Archive for the 'AZ-Gov' Category

Poll watch: Rubio edges ahead for the first time, Castle and McCollum grab decisive leads

Published
by
Taniel
on January 27, 2010
in AZ-Gov, DE-Sen, FL-Gov, FL-Sen, IL-Gov, NV-Sen, OH-Gov, PA-15 and UT-Gov
. 12 Comments

For the first time, Marco Rubio leads Charlie Crist in Florida’s Republican primary - and it’s not even a Rasmussen poll! He has a 47% to 44% over the Governor in Quinnipiac’s latest poll of the race.

The surprise isn’t necessarily that Rubio has edged ahead (while Crist looked truly formidable when he jumped in the Senate race in May, the primary always looked like it could get very tricky) but that he has done so effortlessly. In June, Crist had a 54% to 23% lead, which he maintained in August; by October, his margin was cut by half (50-35) and Rubio gained another 20% since the fall. There are still 9 months to go before the election, Rubio has yet to air any ad or deploy the heavy artillery but Crist has already collapsed! What will it be once the former Speaker has spent his money introducing himself to all voters? After all, 42% of Republican respondents say they do not know him well, versus only 6% who say the same of Crist.

This is not simply due to conservatives turning against Crist, far from it. Like so many of his colleagues, the Governor has seen his approval rating melt during the economic crisis. Back in June, it stood at 62-28; now, at 50-38. What this means is that Democrats might be better off facing Charlie Crist in the general election - something I frankly never thought I would say.

For now, both Republicans have a commanding lead over Rep. Kendrick Meek: Crist is up 48% to 36%, Rubio is up 44% to 35%. But this does not mean Democrats should give up on this race. For one, 72% of respondents say they know little about Meek, which makes his name recognition far weaker than either of his opponents’. As importantly, what might these numbers look like after Crist and Rubio have spent their millions (both are very prolific fundraisers) blasting each other throughout the summer? (The primary won’t be held before August 24th.) Their favorability rating should be far lower, while Meek is also a well-financed candidate who might have been able to use that time to air unchallenged positive ads.

Meanwhile, in other Senate polls…

Delaware: No Beau Biden, no Ted Kaufmann, no Matt Denn, no John Carney - the highest-profile candidate Democrats can hope for at this point is Newcastle County Executive Chris Coons. Always eager to crush Democrats’ spirits, Rasmussen wasted no time before coming out with a poll pitting Coons to Rep. Mike Castle and the results are rather brutal for the defending party: Castle leads by a massive 56% to 27%! Research 2000’s October survey had Castle up 51% to 39% over Coons, which is 17% more optimistic for Democrats, so we’ll say what other surveys have to say, but there’s no question that Republicans have now become very likely to pick-up this seat. Most stunning is the 31% of Democrats who say they are voting for Castle; sure, that means Coons has some room to grow, but if these respondents are willing to support the Republican outright rather than say they are undecided, it says much more about the congressman’s popularity than Coons’s lack of name recognition.

Nevada: No surprises in Research 2000’s latest Nevada poll: Harry Reid is still in a terrible position. Weighed down by a 34-55 favorability rating, he trails his opponents by brutal margins: 52-41 against Danny Tarkanian and 51-42 against Sue Lowden. Research 2000 tested potential replacements and found that Nevada Democrats cannot hope to pull a Dodd: Rep. Berkley trails 46-40 and 45-40 and Secretary of State Rose Miller is down 44-36 and 43-37. That such well-known Democrats are polling this weakly against such low-profile Republicans suggests NV is very determined to vote Republican in November. One candidate who manages small leads is Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, but he just announced he wouldn’t seek statewide office - not that Democrats had much reason to rest their hopes on him, since he is over 70!

New York: The third poll to test Harold Ford Jr.’s primary prospects is also the one to found him closest: Research 2000 shows Kirsten Gillibrand leading 41% to 27%, with 3% for Jonathan Tasini. Ford is surprisingly well-known among New York Democrats (his favorability rating is 40-13), while Gillibrand has more than avoided David Paterson’s fate (her rating is 46-26). Whatever Ford’s baggage, there is no denying that he still has plenty of room to grow and this will be a real race if he jumps in but that has more to do with Gillibrand’s vulnerability than anything else - remember that she’s been in trouble in primary polls no matter who she’s been matched-up against, and she did trail repeatedly against Carolyn Maloney over the summer.

Meanwhile, in other gubernatorial polls…

Florida: If Alex Sink and Bill McCollum were within the margin of error throughout 2009, how long could that have lasted in the current environment? While the conventional wisdom has been that McCollum comes with electability issues, the bottom line is that we are talking about an open seat race between two credible candidates in a swing states, a situation which in 2010 is bound to favor the GOP. Indeed, the new Quinnipiac poll finds McCollum grabbing a decisive 51% to 41% lead, up from the 4% edge he held in October; at this point, it goes beyond name recognition, though Sink should at least be able to somewhat get closer once she reduces the notoriety gap. One good news for Sink in the poll: 22% of Democrats say they are undecided, but only 11% of Republicans.

Illinois: Attacked from all corners and seeing his primary fortunes sink, Governor Pat Quinn is also in a bad position in the general election according to a new PPP poll. He trails former AG Jim Ryan 42% to 35% and trails former state party chair Andy McKenna 42% to 36%; Dan Hynes, however, leads both Republicans (40-35 against Ryan, 38-36 against McKenna). This is quite a decisive

Arizona: This has been one of Democrats’ top opportunities of the cycle because of Governor Jan Brewer’s unpopularity, but a new Rasmussen poll shows that the GOP is in a position to nominate someone who can perform much better: Treasurer Dean Martin has a 31% to 29% edge over Brewer, with John Munger at 7% and Vernon Parker at 5% (Parker has dropped out). The swap would be helpful to Republicans: Not only does Brewer have a dismal approval rating (37-60) but she trails Democratic front-runner Goddard 43% to 41% whereas Martin leads 44% to 35%. That’s a turnaround from Rasmussen’s last 2009 poll, in which Goddard had a lead against Martin. The shifting landscape is affecting Democratic candidates everywhere.

Ohio: The University of Cincinnati found yet more confirmation that the once mighty Ted Strickland is facing a very tough re-election race: he trails former Rep. John Kasich 51% to 45%. Interestingly, his rating is positive - 50% to 45% - so voters looking for a change are not necessarily doing so because they disapprove of the governor’s performance. This is further supported by the survey asking who respondents blame for the economic crisis. 24% say Bush, 23% say Wall Street and 19% say Congress; only 13% say Obama and 3% say Strickland. Yet, it’s Democrats who are preparing to lose a lot of seats.

Utah: Last week, a Deseret News poll found Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon was holding Governor Herbert under 50%, but Mason Dixon shows Herbert in a stronger position, crushing Corroon 55% to 30%. While Coroon is popular (his approval rating is 47-17), Herbert is showing no sign of vulnerability, with 62% of respondents approving of his job.

New York: No miracle for David Paterson in Research 2000. His favorability rating stands at 34-54 (and yes, that’s just among Democrats) while Andrew Cuomo’s is a formidable 71-15. The trial heat results would be stunning if we hadn’t already seen it dozens of times: Cuomo crushes Paterson 63% to 19%. I’m still at a loss as to how the governor hopes to win the Democratic nod.

