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Category Archive for ‘CO-Sen’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'CO-Sen' Category


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Primary watch: Simcox drops out in Arizona, Michigan field takes shape, Colorado heats up

Arizona: Simcox drops out, endorses Hayworth

Of the many factors that make John McCain the favorite to survive Arizona’s Senate primary, one has been conservatives’ division between former Rep. J. D. Hayworth and Chris Simcox, head of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps. While Simcox failed to pick-up much traction, whatever support he received was bound to come from voters who could be receptive to Hayworth, since McCain’s two challengers are both best-known for their staunch opposition to immigration. As such, Hayworth’s path to victory cleared up this week when Simcox dropped out of the race and endorsed him. Not only does this development open up a new group of voters to Hayworth, but it also makes the primary a straightforward opposition between McCain and Hayworth, which could help the latter highlight the battle’s ideological significance and as such gain traction among conservative voters.

It is essential for Hayworth to make the primary’s ideological stakes as high as possible since he cannot count on much support among the conservative movement’s elected establishment: McCain’s stature ensures that many of the hard-right’s leaders not defy him. We’ve long known Sarah Palin wil campaign for McCain, and during the past week two Republicans who have been endorsing conservatives left and right announced they would sit Arizona out: South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Texas Rep. Dick Armey, a major player in NY-23’s special election.

But McCain’s national profile ensures that the Arizona primary gets covered at length by the local and national press, which should ensure Hayworth a lot of free media and should also help him be financially competitive. Also, the GOP establishment will stay by McCain’s side in a way they have not by Crist’s, but conservative media outlets will help Hayworth, as a new Politico story makes clear: commentators like Glenn Beck and Michael Savage want McCain gone. Come early August, I would not be surprised if Arizona’s primary grabs more attention than Florida’s in some quarters.

Michigan: A clearer picture of the Democratic primary

Six weeks after John Cherry’s unexpected withdrawal, the situation in Michigan’s gubernatorial race has gotten more straightforward as two Democrats took themselves out of the running: pizza heiress and UM regent Denise Ilitch, whom the party was courting because of her fortune, and former Treasurer Bob Bowman, who pulled the plug just a few days after hinting that he would run. That leaves Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state Rep. Alma Wheeler, who have already announced, and state Speaker Andy Dillon, who has formed an exploratory committee and who is believed by many to be a sure candidate. (Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee is also mentioned as a possible candidate, though he doesn’t appear to have taken steps towards a possible candidacy.)

This could make for a fiery primary with clear fault lines between the centrist Dillon and the populist Bernero. Dillon has a very rough relationship with unions, which are obviously a powerful force in Michigan primaries. Bernero, who is considered a labor ally, will campaign as an outsider ready to take on anyone associated with the state government or the federal government, which is arguably a message Democratic candidates need to be credible making this year. “The clueless leadership at the State Capitol doesn’t get it,” he said upon launching his campaign last week. “The so-called leaders in the Washington bubble don’t get it either. And the Wall Street wizards who helped put us here definitely don’t get it.” That Bernero did serve in the sate legislature this decade could in this context be turned against him.

Bernero’s main problem should be a lack of name recognition (Lansing is a small city relatively to Michigan’s size, with about 140,000 inhabitants out of the state’s 10 million), which could be tough to overcome given his late entry in the race if party leaders and donors rally behind Dillon; that said, the AFL-CIO and the UAW could do a lot to help him in this regard. Yet, while most of the recent attention has been turned to Bernero, Alma Wheeler could also stake a claim to being the lead alternative to Dillon; a state legislator with a liberal profile, she could win over union support (she was an ally of David Bonior, who’s close to labor) but she could also hope to position herself as an outsider from the state’s Democratic leadership since she has been a longtime critic of Governor Jennifer Granholm.

Colorado: Romanoff rolls out endorsements

Challengers to U.S. Senators rarely win low-profile primaries, as voters are usually than not reluctant to oust incumbents of their own parties. That made Andrew Romanoff’s low-key approach to challenging Michael Bennet somewhat confusing, but the former Speaker is finally generating more press and showing the signs that he’s putting together the type of campaign he’ll need. First, he was endorsed by a long slate of Democratic slate legislators, including House Majority Leader Paul Weissmann and Senate Majority Leader John Morse and two thirds of the state House’s Democratic delegation.

Second, Romanoff received the endorsement of the Teamsters and of the UFCW, two large unions who will help Romanoff in what could be a low-profile opponent. Their move is undoubtedly partly due to Bennet’s refusal to take a stand on EFCA; not only was he one of 11 wavering Democrats, but he also bashed the measure.

Yet, the recent days have reminded us of why incumbents are often favored: they can put themselves in the news far more easily. As such, Barack Obama will visit Denver on Bennet’s behalf tomorrow, and however much Romanoff criticizes as Washington’s involvement in Colorado politics, the president remains very popular among Democrats. Second, Bennet took the lead in writing a letter to Harry Reid yesterday asking him to revive the public option through the use of reconciliation; the letter, which has now been joined by 7 senators, has been largely covered by the local press, is the sort of story that could make the state’s Democratic voters warm to Bennet.


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Senate GOP leads in AR, NH, NV, CO, KY, IL but Reid enjoys uptick & Ayotte struggles in primary

The week’s most dramatic polls no doubt are those from Arkansas since they suggest that Blanche Lincoln’s fate is all but sealed. Rasmussen finds the senator’s favorability rating at a dismal 36-59; PPP shows her approval rating at an even more catastrophic 27-62. Her numbers against Republicans are a disaster. PPP has her down 56% to 33% against Rep. John Boozman and 50% to 35% against Gilbert Baker; Rasmussen shows her trailing by similar margins - 54% to 35% against Boozman, 52-33 against Baker, 50-34 against Curtis Coleman, 51-35 against Kim Hendren. Those are not numbers an incumbent recovers from.

The problem for Democrats is that they can hardly pull a Dodd or a Torricelli: PPP tested a variety of alternatives to Lincoln and found the GOP generally in control. The party’s only savior could be popular Governor Mike Beebe - and even then he is down 1% against Boozman and he leads Baker by an underwhelming 46% to 38%. Rep. Mike Ross trails Boozman 48-37 but ties Baker at 39%; Wesley Clark is down 51-36 and 45-39, respectively and Halter 53-30 and 45-34.

While none of these results are encouraging for Democrats, all four of her potential replacements perform better than the senator. Since Halter, Ross and Clark’s name recognition is lower and favorability ratings is incomparably stronger than Lincoln, they would also have more hope of improving their results while it is hard to envision the incumbent doing so. In short, the GOP is more likely than not to pick-up this seat but it does not mean Democrats should not at least try a switcheroo.

Senate: GOP also leads in NH, NV, CO, KY and IL…

New Hampshire: The first public poll of the GOP’s Senate primary finds that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has her work cut out for her: Research 2000 has her only leading Ovide Lamontagne 36% to 27%, with William Binnie at 4%. If conservatives decide they can add New Hampshire to an already long list of summer primaries they want to prioritize, Lamontagne could very well pull the upset and thus give Democrats a boost in the general election. While Rep. Paul Hodes trails Ayotte 46% to 39%, leads Lamontagne 46% to 36% - a 17% differential. The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that Ayotte remains the front-runner and her high favorability ratings and early poll lead presage good things for the NRSC.

Nevada: Harry Reid arguably just received the best poll he has seen in months - and it came from Rasmussen! While his numbers remain very rough, they are for once not insurmountable: His favorability rating stands at 44/55 and he trails all of his competitors “only” by single-digits: 45-39 against Lowden, 47-39 against Tarkanian and 44-40 against Angle. Of course, an incumbent has nothing to boast about when stuck around 40%, but last month Reid trailed by double-digits in all match-ups. We’ll have to see whether this trendline is an outlier or whether it is due to Reid’s well-financed attempts to improve his image. The poll’s most interesting part is the match-up between Reid and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been mulling the race ever since he was cleared of an indictement: Krolicki has the smallest lead among these four Republicans, 44% to 41%.

