory for Barack in PA. Did they change their turnout model accordingly, or did Clinton pick up 13% within the original model?

In order to score a credible enough victory to be taken seriously in the final stretch (not the type of victory that would change the fundamentals of the race), Clinton does not need to win both states on May 6th but she cannot afford a significant loss in North Carolina; she probably has to keep the margin well within single-digits but polls confirm that will be a tall order for her. In Indiana, Clinton needs a comfortable victory of the size she enjoyed in Ohio and Pennsylvania, especially considering that the latter two were demographically better suited for her.

ARG, PPP and SUSA suggest that Clinton can meet such expectations; a mid-single digit North Carolina loss and a double-digit Indiana victory are within her grasp and a small shift in her favor in the next week would easily push her above the threshold in both states. Note, however, that Clinton’s numbers in Indiana are among the most favorable to Clinton that are being recorded; some Indiana surveys have Obama leading (LA Times/Bloomberg, for instance).

Furthermore, Clinton benefited from a post-Pennsylvania bounce this week that is likely reflected in these numbers. Whether she can keep her momentum going, of course, is the question. For now, Gallup’s latest tracking poll suggests that Clinton has managed to close the gap with Obama and challenged his claim to inevitability but she has not wrestled away an advantage. The two candidates have been in a statistical tie for three days now, with Obama regaining the smallest of edges today (47% to 46%; in the general election, Clinton is still leading McCain by 3% while Obama is tied with the Republican).

Friday polls: Will Clinton get a post-PA boost?

Published
by
Taniel
on April 25, 2008
in IN-Dem, MA-Pres, MA-Sen, Nat-Dem and PA-Pres
. 15 Comments

Three days after the Pennsylvania primary, Hillary Clinton might have gotten a boost from her Tuesday victory if we believe Gallup’s tracking poll. Clinton has recovered from a 10% deficit on April 22nd and has forced a statistical tie, with Obama ahead 48% to 47% in today’s results which include interviews conducted on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Gallup adds, “Support for Clinton is significantly higher in these post-primary interviews than it was just prior to her Pennsylvania victory.” Gallup also finds Clinton jumping to a lead against McCain, 47% to 45%, while Obama narrowly trails, 46% to 45% — the first time in a while Clinton’s trendline is better than Obama’s in Gallup.

Clinton benefited from a similar boost of support in the days immediately following the ABC debate but the race quickly fell back to its pre-debate form. Also, Rasmussen’s tracking finds no tightening of the race — though it is on a four-day average rather than a three-day one like Gallup, so momentum swings take a longer time to register. In the general, Rasmussen finds a similar improvement for Democrats; while McCain is typically strong in Rasmussen, he is today tied with Obama and leads Clinton by 2, 47% to 45%.

The two questions in the coming days will thus be: Will Clinton confirm and maintain a boost? And will that momentum affect numbers in Indiana and North Carolina? For now, the trendline seems to be negative for her in Indiana, though she is certainly in a position to win as a new poll indicates:

  • ARG, who came closer in PA than in previous contests, finds Clinton ahead 50% to 45%. At the beginning of April, Clinton was ahead 53% to 44%.
  • The partisanship gap is fascinating: Clinton leads by 20% among registered Democrats, Obama is ahead by 31% among independents and Republicans.

What Clinton wouldn’t give to have Indiana be a closed primary like Indiana… This poll breaks a string of surveys showing a small lead for Obama, and it confirms that Indiana is one of the only states since February 5th in which there is actual uncertainty as to who will win, making the job of setting expectations a bit easier. With both candidates now going all-out in May 6th states, these numbers will certainly evolve in the coming 10 days.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen released two important general election polls:

  • First, a poll from Pennsylvania finds that both Democrats have lost ground against McCain in the past two weeks — suggesting that the increased negativity of the final days might have undermined their appeal. Clinton is now leading McCain 47% to 42% (she led by 9% two weeks ago); Obama trails 44% to 43% (he led by 8% two weeks ago).
  • Clinton gets 78% of registered Democrats, Obama only 65%; unfortunately for the Illinois Senator, that’s certainly not an outlier. Dozens of polls confirm that he has trouble breaking even the 70% mark among registered Democrats.
  • In Massachusetts, both Democrats are ahead by double-digits, with Clinton trouncing McCain 55% to 36% and Obama ahead by a narrower 51% to 39%.

Both sets of numbers are significant. In Massachusetts, first, where a consistent wave of polls has shown that Obama could (stunningly) be in trouble against McCain; the most recent poll has him only ahead by 2%. The Rasmussen poll does show Obama trailing McCain by 5% among independents, suggesting that McCain’s appeal among Northeast indies remains strong. Naturally, it is difficult to imagine a Democrat winning the White House without the 12 EVs of MA (even McGovern got them in 72!).

