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Category Archive for ‘IL-14’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'IL-14' Category


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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Illinois has voted

The cycle’s first primaries have come and gone - and so much for surprises, at least on the Democratic side. After weeks of brutal campaigning, Illinois voters chose their general election candidates. In the Senate race, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias held on to his position as the early front-runner. In the Governor’s race, it appears that incumbent Pat Quinn will be able to hold on since he leads by one percentage point with just 0.8% still to report, though the contest might still head to a recount.

Yet, it is the Republican side that makes for a study of contrasts as to whether GOP primaries might knock the wind out of the party’s wave prospects. In the Senate race, a moderate Republican who just last June was one of conservative groups’ ultimate persona non grata coasted to an easy victory while in heavily blue IL-10, a conservative businessman upset a moderate state legislator that would have been better positioned to defend the open seat.

Republicans nominate Kirk for Senate, Dold for House

On June 27th, Rep. Mark Kirk was one of just 8 House Republicans to support the cap-and-trade bill; these congressmen provided the winning margin, since the legislation passed by a narrow 219-212 margin. Conservatives immediately vowed to punish the culprits. Yet, Kirk coasted to the GOP’s Senate nomination last night. While the 58% he received is thoroughly unimpressive given the caliber of his opponents, the silence of conservative groups and figures who were all over NY-23 and are now going all-out in the Crist-Rubio contest was deafening. After all, Kirk’s main challenger (businessman Pat Hughes) was no less credible than Doug Hoffman and he did reach out to politicians like Senator Jim DeMint.

There are obviously very good reasons for conservatives to give Kirk a pass: His candidacy is the main reason this Senate race is considered competitive. Kirk was able to survive in tough cycles in his blue-leaning district, so his ability to appeal to centrist voters and even some Democrats has been proven. Illinois is no Florida and Hughes is no Rubio, so working to defeat the congressman was a much graver blow to Republican electability.

Such considerations hardly stopped conservatives in NY-23, where many activists were quoted as saying they did not mind Bill Owens’s victory as long as Dede Scozzafava was defeated. Yet, Kirk is the second Republican in a row to benefit from a party-over-ideology reflex (conservatives rallied around Scott Brown despite the likelihood that he will position himself as a moderate senator), which could help reassure the GOP that the rise of Tea Partiers will not lead their candidates to be systematically Scozzafavad.

And yet, Republican voters also complicated their party’s hope of defending IL-10, the blue-leaning district Kirk is vacating to run for Senate.

IL-10 voted for Kerry by 6% and for Obama by 23%. To prevail, the Republican nominee looks he would need to duplicate Kirk’s ability to appeal to voters who typically vote Democratic and the GOP thought it had found such a contender in state Rep. Beth Coulson, who has a moderate reputation. Yet, businessman Bob Dold went after Coulson from the right and last night won by a surprisingly decisive margin.

Given the district’s leanings, this leaves Republicans at a disadvantage. Whether or not a red wave submerges Democrats elsewhere, Dold does not look like a good fit for this suburban Chicago district. Yet, the NRCC might ultimately be saved by the result of the Democratic primary, in which voters also chose their weaker general election candidate - albeit this is far more debatable and minor a point than the one regarding Dold’s victory over Coulson.

Indeed, IL-10’s Democratic nominee will be the party’s failed candidate against Kirk in the 2006 and 2008 cycles: Dan Seals beat out state Rep. Hamos by a narrow 49% t0 48% margin. While countless of Republicans in far more marginal districts fell, Kirk pulled it off on both occasions while Seals massively underperformed relatively to Barack Obama last year, leading to obvious questions as to whether nominating him for a third consecutive time might not cause the party trouble; whatever Seals’s qualifications, the bottom-line is that voters twice rejected him and that these defeats left him with far high negatives than Dold starts with.

A Coulson-Seals match-up might have been a carbon copy of the Kirk-Seals races, with the disappearance of the GOP’s incumbency advantage compensated with the shift in the national environment. But against Dold, Seals starts as the slight favorite. Needless to say, Democrats need this seat as a cushion against the GOP’s probably big gains elsewhere.

Democrats choose Giannoulias

Chicago Inspector General Dave Hoffman started his relentless attacks Giannoulias back in the fall and he was helped last week by reports that federal regulations were clamping down on Broadway Bank, the bank owned by Giannoulias’s family at which he himself worked as a manager. Yet, it did not prove enough to bloody the state’s Treasurer: He prevailed 39% to 34%, a narrower margin than was expected last fall but enough to move him to the general election.

Cheryle Jackson received a decent 20%, but her defeat eliminates one of the only candidates who could have ensured that the Senate contains at least one African-American come 2011. The maintenance of just that minimal level of diversity in the Senate now rests on the shoulders of Rep. Kendrick Meek.

In recent weeks, the conventional wisdom has been that Giannoulias could be Democrats’ weaker general election contender given the ethical questions that surround him. I wasn’t convinced Democrats had much to lose by nominating him until these questions took on a new dimension last week, though I still think that the state Treasurer is (very) arguably better positioned than Hoffman to ensure the Democratic base and minority voters turn out.

In any case, I suspect that the general election result is far more likely to depend on the national environment than on the identity of the Democratic nominee: Since we already knew there will be no incumbent, Republicans will not be able to turn the spotlight solely on an unpopular opponent and will have to hope that independents and moderate Democrats are willing to turn their back to Barack Obama. Can the president carry Giannoulias across the finish line in his home-state?

GOP also chooses its challengers in IL-8, IL-11 and IL-14

All eyes were also on IL-14, where Ethan Hastert was looking to take on Rep. Bill Foster. Yet, the former Speaker’s son fell 4% short against state Senator Randall Hultgren. My debatable sense is that this is the better result for the GOP since Hastert’s family ties opened him to obvious Democratic attacks while Hultgren already has a base and electoral experience. Yet, it remains to be seen how much the NRCC prioritizes IL-14 (the district did vote for Obama) so Hastert’s ties to national Republicans could have been helpful to the GOP. Overall, IL-14 is probably Democrats’ most (only?) endangered Illinois seat.

