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GOP meltdown continues: McCain collapses in state polls, down-ballot candidates weaken

Published
by
Taniel
on October 1, 2008
in CA-04, FL-Pres, MN-Pres, MO-Pres, MS-Pres, MS-Sen, NJ-Pres, NM-02, NV-Pres, OK-Pres, OK-Sen, PA-Sen, TN-Pres, TX-Pres, TX-Sen and VA-Pres
. 10 Comments

[Updated with two more Obama leads in Florida] In the heels of the stunningly large leads Obama posted in the latest Quinnipiac polls, new surveys confirm that the situation is rapidly deteriorating for Republicans up and down the ballot as a perfect storm is boosting Democratic prospects.

While it is still too early to move any red states other than Iowa and New Mexico to the Obama column, the Democrat appears to have solidified his position in the states he is defending. A number of Michigan and Pennsylvania surveys released over the past week (including two early this morning) have Obama leading by high single-digits, and a new CNN survey finds him comfortably ahead in Minnesota and Strategic Vision shows him gaining in Wisconsin. Even if McCain regains his footing in red states in which he is slipping, does he still have an opening in those blue states or can Obama now lock them away?

The answer to that question could very well determine the result of the election: if McCain cannot even force Obama to worry about Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he would have to pull out an impressive (and at the moment highly unlikely) sweep of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Colorado! Right now, the question is McCain can even save half of those, let alone all of them.

New CNN/Time polls find him jumping to leads outside of the MoE in Florida and Virginia as well as taking an edge (within the MoE) in Nevada and… Missouri. The situation is particularly worrisome for McCain in Florida, where two other surveys this evening find Obama in the lead, making it five polls in a row, four of which were released today (PPP, Q-pac, CNN, Insider Advantage, Suffolk).

When combined with Q-pac, this roundup of the presidential polls is certainly the worst installment McCain has received in the general election. And what is remarkable is that Obama is breaking 50% in most polls that are being released - he was above that threshold in all three Q-pac polls today and here again in CNN’s polls of NV, VA, FL and MN. He is also at or above 50% in the Time, Rasmussen and Research 2000 national polls:

  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Florida (polling history). In a five-way race, Obama leads by 8% (just like the Quinnipiac survey), with 3% for Ralph Nader. Two weeks ago, the candidates were tied in a two-way race and Obama led in a five-way race. All CNN/Time polls were taken Sunday through Tuesday.
  • Obama leads 49% to 46% in an Insider Advantage poll of Florida. Obama trailed by 8% three weeks ago, so this is quite a swing in his direction.
  • Obama leads 53% to 44% in a CNN/Time poll of Virginia (polling history). McCain led by 4% three weeks ago. Obama leads by 10% in a five-way race!
  • Obama leads 51% to 47% in a CNN/Time poll of Nevada (polling history). Obama led by 5% in a late August CNN/Time poll. The margin of error is 4%.
  • Obama leads 54% to 43% in a CNN/Time poll of Minnesota (polling history). Obama already led by double-digits in the previous CNN poll taken before the GOP convention.
  • Obama leads 49% to 40% in a Strategic Vision poll of Wisconsin. He led by 3% at the beginning of September.
  • News from safer states: Obama leads 52% to 42% in a SUSA poll of New Jersey. McCain leads 64% to 34% in a SUSA poll of Oklahoma. McCain leads 58% to 39% in a Rasmussen poll of Tennessee. McCain leads by 9% for the fourth poll in a row in a Rasmussen poll of Texas. And some movement towards Obama in Mississippi, where McCain leads 52% to 44%.

Obama also maintains his advantage in national polls, with 3 non-tracking polls finding him ahead by 7%.

  • In the trackings, he leads by 10% in Research 2000, 6% in Rasmussen, 5% in Diego Hotline and 4% in Gallup (the Gallup poll has tightened by 4% in two days, rare good news for the Republican nominee).
  • Obama leads 49% to 43% in a Pew national poll. Obama led by 2% in mid-September.
  • Obama leads 49% to 45% in a Democracy Corps national poll. He led by 3% last week.
  • Obama leads 46% to 42% in an Ipsos/McClatchy national poll. The race was tied three weeks ago.
  • Obama leads 48% to 41% in an AP national poll. The most shocking internal here is Sarah Palin’s fall: 41% said she had the right experience last month, 25% say the same today.

