Archive for the 'Colorado' CategoryPage 2 of 13

NRCC receives good news in PA-11, in CO-03 and perhaps in NY-24

Published
by
Taniel
on November 11, 2009
in CO-04, ID-01, NY-24, PA-11 and PA-17
. 0 Comments

You sure can’t accuse Republicans of not being confident heading into 2010. As has been obvious for months, the GOP’s optimist outlook about the likelihood of a red wave is helping the NRCC score recruitment coups - and the past few days have brought the party a number of new candidates.

The most important development is undoubtedly Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta’s reported decision to seek a rematch against Rep. Paul Kanjorski in Pennsylvania’s 11th district.

Well-known as a hardline conservative on immigration issues, Barletta challenged Kanjorski last year in what was one of the GOP’s top-pick opportunities of the cycle. As a longtime incumbent representing a blue-leaning district, Kanjorski should never have been in trouble in the first place. But his hold on the district weakened, partly because of ethical controversies and Barletta led in polls throughout the campaign. On Election Night, Pennsylvania was submerged by Barack Obama’s coattails and Kanjorski narrowly survived, winning 52% to 48% in a district that gave Obama 57%.

In 2010, Kanjorski will not benefit from that high a turnout level among his base and there is no reason to think his already low standing with voters will have improved. Barletta’s candidacy thus makes him one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbents yet again. Complicating matters is that Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien is running against him in the Democratic primary, which could either push Kanjorski towards retirement or force him to work hard enough to reach out to his base that it could help him in the general election.

On the other hand, Barletta will face major problems of his own, mostly that his reputation is undoubtedly far worse today than it was in early 2008: The DCCC spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in negative ads last year, hitting Barletta hard on issues like Social Security. That’s the kind of attack that leaves a durable trace, which explains why candidates who’ve lost a highly competitive often fail if they try again, no matter how favorable the political environment (Diane Farrell in 2006, Darcy Burner and Linda Stender in 2008).

Might this be Salazar’s first competitive race since 2004?

Despite winning a red-leaning open seat in 2004, Salazar did not face much trouble winning re-election over the past two cycles. That might change next year, as the GOP has recruited a candidate and is rumored to be working on another.

State Rep. Scott Tipton announced that he would take on the incumbent. The twist: Tipton challenged Salazar in 2006, and lost by a decisive 25%. But that loss came before Tipton won a seat in the state House, which should give him more campaign experience, more institutional support and more credibility with donors and voters. Furthermore, the 2006 environment was about as bad as it could get for Republicans in Colorado. Governor Bill Ritter’s re-election race next year will bear no resemblance to his 16% triumph the open Governor’s race four years ago.

As always, I am not saying that a red wave will submerge safe-seeming incumbents like Salazar (quite the contrary, I’ve argued that predictions of Democratic doom are way overblown), only that Republicans are positioning themselves in such a way that they’ll be able to take advantage if the environment is toxic for Democrats. And they’ll be all the better positioned if they manage to convince state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry to challenge Salazar: Penry just dropped his gubernatorial race, and his district falls in Salazar’s, which has driven up speculation that he could delight the NRCC and get in.

In NY-24, another Republican who looks set on a rematch

If PA-11 was expected to be a close race last year, absolutely no one was paying attention to NY-24: Yet, Election Night brought a stunning nail-bitter that ended in Rep. Michael Arcuri holding on to his seat by a small 4%. His 2008 rival Richard Hanna is now signaling that he’s preparing for a rematch: While he hadn’t made it clear that he was looking at 2010, he issued a press release denouncing Arcuri’s vote in favor of the health care bill.

The reason Republicans would be delighted to have Hanna get back in: He can self-fund his campaign, as he did last year. Since it’s unlikely the NRCC would commit money to this race from the get-go, the GOP needs a wealthy recruit again in 2010. Yet, Hanna shouldn’t expect a repeat of 2008: Arcuri will not be taken by surprise, nor will the DCCC. They will be sure to poll the race this time, and pour in money if they notice the incumbent is in trouble.

ID-01: One Republican in, one Republican out

As long as the GOP manages to get its act together, it should be favored to pick-up ID-01, a heavily conservative district that gave Bush 69% of the vote and McCain 62%. For now, much of the attention has concentrated on Vaughn Ward, a veteran who has never before sought public office but who has attracted the support of figures like Sarah Palin.

Democrats ran many Iraq veterans in the 2006-2008 cycle, and it did not prove a particularly successful experiment - for instance in IL-06. It is always a risk to nominate a political novice, as one can never be sure how he’ll hold up on the trail. Yet, Ward caught a break yesterday when state House Majority Leader Ken Roberts announced that he would drop out of the race. Within 24 hours, another party contender emerged: state Rep. Raul Labrador announced his candidacy.

But none of this matters as much as the man everyone is watching: former Rep. Bill Sali, whose extreme politics and personal antics so antagonized Republican leaders and voters that he lost re-election last year. Numerous reports this week indicate that Sali is actively considering running again in 2010. He would probably need a crowded GOP field to prevail, as I have trouble seeing him reach 50% of the primary vote; his candidacy would also lead to an interesting split within conservative groups, since Palin has already sided with Ward while Sali is a Club for Growth protegee.

One recruitment failure in PA-17

Rep. Tim Holden might represent a red-leaning district but he hasn’t had much trouble winning re-election in recent cycles. This week, speculation started risingthat state Senator David Argall would give local Republicans their first reason to cheer in years, but it did not take long for Argall to deny those rumors, saying he was 99% certain that he would not challenge Holden (not that he would not risk losing his legislative seat if he did). That leaves PA-17 out of reach for the NRCC’s ambitions.

Richard Blumenthal, Josh Penry exit Governor’s races

Published
by
Taniel
on November 11, 2009
in CO-Gov and CT-Gov
. 3 Comments

Blumenthal and Simmons deny interest in succeeding Rell

Jodi Rell’s abrupt announcement that she will not seek re-election has altered Connecticut’s political landscape, but the biggest question mark has already been take care of: Attorney General Richard Blumenthal made it clear he would not jump in the now open race.

At the same time, Blumenthal delighted liberals nationwide by making it clear he is looking at running for Joe Lieberman’s Senate seat in 2012. “It would be a challenge that I would welcome, if it were the right time to do it, and I thought I could make a difference,” he said. “Stay tuned.” (Note that Lieberman has yet to make it clear whether he’ll seek the Democratic nomination, run as an independent from the start or even enter the Republican primary.)

Blumenthal would have entered the Democratic primary with an edge given his prominent stature, so his exit leaves the race wide open: A Quinnipiac poll released this morning finds Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz leading Ned Lamont 26% to 23%, with Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy at 9%. This is anyone’s race to win.