Colorado: No miracle for Michael Bennet in Rasmussen’s new poll: the unelected senator leads trails Republican front-runner Jane Norton by a massive 51% to 37%. That said, Bennet’s favorability rating remains (barely) positive and he should have an easier time to improve his numbers than other incumbents since he is less well-known and thus has more room to grow. And yet, his primary challenger Andrew Romanoff performs far better against Norton since he only trails 45% to 38% - a sign Democrats would be better off dumping the incumbent to start fresh? Both Democrats trail by more narrowly against Republicans Tom Wiens and Ken Buck.

Kentucky: Rasmussen’s monthly Kentucky poll confirms not only that the GOP has gained edge in this open seat (a red state’s electorate naturally gravitates rightward in this environment), but also that Rand Paul would be a far more formidable candidate than had been expected: He leads LG Mongiardo 48% to 37% and AG Conway 47% to 39%. Tray Grayson’s leads are more uneven, as his 49-35 rout over Mongiardo contrasts with his 44-40 lead over Conway. Democrats look like they’d be better off with Conway, whose favorability rating stands at 47-32, than with Mongiardo, whose favorability rating is a mediocre 45-43.

Illinois: Conducted by Rasmussen, The first public poll to test the Illinois Senate race since voters chose their nominees finds Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 40%, a result that contradicts PPP’s recent finding that the Democrat has an 8% lead; note that PPP’s poll was conducted just before Giannoulias was hit by new questions over his family bank, so that might account for some of the difference. In any case, Illinois is one state the DSCC simply cannot afford to lose so Kirk’s early lead is an ugly one for Democrats to see.

Connecticut: Even Rasmussen agrees there is nothing to see in this race since Chris Dodd’s retirement. Thanks to a massive 70% to 26% favorability rating, Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 54% to 35% and Linda McMahon 56% to 36%.

New York: I already reported Marist’s Senate survey earlier this week, and Quinnipiac’s poll draws the same lessons: Gillibrand starts with an edge in the Democratic primary but Harold Ford certainly has an opening (Gillibrand is up 36-18 with Tasini at 4) and the incumbent would be favored in the general election against Bruce Blakeman; however, she does not pass 50% in this survey (she leads 44% to 27%), a potential sign Blakeman could still gain traction as he introduces himself.

Arizona: John McCain and John Hayworth both released internal polls of what is shaping up to be a rough primary. As you would expect, the two camps’ numbers tell a different story. Hayworth’s survey (conducted by McLaughlin) has the incumbent leading 49% to 33% while McCain’s survey (conducted by POS) has him up 59% to 30%. Given that there is still a long time to go, that McCain is after all the GOP’s former presidential nominee and that he is better known than Hayworth, the latter set of numbers is also quite underwhelming and signals that the challenger has an opening.

Governor: White within single-digits of Perry, Michigan’s Cox leads

Texas: Since Bill White’s entry in the race, Democrats have been paying more attention to this gubernatorial race but Rasmussen is the first pollster to find a real opening for the Houston Mayor: When matched-up with Governor Rick Perry, he trails 48% to 39% - a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent since he is only up single-digits and remains under 50%. Against Kay Bailey Hutchison, White trails by a larger 49% to 36%. As such, whether the general election will be competitive depends from the outcome of the March-April primary; there is no little doubt White would rather face an incumbent with a mediocre 50-48 approval rating.

New York: David Paterson still looks to be heading towards certain defeat in Marist and Quinnipiac’s new polls. His approval rating stands at 26% in the former and 37% in the latter; that might be an improvement over his low points of 2009, but it leaves him in no position to be competitive against the ultra-popular Andrew Cuomo. Marist shows the Attorney General would crush the Governor by a stunning 70% to 23% in the primary, while Quinnipiac shows the margin to be a comparatively modest 55% to 23%. Both surveys have Paterson struggling against Rick Lazio (he trails by 3% in Marist, leads by 1% in Quinnipiac), while Cuomo crushes the former congressman by 37% and 32%.

Michigan: While some cheered Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s early January withdrawal as an opportunity to field a stronger candidate, EPIC-MRA’s latest poll finds state Democrats are hardly saved: Attorney General Mike Cox crushes the three Democrats he is matched-up against by margins ranging from 17% to 22%. Yet, Cox is not certain of surviving the primary, since he leads 32% to 25% against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who does not fare quite as well in the general election: He leads by 17% against Virg Bernero but only by 8% against Andy Dillon and by 7% against Denise Ilitch. The other good news for Democrats is that former GOP Rep. Schwarz is now saying he is 75% certain of running as an independent, which could lead Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Connecticut: Democrats don’t have as clear an edge in this Governor’s race since Susan Bysiewicz dropped out, though they still lead all match-ups in Rasmussen’s new poll: Ned Lamont is up 41-33 against Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and 40-37 against Tom Foley while while Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy tops the two Republicans by just 1%.

New Hampshire: Governor Lynch is one incumbent Democrats will apparently not have to worry about. In Research 2000’s new poll, he crushes low-profile businessman Kimball 59% to 13%.


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An epic polling roundup to get our minds off Massachussetts

Research 2000 and ARG just released two of Massachussetts’s final polls - if not the final polls. ARG found a 7% lead for Brown (52% to 45%), up 4% from where he was just last week. Research 2000, meanwhile, found… a tie: Scott Brown and Martha Coakley receive 48% apiece, a testament to how unpredictable the contest remains heading into Election Day. While at this point any poll that doesn’t have Brown ahead is a relief for Democrats, I don’t have to tell you that even that survey is rough for Coakley: Just last week, Research 2000 found her ahead by 8%, which makes this yet another poll to found stunning momentum for the Republican.

Yet, Research 2000 also confirms the hypothesis I enunciated this morning, as an update to last night’s post: Coakley performs better in polls that include Libertarian nominee Joe Kennedy, who will be on the ballot tomorrow. Pajamas Media and PPP, which gave Brown large leads yesterday, did not include Kennedy at all; surveys that have the race within the margin of error do include Kennedy, who for instance receives 3% in Research 2000. There’s every reason to believe that Kennedy is drawing his voters from the conservative camp, so if the race is close his presence on the ballot could allow Coakley to shave off a few points off Brown compared to PPP’s survey. (ARG’s website appears to be down, so I cannot determine whether they included him.)

It’s hard to think of anything but Massachussetts, but let’s try to do just that: Over the past week, there was so much news to cover that I ignored an avalanche of polls, to which I’ll now get to. Now that we’ve entered 2010, there will be more and more surveys released weekly - even daily - so I will obviously not attempt to cover each one in as much detail as I did over the past year; I will however start with polls that are testing election we’ve seen little data on. Today, those consist in 3 House districts and 2 Western Governor’s races.

(Yes, this is a fairly long post… but I let polls accumulate without covering them for more than a week, so I wanted to get to them all at once to make sure I can focus on Massachussetts and other important news after this!)

Three House races find mixed results for Dems

NC-08: PPP managed to find a freshman Democrat from a swing district with solid standing! In NC-08, a district that swung from Bush to Obama, not only does Rep. Larry Kissell have a strong approval rating (45% to 30%), but he displays no sign of vulnerability in three match-ups against his challengers, leading Lou Huddleston 55% to 37%, Tom D’Annunzio 54% to 38%, Hal Jordan 55% to 39% and Harold Johnson 53% to 39%. Sure, none of these Republicans have much name recognition, but consider all the polls we have seen recently in which incumbent Democrats have struggled to mount any sort of lead against unknown opponents. Yet, not only is Kissell up big but he’s also topping 50%.

ND-AL: The DCCC is relieved Rep. Earl Pomeroy decided to seek re-election, but it doesn’t mean he is a shoo-in to win another term. A new poll by Research 2000 finds him solidly ahead of all of his competitors Kevin Cramer and Duane Sand, but he fails to clear 50% against either. (He’s ahead 46-24 and 47-22, respectively.) This is all the more problematic when you consider that Republicans are 5 times more likely to be undecided than Democrats, so the GOP candidates have a lot of room to grow once they introduce themselves, and the NRCC especially has hope in Cramer (North Dakota Public Service Commissioner). In short: Pomeroy has a good standing and he is clearly favored to win re-election, but he is not safe.

