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Thursday polls: Toss-up in Montana, Begich and McConnell move ahead

Published
by
Taniel
on July 31, 2008
in AK-Sen, CA-Pres, GA-Pres, ID-Pres, ID-Sen, IN-09, KY-Pres, KY-Sen, MT-Pres, Nat-Poll, TX-Pres and WA-08
. 8 Comments

The number of polls released today was so outstanding that a second roundup is required - so I apologize for making this a day particularly heavy with polling posts. As compensation, I offer you this link to an amusing interview of top McCain strategist Rick Davis (the one who signed the memo alleging that “only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand “MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars”) by high-profile NBC journalist Andrea Mitchell. A visibly exasperated and incredulous Mitchell challenges Davis to justify why Obama is a celebrity and why the campaign is stooping to such a low level - “no one would deny that,” answers Davis.

In fact, the entire interview is a good pointer on the type of arguments the McCain campaign is looking to use in the coming weeks. In particular, Davis choosing to repeatedly diss the support Obama received in Germany as something that ought to make voters dislike him was a clear echo of the 2004 race and the efforts to portray Kerry as too snobbish, too European. Davis went as far as to hold up expats as the type of elites “working class aspiring voters” should rebel against, and explicitly gave up on the entire expat vote (they’re expats, so they vote for Obama, he charged) - something that might not be so wise considering that expats are not necessarily a monolithically Democratic electorate and that they might impact a close election. Davis’s one-leaner against John Weaver is also particularly noteworthy.

Back to polls. This morning, Quinnipiac showed tight races in Ohio and Florida while Obama led in Pennsylvania and CNN’s national poll. In yet more presidential polling released today, we got some more narrow results:

  • For the fourth consecutive day, Obama lost ground in Gallup’s tracking poll. Up 9% on Sunday, he now gets 45% to McCain’s 44% - the narrowest the race has been for more than 10 days, or before Obama embarked on his trip.
  • Another national poll, by Pew, has Obama leading by 5%, 50% to 45%. In June, Obama led by 8%. 48% said they learned something about Obama’s foreign policy as a result of the trip, versus 52%.
  • In Rasmussen’s poll from Montana, McCain gets 45% to Obama’s 44% - and the two are tied at 47% when leaners are included. Three weeks ago, Obama was ahead by 5% - but that was seen as a truly shocking result. McCain’s favorability rating is slightly better.
  • In Insider Advantage poll from Georgia, the race remains surprisingly close, with McCain ahead 45% to 41% with 3% for Bob Barr.
  • In two Kentucky polls, McCain remains ahead - albeit by varying margins. For Rasmussen, he is up 49% to 39% (down from a 15% lead) but Obama’s unfavorability rating is 50%, compared to 35% for McCain’s. In Research 2000’s poll, McCain leads 56% to 35%.
  • A Texas poll released by Rasmussen, meanwhile, finds McCain holding on to a 9% lead, 50% to 41%. With leaners, the race narrows to a 52% to 44% margin.
  • In California, Obama is ahead 50% to 35% in a PPIC survey.
  • Finally, an Idaho poll released by Research 2000 has McCain leading 53% to 37%. Four years ago, Bush won here by 39%.

Among these state surveys, the Montana poll is certainly the most interesting, but it is a shame that Rasmussen is the only institute that is releasing polls from this state, making it hard to confirm the state’s tightness. McCain might have gained 6% in the past 3 weeks here, but we are not used enough to seeing Montana be this competitive that a tie can in any way be regarded as a disappointing showing for Obama. The Illinois Senator has been running ads in this state and visited it already, and it seems like he succeeded in putting it in play. In fact, the Idaho poll confirms how much of a shift we are observing in the Mountain West.

The other polls come from states that we have long known are less competitive, with Texas and Georgia two states in which McCain’s leads are often much smaller than they ought to be but in which it would take much too great an investment by Obama to truly move the numbers. The Illinois Senator has been spending in Georgia, but other polls have shown larger leads for McCain.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls were released during the day:

  • The most entertaining came from Alaska, where Rasmussen polled three possible match-ups in the day after Ted Stevens’s indictment. If the Senator wins his primary and stays in the race, he is trailing Mark Begich 50% to 37%. Stevens’s favorability rating remains positive, at 50% to 46%. Begich would beat real estate developer David Cuddy 50% to 35% and he leads against unknown but wealthy businessman Vic Vickers 55% to 22%.
  • In Idaho’s Senate race, Research 2000’s poll finds a surprisingly narrow race, with Lieutenant Governor Risch leading former Rep. LaRocco 42% to 32%, with 5% to independent candidate Rex Rammell.
  • In Kentucky’s Senate race, two similar results: Rasmussen found McConnell leading 50% to 38% (up from 48% to 41% lead last month) and Research 2000 showed McConnell leading 49% to 38%, compared to 12% lead last month.
  • Finally, two interesting independent House polls from SUSA. In IN-09, Rep. Hill is leading 49% to 42% in the third fourth match-up between the Democrat and Mike Sodrel.
  • In WA-08, SUSA finds Republican Rep. Reichert with a 50% to 44% lead against his opponent Darcy Burner, in another rematch from 2006. (No surprises in WA-02, where Democratic Rep. Larsen has a huge lead in a race no one is following.)

The reason the Alaska Senate race is in such a chaotic race is that we don’t know who will be running against Mark Begich. If it is any of the three people polled by Rasmussen here, it would mean that (1) Stevens lost the primary to Cuddy or Vickens or that (2) he won the primary and then insisted to stay on the ballot. Under either of these scenarios, it is nearly certain that Alaska would join New Mexico and Virginia as three Senates Democrats are likely to pick-up. The GOP’s hope in this seat is for Stevens to win the primary and then withdraw from the race - allowing for a stronger Republican to try his luck. Until we get a better idea of whether this is a possible scenario, Rasmussen’s poll is not enough to conclude Begich is the clear favorite.

The Kentucky and Idaho Senate races are to second-to-third tier races that the DSCC might be hoping to put in play if it hits the jackpot. The former contest has been heated, with McConnell going on air early with negative ads related to energy issues. As a result, it is hardly surprising to see him take his first consistent double-digit lead. Given how large McConnell’s war chest is (more than $9 million), Lunsford will be vulnerable to such attacks throughout the campaign. The Idaho race is less engaged but a number of Republicans are grumbling that Risch is not running a strong enough campaign; it will take much more than that for LaRocco to get close to scoring a huge upset.

Finally, both IN-09 and WA-08 will featured tight races if only because of the intensity of the previous elections. This is the third fourth consecutive match-up between Hill and Sodrel, with the Democrat having already won 2 out of 3. Reichert survived 2006 by only two percentage points. Both incumbents are flirting with the 50% line and are thus clearly endangered, but such leads are more impressive in polls of rematches in which the challenger is already somewhat known.