In the general election, Quinnipiac tested Rell since the survey was completed before the governor announced her retirement. There is speculation that the pollster leaked the results to the Governor’s office and that Rell took her decision after seeing that she was leading Bysiewicz by a worrisome margin: 46% to 40%. (In February, she was ahead by 21%.) But Rell posts much wider leads against Lamont (53% to 33%) and Malloy (52% to 33%).

Thus, Lamont might have his share of dedicated supporters that carry him into a primary tie with Bysiewicz but he performs 14% worse than her in the general election - a result that cannot be explained by a difference of name recognition, since the two enjoy an equivalent level of notoriety. Rather, Lamont seems plagued by the resentment of Lieberman voters. His favorability rating is mediocre overall (31% to 24%, compared to 43-11 for Bysiewicz); it is weaker both among Democrats (45-11 compared to 55-3) and independents (27-27 compared to 41-12).

Of course, we know since Rell’s retirement that the Democratic nominee won’t have to face a Republican who is as uncommonly popular among independents as the incumbent, which dramatically improves the party’s prospects of picking-up the governorship.

On the other hand, we don’t yet know how voters view Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, who has over the past 48 hours solidified his hold on the Republican nomination thanks to other potential candidates ruling out gubernatorial runs. In particular, all 5 of the GOP’s Senate candidates (all of whom have a credible shot at the nomination) denied any interest in switching races. That means that state Senator Sam Caligiuri, former Ambassador Tom Foley, businesswoman Linda McMahon, economic commentator Peter Schiff and former Rep. Rob Simmons will still battle it out for the right to face Chris Dodd.

That says a lot about the Democratic senator’s vulnerability. Sure, if one of these Republicans were to switch races, he’d have to get through Fedele but that isn’t any more difficult than winning a 5-way Senate primary. But the GOP’s prospects of defeating Dodd are higher than those of defending the governorship: In a blue state like Connecticut, a Republican has a better shot at statewide victory if he’s facing an unpopular incumbent than if he’s running for an open seat, which is why some Democrats were eager to push Corzine off of the ballot this summer.

Penry leaves Colorado’s Republican field to McInnis

Another state in which a Republican candidate might benefit from an unexpectedly easy gubernatorial primary is Colorado. We were expecting a high-stakes battle between former Rep. Scott McInnis and state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, an ambitious 33-year old who was held up by many Republicans as a rising star of the party.

Yet, Penry was failing to gain much traction. Polls showed him widely trailing McInnis and he could not get the former representative to  treat him like a serious rival. Add to that the fact that Penry was up for re-election in 2010 (so he would not have been able to fall back to his seat in the state Senate had he lost the Governor’s race) and that he is young enough that he can wait for another opportunity, and it is no shocker that he decided to drop out.

His move leaves the Republican field to McInnis and sets up what should be one of 2010’s most competitive Governor’s races: Ritter vs. McInnis.

Polls have repeatedly shown the Republican narrowly ahead, which at least suggests that he doesn’t face a major electability problem and Democrats shouldn’t look forward to facing him. Sure, they will be able to use his years in Washington against him - the electorate has decisively soured on anyone’s whose part of Congress lately - but Penry faced his own problem: it can be difficult for candidates as young as Penry to be elected to an office like governorship.

Another reason that Republicans should be relieved is that Penry had little choice but to run an anti-establishment campaign. “I think there’s been a recognition that if we continue to run the same old campaign with the same old type of message, that’s there’s going to be the same old results, which are resounding election night defeats,” he said over the summer. That kind of rhetoric is typical for any candidate who is facing a more established contender, but in the current context it could have led this primary to be covered through the lens of the GOP’s civil war. Given that Colorado holds a late primary (August), the rifts that might have then been created could have boosted Ritter’s re-election prospects.

Weekly 2010 update: Newsom, Wilson and Lawton shook up their state’s gubernatorial races

Published
by
Taniel
on November 2, 2009
in CO-Sen, recruitment and retirement
. 1 Comment

The chaos reigning in NY-23 bumped my weekly 2010 update from its Sunday slot, so here it comes on Monday morning. (The next 48 hours will obviously be devoted to New Jersey, New York, Maine and Virginia, as well as Washington and California, which are hosting important but lower-profile contests I have mostly stayed away from. Expect an election cheat sheet sometime tomorrow, followed by the usual Election Night coverage!)

Over the past 7 days, prominent politicians made news by announcing that they would not run for Governor: Gavin Newsom, Heather Wilson and Barbara Lawton were all facing tough odds, but their profile made them some of 2010’s major actors. Their decision to stay out of the cycle shakes up California, New Mexico and Wisconsin’s gubernatorial contests quite dramatically, as I detailed throughout the week.

Another state that saw a candidate - albeit a lower-profile one - drop out of the gubernatorial race is Minnesota. Now, that’s an extraordinary development in and of itself since we’ve gotten to used  to every Minnesota politician with any ambition deciding to run for Governor. With Republican state Rep. Paul Kohls’s exit, we’re down to… 15 candidates. Kohls’s decision could mark the start of a winnowing process: Straw polls now being held will decide which low-profile candidates are in a position to continue campaigning until springtime conventions; Kohls’s exit is linked to a poor performance at such a straw poll.

In Senate races, the week’s highest profile news was Christie Vilsack confirming she would not challenge Chuck Grassley in Iowa. We are now awaiting confirmation that Roxane Conlin will jump in the race. In far lower-profile news, lawyer William Bryk has announced he’ll challenge Idaho Senator Mike Crapo; that wouldn’t be news if it wasn’t for the fact that this guarantees Crapo’s re-election race will be more disputed than it was in 2004, when he ran entirely unopposed.

In Colorado, the NRSC was hoping former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton’s entrance would settle the GOP field but it’s done anything but. Not only is Ken Buck staying in, but former state Senator Tom Wiens is entering the race. He is prepared to spend half-a-million of his own money, which is certainly more than pocket-change. Since Norton is provoking some grumbling among the conservative base, Colorado could very well join Florida and New Hampshire as a site of the GOP’s growing civil war; we’ll have to see whether one candidate can position himself as Norton’s main alternative.

Another race in which the GOP field keeps growing is Arkansas. The latest to jump in is Stanley Reed, formerly the head of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and formerly a member of the University of Arkansas Board. By my count, Reed is Blanche Lincoln’s 7th Republican challenger  - and it’s not like his profile makes him any less of a credible contender than most of the others. The good news for the GOP is that there’s a two-round system here, so a weak candidate can’t just move on to the general election with 15% of the vote (which would otherwise technically be possible in 7-way race…).

