Archive for the 'IL-06' Category

Filing deadline passes in Illinois: Burris will not be on the 2010 ballot, Biggert will

Published
by
Taniel
on November 9, 2009
in IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-11, IL-13, IL-14, IL-Gov and IL-Sen
. 0 Comments

Illinois is the only state whose filing deadline is the year before Election Day: As of last week, no new candidate can jump in any of the state’s contests, which enables us to determine what will be next year’s battle fields in a way we cannot elsewhere.

The biggest news comes from what is the state’s marquee contest: The Senate race. While Roland Burris had long already announced he would not seek a full term, he had left the door open to changing his mind; he recently declared he was considering jumping in after all. But he did not make his move, and the deadline is now past. Burris will not be on the ballot in 2010.

Rep. Judy Biggert will, however. At the start of the cycle, Democrats were hoping that the congresswoman would call it quit rather than seek another term at 72; an open race in IL-13 would have been highly competitive: the district for Barack Obama by 9%. Yet, Biggert filed for re-election, so the GOP can breath easier. (Note that an open seat race might be tougher for the NRCC to defend in 2012, with Obama at the of the ticket.) Democrats are likely to nominate Scott Harper, their 2008 nominee. Harper received a respectable 42% of the vote last year, but given how favorable the environment was for him, it’s tough to see Biggert fall in 2010 if she survived 2008.

Those are the two most important tidbits I can see perusing through the Illinois Board of Election’s databases, but we can now have a clear idea of the landscape in a number of key races. Here’s an overview.

Senate

Alexi Giannoulias, Cheryle Jackson and David Hoffman headline the Democratic field in a primary that has long already become heated; Greenville city councilman Willie Boyd, businessman Corey Dabney, attorney Jacob Meister, Robert Marshal are also running, for a total of 7 candidates. Jones LeAlan will be the Green Party nominee.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mark Kirk is the heavy favorite to win the nomination but conservatives have 3 months to topple him: For all the talk about Florida, Illinois features the first test of whether moderates can win GOP primaries this year. Yet, here the hard right has no champion as prominent as Marco Rubio. Businessman Pat Hughes has positioned himself as the leading alternative to Kirk, but he’ll have to deal with the presence of six other candidates on the ballot: former alderman John Arrington, former judge Don Lowery, Thomas Kuna, Andy Martin, school board member Kathleen Thomas and former financial director Bob Zadek.

Governor

The Democratic primary should be a two-way race between Governor Pat Quinn and Treasurer Daniel Hynes; this could help Hynes by not splitting the anti-incumbent vote, or it could Quinn since it’s hard to see primary voters dissatisfied enough with their governor that his challenger could reach 50% of the vote. However, community activist William Walls and attorney Ed Scanlan will also seek the nomination.

The Republican side is just as crowded as we had come to expect. The biggest news is former Attorney General Jim Ryan’s decision to run. He does seem more prominent than his party rivals, but he was last seen in state politics when he lost the 2002 gubernatorial race to Blagojevich so we’ll have to see whether he do better now that he’s been out of the public spotlight for 7 years. In the primary, he’ll face a number of credible candidates: former party chair Andy McKenna, state Senator Bill Brady, Adam Andrzejewski, state Senator Kirk Dillard, consultant Dan Proft and DuPage Co. Board chair Robert Schillerstrom. The winner is unlikely to receive more than a small plurality.

Rich Whitney will be the Green Party’s nominee. He had already ran in 2006, receiving 10% of the vote - a rare show of force by a third-party contender, all the more admirable given that Chris Daggett’s failure to break 6% shows just how difficult it is to receive substantial support.

IL-10: The only open House seat

The state’s marquee House contest is the open race in IL-10. On the Democratic side, not much surprise: state Rep. Julie Hamos and 2006-2008 nominee Dan Seals will headline the field, though they’ll also be facing Elliot Richardson and Milton Sumption. On the Republican side, the GOP’s strongest recruit is state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson, who has a moderate enough reputation that as to have some hope of winning a district Obama won with 61% of the vote.

