Archive for the 'FL-13' Category

Sanford’s disappearance damages ‘12 ambitions, confirms rifts in state GOP

Published
by
Taniel
on June 23, 2009
in FL-13, GOP 2012, SC-Gov and Sanford
. 6 Comments

If we weren’t talking about a state’s chief executive, Mark Sanford’s five-day disappearance could be amusing. But when we’re talking about the South Carolina Governor left his office vacant without informing his staff or family of where he was going, it becomes downright bizarre. That Sanford’s staff thought it an appropriate response to say that the Governor was hiking somewhere along the Appalachia Mountain without offering any evidence that they had any other idea of where he was located along that 2,175-mile stretch are leaving me even more perplexed.

And the story could still get more complicated: We are now learning that Sanford’s car was tracked down at an Atlanta airport, leading the local media to diagnosis a hole in the Appalachia story. [Update: Well, we just learned that Sanford had flown to Argentina! He is back in South Carolina today.]

Wherever Sanford is, what I find most shocking is that Sanford apparently did not even inform those officials who should have been called to replace him - those officials who would have been tasked with taking major decisions had an unexpected crisis erupted - leading Republican Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer to voice his disapproval yesterday.

In defense of the Governor, state Senator Greg Ryberg argued today that Sanford would be able to quickly come back in case of emergency, just as he did in 2007 when he was on a trade mission to Estonia. “If they can contact him in Eastern Europe, then they can also contact him in a national park a few miles from here,” he said. Well, it was clear where Sanford was in Estonia; but the entire reason this is a story is that no one knows where he is and no one has been able to say whether the state police has been kept informed - so I find it unlikely Ryberg knows that Sanford is in “a national park a few miles from here.”

Don’t forget that we are talking here about a politician with 2012 ambitions - and one who was often mentioned as a potential running-mate for John McCain. Sanford’s refusal to accept part of Barack Obama’s stimulus funds made him one of the more visible leaders of the Republican opposition, and that positioned him well for a presidential run of his own. But I don’t see him surviving this incident, not only because he will be pilloried by late-night comedians but also because this raises questions about his judgment.

I never understood why former Senator Mark Dayton got so ridiculed for being the only lawmaker to close his office because of a terrorist threat a few years ago, but this is no longer about eccentricity - the buzz word that seems be most used to describe Sanford today. What we’re talking about is whether you can be trusted in an executive position, and a Governor’s leaving his post without informing anyone he was doing so is just such formidable material for Sanford’s opponents to use if he seeks national office.

What’s also interesting in this story is the deep rifts it reveals within South Carolina’s Republican Party. Here’s a state where Democrats have been very low, but the GOP has managed to create political competition within itself. It’s well-known that Sanford is detested by many Republican legislators because of his inflexible style and his strict opposition to earmarks (he once sent live pigs to the state legislature to denounce pork-barrel spending) but he has also attracted the enmity of officials in non-legislative positions like Lieutenant Governor Bauer. (That explains why Bauer was so willing to denounce a Governor of his own party yesterday.)

Not only has this made for fireworks in South Carolina government but it also makes the GOP’s gubernatorial primary one of 2010’s potentially most explosive contests. Sanford is term-limited. Democrats are unlikely to put up much of a race, which will surely make the GOP primary that much more ferocious.

Bauer is already running, as is arch-conservative Rep. Greshman Barrett. Iit looks like the Sanford-wing of the party could be represented by Rep. Nikki Haley, one of the Governor’s rare allies within the legislature. If she does enter the race, the primary could be a replay of all the clashes that have divided the state GOP during the past 8 years - and you can now add Sanford’s disappearance to the list of divisive episodes.

Indeed, while many Republicans are willing to attack Sanford quite viciously today, those who are defending him are even more vehement. State Senator Ryberg, for instance, blasted Sanford’s critics as elitists insiders who are looking to let Columbia burn:

What is this bizarre obsession with security? It reeks of elitism — one that pervades South Carolina government at all levels. South Carolina legislators should spend less time worrying about bodyguards and more time worrying about the double-digit unemployment and reckless spending that really matters to the people who pay for the perks and status symbols of the legislators.

Another politician whose political career could be endangered by new scandals and controversies is Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida. First elected in 2006, Buchanan easily won re-election in 2008 despite allegations that he had pressured former employees to donate to his campaign. Now, The Tampa Bay Times is out with a lengthy report documenting new allegations that Buchanan might have to face.

In 2008, a registed Democrat with no political history and who had recently filed for bankruptcy donated $19,000 to Buchanan’s campaign and to the state Republican Party. He is now denying having given that money in good faith and saying that Timothy Mobley (a man whose companies has ties to Buchanan) offered to reimburse him for his contribution. That sort of maneuver is banned by federal law, and we’ll have to see how the story unfolds since it ties in to allegations Buchanan has faced in the past.

Charlie Crist jumps in the Senate race

Published
by
Taniel
on May 12, 2009
in FL-13, FL-Gov and FL-Sen
. 4 Comments

After delaying his decision for months, Governor Charlie Crist took the plunge and announced he would run in Florida’s Senate race. His decision - one of the most awaited of the cycle - significantly boosts the GOP’s prospects of holding on to Mel Martinez’s Senate seat, sets up an ideologically divisive Republican primary, creates a suddenly competitive gubernatorial race and shuffles the entire landscape of Floridan politics.

Crist’s Senate candidacy had come to be so expected in recent weeks that it is easy to forget how unlikely it seemed at the beginning of the year. A highly popular Governor up for re-election in 2010, Crist looked likely to coast to re-election in a timing that would perfectly set up his national ambitions: Crist would have been able to serve as the chief executive of one of the country’s largest states until 2014 when, barred by state law from seeking a third term, he could have fully devoted himself to the 2016 presidential campaign.

Instead, Crist is choosing to take a risk by jumping in a race in which he is not the incumbent. (While he is favored to win the Senate race, he is certainly more vulnerable than he would be in the gubernatorial race.) Furthermore, senators often do not make the best presidential candidates: governors are generally considered to be more electable. In the current context of anti-Washington sentiment within the GOP electorate, Crist’s distance from the federal capital could have been one of his best argument in the 2012/2016 primary.