Republicans are also in trouble in down-the-ballot races:

  • In the Texas Senate race, Sen. Cornyn leads Democratic challenger Rick Noriega 50% to 43% in the latest Rasmussen poll.
  • In the Oklahoma Senate race, Sen. Inhofe leads Democratic challenger Andrew Rice 53% to 37%, a very slight tightening since SUSA’s previous poll.
  • In PA-03, a SUSA poll finds Rep. English trailing challenger Kathy Dahlkemper 49% to 45%.
  • In conservative district NM-02, an internal poll for the Teague campaign finds the Democrat leading Ed Tinsley 46% to 41%.
  • In CA-04, the GOP candidate McClintock released a poll finding him solidly in command, 47% to 39%. This comes a day after Democratic candidate Charlie Brown released a survey showing him in the lead.

The contrasting results in CA-04 remind us that internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt, though the mere fact that Democrats are this competitive in NM-02 and CA-04 (both very Republican district) is exciting news for the DCCC. But SUSA’s poll is an independent survey and it removes any doubt that PA-03 has become a somewhat unlikely battleground. While Rep. English was long viewed as vulnerable, few people would have expected him a few months ago to be this endangered a month from the election. Consider that this is the first district the NRCC has invested in as of last night (more about that later)!

As for Senate, Cornyn was already exhibiting signs of vulnerability months ago, but Democrats made little noise about this race. This is one race that the DSCC would really need to invest in for Noriega to have any chance, and the size of the Texas makes it too expensive a contest for Democrats to just drop in and just test Cornyn’s strength. If Democrats are looking to continue expanding the field of play, Georgia and Kentucky look like more promising options.

Poll watch: Obama up in pre-debate trackings, McConnell and Porter in danger

Published
by
Taniel
on September 27, 2008
in CA-04, CT-Pres, FL-13, IA-Pres, KY-Sen, LA-Pres, LA-Sen, MI-07, NV-03, NY-Leg, Nat-Poll and SC-Sen
. 6 Comments

As we now wait to see whether the first debate will move any numbers (and perhaps fulfill the 1980 parallel I have talked about before), any presidential poll released this week-end should be seen as a baseline to see whether either candidate receives a bounce since most will have been in the field before the debate. That’s why we will exceptionally start with some down-the-ballot surveys in today’s poll watch:

  • In what is the most shocking of the day’s polls, Mason Dixon finds the Kentucky Senate race is a dead heat: McConnell leads 45% to 44%, and the race is tied when leaners are not included.
  • In more good news for Southern Democrats, Rasmussen shows Mary Landrieu cruising. She leads John Kennedy 54% to 41% in what is one of the least polled Senate races of the cycles. Landrieu led by 17% in August.
  • McCain’s best friend Lindsay Graham leads 51% to 42% against “Democrat” Bob Conley in a Research 2000 poll of South Carolina’s Senate race.
  • In what is the day’s most instructive new House poll, an incumbent Republican (NV-03’s Porter) released an internal poll in which he only leads 41% to 39%. This is a response to Dona Titus’s survey earlier this week that showed her leading by 9%.
  • In CA-04, a Research 2000 poll finds Democrat Charlie Brown with a narrow lead over Tom McClintock, 46% to 41%. This is a very conservative district, and an open seat.
  • In FL-13, an internal poll for the Jennings campaign finds the Democrat trailing Rep. Buchanan 44% to 40%.
  • In MI-07, Tim Walberg released an internal poll showing him leading 50% to 40% to contest the internal released by his opponent two days ago which showed him trailing by 6%. But Walberg’s poll only sampled 300 voters, with a very large margin of error of 5.7%.
  • For those interested in the crucial battle for New York’s state Senate, Siena polled six of the most competitive districts (how often do we see independent polls released for state legislature races) and finds that Democrats are in a good position to finally take the majority but that Republicans have a fighting chance.
  • Also, SUSA finds that California voters approve 52% to 36% of a proposition that would institute a 48-hour waiting period for minors to have an abortion after their parents are told.

Any time an incumbent thinks that it is a good thing to be getting 41% in an internal poll, you know that they are in real trouble. Porter’s internal is as damning for him than Titus’s internal poll was the other day because it shows that Porter’s campaign is now so worried that he is falling behind that they are looking to celebrate a poll with a 5% margin of error that shows their candiate stuck in the low 40s.

But the day’s most important congressional survey is undoubtedly Mason Dixon’s shocker from Kentucky’s Senate race. Early this week, SUSA released a poll that found a 3% race, which led me to wonder whether Democrats could make Kentucky into their 10th competitive seat. Mason Dixon’s survey answers in the affirmative, and the Senate Minority Leader is finding himself in a real fight. The DSCC has not yet invested in the race, probably since Lunsford can take care of himself and self-fund his campaign; but McConnell remains a formidable candidate with a large war chest and an entrenched incumbent with a well-oiled machine, so national Democrats would probably need to get involved at some point. Also, Lunsford will have to overcome the coattails of the presidential race, which were fatal to Mongiardo in 2004.

