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Category Archive for ‘Colorado’ at Campaign Diaries
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Archive for the 'Colorado' Category


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Primary watch: Simcox drops out in Arizona, Michigan field takes shape, Colorado heats up

Arizona: Simcox drops out, endorses Hayworth

Of the many factors that make John McCain the favorite to survive Arizona’s Senate primary, one has been conservatives’ division between former Rep. J. D. Hayworth and Chris Simcox, head of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps. While Simcox failed to pick-up much traction, whatever support he received was bound to come from voters who could be receptive to Hayworth, since McCain’s two challengers are both best-known for their staunch opposition to immigration. As such, Hayworth’s path to victory cleared up this week when Simcox dropped out of the race and endorsed him. Not only does this development open up a new group of voters to Hayworth, but it also makes the primary a straightforward opposition between McCain and Hayworth, which could help the latter highlight the battle’s ideological significance and as such gain traction among conservative voters.

It is essential for Hayworth to make the primary’s ideological stakes as high as possible since he cannot count on much support among the conservative movement’s elected establishment: McCain’s stature ensures that many of the hard-right’s leaders not defy him. We’ve long known Sarah Palin wil campaign for McCain, and during the past week two Republicans who have been endorsing conservatives left and right announced they would sit Arizona out: South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Texas Rep. Dick Armey, a major player in NY-23’s special election.

But McCain’s national profile ensures that the Arizona primary gets covered at length by the local and national press, which should ensure Hayworth a lot of free media and should also help him be financially competitive. Also, the GOP establishment will stay by McCain’s side in a way they have not by Crist’s, but conservative media outlets will help Hayworth, as a new Politico story makes clear: commentators like Glenn Beck and Michael Savage want McCain gone. Come early August, I would not be surprised if Arizona’s primary grabs more attention than Florida’s in some quarters.

Michigan: A clearer picture of the Democratic primary

Six weeks after John Cherry’s unexpected withdrawal, the situation in Michigan’s gubernatorial race has gotten more straightforward as two Democrats took themselves out of the running: pizza heiress and UM regent Denise Ilitch, whom the party was courting because of her fortune, and former Treasurer Bob Bowman, who pulled the plug just a few days after hinting that he would run. That leaves Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and state Rep. Alma Wheeler, who have already announced, and state Speaker Andy Dillon, who has formed an exploratory committee and who is believed by many to be a sure candidate. (Former Genesee County Treasurer Dan Kildee is also mentioned as a possible candidate, though he doesn’t appear to have taken steps towards a possible candidacy.)

This could make for a fiery primary with clear fault lines between the centrist Dillon and the populist Bernero. Dillon has a very rough relationship with unions, which are obviously a powerful force in Michigan primaries. Bernero, who is considered a labor ally, will campaign as an outsider ready to take on anyone associated with the state government or the federal government, which is arguably a message Democratic candidates need to be credible making this year. “The clueless leadership at the State Capitol doesn’t get it,” he said upon launching his campaign last week. “The so-called leaders in the Washington bubble don’t get it either. And the Wall Street wizards who helped put us here definitely don’t get it.” That Bernero did serve in the sate legislature this decade could in this context be turned against him.

Bernero’s main problem should be a lack of name recognition (Lansing is a small city relatively to Michigan’s size, with about 140,000 inhabitants out of the state’s 10 million), which could be tough to overcome given his late entry in the race if party leaders and donors rally behind Dillon; that said, the AFL-CIO and the UAW could do a lot to help him in this regard. Yet, while most of the recent attention has been turned to Bernero, Alma Wheeler could also stake a claim to being the lead alternative to Dillon; a state legislator with a liberal profile, she could win over union support (she was an ally of David Bonior, who’s close to labor) but she could also hope to position herself as an outsider from the state’s Democratic leadership since she has been a longtime critic of Governor Jennifer Granholm.

Colorado: Romanoff rolls out endorsements

Challengers to U.S. Senators rarely win low-profile primaries, as voters are usually than not reluctant to oust incumbents of their own parties. That made Andrew Romanoff’s low-key approach to challenging Michael Bennet somewhat confusing, but the former Speaker is finally generating more press and showing the signs that he’s putting together the type of campaign he’ll need. First, he was endorsed by a long slate of Democratic slate legislators, including House Majority Leader Paul Weissmann and Senate Majority Leader John Morse and two thirds of the state House’s Democratic delegation.

Second, Romanoff received the endorsement of the Teamsters and of the UFCW, two large unions who will help Romanoff in what could be a low-profile opponent. Their move is undoubtedly partly due to Bennet’s refusal to take a stand on EFCA; not only was he one of 11 wavering Democrats, but he also bashed the measure.

Yet, the recent days have reminded us of why incumbents are often favored: they can put themselves in the news far more easily. As such, Barack Obama will visit Denver on Bennet’s behalf tomorrow, and however much Romanoff criticizes as Washington’s involvement in Colorado politics, the president remains very popular among Democrats. Second, Bennet took the lead in writing a letter to Harry Reid yesterday asking him to revive the public option through the use of reconciliation; the letter, which has now been joined by 7 senators, has been largely covered by the local press, is the sort of story that could make the state’s Democratic voters warm to Bennet.


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Poll watch: Bayh crushes Coats, Pomeroy & Shea-Porter struggle, GOP solid in PA

Less than three weeks from Texas’s primaries

Earlier this week, PPP shook up our expectations as Kay Bailey Hutchison suddenly looked in danger of being knocked out of the runoff by libertarian Debra Medina. Since then, three new Texas surveys have been released, all with a differing take on what is likely to happen on March 2nd. Research 2000 finds a likely runoff between Rick Perry and Hutchison, who come in at 42% and 30% with Medina at a still-impressive 17%. The University of Texas has Rick Perry closer to a first round victory (he is at 45%, with 16% still undecided) and a stunningly close race for second, with Hutchison at 21% and Medina at 19%. Finally, a poll conducted by two partisan firms shows Hutchison in front of Medina (27% to 19%) but Perry so close to 50% that it might not matter.

But all of these surveys were conducted before Medina attracted fire not only from the mainstream press but also conservatives like Glenn Beck for expressing openness to the possibility that the government was involved in bringing down of the World Trace Center. “I think some very good questions have been raised in that regard,” she said. “There are some very good arguments, and I think the American people have not seen all of the evidence there, so I have not taken a position on that. I’m certainly not into mind control or thought policing people.” This has gained a lot of coverage and should negatively affect her numbers. The question is: Does it help Perry cross 50% on March 2nd?

Two of these surveys also tested the general election, both finding Houston Mayor Bill White well within striking distance. In R2000, he trails Perry only 46% to 42%; he’s down 47-41 against Hutchison and 44-43 against Medina. The margins are larger according to the University of Texas, but both Perry and Hutchison are well under 50% (they lead 44-35 and 43-34, respectively); Medina and White are tied at 36%.

Bayh might not be that vulnerable after all

The week’s other very interesting poll comes from Indiana, where Research 2000 is the first pollster to test former Senator Dan Coats since he announced he was planning a political comeback two weeks ago. And the result is far less favorable than what the GOP was hoping to see: Coats’s favorability rating is only 38-34, weaker than former Rep. John Hosettler’s, which stands at 40-33. Evan Bayh, whose favorability rating stands at a solid 61-33, demolishes Coats 55% to 35%; against Hostettler, he is up by a narrower yet solid 53% to 37%.

A major reason Bayh has been painted as vulnerable in recent week is a Rasmussen survey showing him struggling against Mike Pence and against Hostettler; R2000 paints a very different situation, so it will certainly be interesting to see where other polls pit the race. Yet, Coats sure doesn’t look like a game-changer - and perhaps we should not be surprised at that: remember that he has not had his name on a ballot since 1992. The past 10 days have marked the first time most Indiana residents have heard about him in over a decade, and the coverage has been remarkably negative, which explains the rough welcome Coats has gotten as he has started to hit the trail.

House

VA-05: Given the number of House surveys that have found Democratic incumbents sinking (SUSA in AR-02, IN-09 and OH-01, most notably), we could have expected Rep. Tom Perriello to be in far worse shape than PPP finds him in. One of the NRCC’s top targets, Perriello is tied against state Senator Robert Hurt, 44% to 44%; the Democrat manages leads ranging from 4% to 10% against other GOP candidates. (While they might have a lower-profile, don’t forget how often we have seen unknown Republicans grab leads against incumbent Democrats lately.) Making matters more complicated is the prospect that former Rep. Virgil Goode, whom Perriello defeated in 2008, run as an independent: Boosted by a 57-28 favorability rating, Goode ties Perriello at 41%, with Hurt at 12%.

ND-AL: Tom Pomeroy might be keeping his head above water, but Earl Pomeroy is more vulnerable than is commonly believed, at least according to Rasmussen’s new poll. Like many of his colleagues, the 17-year incumbent finds himself trailing against Republicans he probably would have crushed in most cycles: against state Rep. Rick Berg, he is down 46% to 40%. While he maintains a 45-44 edge over Kevin Cramer, he has defeated him twice before, making this result underwhelming. Pomeroy does have a 47-38 edge over low-profile Paul Schaffner, but even then he remains under the 50% threshold. Put ND-AL in the column of truly endangered districts few expected would be vulnerable as 2009 started.

NH-01 and NH-02: In addition to releasing a Senate race (see below), UNH conducted a poll of both of New Hampshire’s districts, finding a very tough landscape for Democrats. (An important caveat: the margin of error is a large 6.2%.) In NH-01, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is in a truly terrible position, failing to garner more than 33% whoever she faces and leading 43% to 33% against former Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. In NH-02, left open by Democrat Paul Hodes, former GOP Rep. Charlie Bass would be favored to regain his old seat if he runs: He leads Ann McLane Kuster 39% to 28% and Katrina Swett 37% to 30%. Sure, Bass’s name recognition is higher but New Hampshire does seem fertile ground for Republicans this year.