Republican Internal polls

NH-Sen: Conservatives have failed to derail Mark Kirk’s candidacy, but we have gotten no look at the primary situation in New Hampshire, where Kelly Ayotte’s situation has seemed a bit more precarious than Kirk’s. (Of course, Democrats would love nothing more than to see the A.G. crash out.) Ayotte sought to remedy the situation by releasing an internal poll that has her dominating the GOP field: Ayotte has 43%, Ovide Lamontagne 11%, Bill Binnie 5% and Jim Bender 3%. Last spring, Lamontagne’s allies claimed he remained well-known among state Republicans so a 32% margin is disappointing but there is a very long way to go until the September primary; given the name recognition gap, Lamontagne has room to grow - not to mention that this is an internal poll.

PA-15: Rep. Charlie Dent is one of the few Republican incumbents who are considered vulnerable at this point, which must not be an enjoyable position. The congressman’s camp sought to counter that perception by releasing an internal poll showing him with a dominant lead over Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan. Conducted by The Tarrance Group, the survey has him leading by a massive 56% to 27%. Take the results with a big grain of salt (it’s an internal, and the polling memo doesn’t even include exact wording questions) but the numbers are obviously tough for Democrats; it would be nice to see a public survey from this district.

Gubernatorial polls confirm many questions left to answer in WI, AZ and NV

Published
by
Taniel
on November 28, 2009
in AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen, NC-Sen, NV-Sen and WI-Gov
. 10 Comments

NC: Marshall might be ignored, but she starts with wide primary lead

The post’s title might allude to gubernatorial contests, but let’s start with a Senate poll. In recent weeks, I have repeatedly marveled at the way in which national Democrats and the national media have treated Secretary of State Elaine Marshall as a minor-league candidate. Few journalists have been as determined to ignore her as the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who did it again this week by writing that managing to answer an entire question about Burr’s re-election prospects without once mentioning Marshall. “My guess is that Democrats wind up with Cal Cunningham as their candidate,” he wrote.

That would be an acceptable statement if he at least acknowledged that it would require Cunningham to succeed at beating Marshall, which a new PPP poll (conducted for the Marshall campaign) finds would require quite a come-from-behind effort: The Secretary of State leads the primary with 42% of the vote, with attorney Kenneth Lewis getting 7% (14% among African-American voters) and Cunningham receiving 5%.

As with any internal survey, this should be taken with a grain of salt. Also, these numbers do not show that Marshall has the race locked-up: Given her prominent position, her failure to get to 50% against two low-profile opponents suggests she could be vulnerable. Yet, it’s hard not to portray her as the clear frontrunner to get the nod whether or not Cunningham runs (especially since he would have to fight with Lewis for undecided voters’ attention). This gets to what I fail to understand about the DSCC’s attitude: Even if we grant that others would be stronger general election candidates, the odds that Democrats will have to target Burr with Marshall are significant enough that telegraphing distrust is a bizarre strategy.

Wisconsin: Might Thompson’s entry hurt the GOP?

So much for Tommy Thompson as the GOP’s dream candidate! A few days after it showed Russ Feingold leading the former Governor 50% to 41%, PPP released the gubernatorial part of its Wisconsin poll, finding that Thompson with meaningfully weaker numbers than two other Republicans when matched-up with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, the Democrats’ presumptive nominee: Barrett is tied with Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker, 40% to 40%; against former Rep. Mark Neumann, Barrett edges ahead 41% to 39%; but against Thompson, Barrett grabs a lead outside of the margin of error: 41% to 36%.

That’s nothing dramatic, of course, but keeping in mind that Thompson is the highest-profile of these 4 candidates, the fact that he receives the lowest level of support is very significant - and it makes Feingold’s hold on his Senate seat look all the more solid: While the GOP is running strong candidates in the Governor’s race, Thompson is at this point the only prominent Republican who’s considering challenging Feingold.

The poll’s bottom line is that the race will be a toss-up whether the GOP nominates Walker or Neumann, and we should expect it to stay that way all the way through November 2010. While the results don’t allow us to test Barrett’s strength relatively to other Democrats (especially to Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton), they do confirm that Doyle’s decision not to seek re-election is one retirement Democrats have no reason to lament because Doyle had grown too unpopular to have much of a chance to win next year. This latest poll finds his approval rating at 29% - that’s approaching Gibbons-Paterson level.

Arizona: What if Joe Arpaio jumps in?

Arizona’s gubernatorial race looks confusing enough given how vulnerable incumbent Jan Brewer looks in the Republican primary, but Rasmussen decided to test a scenario that has been the source of some rumors lately: What if Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, hero of the anti-immigration hard-right, jumps in the Governor’s race? The poll’s answer: He would be overwhelmingly favorite to win not only the GOP nomination but also the entire prize!

In a primary, Arpaio crushes his well-known rivals with 47% of the vote; Treasurer Dean Martin gets 22% and Governor Jan Brewer only 10%, with 6% going to John Munger and Vernon Parker. That’s right, the incumbent is barely registering in double-digits in her party’s primary, leaving no doubt that she is under huge threat of losing the nomination even if Arpaio doesn’t run. In the general election, Arpaio leads Attorney General Terry Goddard 51% to 39%, a margin that’s all the more decisive when compared to Goddard’s 40% to 38% edge against Martin and his 44% to 35% lead against Brewer.

An Arizona State University poll also released this week confirmed that the GOP could very well be doomed if Brewer somehow makes it to general election: Goddard crushes her 47% to 28%. The survey also tested the Senate race, finding that McCain would start with a 50% to 41% lead over Napolitano - a surprisingly decisive margin that we can’t just explain by the sample’s GOP bias since the same respondents give Goddard a 21% lead in the gubernatorial race. Given that Democrats have no one nearly as prominent as Napolitano to field, this suggests McCain might not be as vulnerable as thought.

Nevada: Waiting for Goodman

In testing Nevada’s gubernatorial race, The Nevada News Bureau chose to only run one scenario: A 3-way race between Republican Brian Sandoval, Las Vegas Oscar Goodman (as an independent) and Democrat Rory Reid. The result is a disaster for the latter, as he trails both his rivals: Sandoval gets 35%, Goodman 28% and Reid closes the march with 21%. Reid’s results can certainly not be attributed to a deficit in name recognition, so there’s little conclusion to draw other than it’s going to be though for Reid to win the general election no matter who he faces since he has to share the spotlight with his unpopular and embattled father.

But the poll leaves a big question unanswered: What happens if Goodman runs as a Democrat rather than as an independent? I don’t believe any poll has tested that possibility for now, though it would be interesting to see the results. This poll gives an indication as to why the mayor might be looking to run as an independent - 49% of his supporters are Democrats and 36% are Republicans - but it’s hard to draw conclusions when other match-ups were not tested. Of course, Goodman hasn’t even decided to run at all.

What a surprise: Jan Brewer, R.T. Rybak and Roxane Conlin running

Published
by
Taniel
on November 6, 2009
in AZ-Gov, IA-Sen and MN-Gov
. 6 Comments

Over the past two days, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak and attorney Roxane Conlin signaled they would run statewide next year. All of these decisions had come to be expected, but that doesn’t mean they are not important developments in the 2010 landscape.