OH-01: If Kissell and Pomeroy look strong, Rep. Steve Driehaus is sinking according to a SUSA poll commissioned by FiredogLake. We already knew that this freshman Democrat was one of the most endangered of the cycle (he is facing a rematch against the Republican he ousted in 2008, and OH-01 is a district with a substantial African-American population, so a drop in black turnout compared to the past cycle would be particularly hurtful to his chances), but SUSA’s numbers are uglier than even optimistic Republicans surely expected: Driehaus trails 39% to 56% for former Rep. Steve Chabot. I don’t need to tell you the odds that an incumbent who trails by 17% might win re-election. (Coincidentally, this is the same exact margin SUSA found against Rep. Vic Snyder on Friday.)

An unexpected Dem opportunity in UT, door is closing in OK

Utah: Democrats were excited at Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Coroon’s decision to challenge Governor Herbert, and a Deseret News poll confirms that Coroon could make the race well-worth watching: Herbert leads 48% to 35%, down from his 56-32 lead back in November. There’s no question that Herbert is heavily favored, but Coroon does represent one third of the state’s population in a capacity that ensures he is a visible presence. At the very least, Coroon’s presence on the ballot could help Democrats ensure that Rep. Jim Matheson isn’t a victim of any potential red wave.

Oklahoma: Whatever Oklahoma’s staunchly conservative status, Democrats had enough of a bench they were expecting to mount a highly competitive bid to defend the state’s governorship. (Governor Henry is term-limited.) Yet, a Tulsa News poll finds that Lieut. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are no match for Rep. Mary Fallin; despite their strong favorability rating (Edmonson’s stands at 51-31), they trail the Republican 52% to 36% and 51% to 39%, respectively. A former Lieutenant Governor, Fallin is well-known and popular (54% to 29%). Democrats shouldn’t entirely give up, but the race most certainly leans Republican.

Connecticut and North Dakota won’t be competitive

From the moment Senators Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd retired two weeks ago, we have known that the races to replace them are unlikely to be competitive. Three new poll confirm that John Hoeven and Richard Blumenthal are very heavily favored to be sworn into the Senate come January 2011.

North Dakota: Richard 2000 finds Hoeven leading 56% to 32% against Ed Schulz, 55% to 34% against former AG Heidi Heitkamp and 56% to 32% against Jasper Schneider. Sure, Hoeven’s lead doesn’t quite reach “overwhelming” status, but looking at the internals it’s hard to see a path to victory for whoever Democrats nominate: There are few undecideds, including among Democratic voters; Hoeven enjoys near unanimous support among Republicans; and he has daunting leads among independents.

Connecticut: We’ve already seen a few surveys displaying Blumenthal’s dominance, but over the past 5 days Quinnipiac and Research 2000 both released surveys confirming it. In Research 2000, Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 54% to 35%, Linda McMahon 56% to 34% and Peter Schiff 56% to 33%. In Quinnipiac, whose brutal numbers for Dodd were as responsible for driving the narrative of his doom than those of any other pollster, his leads are gigantic: 62% to 27% against Simmons, 64% to 23% against McMahon, 66% to 19% against Schiff. Everything can happen if Democrats aren’t careful (see neighboring Massachussetts), but Blumenthal isn’t Martha Coakley.

CO, NH, NV, OH: 4 key Senate races, 7 rough polls for Senate Democrats.

Ohio: Democrats led this open race for much of 2009, but Rasmussen’s new poll is its second in a row to find Rob Portman has grabbed the edge. He leads Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 37% and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 43% to 40%. These numbers are very interesting because the Democratic establishment holds Fisher to be a stronger candidate; yet, Portman increased his lead against Fisher whilelosing ground against Brunner! Overall, then, the two parties are roughly where they were in early December.

Colorado: This week, we received three surveys testing Colorado, which until this week an underpolled state:

  • Rasmussen has by far the worst set of results for Democrats: Senator Michael Bennet trails former Lieut. Gov. 49% to 37%, and he’s also behind lower-profile Tom Wiens (44% to 38%) and Ken Buck (43% to 38%). Former Speaker Andrew Romanoff trails Norton and Wiens by the same margin but is only behind Buck by 1%.
  • In response to these ugly numbers, Bennet released an internal poll, which might have found better results but he is still behind Jane Norton, 43% to 40%.
  • Finally, just this afternoon Research 2000 released the best news Bennet has received in quite some time: Bennet leads Norton 40% to 39%, Buck 41% to 38% and Wiens 42% to 38%; Romanoff trails Norton by 2% but leads Buck and Wiens by 1% and 2%.

There is quite a lot of disparity between these three surveys, and Bennet’s camp will be delighted that he finally manages a lead in a poll - even if it’s well within the MoE. That said, it is clear from all of these surveys that Bennet is stuck at 40% - a dismal place for an incumbent to be, even an appointed one. Colorado remains a major problem for Democrats.

New Hampshire: Another tough Rasmussen poll, since it shows that what once looked like a Democratic-leaning open seat might now be leaning Republican: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes 49% to 40%. (This is roughly the same margin Rasmussen found in September.) Hodes does led lower-profile Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie 45% to 38% and 43% to 37%, respectively. This is

Nevada: With everyone now aware that Harry Reid is one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, there’s been speculation that the party might try to convince him to pull a Chris Dodd, as in retire for the good of the party. But a new poll released last week revealed that Democrats don’t have a Blumenthal-like savior:

  • PPP found Harry Reid trailing Sue Lowden 51% to 41% and Danny Tarkanian 50% to 42% - very ugly margins for a longtime senator against second-tier challengers. Yet, the Republicans enjoy similar margins against other Democrats! Rep. Shelly Berkley trails by 8% against both; Rose Miller trails by 10% and 11%, respectively. Only Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman manages to stay on an equal footing: he ties Tarkanian at 41%, leads Lowden 42% to 40%.
  • If PPP’s numbers were ugly, how can we describe Rasmussen’s? Here, Reid is crushed Lowden 48% to 36% and Tarkanian 50% to 36%! He manages to stay close to former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, but even here he’s stuck at 40%, trailing 44% to 40%.

If polls showing other Democrats doing better than Reid started piling up, the party could hope to convince him to retire; but PPP’s survey cuts that hope short (Research 2000 will also soon release a similar poll), which allows Republicans to feel increasingly confident about picking-up Nevada.

OH, NV and MA: 3 key Governor’s races, three tough polls for Dems

Ohio: If Ted Strickland started 2009 as the clear favorite, he starts 2010 trailing former Rep. John Kasich. Rasmussen finds him trailing 47% to 40%, which is actually a 2% improvement over December’s numbers. Other surveys have found a closer race, but there’s no question that Strickland is in for a very tough battle.

Nevada: Rory Reid is in as much trouble as his father, only the position they’re vying for is different. Sure, Reid manages to lead incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons 43% to 36% in Mason Dixon’s poll, but considering that Gibbons is even more unpopular (his favorability rating is 18% to 53%) than David Paterson that doesn’t mean much; the favorite to win the Republican nomination, Brian Sandoval, crushes Reid 53% to 31%! In a three-way race involving Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who is considering running as an independent, Sandoval and Goodman are close (35% to 33% for the former), with 20% for Reid. There’s no mystery as to why: Reid’s favorability rating is 25% to 35%, Goodman’s 43-15 and Sandoval’s 36-5. Hard to explain Reid’s numbers by anything but his last name.