Senate

New Hampshire: Two different polls found remarkably similar results and confirmed what surveys have found over and over again since last fall, namely that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has built a comfortable but stable lead over Rep. Paul Hodes. UNH has her ahead 41% to 33% while Rasmussen pits it at 46% to 39%. However, other Republicans are weaker: Hodes leads decisively against Ovide Lamontagne (38-29 in UNH, 44-38 in Rasmussen), while it is closer against William Binnie (he’s up 34-30 in UNH, trails 42-41 in Rasmussen). A recent Research 2000 poll showed that Ayotte is far from certain of winning the primary, but the fact that Hodes is trailing against a relatively unknown businessman is a bad sign for voters’ willingness to vote Democratic.

Missouri: Rasmussen might be the only pollster to find Robin Carnahan trailing outside of the margin of error, but today marked the second poll they have released with such a finding: Weighed down by Barack Obama’s 40-59 approval rating, Carnahan trails Rep. Roy Blunt 49% to 42%. Though Carnahan would likely have an edge in normal circumstances, Missouri is conservative enough that it should not surprise us to see Blunt carried by the GOP currents.

North Dakota: No miracle for Democrats in North Dakota, where Governor John Hoeven looks even more formidable than conventional wisdom dictates according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. Not only does he enjoy an eye-popping 85% approval rating, but he crushes state Senator Potter and former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp 71-17 and 65-29, respectively. This has got to be all the more frustrating for Democrats that Heitkamp’s has a respectable favorability rating (54-36).

Louisiana: Here’s one race Democrats will not be contesting come November. It’s been obvious for weeks that Rep. Charlie Melancon’s hopes of pulling off an upset have been fading, but the Rasmussen survey with Senator David Vitter leading 57% to 33% is brutal for Democrats. With a 67% to 26% favorability rating, Vitter’s standing bears no trace of the D.C. Madam scandal.

Pennsylvania: With Senate Democrats in bad shape in Delaware, Arkansas or Nevada, they cannot afford to lose but Rasmussen finds Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak by decisive margins: 47-38 and 43-35, respectively. I’ve said it before, and I’ve said it again. I am not sure how a five-term senator can survive trailing by 9% and struggling to break 40%, while Pennsylvanians should be more open to voting for the lesser-known Sestak; that also explains why Toomey is further from 50% in the latter match-up. Yet, Specter manages to keep a comfortable lead in the primary: 51% to 36%. That might have been an encouraging back in the fall, but three months from Election Day, the time has come for Sestak to gain traction.

Governor

Colorado: Rasmussen confirms that replacing Governor Bill Ritter with Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has improved Democratic prospects. While Ritter was weighed by a negative approval rating, Hickenlooper is popular (his favorability rating is 56-36); while Ritter trailed Scott McInnis in most late 2009 surveys, Hickenlooper leads 49% to 45%. That might not be anything for Democrats to celebrate, but it does leave them in a better position not just to defend the Governor’s Mansion but perhaps also the Senate seat.

Ohio: The good news for Ted Strickland is that his numbers are no longer in free fall. The bad news is that he stopped the bleeding too late not to look highly endangered. Weighed down by a negative approval rating (46-53) and facing a challenger that appears popular (John Kasich’s favorability rating is 47-30), Strickland trails 47% to 41% according to Rasmussen; that’s slightly less than in January, but it leaves him in a rough spot. Might Ohio Democrats have something to learn something from Colorado?

Illinois: The first poll taken since the Illinois primary found Governor Pat Quinn in a stronger position than he looked to be a few weeks ago, perhaps due to a bounce resulting from the coverage of his victory. Against state Senator Bill Brady, Quinn leads 42% to 31%, with 4% going to Green Party nominee Rich Whitney; against state Senator Kirk Dillard, who trails the GOP primary by 400 votes and has not conceded, Quinn is up 41% to 35%. An important caveat: The poll was conducted by Victory Research, a group I had never heard before.

Pennsylvania: Now that he has gotten rid of Jim Gerlach’s primary threat, Attorney General Tom Corbett looks unstoppable in Rasmussen’s latest poll: He crushes Jack Wagner 49-29, Joe Hoeffel 51-29 and Dan Onorato 52-26. While this is nothing we haven’t seen before, and even if we account for Rasmussen representing the GOP-friendly end of the polling spectrum, the margins by which Corbett is demolishing his opponents bode ill for other Pennsylvania Democrats.

Michigan: Rasmussen’s poll of this wide open race confirms the GOP can be optimistic since Republican candidates lead 11 of 12 trial heats. Only Speaker Andy DillonĀ  manages a 36-35 edge over Attorney General Mike Cox, though he trails 40-32 against Sheriff Mike Bouchard and 41-34 against Rep. Pete Hoekstra. The other important match-ups concern Lansing Mayor Van Bernero, who trails by 6%, 9% and 13%, respectively. This poll is somewhat surprising, since EPIC-MRA has repeatedly shown Cox to be the strongest Republican in the general election; it is also striking that Democrats looked to be in worse shape when Lieutenant Governor John Cherry was in the race. Cherry never looked to be within striking distance, whereas Bernero and Dillon do.


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Senate GOP leads in AR, NH, NV, CO, KY, IL but Reid enjoys uptick & Ayotte struggles in primary

The week’s most dramatic polls no doubt are those from Arkansas since they suggest that Blanche Lincoln’s fate is all but sealed. Rasmussen finds the senator’s favorability rating at a dismal 36-59; PPP shows her approval rating at an even more catastrophic 27-62. Her numbers against Republicans are a disaster. PPP has her down 56% to 33% against Rep. John Boozman and 50% to 35% against Gilbert Baker; Rasmussen shows her trailing by similar margins - 54% to 35% against Boozman, 52-33 against Baker, 50-34 against Curtis Coleman, 51-35 against Kim Hendren. Those are not numbers an incumbent recovers from.

The problem for Democrats is that they can hardly pull a Dodd or a Torricelli: PPP tested a variety of alternatives to Lincoln and found the GOP generally in control. The party’s only savior could be popular Governor Mike Beebe - and even then he is down 1% against Boozman and he leads Baker by an underwhelming 46% to 38%. Rep. Mike Ross trails Boozman 48-37 but ties Baker at 39%; Wesley Clark is down 51-36 and 45-39, respectively and Halter 53-30 and 45-34.

While none of these results are encouraging for Democrats, all four of her potential replacements perform better than the senator. Since Halter, Ross and Clark’s name recognition is lower and favorability ratings is incomparably stronger than Lincoln, they would also have more hope of improving their results while it is hard to envision the incumbent doing so. In short, the GOP is more likely than not to pick-up this seat but it does not mean Democrats should not at least try a switcheroo.

Senate: GOP also leads in NH, NV, CO, KY and IL…

New Hampshire: The first public poll of the GOP’s Senate primary finds that Attorney General Kelly Ayotte has her work cut out for her: Research 2000 has her only leading Ovide Lamontagne 36% to 27%, with William Binnie at 4%. If conservatives decide they can add New Hampshire to an already long list of summer primaries they want to prioritize, Lamontagne could very well pull the upset and thus give Democrats a boost in the general election. While Rep. Paul Hodes trails Ayotte 46% to 39%, leads Lamontagne 46% to 36% - a 17% differential. The bad news for Democrats, of course, is that Ayotte remains the front-runner and her high favorability ratings and early poll lead presage good things for the NRSC.

Nevada: Harry Reid arguably just received the best poll he has seen in months - and it came from Rasmussen! While his numbers remain very rough, they are for once not insurmountable: His favorability rating stands at 44/55 and he trails all of his competitors “only” by single-digits: 45-39 against Lowden, 47-39 against Tarkanian and 44-40 against Angle. Of course, an incumbent has nothing to boast about when stuck around 40%, but last month Reid trailed by double-digits in all match-ups. We’ll have to see whether this trendline is an outlier or whether it is due to Reid’s well-financed attempts to improve his image. The poll’s most interesting part is the match-up between Reid and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, who has been mulling the race ever since he was cleared of an indictement: Krolicki has the smallest lead among these four Republicans, 44% to 41%.

Colorado: No miracle for Michael Bennet in Rasmussen’s new poll: the unelected senator leads trails Republican front-runner Jane Norton by a massive 51% to 37%. That said, Bennet’s favorability rating remains (barely) positive and he should have an easier time to improve his numbers than other incumbents since he is less well-known and thus has more room to grow. And yet, his primary challenger Andrew Romanoff performs far better against Norton since he only trails 45% to 38% - a sign Democrats would be better off dumping the incumbent to start fresh? Both Democrats trail by more narrowly against Republicans Tom Wiens and Ken Buck.

Kentucky: Rasmussen’s monthly Kentucky poll confirms not only that the GOP has gained edge in this open seat (a red state’s electorate naturally gravitates rightward in this environment), but also that Rand Paul would be a far more formidable candidate than had been expected: He leads LG Mongiardo 48% to 37% and AG Conway 47% to 39%. Tray Grayson’s leads are more uneven, as his 49-35 rout over Mongiardo contrasts with his 44-40 lead over Conway. Democrats look like they’d be better off with Conway, whose favorability rating stands at 47-32, than with Mongiardo, whose favorability rating is a mediocre 45-43.

Illinois: Conducted by Rasmussen, The first public poll to test the Illinois Senate race since voters chose their nominees finds Mark Kirk leading Alexi Giannoulias 46% to 40%, a result that contradicts PPP’s recent finding that the Democrat has an 8% lead; note that PPP’s poll was conducted just before Giannoulias was hit by new questions over his family bank, so that might account for some of the difference. In any case, Illinois is one state the DSCC simply cannot afford to lose so Kirk’s early lead is an ugly one for Democrats to see.

Connecticut: Even Rasmussen agrees there is nothing to see in this race since Chris Dodd’s retirement. Thanks to a massive 70% to 26% favorability rating, Richard Blumenthal crushes Rob Simmons 54% to 35% and Linda McMahon 56% to 36%.