Given this context, Crist’s decision to take the jump speaks to the political danger in which governors find themselves because of the financial crisis. As economic conditions deteriorate, Governors are the first to see their numbers collapse - a pattern that we have clearly witnessed in recent months. While Crist’s numbers are still solid, he chose not to risk being mired in the state’s fiscal problems for the next five years - a prospect that would have undoubtedly sent his numbers spiraling downward and would have endangered his presidential ambitions.

Crist: The clear front-runner for the Senate seat

Yet, the choice must not have been an obvious one and credits go to the NRSC for talking the Governor into a Senate run. When we first learned that John Cornyn was working to recruit Crist, it seemed like wishful thinking on the part of the Republican establishment. But 5 months after, Crist entered the race, throwing a major lifeline to still-sinking Senate Republicans.

In recent weeks, a lot has been written about why Crist might not be invincible next year. But make no mistake about it: He starts as the overwhelming favorite. Just look at these two polls taken in January and February that show Crist demolishing all potential opponents by huge margins. The burden will be on his opponents to prove that they can hold him to a competitive race.

Crist’s first test will come in the Republican primary. Former state Speaker Marco Rubio is already in the race, and he has made it clear that he will not bow out for Crist. Given that conservatives are angry at the Governor’s moderate positions on many economic and social issues, this primary could have fireworks; Rubio is likely to be a strong fundraiser and deliver some tough hits.

Yet, Crist’s primary vulnerability should not be overstated: He was already known to be a moderate in 2006, when he easily won a primary that was expected to be competitive, and polls taken over the past few months suggest he remains popular among the GOP electorate. Furthermore, the NRSC has just announced that it is already endorsing Crist, which means that it will help Crist win a Republican primary. That is more meaningful than it might appear: National committees are typically reluctant to get involved that openly in contested primaries.

As for Democrats, Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Senator Dan Gelber are currently in the race. Crist looks so strong that no other Democrat is expected to jump in. As soon as news of his decision started to circulate yesterday, Tampa Bay Mayor Pam Iorio announced that she would not run for Senate. Rep. Ron Klein looked unsure of running even without Crist, so this development probables ensures that he stays out. In fact, we might even have to ask whether Meek will remain in the race: For now, he has proven an unexpectedly strong candidate, but will the ambitious representative decide that the race is too big a risk?

As I explained last week, the biggest threat to Crist’s victory is that Florida’s Republican primary is held in late August; if Rubio manages to put him in a difficult position throughout the summer of 2010, the Governor will suddenly look far less formidable to Democrats. Under such circumstances, Meek or Gelber are strong enough candidates that they would have a shot at winning the general election.

Sure, Crist’s road to the Senate could prove tricky. But given the GOP’s open seat headaches this cycle (as well as in 06 and 08), the comfort of knowing that their Florida fate is in Crist’s hands must fill them with indescribable relief.

On the other hand, it will be lost to no one that Crist is as moderate a Republican as Florida could elect. He might not end up siding with Democrats as much as Olympia Snowe, but he would be far less reliable than Mel Martinez. In fact, his profile is comparable to Arlen Specter’s: He is clearly center-right but he is also bound to infuriate Republicans time and time again.

A wide open gubernatorial race

Crist’s move pushes the competitiveness out of the Senate contest and into the gubernatorial race by creating the 18th open seat of the 2010 cycle. This is a golden opportunity for Democrats to regain their footing in state politics and recapture the Governor’s mansion.

That said, the gubernatorial race sans Crist is unlikely to look as chaotic as the Senate race did before Crist jumped in. His retirement quite dramatically shuffles the Senate race, but it merely moves up the gubernatorial timeline by four years since Florida’s ambitious politicians were preparing for an open race in 2014.

As such, both parties have prominent candidates with transparent gubernatorial ambitions who will start the race as their parties’ front-runners. On the Democratic side, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink passed on the Senate race in January but she is expected to run for Governor; it remains to be seen whether she will face much primary opposition and she should be a formidable general election candidate.

On the Republican side, the field is less clear but all eyes turn towards Attorney General Bill McCollum. This conservative Republican narrowly lost the 2000 Senate race’s general election, and he fell to Martinez in the primary of the 2004 contest. Yet, he managed a political comeback in 2006; as a statewide officer, he is well positioned to attract establishment support. Other potential candidates include state Senate president Jeff Atwater and Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson.

(GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan, who was considering a statewide run, announced today that he would run for re-election instead. That is a blow to Democrats, who were hoping that they would have a shot at an open race in red-leaning but nonetheless competitive FL-13. Buchanan is favored to win another House term.)

As this list of potential candidates reveals, Crist’s move is likely to lead to a game of musical chairs up-and-down the ballot: Sink and McCollum were preparing to run for re-election in 2010. If they were to decide to run for Governor,  it would create high-profile statewide open seats that would further shuffle Florida’s political landscape.

Finally, the fact that Crist’s retirement gives Democrats a shot at the Governor’s mansion 4 years earlier than expected could have major repercussions at the federal level:  Who will control the next round of redistricting in Florida in 2011-2012 is now up in the air!

If Crist had run for re-election, Republicans would have been virtually certain to draw the state’s next electoral map; but Democrats now have a shot to regain power in time to have a say in the redistricting process and undo some of the damage of the GOP’s gerrymandering at the beginning of this decade. In short, the gubernatorial race could decide which party controls three to five House seats in the next decade.

DCCC goes on one of its last spending sprees

Published
by
Taniel
on October 29, 2008
in AK-AL, AL-05, AZ-01, AZ-03, AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-13, FL-18, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, IA-04, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, IN-09, KS-02, KS-03, KY-02, LA-06, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-03, MN-06, MO-06, MO-09, MS-01, NC-08, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-03, NJ-07, NM-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-20, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, SC-01, Uncategorized and WY-AL
. 0 Comments

With a week remaining before Election Day, all campaigns and national committees are budgeting their final advertising push and buying media time to last them through November 4th. The DCCC has poured in nearly $15 million in almost 40 districts already this week. More investments are likely to come today and tomorrow, first because the DCCC has left out a number of districts in which it regularly invests and because it appears that the NRCC has yet to make its last round of expenditures. But the DCCC’s $14 million latest spending spree gives us a good idea of which seats Democrats are the most committed to. (Most of the following numbers come from SSP’s always very handy House expenditure tracker.)