But however much Democrats still have work to do, Kentucky’s emergence as a tight battleground in the Senate battle is very worrisome news for the GOP.

Meanwhile, in presidential polling:

  • The day’s trackings were favorable to Obama, though even Friday night’s samples were almost entirely taken before the presidential debate. And for once, all trackings show very similar results! Obama leads by 5% in Gallup (49% to 44%) and Diego Hotline (48% to 43%), by 6% in Rasmussen (50% to 44%) and Research 2000 (49% to 43%).
  • Obama leads 51% to 43% in a Rasmussen poll of Iowa. He led by 5% last month.
  • Obama leads 54% to 38% in a SUSA poll of Connecticut.

These tracking polls might not tell us much about the reaction to the debate, but they underscore that (1) McCain doesn’t appear to have benefited from his Wednesday afternoon gamble, and (2) that it was important it was for McCain to score a game-changer last night. He needed to do what John Kerry succeeded in doing in 2004, when Kerry went in the debate trailing widely and managed to close the gap thanks to the first debate, entering October in a very competitive position. I don’t believe (and neither did the first snap polls) that he succeeded in doing so.

More polls: Dead heats in key states, McCain leads in OH, Dem opening in KY-03 and CA-04

Published
by
Taniel
on September 8, 2008
in AK-Pres, CA-04, CO-Pres, FL-Pres, KY-03, OH-Pres, PA-Pres and VA-Pres
. 6 Comments

The two-week state polling embargo seems to finally be broken! After the day’s first polling wave showed McCain enjoying a bounce nationally but the race remaining stable in the key battlegrounds of Michigan, Virginia and Colorado, more surveys released by Rasmussen confirm that neither candidate is catching a clear break in swing states. All the Rasmussen polls were conducted exclusively on Sunday (one-day polling is generally frowned upon, especially on a week-end) and carry a relatively large margin of error of 4,5%:

  • In Colorado (polling history), Obama leads 49% to 46%. He leads by 10% among independents. Last month, McCain was up by 1%.
  • In Ohio (polling history), McCain has a solid 51% to 44% lead. Last month, McCain led by 5%. Obama has two problems: He only has 78% of the Democratic vote and he trails by 26% among independents! (Note that this is the third Rasmussen poll in a row to find McCain with a big lead in Ohio, something no other polling outlet has found.)
  • In Florida (polling history), it’s a tie at 48%. Obama has a big lead among independents, but he is here again weak among his base (79%). Last month, McCain led by 2%.
  • In Pennsylvania (polling history), Obama has a 2% lead, 47% to 45%. He led by 3% last month. Here again, Obama must solidify his Democratic base: he is only at 74%.
  • In Virginia (polling history), McCain is up 49% to 47%. That’s only a 1% improvement over August.
  • Finally, a last state poll came from SUSA in Washington. SUSA finds Obama’s lead collapsing to only 4% - down from 8% in August and 16% in July.
  • Finally, the Alaska poll commissioned by the NRSC that I blogged about earlier also contained presidential numbers, and confirms that McCain is now ahead, 55% to 34%. This also means that the NRSC’s New Hampshire poll is the only one for which presidential numbers were not released (contrary to Colorado and AK), further suggesting that the NH numbers might not have been good for McCain.

To recap: There is almost no movement in any of these states. Colorado moves by 4% in Obama’s direction, and Florida by 2%. Ohio moves by 2% in McCain’s direction, while Virginia and Pennsylvania move by 1%. All these margins (but Ohio’s) and trend lines are well within the margin of error. If anything, the most worrisome result for Obama comes from Washington, and that’s not a state in which McCain has any investment for now.

In other words, the electoral college situation seems largely unmoved after the two conventions, and there is much less movement in the key battlegrounds than in national polls. This is certainly not inexplicable: While veepstakes and convention coverage happens in a vacuum in states like Maryland or Texas (thus amplifying its impact), it is largely drowned by an army of volunteers and millions worth of ads in states like Ohio and Virginia.

Furthermore, keep in mind that if Obama keeps Michigan and Pennsylvania (and he has led in every survey from both states all summers) and lives out his advantage in Iowa and New Mexico (which are currently both leaning Democratic), any of the other four states polled by Rasmussen would be enough to put Obama over the top. That is not to say that Obama is in any way assured of victory, just to point out that the election is still being waged on red territory. That’s in some sense good for both candidates: The states McCain needs to win have leaned Republican in past elections, and Obama can concentrate on offense.