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Rep. Danny Davis no longer sure sure to run for Cook County Board President

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former Arkansas Farm Bureau head Stanley Reed announced run
CO-Sen former state Senator Tom Wiens launched campaign
IA-Sen, Dem Christie Vilsack will not run
ID-Sen, Dem lawyer William Bryk announced run
SD-Sen, Dem Mark McGovern added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment: state Sen. Jason Atkinson

CA-Gov, Dem San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out
MN-Gov, GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls dropped out
NM-Gov, GOP former Rep. Heather Wilson will not run
SC-Gov, GOP Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer files paperwork
VT-Gov, Dem former state Senator Matt Dunne added
state Senator Peter Shumlin added
WI-Gov, Dem Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton dropped out

Polls show GOP boost in Ohio and Michigan, Jerry Brown’s strength in California

Published
by
Taniel
on September 28, 2009
in CA-Gov, CO-Sen, MI-Gov, NJ-Gov, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 11 Comments

OH: Rasmussen gives Portman first lead in 9 months, Kasich first lead ever

Ever since George Voinovich retired, all but the very first of Ohio’s Senate polls found both Democratic candidates with a solid lead over Republican Rob Portman - one that had extended to as much as 15%. But as is often the case, Rasmussen brings comfort to Republicans by finding a far more competitive race: Portman gets 41% against Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher’s 40%, and he is ahead of Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 40% to 38%. Both margins are well within the MoE, but they represent substantially stronger Republican performances than in other polls.

This is Rasmussen’s first poll of the race, so there is no trendline. In fact, Ohio is rarely polled - especially when compared to a state like New York, which is frustrating considering the high stakes of the Buckeye State’s contests. It’s important to note that Rasmussen contradicts a central finding of other Ohio polls. There is here little name recognition differential between the Democratic candidates and Portman; yet, other polls found Brunner and Fisher far better known. (This is not the first time Rasmussen has found some puzzling name recognition results.)

Rasmussen also tested the Governor’s race, and here again the results are very encouraging for Republicans: Plagued by a mediocre-to-bad approval rating (47% to 50%), Governor Ted Strickland is behind former Rep. John Kasich 46% to 45%. This is the first poll ever released to find Kasich posting any sort of lead, and though the margin is well within the MoE there is no question that this is not favorable territory for any incumbent. Over the summer, PPP and Quinnipiac both found Strickland leading by low single-digits, so this poll does not come out of the blue.

CA: Brown runs far stronger than Newsom

In the heels of its poll finding Barbara Boxer building a lead in the Senate race, Rasmussen released that survey’s gubernatorial numbers. The results should please everyone in the race but San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. While former Governor Jerry Brown has comfortable leads against the 3 Republican candidates (44% to 35% against Meg Whitman, 44% to 34% against Tom Campbell, 45% to 32% against Steve Poizner) Newsom trails against all three: 42% to 36% against Campbell, 41% to 36% against Whitman and 40% to 36% against Poizner.

I don’t know whether the poll’s most surprising result is the huge differential between Newsom and Brown (Research 2000 recently found Brown running stronger, but nothing resembling Rasmussen’s findings) or the fact that Campbell enjoys a bigger lead than his two Republican rivals. Campbell is not as high-profile as Whitman and Poizner, and he has gotten less media attention - at least when it comes to a national audience. But with Whitman truly to respond to the jaw-dropping revelation that she did not vote for 30 years, Poizner and Campbell definitely have an opening to hammer her; the former is already trying with this hard-hitting new ad.

NJ: Democracy Corps shows Corzine gaining

For months, Democracy Corps has found the most favorable results for Jon Corzine but never had the New Jersey Governor been so close to his competitor: Chris Christie is up 40% to 39%, with Chris Daggett at 11%. Do with the margin what you will (as long as no other pollster finds Corzine within the MoE, whether PPP, Monmouth, Quinnipiac or Franklin, I’ll have trouble believing that Corzine has tied things up), but the trendline is certainly interesting since it suggests Corzine is slowly gaining ground even within Democracy Corps’s turnout model. The evolution is small, however: Christie led by 3% three weeks ago.

MI: Democrats face uphill climb

No one doubts that Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry will have a tough fight on his hands in 2010, but two new surveys suggest Michigan’s governorship is one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities next year:

  • An Inside Michigan Politics survey has Cherry trailing Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard 41% to 38%; he does lead businessman Rick Snyder 42% to 34%. IMP only tested Cox in an unexpected 3-way race involving Cherry and Democratic state Speaker Andy Dillon; Cox leads Cherry manages 35% to 33%.

The polls test different match-ups, so it is difficult to conclude anything electability-wise. Yet, Cox can point not only to his 13% lead but also to the fact that he comes on top of both polls’ primary trial heats. He is in a virtual tie with Rep. Hoekstra in one; he has a somewhat larger lead over Hoekstra in the latter. Also: Both institutes find Rick Snyder with only 2% of the GOP primary, but he should not be underestimated: He just surprisingly won the high-profile straw poll at Mackinac Island’s Republican Leadership Conference. This could help him get more attention, raise more money.

CO: A first look at Senate primaries

In what is the first poll testing Senator Michael Bennet’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary, Republican institute Tarrance Group found the incumbent in a dangerous position against former Speaker Andrew Romanoff: Bennet leads 41% to 27%, a certain proof of vulnerability. Obviously, Bennet cannot be held at the same standard as other senators, for whom a 14% lead in a primary would be verging on the catastrophic: Since his name recognition is still relatively low, Bennet has more room to grow than someone like Arlen Specter, despite the fact that the Pennsylvania senator is posting similar numbers.

On the Republican side, former LG Jennifer Norton crushes DA Ken Buck 45% to 15%. It’s still unclear how this race will shape-up: Buck is clearly to frame it as a conservative-versus-establishment battle, so we’ll have to see how Norton seeks to position herself. In the gubernatorial primary, former Rep. Scott McInnis starts far ahead of state Senator Josh Penry; however, McInnis might not be the establishment favorite since Penry has earned a lot of good press in conservative circles as a GOP rising star. He will have to battle McInnis’s superior name recognition, however.