In three districts did the DCCC go for broke; all are currently held by the GOP: In IL-10, the DCCC just poured in an impressive $929,279, bringing its total investment in the district to more than $2 million. (This is partly explained by the fact that IL-10 is in the expensive Chicago market). In NV-03, the DCCC bought more than $750,000 of air time against Rep. Porter, bringing its total to more than $2.3 million. And in IL-11, $600,000 worth of advertisement (and a total that surpasses $2 million) should help Debbie Halvorson win this open seat.

Another group of seats - here again predominantly GOP-held - saw massive investments of more than $500,000. Those include the once-safe AZ-03, NC-08, NH-01, NM-01, OH-15 (the total surpasses $2 million in each of these five districts), MN-06 (the DCCC has now spent more than $1 million in two weeks on Bachmann’s seat) and the conservative NM-02 (for a total of $1.5 million). This makes New Hampshire’s Carol Shea-Porter the most protected Democratic incumbent, and confirms the remarkable development by which the DCCC has poured more effort in AZ-03 than in many seats that were more obviously competitive.

Also notable are the DCCC’s expenditures that top $400,000. Here again the list is made up of Republican seats: MD-01, MN-03 and OH-01 (total spending in each now tops $2 million), MI-07 and MI-09 (total spending in each tops $1 million), CA-04 and NY-26. Between $200,000 and $400,000, we have AZ-01 (an open seat that is considered an easy Democratic pick-up but where the DCCC has now spent more than $2 million), CO-04, KY-02, MO-09, FL-24 (all now more than $1 million total), FL-21, FL-25, NE-02, OH-02, NY-29, FL-08, IN-03 and IN-09. Rounding up six-figure expenditures are AK-AL, CA-11, CT-04, LA-06, NJ-03 and NJ-07 (all more than $1 million total), AL-05, ID-01, KS-02.

A few observations about this spending spree. First, the DCCC did not expand the map this week. The only new seat they invested in yesterday is FL-08, a district that has looked highly competitive for weeks and that I just moved to the lean take-over category this past week-end. Also noteworthy is NE-02, where the DCCC’s media buy this week is eight times higher than it was last week. However, there are a number of districts we have been talking about lately in which the DCCC is not playing despite the massive loan it took last week; those include California’s seats, IA-04, FL-13, FL-18 or even SC-01 where the DCCC has not followed up on a small investment it made last week. Furthermore, the national committee appears to have given up on MO-06, which was once considered a top opportunity but in which the DCCC has not bought air time for two weeks now.

Second, Democrats seem to be very comfortable about playing defense. They have largely pulled out of AZ-05, AZ-08 or MS-01, all districts that the GOP had high hopes of contesting; they have not had to spend a dime in places like KS-03 or NY-20, seats Republicans had vowed to contest. And they do not seem to feel particular energy in many of the blue seats in which they are investing. However, we do know that the DCCC is starting to air this ad in PA-12 on behalf of Murtha, though they have yet to report that expenditure.

The NRCC, meanwhile, posted a few expenditures over the past two days though a lot more should come tonight. Noteworthy investments include $375,000 spent in WY-AL, more than $250,000 in NE-02 and MO-09, more than $100,000 in MO-06, IN-03. What do all these districts have in common? They are extremely heavily Republican (Bush won IN-03 with 68% of the vote, for instance, and let us not even talk about WY-AL) and Republican candidates are in such a bad state that the NRCC is forced to spend its money in such districts.

(There is something to be said against the NRCC’s decision making, and we might talk about this more in the coming week: Swing seats like NM-01 or OH-16 will likely be lost for a decade or more if Democrats pick them up, yet the NRCC is not spending a dime there. Conservative seats like WY-AL or IN-03 would be likely to fall back into GOP hands in the coming cycle or two, but the NRCC is spending all of its resources in such places.)

Let’s take a closer look at Southern Florida, where the battles in FL-21 and in FL-25 have become truly vicious. Both seats are in the same Miami media market, and they are represented by the (Republican) Diaz-Balart brothers. So Democrats have decided to save money - and just air an ad targeting both Diaz-Balarts:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpMgxd3aiWo"]

The GOP’s response in FL-25 is also fascinating because it bears such a close resemblance to what is going on in the presidential race. Democratic candidate Joe Garcia is blasted for being in favor of “redistribution of the wealth,” underscoring how much Republicans are banking on Joe the Plumber at this point:

[youtube="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTm91xZQhl0"]

Poll watch: Obama dominates VA, Shadegg stays on top, Reichert and Porter tremble

Published
by
Taniel
on October 26, 2008
in AZ-03, AZ-Pres, FL-13, FL-21, GA-Pres, IA-04, IA-Pres, MD-01, MO-Pres, NH-01, NH-Pres, NH-Sen, NV-03, OH-Pres, VA-Pres, WA-08, WI-Pres and WV-Pres
. 7 Comments

How would we keep ourselves entertained without Zogby’s theatrics? Seemingly designed to give partisans of both sides heart failures, Zogby’s tracking poll jumped by 4% in one day - the type of bounciness that a tracking poll’s rolling samples are supposed to avoid. I doubt that any of the other tracking polls have ever found that big a one-day jump. But most comical are Zogby’s attempt to dramatize each of his releases, as the smallest trend is treated as a game-changing shift.

Just three days ago, when Obama suddenly grabbed a 12% lead, Zogby celebrated the coming “Reagan-style landslide.” By this morning, Zogby had moved to a gloomy assessment of Obama’s chances and offered a truly incomprehensible insight: “I have alluded before to this strange, magnetic pull that brings Obama down to 48% or 49%, a danger zone for him.” I am not sure what that means. A more interesting “magnetic pull” is McCain’s inability to break out of the low 40s, including in Zogby’s polls. In seven new national polls, McCain’s total ranges from 40% to 45%. The day McCain manages to inch above 45%, we can think about whether the race is tightening.

At the state level, the situation remains stable, with Obama maintaining his edge in what have now become his “base” states (he jumps to a 15% edge in New Hampshire, leads by double-digit in two surveys of Iowa) and looking good in the large number of red states, any one of which would get him over the top: He leads by 9% in Virginia, by 4% in Ohio while Missouri is locked in dead heat. Even Arizona no longer looks like a lock for McCain, with two (Democratic) polls showing the race within the margin of error, and McCain’s leads in Georgia and West Virginia are far narrower than was expected. The only bright spot of McCain’s day is a Wisconsin poll released by Rasmussen showing the Republican nominee “only” trailing by 7%… Enough said.