Poll watch: Monitoring the bounce

Published
by
Taniel
on July 27, 2008
in CA-Pres, Nat-Poll and SC-Pres
. 1 Comment

Our previous bounce watch came in the days following Barack Obama’s final victory against Hillary Clinton, and Clinton’s concession speech. That week, Obama inched narrowly ahead of John McCain and has maintained his slight lead ever since, as McCain has not led in a single national poll in that period. Yet, the GOP was clearly worried that Obama could jump to a double-digit lead, and that did not happen. Now, we are on to a second bounce watch: Will Obama benefit from the wall-to-wall coverage of his international trip?

A few days ago, I argued that the long-term impact of this trip is likely to be under-the-surface changes in voters’ perception of the Democratic candidate - shifts that might not immediately be obvious to polls. Today, the Gallup tracking poll shows enough movement to warrant our attention:

  • In the past three days, Obama has moved from a 2% lead to a 6%, then 7% and then 9% lead. In today’s release, Obama is ahead 49% to 40%.

I do not report the results of the tracking polls every day, but a 7% swing in three days is a statistically significant swing that gives Obama his largest lead in the history of Gallup’s tracking polls (since March). Obama falls just short of the double-digit barrier, but the poll’s timing - the first Gallup tracking released after Obama’s return to the United leaves little doubt that the past few days have generated enough positive coverage for Obama to see him bounce upward. However, the Rasmussen tracking poll finds the race remaining stable today:

  • Obama leads 49% to 44% with leaners, 46% to 41% without. His favorability rating (56%) is comparable to McCain’s (55%). Obama had inched upwards five days in a row but he enjoyed a 6% lead two days ago. Unlike in Gallup, Obama did not widen his advantage in Rasmussen as his trip concluded.

Beyond the size of the bounce, the question is whether or not the bounce will last. As media coverage of Obama’s week abroad is now ceasing, what will voters remember, and did this trip matter enough to shift the race towards Obama all by itself? After all, with the candidates’ vice-presidential picks probably coming up in the next 10 days, the political conversation will soon shift to a completely different topic. And as McCain is dialing up his attacks on Obama’s national security credentials, we will soon see how solid Obama’s armor is on this issue.

Meanwhile, two state polls were released this week-end - though neither is from a battleground state:

  • In California, Rasmussen finds Obama leading 50% to 38%, 52% to 42% with leaners. That is actually quite a gain for McCain who trailed 58% to 30% last month. Previous Rasmussen results showed a result more in line with this week’s. Obama’s favorability rating is also a bit superior - 60% to 54%.
  • In South Carolina, Research 2000 shows McCain ahead 53% to 40%. Obama only gets 15% of the white vote while McCain gets 4% of the black vote (31% of the sample) - as great a racial polarization as we have seen in Southern polls.

While some Democrats are talking about picking-up Georgia and Mississippi, South Carolina is mentioned even more rarely and with good reason: The share of the black vote is lower than Mississippi’s, but the white vote seems to be as locked for Republicans than in Mississippi (in 2004, Kerry’s share of the white vote was slightly better here, 22% versus… 14% in Mississippi), an impossible equation for a national Democrat to resolve. Note, however, that the most recent SC poll, released by PPP two weeks ago, had McCain leading by only 6%.

As for California, McCain enjoyed a big swing in his favor here, but remains distanced in a state that would cost so much to invest any effort in that McCain would be unable to contest it even if he wanted to. Unless McCain gets a national landslide, California is off-limits for him. However, the margin of Obama’s victory in the Golden State will be key to determining the totals of the national popular vote. If Obama builds up a huge win in California, it might not help him in the electoral college but it will tremendously boost up his numbers
in the symbolic popular vote.

Wednesday polls: Merkley takes his first lead in Oregon’s Senate race, though Dole and Roberts increase their lead

Published
by
Taniel
on July 16, 2008
in CA-Pres, KS-Pres, KS-Sen, NC-Gov, NC-Pres, NC-Sen, OR-Pres, OR-Sen, SD-Sen and WA-Pres
. 9 Comments

Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. Along with New Hampshire, Maine and Minnesota, Oregon was part of the original list of the DSCC was determined to go after. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here — just as they seem to be doing in Maine. Well, Democrats finally got some good news from the race with the first poll to find Merkley leading the Republican incumbent:

  • After two straight polls that found Smith leading by single-digits, Rasmussen released its July survey today with Merkley narrowly ahead of Smith, 43% to 41%. When leaners are included, the two candidates are tied at 46%.

Make no mistake, this will not be an easy race for Democrats. Smith has always known he has a target on his back and he has prepared himself — even airing ads linking himself to Barack Obama! Projecting as moderate an image as possible is essential for Smith given Oregon’s increasingly blue profile, but it seems that even might not be enough. Forget Susan Collins, Gordon Smith is the most at risk of being Chaffee-ed this year.

Beyond Oregon’s Senate poll, we can launch our usual poll roundup, starting with a national poll:

  • The latest Reuters/Zogby poll finds Obama slightly increasing his lead. He is now ahead 47% to 40%, though he only has a 3% lead among independents.

This is now the fourth national poll in two days showing Obama with a high single-digit lead, after Quinnipiac’s 9%, the NYT’s 6% and the Washington Post’s 8%. Just as in yesterday’s Quinnipiac survey, it is striking to see Obama leading comfortably overall but not among independents. In 2008, Democratic candidates can win based on their base and on voters who have come to identify with the party since 2004, as long as they can hold roughly even among independents. I stand by what I said yesterday: This confirms to me that it is a “strategic blunder” for Obama to emphasize his centrist positions. In Rasmussen’s Oregon poll, Smith and Merkley get the same percentage of the Republican and Democratic vote respectively and Smith leads among independents by a fairly large 10% — though he trails overall!

Next comes a wave of state presidential polls:

  • SUSA’s poll of North Carolina finds McCain’s lead narrowing to only five percent, 50% to 45%. Obama gets 94% of the black vote but only 31% of the white vote.
  • In Oregon, Rasmussen shows Obama up 46% to 37%, a lead comparable to what he posted last month.
  • In Washington, Moore Information — a Republican firm — finds Obama leading 47% to 37%.
  • And California’s most reputable survey, the Field, has Obama crushing McCain 54% to 30%.
  • No surprises in Kansas, finally, as McCain is up 20% in Rasmsussen’s latest poll, 52 to 32%. That’s up from a 10% lead last month.

