Archive for the 'IA-01' Category

House members stay put, Iowa edition

Published
by
Taniel
on August 28, 2009
in IA-01, IA-05, IA-Gov and IA-Sen
. 0 Comments

Iowa’s Democratic Governor Chet Culver and Republican Senator Chuck Grassley could be vulnerable next year, but they have yet to draw top-tier opposition. And over the past few days, two congressmen who had been mentioned as potential candidates announced they would run for re-election rather than seek statewide office.

This double refusal is arguably worse news for Democrats: While Republicans have many politicians other than Rep. Steve King to field, Rep. Bruce Braley’s decision not to challenge Grassley could very well be the final nail in the DSCC’s hopes of contesting his Senate seat.

Senate: Braley leaves Grassley alone

Yet, that is no reason for Democrats to start lamenting Braley’s announcement because the sophomore representative was never deemed likely to run. The only reason we heard so much about him in recent weeks was a report the Des Moines Register published last month, hinting that a “well-known mystery candidate [is] about 75 percent ready to join the race.” Braley’s subsequent health care-related war of words with Grassley only increased the speculation, but it was hard to take all of this seriously.

Braley revealed the depth of his political ambition within weeks of being elected to the House, as he quickly started climbing the leadership ladder: He was appointed at-large whip and chairman of the DCCC’s “Red to Blue Program” and he became first freshman to chair a House subcommittee since the start of congressional record-keeping in 1959. Since then, Braley’s profile has only grown: He now sits on the House and Energy Committee (not all sophomores get such prestigious appointments) and he recently founded the Populist Caucus, teaming up with far more senior members like Peter DeFazio and Louise Slaughter.

Why would Braley endanger his so-promising House career when he can afford to wait? At only 51, Braley can afford to wait for Grassley or Tom Harkin to retire in 2014 or 2016. And it’s not like he has that much to fear while he sticks around in the House: His district voted for Al Gore and John Kerry by 7% and for Barack Obama by 17%. With the prospect of easy re-election races keeping him up all the way to an open Senate seat, why would Braley wage his political career on  difficult Senate run against a 5-term incumbent?

Indeed, a Braley challenge would not suddenly catapult the seat at the top of the Democrats’ pick-up list. Iowa might lean blue and Braley might be a strong contender, but any five-term senator makes a formidable opponent. The only Democrat who was sure of forcing Grassley into a toss-up race was former Governor Tom Vilsack, but Obama took care of that possibility by appointing him Secretary of Agriculture. With Vilsack and Braley’s departures, Democrats are left with second-to-third tier contenders.

Governor: King would rather oppose Obama than Culver

One of the most conservative House Republicans, King had been going back and forth when asked about his interest in the Governor’s race. After initially declaring his interest, he hinted that he was leaning against it; he later declared that he was taking the possibility more seriously out of anger at Governor Chet Culver’s refusal to take action against the state Supreme Court’s legalizing gay marriage. In the final act of King’s decision-making process, he announced this week that he would not run for Governor.

“If America takes this leftward lurch, it won’t matter what we do in Iowa if we don’t get it right in Washington,” he said, thus explaining his decision by the higher importance of fighting Obama’s agenda than of opposing Culver’s.

As a reminder, this is the same man who declared in March 2008: “I will tell you that, if he is elected president, then the radical Islamists, the al-Qaida, the radical Islamists and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11 because they will declare victory in this War on Terror… They will be dancing in the streets because of his middle name.” In July 2009, King was the only House member to vote against a resolution acknowledging the use of slave labor in the Capitol’s construction.

While any challenger can be competitive when all voters are thinking about is the incumbent’s record (like any Midwestern Governor, Culver’s numbers have been going down and he should be in trouble if the economy does not rebound noticeably), it’s hard to see how King’s firebrand conservatism would have been successful at the statewide level: IA-05 is the state’s reddest district, and it is 20% more Republican than the state at large (it gave Bush 60% of the vote in 2004, for instance). King is not used to winning over left-tilting and independent voters, and there’s no evidence he’d be able to do so as a gubernatorial candiate - nor that voters would respond well if he focused his campaign on social issues like gay marriage.