Senate: Qpac has Ohio swinging Dem, Rasmussen shows GOP leading in CO, NH and NV

Published
by
Taniel
on September 16, 2009
in CO-Sen, NH-Sen, NV-Sen, OH-Gov and OH-Sen
. 4 Comments

In the heels of yesterday’s Research 2000 polls that found Democrats Chris Dodd and Blanche Lincoln enjoying sunnier yet still worrisome numbers, a flurry of Senate polls gives both parties something to celebrate. Let’s get right to the numbers, as none of these contests needs any introduction:

  • In Ohio, Quinnipiac confirms what most pollsters have found: Democrats have a a clear early edge. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher leads former Rep. Rob Portman 42% to 31% while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is ahead 39% to 34%. (Against car dealer Tom Ganley, who is challenging Portman, Fisher is ahead 41% to 29% and Brunner leads 39% to 31%.)
  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen is the first pollster to find Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte with a substantial lead against Rep. Paul Hodes, 46% to 38%. The two candidates have a widely differing favorability rating: 58% to 21% for Ayotte, 46% to 38% for Hodes.
  • In Colorado, Rasmussen gives us the very first poll testing former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton - and the numbers are just as worrisome for Democrats as last week’s survey, which tested other Republican contenders. Norton leads Bennet 45% to 36%; she is also ahead of former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, 42% to 34%. Bennet’s favorability rating is a very worrisome 36-49, which leaves me skeptical as other surveys have not found the appointed senator’s name recognition anywhere near that level.
  • In what is quickly emerging as the Democrats’ biggest 2010 headache, Rasmussen finds Nevada’s Harry Reid trailing former party chairwoman Sue Lowden 50% to 40% and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian 50% to 43%. Here again, I find the favorability ratings bizarre, as I am highly skeptical that enough people already know who Lowden is to give her a 48-27 rating. The same goes for Tarkanian: His 57-30 rating makes him as well-known as incumbent senators of most states.

We are once again confronted with a polling situation that has led to many questions over the past few months: In many races, Rasmussen serves us surveys that are more favorable to Republicans than those of other pollsters - but certainly not in a way that allows us to dismiss these results. For one, this is now consistent enough that it is likely due to a difference in the likely voter screen, and there is simply not enough 2010 polling circulating to know which screen could lead to outlier. There is enough evidence out there that Republicans are more motivated that it would be foolish to blindly denounce Rasmussen’s LV model.

More importantly, Rasmussen’s results in most states are really not significantly different from other surveys - certainly not enough for us to dismiss them. I have made this point about Rasmussen’s surveys in VA and NJ, but it also applies to Nevada and Colorado: PPP has found quite troubling numbers for Bennet in CO (if Beauprez leads by 4%, it is that far-fetched for Rasmussen to show a former LG ahead by 9%?) and Mason Dixon’s NV results are very similar to those of Rasmussen - namely Reid trailing outside of the margin of error against these two potential opponents. Research 2000’s survey was a bit better, but it still had both Tarkanian and Lowden ahead.

To recap: Rasmussen’s survey is the third pollster in the past month that has Reid trailing Tarkanian and Lowden - the second that has one of the Republicans ahead by 10%. If that’s not enough for Reid to push the panic button, I don’t know what is.

The one state in which Rasmussen differs substantially from other pollsters is CA since there is no other evidence for its finding that Barbara Boxer is only ahead of Carly Fiorina by 4%. We can’t add NH to this category. Though Ayotte’s lead might be bigger than we have seen, the Granite State is rarely polled and other surveys (UNH, R2000) have also shown the Attorney General in the lead, albeit within the MoE. So Rasmussen finds the Republican in the lead - but not by margin that is not explained by differences in the LV screen. That’s something we should be able to judge for ourselves by the time 2010 rolls around.

As such, we are here in a situation in which the DSCC can point to some polling to suggest its candidates are not in as big holes as Rasmussen suggests - but there are hardly any recent surveys that find what can genuinely be qualified as good for Bennet, Reid or Hodes.

That’s why Quinnipiac’s Ohio poll is so welcome. The state might be one of the Democrats’ golden pick-up opportunities, but the GOP has always believed Portman enough to guarantee a top-tier campaign. Yet, pollster after pollster have found Fisher and Brunner with a consistent lead. Sure, some of it this comes from a name recognition differential (47% have an opinion of Fisher, 41% of Brunner, 27% of Portman) but that alone cannot explain how the Lieutenant Governor can muster a double-digit lead.

The bottom line is that Ohio still looks like the blue-leaning state it became in the 2006 midterms, during which voters gave Democratic candidates two huge victories in the open Senate and gubernatorial seats. In a generic confrontation between relatively low-profile contenders, voters are choosing the Democratic candidate.

This good news extends to the state’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is strengthening his position. Quinnipiac finds his approval rating inching upwards - 48% to 42% - and his lead against former Rep. John Kasich solidifying, 46% to 36%. Sure, Strickland is still endangered - as is any incumbent under 50%. But in the current circumstances, a double-digit lead is nothing for any Midwestern governor to be ashamed of - not to mention that it’s Strickland biggest lead in any poll since April.

Dodd once again in precarious position, Ritter once again trailing, Burr once again stuck in low 40s

Published
by
Taniel
on September 11, 2009
in CA-Sen, CO-Gov, CT-Sen and NC-Sen
. 4 Comments

I’m on record arguing that reports of coming Democratic doom are exaggerated, but it would be delusional to minimize the fact that a variety of pollsters (Mason Dixon, PPP, Rasmussen, R2000, Quinnipiac) are now showing the Majority Leader trailing a real estate developer and other incumbent Democratic Senators losing to city councilors and low-profile businessmen. Those who think that pointing this out is exhibiting a Republican bias are in denial - and yet another poll released today confirms that the DSCC will have plenty to defend in 2010.

Testing Connecticut for the first time this year, Rasmussen found the same result as Quinnipiac earlier this summer: Senator Chris Dodd trails former Rep. Rob Simmons by a substantial margin. While Quinnipiac had Simmons up 48-39, Rasmussen finds him ahead 49% to 39%, a showing made all the more worse for the Democrat by his dismal favorability rating (4o% to 59%) and by the fact that he struggles against other Republicans: He trails former Ambassador Tom Foley 43% to 40% while he leads state Senator Sam Caliguri 43% to 40% and the libertarian Peter Schiff 42% to 40%.

The poll’s most interesting finding is the confirmation that Dodd’s troubles have everything to do with his personal image. Barack Obama’s approval rating stands at a strong 59% to 39% and his 3 latter Republican opponents are competitive despite posting mediocre-to-bad favorability ratings of their own. As such, Dodd’s fall is not due to a deterioration in the Democratic brand but rather to months of controversy that have sapped voters’ confidence in Dodd’s ethics.

This is not comforting to the Senator, as it could be harder for him to climb back in contention if what he has to improve is his reputation rather than the national environment. But it could prove comforting to national Democrats, as it suggests Dodd’s misfortune should not be generalized as a sign that other veteran Senators could be vulnerable.

Democrats looking up in CA, in precarious position in CO

Indeed, another Democratic Senator has some reason to celebrate tonight: A new PPIC poll of California adds to the surveys (Field Poll, Research 2000) that found Barbara Boxer has little to worry about next year. While PPIC did not test any head-to-head match-up with Carly Fiorina, it found Boxer posting a strong approval rating - 53% to 32%. That’s roughly equal to the approval rating of her colleague Diane Feinstein (54-32), who no one would think of calling vulnerable. Given that Republicans often make a lot of empty noise about the Golden State, this Senate race is for now not one the DSCC should lose much sleep over.