As for Pennsylvania, as troubling as those numbers are for Dems, this is probably as bad as it is going to get for the two Democrats to appeal to each other’s supporters. The exit polls on Tuesday suggested that a higher number of voters than usual would be dissatisfied if the candidate they weren’t supporting got the nomination. At least some of those will end up joining the Democratic side; the exact proportion that will stay away will determine the nominee’s fate come November.

On a last polling note, Rasmussen also released a survey of the Massachusetts Senate race and finds John Kerry trouncing his Republican opponents and staying above 50%; he leads Jeff Beaty 55% to 30% and Jim Ogonowski (who came close to picking up a blue district in a special election in 2007) 53% to 31%. Kerry is likely to coast to re-election but it is worth pointing out that an entrenched incumbent like him could have hoped to come even further ahead against mostly unknown Republicans.

Thursday polls: Indiana is a rare toss-up

Published
by
Taniel
on April 25, 2008
in IN-Dem, IN-Pres, MN-Pres, MN-Sen and NV-Pres
. 18 Comments

We have seen remarkably few polls from Indiana so far but Research 2000 sought to correct that anomaly today by releasing a survey from the Hoosier state:

  • Obama edges out Clinton 48% to 47%, a slight improvement from the previous R2000 poll that had Clinton leading by 3%.
  • In the general election, McCain beats both Democrats but by margins that are narrower than those Bush enjoyed in 2000 and 2004. He leads Obama 51% to 43% and Clinton 52% to 41%.
  • Update: Selzer & Co (which is I believe the same pollster that conducts the Des Moines Register poll) released another Indiana survey tonight, also showing Obama up within the margin of error, 41% to 38%.
  • And in truly stunning general election numbers, Obama leads McCain 49% to 41% while Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%.

There have been few states in which there has been genuine uncertainty as to who would win rather than suspense about the margin. Texas was certainly the last state in which we went into Election Day with no favorite, but even there Clinton had gone into it the campaign as a favorite. This is why the next two week promise to be so much fun: There will be an actual measure by which to judge candidates’ performances rather than the always subjective metric of what losing margin constitutes a moral victory! That said, Clinton will need more than just a narrow victory, but this initial indecisiveness suggests she might have trouble getting there.

As for the general election, it would certainly be very impressive for the Democratic nominee to even put Indiana in play, as the state has not voted for a Democratic nominee since 1964. That said, the Selzer poll does look like an outlier; there have been other general election polls from Indiana and none suggests that McCain is in that much danger here. Not to mention that if McCain is in danger of losing Indiana come November he probably will be in even worse shape in neighboring Midwestern states such as Iowa and Ohio — not that the Obama campaign necessarily thinks it has a good chance of winning the latter. In a memo it distributed today to superdelegates and that the Washington Post obtained, the campaign lists what states Obama will concentrate on, classifying them as “big states,” “traditional battlegrounds” and “new states” (CO and VA, but also TX, ND and MT). This was meant to be a memo about electability, which explains the inclusion of TX, ND and MT as there have been some polls lately in which Obama has been strong but not Clinton. But much more shocking is that Florida and Ohio have just been left out of the memo!

Two other general election surveys were released over the past two days by Rasmussen:

  • In Minnesota, Obama crushes McCain 52% to 37%. Clinton is ahead by a much narrower 47% to 42%. This is a significant improvement for both Democrats; a month ago, Obama lead McCain by 4 and Clinton trailed by 1.
  • In Nevada, however, another crucial swing state that is near the top of the Democrats’ pick-up list, McCain is leading both Democrats, 48% to 43% against Obama and 48% to 38% against Clinton — a rare case in which there the proportion of undecided voters is much higher in Hillary’s match-up.
  • Last month, both Democrats led McCain — Obama by 4%, which was already a decline from the month before when Obama led by 12%.

Both of these states will be very disputed all the way to November. Minnesota is one of the blue states the GOP is assured of contesting; not only did it only narrowly reject Bush in 2004, but the GOP convention will be held in St. Paul this year and MN Governor Pawlenty is at the top of McCain’s vice-presidential list. As for Nevada, Democrats know they must make inroads in the West if they want to survive the census reallocation that will have kicked in by the next presidential election. They have room to grow in the region and the Obama campaign clearly believes that the West (starting with Colorado) is fertile ground for the Illinois Senator.

Finally, Rasmussen also released a Senate poll from Minnesota:

  • It shows Senator Norm Coleman leading Al Franken 50% to 43%. This is a second month in a row the Republican is improving his position since trailing 49-46 in February. Last month, Coleman was leading by 2%, 48-46.

This is the first time Coleman is reaching 50% in a Rasmussen poll, the vulnerability threshold no incumbent wants to fall under. Note that Franken’s trajectory is going downward just as he looks to be securing the DFL’s nomination. This race is probably the purest Senate toss-up along with Alaska’s Senate race, as all other races more or less clearly lean towards the incumbent or challenging party. With Democrats unable to make much of a move right now in Maine and Oregon, Franken could benefit from more DSCC attention.