Iowa emerges as a race to watch

At the beginning of the year, Democrats were hoping that Chuck Grassley would retire. That has not happened, but it looks like the Iowa senator won’t win a sixth term without a fight: Roxane Conlin will reportedly become a Senate candidate in the days ahead.  A formidable figure in Iowa politics, Grassley remains the heavy favorite but Conlin gives Democrats a rare chance to score an upset.

While she hasn’t ran for office since her failed gubernatorial bid in… 1982, she remained in the public eye enough that a recent Research 2000 poll found that she was well-known (67% of respondents had an opinion about her, the majority of them favorable). She could also find it easy to amass a substantial bank account: She is very well connected, she would receive large donations from trial lawyers and she could use some of her considerable fortune. If nothing else, it’s good for Democrats to field a contender who would be in a position to benefit from Grassley’s troubles if anti-incumbent sentiment runs high next year.

Conlin’s run also keeps Grassley accountable to the center whereas he had only been acting lately as if all he had to fear was a conservative primary. Another side benefit for Democrats: It could help Governor Chet Culver’s re-election bid by bringing in another Democratic contender who could help turnout the vote - the major challenge facing all of the party’s candidates next year. In fact, Conlin herself admits that the desire to help Culver is a major reason she is entering the race.

Brewer will seek a full term

When Jan Brewer was elevated to the position of Arizona Governor when Janet Napolitano resigned earlier this year, she probably was not imagining that this could end up lowering her prospects of winning the 2010 gubernatorial race. And yet, running as an incumbent governor in this environment is a much tougher proposition than getting through an open race as the sitting Secretary of State.

In fact, Brewer’s trouble reach far deeper than those of most governors. She has had a lot of trouble imposing herself, especially given the budget stalemate that’s opposed her to the (GOP-controlled) legislature and her approval rating is stuck around 30% - a dismal level that makes it hard to see how she can survive next year. And yet, Brewer has chosen to seek a full term in 2010: She just announced her bid yesterday.

Her decision will surely delight Democrats: It will be tough for Brewer to beat Attorney General Terry Goddard, the Democrats’ probable nominee, but it’s less likely that other Republicans (like Treasurer Dean Martin) enter the race if they need to face an incumbent governor in the Republican primary. For now, Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker is Brewer’s main GOP rival; he should be able to mount a credible campaign, but he certainly can’t give Republicans confidence they’ll field the strongest general election contender possible.

A prominent entry in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race

I could an entire blog just covering every new candidate in Minnesota’s gubernatorial race, but the latest entrant is among the highest profile contenders yet: Just a few days after easily securing a third term with 72% of the vote, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak filed paperwork to seek the DFL’s nomination. Rybak faces a highly competitive primary against prominent politicians like the state Speaker (Margaret Anderson) and a former Senator (Mark Dayton), but his profile ensures that he’ll rise above much of the field.

And yet, Rybak suffered from a failed start to his campaign: Just a day after he e-mailed his supporters to announce a run, the Minnesota Campaign and Finance Disclosure Board ruled that he had used funds from his mayoral campaign for the gubernatorial race, a violation of campaign finance regulations; Minnesota’s Republican Party had filed a complaint. This ruling amounts to little else than a slap on the rest (the board only ordered the gubernatorial committee to reimburse his mayoral committee), but it’s never good for a campaign to see its kickoff marred by such news stories.

Meanwhile, another Midwestern Democratic Mayor is being increasingly pressured to jump in his state’s gubernatorial race: Two weeks after we learned that Barack Obama favored Tom Barrett in Wisconsin, the Milwaukee mayor met with the White House’s political director to discuss a potential run. Don’t forget that, now that Lieutenant Governor Barbara Lawton has dropped out of the race (possibly because of signs from the national establishment), Democrats don’t have much of a choice but to convince Barrett to jump in.

Polls find Deeds and Corzine once again exchanging momentum, Lincoln tanking in Arkansas

Published
by
Taniel
on September 30, 2009
in AR-Sen, AZ-Gov, Gay marriage, NJ-Gov and VA-Gov
. 7 Comments

Every few days, I am changing my mind as to which of the two governorships that are currently being contested Democrats have a better chance of defending. For a while in early September, Creigh Deeds looked so far gone that Jon Corzine’s fortunes looked stronger; then, the former managed to get himself back in the running and recent developments were getting me ready to settle on Virginia. But the narrative has changed once more: Now, it looks that Jon Corzine is in far better shape than Creigh Deeds heading into the campaigns’ 5 final weeks.

This is due to 3 polls released over the past 24 hours. The first is SUSA’s survey finding Bob McDonnell up 14%. I wrote about it last night, raising obvious questions as to whether the poll will turn out to be an outlier. As I pointed out, that poll was the only one since the master’s thesis story broke to have McDonnell leading by more than 7%. Well, we did not have to wait for long to get confirmation that SUSA was on to something: Rasmussen’s latest poll has the Republican leading 51% to 42%.

While Rasmussen is often criticized for finding numbers that look too friendly to the GOP, pointing that out cannot account for the trendline: Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found Deeds within the MoE, trailing by only 2% - a survey launched the narrative of the Democrat’s comeback. What’s perhaps worst for Deeds is that Rasmussen’s poll leaves him no clear path to close the gap: 51% of respondents (an impressive share) say the story of McDonnell’s master thesis is important in terms of their November vote. And yet, despite his remarkable success at making this a huge campaign story, Deeds trails by 9%! What more can he hope to do?

In New Jersey, by contrast, a Quinnipiac poll finds encouraging news for Corzine has received in months: The governor trails 43% to 39% - the smallest deficit he has faced in a Quinnipiac poll since November 2008. His favorability rating remains truly dismal (34/56) but Christie is clearly dipping. Consider this: Excluding Neighborhood Research polls (which are finding a bizarrely high level of undecideds) and Democracy Corps poll (which have had far more friendly results for Corzine than other pollsters), the Republican had not dipped as low as 43% in any poll since April!

As I have repeatedly pointed out, the biggest reason I have trouble envisioning Democrats keeping New Jersey is that Corzine is stuck in the 30s range - and that is again the case in this poll. But here’s the second reason Quinnipiac’s survey is good news for the governor: Chris Daggett reaches 12%, a 3% boost over Quinnipiac’s previous poll. The higher Daggett reaches, the more conceivable it is for Corzine to claim victory with just 39-42% of the vote.

Arkansas: Lincoln trails 4 Republican rivals

Keeping in mind that not all pick-ups are equal in terms of altering the balance of power - if Blanche Lincoln were to lose next year, it wouldn’t prove a particularly consequential blow to her party’s agenda considering her actions this year - let’s turn to a new Rasmussen poll that confirms that we should put her on the list of highly vulnerable incumbents. She trails state Senator Gilbert Baker 47% to 39%, state Senator Kim Hendren 44% to 41%, businessman Tom Cox 43% to 40% and businessman Chris Coleman 43% to 41%.

Any senator who trails all challengers irrespective of their profile, name recognition or experience is clearly facing a massive re-election problem. An important note: Once again, I do not for the life of me understand where Rasmussen gets its name recognition numbers: I refuse to believe that more than 60% of Arkansas have an opinion on Cox, Coleman and Baker. Last month, PPP found that 23% of voters had an opinion of Coleman and 22% of Baker. That sounds much more realistic.