Meanwhile, we got two House polls:

  • In CA-04, an internal poll for the Charlie Brown campaign has him with a narrow lead against Republican McClintock, 43% to 41%. That’s obviously well within the margin of error.
  • In KY-03, a SUSA poll finds Rep. Yarmuth keeping a lead against former Rep. Anne Northup, 53% to 45%. Yarmuth led by 10% two months ago.

Neither district is considered to be in the top-tier of competitive House races, as both are currently rated lean retention. It would be nice to see independent polling in CA-04 to see how much of a shot Brown really has in this conservative district. In KY-03, Yarmuth might be the incumbent but Northup cannot be regarded as a complete challenger considering she was a longtime representative of the district and she mounted an unsuccesful gubernatorial run in 2007.

DCCC reserves time in 20 new districts, drawing an increasingly clear House map

Published
by
Taniel
on July 22, 2008
in AL-02, AL-05, AZ-08, CA-04, CA-11, FL-18, FL-21, FL-25, ID-01, IL-10, IL-11, IL-14, KY-03, LA-04, MO-06, MS-01, NY-20, NY-25, NY-26 and WA-08
. 2 Comments

Two weeks ago, I marveled at the DCCC’s announcement that it was reserving more than $30 million of air time in more than 30 House races. Yesterday, I described the DSCC’s investments in the Maine Senate race and noted the Democrats’ huge fundraising advantage. Within hours came the news that the DCCC had reserved an additional $18 million in 20 new districts, for a total of $53 million of air time reserved in 51 districts, 34 of which are currently held by the GOP.

Remember, this is not actually a buy on the DCCC’s buy - only a reservation - and the committee can very well renounce airing any ads, but the depth of this list is a testament to the depth of the House playing field. And consider that the $53 million the DCCC has reserved is within the committee’s $58 million of cash on hand at the end of June. In other words, if they give up spending plans in some of these districts (as they probably will in NY-13, for instance, since Democrats seem much safer in that GOP-held district than many of the party’s incumbents), it will not be because of financial constraints but because the race no longer seems competitive.

What is interesting about this round of buys (the full list is available here) is that it contains both districts that remain long shots for Democrats and where the DCCC is interested in expanding the map, and districts that are relatively safe for the Democratic candidate:

  • In the first category are $1.4 million in FL-18, FL-21 and FL-25, all part of the same Miami market. The three districts are held by well-established Republican incumbents, but Democrats are mounting a strong offensive, particularly in the 21st and 25th districts.
  • Also in the first category are a combined $1 million in AL-02 and ID-01, two extremely conservative districts that Democrats are hoping to wrestle away. The former is an open seat, the latter is competitive because of the incumbent’s controversial nature. Both districts have relatively cheap media markets, meaning that the ads will be seen often for the amount of money that is being spent. And while CA-04 are LA-04 less dramatically conservative, they are still clearly Republican districts and they would not be competitive in a neutral year.
  • Next, the DCCC is eyeing a number of districts that are considered to be leaning Democratic, including Dem-held seats in AZ-08 and more than $1 million in IL-14, and even some GOP-held open seats like IL-11 (a reservation of $1.6 million) and NY-25. It’s a safe bet that some if not all of these reservations will be canceled in the coming months as there is little chance that the GOP will force a seat like IL-14 (or even NY-13 and VA-11, which were in the previous target list) to be competitive.
  • Finally, there are the obvious targets, those that everyone expects to be very competitive and that were just overlooked in the previous DCCC reservations. Those include the GOP held MO-06, NJ-03, NY-26, NY-29, IL-10 and WA-08 and, AL-05, MS-01 and CA-11, where Democratic seats are endangered (the DCCC has reserved a lot of time for a modest amount of money in Alabama’s seat).
  • The 3 upstate New York seats deserve a particular attention because of how much money the DCCC has reserved ($2.7M for all three in the same media market) and the amount of advertising that allows in this relatively less expensive market. If the DCCC no longer wants to spend that money on NY-25, which is among the top 2-3 likely pick-ups for Democrats, the party’s candidates in NY-26 and NY-29 will be very lucky. Another interesting reservation in NJ-03, an expensive district to run ads in and where the DCCC seems willing to spend $1.7 million (which buys a third as many ads with three times as much money than in, say, AL-02)!

Of course, the buys in some of these districts are relatively small and unlikely to cost Republicans the race by themselves. But most of these districts host races that the NRCC and its meager $8 million of cash on hand will be completely unable to defend. Republican incumbents in these red-leaning districts are completely on their own and they might find themselves swamped under Democratic spending. Indeed, whatever the DCCC spends of these $53 million of reserved buys can be consider experimental expenses to test the grounds and see how vulnerable incumbents like Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18 are.

