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Michigan’s gubernatorial field gets thinner, California’s might too

Published
by
Taniel
on April 10, 2009
in CA-10, CA-Gov and MI-Gov
. 1 Comment

California: LG Garamendi considers running for the House

From the Golden State comes the surprising news that Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is considering running in the special election that will be held later this year to fill the seat of outgoing Rep. Ellen Tauscher. “A number of people suggested I consider this seat,” he said. “Of course, I will check it out.” He did add, however, that “I am focused on California and my campaign for governor.”

Garamendi was the first California Democrat to announce that he would run in the state’s open gubernatorial race. While he is definitely in the running to win the nomination, he is overshadowed by heavyweights like Attorney General Jerry Brown, San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Two recent primary polls showed him trailing his competitors, polling at 8% in a Lake Research poll and at 4% in a Field poll.

Garamendi’s name recognition is far lower that of Brown, Newsom and Villaraigosa - which means that he has much more room to grow as long as he is successful enough at fundraising to keep up with his rivals financially. Yet, it must be frustrating for a Lieutenant Governor to only receive 4% in a gubernatorial poll - and that surely explains why Garamendi might be looking for other directions he might take his career.

For Garamendi to run in the special election would not close the door to a gubernatorial run: The special election will be held in the coming months, so he could jump right back in the statewide race if he loses in CA-10. That said, he would undoubtedly be wounded - probably fatally so. It is difficult to see how Garamendi can run as a credible gubernatorial candidate just a few months after losing a primary race for a House seat.

Thus, Garamendi should think about this carefully and he should remember that CA-10 will not be easy for him: State Senator Mark DeSaulnier is already up and running, and he has already received the backing of Rep. Ellen Tauscher. Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan is also considered a likely candidate. (Tauscher is a a centrist while CA-10 is a staunchly blue district, so this could be an opportunity for liberals to move the caucus leftward a bit - as I explained last month. I am unable to find much about DeSaulnier’s profile, and Tauscher’s endorsement looks to be an attempt to bestow establishment support on his candidacy.)

Michigan: Patterson is out

At first glance, L. Brooks Patterson does not seem like the most imposing of candidates Republican could field in Michigan’s open gubernatorial race: The executive of Oakland County would have to run against the state’s Attorney General and a sitting U.S. Representative. Yet, Patterson is a well-known commodity who has led one of the state’s most populous counties since 1992 (he is currently serving his fifth term), and the only poll of the GOP primary released so far had him leading the pack! As such, Patterson’s decision to forgo a gubernatorial run is an important development in Michigan politics, and it certainly shakes up the Republican field.

Patterson would have made a strong candidate because he is removed from the two centers of powers: Washington and Lansing. At a time of economic crisis - and Michigan is certainly worst hit than most states - voters come to distrust the establishment, and Rep. Hoekstra and Attorney General Cox will have trouble if they try to portray themselves as outsider figures who will shake up the system. Patterson’s exit thus provides an opening for another Republican who has not served in the federal or state government and can motivate conservative activists by promising to take back the party. Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon, who is considered a likely candidate but has yet to make his plans clear, could be such a candidate.

CQ also points out that Patterson shares the same geographical base (Detroit suburbs) as Cox, while Hoekstra is in Western Michigan. Patterson’s exit will also cuts Hoekstra’s hopes of winning the nomination because his opponents split Eastern Michigan.

With 2010 around the corner, Governors are in precarious situation

Published
by
Taniel
on March 23, 2009
in CA-Gov, NJ-Gov, NV-Gov, NY-Gov, OH-Gov and Spitzer
. 0 Comments

A year has passed since Eliot Spitzer’s sudden downfall, and the former Governor’s rehabilitation efforts are getting more successful: The Nation editor Katrina vanden Heuvel just called for Spitzer’s appointment to the Treasury Department! Meanwhile, Spitzer is writing columns for Slate - and one of his recent pieces explains why the country’s Governors are facing a very difficult situation:

The numbers from the states are downright horrifying—and getting worse. The best estimate is that states, nearly all of which are constitutionally obligated to balance their budgets, collectively face deficits of about $350 billion over the next 30 months. That is about 20 percent of total state spending. … The three major revenue streams for states—personal income tax, corporate income tax, and sales tax—all had declines, and the trend line suggests worse declines to come.

With about 50 percent of all spending dedicated to these almost inviolate purposes, and another 20 percent or so allocated to debt service, corrections, transportation, and public assistance, it begins to become evident that finding cuts of 10 percent is easier to editorialize about than to effectuate… As the elected officials charged with paying for essential services using revenue sources that are directly correlated to economic cycles, governors have no easy remedies, and not even many hard ones.