Here conservatives face the same dilemma as in the Senate primary, where there are many candidates looking to take on Mark Kirk. Here, Coulson will face 6 Republicans: William Cadigan, businessman Robert Dold, businessman Dick Green, Paul Hamann, financial consultant Patricia Bird and veteran Arie Frediman. Dold, who has worked in Congress and has roots in local activism, looks to be the most apt to derail Coulson’s bid but the crowded GOP field will make it easier for her to clinch the nomination.

Other Houses races

IL-06 is bound to be a disappointment for Democrats. Conservative Rep. Peter Roskam was one of the few Republicans to win a highly competitive race in 2006, and he survived by a large margin last year against a candidate the DCCC was once touting. This year, Democrats did not find a challenger to Roskam until the final days of the filing period, when Ben Lowe jumped in the race, announcing he’ll focus on foreign policy. Even though Obama won this district by 13%, Roskam is heavily favored to win re-election next year.

In IL-08, Democratic Rep. Melissa Bean should also expect a far calmer cycle than she faced in 2006 and 2008. After she won a red-tilting seat in 2004, Republicans had put a clear target on its back, but the NRCC has now new junior lawmakers to take aim at. Who knows what can happen if the environment becomes highly toxic for Democrats, but none of Bean’s six challengers look like they’ll be able to endanger the incumbent.

If freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Halvorson faces any difficulty winning re-election in IL-11, it will be because she has not had time to entrench herself or because the environment is tough for her party, not because the GOP put much time ensuring she has a strong challenger. 5 Republicanshave filed for the race; at least one - Air Force veteran Adam Kinzinger - met with NRCC officials, suggesting he might attract the national party’s attention if he first survives an unpredictable primary.

In IL-14, Ethan Hastert, an attorney best known for being the son of former Speaker Dennis Hastert, will have competition for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Foster: state Senator Randall Hultgren, maintenance manager Jeff Danklefsen, Mark Vargas and James Purcell all filed for the GOP nomination. Bizarrely, the only person who filed to run as a Green candidate (Dan Kairis) is a member of the Illinois Minutemen who previously ran as a Reform Party candidate; could the Green nominee attract votes from the right?

In IL-16, finally, Republican Rep. Dan Manzullo will face a rare credible challenge from Freeport Mayor George Gaulrapp, a race I previewed last month.

House ratings: Will the DCCC succeed in putting the third-tier in play?

Published
by
Taniel
on August 17, 2008
in AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, House, IL-06, IL-08, IN-07, LA-06, LA-07, MN-06, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, OR-05, PA-03, PA-07, PA-11, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11 and WV-02
. 3 Comments

The GOP has long faced tough odds in the battle of the House. In an election year that promises to be just as Democratic-leaning than 2006, many vulnerable Republican incumbents chose to retire rather than wage a tough battle. Few high-profile Republicans agreed to jump in the races thus left open or to challenge the Democratic freshmen incumbents that were supposedly so vulnerable. And the fundraising disparity between the DCCC and NRCC was obvious from the first days of financial reports of the 2008 cycle.

The road has not been getting any easier for Republicans. While no new incumbent retired and while GOP chances are improving in high-profile districts (NH-01, LA-06 and PA-11), Democrats are continuing to expand the map. 13 GOP-held seats have been moved to a more vulnerable column since the June ratings - compared to only 2 Dem-held districts. There is now a total of 56 GOP-held seats on this list versus 34 Dem-held seats.

It is unlikely that future cycles would be this skewed towards Democrats, and the DCCC is eager to strike at the core of the GOP base, for it might not have another shot at them for a very long time. In this context, the importance of the financial disparity between the DCCC and the NRCC cannot be overstated: Money counts for more in House races than in Senate and presidential contests, and the DCCC’s ability to flex its financial muscle is already evident. Over the past month, the Democratic committee reserved a total of $53 million of air time in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP. That’s a very large playing field to invest in.