If the DCCC keeps up its fundraising of $10 million/month, it will still have more than $30 million to spend on some of these races - and much more in the likely scenario that it cancels its reservation on some of the safer seats of the list (NY-13, IL-14).

Given how positive the environment is for Democrats and how much of a money advantage they have, it would be political malpractice for them to not expand the map as much as possible. But for them to signal their willingness - and financial capability - to contest in 34 GOP-held districts while defending 17 vulnerable seats is a remarkable feat. And you can be sure that there are seats beyond these 34 GOP-held districts that Republicans should worry about.

In related House news, SUSA’s latest survey from KY-03 gives the advantage to the incumbent Democrat:

  • Rep. Yarmuth leads former Rep. Anne Northup 53% to 43%. He led by 17% in the previous SUSA poll, so this is an improvement for Northup.

Northup is a strong contender who served in this district for a long time until her surprise defeat in 2006. She is the best challenger the GOP could hope for in this district, but she is unable to push Yarmuth under the 50% threshold. An internal poll her campaign released last month also had the incumbent above 50%, so the race remains competitive but the advantage belongs to the Democrat.

Down-the-ballot: Graves continues gay-baiting, Dole and Udall leading

Published
by
Taniel
on June 2, 2008
in CA-04, IL-11, MO-06, NC-Gov, NC-Sen and NM-Sen
. 1 Comment

The race in Missouri’s 6th congressional district has become heated surprisingly early. Two weeks after he first aired an ad attacking his opponent’s “San Fransisco values” and featuring disco dancing, Sam Graves is at it again, hitting Kay Barnes with an ad linking her to San Fransisco values for the second time. Accusing Barnes of supporting the gay agenda by using colorful pictures (whose production looks rather amateurish), the ad once again juxtaposes the video of a (San Fransisco?) party with footage of Graves walking down a suburban street with his wife and children:

For Graves to air a second ad so soon after the first despite the controversy and the strongly-worded response Barnes unleashed suggests that his campaign has at least some indication that the ad is working or that it is generating talk beneficial to the GOP. As Barnes is the former Mayor of Kansas City, tarnishing her image in the rural parts of the district could be good enough for Republicans to retain this seat.

The rest of the day’s congressional news is polling-based, starting with PPP’s latest release from North Carolina:

  • In the Senate race, Elizabeth Dole has stopped the bleeding and regained minimal ground, as she is ahead 47% to 39% versus 48% to 43% in the previous poll.
  • In the gubernatorial race, Beverly Perdue is barely ahead of Charlotte Mayor McCrory, 43% to 39%, in what is shaping to be one of the few competitive governor’s contests of the year.

Despite the small uptick, Dole remains vulnerable as she leads by single-digits and under 50%. More importantly, the race has now caught the DSCC’s attention and Democrats know they have the potential to stun Republicans in this state, guaranteeing that they will show attention and resources to Hagan’s campaign. However, this poll also points out to the advantage of incumbency and being a better-funded candidate, as Dole has been airing her first ads of the cycle over the past few weeks and the adblitz might be helping her stop Hagan’s momentum.

Meanwhile, SUSA released a poll from New Mexico’s Senate race that confirms that this is one of the strongest pick-up opportunities for Democrats:

  • Tom Udall defeats Heather Wilson 60% to 36% and similarly crushes Steve Pearce 61% to 35%. He has been leading by such margins for months now.
  • In the primary that is taking place tomorrow, it is a fight to the finish between the two Republicans, with Wilson at 47% and Pearce at 48%.

It’s hard to believe that one of those major New Mexico figures will have his or her political career ended tomorrow, when New Mexico Republicans go to the polls to select their nominee and put an end to a very hard-fought and at times brutal race. It’s even harder to believe that both GOP House members gave up their seats to run for a Senate seat in which they are trailing so badly. More on tomorrow’s primaries tomorrow night.

Finally, we also got two House polls today, an exciting development given those tend to be more rare. Both surveys are internal polls taken for the Democratic candidate, so take them with the appropriate grain of salt:

  • In CA-04, a Benenson poll finds toss-up contests in a Republican stronghold that is now an open seat, as Charlie Brown narrowly edges two Republicans, 38% to 34% against Dough Ose and 42% to 40% and Tom McClintock.
  • In IL-11, another GOP-held open seat that Democrats are looking to pick-up, an Anzalone-Litz poll released by the Halvorson campaign shows her to be leading 43% to 32% against Martin Ozlinga despite the presence of a green party candidate that gets 6% of the vote.