Spitzer’s point might not be terribly original, but it is the opportunity to delve into an issue that has become increasingly apparent over the past few months. Poll after poll show that Governors across the country and from both parties are seeing their approval ratings decline. Budgetary discussions are proving arduous in most states, putting Governors in tough spots as they try to navigate often hostile state legislatures and requirements that budgets be balanced. In many states, Governors are cutting funds for critical programs, freezing wages, laying off workers; that many are reluctant to increase taxes on upper-incomes is further complicating the situation.

Heading into the 2010 cycle, this could spell disaster for incumbent Governors who are up for re-election; even those who are able to keep decent approval rating could see their numbers fall as the crisis deepens over the next year.

The one thing that could mitigate the consequences of this situation is that 17 Governors are barred from seeking re-election in 2010 due to term-limit laws, leaving their seat open and allowing their party to run encumbered by the weight of incumbency. On the other hand, non-incumbent candidates could very well be dragged down at the polls because they belong to the same party as the state’s Governor. In particular, this is a problem for Michigan Lieutenant Governor John Cherry, who could very well find himself blamed for the state’s severe economic crisis.

California’s Republican nominee could face a similar situation. Earlier this year, the Golden State was on the verge of bankruptcy, and the state has taken dramatic measures like forcing 200,000 employees to take one day of unpaid leave every month. The gridlock over the state’s budget revealed Arnold Schwarzenegger’s weakness, as he didn’t even any authority on members of his own party. A recent Field poll showed that 52% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Schwarzenegger and that Democrats and Republicans have turned against him. Not only do such numbers hurt whoever the GOP nominates to replace him, but they are also a fatal blow to Schwarzenegger’s hopes of challenging Senator Barbara Boxer.

As for those Governors who are expected to run for re-election in 2009 and 2010, those most affected by the situation are most obviously New York’s David Paterson and New Jersey’s Jon Corzine, both of whom have had to deal with difficult budgetary discussions.

In New York, Paterson’s poll numbers are catastrophic. A recent survey found his approval rating down to 29%, with most dissatisfied respondents citing reasons related to the state’s fiscal woes. He is angering Democrats by refusing to raise taxes on the rich; he has reversed himself on a slate of hikes he had proposed as a replacement; and he is attracting criticism for conducting budget negotiations in complete secrecy. Perhaps most damaging, Paterson has come to be viewed as ineffective and disorganized - a reputation tabloid covers promote and that a new report on his days in the state legislature will only worsen. Meanwhile, potential primary rival Andrew Cuomo has managed to get a political boost from the financial mess by putting himself on the front lines of the fight against the AIG bonuses.

In New Jersey, Corzine’s situation is arguably in an even deeper hole than Paterson as he has to face voters this November, leaving him little time to recover. (Two recent polls found him with an approval rating of 33% and 40% and trailing Republican candidate Chris Christie by 15% and 9%.) Perhaps more damaging than his decision to raise the income tax (however much newspapers complain, how much of a backlash could Corzine suffer for increasing the rate of those who make more than $500,000?) are the wage freeze on state workers, the 9% cut from last year’s budget and the fact that Corzine is reversing himself. That makes him look like he has no firm idea of how to resolve the crisis; while that might very well be true, it’s never good to show it.

As for Nevada’s Jim Gibbons, his approval ratings were already disastrous before the economic crisis worsened, but whatever hopes he had to recover in time for the 2010 midterms are now vanishing in thin air. Nevada’s political discussion over the fiscal crisis has been particularly chaotic, and Gibbons has displayed little political leadership. State workers have seen their pay cut, though Gibbons’s political advisers are benefiting from pay raises; and retired workers will see their premiums increased by 100%. In 2010, Gibbons could be the most endangered incumbent and is expected to face a highly competitive Republican primary.

Other Governors might not have as dreadful approval ratings, but they are certainly starting to feel the heat. In Ohio, a recent poll shows that respondents now disapprove of Ted Strickland’s handling of the economy. The Governor is up for re-election in 2010. How long can he sustain high overall approval ratings in the face of declining confidence in his economic leadership? (Colorado’s Bill Ritter faces the same question.) Like other Governors, Strickland is ordering job cuts; he is also putting himself at risk by refusing to play with progressive taxation - he refused to halt the 21% decline in income tax signed by his Republican predecessors - while supporting increasing regressive taxation like fees for basic services.

Also, it will be interesting to see how Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Texas Governor Rick Perry and South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford will be affected by their decision not to take some of the stimulus funds. Palin and Perry are up for re-election next year. The former is not expected to face a competitive race, while the latter will be faced by Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Republican primary, Hutchison’s vote against the stimulus makes it hard for her to make it an issue. As for Sanford, he is the executive of one of the poorest state’s in the country: Will Democrats be able to regain their footing in the Palmetto State by blasting the GOP for endangering the state’s economic situation further?