Massachussetts: Two new polls confirm that Martha Coakley isn’t the only struggling Massachussetts Democrat:

  • PPP shows that Governor Deval Patrick has a dismal approval rating of just 22%. In three-way races involving Treasurer Tom Cahill (as an independent) and one of his 2 Republican opponents, Patrick is ahead but he receives less than 30% (!) and leads whoever is in second place by just 2% or 3%. In both match-ups, the 3 candidates are within 8%.
  • The Boston Globe poll is more favorable to Patrick: His favorability rating is a bad but not horrendous 39/50 and his leads over Cahill are a bit larger. If the GOP nominee is Charlie Baker, Patrick receives 30, Cahill 23% and Baker 19%; if the GOP nominee is Mihos, the numbers are 32, 23 and 19 for Mihos.

Much will depend on how Cahill positions his campaign. A former Democrat, he has been inching closer to the right since announcing he would run as an independent, for instance asking a conservative Republican state legislator to join his ticket.

Democrats’ silver lining is definitely Connecticut

Not only did Chris Dodd’s retirement all but guarantee Democrats will save Connecticut’s Senate seat, but Research 2000 shows they can look forward to in the Governor’s race - and also the 2012 Senate contest. Susan Bysiewicz, who just dropped out of the race last week, was in a very strong position: she led Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele 52% to 33%, Tom Foley 51% to 35% and Mark Boughton 52% to 32%. But the Democrats left in the race look solid as well: Ned Lamont leads 46-36, 46-37 and 46-34 while Dan Malloney is up 44-35, 43-37 and 44-34, respectively.

Research 2000 also tested the 2012 Senate race. In a two-way general election match-up between Joe Lieberman and Chris Murphy, the representative leads the independent senator 45% to 26% - it’s quite stunning to see such a longtime senator fail to receive more than a quarter of the vote. Not only does Murphy crush Lieberman among Democrats (71% to 20%), but also among independents (41% to 22%). Democrats might fear a lot of losses in 2010, but at least Lieberman looks to have too low support to have much hope to win re-election in 2012.


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Rasmussen showers Senate Dems with troubling polls: GOP leads in 5 Dem-held seats

In the heels of his polls from Connecticut, Ohio and Pennsylvania’s Senate races, which he released earlier this week, Rasmussen conducted surveys from other states, finding worrisome signs for Democrats across the board. It speaks to this year’s reversal of fortunes that the best news the party can muster is that Lee Fisher (who was in the lead for much of the year) is staying afloat in Ohio while Alexi Giannoulias has pulled ahead to a lead within the MoE in staunchly blue Illinois.

Put all of this together, and we find that this week Rasmussen has released polls of 5 Senate races Dems are defending in which Republican candidates lead at least one match-up: Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania. (And that still leaves out Arkansas and Delaware, which get us to 7 highly endangered Democratic seats.) On the other hand, the trendline are positive for Democrats in some of these polls, suggesting that the party might have already hit rock-bottom in some of these states; in particular, Rasmussen’s poll is I believe the ever to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead over Mark Kirk!

Let’s start by stating what needs to be said from the get go: Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable to Republicans than any other pollster’s all year, so these surveys represent the worse of the spectrum of possibilities for Democrats. Yet, it would be a mistake for Democrats to dismiss these results as outliers. First, the consistency with which Rasmussen’s results are skewed to the right means that the discrepancy is due to differing turnout models (and there is for now little evidence with which to say that theirs is wrong). Second, Rasmussen’s results are increasingly less divergent with those of other pollsters; PPP, Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon have all recently found similar results in states like NV, PA and OH.

Colorado

Colorado is one state that has been so underpolled that we haven’t had a good idea of the incumbent’s vulnerability. This week, Rasmussen gave us a rare look into Michael Bennet’s prospects - and things look very ugly for the senator, who trails three Republicans challengers: 46% to 37% against former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, 42% to 41% against former state Senator Tom Wiens and 42% to 38% against District Attorney Ken Buck. In September, Rasmussen had Bennett leading Buck by 4% - and that was a more favorable result to the Democrat than PPP’s August survey.

Weighed down by a negative favorability rating (39-46), Bennet looks very vulnerable: I don’t have to tell for any incumbent to be stuck at 40% or to trail against opponents who are as low-profile statewide as Wiens and Buck is a dismal showing. Complicating matters is that state Speaker Andrew Romanoff is performing at similar levels: He faces a slightly larger deficit against Norton (45% to 34%), a slightly smaller one against Buck (41% to 39%) and the same one against Wiens (41% to 40%). Given that Romanoff is not an incumbent, that he can appeal to undecided voters as an outsider and that he has a positive name recognition, he is certainly in a position to make the case that he is more electable than Bennet. (A reminder: Bennet has never  before faced voters in any election.)

Nevada

Harry Reid might face smaller deficits, but his position is arguably far shakier than Bennet because he has far less room to grow as en entrenched incumbent and because his favorability rating is truly atrocious (40% to 57%). Furthermore, he trails former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle 47% to 43% in the very first survey testing her candidacy; a staunch conservative, Angle is reputed the weakest of Reid’s potential opponents so that the senator cannot even muster a lead against her is an ugly sign. Furthermore, Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian 49% to 43%.

The good news for Reid is that he has improved his numbers from Rasmussen’s prior poll of the race: In September, he trailed Lowden by 10% and Tarkanian by 7%, so perhaps his early efforts to improve his image have yielded results. Furthermore, the fact that the results are the same whoever Reid’s opponent confirms that voters aren’t voting Republican because they are enamored with any of the choices but only because of how much they have grown to dislike their senator; unfortunately for Reid, it won’t be easy for him to take advantage of that fact since he is too well-known to easily escape having this race be a referendum on his tenure.

Illinois

Democrats face far less of an uphill climb here, but Illinois is so blue that the party has nothing to boast about consideirng Rep. Mark Kirk’s competitive results: The Republican congressman, who has a stronger favorability rating than any of the 3 Democratic candidates, is within the margin of error in all match-ups. He trails Alexi Giannoulias 42% to 39%, leads Cheryle Jackson 42% to 39% and leads Dave Hoffman 42% to 38%. Just as in Nevada, Democrats can take some comfort in the trendline: Rasmussen’s summer poll had Kirk leading by 3%, while the October survey had a tie.

In fact, I believe this might be the first survey to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead because PPP’s only survey also had a tie while an internal GOP poll had the Republican leading by 7% earlier in October. This could due to the fact that Democrats are occupying airwaves right now: Their primary, which is coming up in February, is more obviously competitive, and Giannoulias and Hoffman are already up on air. (I don’t believe the same is true for Kirk.) Another reassuring nugget for Democrats is that Barack Obama’s approval rating remains strong in his home state (58% to 42%), so Republicans still have to show they can convince state voters to go against their usual party loyalty.


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Weekly 2010 update: Newsom, Wilson and Lawton shook up their state’s gubernatorial races

The chaos reigning in NY-23 bumped my weekly 2010 update from its Sunday slot, so here it comes on Monday morning. (The next 48 hours will obviously be devoted to New Jersey, New York, Maine and Virginia, as well as Washington and California, which are hosting important but lower-profile contests I have mostly stayed away from. Expect an election cheat sheet sometime tomorrow, followed by the usual Election Night coverage!)

Over the past 7 days, prominent politicians made news by announcing that they would not run for Governor: Gavin Newsom, Heather Wilson and Barbara Lawton were all facing tough odds, but their profile made them some of 2010’s major actors. Their decision to stay out of the cycle shakes up California, New Mexico and Wisconsin’s gubernatorial contests quite dramatically, as I detailed throughout the week.

Another state that saw a candidate - albeit a lower-profile one - drop out of the gubernatorial race is Minnesota. Now, that’s an extraordinary development in and of itself since we’ve gotten to used  to every Minnesota politician with any ambition deciding to run for Governor. With Republican state Rep. Paul Kohls’s exit, we’re down to… 15 candidates. Kohls’s decision could mark the start of a winnowing process: Straw polls now being held will decide which low-profile candidates are in a position to continue campaigning until springtime conventions; Kohls’s exit is linked to a poor performance at such a straw poll.