As such, King’s exit gives the GOP a chance to find a stronger challenger to Culver. State House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, Bob Vander Plaats and businessman Mike Whalen are all mentioned by the Republicans’ strongest potential contender is undoubtedly former Governor Terry Branstad, who now serves as president of the University of Des Moines. A recent poll conducted by a Republican 527 found Branstad running strong, though we’ll wait for him to make up his mind and for public polls to come up before assessing his strength.

In aftermath of cap-and-trade vote, NRCC targets 14 other Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on July 2, 2009
in AR-02, CO-04, FL-08, IA-01, IL-11, IN-09, MO-04, NM-02, OH-15, OH-16, OH-18, TN-06, VA-05 and VA-09
. 2 Comments

As the House took a high-profile and controversial vote last Friday, we knew what was coming: Attack ads! While many vulnerable Democrats voted against the Waxman-Markey, the NRCC wasted no time going after those who supported it: A new wave of ads and robo-calls targets 14 Democrats who voted for cap-and-trade despite representing red-leaning districts.

Only one Democrat earns the right to be targeted by a TV spot: Rep. Tom Perriello (VA-05), an obvious Democratic target whose re-election bid is rated a toss-up in my ratings. The ad starts with footage of Obama saying that his cap-and-trade proposal will result in skyrocketing energy prices and concludes by hitting Perriello for his party loyalty. “Tom Perriello’s voting with Obama and with Pelosi over and over. Call Perriello. Tell him he was wrong to vote for the Pelosi energy tax,” says the narrator:

The 13 other Democrats are being targeted with a radio ad. Here’s the version running against Rep. Vic Snyder (AR-02):

The NRCC has two obvious goals. First, drive down the popularity of these incumbents to endanger their 2010 re-election bid. At least eight of these Democrats are considered highly vulnerable; in 2008, they prevailed by winning the support of voters who also chose McCain and the GOP’s priority is to reconquer these ticket-splitter.

Second, scare these Democrats into switching their vote and opposing cap-and-trade if the legislation returns to the House in the form of a conference report. Last week, Waxman-Markey passed by a narrow 219 to 212 margin so all it would take is for 4 representatives to change their mind for the bill to be killed; pressuring those supportive Democrats who represent the most conservative districts is the surest way for the GOP to get there.

Of course, any backlash these Democrats might endure will only be heightened by the party’s reluctance to fully stand behind Waxman-Markey. The narrow margin by which the bill passed and the dozens of Democrats who voted “no” have done as much to make the bill look controversial as anything the NRCC could say. By contrast, legislation that passes on a 245-186 vote will be covered differently by the press and won’t be as likely to become electorally explosive.

Furthermore, it would be silly for these 14 Democrats think that they would suddenly put the cap-and-trade issue behind them if they oppose an eventual conference report: The NRCC would certainly not hold back from pointing out that they voted in favor of initial passage, and such congressmen would only be weighed down by the need to explain their change of heart. Yet, while a flip-flop might be unlikely, there is no doubt that this is what the GOP is aiming at.

How else to explain the presence on this list of Rick Boucher (VA-09), Bart Gordon (TN-06) and Ike Skelton (MO-04)? (The NRCC is running radio against all three.) While all represent districts that gave McCain more than 59% of the vote, they are veteran congressmen elected in 1982, 1984 and 1976, respectively. They are never described as vulnerable and they very rarely show up on such lists. To a lesser extent, the same goes for Baron Hill (IN-09): He is not expected to face a competitive race in 2010 but his conservative voting record makes him a potential vote-switcher.

(In February, the NRCC ran radio ads attacking Gordon and Skelton for supporting the stimulus but the ads were released before the House voted on the conference report; neither flip-flopped on that second vote.)

Another surprise appearance on this list is Bruce Braley (IA-01), a relatively liberal Democrat who represents the only clearly Democratic district of the list: IA-01 went for Gore and Kerry and gave Obama 58% of the vote, so I’m not sure what the NRCC is trying to do here. (He was also included among the targets of those February stimulus ads.)