In IL-11, freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson might have found herself in a tougher race if the state’s filing deadline was not so early but Republicans were left with an underwhelming list of candidates. Yet, the winner of yesterday’s 5-way primary is the one candidate who seemed to at least attract the NRCC’s attention: Air Force veteran Adam Kinzinger. His fundraising strength also suggests that Republicans are paying attention to the district; Halvorson enters the general election favored, but we’ll keep an eye on this race.

IL-08 is another district in which Republicans failed to recruit a candidate capable to take advantage of a red wave and the GOP nomination yielded a candidate who is even more of a question mark than was expected; in a recent overview of the race by The Daily Herald, Joe Walsh chose to highlight primarily his desire to reform “ill-conceived” Medicare and Social Security, which is hardly a winning issue. For him to defeat Rep. Melissa Bean would require a red wave so huge that it remains at this point hard to envision.

Since both gubernatorial primaries are too close to call, it would be futile to analyze the results before knowing for sure who the nominees will be. While Governor Pat Quinn seems likely to hold on to his lead over Treasurer Dan Hynes on the Democratic side, state Senator Bill Brady’s 500-vote lead (with 99% precincts reporting) in the GOP primary is very fragile since the remaining votes were cast in Cook County, where Brady is very weak.


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Dems get reassuring polls in two districts, calming primaries in two others

Polls find Democrats can be reassured in at least two districts

Democrats have a lot to worry about in countless House districts, but they can at least count on offsetting their losses by picking-up DE-AL. A new PPP poll confirms that the seat vacated by Republican Mike Castle is one of the cycle’s most certain - if not the most certain - takeovers: Presumptive Democratic nominee John Carney leads 47% to 24% against the one Republican who has announced so far, businessman Fred Cullis.

His advantage against former state Senator Charlie Copeland is more modest (44% to 32%), but it’s not like Carney’s lead is hinging on his name recognition advantage: A full 54% of respondents do not have an opinion of their former Lieutenant Governor, which suggests that he still has a lot of room to grow and take advantage of Delaware’s Democratic lean. Another favorable sign for Carney’s prospects is that he leads among independents - the very same respondents that give Castle a 29% lead in the poll’s senatorial half.

Another House poll from which Democrats should generally be satisfied recently came out of NY-01 - and it is an internal survey released by the campaign of Republican candidate Randy Altschuler. It shows Democratic Rep. Tom Bishop leading Altschuler 46% to 26%. While it’s a sign of vulnerability for an incumbent to be under 50%, that rule is less prevalent for surveys that have done such a minimal effort of pushing undecided voters. It will be worth keeping an eye on the district as we head into 2010 (after all, the district went for Bush in 2004 and only narrowly swung to Obama last year), but don’t forget that many incumbent Democrats are seeing voters rush to support their Republican challengers, no matter how little-known and low-profile those are. Add to that the fact that this is a GOP internal with a 6% MoE, and Bishop’s 20% lead is a good start.

One Blue Dog could get rid of primary challenge, another replaced by a less moderate Dem

One of the Blue Dog Coalition’s most conservative members is Rep. Allen Boyd, who represents a red-leaning district (FL-02) that encompasses Tallahassee; he acquired a high-profile when he was the only Democrat in Congress to support George W. Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security. As such, state Senator Al Lawson looked like he was in a position to gain traction when he announced early in 2009 that he would challenge Boyd in the Democratic primary. In a district with a significant African-American population, Lawson had a clear path to running to Boyd’s left and he recently. released an internal poll a few weeks ago finding him ahead by 4%.

Yet, he has failed to gain enough traction fundraising-wise - a huge handicap given that Boyd is a particularly well-financed incumbent; and national Democratic worries over keeping the seat if Boyd loses the primary have heightened since it’s become clear how tough 2010 will be for the party. Now, Lawson is signaling he might pull the plug on the House race to run for Chief Financial Officer instead, which would not only be a huge relief for Boyd but would also cut short one of the few ideologically charged House primaries on the Democratic side. Sure, Lawson has yet to finalize his decision, but candidates don’t tend to muse about dropping out of a race unless they are very seriously considering it.

Meanwhile, state Senator Roy Herron increasingly looks like the front-runner to win the Democratic nomination to replace retiring John Tanner. State Senator Lowe Finney recently announced he would not run, and while there are still other names floating the bottom-line is that the national party looks very satisfied with the way in which the past week unfolded. (We’ve got to wonder whether the DCCC or Tanner had not given Herron heads-up that this announcement was coming.)

Politico notes that Herron’s hold on the nomination is a good development for liberals, as he would be a step to the left relatively to Tanner, who is a leading Blue Dog. (Well, Politico spins this as bad news for Democrats, suggesting it might cause Herron difficulty winning but he has held a tough legislative seat for decades - and it doesn’t look like the DCCC has much to complain about here.) A former minister, Harron looks to be interested in channeling religion towards progressive economic policies and a larger governmental role in helping the lower-class - or so it sounds from the description of Herron’s 2008 book.

Might the GOP establishment coalesce against Ethan Hastert?

In 2008, Democrat Bill Foster benefited from facing a weak Republican nominee and he is hoping for the same luck in 2010. If the GOP nominates Ethan Hastert, Foster could benefit from his inexperience, his obvious connections to the House’s unpopular Republican leadership and to his work as an assistant for Scooter Libby - all problems for his electability that now look like they are being accepted by Republicans. Last week, businessman James Purcell announced he was dropping out of the race to ensure Hastert does not get hte GOP nomination - a move that could help the primary prospect of state Senator Randall Hultgren (and thus arguably hurt Foster).

“Ethan is a very nice young man, but the reality is that his family is a liability in the general election,” said Purcell. “Dennis Hastert is the very kind of Republican that voters resoundingly rejected in 2006. I don’t believe Ethan will be able to get past that, regardless of how far right he runs in the primary.” Sure, Purcell’s argument (that the Hasterts are too moderate) isn’t what I had in mind when I questioned Hastert’s electability, but ultimately it goes to show that Hastert epitomizes the establishment for many people. He could have trouble exciting the conservative base while also turning off independents who want to turn the page of the Bush years.


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Filing deadline passes in Illinois: Burris will not be on the 2010 ballot, Biggert will

Illinois is the only state whose filing deadline is the year before Election Day: As of last week, no new candidate can jump in any of the state’s contests, which enables us to determine what will be next year’s battle fields in a way we cannot elsewhere.