Governor: Cicilline and Laffey bow out in Rhode Island, Whitman hints at extensive self-funding

Published
by
Taniel
on March 17, 2009
in CA-Gov and RI-Gov
. 0 Comments

Rhode Island: Two bow out, Chaffee still mulling run

With Republican Governor Donald Carcieri term-limited out of office in one of the most liberal states in the country, Rhode Island is already the Democrats’ top gubernatorial pick-up opportunities. This week, the Democrats’ hold on the seat got even stronger and Republican bench got even thinner: former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, the GOP’s highest-profile potential contender, announced that he would not seek his party’s nomination.

On the one hand, Laffey’s ideological profile made it difficult to see him the general election in this blue a state: He is known as a conservative, especially by Rhode Island’s standards. In 2006, he challenged Senator Lincoln Chaffee in the Republican primary; he criticized Chaffee for his centrism, was backed by Club for Growth and only narrowly lost the contest, 53% to 47% (Chaffee went on to lose the general election).

On the other hand, voters are far more open to voting for someone of the opposite party in state-level races, and Laffey would at least have guaranteed Republicans a high profile candidate with the financial networks to stay on the airwaves and make the general election worth following. The GOP’s probable nominee is now state Rep. Joe Trillo, who will have a hard time remaining relevant against a crowd of Democrats, starting with Treasurer Frank Caprio, Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts, Attorney General Patrick Lynch.

Also this week, the Democratic field lost one of its most prominent candidates: Providence Mayor David Cicilline announced that he would not be seeking the Governor’s mansion but seek re-election instead. Cicilline stood a good chance of becoming the first openly gay Governor in the country, but we will have to wait longer for that to occur.

And the biggest wild card has yet to make up his mind about this race: Former Senator Linc Chaffee, who said last week that he is “very, very seriously” considering a gubernatorial run. Chaffee would run as an independent, which would ensure his place on the general election ballot but would also make for a difficult campaign: If Chaffee lost a two-way general election in 2006, would it not be more difficult to win a three-way race, facing a credible Democrats while bleeding votes from the right?

In this context, Laffey’s decision not to run might be a blessing for Chaffee as it opens the door to the possibility that the GOP does not nominate a credible candidate and that the former Senator manages to attract most Republican-leaning voters. This would put Chaffee in the position of Joe Lieberman in 2006: Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger only attracted 9.6%, allowing Lieberman to win re-election as an independent thanks GOP voters.

California: Whitman prepares for self-funding, speculation surrounds Feinstein

Republicans face tough odds in their bid to hold on to California’s governorship next year, but could they hold on to their seat with money? In an interview with Fortune, Meg Whitman hinted that she might spend as much as $50 million of her own money - a startling amount that would rank Whitman among those who try to buy their seat, the Michael Bloomberg, Jon Corzine and Mitt Romney’s of the worlds.

Whitman faces a highly competitive - and potentially bruising - primary against Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and former state Rep. Tom Campbell. Whitman’s moderate profile could make her a better candidate in the general election of such a blue-leaning state, but it is also a clear liability in the GOP primary. Naturally, the ability to obliterate her rivals financially should be a tremendous boost to Whitman’s hopes of surviving the primary. After all, California is a very expansive state to campaign in.

More importantly, Whitman’s seemingly unlimited resources would be a huge asset in the general election: The Democratic field is filled with prominent candidates, and the nominee could emerge from the primary bruised and with depleted financial resources. For Whitman to have millions of dollars available at that moment would enable her to hammer her Democratic opponent when he is already down and has litlte ability to respond.

In other California news, the Los Angeles Times takes a look at the possibility that Senator Diane Feinstein jump in the gubernatorial race: Will she finally run, or will she once again take the safe route and remain in the Senate? The reporters opine that she will not jump in the race, arguing that (1) she has reached a prominent position in Congress, that (2) other Democrats would not be likely to step aside for her and that (3) Feinstein is too old to want such a dramatic change in her life. Those reasons all make sense; that said, Feinstein’s refusal to rule out a run could handicap Democrats who are already in the race as donors might be reluctant to take side until they know what Feinstein is planning to do.