In Senate races, the week’s highest profile news was Christie Vilsack confirming she would not challenge Chuck Grassley in Iowa. We are now awaiting confirmation that Roxane Conlin will jump in the race. In far lower-profile news, lawyer William Bryk has announced he’ll challenge Idaho Senator Mike Crapo; that wouldn’t be news if it wasn’t for the fact that this guarantees Crapo’s re-election race will be more disputed than it was in 2004, when he ran entirely unopposed.

In Colorado, the NRSC was hoping former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton’s entrance would settle the GOP field but it’s done anything but. Not only is Ken Buck staying in, but former state Senator Tom Wiens is entering the race. He is prepared to spend half-a-million of his own money, which is certainly more than pocket-change. Since Norton is provoking some grumbling among the conservative base, Colorado could very well join Florida and New Hampshire as a site of the GOP’s growing civil war; we’ll have to see whether one candidate can position himself as Norton’s main alternative.

Another race in which the GOP field keeps growing is Arkansas. The latest to jump in is Stanley Reed, formerly the head of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and formerly a member of the University of Arkansas Board. By my count, Reed is Blanche Lincoln’s 7th Republican challenger  - and it’s not like his profile makes him any less of a credible contender than most of the others. The good news for the GOP is that there’s a two-round system here, so a weak candidate can’t just move on to the general election with 15% of the vote (which would otherwise technically be possible in 7-way race…).

As always, I list all the changes I have logged in during the week to the “retirement watch” and recruitment pages. Written in red are those politicians who announced their definite plans rather than simply expressed interest or stroke speculation. First, updates to Retirement Watch:

Will retire No one
Will not retire Rep. Danny Davis no longer sure sure to run for Cook County Board President

Second, updates to the Senate recruitment page:

AR-Sen, GOP former Arkansas Farm Bureau head Stanley Reed announced run
CO-Sen former state Senator Tom Wiens launched campaign
IA-Sen, Dem Christie Vilsack will not run
ID-Sen, Dem lawyer William Bryk announced run
SD-Sen, Dem Mark McGovern added to list

Third, updates to gubernatorial recruitment: state Sen. Jason Atkinson

CA-Gov, Dem San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out
MN-Gov, GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls dropped out
NM-Gov, GOP former Rep. Heather Wilson will not run
SC-Gov, GOP Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer files paperwork
VT-Gov, Dem former state Senator Matt Dunne added
state Senator Peter Shumlin added
WI-Gov, Dem Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton dropped out

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Polls show GOP boost in Ohio and Michigan, Jerry Brown’s strength in California

OH: Rasmussen gives Portman first lead in 9 months, Kasich first lead ever

Ever since George Voinovich retired, all but the very first of Ohio’s Senate polls found both Democratic candidates with a solid lead over Republican Rob Portman - one that had extended to as much as 15%. But as is often the case, Rasmussen brings comfort to Republicans by finding a far more competitive race: Portman gets 41% against Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher’s 40%, and he is ahead of Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 40% to 38%. Both margins are well within the MoE, but they represent substantially stronger Republican performances than in other polls.

This is Rasmussen’s first poll of the race, so there is no trendline. In fact, Ohio is rarely polled - especially when compared to a state like New York, which is frustrating considering the high stakes of the Buckeye State’s contests. It’s important to note that Rasmussen contradicts a central finding of other Ohio polls. There is here little name recognition differential between the Democratic candidates and Portman; yet, other polls found Brunner and Fisher far better known. (This is not the first time Rasmussen has found some puzzling name recognition results.)

Rasmussen also tested the Governor’s race, and here again the results are very encouraging for Republicans: Plagued by a mediocre-to-bad approval rating (47% to 50%), Governor Ted Strickland is behind former Rep. John Kasich 46% to 45%. This is the first poll ever released to find Kasich posting any sort of lead, and though the margin is well within the MoE there is no question that this is not favorable territory for any incumbent. Over the summer, PPP and Quinnipiac both found Strickland leading by low single-digits, so this poll does not come out of the blue.

CA: Brown runs far stronger than Newsom

In the heels of its poll finding Barbara Boxer building a lead in the Senate race, Rasmussen released that survey’s gubernatorial numbers. The results should please everyone in the race but San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom. While former Governor Jerry Brown has comfortable leads against the 3 Republican candidates (44% to 35% against Meg Whitman, 44% to 34% against Tom Campbell, 45% to 32% against Steve Poizner) Newsom trails against all three: 42% to 36% against Campbell, 41% to 36% against Whitman and 40% to 36% against Poizner.

I don’t know whether the poll’s most surprising result is the huge differential between Newsom and Brown (Research 2000 recently found Brown running stronger, but nothing resembling Rasmussen’s findings) or the fact that Campbell enjoys a bigger lead than his two Republican rivals. Campbell is not as high-profile as Whitman and Poizner, and he has gotten less media attention - at least when it comes to a national audience. But with Whitman truly to respond to the jaw-dropping revelation that she did not vote for 30 years, Poizner and Campbell definitely have an opening to hammer her; the former is already trying with this hard-hitting new ad.

NJ: Democracy Corps shows Corzine gaining

For months, Democracy Corps has found the most favorable results for Jon Corzine but never had the New Jersey Governor been so close to his competitor: Chris Christie is up 40% to 39%, with Chris Daggett at 11%. Do with the margin what you will (as long as no other pollster finds Corzine within the MoE, whether PPP, Monmouth, Quinnipiac or Franklin, I’ll have trouble believing that Corzine has tied things up), but the trendline is certainly interesting since it suggests Corzine is slowly gaining ground even within Democracy Corps’s turnout model. The evolution is small, however: Christie led by 3% three weeks ago.

MI: Democrats face uphill climb

No one doubts that Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Cherry will have a tough fight on his hands in 2010, but two new surveys suggest Michigan’s governorship is one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities next year:

  • An Inside Michigan Politics survey has Cherry trailing Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard 41% to 38%; he does lead businessman Rick Snyder 42% to 34%. IMP only tested Cox in an unexpected 3-way race involving Cherry and Democratic state Speaker Andy Dillon; Cox leads Cherry manages 35% to 33%.

The polls test different match-ups, so it is difficult to conclude anything electability-wise. Yet, Cox can point not only to his 13% lead but also to the fact that he comes on top of both polls’ primary trial heats. He is in a virtual tie with Rep. Hoekstra in one; he has a somewhat larger lead over Hoekstra in the latter. Also: Both institutes find Rick Snyder with only 2% of the GOP primary, but he should not be underestimated: He just surprisingly won the high-profile straw poll at Mackinac Island’s Republican Leadership Conference. This could help him get more attention, raise more money.

CO: A first look at Senate primaries

In what is the first poll testing Senator Michael Bennet’s vulnerability in the Democratic primary, Republican institute Tarrance Group found the incumbent in a dangerous position against former Speaker Andrew Romanoff: Bennet leads 41% to 27%, a certain proof of vulnerability. Obviously, Bennet cannot be held at the same standard as other senators, for whom a 14% lead in a primary would be verging on the catastrophic: Since his name recognition is still relatively low, Bennet has more room to grow than someone like Arlen Specter, despite the fact that the Pennsylvania senator is posting similar numbers.

On the Republican side, former LG Jennifer Norton crushes DA Ken Buck 45% to 15%. It’s still unclear how this race will shape-up: Buck is clearly to frame it as a conservative-versus-establishment battle, so we’ll have to see how Norton seeks to position herself. In the gubernatorial primary, former Rep. Scott McInnis starts far ahead of state Senator Josh Penry; however, McInnis might not be the establishment favorite since Penry has earned a lot of good press in conservative circles as a GOP rising star. He will have to battle McInnis’s superior name recognition, however.