May 6th: Two crucial contests, but for different reasons

Published
by
Taniel
on April 24, 2008
in IN-Dem and NC-Dem
. 12 Comments

Clinton having survived to fight another day, all eyes turn to May 6th contexts, Indiana and North Carolina. Both candidates are now scheduled to criss-cross the states, and Indiana is likely to be portrayed as more crucial; but both states are very important to this nomination battle, but for very different reasons. Just like on March 4th and on April 22nd, Clinton needs to have solid results to survive; but those will be defined differently.

In Indiana, there are no expectations. This is perhaps the first state since Maine in which there is no favorite going in the contest. This is due first to the absence of polls. There have only been five surveys of Indiana in the past 2 months, three of which have been conducted by SUSA. To make matters more confusing, the three SUSA polls have been very inconclusive, with one showing a single-digit Clinton lead, the second a double-digit Clinton lead, and the third a single-digit Obama lead; among other pollsters, ARG shows Clinton ahead and Bloomberg Obama. None of this is particularly helpful to define the conventional wisdom.

More importantly, Indiana’s demographics make it difficult to predict the result. With Obama and Clinton holding very firmly to their electoral coalitions, almost every contest has been determined by a demographic logic and the state’s racial and class breakdown. Going into Pennsylvania, Clinton was a heavy favorite for just this reason and, by performing exactly as she had in Ohio among all the same groups, she held strong. Indiana, on the other hand, is a more complex picture (perhaps not seen since Wisconsin).

Large parts of the state are likely to go for Clinton by huge margins, holding to patterns we have been seeing in places like rural Ohio and rural Pennsylvania. But don’t forget Indiana is a heavily red state; a very large portion of Democratic votes is concentrated in urban Indianapolis where Obama should come in strong, and that alone should outweigh Clinton’s strengths in heavily Republican areas. Also, the Northwest of the state is close to Illinois and receives Chicago television, so Obama will be fighting on his home turf in that region. Read the Politico’s piece on Indiana demography for a more complete picture.

That Indiana is likely to be tight does not mean that Clinton can get away with a small victory, however. Just as in Pennsylvania, a win will allow her to stay in the race and fight on until April 22nd; but she also has to win convincingly to offset the likely Obama triumph in North Carolina. For Clinton to be described as having had a good night on May 6th, her Indiana victory needs to be impressive enough to overshadow the margin Obama gets in North Carolina. That is certainly a tall order given that the Illinois Senator is favored in the Southern state while Clinton is not in Indiana; but those are the tough playing field in which Clinton must play.

The stakes of North Carolina, then, are as crucial as those of Indiana. If Clinton does not manage to remain at a decent level, she is unlikely to receive any traction at all out of May 6th no matter what happens in Indiana. North Carolina is the biggest state that is left to vote, and its demographics are not as damaging to Clinton as those of other Southern states. If Obama scores a blowout of South Carolina’s proportions or even just a convincing double-digit victory, Clinton will fall very far behind in the popular vote and she will have trouble explaining why she is staying in the race. Remember, her campaign is now premised on the argument that Democratic voters are having second thoughts and that they are denying Obama the nomination.

As important will be the breakdown of the vote in North Carolina; Obama has posted better numbers in some primaries than in Pennsylvania among the voting groups he is weakest in; in neighboring Virginia, for instance. Just as in Pennsylvania, the exit polls will be scrutinized for the vote of blue-collar voters and whites; Obama and Clinton would be well-advised to spend a lot of time courting those voters in North Carolina. If he can show that those groups meaningfully moved towards him, it could offset Clinton’s argument that he is unelectable as much as any result in Indiana.

Most people are now saying that Clinton would only have to withdraw if she were to lose Indiana; but her position would become as untenable if Obama got great results in North Carolina. That said, the odds right now still favor a Clinton survival. She is in a position to win the Hoosier state and she has not collapsed in North Carolina. Some polls show her trailing by more than 20%, but SUSA’s latest poll released on Tuesday shows Obama up single-digits, 50% to 41%. And in a familiar pattern, Obama’s lead is pulled upward by independent voters, who support him by 22%.

A bad polling day for Clinton

Published
by
Taniel
on April 18, 2008
in CO-Pres, IN-Dem, IN-Pres, NY-Pres, PA-Dem and WA-Pres
. 11 Comments

It is ironic that, on a day in which most state polls look bad for Hillary Clinton, the most talked about survey is Gallup’s tracking poll. After 11 days by a statistically significant margin, Hillary Clinton has moved within the margin of error, 47%to 44%. That’s a 4% improvement since yesterday and a 7% improvement in the past 3 days — implying the movement started before the ABC debate.

If this movement is confirmed in the coming days and if the debate is found to move numbers towards Clinton, it would naturally be a significant development. But the most important polls released today suggest that Clinton is declining. A Newsweek survey shows Obama gaining a tremendous amount of ground in the past month, now coming in 19% ahead of his rival, 54% to 35%. If a few more polls confirm the existence of this massive a gap, it will be increasingly difficult for Clinton to hold off the superdelegate flight.