Poll watch: Corzine stuck in the low 30s, muddied gubernatorial field in CA

Published
by
Taniel
on March 5, 2009
in CA-Gov and NJ-Gov
. 0 Comments

Will the Tri-State area lose both of their Democratic Governors? Jon Corzine’s numbers might not be as catastrophic as those of David Paterson, but the New Jersey Governor’s situation is even more worrisome considering that he will have to face voters this fall rather than in 2010. And a new Farleigh Dickinson survey suggests Corzine is in a hole:

  • In a match-up with Republican candidate Chris Christie, Corzine trails 41% to 32%. In January, Corzine was ahead by 7%.
  • When matched-up against obscure Democrats, Corzine receives 59%, with 36% saying they are undecided. That suggests Corzine could face primary if a credible challenger emerges.
  • 40% of respondents approve of Corzine’s performance, versus 46% who disapprove; in January, the numbers were reversed.

This Farleigh Dickinson poll is the fourth survey in a row to find Corzine trailing, and he has yet to receive more than 40% in any poll released this year. Given that incumbents are endangered if they are under 50%, needless to say failing to break 40% is a sign of huge trouble.

Yes, it is true: New Jersey Democrats always face worrisome numbers before pulling ahead in the final weeks. But the time has come to stop invoking that tradition of state politics. This is not an open seat (like the 2005 Governor’s race), nor does it invoke a recently-appointed incumbent (like the 2006 Senate race). Corzine served five years in the Senate before winning this term; voters know him well, making his 32% that much more terrible. Given that the economy is not expected to improve any time soon, I am not sure how Corzine will be able to improve his numbers.

—

Meanwhile, we got two surveys of California’s gubernatorial race. One was released by the Field poll, the second by Lake Research Partners. Both survey tested the Democrats’ crowded primaries (most if not all of the candidates on this list are expected to run):

  • First, Lake Research Partners tested the Democratic primary: Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown leads the field with 27%; Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa gets 20%, San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is at 14%, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi is at 8% and former Controller Steve Westly receives only 3%. (Westly received 44% in the party’s 2006 primary.)
  • The Field poll finds similar results, with Brown (26%), Villaraigosa (22%) and Newsom (14%) leading the Democratic pack in the same order as in the LRP survey. Yet, the poll also tested a Democratic primary that would involve Diane Feinstein. The Senator gets 38% of Democratic respondents, ahead of Brown and Villaraigosa (16%), Newsom (10%) and Garamendi (4%).
  • Only the Field poll tested the Republican primary, finding a toss-up between Meg Whitman (21%) and former state Rep. Tom Campbell (18%). Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner gets 7%.

Sure, Diane Feinstein has a solid lead; but for such a prominent politician to only get 38% of the vote suggests that even she would not be assured of winning the Democratic nomination. As for the rest of the field, Brown’s slight edge could be due to his superior name recognition more than anything else. In the LRP poll, about 26% of respondents have never heard of him or have no opinion about him; that is by far inferior to Garamendi (51%), Newsom (48%) or Villaraigosa (41%). The Field poll finds similar results. Over the next year, the Los Angeles and San Fransisco Mayor will have plenty of time to introduce themselves to voters across the state.

The Field poll did not test general election match-up, but Lake Research Partners tested a few of them, matching up two of the potential Republican nominees against two of the potential Democratic candidates:

  • Brown beats Poizner 41% to 30%; Whitman is even more distanced, 43% to 27%.
  • Newsom is ahead of Poizner 38% to 29%; he leads Whitman 40% to 25%.

Whitman is generally considered to be the strongest potential Republican candidate, as her moderate credentials could appeal to the state’s independent voters. But the fact that she is distanced by both Democrats is not a good sign for the GOP’s hopes of keeping the seat. That said, about a third of voters are undecided and both Brown and Newsom fail to break out of the low 40s.

Election results: Quigley will replace Emanuel, Villaraigosa avoids runoff

Published
by
Taniel
on March 4, 2009
in CA-Gov and IL-05
. 6 Comments

Mike Quigley is preparing to join the House of Representatives: The Cook County Commissioner is assured of replacing Rahm Emanuel after winning the Democratic nomination in IL-05’s special election. IL-05 is a heavily Democratic district (Obama received 73% of the vote), and Quigley is more than heavily favored to beat his general election opponents next month.

Quigley faced 10 opponents in the Democratic primary, and he won with a small plurality: He only garnered 22% in a low-turnout contest. That’s right, Quigley has secured himself a safe seat in the House by winning only 11,000 votes! An important factor in his victory was undoubtedly the dual endorsement of the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times; in an election with low turnout, such newspapers editorials are sure to make a difference.

Despite the fact that most unions endorsed state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz, the top three vote getters (Quigley, John Fritchey and Feigenholtz) shared a similar ideological profile. All are liberals Democrats who are expected to be in the left-wing of their House caucus, and progressives have no reason to be upset at Quigley’s win; if anything, he should be to the left of Emanuel, whose ambitions led to position himself as a moderate on some issues.