The biggest news comes from what is the state’s marquee contest: The Senate race. While Roland Burris had long already announced he would not seek a full term, he had left the door open to changing his mind; he recently declared he was considering jumping in after all. But he did not make his move, and the deadline is now past. Burris will not be on the ballot in 2010.

Rep. Judy Biggert will, however. At the start of the cycle, Democrats were hoping that the congresswoman would call it quit rather than seek another term at 72; an open race in IL-13 would have been highly competitive: the district for Barack Obama by 9%. Yet, Biggert filed for re-election, so the GOP can breath easier. (Note that an open seat race might be tougher for the NRCC to defend in 2012, with Obama at the of the ticket.) Democrats are likely to nominate Scott Harper, their 2008 nominee. Harper received a respectable 42% of the vote last year, but given how favorable the environment was for him, it’s tough to see Biggert fall in 2010 if she survived 2008.

Those are the two most important tidbits I can see perusing through the Illinois Board of Election’s databases, but we can now have a clear idea of the landscape in a number of key races. Here’s an overview.

Senate

Alexi Giannoulias, Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman headline the Democratic field in a primary that has long already become heated; Greenville city councilman Willie Boyd, businessman Corey Dabney, attorney Jacob Meister, Robert Marshal are also running, for a total of 7 candidates. Jones LeAlan will be the Green Party nominee.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mark Kirk is the heavy favorite to win the nomination but conservatives have 3 months to topple him: For all the talk about Florida, Illinois features the first test of whether moderates can win GOP primaries this year. Yet, here the hard right has no champion as prominent as Marco Rubio. Businessman Pat Hughes has positioned himself as the leading alternative to Kirk, but he’ll have to deal with the presence of six other candidates on the ballot: former alderman John Arrington, former judge Don Lowery, Thomas Kuna, Andy Martin, school board member Kathleen Thomas and former financial director Bob Zadek.

Governor

The Democratic primary should be a two-way race between Governor Pat Quinn and Treasurer Daniel Hynes; this could help Hynes by not splitting the anti-incumbent vote, or it could Quinn since it’s hard to see primary voters dissatisfied enough with their governor that his challenger could reach 50% of the vote. However, community activist William Walls and attorney Ed Scanlan will also seek the nomination.

The Republican side is just as crowded as we had come to expect. The biggest news is former Attorney General Jim Ryan’s decision to run. He does seem more prominent than his party rivals, but he was last seen in state politics when he lost the 2002 gubernatorial race to Blagojevich so we’ll have to see whether he do better now that he’s been out of the public spotlight for 7 years. In the primary, he’ll face a number of credible candidates: former party chair Andy McKenna, state Senator Bill Brady, Adam Andrzejewski, state Senator Kirk Dillard, consultant Dan Proft and DuPage Co. Board chair Robert Schillerstrom. The winner is unlikely to receive more than a small plurality.

Rich Whitney will be the Green Party’s nominee. He had already ran in 2006, receiving 10% of the vote - a rare show of force by a third-party contender, all the more admirable given that Chris Daggett’s failure to break 6% shows just how difficult it is to receive substantial support.

IL-10: The only open House seat

The state’s marquee House contest is the open race in IL-10. On the Democratic side, not much surprise: state Rep. Julie Hamos and 2006-2008 nominee Dan Seals will headline the field, though they’ll also be facing Elliot Richardson and Milton Sumption. On the Republican side, the GOP’s strongest recruit is state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson, who has a moderate enough reputation that as to have some hope of winning a district Obama won with 61% of the vote.

Here conservatives face the same dilemma as in the Senate primary, where there are many candidates looking to take on Mark Kirk. Here, Coulson will face 6 Republicans: William Cadigan, businessman Robert Dold, businessman Dick Green, Paul Hamann, financial consultant Patricia Bird and veteran Arie Frediman. Dold, who has worked in Congress and has roots in local activism, looks to be the most apt to derail Coulson’s bid but the crowded GOP field will make it easier for her to clinch the nomination.

Other Houses races

IL-06 is bound to be a disappointment for Democrats. Conservative Rep. Peter Roskam was one of the few Republicans to win a highly competitive race in 2006, and he survived by a large margin last year against a candidate the DCCC was once touting. This year, Democrats did not find a challenger to Roskam until the final days of the filing period, when Ben Lowe jumped in the race, announcing he’ll focus on foreign policy. Even though Obama won this district by 13%, Roskam is heavily favored to win re-election next year.

In IL-08, Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean should also expect a far calmer cycle than she faced in 2006 and 2008. After she won a red-tilting seat in 2004, Republicans had put a clear target on its back, but the NRCC has now new junior lawmakers to take aim at. Who knows what can happen if the environment becomes highly toxic for Democrats, but none of Bean’s six challengers look like they’ll be able to endanger the incumbent.

If freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson faces any difficulty winning re-election in IL-11, it will be because she has not had time to entrench herself or because the environment is tough for her party, not because the GOP put much time ensuring she has a strong challenger. 5 Republicanshave filed for the race; at least one - Air Force veteran Adam Kinzinger - met with NRCC officials, suggesting he might attract the national party’s attention if he first survives an unpredictable primary.

In IL-14, Ethan Hastert, an attorney best known for being the son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert, will have competition for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Foster: state Senator Randall Hultgren, maintenance manager Jeff Danklefsen, Mark Vargas and James Purcell all filed for the GOP nomination. Bizarrely, the only person who filed to run as a Green candidate (Dan Kairis) is a member of the Illinois Minutemen who previously ran as a Reform Party candidate; could the Green nominee attract votes from the right?

In IL-16, finally, Republican Rep. Dan Manzullo will face a rare credible challenge from Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp, a race I previewed last month.


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NRCC puts another veteran Dem in its crosshairs, loses wealthy recruit in NV-03

Former Republican Rep. Charlie Bass’s decision making process - should he run for New Hampshire’s Senate seat? should he seek to recapture his old House seat, which is now open? -  has been closely monitored for months. Yesterday, it looked like Bass had finally reached a decision, as he formed an exploratory committee in NH-2 - exciting news for the NRCC but also a relief for the NRSC, since the GOP’s Senate committee has long already chosen Kelly Ayotte as its favored candidate.