No surprises on the Pacific Coast, with Obama holding strong in all three of these states — increasingly so in Oregon and Washington, places Democrats should always be careful in. North Carolina remains an interesting state, with poll after poll showing McCain holding on by the tightest of margins. Note that SUSA’s sample includes 19% of black voters, whereas the 2004 exit poll shows that 26% of voters were African-American (and some predict an increase in black turnout). That shift alone might allow Obama to make up the difference of the SUSA poll.

But Obama will have to improve his share of the white vote to be truly competitive in this Southern state - or in any Southern state except Virginia. Kerry got 27% of whites here four years ago, roughly what Obama got in this SUSA poll. But the good news for Democrats is that Obama does not need to come close to McCain among Southern white voters: combined with overwhelming support from black voters, a significant boost among white voters is all Obama needs to win North Carolina. If 25% of the electorate is black and Obama gets around 90% of that vote, 36% of the white vote would be enough to carry the state.

Finally, a number of down-the-ballot polls:

  • In North Carolina’s Senate race, SUSA finds Elizabeth Dole jumping up to a 12% lead, up from the 4% in May.
  • The state’s gubernatorial race remains a complete toss-up, with Beverly Perdue at 47% and Pat McCrory at 46%.
  • In South Dakota’s Senate race, Tim Johnson has no problem as he crushes his Republican opponent 60% to 35%.
  • Finally, in the Kansas Senate race, Rasmussen breaks the long series of polls finding Sen. Roberts surprisingly weak by now showing him leading Jim Slattery 57% to 30%.

The Dole-Hagan numbers continue to disappoint Democrats, though SUSA’s poll does nothing but confirm what other institutes have already shown: Hagan received a dramatic boost following her primary victory in early May, but Dole’s ad campaign since then have allowed her to create some gap again. She rebounded by 15% in one month in Rasmussen, jumped back up double-digits in Civitas and PPP.

And the Democrat’s quest to find new seats to put in play is also countered today by Rasmussen’s Kansas results; but keep in mind that Research 2000 and Cooper Associates had also found unexpectedly tight numbers. What might have changed in the past few weeks? Taking no chances, Roberts started airing his first ad two weeks ago.

Presidential polls: The solidifying Democratic base

Published
by
Taniel
on June 27, 2008
in CA-Pres, CO-Pres, MI-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, MS-Pres, NE-Pres, TN-Pres, TX-Pres, Uncategorized and WI-Pres
. 0 Comments

Today is a day heavy with polling posts, as I am still catching up after two days of continuous collapses in my hosting and changes to my URL and templates. After having reviewing the day’s uncommonly high Senate polls, on to the numerous presidential surveys. As I have said many times, the key to this election resides in the vote of registered Democrats. The shift of partisan identification almost ensures that Obama will be elected if he achieves high support among Democratic voters and thus make the breakdown of independents and registered Republicans quasi-irrelevant. As you will see in some of today’s polls, the vote of Democrats is key to Obama’s progressing from Kerry’s numbers:

  • Missouri, first, swings back to McCain in SUSA’s latest poll. After a 2% Obama lead in the previous poll, McCain is now ahead 50% to 43%, despite a significant Democratic advantage in voting registration. The reason? Obama only gets 76% of registered Democrats.

I moved Missouri out of the McCain column to the slate of toss-ups in my latest electoral college ratings, though many polls through the spring pointed to a slight Republican advantage here. It is striking that this poll shows no improvement from the numbers of 2004 despite a partisan breakdown that is much more favorable to Obama. TPM is reporting that McCain is blanketing the state with advertising while Obama is not really doing much for now. If is true, this would obviously call into question Obama’s determination to win the state. Will he pull a Kerry and give up on Missouri way before any vote is cast?

In a series of much-discussed polls from Quinnipiac, meanwhile, Obama achieves very high support among registered Democrats and thus runs a clean sweep across four battleground states:

  • In Colorado, Obama leads McCain 49% to 44%. He gets more than 90% among registered Democrats, leads by 12% among independents and has a 62% to 36% lead among Hispanics, a key constituency.
  • In Michigan, Obama is ahead 48% to 42%, with 86% of registered Democrats and a 8% lead among independents.
  • In Minnesota, Obama crushes his opponent 54% to 37%, with 88% of registered Democrats and a 54% to 33% lead among independents!
  • In Wisconsin, Obama is also ahead by double-digits, crushing McCain 52% to 39%, with 88% of registered Democrats and a 13% lead among independents.

While a representative from the institute does warn that Obama’s lead “is not hugely different from where Sen. John Kerry stood four years ago at this point in the campaign,” it is undeniable that Obama has a key advantage: The dominance of Democratic voters and the fact that he needs independents less than Kerry did. McCain will have to get Obama under the 86%+ range he is in the Quinnipiac polls. As to these particular states, it is looking increasingly evident that Obama is looking to secure the “Dukakis 5″ and his lead in MN and WI is much more consistent and substantial than Kerry’s were four years ago.

As for Colorado and Michigan, there are sure to be some of the most disputed states this fall. In fact, Colorado looks to be as favorable a Bush state as any, with Rasmussen and Quinnipiac finding slight leads for the Illinois Senator. Keep in mind that the state brings 9 electoral votes, a significant number that would get Obama an electoral majority if coupled with New Mexico and Iowa. That would entail holding on to all the Kerry states, and Michigan looks to be one of the toughest for Obama. But after a series of disastrous polls this spring, it looks like the increase in Democratic unity is allowing Obama to create some space

Other presidential polls released today:

  • In California, Obama crushes McCain 58% to 30%, the double of the 14% lead he enjoyed last month. There is a stunning difference in favorability rating in a state that Bush had respectable showings in: 63% for Obama and 43% for McCain.
  • A Lyceum poll from Texas finds McCain only ahead 43% to 38%.
  • A Mississippi survey released by Rasmussen finds McCain leading 50% to 44%, which is the same lead as last month. There is however a clear difference in favorability rating, with McCain enjoying 58% and Obama 48%. Furthermore, 37% have a very unfavorable opinion of the Democrat.
  • In Tennessee, McCain’s lead is closer to what we would expect, 51% to 36%. He led 58% to 31% last month.
  • In Nebraska, finally, McCain is ahead 52% to 36%, with a huge advantage in favorability rating (68% to 48%). Keep in mind that NE divides its electoral votes by CD, with the 1st and 2nd being much more favorable to Democrats than the 3rd. Rasmussen did not release district-by-district breakdown.

None of these numbers are particularly surprising, though there are two important observations to be made: (1) This Texas poll is not particularly reliable, as no one really knows much about Lyceum. But this is not the first poll showing a tight race in the Lone Star State. Obama is not running ads here, but he is sending a few staffers and has a huge army of volunteers. Forcing McCain to play defense in a state he cannot afford to even think about would be devastating for the GOP.