But it is the three polls from the upcoming primaries that are the most threatening to her survival past Tuesday and past May 6th:

  • A Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania, taken entirely yesterday, shows Clinton leading by a tight 47% to 44%. In the previous Rasmussen poll, released on Monday, Clinton was up by 9%.
  • Zogby’s tracking Pennsylvania tracking poll, meanwhile, shows Clinton leading by a narrow 47% to 43%. Yesterday, she was only ahead 45% to 44%, so today’s numbers are a slight post-debate improvement. Zogby adds, however, that “22% of Catholic Democrats and 18% of white Democrats choose McCain against Obama.”
  • Meanwhile, the most surprising poll comes from Indiana: At the beginning of the week, SUSA found Clinton leading by 16%. Today, a new SUSA poll (conducted entirely before the debate) finds Obama ahead by 5%, 50% to 45%.
  • The two SUSA polls were not conducted with the same turnout model or for the same outlet; so the two surveys are not directly comparable. However, the poll is clearly bad news for Hillary; the LA Time’s poll a few days ago also showed Obama ahead by 5%.

There have been two movements in Pennsylvania polls. First, Obama picked up ground and threatened Clinton’s dominance; then, Clinton managed to rebound and create some space. Polls today and yesterday suggest that the electorate is very volatile right now and most anything could happen on Tuesday.

Complicating matters for Clinton is that she will have to immediately work to survive May 6th if she gets past April 22nd. North Carolina has been a lost cause for a while, but it looked like Indiana held premise for Hillary — the LA Times and latest SUSA poll indicate that Clinton will not have an easy time ensuring solid results in three weeks.

Finally, we also got interesting general election polls results today:

  • Newsweek’s national poll shows both Democrats ahead of McCain by the same narrow margin, 48% to 44% for Obama and 47% to 43% for Clinton.
  • In Indiana, SUSA also conducted a general election poll and found a much tighter contest than what we have been accustomed to in the state: McCain leads Obama 51% to 44%. He is ahead of Clinton 53% to 42%. Bush got 60% and 57% in 2000 and 2004.
  • In Washington, SUSA (again) found both Democrats leading McCain by differing margins: Obama leads 53% to 40%, while Clinton is ahead 48% to 45%. There is a huge difference among independents: Clinton loses them by 3%, Obama wins by 21%.
  • In Colorado, meanwhile, Obama leads 46% to 43% against McCain; Clinton is trounced 50% to 46%.
  • Finally, a Quinnipiac poll of New York shows McCain too close for comfort (just as yesterday’s poll from SUSA) with Clinton ahead 49% to 37% despite only getting 65% of the black vote; Obama is held in single-digits, 47% to 39%.

One of the most consistent electability results is that Obama is much stronger than Clinton among independents out West — Oregon, Washington and Colorado have consistently shown Clinton faring much worse than Obama. In fact, Colorado is one of the first states the Obama campaign they can take away from the Republican column; it is at the top of Obama’s “alternative electoral map” that does not go through states like Ohio and Florida. On the other hand, Obama is more in danger in some of the bluest states, with SUSA yesterday showing him leading in single-digits in CA, NY and MA — a dangerous finding confirmed by today’s Quinnipiac poll.

As more ads come in, polls from upcoming primaries are all over the place

Published
by
Taniel
on April 15, 2008
in IN-Dem, KY-Dem, NC-Dem and PA-Dem
. 10 Comments

There are a lot of polls coming in today from many different primaries, and we are forced to conclude that the numbers are all over the place, particularly in Pennsylvania and Indiana where it looks like anything could happen.

Pennsylvania, first, where 3 polls this morning showed Clinton up 14, 5 and 9. Two new surveys released this afternoon show Hillary leading by single digits:

  • LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Hillary leading in Pennsylvania 46% to 41%. The survey was conducted Thursday through Monday, so partly before bittergate.
  • Strategic Vision, meanwhile, finds Clinton increasing her lead by four percent in a week; she is now ahead 49% to 40%.

My analysis of the Keystone state’s primary does not differ form this morning’s, when I explained that it is difficult to assess what effect Obama’s comments have had, but that the Clinton campaign at least has to be happy that it has stopped the bleeding and the steady plunge it went through for 2 weeks or so. This is not because Obama isn’t trying, however: he is outspending Clinton 5:1 on Pennsylvania cable TV (!), which is truly a huge proportion.

Today, Obama launched his response ad (you can view it here) to the attack ad Clinton started airing yesterday centering on Obama’s remarks. The response ad shows Clinton being jeered when trying to bring up an attack line against her rival, and then goes on to say that we should be looking to work on concrete problems and leave politics as usual behind. The ad is a rather typical response to an attack ad by a front-runner. Indeed, front-runners have nothing to gain from attacking back and they try to portray themselves above the fray (which is exactly what Clinton did for months in the fall when Edwards and Obama were going after her). It is also interesting that the ad never mentions what Clinton is attacking Obama on, so Obama is not using this opportunity to defend himself against criticism.