Furthermore, the poll suggests that the Democratic brand as a whole remains popular in the country’s biggest state: Barack Obama enjoys a high rating (63% to 32%) and Nancy Pelosi’s numbers are positive as well (49-40). On the other hand, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is flirting with Bush-territory, with a 30% to 61% rating. With California set to host a large number of competitive House races (Democrats are at least targeting CA-03, CA-45, CA-48), these ratings could have a decisive impact on the 2010 landscape.

Yet, just as Democrats look to be in a strong overall position in California, it looks like both of their major Colorado incumbents are facing troublesome. To this afternoon’s poll finding Michael Bennet in trouble in the Senate race, Rasmussen added a gubernatorial poll as well. It has Governor Bill Ritter trailing former Rep. Scott McInnis 44% to 39%; he manages a 41% to 40% lead against the far lesser-known Josh Penry, the state Senate’s Minority Leader. It is somewhat surprising that Ritter does not enjoy better head-to-head numbers given that his approval rating is not particularly worrisome (49-49), nor is his favorability rating even negative (47-42).

Combined with the fact that McInnis is no unknown but a popular former congressman, those numbers suggest Ritter is not in as worrisome a situation as other governors (say Corzine) or even as Bennet. But there is no question that for any incumbent to be hovering around the 40% mark - let alone trailing any opponent by 5% - is a sign of great vulnerability. That’s all the more so the case given that Rasmussen’s numbers are confirmed by the Democratic firm PPP, which found Ritter tying Penry and trailing McInnis by 8% back in August.

As always, Burr fails to break out of low 40s

The day’s final statewide poll is a PPP survey of North Carolina. The poll finds North Carolina Richard Burr’s approval rating at 38-32. His closest competitor is not SoS Elaine Marshall, who just announced a race, but Rep. Bob Etheridge, who trails 41% to 34%. Burr leads Marshall and former LG Dennis Wicker 42% to 31%. He is up 42% to 30% against former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, 43% to 29% against Chaper Hill Mayor Kevin Foy and 43% to 27% against attorney Kenneth Lewis. The relatively small difference between the performances of Marshall/Wicker and that of the lesser-known Cunningham/Lewis suggest these numbers are more a reflection on voters’ perception of Burr than of the Democrats’ individual strength.

The poll leaves us with the same bottom line we have been repeating for months: Burr’s surprisingly low name recognition and his repeated failure to break out of the low 40s tag him as a clearly vulnerable incumbent - especially now that Democrats have gotten a highly credible candidate to commit to the race (as I wrote two days ago, Marshall’s entrance is great news for Democrats not because she is already in a strong position poll-wise but because she occupies a prominent enough position that her candidacy cannot but attract the DSCC and liberal groups’ attention.) However, he manages to post substantial leads; that’s more than we can say of Democratic senators who on paper are in a similar position.

Michael Bennet is in trouble

Published
by
Taniel
on September 11, 2009
in CO-Sen and OH-Pres
. 5 Comments

A credible primary challenge and a general election poll showing a low-profile opponent holding a lead - that’s a lot for a senator to go through in a single day. And if that senator is a political novice who has never before faced voters and has to run for a full term within 2 years of being appointed to his seat, this amounts to an electoral disaster. Yet, that’s what awaits Michael Bennet, the former superintendent of Denver public schools who Governor Bill Ritter unexpectedly chose as Ken Salazar’s replacement.

Romanoff’s primary challenge

Yesterday, former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff took the first step in challenging Bennet in the Democratic primary, announcing that he was forming an exploratory committee. While this had been rumored all year, we can hardly be faulted for not taking the threat entirely seriously: Based on what occurred in New York over the past few months, it’s obvious that it takes a lot for someone to pull the trigger on taking on an incumbent Democratic Senator in his party’s primary.

Romanoff served in the state House from 2000 to 2008, when he was forced out by term limits. He became the state’s first Democratic Speaker in decades when the party took control of the state House in 2004. That year, many thought Romanoff would run for Governor but he ended up passing on the race. His exit from the legislature then left him no obvious path to continue his political career as Rep. Mark Udall was the establishment’s clear choice to run in the 2008 open Senate seat.

Taking on Bennet should prove an easier path than defeating Udall would have been: The former is mostly unknown among state voters, his campaign skills remain a mystery since he has never before ran in an election. Having spent 4 years as Speaker, Romanoff has the credibility to be taken seriously, the political network to raise money and deploy surrogates. He is thus undoubtedly in a position to threaten Bennet’s hold on the Democratic nomination.

He could also capitalize on unions’ discontent towards Bennet, who was one of the most noncommittal senators on EFCA last spring and who distanced himself from the public option. (He spoke about it more warmly last week, when reports first emerged that Romanoff was on the verge of entering the race.) Back when Ritter announced his choice, there was also talk that Democratic leaders from Western and rural counties were unhappy with his pick, so we shall see whether Romanoff can benefit from any remains of that.

And yet, it’s difficult to predict how this primary will unfold. While Bennet has positioned himself as a centrist (besides EFCA and the public option, let’s cite his repeated votes in favor of the GOP’s gun rights amendments, including July’s Thune amendment), Romanoff himself does not have a staunchly progressive reputation. He was reputed to be more liberal than some of Ritter’s other Senate choices, but his record, profile and policy positions do not make it obvious that Romanoff will try to attack Bennet from the left.

As such, unlike what we are seeing in Pennsylvania and what almost occurred in New York, this primary does not look to be motivated by ideological factors and we will have to see whether labor - let alone other liberal groups - will get involved in the race. Interestingly, one of the defining issues of Romanoff’s legislative tenure looks to be his quest to reform the state’s education funding; education has of course been the focus of Bennet’s political career, so could this be a rare federal race in which education is debated?

One final note: Colorado holds an August primary, which is relatively late and could potentially hurt the Democratic nominee heading into the general election. However, Republicans are set to go through a competitive primary of their own, so both parties will be in the same boat; furthermore, the Bennet-Romanoff showdown could allow Democrats to stay in the news at a time the GOP might have been hoping to dominate news coverage thanks to its own nomination contest, so this could blunt whatever primary bounce Republicans might otherwise receive.

Trouble in November

If Bennet does survive the primary, he can’t look forward to an easy general election. A new Rasmussen survey paints quite a worrisome picture for the incumbent Senator: Weighed down by a weak favorability rating, he leads District Attorney Ken Buck 43% to 37% and he trails Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier 40% to 39%. Do I even need to tell you how dismal a sign it is for an incumbent Senator to poll below 40% - let alone to fall behind as little-known an opponent as Frazier?

(I might understand why Rasmussen did not test a match-up between Bennet and Romanoff: polling a Democratic-only race would require a bigger sample, thus more money. But I find it incomprehensible they did not include former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, who formed a campaign committee this week. I assume Norton would have enjoyed a bigger lead against Bennet, but we have never seen her tested in any public poll so we can only rely on speculation and some data would be nice.)