(2) Combine the tightening of Texas over the past four years with the huge lead Obama has in California and the result is obvious: If November results are anything close to this, it is impossible to imagine Obama losing the popular vote… though he won’t gain any electoral vote in the process. A 28% lead in California means increasing Kerry’s margin by many millions — and the same is true in Texas.

Saturday polls: Obama opens lead in NH, and why so many polls from WA?

Published
by
Taniel
on June 21, 2008
in CA-Pres, IA-Pres, NH-Pres, NV-Pres, Nat-Poll and WA-Pres
. 0 Comments

After yesterday’s Newsweek poll showing Obama enjoying a dramatic bounce, the USA Today/Gallup poll looks to be more in line with what we have been seeing from other institutes:

  • Obama is leading McCain 50% to 44%, which is the margin the latest NBC and CBS polls found as well.
  • Obama enjoys the support of a high 84% of registered Democrats, and has a 12% lead among independents.

The Newsweek poll had similar internal numbers for the different partisan groups, confirming the analysis I offered yesterday that partisan breakdown would be the key measure of this election. While Newsweek’s poll found a stunningly strong breakdown for Democrats (55% of respondents described themselves as such versus 36% of Republicans), it is not out of line with SUSA’s repeated findings of a massive swing towards Obama’s party compared to the 2004 exit polls.

Meanwhile, a number of state polls were also released in the past 48 hours, some of them from crucial swing states:

  • In New Hampshire, Obama has opened a big lead according to Rasmussen’s latest poll. He is ahead 50% to 39%, up from a 5% lead last month.
  • In Nevada, Rasmussen finds McCain holding on to a lead, 45% to 42%. This is down from a 6% lead last month.
  • Obama’s favorability rating is only at 50%, versus 58% for McCain.
  • In Iowa, SUSA finds Obama leading 49% to 45%, somewhat of a disappointing result given that some Democrats believe Obama is in a position to put this Bush state away early.
  • Update: A commenter makes the good point that I should have thought about that polls from Iowa when the state is flooded cannot possibly be reliable.
  • In California, nothing much has changed since 2004 according to SUSA’s latest poll. Obama is ahead 53% to 41%, including a 65% to 26% lead among Hispanics and a 42% gender gap.
  • Finally, SUSA released a poll from Washington, again. It shows Obama leading McCain 55% to 40%, which is the margin he has enjoyed in most other polls from the state.

Washington is vying for the title of the most-polled state this cycle. SUSA is releasing a poll from the state every two weeks, and we now have a lot of data points confirming that Obama has successfully put the state away. However much McCain wanted to contest it, the state’s move back to the safe-blue column (which had already helped Kerry in 2004) is continuing. Do we really need this many polls from the state to confirm that?

The polls from Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa are certainly more interesting for it is in these states that the election should be decided. While Ohio and Florida certainly hold more electoral votes, Obama will need an alternative path if those 47 electoral votes stay in McCain’s column, one made up of smaller states like NV, NH and IA. Keeping New Hampshire’s 4 electoral votes might not seem to be that important a priority, but the state is among the only vulnerable Kerry states from 2004. And it would enable Obama to win the election by pulling out Iowa and Nevada and just one other (say, New Mexico). Polls in Iowa have been favorable to the Democrat over the past few months, though Republicans must be relieved that they are still in a position to contest that one. And Nevada polls have been showing a very narrow advantage for the GOP candidate.

McCain’s map and the electoral college

Published
by
Taniel
on June 10, 2008
in CA-Pres, Nat-Pres and electoral map
. 11 Comments

Showcasing its general election strategy, the McCain campaign released data, slides and maps from a recent strategy briefing. The material confirmed that McCain will portray Obama as “outside the mainstream” and will seek to use his opponent’s clear problems in the Appalachia (which include Southeastern Ohio and Southwestern Pennsylvania) to take control of states that Democrats are hoping to contest. The campaign also released the following electoral map of the states it believes the candidate will be able to strongly contest:


The extent to which both parties believe they will be able to “change the map” this cycle is remarkable, especially when we consider that this was one of Obama’s main electability arguments against the more traditional approach of the Clinton campaign. McCain’s map is most in terms of what is left out and the two surprising states that are included. First, notice the exclusion of:

  • Red states that the Obama campaign is planning on contesting, starting with Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, in what is an attempt to downplay Obama’s competitiveness in traditionally Republican areas. Note how confident McCain sounded today when asked about Virginia’s new status as a swing state. “We will win,” he insisted.
  • Florida and West Virginia, traditional swing states which the GOP is a bit more confident of carrying with Obama bearing the Democratic mantle.
  • Washington and Oregon, traditional swing states which McCain is said to want to compete but which Obama will have an easier time defending than Clinton would have.
  • New Jersey, Iowa and Minnesota, states in which polls find a tight race and which the GOP is committed to contesting (particularly if McCain chooses Gov. Pawlenty), so I am puzzled as to their exclusion.

The exclusion of Minnesota and Iowa when Michigan is included confirms that MI will be at the center of McCain’s campaign and should be considered as one of the most important battles of the campaign, along with PA and OH. Obama could conceivably lose the latter two but get to the White House through a less conventional route, but the loss of all three states would surely be fatal to Democratic hopes.

Furthermore, the exclusion of those two states and of New Jersey’s is striking considering the campaign’s choice to list California and Connecticut, two states which conventional wisdom (and polls) rate as more safely anchored in the Democratic camp. While the map-changing potential of McCain’s appeal to independents is undeniable, it is hard to envision that it could lead the Republican to an upset in the Golden State without first putting him on top in a state like Oregon.

In fact, California’s inclusion can be best described as an effort by Republicans to get Democrats worried about the state, forcing them to spend resources defending this must-win state instead of setting their sights in more interesting contests. The GOP sets a similar trap every 4 years, though Democrats rarely fall for the trick; in 2000, Al Gore did not revisit his campaign plans to defend California and it is George Bush who wasted the most time pretending like the contest there was competitive. Expect the McCain campaign to continue making a similar case in the coming months.

Yet, it is most likely that Republicans will have no money to actually contest the state and actually move numbers. This is why McCain has to settle for the minimal strategy of convincing the press that California could swing and thus propagate a narrative that will (the GOP hopes) lead Democrats to panic and play defense. Indeed, Republicans are at a major financial disadvantage this year, and given Obama’s financial advantage it would not be that much of an inconvenience for him to drop a few millions in the Golden State to make sure its 55 electoral votes are safely in his column.