Yet, it apparently has little effect on the match-up numbers: PPP also had Coleman and Baker leading, thus confirming Rasmussen’s finding that Lincoln is so vulnerable as to trail little-known opponents. On the other hand, a mid-September Research 2000 poll found far sunnier numbers for the incumbent, though she was still vulnerable. More polls will be needed to figure out the extent of Lincoln’s vulnerability.

Arizona: Second poll in two weeks finds that Goddard is front-runner

A race we have talked relatively little about is shaping up to be one of the Democrats’ top pick-up opportunities thanks to Attorney General Goddard’s popularity: In a new Rasmussen poll, his 54/38 favorability rating is far superior to Governor Jan Brewer’s 42/54 and former Governor Fife Symington’s 36/54. He leads 42% to 35% against Brewer and 44% to 37% against Symington. Those margins are actually smaller than those found by PPP last week, but they are an undeniable sign of strength for a challenger.

Brewer and Symington are arguably weaker candidates than other potential Republican nominees; Brewer because she has failed to impose herself since being elevated governor in early 2009, Symington because of the corruption scandal that forced him out in the 1990s. But for either of them to be defeated would mean a lower-profile Republican nominee, so Goddard’s name recognition and personal popularity would keep him the front-runner even if the GOP was to get rid of Brewer and Symington.

Maine: Gay marriage finally enjoys lead

Two weeks ago, the first and only poll of Maine’s Question 1 found worrisome news for gay marriage proponents: The “Yes” had a narrow lead. But a new poll conducted by Democracy Corps has far more encouraging numbers: 50% of respondents say they will oppose repealing the gay marriage law while 41% say they’ll vote for it.

The survey’s primary purpose seems to have been to gauge Maine voters’ feelings about their two senators in the context of the health care debate. And it does not look like progressive groups have been successful at turning this blue state against Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins 54% say they’ll probably or definitely vote for Collins when she runs for re-election (versus 32%) while 60% say the same of Snowe. Matched-up with a generic Democrat, Snowe leads 56% to 28%. Since I think few people who follow electoral politics expect Snowe and Collins to ever face much of a challenge - if a sitting congressman could not endanger the weaker of the two in 2008, how could Democrats succeed? - these numbers won’t come as much of a surprise.

Gubernatorial polls: Brewer, Culver, Patrick in trouble while O’Malley’s in control

Published
by
Taniel
on September 24, 2009
in AZ-Gov, IA-Gov, MA-Gov and MD-Gov
. 5 Comments

Arizona: Democrat Terry Goddard looks strong

PPP gives us a rare glance at Arizona’s gubernatorial contest, finding that Democrats are in a very good position to score a pick-up - something we have not said about many new races over the past few months. Governor Jan Brewer, who rose to this position when Barack Obama appointed Janet Napolitano to his Cabinet, is very unpopular: Her dismal 26% to 43% rating is enough to make her one of the most endangered incumbents in the country.

The good news for Democrats is that their probable nominee Attorney General Terry Goddard looks like a formidable contender independently of Brewer’s weakness. Not only does he beat Brewer by a convincing 10% (46% to 36%), he also posts a solid favorability rating (44% to 22%) and has a 45% to 37% lead over Treasurer Dean Martin, who has said he might challenge Brewer in the Republican primary.

PPP’s survey also gives us an answer to a question I asked two weeks ago: Can former Governor Fife Symington have any hope to regain voters’ trust 13 years after being forced to resign due a bank fraud scandal? He might have rebuild his reputation in a court of law - his initial conviction was later overturned by an appeals court - but public option is dead set against him: His favorability rating is catastrophic (17% to 54%) and he is crushed by Goddard 52% to 29%. That tells us all we need to know about his general election viability, and we can only wish the poll had tested whether he had any chance of winning the GOP primary.

All the more admirable in Goddard’s strength is that it’s not like the poll reveals that Democrats are generally in great shape in the state - quite the contrary . In hypothetical match-ups in the 2012 presidential race, PPP finds Obama unable to muster a lead against Sarah Palin (the two are tied at 47%) while he trails Mitt Romney 50% to 43% and Mike Huckabee 49% to 45%. Given that it looked like Obama would have won the state in Arizona had his opponent not come from there, I am somewhat surprised at these results. Democrats also struggle to be competitive in the Senate race, but more on that tomorrow.

Iowa: When an incumbent trails by 20%…

Democrats might be heading towards a pick-up in Arizona, but they are not in hot shape in Iowa, where Governor Chet Culver trails two potential Republican opponents in a Rasmussen poll - one of them by a gigantic margin. There is no doubt that former Governor Terry Branstad would be as formidable a challenger as the GOP can hope for; but it is still shocking to see Branstad leaving Culver 54% to 34%. Culver trails Bob Vander Plaats 43% to 39%, a more acceptable level but one that is still troubling given that Vander Plaats has never looked like the most electable Republican and that Culver still fails to break the 40% mark.

Note that Culver’s rating in this poll - 43% to 50% - is much lower than it was in a recent Selzer & Co poll, which had him at 50% to 38%. I am unable to find polls taken earlier in 2009, though I believe they exist. In any case, we do not have to believe the situation is as bad as Rasmussen suggests to still conclude that Culver is highly vulnerable, especially with Branstad considered likely to run.

Massachusetts: Patrick’s saving grace could be 3-way race

When Treasurer Tim Cahill announced he would run for Governor as an independent, I wrote that one possible scenario was that this could help Deval Patrick. He might be very unpopular, but Massachusetts is blue enough that Patrick can’t be expected to drop under 30%. That puts him closer to a 3-way plurality victory than a 2-way majority victory. A new Suffolk poll, which I believe is the first released since Cahill entered the race, confirms that analysis.

While Patrick’s approval rating is not that terrible (42% to 49%), only 29% of respondents say he deserves to win re-election; 56% say they would prefer someone else. You wouldn’t expect an incumbent with such a dismal re-elect to lead two match-ups by double-digits but that is exactly what Patrick is able to do thanks to the field’s crowded nature. If the Republican nominee is Charlie Baker, Patrick leads 36% to 23% for Cahill and 14% for Baker; if the GOP nominee is Charles Mihos, he leads 36% to 24% for Cahill and 17% for Mihos.

A genuine three-way race is bound to be unstable, as one candidate’s ups and downs can affect the margin between the two other. For instance, Patrick would be in trouble if the GOP nominee ends up collapsing in the low single-digits, letting his supporters move to Cahill’s camp; that’s what happened in Connecticut’s 2006 Senate race (Lieberman-Lamont). Also troubling for Patrick is that Cahill enjoys a strong favorability rating: 35-12 is a good foundation on which to build a statewide race.

NY: Voters are critical of Obama’s intervention, but it doesn’t make them like Paterson

Two new surveys of New York’s gubernatorial race find no surprises. First, Siena has his approval rating at a stunningly low 18%, his re-elect at 14%; he trails Cuomo 66% to 20%, Giuliani 52% to 35% and manages a 39% to 35% lead against Lazio. (Cuomo leads Giuliani by 13%.) Second, Marist released a second poll of the race in as many week, this one conducted in the immediate aftermath of news that Obama had asked Paterson not to run. 62% to 27%, respondents say Obama’s move was wrong; but they also say (25% to 63%) that Paterson should retire. With an approval rating at 17%, Paterson’s path to victory seems as damaged as ever.