IL-11 is one of the Democrats’ strongest pick-up opportunities, as the GOP had to settle on Ozlinga after their nominee dropped out after the primary and after a slate of state Senators still refused to jump in the race. Halvorson is one of the DCCC’s strongest recruits and that she is so far ahead with a third-party candidate polling so strongly should comfort Democrats. In CA-04, meanwhile, Brown was favored to win the race as long as Rep. Doolittle, hit by corruption scandals, was in the race. But the district is very Republican, and Brown has a tougher shot at the open seat and at getting from 38% and 42% to a majority of the vote. McClintock and Ose are hitting at each other in an ideologically split primary, whose nastiness is one important ray of hope for the Brown campaign.

Congressional diary: Good news for the GOP in California, Mississippi and North Carolina

Published
by
Taniel
on January 10, 2008
in CA-04, MS-Sen and NC-Gov
. 2 Comments

Now that Iowa and New Hampshire have voted, there is a bit more time to look into down-the-ballot races. And Republicans just got some great congressional news over the past week.

  • CA-04: Doolittle is out

Rep. Doolittle from CA-04 has finally decided to retire, which is truly amazing news for House Republicans. Doolittle is under investigation for his connections to Jack Abramoff and the judicial pressure was intensifying in recent months with a raid to his house and grand jury subpoenas. As a result, Doolittle was insured to go down to defeat next November against Democratic candidate Brown who barely lost in 2006. I have been rating the district Lean Democratic for a few months now in my House ratings.

CA-04 is heavily Republican territory and the GOP knew that it would have infinitely less trouble keeping the seat if Doolittle retired or was forced out by the pressure of the investigation. But Doolittle was showing no indication of backing down and was vowing to press forward past the primary and the general election. Now, Republicans got what they want and have to be considered the overwhelming favorites to retain the district. My House ratings will be updated soon accordingly.

Democrats still have some chance of keeping this competitive; after all, Brown already ran once before so he is starting to build some name recognition. And 2006 showed that Democrats could win in districts with ethically challenged representatives even when the incumbent ended up withdrawing, the obvious example being OH-18 where Rep. Ney withdrew in September and was quickly replaced, with the GOP celebrating that they could finally hope to keep the seat. Democrat Zach Space ended up crushing his opponent. CA-04 is not OH-18, however. Not only is Doolittle not indicted yet, but he is retiring in January rather than withdrawing from the ballot at the last minute.

  • MS-Sen: More than one Democrat

Democrats breathed a sigh of relief last week when former Governor Musgrove jumped in the Mississippi Senate special election against newly-appointed Senator Wicker. But they now have another candidate who has jumped in the race, former Rep. Ronnie Snows who lost his House seat in 2002 when MS lost a congressional seat and Snows could not hold his redrawn district.

This would not be a problem under normal conditions, as Snows and Musgrove would just face off in a primary– and there is little evidence that competitive primaries hurt the party come the general election as long as competitors don’t get too nasty. But this contest is a special election, which means that it does not have a primary but a runoff-system. All candidates from any party will be on the same ballot and the top two will go to a runoff if no one gets 50%. In other words, the division of the Democratic vote makes it impossible for either Snows or Musgrove to win this in the first round and the party will have to find a way to keep Wicker under 50% in that first voting. The problem of course is that Democrats will aim much of their fire at each other, allowing Wicker to get more of a free pass than he would otherwise and thus try and aim for a majority outright (one recent example of this dynamic is the 2006 special election in CA-50, a very Republican district, where Democrat Busby almost got 50% in the first round in a field with many Republican candidates who were pounding each other, but then was much further from victory in the runoff).

  • NC-Gov: Republicans now have a serious shot

Despite its being an open-seat, the North Carolina gubernatorial contest was looking to be an easy hold for Democrats. The incumbent party is running two strong candidates — Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore — and Republicans were counting on weaker candidates that have little chance of prevailing given NC’s blue coloring in local elections.

But that could all soon change as Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory is taking the first steps towards jumping in the race for the GOP nomination. McCrory could be a much stronger candidate than the other GOPers in the race, and a recent Rasmussen poll showed him leading both Moore and Perdue. The governorship has been in Democratic hands for 16 years now, but this could become one of the hottest gubernatorial races of 2008 (which, to be fair, is not saying much).

Republicans quit congressional races, bringing mixed news for the GOP

Published
by
Taniel
on November 21, 2007
in CA-04, NE-Sen, NJ-07, NY-19 and NY-26
. 0 Comments

Strange day of news in congressional races today, as it was marked by report after report that Republicans were not running for seats or were ending their campaigns. In two cases (NE-Sen, CA-04, though the latter is only a rumor), the news is good for Republicans; and in two (NJ-07 and NY-19) it is good for Democrats.