In fact, Obama’s financial advantage should allow Democrats to play the same trick on Republicans in McCain’s must-win states. And since Obama will have plenty of money, he will be able to spend some of it in places like Texas and Arizona to test McCain’s vulnerabilities (while the GOP can do little else than leak strategy briefings). If Democrats are successful in moving these races within single-digits, they would tie McCain down to playing defense in states he cannot afford to lose.

Poll update: When Wyoming becomes a (congressional) battleground

Published
by
Taniel
on May 31, 2008
in CA-Pres, WA-Pres, WI-Pres, WY-AL and WY-Pres
. 9 Comments

The Rules and Bylaws committee is about to convene, and it is remarkable that the Democratic primaries have made a meeting about party rules must-see political spectacle. It will take a few hours to figure out what decision — if any — comes out of the committee, so for now let’s start with the day with a look at the latest polls. I never thought the day would come when I would lead a poll update post with a survey from Wyoming, but a Research 2000 poll released yesterday is certainly noteworthy:

  • In the open and at-large House seat currently held by Republican Rep. Cubin, Democrat Gary Trauner narrowly leads Republican Cynthia Lummis, 44% to 41%. Among independents, Trauner leads 58% to 32%.
  • In the presidential match-up, John McCain is leading Obama 53% to 40% in a state Bush triumphed in 2004 69% to 29%. Obama has the narrowest of leads among independents.

There are many signs that the GOP is in trouble in the Mountain West and that the Republican brand is suffering in many states in which the party is used to dominate. Wyoming is too red a state for Democrats to have a chance at the presidential level, but a Trauner victory would be a shocking development that seems very much in reach. Keep in mind that at-large congressmen positions are often stepping-stones for statewide office, either the governorship or the Senate, so a House victory by Trauner could cost the GOP a Senate seat down the line (see North Dakota, for instance, where the entire congressional delegation is made up of Democrats).

Meanwhile, three general election polls were released yesterday by three different polling institutes:

  • In Wisconsin, SUSA found Obama ahead of McCain 48% to 42% in its latest installment of VP match-ups. Obama leads McCain by 17% among independents. When vice-presidents are included, the range varies though there is little surprising that cannot be explained by name recognition.
  • In California, the all-important Field Poll finds both Democrats leading McCain by 17%: 52% to 35% for Obama and 53% to 36% for Clinton.
  • In Washington, the Elway poll finds Democrats leading as well, 44% to 38% for Obama and 41% to 36% for Clinton. 74% of Clinton supporters would vote for Obama, which is certainly a decent number.

No surprises in those match-ups, except perhaps the fact that Obama does not run stronger than Clinton in Washington. After all, the Pacific Northwest is a region in which Obama typically runs better than Clinton. Also, the latter poll suggests that Washington State is not quite as secure for Obama as some have been suggesting. It is true that Obama’s appeal will be strong here, but the McCain campaign believes that it, too, can find a way to woo Washington independents. As for California, there have been some polls in recent weeks that have found a single-digit race but most surveys found McCain lagging far behind. This is key, for Democrats cannot afford to waste any time and money defending the Golden State without which they have no electoral path to the White House.

Week-end polls: In case anyone had illusions about Clinton’s June 3rd chances

Published
by
Taniel
on May 26, 2008
in CA-Pres, MT-Dem, MT-Pres, NC-Pres, NE-Pres and NE-Sen
. 10 Comments

The first poll of the Montana primary — not a contest that was expected to ever be surveyed — suggests that June 3rd should not allow Hillary Clinton to close the primary season on a high note. Mason-Dixon shows Barack Obama leading 52% to 35%, and there is every reason to believe that Clinton’s road is as tough in South Dakota.

Naturally, these two primaries award very few delegates (31 combined, versus 55 in Puerto Rico two days earlier). But since Clinton’s goal seems to be to find an argument to stay in the race as long as possible, there is no doubt that two harsh defeats on the last Election Night will not bode well for her campaign’s rationale in the days following June 3rd, days in which the remaining uncommitted superdelegates are expected to pick their side at an increasing speed. DemCon Watch details this week’s updates, and finds that Obama picked up 3 supers to Clinton’s one (all were add-on, and Clinton’s surprisingly came from Georgia).

Meanwhile, a list of general election polls were released today:

  • First, Gallup’s national tracking poll is noteworthy for it shows one of the largest differentials between Clinton and Obama’s performance that it has recorded since the tracking started a while ago. Today, Obama trails 49% to 44% while Clinton leads 47% to 45%.
  • Meanwhile, Mason-Dixon’s Montana poll shows possibly tight races, though McCain is predictably starting ahead. He leads Clinton 50% to 39% and Obama 47% to 39%. Bush won 59% to 39% four years ago.
  • In neighboring Nebraska, however, Research 2000 crushes Democratic hopes of picking up a few electoral votes with Obama’s candidacy. McCain trounces Obama 57% to 29% (leading by wide margins in all congressional districts) and leads Clinton 58% to 28%. A Rasmussen poll and a SUSA poll released in the past few months showed much tighter results.
  • Meanwhile, in California, an LA Times poll should send shills down Democrats’ spine, as McCain is very close to both Democrats: 47% to 40% against Obama, 43% to 40% against Clinton. Two polls released Friday showed both Dems up double-digits.
  • Finally, a North Carolina poll by Civitas has a tight race between McCain and Obama, with the Republican leading 44% to 39%.

The California numbers are significant, for if a series of polls in the next few weeks show the potential of a single-digit race, the Democratic nominee will be forced to spend resources to defend this large state with expensive media markets even if the GOP campaign does not attempt anything. Democrats can take no risk in California, as the loss of its 55 electoral votes would leave no road to the White House.

The Western states are also interesting, for it is a central part of Obama’s argument of a different electoral map that states that have traditionally not been receptive to Democrats — places like North Dakota, some congressional districts in Nebraska, Montana — could warm up to him. Polls are telling a conflicting picture about this, as Obama has polled very strongly in some polls (in Alaska, Nebraska) but more poorly in some. All these states have very few electoral votes, so the loss/gain of one would not necessarily determine the election (though it could, as Al Gore learned in 2000).

In one last polling note, Research 2000 also conducted a survey of the Nebraska Senate race and found Mike Johanns leading Scott Kleeb by a wide 58% to 31%. A Rasmussen poll released last week found Johanns ahead 55% to 40%, a more promising picture for the Democrats. But this merely confirms what we already know: What was a very promising race at some point in the fall is now among the most difficult for Democrats, as Johanns is a very popular and well-known politician of a very Republican state. This is a rare congressional open seat in which the GOP looks to have saved itself through recruiting.