  • Obama gains 1% in Hotline (50% to 42%) and Gallup (52% to 43%, though he loses 2% in the traditional model, 50% to 45%). The race remains stable in Rasmussen (52% to 44%) and IBD/TIPP (47% to 43%). McCain gains 1% in Research 2000 (51% to 40%), 2% in ABC/Washington Post (52% to 45%) and 4% (!) in Zogby (49% to 44%). Obama’s leads are thus: 4%, 5%, 7%, 8%, 8%, 9%, 11%.
  • Obama leads 52% to 43% in a PPP poll of Virginia. Obama led by 8% three weeks ago. Obama now leads independents by 9% and enjoys the same level of party loyalty. Obama leads 61% to 24% among new voters.
  • Obama leads 51% to 44% in a Rasmussen poll of Wisconsin. He led by 10% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 54% to 39% in a University of New Hampshire poll of New Hampshire. Obama only led by 1% earlier this month. 45% of voters now describe themselves as “firm Obama supporters,” versus 32% of McCain supporters. This poll was conducted from the 18th to the 22nd.
  • Missouri: Two polls find a one-point race, well within the margin of error. McCain is ahead 46% to 45% in a Mason Dixon poll. Obama leads 48% to 47% in a Research 2000 poll (McCain led by 1% in the latter two weeks ago).
  • Arizona: McCain leads 44% to 40% in a poll conducted by Democratic pollsters Myers Research & Grove Insight. Obama leads by 1% among those who have already voted - 34% of the sample. Another poll conducted by Zimmerman & Associates finds McCain leading 45% to 43% only.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Jeanne Shaheen leads 49% to 36% in a UNH poll of the New Hampshire Senate race. She led by 4% in September.
  • In NH-01, Democratic Rep. Shea-Porter grabs a 44% to 39% lead in a UNH poll. She trailed by 3% a month ago. No surprises in NH-02, where Democrat Rep. Hodes dominates.
  • In NV-03, Democratic challenger Titus leads Rep. Porter 47% to 45% in a Research 2000 poll. Among early voters, Titus leads by 11% and Obama leads by 19%.
  • In WA-08, Reichert and Burner are tied at 46% in a Research 2000 poll. Reichert led by 8% two weeks ago. SUSA and two Democratic internal polls recently found the same trendline in Burner’s favor.
  • In KY-02, a DCCC poll has Democratic candidate David Boswell leading 47% to 41%.
  • In IA-04, GOP Rep. Latham leads Democratic candidate Becky Greenwald 47% to 42% in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In FL-21, GOP Rep. Diaz Balart leads Raul Martinez 45% to 44% in a Research 2000 poll. Martinez leads 55% to 42% among early voters.
  • In MD-01, GOP candidate Andy Harris has a narrow 44% to 40% lead in a Research 2000 poll.
  • In FL-13, GOP Rep. Buchanan leads Christine Jennings 45% to 34% in a Research 2000 poll. He led by 12% last month. Among early voters, it is Jennings who has a narrow 3% lead.
  • In AZ-03, GOP Rep. Shadegg leads 50% to 40% in a Research 2000 poll, an improvement over his 9% lead two weeks ago.

A wave of independent House polls bring good news to both parties. Despite the million and a half the DCCC has poured against Shadegg, the Arizona Republican stays at the critical 50% mark; in FL-13, Rep. Buchanan confirms that he is well positioned to survive the blue wave; and in NV-03, Rep. Porter has see worse numbers than this one. That said, Dona Titus remains in a great position to pick-up that latter district, and the one-way spending should only continue to drown Porter.

The news is good for Democrats in NH-01, where Rep. Shea-Porter continues to improve her position, and WA-08, where Darcy Burner has erased the lead Rep. Reichert had opened up over the past month in the second independent poll released this week. Furthermore, Democratic candidates look strong in a large number of second-to-fourth tier contests (FL-21, MD-01, IA-04) and can hope for a few upsets victories on Election Day.

Poll watch: Obama leads in MO, OH, FL and PA; Chambliss within MoE, Merkley gains

Published
by
Taniel
on October 13, 2008
in FL-13, FL-25, FL-Pres, GA-Pres, GA-Sen, LA-06, MO-Gov, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, ND-Pres, NJ-Pres, NJ-Sen, NV-03, NV-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Pres, OR-Sen and PA-Pres
. 0 Comments

The window is closing for McCain to alter the state of play - something he needs to do to have a chance at saving his ticket in the multitude of red states in which he is now endangered. Yet, it is Obama who continues to post impressive gains day after day, for instance surging ahead to a dominant lead in a new poll of Missouri and taking the lead for the very first time in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio.

As always, the take-away lesson of these polls is the fact that Obama looks untouchable in blue states (he has two new double digit leads in Pennsylvania) and the high number of red states in which he has either tied McCain or looks to be ahead. Rasmussen’s weekly survey of 5 red states shows that McCain doesn’t have the lead in a single one, and Obama’s advantage is outside of the MoE in Florida - a state in which he has now led in the 9 most recent polls. Add to that new Obama leads in Nevada and in North Dakota (!), a second Obama lead in Ohio and it becomes obvious that McCain needs to dramatically change the dynamics at the national level.