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Senate: Qpac has Ohio swinging Dem, Rasmussen shows GOP leading in CO, NH and NV

In the heels of yesterday’s Research 2000 polls that found Democrats Chris Dodd and Blanche Lincoln enjoying sunnier yet still worrisome numbers, a flurry of Senate polls gives both parties something to celebrate. Let’s get right to the numbers, as none of these contests needs any introduction:

  • In Ohio, Quinnipiac confirms what most pollsters have found: Democrats have a a clear early edge. Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher leads former Rep. Rob Portman 42% to 31% while Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is ahead 39% to 34%. (Against car dealer Tom Ganley, who is challenging Portman, Fisher is ahead 41% to 29% and Brunner leads 39% to 31%.)
  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen is the first pollster to find Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte with a substantial lead against Rep. Paul Hodes, 46% to 38%. The two candidates have a widely differing favorability rating: 58% to 21% for Ayotte, 46% to 38% for Hodes.
  • In Colorado, Rasmussen gives us the very first poll testing former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton - and the numbers are just as worrisome for Democrats as last week’s survey, which tested other Republican contenders. Norton leads Bennet 45% to 36%; she is also ahead of former Speaker Andrew Romanoff, 42% to 34%. Bennet’s favorability rating is a very worrisome 36-49, which leaves me skeptical as other surveys have not found the appointed senator’s name recognition anywhere near that level.
  • In what is quickly emerging as the Democrats’ biggest 2010 headache, Rasmussen finds Nevada’s Harry Reid trailing former party chairwoman Sue Lowden 50% to 40% and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian 50% to 43%. Here again, I find the favorability ratings bizarre, as I am highly skeptical that enough people already know who Lowden is to give her a 48-27 rating. The same goes for Tarkanian: His 57-30 rating makes him as well-known as incumbent senators of most states.

We are once again confronted with a polling situation that has led to many questions over the past few months: In many races, Rasmussen serves us surveys that are more favorable to Republicans than those of other pollsters - but certainly not in a way that allows us to dismiss these results. For one, this is now consistent enough that it is likely due to a difference in the likely voter screen, and there is simply not enough 2010 polling circulating to know which screen could lead to outlier. There is enough evidence out there that Republicans are more motivated that it would be foolish to blindly denounce Rasmussen’s LV model.

More importantly, Rasmussen’s results in most states are really not significantly different from other surveys - certainly not enough for us to dismiss them. I have made this point about Rasmussen’s surveys in VA and NJ, but it also applies to Nevada and Colorado: PPP has found quite troubling numbers for Bennet in CO (if Beauprez leads by 4%, it is that far-fetched for Rasmussen to show a former LG ahead by 9%?) and Mason Dixon’s NV results are very similar to those of Rasmussen - namely Reid trailing outside of the margin of error against these two potential opponents. Research 2000’s survey was a bit better, but it still had both Tarkanian and Lowden ahead.

To recap: Rasmussen’s survey is the third pollster in the past month that has Reid trailing Tarkanian and Lowden - the second that has one of the Republicans ahead by 10%. If that’s not enough for Reid to push the panic button, I don’t know what is.

The one state in which Rasmussen differs substantially from other pollsters is CA since there is no other evidence for its finding that Barbara Boxer is only ahead of Carly Fiorina by 4%. We can’t add NH to this category. Though Ayotte’s lead might be bigger than we have seen, the Granite State is rarely polled and other surveys (UNH, R2000) have also shown the Attorney General in the lead, albeit within the MoE. So Rasmussen finds the Republican in the lead - but not by margin that is not explained by differences in the LV screen. That’s something we should be able to judge for ourselves by the time 2010 rolls around.

As such, we are here in a situation in which the DSCC can point to some polling to suggest its candidates are not in as big holes as Rasmussen suggests - but there are hardly any recent surveys that find what can genuinely be qualified as good for Bennet, Reid or Hodes.

That’s why Quinnipiac’s Ohio poll is so welcome. The state might be one of the Democrats’ golden pick-up opportunities, but the GOP has always believed Portman enough to guarantee a top-tier campaign. Yet, pollster after pollster have found Fisher and Brunner with a consistent lead. Sure, some of it this comes from a name recognition differential (47% have an opinion of Fisher, 41% of Brunner, 27% of Portman) but that alone cannot explain how the Lieutenant Governor can muster a double-digit lead.

The bottom line is that Ohio still looks like the blue-leaning state it became in the 2006 midterms, during which voters gave Democratic candidates two huge victories in the open Senate and gubernatorial seats. In a generic confrontation between relatively low-profile contenders, voters are choosing the Democratic candidate.

This good news extends to the state’s gubernatorial race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is strengthening his position. Quinnipiac finds his approval rating inching upwards - 48% to 42% - and his lead against former Rep. John Kasich solidifying, 46% to 36%. Sure, Strickland is still endangered - as is any incumbent under 50%. But in the current circumstances, a double-digit lead is nothing for any Midwestern governor to be ashamed of - not to mention that it’s Strickland biggest lead in any poll since April.


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Michael Bennet is in trouble

A credible primary challenge and a general election poll showing a low-profile opponent holding a lead - that’s a lot for a senator to go through in a single day. And if that senator is a political novice who has never before faced voters and has to run for a full term within 2 years of being appointed to his seat, this amounts to an electoral disaster. Yet, that’s what awaits Michael Bennet, the former superintendent of Denver public schools who Governor Bill Ritter unexpectedly chose as Ken Salazar’s replacement.

Romanoff’s primary challenge

Yesterday, former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff took the first step in challenging Bennet in the Democratic primary, announcing that he was forming an exploratory committee. While this had been rumored all year, we can hardly be faulted for not taking the threat entirely seriously: Based on what occurred in New York over the past few months, it’s obvious that it takes a lot for someone to pull the trigger on taking on an incumbent Democratic Senator in his party’s primary.

Romanoff served in the state House from 2000 to 2008, when he was forced out by term limits. He became the state’s first Democratic Speaker in decades when the party took control of the state House in 2004. That year, many thought Romanoff would run for Governor but he ended up passing on the race. His exit from the legislature then left him no obvious path to continue his political career as Rep. Mark Udall was the establishment’s clear choice to run in the 2008 open Senate seat.

Taking on Bennet should prove an easier path than defeating Udall would have been: The former is mostly unknown among state voters, his campaign skills remain a mystery since he has never before ran in an election. Having spent 4 years as Speaker, Romanoff has the credibility to be taken seriously, the political network to raise money and deploy surrogates. He is thus undoubtedly in a position to threaten Bennet’s hold on the Democratic nomination.

He could also capitalize on unions’ discontent towards Bennet, who was one of the most noncommittal senators on EFCA last spring and who distanced himself from the public option. (He spoke about it more warmly last week, when reports first emerged that Romanoff was on the verge of entering the race.) Back when Ritter announced his choice, there was also talk that Democratic leaders from Western and rural counties were unhappy with his pick, so we shall see whether Romanoff can benefit from any remains of that.

And yet, it’s difficult to predict how this primary will unfold. While Bennet has positioned himself as a centrist (besides EFCA and the public option, let’s cite his repeated votes in favor of the GOP’s gun rights amendments, including July’s Thune amendment), Romanoff himself does not have a staunchly progressive reputation. He was reputed to be more liberal than some of Ritter’s other Senate choices, but his record, profile and policy positions do not make it obvious that Romanoff will try to attack Bennet from the left.

As such, unlike what we are seeing in Pennsylvania and what almost occurred in New York, this primary does not look to be motivated by ideological factors and we will have to see whether labor - let alone other liberal groups - will get involved in the race. Interestingly, one of the defining issues of Romanoff’s legislative tenure looks to be his quest to reform the state’s education funding; education has of course been the focus of Bennet’s political career, so could this be a rare federal race in which education is debated?

One final note: Colorado holds an August primary, which is relatively late and could potentially hurt the Democratic nominee heading into the general election. However, Republicans are set to go through a competitive primary of their own, so both parties will be in the same boat; furthermore, the Bennet-Romanoff showdown could allow Democrats to stay in the news at a time the GOP might have been hoping to dominate news coverage thanks to its own nomination contest, so this could blunt whatever primary bounce Republicans might otherwise receive.