That said, many progressives were hoping that labor lawyer Tom Geoghegan could score an upset. Geoghegan was undoubtedly the most left-leaning of the candidates, and he would provided a valuable challenge to conventional liberal thinking. Even though he got support from national commentators and on-the-ground help from Democracy for America, Geoghegan was surely doomed by the fact that most unions endorsed Feigenholtz.

On the other hand, many Democrats were worried that a moderate-to-conservative contender could benefit from the crowded field and take the party’s nomination with a small plurality. In particular, anti-EFCA Charles Wheelan looked like he had a shot; he ended up getting 7% - a low percentage, but not that far behind Quigley’s result.

Keep an eye on Quigley: IL-05 has traditionally served as a springboard for ambitious Democrats who have become national figures. The area was represented by Democratic power-broker Dan Rostenkowski, who served more than 3 decades in the House before his high-profile defeat in the 1994 midterms; the Republican who defeated him went on to lose against Rod Blagojevich. Later still, Blago’s move to the Governor’s mansion put Rahm Emanuel on a trajectory that made him DCCC chairman and the White House’s Chief of Staff.

In fact, the biggest threat to Quigley’s career could be the man he is replacing. Emanuel transparently desired to become Speaker, and he has hinted that he might try to reclaim his old House seat when his time in the White House expires. Quigley is certainly no place-holder, so we might one day be headed for a high-profile Quigley-Emanuel primary battle.

—

There was no doubt that Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would end up winning his re-election race, but the stakes of yesterday’s first round vote were high: If he had failed to garner 50% against a second-tier cast of nine challengers, Villaraigosa would be forced in a May runoff that would have further delayed the start of his preparations for a statewide race.

When Villaraigosa was first elected in 2005, he was heralded as a rising Democratic star with an undeniable statewide - perhaps even national! - future. But like many other ambitious California Democrats, Villaraigosa’s ambitions were endangered by a series of unwelcome stories that hurt his popularity. Yet, Villaraigosa garnered a strong 56% of the vote yesterday, avoiding a runoff. His decisive re-election victory should allow him to get a clean start, putting the controversies of his first term behind him by rightly insisting that he has kept his constituents’ trust.

Having secured a second term, Villaraigosa can now turn his attention to the Governor’s race. During the campaign, Villaraigosa refused to pledge to serve a full term, but he has also avoided taking steps that could be interpreted as his gearing up for a statewide run. His potential rivals for the Democratic nomination - Attorney General Jerry Brown, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom - have all started to position themselves for the campaign and have all already raised tons of cash.

Recruitment tidbits, from Lacy Clay to Antonio Villaraigosa

Published
by
Taniel
on February 13, 2009
in CA-Gov, CT-Gov, MO-Sen and PA-Gov
. 1 Comment

An unexpected twist in MO-Sen?

Over the past month, Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has received a lot of good news. Republican Senator Kit Bond announced his retirement, allowing Carnahan to run for an open Senate seat; Jim Talent, arguably the GOP’s strongest contender, announced he would not run; Republicans are still heading towards a bruising  primary; and it looked like no one would challenge Carnahan’s claim to the Democratic nomination.

Yet, we are now hearing reports that Rep. William Lacy Clay is considering jumping in the Senate race as well. Clay, an African-American lawmaker first elected in 2000, is the chairman of the House Information Policy, Census and National Archives Subcommittee. He is a proud progressive and a fiercely anti-war voice. (Clay voted against the 2002 Iraq War Resolution.)

Clay’s comments are the first sign that Democrats could hold as competitive a primary as Republicans. Carnahan is a member of one of Missouri’s biggest political dynasties, and for that fact alone she would be the clear favorite in a contested primary. But there is no doubt that Clay could mount a competitive run. If anything, St. Louis-based MO-01 is by far the most Democratic of the state’s nine districts, meaning that Clay is already well known by a significant share of the state’s Democratic primary voters.

Amann launches Connecticut campaign

Meanwhile, in Connecticut, former House Speaker James Amann launched his gubernatorial campaign on Wednesday. Amann had already all but jumped in at the end of 2008, so his latest more public move was not surprising. Amann faces two uphill races. He is undoubtedly less known than the two other Democratic candidates (Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and Stamford Mayor Dannel P. Malloy); even if he were to emerge the victor, Republican Governor Jodi Rell is heavily favored to win another term: A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows Rell beating Amann by 40%!