If Clinton survives Pennsylvania (and with a couple of polls today showing her on the verge of the “Ohio threshold,” she is more than ever in a position to), the race will go on to North Carolina and Indiana (on May 6th). A few weeks later would come Kentucky (May 20th). We got a poll from each of these 3 races today, with good news for both candidates:

  • In North Carolina, which Obama is heavily favored to win, the LA Times poll shows him leading 47% to 34%.
  • In Indiana, where there is less of a defined favorite, Obama posts a 50% to 45% lead (still LA Times).
  • In Kentucky, finally, SUSA finds that Clinton demolishes Obama 62% to 26%… much more than a 2:1 margin. SUSA’s previous poll already had Clinton way up, 58% to 29%.

The most interesting numbers among this set is the Indiana survey. However much the primary has no clear favorite, the two only polls we have gotten from the state have shown Clinton lead. They have both been released from SUSA, and the latest, yesterday, had her leading by 16%. A conventional wisdom was starting to set in, then, that Indiana was Clinton’s to lose. The LA Times reestablishes some balance in our expectations. But it is clear that Clinton needs a comfortable win here on May 6th; she will need it to offset the likely loss of North Carolina.

Finally, an interesting question in Pennsylvania is what effect the prolonged primary has on the general election; there have been a number of polls suggesting that Democrats are improving their position in the Keystone state against McCain and that their millions spent on tv are helping them in the general. Strategic Vision’s poll, however, suggests the exact opposite, as this is the second week in a row that McCain is gaining. Last week, Clinton was leading by 6% and Obama trailing by 5%. In this week’s poll, Obama is led 49% to 39% and Clinton trails 47% to 44%.

Monday polls: Mixed general election numbers, as Clinton gains in Indiana

Published
by
Taniel
on April 14, 2008
in FL-Pres, IN-Dem, MI-Pres, NC-Dem, NC-Pres and PA-Pres
. 41 Comments

It looks like this morning’s ARG poll will be the only numbers out of Pennsylvania’s primary we will see today. But numerous general election surveys were released today, as well as a primary poll from the very important state of Indiana. (This survey was conducted from Friday to Sunday, so many interviews were conducted while people were being bombarded with stories about Obama’s comments.)

  • SUSA finds Clinton expanding her lead in the May 6th primary, now ahead 55% to 39%. This includes a 27% lead among registered Democrats, with Obama owing his survival to registered Republicans (+20%) and independents (+12%).

If Clinton survives Pennsylvania, she will have to strike again on May 6th, the next primary day. That involves getting a big victory in Indiana; the assumption until the first SUSA poll was released was that the state would be evenly divided, but Hillary looks strong with 3 weeks to go; her strength among registered Democrats is very important, for the main argument she has left with superdelegates is Obama’s weakness among Dems, particularly blue-collar voters. Combine SUSA’s numbers from Indiana with the string of recent Pennsylvania polls showing Clinton on the rebound, and voters are showing no intention of forcing the Democratic primary to come to a close.

But Clinton also needs to stay close in North Carolina, which also votes on May 6th. She has no room for error, and a blow-out in NC would offset any convincing victory she gets in Indiana — both delegate-wise and symbolically. And this is a state Clinton has been unable to move numbers in for quite some time now:

  • PPP’s latest poll, released this afternoon, shows Clinton leading 54% to 34%. This is the third week the margin has held statistically stable.

Depending on how large victories Clinton gets in Indiana and Pennsylvania, she could have some wiggle room in North Carolina. But this primary will be the largest remaining once Pennsylvania gets done on April 22nd, so there is no doubt a 20% defeat would be very damaging.

Meanwhile, there were a number of general election polls released today — and they bring good and bad news for all three candidates:

  • In Pennsylvania, a Temple University poll (conducted over a long period) shows both Democrats posting a large lead against McCain. Clinton is up 51% to 40%, while Obama leads 47% to 40%.
  • In Michigan, renown pollster EPIC-MRA finds Obama edging McCain 43% to 41%, while Clinton is trounced 46% to 37%.
  • Proof of McCain’s strength is supplied by the generic numbers, as he overperforms: A generic Democrat leads a generic Republican 43% to 31%.
  • In Florida, Clinton edges out McCain 45% to 44%; but the Republican trounces Obama by a stunningly large margin, 53% to 38%. McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of voters, far outpacing Clinton (49%) and Obama (42%).
  • In North Carolina, Rasmussen finds that it is Obama who is surprisingly strong, as he ties McCain at 47% in a traditionally red state; McCain leads Clinton 51% to 40%.

The Pennsylvania numbers are interesting in that they are further evidence that Democrats might be gaining a boost in the Keystone state because of the extended primary — something I discussed in more detail just last week. With both Democrats spending millions on ads in mostly positive advertisement, they are gaining a crucial edge on McCain in one of the most important battlegrounds of the country.