Democrats should not dismiss this poll as other surveys have found similar results. The most recent Colorado poll was published by PPP last month; it found Bennet trailing Bob Beauprez (who has since decided not to run) and narrowly leading Buck and Frazier, with less than 40% against both. There is no denying that Colorado is one of the NRSC’s top 2010 opportunities.

Jane Norton enters Colorado’s Senate race

Published
by
Taniel
on September 8, 2009
in CO-Sen
. 14 Comments

The NRSC has spent months looking for a challenger to Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, and they are now left hoping it was not a mistake for them to privilege former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton over former Rep. Bob Beauprez. When Beauprez unexpectedly announced he would not run two weeks ago, it was clear that his decision had a lot to do with Norton’s name surfacing - and it did not take long for her to capitalize on this opening.

Today, Norton filed the necessary paperwork to create an exploratory committee. While that is in not a candidacy statement, it is a major step in that direction and the fact that it was preceded by a high-profile Republican’s withdrawal leaves little doubt that Norton has already signaled to the GOP establishment that she’ll go all the way.

So there we are: In both Colorado and Arkansas, two states in which the GOP was having trouble recruiting any credible candidate at all, the NRSC has landed solid challengers. (We might soon offer a similar analysis about Nevada.) Sure, Norton isn’t the strongest contender Republicans could field; neither is Gilbert Baker in Arkansas. But compared to the inexperienced, gaffe-prone or low-profile contenders the GOP was until now relying on, they should be able to at least put the incumbent Democrats in delicate positions and take advantage of any favorable breeze Republicans might enjoy.

That said, Norton brings a number of question marks of her own. For one, she has never ran for office on her own name as the only office she has occupied is that of Lieutenant Governor, a post she won in 2002 on a ticket with Bill Owens, who was by then already the incumbent. So how will she hold up once the spotlight is on her? Can she avoid the types of mistakes that have plagued other rookie campaigners this year?  What parts of her record have yet to be explored because she never faced a competitive race herself?

Relatedly, some of her fame comes from her years heading the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment; but how much broader name recognition does that give her? As I do not believe any survey already taken of the race have included Norton, we’ll have to wait for the next poll to get a clearer idea as to her notoriety - and it’s not like Colorado tends to be the most polled of states.

Finally, Norton should expect to face a tough Republican primary. As we are seeing in New Hampshire, Florida and arguably Missouri, conservative activists are in no mood to let the NRSC impose them candidates - and a new front in that battle could open up in Colorado. Just as Kelly Ayotte’s job as AG has not clearly delineated her politics, Norton looks to be less defined ideologically than other Colorado Republicans.

Weld County DA Ken Buck has already made it clear he will not clear the field for Norton. “While other candidates may still jump in the Senate race, one thing is clear — our party’s nominee will be chosen by Colorado’s grassroots Republicans, not by political operatives in Washington D.C,” he declared in a statement last week. We’ll keep an eye on Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and businessman Clive Tidwell, both of whom are already running.

After all, the Republican nomination is well worth fighting over. As soon as we learned Governor Ritter had appointed the politically inexperienced Michael Bennet as the new Senator, it was clear the DSCC would not have an easy time defending the seat and recent polls have made it clear that Democrats should not simply expect Bennet’s numbers to improve as he introduces himself to voters; not only has that not been happening, but Norton, Buck and Frazier will have just as much time to improve their name recognition.

Update: The comment section made me realize what issue could be a major problem in Norton’s relationship with conservatives - Referendum C, which fired up Colorado politics in 2005 and pitted Owens’s Administration against much of his base.

Senate: A drop-out, a quasi-drop out and a confusing about-face

Published
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Taniel
on September 1, 2009
in CO-Sen, LA-Sen and SC-Sen
. 2 Comments

Louisiana: Honore supposedly backs down from Vitter challenge

Who even knew there were this many Louisiana Republicans who were high-profile enough to be credible primary challengers to a sitting Senator? At this point, we have more GOPers than Democrats who have thought about jumping in this race, which really tells you all you need to know about the state’s political situation. Over the past year, Tony Perkins, former Rep. John Cooksey and former Senate candidate Suzanne Haik Terrell all looked like they would enter the race - but all backed down within days of their names surfacing. (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is still considering it.)

It has now happened again: Reports last week indicated that retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honore, who led the Army’s efforts in the aftermath of Katrina, was leaning towards challenging Vitter in the Republican primary. Honore moved to quell speculation today, insisting that this buzz is “all about speculation and rumors,” that “no one’s talking to me about running for Senate” and that he doesn’t even have a partisan affiliation. “As of this time, I’m not running for any political office,” he said.

Yet, Honore could have issued an infinitely more emphatic denial had he wanted to. His use of the qualifier “as of this time” is typical political parlance used to evade offering a definite answer (see Cuomo, Mario) and it ensures that Honore’s statement is perfectly meaningless: Yes, of course he is not running for anything as of this time. The question is if he will do so in a few months, namely when he finalizes his return to Louisiana. And the terms rumor and speculation don’t tell us much either, since neither rumors nor speculation are necessarily wrong.

What happens in the Republican primary matters a great deal for Democrats as well: Much of Vitter’s vulnerability comes from the D.C. Madam scandal he was involved in, but poll numbers suggest he has managed to get voters to put that behind him. If Vitter faces a primary, the 2007 events are sure to be revisited at great length; by the time Vitter gets around to facing Melancon, voters would have the D.C. Madam fresh on their mind - making the Democrats’ task that much easier. Otherwise,it’s tough to see Vitter enter the compressed general election period vulnerable enough for Melancon to have a good shot.

South Carolina: Will anyone take on DeMint?

Whatever small chance Democrats had of unseating South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint looks to be evaporating. The ultraconservative Republican is helped not only by his state’s right-wing bent but also by the dismally thin Democratic bench. With the few Democrats who can hope to win statewide eying the open Governor’s race and Inez Tenenbaum’s move to Washington, all eyes had turned to state Senator Brad Hutto as the DSCC’s only viable hope.

As one of 46 state Senators, Hutto obviously lacked the profile to make a formidable challenger. But having served since 1996, he has had the time to build enough political connections that the prospect of his candidacy was taken seriously by national Democrats: Hutto had already met with DSCC officials, which is how his name surfaced as a potential contender in the first place. (In third tier races like this one, it’s difficult to foresee any movement unless national parties are willing to get minimally involved, give their blessing to a contender to make him credible in the eyes of donors and possibly even consider some ad buys to test the incumbent’s vulnerability.)

With Mark Sanford’s scandal weighing down state Republicans, 2010 might have provided an opening for state Democrats. But it does not look like DeMint has much to worry about.

Colorado: What just happened?