Yet, within hours Bass stated that the committee should not be taken as a decision: He simply needed a place to put the contributions he had been receiving. (The third quarter ended yesterday, so candidates are now thinking about disclosure duties.) His choice to create a House committee obviously suggests that’s the direction he is leaning in, but we’ll have to wait a few more weeks before drawing any final conclusions. Thankfully, other politicians are being less indecisive.

WV-01: Yet another typically safe Democrat draws credible opponent

Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan might represent a heavily Republican district - John McCain received 57% of the vote last fall - but he hasn’t faced a tight race in decades, so much so that the 64% he received in 2006 was his lowest result in 22 years. But that is not discouraging the GOP: ever since state Senator Clark Barnes announced he’d jump in the race last week, the NRCC has signaled its determination to target Mollohan.

The situation is here very similar to that other entrenched Democratic lawmakers who are suddenly being targeted (Snyder, Skelton): Since they have not faced competitive races in decades, there is no evidence that any of them are vulnerable. That is not to say they will all easily prevail, simply that we will not know until well into 2010 who among them has a weaker hold on their constituents than is commonly thought. If the GOP recruits top-tier challengers against enough veteran Democrats, I expect some of them will be in trouble; but that will be determined by how much they’ve kept contact with their constituents and whether they remember how to run a competitive campaign rather than whether or not their district is conservative.

Add to that West Virginia’s continued attachment to the Democratic brand at the local and congressional level and it’s way too early to say that Mollohan is in trouble. For now, WV-01 joins districts like AR-01 and MO-07 on the list of “potentially competitive” races.

NV-03: NRCC loses touted contender

Having made Dina Titus a major 2010 target, the NRCC was excited about the candidacy of bank executive John Guedry. Yet, they are now back to the drawing board since Guedry announced he was dropping out of the race for personal reasons. The main reason this is bad news for the GOP is that Guedry would have probably invested a substantial amount of money in the race, allowing the NRCC not to worry too much about it. That’s exactly the type of contender the party needs in seats that are not obviously ripe for the taking (Obama won the district by double digit).

On the other hand, Guedry’s departure might be the opportunity for the GOP to recruit a stronger candidate: Private sector experience does not a top-tier candidate make, and it is very plausible that Guedry would have fallen flat anyway. Via SSP, another Republican is reportedly already signaling his interest since Guedry’s exit: former state Senator Joe Heck.

Of course, Guedry’s dropping out can be described as nothing but bad news for the NRCC until we get some sort of confirmation that Heck is actually seriously considering changing races. But that shouldn’t prevent us from also saying that, if he does jump in, Heck would be a step-up from Guedry: He is currently running for Governor and until this spring he was considered a possible challenger to Harry Reid. Needless to say, a politician who is considered strong at the statewide level will be highly credible if he downgrades his ambition at the House level. Republicans are already enjoying the benefits of this in PA (Meehan) and AR (Griffin).

IL-14: Hastert (Jr.) will face competition in GOP primary

In former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s old district, the field of Republicans looking to take on Rep. Bill Foster keeps growing. State Senator Randy Hultgren just formed a campaign committee, but he’ll first have to beat attorney Ethan Hastert, whose last name gives him instant name recognition in the district; there should be at least 3 other contenders in the primary.

Given my continued skepticism at Hastert’s chances - beyond his young age, his obvious connections to the GOP’s House leadership and his work as an assistant for Scooter Libby would make it easy for Democrats to portray him as a continuity of the Bush years - I can only see Hultgren’s entry as good news for the GOP as they can hope to field a stronger challenger to Foster. Furthermore, Illinois is one state parties have no reason to worry about divisive primaries since the nominees will be chosen very early (in February), leaving them ample time to prepare the general election.

On the other hand, I am not sure how much of Hultgren’s legislative district coincides with IL-14: His predecessor in the state Senate was Peter Roskam, who is now representing the state’s 6th district. It also remains to be seen whether the NRCC is at all justified in eying IL-14: Obama triumphed by 11% in the district, so Foster does not represent as hostile territory as other Democrats.


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House tidbits, from Ethan Hastert to Mark Kirk

Will the son follow his father’s footsteps?

Last spring, former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s resignation allowed Democrats to pick-up IL-14 in a special election: Democrat Bill Foster edged out Republican nominee Jim Oberweis by 6%, dealing a humiliating blow to the Republican leadership in what was correctly interpreted as a harbinger of things to come. In November, Foster easily won a full two-year term in November by beating Oberweis by 15%.

At the time of the special election, the GOP’s defense was that Oberweis was a flawed candidate whose unfavorability rating was too high due to his past losses in bruising statewide primaries. In 2010, they will thus be eager to prove that they can do better than they did in 2008 with a stronger Republican candidate.

Enter Ethan Hastert, the 31-year old son of the former Speaker. Currently working as an attorney, Hastert has acknowledged talking to local Republican leaders about the possibility of a run - adding that he has already received the blessing of his father!

Hastert’s candidacy would be sure to make IL-14 a high-profile contest that would delight the press; the Republican would probably raise significant sums of money thanks to the connections he has acquired during his years working in the Bush administration and during his years practicing law, as well as thanks to his father’s political network. Yet, there are two significant obstacles to Hastert’s election.

The first is his own profile. Hastert worked as an assistant to Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney’s longtime Chief of Staff who was convicted in the Valerie Plame case; and his last name ties him to a Republican leadership that voters rejected in 2006 and in 2008 across the country - including in IL-14. In 2010, the DCCC might not be able to use Bush as a boogeyman the way they did last year; but for Republicans to nominate Hastert would be practically begging Democrats to do so.

Second, the politics of IL-14 changed dramatically last fall. When Foster won the special election, we thought of the district as a conservative-leaning seat; after all, it had given George W. Bush a 9% and 11% victory in 2000 and 2004, respectively. But Barack Obama crushed John McCain 55% to 44% in 2008, a dramatic swing that gives Foster the comfort of representing a blue district. Sure, the eye-popping magnitude of the district’s transformation is due to the fact that Obama comes from Illinois - but that also means that the President’s popularity could protect Illinois Democrats next year.

IL-14 is a race to follow, but it is well too early to rank it anywhere near the top-tier of 2010 races.