On the other hand, Michigan has to be considered an increasingly worrisome state for Democrats. This is a must-win state for them, one that flirted with Bush in 2000 and 2004 but about which Democrats were never that worried. Even if Obama performs much better than Clinton, he is locked in a toss-up against the Arizona Senator in a contest Democrats should have a clear edge on given how important the economy is for Michigan.

Finally, it is starting to look quite consistently that Obama would have more difficulty than Clinton in Florida (the Rasmussen poll looks very similar to the Quinnipiac survey released last week); some even say that an Obama campaign would pretty much give up on the Sunshine state. Obama, of course, has his own red states that he would make competitive and his campaign argues that he would create a new electoral map; Clinton has more difficulty in (Colorado, for instance). North Carolina, Rasmussen suggests, is also one of them.

Poll roundup: Clinton stays ahead in Indiana, Pennsylvania

Published
by
Taniel
on April 4, 2008
in IN-Dem, ME-Pres and PA-Dem
. 14 Comments

Two new primary polls today should bring some comfort to Hillary Clinton: While her Pennsylvania numbers are declining in every survey, not all polls are agreeing as to the magnitude of her plunge, leaving her hope that she is still in striking distance of a convincing result; and she also has something to look forward to after April 22nd:

  • Today’s Pennsylvania poll comes to us from Muhlenberg College and it shows Clinton ahead 49% to 38%. This is a 3% drop for her from the previous survey from this pollster.

  • Meanwhile, a poll from Indiana finds Clinton ahead 53% to 44%. She is ahead by 21% among registered Democrats but trailing by 33% among independents.

It is naturally impossible to determine exactly what winning margin Clinton would need in Pennsylvania to keep herself alive. A double-digit victory (call it the “Ohio threshold”) seems to be the minimum most people agree she needs to reach to claim any sort of momentum into the May contests; and even that size a win will probably have to be seen as a disappointment, given that she was posting a far bigger lead mid-March. But do remember that Clinton’s hope of suddenly taking control no longer rest on the pledge delegate count (which she pretty much has lost) but on whatever can make superdelegates reconsider, an objective that is inherently subjective.

One last note on primary polling: SUSA announced today that it will release the first public poll of the Oregon primary next week, a welcome move that should give us an idea of what to expect in this May 20th contest. The conventional wisdom believes Obama to be massively favored here, based on (1) Clinton’s general weakness in the Northwest (as evidenced by the weakness of her general election numbers there) and (2) the size of Obama’s win in Washington. But I would caution against betting on a significant Barack win in Oregon for now. While it is true that Obama crushed Clinton 2:1 in Washington’s caucuses, he won by a much narrower in the state’s primaries (51% to 45%).

Finally, we even got a general election poll today from the state of Maine:

  • Rasmussen came out with a survey showing both Democrats leading McCain, 47% to 42% for Clinton and 49% to 39% for Obama.

Rasmussen did not provide the breakdown along congressional districts, a very significant measure given that Maine is one of only two states that does not award its EVs winner-take-all. Rather, it allocates two statewide and one for each (of the two) congressional districts. Kerry and Gore both swept all of the state’s electoral votes in 2000 and 2004 but given McCain’s relative strength in the Northeast he could have a shot at picking-up if not the entire state at least a lone electoral vote.

Thursday polls: In PA, Obama gains on Clinton but trails McCain

Published
by
Taniel
on April 4, 2008
in IN-Dem, NJ-Pres, PA-Dem and PA-Pres
. 2 Comments

Pennsylvania polls have been coming in at a furious rhythm these past 3 days, with PPP releaseing the first poll showing Obama ahead just yesterday. While other polls show Clinton ahead (sometimes comfortably), all show the front-runner to win the state’s April 22nd primary clearly declining. Today, two new polls confirm that the race has indeed tightened and is getting close to the tipping point:

  • An Insider Advantage poll finds Clinton on “life support,” clinging to a 45% to 43% lead. To make matters worse, Obama clearly underperforms in the black vote in this poll (he only gets 56%), and he is sure to get much higher on Election Day meaning that Clinton is heading to defeat and she does not get a larger share of the white vote (she is ahead 49% to 40%).
  • A slightly bigger lead for Clinton in Strategic Vision’s survey, but here again the trendline is favoring her opponent: She is leading Obama 49% to 41%, a respectable 8% edge that pales in comparison to the 18% lead she enjoyed last month.

The tightening of the Pennsylvania race does contain some possibility for the New York Senator, as it will make people (and Obama) pay much closer attention to the Keystone state and will thus maximize the momentum Clinton can get out of the primary if she can bounce back to the sort of number she was posting 10 days ago.

But besides that slightly comforting thought this is obviously disastrous news for Clinton. It forces her to pay attention to a state she thought was in the bag instead of two states (NC, IN) that are coming two weeks later and that are even more dangerous for her campaign. Remember, every Election Day from now until June 3rd could mean instant death for Hillary if she performs poorly. It also will not help her convince superdelegates that she still has a chance to win the nomination at a time Obama is quickly picking up support.

