Archive for the 'GA-12' Category

House Republicans recruit in GA-12, MD-01

Published
by
Taniel
on January 29, 2009
in GA-12 and MD-01
. 1 Comment

To reconquer a majority in the House, Republicans will have to put in play the red-leaning districts that have fallen in Democratic hands. That will require the GOP to conduct some excellent recruitment for the next few months: They cannot afford to let Democratic incumbents in districts like AL-02, ID-01, MD-01 or VA-02 get entrenched - not to mention all the seats Republicans lost in 2006.

Yesterday, we learned that state Senator Andy Harris is interested in a rematch against now- Rep. Frank Kratovil in MD-01. Harris himself revealed that he is set to meet with NRCC officials to discuss a possible 2010 run.

MD-01 was one of the most improbable sites for a Democratic pick-ups. It is a very conservative district in which John McCain crushed Barack Obama by 18%; in 2004, Bush had triumphed by 26%! Yet, Republican divisions allowed Democrats to score an upset.

The seat was in the hands of Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, a moderate Republican whose centrist positioning so annoyed conservatives that they funded Harris’s primary challenge last year; Harris knocked off Gilchrest in the February 13th primary, giving the DCCC hope it could contest the seat. Gilchrest’s decision to endorse the Democratic nominee boosted his chances, and Kratovil ended up beating Harris by less than 3,000 votes.

In other words, Harris’s decision to run in 2008 is the principal reason MD-01 is now in Democratic hands, and he is thus probably not the best candidate Republicans can run in 2010. For him to jump back in the race could reopen the wounds of the 2008 primary, allowing Democrats to portray Harris as too conservative for the district.

That said, there is no question that Kratovil will remain one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents because the moderate Republicans that supported him in 2008 might desert him in 2010. For one, the national environment is unlikely to be as toxic for the GOP as it was over the past two cycles, meaning that independent voters could stop behaving like partisan Democrats; that is probably all Republicans need in districts like MD-01.

Second, will moderate Republicans want to punish Harris in 2010 as much as they did in 2008? If the state Senator runs, Gilchrest could once again attempt to rally support against him; but he will certainly have less of a voice now that he is no longer a congressmen.

In brief: Harris is not the strongest challenger the GOP could file given what happened in 2008, but he would remain a credible challenger.

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GA-12 meanwhile, is another district Republicans need to contest. Sure, it does not tilt red (Bush narrowly prevailed here in 2004, but Obama beat McCain by 9%), but it was specifically designed by the state legislature to be competitive. This was demonstrated by the 2006 election, in which Rep. John Barrow barely survived a strong Republican challenge.

Yet, the GOP barely contested the seat in 2008, allowing Barrow to cruise to a 32% victory. That could have been a fatal error for Republicans, as that kind of easy victory is sometimes all an endangered incumbent needs to entrench himself durably in a district.

We will soon know how solid Barrow’s position now is, as Republicans have found a candidate to run against Barrow: retired Army Lt. Col. Wayne Mosley, who served in Afghanistan and Iraq and who has enough wealth to self-fund his candidacy. He has already indicated that he intends to spend half-a-million dollars of his own money. (Republicans were hoping that Mosley would run in the 2008 cycle, but he ended up frustrating the GOP’s efforts - leading to Barrow’s easy victory.)

At the very least, Mosley’s entrance in the race puts GA-12 on the radar screen of 2010. An important question will be African-American turnout: Higher participation rates in 2008 helped Obama soar to a 9% victory in this Bush district. Will black voters come out in equally high numbers in a non-presidential year?

Southern primaries: Georgia incumbents survive, as Senate primary goes to runoff

Published
by
Taniel
on July 16, 2008
in AL-02, AL-05, GA-12 and GA-Sen
. 0 Comments

Yesterday, voters went to the polls in Georgia and Alabama to select their parties’ congressional candidates, with only one competitive Senate primary 5 Georgia Democrats vied for the right to take on incumbent Saxby Chambliss. As expected, no candidate reached 50%, so the top two contenders move on to a runoff that will be held on August 5th: DeKalb County Chief Executive Officer Vernon Jones, who came in first with 41%, and former state Rep. Jim Martin, who got 35%.