Last week, The Denver Post reported that Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck was going to announce his exit from the Colorado Senate race yesterday… only to change his mind in the morning and issue a statement reasserting his candidacy and warning national Republicans not to interfere with state politics. “While other candidates may still jump in the Senate race, one thing is clear — our party’s nominee will be chosen by Colorado’s grassroots Republicans, not by political operatives in Washington D.C,” said his statement.

Translation: Former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, whose name suddenly surfaced two weeks ago, should not count on having an easy ride through the Republican nomination. If reports of Buck’s exit suggested that Norton was indeed on the verge of entering the race and that the GOP establishment was simply trying to clear up the field for her (remember that Bob Beauprez unexpectedly said he would not run last week), Buck’s defiant statement is just as clear an indication that we should expect Norton to enter the race. And if she does, it looks like we might have to add Colorado to the growing list of states in which local conservatives are in an open feud with the NRSC.

(Of course, the Colorado landscape is further complicated by the prospect of Andrew Romanoff challenging Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary. But since that buzz is also based on a Denver Post report, let’s wait for Romanoff to make a more public move before analyzing that match-up.)

GOP shuffle in Colorado: Beauprez unexpectedly exits Senate race

Published
by
Taniel
on August 25, 2009
in CO-Sen
. 1 Comment

When a prominent politician decides to forgo a Senate run, it can be a crushing blow to his party (see Tom Ridge), a huge relief (see Jim Bunning) or something in between whose exact significance is hard to decipher. Former Rep. Bob Beauprez’s unexpected decision not to challenge Colorado Senator Michael Bennet falls in the latter category.

Beauprez was the GOP’s highest-profile candidate left since Mark Hillman, Scott McInnis and John Suthers ruled out campaigns of their own; add to that Bill Owens and John Elway’s apparent disinterest and much of Colorado Republicans’ bench is accounted for.

As such, the GOP spent most of the spring and summer thinking of Beauprez as its probable nominee. There was an obvious reason to worry about that, namely that Beauprez was crushed by 17% in the open 2006 Governor’s race. But Beauprez had started to look like a desirable get nonetheless.

One, Beauprez would have started with a high-enough profile to immediately get in the meat of things against a little-known Senator who has never faced voters. Second, his entry would have been enough to make the press and donors take the race seriously - something that cannot be said of the other Republicans already in the race. Third, Beauprez has already led Bennet in two surveys released by PPP - one of them last week. Any challenger who can lead an incumbent in public polls is worthy of his party’s attention.

Thus, the NRSC has some reason to be disappointed by Beauprez’s exit while Bennet can be relieved he does not have to worry about the one candidate who is already leading him in polls.

And yet, it’s hard to see Republicans lamenting the exit of a man who suffered such a crushing statewide defeat just 3 years ago; even in a cycle as one-sided as 2006, a 17% margin is as clear an indictment of his statewide electability as anything we could imagine. Too many questions marks surrounded the former representative for the NRSC to mourn him as that formidable a contender.

This is even more so the case because a new Republican emerged as a potential candidate last week: Jane Norton, Bill Owens’s Lieutenant Governor from 2002 and 2006, is now considering the race. Her camp recently said she will make her decision known within 30 days, and reports indicated that Beauprez was likely to defer to her decision. So should we take Beauprez’s exit as a sign that Norton has decided that she will run? In that case, his decision is not only nothing for the GOP to mourn but also a harbinger of a potentially stronger candidate to come.

It’s not that Norton does not come with question marks of her own since she has never ran for office on her own name, but her political experience, ties to  Owens and her years heading the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment have made her far more accustomed to the big political stage than any of the GOP’s other options: Weld County DA Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and businessman Clive Tidwell.

Both Buck and Frazier have attracted buzz and Republicans insist they have what it takes to defeat Bennet, but it’s hard not to notice that neither has ran anything comparable to a Senate race, it remains to be seen how they would hold up on the trail and they would give the GOP far less to work with than Nortnon and Beauprez would.

In short: Either Beauprez’s exit paves the way for Norton’s candidacy, in which case the GOP has nothing to complain about since it got as strong a candidate and avoided a primary.

Or Norton follows Beauprez out the door, in which case today’s development contributed to ensuring the NRSC fails to field a top-tier challenger and is left hoping that one of the lesser-known contenders is worthy of his buzz.

Poll watch: Republicans Grayson, McCollum and McInnis grab leads

Published
by
Taniel
on August 20, 2009
in CO-Gov, FL-Gov and KY-Sen
. 6 Comments

Grayson holds slight edge in first post-Bunning poll

My surprise over Rand Paul’s strong showing led me to ignore the rest of that survey, though all of it was newsworthy: Kentucky remains a dramatically underpolled state and SUSA’s poll is one of the first released this entire year. This dearth of information is quite a shame since Kentucky’s race is more important than North Carolina or Florida’s often-polled contests since and Democrats have a stronger takeover chance here - or so we thought before Jim Bunning announced his retirement.

What is the situation now that the Senate race is open? The poll confirms what we had guessed: Bunning’s retirement improved the GOP’s prospects. Had he ran for re-election, Democrats would have enjoyed a slight edge because of his unpopularity; but as things stand now, the race is essentially a contest between credible statewide officials from both parties - and in such a generic partisan battle, Republicans are bound to have a slight advantage in what is a red-leaning state.

The poll finds Secretary of State Grayson leading Lieutenant Governor Dan Mongiardo 46% to 40%; against Attorney General Jack Conway, the margin is 44% to 37%.

Unfortunately, SUSA did not test favorability ratings so we cannot know whether any of Grayson’s lead comes from an advantage in name recognition. Comparatively low-profile Rand Paul’s competitiveness does suggest that the state’s electorate is in a GOP-friendly mood, however: If he were to win the GOP nomination, he would start trailing but not by much: Conway is ahead 43% to 38% and Mongiardo 43% to 41%.

There isn’t a meaningful electability difference between the two Democrats; to the extent that there are more Democrats who are undecided in match-ups involving Conway, the AG might have a bit more room to grow but that is negligeable. We’ll see whether a gap will open up once voters see both men in action over the next few months. And there isn’t much space between the two in the Democratic primary either: SUSA shows Mongiardo ahead 39% to 31% thanks to his lead in rural areas; Conway leads big in the Louisville region.

McCollum takes narrow edge in Quinnipiac survey

Ever since Florida’s gubernatorial race became competitive in May, Quinnipiac had been the only pollster to find any sort of lead for Democratic candidate Alex Sink - a 4% lead in an early June poll. Yet, Quinnipiac’s latest survey has them joining other pollsters in finding that Republican Bill McCollum enjoys a slight advantage: 38% to 34%, with a high 25% of voters undecided. The difference between the two polls comes from a 20% rightward shift among independent - we shall maybe know in the future whether that’s statistical noise or whether it’s due to a change in the national environment.