A Republican-turned-Democrat running in FL-05

We haven’t heard much about FL-05 over the past few cycles, and four-term Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite easily coasted to re-election. Yet, this Central Florida district is in the range of other seats picked-up by Democrats in 2006 and in 2008: Bush won by only 8% in 2000, 16% in 2004 and McCain prevailed 56% to 43% last year. The district is Republican enough that Brown-Waite will always be favored to win re-election, but not enough to justify Democrats never attempting to seriously contest the seat.

Now, a challenger has emerged: Jim Piccilo, a veteran. The catch: He is a lifelong Republican who just recently switched parties. His decision to back Obama attracted some attention last fall, and he was asked to introduce Joe Biden on the stump. He explained to CQ that the turning point came when he heard Rudy Giuliani’s speech at the RNC convention. “When you are openly mocking someone who spent part of their life helping people who were low-income, who had health problems because of asbestos and mold in their homes, that’s not something to be mocked,” he said.

In short: Piccilo is unlikely to pose much threat to Brown-Waite (though stranger things have happened) but his entry highlights the fact that there are many contestable districts that have escaped our attention over the past few years.

Mark Kirk will soon make up his mind

Chicago’s political world is waiting for Mark Kirk to decide his 2010 plans: The Republican representative, who survived tough re-election races in 2006 and 2008 in a Democratic district (Obama received 61% of the vote), is now mulling runs for Governor or for Senate. He is considered to be the GOP’s best (and arguably only) chance to win either statewide contest. Yet, for him to leave the House would be a disaster for the GOP: Democrats would be favored to pick-up an open seat.

All in all, then, a lot of people are waiting for his decision. Democratic and Republican state lawmakers want to know his plans to figure out whether they should run in IL-10; prominent GOPers who are interested in the Senate or Governor races (for instance Rep. Peter Roskam) will probably defer to Kirk. Thankfully, it looks like we will not have to wait for long: Kirk just promised an announcement by the end of the month.

Whatever he decides, Kirk should be ready to answer for recent comments in which he suggested that Governor Pat Quinn should be shot for his tax policies. “I think that the decision to raise taxes by 50 percent in Illinois is political suicide,” he said. “I htink the people of Illinois are ready to shoot anyone who is going to raise taxes by that degree.”


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DCCC reserves time in 20 new districts, drawing an increasingly clear House map

Two weeks ago, I marveled at the DCCC’s announcement that it was reserving more than $30 million of air time in more than 30 House races. Yesterday, I described the DSCC’s investments in the Maine Senate race and noted the Democrats’ huge fundraising advantage. Within hours came the news that the DCCC had reserved an additional $18 million in 20 new districts, for a total of $53 million of air time reserved in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP.

Remember, this is not actually a buy on the DCCC’s buy - only a reservation - and the committee can very well renounce airing any ads, but the depth of this list is a testament to the depth of the House playing field. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved is within the committee’s $58 million of cash on hand at the end of June. In other words, if they give up spending plans in some of these districts (as they probably will in NY-13, for instance, since Democrats seem much safer in that GOP-held district than many of the party’s incumbents), it will not be because of financial constraints but because the race no longer seems competitive.

What is interesting about this round of buys (the full list is available here) is that it contains both districts that remain long shots for Democrats and where the DCCC is interested in expanding the map, and districts that are relatively safe for the Democratic candidate:

  • In the first category are $1.4 million in FL-18, FL-21 and FL-25, all part of the same Miami market. The three districts are held by well-established Republican incumbents, but Democrats are mounting a strong offensive, particularly in the 21st and 25th districts.
  • Also in the first category are a combined $1 million in AL-02 and ID-01, two extremely conservative districts that Democrats are hoping to wrestle away. The former is an open seat, the latter is competitive because of the incumbent’s controversial nature. Both districts have relatively cheap media markets, meaning that the ads will be seen often for the amount of money that is being spent. And while CA-04 are LA-04 less dramatically conservative, they are still clearly Republican districts and they would not be competitive in a neutral year.
  • Next, the DCCC is eyeing a number of districts that are considered to be leaning Democratic, including Dem-held seats in AZ-08 and more than $1 million in IL-14, and even some GOP-held open seats like IL-11 (a reservation of $1.6 million) and NY-25. It’s a safe bet that some if not all of these reservations will be canceled in the coming months as there is little chance that the GOP will force a seat like IL-14 (or even NY-13 and VA-11, which were in the previous target list) to be competitive.
  • Finally, there are the obvious targets, those that everyone expects to be very competitive and that were just overlooked in the previous DCCC reservations. Those include the GOP held MO-06, NJ-03, NY-26, NY-29, IL-10 and WA-08 and, AL-05, MS-01 and CA-11, where Democratic seats are endangered (the DCCC has reserved a lot of time for a modest amount of money in Alabama’s seat).
  • The 3 upstate New York seats deserve a particular attention because of how much money the DCCC has reserved ($2.7M for all three in the same media market) and the amount of advertising that allows in this relatively less expensive market. If the DCCC no longer wants to spend that money on NY-25, which is among the top 2-3 likely pick-ups for Democrats, the party’s candidates in NY-26 and NY-29 will be very lucky. Another interesting reservation in NJ-03, an expensive district to run ads in and where the DCCC seems willing to spend $1.7 million (which buys a third as many ads with three times as much money than in, say, AL-02)!

Of course, the buys in some of these districts are relatively small and unlikely to cost Republicans the race by themselves. But most of these districts host races that the NRCC and its meager $8 million of cash on hand will be completely unable to defend. Republican incumbents in these red-leaning districts are completely on their own and they might find themselves swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, whatever the DCCC spends of these $53 million of reserved buys can be consider experimental expenses to test the grounds and see how vulnerable incumbents like Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18 are.

If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it will still have more than $30 million to spend on some of these races - and much more in the likely scenario that it cancels its reservation on some of the safer seats of the list (NY-13, IL-14).

Given how positive the environment is for Democrats and how much of a money advantage they have, it would be political malpractice for them to not expand the map as much as possible. But for them to signal their willingness - and financial capability - to contest in 34 GOP-held districts while defending 17 vulnerable seats is a remarkable feat. And you can be sure that there are seats beyond these 34 GOP-held districts that Republicans should worry about.