  • Bruning exits the stage in Nebraska

Democrats thought they would have a great shot at the Nebraska Senate race when Hagel announced he would not run for re-election, and I ranked the seat 4th most vulnerable in the October Senate rankings. But everything has gone wrong for Democrats since then (the race was downgraded to 13th by November), and here is one more thing you can add to that list. Nebraska’s Attorney General Jon Bruning was running in the GOP primary against former Governor Mike Johanns, and a bloody primary on the Republican side had become one of the last (faint) Democratic hopes of pulling an upset here.

But today, Bruning announced he was retiring from the race. Only 39, Bruning has plenty of time before him to upgrade (though there probably won’t be an open Senate or governor’s seat for a little while) and he was attracting ill-will of the party by making life difficult for the candidate the party wants to coronate. Johanns is now the certain Republican nominee, and can prepare for the general election… He will face only token opposition there, except if Democrats manage to convince their third choice, Steve Kleeb to run. And even then they face very low odds.

  • Doolittle on his way out?

This is the one item on this list that is only a rumor as of yet, but one that is becoming persistent. A California blog is reporting that Doolittle might finally have decided to retire. CA-04 has become one of the GOP’s worst nightmares. It is a very Republican seat that the party would have little problem holding as an open seat but Doolittle is so ethically challenged that he has practically no chance of winning a re-election race if he persists in running. The GOP wants to believe he will retire, but Doolittle has been very firm in saying he is going nowhere — which has made CA-04 one of the only “Lean Takeover” seats in my House rankings. But if this rumor is confirmed the GOP would breath a huge sigh of relief.

  • No more candidate in NY-19

Republicans had made freshman Rep. John Hall one of their top targets and considered candidate Andrew Saul one of its top recruitment coups next year. Saul was one of the challengers who had raised the most money as of the end of September, and his presumed strength had led many to classify Hall as very endangered in this Republican-leaning district.

But Saul was reported today to have dropped out of the race, leaving the GOP without a challenger in what they consider a top priority! Saul did not give a specific reason but to cite “personal reasons.” This is obviously a huge blow to Republicans, who must now hurry to find a top-tier challenger to keep this competitive. And even if they do, they have lost the half-million Saul had already raised and will start off as a significant disadvantage. Hall just got a lot more safer tonight.

  • No one wants to run in NJ-07

The seat Ferguson retired from yesterday is turning out to be yet another recruitment nightmare for Republicans. The two candidates I mentioned yesterday announced they were not running within 24 hours. First, Tom Kean, who many considered the strongest possible candidate (I had already reported this yesterday).

Today, former Rep. Tom Franks says he will not run for the seat. He was quickly followed by a third Republican I did not mention myself but who was on everyone’s list, state Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick. Bramnick also declined to run, saying there was more a Republican can do in Trenton than in Washington right now.

This is the same scneario that played out in OH-15 and in IL-11, where Republicans just were not going any top-tier candidates in open seats they had to defend. They managed to find someone in OH-15, but not really in IL-11. NJ-07 is a very competitive district under normal circumstances, so the GOP has to do some great recruitment effort in the next few days or weeks to salvage the situation.

  • At least one Republican says he is staying!

Rumors had been circulating that Rep. Tom Reynolds (from NY) might be retiring next year, which would create yet another headache for the GOP. Though his seat is not the tightest of districts, Republicans are already dealing with enough problems as it is. But Reynolds’s camp said today that he has no intention to retire and he will run next year.

North Carolina and Nebraska Dems looking for a candidate, CA GOP looking to get rid of one

Published
by
Taniel
on October 26, 2007
in CA-04, IL-06, NC-Sen, NE-Sen and NM-01
. 0 Comments
  • Recruitment failures in North Carolina and Nebraska

Democrats are particularly unhappy with the state of the race in North Carolina. They believe Dole is very vulnerable, but they have been unable to find a strong candidate to oppose her after countless recruitment failures (Gov. Easley the most notable). Now, the only candidate in the race is investment banker Jim Neal. While a poll yesterday found him trailing Dole by only 15% and holding her under 50%, national Democrats are unlikely to pay much attention to a Dole-Neal match-up and want another candidate to jump in. At this point, any elected official would do the trick. And it looks like they might succeed, as state Senator Kay Hagan (who had passed on the race earlier) is reconsidering.

Meanwhile in Nebraska, Democrats are still recovering from Bob Kerrey’s refusal to join the open seat race — and trying to find another candidate. Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey would be their preferred choice, as he appears to be the only one that could make this race competitive (though he would definitely start as an underdog against former Governor Johanns). Today, the Omaha World-Herald reports that Fahey will decide within 30 days, but that he is not enthused at all by run. If Fahey declines, Dems would be left asking Steve Kleeb, a young democrat who ran a competitive House race in 2006. Kleeb would make the race interesting, but would hardly be a match for Johanns.