The good news for Sink is that she has a lot of room to grow since she has only a fraction of McCollum’s name recognition: While 55% of respondents have an opinion of McCollum, only 32% have one of Sink. That kind of differential is bound to impact general election trial heats, and it’s a testament to Florida’s competitiveness that Sink is already within 4% before introducing herself to voters.

On the other hand, McCollum is looking far more popular than is typical for a two-time failed Senate candidate: His favorability rating is a very solid 42-13 while 53% of respondents approve his job as Attorney General. So it’s not like voters are just waiting to be introduced to a strong alternative to suddenly desert McCollum, who looks popular among respondents who are now calling themselves independent.

Ritter trails McInnis in Colorado

It’s been a few months that Bill Ritter has gone from seemingly safe to highly endangered incumbents, and the curse that is plaguing governors nationwide is showing no sign that it will leave its approval ratings intact. But is that awareness enough to prepare us for ugly numbers like those of PPP’s latest poll?

PPP, which can hardly be accused of trying to boost Republicans, had already found Ritter in trouble in an April poll but its latest release finds the governor with his lowest approval rating of the cycle: This 40% to 45% is a stark drop from the 49% to 36% Ritter posted in PPP’s December survey.

The head-to-head match-ups are no prettier: Ritter trails former Rep. Scott McInnis 46% to 38%. He also fails to lead state Senator John Penry; Republicans might say isa rising star, but he still has a low enough profile that his tying Ritter at 40% is a very worrisome sign. For an incumbent to be under 50% is a clear sign of vulnerability, but to struggle to break the 40% mark against a little-known opponent is enough to put you on the list of most endangered governors.

Interestingly, these numbers are similar to the Senate results PPP released a few days ago: Ritter and Senator Michael Bennet both havor in the high 30s-low 40s range with their Republican opponents osclliating between a slight deficit and a lead depending on their notoriety. That suggests that these incumbents’ weak numbers have as much to do with the national environment as with anything particular pertaining to their tenures. What’s unfortunate for Democrats is that neither of their incumbents will be able to pull the other upward.

Still more: McCollum leads Sink, Beauprez tops Bennett - but at least Obama crushes Palin

Published
by
Taniel
on August 18, 2009
in 2012-Poll, CO-Sen and FL-Gov
. 0 Comments

Against 3 Republicans, Bennet is stuck under 40%

Democrats are trailing in yet another Senate poll - and this time the survey was not released by Rasmussen. PPP’s latest look at Michael Bennet’s prospect finds the Colorado Senator narrowly trailing former Rep. Bob Beauprez 42% to 39%. Bennet posts small leads against lesser-known rivals: 39% to 35% against DA Ken Buck and 38% to 33% against councilman Ryan Frazier.

Needless to say, for an incumbent to be under the 40% mark - let alone to trail - is highly worrisome. Yes, Bennet is no ordinary incumbent: He was appointed to the seat in December, has never faced voters and is thus not very well known in Colorado - a situation that has many insisting that he is bound to increase his support as voters get more familiar with him and come to think of him as their Senator. Yet, Bennet’s numbers have been declining with time rather than improving: In April, PPP found Beauprez holding a 1% lead. Furthermore, Bennet’s approval rating has gone from 34-41 to 31-38.

In many ways, Bennet’s situation is reminiscent of Burr’s, which PPP tested last week: Both are not very well defined among the electorate and that makes them both highly vulnerable. Indeed, their low name recognition means they have room to grow - but it also means that the opposition’s attacks will be more effective than is typically the case against more entrenched incumbents. It also makes Bennet’s fate that much more tied in to the national environment - and we won’t really know where the winds are blowing for many more months.

Yet, neither has yet drawn top-tier opposition. Even if Beauprez does jump in the race, he’ll have to show he can overcome the stain of his 17% statewide loss in the 2006 Governor’s race; with Frazier and Buck both little-known, the GOP is still looking for another candidate. And a new name has just popped up: former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is reportedly considering the race. Bill Owens’s running mate from 2002 to 2006, Norton has also presided over the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. While she might be a candidate worth recruiting, there is no reason for Bennet to start trembling: Norton has never ran for office on her own name and her time in the public spotlight was relatively short.

McCollum leads Sink, but it’s a Chamber poll

The poll was taken by a Republican pollster for Florida’s Chamber of Commerce; it contains no crosstabs or internal data. But since it tested a major 2010 race about which we have seen no data for months, I will post a few lines about it here: In the state’s Governor’s race, the survey finds Republican Bill McCollum leading Alex Sink 43% to 34%.

This is McCollum’s largest lead yet, but his advantage should not be overstated: At 43%, his level of support is roughly equal to that of other recent polls - whether Mason Dixon or Rasmussen. Furthermore, the two surveys that have tested this race with the largest sample sizes have found quite different results: Strategic Vision had McCollum up 2% while Quinnipiac had Sink leading by 4%. Add to that the fact that this polls should be taken with a grain of salt, and there is no reason for Democrats to be alarmed about this race.

At the moment, the biggest worry Florida Democrats should be thinking about has little to do with McCollum or with Sink - after all, the latter isn’t yet well-known enough for these early polls to reflect that accurate a picture. Rather, it’s Charlie Crist’s presence at the top of the ballot that could be a major headache for Democratic prospects in the Governor’s race: Crist’s approval rating in this poll is 67%, and while that is on the high-end of what surveys have found, his Senate coattails could help boost McCollum’s gubernatorial numbers.

Palin has nowhere to go in 2012 general election

Unsurprisingly, Marist’s latest poll of the 2012 race finds a muddied Republican field: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabe are all within 2% of each other, from 21% to 19%. The GOP nomination will be anyone’s game, there will be many more competitors than these and there’s little point in analyzing the dynamics of this primary before we’re done with the 2010 midterms.

But Marist’s decision to test Obama against Sarah Palin leads to quite an important finding - one that will not surprise most of you but that is still significant to see in poll-form: The former Alaska Governor might have a shot at the Republican nomination, but she has nowhere to go in the general election. Obama crushes her 56% to 33%, winning 92% of the Democratic vote, 20% of the Republican vote and 62% of the Hispanic vote; he leads by 15% among independents and 9% in the South.

In a country that has yielded single-digit margins in every election since 1984, that’s as big a lead as you will see in a presidential trial heat.

The bottom line is that post-resignation Palin attracts nobody but the most hardcore Republican base - those voters who would never consider doing anything else than voting for the GOP nominee. And it’s going to be extremely difficult for Palin to broaden her appeal: While most presidential candidates have an opportunity to introduce themselves to the public at large, voters have a fixed and very defined view of Palin - more so than for any other national figure save Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And that leaves Palin with nowhere to go beyond the conservative base.