In related House news, SUSA’s latest survey from KY-03 gives the advantage to the incumbent Democrat:

  • Rep. Yarmuth leads former Rep. Anne Northup 53% to 43%. He led by 17% in the previous SUSA poll, so this is an improvement for Northup.

Northup is a strong contender who served in this district for a long time until her surprise defeat in 2006. She is the best challenger the GOP could hope for in this district, but she is unable to push Yarmuth under the 50% threshold. An internal poll her campaign released last month also had the incumbent above 50%, so the race remains competitive but the advantage belongs to the Democrat.


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House diary: Dems hoping to pick-up red districts

Boosted by their success in IL-14’s special election, Democrats are now looking in the direction of more districts that are traditionally Republican. And first on their list is Alaska’s at-large seat, where Rep. Don Young has been embroiled in a corruption investigation that is threatening the state’s entire Republican party. A December poll showed Young trailing his top-tier Democratic opponent Berkowitz.

Now, Young has attracted major Republican competition in the form of a second primary opponent. The state’s lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell (whose dad Young defeated in the 1980s) has announced he is running against the incumbent. Young could be saved by his adversaries dividing the anti-incumbent vote, but Parnell’s entrance guarantees that there will a tough primary. This is also a rare case in which Democrats would be better off running against the incumbent, so they want Young to survive the primary: The main reason they are competitive in this red state is the incumbent’s ethical troubles.

In IL-14, meanwhile, Democrats still have to hold the seat in November to keep it for 2 more years, and Republicans know an incumbent is never as vulnerable as in his first re-election fight. Unfortunately for the GOP, they are stuck with the same candidate they had in the special election (Oberweis) when one of the main reasons they lost it in the first place was Oberweis’s divisive image. Now Robert Novak is reporting that Republicans are trying to get their candidate to withdraw so they can attempt to conquer the seat back with a stronger candidate, but it is very unlikely that Oberweis will yield. After all, this is probably his last attempt to win an office after a series of failed elections.

Finally, Republicans will have to defend 4 special elections in May: Louisiana’s 1st and 6th districts, Mississippi’s 1st and 3rd districts. The runoffs of primaries will be held in the coming weeks, so we will have to wait to get the exact picture of the special elections. But we can already says that LA-01 and MS-03 are too conservative to be in any way competitive, and the Democrats are not fielding candidates in any state to contest the seats. MS-01 is also probably out of reach — though less dramatically so.

That leaves us with LA-06, whose incumbent (Rep. Baker) resigned from his elected office to make money as a lobbyist. The Republican candidate (probably state Rep. Jenkins) will start as the favorite, but Democrats believe they can create a surprise here depending on the outcome of their primary. It goes without saying that a Democratic pick-up in any of these four
districts would be a huge shock for the GOP, especially when coupled with the loss of IL-14, and it would create major turbulences in the NRCC.


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In already difficult year, loss of IL-14 rattles House GOP

Eight months from a general election that is looking increasingly difficult for the House GOP, Democrats scored a major coup last night by picking-up IL-14 — the seat of former speaker Dennis Hastert — in a special election. With all votes counted, Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis 53% to 47%, in a traditionally red district that George Bush won win 55% in 2004.

A few months ago, Democrats made a similar push in OH-05, a red district where they thought they had a chance, but the GOP candidate ended up winning convincingly. Yesterday, Democrats exacted revenge and their victory will reverberate in the coming weeks, as operatives from both parties try to figure out what it means for November’s election.

House control: The first consequence is obvious — but it has to be said: Democrats have increased their majority by one vote. That means that Republicans will have to pick up one more seat in November if they want to regain control of the House — a scenario that is looking increasingly unlikely with every passing week. However you spin it, it is difficult to find scenarios in which Republicans get close to picking up 17 seats — without even accounting for the gains that Democrats are sure to score in many GOP-held seats.

A harbinger of things to come?: The temptation is strong to read IL-14’s result as a sign that Democrats are headed for a strong year. If they are running so far ahead of the district’s political make-up, the thinking goes, we could witness another blue wave on November 4th. But this has to be qualified for a number of reasons. For one, special election pick-ups do not necessarily serve as a good predictor of the November elections. In 2004, Democrats picked up two very difficult seats (SD-AL and KY-04) but the party had a weak showing come the general election. Second, Oberweis was a weak candidate that has already lost a string of elections and that attracted criticism by editorials like the Chicago Tribune’s traditionally favorable to Republicans. Third, the low turnout of a special election might have helped Democrats, whereas Republicans will be more mobilized in red-leaning districts in November since there also is a Republican year. That said, yesterday’s special election foreshadows two huge problems the GOP will suffer from in the coming months: Their open seat headaches and their fundraising woes.

The GOP’s open seat problem: If nothing else, yesterday’s election confirmed that the Republicans are facing an open seat nightmare. As is characteristic in the cycle after a party loses the majority, many Republicans have announced that they are not running for re-election next year , and a very high number hails from swing districts. In a year where the Republicans were hoping to put most of the 31 freshmen Democrats that pick-ed up GOP seats in 2006 on the defensive, it is Democrats who are facing dozens of opportunities that pretty much just sprang up by themselves. And this is the problem with open seats: They not only appear as likely take-overs in areas that are trending blue (VA-11, IL-11, NM-1, NJ-07…) but they also provide an opportunity to seize seats that would never have been in play otherwise.

IL-14 is a perfect example of that: It hadn’t been remotely competitive in more than 20 years, but it opening up allowed Democrats to force Republican hands and test the GOP strength’s, and they came away with an extra seat. There are sure to implement the same strategy in many of the open seats that are also supposed to be reliably Republican, places like MO-09, KY-02, IL-18 and even NM-02.

Republican funding woes: The second major issue Republicans are facing is fundraising. The DCCC has a massive cash-on-hand advantage, and it will use its money to put marginally Republican seats in play and test GOP resistance. In IL-14 already (following a scenario that played out in OH-05), the NRCC was forced to spend more than $1 million defending what should have been a safe seat, which represents about 20% of its total cash-on-hand. Republicans will not have the money to do the same in the fall. If Democrats go all out in unexpected districts (like IL-14) across the country, Republicans will be able to defend a few of those but will have to leave many incumbents to their own fate. And considering that NRCC help could not save Oberweis yesterday consider how much more dramatic the results could be in districts where the DCCC can play without the NRCC’s response.