Research 2000, meanwhile, released a primary poll from Indiana:

  • It shows Clinton ahead 49% to 46% against Obama.
  • 22% of Clinton supporters say they will vote for McCain over Obama in the general, and 16% of Obama supporters say the same if Clinton is the nominee.

This is only the second poll from Indiana that has been released since mid-February, and it follows SUSA’s survey released earlier this week that showed Clinton up 9%. Given that no one had any idea who to favor in IN, it has to be a relief for Clinton to see that she is not trailing. To survive May 6th, however, she is going to have to improve these numbers and get a big Indiana victory, especially if the North Carolina polls hold and Obama carries that state comfortably.

Finally, two very interesting general election polls were released today from Pennsylvania and New Jersey:

  • In Pennsylvania, Strategic Vision complemented its primary poll with a general election survey, finding Clinton leading McCain 47% to 41%; but the Republican leads Obama 47% to 42%.
  • In New Jersey, meanwhile, Clinton and Obama have the same winning margin: 48% to 43% for Clinton, 47% to 42% for Obama.

One poll showing Clinton more electable, the other showing no difference… As usual, there is no consistency in the electability debate except if we look at the internals (as I explained yesterday in my analysis of the Quinnipiac surveys): Obama and Clinton’s differences in subgroups generally holds across polls, and it does again in this New Jersey poll:

  • Clinton, as usual, is polling better among registered Democrats (77% versus 70% for Obama).
  • Obama, as usual, does better among independents (edging out McCain 38% to 37% while Clinton is crushed 48% to 23%) and registered Republicans (14% instead of 8%).

Primary update: Stunner in Pennsylvania

Published
by
Taniel
on April 2, 2008
in IN-Dem and PA-Dem
. 11 Comments

Yesterday, two polls showed Hillary Clinton’s Pennsylvania lead shrinking in what is a must-win state for her campaign; yet, she kept her lead in a contest in which conventional wisdom, demographics and all polls holds her to be a heavy favorite. But today, we get a stunner:

  • A PPP survey shows Barack Obama edging out Clinton 45% to 43%. Three weeks ago, PPP showed Clinton up by 26%. And he still has room to grow among black voters (75%).
  • Meanwhile, a Quinnipiac survey shows Clinton maintaining a 9% lead, 50% to 41%. She ties Obama among men and leads comfortably among women. But the Quinnipiac survey was conducted from the 24th to the 31st, and thus would not have recorded the trends of the past few days as well.

The PPP survey is clearly an outlier. The closest Obama has ever come in the Keystone state is 5% (Rasmussen’s survey released yesterday). But the poll is nevertheless very significant. For one, it does confirm that Clinton’s numbers are quickly declining in Pennsylvania numbers over the past week.

Second, a poll like PPP’s will be seen by superdelegates and will not help Clinton’s effort to convince them to hold on from considering the race as having ended. The continuing drumbeat of tightening polls will only increase the pressures on the candidate to withdraw from the race, though if the Obama campaign is confident of its chances to finish Clinton off on April 22nd (a tight loss would probably also be sufficient), it could ease the pressure to not antagonize Hillary further.

One major factor in this development is that Obama is massively outspending Clinton on Pennsylvania TV — just as he did in Ohio and in Texas — and that is bound to move numbers. In fact, the situation has become very similar to that of Ohio in late February: The New York Senator needs to win at least by double-digits and she started with very strong numbers that have been eroding ever since.

Now remember that Clinton pulled off a remarkable comeback in the last few days of the Ohio campaign, pulling out a double digit win after all. Though she was leading by that much two weeks prior to Election Day, her strength was unexpected by March 4th and she greatly benefited from her win. Now the same dynamic could emerge in Pennsylvania: Obama is tightening the race early enough that expectations could have time to shift in the next 20 days.

If the next few polls confirm that Pennsylvania is competitive, Obama will be forced to pay attention to it and the Keystone state will become a contest to watch, something it has not been over the past two weeks as the Obama campaign has dismissed its importance and insisted on May 6th instead. This can only be a blessing for the Clinton campaign: A loss here would be instant death anyway, whether or not people are paying close attention, so Clinton might as well heighten the stakes to get as much dividends as possible from a large victory.

Needless to say that, despite this slightly comforting thought, the four PA polls that all show a tightening race over the past 2 days are not the kind of news Hillary wants right now, and they open the door to the race ending on April 22nd (something that had been looking rather unlikely as of last week).

Clinton can at least take comfort in a new SUSA poll from Indiana:

  • She leads 52% to 43%. As expected, her strongest area is Southern Indiana, where she leads Obama by 23%. The Appalachian range has been particularly disastrous for the Illinois Senator.

This is the first public poll from Indiana since a mid-February little-reported survey showed Obama leading. And it should set some expectations in a contest about which no one really knows what to think. In fact, Indiana is often described as the only upcoming primary which neither candidate is favored to win. If Clinton wins and performs very strongly in the South of the state, she could step up her argument about sections of the country remaining very uncomfortable with the Illinois Senator.