New York: I already reported Marist’s Senate survey earlier this week, and Quinnipiac’s poll draws the same lessons: Gillibrand starts with an edge in the Democratic primary but Harold Ford certainly has an opening (Gillibrand is up 36-18 with Tasini at 4) and the incumbent would be favored in the general election against Bruce Blakeman; however, she does not pass 50% in this survey (she leads 44% to 27%), a potential sign Blakeman could still gain traction as he introduces himself.

Arizona: John McCain and John Hayworth both released internal polls of what is shaping up to be a rough primary. As you would expect, the two camps’ numbers tell a different story. Hayworth’s survey (conducted by McLaughlin) has the incumbent leading 49% to 33% while McCain’s survey (conducted by POS) has him up 59% to 30%. Given that there is still a long time to go, that McCain is after all the GOP’s former presidential nominee and that he is better known than Hayworth, the latter set of numbers is also quite underwhelming and signals that the challenger has an opening.

Governor: White within single-digits of Perry, Michigan’s Cox leads

Texas: Since Bill White’s entry in the race, Democrats have been paying more attention to this gubernatorial race but Rasmussen is the first pollster to find a real opening for the Houston Mayor: When matched-up with Governor Rick Perry, he trails 48% to 39% - a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent since he is only up single-digits and remains under 50%. Against Kay Bailey Hutchison, White trails by a larger 49% to 36%. As such, whether the general election will be competitive depends from the outcome of the March-April primary; there is no little doubt White would rather face an incumbent with a mediocre 50-48 approval rating.

New York: David Paterson still looks to be heading towards certain defeat in Marist and Quinnipiac’s new polls. His approval rating stands at 26% in the former and 37% in the latter; that might be an improvement over his low points of 2009, but it leaves him in no position to be competitive against the ultra-popular Andrew Cuomo. Marist shows the Attorney General would crush the Governor by a stunning 70% to 23% in the primary, while Quinnipiac shows the margin to be a comparatively modest 55% to 23%. Both surveys have Paterson struggling against Rick Lazio (he trails by 3% in Marist, leads by 1% in Quinnipiac), while Cuomo crushes the former congressman by 37% and 32%.

Michigan: While some cheered Lieutenant Governor John Cherry’s early January withdrawal as an opportunity to field a stronger candidate, EPIC-MRA’s latest poll finds state Democrats are hardly saved: Attorney General Mike Cox crushes the three Democrats he is matched-up against by margins ranging from 17% to 22%. Yet, Cox is not certain of surviving the primary, since he leads 32% to 25% against Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who does not fare quite as well in the general election: He leads by 17% against Virg Bernero but only by 8% against Andy Dillon and by 7% against Denise Ilitch. The other good news for Democrats is that former GOP Rep. Schwarz is now saying he is 75% certain of running as an independent, which could lead Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Connecticut: Democrats don’t have as clear an edge in this Governor’s race since Susan Bysiewicz dropped out, though they still lead all match-ups in Rasmussen’s new poll: Ned Lamont is up 41-33 against Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele and 40-37 against Tom Foley while while Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy tops the two Republicans by just 1%.

New Hampshire: Governor Lynch is one incumbent Democrats will apparently not have to worry about. In Research 2000’s new poll, he crushes low-profile businessman Kimball 59% to 13%.


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Poll watch: Dems holds edge in Hawaii, GOP leads Senate races in MO, PA and AR

I have avoided spending much talk about the 2012 presidential race, but two new polls released by Fox News and PPP are worth mentioning since they offer quite contrasting takes on the state of Barack Obama’s standing with the electorate - and thus say a lot about the fact that we still have a lot to learn about what the 2010 landscape will look like and also how it will affect 2012. First, Fox has Obama crushing the 3 Republicans that are matched-up against him: 47% against Mitt Romney, 55% to 31% against Sarah Palin and 53% to 29% against Newt Gingrich. PPP, however, has Obama leading David Petraeus 44% to 34%, Palin 49% to 41%, Romney 44% to 42% - but trailing Mike Huckabee 45% to 44%.

I believe PPP’s survey marks the first time Obama has trailed a match-up since early September 2008 - yet another sign of how much the landscape has shifted in recent months. Yet, Fox News’s numbers leave nothing to be desired for the president - and it is striking that both surveys find that it would be a very bad idea for the GOP to nominate Palin.

Meanwhile, a number of important down-ballot polls were released this week. Our first look at HI-01’s special election and at Hawaii’s gubernatorial election, find that Democrats are leading both, while the first Georgia poll since former Governor Roy Barnes announced he wanted his old job back shows that Democrats have a great shot at regaining a Southern governorship. Yet, the news is mostly news for Republicans, as Democratic incumbents trail in Arkansas, Pennsylvania and IN-09. Perhaps the best news for the GOP is that Robin Carnahan has fallen behind for the first time in Missouri’s Senate race.

House

HI-01: Mason Dixon polled the soon-to-be-called special election in HI-01, which Neil Abercrombie is resigning from. Despite the district’s blue bent, Republicans are optimistic about this opportunity for two reasons. First, They believe Charles Djou is a top-tier candidate; second, they’re hoping that the fact that the special election will have no primary can help them pick-up the seat since 2 Democratic candidates will be splitting their party’s vote. Mason Dixon finds neither reason is justified: Djou receives a low 17%, far behind both Democratic candidates - Ed Case is at 35% while Colleen Hanabusa is at 25%. Looks like HI-01 is blue enough that it can accommodate two Democrats without handing itself over to a Republican. But can it accommodate three? Democrats today received the troubling news that state Senator Will Espero was forming an exploratory committee to join the race. If he manages to gain some traction, it would mean that the Democratic vote would split in three, strengthening Djou’s chances of pulling an upset.

NY-01: Rep. Tom Bishop hasn’t faced a competitive race since he won a tough open seat in 2002, but the GOP’s confidence that it can unseat him in 2010 will be boosted by a new SUSA poll showing the incumbent barely holding on 47% to 45% against challenger Randy Altschuler, a businessman with deep pockets. But here’s the deal: Swing State Project noticed that SUSA’s samples include an absurdly low number of 18-34 year olds - just 1% in this survey! In 2008, 17% of the electorate was made up of 18-29 year olds; sure, turnout among young voters will drop a lot next year, but it certainly won’t fall as low as 1% - it stood at 12% in the 2006 midterms, and that’s the 18-29 rather than the 18-34 year-old group we’re talking about. This skew is bound to have major consequences on what the results look like.

IN-09: The fourth survey in the series of FiredogLake/SUSA polls tested Rep. Baron Hill, and I can’t say I expected the Democrat to trail 49% to 41% against Mike Sodrel, who he’s running against for the 5th straight time. If the survey is confirmed (I never have had reason to doubt SUSA, and the sample’s age breakdown is less problematic than it was in the NY-01 poll), it would guarantee that the cycle will be very tough for Democrats: Hill just crushed him by 20% in 2008, and I recently wrote I found it highly unlikely that Sodrel was the GOP’s best bet. Hill is the third Democratic incumbent SUSA found trailing outside of the MoE in the space of two weeks.

Senate

Missouri: In what is one of the clearest polling signs yet that the midterm landscape has dramatically shifted in the GOP’s favor, the Democratic decline is now even affecting Robin Carnahan. Throughout the fall, I had marveled that she was one of the party’s only candidates nationally who had managed to remain stable - but Rasmussen’s latest poll has Roy Blunt leading 49% to 43%. Not only is this the first Rasmussen survey in which Blunt is ahead (Carnahan led by 2% last month), but it is also one of the first polls taken of this race that has one of the candidates’ leading outside of the margin of error. Sure, on paper Missouri is much more certain to be a Republican hold than OH or NH if the environment favors the party, but Carnahan is undoubtedly one of the cycle’s strongest Democratic recruits; if even she has fallen behind 6%, how are Jack Conway or Paul Hodes supposed to remain competitive?

North Carolina: PPP’s first poll of the year shows the same result it found throughout 2009: Senator Richard Burr inspires little passion among his constituents (his approval rating is an unimpressive 36/33, with 31% saying they have no opinion), he is stuck well under 50% of the vote and Secretary of State Elaine Marshall comes closest. Burr leads 44% to 37% against her, 45% to 36% against Cal Cunningham and 46% to 34% against Kenneth Lewis. The good news for the Republican is that his numbers are slightly better than they were last month, as Marshall then only trailed by 5%. But the good news for Democrats is that this is the first time Marshall performs better than a generic Democrat (who is behind 9%). Burr is undoubtedly the cycle’s most (only?) vulnerable Republican incumbent.

Pennsylvania: Rasmussen’s latest poll finds Pat Toomey expanding the leads he had built in the fall and continue to dominate both Arlen Specter (49% to 40%) and Joe Sestak (43% to 35%). While the two Democrats’ margins are similar, it is far more worrisome for an entrenched senator to trail by 9% (a deficit from which few such incumbents can recover) than for a candidate with no statewide profile to do so. As such, Democrats’ best bet to defeat Toomey remains getting rid of Specter - but here lies the party’s problem: Sestak’s primary momentum appears to have completely stalled. Specter now has a 53% to 31% lead, the largest he has received yet in a Rasmussen poll; back in the summer, I would have said this margin is encouraging for the challenger but now that we are 5 months away from Election Day Sestak’s lack of progress is more consequential.

Arkansas: Yet another rough poll for Blanche Lincoln, this time from Mason-Dixon. Not only does the conservative Democrat trail state Senator Gilbert Baker 43% to 39% and her 2004 opponent Jim Holt 43% to 37%, but she can barely manage leads against a series of low-profile Republicans: she’s up 40-39 against Curtis Coleman, 41-38 against Conrad Reynolds, 43-38 against Kim Hendren and 41-38 against Tom Cox. Sure, Mason Dixon’s numbers aren’t quite as brutal for Lincoln as its Nevada polls have been for Reid, but the fact that a two-term incumbent fails to break out of the low 40s obviously a bad sign - one that is sure to fuel speculation that Democrats might try to push Lincoln out; but the poll also suggests that the best way to do that would be convincing her to retire, since she does have a 52% to 34% lead in a potential match-up against Lieutenant Governor Brian Halter. Sure, that’s no insurmountable margin when we’re talking about a primary race, but it’s not like Halter is an unknown figure.