Particularly noteworthy are the fact that Obama is leading in two MO surveys (including 8% in SUSA) and in ND. Even if the latter poll doesn’t come from a known pollster and should thus be taken with a grain of salt, it is telling that Obama’s surge has reached such proportions that states from which he pulled out (ND) or briefly decreased his ad spending (MO) in September now show him ahead. It will take a lot of effort for McCain to put these states back in the box, let alone cut Obama’s new-found edge in more obvious battlegrounds like Colorado, Virginia and Florida. On to the day’s full roundup:

  • Obama continues to dominate the tracking polls, though his lead slightly diminishes. He leads 52% to 40% in Research 2000 (-1%), 48% to 44% in Zogby (-1%), 48% to 42% in Hotline (-2%), 50% to 45% in Rasmussen (-1%). In Gallup, Obama leads 51% to 41% (+3%) but only by 7% in a tighter likely voter screen.
  • Obama leads 53% to 43% in an ABC/Washington Post national poll. His lead is 13% among registered voters. This is a clear improvement over ABC’s previous poll two weeks ago, where Obama was ahead by 4%. Obama’s position is very strong among Democrats.
  • Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Marist poll of Ohio, including 89% of Democrats. Among registered voters, Obama leads 48% to 40%. Obama’s favorability rating has jumped up to 60%, while McCain is 54%.
  • Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the first Rasmussen poll to ever have Obama ahead in the state.
  • Obama leads 50% to 45% in a Rasmussen poll of Florida. He led by 3% in the previous Rasmussen poll.
  • Obama leads 53% to 41% in a Marist poll of Pennsylvania. He leads 49% to 40% among registered voters. His favorability rating has surged upwards to 65%, compared to 55% for John McCain.
  • Morning Call’s latest daily poll numbers from Pennsylvania have Obama leading 51% to 38%, his biggest margin yet in this tracking poll.
  • Obama leads by a remarkable 51% to 43% in a new SUSA poll of Missouri. He trailed by 2% in late September. The two are tied among white voters and Obama gets 89% of Democrats, up from 82% two weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 49% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia. He led by 2% last week.
  • The candidates are tied in a Rasmussen poll of North Carolina. Obama led by 1% last week.
  • Obama leads 55% to 40% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.
  • McCain leads 51% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia. Obama leads among the 18% of respondents who say they have already voted.
  • Obama leads 61% to 34% in a SUSA poll of New York.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • Kay Hagan leads 44% to 39% according to her internal poll of North Carolina’s Senate race.
  • Jeff Merkley leads 46% to 41% in a SUSA poll of Oregon’s Senate race. He led by only 2% in a survey two weeks ago. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow gets 7%.
  • Jay Nixon crushes Kenny Holshof 56% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Missouri’s gubernatorial race.
  • Saxby Chambliss leads 46% to 43% in a SUSA poll of Georgia’s Senate race. Chambliss led by only 2% two weeks ago.
  • Frank Lautenberg leads 51% to 38% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey’s Senate race.
  • In NV-03, Rep. Porter leads 43% to 40% in a Mason Dixon poll. The margin of error is very large, especially for an independent poll - 6% - so this is well within that.
  • In FL-25, an internal poll for the Garcia campaign finds GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leading 45% to 42%.
  • In LA-06, a DCCC internal finds Rep. Cazayoux crushing Bill Cassidy 46% to 29%, with 9% going to Democrat Michael Jackson.

Statewide: Strong numbers for Democrats, who confirm their good dispositions in Oregon and North Carolina’s Senate races (both essential to their hopes of having a good congressional Election Night). Neither Hagan nor Merkley have put the race away, certainly, but polling numbers have shifted towards both of them in recent weeks. As for Georgia, it is looking highly competitive - a late breaking race that might be remembered as the ultimate sleeper of the 2008 cycle. Whether Martin has a chance of pulling an upset likely depends on the size of the African-American turnout.

House: This is the second poll Democrats have released showing Cazayoux crushing Cassidy in LA-06. I am still as doubtful that the two Democrats combined could be 26% ahead of the Republican candidate in this conservative a district, but the GOP still has to produce any counter poll. The district is currently rated lean take-over, but that could soon change based on what the NRCC does. The Republican committee commissioned a poll from the district a few days ago. If they go out with an ad buy or release the results in the coming days, they must like their chances in the district. Otherwise, the race is indeed far less competitive than we thought.

It is as unclear what we should make of the numbers from NV-03, currently rated lean take-over. Porter is clearly vulnerable (at 43%), though he is clearly still in the game. The margin of error is large enough that it hard to draw any conclusions. As for the Florida internal polls, they confirm what we have known: FL-25 is highly competitive, while the GOP appears to have put up a solid firewall in FL-13.

Poll watch: Obama surges ahead in NV, NH and WA, falls in MN; Shaheen, Coleman lead

Published
by
Taniel
on October 3, 2008
in FL-13, IN-02, KY-04, MN-Pres, MN-Sen, NH-Pres, NH-Sen, NM-02, NV-Pres, PA-10, WA-Gov and WA-Pres
. 7 Comments

Strikingly few presidential polls were released over the past 24 hours, but enough for the now familiar Obama surge to be obvious. He improves his position in the tracking polls, which now range from a 6% lead to an 11% lead. He jumps ahead to double-digit leads in three surveys from New Hampshire and Washington (two Kerry states in which he struggled throughout September) and surged to a lead in Nevada.

That said, there is one highly problematic poll for Obama in today’s roundup: SUSA finds McCain inching ahead - though within the margin of error - in Minnesota. This might seem like an outlier, as it does contradict the 11% lead Obama had in CNN/Time’s survey on Wednesday. Yet, CNN’s poll was further from what we have been seeing lately than SUSA’s survey is. Not only did SUSA’s previous poll have a 2% race, but a lot of other polling firms have shown a narrow race over the past six weeks. A quick glance at polls released since mid-September only shows a 1-2% race in Quinnipiac, ARG and the Big Ten, while the Star Tribune found a tie.

Furthermore, there is a possible explanation for why Minnesota might not be trending back towards Obama as other blue states are doing: McCain has been investing money in the state, but Obama has not (only in markets that touch neighboring battleground states) - and I believe this is the only state in the country in which this is the case. Not to mention that Minnesota has an independent streak. All of this is to say that  Democrats should not dismiss McCain’s strength in Minnesota - 10 electoral votes are on the line. On to a full roundup of the day’s polls:

  • Obama maintained a robust advantage in the day’s tracking polls. He leads 51% to 40% in Research 2000, 51% to 44% in Rasmussen, 48% to 42% in Diego Hotline (+1) and 49% to 42% (+2) in Gallup.
  • McCain leads 48% to 47% in a SUSA poll of Minnesota (polling history). This is his first lead in the state since from March, but he has been close in a number of polls - including trailing by only 2% in the most recent SUSA survey.
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Nevada. He trailed by 3% in July and in August.
  • Obama leads 53% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Washington. Obama only led by 2% in early September. This is the second poll of the state to find Obama expanding his lead.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