This money is not an actual buy - only a reservation - and the committee can pull the plug on any of this spending. In fact, it is likely that the millions the DCCC has reserved in seats like NY-13 , IL-14 and NY-25 will not even be spent - as these already look like probable Democratic victories - and that money could be relocated to other races. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved in the fall is within the $58 million of cash on hand it had at the end of June. If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it could very well follow through on all the money it has already reserved (which would by itself be a huge money bomb) and still have as much as $40 million to spend!

Republicans, on the other hand, will face painful choices. In many conservative districts which lean Republican but in which the Democrats are injecting millions, the GOP candidates will be on their own, fighting the blue wave swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, if the NRCC spends some of its small war chest on districts like FL-18, LA-07 and NM-02, what money will they have left to help their candidates in more obviously competitive districts - NM-01, KS-02, NY-26 or MO-06?

If the situation becomes bad enough that the GOP has to build a firewall in its third-tier of races (places like FL-18 and ID-01), the first and second-tier might find itself entirely submerged and Democrats might post huge gains. If the country’s mood balances itself a little and if John McCain manages to limit the electorate’s anti-Republican behavior, the third-tier could find itself much safer than it is now - and the GOP might be able to spend its resources on the first and second-tier, significantly limiting its losses.

So will we have a repeat of 2006, with Republicans powerless to stop the blue tsunami though they will probably score some gains of their own this time? Or a district-by-district battle that will still be fought with a clear Democratic edge? That is the key question of the upcoming months, and the answer will have much to do with the dynamics of the presidential race.

The full race-by-race ratings are available here. Here is the quick run-down of the changes:

  • Less vulnerable Democratic seats: IL-08, IN-07, PA-07, OR-05
  • Less vulnerable Republican seats: CA-52, IL-06, MN-06
  • More vulnerable Democratic seats: LA-06, PA-11
  • More vulnerable Republican seats: AL-02, AL-03, FL-18, FL-25, LA-07, NV-02, NV-03, NY-29, PA-03, VA-05, VA-10, VA-11, WV-02

The full ratings are available here.

Outlook: Democrats pick-up 13-22 seats, for a Democratic majority ranging from 249-186 to 258-177.

History of House ratings:

  • June: The field continues to shift towards Democrats, particularly in New York
  • February: As many more races get competitive, Democrats keep clear edge
  • November: How many more Republican retirements?
  • October: Democrats feel better as GOP faces worrisome retirements
  • September: Democrats poised to keep majority

Wednesday polls: Obama ahead in 3 national polls, Sens. Smith and Lautenberg open big leads

Published
by
Taniel
on August 6, 2008
in FL-Pres, IL-06, LA-04, NJ-Sen, Nat-Poll, OH-15, OR-Sen, WA-Gov and WA-Pres
. 9 Comments

The presidential campaigns were engaged in such a furious ad war yesterday that my day was taken up monitoring the newest ads they were releasing - and it’s been 2 days since my last polling roundup. So here we go. Not many polls were released in the interval, and here are the five six presidential polls of the past two days, including 3 national polls finding the same margin for Obama (5-6%):

  • [Update: CBS News just released its national poll, finding Obama leading 45% to 39% - the same margin as last month. Voters name the economy as their top issue, 2:1 over Iraq. Obama's supporters are "three times more likely to be enthusiastic" than McCain's - something that could have a key impact on the election. CBS also talked to the undecided voters from its July polls and found that they were still undecided and that they were now less interested in the campaign.]
  • The AP-Ipsos national poll, released yesterday, finds Obama ahead 47% to 41%.
  • The Time national poll, released today, has Obama ahead 46% to 41% - the same margin as late June. The problem for McCain: Bush’s approval rating is at 29%, and McCain only gets 20% among those who disapprove of the president. The problem for Obama: Voters trust his opponent more on the issues. Obama has a 4% advantage on the economy; McCain has a 15% advantage on Iraq and 27% on terrorism. Another key difference: Obama’s supporters are much more enthusiastic, just like in the CBS poll.
  • In Florida (polling history), PPP finds a 5% swing towards McCain, who is now narrowly ahead 47% to 44%.
  • In New Jersey (polling history), Rasmussen finds Obama expanding his lead from 5% to a 48% to 40% margin (52% to 42% when leaners are included).