The future of IL-14: Foster was only elected to fill the remainder of Hastert’s term, and Oberweis and Foster will face each other once more in November. The seat will most certainly
stay competitive, and Republicans have hope of reclaiming the district — especially since the turnout will be higher, which should help the GOP in a presidential year. However, Foster starts off his first re-election campaign with a very significant edge. It is very rare for a candidate elected in a special election to lose a few months later: In 2004, Herseth in SD-AL and Chandler in KY-04 won rematches in November very comfortably; the same in 2006 in CA-50, for Republicans. Electors do not tend to change their mind that rapidly, and the Democrats will do everything to bolster Foster’s incumbency claim in the coming months, not to mention that the NRCC will not have the money in November to contest this district the way it did in the past few weeks.

The impact on the presidential race: Obama and McCain were both involved in this election. The former had cut an ad for the Democrat, while the latter campaigned with Oberweis. Foster’s election will allow Obama to make the case that he has significant coattails and that he can help Democrats strengthen their congressional majorities. Naturally, IL-14 was in Obama’s home-state, which forces us to qualify any such argument Obama might make. But there is a concrete benefit for Obama out of yesterday’s election: Foster now becomes a superdelegate, and will almost certainly vote for Barack Obama at the Denver convention.


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Special election in IL-14: Can Democrats take Hastert’s old seat?

Update, 9:50pm: The election has been called for Bill Foster. With 94% of precincts reporting, Foster is ahead 53% to 47%, which corresponds to a 5000-vote deficit. Democrats managed to pick-up the district of former speaker Dennis Hastert, and the fall picture got that much more worrisome for Republicans. More analysis will come soon.

Update, 9:20pm: With more than half of the precincts now reporting, Foster appears to be in good shape, leading with 52% of the vote! He is now narrowly ahead in Kane County — where by far the most voters reside, and where Bush got 56% in 2004 — and he is way ahead in DeKalb and Aurora (64% in the latter).

Original post: Polls closed at 8pm ET in IL-14, Dennis Hastert’s former House seat. Democrat Bill Foster and Republican Jim Oberweis have been campaigning hard in the district, and both congressional committees spent hundreds of thousands of dollars helping their candidate. The results tonight could serve as a harbinger of things to come in November. IL-14 is usually a reliably Republican district, which voted 55% for Bush, and a Democratic pick-up would signal that the party could add to its majority. It would also mean that the NRCC spent more than $1 million of its small cash-on-hand and failed to defend a seat it should have held with ease.

The first batch of results showed Oberweis starting with a lead, but the contest has become much closer since then. Right now with about 32% of precincts reporting, Foster is very narrowly ahead… by about 400 votes. DeKalb County — one of district’s more Democratic areas — is already reporting at 62%, but Aurora County, which should also favor Foster, has not reported yet. This could be a long night.


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Republicans lose a Senate candidate and a lot of House money

Update: A new poll of IL-14 conducted by SUSA shows Democratic candidate Foster leading the Republican, Oberweis, 52% to 45%. The previous poll of the race also showed Foster leading, by 4%, but that was an internal Democratic poll. SUSA’s numbers are therefore huge and explain why the NRCC is spending so much of its money trying to defend a seat that it really cannot afford to lose.

Original post: Republicans have had trouble finding Democratic-held Senate seats to contest this year. They are mounting a solid challenge in Louisiana, and they thought they had found a candidate strong enough to put New Jersey in play: wealthy self-funder and real estate developer Anne Estabrook. She had declared a run against Senator Frank Lautenberg, who many polls show is a vulnerable and not-so-popular Democrat, mostly due to his age (he is 84). New Jersey has long been a state where Republican hopes (and resources) go to die, but with Estabrook funding her own campaign the NRSC could have looked elsewhere.

But Estabrook has now retired from the race because of health problems: She announced today that she had suffered a minor stroke on Monday. Thankfully, she appears to be recovering and she is doing much better. But she is unwilling to continue a campaign in these conditions.

This leaves Republicans without a strong candidate, a month from the filing deadline (on March 7th). State assemblyman Joe Pennacchio is the favorite to win the nomination now, but he is unlikely to be competitive in the general election. While NJ’s Senate race was always leaning Democratic, this does allow the DSCC to not worry about this at all and only have to defend Louisiana, allowing it to spend all its millions going after Republican seats.

Meanwhile, the race in the special election in IL-14 is heating up, a few days after the first reports that the DCCC and RNCC were getting involved and spending hundreds of thousands of dollars. Now, both committees have upped their spending considerably and bought more air time, with the DCCC putting in a considerable $300,000 investment on Monday, and the NRCC following wiht $180,000 on Tuesday. This means that national Democrats have now spent around $1 million and that Republicans are around $1.2 million. This is a very significant dynamic given how massively House Democrats are outraising the House GOP: They want to expand the map and test GOP incumbents everywhere, and the NRCC — with stretched out resources — will not have the money in the fall to respond to every attack the way it is doing now. MyDD calculates that the Democratic spending on IL-14 represents 3% of the DCCC’s budget, whereas Republican spending represents nearly 30% of the NRCC’s spending! That’s a huge — and very worrisome — number for the GOP.

The election will take place this coming Saturday, and it promises to be a tight one between Democrat Foster and Republican Oberweis. Barack Obama has gotten involved in the race, filming an ad on behalf of Foster (you can watch it here) saying that people don’t have to wait until November to vote for change. Obama’s intervention means that the results will be interpreted as a test of how much coattails Obama would have in his home-state in November, as there are a number of tight Illinois races Democrats would like to pick up.


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IL-14 special election heats up, SD and NC Senate races do not

3 months after the special election in OH-05 unexpectedly saw a last-minute deluge of ads by the national committees, the special election in IL-14, former Speaker Hastert’s district, is heating up. The election is set for March 8th, and while this is a red-leaning district Democrats believe they can take it from the GOP. An internal poll for the Foster campaign released earlier this week has the Democrat leading 45% to 41% for the GOP candidate, Oberweis — and while an internal poll always has to be taken with a grain of salt it is the second internal that Foster is releasing without a response by Oberweis.