Trouble in November

If Bennet does survive the primary, he can’t look forward to an easy general election. A new Rasmussen survey paints quite a worrisome picture for the incumbent Senator: Weighed down by a weak favorability rating, he leads District Attorney Ken Buck 43% to 37% and he trails Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier 40% to 39%. Do I even need to tell you how dismal a sign it is for an incumbent Senator to poll below 40% - let alone to fall behind as little-known an opponent as Frazier?

(I might understand why Rasmussen did not test a match-up between Bennet and Romanoff: polling a Democratic-only race would require a bigger sample, thus more money. But I find it incomprehensible they did not include former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, who formed a campaign committee this week. I assume Norton would have enjoyed a bigger lead against Bennet, but we have never seen her tested in any public poll so we can only rely on speculation and some data would be nice.)

Democrats should not dismiss this poll as other surveys have found similar results. The most recent Colorado poll was published by PPP last month; it found Bennet trailing Bob Beauprez (who has since decided not to run) and narrowly leading Buck and Frazier, with less than 40% against both. There is no denying that Colorado is one of the NRSC’s top 2010 opportunities.


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Jane Norton enters Colorado’s Senate race

The NRSC has spent months looking for a challenger to Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, and they are now left hoping it was not a mistake for them to privilege former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton over former Rep. Bob Beauprez. When Beauprez unexpectedly announced he would not run two weeks ago, it was clear that his decision had a lot to do with Norton’s name surfacing - and it did not take long for her to capitalize on this opening.

Today, Norton filed the necessary paperwork to create an exploratory committee. While that is in not a candidacy statement, it is a major step in that direction and the fact that it was preceded by a high-profile Republican’s withdrawal leaves little doubt that Norton has already signaled to the GOP establishment that she’ll go all the way.

So there we are: In both Colorado and Arkansas, two states in which the GOP was having trouble recruiting any credible candidate at all, the NRSC has landed solid challengers. (We might soon offer a similar analysis about Nevada.) Sure, Norton isn’t the strongest contender Republicans could field; neither is Gilbert Baker in Arkansas. But compared to the inexperienced, gaffe-prone or low-profile contenders the GOP was until now relying on, they should be able to at least put the incumbent Democrats in delicate positions and take advantage of any favorable breeze Republicans might enjoy.

That said, Norton brings a number of question marks of her own. For one, she has never ran for office on her own name as the only office she has occupied is that of Lieutenant Governor, a post she won in 2002 on a ticket with Bill Owens, who was by then already the incumbent. So how will she hold up once the spotlight is on her? Can she avoid the types of mistakes that have plagued other rookie campaigners this year?  What parts of her record have yet to be explored because she never faced a competitive race herself?

Relatedly, some of her fame comes from her years heading the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment; but how much broader name recognition does that give her? As I do not believe any survey already taken of the race have included Norton, we’ll have to wait for the next poll to get a clearer idea as to her notoriety - and it’s not like Colorado tends to be the most polled of states.

Finally, Norton should expect to face a tough Republican primary. As we are seeing in New Hampshire, Florida and arguably Missouri, conservative activists are in no mood to let the NRSC impose them candidates - and a new front in that battle could open up in Colorado. Just as Kelly Ayotte’s job as AG has not clearly delineated her politics, Norton looks to be less defined ideologically than other Colorado Republicans.

Weld County DA Ken Buck has already made it clear he will not clear the field for Norton. “While other candidates may still jump in the Senate race, one thing is clear — our party’s nominee will be chosen by Colorado’s grassroots Republicans, not by political operatives in Washington D.C,” he declared in a statement last week. We’ll keep an eye on Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and businessman Clive Tidwell, both of whom are already running.

After all, the Republican nomination is well worth fighting over. As soon as we learned Governor Ritter had appointed the politically inexperienced Michael Bennet as the new Senator, it was clear the DSCC would not have an easy time defending the seat and recent polls have made it clear that Democrats should not simply expect Bennet’s numbers to improve as he introduces himself to voters; not only has that not been happening, but Norton, Buck and Frazier will have just as much time to improve their name recognition.

Update: The comment section made me realize what issue could be a major problem in Norton’s relationship with conservatives - Referendum C, which fired up Colorado politics in 2005 and pitted Owens’s Administration against much of his base.


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Senate: A drop-out, a quasi-drop out and a confusing about-face

Louisiana: Honore supposedly backs down from Vitter challenge

Who even knew there were this many Louisiana Republicans who were high-profile enough to be credible primary challengers to a sitting Senator? At this point, we have more GOPers than Democrats who have thought about jumping in this race, which really tells you all you need to know about the state’s political situation. Over the past year, Tony Perkins, former Rep. John Cooksey and former Senate candidate Suzanne Haik Terrell all looked like they would enter the race - but all backed down within days of their names surfacing. (Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is still considering it.)

It has now happened again: Reports last week indicated that retired Lt. Gen. Russel Honore, who led the Army’s efforts in the aftermath of Katrina, was leaning towards challenging Vitter in the Republican primary. Honore moved to quell speculation today, insisting that this buzz is “all about speculation and rumors,” that “no one’s talking to me about running for Senate” and that he doesn’t even have a partisan affiliation. “As of this time, I’m not running for any political office,” he said.

Yet, Honore could have issued an infinitely more emphatic denial had he wanted to. His use of the qualifier “as of this time” is typical political parlance used to evade offering a definite answer (see Cuomo, Mario) and it ensures that Honore’s statement is perfectly meaningless: Yes, of course he is not running for anything as of this time. The question is if he will do so in a few months, namely when he finalizes his return to Louisiana. And the terms rumor and speculation don’t tell us much either, since neither rumors nor speculation are necessarily wrong.

What happens in the Republican primary matters a great deal for Democrats as well: Much of Vitter’s vulnerability comes from the D.C. Madam scandal he was involved in, but poll numbers suggest he has managed to get voters to put that behind him. If Vitter faces a primary, the 2007 events are sure to be revisited at great length; by the time Vitter gets around to facing Melancon, voters would have the D.C. Madam fresh on their mind - making the Democrats’ task that much easier. Otherwise,it’s tough to see Vitter enter the compressed general election period vulnerable enough for Melancon to have a good shot.

South Carolina: Will anyone take on DeMint?

Whatever small chance Democrats had of unseating South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint looks to be evaporating. The ultraconservative Republican is helped not only by his state’s right-wing bent but also by the dismally thin Democratic bench. With the few Democrats who can hope to win statewide eying the open Governor’s race and Inez Tenenbaum’s move to Washington, all eyes had turned to state Senator Brad Hutto as the DSCC’s only viable hope.

As one of 46 state Senators, Hutto obviously lacked the profile to make a formidable challenger. But having served since 1996, he has had the time to build enough political connections that the prospect of his candidacy was taken seriously by national Democrats: Hutto had already met with DSCC officials, which is how his name surfaced as a potential contender in the first place. (In third tier races like this one, it’s difficult to foresee any movement unless national parties are willing to get minimally involved, give their blessing to a contender to make him credible in the eyes of donors and possibly even consider some ad buys to test the incumbent’s vulnerability.)

With Mark Sanford’s scandal weighing down state Republicans, 2010 might have provided an opening for state Democrats. But it does not look like DeMint has much to worry about.

Colorado: What just happened?

Last week, The Denver Post reported that Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck was going to announce his exit from the Colorado Senate race yesterday… only to change his mind in the morning and issue a statement reasserting his candidacy and warning national Republicans not to interfere with state politics. “While other candidates may still jump in the Senate race, one thing is clear — our party’s nominee will be chosen by Colorado’s grassroots Republicans, not by political operatives in Washington D.C,” said his statement.

Translation: Former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, whose name suddenly surfaced two weeks ago, should not count on having an easy ride through the Republican nomination. If reports of Buck’s exit suggested that Norton was indeed on the verge of entering the race and that the GOP establishment was simply trying to clear up the field for her (remember that Bob Beauprez unexpectedly said he would not run last week), Buck’s defiant statement is just as clear an indication that we should expect Norton to enter the race. And if she does, it looks like we might have to add Colorado to the growing list of states in which local conservatives are in an open feud with the NRSC.