None of these polls find surprising results. At the national level, there have been two national polls (Gallup and Zogby) as well as two days of Rasmussen tracking to find McCain narrowly ahead, but most surveys still find a narrow Obama lead, somewhere in the low-to-mid single digits. The latest tracking polls (+1 Obama in Rasmussen, +2 Obama in Gallup) confirm that the race has been remarkably stable since the beginning of June.

One state in which numbers have moved, however, is Florida. This is the third straight poll to find a small trendline in favor of McCain (after Quinnipiac and SUSA) but McCain’s lead is within the margin of error and the only thing we should remember at this point of the campaign is that Florida is perhaps the only state in which the two candidates keep exchanging the lead with remarkable regularity. Since June 18th (when Obama was ahead in his first FL poll), Obama and McCain have each led in 6 state surveys. Compare that to other states where the margins are often within the MoE but where a candidate generally comes ahead, whether New Mexico and New Hampshire (all Obama leads, albeit narrow ones), Ohio (McCain has only been ahead in Rasmussen, twice), Missouri (Obama has only been ahead in Research 2000) and Colorado (McCain has only been ahead in Quinnipiac, once).

On to down-the-ballot surveys:

  • In Oregon’s Senate race, SUSA finds a big lead for Senator Gordon Smith - 49% to 37%. The big problem for Jeff Merkley is that 28% of Democrats are crossing-over to vote for the Republican incumbent.
  • In the Washington gubernatorial race, Elway shows Christine Gregoire with her first substantial lead: 52% to 36% - up 8%.
  • In the New Jersey Senate race, Rasmussen finds Lautenberg building on his lead, now ahead 51% to 33% against Frank Zimmer. Lautenberg’s favorability rating isn’t great (48% to 45%), but this is New Jersey and his opponent’s isn’t much better (37% to 41%).
  • In OH-15, the two candidates are locked in a toss-up in a SUSA poll. Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy gets 47% to 44% for Steve Stivers.
  • In IL-06, an internal poll for Rep. Roskam shows the GOP incumbent crushing his opponent, Jill Morgenthaler, 59% to 29%. In a district Bush carried by 6% in 2004, Obama is ahead 49% to 41%.
  • In LA-04, an internal poll for the campaign of Democrat Paul Carmouche - the DA of the county in which the district is located - finds him ahead by double-digit against all 3 of his potential competitors.

The last Oregon poll to be released was a mid-July Rasmussen survey that gave Merkley his first lead of the campaign. The SUSA poll is worrisome for Democrats, however, because its internal polls correspond to their greatest fear that Gordon Smith’s last few ads touting his bipartisan credentials and his ties with John Kerry and Barack Obama might be working at offsetting the year’s Democratic lean. Smith has much more cash-on-hand than his Democratic opponent, and the DSCC might have to up its investment to help Merkley get more than 68% of his party’s vote.

A few notes on the House races, starting with IL-06 which was one of the most expensive races in 2006 (Roskam won by 2%) but which looks like it will be much less competitive this time around. This is an internal poll, and Roskam’s margin might be overstated, but the incumbent’s large lead is not a surprise. LA-04, however, is a conservative district (Bush got 59% of the vote), but Democrats have been upbeat about their chances to pick up this district following Cazayoux’s win in more Republican LA-06 and MS-01. Carmouche’s advantage in early polls may be amplified by his good name recognition, and we will need to see independent surveys. At the very least it seems clear that the GOP ought to worry about this seat.