Now, in a sure sign that this race is indeed very competitive, the DCCC and NRCC have jumped in with advertisements of their own. The NRCC is spending $900,000 as of now, with the DCCC in with a bit more than $600,000. This is very significant, because the Republican committee is far behind Democrats in money. In fact, this sum represents a bit less than 1/6th of their total cash on hand at the end of January!

In December, Republicans ended up winning OH-05 on a comfortable score, but they had to spend millions to do so. And this illustrates the problem the GOP is facing in the coming months: There are many seats like OH-05 and IL-14 that could be competitive next year, especially since so many GOP congressmen are retiring. The DCCC has a lot of money to spend and will do so liberally, testing GOP strength left and right — just as they did in OH-05 and now in IL-14. They want to expand the map and stretch the GOP resources. The NRCC is responding right now — and it saved Latta in Ohio — but it will not be able to do so everywhere in the fall. Democrats are hoping that this forces Republicans to defend the reddest seats in priority, leaving some of their most vulnerable districts undefended — not to mention that the NRCC can hardly hope to spend any money trying to pick up Democratic-held seats if it has to defend places like IL-14.

Make sure to check my House ratings that I updated last Saturday. Since Saturday is often a low-criculation day, you might have missed it. IL-14 is rated as a toss-up.

  • Recruitment in SD-Sen and NC-Sen

The news for Democrats is not so good, however, in North Carolina. The filing deadline passed yesterday and they have to settle for the two candidates they have had for a few months now, state Senator Kay Hagan and investment banker Jim Neal. Most polls have shown that sen. Elizabeth Dole is a weak incumbent who could be beatable with the right candidate, but it is unlikely that either Hagan or Neal will be able to give her that strong of a challenge. The DSCC is hopeful that they will prove to be strong candidates, and it is certainly possible — after all, the DSCC has enough funds to weaken Dole and give an opening to their challenger — but recruitment here has to be disappointing for Democrats.

In South Dakota, it’s Republicans that are having recruitment problems. Senator Tim Johnson was for long considered to be a potential retirement, but there now is little doubt that he is running again and Republicans have not been able to find a strong challenger against him. Governor Rounds was rumored for a while but he is showing no indication of wanting to jump in. With the filing deadline fast approaching, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Kirby is rumored as a potential candidate, but it does not look like he would be a very strong one. For one, Kirby was in office only for 2 years until 1995 and he lost a variety of primaries since then. Not to mention that he is a more than controversial figure because of his involvement in transforming cadaver skin into cosmetic surgery products (as Kos’s Markos is writing a lot about).

Now, the DSCC is releasing a poll that shows Johnson defeating Kirby… 70% to 19%. The poll also shows Johnson with a 72% approval rating. Sure, this is an internal poll but this kind of number does point to how difficult it would be for Republicans to unseat Johnson even with the right candidate, and how unlikely it is for them to get it competitive unless they get a first-tier candidate in (i.e. Gov. Rounds).


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Wednesday polls: Obama polls well in general election match-ups, Dems have a shot at IL-14

  • General election

Rasmussen released three state general election polls today, with Barack Obama polling much better than Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and Colorado, while the two are at the same position in Missouri:

  • In Missouri, McCain leads Clinton by 1%, 43% to 42%. Against Obama, he is ahead by 2%, 42% to 40%.
  • The Colorado numbers show some major discrepancy: McCain leads Clinton by double-digits, 49% to 35%, while Obama is ahead 46% to 37%.
  • In New Hampshire, finally, Obama is ahead 49% to 36% against McCain, while Clinton only leads him 43% to 41%. This is entirely due to the male population, which favors Obama over Clinton by 18%, while the two run equally well among women.

Three things to point out from these numbers: (1) We are used to seeing Missouri numbers that are much more favorable to Dems, but that is because the numbers we usually looked at where the match-ups with Rudy Giuliani. SUSA’s last Missouri poll, for example, showed Clinton and Obama leading Giuliani but trailing McCain. This trend will likely hold in other purlpish-red states like Virginia and Kentucky.

(2) I wrote in my last detailed discussion of electability that Obama polls better than Hillary in the West (I particularly had in mind Washington, Oregon, and Colorado) and Clinton polls better in the South and very red states (I had in mind Kentucky and Virginia), with the electability question more unclear in the rest of the country. This poll confirms that, and Colorado especially shows a gigantic advantage for Obama.

(3) This is the point in the election season that the good coverage McCain and Obama are having will impact their general election poll numbers, just as Kerry rose against Bush in the weeks after his primary victory. The latest Rasmussen tracking, for example, shows Obama gaining two points against McCain after the week-end, with Clinton losing two points. This opposite trend can clearly be attributed to their divergent fates and the kind of coverage they are getting. But this obviously comes at the worst time for Clinton, and allows Obama to step up an electability argument two weeks from March 4th and at a time they are trying to both court superdelegates.

  • IL-14, special election

The special election in IL-14 to fill Dennis Hastert’s House seat is scheduled for March 8th. Both parties selected their nominees for the special election on February 5th, with Jim Oberweis representing the GOP and Bill Foster the Democrats. Oberweis had lost a few GOP primaries before, so this is already an improvement for him.

You might remember that the timing of this election provoked some controversy, as Democrats were hoping that Hastert would resign in time to let the governor schedule the general election on February 5th and not the primary, in the hope that the high Super Tuesday turnout in Obama’s home-state might help Democrats pick-up this usually reliably Republican seat and Hastert made sure to wait off on his resignation, reassuring the GOP about their prospects here.

But a new poll released today by the Foster campaign has this as a very tight race, with Oberweis up 45% to 43%. This is an internal poll so take it with a lot of caution, but it still underscores the tricky nature of any special election, low turnout affair where the most motivated party often wins (and this year that clearly seems to mean Democrats).

This is not the kind of seat Republicans want to be defending right now, as the NRCC is at a significant financial deficit. Democrats have been very effective at expanding the map, and while they fell short in OH-06 in December they forced the NRCC to spend a considerable amount of money. Will they make a similar play here? We will surely know in the coming weeks by keeping an eye on money spending in this race, and how much both parties are willing to spend.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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