The Georgia Senate race is not expected to be a top-tier race and Chambliss is heavily favored to win re-election. However, he is a freshman Senator and should not be considered completely safe. The DSCC is looking to expand the map further and it needs to put as many third-tier contests in play as possible to have a chance at reaching 60 seats. The Democratic candidates have thus been battling on the issue of electability. The DSCC favors Jim Martin but Jones responds that he is ideally placed to win the race because he is (1) African-American, so he can count on massive black support and (2) conservative, which is what a Democrat ought to be to win statewide in Georgia.

Yet, Jones might be a bit too conservative: he voted for George Bush in both 2000 and 2004, making him a super-Zell Miller! After all, even Miller supported Gore eight years ago. Can Georgia Democrats really nominate him? Well, they very well might: voters who are likely to be the most offended by the fact that Jones is likely to be to the right of a lot of Senate Republicans are African-Americans, and Jones did quite well in black-majority districts yesterday. If he can remain strong among the black vote on August 5th, it could be hard for Martin to claim victory, though what will determine the election is clearly the preference of voters who opted for one of the three other candidates.

Meanwhile, there were competitive House primaries in Georgia — though the incumbents triumphed in blow-outs. In GA-12, Democratic Rep. John Barrow faced a challenge on the left from state Senator Regina Thomas in a swing district that voted for Kerry by 1% in 2004. Some hoped that Barrow’s support of FISA would serve as a catalyst and that his views are too conservative for this divided district, but it was clear that this challenge was unlikely to succeed, simply because the race picked up too late and Thomas spent too little money. Incumbency is one of the biggest strengths in American politics and it takes a lot of time and effort to topple an incumbent.

That Barack Obama jumped in the fray, endorsed Barrow and cut an ad on his behalf (it was a surprise at first, but not so much now that we have seen Obama’s own FISA vote) only boosted the incumbent further. In the end, Barrow easily survived, 76% to 24% and he will now face Republican John Stone. Remember that GA-12 and GA-08 were the only two seats in which a Democratic incumbent came close to losing - and they really did come very close. Barrow is slightly more favored this year, but his general election will be much more competitive than the primary.

In GA-10, however, GOP Rep. Paul Broun’s primary challenger did everything a challenger has to do and much more since he had the support of the state’s Republican establishment! It is very rare for an incumbent to battle the establishment and is due to Broun’s stunning special election primary win last summer against the favorite, who was expected to coast to victory. Now, Broun was facing a high-profile candidate (the Republican state House Majority Whip) who out-raised him, was endorsed by local papers and ran a ton of advertisements. But here again the incumbent survived easily, beating Fleming 70% to 30%.

Take this as further evidence of how difficult it is to topple an incumbent in a primary. After all, Fleming lost to someone who has been in office for less than a year and by 40% despite having the establishment’s support and a well-funded campaign.

The Alabama primaries were runoffs held on the Republican side in AL-02 and AL-05, two unexpectedly competitive open seats held by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Democrats had selected their candidates last month and Republicans did so last night, as state Rep. Jay Love will face very conservative Democrat Bobby Bright in AL-02 and insurance executive Wayne Parke will take on (also conservative) state Senator Griffith in AL-05. Love in particular survived an expensive primary with only 54%, despite the support of high-profile House Republicans and the benefit of self-funding. The former seat leans retention (for the GOP) while the latter is a toss-up.

OR-heavy down-ballot thread: Sen. Smith touts Dem endorsements and GOP House candidate hit by abortion scandal

Published
by
Taniel
on June 23, 2008
in GA-12, NY-13, OR-05, OR-Sen and SC-Sen
. 5 Comments

Running for re-election in liberal-leaning Oregon, Gordon Smith has long known that he will have to fight hard to win re-election. Though Democrats threw him a lifeline by failing to recruit one of their strongest candidates, their nominee Jeff Merkley is solid enough to keep the race competitive. Smith has been preparing for more than a year by moving towards the center on enough issues to coherently argue that he is no Bush lackey, particularly on the Iraq War: Smith was one of the first Republicans to break with the Administration and start critiquing the war effort — though his new ad is disingenuously forcing that trait by describing him as “one of the first to stand up to George Bush and other Republicans to end this war.”