Finally, OH-15 was supposed to be one of the Democrats’ strongest pick-up opportunities when the Republican incumbent announced she was retiring last year. Kilroy came close in 2006 and she seemed to be favored in her second attempt. But the GOP is as happy with state Senator Stivers as with any of its candidates this cycle and they point out that Kilroy isn’t the strongest candidate. She was favored to win in 2006 and her loss was a surprise, and Republicans are getting hopeful that they can snatch victory once again. SUSA’s poll suggest the race is closer than we would have expected it to be a few months ago.

Down-ballot: DCCC moves to expand map and to block Jack Davis, the AMA turns against Senate Republicans

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2008
in IL-06, MS-Sen, NC-08, NC-10, NH-Sen, NY-26, OH-01, OH-02, PA-06, TX-Sen, Uncategorized and VA-02
. 0 Comments

With more than $40 million in the bank, the DCCC is not ruining itself by airing radio ads in 13 Republican-held districts to tie the GOP incumbents to big oil. But the list of districts Democrats have chosen to target is instructive of the depth of their offensive:

  • Expected seats: IL-06 (Rep. Roskam), NC-08 (Rep. Hayes), OH-01 (Rep. Chabot), OH-02 (Rep. Schmidt), VA-02 (Rep. Drake)
  • Third-tier at best: NJ-05 (Rep. Garrett), PA-03 (Rep. English), PA-06 (Rep. Gerlach), PA-15 (Rep. Dent), WV-02 (Rep. Capito)
  • Even less expected: CA-50 (Rep. Bilbray), NC-10 (Rep. McHenry), VA-05 (Rep. Goode)

This is not the list of 13 races you would expect Democrats to target. The inclusion of CA-50, for instance, is surprising as no one has been talking much about that race over the past few years. The purpose of this buy, then, is obvious: the DCCC wants to test the vulnerability of Republican incumbents, look at their reaction and prepare to poll their weakness in the coming weeks. The fact that it is a cheaper radio buy confirms that it does not commit Democrats to spend a lot of funds, but it reflects their determination to expand the map and put as many GOP incumbents as possible in danger. Note that however cheap this buy is, the NRCC does not have the luxury to spend money on non-essential expenses like these.

The ad uses a President Bush impersenator that pretends to be calling the office of these congressmen to thank them for their support for Big Oil. The full script is available here. Here is just the part read by the Bush impersenator, excerpted from the ad running against Patrick McHenry:

“Pattie…“W” here.

“Wanted to thank you for continuing to support the Big Oil Energy Agenda.

“‘Preciate you voting to keep giving billions in tax breaks to the big oil companies.

“Sure, gasoline is over four bucks a gallon and the oil companies are making record profits, but what’s good for Big Oil is good for America, right?

“I guess that’s why they call us the Grand OIL Party. Heh, heh, heh.

“Seriously, Patrick, I know I can always count on you.

“Gotta go. Bye now.

The fact that the ad is so directly targeted at incumbents with voting records explains why the most obvious seats that Democrats are contesting are not on this list. After all, the most vulnerable GOP-held districts are open seats. Another race in which Democrats are trying to tie the incumbent to the unpopular president is Mississippi’s Senate race — hardly a state in which you would expect Democrats to feel confident making the election national! Bush will fundraise for endangered Sen. Wicker, and Democrats are using the opportunity to tie Wicker and McCain to the GOP brand. The party’s statement read:

A high-dollar political fundraiser headlined by … Bush proves that electing Roger Wicker as U.S. senator and John McCain as president means nothing more than a third Bush term and a continuation of failed Bush policies.

Remember that in March Republicans attempted to nationalize the special election in MS-01 by tying Travis Childers to Barack Obama. Two months later, Democrats are comfortable giving the GOP a taste of their own medecine in one of the reddest states in the country.

Meanwhile, in NY-26, the DCCC is taking sides in the contested primary between Jon Powers and Jack Davis, the party’s 2006 candidate. As you might remember, Davis grabbed headlines last week when he won his Supreme Court case to ban the millionaire’s amendment in an effort to spend millions of his own money without being “discriminated against” and without any impediment to his attempts to suffocate Powers under massive amounts of his personal wealth. I am not one to advocate for the national parties to get too involved in primaries, but the DCCC thankfully decided to jump in on Powers’s behalf by adding him to their Red to Blue program before the primary. Powers will thus benefit from some of the DCCC’s funds and will be able to match Davis — almost as important as his beating the Republican.