Since this is Connecticut - a state in which Democrats are expected to at least be competitive - it is still worth taking a closer look to Amann, who served in the state’s General Assembly for 18 years and served as the speaker for four years. Yet, Amann is as conservative a candidate as Democrats could field in a blue state like Connecticut. For instance, Amann voted against the civil union bill that passed the legislature a few years ago. (Gay marriage has since been legalized in Connecticut.) In fact, Amann expects to campaign on his centrist credentials. Bysiewicz and Mallow will hopefully not divide the liberal/mainstream Democratic vote enough to allow Amann to move on with narrow plurality.

Gubernatorial shorts: Wolf out in PA, Villaraigosa drops hints in CA

One of the many Pennsylvania Democrats mulling a gubernatorial run has bowed out of the race. Citing the fact that his family business needed him in this time of economic downturn, former Secretary of Revenue Tom Wolf announced he would not seek the office in 2010. He would have been an important player in the primary because he would have been able to tap in his personal fortune. Democrats have little to worry about: There are many Democrats left (see my recruitment page).

Meanwhile, a number of California Democrats are busy laying the groundwork for their gubernatorial candidacies, but Los Angeles’s Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa has to wait to win his re-election race this spring before starting to openly plan for a statewide run. Yet, in a recent interview with the AP, Villaraigosa certainly confirmed everyone’s suspicions. “I’m not going to make a promise I can’t keep,” he responded when asked whether he would commit to serving a full mayoral term.

Gubernatorial recruitment

Published
by
Taniel
on February 9, 2009
in CA-Gov and recruitment
. 4 Comments

Surely frustrated that she did not roll out her announcement in time to make it in the gubernatorial rankings I published this morning, former EBay CEO Meg Whitman jumped in California’s gubernatorial election this afternoon; she has not finalized her candidacy, but her explanatory committee is all but certain to lead to a full run.

This is obviously a major 2010 development, as it gives the GOP a credible candidate for one of the most difficult seats they will have to defend. Whether Whitman is conservative enough to win the Republican nomination remains to be seen, but she should be helped by her billions: Her ability to self-fund a campaign is priceless in a state as large and as pricey as California. (I will let you consult the just-written California section of my Governor’s page for more analysis of the race.)

Whitman might have decided, but we still have a large number of potential gubernatorial candidates (starting with Rudy Giuliani, Diane Feinstein or Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) to watch for over the next few months. So here is as exhaustive as possible a database of all the politicians whose names are being mentioned.

(This is very much a work in progress that has been added to the recruitment page; updates will be posted on that page, and will be recapped each week with updates to Retirement Watch and Senate recruitment.)