This latest ad features a Democratic state representative and a Democratic state Senator endorsing the Republican Senator, praising him for his bipartisanship:

Keep in mind that while Bush is certainly very unpopular in Oregon, this is not the bluest state in the country we are talking about. The extent to which Smith is trying to shake off the GOP label and claim the bipartisan mantle is remarkable and revealing of how much trouble Republican incumbents are in this year solely because of their party’s dismal ratings. And the fact that elected Democratic officials are willing to participate in his advertisement efforts speaks to the fact that the Oregon Democratic Party has not really gotten its act together. Smith has led in all polls of the race, though his advantage is within single-digits and he comes in under 50% — a sure sign of vulnerability. Given Al Franken’s troubles in MN, the DSCC is sure to devote as much resources to this race as necessary.

Meanwhile, Oregon Republicans are letting the open seat of OR-05 slip out of their hands despite it being one of only two competitive Democratic-held open seats. You might remember that, back in May, Mike Erickson was viciously attacked by his primary opponent Kevin Manni for having paid his girlfriend’s abortion years ago. Right to Life blasted Erickson immediately, but all that drama unfolded too late to damage Erickson in a state in which most voters sent their ballot in early via mail. Erickson prevailed in the primary, leading Democrats to rejoice that the GOP had nominated a candidate too damaged to be competitive in the general and some Republicans are refusing to support Erickson.

Now, the woman whose abortion Erickson allegedly paid for has been contacted by the Oregonian and she confirms Mannix’s story. She reveals being particularly angered by Erickson’s denying the story and his attempts at campaigning as a pro-lifer: “Tawnya, a registered Republican, said she received a campaign flier with a photo of Erickson next to a baby, touting his endorsement by the anti-abortion group Oregon Right to Life. The mailer made him out to be “some sort of safe haven for babies, and honestly, it made me sick,” she said.” Erickson denies the story entirely — but this isn’t going to help his already rocky relationship with local conservative activists.

In other — tragic — House news, the candidate endorsed by the Staten Island GOP to run for Vito Fossella’s House seat in NY-13 passed away yesterday. The Republican Party turned to Powers on May 29th after a slate of potential GOP candidates declined to run for this Republican-held seat, in a reflection of the long odds the party faces in keeping its last New York City seat. The GOP will now presumably reconvene to endorse another candidate, and the names of some candidates who had previously declined to run (starting with state Sen. Lanza) are being mentioned again. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon was already favored to win this seat that has now gone through months of unexpected and at times tragic news.

Moving on to the Senate, South Carolina was never on anyone’s list of vulnerable Senate seats, but a party always likes to have some sort of credible challenger in case the incumbent has a meltdown, commits a huge blunder or has some senior moment (see Kentucky in 2004 and Virginia in 2006). Well, it turns out that SC Democrats might have nominated… a Republican to take on Senator Lindsay Graham. Bob Conley has had a long relationship with the GOP and, while he claims to have left the party back in 2000 or 2001, he won a spot on the Republican Party’s Horry County executive committee in February 2007. While he pledged to be a Democrat when filing his candidacy papers and thus resigned from the GOP, this shouldn’t push the DSCC to attempt anything in SC even if Graham suffers the worst scandals over the next few months.

Finally, the roll call of the House vote on the FISA bill is now up, and 128 Democrats voted nay versus 105 who voted yea, including many of their prized pick-ups of 2006 (Altmire, Gillibrand, Arcuri, Boyda, Sestak, Pennsylvania’s Murphy), many of whom represent more or less conservative districts. Of the two Udalls who are looking to upgrade to the Senate, New Mexico’s voted Nay and Colorado’s voted yea. The former is more of a shoo-in than the latter. As Glenn Greenwald reports, there is some massive fundraising going on to punish Democrats supporting the bill and the sight of activists is set on Rep. Barrow of GA-12 (one of the most conservative Dems in the House, even though he represents a district won by Kerry). Remember that a heated primary is being held in that district, but Obama chose to cut an ad for Barrow last week.