Maryland: At least one Governor looks in good position

Here’s one incumbent that does not look to be in a world of hurt. According to a Gonzalez Research poll, Maryland’s Governor Martin O’Malley would beat his predecessor Bob Ehrlich 49% to 38% and RNC Chairman Michael Steele 52% to 37%. Sure, neither margin is that overwhelming but Ehrlich is the only credible candidate the state GOP has to offer (and it’s not looking very likely he’ll run), so if even he trails by single-digits it’s unlikely Republicans will be able to do much against O’Malley. After all, the 50% rule is less relevant in match-ups in which the challenger is a well-known figure whose name recognition is almost equal to that of the incumbent.

In Southwest, two surprising gubernatorial developments

Published
by
Taniel
on September 12, 2009
in AZ-Gov and NV-Gov
. 2 Comments

With most of the week’s electoral attention focused on Massachusetts’ Senate race - the short version: Rep. Ed Markey and former Bush Chief of Staff Andrew Card are not running - it’s easy to miss two surprising developments that could shake up gubernatorial elections in the Southwest.

NV: Buckley exits race, boosting (Rory) Reid’s primary prospects

Jim Gibbons is arguably the country’s most unpopular governor, which makes Nevada’s Democratic nomination particularly valuable. All eyes were on Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, who has served in the legislature since 1994 and is the first woman to hold the Speaker position: Not only was she expected to run, but a recent Mason-Dixon poll showed that she would be heavily favored to win the Democratic nomination.

Yet, Buckley announced yesterday that she would not run for Governor. She cited the impact a campaign would have on her family, particularly on her 10-year old son. While she opened the door to a future political run, it’s hard not to think that it will be hard for her to find as good a time as 2010: Not only is the GOP brand more tarnished in Nevada than in most other states, but Buckley is term-limited out of the legislature next year. There is speculation she might be appointed to a judgeship, however.

Buckley’s exit shakes up the race. The two other contenders who are most often mentioned are Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman and Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid, the son of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Goodman could be a formidable contender, but he is also considering running as an independent, which means that all-but-certain candidate Reid should now be considered the front-runner to win the Democratic nod. That could be troublesome for Democrats.

While any Democrat would be favored to win if they faced Gibbons, the governor is not likely to make it to the November ballot; the Democratic nominee will have to prepare for a highly competitive general election against the likes of Brian Sandoval or Joe Heck. Whatever Rory Reid’s campaign skills and electoral strength, the bottom line is that he is bound to be weighed down by his last name.

If he wins the nomination, father and son would both appear on next year’s general election ballot. The state’s 2010 Democratic ticket would become the Reid ticket. Such a blatant display of dynastic politics would create an uncomfortable situation for any candidate, but it should be particularly damaging to Rory considering Harry’s unpopularity. (It could also undermine the senator’s reelection prospects, though that’s less likely to be a factor since voters have a more defined opinion of him.)

AZ: Symington III hints at return

In September 1997, Arizona’s Republican Governor J. Fife Symington III was forced to resign after being convicted of bank fraud in a massive trial that shook up state politics. Within two years, his conviction had been overturned by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals because the trial judge had dismissed a juror who was leaning toward acquittal and he was pardoned by President Bill Clinton, who he saved from drowning during their college days.

Symington might now have a clean criminal record, but that does not make him the most obvious of Republican candidates in the upcoming gubernatorial race. Yet, Symington floated his name this week, when he told The Arizona Republic that he is “thinking seriously” about the race.

If he were to run, Symington would have to challenge an incumbent Governor: Jan Brewer replaced Janet Napolitano when Obama tapped the latter for his Cabinet. Brewer has won a statewide race on her own name before; that’s not something we can say of all Lieutenant Governors who suddenly become Governor (say, David Paterson) and certainly not of Senators who are suddenly appointed to vacant seats (say, Michael Bennet). Yet, weighed won by a weak approval rating and a grumbling GOP base, she is sure to face a competitive primary: Treasurer Dean Martin, former state Sen. Karen Johnson, Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas are all mulling the race; Rep. Jeffrey Flake could also run.

Symington’s entry would undoubtedly spice things up. Beyond adding a well-known name to the mix, it would inject in the race one of the 1990s most prominent political scandals. Could he ride his name recognition - and potentially the GOP base’s anger at his prosecution - to win the Republican nomination? How would that translate to the general election, where independent voters should be less forgiving of his involvement in an extortion and bank fraud scandal? Given the many options Republicans have, it’s hard to see how they don’t hurt their prospects if they nominate Symington.

Interestingly, the probable Democratic nominee is Symington’s first gubernatorial opponent. In 1990, former Phoenix Mayor Terry Goddard narrowly lost the general election to Symington in a 52% to 48% runoff; four years later, he sought a rematch but failed to win the Democratic nomination. Having since been elected Attorney General, Goddard is preparing for a third gubernatorial run - one in which he could face Symington once more, twenty years after their first encounter.

More gubernatorial withdrawals

Published
by
Taniel
on June 26, 2009
in AZ-Gov, MI-Gov, PA-Gov and TX-Gov
. 3 Comments

Loretta Sanchez and Rick Lazio are not the only ones to come public about their gubernatorial plans this week. Other politicians who were mentioned as potential gubernatorial contenders announced in recent days that they would not run in 2010, in some cases provoking quite a reshuffling of their contest.

Pederson will not mount second statewide run in Arizona

We were introduced to Jim Pederson back in 2006, when he took on Republican Senator John Kyl. Despite spending significant amounts of his own money, the chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party did not manage to ever make the race that competitive; he lost by a respectable 10%. Pederson was now considering challenging seeking the Governor’s office but the road to victory has gotten considerably tougher for Democrats ever since Janet Napolitano resigned to head to Washington, leaving the governorship in the hands of Republican Jan Brewer.

There is no doubt that Brewer will be vulnerable come 2010, but the prospect of taking on yet another incumbent must have been less appealing to Pederson than that of seeking an open seat. On Wednesday, he announced that he would not run for Governor. His comments, which cited other priorities that would prevent him from focusing on a campaign, should also be taken to mean that Pederson will not challenge John McCain. He was not considered a likely candidate in that race, but his candidacy was plausible.

Yet, while no Democrat looks interested in the Senate race, Pederson’s decision will not pose a major problem for the party’s gubernatorial prospects. Attorney General Terry Goddard has said he “intends to run.” Goddard, who lost two gubernatorial bids in 1990 and 1994, has managed to erase the stint of those defeats by convincingly winning two statewide races in 2002 and 2006.

It looks like the main reason Goddard has yet to declare his candidacy is that Arizona law requires state officials to resign from their current office if they intend to seek another one. (Republicans have already been complaining that Goddard has made it clear enough he will run that he should have to resign, forcing the Attorney General to engage in terminological contortions to justify himself.) State Rep. David Bradley has also expressed interest.