  • Doolittle investigation stepping up

A few days after the first Republican congressman called for Doolittle to retire, the plot thickens in CA-04. The chief administrator of the House has been issued a subpoena of e-mails relating to Doolittle, in a sure sign that the investigation into Doolittle’s ties to Abramoff is picking up steam. This would definitely give fodder to the Republican leadership that is trying to get Doolittle to retire. CA-04 is very Republican, so an open seat would favor the GOP. But Doolittle would surely lose his re-election race. Doolittle has said for now he will run again for sure — but how much longer can he hold on in the face of these revelations?

  • New Democrat in IL-06, one less in NM-01

Patricia Madrid, the Democratic nominee in NM-01 in 2006 who lost by 861 votes to Heather Wilson, will not run again in 2008. The former state Attorney General was rumored first for the open Senate seat, and then for the open House seat — but she is staying out of it this cycle. It is unclear how much this hurts Democratic chances, as the party still has a strong candidate (Martin Heinrich) — but Madrid is definitely the better-known and probably the stronger of the two. At least this means that the Democratic primary will be less divisive than at first thought.

Meanwhile, the DCCC is looking to compete in IL-06 against freshman Republican Peter Roskam. This was one of the most expansive races in 2006, as the DCCC wasted millions in supporting Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth who was running without the support of local activists. Roskam won with 51%. This time, the Democrats are fielding… another veteran, Jill Morgenthaler. This looks for now as a sure recipe for a replay of 2006. Morgenthaler was the Army’s press contact during the Abu Graib scandal… not the best way for the DCCC to endear itself to local liberal activists.

Doolittle closer to the door, Craig slipping back in

Published
by
Taniel
on September 30, 2007
in AL-02, CA-04 and ID-Sen
. 0 Comments
  • Rep. Doolittle and his aides subpoenaed

Doolittle is shaping up to be the Ted Stevens of the House, and not just because his house was also searched by FBI agents. Doolittle is under investigation for his connections to lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and news keeps strolling in about allegations against him. This week, Doolittle and six of his aides were subpoenaed, in part for 11 years of records that could establish what kind of relationship he and his wife entertained with Abramoff. This clearly indicates that the Justice Department is showing no sign of slowing down the investigation, and that news like this will constantly come in over the next few months.

Doolittle has decided to not obey the subpoena, and fight it in court, arguing that this is a breach of the separation of powers. Whether or not he succeeds at this, the court fight will likely take months and be a very costly distraction for Doolittle who intends to run for re-election.

Such developments are actually great news for the Republican Party. The GOP’s worst nightmare is to end up with Doolittle as its nominee. CA-04 leans heavily Republican and an open seat would almost certainly favor the Republican candidate. But with Doolittle weighted down by corruption charges, Democrats are confident they will pick-up the seat. Doolittle said a few weeks ago that he fully intends to run for re-election, but he has to survive a very contested primary first. The Republican Party sure is hoping that Doolittle either resigns or loses the primary, and news like this subpoena make such an outcome much more likely.

  • Expanding the map to AL-02

When Republican Rep. Terry Everett announced he was retiring last week, I did not even bother mentioning it here. AL-02 is a very Republican district, and it seemed unthinkable the Democrats would want to compete for the seat when they have so many other opportunities more ripe for pick-up. But TPM reports that the DCCC is very seriously looking at this seat, and trying to recruit some top-notch candidates: Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (Bright seems to have been approached by both the GOP and Democrats; and though he appears to have more ties with the Democratic Party, what does that say about his politics?) and the state’s Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, who had considered jumping in the (non-open) Senate race earlier this year. If Democrats manage to make districts like this one competitive, it would wear out even more the already very thin Republican resources.

  • Larry Craig keeps us guessing

Has Senator Craig now entirely given up on his intention to resign at the end of the month? A few days ago, it appeared that Craig would not resign on September 30th as he had said he would, and that he would wait for the MN judge to render a decision (probably some time next week) on whether Craig can withdraw his guilty plea. But Craig’s lawyer has just implied that the Senator’s ultimate decision has nothing to do with the judge’s decision. Here is the relevant exchange between MSNBC’s Chris Matthews and Stanley Brand:

MATTHEWS: Stan Brand, is your sense that the senator may well be able to hang on until the end of his term?

BRAND: I — think that’s conceivable, especially if he gets some type of relief in Minnesota. But I don’t think it depends on that.

Is it even worth asking what it would depend on anymore, given how many stunning turns this story has taken so far?