Finally, more bad news for the GOP comes from news that the American Medical Association, a longtime Republican ally, is now turning against Republican Senators for voting against a bill to halt cuts in Medicare reimbursements. The bill failed by only one vote (after the House approved it 355-59), and a number of GOP Senators who voted against it are now being targeted by Democrats and by the AMA. Among those who are up for re-election, we find Sens. Cornyn (TX), Sununu (NH), Wicker (MS), Cochran, Enzi and Barrasso. The first three are vulnerable this fall, and the fact that the AMA has gone up with what it is calling a “significant” buy should worry these incumbent Senators. CQ notes that Mississippi’s Ronnie Musgrove has been heavily campaigning on this issue, and New Hampshire is also a small enough state that third-party ad buys can impact the election.

North Carolina and Nebraska Dems looking for a candidate, CA GOP looking to get rid of one

Published
by
Taniel
on October 26, 2007
in CA-04, IL-06, NC-Sen, NE-Sen and NM-01
. 0 Comments
  • Recruitment failures in North Carolina and Nebraska

Democrats are particularly unhappy with the state of the race in North Carolina. They believe Dole is very vulnerable, but they have been unable to find a strong candidate to oppose her after countless recruitment failures (Gov. Easley the most notable). Now, the only candidate in the race is investment banker Jim Neal. While a poll yesterday found him trailing Dole by only 15% and holding her under 50%, national Democrats are unlikely to pay much attention to a Dole-Neal match-up and want another candidate to jump in. At this point, any elected official would do the trick. And it looks like they might succeed, as state Senator Kay Hagan (who had passed on the race earlier) is reconsidering.

Meanwhile in Nebraska, Democrats are still recovering from Bob Kerrey’s refusal to join the open seat race — and trying to find another candidate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey would be their preferred choice, as he appears to be the only one that could make this race competitive (though he would definitely start as an underdog against former Governor Johanns). Today, the Omaha World-Herald reports that Fahey will decide within 30 days, but that he is not enthused at all by run. If Fahey declines, Dems would be left asking Steve Kleeb, a young democrat who ran a competitive House race in 2006. Kleeb would make the race interesting, but would hardly be a match for Johanns.

  • Doolittle investigation stepping up

A few days after the first Republican congressman called for Doolittle to retire, the plot thickens in CA-04. The chief administrator of the House has been issued a subpoena of e-mails relating to Doolittle, in a sure sign that the investigation into Doolittle’s ties to Abramoff is picking up steam. This would definitely give fodder to the Republican leadership that is trying to get Doolittle to retire. CA-04 is very Republican, so an open seat would favor the GOP. But Doolittle would surely lose his re-election race. Doolittle has said for now he will run again for sure — but how much longer can he hold on in the face of these revelations?

  • New Democrat in IL-06, one less in NM-01

Patricia Madrid, the Democratic nominee in NM-01 in 2006 who lost by 861 votes to Heather Wilson, will not run again in 2008. The former state Attorney General was rumored first for the open Senate seat, and then for the open House seat — but she is staying out of it this cycle. It is unclear how much this hurts Democratic chances, as the party still has a strong candidate (Martin Heinrich) — but Madrid is definitely the better-known and probably the stronger of the two. At least this means that the Democratic primary will be less divisive than at first thought.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is looking to compete in IL-06 against freshman Republican Peter Roskam. This was one of the most expansive races in 2006, as the DCCC wasted millions in supporting Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth who was running without the support of local activists. Roskam won with 51%. This time, the Democrats are fielding… another veteran, Jill Morgenthaler. This looks for now as a sure recipe for a replay of 2006. Morgenthaler was the Army’s press contact during the Abu Graib scandal… not the best way for the DCCC to endear itself to local liberal activists.