Governor

Georgia: Here’s one Republican-held seat Democrats have an excellent chance of picking-up! Rasmussen’s poll of the general election has former Governor Ray Barnes performing stronger than Georgia Democrats have grown to expect against a trio of Republicans. John Oxendine is narrowly up 44-42 while Rep. Nathan Deal and SoS Karen Handel are both down 43-42. On the other hand, these Republicans lead by margins ranging from 18% to 12% against Attorney General Baker. This is the very first survey of the state taken since Barnes jumped in the race in June 2009. While the dearth of polling has made us forget that the former Governor’s entry in the race is one of Democrats’ best recruitment coups of the cycle, this survey leaves little doubt that Barnes could help his party regain a footing in the South.

Hawaii: Mason Dixon released the very first poll we have seen of this state, and it suggest Republicans have a better shot than I expected to defend the governorship. While both Democratic candidates are clearly ahead, Lieutenant Governor Aiona does manage to stay in contact: he trail 43% to 34% against Rep. Neil Abercrombie, 41% to 35% against Honolulu Mayor Hannemann. The state holds very late primaries (on September 18th), so it will be quite a while before the Aiona has to worry about Democrats turning their fire on him.

California: General Jerry Brown remains favored to regain his old job back, but he cannot take the general election for granted. The latest Field Poll has Meg Whitman cutting her deficit by half to trail 46% to 36%. Given that her name recognition is about half of Brown’s she has room to grow, and it’s not like Democrats can hope for Whitman to be tripped up in her primary: she has opened a huge 45-17 lead Steve Poizner, who faces a 48% to 31% deficit against Brown. Rasmussen also tested this race and it found Brown leading Whitman by a much smaller margin (43% to 39%), though he is ahead of Poizner by 10%; strangely, the poll also has Senator Diane Feinstein, arguably the state’s most towering political figure, lead Whitman only 43-42. (The poll’s trendline is actually positive for Democrats, since Brown and Whitman were tied in November.) Even though Rasmussen’s numbers are out-of-line with other pollsters’ results, there is little doubt that Brown shouldn’t be considered a shoo-in.

Texas: For the first time, Rasmussen tested this race’s general election, which vindicated conventional wisdom. While Houston Mayor Bill White, has a shot at an upset, he does face an uphill climb - and his chances probably depend on the outcome of the Republican primary. While Perry leads White 50% to 40%, Hutchison is ahead by a larger 52% to 37%, which confirms that White’s potential would be greater if he were to face the incumbent. Interestingly, White has a slight lead when matched-up against libertarian Debra Medina 44% to 38%, suggesting Texas voters are willing not to automatically back the Republican.

Colorado: I covered the Senate half of Research 2000’s Colorado poll earlier this week, but they also released gubernatorial numbers that confirm not only that the race will be competitive but also that Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is the strongest of the Democrats who were mentioned as replacements for the retiring Ritter: While Hickenlooper ties probable GOP nominee Scott McInnis at 43%, McInnis has a 2% lead against Ken Salazar (a striking result given Salazar’s statewide profile), a 5% lead over Andrew Romanoff and an 8% lead over Rep. Ed Perlmutter. Here’s further good news for Hickenlooper: Twice as many Democrats as Republicans were undecided in the poll, suggesting he has more room to grow, and he has a slight lead among independents, which is more than can be said of other Democrats across the country.

Maryland: We still have little information on whether former Governor Bob Ehrlich will challenge incumbent Marty O’Malley, but if he does he will start with a 48% to 39% deficit according to a new poll by GOP firm Gonzalez Research; Ehlrich is undoubtedly the only Republican who’d make this race worth watching. The poll also delivers useful confirmation that Barbara Mikulski is one senator Democrats do not have to worry about, since her approval rating stands at 64% to 23%


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An epic polling roundup to get our minds off Massachussetts

Research 2000 and ARG just released two of Massachussetts’s final polls - if not the final polls. ARG found a 7% lead for Brown (52% to 45%), up 4% from where he was just last week. Research 2000, meanwhile, found… a tie: Scott Brown and Martha Coakley receive 48% apiece, a testament to how unpredictable the contest remains heading into Election Day. While at this point any poll that doesn’t have Brown ahead is a relief for Democrats, I don’t have to tell you that even that survey is rough for Coakley: Just last week, Research 2000 found her ahead by 8%, which makes this yet another poll to found stunning momentum for the Republican.

Yet, Research 2000 also confirms the hypothesis I enunciated this morning, as an update to last night’s post: Coakley performs better in polls that include Libertarian nominee Joe Kennedy, who will be on the ballot tomorrow. Pajamas Media and PPP, which gave Brown large leads yesterday, did not include Kennedy at all; surveys that have the race within the margin of error do include Kennedy, who for instance receives 3% in Research 2000. There’s every reason to believe that Kennedy is drawing his voters from the conservative camp, so if the race is close his presence on the ballot could allow Coakley to shave off a few points off Brown compared to PPP’s survey. (ARG’s website appears to be down, so I cannot determine whether they included him.)

It’s hard to think of anything but Massachussetts, but let’s try to do just that: Over the past week, there was so much news to cover that I ignored an avalanche of polls, to which I’ll now get to. Now that we’ve entered 2010, there will be more and more surveys released weekly - even daily - so I will obviously not attempt to cover each one in as much detail as I did over the past year; I will however start with polls that are testing election we’ve seen little data on. Today, those consist in 3 House districts and 2 Western Governor’s races.

(Yes, this is a fairly long post… but I let polls accumulate without covering them for more than a week, so I wanted to get to them all at once to make sure I can focus on Massachussetts and other important news after this!)

Three House races find mixed results for Dems

NC-08: PPP managed to find a freshman Democrat from a swing district with solid standing! In NC-08, a district that swung from Bush to Obama, not only does Rep. Larry Kissell have a strong approval rating (45% to 30%), but he displays no sign of vulnerability in three match-ups against his challengers, leading Lou Huddleston 55% to 37%, Tom D’Annunzio 54% to 38%, Hal Jordan 55% to 39% and Harold Johnson 53% to 39%. Sure, none of these Republicans have much name recognition, but consider all the polls we have seen recently in which incumbent Democrats have struggled to mount any sort of lead against unknown opponents. Yet, not only is Kissell up big but he’s also topping 50%.

ND-AL: The DCCC is relieved Rep. Earl Pomeroy decided to seek re-election, but it doesn’t mean he is a shoo-in to win another term. A new poll by Research 2000 finds him solidly ahead of all of his competitors Kevin Cramer and Duane Sand, but he fails to clear 50% against either. (He’s ahead 46-24 and 47-22, respectively.) This is all the more problematic when you consider that Republicans are 5 times more likely to be undecided than Democrats, so the GOP candidates have a lot of room to grow once they introduce themselves, and the NRCC especially has hope in Cramer (North Dakota Public Service Commissioner). In short: Pomeroy has a good standing and he is clearly favored to win re-election, but he is not safe.

OH-01: If Kissell and Pomeroy look strong, Rep. Steve Driehaus is sinking according to a SUSA poll commissioned by FiredogLake. We already knew that this freshman Democrat was one of the most endangered of the cycle (he is facing a rematch against the Republican he ousted in 2008, and OH-01 is a district with a substantial African-American population, so a drop in black turnout compared to the past cycle would be particularly hurtful to his chances), but SUSA’s numbers are uglier than even optimistic Republicans surely expected: Driehaus trails 39% to 56% for former Rep. Steve Chabot. I don’t need to tell you the odds that an incumbent who trails by 17% might win re-election. (Coincidentally, this is the same exact margin SUSA found against Rep. Vic Snyder on Friday.)

An unexpected Dem opportunity in UT, door is closing in OK

Utah: Democrats were excited at Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Coroon’s decision to challenge Governor Herbert, and a Deseret News poll confirms that Coroon could make the race well-worth watching: Herbert leads 48% to 35%, down from his 56-32 lead back in November. There’s no question that Herbert is heavily favored, but Coroon does represent one third of the state’s population in a capacity that ensures he is a visible presence. At the very least, Coroon’s presence on the ballot could help Democrats ensure that Rep. Jim Matheson isn’t a victim of any potential red wave.

Oklahoma: Whatever Oklahoma’s staunchly conservative status, Democrats had enough of a bench they were expecting to mount a highly competitive bid to defend the state’s governorship. (Governor Henry is term-limited.) Yet, a Tulsa News poll finds that Lieut. Gov. Jari Askins and Attorney General Drew Edmonson are no match for Rep. Mary Fallin; despite their strong favorability rating (Edmonson’s stands at 51-31), they trail the Republican 52% to 36% and 51% to 39%, respectively. A former Lieutenant Governor, Fallin is well-known and popular (54% to 29%). Democrats shouldn’t entirely give up, but the race most certainly leans Republican.

Connecticut and North Dakota won’t be competitive

From the moment Senators Byron Dorgan and Chris Dodd retired two weeks ago, we have known that the races to replace them are unlikely to be competitive. Three new poll confirm that John Hoeven and Richard Blumenthal are very heavily favored to be sworn into the Senate come January 2011.

North Dakota: Richard 2000 finds Hoeven leading 56% to 32% against Ed Schulz, 55% to 34% against former AG Heidi Heitkamp and 56% to 32% against Jasper Schneider. Sure, Hoeven’s lead doesn’t quite reach “overwhelming” status, but looking at the internals it’s hard to see a path to victory for whoever Democrats nominate: There are few undecideds, including among Democratic voters; Hoeven enjoys near unanimous support among Republicans; and he has daunting leads among independents.