State Party Potential candidates
AL Dems (open) Rep. Artur Davis (is running)
Lieutenant Governor Jim Folsom
House Speaker Seth Hammett
Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks
AL GOP (open) Rep. Jo Bonner (ruled out run)
Secretary of State Beth Chapman
Attorney General Troy King
Treasurer Kay Ivy
Rep. Mike Rogers
state Senator Harri Anne Smithhas
AK Dems (against Palin) Ethan Berkowitz
former Commissioner of Administration Bob Poe (is running)
AR GOP (against Beebe) No one
AZ Dems (against Brewer) Attorney General Terry Goddard
Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon
former state party chair Jim Pederson
AZ GOP (against Brewer) Rep. Jeffrey Flake
CA Dem (open) former Governor Jerry Brown (is running)
Controller John Chiang
Senator Diane Feinstein
Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi (is running)
Treasurer Bill Lockyer
San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (is running)
schools superintendent Jack O’Connell
Rep. Loretta Sanchez
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
CA GOP (open) former state Rep. Tom Campbell (is running)
Rep. Tom McClintock
Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner
former eBay CEO Meg Whitman (is running)
CO GOP (against Ritter) former Rep. Bob Beauprez
former Rep. Scott McInnis (expressed interest)
Attorney General John Suthers (ruled it out)
former Rep. Tom Tancredo (expressed interest)
CT Dem (against Rell) former House Speaker James Amann (is running)
state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (ruled out run)
Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz (is running)
Stamford Mayor Dannel Malloy (is running)
FL Dems (against Crist) state CFO Alex Sink (ruled it out)
GA Dems (open) Attorney General Thurbert Baker
former Governor Roy Barnes
Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin
Rep. Jim Marshall
House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (has hinted that he will run)
former SoS and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress (is running)
Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond
GA GOP (open) Lieutenant governor Casey Cagle (is running)
Secretary of State Karen Handel (is running)
Senator Johnny Isakson (ruled it out)
House Majority Leader Jerry Keen
Rep. Jack Kingston
State Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine (is running)
state Rep. Austin Scott (is running)
Rep. Lynn Westmoreland
HI Dems (open) Rep. Neil Abercrombie (expressed interest)
former Rep. Ed Case
state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa
Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann
HI GOP (open) Lieutenant Governor James Aiona
IA GOP (against Culver) Rep. Steve King
former state Sen. Chuck Larson
Rep. Tom Latham
state Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey
state House Minority Leader Christopher Rants
State Auditor David Vaudt
U.S. Attorney Matt Whitaker
ID Dems (against Otter) Boise Mayor David Bieter
2006 nominee Jerry Brady (leaning against it)
IL Dems (against Quinn) Attorney General Lisa Madigan
IL GOP (against Quinn) Rep. Mark Kirk
Rep. Peter Roskam
former Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka
KS Dems (open seat) Lieutenant Governor Mark Parkinson
KS GOP (open seat) Senator Sam Brownback (is running)
Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh (is running)
MA GOP (against Patrick) former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey
former Governor Mitt Romney (unlikely)
MD GOP (against O’Malley) former Governor Robert Ehrlich
Attorney Mike Pappas
ME Dems (open) Rep. Tom Allen (ruled it out)
Rep. Mike Michaud
former Attorney General Steven Rowe (is running)
ME GOP (open) former state Sen. Rick Bennett
ME Independent Green Party (open) party chairwoman Lynne William
MI Dems (open) former Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer (ruled it out)
Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero
Lieutenant Governor John Cherry (filed papers)
state House Speaker Andy Dillon
Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel
former Michigan State University football coach George Perles
Rep. Bart Stupak
Flint Mayor Don Williamson (is running)
MI GOP (open) state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop
Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon
state Attorney General Mike Cox (explanatory committee)
Rep. Peter Hoekstra (expressed interest)
Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land
Rep. Candice Miller
Oakland County executive L. Brooks Patterson
Rep. Mike Rogers
businessman and 2006 nominee Dick DeVos (ruled it out)
MN Dems (against Pawlenty) House Speaker Margaret Anderson
state Sen. Tom Bakk (filed paperwork)
state Senator Tarryl Clark
St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman
former Senator Mark Dayton (filed paperwork)
former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza
Attorney Susan Gaertner (filed paperwork)
state Sen. John Marty (filed paperwork)
Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak
state Rep. Paul Thissen (filed paperwork)
Rep. Tim Walz
NE Dems (against Heineman) state Senator Steve Lathrop
state Senator Tom White
NJ GOP (against Corzine) former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (is running)
Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine (is running)
former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan (is running)
Assemblyman Rick Merkt (is running)
NM Dems (open) Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish
Val Kilmer
state Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez
NM GOP (open) former Rep. Steve Pearce
former Rep. Heather Wilson
NV Dems (against Gibbons) state House Speaker Barbara Buckley
Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman
state Treasurer Kate Marshall
Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto
Secretary of State Ross Miller
Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid
NV GOP (against Gibbons) Reno Mayor Bob Cashell
Rep. Dean Heller
NY Dems (against Paterson) Attorney General Andrew Cuomo
NY GOP (against Paterson) former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Rep. Peter King (more likely to run for Senate)
former Rep. Rick Lazio (planning run)
NY Indie (against Paterson) New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg
OH GOP (against Strickland) state Senator Kevin Coughlin (is running)
former Senator Mike DeWine
former Rep. John Kasich
OK Dems (open) Lieutenant Governor Jari Askins
Attorney General Drew Edmonson
OK GOP (open) Rep. Mary Fallin
Rep. Frank Lucas
OR Dems (open) former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury (is running)
state Senate President Peter Courtney
Rep. Peter DeFazio
OR GOP (open) former Senator Gordon Smith
Rep. Greg Walden
PA Dems (open) former Bethlehem mayor Don Cunningham
businessmen Tom Knox
state Senator Robert Mellow
Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato
former Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel
Auditor General Jack Wagner
Treasurer Robin Weisserman
state Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf
PA GOP (open) GOP: Attorney General Tom Corbett
Rep. Jim Gerlach
former Rep. Pat Toomey
former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan
former state House Speaker John Perze
former Governor Mark Schweiker
former Lieutenant General William Scranton III
RI Dems (open) Treasurer Frank Caprio
Providence Mayor David Cicilline
Attorney General Patrick Lynch
Lieutenant Governor Elizabeth Roberts
RI GOP (open) Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian
former Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey
State Representative Joe Trillo
RI Independent (open) former Senator Lincoln Chaffee
SC Dems (open) former state party chairman Joe Erwin
state Senator Joel Lourie
state Rep. James Smith
former Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum
SC GOP (open) Lieutenant Governor André Bauer
Rep. Greshman Barrett
Attorney General Henry McMaster
SD Dems (open) Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin
SD GOP (open) Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard (is running)
state Senator Dave Knudson (is running)
Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman (is running)
TN Dems (open) State Senator Andy Berke
Rep. Lincoln Davis (ruled it out)
former Rep. Harold Ford, Jr
TN GOP (open) former Senator Bill Frist (ruled it out)
District Attorney Bill Gibbons
Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam
Rep. Zach Wamp (is running)
TX Dems (against Perry) Kinky Friedman (expressed interest)
state Sen. and former Austin Mayor Kirk Watson
Houston Mayor Bill White (unlikely)
TX GOP (against Perry) Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison
TX Independent (against Perry) Kinky Friedman (expressed interest)
VA Dem (open) state Senator Creigh Deeds (is running)
former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe (is running)
state Delegate Brian Moran (is running)
VA GOP (open) state Attorney General Robert McDonnell (is running)
VT Dems (against Douglas) Secretary of State Deb Markowitz
former Lieutenant Governor Doug Racine (is running)
State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding
VT Independent (against Douglas) Anthony Pollina
WI GOP (against Doyle) Ambassador to Tanzania and former Rep. Mark Green
Rep. Paul Ryan
Attorney General J.B. Van Hollen
Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker
WY Dems (open) former House candidate Gary Trauner
WY GOP (open) Secretary of State Max Maxfield
Fred Parady
former party chairman Tom Sansonetti
state Rep. Colin Simpson