Friday polls: Obama polls better in Ohio, dogged by low numbers with registered Dems

Published
by
Taniel
on May 23, 2008
in AZ-Pres, CA-Pres, MS-Pres, NH-Pres, NV-Pres, OH-Pres and PA-Pres
. 6 Comments

As the Democratic primaries are heading towards their conclusion, more polling outlets are releasing general election surveys, leading to a daily drumbeat of interesting results. Today, we ought to start with the two surveys from Ohio and Pennsylvania, among the most important states in the general election:

  • SUSA released one of the first surveys from Ohio that is favorable to Obama for a long time. The Illinois Senator leads John McCain 48% to 39%. Note that the sample contains a very high number of registered Democrats (52%), though it’s also important to notice that Obama reaches his highest level of support among registered Democrats in any SUSA poll from Ohio: 76%.

  • This is a poll meant to test VP support, so there is no match-up with Clinton. I will not detail the VP tests, but the range goes from +2 McCain for Huckabee/Rendell tickets to +18 Obama for Pawlently/Edwards tickets.

  • Meanwhile, a Rasmussen poll from Pennsylvania shows Clinton crushing McCain 50% to 39% while Obama is only ahead 45% to 43%. Last month, Obama trailed by 1 and Clinton led by 6.

  • Obama’s support among registered Democrats is very low: 63%. McCain and him have comparable favorability levels.

A long series of polls — cumulating in yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama trailing McCain while Clinton crushed him — suggested that Obama had a big problem in Ohio. This SUSA poll does not fully dispell that notion considering the strange partisan breakdown and the fact that the majority of respondents are registered Democrats. But it also should serve as a reminder that, even if Obama might have electoral maps that are more appropriate for him than the emphasis on OH and FL that could work better for Clinton, Ohio at least still remains competitive and the Obama campaign has enough money to compete there forcefully even while focusing on Virginia and Colorado.

As for Pennsylvania, it merely confirms the series of PA/OH/FL polls I mentioned above that show Clinton polling more strongly than Obama in those states. Yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll showed similar results. PA is not a state that the Obama campaign can ignore, to say the least. Not only does it lean more Democratic than OH and FL, but losing all three swing states would make it extremely difficult for Obama to climb back to 270 electoral votes. Meanwhile, two other polls from important swing states were released:

  • In Nevada, Rasmussen finds Clinton polling surprisingly better than Obama given that Western states are supposed to be more welcoming to him: Clinton is ahead 46% to 41% and McCain leads Obama 46% to 40%. Obama only gets 65% of registered Democrats.

  • In New Hampshire, Rasmussen finds both Democrats reversing the April trend and leading McCain. Clinton is leading 51% to 41% and Obama is ahead 48% to 43%. In the all-important (and symbolic, given what happened on January 8th) battle for independents, Obama is ahead of McCain by 11%.

The two Southwestern states (New Mexico and Nevada) and New Hampshire will feautre some of this year’s tightest battles, though none of them offer a lot of electoral votes. The Southwstern showdown, however, will be key to future presidential elections, as Democrats need to make gains in the region as their Northeastern strongholds will continue to lose electoral votes.

Note, however, that in both Nevada and Pennsylvania Obama’s principal weakness comes from registered Democrats, a phenomenon that we have documented at great length by now but that is nonetheless always surprising to notice. The Illinois Senator will surely rise above numbers like 63-66% support as the party is reunited, but there is no doubt that he will face major difficulties in his efforts to solidify the base. How well he addresses the concerns of registered Democrats reluctant to support him appears to be the key to November.

Finally, three polls were released from states that should safe for one party or the other:

  • In Mississippi, a Research 2000 poll found McCain beating both Dems,54% to 39% against Obama and 55% to 36% against Clinton.

  • In California, Rasmussen finds both Democrats leading, 52% to 38% for Obama and 55% to 36% for Clinton. McCain’s favorability rating is at 46%, Obama’s at 57%.

  • PPIC also polled California and found Obama with a bigger lead, 54% to 37%, while Clinton’s lead was 51% to 39%.

  • Finally, Behavior Research Center finds McCain leading in his home-state of Arizona: 50% to 39% against Obama, 51% to 36% against Clinton.

Democrats should be heartened that all four of their leads in California are double-digits. If California polls show any sign of tightening, Democrats would be forced to spend precious time and resources defending these must-win 55 electoral votes. Meanwhile, McCain’s numbers in Mississippi and Arizona are underwhelming. Some around the Obama campaign insist that states like Mississippi could be in play as Obama will boost black turnout, but the internals of the Research 2000 polls show that will come at a price: white voters will turn to the GOP more than they usually do. Obama only got 18% of the white vote in this Mississippi poll.

Presidential polls: Obama weak in Florida, strong in CO, as Clinton posts surprising NC numbers

Published
by
Taniel
on May 22, 2008
in CA-Pres, CO-Pres, MO-Pres, NC-Pres, PA-Pres, UT-Pres and VA-Pres
. 10 Comments

A lot of presidential polls to digest today, as SUSA, Rasmussen and two other polling groups released new match-ups for a total of 8 states with some surprises and some expected results. The most interesting come from the pair of Southern states that the Obama campaign believes it can put in play:

  • In North Carolina, SUSA finds surprising results: Hillary Clinton is leading McCain 49% to 43%, while Obama is trailing 51% to 43%. As usual, Clinton’s advantage is derived from women (she leads McCain by 19% while Obama trails by 1%) and by registered Democrat, among whom her lead is 20% superior to Obama’s.
  • In Virginia, a VCU Commonwealth poll shows that McCain is leading both Democrats, 44% to 36% against Obama and 47% to 38% against Clinton. One puzzling internal is that Obama only gets a 41% to 36% in Northern Virginia, a region he will have to win by a much bigger margin to make the state competitive.

With all the talk of Obama putting the Carolinas and Virginia (some even add other Southern states to the list) in play, it is easy to forget that until February Clinton polled systematically better than Obama in the South and in non-Western red states. This was true in Kentucky, surely, but also in states like Virginia. It is still surprising to see Clinton poll that much better than her rival in North Carolina, a state in which Obama trounced Hillary and a state which his campaign is prompt to put on the competitive list. There is no question that a race in single-digit is already a victory for Democrats, since they had difficulty reaching that point in 2004 even with that Edwards on the ticket; the same is true in Virginia. But to prevail in one or both of these states Obama will have to improve his showing among registered Democrats: They should be his base, but he often has trouble solidifying it.

Another important poll that was just released is Rasmussen’s latest from Florida:

  • McCain leads Obama handily, 50% to 40% (this is actually a 5% improvement for Obama). But he trails Clinton 47% to 41%.