Connecticut: We’ve already seen a few surveys displaying Blumenthal’s dominance, but over the past 5 days Quinnipiac and Research 2000 both released surveys confirming it. In Research 2000, Blumenthal leads Rob Simmons 54% to 35%, Linda McMahon 56% to 34% and Peter Schiff 56% to 33%. In Quinnipiac, whose brutal numbers for Dodd were as responsible for driving the narrative of his doom than those of any other pollster, his leads are gigantic: 62% to 27% against Simmons, 64% to 23% against McMahon, 66% to 19% against Schiff. Everything can happen if Democrats aren’t careful (see neighboring Massachussetts), but Blumenthal isn’t Martha Coakley.

CO, NH, NV, OH: 4 key Senate races, 7 rough polls for Senate Democrats.

Ohio: Democrats led this open race for much of 2009, but Rasmussen’s new poll is its second in a row to find Rob Portman has grabbed the edge. He leads Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 37% and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 43% to 40%. These numbers are very interesting because the Democratic establishment holds Fisher to be a stronger candidate; yet, Portman increased his lead against Fisher whilelosing ground against Brunner! Overall, then, the two parties are roughly where they were in early December.

Colorado: This week, we received three surveys testing Colorado, which until this week an underpolled state:

  • Rasmussen has by far the worst set of results for Democrats: Senator Michael Bennet trails former Lieut. Gov. 49% to 37%, and he’s also behind lower-profile Tom Wiens (44% to 38%) and Ken Buck (43% to 38%). Former Speaker Andrew Romanoff trails Norton and Wiens by the same margin but is only behind Buck by 1%.
  • In response to these ugly numbers, Bennet released an internal poll, which might have found better results but he is still behind Jane Norton, 43% to 40%.
  • Finally, just this afternoon Research 2000 released the best news Bennet has received in quite some time: Bennet leads Norton 40% to 39%, Buck 41% to 38% and Wiens 42% to 38%; Romanoff trails Norton by 2% but leads Buck and Wiens by 1% and 2%.

There is quite a lot of disparity between these three surveys, and Bennet’s camp will be delighted that he finally manages a lead in a poll - even if it’s well within the MoE. That said, it is clear from all of these surveys that Bennet is stuck at 40% - a dismal place for an incumbent to be, even an appointed one. Colorado remains a major problem for Democrats.

New Hampshire: Another tough Rasmussen poll, since it shows that what once looked like a Democratic-leaning open seat might now be leaning Republican: Attorney General Kelly Ayotte leads Rep. Paul Hodes 49% to 40%. (This is roughly the same margin Rasmussen found in September.) Hodes does led lower-profile Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Bill Binnie 45% to 38% and 43% to 37%, respectively. This is

Nevada: With everyone now aware that Harry Reid is one of the Democrats’ most vulnerable senators, there’s been speculation that the party might try to convince him to pull a Chris Dodd, as in retire for the good of the party. But a new poll released last week revealed that Democrats don’t have a Blumenthal-like savior:

  • PPP found Harry Reid trailing Sue Lowden 51% to 41% and Danny Tarkanian 50% to 42% - very ugly margins for a longtime senator against second-tier challengers. Yet, the Republicans enjoy similar margins against other Democrats! Rep. Shelly Berkley trails by 8% against both; Rose Miller trails by 10% and 11%, respectively. Only Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman manages to stay on an equal footing: he ties Tarkanian at 41%, leads Lowden 42% to 40%.
  • If PPP’s numbers were ugly, how can we describe Rasmussen’s? Here, Reid is crushed Lowden 48% to 36% and Tarkanian 50% to 36%! He manages to stay close to former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, but even here he’s stuck at 40%, trailing 44% to 40%.

If polls showing other Democrats doing better than Reid started piling up, the party could hope to convince him to retire; but PPP’s survey cuts that hope short (Research 2000 will also soon release a similar poll), which allows Republicans to feel increasingly confident about picking-up Nevada.

OH, NV and MA: 3 key Governor’s races, three tough polls for Dems

Ohio: If Ted Strickland started 2009 as the clear favorite, he starts 2010 trailing former Rep. John Kasich. Rasmussen finds him trailing 47% to 40%, which is actually a 2% improvement over December’s numbers. Other surveys have found a closer race, but there’s no question that Strickland is in for a very tough battle.

Nevada: Rory Reid is in as much trouble as his father, only the position they’re vying for is different. Sure, Reid manages to lead incumbent Governor Jim Gibbons 43% to 36% in Mason Dixon’s poll, but considering that Gibbons is even more unpopular (his favorability rating is 18% to 53%) than David Paterson that doesn’t mean much; the favorite to win the Republican nomination, Brian Sandoval, crushes Reid 53% to 31%! In a three-way race involving Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, who is considering running as an independent, Sandoval and Goodman are close (35% to 33% for the former), with 20% for Reid. There’s no mystery as to why: Reid’s favorability rating is 25% to 35%, Goodman’s 43-15 and Sandoval’s 36-5. Hard to explain Reid’s numbers by anything but his last name.

Massachussetts: Two new polls confirm that Martha Coakley isn’t the only struggling Massachussetts Democrat:

  • PPP shows that Governor Deval Patrick has a dismal approval rating of just 22%. In three-way races involving Treasurer Tom Cahill (as an independent) and one of his 2 Republican opponents, Patrick is ahead but he receives less than 30% (!) and leads whoever is in second place by just 2% or 3%. In both match-ups, the 3 candidates are within 8%.
  • The Boston Globe poll is more favorable to Patrick: His favorability rating is a bad but not horrendous 39/50 and his leads over Cahill are a bit larger. If the GOP nominee is Charlie Baker, Patrick receives 30, Cahill 23% and Baker 19%; if the GOP nominee is Mihos, the numbers are 32, 23 and 19 for Mihos.

Much will depend on how Cahill positions his campaign. A former Democrat, he has been inching closer to the right since announcing he would run as an independent, for instance asking a conservative Republican state legislator to join his ticket.

Democrats’ silver lining is definitely Connecticut

Not only did Chris Dodd’s retirement all but guarantee Democrats will save Connecticut’s Senate seat, but Research 2000 shows they can look forward to in the Governor’s race - and also the 2012 Senate contest. Susan Bysiewicz, who just dropped out of the race last week, was in a very strong position: she led Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele 52% to 33%, Tom Foley 51% to 35% and Mark Boughton 52% to 32%. But the Democrats left in the race look solid as well: Ned Lamont leads 46-36, 46-37 and 46-34 while Dan Malloney is up 44-35, 43-37 and 44-34, respectively.

Research 2000 also tested the 2012 Senate race. In a two-way general election match-up between Joe Lieberman and Chris Murphy, the representative leads the independent senator 45% to 26% - it’s quite stunning to see such a longtime senator fail to receive more than a quarter of the vote. Not only does Murphy crush Lieberman among Democrats (71% to 20%), but also among independents (41% to 22%). Democrats might fear a lot of losses in 2010, but at least Lieberman looks to have too low support to have much hope to win re-election in 2012.


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Hickenlooper in, Bysiewicz out

For years, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has been passing countless opportunities to run for open seats. He finally decided that this was his year; that’s a curious choice considering ambitious Democrats have generally been trying to avoid running in 2010, but his party isn’t going to argue since it gives them a prominent candidate to field in Colorado’s Governor’s race.

Governor Bill Ritter’s unexpected withdrawal left a void in the Democratic ticket. The opportunity to replace him wasn’t quite as promising as that of swapping Chris Dodd for Richard Blumenthal, but given Ritter’s low approval ratings the party had more to gain than to lose. With Hickenlooper, Democrats have almost certainly improved their chances to hold on to the nomination considering that the two-term mayor has a strong statewide standing: back in December 2008, a poll that tested him in potential Senate match-ups found him crushing former Governor Bill Owens by double-digits. I am not aware of any other recent poll testing him but Research 2000 is currently in the field in Colorado, so we won’t have to wait long.

(Note that Hickenlooper cannot be sure he’ll have the Democratic field for himself: former state Speaker Andrew Romanoff is still considering switching from the Senate race, where he is challenging Bennet in the primary, to the Governor’s race.)

Republicans tend to relish attacking statewide candidates who are either from Boulder or from Denver, two cities that are more liberal than the state-at-large. (You might remember that saying Mark Udall was a “Boulder Democrat” was in-and-of itself considered an attack during the 2008.) Yet, Denver has nearly 600,000 inhabitants while its metropolitan area makes up more than half of Colorado’s population. Mayors are often better-known (and often better-liked) than other political officials, and Hickenlooper has been leading Denver for the past six years. If he manages to perform as well or better among voters who’ve been following him closely for the past than recent Democratic candidates who aren’t from Denver (Salazar, Udall and of course Obama), he would be sure to be competitive.

As such, Hickenlooper’s entry guarantees Democrats remain relevant in this crucial race - and this should have repercussions far beyond the question of who controls the state’s Governor’s Mansion. Senator Michael Bennet has never faced an election, he is still largely unknown and as of now he hasn’t displayed a particular ability to energize any voters, let alone a depressed Democratic base; had his part had suffered recruitment setbacks in the Governor’s race and had they settled on a lower-tier candidate, it would have raised troublesome questions as to who could carry the Democratic flag and draw voters to the poll next fall. Whatever Hickenlooper’s ultimate fate (as of now, a general election match-up against Republican Scott McInnis can only be called a toss-up), the presence of a well-known Democrat on the ballot has to be a relief for all the party’s other nominees down-ballot.

Another consideration is that Hickenlooper has a more moderate profile than other state Democrats; when we were speculating as to who would be appointed to Ken Salazar’s seat, Hickenlooper was considered a more conservative option than Democrats like Ed Permutter - and certainly than liberals like Diana DeGette. How will that impact the Democratic ticket considering that Bennet also has a centrist profile? Furthermore, Hickenlooper has had a rough relationship with unions; we’ll have to see how that affects how interests unions are in helping out Democrats in Colorado. Considering the party is facing turnout problems, it certainly cannot afford losing out on labor’s help.