Besides these five Democrats, the other targeted congressmen are all to some extent vulnerable: John Boccieri (OH-16), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Deborah Halvorson (IL-11), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Vic Snyder (AR-02), Zack Space (OH-18) and Harry Teague (NM-02). (I’ve talked enough about these races not to launch in a detailed analysis now, but you can check here for more race-specific information.)

There are some notable absences, like Frank Kratovil (MD-01) and Steve Driehaus (OH-01), but the NRCC is going after at least one other Democrat - Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - by launching robocalls on another topic altogether: NASA. Their attack is rather disingenuous since Kosmas voted against the appropriations bill that cut millions from NASA funding; the GOP circumvents that little problem and attacks her nonetheless for not prevent[ing] that cut.”

(For those more interested in the legislative battle behind Friday’s vote, Politico published an interesting story on Nancy Pelosi’s whip efforts.)

In other House news, the GOP landed a top contender in NY-29: Corning Mayor Tom Reed announced he would take on Rep. Eric Massa, who defeated a Republican incumbent last fall. While Corning is too small a city to make Reed that threatening a candidate (its population hovers around 10,000), his political experience and the NRCC’s enthusiasm for his candidacy make him a very credible challenger. As most of the GOP’s 2010 candidates are likely to do, Reed emphasized fiscal issues and his concern for “irresponsible deficit spending.” Note that the NRCC’s preferred candidate was Assemblyman Brian Kolb, but Kolb decided not to run when he became the state Assembly’s Minority Leader; other Republicans could still jump in, including a pair of state Senators.

The who’s who of vulnerable House Democrats

Published
by
Taniel
on February 13, 2009
in CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, IA-01, KS-03, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-25, NY-29, OH-15, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06 and TX-17
. 0 Comments

Ten days ago, the DCCC launched radio ads in 28 congressional districts held by the GOP. The spot attacked vulnerable Republican incumbents for voting against the stimulus bill, in a legislative effort to scare the lawmakers into supporting the bill’s final version and an electoral effort to soften up their support.

Now, it is the NRCC’s turn to go after 30 vulnerable Democratic incumbents for supporting the stimulus. The radio ads accuse the representatives of being fiscally irresponsible and supporting pork spending - Republican talking points that can be effective against these Democratic congressmen since most of them represent red-leaning districts (see list below).

The NRCC’s first order of business in this new cycle has to be rallying the Republican base against Democrats who represent them, particularly in areas in which conservatives dominate. While there is little money behind these ads, they are necessary to lay the groundwork for 2010 challenges.

Part of the NRCC’s objective, of course, is to scare some of these Democrats into adopting conservative voting habits over the next few months. 11 House Democrats voted against the stimulus bill, but there are enough Blue Dogs that the GOP can hope for more Democrats to cross over to their side on key votes. And they are more likely to vote with Republicans  if they are made to think it is dangerous for them not to do so .

Here is the version that is running in KS-03 against Rep. Dennis Moore (audio here):

Last year, Dennis Moore promised us he would promote fiscally responsible legislation in congress. His website bragged about how he worked with either party to, quote, get our country back on track so we don’t pass on massive debt to our children and grand-children. But now, just a year later, he voted for a wasteful, pork-barreled program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars. And he’s borrowing the money!

Dennis Moore’s spending plan is parked with pork. $75 million for smoking cessation, $50 million for the National Endowment of the Arts, $335 million to treat sexually transmitted diseases, and $600 million for government employees vehicles, including 32 entirely new government programs. Yup. You heard me. Call Dennis Moore at 202-225-3121. Tell him he made a mistake by supporting wasteful spending. Tell him to guard the taxpayers instead.

While the second part of that ad is used against all 30 Democrats, the first part is twitched a little on an individual basis. Here is the beginning of the spot that is running against Rep. Eric Massa in NY-29:

Last month, Eric Massa bragged about his fiscal discipline in Congress. ‘I’m a fiscal hawk; I don’t like deficit spending.’ Those were Eric Massa’s own words. He said them in a press conference. But now he’s voted for a wasteful pork barrel program that will cost taxpayers nearly a trillion dollars, putting us deeper in debt.