A big surprise in Michigan

For the second time of the cycle, a politician everyone expected would seek the GOP’s gubernatorial nomination has decided to take a pass. In April, early front-runner L. Books Patterson pulled out; this week, it was Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land’s turn. Land was believed to be eying the Governor’s Mansion ever since she won her first statewide office in 2002 - after all, the timing was perfect: With Governor Jennifer Granholm and Land scheduled to be term-limited out of their position at the same time, Land would have an open seat race waiting for her just as she’d have to look for another job.

Based on an EPIC-MRA survey released in May, Land’s withdrawal could be a blow to the GOP’s prospects. Of the 3 Republicans tested in the poll, Land performed strongest in the general election, capturing a 1% lead over the probable Democratic nominee. On the other hand, we shouldn’t read too much into those results: Land performed only 2% better than Attorney General Mike Cox and 5% better than Rep. Peter Hoekstra.

In fact, the main reason Democrats could come to celebrate Land’s decision is that it should prove a boost to Hoekstra, arguably the GOP’s weakest general election contender. Land might have endorsed Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, but her exit leaves a critical geographical unbalance. While Bouchard and Cox come from the Detroit suburbs, Hoekstra and Land’s base is in Western Michigan. The congressman can now hope to build decisive enough margins in his base region to clinch the nomination in a three-way race.

That’s if it remains a three-way race, of course. While many Republicans have been looking to get out of the contest, others are still considering jumping in, including state Sen. Tom George, Rep. Candice Miller and Domino’s Pizza CEO David Brandon.

The field gets thinner in two other states

In a lower-profile decision, Texas state Senator Leticia Van De Putte released a statement on Tuesday indicating that she would not seek the Governor’s Mansion. With the GOP heading towards a dramatic clash between Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison, some Democrats have been hoping they’ll get a shot at an upset if the more conservative Perry survives a nasty fight. Yet, the party is still looking for a candidate. With Van De Putte’s decision, former Ambassador Thomas Schieffer remains the only Democratic contender. While Schieffer should prove a strong fundraiser, his shady Democratic credentials and his connections to George W. Bush are understandably holding party activists back from cheering him on.

In Pennsylvania, finally, the gubernatorial race remains wide open as no one has much of an idea what either party’s field will look like. One Democrat who was considered a likely candidate clarified things a bit today: Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham said he would not seek the Governor’s Mansion. Democrats who are still in line to take Ed Rendell’s place include Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato and Auditor General Jack Wagner. The highest-profile decision belongs to a Republican, however: Rep. Jim Gerlach will make up his mind in the weeks ahead.

In Florida and Nevada, new names pop up in statewide races

Published
by
Taniel
on May 30, 2009
in AZ-Gov, FL-Gov and FL-Sen
. 1 Comment

My (very fun) trip has ended and I can get back to blogging at a normal pace. There is certainly a lot of stories I have neglected over the past six days, so let’s start by reviewing four new names that have popped up as potential statewide candidates.

Florida: Corrine Brown opens door to Senate run

For a long time, it looked like Charlie Crist’s entry in the gubernatorial race had scared away all potential contenders on both sides of the aisle. Sure, those who were already in the running might stay in but all other ambitious politicians would either stay put or change their interest to the Governor’s mansion. On the Democratic side, these dynamics confirmed Kendrick Meek as the primary front-runner with Dan Gelber in a credible position.

Well, at least one other Democrat opened the door to joining the fun this week: Rep. Corinne Brown suggested she might seek the Democratic nomination. She touted her “experience” relative to Meek and she also went after Crist. “I just think the state needs more than someone who’s there to talk a great game, smile and take pictures,” she said.

A left-leaning representative who has served in the House since 1993 and who called the 2000 presidential election a coup d’état on the floor of the Senate, Brown was not mentioned as a potential candidate and had shown no sign of considering a Senate run, making her comments a somewhat unexpected development in the Democratic primary.

If she does run, it would set up a competitive primary between two prominent African-American lawmakers - a situation that is rare enough no parallel comes to mind. In fact, it’s hard to envision that a white candidate would not try to take advantage of the primary’s racial dynamics to eke out a victory: Given how much institutional support Meek is assembling, it might be hard for Gelber to win a two-race race - but the situation would change if Brown is also in the running.

Florida: Just when we thought McCollum had cleared the race

It was almost too good to be true for Bill McCollum: After an unbelievably long list of prominent Republicans declined to run for the open gubernatorial race, Florida’s Attorney General looked like he would have the GOP field for himself, coasting to his party’s nomination six years after he lost a bruising senatorial primary.

But it looks like McCollum might have some primary competition after all: Yesterday, state Senator Paula Dockery released a statement indicating her interest in the gubernatorial race. This opens the door to an all-female general election since Democrats look set to nominate a woman. (Note: Florida has never had a female Governor.)

While Dockery has a lower profile than McCollum, she would have a legitimate shot at the nomination. Having served in the state legislature since 1997 (in the House until 2002, in the Senate since then), she has the experience and connections to be taken seriously. In fact, she has been a major player in Tallahassee. Over the past few month, she emerged as a key opponent to a commuter rail plan in Central Florida pushed by Republican leaders and Governor Crist. She was ultimately successful in defeating the CSX-SunRail deal, a blow to the GOP leadership that got Dockery noticed.

Also helping Dockery should be the perception among some Republicans that McCollum’s insider profile and past statewide defeats mean he would not make that strong a candidate. Whether one thinks McCollum is formidable or unelectable should determine whether one believes Dockery’s entry would be good news for the GOP. Another consideration, of course, is that a competitive Republican primary could give Democrat Alex Sink a head start to prepare the general election since Florida’s primaries are held late.

Nevada: Another Republican interested in challenging Reid

The NRSC is growing increasingly desperate in Nevada. The only prominent Republican still considered a potential candidate against Harry Reid is Rep. Dan Heller, who is believed to be eying the gubernatorial race instead. Who should the GOP turn to? In early April, former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle signaled her interest in the race; later, we learned that Republicans were courting a New York banker.

But the GOP’s best bet yet might be state Senator Mark Amodei, who has served in the state legislature since 1997: This is not a name we had heard until now, but Amodei recently revealed his ambitions: “If Dean doesn’t, I’ll consider it,” he said, referring to Dan Heller. This is what we expect from him: Amodei has too low a profile to fight Heller or Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki if either wants the Republican nomination; yet, he is experienced enough in a chamber with only 21 members to hope to mount a competitive run.

The problem for Republicans is that their hope of challenging Reid are evaporating with every week they pass without a prominent challenger. As Democrats discovered in 2008, defeating a (necessarily well-funded) Senate leader is no small feat: a campaign needs to be thought out months in advance, a challenger needs to be impecably prepared and lots of funds need to be raised. All of this cannot be improvised at the last minute. If second-tier Republicans like Amodei are saying they will wait for Heller to announce his decision and for the Krolicki indictement to resolve itself, who knows when they will make up their own mind - all of this while Reid continues to stockpile millions?

The electoral consequences of Obama’s Cabinet picks

Published
by
Taniel
on December 21, 2008
in AL-07, AZ-Gov, CA-32, CO-03, IL-05, KS-Gov, KS-Sen, MA-Sen, ME-Sen, MI-Gov, MN-07, NJ-Gov, NM-Sen, NY-Sen, RI-Sen, SD-AL, SD-Sen and TX-17
. 6 Comments

Ever since Barack Obama’s election, there has been intense speculation surrounding his Cabinet positions. A lot of it has concerned the electoral consequences of tapping Governors, Senators and House members: Would the seat switch parties, who would take over, and what would it mean for the 2010 landscape?