  • Jeanne Shaheen recaptures a 50% to 45% lead in Rasmussen poll of New Hamphsire Senate race (polling history). Sununu led by 7% last month, in what was only his second lead ever.
  • Norm Coleman once again leads by double-digit in a SUSA poll of Minnesota’s Senate race (polling history). He is ahead 43% to 33% with 19% going to independent candidate Dan Barkley, who appears to be taking more votes from Franken.
  • The DSCC immediately released an internal poll showing Franken leading 38% to 36% with 12% going to Barkley. This poll has a much higher number of undecided voters.
  • In NM-02, Democratic candidate Harry Teague leads Ed Tinsley 47% to 43% in a Research 2000 poll. This is a very conservative district that Bush won 58% to 42%, but McCain only leads 49% to 42%.
  • In PA-10, an internal poll for the Carney campaign finds him leading 50% to 36%. He led by 27% in August, however.
  • In FL-13, Rep. Buchanan has a big lead in a SUSA poll, 49% to 33%.
  • No surprise in KY-04, a state that is not on anyone’s list of competitive races. Rep. Davis leads 58% to 36% in a SUSA poll.
  • Rep. Donnelly leads Republican Luke Puckett 53% to 35% in a South Bend Tribune poll of IN-02. This is not considered a competitive race, but the GOP had very high hopes for it at the beginning of the cycle.
  • Gregoire and Rossi are tied at 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Washington’s gubernatorial race. Rossi led by 6% last month - his biggest lead yet. Most polls have shown a complete dead heat.

Senate: Rasmussen’s New Hampshire poll is a huge relief for Democrats, though it certainly does not mean that Sununu’s late comeback should be dismissed. There is now little question that Rasmussen’s September poll was an outlier - no other pollster has found a result anywhere close to that for the past 10 months! But a number of polls have shown the race tightening, and Sununu, who routinely trailed by double-digits until the summer, is within striking distance.

Minnesota’s polling has been as confusing as the attacks the candidates are hurling at each other or Jesse Ventura’s decision process - and this latest dual release confirms that it is difficult to know what is going on. That said, the best news for Coleman isn’t that he is leading by 10% in SUSA but that independent candidate Barkley is hurting Franken more than he is hurting him. Coleman’s ads against Franken have been very personal, and that could mean that a lot of voters who do not want to vote for Coleman because of his party (the DSCC is heavily on the air as well, after all) now have a third-party option to voice their anger! If Barkley and Franken divide the anti-Coleman vote, the incumbent could survive.

House: Research 2000’s survey from NM-02 is without a doubt the most interesting of the day’s polls. This is a conservative district, but it embodies the GOP’s open seat headaches. Along with MD-01, MO-09 or AL-02, this is a district Republicans should have no trouble defending - and perhaps in no other year than in 2006 or 2008 would Democrats have a shot at a pick-up. But Teague looks ideally placed to ride the Democratic improvements in the district and his opponent’s weakness. An internal poll for the Teague campaign found him leading just a few days ago, and this independent survey confirms that finding.

Poll watch: FL is dead heat, Obama leads in second NC poll, widens gap in PA

Published
by
Taniel
on September 29, 2008
in CA-Pres, CO-Pres, FL-13, FL-18, FL-25, FL-Pres, GA-Sen, KY-Pres, NC-Sen, NJ-03, NJ-Pres, OH-Pres, PA-10, PA-Pres, Proposition 8, TN-Pres, VA-Pres and WY-Pres
. 4 Comments

There have been relatively few polls released over the past few days, as it makes little sense to conduct surveys that are in the field both before and after the presidential debate. But the few surveys that were released today confirm that Obama continues to gain - though perhaps at a less dramatic pace than some polls last week suggested.

Obama’s strongest showing today comes in Pennsylvania, a state that is still rated a toss-up in my ratings but where two polls today find Obama widening the gap to 7% and 8%. Both pollsters (Morning Call and Rasmussen) had Obama leading by 3% and 4% last week in the Keystone State, implying that Obama is solidifying his claim on blue-leaning states (he opened a wide lead in a number of Michigan surveys last week).

But the basic situation remains the same: Obama is unable to put red states other than IA and NM away. The good news for Obama, however: He only needs one of those states (VA, OH, CO, NC, FL, IN…) as long as he holds on to the blue states, as he seems increasingly likely to do as PA and MI seem to be rapidly shifting towards him. And that is an awful lot of toss-up states to choose from… In today’s polls only, he leads in Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado - all within the margin of error, sure, but he also trails within the MoE in Ohio and Florida. As long as Obama stays ahead nationally, is it really conceivable that McCain sweeps all these toss-up red states?

In particular, Obama’s gains are dramatic in North Carolina, where Obama leads for the second time ever and for the second time in a row. There is little question left that North Carolina has become a toss-up that will consume the GOP’s attention over the next few weeks. Obama also gains significant ground in Florida (5% in SUSA and 5% in Rasmussen compared to a poll taken last week-end).

On to the day’s full roundup, and note that I have fully updated my polling page (I had fallen behind), and added some color coding to make it easier to follow:

  • Obama keeps up his lead in all four tracking polls. He leads by 5% in Diego Hotline (47% to 42%) and Rasmussen (50% to 45%). He maintains an 8% lead in Gallup (50% to 42%) and a 9% lead in Research 2000 (51% to 42%), whose Saturday sample had Obama leading by 11%. Interestingly, McCain is at 42% in three out of the four tracking polls.
  • Obama leads 47% to 45% in a PPP poll of North Carolina (polling history), with 3% for Bob Barr. This is Obama’s second lead ever in the state, and it comes only a few days after the first (in a Rasmussen survey that found the same margin). PPP found a tie last week, which was already considered a strong result for Obama. 20% of the sample is back - about where it was in 2004, so PPP’s surveys don’t even posit an increase in the share of black voters. Sarah Palin’s popularity is falling.
  • McCain leads 48% to 47% in SUSA’s latest poll from Florida (polling history). McCain led by 6% in SUSA’s past two surveys. Obama’s biggest gain occurs among Democrats, where he finally surges above the 80% line… The poll was taken Saturday and Sunday, after Friday’s debate.
  • The candidates are tied at 47% in Rasmussen’s latest poll from Florida. This is a 5% improvement for Obama since last week.
  • Obama leads 50% to 42% in a Rasmussen poll of Pennsylvania (polling history). He led by only 3% last week.
  • Obama leads 49% to 42% in Morning Call’s 5-day tracking poll of Pennsylvania. He led by 6% yesterday, 4% on Friday.
  • Obama leads 50% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Virginia, within the margin of error. Obama led by 5% in a Rasmussen poll taken mid-last week, but trailed by 2% a week ago.
  • Obama leads 49% to 48% in a Rasmussen poll of Colorado. Obama led by 3% last week.
  • McCain leads 48% to 47% in a Rasmussen poll of Ohio. This is the same margin as a poll taken last Thursday, but a 3% improvement for Obama since a week ago.
  • Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey.