If Democrats gained a prominent candidate in Colorado today, they’re also losing a formidable gubernatorial contender in Connecticut: Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz had arguably become the front-runner ever since Jodi Rell announced her retirement, which made today’s reports that she was preparing to drop out to run in the newly-open Attorney General race instead all the more surprising!

Indeed, this is one withdrawal we can’t link to a fear about a tough environment: Just last week, a poll was released that showed Bysiewicz crushing her Republican rivals by 25% and 22%. She was also in a strong position in the Democratic primary; though she did face tough competition (the most recent Quinnipiac poll had her leading Ned Lamont 26% to 23%, with Dan Malloy in single-digits), she never expected to have the field for herself since Malloy was always sure of running. More puzzling still: it’s not like Bysiewicz will have an easy time in the Attorney General race. She’ll have to face former state Senate Majority Leader George Jepsen, who is close to current-Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal.

Bysiewicz’s exit leaves three Democrats to battle it out: 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont, former House Speaker James Amann and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy. While all three would be strong general election contenders against Lieut. Gov. Michael Fedele and former Ambassador Tom Foley, last week’s PPP poll did suggest that none would be as formidable as Bysiewicz; Lamont and Malloy’s leads were half as large as Bysiewicz’s.

Also, a good point from Politico: If Bysiewicz wins the Attorney General race, Democrats are likely to remember the strong poll numbers she enjoyed over the past few months when they look for someone to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012.

A third and last important story about Democratic gubernatorial candidates comes to us from Rep. Stupak (yes, that Stupak) is now actively mulling the possibility that he might run for Governor in Michigan. That would probably leave everyone in his party unhappy, since the DCCC would have another tough open seat to defend while state Democrats would have to deal with one of liberals’ biggest looking villain looking to represent them. I’ll wait for Stupak to make up his mind to delve more into this possibility.


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In now unsettled Gov races, can Hickenlooper & Dillon impose themselves to Dems?

Besides Dodd, Dorgan and Ritter, Tuesday saw a fourth major Democratic drop-out: Lieutenant Governor John Cherry ended his gubernatorial campaign in Michigan.

The party’s presumptive nominee since the beginning of the cycle, Cherry had long looked like he would take Democrats off the cliff. On paper, it seemed obvious that Cherry would have trouble appealing to voters who are eager to turn the page of the unpopular Jennifer Granholm administration but the decisiveness of the deficits he faced against all Republicans in 2009 polls was nonetheless surprising. On Tuesday, Cherry took care of his party’s dilemma by taking it upon himself to drop out of the race. (Interestingly, there has been little buzz of Cherry facing pressure from the national party, the way Barbara Lawton did and the way David Paterson is.)

From an overall perspective on the cycle, Cherry’s decision (just like Dodd and Ritter’s withdrawals) is an indication of just how much Democratic fortunes have fallen over the past 12 months. But Democrats are certainly relieved at his decision, which allows them to hope for a candidate who could campaign as an outsider and have a better shot at holding this crucial governorship.

Michigan’s situation is closer to Colorado’s than to Connecticut’s: Democrats have no miracle solution, no formidable heir apparent waiting in the wings whose mere entry will take care of the party’s trouble. That’s obviously not surprising, since the latter is a blue state while Colorado is a swing state and Michigan, while leaning Democratic, has always been competitive; but it’s important to point out that no one is under the illusion that Cherry’s withdrawal means Democrats are suddenly favored to win this open race. In fact, the state’s particularly dismal economic situation combined with the strength of the GOP field keeps Republicans as slight favorites.

Unlike even Colorado, in fact, Democrats aren’t likely to coalesce around a single candidate. The politician who’s name pops up the most is state Speaker Andy Dillon, a moderate who has drawn the pronounced hostility labor groups. In a union-heavy state like Michigan, that should not only make it tricky for him to win the Democratic primary but it would also mean trouble in the general election. The party will have enough trouble turning out its base as it is; if unions put in a weaker-than-usual effort to drive up turnout because they do not trust the man at the top of the Democratic ticket, it would be a headache for Democrats up and down the ballot. (Dillon is also pro-life, though I’m not sure how that might play out.)

Dillon is doing his best to impose himself as Cherry’s obvious heir apparent. Not only was his name floating throughout 2009, but he is the first to make his move since the Lieutenant Governor’s departure: He announced today that he was forming an exploratory committee. Yet, Dillon will probably not be able to become the clear front-runner. For one, state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, former state Rep. John Freeman and Flint Mayor Don Williamson were already in the race before Cherry departed, and while they were clear underdogs Dillon is a less formidable figure. Candidates who could still get in include Lansing mayor Virg Bernero and MSU trustee George Perles. It will be interesting to see whether unions try to coordinate rallying around a single opponent to Cherry.

Over in the other gubernatorial race that was thrown in turmoil on Tuesday, Democrats look like they’re preparing to rally around the candidate that had always looked like their strongest bet - though not in the Blumenthal sense.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar made up his mind quicker than I expected: He will not run for Governor, even though this seems to have been his career-long dream. Contrary to what we are reading in some quarters, I believe this is is good news as there is no evidence Salazar would have been their best option - let alone that he is popular. While he won his Senate seat in a tough environment in 2004, his opponent was not the most formidable of Republicans and heading into the 2010 cycle (where he would have been up for re-election) Salazar’s approval rating was not impressive. While it’s impossible to know how vulnerable he would have been had he not moved to Washington, he was in the GOP’s cross hairs. In short: he was no savior.

Salazar’s exit paves the way for Democrats to rally aorund Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper… if he agrees to get in. While Hickenlooper has been at the top of Democrats’ wish-list every two years for all the open seats that have popped up this decade, he’s passed on every opportunity. Will 2010 be different? Signs suggest that he is likely to run: Not only did he issue a statement yesterday announcing he would take a hard look at jumping in if Salazar does not, but the Interior Secretary himself urged the mayor to run in the statement he released today.

We can talk more about Hickenlooper’s strengths and weaknesses if he does run, but we can already cite a poll Rasmussen hurriedly conducted in the aftermath of Ritter’s announcement: It shows the Denver Mayor is the strongest nominee Democrats can turn to. But the bad news for his party is that Scott McInnis has a lead in all three potential match-ups: 45% to 42% against Hickenlooper (which is within the MoE), 47% to 41% against Salazar and 47% to 37% against Andrew Romanoff.

That shouldn’t obscure the fact that Hickenlooper’s favorability rating (57%) positions him to rally a broader electorate than Ritter, plagued by a negative approval rating (44-52). Even if Hickenlooper loses to McInnis, he should be able to keep the race close and thus be of help to his party’s Senate prospects.


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In day’s third big bombshell, Governor Bill Ritter drops re-election bid

21! There will be 21 open Governor’s race in the 2010 cycle, 4 of which will be due to voluntary retirements rather than to term-limits. The latest chief executive to join the ranks of retirees is the most stunning yet: Colorado’s first-term Governor Bill Ritter is set to announce today that he will not seek re-election this fall.

Last night, some pointed out that I lost sight of the big picture when commenting on Chris Dodd’s retirement, and I think that might be right. I don’t mean that I should have addressed the possibility that so many high-profile Democrats calling it quits in a single day will create a damaging narrative for the party (at this point, it’s become conventional wisdom that Democrats are facing the prospect of tough losses), but that I should place these decisions in the context of the entire cycle: We have gotten so used to the fact that Dodd and Ritter suffered from dismal approval ratings that we forget that at the start of 2009, no one could have foreseen that Dodd, Ritter or Byron Dorgan would have trouble securing additional terms in 2010.

All three looked like very popular incumbents, two of them veteran lawmakers and the third having enjoyed a landslide victory in 2006. By this week, we knew that both Ritter and Dodd were a weight on Democrats so their retirements are good developments for their party because they allow the nomination of more electable candidates; but from the perspective of where we stood in early 2009, their decisions confirm just how much the electoral landscape has shifted over the past 12 months. Anyone who reads this blog is obviously aware of that, but it’s still important to keep in mind.

This said, the bottom line is that most incumbent governors have become liabilities for their party: states are bearing the grunt of the recession, and governors have to deal with their states’ fiscal crises. That makes them unexpectedly vulnerable heading into 2010, which is obvious not only in Democratic-controlled states (Iowa, Ohio and also Colorado) but also in Republican-controlled states (polls suggest that Charlie Crist’s collapse is not just due to criticism from the right, but also from the decline of his approval rating that mirrors that of other governors). As such, PPP found Ritter leading Scott McInnis by a 49% to 36% margin; in August and again in November, PPP had him trailing by 5%. In the meantime, McInnis didn’t mount a campaign and he didn’t increase his name recognition; that dramatic 18% shift is entirely due to a change in Ritter’s fortunes.

As such, it’s unclear whether Ritter would have been able to ever be truly competitive against McInnis: All polls taken over the past 6 months find him stuck around the 40% mark, which raises obvious questions as to an incumbent’s electability. (Jon Corzine, anyone? And that was in New Jersey.) His exit gives Democrats a chance to start anew.

To be sure, the situation in no way compares to that of Connecticut. For one, Colorado is a swing state in which independents who swung to the left in 2008 have no long history of voting Democratic, so a tough environment would have disastrous consequences for the party in this state. Second, Democrats have no Blumenthal-like savior. But while they have no savior, Democrats have a solid bench nonetheless: Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper probably tops Democrats’ wish list, but former Speaker Andrew Romanoff is also considering the race; other possibilities include members of the congressional delegation (Democrats control 5 out of 7 House seats). Many of these politicians could mount strong campaigns.

This open race starts as a toss-up, and unless a really strong red wave submerges the country it will probably remain a toss-up.