Now that Obama has filled his Cabinet, it is time to offer is a rundown of elected officials who were nominated, those who were rumored but did not make the cut - and what all of this means to the political landscape.

—

Those who were tapped

  • Hillary Clinton, New York

The unexpected news that Hillary Clinton was being considered for a Secretary of State position captivated the political class throughout November. The deed was finally consummated, capping a remarkable year for Hillary and Barack. Clinton’s nomination also opened a vacancy in one of the country’s largest and most Democratic state, focused everyone’s attention on Governor David Paterson and subsequently on Caroline Kennedy, added a Senate race to the 2010 line-up and provided the GOP a glimmer of hope of picking-up a seat.

  • Tom Dashle, South Dakota

Some Democrats dreamed of Dashle challenging John Thune to a Senate rematch in 2010 - a scenario that is now foreclosed by Dashle’s appointment as HHS Secretary. However, it was always very unlikely that Dashle would jump in the race, so Obama’s pick changed very little electorally.

  • Rahm Emanuel, IL-05

IL-05 is a Chicago-based district that is heavily Democratic. Such an open seat can only mean one thing: A chaotic intra-party battle between dozens of city-level Democrats who have been waiting for years to move up the ladder, with no possibility that a Republican even dream about winning the seat.

  • Janet Napolitano, Arizona

Janet Napolitano’s appointment to the Homeland Security Department is Obama’s one nomination that has already cost Democrats a seat. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer will take over as the state’s Governor. Given that Brewer was already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat in 2010 (Napolitano would not have been able to run due to term limit laws), it seems a safe bet to say that she will run now that she can do so as an incumbent. This gives Republicans the clear upper hand in what was expected to be one of the most competitive open seats of 2010.

  • Bill Richardson, New Mexico

Richardson’s Cabinet prospects seemed to end with Hillary Clinton’s nomination to Foggy Bottom, but the New Mexico Governor will be reborn as Obama’s Secretary of Commerce. A Democrat, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, will take over and will thus have the upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. Due to term-limits, Richardson was not allowed to run for re-election which means that the seat would have been open. But Denish, who was already considered a likely candidate before Richardon’s nomination, can now run as an incumbent.

  • Ken Salazar, Colorado

Ken Salazar’s nomination to the Interior Department created the fourth Senate vacancy due to Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic Governor Bill Ritter will choose Salazar’s successor, and Democrats have a deep enough bench in Colorado that Ritter has plenty of contenders to choose from. (I summarized the politics of this appointment two days ago.) Salazar’s departure from the Senate gives an opening to Republicans, but two factors minimize its impact. First, Salazar was up for re-election in 2010, so this will not add an additional seat for Democrats to defend. Second, Salazar was not safe to start with.

  • Hilda Solis, CA-32

Rep. Solis’s appointment as Secretary of Labor was unexpected, but the special election that will be triggered after Solis’s confirmation won’t give the DCCC many headaches: CA-32 is a very Democratic district that gave John Kerry 62% of the vote in 2004.

  • Tom Vilsack, Iowa

Vilsack’s unexpected nomination as Secretary of Agriculture has one immediate electoral consequence: we are now sure that Vilsack will not run for Senate in 2010. Vilsack might have been the only Democrat strong enough to credibly challenge Senator Chuck Grassley. Vilsack’s nomination might also make it more likely that Grassley run for re-election since he no longer has to worry about spending two grueling years on the campaign trail. All of this said, a Vilsack candidacy was only a possibility, and many considered it unlikely.

—

Those who were not:

  • Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, Maine

Some Democrats were pushing the idea of tapping one of Maine’s two moderate Senators as one of the Republican Cabinet members Obama had promised in order to allow Maine’s Democratic Governor to appoint their (Democratic) successor.

  • John Corzine, New Jersey

After Larry Summer’s name faded in mid-November, John Corzine was mentioned as a possible Secretary of the Treasury. This would have elevated State Senate President Richard Codey as acting Governor, a position he already occupied after Jim McGreevey’s resignation in 2004. It would also have meant a far more entertaining gubernatorial race in 2009.

  • Arthur Davis, AL-07

Rep. Davis is said to have statewide ambitions - perhaps as early as 2010 - so this seat could soon be open, but Democrats have little to worry about: This is a heavily Democratic and African-American district that gave Kerry 64% of the vote in 2004.

  • Chet Edwards, TX-17

First mentioned as a vice-presidential contender over the summer, Edwards saw his name back in the mix during Obama’s transition efforts. Edwards represents a heavily Republican district, and it would have been very difficult to envision Democrats holding on to his seat in a special election had Edwards joined Obama’s Cabinet.

  • Jennifer Granholm, Michigan

Michigan’s Governor was mentioned as a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Energy and Secretary of Labor. Her appointment would have elevated Democrat John Cherry in the Governor’s position and given the Democratic Party the early upper-hand in the 2010 gubernatorial election. As it stands now, Granholm is term-limited and the race will be one of the country’s most competitive open seats.

  • Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota

Rep. Stephanie Herseth was mentioned as one of the finalists for the Secretary of Agriculture positions, and her appointment would have been a nightmare for House Democrats. South Dakota remains a Republican enough state that the GOP would have had a great shot at reclaiming the seat in a spring special election. This could have consequences down the line for Tim Johnson’s Senate succession.

  • John Kerry, Massachusetts

The former presidential candidate was rumored to be the most likely to be picked as Secretary of State and Massachusetts Democrats were already preparing for a 2009 special election (there is no gubernatorial appointment in the state). But Hillary Clinton’s unexpected emergence thwarted Kerry’s hopes - and those of the hundreds of Massachusetts Democrats who have been waiting for decades for Senate and/or House seats to open up.

  • Colin Peterson, MN-07

Rumored to have been on the short list for Secretary of Agriculture alongside Rep. Herseth, Peterson’s appointment would have triggered a difficult special election for Democrats. Now Chairman of the House’s Agriculture Committee, Peterson is entrenched and senior enough that he can keep his seat blue, but MN-07 is a Republican-leaning district that gave George Bush big winning margins and that narrowly went for John McCain this year.

  • Jack Reed, Rhode Island

Just like Chet Edwards, Jack Reed made a strong apparition in the summer’s veepstakes, and his name was mentioned as a possible Secretary of State. One reason his prospects might have been thwarted is that Rhode Island’s Governor is a Republican, so a Reed appointment would have resulted in an additional GOP Senator.

  • John Salazar, CO-03

Salazar’s name was often mentioned as Secretary of Interior but his brother - Senator Ken Salazar - ended up getting the nod. This is a relief for House Democrats, as CO-03 is a Republican-leaning district that would have been tough to defend in a special election. (That said, we might still have a vacancy in CO-03 since John is on the list of Democrats who could be appointed to Ken’s Senate seat.)

  • Kathleen Sebelius, Kansas

The Kansas Governor seemed certain to land in Obama’s Cabinet. She had been on his vice-presidential short list and was considered a top contender for a number of positions, including Secretary of Labor. Her statement withdrawing her name from Cabinet considerations was thus one of the biggest surprises of this transition period. (It is of course unclear whether Sebelius issued the statement because she genuinely wanted to help Kansas through the economic crisis or because she had already been told she was unlikely to get an appointment.)