Meanwhile, in down-ballot polls:

  • Kay Hagan takes her biggest lead yet in any poll, 46% to 38% in the latest PPP survey of North Carolina’s Senate race (polling history). Libertarian Chris Cole gets 6%, which allows Hagan to hold Dole under 50% of the white vote.
  • GOP Rep. Ros-Lehtinen has a large lead, 53% to 36%, against Annette Taddeo in a Research 2000 poll of FL-18.
  • GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart leads Joe Garcia 45% to 41% in a Research 2000 poll of FL-25. The poll does find Obama trailing by 15%, though Kerry lost the district by 12%.
  • In NJ-03, a Zogby poll finds GOP candidate Chris Myers narrowly ahead of John Adler, 39% to 37%. 22% are undecided.
  • In PA-10, Rep. Chris Carney leads Republican challenger Paul Hackett according to a Lycoming College poll.
  • A DSCC-sponsored poll finds Saxby Chambliss leading only 37% to 34% (down from a 6% lead in August) in Georgia’s Senate race (polling history), but the pollster’s decision to not push undecideds at all doesn’t strike that much confidence in Jim Martin’s chances.
  • California’s Proposition 8 would be defeated 55% to 41% according to the latest PPIC poll.

Instead of releasing poll numbers, the DSCC would be investing some money into running an ad campaign in Georgia’s Senate race if they were that confident that this is a 3% race. To choose to not push undecideds at all in this red a state can be a way to lower an incumbent Republican’s numbers. Until we get more proof that Chambliss is this vulnerable, Georgia cannot be considered part of the top tier Senate races.

That said, Democrats can certainly celebrate Elizabeth Dole’s continuing collapse. What is truly worrisome for the incumbent Senator is that many pollsters are showing a similar trendline. Before this PPP poll, it was Rasmussen that had found Dole sinking to a new low at the end of last week. And Dole will also have to struggle against Obama’s ground game.

As for the House races, Democrats have their eyes on many Florida seats - and not all look as promising as they would hope. Of the three Southern Florida districts, however, two seem ripe for pick-up (FL-21 and FL-25), but this is not the first poll to find that Ros-Lehtinen looks safe in FL-18. The situation in FL-13 seems more debatable, but it does look like Democrats missed an opportunity in 2006 (or did they? in no district was the result as controversial as here).

Poll watch: Obama up in pre-debate trackings, McConnell and Porter in danger

Published
by
Taniel
on September 27, 2008
in CA-04, CT-Pres, FL-13, IA-Pres, KY-Sen, LA-Pres, LA-Sen, MI-07, NV-03, NY-Leg, Nat-Poll and SC-Sen
. 6 Comments

As we now wait to see whether the first debate will move any numbers (and perhaps fulfill the 1980 parallel I have talked about before), any presidential poll released this week-end should be seen as a baseline to see whether either candidate receives a bounce since most will have been in the field before the debate. That’s why we will exceptionally start with some down-the-ballot surveys in today’s poll watch:

  • In what is the most shocking of the day’s polls, Mason Dixon finds the Kentucky Senate race is a dead heat: McConnell leads 45% to 44%, and the race is tied when leaners are not included.
  • In more good news for Southern Democrats, Rasmussen shows Mary Landrieu cruising. She leads John Kennedy 54% to 41% in what is one of the least polled Senate races of the cycles. Landrieu led by 17% in August.
  • McCain’s best friend Lindsay Graham leads 51% to 42% against “Democrat” Bob Conley in a Research 2000 poll of South Carolina’s Senate race.
  • In what is the day’s most instructive new House poll, an incumbent Republican (NV-03’s Porter) released an internal poll in which he only leads 41% to 39%. This is a response to Dona Titus’s survey earlier this week that showed her leading by 9%.
  • In CA-04, a Research 2000 poll finds Democrat Charlie Brown with a narrow lead over Tom McClintock, 46% to 41%. This is a very conservative district, and an open seat.
  • In FL-13, an internal poll for the Jennings campaign finds the Democrat trailing Rep. Buchanan 44% to 40%.
  • In MI-07, Tim Walberg released an internal poll showing him leading 50% to 40% to contest the internal released by his opponent two days ago which showed him trailing by 6%. But Walberg’s poll only sampled 300 voters, with a very large margin of error of 5.7%.
  • For those interested in the crucial battle for New York’s state Senate, Siena polled six of the most competitive districts (how often do we see independent polls released for state legislature races) and finds that Democrats are in a good position to finally take the majority but that Republicans have a fighting chance.
  • Also, SUSA finds that California voters approve 52% to 36% of a proposition that would institute a 48-hour waiting period for minors to have an abortion after their parents are told.

Any time an incumbent thinks that it is a good thing to be getting 41% in an internal poll, you know that they are in real trouble. Porter’s internal is as damning for him than Titus’s internal poll was the other day because it shows that Porter’s campaign is now so worried that he is falling behind that they are looking to celebrate a poll with a 5% margin of error that shows their candiate stuck in the low 40s.

But the day’s most important congressional survey is undoubtedly Mason Dixon’s shocker from Kentucky’s Senate race. Early this week, SUSA released a poll that found a 3% race, which led me to wonder whether Democrats could make Kentucky into their 10th competitive seat. Mason Dixon’s survey answers in the affirmative, and the Senate Minority Leader is finding himself in a real fight. The DSCC has not yet invested in the race, probably since Lunsford can take care of himself and self-fund his campaign; but McConnell remains a formidable candidate with a large war chest and an entrenched incumbent with a well-oiled machine, so national Democrats would probably need to get involved at some point. Also, Lunsford will have to overcome the coattails of the presidential race, which were fatal to Mongiardo in 2004.