(You hopefully recognized Romanoff’s name: He is currently challenging appointed Senator Michael Bennet in the Senate race’s Democratic primary. His exit would thus guarantee Bennett can move to the general election, which I am not sure is good news for Democrats since there are big questions for now as to whether he will be able to defend the seat. On the other hand, Democrats’ prospects of holding the Senate seat could be improved by the possibility that they’ll have stronger candidate heading the ballot: A Ritter-Bennet ticket would have been very unlikely to inspire many Democrats.)

On the Republican side, McInnis is a solid candidate for Republicans: He is certainly not the youngest and most fresh of candidates, but he is well-connected and experienced enough to take full advantage of any GOP advantage in the environment. That said, it will be interesting to see whether others join McInnis in the primary. You might remember that the GOP took great care of showing off its unity in late 2009 as Tom Tancredo and Josh Penry dropped their bids to rally by the former representative, so it’s tough to see them reconsidering; but might Attorney General John Suthers be interesting in running for the open seat? Another possibility is former Rep. Bob Beauprez, who was once vocal about his interest in running for something but has been very discreet for the past few months.

There’s a lot more to be said about Colorado. And about Michigan. And about New York. And about Connecticut and North Dakota. (How did everything happen within 12 hours?) But I am now heading out for a day-long trip… so it will all have to wait. If I get Internet while waiting for my connecting flight, I’ll try to get to the latest in CT and ND (or to any other bombshells that might have occur in the next few hours).


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Poll watch: Rubio ties Crist, Marshall within 5% of Burr, GOP leads 3 key Governor’s races

With 9 months to go, Rubio has already tied Crist

As soon as Marco Rubio made it clear he would stick to the Senate race, it was clear that Florida’s Republican primary had the potential to be explosive. But who expected him to gain enough traction to make his race with Charlie Crist a toss-up before we even entered 2010? There is still 9 months to the primary, but the former state Speaker has for the first time tied in the Governor in a public poll: Rasmussen finds the two at 43%.

Until now Rasmussen’s poll numbers have not been excessively positive for Rubio. In August, Crist led by 29% in Quinnipiac and 23% in Rasmussen; in October, Crist led by 15% in Quinnipiac and by 14% in Rasmussen. We have yet to receive a Quinnipiac survey this month, but it shall be very interesting to see whether that pollster will continue finding the same trend as Rasmussen. For now, we can certainly say that there is a lot of evidence that the Governor’s fortunes have collapsed.

Somewhat surprisingly, Crist’s favorability rating among Republicans remains overwhelmingly positive (61% to 38%) but that also means he is far from having hit rock bottom: As conservative groups start pouring in millions to portray him as unprincipled, liberal and/or too friendly to Obama, Crist should see his numbers continue to drop and he’ll have to ensure his campaign isn’t as hapless over the next 9 months as it’s been since the summer. Crist has spent little time engaging Rubio, which has allowed the conservative to build strong popularity among Republicans (64% to 15%); the Governor has plenty of money and institutional support to ensure Rubio’s numbers take a dive.

Two polls find Burr under 50%, vulnerable against Marshall

Richard Burr’s poll numbers have been low ever since the cycle began and two new polls confirm he has a lot of work to do to ensure his re-election. PPP finds his approval rating is plagued by two worrisome signs: For one, it is in negative territory (35/37); second, an unusually large share of voters don’t know him well enough to have an opinion. That also translates to Burr polling at weak levels in match-ups. Against a generic Democrat, he leads 41% to 40% while he is up 42% to 37% against Elaine Marshall. In the Civitas poll, Burr is ahead by a larger margin but he is even further away from the 50% threshold, since he leads 40% to 32%.

While Burr’s numbers are stronger than those many Democratic incumbents are facing, they still point to his being vulnerable - as is any incumbent who is stuck in the low 40s. In fact, given the name recognition differential between Burr and Marshall (69% of respondents don’t have an opinion of her), she has room to grow and her 5% deficit could be smaller still: While only 13% of Republicans undecided, 24% of Democrats and 25% of African-Americans say the same.

Despite the lack of evidence Marshall faces any electability problem, the DSCC is committed to defeating her so let’s look at her rivals’ numbers: PPP finds that Kenneth Lewis trails Burr 43% to 37% while Cunningham is behind 45% to 36%. That’s right, the candidate the DSCC is reportedly mulling spending millions on is polling at a weaker level than two other contenders - and it’s not like this can be explained by a difference in name recognition: 81% of respondents have no opinion of Cunningham, 80% of Lewis and 69% of Marshall.

Sure, the difference between the candidates’ performances is too small to draw overarching conclusions, but let me repeat that the DSCC is considering mulling spending millions helping Cunningham in the Democratic primary. I remain on the lookout for a coherent argument as to why he would be the most formidable general election candidate when he has neither name recognition, nor an obvious fundraising network, nor statewide experience - not to mention that Marshall is in a good position herself and that Cunningham’s policy positions are less of a fit with the Democratic base’s preferences.

GOP leads 3 key gubernatorial races

A week after releasing an avalanche of surveys finding Democrats in trouble in Senate races, Rasmussen finds Republicans ahead in 3 key Governor’s contests; here again, Rasmussen’s numbers might be friendlier to the GOP than the polling average but they do not substantially differ from other numbers we have seen from pollsters like Quinnipiac and PPP:

  • In Colorado, former Rep. Scott McInnis ensured his hold on the GOP nomination by pushing out John Penry and Tom Tancredo, and he starts with a solid 48% to 40% edge over Governor Bill Ritter. Rasmussen also tested Penry, who trails Ritter 41% to 40%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Attorney General Tom Corbett is by far the best-known candidate, but his name recognition advantage cannot by itself account for his huge leads over the entirety of the crowded Democratic field: He crushes Auditor Jack Wagner 43% to 30%, former Rep. Joe Hoeffel 48% to 26%, Dan Ornato 44% to 28% and Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty 46% to 23%.
  • In Florida, Attorney General Bill McCollum leads CFO Alex Sink 44% to 39%. That’s actually an improvement for the Democrat, who trailed by 11% in Rasmussen’s October survey. That poll now seems like an outlier, since Research 2000 and Quinnipiac recently found McCollum leading by 2% and 4%, respectively. As always, the Republican enjoys higher name recognition which suggests that the race should be a complete toss-up once Sink introduces herself to Democratic voters.

For all of the Democrats’ woes in the first two states, where they are also struggling in the Senate races, the party also received some good news: They have gained an edge in party registration in Colorado for the first time in years, so the gains they posted in the 2006-2008 period not only haven’t reversed themselves but they’ve somewhat surprisingly continued. The challenge for Democrats is now to ensure these voters turn out.


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Rasmussen showers Senate Dems with troubling polls: GOP leads in 5 Dem-held seats

In the heels of his polls from Connecticut, Ohio and Pennsylvania’s Senate races, which he released earlier this week, Rasmussen conducted surveys from other states, finding worrisome signs for Democrats across the board. It speaks to this year’s reversal of fortunes that the best news the party can muster is that Lee Fisher (who was in the lead for much of the year) is staying afloat in Ohio while Alexi Giannoulias has pulled ahead to a lead within the MoE in staunchly blue Illinois.

Put all of this together, and we find that this week Rasmussen has released polls of 5 Senate races Dems are defending in which Republican candidates lead at least one match-up: Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania. (And that still leaves out Arkansas and Delaware, which get us to 7 highly endangered Democratic seats.) On the other hand, the trendline are positive for Democrats in some of these polls, suggesting that the party might have already hit rock-bottom in some of these states; in particular, Rasmussen’s poll is I believe the ever to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead over Mark Kirk!

Let’s start by stating what needs to be said from the get go: Rasmussen’s results have been more favorable to Republicans than any other pollster’s all year, so these surveys represent the worse of the spectrum of possibilities for Democrats. Yet, it would be a mistake for Democrats to dismiss these results as outliers. First, the consistency with which Rasmussen’s results are skewed to the right means that the discrepancy is due to differing turnout models (and there is for now little evidence with which to say that theirs is wrong). Second, Rasmussen’s results are increasingly less divergent with those of other pollsters; PPP, Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon have all recently found similar results in states like NV, PA and OH.

Colorado

Colorado is one state that has been so underpolled that we haven’t had a good idea of the incumbent’s vulnerability. This week, Rasmussen gave us a rare look into Michael Bennet’s prospects - and things look very ugly for the senator, who trails three Republicans challengers: 46% to 37% against former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, 42% to 41% against former state Senator Tom Wiens and 42% to 38% against District Attorney Ken Buck. In September, Rasmussen had Bennett leading Buck by 4% - and that was a more favorable result to the Democrat than PPP’s August survey.

Weighed down by a negative favorability rating (39-46), Bennet looks very vulnerable: I don’t have to tell for any incumbent to be stuck at 40% or to trail against opponents who are as low-profile statewide as Wiens and Buck is a dismal showing. Complicating matters is that state Speaker Andrew Romanoff is performing at similar levels: He faces a slightly larger deficit against Norton (45% to 34%), a slightly smaller one against Buck (41% to 39%) and the same one against Wiens (41% to 40%). Given that Romanoff is not an incumbent, that he can appeal to undecided voters as an outsider and that he has a positive name recognition, he is certainly in a position to make the case that he is more electable than Bennet. (A reminder: Bennet has neverĀ  before faced voters in any election.)

Nevada

Harry Reid might face smaller deficits, but his position is arguably far shakier than Bennet because he has far less room to grow as en entrenched incumbent and because his favorability rating is truly atrocious (40% to 57%). Furthermore, he trails former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle 47% to 43% in the very first survey testing her candidacy; a staunch conservative, Angle is reputed the weakest of Reid’s potential opponents so that the senator cannot even muster a lead against her is an ugly sign. Furthermore, Reid trails both Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian 49% to 43%.

The good news for Reid is that he has improved his numbers from Rasmussen’s prior poll of the race: In September, he trailed Lowden by 10% and Tarkanian by 7%, so perhaps his early efforts to improve his image have yielded results. Furthermore, the fact that the results are the same whoever Reid’s opponent confirms that voters aren’t voting Republican because they are enamored with any of the choices but only because of how much they have grown to dislike their senator; unfortunately for Reid, it won’t be easy for him to take advantage of that fact since he is too well-known to easily escape having this race be a referendum on his tenure.