Governor: Colorado’s Ritter under 50%, California Dems bring in cash

Published
by
Taniel
on February 2, 2009
in CA-Gov and CO-Gov
. 2 Comments

I somehow managed to miss the poll of Colorado’s gubernatorial race Public Policy Polling released last week. (PPP also released a senatorial poll, which I blogged about here.) Governor Bill Ritter is running for re-election, and while he has no declared opponent, a number of Republicans are considering challenging him. PPP tested two of them:

  • Against former Rep. Bob Beauprez, Ritter is ahead 46% to 40%. This would be a rematch of the 2006 general election, which the Democrat won 57% to 40%. Ritter has a bigger lead against former Rep. Tom Tancredo, 52% to 38%.
  • The numbers among Hispanics are very interesting: Beauprez leads Ritter 50% to 36%, while Tancredo trails 53% to 35%.

Applying the 50% rule tells us that Ritter is vulnerable, contrary to what we might have expected given the ease of his victory in the 2006 open race. But Ritter’s approval rating is now weak enough (47% approve of his performance, versus 40%) that the GOP has an opening. That said, much will depend on Republican recruitment. Attorney General John Suthers was the only current office holder who was mentioned as a contender, and he ruled out challenging Ritter last week. That leaves the GOP’s fate in the hands of also-rans like Beauprez and Tancredo.

Furthermore, this poll is a reminder of the growing importance of the Hispanic vote in Colorado. For a Republican candidate to even have a shot at contesting a statewide election, he must hold his own among Hispanics - and that is not something Tancredo (known first and foremost for his anti-immigration stances) would be capable of. On the other hand, Hispanics seem open to the idea of voting against Ritter; that is shown not only by his numbers against Beauprez, but also by his approval rating among that constituency (44% approve, 48% disapprove). PPP suggests this is due to Ritter’s not appointing a Hispanic to Salazar’s Senate seat.

—

In other gubernatorial news (and I promise to publish my governor’s rankings in the days ahead!), California’s numerous Democratic hopefuls are already piling up cash in preparation for what could be the most hotly contested 2010 primary in the country.

Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi and San Fransisco Mayor Gavin Newsom have already raised more than $1 million; both have $700,000 of cash-on-hand… and they will need much more to catch up to Treasurer Bill Lockyer and Attorney General and former Governor Jerry Brown who have warchests of $10 million and $4 million, respectively (those amounts have not been raised for the gubernatorial election, but they can be transferred to it).

In particular, Jerry Brown is moving increasingly quickly in what the San Fransisco Gate describes as “non-stop fundraising.” He raised $3.4 million during this past year, and he is now set for his first Beverly Hills fundraiser meant to raise money for a gubernatorial bid. Of course, Brown has a lot of connection given his very lengthy history: He served two gubernatorial terms in… the 1970s, and he ran for the 1992 presidential election (he was the last man standing against Bill Clinton in the Democratic primaries).

All of this early agitation could mean trouble for Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who has been dreaming about the Governor’s mansion for years but who must win re-election this coming fall before he can start campaigning and raising money for the gubernatorial race. Depending on how competitive a mayoral race he faces, he could find himelf at the end of 2009 with a depleted bank account, a few months to go before the gubernatorial primary, and Democratic rivals that have piled up tens of millions of dollars. Could Villaraigosa make a run in such conditions?