Rasmussen’s poll from Ohio found a very similar set of results a few days ago, prompting me to write early musings on Obama’s electoral map and the fact that he appears constantly weak in Ohio and Florida polls. Whatever the reason — McCain looks to be stronger than most Republicans among elderly, Hispanics and possibly Jewish voters while Obama has possible weaknesses among these groups — Florida does look like one of the states where Clinton could have fared better, as Rasmussen’s poll suggest and as the latest Quinnipiac poll confirmed (Clinton beat McCain by 8% while Obama trailed by 1%). This means that Obama will rely on an alternative electoral map, one based on states in which he appears stronger than Clinton, for instance Colorado:

  • The latest Rasmussen poll from Colorado finds Obama besting McCain 48% to 42% while McCain beats Clinton 47% to 44%.

Colorado’s 9 electoral votes are even more within reach considering that the Democratic convention will be held in Denver. Kerry got surprisingly close in 2004, and Obama strongly appeals to the Western independents whose support is key to changing the state’s allegiance. If Democrats carry the state this year, Colorado will have gone through a very rapid switch from reliably red to blue state within 3 election cycles. And in other polling news:

  • Missouri is another red state that will be very hotly contested in the coming months, certainly more than Kerry went for it in 2004. SUSA finds Clinton faring a bit better, besting McCain 48% to 46% while Obama narrowly trails 48% to 45%.
  • The differential between the two Democrats is mainly due to the registered Democrats vote, as Clinton gets 82% to Obama’s 72%.
  • In the day’s least interesting poll, Deseret confirms that McCain has no reason to worry about Utah’s electoral votes. He leads 65% to 20% against Clinton and 62% to 27% against Obama.

Finally, SUSA released two polls from blue states testing potential veepstakes. I am not particularly interested in the VP match-ups in that most of the names have very low name recognition and the test is mostly a measure of that. There seems to be little question that John Edwards and Mike Huckabee help their party’s nominees the most, but that is also a reflection on the other tested names not being very well known. So I am here only providing the hard matchup numbers:

  • In Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead of McCain 48% to 40%. View more VP match-ups here, as I will only say that it is interesting that the inclusion of Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell does not help the Democratic ticket at all.
  • In California, Obama leads McCain 49% to 41%. View the numbers with VP match-ups here.

The first margin is strong for Obama, though there is no question that he would rather lead by a larger percentage in California to ensure that he will not have to spend a single minute or a single dime defending the country’s largest state, and one without which no Democrat can reach the White House. Finally, Democracy Corps released a national poll that shows both Democrats leading McCain by 2 percent.

Same-sex marriage legalized in California

Published
by
Taniel
on May 15, 2008
in CA-Pres and Gay marriage
. 9 Comments

In a decision that will have obvious consequences on the presidential race, the California Supreme Court rejected state marriage laws as discriminatory, making California the second state in the country after Massachusetts to legalize same-sex marriages.

The ruling was closely divided, 4 votes to 3, but this is a moderately conservative court, dominated by Republican appointments (6 to 1). An appeal is expected to the federal Supreme Court but they have never taken up the issue of gay marriage and it is unlikely they will do so now. Thus there is nothing to stop licenses from being issued later this spring. Note that California already had a domestic partnership program that was among the most ambitious in the country, as it granted pretty much all marriage rights to gay couples.

Opponents are already gearing up for a showdown at the polls to pass a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage in November — though even that will be too late to stop the marriages that will take place until then. A coalition of religious and conservative groups had already submitted a petition to place the issue on the fall ballot; the petition is being currently reviewed by the Secretary of State’s office. 763,790 signatures out of 1,1 million have to be valid, and past rates of signature validity don’t guarantee that this one will make it.

Predictably, Republican leaders are enraged against these “activist judges.” Rep. Roy Blunt, who is high up in the GOP’s House leadership, issued a statement lamenting that “the decision of unelected judges to overturn the will of the people of California on the question of same-sex marriage demonstrates the lengths that unelected judges will go to substitute their own worldview for the wisdom of the American people.” He added that “these California values are not the values of the majority of the American people.”

But the GOP is in a bind here. First, these California judges are confirmed by voters — so they are dependent on the democratic process. Second, the California legislature twice passed a law legalizing gay marriage; twice Governor Schwarzenegger vetoed the bill saying that the matter should be settled by the judiciary and that the matter was already making its way through the courts. That’s not going to stop Republicans from denouncing the activist judges, but the fact that the state’s Republican governor declined to listen to the legislature and asked the court to rules makes their argument weaker. To his credit, Schwarzenegger did not criticize today’s decision and stated that, “As I have said in the past, I will not support an amendment to the constitution that would overturn this state Supreme Court ruling.”

The presidential campaigns, meanwhile, have stayed largely silent on this issue today. Today’s ruling brings back the debate over same-sex marriage in the political discussio; it had largely faded since 2004. That year, George Bush benefited from two factors: (1) Discussion of gay marriage made values and social issues crucial to the campaign and (2) a bunch of states passed constitutional amendments that Republicans helped put on the ballot to boost conservative turnout. It has been debated whether these referendums actually changed turnout rates and helped Bush that much, but there is no question that heavy discussion of those issues did not help John Kerry.

This year is likely to be different, however. For one, gay marriage is already less polarizing than it was 4 years ago. Arizona rejected a constitutional marriage amendment in 2006, South Dakota almost did the same. Schwarzenegger’s opposition will make it even more difficult for conservatives to win the battle. It is true that anything that will drive conservatives to the polls will be welcome by McCain considering that his campaign is worried the most die-heart conservatives will be reluctant to support him, but I remain skeptical that this will impact the field of battle in California.

Second, gay marriage is unlikely to make that successful a comeback at the national level as well for the simple reason that John McCain is reluctant to campaign on any social issues, let alone gay marriage. If he rarely brought up abortion during the primary — though this was the one issue on which he had the most conservative record, he is even less likely to campaign on gay marriage in the general. After all, he voted against the federal marriage amendment when it came up in the Senate a few years ago. Also, Democrats are much less shy about the issue than they were in 2004, when Kerry shockingly said that he would vote in favor of the Missouri anti-gay marriage amendment if he were a Missouri resident. Both Obama and Clinton are stronger on gay rights this time, testifying to the change of climate just in the past 4 years.

Update: It looks like the new conservative strategy is the constant deferral of the decision from the legislative to the judiciary power. Here is how the New York Times describes the dissenting opinion in today’s ruling:

Justice Marvin R. Baxter, dissenting, said the majority had should have deferred to the state Legislature on whether to allow same-sex marriage, particularly given the increased legal protections for same-sex couples enacted in recent years.