But however much Democrats still have work to do, Kentucky’s emergence as a tight battleground in the Senate battle is very worrisome news for the GOP.

Meanwhile, in presidential polling:

  • The day’s trackings were favorable to Obama, though even Friday night’s samples were almost entirely taken before the presidential debate. And for once, all trackings show very similar results! Obama leads by 5% in Gallup (49% to 44%) and Diego Hotline (48% to 43%), by 6% in Rasmussen (50% to 44%) and Research 2000 (49% to 43%).
  • Obama leads 51% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Iowa. He led by 5% last month.
  • Obama leads 54% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Connecticut.

These tracking polls might not tell us much about the reaction to the debate, but they underscore that (1) McCain doesn’t appear to have benefited from his Wednesday afternoon gamble, and (2) that it was important it was for McCain to score a game-changer last night. He needed to do what John Kerry succeeded in doing in 2004, when Kerry went in the debate trailing widely and managed to close the gap thanks to the first debate, entering October in a very competitive position. I don’t believe (and neither did the first snap polls) that he succeeded in doing so.

Thursday polls: Flurry of down-the-ballot polls find Prop 8 failing, tight race in FL-21

Published
by
Taniel
on August 28, 2008
in CA-Pres, CO-Pres, CO-Sen, FL-13, FL-21, ID-Sen, PA-10 and Proposition 8
. 4 Comments

The day’s most noticeable polling news is no doubt Gallup’s tracking poll that shows a 5% bounce in Obama’s favor - 8% over two days. He is ahead 48% to 42% in what is the first Gallup tracking taken entirely this week (though the Monday night interviews were mostly conducted prior to the primetime speeches). This bounce might be due to Hillary’s speech, which received an overwhelmingly positive reception according to Gallup.

That said, the Gallup tracking is for now more important for the way it will influence the convention’s coverage than for what it says about the direction of the race. A one day evolution of a tracking poll is not worth getting excited about, especially because this bounce is due as much to Saturday/Sunday interviews getting out of the 3-day total (McCain had good nights over the week-end, after Hillary supporters realized she would not be the VP) as to anything that has happened in Denver. A bounce will have to be measured by its stability over a few days and Rasmussen’s tracking is not showing much movement. Meanwhile, in state polls:

  • In California, a PPIC poll taken in mid-August (the 12th to the 19th) finds Obama losing ground, up 47% to 38%. One interesting number is that Obama gets 71% of the Hispanic vote - enough to put to rest talk of any problem he might have with the Latino vote.
  • In Colorado (polling history), a poll conducted by a Republican firm (Hill Research Consultants) for the Senate campaign of Bob Schaffer finds Obama narrowly ahead of McCain, 43% to 40%.
  • In Idaho, a poll taken by Greg Smith and Associates finds McCain crushing Obama, 52% to 29%.
  • A SUSA poll tested the Obama-McCain race in a South Florida district (FL-21) as part of a House poll (see below for the congressional numbers). Bush won here by 14% in 2004, but the race is now tied at 48%- quite a swing towards Democrats. The Cuban vote, however, remains solidly anchored in the GOP column (72% for the Arizona Senator).

There was some discussion this year about Democrats making inroads in the Cuban vote and McCain progressing among Latinos. Neither development is taking place according to these California and FL-21 polls, which should bring relief to the GOP for its Florida prospects and to Democrats for their chances in the Southwest.

Needless to say that Obama cannot afford seeing his margin shrink further than a high single-digit lead in California. Given the state’s importance, Obama cannot afford to give McCain any opening - but having to advertise in the Golden State would be very expensive. For now, Obama doesn’t have much to worry about. This is the 7th summer poll from California, and the first to have him in single-digits.

Meanwhile, in down-the-ballot polls:

  • In FL-21, SUSA finds a tight race, with Democratic challenger Raul Martinez narrowly lead GOP incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart, 48% to 46%. Here is the interesting part: 20% of respondents opted to conduct the survey in Spanish, and among them the incumbent was leading 2:1. Indeed, a third of respondents were Cuban and the Republican got 70% of their vote. SUSA warns that surveys might be under-representing non-English speakers, thus understating GOP support.
  • In FL-13, an internal poll taken for Republican incumbent Vern Buchanan finds him crushing his 2006 competitor, Christine Jennings - 48% to 30%.
  • In PA-10, an internal poll released by the Carney campaign finds the incumbent Democrat leading Chris Hackett 54% to 27%. This comes two days after an independent SUSA poll found a tight race, with the Democrat ahead 49% to 45%.
  • In the Colorado Senate race (polling history) the internal Republican poll mentioned above finds Mark Udall narrowly ahead of Bob Schaffer, 41% to 38%. Both candidates’ unfavorability ratings has shot up since the April poll - 33% and 34% compared to 15% and 18% four months ago.
  • In the Idaho Senate race, a poll taken by Greg Smith and Associates finds Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch leading Larry LaRocco 41% to 30%.
  • PPIC’s poll of California finds that Proposition 8 to ban gay marriage is failing, with 54% of respondents planning to vote “no” and 40% “yes.” A parental notification proposition is much narrower, with 47% planning to vote yes versus 44%.

A lot of interesting numbers today, starting with the internal polls from PA-10 and FL-13. This is why internal polls have to be taken with a grain of salt - there is a 23% difference between Carney’s survey and SUSA’s numbers. But notice that there is only a 5% difference between Carney’s percentage in both of these polls, which is what we should take away here: Carney is slightly ahead, but he is also hovering around 50%. The same is true of FL-13, where the race leans towards Buchanan (despite the fact that Jennings might very well have won in 2006) but an independent poll might find different results.

As for FL-21, it features a furious party for the control of South Florida, along with FL-18 and FL-25. Demographic changes in the region are putting all these seats in play and Democrats have already reserved plenty of time in the South Miami media market. This is now the second poll to find Lincoln Diaz-Balart in a difficult position. A Bendixen poll released in early July had him leading 41% to 37%. It is interesting that Democrats have managed to put this in play despite the fact that the GOP retains strong support among the Cuban community.

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