Illinois

Democrats face far less of an uphill climb here, but Illinois is so blue that the party has nothing to boast about consideirng Rep. Mark Kirk’s competitive results: The Republican congressman, who has a stronger favorability rating than any of the 3 Democratic candidates, is within the margin of error in all match-ups. He trails Alexi Giannoulias 42% to 39%, leads Cheryle Jackson 42% to 39% and leads Dave Hoffman 42% to 38%. Just as in Nevada, Democrats can take some comfort in the trendline: Rasmussen’s summer poll had Kirk leading by 3%, while the October survey had a tie.

In fact, I believe this might be the first survey to find Giannoulias with any sort of lead because PPP’s only survey also had a tie while an internal GOP poll had the Republican leading by 7% earlier in October. This could due to the fact that Democrats are occupying airwaves right now: Their primary, which is coming up in February, is more obviously competitive, and Giannoulias and Hoffman are already up on air. (I don’t believe the same is true for Kirk.) Another reassuring nugget for Democrats is that Barack Obama’s approval rating remains strong in his home state (58% to 42%), so Republicans still have to show they can convince state voters to go against their usual party loyalty.


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Greg Walden and Tom Tancredo rule out gubernatorial runs

Late last week, Rep. Greg Walden announced that he would run for re-election, a blow to Republican chances of contesting Oregon’s gubernatorial race. In his absence, the GOP primary will be headlined by entrepreneur Allen Alley and by former state Senator John Lim; former NBA player Chris Dudley has formed an exploratory committee, so he could still jump in.

Walden had long since entertained the possibility that he could run for statewide, which would have given the GOP a high-profile recruit against the Democratic primary’s all-star cast: former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury and former Governor John Kitzhaber are going head-to-head, while Rep. Peter DeFazio has yet to rule out jumping in the race. (Conventional wisdom is still one of skepticism that DeFazio might abandon his relatively safe and increasingly influential position in the House for such a difficult tough primary; but every time state observers are preparing to cross him out, the progressive Democrat is reiterating his interest in the race and insisting he could still jump in.)

Whoever Democrats nominate will now be clearly favored in the general election. That’s not to say that Republicans won’t have a shot at victory, but it will be an uphill climb. Lim is now 73 (rarely an age at which a candidate can be so gripping as to get voters to go against their traditional allegiances), while Dudley will have to demonstrate he has the political skills necessary to be taken seriously by voters (there are plenty of examples of sports player successfully entering politics, but such a transition can never be taken for granted). That leaves us with Alley, who actually performed well in his 2008 campaign for state Treasurer: He lost 51% to 45%, which means he significantly outperformed John McCain.

Walden’s decision has little consequence in the battle for the House: OR-02 is a heavily Republican district (it voted for Bush by 23% in 2004 and it went for McCain by 11% last year). Had Walden retired in a 2006-like environment and Democrats might have had a shot at winning it, but for him to leave the seat open next year wouldn’t have been a big headache for the NRCC.

Meanwhile, another Republican bowed out of a Governor’s race but this time, Democrats are the one who are disappointed.

Two weeks ago, the news that former Rep. Tom Tancredo was preparing to jump in Colorado’s gubernatorial race had threatened to completely alter the way race’s outlook. At worst for the GOP, Tancredo would have won the primary, transforming the general election on a referendum on his controversial persona and extremist rhetoric rather than on Governor Bill Ritter’s record; at best, the establishment would have powered former Rep. Scott McInnis through, but he would have emerged wounded, bruised up and unsure of benefiting from a united base.

But those worries dissipated as quickly as they appeared: McInnis’s nemeses rallied by his side this week-end. First, state Senator John Penry (who just dropped out of the Governor’s race two weeks ago) endorsed him; then, we learned that Tancredo was not only pulling the plug on a statewide run, but that he was preparing to back McInnis as well!

We can now be all but certain that the general election will pit Ritter to McInnis, a highly competitive match-up since the challenger has been narrowly ahead in recent polls.

These unexpected developments occurred after Penry and Tancredo convinced McInnis to adhere to a conservative platform (entitled “Platform for Prosperity”) that the three politicians devised with the help of other Republicans. In an unlikely show of party unity given how divided Colorado Republicans looked recently (and to some level have looked for years), the platform’s unveiling was also attended by former Governor Bill Owens.

As such, Colorado’s intraparty fight will have had the most ideal resolution the Republican establishment can dream of: It got its choice pick, it did so peacefully and the party’s conservative wing emerged satisfied since it got some concession. Perhaps McInnis will get a call from Jane Norton in the days ahead; she surely would like such a resolution to the tough Senate primary that’s shaping up between her, Ken Buck and Tom Wiens.

Since we’re on the subject of Governor’s races: I shall have new gubernatorial rankings out shortly, probably early next week.


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Tancredo signals he’ll run for Governor, sets up yet another brutal GOP primary

Charlie Crist’s inevitability aura collapsed so suddenly that I am still taken aback by every new development that confirms Marco Rubio’s momentum. If there was still any doubt that the conservative establishment was still hesitating to embrace the former Speaker, this ought to dissipate it: Rubio will keynote the 2010 Conservative Political Action Conference, a very important annual gathering at which prominent Republicans pay homage to movement conservatives.

If the Club for Growth’s endorsement signaled that the Doug Hoffman coalition was moving to Florida, CPAC organizers’ decision suggests we might be getting to a point at which Crist becomes so radioactive that establishment politicians - at the very least those who have presidential ambitions - are forced to stay away from him.

This gets us to one of the most fascinating aspects of the GOP’s civil war: The Republican establishment is being forced to abandon some of its own. After all, it’s not like any politician can feel that safe at the moment: They are plenty of Republicans who are not moderates but are in danger of being Scozzafava’d. Their apostasy isn’t be related to policy, but to process-related issues - whether an unsatisfactory tone, their proximity to the national leadership, their weak ties to local activists.

Rep. Roy Blunt was in such a position: He might be a conservative congressman, but the fact that he was the GOP’s obvious candidate in the open Senate race was bound to attract movement conservatives’ animosity and he is lucky that Sarah Steelman, who had spent a few months blasting Blunt as a “white man in a suit,” chose not to pursue a primary challenge.

One Republican who isn’t so lucky is former Rep. Scott McInnis. He was not known as a centrist during his six terms in Congress; now that he is running for Governor, however, his status as a mainstream Republican with extensive ties to Washington makes him look untrustworthy to movement conservatives. A few days ago, McInnis caught what looked like a major break when state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry dropped out of the race, but it now looks like Penry’s exit only set the stage for a higher-profile intraparty fight.

Former Rep. Tom Tancredo, a darling of the national far-right due to his views on immigration and foreign policy, is preparing to enter the race. And given the GOP electorate’s mood, Tancredo would have an excellent shot of beating McInnis.

In remarks he made this week, Tancredo left little doubt that he would position himself as the Tea Party candidate. “I’m not part of the Republican establishment,” he said. “My allegiance is more to a philosophy that it is to a party.” There is little doubt that Tancredo’s candidacy would capture the imagination of Colorado’s conservative activists and of national organizations. His presidential campaign in 2008 was just a last hurrah for a man whose reputation was long already established.

(Note that Tancredo was supporting Penry, so his entry is directly related to the state Senator’s exit. In fact, conservative mistrust towards McInnis is bound to increase due to the circumstance of Penry’s withdrawal: The Denver Post reports that a wealthy McInnis supporter approached Penry to inform him that a political committee was being created with the goal of launching independent expenditure attacks against anyone challenging McInnis - the type of heavy-handed tactic conservatives say is characteristic of the Republican establishment.)

Tancredo’s entry in the race is already delighting Democrats. At worst, McInnis will win the primary - but will do so bruised and having attracted the eternal animosity of Tancredo’s passionate supporters. At best, Tancredo will make it to the general election; not only would he face a harder time winning statewide than McInnis, but he is so controversial that the election would cease to be a referendum on Ritter’s record to become a referendum on Tancredo - a shift any incumbent governor would love to enjoy in 2010.

A February poll conducted by PPP found Governor Bill Ritter ahead of Bob Beauprez 46% to 40% but leading Tancredo 52% to 38%. Ritter’s numbers have considerably worsened since then (PPP has shown McInnis moving into a lead in recent months), but that doesn’t reduce the significance of the 8% differential between Beauprez and Tancredo’s performances. What I find most interesting is that there are far less undecided voters in the match-up involving Tancredo, and that this allows the governor to cross 50%: Tancredo is a polarizing figure who would have trouble forming a winning coalition.

With him as their nominee, Republicans would pay a steep price among Hispanics: That February PPP poll found Beauprez winning that group by 14%, while Tancredo lost it by 18% - a huge turnaround. Sure, the party’s other Republican candidates might not be as anti-immigration as he is, but their gubernatorial nominee would define the party’s brand and push Hispanics in the Democratic camps in races up-and-down the ballot. This could have an important impact in the Senate race.

Yet, for the same reasons I think Democrats shouldn’t wish Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination in 2012 (she’d likely take the GOP towards an electoral nightmare, but she still could win and then what would the left do?), I think Democrats should be very careful what they wish for in Colorado: Tancredo would face a tougher time winning the general election, but he could very well succeed. (In fact, he’s far more likely to do so.)

A Research 2000 poll conducted last December found his favorability rating at 41-46; that’s bad, but not so bad as to make him unelectable. Polls suggest Colorado is particularly tricky for Democrats, the national environment could be very sour for the party, incumbent governors could tank everywhere, the economy might not turn around, Ritter’s approval rating might dip even lower - all factors that make a Tancredo governorship a distinct possibility.



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  • All good things must come to an end

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  • What remains on the table

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  • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

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  • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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