Meanwhile, Obama got two important endorsements today. The first is Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal, a superdelegate who praised Obama’s “skill to end this vicious cycle of business as usual.” Count one more convention vote for Barack. The second is Lee Hamilton, a former Representative from Indiana (think May 6th…) who is particularly high-profile on national security issues, since he was the leading Democrat on the 9-11 Commission and on the Iraq Study Group.

Dems try to figure out how to deal with six-week break

Published
by
Taniel
on March 10, 2008
in IN-Dem, NC-Dem, PA-Dem and PA-Pres
. 5 Comments

The pace of campaign news has dropped significantly over in the days since March 4th, as candidates have come to realize that there will be no prompt resolution to this contest. Consider that that the two longest stretches without an election — from NH to NV and from SC to Super Tuesday — were only 11 days, and there were the two FL and MI rogue primaries in those periods, not to mention that how disputed the GOP primary was.

Once Mississippi votes on Tuesday, however, it will be six long weeks before the next ballots are cast — in Pennsylvania, on April 22nd. The Keystone state is already being described as the new Iowa because of how much time the campaigns will have to organize the state, blanket it with advertisement, identify every voter and make sure they get to the polls. Such operations generally only happen in the beginning of January, not in late April.

One consequence of this in the fall will be that the Democratic candidate will be advantaged in Pennsylvania come November. For all the talk about John McCain having time to regroup and prepare for the general (the NYT has a new article detailing the McCain camp’s opportunity), Obama and Clinton will have detailed list of supporters and networks when they have to gear up for the fall in the Keystone state. They will be criss-crossing the state for six weeks without any Republican response, and they will likely be very well covered by the media. In fact, I would be surprised if the Pennsylvania media covers the general election with that intensity until some time in October.

Pennsylvania has 21 electoral votes, and it is one of the swingiest of states, a must-win state for any Democratic candidate and at the top of any Republican’s priority list — both Gore and Kerry barely won the state. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Democratic candidate emerges out of April 22nd with a clear lead in the state’s general election polls, unless, that is, the Democratic primary gets nasty (much more nasty than it has been up to now).

Another very interesting storyline to follow here is how well the two campaigns manage to set the spin of the upcoming states: Which states will come to have the most clout, and which will be portrayed as the most decisive? For example, Wisconsin’s February 19th primary had come to be portrayed as much more decisive and important than Virginia’s on the 12th, though the latter is a larger state. And it is Clinton’s rout in Wisconsin that set her campaign’s storyline of doom for the next two weeks. (By the way, speaking of clout, think about how much clout a medium-sized state like New Jersey or Arizona would have had had they moved to mid-March rather than Super Tuesday).

Hillary Clinton wants the Pennsylvania primary to be portrayed as the next great Super Tuesday. She has nothing to lose, in the sense that she is likely out anyway if she loses the state. But for now, she is generally considered to have a significant advantage. The latest ARG poll released yesterday has Clinton up 52% to 41% against Obama — including a truly massive lead among women. And I have already detailed her demographic advantage in the state (not to mention that it will be a closed primary). Clinton is thus hoping to gain as much momentum as possible from Pennsylvania. If she wins big there as she did in Ohio, she will continue to press her argument that she is winning the big, significant states and she will head into May (I can’t believe I’m writing this) with renewed strength.

Obama knows that he will hold on to his delegate lead unless something dramatically shifts — and unless he weakens considerably across the remaining states. He does not really need to win Pennsylvania; even holding it at an Ohio-type level would be fine, as long as he can keep his advantage in places like North Carolina and perhaps Indiana (on May’s Super Tuesday…). Therefore, Obama would like the campaign’s storyline over the next 6 weeks to be the relative unimportance of Pennsylvania compared to other states that might be coming up after. That way, a Clinton win in Pennsylvania would not be covered as the momentum-changing victory that March 4th was but (hopefully for Obama) almost dismissed as an expected result.

This strategy could work (if Clinton continues to lead in polls, the media will be less interested in the contest) but the problem is that the Obama campaign will contest the state very strongly — since it cannot afford losing the state by a large margin considering the number of delegates at play. And that will make it difficult for them to minimize the state’s importance. Furthermore, there is a risk for Obama: He wants this campaign to be over ASAP, and even if he can’t force Clinton out he wants to make it seem that she is out of the game, only clinging in to a race she cannot win (this would be particularly important in moving donors and superdeleagtes). But if he is talking about North Carolina and Indiana too much, it will emphasize that we are in for the long haul.

Overall, both campaigns are unsure of how to proceed, for the situation is new in so many ways: On the one hand, a candidate playing catch-up — and no one really knows how realistic her chances are — but facing no financial difficulty (anymore), whereas traditionally it is finances that get candidates out of the race. On the other, a front-runner who is unable to close this off, who realizes that even he can’t win without the help of superdelegates and who is unsure of where the danger could come form (Michigan and Florida, anyone?)

Six weeks might be a long time, but it might be necessary to sort some of this out.