Here is a table listing the full list of targeted Democrats. I added the districts’ presidential vote in 2004 and 2008 so we get an idea of how vulnerable these representatives are. (The district-level results for 2008 are available on Swing State Project’s excellent database.)

District Status 2008 pres. 2004 pres.
McNerney (CA-11) sophomore 54% Obama 54% Bush
Salazar (CO-03) red-leaning district 50% McCain 55% Bush
Markey (CO-04) freshman 51% McCain 58% Bush
Grayson (FL-08) freshman 52% Obama 55% Bush
Kosmas (FL-24) freshman, red district 52% McCain 55% Bush
Barrow (GA-12) (very) narrow ‘06 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Braley (IA-01) sophomore 58% Obama 53% Kerry
Moore (KS-03) red-leaning district 51% Obama 55% Bush
Melancon (LA-03) red district 61% McCain 58% Bush
Schauer (MI-07) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 52% Obama 54% Bush
Walz (MN-01) sophomore 51% Obama 51% Bush
Skelton (MO-04) red district 61% McCain 64% Bush
Childers (MS-01) red district 62% McCain 62% Bush
Kissell (NC-08) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 54% Bush
Shea-Porter (NH-01) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 53% Obama 51% Bush
Teague (NM-02) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 50% McCain 58% Bush
Titus (NV-03) freshman, competitive ‘08 race 55% Obama 50% Bush
Hall (NY-19) sophomore 51% Obama 54% Bush
Maffei (NY-25) freshman 56% Obama 50% Kerry
Massa (NY-29) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 51% McCain 56% Bush
Driehaus (OH-01) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 55% Obama 51% Bush
Kilroy (OH-15) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 50% Bush
Space (OH-18) sophomore, red district 52% McCain 57% Bush
Schrader (OR-05) freshman 54% Obama 50% Bush
Dahlkemper (PA-03) freshman, narrow ‘08 victory 49% Obama 53% Bush
Carney (PA-10) sophomore, red district 54% McCain 60% Bush
Gordon (TN-06) red district 62% McCain 60% Bush
Edwards (TX-17) red district 67% McCain 70% Bush
Nye (VA-02) freshman 51% Obama 58% Bush
Kagen (WI-08) sophomore, narrow ‘08 victory 54% Obama 55% Bush

It is striking that 28 of these districts were won by George W. Bush in 2004, but only 11 were carried by John McCain in November: CO-03, CO-04, FL-24, LA-03, MO-04, MS-01, NH-01, NM-02, NY-29, OH-18, PA-10, TN-06, TX-17.

Given that most of the country swung blue in 2008, districts that stayed in the red column can be considered the GOP’s most solid base - and the NRCC is understandably frustrated at the large number of Democrats representing such districts. These districts are at the very top of their list, and their congressmen are among the most vulnerable incumbents of 2010. Particularly endangered are those on this list that won in 2006 and in 2008 because of their opponent’s unpopularity or ethics problems; that includes Markey (CO-04), Kosmas (FL-24), Space (OH-18), Carney (PA-10).

On the other hand, many of these red districts are still held by Democrats because they have deeply entrenched Democratic incumbents who are popular enough to hold the district no matter how conservative their constituents. Those include CO-03, MO-04 and TN-06, three red districts targeted by this wave of advertisement - and surprisingly so given how little we have heard about them over the past few cycles!

Equally interesting are the two districts won by John Kerry that the DCCC is targeting, a list to which we can almost add OH-15, which Bush barely won in 2004. But while I can understand why the NRCC is targeting Ohio’s Mary Jo Kilroy, who showed that she was not the strongest of candidates in 2006 and then again in 2006, I am more skeptical as to the inclusion of NY-25 and IA-01. The former is a blue-trending district in which Obama won a decisive victory and in a state where Republicans have been sinking. The latter is even more confusing: Both Kerry and Obama won IA-01 decisively, and Bruce Braley is not even a freshman!