(Of course, the Colorado landscape is further complicated by the prospect of Andrew Romanoff challenging Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary. But since that buzz is also based on a Denver Post report, let’s wait for Romanoff to make a more public move before analyzing that match-up.)


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GOP shuffle in Colorado: Beauprez unexpectedly exits Senate race

When a prominent politician decides to forgo a Senate run, it can be a crushing blow to his party (see Tom Ridge), a huge relief (see Jim Bunning) or something in between whose exact significance is hard to decipher. Former Rep. Bob Beauprez’s unexpected decision not to challenge Colorado Senator Michael Bennet falls in the latter category.

Beauprez was the GOP’s highest-profile candidate left since Mark Hillman, Scott McInnis and John Suthers ruled out campaigns of their own; add to that Bill Owens and John Elway’s apparent disinterest and much of Colorado Republicans’ bench is accounted for.

As such, the GOP spent most of the spring and summer thinking of Beauprez as its probable nominee. There was an obvious reason to worry about that, namely that Beauprez was crushed by 17% in the open 2006 Governor’s race. But Beauprez had started to look like a desirable get nonetheless.

One, Beauprez would have started with a high-enough profile to immediately get in the meat of things against a little-known Senator who has never faced voters. Second, his entry would have been enough to make the press and donors take the race seriously - something that cannot be said of the other Republicans already in the race. Third, Beauprez has already led Bennet in two surveys released by PPP - one of them last week. Any challenger who can lead an incumbent in public polls is worthy of his party’s attention.

Thus, the NRSC has some reason to be disappointed by Beauprez’s exit while Bennet can be relieved he does not have to worry about the one candidate who is already leading him in polls.

And yet, it’s hard to see Republicans lamenting the exit of a man who suffered such a crushing statewide defeat just 3 years ago; even in a cycle as one-sided as 2006, a 17% margin is as clear an indictment of his statewide electability as anything we could imagine. Too many questions marks surrounded the former representative for the NRSC to mourn him as that formidable a contender.

This is even more so the case because a new Republican emerged as a potential candidate last week: Jane Norton, Bill Owens’s Lieutenant Governor from 2002 and 2006, is now considering the race. Her camp recently said she will make her decision known within 30 days, and reports indicated that Beauprez was likely to defer to her decision. So should we take Beauprez’s exit as a sign that Norton has decided that she will run? In that case, his decision is not only nothing for the GOP to mourn but also a harbinger of a potentially stronger candidate to come.

It’s not that Norton does not come with question marks of her own since she has never ran for office on her own name, but her political experience, ties to  Owens and her years heading the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment have made her far more accustomed to the big political stage than any of the GOP’s other options: Weld County DA Ken Buck, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and businessman Clive Tidwell.

Both Buck and Frazier have attracted buzz and Republicans insist they have what it takes to defeat Bennet, but it’s hard not to notice that neither has ran anything comparable to a Senate race, it remains to be seen how they would hold up on the trail and they would give the GOP far less to work with than Nortnon and Beauprez would.

In short: Either Beauprez’s exit paves the way for Norton’s candidacy, in which case the GOP has nothing to complain about since it got as strong a candidate and avoided a primary.

Or Norton follows Beauprez out the door, in which case today’s development contributed to ensuring the NRSC fails to field a top-tier challenger and is left hoping that one of the lesser-known contenders is worthy of his buzz.


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Still more: McCollum leads Sink, Beauprez tops Bennett - but at least Obama crushes Palin

Against 3 Republicans, Bennet is stuck under 40%

Democrats are trailing in yet another Senate poll - and this time the survey was not released by Rasmussen. PPP’s latest look at Michael Bennet’s prospect finds the Colorado Senator narrowly trailing former Rep. Bob Beauprez 42% to 39%. Bennet posts small leads against lesser-known rivals: 39% to 35% against DA Ken Buck and 38% to 33% against councilman Ryan Frazier.

Needless to say, for an incumbent to be under the 40% mark - let alone to trail - is highly worrisome. Yes, Bennet is no ordinary incumbent: He was appointed to the seat in December, has never faced voters and is thus not very well known in Colorado - a situation that has many insisting that he is bound to increase his support as voters get more familiar with him and come to think of him as their Senator. Yet, Bennet’s numbers have been declining with time rather than improving: In April, PPP found Beauprez holding a 1% lead. Furthermore, Bennet’s approval rating has gone from 34-41 to 31-38.

In many ways, Bennet’s situation is reminiscent of Burr’s, which PPP tested last week: Both are not very well defined among the electorate and that makes them both highly vulnerable. Indeed, their low name recognition means they have room to grow - but it also means that the opposition’s attacks will be more effective than is typically the case against more entrenched incumbents. It also makes Bennet’s fate that much more tied in to the national environment - and we won’t really know where the winds are blowing for many more months.

Yet, neither has yet drawn top-tier opposition. Even if Beauprez does jump in the race, he’ll have to show he can overcome the stain of his 17% statewide loss in the 2006 Governor’s race; with Frazier and Buck both little-known, the GOP is still looking for another candidate. And a new name has just popped up: former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton is reportedly considering the race. Bill Owens’s running mate from 2002 to 2006, Norton has also presided over the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. While she might be a candidate worth recruiting, there is no reason for Bennet to start trembling: Norton has never ran for office on her own name and her time in the public spotlight was relatively short.

McCollum leads Sink, but it’s a Chamber poll

The poll was taken by a Republican pollster for Florida’s Chamber of Commerce; it contains no crosstabs or internal data. But since it tested a major 2010 race about which we have seen no data for months, I will post a few lines about it here: In the state’s Governor’s race, the survey finds Republican Bill McCollum leading Alex Sink 43% to 34%.

This is McCollum’s largest lead yet, but his advantage should not be overstated: At 43%, his level of support is roughly equal to that of other recent polls - whether Mason Dixon or Rasmussen. Furthermore, the two surveys that have tested this race with the largest sample sizes have found quite different results: Strategic Vision had McCollum up 2% while Quinnipiac had Sink leading by 4%. Add to that the fact that this polls should be taken with a grain of salt, and there is no reason for Democrats to be alarmed about this race.

At the moment, the biggest worry Florida Democrats should be thinking about has little to do with McCollum or with Sink - after all, the latter isn’t yet well-known enough for these early polls to reflect that accurate a picture. Rather, it’s Charlie Crist’s presence at the top of the ballot that could be a major headache for Democratic prospects in the Governor’s race: Crist’s approval rating in this poll is 67%, and while that is on the high-end of what surveys have found, his Senate coattails could help boost McCollum’s gubernatorial numbers.

Palin has nowhere to go in 2012 general election

Unsurprisingly, Marist’s latest poll of the 2012 race finds a muddied Republican field: Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabe are all within 2% of each other, from 21% to 19%. The GOP nomination will be anyone’s game, there will be many more competitors than these and there’s little point in analyzing the dynamics of this primary before we’re done with the 2010 midterms.

But Marist’s decision to test Obama against Sarah Palin leads to quite an important finding - one that will not surprise most of you but that is still significant to see in poll-form: The former Alaska Governor might have a shot at the Republican nomination, but she has nowhere to go in the general election. Obama crushes her 56% to 33%, winning 92% of the Democratic vote, 20% of the Republican vote and 62% of the Hispanic vote; he leads by 15% among independents and 9% in the South.

In a country that has yielded single-digit margins in every election since 1984, that’s as big a lead as you will see in a presidential trial heat.

The bottom line is that post-resignation Palin attracts nobody but the most hardcore Republican base - those voters who would never consider doing anything else than voting for the GOP nominee. And it’s going to be extremely difficult for Palin to broaden her appeal: While most presidential candidates have an opportunity to introduce themselves to the public at large, voters have a fixed and very defined view of Palin - more so than for any other national figure save Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. And that leaves Palin with nowhere to go beyond the conservative base.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What remains on the table

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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