Archive for the 'IA-03' Category

Weeky update: 2010 starts with a bang

Published
by
Taniel
on January 11, 2010
in AR-Sen, IA-03, ND-AL, UT-03, UT-Gov, recruitment and retirement
. 10 Comments

Could the first week of 2010 have been any more charged with electorally momentous developments? Byron Dorgan, Chris Dodd, Bill Ritter and Henry Brown’s retirements, Jim Gerlach’s unretirement, John Cherry’s withdrawal and Richard Blumenthal’s candidacy conspired to dramatically alter the year’s landscape in a matter of days. Combined with the sudden competitiveness of MA special election and the buzz surrounding Harold Ford’s potential Senate run (his latest flip-flop is so grotesque it can only mean he’s seriously considering it: he matter-of-factly professed support for same-sex marriage just 3 years after voting for the FMA and placing his opposition to gay rights at the center of his Tennessee campaign), all of these developments left little time to cover lower-profile news.

Let’s start with Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon’s entry in Utah’s Governor race, as the Democrat gives his party as much of a chance as they could hope to score an upset in what is arguably the country’s most conservative state. Coroon won a second term in 2008 with 66% of the vote, so he is a well established presence in the state’s population center: Salt Lake County has more than one million inhabitants, so Corroon represents about 1/3rd of the state’s population! Sure, whoever wins the Republican nod (whether Governor Gary Herbert or a rival) will be favored, but keep an eye on Harold Dean’s first cousin.

Also in Utah, Rep. Jason Chaffetz had been mulling a primary challenge to Bob Bennett but opted to stick to the House instead; that doesn’t mean Bennett is safe, however. This week alone, the Club for Growth announced defeating Bennett would be one of its top 2010 priorities (they did not endorse a candidate yet) while Mike Lee, the son of a former U.S. Solicitor General under Reagan and of a former president of BYU, announced his candidacy.

Besides Chaffetz, two other congressmen Democrats were worried about clarified they’ll run for re-election: Rep. Earl Pomeroy and Rep. Leonard Boswell. While Boswell should face a competitive race nonetheless, open races in IA-03 and ND-AL would have been tricky holds for Democrats so this further limits the number of open seat opportunities the GOP can hope for. (DeFazio, Kanjorski, Skelton and Berry are probably those to keep an eye on.)

Another important story occurred in Arkansas: Just when you thought the GOP’s Senate field couldn’t possibly get more crowded entered a ninth candidate. Former state Senator Jim Holt, who lost the 2004 Senate race to Blanche Lincoln and the 2006 Lieutenant Governor race to Brian Halter, announced his candidacy. The NRSC would be better off with Baker or Coleman than with this staunch social conservative with a poor statewide record, but Holt’s name recognition and strong base in Northwest Arkansas gives a strong shot at winning the nomination. (Note, Arkansas primaries are decided by runoffs, so whoever wins would have to top 50%, but a 9-way first round should be unpredictable.)

Democrats are struggling to find contenders in Governor’s races in two Western states. In Nebraska, former Omaha Mayor Mike Boyle’s name had popped up at the end of 2008 as a likely candidate, but Boyle disappointed Democrats just as quickly as he gave them hope they could at least make a showing: He won’t run, and Governor Heineman remains unlikely to have to break a sweat. In Kansas, seemingly every week brings with it a setback to Democrats’ desperate search for anyone willing to run at the top of the ticket. The latest Democrat to rule out a race is Board of Regents Chair Jill Docking, and the party has now switched its focus to state Senator Marci Francisco.

Finally, two Democratic governors got primary challengers this week. The first is New York’s David Paterson, and I’m not talking about Andrew Cuomo, who is still coy about his plans: Suffolk County executive Steve Levy is the first out of the gate, though he has only formed an exploratory committee for now. In Maryland, the GOP is still waiting to see whether former Governor Bob Ehrlich will run but former state Delegate George W. Owings (a conservative Democrat) announced he would run against Governor O’Malley.

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire Rep. Henry Brown (R, SC-01)
Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT)
Senator Byron Dorgan (D-ND)
Rep. George Radanovich (R, CA-19)
Governor Bill Ritter (D-CO)
Will not retire Rep. Leonard Boswell (D, IA-01)
Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D, ND-AL)
Rep. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-06)
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R, UT-03)

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former state Sen. Jim Holt is running
CT-Sen, Dem Attorney General Richard Blumental announces run
incumbent  Chris Dodd retires
ND-Sen, Dem incumbent Byron Dorgan retires
former AG Heidi Heitkamp added to list
Rep. Earl Pomeroy won’t run
Ed Schultz added to list
NY-Sen, Dem former Rep. Harold Ford Jr. added to list
William Thompson ruled out run
NY-Sen, GOP former Rep. Susan Molinari added
UT-Sen, GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz ruled out run
Mike Lee announced run
WA-Sen, GOP former football player Clint Didier announces run

Third, updates to gubernatorial races:

CO-Gov, Dem Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper added
incumbent Bill Ritter retired
Speaker Andrew Romanoff added
Interior Secretary Ken Salazar ruled out run
CT-Gov, Dem former state Rep. Juan Figueroa added
Simsbury Selectwoman Mary Glassman announced run
CT-Gov, GOP Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton added to list
state Rep. Larry Cafero won’t run
Shelton Mayor Mark A. Lauretti added to list
KS-Gov, Dem Board of Regents Chair Jill Docking won’t run
state Sen. Marci Francisco added to list
MD-Gov, Dem state Delegate George W. Owings announced run
ME-Gov, Dem state Representative Dawn Hill won’t run
Dept of Conservation Commissioner Patrick K. McGowan added
MI-Gov, Dem Lieutenant Governor John Cherry drops out
state Senator Hansen Clarke added to list
state Speaker Dillon forms exploratory committee
MI-Gov, GOP Domino’s Pizza CEO Dave Brandon won’t run
NE-Gov, Dem former Omaha Mayor Mike Boyle won’t run
NY-Gov, Dem Suffolk Co. exec. Steve Levy formed exploratory
PA-Gov, GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach drops out
SD-Gov, GOP state Senator Gordon Howie announced run
UT-Gov, Dem Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon announced run

NRCC tries to showcase map expansion efforts

Published
by
Taniel
on November 20, 2009
in AR-02, IA-03, MD-01 and SC-05
. 1 Comment

In case you were wondering what is the one thing the NRCC would like to see congealed as conventional wisdom, its attempt to get minuscule ad buys in 3 districts held by veteran Democrats covered as a major strategic move should give you the answer: Republicans want to show they are serious about expanding the playing field so that the prospect of a red wave is treated seriously, which would in turn allow them to have an easier time recruiting and fundraising in marginal districts.

Who are the three Democrats the NRCC chose for this somewhat artificial demonstration? Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02), Rep. John Spratt (SC-05) and Rep. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). All three have served in the House for a long time (respectively 12, 16 and 26 years); all three represent districts that twice voted for George W. Bush and then for John McCain; none of them has faced a competitive challenge in recent cycles.

The spots attack these 3 Democrats for voting for health-care reform, so they could be a preview of what the NRCC has in store for its 2010 advertisement. (Here’s the one aimed at Snyder.) But the people the NRCC is aiming at are not swing voters but political observers like you and me - people who in seeing these ads might themselves: “Wow, the NRCC must be really serious about targeting just about any Democrat if they’re willing to spend money on Pomeroy despite the fact that he faces no top-tier opposition.” (Of course, Spratt and Snyder do face tougher challenges, the former from state Senator Mike Mulvaney and the latter from former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin.)

The bottom-line: Given that the NRCC’s fundraising troubles haven’t been resolved this cycle - far from it - they are in no position to buy actually air time for now. As such, there’s little use for them to waste money at this point on districts like Tom Perriello or Steve Driehaus’s (no one disputes that these Democrats are highly vulnerable next year, so there’s nothing to prove) whereas symbolic buys that will at least showcase their determination to expand the map could have more value.

One more veteran Democrat targeted, this time in Iowa

Republicans are sure optimistic enough that they continuing to try to throw all they’ve got at the wall and see what sticks. Their latest target in the ranks of entrenched Democratic incumbents is Rep. Leonard Boswell (IA-03), who the GOP has long considered weak; at 75, Boswell has spent decades in politics (though only 12 years in the House) and he could be vulnerable if the electorate is an anti-incumbent mood. This week, two prominent Republicans made it clear they will run in 2010: former Iowa State University wrestling coach Jim Gibbons and second-term state Senator Brad Zaun; both would make strong challengers.

That said, the GOP faces a number of major obstacles to making this race competitive. For one, IA-03 is not a conservative district (Barack Obama won a 10% victory, and the district was split roughly equally in 2000 and 2004); much of the GOP’s tune has been that the Democratic brand is growing so unpopular that incumbents sitting in red districts will be submerged, but Boswell does not enter in that group.

Second, and here again unlike other veteran Democrats who are being targeted, Boswell did face a competitive race recently: He beat state Senator Jeff Lamberti in what was one of 2006’s hottest races. While he was surely helped by the national environment, that doesn’t erase the fact that this forced him to remember how to campaign, stay in touch with the base and keep a ground infrastructure that should serve him next year. In short, the GOP cannot count on the element of surprise in this district. 

Finally, desmoinesdem points out that the stakes might not be particularly high in this race: In 2011, Iowa will lose a district and the independent redistricting commission is widely expected to remedy the situation by roughly combining this district and Republican Rep. Latham’s IA-04. It’s unlikely that Boswell would then choose to seek re-election, which means that Latham will be favored to win the new IA-03 in 2012 no matter who wins this year.

Believe it or not, but the GOP also targets freshmen

Meanwhile, one junior Democrat who is in serious danger next year is Rep. Frank Kratovil. In 2008, Kratovil won a tiny victory in a district McCain won by 18%, mostly because of dramatic divisions among Republicans. State Senator Andy Harris is now back for a rematch, and he can count not only on a more favorable environment but also on the fact that the deep wounds of last year’s primary will be forgotten by November 2010. To make sure people take his bid seriously rather than dismiss him as a poor candidate who might again ruin the GOP’s chances, released an internal poll today: It shows him leading Kratovil 52% to 39%. Sure, partisan surveys should always be taken with a big grain of salt, but that sure is a big margin.