In any case, her withdrawal preserves the governorship in Democratic hands (the next-in-line is a Republican); it could have a huge impact on the upcoming open Senate race. Democrats have not won a Senate race in this state since 1936, and Sebelius is probably the only Democrat who stands a chance. A Cabinet appointment would have barred her from running and would have guaranteed that the Senate race remain in Republican hands.

Arizona Senate seat looks safer for GOP, governor’s mansion could switch parties

Published
by
Taniel
on November 20, 2008
in AZ-Gov and AZ-Sen
. 4 Comments

We might still be in November 2008, but some of our most pressing questions concerning the 2010 midterms are already being answered. That is particularly the case in Arizona, where John McCain is up for re-election in two years.

Democrats would be well-placed to pick-up the seat if McCain decided to retire. Alternatively, they could catapult Arizona into the top-tier of their Senate opportunities if term-limited Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano ran against McCain. Over the past 48 hours, however, both of these possibilities have become highly improbable, strengthening the GOP’s hand in this important Senate seat.

First, the Associated Press reported that McCain had decided to run for a fifth term and to prepare the preliminary steps of his candidacy. In particular, he is planning to relaunch his leadership PAC, a move that would make little sense if McCain did not intend to stay active in electoral politics. (Of course, there is plenty of time for McCain to change his mind. It has only been two weeks since he lost the presidential election, and there is no telling how he will adjust to life in the Senate.)

Meanwhile, Napolitano is likely to be heading to Washington. She had long been rumored for a Cabinet Post, but most of the speculation focused on Attorney General, a post that is reportedly going to Eric Holder. Now, Politico is reporting that Napolitano will be tapped for Homeland Security Secretary. If that is confirmed, she would hvae to resign from her gubernatorial job and most probably forgo any senatorial prospects for 2010.

This is not to say that another Democrat could not make the race competitive. Over the past year, McCain exhibited some stunning vulnerabilities in his home state. First, his primary victory on Super Tuesday was unexpectedly tight, and he failed to cross 50%. Second, he never pulled away in the general election, even getting a scare in the final week as polls showed Obama closing in within the margin of error. While McCain ended up winning Arizona by 9%, he was forced to to schedule a campaign event on November 3rd - surely not the way his staffers were envisioning closing the campaign.

Yet, it is unclear what Democrats would take the risk of facing McCain, especially since the gubernatorial election is a far more promising bet for ambitious Democrats looking to move up. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, first elected in 2006, is mentioned as a possibility but she has yet to build a bigger profile and would she give up her relatively comfortable House seat for a dangerous statewide run?

The other major consequence of a Napolitano tap, of course, would be to throw Arizona’s governorship in the hands of the GOP. Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer would take over. Given that Brewer is already mentioned as a possible contender for an open seat, it seems a safe bet to say that she would run for re-election if she becomes the incumbent - thus making it much more difficult for Democrats to win the seat in 2010.

The state is poised to gain House seats after the next census, which means that Arizona’s redistricting will be extremely important. Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and Democrats would have no seat at the redistricting table if Republicans also hold the governor’s mansion after 2010. (Important correction: This last paragraph was wrong. As a commenter points out, Arizona is one of the states where redistricting is done by an independent commission ever since voters approved a proposition in 2000.)

Obama’s transition and the 2010 landscape

Published
by
Taniel
on November 14, 2008
in AZ-Gov, AZ-Sen, DE-Sen, IL-Sen, KS-Sen, MT-Gov, NM-Gov, NY-Sen, PA-Gov and TX-17
. 5 Comments

That the party that holds the White House traditionally suffers losses in midterm elections is generally attributed to voters’ desire to send a message to the incumbent Administration and their alleged preference for divided government. But Obama’s transition points to another factor in midterm losses: A new president draws a number of his party’s star figures to Washington, making it more difficult for the DSCC and DCCC to recruit down-the-line and opening up seats to potentially dangerous special elections.

This is most obvious in the Illinois and Delaware elections that will be held in 2010. Both are Democratic states, but Republicans have an outside shot in getting either of them competitive, particularly if the governors appoint place-holders who do not run for re-election in two years and if the GOP get very lucky recruitment-wise (for instance if Delaware Rep. Castle decides to run for Senate, an unlikely but plausible scenario).

Other special elections could take place in Massachusetts or New York if either John Kerry or Hillary Clinton (who has become the buzz of the day) are nominated as Secretary of State. I already discussed the situation in Massachusetts earlier this week. In New York, Gov. Paterson would get to appoint Clinton’s successor, and there is a remarkably deep bench in the Empire State, starting with Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, a long list of ambitious House representatives (for instance Nita Lowey and Anthony Weiner) or former Spitzer foe Tom Suozzi.

In both states, it is difficult to see which Republican could force Democrats to play defense - but all of these special elections will only increase the number of Senate seats Democrats have to defend.

The DSCC could be further frustrated if Obama taps Govs. Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sebelius. Both are term-limited and cannot run again in 2010, and both are mentioned as strong contenders for Senate seats that year. In Arizona, a recent Research 2000 poll showed Napolitano defeated John McCain and its difficult to see many other Democrats with the potential to defeat the former presidential candidate. In Kansas, Senator Sam Brownback has already announced that he will retire, but this is a conservative a state in which Democrats have a small bench. It is difficult to see anyone but Sebelius having a shot at the seat.

The most direct consequence on Senate numbers, however, would come if Obama appoints Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, another name who is mentioned as a possible Cabinet member. The Rhode Island Governor is a Republican, which would lead the GOP to gain a seat in the unlikeliest of states. Obama could compensate that by tapping Maine’s Republican Senator Olympia Snowe, who is rumored to be in contention for Commerce Secretary and who would be replaced by a Democratic Governor.

At the House level, Obama’s decision to tap Rahm Emanuel has also provoked a lot of commotion in IL-05, but there is no possibility whatsoever that the seat becomes competitive. The Democratic primary will essentially be the general election, which is why there are more than a dozen credible candidates who are now jostling for support. But the situation would be very different in Texas if Chet Edwards (who, you will remember, made a last-minute appearance in the veepstakes) joins the Cabinet. Edwards represents a heavily Republican seat, and the GOP would be favored to reclaim that seat.

At the gubernatorial level, a number of appointments could result in Republican gains. Of the four Democratic governors whose name is most often mentioned, only Kathleen Sebelius has a Democratic lieutenant. Cabinet taps for Pennsylvania’s Ed Rendell, Montana’s Brian Schweizer and Arizona’s Janet Napolitano would all lead to Republican lieutenant governors or secretary of states taking over the governor’s mansion - and positioning themselves to keep the job in 2010.

In Arizona, for instance, secretary of State Jan Brewer (there is no LG in this state) is already mentioned as a possible contender in 2010’s open gubernatorial race; a Napolitano resignation would allow her to run as the incumbent. Tapping New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, however, could have the opposite effect. Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, a Democrat, is virtually certain to run for Richardson’s job in 2010 (the incumbent is term-limited), and she would get a head start in keeping the seat in Democratic hands if Richardson moved to Washington.

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