“But a bare majority of this court,” Justice Baxter wrote, “not satisfied with the pace of democratic change, now abruptly forestalls that process and substitutes, by judicial fiat, its own social policy views for those expressed by the people themselves.”

Given that the legislature had legalized gay marriage, bills that had been vetoed because the Republican governor said he wanted to defer to the state Supreme Court, it’s hard to make any sense of Justice Baxter’s prescription.

SUSA releases wave of general election polls, with both Democrats displaying their usual weaknesses

Published
by
Taniel
on April 18, 2008
in AL-Pres, CA-Pres, IA-Pres, KS-Pres, KY-Pres, MA-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, NM-Pres, NY-Pres, OH-Pres, OR-Pres, VA-Pres and WI-Pres
. 13 Comments

On March 19th and March 20th, SUSA released 16 general election polls that recorded public opinion in the aftermath of the Wright controversy; in many states, Obama was found to be plunging due to his continued weakness among registered Democrats and to the departure of independents and registered Republicans.

A month has passed, and SUSA released 14 general election polls from some crucial contests today; there is some good news for all candidates in these polls, but the first thing that jumps at me is the extent to which McCain is holding strong, putting a number of Democratic states in play. Obama leads McCain by single-digits in Massachusetts, New York, and California — including a toss-up (once again) in Massachusetts.

The two Democrats are exhibiting their usual weaknesses that we notice in poll after poll. Obama has regained some of the ground he lost last month, but his at times stunning weakness among registered Democrats in places like Ohio and Missouri leaves him distanced by McCain (and Clinton). This is also also what is making states like MA and CA competitive. This weakness has been picked up over and over again by SUSA — but also by other institutes (check the most recent Quinnipiac poll from FL, OH and PA with McCain picking-up a significant number of Dem votes when he faces Obama). However small this problem might seem, it is wrong to simply assume that registered Democrats will come home; the ease with which many Dems cross-over is exactly what Clinton is talking about when she questions Obama’s electability and McCain has demonstrated his appeal among Democrats.

Meanwhile, Clinton has her own major problems. First, she comes in at dismally low number among African-American voters in most of these states. I do not always mention the results here since in many states the sample of black voters is too small to be statistically significant, but the trend is too consistent to not be revealing. In places like Virginia, Clinton cannot hope to remain competitive without rallying the African-American vote. Obama supporters, of course, contend that for Clinton to win the nomination would take such an ugly scenario that there is no way the New York Senator could regain the black vote. Second, Clinton does not as well as Obama among independents and registered Republicans in many states; in places like Oregon and Wisconsin, we have been seeing this trend for a while, as independent voters in a number of states (particularly in the West) seem to be among Clinton’s harshest critics.

And here is the run-down of the numbers:

  • The most important state polled by SUSA is undoubtedly Ohio, where Clinton opens up a very significant lead against McCain, 53% to 42%. But McCain leads Obama 47% to 45%. That’s a 5% shift towards both Democrats compared to last month, when Obama trailed by 7%.
  • Almost all the difference is due to registered Democrats, Obama carries 65%, Clinton 82%. Also, Obama loses the white vote by 12% while Clinton leads, though she underperforms among blacks (73%).
  • In Missouri, Clinton edges McCain 48% to 47% but McCain comfortably is ahead of Obama, 50% to 42%. McCain gets a full 27% of the vote of registered Democrats when paired up against Obama… which accounts for his trailing the Republican despite performing better among independents. This is actually a 6% improvement for Obama, however, compared to last month.
  • In Virginia, Obama performs better than Clinton but suffers from a significant decline: After tying McCain two straight months, he is now behind 52% to 44%. Clinton is crushed 55% to 39% — she is also tied McCain last month. This is due to Clinton’s dismal performance among blacks (60%) while Obama comes in much stronger among independents.
  • Obama’s decline in the past month is due to McCain’s closing the margin among registered Democrats by 17%.
  • In Kentucky, which is not supposed to be anywhere near the list of purple states, Clinton defies the odds by statistically tying McCain, 48% to 46%. She gets 73% of the Democratic vote. Obama trails 63% to 29% and loses the Democratic vote by a point.
  • It’s hard to believe, but that is actually an improvement: Obama lost the Democratic vote by 7% last month, at least suggesting that this is not a complete outlier.
  • In New Mexico, McCain narrowly beats both Democrats: 49% to 46% against Clinton, 49% to 44% against Obama.
  • The two Democrats are equally strong among Hispanics.
  • In Minnesota, Obama leads McCain 49% to 43%; Clinton edges him 47% to 46%. That’s a 7% improvement for the Illinois Senator.
  • In Iowa, Obama polls much better — as usual: He beats McCain 49% to 42%, while Clinton trails 48% to 42%. The difference comes from independents, among whom Clinton trails by 26%!
  • In Oregon, another bluish swing state, Clinton and McCain are in a toss-up, 47% to 46%. Obama comes in much stronger, 51% to 42%. Here again, the difference comes from independents.
  • In Wisconsin, one of the tightest states in the country, Clinton and McCain are tied at 46%. Obama edges McCain 49% to 44%. The difference is very clearly due to independent voters: Obama leads by 1%, Clinton trails by 17%.

The next category are staunchly blue states that are essential to a Democratic victory — and there are signs of troubles for Democrats, particularly in case of an Obama candidacy. The Illinois Senator looks weak in three states that constitute much of the Democratic base:

  • In Massachusetts, especially, poll after poll have shown Obama weak against McCain: This survey shows the Illinois Senator barely edging out the Republican, 48% to 46%. Clinton crushes McCain 56% to 41%. Most of the difference comes from registered Democrats: Obama gets 65%, and Clinton gets 84%. Believe it or not, this is actually a slight improvement for Obama, who was tied with McCain last month.
  • In California, Clinton beats McCain 53% to 40%; but McCain keeps Obama in single-digits, 50% to 43%. The difference here is first among women (Clinton has a 18% lead, Obama 8%) and both Democrats and independents (McCain actually leads Obama by 2% among the latter group!). That’s a 7% drop for Obama over the past month.
  • In New York, the story is very simi
    lar: Clinton crushes McCain 55% to 39%, Obama is held to single-digits, 52% to 43%. Most of the difference comes from registered Democrats (McCain trails by 17% less). Obama already led by single-digits last month.

SUSA also released a few polls from red states that aren’t competitive at all:

  • In Alabama, McCain predictably crushes both Democrats. He beats Clinton 60% to 34% and Obama 64% to 32%. Only 65% of black voters vote for Clinton, while Obama gets only 15% of white voters.
  • In Kansas, McCain beats Clinton 57% to 36% and Obama 54% to 37%. That’s an improvement for the Republican against both Democrats.

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